Cr Pr 2-2 (10-00) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 12, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Corn Production Down 2 Percent from September Soybeans Down 3 percent All Cotton Down 5 percent Corn grain production is forecast at 10.2 billion bushels, down 2 percent from last month, but up 8 percent from 1999. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 139.6 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from last month but up 5.8 bushels from a year ago. If realized, this would be the largest production and yield on record. Acreage for harvest is estimated at 73.0 million acres, down 50,000 acres from last month due to extremely dry weather in Colorado. Soybean production is forecast at a record high 2.82 billion bushels, down 3 percent from September 1, but 6 percent above 1999. The yield forecast, at 38.7 bushels per acre, decreased 0.8 bushel from last month, but is 2.1 bushels above the 1999 final yield. Acres expected for harvest are forecast at a record 73.0 million acres, down 1 percent from September, but up 1 percent from 1999. Acres expected for harvest were decreased by 450,000 acres in eight States due to abandonment or harvested for hay. Downward adjustments to harvested acres were made in Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. Revisions to 1999 soybean acres, yield, and production were published in the September 29, 2000 Grain Stocks release. All cotton production is forecast at 17.5 million 480-pound bales, down 5 percent from last month, but up 3 percent from 1999. Yield is expected to average 620 pounds per harvested acre, down 2 pounds from last month. Dry weather and above-normal temperatures continue to stress the crop and lead to increased abandonment. Harvested acreage, at 13.5 million acres, reflects a decrease from September 1 of 25,000 acres in Missouri, 50,000 acres in Oklahoma, and 504,000 acres in Texas. The U.S. all orange initial forecast for the 2000-01 crop is 13.1 million tons, virtually the same as last year's crop, but 4 percent less than the record large 13.7 million tons in 1997-98. Florida's all orange forecast is 240 million boxes (10.8 million tons), 3 percent above the 233 million boxes (10.5 million tons) produced last season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 135 million boxes (6.08 million tons), 1 percent higher than last season. Florida's Valencia forecast is a record large 105 million boxes (4.73 million tons), 6 percent above last season's final utilization. California's all orange production for the 2000-01 crop year is forecast at 59.0 million boxes (2.21 million tons), 12 percent less than the previous crop. The Navel orange forecast, at 34.0 million boxes (1.28 million tons), was carried forward from September and is 15 percent lower than the previous year's utilization. The initial California Valencia forecast for the 2000-01 season is 25.0 million boxes (938,000 tons), 7 percent below the 1999-00 crop year utilization. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2000-01 season is forecast at 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is virtually the same as last season's yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The 1998-99 final yield was a record high 1.63 gallons and the 1997-98 season yield was 1.58 gallons per box. Projected juice yield for 2000-01 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. This report was approved on October 12, 2000. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Keith J. Collins Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Frederic A. Vogel Contents Page Apples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 Beans, Dry Edible . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 Canola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Corn for Grain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Corn for Grain, Ears Per Acre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32 Fruit and Nuts Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26 Grapes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 Alfalfa Hay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Other Hay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Hazelnuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46 Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 Peanuts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Pecans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 Potatoes, Winter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . . . . . . . . .44 Rice, by State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Rice, by Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Sorghum for Grain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Soybeans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Sunflower. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Sunflower, Acres by Variety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Tobacco, by State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 Tobacco, by Class and Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32 Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1999 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2000 : : : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 :-------------------: 1999 : 2000 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels -------- --- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 200 160 103.0 70.0 70.0 20,600 11,200 AR : 100 185 130.0 120.0 125.0 13,000 23,125 CA : 205 235 165.0 170.0 170.0 33,825 39,950 CO : 1,120 1,180 142.0 135.0 135.0 159,040 159,300 DE : 154 154 89.0 160.0 165.0 13,706 25,410 GA : 300 340 103.0 100.0 100.0 30,900 34,000 IL : 10,650 11,050 140.0 158.0 155.0 1,491,000 1,712,750 IN : 5,670 5,550 132.0 155.0 151.0 748,440 838,050 IA : 11,800 12,000 149.0 155.0 148.0 1,758,200 1,776,000 KS : 2,980 3,250 141.0 133.0 128.0 420,180 416,000 KY : 1,180 1,310 105.0 127.0 130.0 123,900 170,300 LA : 330 340 121.0 108.0 108.0 39,930 36,720 MD : 360 400 93.0 155.0 155.0 33,480 62,000 MI : 1,950 1,950 130.0 131.0 128.0 253,500 249,600 MN : 6,600 6,600 150.0 156.0 152.0 990,000 1,003,200 MS : 310 380 117.0 103.0 104.0 36,270 39,520 MO : 2,550 2,850 97.0 139.0 144.0 247,350 410,400 NE : 8,300 8,050 139.0 128.0 127.0 1,153,700 1,022,350 NJ : 60 75 37.0 128.0 128.0 2,220 9,600 NM : 83 75 180.0 180.0 170.0 14,940 12,750 NY : 590 530 101.0 106.0 106.0 59,590 56,180 NC : 640 660 80.0 110.0 110.0 51,200 72,600 ND : 655 950 117.0 116.0 116.0 76,635 110,200 OH : 3,200 3,300 126.0 145.0 152.0 403,200 501,600 OK : 310 290 145.0 135.0 130.0 44,950 37,700 PA : 880 1,050 70.0 129.0 129.0 61,600 135,450 SC : 275 280 70.0 70.0 70.0 19,250 19,600 SD : 3,250 3,950 113.0 108.0 108.0 367,250 426,600 TN : 570 590 102.0 108.0 109.0 58,140 64,310 TX : 1,770 1,850 129.0 132.0 132.0 228,330 244,200 VA : 280 300 78.0 135.0 140.0 21,840 42,000 WA : 100 95 180.0 185.0 185.0 18,000 17,575 WI : 2,850 2,750 143.0 140.0 136.0 407,550 374,000 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 265 280 134.4 134.7 134.2 35,621 37,577 : US : 70,537 73,009 133.8 141.8 139.6 9,437,337 10,191,817 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, FL, ID, MT, OR, UT, WV, and WY. Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1999 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2000 : : : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 :-------------------: 1999 : 2000 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- 1,000 Bushels : AR : 125 140 78.0 70.0 69.0 9,750 9,660 CO : 205 190 42.0 36.0 32.0 8,610 6,080 IL : 97 85 95.0 104.0 106.0 9,215 9,010 KS : 3,400 3,100 76.0 60.0 57.0 258,400 176,700 LA : 235 205 82.0 80.0 82.0 19,270 16,810 MO : 310 270 71.0 95.0 95.0 22,010 25,650 NE : 470 470 91.0 70.0 70.0 42,770 32,900 NM : 135 60 55.0 30.0 30.0 7,425 1,800 OK : 400 350 45.0 49.0 43.0 18,000 15,050 SD : 80 100 58.0 46.0 46.0 4,640 4,600 TX : 2,950 2,500 63.0 62.0 61.0 185,850 152,500 : Oth : Sts 1/2/: 137 195 67.3 74.6 74.8 9,226 14,588 : US : 8,544 7,665 69.7 62.1 60.7 595,166 465,348 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ For 1999, Other States include AL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, and TN. 2/ For 2000, Other States include AZ, AL, CA, DE, GA, KY, MD, MS, NC, PA, SC, TN, and VA. Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1999 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 2000 : : : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 :-------------------: 1999 : 2000 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Pounds -------- ---- 1,000 Cwt --- : AR : 1,625 1,410 5,850 6,100 6,050 95,054 85,305 CA : 505 548 7,270 7,900 7,900 36,690 43,292 LA : 616 495 5,000 4,900 4,980 30,825 24,651 MS : 323 218 5,650 5,900 6,050 18,250 13,189 MO : 184 175 5,400 5,400 5,700 9,936 9,975 TX : 259 239 5,900 6,600 6,600 15,272 15,774 : US : 3,512 3,085 5,866 6,212 6,230 206,027 192,186 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rice: Production by Class, United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain : All : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 1998 : 139,328 43,404 1,711 184,443 1999 : 151,863 50,540 3,624 206,027 2000 1/ : 130,446 59,313 2,427 192,186 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Indicated October 1, 2000, rice class estimates are based on a 5-year average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data become available through the growing season. Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1999 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2000 : : : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 :-------------------: 1999 : 2000 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 200 160 16.0 19.0 18.0 3,200 2,880 AR : 3,300 3,350 28.0 26.0 26.0 92,400 87,100 DE : 201 221 27.0 38.0 39.0 5,427 8,619 GA : 190 180 19.0 21.0 22.0 3,610 3,960 IL : 10,550 10,250 42.0 47.0 46.0 443,100 471,500 IN : 5,550 5,660 39.0 46.0 46.0 216,450 260,360 IA : 10,750 10,550 44.5 47.0 44.0 478,375 464,200 KS : 2,800 2,700 29.0 24.0 22.0 81,200 59,400 KY : 1,160 1,080 21.0 36.0 40.0 24,360 43,200 LA : 990 880 27.0 23.0 23.0 26,730 20,240 MD : 480 490 32.0 38.0 38.0 15,360 18,620 MI : 1,940 2,190 40.0 41.0 40.0 77,600 87,600 MN : 6,900 7,100 42.0 42.0 41.0 289,800 291,100 MS : 1,900 1,620 23.5 23.0 23.0 44,650 37,260 MO : 5,350 5,100 27.5 38.0 37.0 147,125 188,700 NE : 4,250 4,600 42.5 38.0 37.0 180,625 170,200 NJ : 98 93 24.0 35.0 36.0 2,352 3,348 NY : 128 165 37.0 38.0 36.0 4,736 5,940 NC : 1,300 1,330 23.0 30.0 30.0 29,900 39,900 ND : 1,340 2,070 35.0 33.0 33.0 46,900 68,310 OH : 4,500 4,390 36.0 43.0 43.0 162,000 188,770 OK : 360 350 19.0 24.0 21.0 6,840 7,350 PA : 350 395 29.0 42.0 42.0 10,150 16,590 SC : 450 450 20.0 23.0 24.0 9,000 10,800 SD : 4,070 4,250 36.0 35.0 35.0 146,520 148,750 TN : 1,200 1,160 19.0 26.0 27.0 22,800 31,320 TX : 380 300 27.0 33.0 30.0 10,260 9,000 VA : 440 460 27.0 34.0 35.0 11,880 16,100 WI : 1,300 1,440 46.0 44.0 42.0 59,800 60,480 : Oth : Sts 1/ 2/: 19 40 32.0 30.2 30.6 608 1,224 : US : 72,446 73,024 36.6 39.5 38.7 2,653,758 2,822,821 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ For 1999, Other States include FL. 2/ For 2000, Other States include FL and WV. Sunflower: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Varietal : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Type & :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 1/ : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : Oil : CO : 172 113 1,350 149,800 232,200 KS : 240 256 1,550 243,350 372,000 MN : 77 53 1,450 117,450 111,650 NE : 47 59 1,350 47,120 63,450 ND : 1,220 990 1,150 2,433,200 1,403,000 SD : 862 750 1,430 1,451,400 1,232,660 TX : 24 29 900 6,600 21,600 : Oth : Sts 2/3/ : 53 41 1,156 37,440 61,260 : US : 2,695 2,291 1,298 4,486,360 3,497,820 : Non-Oil : CO : 93 52 1,250 49,450 116,250 KS : 27 19 1,250 24,000 33,750 MN : 43 23 1,200 47,500 51,600 NE : 50 34 1,050 33,900 52,500 ND : 425 260 1,090 539,600 463,250 SD : 48 38 1,450 55,770 69,600 TX : 43 43 900 23,100 38,700 : Oth : Sts 2/3/ : 17 15 1,082 13,482 18,392 : US : 746 484 1,131 786,802 844,042 : All : CO : 265 165 1,315 1,060 199,250 348,450 174,900 KS : 267 275 1,520 1,100 267,350 405,750 302,500 MN : 120 76 1,360 1,480 164,950 163,250 112,480 NE : 97 93 1,195 1,030 81,020 115,950 95,790 ND : 1,645 1,250 1,134 1,400 2,972,800 1,866,250 1,750,000 SD : 910 788 1,431 1,450 1,507,170 1,302,260 1,142,600 TX : 67 72 900 1,000 29,700 60,300 72,000 : Oth : Sts 2/3/ : 70 56 1,138 1,110 50,922 79,652 62,187 : US : 3,441 2,775 1,262 1,338 5,273,162 4,341,862 3,712,457 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2000 yield and production estimates for oil and non-oil varieties will be published in the January Crop Production Summary. 2/ 1998 and 1999, Other States include AR, CA, DE, FL, GA, IL, IN, KY, LA, MD, MI, MS, MO, MT, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OH, OK, PA, SC, TN, UT, VA, WA, WI, and WY. 3/ For 2000, Other States include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY. Sunflower: Area Planted by Varietal Type, State and United States, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Varietal Type State :----------------------------------------------------------- : Oil : Non-Oil : All -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CO : 175 95 270 KS : 250 30 280 MN : 80 50 130 NE : 49 52 101 ND : 1,250 450 1,700 SD : 870 50 920 TX : 25 50 75 : Oth Sts : 58 19 77 : US : 2,757 796 3,553 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1999 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 2000 : : : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 :-------------------: 1999 : 2000 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres -- --------- Pounds -------- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : AL : 206.0 195.0 2,175 1,400 1,400 448,050 273,000 FL : 94.0 80.0 2,770 2,300 2,400 260,380 192,000 GA : 544.0 507.0 2,575 2,500 2,600 1,400,800 1,318,200 NM : 22.0 22.0 2,800 2,700 2,600 61,600 57,200 NC : 124.0 125.0 2,410 3,000 2,950 298,840 368,750 OK : 79.0 80.0 2,400 2,400 2,200 189,600 176,000 SC : 11.0 11.5 2,300 2,900 3,000 25,300 34,500 TX : 280.0 300.0 3,310 3,100 2,750 926,800 825,000 VA : 76.0 75.0 2,870 3,000 3,000 218,120 225,000 : US : 1,436.0 1,395.5 2,667 2,561 2,486 3,829,490 3,469,650 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates comprised of quota and non-quota peanuts. Canola: Area Harvested, Yield and Production by State and United States, 1999 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Pounds --- --- 1,000 Pounds -- : MN : 100 250 1,300 1,360 130,000 340,000 ND : 835 1,070 1,300 1,300 1,085,500 1,391,000 : Oth Sts 1/ 2/ : 109 139 1,359 1,330 148,180 184,825 : US : 1,044 1,459 1,306 1,313 1,363,680 1,915,825 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ For 1999, Other States include AL, AZ, AR, CA, CO, DE, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MD, MI, MO, MT, NE, NJ, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, WA, WI, and WY. 2/ For 2000, Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, KS, MI, MT, NY, OR, PA, SC, SD, and WA. Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 1999 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 2000 : : State : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 :-------------------: 1999 : 2000 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 561.0 540.0 535 489 489 625.0 550.0 AZ : 269.0 279.0 1,278 1,230 1,273 716.0 740.0 AR : 960.0 950.0 714 728 728 1,428.0 1,440.0 CA : 605.0 765.0 1,254 1,255 1,286 1,580.0 2,050.0 GA : 1,300.0 1,300.0 579 620 598 1,567.0 1,620.0 LA : 610.0 700.0 709 672 631 901.0 920.0 MS : 1,180.0 1,280.0 704 686 638 1,731.0 1,700.0 MO : 377.0 400.0 601 678 696 472.0 580.0 NM : 79.0 85.0 662 734 734 109.0 130.0 NC : 825.0 930.0 475 723 723 816.0 1,400.0 OK : 150.0 200.0 461 442 444 144.0 185.0 SC : 315.0 310.0 428 573 604 281.0 390.0 TN : 565.0 595.0 505 565 565 595.0 700.0 TX : 5,100.0 4,800.0 475 453 440 5,050.0 4,400.0 VA : 108.0 109.0 635 722 700 142.8 159.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 134.0 129.0 487 428 428 135.9 115.0 : US :13,138.0 13,372.0 595 616 613 16,293.7 17,079.0 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 8.9 6.0 879 848 848 16.3 10.6 CA : 239.0 144.0 1,210 1,200 1,200 602.7 360.0 NM : 7.0 6.0 734 680 680 10.7 8.5 TX : 32.0 16.0 669 768 810 44.6 27.0 : US : 286.9 172.0 1,128 1,121 1,133 674.3 406.1 : All : AL : 561.0 540.0 535 489 489 625.0 550.0 AZ : 277.9 285.0 1,265 1,222 1,264 732.3 750.6 AR : 960.0 950.0 714 728 728 1,428.0 1,440.0 CA : 844.0 909.0 1,241 1,246 1,273 2,182.7 2,410.0 GA : 1,300.0 1,300.0 579 620 598 1,567.0 1,620.0 LA : 610.0 700.0 709 672 631 901.0 920.0 MS : 1,180.0 1,280.0 704 686 638 1,731.0 1,700.0 MO : 377.0 400.0 601 678 696 472.0 580.0 NM : 86.0 91.0 668 731 731 119.7 138.5 NC : 825.0 930.0 475 723 723 816.0 1,400.0 OK : 150.0 200.0 461 442 444 144.0 185.0 SC : 315.0 310.0 428 573 604 281.0 390.0 TN : 565.0 595.0 505 565 565 595.0 700.0 TX : 5,132.0 4,816.0 477 454 441 5,094.6 4,427.0 VA : 108.0 109.0 635 722 700 142.8 159.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 134.0 129.0 487 428 428 135.9 115.0 : US :13,424.9 13,544.0 607 622 620 16,968.0 17,485.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3/ Other States include FL and KS. Individual state level forecasts will be published in the "January Crop Production" report. Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 5,365.4 6,353.5 6,552.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : AZ : 200 210 7.90 8.50 1,600 1,580 1,785 CA : 1,030 1,020 6.80 6.90 6,930 7,004 7,038 CO : 900 870 3.80 4.00 3,402 3,420 3,480 ID : 1,150 1,130 4.00 4.20 4,859 4,600 4,746 IL : 500 530 4.00 4.20 2,520 2,000 2,226 IN : 400 390 3.70 4.30 1,640 1,480 1,677 IA : 1,300 1,250 3.90 3.70 4,500 5,070 4,625 KS : 850 850 4.40 3.70 4,600 3,740 3,145 KY : 250 200 2.90 3.80 875 725 760 MI : 950 1,000 3.80 4.00 2,805 3,610 4,000 MN : 1,600 1,550 3.50 3.60 5,580 5,600 5,580 MO : 450 470 2.90 2.50 1,463 1,305 1,175 MT : 1,650 1,100 2.20 1.60 3,740 3,630 1,760 NE : 1,400 1,350 3.70 3.10 5,250 5,180 4,185 NV : 255 260 4.10 4.00 1,196 1,046 1,040 NM : 290 290 5.20 5.10 1,377 1,508 1,479 NY : 550 500 2.30 3.00 1,470 1,265 1,500 ND : 1,450 1,500 2.15 2.40 2,450 3,118 3,600 OH : 600 570 3.00 3.30 1,925 1,800 1,881 OK : 360 330 3.50 3.70 910 1,260 1,221 OR : 420 410 4.40 3.90 1,920 1,848 1,599 PA : 700 750 2.40 3.00 1,960 1,680 2,250 SD : 2,400 2,600 2.80 2.00 5,760 6,720 5,200 TX : 130 120 5.50 4.30 630 715 516 UT : 540 550 4.40 4.10 2,398 2,376 2,255 VA : 120 120 2.50 3.80 324 300 456 WA : 470 470 4.90 5.10 2,400 2,303 2,397 WI : 2,100 2,000 3.10 3.00 5,320 6,510 6,000 WY : 660 620 2.70 2.30 1,560 1,782 1,426 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 310 307 2.42 3.16 946 749 969 : US : 23,985 23,317 3.50 3.43 82,310 83,924 79,971 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AR, CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NC, RI, TN, VT, and WV. All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : AL : 800 720 2.30 1.60 1,575 1,840 1,152 AR : 1,220 1,230 1.91 2.10 2,185 2,330 2,583 CA : 540 510 2.70 2.90 1,624 1,458 1,479 CO : 620 680 1.90 1.70 1,200 1,178 1,156 GA : 600 600 2.50 2.20 1,495 1,500 1,320 ID : 280 260 1.90 2.30 690 532 598 IL : 350 350 2.10 2.10 875 735 735 IN : 300 280 2.50 2.80 1,050 750 784 IA : 400 450 2.25 2.10 832 900 945 KS : 1,850 1,950 1.90 1.50 3,420 3,515 2,925 KY : 2,150 2,350 1.90 2.20 4,830 4,085 5,170 LA : 380 330 2.40 1.40 726 912 462 MI : 350 300 2.30 2.40 760 805 720 MN : 850 800 1.80 2.10 1,530 1,530 1,680 MS : 850 870 1.90 1.60 1,738 1,615 1,392 MO : 3,200 3,250 1.85 1.80 6,240 5,920 5,850 MT : 950 700 1.50 1.20 1,280 1,425 840 NE : 1,800 1,750 1.35 1.10 2,430 