Cr Pr 2-2 (5-99) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 12, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Winter Wheat Production Down 14 Percent Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.61 billion bushels, down 14 percent from 1998. All classes of winter are down from the previous estimate with SRW showing the smallest percentage drop. Based on conditions around May 1, the U.S. yield is forecast at 44.4 bushels per acre, 2.5 bushels less than last year's record high. Grain area totals 36.3 million acres, down 9 percent from last season. All oranges production forecast for 1998-99 is 9.84 million tons, down 1 percent from last month's forecast and down 28 percent from last year's record large crop of 13.7 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast is 188 million boxes (8.46 million tons), 1 percent below the April forecast and 23 percent less than the record large 244 million boxes (11.0 million tons) utilized last season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 112 million boxes (5.04 million tons), unchanged from April and 20 percent below last season. Florida's Valencia forecast of 76.0 million boxes (3.42 million tons) is 3 percent less than the previous forecast and 27 percent lower than last season's utilization. All orange production in Texas is forecast at 1.47 million boxes (62,000 tons), up 2 percent from last month's forecast. The Texas early and midseason orange forecast remained unchanged at 1.30 million boxes (55,000 tons), but the Valencia forecast was increased 21 percent from April to 170,000 boxes (7,000 tons). California's all orange production forecast of 34.0 million boxes (1.28 million tons) is carried forward from April and is down 51 percent from the 1997-98 utilization of 69.0 million boxes (2.59 million tons). Arizona's all orange production forecast of 1.20 million boxes (45,000 tons) is also carried forward from April. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 1998-99 season is forecast at a record high 1.64 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up from the April forecast of 1.63 gallons per box. The forecast projects the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. Projected average yield for early and midseason varieties is final at a record high 1.58 gallons per box. Valencias are projected to yield a record high 1.75 gallons per box, up from 1.72 gallons last month. This is the first May 1 peach forecast since 1986 and includes only California. The 1999 peach crop in California is forecast at 1.79 billion pounds, up 2 percent from last year but 5 percent below the 1997 crop. Bearing acreage is estimated at 66,800 acres, up less than 1 percent from last year and 1 percent above 1997. In contrast to last season, there has been an adequate amount of chilling hours over the winter season which should lead to increased production. The California Freestone crop is forecast at 740 million pounds, up 5 percent from last year. Freestone bearing acreage is estimated at 37,000 acres, up 2 percent from 1998 and up 5 percent from 1997. Temperatures have been on the cool side most of the spring and crop development is running behind normal due to the cool weather. Some frost damage has been reported in several areas. The California Clingstone crop is forecast at 1,050 million pounds, up slightly from last year. Clingstone bearing acreage is estimated at 29,800 acres, down 2 percent from 1998 and 4 percent below 1997. Frost damage in Yuba and Sutter counties appears to have been more prevalent than earlier reports indicated. Peach Rust continues to be a problem for some growers due to early spring rains. This report was approved on May 12, 1999. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Richard E. Rominger Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Almonds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Avocados . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Bananas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Cotton - Boll Counts and Harvesting Loss . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Fruit, Citrus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Guavas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Hay Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Peaches. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Potatoes, Spring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Taro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Tobacco by Class and Type. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Tobacco by States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Tobacco - Farm Marketings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Wheat, Durum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Wheat, by Class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Wheat, Winter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998 and Forecasted May 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Planted : Harvested : Yield : Production State :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 Acres ------- --- Bushels --- --- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 115 85 70 42.0 47.0 3,570 3,290 AZ : 10 8 10 90.0 85.0 720 850 AR : 910 900 830 51.0 53.0 45,900 43,990 CA : 500 380 390 60.0 70.0 22,800 27,300 CO : 2,600 2,550 2,400 39.0 38.0 99,450 91,200 DE : 75 73 73 51.0 58.0 3,723 4,234 FL : 10 13 9 43.0 40.0 559 360 GA : 300 240 230 43.0 48.0 10,320 11,040 ID : 760 770 710 82.0 77.0 63,140 54,670 IL : 1,050 1,200 1,020 48.0 52.0 57,600 53,040 IN : 550 650 510 55.0 57.0 35,750 29,070 IA : 30 32 25 40.0 43.0 1,280 1,075 KS : 10,000 10,100 9,500 49.0 43.0 494,900 408,500 KY : 650 550 470 45.0 54.0 24,750 25,380 LA : 120 90 110 44.0 43.0 3,960 4,730 MD : 215 215 205 50.0 55.0 10,750 11,275 MI : 620 570 600 54.0 54.0 30,780 32,400 MN : 65 57 63 27.0 28.0 1,539 1,764 MS : 170 150 155 45.0 46.0 6,750 7,130 MO : 1,020 1,250 950 46.0 48.0 57,500 45,600 MT : 1,050 1,250 1,000 39.0 40.0 48,750 40,000 NE : 2,000 1,800 1,900 46.0 40.0 82,800 76,000 NV : 11 6 10 100.0 90.0 600 900 NJ : 42 44 32 52.0 54.0 2,288 1,728 NM : 445 265 265 30.0 30.0 7,950 7,950 NY : 120 130 115 54.0 56.0 7,020 6,440 NC : 650 680 600 41.0 46.0 27,880 27,600 ND : 50 60 48 35.0 32.0 2,100 1,536 OH : 1,050 1,160 1,030 64.0 61.0 74,240 62,830 OK : 6,400 5,100 4,500 39.0 34.0 198,900 153,000 OR : 710 790 640 67.0 59.0 52,930 37,760 PA : 210 190 205 51.0 52.0 9,690 10,660 SC : 225 240 215 32.0 43.0 7,680 9,245 SD : 1,300 1,420 1,260 43.0 42.0 61,060 52,920 TN : 520 370 300 41.0 47.0 15,170 14,100 TX : 6,200 3,900 3,400 35.0 31.0 136,500 105,400 UT : 150 150 145 50.0 50.0 7,500 7,250 VA : 280 245 250 45.0 58.0 11,025 14,500 WA : 1,900 2,100 1,800 65.0 64.0 136,500 115,200 WV : 11 8 8 57.0 54.0 456 432 WI : 125 135 120 55.0 57.0 7,425 6,840 WY : 180 200 170 32.0 33.0 6,400 5,610 : US : 43,399 40,126 36,343 46.9 44.4 1,880,605 1,614,799 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted May 1, 1999 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --- Bushels -- ------ 1,000 Bushels ------ : AZ : 144 75 105.0 95.0 8,010 15,120 7,125 CA : 175 105 90.0 95.0 13,680 15,750 9,975 MN : 5 37.0 180 185 MT : 430 28.0 7,540 12,040 ND : 2,950 33.0 57,860 97,350 SD : 24 26.0 513 624 : US : 3,728 37.8 87,783 141,069 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Area harvested for U.S. and northern States will be published in "Acreage" released June 30, 1999. Yield and production will be published in "Crop Production" released July 12, 1999. Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted May 1, 1999 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Winter : Spring : :-------------------------------------------------------------: Year : Hard : Soft : : Hard : : : Total : Red : Red : White : Red : White : Durum : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Bushels : 1997 :1,098,303 471,987 275,238 491,324 56,831 87,783 2,481,466 1998 :1,182,092 442,639 255,874 486,781 41,928 141,069 2,550,383 1999 : 989,274 410,675 214,850 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available for all wheat producing States. Unless unusual situations dictate, the previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season. Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States, December 1 and May 1, 1996-99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dec 1 : May 1 State :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : AL : 1,489 1,646 1,213 193 191 141 AZ : 82 171 177 28 34 28 AR : 1,888 2,075 1,900 236 272 260 CA : 2,594 1,598 3,246 160 420 406 CO : 2,006 2,133 2,807 209 616 966 CT : 97 69 77 13 16 13 DE : 11 7 18 6 5 8 FL : 437 436 357 31 65 27 GA : 924 1,045 1,000 302 203 209 ID : 2,285 2,743 3,329 286 520 777 IL : 1,258 1,327 2,100 286 474 543 IN : 1,131 1,213 1,775 162 327 350 IA : 3,500 3,374 4,500 715 623 1,050 KS : 5,600 5,609 6,500 841 889 1,525 KY : 4,334 3,615 4,695 627 603 913 LA : 502 668 290 126 103 58 ME : 202 152 196 57 25 56 MD : 433 381 333 84 55 76 MA : 108 92 101 31 17 40 MI : 2,514 1,993 2,093 460 414 556 MN : 4,018 3,647 5,261 540 640 1,493 MS : 1,620 1,530 1,500 160 198 200 MO : 6,470 6,239 6,933 872 881 1,387 MT : 4,674 5,042 4,568 492 1,151 1,104 NE : 5,063 4,549 5,170 968 1,222 1,306 NV : 758 708 857 61 151 233 NH : 70 49 72 12 9 17 NJ : 92 138 121 27 20 15 NM : 546 479 450 74 165 170 NY : 2,254 1,998 1,990 555 344 435 NC : 1,160 1,162 1,189 137 152 163 ND : 4,777 4,069 4,064 675 744 545 OH : 2,074 2,387 2,558 173 616 581 OK : 4,397 4,444 3,042 790 919 507 OR : 2,108 1,600 2,159 97 621 135 PA : 2,613 2,299 2,800 600 452 730 RI : 6 9 12 1 1 2 SC : 308 410 415 101 82 96 SD : 8,530 7,888 9,500 1,570 2,031 2,000 TN : 3,049 3,184 3,175 419 555 635 TX : 6,252 8,764 5,496 1,400 2,191 1,450 UT : 1,327 1,658 1,695 302 435 485 VT : 330 261 328 86 73 116 VA : 2,666 1,591 1,693 622 250 417 WA : 1,162 1,295 1,663 283 308 410 WV : 895 848 949 117 110 150 WI : 4,600 4,320 5,100 1,150 1,271 1,400 WY : 1,965 2,129 2,372 287 363 611 : US : 105,179 103,044 111,839 17,424 21,827 24,795 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1996-97, 1997-98 and Forecasted May 1, 1999 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1996-97 : 1997-98 : 1998-99 : 1996-97 : 1997-98 : 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 400 350 550 15 13 21 CA 4/ : 40,000 44,000 17,000 1,500 1,650 638 FL : 134,200 140,000 112,000 6,039 6,300 5,040 TX : 1,300 1,350 1,300 55 57 55 US : 175,900 185,700 130,850 7,609 8,020 5,754 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 600 650 650 23 25 24 CA 4/ : 24,000 25,000 17,000 900 938 638 FL : 92,000 104,000 76,000 4,140 4,680 3,420 TX : 120 175 170 5 7 7 US : 116,720 129,825 93,820 5,068 5,650 4,089 All : AZ 4/ : 1,000 1,000 1,200 38 38 45 CA 4/ : 64,000 69,000 34,000 2,400 2,588 1,276 FL : 226,200 244,000 188,000 10,179 10,980 8,460 TX : 1,420 1,525 1,470 60 64 62 US : 292,620 315,525 224,670 12,677 13,670 9,843 Temples : FL : 2,400 2,250 1,800 108 101 81 Grapefruit : White Seedless : FL 5/ : 23,500 18,300 18,000 999 777 765 Colored Seedless : FL 6/ : 31,400 30,600 29,500 1,334 1,301 1,254 Other : FL : 900 650 600 38 28 26 All : AZ 4/ : 900 800 700 30 27 23 CA 4/ : 8,200 9,000 8,500 275 301 285 FL 5/ 6/ : 55,800 49,550 48,100 2,371 2,106 2,045 TX : 5,300 4,800 5,600 212 192 224 US : 70,200 64,150 62,900 2,888 2,626 2,577 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 7/ : 550 600 900 21 23 34 CA 4/ 7/ : 2,600 2,400 1,700 98 90 64 FL : 6,300 5,200 4,950 299 247 235 US : 9,450 8,200 7,550 418 360 333 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 2,600 2,600 3,500 99 99 133 CA : 22,600 22,000 18,000 859 836 684 US : 25,200 24,600 21,500 958 935 817 Tangelos : FL : 3,950 2,850 2,550 178 128 115 K-Early Citrus : FL : 150 40 80 7 2 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5/ Excludes White Seedless economic abandonment of 3,000,000 boxes in 1996-97 and 5,000,000 boxes in 1997-98. 6/ Excludes Colored Seedless economic abandonment of 3,000,000 boxes in 1996-97 and 1,000,000 boxes in 1997-98. 7/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Spring Potatoes: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted May 1, 1999 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Cwt --- -------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : AL : 1.7 1.6 130 175 272 221 280 AZ : 8.1 9.4 282 290 1,820 2,284 2,726 CA : 18.5 19.5 335 365 8,073 6,198 7,118 FL : 34.5 29.0 213 261 7,150 7,358 7,560 Hastings : 24.5 22.0 235 280 5,258 5,758 6,160 Other FL : 10.0 7.0 160 200 1,892 1,600 1,400 NC : 17.5 16.5 190 195 3,287 3,325 3,218 TX : 10.3 9.8 170 235 1,697 1,751 2,303 : US : 90.6 85.8 233 270 22,299 21,137 23,205 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Peaches: Total Production by Crop, California, 1997-1998 and Forecasted May 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds : Freestone : 739.0 707.3 740.0 : Clingstone 1/ : 1,148.0 1,044.2 1,050.0 : Total : 1,887.0 1,751.5 1,790.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ CA Clingstone is over-the-scale tonnage and includes culls and cannery diversions. Almonds (shelled basis): Utilized Production, California, 1997-98 and Forecasted May 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds : CA : 759,000 520,000 760,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Avocados: Bearing Acreage, Yield, Production, Price, and Value, by State and United States, 1997-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Bearing : Yield : Production : Utilization Year : Acreage : per :----------------------------------------------- : 1/ : Acre : Total : Utilized : Fresh : Processed -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Acres ------------------------ Tons ------------------------ : CA : 1997-98 : 59,900 2.57 154,000 154,000 152,500 1,500 1998-99 : 59,400 2.04 121,000 121,000 119,300 1,700 FL : 1997-98 : 5,900 4.07 24,000 24,000 24,000 1998-99 : 6,000 3.83 23,000 23,000 23,000 HI : 1997-98 : 250 1.00 250 250 250 1998-99 : 240 1.04 250 250 250 US : 1997-98 : 66,050 2.70 178,250 178,250 176,750 1,500 1998-99 : 65,640 2.20 144,250 144,250 142,550 1,700 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Price per Ton : Value of Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Fresh :Processed: All : Fresh : Processed : All :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- Dollars ---------- -------- 1,000 Dollars -------- : CA : 1997-98 : 1,720.00 782.00 1,710.00 262,300 1,173 263,473 1998-99 : 1,640.00 597.00 1,630.00 195,652 1,015 196,667 FL : 1997-98 : 584.00 584.00 14,016 14,016 1998-99 : 716.00 716.00 16,468 16,468 HI : 1997-98 : 1,060.00 1,060.00 265 265 1998-99 : 1,040.00 1,040.00 260 260 US : 1997-98 : 1,560.00 782.00 1,560.00 276,581 1,173 277,754 1998-99 : 1,490.00 597.00 1,480.00 212,380 1,015 213,395 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Bearing acreage estimates are based on periodic orchard inventory surveys. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Mar : 3,205 3,735 1,750 2,110 2,845 2,830 Apr : 3,205 3,750 1,775 2,150 3,375 3,085 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bananas, Guavas, Papayas, and Taro: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, Hawaii, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- 1,000 Pounds 1,000 Pounds : Bananas 1/ 2: 950 1,420 14.4 14.8 13,700 21,000 Guavas 2/ : 730 710 21.8 20.6 15,900 14,600 Papayas 1/ 2: 1,985 2,120 19.5 18.8 38,800 39,900 Taro 1/ 3/ : 450 490 5,500 6,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1998 revised. 2/ Only utilized production is estimated. 3/ Acreage is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Yield is not estimated. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, Production, Price, and Value by State and United States, 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Acres ------ ---- Pounds --- ----- 1,000 Pounds ---- : CT : 2,545 2,815 1,622 1,519 4,128 4,276 FL : 7,300 6,800 2,610 2,515 19,053 17,102 GA : 43,000 41,000 2,075 2,200 89,225 90,200 IN : 8,900 8,500 2,100 2,000 18,690 17,000 KY : 250,500 226,260 1,988 1,961 497,928 443,628 MD : 8,000 6,500 1,500 1,400 12,000 9,100 MA : 1,175 1,265 1,628 1,413 1,913 1,788 MO : 3,000 2,700 2,345 2,130 7,035 5,751 NC : 321,400 251,100 2,275 2,197 731,199 551,730 OH : 11,400 9,800 1,950 1,830 22,230 17,934 PA : 8,100 7,800 2,100 2,015 17,020 15,720 SC : 54,000 45,000 2,340 2,050 126,360 92,250 TN : 59,480 59,415 1,922 1,870 114,292 111,100 VA : 53,080 45,000 2,215 2,131 117,576 95,898 WV : 1,800 1,600 1,700 1,350 3,060 2,160 WI : 2,550 2,100 2,231 1,687 5,690 3,542 : US : 836,230 717,655 2,137 2,061 1,787,399 1,479,179 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Price : Value of : per Pound : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Dollars ------- ------ 1,000 Dollars ------ : CT 2/ : 6.000 5.400 13,884 12,398 FL : 1.721 1.697 32,790 29,022 GA : 1.712 1.707 152,753 153,971 IN : 1.870 1.897 34,950 32,249 KY : 1.903 1.917 947,528 850,470 MD : 1.720 1.630 20,640 14,833 MA 2/ : 9.500 5.670 12,569 7,581 MO : 1.895 1.905 13,331 10,956 NC : 1.720 1.771 1,257,705 977,267 OH : 1.869 1.904 41,548 34,146 PA : 1.490 1.101 25,360 17,301 SC : 1.735 1.711 219,235 157,840 TN : 1.952 1.963 223,092 218,097 VA : 1.765 1.816 207,479 174,193 WV : 1.878 1.915 5,747 4,136 WI : 1.505 1.497 8,565 5,304 : US : 1.802 1.828 3,217,176 2,699,764 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1998 revised. 2/ CT and MA type 61 price and value not published to avoid disclosure; not included in U.S. total. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1997 - 1998 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- --- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 88,000 69,000 2,070 2,285 182,160 157,665 VA : 41,000 33,000 2,315 2,220 94,915 73,260 US : 129,000 102,000 2,148 2,264 277,075 230,925 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 185,000 143,000 2,365 2,240 437,525 320,320 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 40,000 31,000 2,455 2,000 98,200 62,000 SC : 54,000 45,000 2,340 2,050 126,360 92,250 US : 94,000 76,000 2,389 2,030 224,560 154,250 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 7,300 6,800 2,610 2,515 19,053 17,102 GA : 43,000 41,000 2,075 2,200 89,225 90,200 US : 50,300 47,800 2,153 2,245 108,278 107,302 Total 11-14 : 458,300 368,800 2,285 2,204 1,047,438 812,797 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 1,200 1,500 1,640 1,560 1,968 2,340 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 3,750 3,850 2,560 2,315 9,600 8,913 TN : 7,400 7,300 2,480 2,330 18,352 17,009 US : 11,150 11,150 2,507 2,325 27,952 25,922 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 3,600 3,600 2,970 2,805 10,692 10,098 TN : 600 590 2,750 2,500 1,650 1,475 US : 4,200 4,190 2,939 2,762 12,342 11,573 Total 21-23 : 16,550 16,840 2,554 2,365 42,262 39,835 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 8,900 8,500 2,100 2,000 18,690 17,000 KY : 240,000 215,000 1,960 1,935 470,400 416,025 MO : 3,000 2,700 2,345 2,130 7,035 5,751 NC : 8,400 8,100 1,585 1,450 13,314 11,745 OH : 11,400 9,800 1,950 1,830 22,230 17,934 TN : 51,000 51,000 1,830 1,795 93,330 91,545 VA : 10,800 10,400 1,905 1,940 20,574 20,176 WV : 1,800 1,600 1,700 1,350 3,060 2,160 US : 335,300 307,100 1,934 1,896 648,633 582,336 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 8,000 6,500 1,500 1,400 12,000 9,100 PA : 3,200 3,300 1,950 1,900 6,240 6,270 US : 11,200 9,800 1,629 1,568 18,240 15,370 Total 31-32 : 346,500 316,900 1,925 1,886 666,873 597,706 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnotes at end of table. --continued Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1997 - 1998 1/ (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark : Air-cured : Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 2,050 2,450 2,290 2,280 4,695 5,586 TN : 480 525 2,000 2,040 960 1,071 US : 2,530 2,975 2,235 2,238 5,655 6,657 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 1,100 1,360 2,310 2,210 2,541 3,006 Type 37, VA Sun-cured: Belt : VA : 80 100 1,490 1,220 119 122 Total 35-37 : 3,710 4,435 2,241 2,206 8,315 9,785 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 4,900 4,500 2,200 2,100 10,780 9,450 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT : 1,315 1,435 1,760 1,600 2,314 2,296 MA : 725 925 1,825 1,445 1,323 1,337 US : 2,040 2,360 1,783 1,539 3,637 3,633 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI: WI : 1,800 1,500 2,330 1,735 4,194 2,603 Type 55, Northern WI: WI : 750 600 1,995 1,565 1,496 939 Total 54-55 : 2,550 2,100 2,231 1,687 5,690 3,542 Total 51-55 : 4,590 4,460 2,032 1,609 9,327 7,175 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper: Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT : 1,230 1,380 1,475 1,435 1,814 1,980 MA : 450 340 1,310 1,325 590 451 US : 1,680 1,720 1,431 1,413 2,404 2,431 All Cigar Types : Total 41-61 : 11,170 10,680 2,015 1,784 22,511 19,056 : All Tobacco : 836,230 717,655 2,137 2,061 1,787,399 1,479,179 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1998 Revised. Tobacco: Price and Value by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Price per : Value of : Pound : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Dollars ----- ----- 1,000 Dollars ---- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 1.710 1.780 311,494 280,644 VA : 1.727 1.792 163,918 131,282 US : 1.716 1.784 475,412 411,926 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 1.720 1.773 752,543 567,927 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 1.720 1.716 168,904 106,392 SC : 1.735 1.711 219,235 157,840 US : 1.728 1.713 388,139 264,232 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 1.721 1.697 32,790 29,022 GA : 1.712 1.707 152,753 153,971 US : 1.714 1.705 185,543 182,993 Total 11-14 : 1.720 1.756 1,801,637 1,427,078 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 2.125 1.936 4,182 4,530 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 2.268 2.259 21,773 20,134 TN : 2.260 2.251 41,476 38,287 US : 2.263 2.254 63,249 58,421 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 2.242 2.159 23,971 21,802 TN : 2.226 2.159 3,673 3,185 US : 2.240 2.159 27,644 24,987 Total 21-23 : 2.250 2.208 95,075 87,938 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 1.870 1.897 34,950 32,249 KY : 1.886 1.903 887,174 791,696 MO : 1.895 1.905 13,331 10,956 NC : 1.860 1.899 24,764 22,304 OH : 1.869 1.904 41,548 34,146 TN : 1.886 1.907 176,020 174,576 VA : 1.903 1.892 39,152 38,173 WV : 1.878 1.915 5,747 4,136 US : 1.885 1.903 1,222,686 1,108,236 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 1.720 1.630 20,640 14,833 PA : 1.300 0.800 8,112 5,016 US : 1.576 1.291 28,752 19,849 Total 31-32 : 1.877 1.887 1,251,438 1,128,085 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnotes at end of table. --continued Tobacco: Price and Value by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1997-98 1/ (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Price per : Value of : Pound : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Dollars ----- ----- 1,000 Dollars ---- : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark : Air-cured : Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 2.011 1.952 9,442 10,904 TN : 2.003 1.913 1,923 2,049 US : 2.010 1.946 11,365 12,953 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 2.034 1.974 5,168 5,934 Type 37, VA Sun-cured: Belt : VA : 1.908 1.709 227 208 Total 35-37 : 2.016 1.951 16,760 19,095 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 1.600 1.300 17,248 12,285 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT : 6.000 5.400 13,884 12,398 MA : 9.500 5.670 12,569 7,581 US : 7.273 5.499 26,453 19,979 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI: WI : 1.500 1.500 6,291 3,905 Type 55, Northern WI: WI : 1.520 1.490 2,274 1,399 Total 54-55 : 1.505 1.497 8,565 5,304 Total 51-55 : 3.754 3.524 35,018 25,283 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper: Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT 2/ : MA 2/ : US 2/ : All Cigar Types : Total 41-55 : 2.599 2.260 52,266 37,568 : All Tobacco : 1.802 1.828 3,217,176 2,699,764 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1998 revised. 2/ CT and MA type 61 price and value not published to avoid disclosure; not included in U.S. total. Tobacco: Farm Marketings, Percent of Sales by Class, Month, and State, 1998 Marketing Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : 1998 : 1999 and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Jul : Aug : Sep : Oct : Nov : Dec : Jan : Feb : Mar : Apr : Total -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent : Flue-cured : FL : 13 27 41 19 100 GA : 9 26 44 21 100 NC : 4 29 44 22 1 100 SC : 7 34 42 17 100 VA : 27 38 32 3 100 : Fire-cured : VA : 79 21 100 KY : 63 32 5 100 TN : 43 48 9 100 : Air-cured : IN : 14 42 35 9 100 KY : 18 47 28 7 100 MD : 61 39 100 MO : 30 33 21 16 100 NC : 26 50 24 100 OH : 15 39 37 9 100 PA 1/ : TN : 23 60 17 100 VA : 25 58 17 100 WV 1/ : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Sales by month are not available. Cotton: Area Planted and Harvested and Yield by Type, State, and United States, 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Area : Type : Planted : Harvested : Yield and :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- 1,000 Acres --------------- ---- Pounds ---- : Upland : AL : 535.0 495.0 442.0 475.0 597 559 AZ : 325.0 250.0 324.0 248.0 1,255 1,177 AR : 980.0 920.0 965.0 900.0 837 645 CA : 880.0 650.0 875.0 620.0 1,202 887 FL : 100.0 89.0 99.0 80.0 577 489 GA : 1,440.0 1,370.0 1,425.0 1,280.0 646 578 KS : 12.0 17.0 10.0 16.5 418 404 LA : 655.0 535.0 650.0 525.0 728 586 MS : 985.0 950.0 970.0 940.0 901 737 MO : 395.0 370.0 390.0 357.0 695 471 NM : 70.0 66.3 66.0 60.3 676 640 NC : 690.0 710.0 685.0 705.0 652 699 OK : 200.0 160.0 190.0 120.0 462 560 SC : 290.0 290.0 286.0 286.0 688 587 TN : 490.0 450.0 480.0 445.0 662 589 TX : 5,500.0 5,650.0 5,200.0 3,300.0 474 524 VA : 101.0 92.0 100.0 91.0 659 765 : US : 13,648.0 13,064.3 13,157.0 10,448.8 666 619 : Amer-Pima : AZ : 22.0 15.9 22.0 15.5 912 830 CA : 185.0 200.0 184.0 180.0 1,141 941 NM : 11.0 7.3 11.0 7.3 641 658 TX : 32.0 105.0 32.0 32.0 815 791 : US : 250.0 328.2 249.0 234.8 1,056 904 : All : AL : 535.0 495.0 442.0 475.0 597 559 AZ : 347.0 265.9 346.0 263.5 1,233 1,156 AR : 980.0 920.0 965.0 900.0 837 645 CA : 1,065.0 850.0 1,059.0 800.0 1,191 899 FL : 100.0 89.0 99.0 80.0 577 489 GA : 1,440.0 1,370.0 1,425.0 1,280.0 646 578 KS : 12.0 17.0 10.0 16.5 418 404 LA : 655.0 535.0 650.0 525.0 728 586 MS : 985.0 950.0 970.0 940.0 901 737 MO : 395.0 370.0 390.0 357.0 695 471 NM : 81.0 73.6 77.0 67.6 671 642 NC : 690.0 710.0 685.0 705.0 652 699 OK : 200.0 160.0 190.0 120.0 462 560 SC : 290.0 290.0 286.0 286.0 688 587 TN : 490.0 450.0 480.0 445.0 662 589 TX : 5,532.0 5,755.0 5,232.0 3,332.0 477 526 VA : 101.0 92.0 100.0 91.0 659 765 : US : 13,898.0 13,392.5 13,406.0 10,683.6 673 625 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1998 revised. Cotton: Production and Bales Ginned by Type, State, and United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production in : Lint- : Bales Ginned in Type : 480-lb Net Weight : seed : 480-lb Net Weight and : Bales 1/ : Ratio 2/ : Bales 3/ State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 4/ : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Bales --- -------- Bales -------- : Upland : AL : 550.0 553.0 545,900 555,000 AZ : 847.0 608.0 824,550 591,400 AR : 1,683.0 1,209.0 1,654,750 1,191,650 CA : 2,191.0 1,146.0 2,212,950 1,162,450 FL 5/ : 119.1 81.5 GA : 1,919.0 1,542.0 1,942,100 1,564,150 KS 5/ : 8.7 13.9 LA : 986.0 641.0 1,022,000 665,650 MS : 1,821.0 1,444.0 1,808,400 1,435,050 MO : 565.0 350.0 555,350 343,150 NM : 93.0 80.4 69,250 63,600 NC : 930.0 1,026.0 941,150 1,039,000 OK : 183.0 140.0 180,550 142,300 SC : 410.0 350.0 395,750 342,200 TN : 662.0 546.0 660,600 543,400 TX : 5,140.0 3,600.0 5,164,750 3,616,950 VA : 137.2 145.1 133,050 135,400 : US : 18,245.0 13,475.9 18,239,650 13,470,100 : Amer-Pima : AZ : 41.8 26.8 42,350 26,750 CA : 437.2 352.8 436,600 352,750 NM : 14.7 10.0 10,500 6,900 TX : 54.3 52.7 58,500 55,750 : US : 548.0 442.3 547,950 442,150 : All : AL : 550.0 553.0 545,900 555,000 AZ : 888.8 634.8 866,900 618,150 AR : 1,683.0 1,209.0 0.383 0.383 1,654,750 1,191,650 CA : 2,628.2 1,498.8 0.396 0.398 2,649,550 1,515,200 FL 5/ : 119.1 81.5 GA : 1,919.0 1,542.0 1,942,100 1,564,150 KS 5/ : 8.7 13.9 LA : 986.0 641.0 0.392 0.391 1,022,000 665,650 MS : 1,821.0 1,444.0 0.380 0.382 1,808,400 1,435,050 MO : 565.0 350.0 555,350 343,150 NM : 107.7 90.4 79,750 70,500 NC : 930.0 1,026.0 941,150 1,039,000 OK : 183.0 140.0 180,550 142,300 SC : 410.0 350.0 395,750 342,200 TN : 662.0 546.0 660,600 543,400 TX : 5,194.3 3,652.7 0.377 0.373 5,223,250 3,672,700 VA : 137.2 145.1 133,050 135,400 : US : 18,793.0 13,918.2 18,787,600 13,912,250 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ Estimates available only for the five States shown. Three-year average. 