Cr Pr 2-2 (9-99) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 10, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Corn Production Down 2 Percent Soybean Production Down 3 Percent Cotton Production Down 4 Percent Corn production is forecast at 9.38 billion bushels, down 2 percent from the last forecast and down 4 percent from 1998. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 132.2 bushels per acre, down 2.5 bushels per acre from August and 2.2 bushels from a year ago. If realized, this would be the fourth largest production and third highest yield on record. Acreage for grain harvest is estimated at 71.0 million acres, unchanged from August. Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.78 billion bushels, down 3 percent from August 1, but up 1 percent from last year's record of 2.76 billion bushels. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 37.9 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from last month and down 1.0 bushel from 1998. Acreage for harvest is estimated at a record 73.3 million acres, unchanged from August 1 but up 3 percent from 1998. All cotton production is forecast at 17.5 million 480-pound bales, down 4 percent from last month, but up 26 percent from 1998. If realized, this would be the eighth largest cotton crop on record. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 621 pounds per harvested acre, down 28 pounds from last month. Condition of the cotton crop has deteriorated since last month in most of the cotton-producing States. Dry soils and above normal temperatures have stressed dryland cotton. Harvested acreage, at 13.6 million acres, reflects an increase of 30,000 acres in Louisiana from last month. All wheat production is placed at 2.31 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the August forecast and down 10 percent from 1998. The U.S. yield is forecast at 42.3 bushels per acre. This is down 0.3 bushels from last month. -Special Note- NASS PROGRAM CHANGES: The National Agricultural Statistics Service has completed a preliminary review of it's statistical program to make sure it best meets the needs of data users in the future. These changes are documented at the following web site: http://www.usda.gov/nass/events/events.htm This site can be reached through the NASS home page by clicking on "Coming Events and News" under AGENCY INFORMATION. The proposed program changes are the first subject. Other spring wheat production is forecast at 508 million bushels, down 1 percent from last month and down 4 percent from last season. The final forecast of U.S. average yield is 33.9 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels per acre lower than a month ago. Hard Red Spring production is down 1 percent from August to 455 million bushels because yields declined in Montana and South Dakota. Heat was the factor in both States. The South Dakota harvest is finished. Better Idaho yields have White Spring production up 1 percent to 52.5 million bushels. Durum wheat production is forecast at 110 million bushels, down 3 percent from last month and 22 percent less than 1998. The U.S. yield is now forecast at 28.3 bushels per acre, down 0.9 bushels from August 1. North Dakota's crop is maturing slowly; only 19 percent was combined as of August 29. California Navel Oranges: Production for 1999-00 is forecast at 40.0 million boxes, up 90 percent from last season's freeze damaged production of 21.0 million boxes, but down 9 percent from 1997-98 production. This initial forecast of the 1999-00 season is based on an objective measurement survey conducted in the California Central Valley. The new crop navel oranges are maturing well. Sizes are slightly below the average of the last 12 non-freeze years. This report was approved on September 10, 1999. Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page August Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Barley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Corn for Grain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Corn Plant Populations Per Acre. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Fruits and Nuts Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Nuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Oranges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Peanuts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . . . . . . . . . 40 Rice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Rice, by Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Sorghum for Grain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Soybeans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Soybean Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Spring Wheat Head Populations per Square Foot. . . . . . . . . . 26 Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Tobacco. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Wheat, All . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Durum. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Other Spring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Wheat, by Class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1999 : : : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 :-------------------: 1998 : 1999 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels -------- --- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 200 210 63.0 96.0 100.0 12,600 21,000 AZ 1/ : 30 30 175.0 190.0 190.0 5,250 5,700 AR 1/ : 215 135 100.0 125.0 125.0 21,500 16,875 CA : 260 235 160.0 185.0 185.0 41,600 43,475 CO : 1,070 1,130 145.0 146.0 146.0 155,150 164,980 CT 2/ : DE : 155 154 100.0 92.0 84.0 15,500 12,936 FL 1/ : 55 40 62.0 88.0 88.0 3,410 3,520 GA : 265 260 85.0 90.0 97.0 22,525 25,220 ID 1/ : 52 55 150.0 155.0 155.0 7,800 8,525 IL : 10,450 10,650 141.0 140.0 140.0 1,473,450 1,491,000 IN : 5,550 5,750 137.0 130.0 128.0 760,350 736,000 IA : 12,200 11,800 145.0 151.0 151.0 1,769,000 1,781,800 KS : 2,850 2,800 147.0 139.0 142.0 418,950 397,600 KY : 1,180 1,240 115.0 105.0 98.0 135,700 121,520 LA 1/ : 540 410 81.0 127.0 127.0 43,740 52,070 ME 2/ : MD : 400 400 109.0 90.0 85.0 43,600 34,000 MA 2/ : MI : 2,050 1,900 111.0 127.0 127.0 227,550 241,300 MN : 6,750 6,700 153.0 150.0 142.0 1,032,750 951,400 MS 1/ : 500 320 86.0 110.0 110.0 43,000 35,200 MO : 2,500 2,600 114.0 103.0 95.0 285,000 247,000 MT 1/ : 18 19 115.0 135.0 135.0 2,070 2,565 NE : 8,550 8,250 145.0 141.0 138.0 1,239,750 1,138,500 NH 2/ : NJ 1/ : 98 60 92.0 40.0 40.0 9,016 2,400 NM 1/ : 85 90 165.0 170.0 170.0 14,025 15,300 NY : 580 590 114.0 105.0 102.0 66,120 60,180 NC : 770 670 70.0 90.0 90.0 53,900 60,300 ND : 825 810 107.0 102.0 107.0 88,275 86,670 OH : 3,340 3,100 141.0 131.0 125.0 470,940 387,500 OK 1/ : 220 310 130.0 135.0 135.0 28,600 41,850 OR 1/ : 33 35 190.0 190.0 190.0 6,270 6,650 PA : 1,050 1,030 111.0 72.0 72.0 116,550 74,160 RI 2/ : SC : 275 260 40.0 68.0 70.0 11,000 18,200 SD : 3,550 3,250 121.0 120.0 105.0 429,550 341,250 TN : 620 560 96.0 105.0 98.0 59,520 54,880 TX : 1,850 1,730 100.0 135.0 135.0 185,000 233,550 UT 1/ : 24 22 141.0 143.0 143.0 3,384 3,146 VT 2/ : VA : 300 320 84.0 80.0 80.0 25,200 25,600 WA 1/ : 100 140 190.0 195.0 195.0 19,000 27,300 WV 1/ : 34 35 80.0 65.0 65.0 2,720 2,275 WI : 2,950 2,800 137.0 143.0 143.0 404,150 400,400 WY 1/ : 60 55 127.0 130.0 130.0 7,620 7,150 : US : 72,604 70,955 134.4 134.7 132.2 9,761,085 9,380,947 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Not estimated. Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1999 : : : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 :-------------------: 1998 : 1999 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- 1,000 Bushels : AL 1/ : 6 8 45.0 50.0 50.0 270 400 AR : 130 115 53.0 75.0 72.0 6,890 8,280 CO : 185 200 57.0 52.0 52.0 10,545 10,400 GA 1/ : 30 30 38.0 50.0 50.0 1,140 1,500 IL : 107 97 74.0 80.0 77.0 7,918 7,469 KS : 3,300 3,400 80.0 73.0 73.0 264,000 248,200 KY 1/ : 8 7 80.0 80.0 80.0 640 560 LA : 125 250 60.0 75.0 80.0 7,500 20,000 MS : 36 56 65.0 75.0 85.0 2,340 4,760 MO : 320 310 83.0 74.0 70.0 26,560 21,700 NE : 600 450 94.0 90.0 85.0 56,400 38,250 NM : 65 135 45.0 55.0 55.0 2,925 7,425 NC 1/ : 12 11 45.0 57.0 57.0 540 627 OK : 340 400 45.0 49.0 50.0 15,300 20,000 SC 1/ : 3 4 35.0 45.0 45.0 105 180 SD : 140 110 71.0 60.0 58.0 9,940 6,380 TN 1/ : 16 16 70.0 75.0 75.0 1,120 1,200 TX : 2,300 2,900 46.0 65.0 63.0 105,800 182,700 : US : 7,723 8,499 67.3 69.2 68.2 519,933 580,031 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Barley: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1999 : : : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 :-------------------: 1998 : 1999 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- 1,000 Bushels : AZ 1/ : 56 62 110.0 114.0 114.0 6,160 7,068 CA 1/ : 125 130 60.0 60.0 60.0 7,500 7,800 CO : 82 88 115.0 108.0 108.0 9,430 9,504 DE 1/ : 30 26 60.0 82.0 82.0 1,800 2,132 ID : 760 690 78.0 74.0 76.0 59,280 52,440 KS 1/ : 8 14 35.0 29.0 29.0 280 406 KY 1/ : 7 8 63.0 86.0 86.0 441 688 MD 1/ : 54 50 64.0 80.0 80.0 3,456 4,000 MI 1/ : 26 21 50.0 60.0 60.0 1,300 1,260 MN : 415 185 55.0 52.0 52.0 22,825 9,620 MT : 1,200 1,150 48.0 46.0 46.0 57,600 52,900 NE 1/ : 8 4 50.0 41.0 41.0 400 164 NV 1/ : 4 4 100.0 95.0 95.0 400 380 NJ 1/ : 4 4 58.0 71.0 71.0 232 284 NC 1/ : 20 19 57.0 75.0 75.0 1,140 1,425 ND : 1,930 1,300 55.0 50.0 49.0 106,150 63,700 OK 1/ : 5 3 47.0 39.0 39.0 235 117 OR : 130 135 62.0 67.0 60.0 8,060 8,100 PA 1/ : 75 70 67.0 70.0 70.0 5,025 4,900 SC 1/ : 3 2 47.0 60.0 60.0 141 120 SD : 95 74 48.0 48.0 48.0 4,560 3,552 TX 1/ : 5 10 43.0 46.0 46.0 215 460 UT : 85 85 83.0 80.0 80.0 7,055 6,800 VA 1/ : 70 60 61.0 84.0 84.0 4,270 5,040 WA : 520 490 65.0 55.0 59.0 33,800 28,910 WI : 65 65 52.0 52.0 50.0 3,380 3,250 WY : 85 85 86.0 86.0 89.0 7,310 7,565 : US : 5,867 4,834 60.1 58.2 58.5 352,445 282,585 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. All Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1999 : : : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 :-------------------: 1998 : 1999 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels ------- --- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL 1/ : 85 100 42.0 48.0 48.0 3,570 4,800 AZ 1/ : 152 83 104.2 94.6 94.6 15,840 7,853 AR 1/ : 900 870 51.0 56.0 56.0 45,900 48,720 CA 1/ : 555 455 69.5 79.7 79.7 38,550 36,250 CO 1/ : 2,610 2,452 39.7 42.6 42.6 103,710 104,440 DE 1/ : 73 73 51.0 60.0 60.0 3,723 4,380 FL 1/ : 13 9 43.0 40.0 40.0 559 360 GA 1/ : 240 225 43.0 44.0 44.0 10,320 9,900 ID : 1,280 1,350 80.0 74.5 75.4 102,410 101,820 IL 1/ : 1,200 1,020 48.0 61.0 61.0 57,600 62,220 IN 1/ : 650 510 55.0 66.0 66.0 35,750 33,660 IA 1/ : 32 34 40.0 43.0 43.0 1,280 1,462 KS 1/ : 10,100 9,200 49.0 46.0 46.0 494,900 423,200 KY 1/ : 550 430 45.0 60.0 60.0 24,750 