Cr Pr 2-2 (12-99)a Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 10, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Cotton Up 2 percent All cotton production is forecast at 16.9 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from last month, and up 21 percent from 1998. Yield is expected to average 604 pounds per harvested acre, down 21 pounds from last year. Texas production was increased 300,000 bales from November's forecast, while California was increased 50,000 bales. On November 28, U.S. harvest was 88 percent complete, compared to the 5-year average of 87 percent. All oranges: The forecast of the 1999-00 U.S. all orange crop is 12.2 million tons, up 1 percent from October and up 24 percent from last season. Florida's all orange forecast is 214 million boxes (9.63 million tons), 1 percent more than the October 1 forecast and 15 percent higher than the 186 million boxes (8.36 million tons) utilized last season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 124 million boxes (5.58 million tons), unchanged from October and 11 percent higher than last season. Florida's Valencia forecast of 90.0 million boxes (4.05 million tons) is 3 percent above the October 1 forecast and 22 percent higher than last season's final utilization. Texas orange production is forecast at 1.60 million boxes (68,000 tons), unchanged from October and up 12 percent from last season. California and Arizona orange production forecasts were carried forward from the October forecast. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 1999-00 season is forecast at 1.60 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from October. The final all orange yield for 1998-99 as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association was a record high 1.63 gallons per box. Projected yields for 1999-00 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. This report was approved on December 10, 1999. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Richard E. Rominger Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Frederic A. Vogel Contents Page Beans, Dry Edible. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Coffee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Pecans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . . . . . . . . . 24 Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Tobacco, Burley. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 1998 and Forecasted December 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 1999 : : State : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 :-------------------: 1998 : 1999 : : : : Nov 1 : Dec 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 475.0 560.0 559 540 540 553.0 630.0 AZ : 248.0 239.0 1,177 1,205 1,245 608.0 620.0 AR : 900.0 960.0 645 710 715 1,209.0 1,430.0 CA : 620.0 585.0 887 1,231 1,272 1,146.0 1,550.0 FL 3/ : 80.0 88.0 489 524 524 81.5 96.0 GA : 1,280.0 1,450.0 578 530 513 1,542.0 1,550.0 KS 3/ : 16.5 28.0 404 411 411 13.9 24.0 LA : 525.0 595.0 586 702 726 641.0 900.0 MS : 940.0 1,180.0 737 716 708 1,444.0 1,740.0 MO : 357.0 375.0 471 582 595 350.0 465.0 NM 3/ : 60.3 67.0 640 716 716 80.4 100.0 NC : 705.0 810.0 699 462 462 1,026.0 780.0 OK : 120.0 170.0 560 480 424 140.0 150.0 SC : 286.0 315.0 587 450 434 350.0 285.0 TN : 445.0 565.0 589 476 501 546.0 590.0 TX : 3,300.0 5,000.0 524 461 490 3,600.0 5,100.0 VA 3/ : 91.0 109.0 765 819 819 145.1 186.0 : US :10,448.8 13,096.0 619 581 594 13,475.9 16,196.0 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 15.5 11.2 830 836 750 26.8 17.5 CA : 180.0 259.0 941 1,112 1,112 352.8 600.0 NM : 7.3 7.0 658 686 583 10.0 8.5 TX : 32.0 32.0 791 825 795 52.7 53.0 : US : 234.8 309.2 904 1,063 1,054 442.3 679.0 : All : AL : 475.0 560.0 559 540 540 553.0 630.0 AZ : 263.5 250.2 1,156 1,188 1,223 634.8 637.5 AR : 900.0 960.0 645 710 715 1,209.0 1,430.0 CA : 800.0 844.0 899 1,194 1,223 1,498.8 2,150.0 FL 3/ : 80.0 88.0 489 524 524 81.5 96.0 GA : 1,280.0 1,450.0 578 530 513 1,542.0 1,550.0 KS 3/ : 16.5 28.0 404 411 411 13.9 24.0 LA : 525.0 595.0 586 702 726 641.0 900.0 MS : 940.0 1,180.0 737 716 708 1,444.0 1,740.0 MO : 357.0 375.0 471 582 595 350.0 465.0 NM : 67.6 74.0 642 714 704 90.4 108.5 NC : 705.0 810.0 699 462 462 1,026.0 780.0 OK : 120.0 170.0 560 480 424 140.0 150.0 SC : 286.0 315.0 587 450 434 350.0 285.0 TN : 445.0 565.0 589 476 501 546.0 590.0 TX : 3,332.0 5,032.0 526 463 492 3,652.7 5,153.0 VA 3/ : 91.0 109.0 765 819 819 145.1 186.0 : US :10,683.6 13,405.2 625 592 604 13,918.2 16,875.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted December 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 6,934.6 5,365.4 6,395.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Burley Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State, and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted December 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ State :---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : Type 31 : IN : 8,500 6,500 2,000 1,800 18,690 17,000 11,700 KY : 215,000 210,000 1,935 1,800 470,400 416,025 378,000 MO 1/ : 2,700 2,300 2,130 1,950 7,035 5,751 4,485 NC : 8,100 8,400 1,450 1,550 13,314 11,745 13,020 OH : 9,800 9,800 1,830 1,720 22,230 17,934 16,856 TN : 51,000 51,000 1,795 1,850 93,330 91,545 94,350 VA : 10,400 11,000 1,940 2,250 20,574 20,176 24,750 WV 1/ : 1,600 1,700 1,350 1,300 3,060 2,160 2,210 : US : 307,100 300,700 1,896 1,814 648,633 582,336 545,371 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Oct : 3,785 3,225 2,240 1,625 3,165 3,850 Nov : 3,785 3,205 2,215 1,585 3,250 3,480 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1997-98, 1998-99 and Forecasted