3/ Equivalent 480-lb net weight bales ginned, not adjusted for cross-State movement. 4/ 1998 revised. 5/ Bales withheld to avoid disclosure of individual gins, but are included in U.S. totals. Cottonseed: Production and Farm Disposition by State and United States, 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Farm Disposition : : :-----------------------------------: Used for : Production : Sales to : : Planting 3/ State: : Oil Mills : Other 2/ : :------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : AL : 196.0 192.0 87.0 67.0 109.0 125.0 5.7 6.4 AZ : 312.0 288.0 73.0 52.0 239.0 236.0 2.4 2.4 AR : 632.0 478.0 528.0 422.0 104.0 56.0 8.7 9.1 CA : 942.0 544.0 153.0 84.0 789.0 460.0 7.2 7.1 FL : 45.0 26.0 31.0 14.0 14.0 12.0 1.0 1.1 GA : 660.0 658.0 332.0 286.0 328.0 372.0 16.4 18.0 KS : 3.1 5.8 3.1 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 LA : 359.0 236.0 206.0 134.0 153.0 102.0 4.8 5.1 MS : 704.0 561.0 660.0 543.0 44.0 18.0 9.5 11.0 MO : 223.0 135.0 148.0 121.0 75.0 14.0 3.9 3.9 NM : 40.5 32.6 2.3 4.5 38.2 28.1 0.8 0.7 NC : 321.0 351.0 63.0 88.0 258.0 263.0 6.4 6.9 OK : 72.0 54.0 56.0 47.0 16.0 7.0 1.8 2.5 SC : 142.0 122.0 89.0 69.0 53.0 53.0 2.0 2.0 TN : 260.0 205.0 208.0 154.0 52.0 51.0 4.7 5.3 TX : 1,983.0 1,558.0 1,543.0 1,227.0 440.0 331.0 57.6 57.4 VA : 40.0 51.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 51.0 0.8 0.9 : US : 6,934.6 5,497.4 4,182.4 3,318.1 2,752.2 2,179.3 133.9 140.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1997 crop revised, 1998 crop preliminary. 2/ Includes planting seed, feed, exports, inter-farm sales, shrinkage, losses, and other uses. 3/ Included in "other" farm disposition. Planting seed from previous years' crop. Cotton: Cumulative Large Bolls and Harvesting Loss The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted cotton objective yield surveys in 5 States which accounted for 60 percent of the 1998 U.S. Upland cotton production. Plots were randomly selected from a scientific sample of cotton fields. Two sample plots per field were visited monthly from August 1 through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. The "large bolls" are total bolls counted from August through harvest. This count includes only bolls greater than one inch in diameter and burrs. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Cotton: Cumulative Large Bolls and Harvesting Loss by State, 1989-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Arkansas : California :----------------------------------------------------------------------- Year : : Harvest : : Harvest : Large Bolls : Loss : Large Bolls : Loss : 1/ : per Acre : 1/ : per Acre -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number Pounds Number Pounds : 1989 : 578 57 802 125 1990 : 669 74 843 131 1991 : 782 89 814 110 1992 : 817 73 819 116 1993 : 753 105 839 122 1994 : 812 83 806 133 1995 : 689 66 680 105 1996 : 741 64 744 165 1997 : 811 101 697 103 1998 : 640 122 655 180 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Louisiana : Mississippi :----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1989 : 708 83 710 90 1990 : 888 78 693 93 1991 : 770 68 726 90 1992 : 875 60 708 84 1993 : 661 65 608 76 1994 : 748 75 760 99 1995 : 615 49 607 78 1996 : 607 52 729 82 1997 : 643 45 833 76 1998 : 600 75 821 84 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Texas : Blank :----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1989 : 369 32 1990 : 489 39 1991 : 430 41 1992 : 489 53 1993 : 489 36 1994 : 486 41 1995 : 415 36 1996 : 498 39 1997 : 458 27 1998 : 482 37 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Total large bolls in 40 feet of row. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1998-99 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 6,340.0 5,274.0 5,867.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 80,187.0 78,219.0 72,604.0 Corn for Silage : 5,919.0 Hay, All : 60,016.0 60,093.0 Alfalfa : 23,642.0 All Other : 36,374.0 Oats : 4,902.0 4,732.0 2,765.0 2,686.0 Rice : 3,345.0 3,580.0 3,317.0 Rye : 1,571.0 1,590.0 418.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,626.0 8,804.0 7,723.0 Sorghum for Silage : 305.0 Wheat, All : 65,871.0 63,029.0 59,002.0 Winter : 46,449.0 43,399.0 40,126.0 36,343.0 Durum : 3,805.0 4,270.0 3,728.0 Other Spring : 15,617.0 15,360.0 15,148.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,127.0 1,092.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 336.0 521.0 329.0 Mustard Seed : 98.9 95.6 Peanuts : 1,521.0 1,508.0 1,467.0 Rapeseed : 4.8 4.7 Safflower : 303.0 285.0 Soybeans for Beans : 72,375.0 73,105.0 70,811.0 Sunflower : 3,553.0 3,955.0 3,476.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,392.5 13,944.2 10,683.6 Upland : 13,064.3 13,639.0 10,448.8 Amer-Pima : 328.2 305.2 234.8 Sugarbeets : 1,497.9 1,547.7 1,451.6 Sugarcane : 951.5 Tobacco : 717.7 647.9 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 9.0 7.4 Dry Edible Beans : 2,010.1 2,045.5 1,913.9 Dry Edible Peas : 323.4 309.1 Lentils : 162.0 158.5 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.1 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.4 Hops : 36.6 Peppermint Oil : 124.0 Potatoes, All : 1,422.7 1,393.7 Winter : 15.5 17.9 15.0 17.7 Spring : 93.0 87.7 90.6 85.8 Summer : 73.0 68.1 Fall : 1,241.2 1,220.0 Spearmint Oil : 27.4 Sweet Potatoes : 86.8 86.7 83.8 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1998-99 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 60.1 352,445 Corn for Grain : " : 134.4 9,761,085 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.0 94,525 Hay, All : " : 2.52 151,338 Alfalfa : " : 3.47 82,010 All Other : " : 1.91 69,328 Oats : Bu : 60.4 167,122 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 5,669 188,051 Rye : Bu : 28.2 11,795 Sorghum for Grain : " : 67.3 519,933 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 11.4 3,487 Wheat, All : Bu : 43.2 2,550,383 Winter : " : 46.9 44.4 1,880,605 1,614,799 Durum : " : 37.8 141,069 Other Spring : " : 34.9 528,709 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,455 1,588,620 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 5,497 Flaxseed : Bu : 20.4 6,708 Mustard Seed : Lb : 855 81,750 Peanuts : " : 2,702 3,963,440 Rapeseed : " : 1,353 6,360 Safflower : " : 1,446 412,085 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 38.9 2,756,794 Sunflower : Lb : 1,509 5,246,701 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 625 13,918.2 Upland 2/ : " : 619 13,475.9 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 904 442.3 Sugarbeets : Ton : 22.5 32,660 Sugarcane : " : 35.8 34,057 Tobacco : Lb : 2,061 1,479,179 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,405 104 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,611 30,828 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,920 5,934 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,223 1,938 Wrinkled Seed Peas : " : 674 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,480 9,000 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 50,000 18,000 Hops : " : 1,625 59,548 Peppermint Oil : " : 78 9,727 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 343 477,381 Winter : " : 199 204 2,980 3,618 Spring : " : 233 270 21,137 23,205 Summer : " : 277 18,896 Fall : " : 356 434,368 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 109 2,987 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 142 11,887 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1997-99 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,888 2,626 2,577 K-Early Citrus (FL) : " : 7 2 4 Lemons : " : 958 935 817 Oranges : " : 12,677 13,670 9,843 Tangelos (FL) : " : 178 128 115 Tangerines : " : 418 360 333 Temples (FL) : " : 108 101 81 : : Non-Citrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 10,323.8 10,943.6 Apricots : Ton : 139.2 118.3 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 13,700.0 21,000.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,290.9 5,595.6 Olives (CA) : " : 104.0 90.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 38,800.0 39,900.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,624.6 2,425.8 Pears : Ton : 1,042.5 926.2 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 214.0 108.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 25.5 25.6 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 759,000 520,000 760,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 47.0 15.5 Pecans : Lb : 335,000 155,050 Pistachios (CA) : " : 180,000 188,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 269.0 227.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,298 1,159 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1996-97, 1997-98, and 1998-99. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1998-99 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,565,730 2,134,340 2,374,320 Corn for Grain 2/ :32,450,880 31,654,450 29,382,110 Corn for Silage : 2,395,360 Hay, All 3/ : 24,287,880 24,319,040 Alfalfa : 9,567,680 All Other : 14,720,190 Oats : 1,983,790 1,914,990 1,118,970 1,087,000 Rice : 1,353,690 1,448,790 1,342,360 Rye : 635,770 643,460 169,160 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,895,550 3,562,890 3,125,420 Sorghum for Silage : 123,430 Wheat, All 3/ :26,657,330 25,507,210 23,877,520 Winter :18,797,450 17,563,140 16,238,590 14,707,650 Durum : 1,539,850 1,728,030 1,508,680 Other Spring : 6,320,040 6,216,040 6,130,240 : Oilseeds : Canola : 456,090 441,920 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 135,980 210,840 133,140 Mustard Seed : 40,020 38,690 Peanuts : 615,530 610,270 593,680 Rapeseed : 1,940 1,900 Safflower : 122,620 115,340 Soybeans for Beans :29,289,440 29,584,860 28,656,500 Sunflower : 1,437,860 1,600,550 1,406,700 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,419,810 5,643,080 4,323,550 Upland : 5,286,990 5,519,570 4,228,520 Amer-Pima : 132,820 123,510 95,020 Sugarbeets : 606,190 626,340 587,450 Sugarcane : 385,060 Tobacco : 290,430 262,180 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 3,640 2,990 Dry Edible Beans : 813,470 827,790 774,540 Dry Edible Peas : 130,880 125,090 Lentils : 65,560 64,140 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,470 Ginger Root (HI) : 150 Hops : 14,830 Peppermint Oil : 50,180 Potatoes, All 3/ : 575,750 564,020 Winter : 6,270 7,240 6,070 7,160 Spring : 37,640 35,490 36,660 34,720 Summer : 29,540 27,560 Fall : 502,300 493,720 Spearmint Oil : 11,090 Sweet Potatoes : 35,130 35,090 33,910 Taro (HI) 4/ : 200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1998-99 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.23 7,673,580 Corn for Grain : 8.44 247,942,980 Corn for Silage : 35.80 85,751,640 Hay, All 2/ : 5.65 137,291,520 Alfalfa : 7.78 74,398,220 All Other : 4.27 62,893,300 Oats : 2.17 2,425,770 Rice : 6.35 8,529,850 Rye : 1.77 299,610 Sorghum for Grain : 4.23 13,206,910 Sorghum for Silage : 25.63 3,163,350 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.91 69,410,050 Winter : 3.15 2.99 51,181,680 43,947,630 Durum : 2.54 3,839,270 Other Spring : 2.35 14,389,100 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.63 720,590 Cottonseed 3/ : 4,987,160 Flaxseed : 1.28 170,390 Mustard Seed : 0.96 37,080 Peanuts : 3.03 1,797,790 Rapeseed : 1.52 2,880 Safflower : 1.62 186,920 Soybeans for Beans : 2.62 75,027,640 Sunflower : 1.69 2,379,860 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.70 3,030,330 Upland : 0.69 2,934,030 Amer-Pima : 1.01 96,300 Sugarbeets : 50.44 29,628,650 Sugarcane : 80.24 30,895,990 Tobacco : 2.31 670,940 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.58 4,720 Dry Edible Beans : 1.81 1,398,330 Dry Edible Peas : 2.15 269,160 Lentils : 1.37 87,910 Wrinkled Seed Peas : 30,570 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.65 4,080 Ginger Root (HI) : 56.04 8,160 Hops : 1.82 27,010 Peppermint Oil : 0.09 4,410 Potatoes, All 2/ : 38.39 21,653,640 Winter : 22.27 22.91 135,170 164,110 Spring : 26.15 30.31 958,760 1,052,560 Summer : 31.10 857,110 Fall : 39.91 19,702,600 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 1,350 Sweet Potatoes : 15.90 539,190 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,720 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1997-99 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,619,950 2,382,270 2,337,820 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 6,350 1,810 3,630 Lemons : 869,080 848,220 741,170 Oranges : 11,500,380 12,401,220 8,929,420 Tangelos (FL) : 161,480 116,120 104,330 Tangerines : 379,200 326,590 302,090 Temples (FL) : 97,980 91,630 73,480 : Non-Citrus : Apples : 4,682,800 4,963,930 Apricots : 126,310 107,320 Bananas (HI) : 6,210 9,530 Grapes : 6,614,190 5,076,200 Olives (CA) : 94,350 81,650 Papayas (HI) : 17,600 18,100 Peaches : 1,190,500 1,100,320 Pears : 945,740 840,270 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 194,140 97,980 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 23,130 23,220 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 344,280 235,870 344,730 Hazelnuts : 42,640 14,060 Pecans : 151,950 70,330 Pistachios (CA) : 81,650 85,280 Walnuts (CA) : 244,030 205,930 Maple Syrup : 6,490 5,790 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1996-97, 1997-98, and 1998-99. Crop Moisture Depicts short term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting Agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season. Uses...applicable in measuring the short term, week-to-week, status of dryness or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations. Limitations...may not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile, or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long term (months, years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index. Drought Severity Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and reflects long term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as evaportranspiration. Uses...applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in aquifers, reservoirs, and streams. Limitations...is not generally indicative of short-term (few weeks) status of drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this is indicated by the crop moisture index). April Weather Summary: A persistent, high-amplitude jet stream pattern promoted cool conditions in the West and warm weather in the East. Numerous storm systems took a similar path across the Intermountain West, central and southern Plains and Corn Belt, contributing to heavy precipitation and fieldwork delays. Heavy snow occasionally blanketed the northern Plains and Rocky Mountain States, and April-record rainfall soaked parts of the east-central Plains and upper Midwest. Late in the month, beneficial rain fell across the Southeast, including Florida, locally improving topsoil moisture and curbing the threat of wildfires. While the Southeast's rain aided winter grains and spring-sown crops (corn, cotton, soybeans, sorghum, peanuts, and rice), long-term moisture deficits persisted across Florida, southern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama. Unfavorably dry weather stressed spring-sown crops in southern Texas, where significant rain last fell in late March. Drier-than-normal weather accompanied cool conditions in California and the Northwest, promoting spring planting but resulting in a slow start to the growing season. In the Southwest, early-month storms provided short-term relief from La Nia-driven winter dryness, but failed to significantly dent long-term moisture deficits. Monthly precipitation totaled more than 200 percent of normal in a broad swath from Arizona and southern California northeastward to the upper Midwest. Totals topped 400 percent of normal on parts of the central and southern High Plains and the Desert Southwest. More than 8 inches of rain fell during April in a band from northern Oklahoma to western Iowa, and in a few areas near southern Lake Michigan. In contrast, less than half the normal monthly precipitation dampened New England, the Northwest, and parts of Florida. Despite late-month showers, monthly totals were also less than 50 percent of normal across the southern portions of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Monthly temperatures averaged as much as 6 degrees F below normal in several areas from southern California to the central Rockies, and as much as 4 degrees F below normal on the High Plains. East of the Mississippi River and along the western Gulf Coast, however, readings ranged from 0 to 5 degrees F above normal. General Crop Comments: The month began with heavy rains that halted fieldwork and eroded hillsides in the lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas of the southern Great Plains and middle Mississippi Valley. Rain in the Southwest and several inches of snow in the northern Great Plains eased moisture shortages, but soils remained abnormally dry in many areas of both regions. Light rainfall moistened soils and temporarily delayed spring tillage and fertilizing in parts of the Southeast, lower Ohio Valley, Corn Belt, and Southwest. Below-normal temperatures hindered crop development in the central and northern High Plains and California. Coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest remained cold and rainy, adversely affecting crop conditions and promoting diseases. A combination of heat and dry weather triggered wildfires in Florida. During the second week of the month, strong thunderstorms delivered soaking rains, spawned tornadoes, and halted fieldwork in the western Corn Belt. Adjacent areas of the Great Plains, eastern Corn Belt, and Great Lakes received lighter showers that moistened soils and temporarily delayed spring tillage. Warm weather in the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast promoted rapid development of winter wheat and early row crops. In the lower Mississippi Valley, wet soils and additional showers continued to limit fieldwork and planting. The Southeast, Atlantic Coastal Plains, and most of the Great Plains were dry, promoting tillage and fertilizing operations, but disrupting planting. Cold weather slowed crop development and delayed planting