25,800 LA 1/ : 90 110 44.0 47.0 47.0 3,960 5,170 MD 1/ : 215 200 50.0 60.0 60.0 10,750 12,000 MI 1/ : 570 600 54.0 67.0 67.0 30,780 40,200 MN : 1,982 2,218 40.6 39.7 39.7 80,444 87,994 MS 1/ : 150 165 45.0 50.0 50.0 6,750 8,250 MO 1/ : 1,250 920 46.0 51.0 51.0 57,500 46,920 MT : 5,280 5,410 32.0 30.0 29.2 168,790 158,100 NE 1/ : 1,800 1,850 46.0 48.0 48.0 82,800 88,800 NV 1/ : 14 15 88.6 98.3 98.3 1,240 1,475 NJ 1/ : 44 35 52.0 54.0 54.0 2,288 1,890 NM 1/ : 265 270 30.0 35.0 35.0 7,950 9,450 NY 1/ : 130 125 54.0 54.0 54.0 7,020 6,750 NC 1/ : 680 580 41.0 49.0 49.0 27,880 28,420 ND : 9,610 8,948 32.3 28.6 28.2 310,650 252,180 OH 1/ : 1,160 1,030 64.0 70.0 70.0 74,240 72,100 OK 1/ : 5,100 4,300 39.0 35.0 35.0 198,900 150,500 OR 1/ : 885 783 65.0 48.0 48.0 57,490 37,602 PA 1/ : 190 190 51.0 52.0 52.0 9,690 9,880 SC 1/ : 240 220 32.0 41.0 41.0 7,680 9,020 SD : 3,294 2,949 36.7 39.6 39.0 120,884 115,035 TN 1/ : 370 310 41.0 57.0 57.0 15,170 17,670 TX 1/ : 3,900 3,400 35.0 36.0 36.0 136,500 122,400 UT 1/ : 173 174 51.1 53.3 53.3 8,834 9,280 VA 1/ : 245 240 45.0 58.0 58.0 11,025 13,920 WA : 2,565 2,290 61.4 53.7 53.7 157,425 122,900 WV 1/ : 8 8 57.0 50.0 50.0 456 400 WI 1/ : 142 127 53.8 55.5 55.5 7,635 7,050 WY 1/ : 210 189 32.3 34.1 34.1 6,790 6,450 : US : 59,002 54,467 43.2 42.5 42.3 2,550,383 2,306,671 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State : : : : 1999 : : : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 :-------------------: 1998 : 1999 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AZ 1/ : 144 75 105.0 95.0 95.0 15,120 7,125 CA 1/ : 175 85 90.0 100.0 100.0 15,750 8,500 MN : 5 9 37.0 38.0 38.0 185 342 MT : 430 390 28.0 28.0 28.0 12,040 10,920 ND : 2,950 3,300 33.0 26.0 25.0 97,350 82,500 SD : 24 39 26.0 28.0 25.0 624 975 : US : 3,728 3,898 37.8 29.2 28.3 141,069 110,362 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Other Spring Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State : : : : 1999 : : : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 :-------------------: 1998 : 1999 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : CO 1/ : 60 52 71.0 70.0 70.0 4,260 3,640 ID : 510 640 77.0 75.0 77.0 39,270 49,280 MN : 1,920 2,150 41.0 40.0 40.0 78,720 86,000 MT : 3,600 4,050 30.0 28.0 27.0 108,000 109,350 NV 1/ : 8 5 80.0 95.0 95.0 640 475 ND : 6,600 5,600 32.0 30.0 30.0 211,200 168,000 OR 1/ : 95 153 48.0 44.0 44.0 4,560 6,732 SD : 1,850 1,650 32.0 35.0 34.0 59,200 56,100 UT 1/ : 23 29 58.0 60.0 60.0 1,334 1,740 WA : 465 620 45.0 42.0 42.0 20,925 26,040 WI 1/ : 7 7 30.0 30.0 30.0 210 210 WY 1/ : 10 4 39.0 40.0 40.0 390 160 : US : 15,148 14,960 34.9 34.2 33.9 528,709 507,727 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 1997-98 and Forecast September 1, 1999 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Winter : Spring : :-------------------------------------------------------------: Year : Hard : Soft : : Hard : : : Total : Red : Red : White : Red : White : Durum : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Bushels : 1997 :1,098,303 471,987 275,238 491,324 56,831 87,783 2,481,466 1998 :1,182,092 442,639 255,874 486,781 41,928 141,069 2,550,383 1999 :1,042,322 450,602 195,658 455,231 52,496 110,362 2,306,671 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Wheat class estimates are based on varietal acreage survey data available for all wheat producing States. Unless unusual situations dictate, the previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season. Washington Wheat Variety Survey indicates winter wheat is 93 percent White. Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1999 : : : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 :-------------------: 1998 : 1999 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Pounds -------- ---- 1,000 Cwt --- : AR : 1,525 1,640 5,800 5,900 5,850 88,420 95,940 CA : 478 568 6,840 7,700 7,700 32,698 43,736 LA : 620 625 4,530 4,900 4,850 28,107 30,313 MS : 268 298 5,800 5,800 5,800 15,544 17,284 MO 1/ : 143 155 5,200 5,100 5,100 7,436 7,905 TX : 283 269 5,600 6,300 6,300 15,846 16,947 : US : 3,317 3,555 5,669 5,993 5,967 188,051 212,125 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Rice: Production by Class, United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain : All : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1997 : 124,485 57,091 1,416 182,992 1998 : 141,624 44,453 1,974 188,051 1999 1/ : 150,723 57,623 3,779 212,125 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Indicated September 1, 1999, rice class estimates are based on a 5-year average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data become available through the growing season. Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1999 : : : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 :-------------------: 1998 : 1999 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels ------- --- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 320 230 22.0 29.0 18.0 7,040 4,140 AR : 3,400 3,450 25.0 29.0 28.0 85,000 96,600 DE : 216 201 33.0 28.0 26.0 7,128 5,226 FL 1/ : 30 19 23.0 30.0 30.0 690 570 GA : 220 215 21.0 23.0 20.0 4,620 4,300 IL : 10,650 10,750 44.0 43.0 43.0 468,600 462,250 IN : 5,600 5,680 42.0 41.0 40.0 235,200 227,200 IA : 10,450 10,850 48.0 48.0 50.0 501,600 542,500 KS : 2,500 2,650 30.0 32.0 27.0 75,000 71,550 KY : 1,200 1,180 30.0 27.0 21.0 36,000 24,780 LA : 1,070 1,010 21.0 30.0 25.0 22,470 25,250 MD : 460 450 31.0 26.0 26.0 14,260 11,700 MI : 1,890 1,990 39.0 40.0 40.0 73,710 79,600 MN : 6,800 6,900 42.0 42.0 41.0 285,600 282,900 MS : 2,000 1,950 24.0 27.0 25.0 48,000 48,750 MO : 5,000 5,350 34.0 34.0 29.0 170,000 155,150 NE : 3,750 4,300 44.0 44.0 44.0 165,000 189,200 NJ 1/ : 113 108 28.0 22.0 22.0 3,164 2,376 NY 2/ : 97 108 41.0 40.0 40.0 3,977 4,320 NC : 1,415 1,390 27.0 27.0 27.0 38,205 37,530 ND : 1,525 1,480 32.0 31.0 34.0 48,800 50,320 OH : 4,390 4,680 44.0 42.0 39.0 193,160 182,520 OK 1/ : 340 480 18.0 26.0 26.0 6,120 12,480 PA 1/ : 395 360 40.0 28.0 28.0 15,800 10,080 SC : 500 490 21.0 24.0 21.0 10,500 10,290 SD : 3,420 3,860 39.0 39.0 35.0 133,380 135,100 TN : 1,210 1,100 29.0 30.0 20.0 35,090 22,000 TX : 270 320 22.0 30.0 31.0 5,940 9,920 VA : 480 460 23.0 24.0 24.0 11,040 11,040 WI : 1,100 1,250 47.0 47.0 47.0 51,700 58,750 : US : 70,811 73,261 38.9 39.2 37.9 2,756,794 2,778,392 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ NY included beginning with the 1998 crop year. Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 1999 : : : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 :-------------------: 1998 : 1999 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres -- --------- Pounds -------- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : AL : 197.0 198.0 2,195 2,200 2,200 432,415 435,600 FL : 90.0 88.0 2,590 2,700 2,600 233,100 228,800 GA : 537.0 538.0 2,815 2,600 2,600 1,511,655 1,398,800 NM : 22.0 19.0 2,820 2,600 2,600 62,040 49,400 NC : 124.5 125.0 3,190 2,800 2,900 397,155 362,500 OK : 75.0 78.0 2,130 2,600 2,600 159,750 202,800 SC : 11.5 11.5 2,450 2,900 2,900 28,175 33,350 TX : 335.0 315.0 2,740 2,900 2,900 917,900 913,500 VA : 75.0 75.0 2,950 3,000 3,000 221,250 225,000 : US : 1,467.0 1,447.5 2,702 2,657 2,660 3,963,440 3,849,750 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts. Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 6,934.6 5,365.4 6,613.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 1999 : : State : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 :-------------------: 1998 : 1999 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 475.0 560.0 559 711 583 553.0 680.0 AZ : 248.0 239.0 1,177 1,115 1,155 608.0 575.0 AR : 900.0 930.0 645 743 697 1,209.0 1,350.0 CA : 620.0 585.0 887 1,067 1,190 1,146.0 1,450.0 FL 3/ : 80.0 88.0 489 524 524 81.5 96.0 GA : 1,280.0 1,450.0 578 629 596 1,542.0 1,800.0 KS 3/ : 16.5 28.0 404 411 411 13.9 24.0 LA : 525.0 595.0 586 697 686 641.0 850.0 MS : 940.0 1,180.0 737 773 716 1,444.0 1,760.0 MO : 357.0 445.0 471 593 561 350.0 520.0 NM 3/ : 60.3 67.0 640 716 716 80.4 100.0 NC : 705.0 870.0 699 687 687 1,026.0 1,245.0 OK : 120.0 190.0 560 531 531 140.0 210.0 SC : 286.0 315.0 587 686 549 350.0 360.0 TN : 445.0 595.0 589 589 516 546.0 640.0 TX : 3,300.0 5,000.0 524 509 480 3,600.0 5,000.0 VA 3/ : 91.0 109.0 765 819 819 145.1 186.0 : US :10,448.8 13,246.0 619 641 610 13,475.9 16,846.0 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 15.5 11.2 830 776 814 26.8 19.0 CA : 180.0 259.0 941 1,075 1,112 352.8 600.0 NM : 7.3 7.0 658 651 651 10.0 9.5 TX : 32.0 39.0 791 738 738 52.7 60.0 : US : 234.8 316.2 904 1,013 1,045 442.3 688.5 : All : AL : 475.0 560.0 559 711 583 553.0 680.0 AZ : 263.5 250.2 1,156 1,099 1,140 634.8 594.0 AR : 900.0 930.0 645 743 697 1,209.0 1,350.0 CA : 800.0 844.0 899 1,069 1,166 1,498.8 2,050.0 FL 3/ : 80.0 88.0 489 524 524 81.5 96.0 GA : 1,280.0 1,450.0 578 629 596 1,542.0 1,800.0 KS 3/ : 16.5 28.0 404 411 411 13.9 24.0 LA : 525.0 595.0 586 697 686 641.0 850.0 MS : 940.0 1,180.0 737 773 716 1,444.0 1,760.0 MO : 357.0 445.0 471 593 561 350.0 520.0 NM : 67.6 74.0 642 710 710 90.4 109.5 NC : 705.0 870.0 699 687 687 1,026.0 1,245.0 OK : 120.0 190.0 560 531 531 140.0 210.0 SC : 286.0 315.0 587 686 549 350.0 360.0 TN : 445.0 595.0 589 589 516 546.0 640.0 TX : 3,332.0 5,039.0 526 511 482 3,652.7 5,060.0 VA 3/ : 91.0 109.0 765 819 819 145.1 186.0 : US :10,683.6 13,562.2 625 649 621 13,918.2 17,534.