December 1, 1999 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :---------------------------------------------------------- : 1997-98 : 1998-99 : 1999-00 : 1997-98 : 1998-99 :1999-00 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 350 550 400 13 21 15 CA 4/ : 44,000 21,000 40,000 1,650 787 1,500 FL : 140,000 112,000 124,000 6,300 5,040 5,580 TX : 1,350 1,250 1,300 57 53 55 US : 185,700 134,800 165,700 8,020 5,901 7,150 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 650 600 500 25 22 19 CA 4/ : 25,000 17,000 27,000 938 638 1,013 FL : 104,000 73,700 90,000 4,680 3,317 4,050 TX : 175 180 300 7 8 13 US : 129,825 91,480 117,800 5,650 3,985 5,095 All : AZ 4/ : 1,000 1,150 900 38 43 34 CA 4/ : 69,000 38,000 67,000 2,588 1,425 2,513 FL : 244,000 185,700 214,000 10,980 8,357 9,630 TX : 1,525 1,430 1,600 64 61 68 US : 315,525 226,280 283,500 13,670 9,886 12,245 Temples : FL : 2,250 1,800 2,100 101 81 95 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 18,300 17,800 18,500 777 757 786 Colored Seedless 6/: FL : 30,600 28,700 27,000 1,301 1,220 1,148 Other : FL : 650 550 500 28 23 21 All : AZ 4/ : 800 750 650 27 25 22 CA 4/ : 8,000 7,500 8,000 268 251 268 FL 5/ 6/ : 49,550 47,050 46,000 2,106 2,000 1,955 TX : 4,800 6,100 5,500 192 244 220 US : 63,150 61,400 60,150 2,593 2,520 2,465 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 7/ : 600 950 700 23 36 26 CA 4/ 7/ : 2,400 1,500 2,300 90 56 86 FL : 5,200 4,950 6,400 247 235 304 US : 8,200 7,400 9,400 360 327 416 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 2,600 3,450 3,900 99 131 148 CA : 21,000 16,200 20,500 798 616 779 US : 23,600 19,650 24,400 897 747 927 Tangelos : FL : 2,850 2,550 2,600 128 115 117 K-Early Citrus : FL : 40 80 90 2 4 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5/ Excludes White Seedless economic abandonment of 5,000,000 boxes in 1997-98. 6/ Excludes Colored Seedless economic abandonment of 1,000,000 boxes in 1997-98. 7/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1997-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 135.0 110.0 135.0 132.0 105.0 132.0 CO : 135.0 170.0 165.0 120.0 155.0 155.0 ID : 100.0 105.0 105.0 98.0 103.0 103.0 KS : 22.0 20.0 22.0 20.0 19.0 20.9 MI : 315.0 300.0 350.0 305.0 295.0 350.0 MN : 175.0 190.0 205.0 165.0 175.0 165.0 MT : 12.2 16.6 26.5 11.7 16.0 25.7 NE : 190.0 195.0 210.0 180.0 188.0 187.0 NM : 12.0 10.5 1.0 12.0 9.5 1.0 NY : 44.0 31.0 31.0 43.5 30.0 30.2 ND : 620.0 750.0 630.0 565.0 710.0 570.0 OR : 9.0 8.7 11.5 8.9 8.6 10.8 TX : 15.0 15.0 20.0 14.0 13.5 18.0 UT : 5.8 6.0 6.7 5.2 5.9 6.6 WA : 38.0 40.0 36.0 38.0 40.0 36.0 WI : 9.8 7.3 8.3 9.5 7.2 8.0 WY : 32.0 39.0 40.0 31.0 37.0 38.0 : US : 1,869.8 2,014.1 2,003.0 1,758.8 1,917.7 1,857.2 :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Acre : Production :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ---------- 1,000 Cwt --------- : CA : 2,270 1,480 1,970 3,000 1,554 2,600 CO : 1,900 1,850 1,950 2,280 2,868 3,023 ID : 2,200 2,050 2,050 2,156 2,112 2,112 KS : 1,900 2,000 1,850 380 380 387 MI : 1,620 1,500 2,100 4,941 4,425 7,350 MN : 1,550 1,450 1,550 2,558 2,538 2,558 MT : 2,200 2,190 1,770 257 350 454 NE : 2,060 1,950 2,000 3,708 3,666 3,740 NM : 1,700 1,800 1,800 204 171 18 NY : 1,560 1,420 1,370 679 426 414 ND : 1,260 1,380 1,450 7,119 9,798 8,265 OR : 2,040 1,770 1,610 182 152 174 TX : 1,020 1,000 1,490 143 135 268 UT : 800 510 800 42 30 53 WA : 2,240 2,230 2,080 850 890 750 WI : 1,800 1,600 1,550 171 115 124 WY : 2,260 2,180 2,090 700 808 793 : US : 1,670 1,586 1,781 29,370 30,418 33,083 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1997-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Large Lima : CA : 30.0 26.0 25.0 29.0 25.0 24.0 : Baby Lima : CA : 37.0 13.0 27.0 36.0 12.0 26.0 : Navy : CO : 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 ID : 3.8 1.5 5.4 3.7 1.5 5.3 MI : 150.0 75.0 150.0 145.0 74.0 150.0 MN : 58.0 51.0 80.0 56.0 46.0 64.0 NE : 6.0 5.0 7.0 5.9 4.8 6.2 NM : 5.0 2.0 5.0 2.0 ND : 160.0 120.0 195.0 147.0 114.0 175.0 OR : 0.9 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.4 1.2 WY : 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 Total : 385.9 255.5 440.6 365.6 243.3 403.5 : Great Northern : CO : 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 ID : 5.5 7.5 6.6 5.4 7.4 6.5 KS : 1.4 1.3 MN : 3.0 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.5 NE : 96.0 97.0 115.0 94.0 93.2 104.0 WA : 1.1 1.1 WY : 4.0 6.0 8.0 3.9 5.5 7.5 Total : 110.2 113.2 133.5 107.4 108.5 121.6 : Small White : ID : 3.3 1.5 2.5 3.2 1.4 2.5 OR : 1.3 0.3 0.6 1.3 0.3 0.6 WA : 3.5 1.0 1.8 3.5 1.0 1.8 Total : 8.1 2.8 4.9 8.0 2.7 4.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1997-99 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre : Production and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : Large Lima : CA : 2,480 1,250 1,710 718 312 410 : Baby Lima : CA : 2,510 1,700 2,600 902 204 675 : Navy : CO : 1,500 1,500 3 9 ID : 2,460 2,330 2,150 91 35 114 MI : 1,580 1,600 2,300 2,290 1,180 3,450 MN : 1,650 1,620 1,560 926 745 998 NE : 1,980 2,130 1,950 117 102 121 NM : 1,840 2,000 92 40 ND : 1,320 1,550 1,460 1,943 1,767 2,555 OR : 2,330 2,250 1,920 21 9 23 WY : 2,160 2,060 41 37 Total : 1,511 1,598 1,809 5,524 3,887 7,298 : Great Northern : CO : 1,670 1,500 5 3 ID : 2,220 2,140 2,110 120 158 137 KS : 1,690 22 MN : 1,600 1,360 1,600 40 30 40 NE : 2,100 1,990 2,030 1,974 1,855 2,111 WA : 2,450 27 WY : 2,310 2,310 2,240 90 127 168 Total : 2,096 2,003 2,042 2,251 2,173 2,483 : Small White : ID : 2,410 2,210 2,080 77 31 52 OR : 2,150 2,330 2,000 28 7 12 WA : 2,230 2,200 2,110 78 22 38 Total : 2,288 2,222 2,082 