along the Pacific Coast, especially in California. A mid-month cold front pushed southward through the Great Plains, freezing maturing wheat fields in the southern Great Plains and halting development in the central and northern Great Plains. Hail associated with a line of severe storms also caused crop damage in the southern Great Plains. Persistent showers limited fieldwork and prevented row crop planting in most of the Corn Belt and central Great Plains. Dry conditions along the Ohio River Valley in the southern Corn Belt and Atlantic Coastal Plains permitted steady fieldwork and planting accelerated. Dry weather aided fieldwork and small grain seeding, while sunny skies improved wheat development in parts of the northern Great Plains, northern Rocky Mountains, and Pacific Northwest. Soils remained wet in North Dakota and western Minnesota due to poor drying conditions, while some areas of the Pacific Northwest needed rain to germinate seeds. Warmer weather encouraged planting and aided crop development in the Southwest. Later in the month, heavy rains halted fieldwork in the northern Corn Belt, and lighter rainfall limited progress in other areas of the Corn Belt. In the southern Great Plains, a line of thunderstorms delivered brief downpours that increased soil moisture levels and aided crop development. Hail and isolated flooding associated with the thunderstorms damaged some wheat in Oklahoma. In the Southeast and Atlantic Coastal Plains, continued dry weather aided fieldwork, but discouraged planting and hindered crop emergence. Planting and field preparations accelerated in the lower Mississippi Valley, as warm, windy weather rapidly dried wet soils. Dry, sunny weather favored fieldwork and small grain seeding in the northern Great Plains. Dry soils stressed winter wheat in the Pacific Northwest, while warm, dry weather in California promoted crop development, and field activities rapidly progressed. A slow-moving upper-level low pressure system over the Great Basin produced a mixture of precipitation that replenished topsoil moisture in parts of the central High Plains and Rockies. As the end of the month approached, heavy rains halted fieldwork and planting in the High Plains, parts of eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, and adjacent areas of southern Missouri. Heavy rains ended excessive dryness in parts of the Atlantic Coastal Plains and eased drought conditions in southern Florida. Lighter precipitation hampered field activities in the southern Appalachians and the Tennessee, lower Ohio, and middle Mississippi Valleys. Dry conditions aided planting in the eastern and northern Corn Belt, northern Great Plains, and Southwest. Excessive dryness delayed planting and hindered emergence and growth in parts of the Gulf Coast region and adjacent inland areas of the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley. Below-normal temperatures hindered winter wheat development and emergence of other small grains and row crops in the central and southern Great Plains and most of the Corn Belt. Above-normal temperatures promoted crop emergence and development in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes States, but dry soils hindered crop emergence. In California, cool weather, scattered showers, and strong winds caused minor planting delays. When the month ended, planting of most major field crops was behind normal. One-fifth of the corn acreage was planted compared with nearly one-third for the 5-year average. Cotton, sorghum, and peanut planting was several days behind normal, while soybean and rice planting was only slightly behind the average. Seeding of small grains was well ahead of normal as the month ended and emergence was slightly ahead of normal. Winter wheat development was also ahead of the normal as the month ended, with more than one-fourth of the crop headed. Harvesting began in southern Texas and fields were rapidly maturing in central and eastern Texas. Winter Wheat: Area for 1999 grain harvest is forecast at 36.3 million acres, down 9 percent from 1998. If realized, this will be the smallest winter wheat area since 1971. Soft Red Winter (SRW) and White wheat took the biggest percentage hit. Both classes are down 12 percent from last year. Hard Red Winter (HRW) area is down 8 percent from a year ago with Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas accounting for about 1.8 million acres of the HRW drop. Good or better condition ratings of winter wheat tracked below 1998 through April then moved just above last year the first weekend of May. For the most part, the Nation's winter wheat crop seems to have wintered well. Last December's freeze hit the Oregon counties of Umatilla and Morrow hard which led to reseeding with barley and/or other spring wheat. Several states indicate moisture is needed. The cool, dry spring has slowed growth in Washington and Idaho. Soil moisture is adequate to surplus in Utah. Eastern Oregon needs rain. Expectations for a good crop are high in New York's growing area. Soft Red Winter areas generally enjoyed a mild winter with few problems encountered this spring. Some insect problems were noted in Virginia and North Carolina has reported some cereal leaf blight. Otherwise, SRW growers seem to have a very good crop as of May 1. Low prices have resulted in additional and later cattle grazing in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Forecasted head counts from the Objective Yield surveys in these three states are down from the last two years but are still above average. Abundant topsoil moisture is reported in Colorado and Montana. The HRW crops in Nebraska and Oklahoma are developing ahead of average. South Dakota's winter crop prospects are excellent. The south Texas harvest began in late April. Oklahoma's harvest should start by June 1. Durum Wheat: Production of Durum wheat in Arizona and California is forecast at a collective 17.1 million bushels. This is down 45 percent from their 1998 total of 30.9 million bushels primarily due to large drops in acreage levels. Frost damage to the Arizona crop has caused concern over prospective yields this year; thus, the 10 bushel reduction. California's crop is rated in good to excellent condition; cool March and April temperatures slowed development. The Imperial Valley harvest began in late April with average yields reported; the San Joaquin Valley crop is heading and won't be ready for cutting until mid-June. Hay Stocks on Farms: Stocks of all hay on farms totaled 24.8 million tons on May 1, 1999, up 14 percent from May 1 of the previous year. Disappearance of hay from December 1, 1998 - May 1, 1999, totaled 87.0 million tons, 7.2 percent higher than the 1997 crop disappearance of 81.2 million tons for the same period. Stocks of hay on May 1, 1999, were higher compared to last year in 33 of the 48 estimating states. Mild winter conditions, combined with good hay production, led to stocks increases across much of the nation. Florida and the Southern Plains were adversely affected by drought conditions and showed sharp decreases in hay stocks. Almonds: The first forecast of 1999 California almond production is 760 million pounds, shelled basis. This is up 46 percent from last year's crop and 1 million pounds over the 1997 record of 759 million pounds. Bearing acreage totals 475,000, up 5 percent from 1998. Growers reported good to excellent pollination and tree development. However, potential yields were limited by April frosts and cool temperatures. The crop is currently about one week behind normal because of the cold weather. Avocados: U.S. avocado production for the 1998-99 season totaled 144,250 tons, down 19 percent from last season. Bearing acres totaled 65,640, down 1 percent from the 1997-98 season. The value of the 1998-99 crop totaled $213 million, down 23 percent from last season. The season average price for all avocados was $1,480 per ton, down 5 percent from the 1997-98 season. California avocado production, at 121,000 tons, dropped 21 percent from the previous year. Although most of the growing areas were spared damage form the hard freeze in December 1998, heavy rains during the bloom season hurt production. Florida produced 4 percent less avocados than in 1997-98 but the value of the crop increased by 17 percent. The value increased primarily due to the quality of fruit and strong demand. Hawaii avocado production was unchanged from the previous year. Value of production decreased by 2 percent due to soft local demand. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 3.09 million pounds for April, 9 percent higher than March but 9 percent lower than April 1998. Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,750 acres in April, virtually unchanged from a month ago but 17 percent more than a year ago. Area harvested, totaling 2,150 acres, was 2 percent higher than March and 21 percent higher than last April. April weather conditions were a mix of sunshine and heavy rains over major papaya producing orchards. Rainfall and overcast skies slowed fruit development and delayed some farm activities during the first half of April. Total Hawaiian papaya utilization during 1998 is estimated at 39.9 million pounds, 3 percent higher than the previous year. Fresh sales of 35.6 million pounds were virtually unchanged from a year ago. Processed utilization, at 4.3 million pounds, is 39 percent higher than last year. Bearing area is 2,120 acres, 7 percent more than 1997. Dry conditions during the first three months of 1998 had a detrimental effect on unirrigated papaya orchards. These orchards are on the Island of Hawaii and make up three-fourths of the State's total papaya acreage. The severity of the drought varied by area and soil type. Orchards experienced heavy flower drop. Failed plantings due to the lack of consistent rainfall were reported. Although showers replenished soil moisture in April, the effects of the drought were evident in smaller fruit and lower yields. Bananas: Hawaii banana production for 1998 is estimated at a record high 21.0 million pounds, up 53 percent from 1997. New and maturing acreage boosted production levels. The State's harvested area reached a record high 1,420 acres, up 470 acres from a year ago. Weather during 1998 was drier than normal but major orchards use irrigation to offset lower rainfall. Control efforts for Banana Bunchy Top Virus continue. Taro: Hawaii taro production for 1998 was estimated at 6.00 million pounds, up 9 percent from last year. Area harvested, at 490 acres, was up 40 acres from 1997. Yields of taro used for poi increased due to improved weather and the subsiding of the Taro Pocket Rot disease. Weather conditions for fresh use taro were generally unfavorable -- initially too dry then too wet. Phytophthora (leaf blight) became widespread with the advent of rainy weather and corm development was hampered. Grapefruit: The May 1 forecast of the 1998-99 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.58 million tons, down 1 percent from the April forecast and down 2 percent from last season. The May 1 forecast of Florida grapefruit is decreased to 48.1 million boxes (2.05 million tons). If realized, the forecast will be down 3 percent from a year ago. The white seedless forecast is 18.0 million boxes (765,000 tons), down 5 percent from April and 2 percent lower than last season. Lower yields are anticipated from the remaining unharvested rows due to the condition of the fruit, the dry weather, and harvest priorities. The colored seedless forecast remains at 29.5 million boxes (1.25 million tons), down 4 percent from 1997-98. If realized, it will be the third largest crop ever recorded. The forecast of seedy grapefruit is increased to 600,000 boxes (26,000 tons). All seedy grapefruit are certified in processed form and records are dependent on load tickets. Grapefruit production in Texas is forecast at 5.60 million boxes (224,000 tons), up 4 percent from April and up 17 percent from the previous season. Utilized production was higher than expected as the harvesting season winds down. California and Arizona forecasts are carried forward from April. Tangerines: The 1998-99 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 333,000 tons, up 2 percent from last month but down 8 percent from the previous year's utilization. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.95 million boxes (235,000 tons), 2 percent higher than the April forecast. The lasting quality and demand for the fruit have been excellent this season and weekly certifications continue. California and Arizona tangerine forecasts are carried forward from the April forecasts. Tangelos: Florida's May tangelo forecast is final at 2.55 million boxes (115,000 tons) and is the smallest crop in more than 20 years, with the exception of the 2.45 million boxes (110,000 tons) from the 1995-96 season. The forecast is down 11 percent from last season. Temples: Florida's Temple forecast is reduced to 1.80 million boxes (81,000 tons), 10 percent less than last month's forecast and 20 percent less than last season. Estimated utilization through the end of April is 1.77 million boxes and weekly utilization has declined to almost nothing. The route survey indicated only 4 percent of the rows left to be harvested. Most of these rows have useable late or "off-bloom" fruit but harvest is questionable. Florida Citrus: Florida's citrus belt was mostly hot and dry during April. There were a few days of light scattered rains the last week of the month. Rainfall amounts were not sufficient and growers had to continue round the clock irrigation. Many wells have run dry and on both coasts there are reports of salt water intrusion causing the water source to be unusable for most citrus operations. The bloom cycle has been slowed by the dry weather. Most trees completed bloom by the middle of April. There are, however, several groves still in full bloom the first of May. The prolonged dry conditions have limited new growth on most older trees. Some weaker trees in non-irrigated groves have lost all of their leaves and a few have died. Harvest of Valencia oranges was very active during April. Most of the oranges have gone to the processors. Movement of all seedless grapefruit slowed during the month as supplies were running low. Harvest of Temples and Honey tangerines was completed by the end of the month. Caretakers were kept very busy irrigating and cutting cover crops that were competing for surface soil moisture. Texas Citrus: Harvest for the 1998-99 season was nearing completion by the end of April. Some areas of the Rio Grande Valley received beneficial rainfall during April which should improve the grapefruit bloom which was lagging behind normal. California Citrus: Grapefruit picking was active during April and the grapefruit had good quality and color. Lemons were harvested in the coastal area of southern California. Good quality was reported. The lemons in the San Joaquin Valley were devastated by the December freeze. Virtually no lemons have been picked in the Valley since the freeze. Picking of navel oranges ended by late April in the San Joaquin Valley and southern California. A good quality crop was harvested from southern California, where only about 10 percent of the state's navel acreage is located. Valencia orange picking in southern California was active during April with a good quality crop reported. Harvest was also active in the San Joaquin Valley, but not very many Valencia oranges were salvageable for the fresh market due to the December freeze. California Fruits and Nuts: Low nightly temperatures in early April caused some frost damage to grapes, nuts, and fruit in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. Damage appears to be isolated and not widespread. Hailstorms also caused some damage. Most of the month was dry, but maturity and development of the fruit were slowed by cooler than normal April temperatures. Growers were busy with weed control, irrigation, and thinning stone fruit. Fungicides were applied to grapes, stone fruit, and almonds. Spring Potatoes: Spring potato production in 1999 is forecast at 23.2 million cwt, up 10 percent from last year and 4 percent above 1997. The May production forecast is 6 percent above April 1, because of ideal growing seasons in Texas, Arizona, and Hastings, Florida. Area for harvest is estimated at 85,800 acres, down 5 percent from a year ago and 2 percent below two years ago. The average yield is forecast at 270 cwt per acre, up 37 cwt over last year and 15 cwt above two years ago. The Hastings, Florida area had a very good growing season and no frost damage. Active harvest is underway. Florida's other spring areas are about finished digging. California potato growth during April was slowed by cold weather and frost, making harvest about 10 days late. Arizona's growing weather has been exceptionally good for potatoes. Harvest started in early April in Yuma and during the third week in Central Arizona. In Texas, harvest is started and yields are turning out better than the April 1 projection. Development in North Carolina and Alabama was slowed by drying soils and scattered frost. Harvest is difficult in dry Alabama soils. Tobacco: U.S. production for 1998 was revised down 3 percent and harvested acreage down 1 percent from December 1998. Tobacco production, at 1.48 billion pounds in 1998, was down 17 percent from 1997, and was at the lowest level since 1995. Tobacco producers harvested 717,655 acres, down 14 percent from the previous year. Final yield per acre averaged 2,061 pounds, compared to 2,137 in 1997. Burley and Flue-cured tobacco types showed large declines from a year ago. Flue-cured production totaled 813 million pounds in 1998, down 22 percent from 1997. Growers harvested 368,800 acres, down 20 percent from the previous year. North Carolina led all Flue-cured states with 66 percent of the U.S. total production. North Carolina's Flue-cured production decreased 22 percent from 1997. Burley production totaled 582 million pounds in 1998, 10 percent less than 1997. The average yield for burley was 1,896 pounds, down 38 pounds from the previous year. Kentucky led all Burley states with 70 percent of the U.S. total production. Kentucky's acreage decreased 10 percent and their yield averaged 1,935 pounds per acre, down 25 pounds from a year ago. Dark Air-cured tobacco production increased 18 percent from 1997 but Cigar types declined 15 percent from a year ago. Yields were down for Cigar types due to poor quality. Cotton: The 1998 United States all cotton final production totaled 13.9 million bales, 26 percent less than 1997's production. The 1998 output was the smallest crop since 1989. Upland cotton production, at 13.5 million bales, was 26 percent less than the previous year, while American-Pima production totaled 442,300 bales, down 19 percent