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1997-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Area Planted :Area Harvested : Yield : Production Group and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Acres ------- --- Cwt --- --- 1,000 Cwt -- : Winter 1/ : CA : 7.0 7.8 7.0 7.8 220 210 1,540 1,638 FL : 8.5 10.1 8.0 9.9 180 200 1,440 1,980 : Total : 15.5 17.9 15.0 17.7 199 204 2,980 3,618 : Spring 1/ : AL : 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 130 175 221 280 AZ : 8.1 9.4 8.1 9.4 280 290 2,268 2,726 CA : 18.5 19.5 18.5 19.5 335 365 6,198 7,118 FL : 35.8 29.8 34.5 29.0 213 261 7,358 7,560 Hastings : 25.5 22.5 24.5 22.0 235 280 5,758 6,160 Other FL : 10.3 7.3 10.0 7.0 160 200 1,600 1,400 NC : 18.0 17.0 17.5 16.5 190 195 3,325 3,218 TX : 10.8 10.3 10.3 9.8 170 235 1,751 2,303 : Total : 93.0 87.7 90.6 85.8 233 270 21,121 23,205 : Summer : AL : 4.4 3.5 4.3 2.8 130 220 559 616 CA : 6.2 6.7 6.1 6.7 355 360 2,166 2,412 CO : 7.7 7.9 7.5 7.7 350 345 2,625 2,657 DE : 4.6 4.3 4.6 4.3 220 250 1,012 1,075 IL : 5.8 4.9 4.9 4.7 290 300 1,421 1,410 IA : 1.4 1.0 1.3 0.9 235 185 306 167 MD : 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.8 235 220 1,081 1,056 MO : 9.6 8.0 8.8 6.3 215 305 1,892 1,922 NE : 4.5 4.9 4.4 4.5 365 320 1,606 1,440 NJ : 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 270 235 702 564 NM : 4.3 4.3 3.7 4.3 260 290 962 1,247 NC : 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 95 90 105 90 TX : 9.1 8.6 8.2 8.0 380 370 3,116 2,960 VA : 7.0 6.5 6.0 6.0 230 165 1,380 990 : Total : 73.0 69.0 68.1 64.4 278 289 18,933 18,606 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnotes at end of table. --continued Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1997-99 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Area Planted :Area Harvested : Yield : Production Group and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--------- 1,000 Acres --------- -- Cwt -- 1,000 Cwt : Fall 2/ : CA : 10.3 9.8 10.3 9.8 360 3,708 CO : 75.8 77.2 75.7 77.0 335 25,360 ID : 410.0 400.0 408.0 398.0 338 138,000 10 SW Co: 28.0 26.0 28.0 26.0 450 12,600 Other ID: 382.0 374.0 380.0 372.0 330 125,400 IN : 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.9 320 1,600 ME : 65.5 68.0 64.5 67.0 280 18,060 MA : 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 235 682 MI : 47.0 48.0 46.5 47.5 315 14,648 MN : 82.0 70.0 73.0 65.0 290 21,170 MT : 10.6 11.0 10.6 11.0 300 3,180 NE : 22.0 21.6 21.8 21.4 375 8,175 NV : 7.0 5.0 7.0 5.0 400 2,800 NM : 6.2 6.6 5.9 6.6 380 2,242 NY : 27.6 26.0 27.0 25.5 270 7,290 ND : 126.0 125.0 122.0 121.0 235 28,670 OH : 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.6 250 1,200 OR : 59.0 58.0 58.0 57.5 452 26,229 Malheur : 11.5 10.5 11.4 10.5 400 4,560 Other OR: 47.5 47.5 46.6 47.0 465 21,669 PA : 14.5 14.5 14.0 14.0 240 3,360 RI : 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 210 147 SD : 5.0 3.5 4.8 3.3 260 1,248 UT : 2.7 2.0 2.6 2.0 280 728 WA : 165.0 170.0 165.0 170.0 565 93,225 WI : 84.5 86.0 83.5 85.0 370 30,895 WY : 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 300 120 : Total :1,235.1 1,216.4 1,214.0 1,200.3 356 432,737 : US :1,416.6 1,391.0 1,387.7 1,368.2 343 475,771 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ The forecast of fall potato production will be released November 10, 1999. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Acres ----- ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds -------- : CT 1/ : 2,815 3,030 1,519 1,630 4,128 4,276 4,939 FL : 6,800 6,000 2,515 2,600 19,053 17,102 15,600 GA : 41,000 35,000 2,200 1,900 89,225 90,200 66,500 IN : 8,500 6,500 2,000 2,000 18,690 17,000 13,000 KY : 226,260 226,350 1,961 1,773 497,928 443,628 401,408 MD : 6,500 6,500 1,400 1,350 12,000 9,100 8,775 MA 1/ : 1,265 1,250 1,413 1,750 1,913 1,788 2,187 MO 1/ : 2,700 2,300 2,130 1,950 7,035 5,751 4,485 NC : 251,100 218,400 2,197 2,245 731,199 551,730 490,320 OH : 9,800 9,800 1,830 1,620 22,230 17,934 15,876 PA : 7,800 6,200 2,015 1,717 17,020 15,720 10,646 SC : 45,000 39,000 2,050 2,150 126,360 92,250 83,850 TN : 59,415 59,160 1,870 1,809 114,292 111,100 107,022 VA : 45,000 38,600 2,131 2,120 117,576 95,898 81,835 WV 1/ : 1,600 1,700 1,350 1,300 3,060 2,160 2,210 WI : 2,100 1,320 1,687 2,114 5,690 3,542 2,790 : US : 717,655 661,110 2,061 1,984 1,787,399 1,479,179 1,311,443 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 69,000 60,000 2,285 2,250 157,665 135,000 VA : 33,000 26,000 2,220 2,200 73,260 57,200 US : 102,000 86,000 2,264 2,235 230,925 192,200 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 143,000 123,000 2,240 2,300 320,320 282,900 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 31,000 27,000 2,000 2,200 62,000 59,400 SC : 45,000 39,000 2,050 2,150 92,250 83,850 US : 76,000 66,000 2,030 2,170 154,250 143,250 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 6,800 6,000 2,515 2,600 17,102 15,600 GA : 41,000 35,000 2,200 1,900 90,200 66,500 US : 47,800 41,000 2,245 2,002 107,302 82,100 Total 11-14 : 368,800 316,000 2,204 2,217 812,797 700,450 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 1,500 1,500 1,560 1,650 2,340 2,475 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 3,850 3,650 2,315 2,100 8,913 7,665 TN : 7,300 7,000 2,330 2,200 17,009 15,400 US : 11,150 10,650 2,325 2,166 25,922 23,065 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 3,600 3,450 2,805 2,400 10,098 8,280 TN : 590 560 2,500 2,200 1,475 1,232 US : 4,190 4,010 2,762 2,372 11,573 9,512 Total 21-23 : 16,840 16,160 2,365 2,169 39,835 35,052 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 8,500 6,500 2,000 2,000 17,000 13,000 KY : 215,000 215,000 1,935 1,750 416,025 376,250 MO 1/ : 2,700 2,300 2,130 1,950 5,751 4,485 NC : 8,100 8,400 1,450 1,550 11,745 13,020 OH : 9,800 9,800 1,830 1,620 17,934 15,876 TN : 51,000 51,000 1,795 1,750 91,545 89,250 VA : 10,400 11,000 1,940 2,000 20,176 22,000 WV 1/ : 1,600 1,700 1,350 1,300 2,160 2,210 US : 307,100 305,700 1,896 1,754 582,336 536,091 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 6,500 6,500 1,400 1,350 9,100 8,775 PA : 3,300 3,000 1,900 1,650 6,270 4,950 US : 9,800 9,500 1,568 1,445 15,370 13,725 Total 31-32 : 316,900 315,200 1,886 1,744 597,706 549,816 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1998 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark : Air-cured : Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 2,450 2,750 2,280 2,150 5,586 5,913 TN : 525 600 2,040 1,900 1,071 1,140 US : 2,975 3,350 2,238 2,105 6,657 7,053 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 1,360 1,500 2,210 2,200 3,006 3,300 Type 37, VA Sun-cured: Belt : VA : 100 100 1,220 1,600 122 160 Total 35-37 : 4,435 4,950 2,206 2,124 9,785 10,513 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 4,500 3,200 2,100 1,780 9,450 5,696 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT 1/ : 1,435 1,480 1,600 1,740 2,296 2,575 MA 1/ : 925 870 1,445 1,815 1,337 1,579 US : 2,360 2,350 1,539 1,768 3,633 4,154 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI: WI : 1,500 940 1,735 2,200 2,603 2,068 Type 55, Northern WI: WI : 600 380 1,565 1,900 939 722 Total 54-55 : 2,100 1,320 1,687 2,114 3,542 2,790 Total 51-55 : 4,460 3,670 1,609 1,892 7,175 6,944 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper: Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT 1/ : 1,380 1,550 1,435 1,525 1,980 2,364 MA 1/ : 340 380 1,325 1,600 451 608 US : 1,720 1,930 1,413 1,540 2,431 2,972 All Cigar Types : Total 41-61 : 10,680 8,800 1,784 1,774 19,056 15,612 : All Tobacco : 717,655 661,110 2,061 1,984 1,479,179 1,311,443 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Oranges: Utilized Production by State and United States, 1997-98, 1998-99 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 1/ 2/ 3/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1997-98 : 1998-99 : 1999-00 : 1997-98 : 1998-99 : 1999-00 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 Boxes ------ ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Early Mid & : Navel 4/ : AZ : 350 550 13 21 CA : 44,000 21,000 40,000 1,650 787 1,500 FL : 140,000 112,000 6,300 5,040 TX : 1,350 1,250 57 53 US : 185,700 134,800 8,020 5,901 Valencia : AZ : 650 600 25 22 CA : 25,000 17,000 938 638 FL : 104,000 73,700 4,680 3,317 TX : 175 180 7 8 US : 129,825 91,480 5,650 3,985 All : AZ : 1,000 1,150 38 43 CA : 69,000 38,000 2,588 1,425 FL : 244,000 185,700 10,980 8,357 TX : 1,525 1,430 64 61 US : 315,525 226,280 13,670 9,886 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1997-98 and 1998-99 revised. Revised grapefruit and other citrus fruit totals will be released September 23, 1999, in "Citrus Fruits, 1999 Summary". 2/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 3/ Net lbs. per box: AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85. 4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : CA : 100.0 105.0 28.3 31.0 2,970 2,830 3,255 CO : 57.3 68.0 22.7 21.6 1,308 1,301 1,469 ID : 203.0 210.0 27.1 25.3 5,210 5,501 5,313 MI : 173.0 187.0 16.0 19.0 3,040 2,768 3,553 MN : 458.0 469.0 21.2 20.0 8,251 9,710 9,380 MT : 62.4 61.8 22.6 23.5 1,224 1,410 1,452 NE : 47.4 66.8 19.7 19.8 1,013 934 1,323 NM 2/ : 49 ND : 242.6 253.0 22.2 21.0 4,205 5,386 5,313 OH : 1.1 1.2 17.3 18.5 17 19 22 OR : 17.7 19.7 26.6 25.0 494 471 493 TX 2/ : 270 WA : 35.8 27.0 33.3 31.8 595 1,192 859 WY : 53.4 57.0 20.3 21.0 1,240 1,084 1,197 : : US : 1,451.7 1,525.5 22.5 22.0 29,886 32,606 33,629 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted beets in CA. 2/ No acres planted in 1998 or 1999. Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -------- 1,000 Tons -------- : FL : 447.0 456.0 40.1 39.0 16,236 17,925 17,784 HI : 32.5 35.0 86.1 84.0 3,009 2,798 2,940 LA : 435.0 465.0 29.7 33.0 11,562 12,920 15,345 TX : 32.6 31.5 32.6 32.0 902 1,064 1,008 : US : 947.1 987.5 36.6 37.5 31,709 34,707 37,077 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Jul : 3,670 3,490 2,440 2,030 3,095 3,250 Aug : 3,650 3,515 2,420 2,025 2,785 3,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nuts: Utilized Production, In-shell Basis, by Crop and State, 1997-98 and Forecasted September 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : Hazelnuts : OR : 46,850 15,400 37,700 WA : 150 100 300 Total : 47,000 15,500 38,000 : Walnuts : CA : 269,000 227,000 280,000 : : 1,000 Pounds : Pistachios : CA : 180,000 188,000 110,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1998-99 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 6,340.0 5,167.0 5,867.0 4,834.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 80,187.0 77,611.0 72,604.0 70,955.0 Corn for Silage : 5,919.0 Hay, All : 60,016.0 62,051.0 Alfalfa : 23,642.0 23,968.0 All Other : 36,374.0 38,083.0 Oats : 4,902.0 4,698.0 2,765.0 2,631.0 Rice : 3,345.0 3,600.0 3,317.0 3,555.0 Rye : 1,571.0 1,573.0 418.0 396.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,626.0 9,299.0 7,723.0 8,499.0 Sorghum for Silage : 305.0 Wheat, All : 65,871.0 62,733.0 59,002.0 54,467.0 Winter : 46,449.0 43,419.0 40,126.0 35,609.0 Durum : 3,805.0 4,015.0 3,728.0 3,898.0 Other Spring : 15,617.0 15,299.0 15,148.0 14,960.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,127.0 1,095.0 1,092.0 1,067.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 336.0 341.0 329.0 334.0 Mustard Seed : 98.9 59.7 95.6 58.2 Peanuts : 1,521.0 1,468.0 1,467.0 1,447.5 Rapeseed : 4.8 3.5 4.7 3.5 Safflower : 303.0 313.0 285.0 294.0 Soybeans for Beans : 72,375.0 74,145.0 70,811.0 73,261.0 Sunflower : 3,553.0 3,676.0 3,476.0 3,593.