183 60 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1997-99 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Pinto : CO : 119.0 152.0 135.0 105.5 138.0 128.5 ID : 39.0 44.2 31.2 38.2 43.5 30.6 KS : 18.0 18.5 16.5 16.4 17.7 15.8 MI : 10.0 21.0 9.0 10.0 20.0 9.0 MN : 43.0 55.0 38.0 41.0 52.0 24.0 MT : 12.2 12.2 13.9 11.7 12.0 13.5 NE : 67.0 76.0 60.0 59.7 73.7 54.0 NM : 7.0 5.5 1.0 7.0 4.5 1.0 ND : 415.0 540.0 363.0 376.0 510.0 332.0 OR : 1.3 2.2 2.4 1.3 2.2 2.3 TX : 1.5 0.5 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.6 UT : 5.8 6.0 6.7 5.2 5.9 6.6 WA : 10.0 16.0 9.0 10.0 16.0 9.0 WY : 25.0 28.0 28.0 24.3 27.0 27.0 Total : 773.8 977.1 714.3 707.7 923.0 653.9 : Light Red : Kidney : CA : 10.0 9.5 8.0 10.0 8.5 8.0 CO : 12.2 10.0 15.0 11.2 9.4 12.5 ID : 1.1 1.6 0.8 1.1 1.6 0.8 MI : 14.0 14.0 17.0 14.0 13.0 17.0 MN : 10.0 11.0 11.0 9.5 10.5 10.5 NE : 17.0 13.0 19.0 16.6 12.6 14.8 NY : 25.0 16.0 17.7 24.5 15.5 17.5 WA : 0.9 2.0 0.9 2.0 Total : 89.3 76.0 90.5 86.9 72.0 83.1 : Dark Red : Kidney : CA : 5.0 5.5 3.5 5.0 5.5 3.5 ID : 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.0 MI : 12.0 9.0 9.0 11.5 9.0 9.0 MN : 36.0 34.0 38.0 34.0 32.0 36.0 NY : 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 ND : 1.8 5.5 5.0 1.6 5.2 4.7 WI : 9.8 7.3 8.3 9.5 7.2 8.0 Total : 67.1 64.2 66.8 64.1 61.8 64.2 : Pink : CA : 4.0 5.5 2.0 4.0 5.5 2.0 ID : 14.4 17.6 19.2 14.2 17.2 18.7 MN : 8.0 13.0 14.0 7.5 12.2 10.2 ND : 8.0 13.0 11.0 7.0 12.6 10.0 WA : 3.7 6.0 4.5 3.7 6.0 4.5 Total : 38.1 55.1 50.7 36.4 53.5 45.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1997-99 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre : Production and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- -------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : Pinto : CO : 1,890 1,900 1,950 1,991 2,617 2,512 ID : 2,200 2,100 2,170 842 914 664 KS : 1,920 2,000 1,850 315 354 292 MI : 1,400 1,470 1,890 140 293 170 MN : 1,350 1,400 1,430 555 726 343 MT : 2,200 2,200 2,240 257 264 302 NE : 1,990 1,880 2,030 1,188 1,386 1,096 NM : 1,600 2,040 1,800 112 92 18 ND : 1,240 1,340 1,460 4,644 6,832 4,860 OR : 2,310 1,910 1,520 30 42 35 TX : 1,210 600 830 17 3 5 UT : 800 510 800 42 30 53 WA : 2,350 2,380 2,300 235 380 207 WY : 2,270 2,140 2,050 552 578 554 Total : 1,543 1,572 1,699 10,920 14,511 11,111 : Light Red : Kidney : CA : 1,980 1,380 1,500 198 117 120 CO : 2,210 1,810 1,700 248 170 213 ID : 2,450 2,000 2,130 27 32 17 MI : 1,640 1,310 1,800 230 170 306 MN : 1,720 1,570 1,700 163 165 178 NE : 2,200 2,000 1,790 365 252 265 NY : 1,580 1,350 1,290 387 209 225 WA : 2,110 2,150 19 43 Total : 1,862 1,575 1,645 1,618 1,134 1,367 : Dark Red : Kidney : CA : 1,800 850 1,290 90 47 45 ID : 2,200 2,220 1,900 11 20 19 MI : 1,040 1,000 1,700 120 90 153 MN : 1,600 1,410 1,660 543 450 597 NY : 1,650 1,600 1,350 33 32 27 ND : 1,500 1,690 1,510 24 88 71 WI : 1,800 1,600 1,550 171 115 124 Total : 1,548 1,362 1,614 992 842 1,036 : Pink : CA : 1,550 1,070 1,250 62 59 25 ID : 2,290 2,170 2,230 325 373 417 MN : 1,650 1,210 1,400 124 148 143 ND : 1,360 1,500 1,450 95 189 145 WA : 2,510 2,500 2,090 93 150 94 Total : 1,920 1,718 1,815 699 919 824 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1997-99 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Small Red : ID : 20.5 13.1 19.8 20.1 12.8 19.3 MI : 10.0 11.0 15.0 9.0 11.0 15.0 WA : 12.0 8.0 8.0 12.0 8.0 8.0 Total : 42.5 32.1 42.8 41.1 31.8 42.3 : Cranberry : CA : 4.0 2.5 2.5 4.0 2.5 2.5 ID : 1.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 0.9 1.2 MI : 32.0 27.0 31.0 31.0 26.0 31.0 MN : 4.0 3.0 2.6 3.5 2.7 2.4 Total : 41.6 33.4 37.4 40.0 32.1 37.1 : Black : CA : 2.5 1.0 2.5 1.0 CO : 2.0 0.7 0.8 1.6 0.5 0.5 ID : 2.3 5.0 4.8 2.3 4.9 4.8 MI : 80.0 135.0 108.0 78.0 134.0 108.0 MN : 7.0 15.0 10.6 6.0 12.6 9.8 NE : 3.0 3.0 7.0 2.9 2.8 6.4 NY : 13.0 10.5 9.5 13.0 10.0 9.0 ND : 27.0 63.0 41.0 25.5 60.0 37.0 WA : 2.2 3.2 2.2 3.2 WY : 3.0 2.8 Total : 134.3 239.9 185.9 129.3 232.3 179.7 : Blackeye : CA : 30.0 33.0 39.5 29.0 31.0 38.5 TX : 12.0 5.5 13.2 11.2 4.9 11.8 Total : 42.0 38.5 52.7 40.2 35.9 50.3 : Garbanzo : CA : 9.0 5.0 16.5 9.0 5.0 16.5 ID : 7.1 10.6 11.8 6.9 10.3 11.7 OR : 3.3 3.9 2.7 3.2 3.9 2.4 MT : 4.0 12.1 3.8 11.7 ND : 10.0 8.0 WA : 4.9 5.0 5.4 4.9 5.0 5.4 Total : 24.3 28.5 58.5 24.0 28.0 55.7 : Other : CA : 6.0 7.5 10.0 6.0 7.5 10.0 CO : 1.3 6.5 14.2 1.2 6.3 13.5 ID : 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.6 KS : 2.6 1.5 5.5 2.3 1.3 5.1 MI : 7.0 8.0 11.0 6.5 8.0 11.0 MN : 6.0 5.5 8.0 5.0 4.8 5.6 MT : 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 NE : 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 1.6 NM : 3.0 3.0 NY : 4.0 2.5 1.8 4.0 2.5 1.7 ND : 8.2 8.5 5.0 7.9 8.2 3.3 OR : 2.2 1.9 4.6 2.2 1.8 4.3 TX : 1.5 9.0 6.2 1.4 8.1 5.6 WA : 3.9 0.9 1.0 3.9 0.9 1.0 WY : 1.0 2.0 2.0 0.9 1.7 1.7 Total : 45.6 58.8 71.9 43.1 55.8 65.