from 1997. The area planted to all cotton totaled 13.4 million acres, down 4 percent from 1997. Harvested area was 10.7 million acres, down 20 percent from the previous year. This large decrease was mainly due to the large abandonment in Texas. Abandonment totaled 20 percent in 1998, compared to only 4 percent the previous year. Yields for the U.S. averaged 625 pounds per harvested acre. Texas' harvest exceeded the 5-year average during the season, and in late November, harvest was 8 points ahead of the average pace of 87 percent. Texas' irrigated fields showed good progress during the 1998 season, but drought and high temperatures resulted in 2.35 million acres of Upland cotton being abandoned. At the end of August, approximately one-half of the acreage was rated in poor or very poor condition, 17 percent was rated good, and 3 percent was rated excellent. In late August, boll set was complete. Torrential rains in the south during October replenished topsoil moisture, but harvest was interrupted and regrowth became a problem in some fields. Objective yield survey data indicated the third lowest boll weights since 1988. A large amount of American-Pima cotton was seeded in non-traditional producing areas and was subject to substantial abandonment. Acreage planted to all cotton in Texas was 5.76 million, up 4 percent from 1997, but harvested acreage was down 36 percent from last year, at 3.33 million acres. Texas and Oklahoma both had record setting Upland cotton yields due to the large amount of non-irrigated acreage that was abandoned. The abandonment of these acres resulted in the irrigated acreage accounting for a larger proportion of the total, and thus increasing the States' overall yield. The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) planted and harvested 8 percent less acreage than in 1997. Plantings totaled 3.23 million acres and harvested area totaled 3.17 million acres. Planting was behind the 5-year average due to wet soils until mid-May, when a dry period allowed most States to exceed the average. During the first week of May, producers in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi planted about 30 percent of their acreage. The percent of the Arkansas crop rated in good to excellent condition on July 19, dropped 13 points from late-June to 55 percent. Louisiana's rating dropped 12 points during this same time period to 38 percent, while Mississippi showed only a 5 point drop to 70 percent in good to excellent condition. Hot and dry weather pushed the crop's development ahead of 5-year averages. Missouri's acreage received heavy rains during early August and then dry conditions began with mild temperatures, which lowered yield potential. During September, Louisiana and Mississippi were affected by two tropical storms and Hurricane Georges. The first storm, Frances, had high amounts of rainfall and also moved into southern Arkansas. Tropical storm Hermine made landfall in Louisiana, but had much less rain than the previous storm. In early November, harvest was 8 points behind the 5-year average pace in Missouri, at 70 percent, but the other States were ahead of the average pace. At this same time, Louisiana had 97 percent of the crop harvested, 5 points ahead of the 5-year average. Mississippi and Arkansas producers were 14 points above average with 98 percent and 91 percent of the acreage harvested, respectively, in early November. Tennessee's progress, at 92 percent, was 17 points ahead of the 5-year average and excellent harvest conditions allowed growers to proceed with second pickings. Cotton objective yield data indicated Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi had the lowest boll weights compared to the past 10 years. Arizona planted 23 percent fewer acres of all cotton than during 1997. Harvested acreage decreased by 24 percent. California producers decreased planted and harvested acreage of all cotton by 20 percent and 24 percent, respectively. Eighty-three percent of Arizona's crop was harvested in late November, 7 points behind the normal pace. California's seeding pace was well behind average most of the season as wet, cool weather prevailed which resulted in cotton development remaining behind average. Only one percent of the California crop was harvested on October 4, 8 points behind average. One month later, producers were 47 points behind the average pace, with only 15 percent harvested. Boll opening, on this same data, was three-fourths complete compared to the 5-year average of 99 percent and the crop's condition was rated as 45 percent good and 45 percent in fair condition. During December, harvest made little progress in the central valley, due to the poor drying conditions, and some unharvested cotton fields were plowed under because of deteriorating lint quality and unopened bolls. A few fields were second picked, and plowdown for pink bollworm control was ongoing on sandier soils. The plowdown deadline for the southern San Joaquin Valley was extended fifteen days, due to the extremely late harvest season. California's final boll weights were the third lowest since 1988. In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina), cotton planted acreage was 3 percent less than in 1997, at 2.87 million acres, and harvested acreage was also down 3 percent, at 2.75 million acres. Plantings were behind average for most of the season except in Alabama, where producers exceeded the average planting pace. The weather remained hot and dry after plantings were completed. Hurricane Bonnie entered into North Carolina on August 26, with extreme winds and torrential rainfall, and covered approximately one-half of the cotton acreage in the State. The two largest producing counties were on the western edge of the storm and weren't heavily affected. Hurricane Georges crossed southern Alabama and into Georgia during September, with the heaviest rainfall in Alabama. Additionally, Tropical Storm Earl also affected these States' cotton crop in early September with heavy rain. However, open weather during the fall resulted in larger production than earlier anticipated. All cotton ginnings totaled 13,912,250 equivalent 480-pound net weight bales during the 1998 season. This compares with 18,787,600 equivalent 480-pound bales ginned in 1997. Cottonseed: Cottonseed production in 1998 totaled 5.50 million tons, down 21 percent from 1997. Reliability of May 1 Winter Wheat Production Forecast Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between April 24 and May 4 to gather information on expected yield as of May 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in three States (Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) where winter wheat is normally mature enough to make meaningful counts. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's maturity. In early fields, counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested. A 5-year historical average head weight is used until the crop matures to the point that heads can be clipped, threshed, and weighed. The number of heads times the weight of the heads in a sample plot can then be combined to an estimate of yield per acre. The 5-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until the crop reaches maturity and are harvested on the final visit. The farm operator survey included a sample of approximately 11,800 wheat producers representing all major production areas. These producers were selected from an earlier acreage survey and were asked about the probable winter wheat acres for harvest and yield on their operation. These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields as the season progresses. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published May 1 forecasts. Revision Policy: The May 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the May 1 winter wheat production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is done by expressing the deviation between the May 1 production forecast and the final estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared percentage deviations for the 1979-1998 20-year period; the square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the May 1 winter wheat production forecast is 6.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 1.61 billion bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 6.8 percent or approximately 109 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 11.8 percent or approximately 190 million bushels. Differences between the May 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 88 million bushels, ranging from 4 million to 285 million bushels. The May 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 12 times and above 8 times. This does not imply that the May 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Brad Parks, Head (202) 720-3843 Jerry Ramirez - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Rhonda Brandt - Corn (202) 720-9526 Herman Ellison - Peanuts, Rice, Barley (202) 720-7688 Lance Honig - Hay, Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Roger Latham - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Dean Groskurth, Head (202) 720-3843 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4488 Howard Hill - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 Harry Nishimoto - Hops (360) 902-1940 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on June 11, 1999. 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