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,392.5 14,601.2 10,683.6 13,562.2 Upland : 13,064.3 14,283.0 10,448.8 13,246.0 Amer-Pima : 328.2 318.2 234.8 316.2 Sugarbeets : 1,498.8 1,560.6 1,451.7 1,525.5 Sugarcane : 947.1 987.5 Tobacco : 717.7 661.1 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 9.0 7.4 Dry Edible Beans : 2,010.1 1,992.6 1,913.9 1,903.0 Dry Edible Peas : 323.4 309.1 Lentils : 162.0 158.5 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.1 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.4 0.4 Hops : 36.6 34.2 Peppermint Oil : 124.0 Potatoes, All : 1,416.6 1,391.0 1,387.7 1,368.2 Winter : 15.5 17.9 15.0 17.7 Spring : 93.0 87.7 90.6 85.8 Summer : 73.0 69.0 68.1 64.4 Fall : 1,235.1 1,216.4 1,214.0 1,200.3 Spearmint Oil : 27.4 Sweet Potatoes : 87.2 88.1 83.8 85.2 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1998-99 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 60.1 58.5 352,445 282,585 Corn for Grain : " : 134.4 132.2 9,761,085 9,380,947 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.0 94,525 Hay, All : " : 2.52 2.59 151,338 160,769 Alfalfa : " : 3.47 3.47 82,010 83,160 All Other : " : 1.91 2.04 69,328 77,609 Oats : Bu : 60.4 61.6 167,122 162,096 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 5,669 5,967 188,051 212,125 Rye : Bu : 28.2 11,795 Sorghum for Grain : " : 67.3 68.2 519,933 580,031 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 11.4 3,487 Wheat, All : Bu : 43.2 42.3 2,550,383 2,306,671 Winter : " : 46.9 47.4 1,880,605 1,688,582 Durum : " : 37.8 28.3 141,069 110,362 Other Spring : " : 34.9 33.9 528,709 507,727 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,455 1,588,620 Cottonseed 3/ 4/ : Ton : 5,365 6,613 Flaxseed : Bu : 20.4 6,708 Mustard Seed : Lb : 855 81,750 Peanuts : " : 2,702 2,660 3,963,440 3,849,750 Rapeseed : " : 1,353 6,360 Safflower : " : 1,446 412,085 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 38.9 37.9 2,756,794 2,778,392 Sunflower : Lb : 1,509 5,246,701 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 625 621 13,918.2 17,534.5 Upland 2/ : " : 619 610 13,475.9 16,846.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 904 1,045 442.3 688.5 Sugarbeets : Ton : 22.5 22.0 32,606 33,629 Sugarcane : " : 36.6 37.5 34,707 37,077 Tobacco : Lb : 2,061 1,984 1,479,179 1,311,443 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,405 104 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,611 1,656 30,828 31,506 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,920 5,934 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,223 1,938 Wrinkled Seed Peas : " : 674 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,560 9,500 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 50,000 46,000 18,000 16,100 Hops : " : 1,625 1,813 59,548 62,080 Peppermint Oil : " : 78 9,727 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 343 475,771 Winter : " : 199 204 2,980 3,618 Spring : " : 233 270 21,121 23,205 Summer : " : 278 289 18,933 18,606 Fall : " : 356 432,737 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 109 2,987 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 148 12,382 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. 4/ Revised from Crop Production released May 12, 1999. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1997-99 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,885 2,626 2,552 K-Early Citrus (FL) : " : 7 2 4 Lemons : " : 962 935 817 Oranges 3/ : " : 12,692 13,670 9,886 Tangelos (FL) : " : 178 128 115 Tangerines : " : 425 360 337 Temples (FL) : " : 108 101 81 : : Non-Citrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 10,323.8 11,387.4 10,562.8 Apricots : Ton : 139.2 118.3 130.0 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 13,700.0 21,000.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,290.9 5,903.0 6,556.9 Olives (CA) : " : 104.0 90.0 125.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 38,800.0 39,900.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,624.6 2,429.3 2,502.1 Pears : Ton : 1,042.5 955.1 942.9 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 214.0 108.0 180.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 25.5 25.6 25.1 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 759,000 520,000 830,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 47.0 15.5 38.0 Pecans 4/ : Lb : 335,000 146,400 Pistachios (CA) : " : 180,000 188,000 110,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 269.0 227.0 280.0 Maple Syrup : 1,000 Gal: 1,298 1,159 1,180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1996-97, 1997-98, and 1998-99. 3/ Orange production revised. Grapefruit and other citrus fruit revisions will be released on September 23, 1999 in "Citrus Fruits, 1999 Summary". 4/ First forecast of 1999 crop will be October 1, 1999. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1998-99 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,565,730 2,091,030 2,374,320 1,956,270 Corn for Grain 2/ :32,450,880 31,408,400 29,382,110 28,714,780 Corn for Silage : 2,395,360 Hay, All 3/ : 24,287,880 25,111,420 Alfalfa : 9,567,680 9,699,610 All Other : 14,720,190 15,411,810 Oats : 1,983,790 1,901,230 1,118,970 1,064,740 Rice : 1,353,690 1,456,880 1,342,360 1,438,670 Rye : 635,770 636,580 169,160 160,260 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,895,550 3,763,210 3,125,420 3,439,460 Sorghum for Silage : 123,430 Wheat, All 3/ :26,657,330 25,387,420 23,877,520 22,042,250 Winter :18,797,450 17,571,240 16,238,590 14,410,610 Durum : 1,539,850 1,624,830 1,508,680 1,577,480 Other Spring : 6,320,040 6,191,350 6,130,240 6,054,160 : Oilseeds : Canola : 456,090 443,140 441,920 431,800 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 135,980 138,000 133,140 135,170 Mustard Seed : 40,020 24,160 38,690 23,550 Peanuts : 615,530 594,080 593,680 585,790 Rapeseed : 1,940 1,420 1,900 1,420 Safflower : 122,620 126,670 115,340 118,980 Soybeans for Beans :29,289,440 30,005,740 28,656,500 29,647,990 Sunflower : 1,437,860 1,487,640 1,406,700 1,454,050 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,419,810 5,908,960 4,323,550 5,488,490 Upland : 5,286,990 5,780,190 4,228,520 5,360,520 Amer-Pima : 132,820 128,770 95,020 127,960 Sugarbeets : 606,550 631,560 587,490 617,350 Sugarcane : 385,060 399,630 Tobacco : 290,430 267,540 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 3,640 2,990 Dry Edible Beans : 813,470 806,390 774,540 770,130 Dry Edible Peas : 130,880 125,090 Lentils : 65,560 64,140 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,470 Ginger Root (HI) : 150 140 Hops : 14,830 13,860 Peppermint Oil : 50,180 Potatoes, All 3/ : 573,280 562,920 561,590 553,700 Winter : 6,270 7,240 6,070 7,160 Spring : 37,640 35,490 36,660 34,720 Summer : 29,540 27,920 27,560 26,060 Fall : 499,830 492,260 491,290 485,750 Spearmint Oil : 11,090 Sweet Potatoes : 35,290 35,650 33,910 34,480 Taro (HI) 4/ : 200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1998-99 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.23 3.15 7,673,580 6,152,560 Corn for Grain : 8.44 8.30 247,942,980 238,287,030 Corn for Silage : 35.80 85,751,640 Hay, All 2/ : 5.65 5.81 137,291,520 145,847,180 Alfalfa : 7.78 7.78 74,398,220 75,441,480 All Other : 4.27 4.57 62,893,300 70,405,700 Oats : 2.17 2.21 2,425,770 2,352,820 Rice : 6.35 6.69 8,529,850 9,621,830 Rye : 1.77 299,610 Sorghum for Grain : 4.23 4.28 13,206,910 14,733,470 Sorghum for Silage : 25.63 3,163,350 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.91 2.85 69,410,050 62,777,300 Winter : 3.15 3.19 51,181,680 45,955,670 Durum : 2.54 1.90 3,839,270 3,003,560 Other Spring : 2.35 2.28 14,389,100 13,818,060 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.63 720,590 Cottonseed 3/ : 4,867,410 5,999,210 Flaxseed : 1.28 170,390 Mustard Seed : 0.96 37,080 Peanuts : 3.03 2.98 1,797,790 1,746,220 Rapeseed : 1.52 2,880 Safflower : 1.62 186,920 Soybeans for Beans : 2.62 2.55 75,027,640 75,615,440 Sunflower : 1.69 2,379,860 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.70 0.70 3,030,330 3,817,690 Upland : 0.69 0.68 2,934,030 3,667,780 Amer-Pima : 1.01 1.17 96,300 149,900 Sugarbeets : 50.35 49.42 29,579,670 30,507,720 Sugarcane : 80.24 84.17 30,895,990 33,635,690 Tobacco : 2.31 2.22 670,940 594,860 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.58 4,720 Dry Edible Beans : 1.81 1.86 1,398,330 1,429,090 Dry Edible Peas : 2.15 269,160 Lentils : 1.37 87,910 Wrinkled Seed Peas : 30,570 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.75 4,310 Ginger Root (HI) : 56.04 51.56 8,160 7,300 Hops : 1.82 2.03 27,010 28,160 Peppermint Oil : 0.09 4,410 Potatoes, All 2/ : 38.43 21,580,610 Winter : 22.27 22.91 135,170 164,110 Spring : 26.13 30.31 958,030 1,052,560 Summer : 31.16 32.38 858,790 843,950 Fall : 39.95 19,628,620 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 1,350 Sweet Potatoes : 16.56 561,640 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,720 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1997-99 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,617,230 2,382,270 2,315,140 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 6,350 1,810 3,630 Lemons : 872,710 848,220 741,170 Oranges 3/ : 11,513,990 12,401,220 8,968,430 Tangelos (FL) : 161,480 116,120 104,330 Tangerines : 385,550 326,590 305,720 Temples (FL) : 97,980 91,630 73,480 : Non-Citrus : Apples : 4,682,800 5,165,240 4,791,210 Apricots : 126,310 107,320 117,930 Bananas (HI) : 6,210 9,530 Grapes : 6,614,190 5,355,070 5,948,320 Olives (CA) : 94,350 81,650 113,400 Papayas (HI) : 17,600 18,100 Peaches : 1,190,500 1,101,910 1,134,930 Pears : 945,740 866,490 855,380 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 194,140 97,980 163,290 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 23,130 23,220 22,770 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 344,280 235,870 376,480 Hazelnuts : 42,640 14,060 34,470 Pecans 4/ : 151,950 66,410 Pistachios (CA) : 81,650 85,280 49,900 Walnuts (CA) : 244,030 205,930 254,010 Maple Syrup : 6,490 5,790 5,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 1999 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1996-97, 1997-98, and 1998-99. 3/ Orange production revised. Grapefruit and other citrus fruit revisions will be released on September 23, 1999 in "Citrus Fruits, 1999 Summary". 4/ First forecast of 1999 crop will be October 1, 1999. Corn for Grain: Plant Population The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 7 major corn producing states during 1999. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual field counts from this survey. Corn for Grain: Plant Population per Acre, Selected States, 1995-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Sep : 24,000 24,350 25,000 25,550 25,750 : Nov : 23,650 24,200 24,900 25,400 : : IN : Sep : 23,900 23,550 23,700 24,350 25,250 : Nov : 24,000 23,500 23,800 24,300 : : IA : Sep : 24,800 25,000 25,700 25,700 25,850 : Nov : 24,650 24,950 25,500 25,600 : : MN : Sep : 26,400 26,500 26,300 27,750 26,750 : Nov : 26,350 26,600 26,600 27,650 : : NE : Sep : 22,600 22,750 22,850 23,350 23,200 : Nov : 22,500 22,700 22,850 23,050 : : OH : Sep : 23,400 23,100 23,450 25,350 25,000 : Nov : 23,300 22,750 23,500 25,450 : : WI : Sep : 24,600 24,800 24,750 26,600 26,050 : Nov : 24,000 24,900 24,800 25,850 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- All Spring Wheat: Head Population The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in three spring wheat producing states during 1999. Randomly selected plots in wheat fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. The final number of heads is determined when the plots are harvested at maturity. These data will be published in January. All Spring Wheat: Heads per Square Foot, Selected States, 1995-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop and State :Month : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : Other Spring : : : : MN : Sep : 45.6 41.6 47.7 45.8 49.0 : Final: 45.6 41.6 47.8 45.8 : : MT : Sep : 30.4 25.2 25.8 29.5 24.5 : Final: 30.4 25.1 25.8 29.5 : : ND : Sep : 39.5 36.0 37.8 38.5 37.2 : Final: 39.5 36.1 37.7 38.3 : : Durum : : : : ND : Sep : 24.8 24.7 22.8 27.5 22.9 : Final: 24.8 24.7 22.8 27.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybeans: Pods with Beans The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 8 soybean producing States during 1999. Randomly selected plots of soybeans fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet, Selected States, 1995-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep 1/: : Nov : 1,755 1,521 2,098 1,640 : Final : 1,609 1,481 1,956 1,613 : : IL : Sep : 1,816 1,505 1,828 2,087 1,917 : Nov : 1,764 1,573 1,708 1,902 : Final : 1,764 1,581 1,708 1,906 : : IN : Sep : 1,755 1,416 1,622 1,883 1,771 : Nov : 1,677 1,470 1,532 1,709 : Final : 1,677 1,457 1,532 1,709 : : IA : Sep : 1,739 1,654 1,894 1,914 2,142 : Nov : 1,611 1,463 1,458 1,745 : Final : 1,616 1,463 1,461 1,748 : : MN : Sep : 1,613 1,543 1,585 1,598 1,612 : Nov : 1,501 1,487 1,506 1,450 : Final : 1,501 1,487 1,506 1,442 : : MO : Sep : 895 1,491 1,539 1,847 1,242 : Nov : 1,462 1,688 1,591 1,878 : Final : 1,469 1,655 1,650 1,931 : : NE : Sep : 1,404 1,715 1,716 1,849 1,877 : Nov : 1,420 1,514 1,345 1,810 : Final : 1,420 1,514 1,342 1,810 : : OH : Sep : 1,790 1,452 1,711 1,887 1,699 : Nov : 1,647 1,378 1,485 1,710 : Final : 1,650 1,383 1,467 1,710 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Not available due to plant immaturity. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting an Objective Yield survey in 12 cotton producing states during 1999. Randomly selected plots of cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey for 5 States which accounted for 60 percent of the 1998 U.S. upland cotton production. The remaining 7 States are new to the Objective Yield survey and do not have 3 years of historical counts available. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, September 1995-99, and November and Final, 1995-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep : 850 857 975 637 720 : Nov : 689 741 810 633 : Final : 689 741 811 640 : : CA : Sep : 751 707 701 755 921 : Nov : 682 748 697 665 : Final : 680 744 697 655 : : LA : Sep : 679 665 639 694 722 : Nov : 615 607 643 600 : Final : 615 607 643 600 : : MS : Sep : 682 816 908 835 761 : Nov : 607 731 835 823 : Final : 607 729 833 821 : : TX : Sep : 423 383 500 498 465 : Nov : 409 498 468 477 : Final : 415 498 458 482 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs, per 40 feet of row. In November, excludes small bolls. August Weather Summary The extreme heat and dryness that developed in late July from Oklahoma and Texas to the southern Atlantic Coast persisted through August, stressing pastures and immature summer crops, including cotton and soybeans. Meanwhile, heat did not return to the Corn Belt after late July, keeping heat stress on Midwestern corn and soybeans at a minimum. Unfavorably dry weather persisted, however, across the southern and eastern Corn Belt, particularly in Missouri and the lower Ohio Valley. In contrast, wet conditions prevailed from the Southwest to the northern Plains and upper Midwest, courtesy of an active monsoon and numerous cold fronts. Beneficial rain fell in the Northwest, but dry conditions and lightning strikes sparked wildfire activity in California and the Great Basin. Much-needed rain also fell in the northern Mid-Atlantic region, tempering the 14-month drought. In the tropics, Bret became the first hurricane to cross the Texas coast this decade on August 22, arriving as a Category 3 storm (125 mph sustained winds) in sparsely populated Kenedy County, Texas. Hurricane Dennis, a category 2 storm (100 to 105 mph winds) brushed the coastal Carolinas on August 29-31, producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and beach erosion. Although no tropical systems affected southern Florida, rainfall was well above normal. Monthly rainfall was more than 200 percent of normal from the Four Corners region to the central High Plains, and in a few locations on the northern Plains and interior Northwest. Precipitation was less than 25 percent of normal in many areas from central Texas to the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, in portions of the Great Basin, and in coastal and southern California. Monthly temperatures averaged 2 to 5 degrees F above normal from Texas and Oklahoma to the southern Atlantic Coast. Temperatures were up to 3 degrees F above normal in the northern High Plains and the Northwest. In contrast, readings averaged as much as 3 degrees F below normal in the Corn Belt and as much as 5 degrees F below normal in California's San Joaquin Valley. Near-normal temperatures prevailed in the Mid-Atlantic region. General Crop Comments: Mild temperatures eased crop stress in the central and northern Great Plains and most of the Corn Belt. Timely rains provided adequate moisture for crop development in parts of the central and western Corn Belt and central Great Plains. Increasing moisture shortages stressed crops in the southern and eastern Corn Belt and most of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Dry conditions aided small grain harvest across the Northern States from the Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest and row crop harvest in the southern States from the Great Plains to the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Field preparations began for winter wheat seeding, but planting and tillage were delayed while growers waited for rain to recharge soil moisture supplies. Crop development remained slow in the Southwest due to persistent cool weather. Corn rapidly entered the silking stage in South Dakota, Colorado, and Pennsylvania early in the month. In Ohio, 40 percent of the crop entered the dough stage during the first week of the month and was nearly twice the normal rate on August 15. As mid-month approached, corn in the dough stage rapidly advanced in Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Fields quickly progressed to the dent stage along the Ohio River Valley in the southern Corn Belt, with more than half of the acreage denting in Missouri and Kentucky by August 15. After midmonth, acreage entering the dough stage rapidly increased in Colorado, while denting accelerated in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Kansas. As of August 29, corn in the dough stage or beyond was at 92 percent, and 62 percent of the crop was at the dent stage or beyond. Development was about 1 week ahead of the 5-year averages of 81 and 44 percent, respectively. Twelve percent of the crop was mature by the end of the month, as progress neared 50 percent along the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys in the southern Corn Belt. Harvest began in the central and High Plains regions of Texas and was virtually complete in the southern and coastal regions of the State. Ninety-six percent of the soybean acreage was blooming by mid-August, slightly ahead of last year and the average. Acreage entering the blooming stage remained active in the northern Mississippi Delta and lower Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys after mid-month. Soybeans setting pods advanced well ahead of the average in the eastern Corn Belt, and slightly ahead of normal in the western Corn Belt. Nearly one-fourth of the acreage in Indiana and almost one-third of the crop in Ohio began setting pods during the first week of the month. As mid-month approached, pod setting accelerated in the central and western Corn Belt, advancing about 25 percentage points in Nebraska and Minnesota and nearly 20 percentage points in Illinois and Kansas during the second week of the month. Warm weather quickly ripened fields in Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio late in the month. On August 29, more than half of the acreage was dropping leaves in Mississippi, 34 percentage points ahead of the average. A few isolated fields began dropping leaves in the western Corn Belt, while ripening accelerated in the eastern and southern Corn Belt. Above normal temperatures promoted cotton development in the southern Plains, Mississippi Delta, and Southeast during most of August. Conditions steadily deteriorated throughout the month in most areas, as soil moisture levels diminished. Isolated showers temporarily boosted conditions along parts of the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coastal Plains. Cool weather hindered growth in California most of the month. By August 29, bolls were opening on 35 percent of the cotton acreage, as warm weather accelerated ripening in Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. Harvest began in southern Texas and advanced northward into the Blacklands, Central Texas, and the Upper Coast as the month progressed. As the month began, winter wheat harvest was nearly complete, while spring wheat and barley harvest gained momentum. Dry weather aided harvest efforts in the northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest, but late developing fields limited the harvest pace for most of the month. The oat harvest proceeded ahead of normal in the Corn Belt, but slow crop development and late-month rains delayed progress in Minnesota and North Dakota. Growers prepared fields for seeding winter wheat in the southern and central Great Plains, but planting was delayed due to dry soils. Warm weather promoted rice development in the lower Mississippi Valley as fields rapidly entered the heading stage in Arkansas and Mississippi. Development lagged in California due to persistent cool weather. In Texas and Louisiana, the harvest began early in the month and remained active as dry weather prevailed most of the month along the western Gulf Coast. The harvest pace gained momentum in inland areas of the Mississippi Delta late in the month. As of August 29, the crop was 26 percent harvested. Sorghum development proceeded slightly behind normal for most of the month, with 94 percent headed, 53 percent turning color, and 