2,430 1,925 NY : 950 950 1.80 2.20 1,640 1,710 2,090 NC : 690 690 2.15 2.50 1,430 1,484 1,725 ND : 1,450 1,400 1.65 1.30 1,740 2,393 1,820 OH : 700 830 1.80 2.70 1,950 1,260 2,241 OK : 2,200 2,100 1.70 1.70 2,470 3,740 3,570 OR : 680 650 2.00 1.90 1,454 1,360 1,235 PA : 1,200 1,150 1.40 2.10 1,955 1,680 2,415 SD : 1,600 1,500 1.70 1.30 2,400 2,720 1,950 TN : 1,850 1,900 2.00 2.30 3,850 3,700 4,370 TX : 5,400 4,800 2.30 1.90 6,240 12,420 9,120 VA : 1,150 1,170 1.60 2.30 2,280 1,840 2,691 WA : 270 300 2.80 2.90 756 756 870 WV : 530 540 1.30 2.30 1,007 689 1,242 WI : 500 500 2.00 2.00 1,050 1,000 1,000 WY : 630 550 1.60 1.20 885 1,008 660 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,885 1,864 2.09 2.13 3,883 3,933 3,965 : US : 39,175 38,274 1.92 1.90 69,470 75,153 72,680 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, CT, DE, FL, ME, MD, MA, NV, NH, NJ, NM, RI, SC, UT, and VT. Dry Edible Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : CA : 132.0 112.0 1,970 2,000 1,554 2,600 2,240 CO : 145.0 110.0 1,900 1,850 2,868 2,755 2,035 ID : 103.0 88.0 2,050 1,900 2,112 2,112 1,672 KS : 20.9 17.0 1,850 1,700 380 387 289 MI : 350.0 295.0 2,100 1,650 4,425 7,350 4,868 MN : 165.0 135.0 1,550 1,300 2,538 2,558 1,755 MT 2/ : 25.5 28.0 1,730 1,700 350 441 476 NE : 187.0 160.0 2,000 2,000 3,666 3,740 3,200 NM 2/3/ : 1.0 1,800 171 18 NY : 30.2 24.0 1,370 1,500 426 414 360 ND : 570.0 490.0 1,450 1,330 9,798 8,265 6,517 OR 2/ : 10.8 11.8 1,610 1,950 152 174 230 SD 4/ : 10.0 1,700 170 TX : 47.0 16.2 1,490 950 135 701 154 UT 2/ : 6.6 5.1 800 160 30 53 8 WA : 36.0 32.0 2,080 2,150 890 750 688 WI 2/ : 8.0 8.3 1,550 1,800 115 124 149 WY : 39.0 37.0 2,020 2,140 808 788 792 : US : 1,877.0 1,579.4 1,770 1,621 30,418 33,230 25,603 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ Estimates discontinued in 2000. 4/ Estimates began in 2000. Winter Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1999-00 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 8.5 9.0 8.5 9.0 FL : 9.6 8.2 9.3 8.0 : US : 18.1 17.2 17.8 17.0 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- Cwt -------- ------ 1,000 Cwt ------ : CA : 260 320 2,210 2,880 FL : 200 260 1,860 2,080 : US : 229 292 4,070 4,960 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2000 revised. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Acres ----- ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds -------- : CT : 3,040 1,700 1,799 1,182 4,276 5,470 2,009 FL : 5,800 4,900 2,640 2,450 17,102 15,312 12,005 GA : 33,000 30,000 1,940 2,300 90,200 64,020 69,000 IN : 6,500 3,800 1,800 2,100 17,000 11,700 7,980 KY : 221,650 137,500 1,843 2,162 443,628 408,492 297,310 MD : 6,500 6,000 1,400 1,550 9,100 9,100 9,300 MA : 1,320 550 1,763 815 1,788 2,327 448 MO 1/ : 2,300 1,400 2,015 2,180 5,751 4,635 3,052 NC : 207,800 175,800 2,161 2,479 551,730 448,980 435,870 OH : 9,800 7,500 1,740 1,780 17,934 17,052 13,350 PA : 6,200 5,100 1,802 1,997 15,720 11,170 10,185 SC : 39,000 34,000 2,000 2,300 92,250 78,000 78,200 TN : 63,170 54,190 1,941 2,170 111,100 122,601 117,592 VA : 38,300 27,400 2,320 2,330 95,898 88,855 63,830 WV 1/ : 1,600 1,500 1,350 1,600 2,160 2,160 2,400 WI : 1,180 920 2,388 2,100 4,230 2,818 1,932 : US : 647,160 492,260 1,997 2,284 1,479,867 1,292,692 1,124,463 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1999 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 55,000 45,000 2,400 2,500 132,000 112,500 VA : 26,000 17,000 2,420 2,450 62,920 41,650 US : 81,000 62,000 2,406 2,486 194,920 154,150 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 119,000 102,000 2,100 2,550 249,900 260,100 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 26,000 21,000 2,100 2,400 54,600 50,400 SC : 39,000 34,000 2,000 2,300 78,000 78,200 US : 65,000 55,000 2,040 2,338 132,600 128,600 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 5,800 4,900 2,640 2,450 15,312 12,005 GA : 33,000 30,000 1,940 2,300 64,020 69,000 US : 38,800 34,900 2,045 2,321 79,332 81,005 Total 11-14 : 303,800 253,900 2,162 2,457 656,752 623,855 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 1,600 1,300 1,670 1,700 2,672 2,210 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 3,750 4,000 2,350 2,650 8,813 10,600 TN : 7,000 7,900 2,280 2,500 15,960 19,750 US : 10,750 11,900 2,304 2,550 24,773 30,350 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 3,500 3,800 2,630 3,200 9,205 12,160 TN : 570 630 2,500 3,000 1,425 1,890 US : 4,070 4,430 2,612 3,172 10,630 14,050 Total 21-23 : 16,420 17,630 2,319 2,644 38,075 46,610 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 6,500 3,800 1,800 2,100 11,700 7,980 KY : 210,000 125,000 1,810 2,100 380,100 262,500 MO 1/ : 2,300 1,400 2,015 2,180 4,635 3,052 NC : 7,800 7,800 1,600 1,650 12,480 12,870 OH : 9,800 7,500 1,740 1,780 17,052 13,350 TN : 55,000 45,000 1,890 2,100 103,950 94,500 VA : 10,600 9,000 2,180 2,200 23,108 19,800 WV 1/ : 1,600 1,500 1,350 1,600 2,160 2,400 US : 303,600 201,000 1,829 2,072 555,185 416,452 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 6,500 6,000 1,400 1,550 9,100 9,300 PA : 3,000 2,700 1,750 1,950 5,250 5,265 US : 9,500 8,700 1,511 1,674 14,350 14,565 Total 31-32 : 313,100 209,700 1,819 2,055 569,535 431,017 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 1999 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- --- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark Air-cured: Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 2,850 3,000 2,370 2,600 6,755 7,800 TN : 600 660 2,110 2,200 1,266 1,452 US : 3,450 3,660 2,325 2,528 8,021 9,252 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 1,550 1,700 2,335 2,500 3,619 4,250 Type 37, VA Sun-cured : Belt : VA : 100 100 1,550 1,700 155 170 Total 35-37 : 5,100 5,460 2,313 2,504 11,795 13,672 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 3,200 2,400 1,850 2,050 5,920 4,920 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT : 1,530 600 1,650 965 2,525 579 MA : 970 300 1,695 660 1,644 198 US : 2,500 900 1,668 863 4,169 777 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI : WI : 890 690 2,530 2,200 2,252 1,518 Type 55, Northern WI : WI : 290 230 1,952 1,800 566 414 Total 54-55 : 1,180 920 2,388 2,100 2,818 1,932 Total 51-55 : 3,680 1,820 1,899 1,488 6,987 2,709 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper : Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT : 1,510 1,100 1,950 1,300 2,945 1,430 MA : 350 250 1,951 1,000 683 250 US : 1,860 1,350 1,951 1,244 3,628 1,680 All Cigar Types : Total 41-61 : 8,740 5,570 1,892 1,671 16,535 9,309 : All Tobacco : 647,160 492,260 1,997 2,284 1,292,692 1,124,463 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : CA : 108.0 97.0 32.0 33.0 2,723 3,456 3,201 CO : 68.5 54.7 21.3 21.6 1,301 1,459 1,182 ID : 210.0 195.0 24.3 27.9 5,501 5,103 5,441 MI : 190.0 175.0 18.6 19.5 2,768 3,534 3,413 MN : 470.0 434.0 20.1 20.4 9,710 9,447 8,854 MT : 61.7 57.9 23.8 23.9 1,410 1,468 1,384 NE : 66.2 58.7 19.0 20.5 934 1,258 1,203 ND : 247.0 231.0 20.8 22.0 5,386 5,138 5,082 OH : 1.7 0.7 19.5 18.0 19 33 13 OR : 19.7 14.2 25.1 27.5 471 494 391 WA : 27.4 27.2 30.1 33.4 1,192 825 908 WY : 57.1 57.0 21.1 21.0 1,084 1,205 1,197 : US : 1,527.3 1,402.4 21.9 23.0 32,499 33,420 32,269 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest except for overwintered spring planted beets in CA. Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- -------- 1,000 Tons -------- : FL : 460.0 454.0 35.0 35.2 17,925 16,100 15,975 HI : 37.3 35.4 79.4 77.0 2,798 2,960 2,726 LA : 465.0 490.0 32.7 31.0 12,920 15,206 15,190 TX : 31.0 46.6 33.3 37.5 1,064 1,033 1,749 : US : 993.3 1,026.0 35.5 34.7 34,707 35,299 35,640 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1998-99, 1999-00 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :---------------------------------------------------------- : 1998-99 : 1999-00 : 2000-01 : 1998-99 : 1999-00 :2000-01 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 550 600 550 21 22 21 CA 4/ : 21,000 40,000 34,000 787 1,500 1,275 FL : 112,000 134,000 135,000 5,040 6,030 6,075 TX : 1,250 1,540 1,800 53 66 77 US : 134,800 176,140 171,350 5,901 7,618 7,448 Valencia : AZ : 600 500 500 22 19 19 CA : 15,000 27,000 25,000 563 1,013 938 FL : 74,000 99,000 105,000 3,330 4,455 4,725 TX : 180 200 200 8 8 8 US : 89,780 126,700 130,700 3,923 5,495 5,690 All : AZ : 1,150 1,100 1,050 43 41 40 CA : 36,000 67,000 59,000 1,350 2,513 2,213 FL : 186,000 233,000 240,000 8,370 10,485 10,800 TX : 1,430 1,740 2,000 61 74 85 US : 224,580 302,840 302,050 9,824 13,113 13,138 Temples : FL : 1,800 1,950 1,800 81 88 81 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 17,800 20,900 20,000 757 888 850 Colored Seedless : FL : 28,700 31,900 30,000 1,220 1,356 1,275 Other 5/ : FL : 550 600 23 25 All : AZ : 750 500 600 25 17 20 CA : 7,300 7,000 7,200 244 235 241 FL : 47,050 53,400 50,000 2,000 2,269 2,125 TX : 6,100 5,930 6,500 244 237 260 US : 61,200 66,830 64,300 2,513 2,758 2,646 Tangerines : AZ 6/ : 950 850 850 36 32 32 CA 6/ : 1,500 2,300 2,000 56 86 75 FL : 4,950 7,000 6,300 235 333 299 US : 7,400 10,150 9,150 327 451 406 Lemons : AZ : 3,450 3,100 3,600 131 118 137 CA : 16,200 19,600 21,000 616 745 798 US : 19,650 22,700 24,600 747 863 935 Tangelos : FL : 2,550 2,200 2,100 115 99 95 K-Early Citrus : FL : 80 110 60 4 5 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimate for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5/ Seedy (Duncan) grapefruit estimates discontinued after 1999-00 crop. Included with White Seedless beginning with the 2000-01 crop. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds : AZ 2/ : 46.0 34.3 82.0 AR 2/ : 4.5 5.4 7.2 CA 2/ : 860.0 825.0 730.0 CO 2/ : 65.0 8.0 38.0 CT 2/ : 17.5 23.0 22.0 GA 2/ : 11.0 12.0 13.0 ID 2/ : 155.0 70.0 190.0 IL 2/ : 45.0 58.5 72.0 IN 2/ : 54.0 60.3 45.0 IA 2/ : 8.7 11.0 12.0 KS 2/ : 1.6 7.2 7.0 KY 2/ : 11.0 9.0 9.0 ME 2/ : 44.5 72.0 35.0 MD 2/ : 34.6 38.0 38.0 MA 2/ : 32.0 65.0 50.0 MI : 1,000.0 1,210.0 900.0 MN 2/ : 23.8 24.9 22.0 MO 2/ : 34.0 49.0 34.0 NH 2/ : 19.0 43.5 34.0 NJ 2/ : 55.0 50.0 55.0 NM 3/ : 8.0 2.0 NY : 1,070.0 1,260.0 1,020.0 NC : 185.0 190.0 190.0 OH 2/ : 80.0 100.0 90.0 OR 2/ : 180.0 150.0 175.0 PA : 395.0 505.0 480.0 RI 2/ : 2.6 3.6 2.8 SC 2/ : 45.0 32.0 23.1 TN 2/ : 12.5 9.5 9.0 UT 2/ : 45.0 9.0 45.0 VT 2/ : 35.0 60.0 50.0 VA : 280.0 360.0 340.0 WA : 6,600.0 5,000.0 5,700.0 WV : 110.0 145.0 90.0 WI 2/ : 76.1 77.4 67.0 : US : 11,646.4 10,579.6 10,677.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ No forecast made. Only end of year estimates made. Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds Improved Varieties 1/ : AL : 3,500 7,000 10,000 AZ : 13,000 22,800 17,000 AR : 300 1,500 900 CA : 1,700 1,900 2,300 FL : 200 1,100 800 GA : 35,000 85,000 70,000 LA : 3,000 4,000 3,000 MS : 800 3,500 1,000 NM : 32,000 52,000 35,000 NC : 1,500 800 1,800 OK : 200 3,000 1,000 SC : 800 1,800 1,700 TX : 20,000 35,000 22,000 : US : 112,000 219,400 166,500 : Native & Seedling : AL : 1,500 6,000 5,000 AR : 250 2,300 400 FL : 1,100 2,600 1,700 GA : 5,000 35,000 10,000 KS : 50 5,000 1,200 LA : 13,000 18,000 14,000 MS : 400 1,500 500 NC : 1,000 400 1,000 OK : 1,800 60,000 7,000 SC : 300 900 800 TX : 10,000 55,000 8,000 : US : 34,400 186,700 49,600 : All Pecans : AL : 5,000 13,000 15,000 AZ : 13,000 22,800 17,000 AR : 550 3,800 1,300 CA : 1,700 1,900 2,300 FL : 1,300 3,700 2,500 GA : 40,000 120,000 80,000 KS : 50 5,000 1,200 LA : 16,000 22,000 17,000 MS : 1,200 5,000 1,500 NM : 32,000 52,000 35,000 NC : 2,500 1,200 2,800 OK : 2,000 63,000 8,000 SC : 1,100 2,700 2,500 TX : 30,000 90,000 30,000 : US : 146,400 406,100 216,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. Hazelnuts: Utilized Production, In-shell Basis, by State and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : OR : 15,400 39,700 24,800 WA : 100 300 200 : US : 15,500 40,000 25,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1998-99 and Forecasted October 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :-------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : AZ 1/ : 23,000 21,000 18,000 AR 1/ : 4,550 4,900 4,900 CA : All Types : 5,290,000 5,536,000 6,850,000 Wine 1/ : 2,570,000 2,662,000 3,200,000 Table 1/ : 643,000 757,000 800,000 Raisin 2/ : 2,077,000 2,117,000 2,850,000 GA 1/ : 3,200 3,300 3,400 MI : 70,400 75,000 84,000 MO 1/ : 2,200 2,800 2,800 NY : 128,000 205,000 165,000 NC 1/ : 1,500 1,900 2,000 OH 1/ : 6,100 9,200 7,500 OR 1/ : 14,700 17,900 19,000 PA : 54,000 88,000 60,000 SC 1/ : 300 360 480 WA : All Types : 222,000 265,000 270,000 Wine : 70,000 70,000 90,000 Juice : 152,000 195,000 180,000 : US : 5,819,950 6,230,360 7,487,080 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Fresh basis. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Aug : 3,515 2,800 2,025 1,625 3,315 4,035 Sep : 3,245 2,755 1,615 1,610 3,480 3,640 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn for Grain: Ears Per Acre The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 7 major corn producing States during 2000. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual field counts from this survey. Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre, Selected States, 1996-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Month: 1996 : 1997 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Oct : 23,700 23,500 24,300 24,950 25,450 : Nov : 23,600 23,400 24,300 24,850 : : IN : Oct : 22,750 22,150 23,450 23,950 24,550 : Nov : 22,700 22,150 23,350 23,900 : : IA : Oct : 24,350 24,600 24,250 25,300 25,600 : Nov : 24,250 24,550 24,300 25,300 : : MN : Oct : 26,400 26,150 27,550 26,700 27,350 : Nov : 26,450 25,900 27,550 26,650 : : NE : Oct : 22,600 21,900 22,500 22,650 22,750 : Nov : 22,550 21,900 22,500 22,600 : : OH : Oct : 22,300 22,500 24,800 24,100 24,250 : Nov : 22,000 22,300 25,000 24,050 : : WI : Oct : 24,250 24,350 24,950 25,700 25,500 : Nov : 24,650 24,300 24,850 25,700 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1999-2000 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,194.0 5,844.0 4,734.0 5,211.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 77,431.0 79,579.0 70,537.0 73,009.0 Corn for Silage : 6,062.0 Hay, All : 63,160.0 61,591.0 Alfalfa : 23,985.0 23,317.0 All Other : 39,175.0 38,274.0 Oats : 4,673.0 4,477.0 2,453.0 2,334.0 Proso Millet : 600.0 450.0 540.0 Rice : 3,531.0 3,110.0 3,512.0 3,085.0 Rye : 1,582.0 1,335.0 383.0 302.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,288.0 9,005.0 8,544.0 7,665.0 Sorghum for Silage : 320.0 Wheat, All : 62,714.0 62,529.0 53,823.0 53,228.0 Winter : 43,331.0 43,348.0 35,486.0 35,022.0 Durum : 4,035.0 3,937.0 3,569.0 3,672.0 Other Spring : 15,348.0 15,244.0 14,768.0 14,534.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,076.0 1,481.0 1,044.0 1,459.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 387.0 593.0 382.0 575.0 Mustard Seed : 60.8 54.0 58.8 52.4 Peanuts : 1,534.5 1,495.0 1,436.0 1,395.5 Rapeseed : 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 Safflower : 275.0 224.0 262.0 209.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,730.0 74,501.0 72,446.0 73,024.0 Sunflower : 3,553.0 2,866.0 3,441.0 2,775.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 14,873.5 15,532.0 13,424.9 13,544.0 Upland : 14,584.0 15,350.0 13,138.0 13,372.0 Amer-Pima : 289.5 182.0 286.9 172.0 Sugarbeets : 1,560.6 1,560.9 1,527.3 1,402.4 Sugarcane : 993.3 1,026.0 Tobacco : 647.2 492.3 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 6.1 4.4 Dry Edible Beans : 2,023.0 1,740.9 1,877.0 1,579.4 Dry Edible Peas : 281.6 263.6 Lentils : 182.0 174.5 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.4 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.4 0.3 Hops : 34.3 36.4 Peppermint Oil : 106.3 Potatoes, All : 1,376.8 1,388.0 1,332.4 1,359.3 Winter : 18.1 17.2 17.8 17.0 Spring : 86.8 82.1 84.5 80.1 Summer : 68.9 64.8 64.0 62.3 Fall : 1,203.0 1,223.9 1,166.1 1,199.9 Spearmint Oil : 24.4 Sweet Potatoes : 93.8 96.1 83.1 93.3 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1999-2000 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 59.2 61.4 280,292 320,195 Corn for Grain : " : 133.8 139.6 9,437,337 10,191,817 Corn for Silage : Ton : 15.9 96,169 Hay, All : " : 2.52 2.48 159,077 152,651 Alfalfa : " : 3.50 3.43 83,924 79,971 All Other : " : 1.92 1.90 75,153 72,680 Oats : Bu : 59.6 64.4 146,193 150,300 Proso Millet : " : 33.2 17,910 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 5,866 6,230 206,027 192,186 Rye : Bu : 28.8 28.5 11,038 8,619 Sorghum for Grain : " : 69.7 60.7 595,166 465,348 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 11.6 3,716 Wheat, All : Bu : 42.7 42.1 2,299,010 2,239,240 Winter : " : 47.8 44.6 1,696,580 1,562,733 Durum : " : 27.8 31.5 99,322 115,505 Other Spring : " : 34.1 38.6 503,108 561,002 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,306 1,313 1,363,680 1,915,825 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,354 6,552 Flaxseed : Bu : 20.6 7,880 Mustard Seed : Lb : 816 48,010 Peanuts : " : 2,667 2,486 3,829,490 3,469,650 Rapeseed : " : 1,155 5,080 Safflower : " : 1,545 404,715 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 36.6 38.7 2,653,758 2,822,821 Sunflower : Lb : 1,262 1,338 4,341,862 3,712,457 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 607 620 16,968.0 17,485.1 Upland 2/ : " : 595 613 16,293.7 17,079.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,128 1,133 674.3 406.1 Sugarbeets : Ton : 21.9 23.0 33,420 32,269 Sugarcane : " : 35.5 34.7 35,299 35,640 Tobacco : Lb : 1,997 2,284 1,292,692 1,124,463 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,364 60 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,770 1,621 33,230 25,603 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,908 5,030 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,368 2,387 Wrinkled Seed Peas : " : 658 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,560 10,000 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 46,000 50,000 16,100 13,500 Hops : " : 1,881 1,876 64,456 68,288 Peppermint Oil : " : 71 7,537 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 359 478,216 Winter : " : 229 292 4,070 4,960 Spring : " : 300 281 25,327 22,486 Summer : " : 296 297 18,972 18,504 Fall : " : 369 429,847 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 101 2,454 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 147 12,234 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1999-2001 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,513 2,758 2,646 K-Early Citrus (FL) : " : 4 5 3 Lemons : " : 747 863 935 Oranges : " : 9,824 13,113 13,138 Tangelos (FL) : " : 115 99 95 Tangerines : " : 327 451 406 Temples (FL) : " : 81 88 81 : : Non-Citrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 10,579.6 10,677.1 Apricots : Ton : 90.5 101.9 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 24,500.0 Grapes : Ton : 6,230.4 7,487.1 Olives (CA) : " : 145.0 75.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 42,400.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,525.4 2,677.1 Pears : Ton : 1,020.5 1,001.1 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 178.0 200.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 23.3 21.7 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 830,000 640,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 40.0 25.0 Pecans : Lb : 406,100 216,100 Pistachios 3/ : " : 123,000 207,600 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 283.0 245.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,188 1,231 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 1998-99, 1999-00, and 2000-01. 3/ AZ added to estimating program in 2000. Prior to 2000, estimates are for CA only. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 1999-2000 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,101,960 2,365,010 1,915,800 2,108,840 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,335,550 32,204,830 28,545,620 29,546,010 Corn for Silage : 2,453,230 Hay, All 3/ : 25,560,220 24,925,260 Alfalfa : 9,706,490 9,436,160 All Other : 15,853,730 15,489,110 Oats : 1,891,120 1,811,800 992,700 944,550 Proso Millet : 242,810 182,110 218,530 Rice : 1,428,960 1,258,590 1,421,270 1,248,470 Rye : 640,220 540,260 155,000 122,220 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,758,760 3,644,230 3,457,670 3,101,950 Sorghum for Silage : 129,500 Wheat, All 3/ :25,379,730 25,304,860 21,781,630 21,540,840 Winter :17,535,620 17,542,500 14,360,830 14,173,050 Durum : 1,632,920 1,593,260 1,444,340 1,486,020 Other Spring : 6,211,180 6,169,090 5,976,460 5,881,760 : Oilseeds : Canola : 435,450 599,350 422,500 590,440 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 156,620 239,980 154,590 232,700 Mustard Seed : 24,610 21,850 23,800 21,210 Peanuts : 621,000 605,010 581,130 564,740 Rapeseed : 1,860 1,820 1,780 1,780 Safflower : 111,290 90,650 106,030 84,580 Soybeans for Beans :29,837,790 30,149,810 29,318,170 29,552,080 Sunflower : 1,437,860 1,159,840 1,392,540 1,123,010 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 6,019,160 6,285,650 5,432,920 5,481,120 Upland : 5,902,000 6,211,990 5,316,820 5,411,510 Amer-Pima : 117,160 73,650 116,110 69,610 Sugarbeets : 631,560 631,680 618,080 567,540 Sugarcane : 401,980 415,210 Tobacco : 261,900 199,210 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 2,470 1,780 Dry Edible Beans : 818,690 704,520 759,600 639,170 Dry Edible Peas : 113,960 106,680 Lentils : 73,650 70,620 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,590 Ginger Root (HI) : 140 110 Hops : 13,860 14,730 Peppermint Oil : 43,020 Potatoes, All 3/ : 557,180 561,710 539,210 550,100 Winter : 7,320 6,960 7,200 6,880 Spring : 35,130 33,230 34,200 32,420 Summer : 27,880 26,220 25,900 25,210 Fall : 486,840 495,300 471,910 485,590 Spearmint Oil : 9,870 Sweet Potatoes : 37,960 38,890 33,630 37,760 Taro (HI) 4/ : 200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 1999-2000 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.19 3.31 6,102,640 6,971,420 Corn for Grain : 8.40 8.76 239,719,400 258,884,080 Corn for Silage : 35.56 87,243,050 Hay, All 2/ : 5.65 5.56 144,312,230 138,482,660 Alfalfa : 7.84 7.69 76,134,570 72,548,470 All Other : 4.30 4.26 68,177,650 65,934,190 Oats : 2.14 2.31 2,121,990 2,181,600 Proso Millet : 1.86 406,190 Rice : 6.58 6.98 9,345,230 8,717,410 Rye : 1.81 1.79 280,380 218,930 Sorghum for Grain : 4.37 3.81 15,117,910 11,820,380 Sorghum for Silage : 26.03 3,371,100 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.87 2.83 62,568,800 60,942,130 Winter : 3.22 3.00 46,173,340 42,530,620 Durum : 1.87 2.12 2,703,100 3,143,530 Other Spring : 2.29 2.60 13,692,360 15,267,970 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.46 1.47 618,550 869,000 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,763,800 5,944,150 Flaxseed : 1.29 200,160 Mustard Seed : 0.92 21,780 Peanuts : 2.99 2.79 1,737,030 1,573,810 Rapeseed : 1.29 2,300 Safflower : 1.73 183,580 Soybeans for Beans : 2.46 2.60 72,223,460 76,824,600 Sunflower : 1.41 1.50 1,969,440 1,683,940 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.68 0.69 3,694,350 3,806,930 Upland : 0.67 0.69 3,547,540 3,718,510 Amer-Pima : 1.26 1.27 146,810 88,420 Sugarbeets : 49.05 51.58 30,318,110 29,273,940 Sugarcane : 79.66 77.87 32,022,710 32,332,060 Tobacco : 2.24 2.56 586,360 510,050 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.53 2,720 Dry Edible Beans : 1.98 1.82 1,507,290 1,161,330 Dry Edible Peas : 2.14 228,160 Lentils : 1.53 108,270 Wrinkled Seed Peas : 29,850 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.75 4,540 Ginger Root (HI) : 51.56 56.04 7,300 6,120 Hops : 2.11 2.10 29,240 30,980 Peppermint Oil : 0.08 3,420 Potatoes, All 2/ : 40.23 21,691,510 Winter : 25.63 32.70 184,610 224,980 Spring : 33.59 31.46 1,148,810 1,019,950 Summer : 33.23 33.29 860,560 839,330 Fall : 41.32 19,497,530 Spearmint Oil : 0.11 1,110 Sweet Potatoes : 16.50 554,920 Taro (HI) 3/ : 3,080 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2000 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1999-2001 (Metric Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,279,760 2,502,020 2,400,410 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 3,630 4,540 2,720 Lemons : 677,670 782,900 848,220 Oranges : 8,912,180 11,895,910 11,918,590 Tangelos (FL) : 104,330 89,810 86,180 Tangerines : 296,650 409,140 368,320 Temples (FL) : 73,480 79,830 73,480 : Non-Citrus : Apples : 4,798,830 4,843,050 Apricots : 82,100 92,440 Bananas (HI) : 11,110 Grapes : 5,652,090 6,792,160 Olives (CA) : 131,540 68,040 Papayas (HI) : 19,230 Peaches : 1,145,500 1,214,310 Pears : 925,740 908,180 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 161,480 181,440 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 21,140 19,690 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 376,480 290,300 Hazelnuts : 36,290 22,680 Pecans : 184,200 98,020 Pistachios 3/ : 55,790 94,170 Walnuts (CA) : 256,730 222,260 Maple Syrup : 5,940 6,150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 1998-99, 1999-00, and 2000-01. 3/ AZ added to estimating program in 2000. Prior to 2000, estimates are for CA only. September Weather Summary Large temperature fluctuations followed an early-month heat wave across the central one-third of the Nation. Although much-needed precipitation (rain and snow) arrived on the northern and central High Plains after mid-month, the remainder of the Plains saw further drought intensification. Toward month's end, renewed heat and persistent dryness hampered winter wheat planting and emergence across the southern half of the Plains. Drought also remained a concern across the South, especially from Alabama westward, although warm, often dry weather favored summer crop maturation and harvesting. Farther east, however, peanuts, cotton, and other summer crops in the southern Atlantic States were soaked by frequent rainfall that slowed fieldwork but eased long-term drought. Tropical Storms Gordon and Helene made landfall in Florida just 5 days apart, contributing to the Southeast's wet pattern. Significant rain also fell from the eastern Corn Belt to the Mid-Atlantic region, continuing a trend that developed last spring. In the West, dry weather prevailed in the southern half of the region, while unusually heavy precipitation aided fall-sown small grains in the interior Northwest. Monthly temperatures averaged up to 5 degrees F above normal in the Plains and Southwest, despite periodic cool spells after mid-month. The early-month heat wave was noteworthy for its intensity and lateness in the year, setting more than a dozen all-time-record highs and shattering September records throughout the South-Central States. Elsewhere, monthly readings averaged as much as 3 degrees F below normal in the interior Northwest and as much as 4 degrees F below normal in the Mid-Atlantic region. The season's first freeze was approximately on schedule in the northern Plains and northwestern Corn Belt, but arrived as much as 1 to 2 weeks early in the interior Northwest, central High Plains, and parts of the Northeast. However, most of the sub-freezing temperatures bypassed the northern Corn Belt, one of the few areas with a significant quantity of immature summer crops. September Agricultural Summary Above-normal temperatures ripened row crops well ahead of normal in the Great Plains and western Corn Belt through the first half of the month. After mid- -month, a brief period of freezing temperatures halted plant development and hastened ripening in the northern Great Plains and northern Corn Belt. In the eastern Corn Belt, above-normal temperatures prevailed early in the month, but cool weather hindered crop development through the remainder of the month. Along the Atlantic Coastal Plains, cool, wet weather hindered crop development and delayed harvest progress most of the month. Rain eased moisture shortages along the Gulf Coast, but drought conditions remained in parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, interior Southeast, and across most of the Great Plains. The fall harvest season began early and rapidly progressed in the western Corn Belt and adjacent parts of the Great Plains. Below-normal temperatures delayed crop development in the Pacific Coast States until mid-month, but above-normal temperatures accelerated ripening and aided harvest after mid-month. The Nation's corn crop ripened ahead of last year's rapid pace and about 1 week ahead of the 5-year average. Fields quickly ripened in the central Great Plains and most of the Corn Belt, but development was slow in Michigan and Wisconsin due to below-normal temperatures. During the week ended September 10, thirty-three percent of the crop had reached maturity in Nebraska and more than 20 percent had ripened in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri. By September 17, nearly the entire crop was dented and two-thirds was mature. The season's first freezing temperatures shut down plant development in the northern Great Plains and adjacent parts of the Corn Belt after mid-month. Despite the cold weather, more than 30 percent of the acreage reached maturity in Minnesota, South Dakota, and parts of Wisconsin during the week ended September 24. Fields rapidly matured in Colorado and in the eastern Corn Belt late in the month, despite below-normal temperatures. In Michigan, development accelerated after mid-month, but ripening lagged far behind normal. Development also lagged in Pennsylvania. Nationally, 92 percent of the crop was mature on October 1. The harvest season began early and progressed well ahead of normal throughout the month. On October 1, harvest was 37 percent complete, more than double the 18-percent average. Progress was most advanced in Kansas, Tennessee, and Texas, where