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1997-99 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre : Production and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : Small Red : ID : 2,300 2,150 2,120 462 275 409 MI : 1,670 1,820 2,070 150 200 310 WA : 2,330 2,310 2,260 280 185 181 Total : 2,170 2,075 2,128 892 660 900 : Cranberry : CA : 1,750 1,400 1,000 70 35 25 ID : 1,530 2,000 1,830 23 18 22 MI : 1,680 1,100 1,600 520 285 496 MN : 1,340 1,630 1,420 47 44 34 Total : 1,650 1,190 1,555 660 382 577 : Black : CA : 1,400 1,100 35 11 CO : 500 1,800 2,000 8 9 10 ID : 2,170 2,180 2,130 50 107 102 MI : 1,790 1,570 2,090 1,400 2,100 2,260 MN : 1,420 1,370 1,530 85 172 150 NE : 1,590 2,000 1,800 46 56 115 NY : 1,530 1,470 1,570 199 147 141 ND : 1,310 1,360 1,340 334 816 496 WA : 2,500 2,470 55 79 WY : 2,390 67 Total : 1,641 1,534 1,872 2,122 3,564 3,364 : Blackeye : CA : 2,400 1,840 2,080 695 570 800 TX : 1,000 1,690 1,700 112 83 201 Total : 2,007 1,819 1,990 807 653 1,001 : Garbanzo : CA : 1,670 1,600 1,730 150 80 285 ID : 1,580 1,320 1,250 109 136 146 OR : 1,750 1,510 920 56 59 22 MT : 2,210 1,200 84 140 ND : 1,100 88 WA : 1,570 1,180 1,110 77 59 60 Total : 1,633 1,493 1,330 392 418 741 : Other : CA : 1,920 1,270 2,040 115 95 204 CO : 2,080 950 2,130 25 60 288 ID : 2,110 2,170 2,170 19 13 13 KS : 1,870 2,000 1,860 43 26 95 MI : 1,400 1,340 1,860 91 107 205 MN : 1,500 1,210 1,340 75 58 75 MT : 1,000 2,400 2 12 NE : 2,000 1,670 2,000 18 15 32 NM : 1,300 39 NY : 1,500 1,520 1,250 60 38 21 ND : 1,000 1,290 1,520 79 106 50 OR : 2,140 1,940 1,910 47 35 82 TX : 1,000 600 1,110 14 49 62 WA : 2,230 2,220 2,100 87 20 21 WY : 1,890 2,120 2,000 17 36 34 Total : 1,601 1,253 1,837 690 699 1,194 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1997-98 and Forecasted December 1, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds Improved Varieties 1/ : AL : 7,000 3,500 8,000 AZ : 18,500 13,000 19,000 AR 2/ : 1,200 300 760 CA 2/ : 3,000 1,700 2,300 FL 2/ : 600 200 1,500 GA : 77,000 35,000 80,000 LA : 2,000 3,000 4,000 MS 2/ : 2,600 800 3,000 NM : 45,000 32,000 50,000 NC 2/ : 900 1,500 800 OK : 3,000 200 3,000 SC 2/ : 2,100 800 800 TX : 40,000 20,000 55,000 US : 202,900 112,000 228,160 : Native & Seedling : AL : 6,000 1,500 5,000 AR 2/ : 2,300 250 3,040 FL 2/ : 1,200 1,100 1,400 GA : 23,000 5,000 10,000 KS 2/ : 4,200 50 3,500 LA : 10,000 13,000 14,000 MS 2/ : 1,400 400 1,000 NC 2/ : 600 1,000 500 OK : 32,000 1,800 32,000 SC 2/ : 1,400 300 300 TX : 50,000 10,000 25,000 US : 132,100 34,400 95,740 : All Pecans : AL : 13,000 5,000 13,000 AZ : 18,500 13,000 19,000 AR 2/ : 3,500 550 3,800 CA 2/ : 3,000 1,700 2,300 FL 2/ : 1,800 1,300 2,900 GA : 100,000 40,000 90,000 KS 2/ : 4,200 50 3,500 LA : 12,000 16,000 18,000 MS 2/ : 4,000 1,200 4,000 NM : 45,000 32,000 50,000 NC 2/ : 1,500 2,500 1,300 OK : 35,000 2,000 35,000 SC 2/ : 3,500 1,100 1,100 TX : 90,000 30,000 80,000 : US : 335,000 146,400 323,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 1997-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : For Sugar : FL : 426.0 445.0 40.1 36.5 15,535 17,083 16,243 HI : 30.3 32.7 90.0 87.6 2,925 2,727 2,865 LA : 400.0 425.0 29.7 34.0 10,716 11,880 14,450 TX : 32.0 28.7 32.9 34.0 827 1,053 976 : US : 888.3 931.4 36.9 37.1 30,003 32,743 34,534 : For Seed : FL : 21.0 15.0 40.1 40.0 701 842 600 HI : 2.2 2.3 32.4 32.9 84 71 76 LA : 35.0 40.0 29.7 34.0 846 1,040 1,360 TX : 0.6 2.5 18.3 27.6 75 11 69 : US : 58.8 59.8 33.4 35.2 1,706 1,964 2,105 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 447.0 460.0 40.1 36.6 16,236 17,925 16,843 HI : 32.5 35.0 86.1 84.0 3,009 2,798 2,941 LA : 435.0 465.0 29.7 34.0 11,562 12,920 15,810 TX : 32.6 31.2 32.6 33.5 902 1,064 1,045 : US : 947.1 991.2 36.6 37.0 31,709 34,707 36,639 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Coffee: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Hawaii 1997-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- :1997-98:1998-99:1999-00:1997-98:1998-99:1999-00:1997-98:1998-99:1999-00 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Acres ------- ------- Pounds ------ ---- 1,000 Pounds --- : HI : 5,800 6,100 6,400 1,620 1,560 1,640 9,400 9,500 10,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Parchment basis. November Weather Summary A remarkably warm, dry pattern that stressed developing winter wheat in the Plains, Ohio Valley, and the South began to break down toward month's end. Nevertheless, no rain fell during November in the southern Plains or the Southwest, and totals greater than one-half inch were scarce on the Plains except from eastern Nebraska southward into eastern Texas. In contrast, a month-long spell of heavy precipitation kept the Northwest wet, especially from the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada westward to the coast. The 9-month drought persisted in the interior Northwest, however, primarily from southeastern Oregon and southern Idaho southward into the northern Great Basin. Farther east, drought stretched through a 16th month in much of the middle and lower Ohio Valley, despite beneficial late-month showers. Meanwhile, a fourth consecutive month of extremely dry weather left topsoil parched from central and eastern Texas to the Delta. Fueled by an early- to mid-month warm spell that produced well over 800 daily record highs and more than six dozen monthly record highs, November temperatures averaged above normal nearly nationwide. Monthly departures ranged from +4 to +12 degrees F on the Plains and +4 to +8 degrees F in the Midwest. Well-above-normal temperatures were also observed elsewhere, except along the Gulf Coast, where near-normal readings prevailed. General Crop Comments: Dry weather provided excellent conditions for finishing the row crop harvest, completing fall tillage, and applying fertilizer. Moisture shortages steadily increased, hindering winter wheat germination and growth, although record warmth stimulated development where adequate moisture was available. After mid-month, dry soils forced some producers in the southern Great Plains and Southeast to delay planting of winter grains. A wet weather pattern developed in the Pacific Northwest, ending drought conditions along the coast and easing dry conditions in some inland areas. In the Atlantic Coastal Plains, the harvest pace gradually accelerated, as a pattern of wet weather was replaced by favorably dry weather. By November 14, the Nation's