28 percent mature on August 29. Fields rapidly progressed to the heading stage in New Mexico and South Dakota late in the month. Fields turning color advanced 29 percentage points in Illinois during the last week in August. Hot weather quickly ripened fields in the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Corn for grain: Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 71.0 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 2 percent from 1998. The September 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record level stalk count for the seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The September forecasted ears per acre are the highest on record and, if realized, would exceed the previous record final ears per acre set in 1998. Ear measurements from the sample plots indicate a length equal to last year and the 5-year average. As of August 29, 62 percent of the acreage was reported dented in the 17 major States. This compares with 62 percent last year and 44 percent for the 5-year average. Corn rated in good to excellent condition totaled 57 percent compared to 69 percent for a year ago. Corn rapidly entered the silking stage in South Dakota, Colorado, and Pennsylvania early in the month. As mid-month approached, corn in the dough stage rapidly advanced in Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Fields quickly progressed to the dent stage along the Ohio River Valley in the southern Corn Belt, with more than half of the acreage denting in Missouri and Kentucky by August 15. Harvest began in the central and High Plains regions of Texas and was virtually complete in the southern and coastal regions of the State. In Iowa, forecasted stalk and ear populations are both at record levels when compared to final counts. Ear length is above the 1994-98 average and 1998. Sixty-four percent of the corn was dented as of August 29, compared to 64 percent in 1998 and the 5-year average of 41 percent. Corn condition was rated 70 percent good to excellent. Forecasted stalk and ear counts are at a record high level for Illinois when compared to final counts. Ear length is below last year but equal to the 5-year average. Seventy-five percent of the corn was dented, compared with 60 percent last year and 48 percent for the 5-year average. Forty percent of the corn was rated in good to excellent condition. In Indiana and Nebraska, forecasted stalk and ear counts are at a record high. Ear length is below both last year and the average for both states. The corn dented in Indiana was at 74 percent compared to 55 percent for last year and the average of 40 percent. The majority (72 percent) of corn in Indiana was rated in fair to good condition. Nebraska corn was 52 percent dented on August 29 compared with 67 percent in 1998 and the average of 45 percent. The Nebraska corn crop was rated 71 percent good to excellent. Wisconsin stalk and ear counts are at the highest level on record. Ear length is above both last year and the average. Forty-two percent of the crop was dented on August 29, compared with 45 percent in 1998 and the average of 25 percent. Condition of the Wisconsin corn crop was rated 86 percent good to excellent. Minnesota and Ohio stalk and ear counts from Objective Yield data indicate levels below last year but above average. Ear length in Minnesota is below 1998 but above the 5-year average. In Ohio, ear length is below both 1998 and the average for 1994-98. Corn dented in Minnesota was 56 percent by August 29, compared to 71 percent for 1998 and the average of 35 percent. Ohio corn was 62 percent dented, compared to 38 percent for last year and the average of 28 percent. Minnesota corn was rated 63 percent good to excellent while the Ohio crop was rated 68 percent fair to good. Sorghum: Production is forecast at 580 million bushels, down 1 percent from the August forecast but 12 percent above the 1998 production. Area harvested and to be harvested is unchanged from August, at 8.50 million acres, 10 percent higher than the previous year. The forecasted yield, at 68.2 bushels per acre, is down 1 bushel from last month but 0.9 bushels higher than last year's yield. Compared to August, forecasted yields are higher for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Oklahoma; unchanged for Colorado, Kansas, and New Mexico; and lower in the remaining States. Record high yields are expected in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas. As of August 29, 28 percent of the crop was mature in the 12 major States, equal to the average. The crop matured ahead of normal in Louisiana and Mississippi during August. Barley: Production for 1999 is forecast at 283 million bushels, less than 1 percent higher than the August forecast but 20 percent below the 1998 production. Area harvested and to be harvested is unchanged from August, at 4.83 million acres, down 18 percent from the previous year. Yields are expected to average 58.5 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month but 1.6 bushels below last year's yield. Forecasted yields were unchanged from August in 5 of the 11 September forecast States. Compared to the August forecast, Idaho, Washington, and Wyoming are expecting higher yields, while North Dakota, Oregon, and Wisconsin are forecasting lower yields. Wet weather slowed harvest in most major States during August. As of August 29, 55 percent of the barley was harvested, behind the 71 percent 5-year average. If achieved, the forecasted yield in Wyoming would equal the record high. Durum Wheat: Grain area is unchanged from the last forecast at 3.90 million acres. Harvested yields were lower than expected in South Dakota because of dry conditions. The North Dakota Durum crop trailed a week behind the 5-year average throughout August; harvest was only 19 percent complete on August 29. Average harvest progress in North Dakota is 33 percent. North Dakota's Durum Objective Yield survey head count and weight forecasts are improved from a month ago, but still lower than average. Other Spring Wheat: Harvested area for 1999 is 15.0 million acres, unchanged from last month and down 1 percent from last year. As of August 29, harvest trailed average by four points in the major producing states; only the South Dakota harvest was ahead of average and was nearing completion. Idaho harvested yields are a bit higher than were expected last month. Washington's average yield is unchanged and thunderstorms are slowing the harvest. Objective Yield survey data shows plant populations at above average levels in Minnesota, below in Montana, and about average in North Dakota. Head weight forecasts are up from August in Minnesota and North Dakota, but are still below average; Montana's weight forecast dipped but remains better than average. Rice: Production is forecast at a record high 212 million cwt, down 1 percent from August 1 but 13 percent above 1998. Area for harvest is expected to total 3.56 million acres, down slightly from August 1 but 7 percent above a year ago. Yields are expected to average 5,967 pounds per acre, down 26 pounds from August but up 298 pounds from 1998. Yield prospects in California, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas remained unchanged while Arkansas and Louisiana decreased from a month ago. The Arkansas harvest was slightly ahead of schedule, while Texas was 22 percent ahead of the 5-year average. California harvest has not begun. The cooler temperatures in July are expected to delay harvest by about two weeks. As of August 29, Arkansas crop development was slightly ahead of normal and was rated 71 percent good to excellent. The Louisiana harvest was 79 percent complete and yields are less than earlier expectations. The crop condition in Mississippi and Texas rated mostly good. Soybeans: Acres expected for harvest, at 73.3 million acres, are unchanged from August but are 3 percent above the 1998 record harvested acreage. As of August 29, the soybeans crop was rated mostly in fair to good condition. At month's end, crop conditions had deteriorated in much of the Delta, Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic region as soil moisture levels remained depleted and high temperatures persisted. Conditions in the western Corn Belt States and northern tier States were more favorable during August as milder temperatures and occasional rains eased the stress caused by the heat wave that hit in late July. In the drier eastern Corn Belt and Mid-Atlantic, the crop began to show some signs of improvement as much needed precipitation was finally received by the second week of August and continued through the end of the month. In the seventeen non-Objective Yield states that make yield forecasts in September, ten states reduced yields from August. The largest yield reductions in September were seen in Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Louisiana, Kansas, and South Dakota. Yields were also lowered in Georgia, Delaware, Mississippi, and South Carolina. Yield increases were made in two states, North Dakota and Texas, while yields in Maryland, Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin were unchanged from August. If realized, pod counts from the September Objective Yield survey will be the highest on record in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska. In Missouri, pod counts for September were the lowest since 1988. In Ohio, pod counts were the second highest on record following the 1998 season. Overall, crop maturity was running at an accelerated pace. As of August 29, 94 percent of the soybeans crop had already set pods, 1 percentage point ahead of 1998 and 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. The percent of soybeans dropping leaves, at 6 percent, was 1 percentage point ahead of the previous year and 3 percentage points ahead of the average. Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.85 billion pounds, up slightly from the August 1 forecast but down 3 percent from last year's crop. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.45 million acres, down slightly from August and down 1 percent from 1998. North Carolina was the only state to adjust their harvested acreage from the August report, decreasing their expectations by 1,000 acres. Yields are expected to average 2,660 pounds, up 3 pounds from last month but down 42 pounds from last year. Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total 2.10 billion pounds, down slightly from last month and down 5 percent from last year's level. Yield in the Southeast region are expected to average 2,509 pounds per acre, down 11 pounds from August 1 and 131 pounds below 1998. Yield prospects in Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina were unchanged from last month while Florida decreased 100 pounds. Early harvest was underway in Florida and Georgia. As of August 29, the crop condition in the 4-State area was mostly fair to good. The Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 588 million pounds, up 2 percent from last month, but down 5 percent from 1998. Yield is forecast at 2,938 pounds, 63 pounds above last month but down 162 pounds from last year. On August 29, the Virginia-North Carolina crop was rated in mostly good condition. Southwest crop production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 1.17 billion pounds, unchanged from last month but up 2 percent from 1998. Yields are expected to average 2,829 pounds, 191 pounds above 1998. On August 29, harvest had begun in Texas on the earliest fields. The tri-state area crop condition was rated mostly fair to good. Cotton: Upland harvested acreage is 25 percent above last year, with Louisiana increasing 30,000 acres from August 1. Condition of the cotton crop has deteriorated since last month in most of the cotton-producing States. Dry soils and above normal temperatures have stressed dryland cotton. American-Pima harvested acreage is also unchanged from August, at 316,200, but up 35 percent from 1998. Texas cotton has experienced above normal temperatures, promoting rapid development. For the week ending August 29, 29 percent of the cotton acreage was showing open bolls. This compares to 26 percent for the 5-year average. However, these high temperatures have resulted in some boll drop, especially in dryland areas. During the month of August, Texas cotton has shown a slight decline in overall condition. On August 29, 37 percent of the acreage was rated as good to excellent which compares to 45 percent on August 1. Harvest continues in the Coastal Bend and Upper Coast. The Rio Grande Valley had harvested almost all of their cotton prior to Hurricane Bret. The Objective Yield survey data indicates Texas' fruit counts rank ninth in the last ten years. Oklahoma's production is unchanged from last month. The overall condition of their cotton crop has improved, but some dryland cotton is exhibiting signs of drought stress. The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) experienced a slight decline in the condition of their cotton during the month of August. Dry conditions continue to affect the region and reduce the potential yield. Arkansas rated 59 percent of their acreage as good to excellent, 11 percent lower than on August 1. Mississippi showed very similar results, rating 58 percent of the cotton as good to excellent, also 11 percent below last month's rating. Missouri and Louisiana rated 38 and 32 percent, respectively, in the good to excellent categories. For Missouri, this was 1 percent lower than last month, but Louisiana's rating was down 38 percent. Tennessee rated only 20 percent of their cotton acreage as good to excellent, a 28 percent decrease from August 1. While the condition deteriorated, warm weather has resulted in accelerated maturity of the crop and the shedding of some small bolls. Boll opening was ahead of average in all of the Delta States. On August 29, Arkansas was 42 percent open, 20 points ahead of the 5-year average. Louisiana had bolls open on 63 percent of the acreage, compared to 54 percent on average. Mississippi had 80 percent of their acreage showing open bolls, 31 percent ahead of average. Cotton Objective Yield data show Arkansas' count of large boll count as the ninth lowest in the last ten years. Mississippi's large boll count ranks seventh for the same time period. Louisiana's total fruit count ranks ninth since 1990. Unusually cool weather persisted in California and Arizona early in August, resulting in slow development of the cotton crop. By mid-to-late August, beneficial warmth promoted development, but fields with open bolls continued to lag behind the 5-year average. California reported only 5 percent of their cotton acreage having open bolls on August 29, 23 percent behind normal. Arizona showed a similar results, with only 39 percent of the acreage having open bolls. This compares to 66 percent on average. Despite the delay, there is not widespread concern about the crop growing to maturity. At the end of August, California's cotton continues to be rated 90 percent good to excellent. Arizona rated 45 percent in these categories and an additional 45 percent as fair. Data from the Objective Yield plots indicate the number of small bolls in California ranks second in the past ten years, while their large boll counts rank sixth during this time period. In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina), the cotton crop condition declined due to hot and dry weather throughout most of the month. In late August, rains from Hurricane Dennis improved soil moisture conditions in isolated areas, but some fields were too mature to benefit from the moisture. Northern Alabama and the Carolinas did receive scattered showers during the middle of the month, but additional rain was still needed. All four of the States showed a decline in cotton condition during the month of August. South Carolina and Georgia each rated only 24 percent of their crop in the good to excellent categories. There were declines of 38 and 35 points, respectively, from August 1. Georgia rated 33 percent good to excellent, a 19 percent decrease from August 1. North Carolina showed the least decline, rating 57 percent of their cotton good to excellent, 14 points below last month. As was the case in the Delta States, the warm, sunny weather has promoted rapid advancement of this year's crop. After a slow start, cotton development has now caught up or exceeded the 5-year average. As of August 29, Alabama reported 32 percent of the cotton acreage having open bolls, 10 percent above the 5-year average. North Carolina had 25 percent of its acreage with open bolls, 7 percent ahead of average. Georgia is 5 percent ahead of normal with 36 percent of the acreage having open bolls and South Carolina is on average with 17 percent of the cotton acres with open bolls. A small volume of cotton was reportedly harvested in Georgia. Harvesting is not expected to become widespread until later in September. American-Pima production is forecast at 688,500 bales, up 56 percent from last year's output, and up 20,900 bales from August. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,045 pounds per harvested acre, up 141 pounds from last year. California's production is up 20,000 bales from the August forecast, while Arizona's production is increased 900 bales. Although cool temperatures have slowed development, the crop continues to be have good potential in both of these States. New Mexico and Texas production remained unchanged. Ginnings totaled 561,000 running bales prior to September 1, compared with 523,000 running bales ginned prior to the same date last year and 358,700 running bales in 1998. Summer Potatoes: The September forecast of 1999 summer potato production is 18.6 million cwt, 2 percent below a year ago and 2 percent below the July 1 forecast. Harvest area is estimated at 64,400 acres, down 5 percent from last year and slightly below two years ago. The average yield is forecast at 289 cwt per acre, 11 cwt above last year and 9 cwt above two years ago. Yields are above last year in Alabama, California, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, and New Mexico. Alabama and Missouri are record high, and Delaware tied a record high. Irrigation helped Delaware growers. Most areas got off to a late start in the spring and were then hit by hot, dry weather during the last of the growing season. Yields are down in Virginia, New Jersey, and Texas. Harvest is virtually finished, although late in many areas. Late spring rains slowed early development in Colorado and Nebraska, but most fields caught up to normal as warmer weather prevailed. Harvest was also late in California and Delaware. Fall Potatoes, 1998 Final: Production of 1998 fall potatoes is finalized at 433 million cwt, up 2 percent from a year earlier but 5 percent below the record high production of 1996. The 1998 crop is the second highest production on record. Farmers harvested 1.21 million acres of fall potatoes in 1998, up 2 percent from 1997 but 3 percent short of 1996. The average yield was 356 cwt per acre, down 1 cwt from 1997 and 8 cwt below 1996. Compared with annual estimates made last January, larger crops were registered in Nevada and Massachusetts. Idaho and Michigan crops were smaller. All Potatoes, 1998: Final production of potatoes from all four seasons in 1998 totaled 476 million cwt, up 2 percent from a year earlier, but 5 percent below 1996. Area harvested is estimated at 1.39 million acres, up 3 percent from 1997 but 3 percent below 1996. Yield, averaging 343 cwt per acre, dropped 2 cwt from a year ago and was 7 cwt lower than two years ago. In 1998, winter production dropped 13 percent, spring slipped 5 percent, summer gained 4 percent, and fall potatoes increased 2 percent from the previous year. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 1999 is forecast at 1.31 billion pounds, down 11 percent from 1998 and down 27 percent from 1997. Harvested acres are expected to total 661,110, also down 8 percent from 1998. Yields for 1999 are expected to average 1,984 pounds per acre, 77 pounds below a year ago. Tobacco growers in North Carolina watched yield prospects slip from a month ago levels due to dry conditions. Growers in Kentucky, the leading burley state, also watched yields deteriorate from last month due to dry conditions. Flue-cured production is expected to total 700 million pounds, down 14 percent from 1998. Growers plan to harvest 316,000 acres in 1999, 14 percent below last year. Yield is expected to average 2,217 pounds per acre, down 41 pounds from last month but up 13 pounds from a year ago. Burley production is expected to total 536 million pounds, 8 percent below a year ago. Yield is expected to average 1,754 pounds per acre, a decline of 134 pounds from the previous forecast and down 142 pounds from 1998. Burley tobacco growers plan to harvest 305,700 acres, slightly below a year ago. Kentucky's acreage, at 215,000, is expected to be the same as last year but yield declined 150 pounds from last month. Tennessee's dark fired tobacco yields dropped as much as 200 pounds from last month while burley declined 150 pounds from the previous forecast. Yields are highly variable due to drought severity and planting date. Early tobacco has fared well, whereas late tobacco looks poor. Black shank has been a problem throughout the State. Florida Citrus: Florida's citrus belt received adequate to surplus precipitation during the month of August. Several growers on the lower east