nearly 90 percent of the crop was harvested. More than three-fourths of the crop was harvested in Missouri, almost double the normal rate. In Nebraska, more than half of the acreage was harvested, far ahead of the 11-percent average. Rain limited progress along the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coastal Plains. Progress lagged in the Great Lakes region due to slow ripening. Triple-digit heat quickly ripened maturing soybean fields in the Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and adjacent areas of the Corn Belt early in the month. Above-normal temperatures also promoted rapid development in the northern and eastern Corn Belt. Fields rapidly matured in Iowa, Minnesota, and North and South Dakota during the week ended September 17, as more than 40 percent of the acreage began dropping leaves. Meanwhile, 35 percent of the acreage began shedding leaves in Nebraska and about one-fourth of the acreage began dropping leaves in the southern and eastern Corn Belt. Ripening accelerated in Michigan, but progress remained well behind normal. Widespread frosts during the week ended September 24 hastened ripening in the northern Great Plains, but crop damage was limited because nearly all of the acreage was shedding leaves. By October 1, ninety percent of the acreage was dropping leaves, slightly ahead of last year and more than 1 week ahead of normal. Harvest accelerated in the western Corn Belt and Great Plains before mid-month, but rain limited progress in the eastern Corn Belt, where early harvest season progress lagged slightly behind normal. Harvest rapidly advanced to 37 percent complete on October 1, ahead of last year and about 1 week ahead of the 5-year average. In Minnesota, the harvest advanced nearly 40 percentage points during the last week of the month and was far ahead of normal. In Iowa and the Dakota's, growers harvested more than one-fourth of the crop during the week ended October 1. Harvest progress slowed in Kansas late in the month, but remained far ahead of normal. The harvest pace slowly gained momentum in Michigan and Ohio, but progress lagged behind normal in both States at the end of the month. Late-month rains hindered harvest progress in Illinois and Indiana. Cotton fields ripened ahead of normal, as hot weather prevailed most of the month in the Mississippi Delta and Great Plains. Cool weather and excessive cloud cover limited development along the Atlantic Coastal Plains, especially in Virginia, where fields ripened far behind the 5-year average. Below-normal temperatures hindered development in the Southwest early in the month, but above-normal temperatures promoted rapid development the remainder of the month. On October 1, bolls were opening on 90 percent of the acreage, 4 percentage points ahead of last year and more than 1 week ahead of the 5-year average. When the month ended, bolls were opening in nearly all fields in the Mississippi Delta and progress remained far ahead of normal in the southern Great Plains. Harvest accelerated in Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley early in the month and gained momentum in the Southeast during the week ended September 17. Rain delays were mostly limited to areas near the Gulf Coast. When the month ended, about one-third of the crop was picked, ahead of last year's pace and 1 week ahead of the 5-year average. On September 10, the spring wheat and barley crops were 93 and 96 percent harvested, respectively, more than one week ahead of the 5-year average and about 2 weeks ahead of last year's slow pace. Dry weather aided efforts to finish the harvest. Growers in Idaho harvested 11 percent of their spring wheat and 14 percent of their barley during the week ended September 10. Seedbed preparation and winter wheat seeding were hampered by hard dry soils across most of the Great Plains. However, planting was active on the sandy soils of the central High Plains, despite inadequate moisture supplies. In Colorado, soaking rains improved topsoil moisture supplies and aided emergence, which advanced to 30 percent by September 24. Planting accelerated in parts of the Great Plains where late-month rains softened soils and increased moisture supplies. Planting also accelerated in the northern Great Plains, but progress was far behind normal in South Dakota and Montana at the end of the month. Planting lagged behind normal in the Corn Belt and along the Atlantic Coastal Plains, but advanced ahead of normal in California and Oregon. On October 1, thirty-four percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was planted, well behind last year's fast pace and about 1 week behind the 5-year average. Twelve percent was emerged on October 1, compared with 24 percent last year and 10 percentage points behind the 5-year average. The rice harvest progressed slightly behind last year's pace, but slightly ahead of the average. Progress remained active along the western Gulf Coast early in the month and gained momentum in the interior Mississippi Delta. Mid-month rains delayed completion of the harvest in Texas and Louisiana, but provided much-needed moisture for ratooned rice fields. Dry weather aided harvest efforts in Arkansas and Mississippi during the first half of the month, and progress accelerated after mid-month, despite periodic rain delays. However, progress remained well behind normal in Mississippi. By October 1, 75 percent of the crop was harvested, and was complete along the western Gulf Coast. The harvest pace was slow in California, but progress remained slightly ahead of normal. Hot weather accelerated sorghum development in the Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley until late in the month. Fields ripened about 2 weeks ahead of last year and the average, while harvest progressed 2 weeks ahead of last year and more than 3 weeks ahead of the average. By October 1, ninety-two percent of the sorghum acreage was mature, and 73 percent was harvested. The peanut harvest lagged in the Southeast, but progressed ahead of normal in the southern Great Plains. Hard, dry soils hindered digging in Alabama and Georgia, while wet weather hampered progress along the mid-Atlantic coast. On October 1, just over one-fourth of the peanuts were harvested. Corn for grain: Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 73.0 million acres, down 50,000 acres from last month, but up 4 percent from 1999. Farmers in Colorado switched corn from grain to silage or abandoned acres completely due to continued dry weather. The October 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate a record level ear count for the combined seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The previous record ears per acre was set in 1999. As of October 1, ninety-two percent of the crop was mature in the 18 major corn-producing States. This compares with 91 percent last year and 81 percent for the 5-year average. Thirty-seven percent of the acreage was harvested compared with 26 percent the previous year and the average of 18 percent. Fields quickly ripened in the central Great Plains and most of the Corn Belt, but development was slow in Michigan and Wisconsin due to abnormally cool weather. The season's first freezing temperatures shut down plant development in the northern Great Plains and adjacent parts of the Corn Belt after mid-month. However, little damage occurred due to the advanced maturity of the corn crop. In Michigan, development accelerated after mid-month, but ripening lagged far behind normal. Development also lagged in Pennsylvania. Progress was most advanced in Kansas, Tennessee, and Texas, where nearly 90 percent of the crop was harvested as the month ended. More than three-fourths of the crop was harvested in Missouri, almost double the normal rate. In Nebraska, more than half of the acreage was harvested, far ahead of the October 1 average of 11 percent. In Iowa, forecasted ear counts are the highest on record. The corn crop was mature as of October 1, equal to 1999's pace, but ahead of the average of 89 percent. Thirty-eight percent of the crop was harvested, ahead of 15 percent last year and the average of 10 percent. Forecasted ear counts are at a record high for Illinois when compared to final levels. Ninety-nine percent of the corn was mature, compared to 97 percent last year and 83 percent for the average. Forty-four percent of the crop was harvested, compared with 39 percent in 1999 and the average of 21 percent. In Nebraska and Indiana, forecasted ear counts are also at record high levels. Ninety-nine percent of the crop was mature in Nebraska, ahead of both last year and the average. Ninety-four percent of Indiana's corn acreage was mature, behind 1999, but ahead of the average. Fifty-two percent of the Nebraska acreage was harvested, well ahead of 15 percent for last year and the average of 11 percent. In Indiana, 22 percent of the corn was harvested, behind 1999, but ahead of the average of 17 percent. Forecasted ear counts in Minnesota and Ohio are the second highest on record behind 1998. Ninety-eight percent of the corn in Minnesota was mature, compared with 90 percent in 1999 and the average of 81 percent. In Ohio, 67 percent of the corn was mature, behind 89 percent in last year, but ahead of the average of 58 percent. Twelve percent of the Minnesota acreage was harvested, ahead of both last year and the average, while 6 percent of Ohio's crop was harvested, behind both last year and the average. Wisconsin objective yield data indicate the second highest ear count on record behind 1999. Sixty-nine percent of the corn acreage was mature by October 1, compared with 88 percent a year ago and the average of 68 percent. Seven percent of the crop was harvested, behind 14 percent in 1999 and slightly behind the average of 9 percent. Sorghum for Grain: Production is forecast at 465 million bushels, 10 percent lower than the September