corn harvest was 98 percent complete, more than 1 week ahead of last year's 93-percent pace and 2 weeks ahead of the 91-percent average for this date. Early in the month, harvest slowed in the Corn Belt, as progress neared completion in most areas. The end of the harvest season approached far ahead of normal in the eastern Corn Belt, and well ahead of normal in the western Corn Belt. As of November 7, harvest progress was more than 30 percentage points ahead of normal in Michigan, and more than 20 percentage points ahead of normal in Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Harvest accelerated in Colorado, South Dakota, and Pennsylvania early in the month and remained active through mid-month, as dry weather aided progress. Ninety-seven percent of the soybean crop was harvested by November 14, slightly ahead of last year's 96-percent pace and more than a week ahead of the 94-percent average for this date. The harvest pace slowed dramatically in the Corn Belt, where most of the acreage was harvested by the beginning of the month. Harvest activity remained brisk in the Mississippi Delta, where warm weather quickly ripened double-cropped and other late-planted fields. On November 7, progress was well ahead of normal along the Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi River Valleys. In the Atlantic Coastal Plains, harvest gained momentum as a dry weather pattern emerged and soils gradually dried. The end of the harvest season approached well ahead of normal in Tennessee and Kentucky. Nearly two-thirds of the cotton was picked when the month began, behind last year's pace, but ahead of the average for this date. In Arkansas, Missouri, and Tennessee, harvest rapidly neared completion early in the month. On November 7, progress was more than 30 percentage points ahead of normal in Oklahoma and 15 percentage points ahead of normal in California. Picking was active in the southern Great Plains, Southwest, and Southeast early in the month, but lagged well behind normal in North Carolina, New Mexico, and Arizona. Dry weather aided harvesting in New Mexico, where the pace accelerated and advanced to near normal by mid-month. As the month progressed, picking gradually accelerated in the Southeast, but progress remained far behind normal in North Carolina. In Texas, picking steadily progressed, but the harvest pace lagged behind the 5-year average. Harvest activity diminished in Oklahoma near mid-month, as the season advanced well beyond the peak. By November 28, eighty-eight percent of the crop was harvested in the U.S., compared with 90 percent last year and the normal pace of 87 percent. Ninety-five percent of the winter wheat acreage was planted by November 14, equal to last year's pace and the 5-year average. By mid-month, planting was complete in the Corn Belt and central and northern Great Plains. Dry weather aided sowing in Arkansas, Missouri, and Oregon early in the month, while increasing moisture shortages limited planting progress in Texas, especially after mid-month. The planting pace was also slow in North Carolina, where sowing was delayed while farmers concentrated on harvesting other crops. Planting was nearly complete in the Pacific Northwest and Mississippi Delta by mid-month, but remained active in the Southeast and California after mid-month. Ninety-one percent of the acreage was emerged on November 28, three percentage points behind last year and the 5-year average. Soft red winter wheat rapidly emerged in the eastern Corn Belt early in the month, despite increasing moisture shortages. Emergence lagged behind normal in Oregon and Texas due to dry soils. Poor stands and slow growth limited livestock grazing in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Conditions deteriorated in Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota due to a combination of moisture shortages and record heat. Unseasonable warmth, usually beneficial to crop growth, aided insect populations and promoted disease development in the central and southern Great Plains. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.1 million acres, is up 25 percent from last year, but unchanged from the November estimate. American-Pima harvested acreage, at 309,200 acres, is up 32 percent from 1998. Harvest of the Texas cotton crop progressed near normal throughout November under generally dry, open conditions. However, the first hard freeze did not occur in the Plains until late November, so many producers sprayed to aid harvest. On November 28, seventy-seven percent of the cotton acreage in Texas was reported harvested. This compares to 78 percent for the 5-year average. Cotton stalk destruction closely followed harvest in many areas. Dry weather aided harvesting in New Mexico throughout November as progress advanced to near normal by mid-month. Cotton objective yield data indicate Texas' crop has the seventh lowest boll weights in the last 10 years. The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) made good progress on harvest and were virtually complete by mid-November. While the dry conditions were instrumental in aiding a quick harvest, these conditions also led to some deterioration in the quality of the crop. Data from objective yield surveys show boll weights in Arkansas and Mississippi were the lowest in the last ten years, while Louisiana's weight was ranked as the ninth lowest out of the last ten years. Arizona's cotton harvest gained momentum during mid-November, but was still behind average. Seventy-nine percent of the acreage was harvested as of November 28, compared to 87 percent for the 5-year average. California, at 96 percent