coast and the west coast had frequent, heavy downpours with occasional flooding and erosion. A few groves on the high sand hills, however, received only variable to light rainfall and required periodic irrigation. There is an abundance of new growth on trees of all ages in all areas. New crop fruit is making very good progress. Two packing houses have packed new crop, early bloom Navels. There are several fresh fruit houses also testing grapefruit for early harvest. Caretakers have been very active cutting cover crops and applying herbicides. Growers are also applying summer sprays and fertilizers between rain showers. Dead trees and abandoned groves are being pushed and burned. New trees have been reset in the larger groves. California Citrus: During the month of August, new crop navel oranges were maturing well. Sizes were slightly below the average of the last 12 non-freeze years. Growers in southern California continued to harvest Valencia oranges and lemons. Sugarbeets: Production is forecast at record high 33.6 million tons, 3 percent above the previous record in 1998. Growers in the 12 sugarbeet-producing States expect to harvest 1,525,500 acres, 5 percent more than last year and the highest since 1,540,500 acres were harvested in 1969. The yield is forecast at 22.0 tons per acre, 0.5 ton below 1998. Seasonal temperatures and adequate moisture supplies promoted healthy development in most of the Great Plains. A few fields in Colorado were damaged by hail and excessive moisture. Some fields in North Dakota and Minnesota were also hampered by excessive soil moisture. The California beet crop is forecast at a record high, as cooler-than-normal summer weather boosted yield prospects. Increasing moisture shortages stressed some fields in Michigan. Sugarcane: Production is forecast at a record high 37.1 million tons, 7 percent above the previous record of 34.7 million tons set last year. U.S. sugarcane growers intend to harvest a record high 987,500 acres for sugar and seed during the 1999 crop year, 4 percent more than last year's final harvested acres. The record high acreage is due to a 30,000 acre expansion in Louisiana and a 9,000 acre increase in Florida. The expansion in Louisiana is due to increased use of a new high-yielding variety that can be harvested mechanically even if it is severely lodged. Yield is forecast at 37.5 tons per acre, 0.9 ton above 1998. A record high yield is forecast for Louisiana due to ideal growing conditions, a high yielding sugarcane hybrid, and increased utilization of a more efficient harvester. Warm weather and frequent rains promoted rapid growth in Florida. Papayas: Hawaii's fresh papaya output is estimated at 3.50 million pounds for August, 8 percent higher than July and 26 percent higher than a year ago. Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,515 acres in August, 1 percent higher than July but 4 percent lower than August 1998. August weather conditions were variable with a mix of sunshine and showers. Soil moisture levels were low in some orchards early in the month, but were replenished by the end of August. Harvesting of the transgenic Rainbow variety, which is resistant to the papaya ringspot virus, was increasing as more fields mature. California Fruits and Nuts: Fresh use grape harvesting was active in the San Joaquin Valley during August. Major varieties that were picked included Thompson Seedless, Red Globe, and Flame Seedless. By the end of August, raisin grapes were being dried and wine grape harvesting was underway. Stone fruit harvesting made good progress during the month and began to wind down by September 1. The Bartlett pear harvest was wrapping up by late August and good quality was reported. Asian and other pear harvests were also active. Early variety apple picking gained momentum. Almond growers began harvest of early varieties by late August. Walnut trees were treated for codling moths. Olives were maturing well. Central Valley growers were planting strawberries. Hazelnuts: Hazelnut production in Oregon and Washington is forecast at 38,000 tons for 1999. This would be almost two and one-half times larger than last year's crop but 19 percent less than the 1997 record production. Oregon is expected to account for 37,700 tons and Washington the remaining 300 tons. Pollination was generally good during January and February despite wetter than normal conditions. Crop progress is now about 10 to 14 days behind normal. Except for delayed maturity, the cool, wet spring which extended into early summer has not affected the crop. Eastern Filbert Blight continues to limit potential production in infested orchards. The results of the hazelnut objective yield survey showed the number of nuts picked per tree was up 178 percent from last year but down 23 percent from 1997. The percentage of good nuts was off three percentage points from 1998 and about two percentage points from 1997. The average dry weight of the good nuts was one-third gram lower than last year but one-tenth gram higher than in 1997. The average size was much smaller than in 1998 but nearly the same as 1997. Brown stained nuts amounted to just 0.9 percent of the sample, the lowest percentage since 1991. Walnuts: The 1999 California walnut production is forecast at a record 280,000 tons, up 23 percent from the 1998 production of 227,000 tons. The September forecast is based upon the Walnut Objective Measurement Survey conducted August 1 through August 22, 1999. Survey data indicated an average nut set of 1,709, up 21 percent from last year's average of 1,407. The Hartley nut set was up 54 percent; Serr, down 39 percent; Franquette, up 86 percent; and Chandler, up 18 percent from 1998. Percent of sound kernels in-shell was a record high 97.9 percent Statewide. In-shell weight per nut was 23.0 grams, while the average in-shell suture measurement was 32.2 millimeters. The average length in-shell was 39.4 millimeters. Due to a cool spring, the crop is about two weeks behind normal. The early and mid-season varieties are expected to be about average, while late variety production is expected to be larger than last year. Quality is expected to be excellent, with very little damage. Pistachios: California pistachio production is forecast at 110 million pounds, 41 percent below last year's record production. This forecast is based upon an objective measurement survey completed August 27, 1999. The estimated average number of clusters per tree was 591. The estimated total number of filled nuts per tree was 4,630 as compared with 9,542 in 1998. The average number of nuts per cluster, including both filled and blank, was 11.1 nuts per cluster. The percent of nuts filled was 70.4 percent. The average in-hull weight per nut including blanks was 2.82 grams, compared to 2.86 grams last year. The in-hull cross suture measurement was 15.29 millimeters, compared to 15.05 millimeters in 1998. Average kernel weight in 1999 was 0.928 grams. The average suture was 10.16 millimeters, average cross suture 9.78 millimeters, and kernel length was 16.72 millimeters. Due to the later than usual spring, the crop is approximately two to three weeks behind normal. Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecast Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between August 25 and September 4 to gather information on expected yield as of September 1. The objective yield surveys for wheat, corn, soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were re-visted to make current counts. The counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of heads, ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The 5-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 16,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields as the season progresses. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published September 1 forecasts. Revision Policy: The September 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the September 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. This is done by expressing the deviation between the September 1 production forecast and the final estimate as a percentage of the final estimate, and averaging the squared percentage deviations for the 1979-1998 20-year period; the square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the September 1 corn for grain production forecast is 5.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast of 9.38 billion bushels will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.5 percent or approximately 516 million bushels. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 9.5 percent or approximately 891 million bushels. Also shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the September 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the September 1 forecast and the final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 310 million bushels, ranging from 10 million bushels to 891 million bushels. The September 1 has been below the final estimate 12 times and above 8 times. This does not imply that the September 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Root Mean : 20-Year Record of : : Square Error : Differences Between Forecast : :------------------: and Final Estimate : : : :------------------------------------ Crop :Unit : : 90 : Quantity : Years : :Percent: Percent :------------------------------------ : : :Confidence: : : :Below:Above : : : Interval :Average:Smallest:Largest:Final:Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ Million ------ Number : : Corn For Grain :Bu : 5.5 9.5 310 10 891 12 8 Sorghum for Grain :Bu : 7.3 12.6 32 1 115 12 8 Barley :Bu : 3.8 6.8 12 0 38 7 13 All Wheat :Bu : 1.5 2.5 28 2 97 8 12 Durum :Bu : 5.8 9.9 4 0 12 9 11 Other Spring :Bu : 3.7 6.4 14 1 62 10 10 Rice :Cwt : 4.2 7.2 5 0 16 12 8 Soybeans for Beans:Bu : 5.0 8.6 93 19 199 10 10 Cotton 1/ :Bales: 6.0 10.4 692 5 2,366 11 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Quantity is in thousands of bales. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Brad Parks, Head (202) 720-3843 Rhonda Brandt - Corn (202) 720-9526 Herman Ellison - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Lance Honig - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234 Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Jerry Ramirez - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Vaughn Siegenthaler - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Dean Groskurth, Head(202) 720-3843 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4488 Howard Hill - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270 Harry Nishimoto - Hops (360) 902-1940 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 8, 1999. 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