forecast and 22 percent below the 1999 total. Area harvested and to be harvested was down 8 percent from September at 7.67 million acres, and down 10 percent from the previous year. Total harvested acres is down 650 thousand acres from September. The U.S. yield is forecast at 60.7 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushels from last month and 9.0 bushels below 1999. Five of the 11 October estimating States lowered yields from the September forecast. Oklahoma showed the largest decrease from September, down 6 bushels per acre. Both Illinois and Louisiana were up 2 bushels and reported record yields. The remaining States reported no change. Drought conditions in the southwestern sorghum States lead to reductions in both harvested acreage and yield. Warm weather in the northern Plains and the Corn Belt helped promote the growth and development of the U.S. sorghum crop. As of October 1, ninety-two percent of the crop was mature in the top 11 producing States, 23 points ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest, at 73 percent complete, was 37 points ahead of the 5-year average. Rice: Production is forecast at 192 million cwt, up slightly from September 1, but 7 percent below 1999. Area for harvest is expected to total 3.09 million acres, unchanged from September 1, but down 12 percent from 1999. Yields are expected to average 6,230 pounds per acre, up 364 pounds from the 1999 yield. If realized, this would be a record yield. The previous record yield was set in 1996 when the yield averaged 6,120 pounds per acre. This is also the third highest production following last year's record of 206 million cwt. As of October 1, Arkansas harvest was 77 percent complete, behind last year, but slightly ahead of the 5-year average. California harvest was 1 point ahead of average. Harvest in Louisiana and Texas was complete as of October 1. Soybeans: Growers expect to harvest 73.0 million acres of soybeans, up 1 percent from 1999, but down 1 percent from the September forecast. Acres expected for harvest were decreased by 450,000 acres in eight States due to abandonment or harvested for hay. Downward adjustments to harvested acres were made in Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. As of October 1, the percent of the soybeans dropping leaves had reached 90 percent, 4 percentage points ahead of 1999, and more than one week ahead of normal. Crop maturity was most advanced in Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota, where 98 percent or more of the crop had already dropped leaves. If realized, pod counts from the October Objective Yield survey will be the highest on record in Arkansas, Illinois, and Indiana. In Missouri and Ohio, pod counts were higher than 1999 while counts in Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska were lower than 1999 final counts. Despite some delays caused by rain, soybean harvest was progressing well ahead of normal as of October 1, with 37 percent of the acreage harvested, 10 percentage points ahead of last year, and 16 percentage points ahead of normal progress. Harvest was over 50 percent complete in Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, and Mississippi and over 40 percent complete in Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Sunflower: The first sunflower production forecast for 2000 is 3.71 billion pounds, down 14 percent from 1999 and 30 percent below 1998. Sunflower growers expect to harvest 2.78 million acres, a decrease of 19 percent from 1999. The October yield forecast, at 1,338 pounds, is 76 pounds higher than the final 1999 yield. Higher yields are expected in 4 of the 7 major sunflower producing states. As of October 1, growers in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Texas are expecting higher yields this year. Yields in Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska are expected to be lower. In North Dakota, the yield is forecast at 1,400 pounds per acre, up 266 pounds above 1999. In North Dakota sunflower harvest was just beginning and was 4 percent complete on October 1. Harvest progress in South Dakota and Minnesota was 31 percent and 5 percent complete, respectively. Canola: The first Canola production forecast for 2000 is 1.92 billion pounds, up 40 percent from 1999. If realized, this would be the largest production on record. Harvested area is forecast at 1.46 million acres, up 40 percent from a year ago but unchanged from June. The October yield forecast at 1,313 pounds, is only slightly above the final 1999 yield. In North Dakota, the yield is forecast at 1,300 pounds, unchanged from 1999. The Minnesota yield is forecast at 1,360 pounds, 60 pounds above 1999. Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.47 billion pounds, down 8 percent from September 1 and 9 percent below last year's crop. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.40 million acres, down 5 percent from the September report, and 3 percent below 1999. Hot, dry weather lead to increased acreage abandonment in Texas and Alabama by 68,000 and 2,000 acres, respectively. Yields are expected to average 2,486 pounds, 75 pounds below last month and down 181 pounds from 1999. Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total 1.82 billion pounds, up 3 percent from last month, but down 15 percent from last year's level. Yield in the four-State area are expected to average 2,291 pounds per acre, up 78 pounds from September 1, but down 206 pounds from 1999. Yield prospects in Georgia, Flordia, and South Carolina were up from last month while Alabama were unchanged. Eighty-seven percent of Alabama's crop was rated in very poor to poor condition in early October. As of October 1, harvest was 15 points behind the 5-year average. Georgia's acreage was rated 70 percent fair to good. Harvest was 22 points behind the 5-year average in early October. The Flordia crop was rated 100 percent fair to good. Harvest was 24 points behind last year. The Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 594 million pounds, down 1 percent from September 1, but up 15 percent from 1999. Yield is expected to average 2,969 pounds, 31 pounds below last month, but up 384 pounds from last year. Eighty-eight percent of the North Carolina crop was rated in fair to good condition in early October. Harvest in North Carolina was 9 percent complete, 3 points behind average. In Virginia, 81 percent of the crop was rated in fair to good condition. Harvest was 11 points ahead of average. The Southwest crop production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 1.06 billion pounds, down 24 percent from last month, and down 10 percent from 1999. Yields are expected to average 2,632 pounds, 460 pounds below 1999. The tri-state area crop condition was rated mostly fair to good. The Oklahoma harvest was 9 percentage points ahead of average, with 17 percent harvested. Texas acreage is 29 percent harvested compared with 16 percent for the average. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.4 million acres, is 2 percent above 1999. Acreage in Missouri was decreased 25,000 acres from September 1, while Texas and Oklahoma decreased 500,000 and 50,000 acres, respectively, from September 1 levels. Dry weather and above-normal temperatures continue to stress the crop and lead to increased abandonment. American-Pima harvested acreage, at 172,000 acres, is down 4,000 acres from last month. In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia), the condition of the cotton crop remained mostly steady throughout the month of September. On October 1, Alabama rated 45 percent of it's cotton acreage fair to excellent. This was 10 points higher than the rating one month earlier. Georgia and South Carolina both reported an increase of two points in the condition rating during the month of September. On October 1, Georgia rated 67 percent of it's crop as fair to excellent condition, while South Carolina rated 90 percent in these categories. North Carolina reported a slight decrease in condition with 95 percent rated fair to excellent, 3 points below the rating on September 3. Harvest began in most parts of the Southeast during the middle of September. However, rains from two tropical storms delayed progress during the second half of the month. On October 1, Georgia reported 10 percent of it's cotton acreage harvested, 7 points behind the 5-year average. North Carolina reported 3 percent harvested as of October 1, five points behind average. South Carolina reported 11 percent harvested on this same date, 4 points below the 5-year average. Alabama experienced hot, dry temperatures during the season which led to rapid maturation of the cotton crop and is therefore reporting harvest ahead of the 5-year average. Twenty-seven percent of Alabama's cotton acreage was harvested as of October 1, four points ahead of average. Development continues to lag in Virginia, due to persistent below normal temperatures. The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) continued to experience high temperatures and a quickly maturing crop. The extreme temperatures continued to cause deterioration. On October 1, Louisiana rated 45 percent of it's cotton acreage in fair to excellent condition, 7 points below the rating on September 3. Similarly, Missouri rated 87 percent fair to excellent, 7 points below last month's rating. Arkansas and Tennessee also reported slight declines in condition during the past month. Arkansas' rating is 3 points below the September 3 rating, while Tennessee reported a 2 point decline in the amount of cotton acreage reported in fair to excellent condition. Mississippi's condition is unchanged from one month earlier, despite a slight improvement reported during the first half of September. While conditions continued to deteriorate, the rapid development of the crop allowed harvest to progress ahead of average. As of October 1, Arkansas reported 34 percent of