harvested as of November 28, made great progress during the first half of November and was nearly complete by the end of the month. Following harvest in California, fields were being disced for pink bollworm control. December 1 cotton objective yield counts show boll weights in California are the lowest in the last ten years. In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina), harvest progress gradually accelerated during November. However, North Carolina continues to lag behind normal due to adverse weather conditions early in the harvest season. Alabama producers harvested 95 percent of their acreage as of November 28, compared to 94 percent on average. On November 28, Georgia was 4 points ahead of average with 86 percent of the acreage harvested, and South Carolina was 5 points ahead of average with 92 percent harvested. North Carolina continues to be behind normal due to the affects of earlier hurricanes and subsequent wet fields. Generally dry conditions throughout November has allowed progress to accelerate. As of November 28, seventy-two percent of the acreage was harvested, compared to 87 percent on average. American-Pima production is forecast at 679,000 bales, up 54 percent from 1998's output, but down 5,500 bales from the November forecast. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,054 pounds per harvested acre, only 2 pounds per acre below the record high yield set in 1997. The production in California was unchanged from the November forecast, while Arizona's production was reduced 2,000 bales. Harvest made great progress in Arizona during the last two weeks of November, but remained behind the average harvest pace. In California, harvest progressed rapidly during the first half of November and remained ahead of normal. By the end of November, harvest was virtually complete. New Mexico's production was reduced 1,500 bales from November and the Texas crop was lowered 2,000 bales. Ginnings totaled 13,587,200 running bales prior to December 1, compared with 11,309,550 running bales ginned prior to the same date last year and 14,734,600 running bales in 1997. Burley Tobacco: U.S. burley tobacco production is forecast at 545 million pounds, up 2 percent from last month but down 6 percent from last year and 16 percent below 1997. Yields for 1999 are expected to average 1,814 pounds per acre, 64 pounds above last month's forecast but 82 pounds below the average for 1998. Growers are expected to harvest 300,700 acres, 2 percent below both last month and last year. Burley markets opened on November 29. As of December 7, total gross sales for the season totaled 179.8 million pounds. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 3.48 million pounds for November, 10 percent lower than October but 7 percent higher than a year ago. Area devoted to papaya production totaled 3,205 acres, 1 percent lower than October and 15 percent lower than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling 1,585 acres, was 2 percent lower than last month and 28 percent lower than last November. November weather conditions were variable with a mix of sunshine and showers. Dry Beans: Production of dry edible beans is estimated at 33.1 million cwt for 1999, 9 percent above 1998 and 13 percent above two years ago. Area for harvest is estimated at 1.86 million acres, down 3 percent from 1998 but 6 percent above 1997. Average yield, at 1,781 pounds per acre, increased 195 pounds from 1998. Production is up in 1999 for all estimating states except New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Washington, and Wyoming. California and Michigan had major increases in production from 1998. Michigan produced 7.35 million cwt, the highest since 1982 when production was 7.98 million cwt. Michigan also had a record high yield of 2,100 pounds per acre, 250 pounds greater than the previous high of 1,850 pounds per acre set in 1991. California produced 2.60 million cwt for 1999, 67 percent above 1998. In North Dakota early harvest progress was a week behind average due to late plantings in the spring, and wet weather during early September. However, due to dry conditions during October, harvest was virtually complete by the third week, slightly ahead of average. Wet conditions during the growing season in some areas of the Northeast district promoted diseases such as white mold which contributed to abandoned acreage. Michigan's dry bean harvest was completed by the third week in October, well ahead of normal. Timely rains lessened the effect of root rot and dry conditions late in the growing season held white mold in check. The result was a record yield. In Nebraska yield is the second highest in the decade, however, hail damage during the growing season and rain damage before harvest in some areas left a large amount of unharvested acres. In California harvest went well this season with good quality reported. Harvest in Idaho was completed ahead of average due to good weather conditions during harvest. Yields for dryland producers in Colorado are higher due to adequate moisture during the growing season. In New York, some acreage was abandoned due to the effects of dry weather during the summer. Unharvested acres in Minnesota were up due to wet conditions in the Northwest district of the State. In Wisconsin, yields were lower due to hot and dry conditions during the end of July. Utah's dry bean production is up this year due to ample rains during the growing season in their major growing area. Yield results were mixed in Montana. Some growers had excellent growing conditions and produced a favorable crop, while other areas received significant moisture during harvest which caused poor quality and abandonment. Production is above 1998 levels for all varieties except black, pink, and pinto. Pinto, the largest variety, decreased 23 percent from 1998, while navy, the next largest variety, increased 88 percent. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 1999-00 grapefruit crop for the United States is 2.47 million tons. The forecast is down 6 percent from the initial October forecast and down 2 percent from last season. The Florida grapefruit crop is forecast at 46.0 million boxes (1.96 million tons), unchanged from the special November 1 forecast that Florida conducted due to Hurricane Irene that passed through in mid-October, but down 8 percent from the October forecast. The white seedless forecast, at 18.5 million boxes (786,000 tons), is down 10 percent from October but up 4 percent from last year. The colored seedless utilization is forecast at 27.0 million boxes (1.15 million tons), 7 percent less than the initial forecast and 6 percent less than the 1998-99 season. The seedy grapefruit crop is expected to total 500,000 boxes (21,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 9 percent less than the previous season. The Texas grapefruit forecast remained at 5.50 million boxes (220,000 tons) and is down 10 percent from last season. The California and Arizona forecasts are brought forward from earlier forecasts. Tangelos: The 1999-00 tangelo forecast from Florida remains at 2.60 million boxes (117,000 tons), 2 percent more than last season's utilized production. Average fruit size and below average droppage contributed to the increase from last season. Movement to date is considerably less than this time last year. Tangerines: The 1999-00 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 416,000 tons, up 27 percent from the freeze-damaged crop last season. Florida's tangerine forecast continues at 6.40 million boxes (304,000 tons), 29 percent higher than last season. Below average fruit drop and higher fruit count per tree lead to the increase over last season's final utilization. The sizes of Florida tangerines are mostly below average. Nearly a third of Florida's tangerine crop has been harvested as of December 1. The California and Arizona forecasts are brought forward from earlier forecasts. Temples: Florida's 1999-00 Temple forecast is 2.10 million boxes (94,500 tons), unchanged from the initial forecast in October and 17 percent higher than the 1.80 million boxes recorded last season. Fruit sizes continue to be below average. Loss from droppage is average. Harvest has not yet started. K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 1999-00 is 90,000 boxes (4,050 tons), an increase of 20,000 boxes from October's initial forecast and 10,000 boxes more than the final utilization last season. Just over 80,000 boxes have been utilized as of December 1. Florida Citrus: Growers and caretakers have been irrigating to maintain good tree and fruit condition in Florida's citrus growing counties because of dry weather. There was limited new foliage due to the lack of moisture, shorter days, and cooler temperatures. By the end of November, most of the early types of fruit had excellent on-tree coloring suitable for fresh pack. Maturity continues to be a problem on many early crops due to prolonged and multiple blooms last spring. Some fresh fruit picking crews were spot picking fruit to avoid the later bloom green fruit. All of the packinghouses and most of the processing plants were running full time. Some of the processors were running around the clock to move the fruit they have committed. Caretakers were very busy during the month cutting cover crops that had grown out of control with the help of the heavy rains in October. Some sprays were applied to help prevent brown rot. Growers were still pushing and burning dead trees. Some resetting continued in the larger groves. Texas Citrus: Texas is looking forward to a good crop this year. Grapefruit and early orange quality is very good. Movement to date is well ahead of last year's pace. No adverse weather has affected the Rio Grande Valley. California Citrus: Picking of the 1998-99 Valencia oranges was completed and the harvest of the 1999-00 navel oranges gathered momentum in November. Color and maturity have been behind normal progress in the new crop navels. Lemon and grapefruit picking was active in southern California. Tangerine harvest was also active. California Fruits and Nuts: With the harvest completed for many noncitrus fruit and nut crops, growers kept busy with pruning, tree removal, and planting of cover crops. Other activities included fumigating the ground in preparation for new settings of peach, prune, walnut, and almond trees. Kiwifruit and persimmon harvests were still active in November, but picking of grapes for fresh and wine uses was winding down. Olive and pecan harvests were also near completion by month's end. Pecans: The December forecast for 1999 pecan production is 324 million pounds, unchanged from October. This compares to last year's 146 million pounds. Pecans, known for their alternate bearing pattern, were expected to yield a large 1999 crop. However, dry weather has limited overall quantity as well as quality. Improved varieties are expected to account for 228 million pounds of the total while native and seedling varieties are projected to make up the difference of 95.7 million pounds. The Georgia's portion, at 90.0 million pounds, is down 10.0 million from the October forecast. The lack of rain has seriously affected quality in non-irrigated orchards while irrigated groves are generally producing better quality nuts. The Texas forecast has also been lowered 10.0 million pounds to 80.0 million. The colder temperatures pushed harvest progress pass the halfway mark. Dry conditions and insect damage are limiting factors. New Mexico's production is expected to reach 50.0 million pounds, with the crop in generally good condition. Oklahoma was the only other December forecast state to change from the October forecast, increasing their estimate to 35.0 million pounds. If realized, this crop would tie 1997's crop as being the largest since 47.0 million were harvested in 1988. Sugarcane: Production is forecast at a record high 36.6 million tons, 6 percent above the previous record of 34.7 million tons set last year. U.S. sugarcane growers intend to harvest a record high 991,200 acres for sugar and seed during the 1999 crop year, 5 percent more than last year's final harvested acres. The record high acreage is due to a 30,000 acre expansion in Louisiana and a 13,000 acre increase in Florida. Yield is forecast at 37.0 tons per acre, slightly above last year's yield of 36.6 tons. Louisiana's forecasted yield, at 34.0 tons per acre is a record high, 4.3 tons above the previous record high set last year. Harvest steadily progressed with few rain delays. In Florida, all mills were grinding cane and about one-fourth of the acreage was harvested by the end of November. Louisiana's harvest was 61 percent complete as of November 29, slightly ahead of the 60-percent average for that date. By the end of the month, harvest was nearly complete in Hawaii, but remained active in Texas. Coffee: Hawaii coffee production is estimated at 10.5 million pounds (parchment basis) for the 1999-00 season, up 11 percent from the 1998-99 season and the largest output since the 1962-63 season. Coffee production from the island of Hawaii (includes the Kona districts), is expected to be lower than last season. Less than favorable weather, heavy pruning the previous season, and relatively low farm prices are responsible for the decline. Harvesting on the islands of Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai is anticipated to show increases. Nearly all fields on these islands are irrigated, which offset the dry conditions and uneven rainfall that affected growers on the island of Hawaii. Harvested acreage is estimated at a record high 6,400 acres, up 5 percent from last season. Reliability of December 1 Crop Production Forecasts Survey Procedures: Cotton objective yield surveys were conducted to gather information on expected yields as of December 1. The objective yield surveys were conducted in the major producing States that normally account for approximately 80 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected fields and plots within fields are surveyed each month. At crop maturity, the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield survey estimates were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. In addition, reports from cotton ginners in each State were considered. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published December 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The December 1 cotton production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made in January followed by end-of-season estimates in May. At the end of the marketing year, administrative records are reviewed and revisions are made, if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised at any time a production forecast is made, if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the 20-year (1979-1998) period is computed; then the square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 cotton production forecast is 1.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 1.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.0 percent. Changes between the December 1 forecast and the final estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 205,000 bales, ranging from 26,000 to 479,000 bales. The December 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 11 times and above 9 times. The difference does not imply that the December 1 cotton forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. C. Ray Halley, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Brad Parks, Head (202) 720-2127 Rhonda Brandt - Corn (202) 720-9526 Herman Ellison - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Roy Karkosh - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Jerry Ramirez - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4488 Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270 Keith Lacy - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Harry Nishimoto - Hops (360) 902-1940 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on January 11, 2000. 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Commodity Outlook, 2000 and Beyond Coming to Terms with Biotechnology Future of Farming and Rural America Farming under Contract Impact of Agribusiness Mergers New Markets: E-Commerce, Organic Foods, Biomass WTO Talks, Animal & Plant Health Trade Rules Bring your future into focus at the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Outlook Forum 2000. Hear industry leaders, producers and top officials discuss issues confronting agriculture. Receive up-to-date commodity forecasts plus new 10-year projections. Network with hundreds of experts from agriculture, business and government at this popular event. For program and registration details, access the Forum web site, send an e-mail to agforum@oce.usda.gov, or call 202-720-3050. Register today; rates go up after February 1. www.usda.gov/oce February 24-25, 2000 Arlington, Virginia