it's cotton acreage harvested, 13 points ahead of the 5-year average. Mississippi and Louisiana reported 63 and 74 percent of their acreage harvested on October 1, twenty-five and 30 points, respectively, ahead of the 5-year average. Tennessee and Missouri's percent of acreage harvested were 18 and 19 points, respectively, ahead of average. Objective yield data show large-boll counts in Arkansas to be the sixth lowest in the past 10 years. Louisiana and Mississippi's large-boll counts rank fifth and eighth, respectively, since 1991. Producers in the Southwestern States (Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) continue to battle extremely dry weather. Early maturity in dryland cotton was being reached across the Plains. As of October 1, eighty-nine percent of Texas' upland cotton acreage had bolls opening. This is 20 points ahead of the 5-year average. Oklahoma acreage was 34 points ahead of average, with 93 percent having open bolls. Boll drop continued throughout the Plains as some growers waited for a frost to prevent further expense from defoliants. As of October 1, Oklahoma rated 54 percent of the cotton acreage as fair to excellent condition, compared to 70 percent on September 3. Texas rated 51 percent of it's acreage in these categories, 11 points below the August 30 rating. Data from the objective yield survey show Texas' crop has the ninth smallest count of large-bolls since 1991. Progress of upland cotton in California and Arizona has been aided by above-average temperatures. On October 1, California reported that 87 percent of the upland cotton had bolls opening, equal to the 5-year average. Arizona reported virtually all of their upland cotton had open bolls by October 1. Irrigation alleviated any concerns associated with the hot temperatures. On October 1, California rated 100 percent of their upland acreage as fair to excellent. Arizona rated 97 percent of their acreage as fair to excellent. Both States ratings are unchanged from last month. Data from the objective yield plots indicate California's count of large-bolls rank fifth and boll weights rank ninth since 1991. American-Pima production is forecast at 406,100 bales, down 40 percent from last year's output, and down 5,000 bales from September. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,133 pounds per harvested acre, up 5 pounds from 1999. The yield is 12 pounds per harvested acre above the September 1 forecast. The increase in yield resulted from additional abandonment, as Texas reduced harvested acreage to 16,000. This is 4,000 acres below the September 1 estimate. Arizona, California, and New Mexico's forecasts are unchanged from last month. California's American-Pima cotton continues to progress well, despite cool weather in late August. Ginnings totaled 3,264,200 running bales prior to October 1, compared with 2,689,850 running bales ginned prior to the same date last year and 2,056,400 running bales in 1998. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: U.S. production is forecast at 80.0 million tons, up 1 percent from August, but 5 percent below 1999. Yields are expected to average 3.43 tons per acre, up 0.11 tons from August, but down 0.07 tons from 1999. Harvested area is 23.3 million acres, down 2 percent from August, and down 3 percent from 1999 Record yields in eleven Midwest and Eastern States are offset by drought conditions in the West. Drought conditions have reduced yield in the Southern Plains where Kansas has reported a 0.40 ton reduction from the August forecast. Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Montana, and Oregon have also reported reduced yields. Montana alfalfa acreage is down 450 thousand acres. Eastern States continue their recovery from last year's drought. Other Hay: Production is forecast at 72.7 million tons, 3 percent below last year's record production of 75.2 million tons. Yields are expected to average 1.90 tons per acre, slightly below the August forecast of 1.94 tons and last year's yield of 1.92 tons. Harvested area is estimated at 38.3 million acres, down less than 1 percent from the August forecast, and down 2 percent from the 39.2 million acres harvested in 1999. This year's acreage will be the second highest since 1962. Eleven States, mostly in the east, are reporting record yields as they continue to recover from last year's drought. Spotty drought conditions in the West have reduced some yields, and Montana has reduced it's acreage by 150 thousand acres. However, Idaho and Nebraska are reporting record yields. Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production for 2000 is forecast at 25.6 million cwt, down 1 percent from the August 1 forecast and 23 percent below last year. The average yield of 1,621 pounds per acre is down 9 pounds from the previous forecast and 149 pounds below 1999. Average yields are at or below 1999 levels for all States except for California, New York, Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. Area for harvest is forecast at 1.58 million acres, virtually unchanged from August 1, but 16 percent below last year. In North Dakota harvest was behind the average pace at the beginning of September due to wet conditions, however, mostly dry weather for the rest of the month allowed for an average harvest pace. As of October 1, seventy-six percent of the crop was combined, compared to 61 percent combined at this time last year and 79 percent on average. Michigan's dry bean acreage had above normal soil moisture levels with some damage from excessive rains. On October 1, thirty-nine percent of the crop has been harvested, compared to 92 percent harvested at this time last year and 73 percent on average. Michigan's dry bean crop condition was 9 percent very poor, 25 percent poor, 38 percent fair, 23 percent good, and 5 percent excellent as of October 1. In Nebraska, dry bean harvest was 80 percent complete as of October 1. Good quality is reported in California with growers busy harvesting their crop. Harvest progress in Colorado is ahead of average with 89 percent complete as of October 1, compared to 72 percent on average and 73 percent for 1999. In Minnesota, 84 percent of the crop had been harvested as of October 1, ahead of the 5-year average of 73 percent and ahead of 55 percent for last year. Excessive rain in the Red River Valley during late June to mid-July and dry weather in the west-central portion of the State during August have lowered yields in Minnesota. In Idaho, 88 percent of the crop had been harvested by October 1, compared to 92 percent harvested last year, and 82 percent harvested on average. Harvest is nearly complete in Kansas, while harvest continues in New York. Yields in Texas are much lower due to the severe drought, with some acreage abandonment being reported. As of October 1, eighty-six percent of the dry beans in Wyoming were combined, compared to 82 percent for 1999 and 86 percent on average. Harvest was 97 percent complete in Montana, compared to 89 percent for 1999 and 92 percent for the 5-year average. In Washington 63 percent of the crop had been harvested as of October 1, compared with 46 percent for 1999 and 60 percent on average. Winter Potatoes: The final 2000 winter potato production is estimated at 4.96 million cwt, up 22 percent from a year earlier and 66 percent above 1998. Winter harvest was taken from 17,000 acres in 2000, down 4 percent from a year earlier but 13 percent above 1998. The average yield of 292 cwt per acre was up 63 cwt from a year earlier and 93 cwt above 1998. California production rose 30 percent from a year earlier and Florida production increased 12 percent. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 2000 is forecast at 1.12 billion pounds, 3 percent above the September 1 forecast but down 13 percent from 1999. If realized, this will be the smallest crop since 1934. Revised area for harvest in 2000 is forecast at 492,260 acres, virtually unchanged from the September 1 forecast but down 24 percent from 1999. Yield for 2000 is expected to average 2,284 pounds per acre, 64 pounds higher than the September 1 forecast and 287 pounds above a year ago. Yield in Kentucky, the leading burley State, is averaging 50 pounds higher than last month's forecast and 290 pounds above a year ago. Flue-cured (types 11 - 14) production is expected to total 624 million pounds, up 4 percent from last month but down 5 percent from 1999. Growers plan to harvest 253,900 acres in 2000, unchanged from the September 1 forecast but 16 percent below last year. Yield is expected to average 2,457 pounds per acre, 105 pounds higher than last month and 295 pounds higher than the previous year. Growing conditions in North Carolina, the largest Flue-cured producing State, were excellent all season and rainfall levels were timely throughout the growing season. Fire-cured (types 21 - 23) production is expected to total 46.6 million pounds, the same as last month but 22 percent above the 1999 season. Growers plan to harvest 17,630 acres in 2000, unchanged from the previous forecast but 7 percent above a year ago. The expected average yield is 2,644 pounds per acre, unchanged from last month but 325 pounds higher than the previous year. The increase in production is the result of timely rainfall throughout the season and good curing conditions during September. Burley production (type 31) is expected to total 416 million pounds, 1 percent above the September 1 forecast but 25 percent below a year ago. Yield is expected to average 2,072 pounds per acre, 24 pounds above last month and 243 pounds higher than 1999. Overall, growing conditions have been favorable for burley production. Burley growers plan to harvest 201,000 acres, unchanged from last month but 34 percent below a year ago. Kentucky's production, at 263 million pounds, is expected to be 2 percent above last month but 31 percent below last year. Southern Maryland Belt (type 32) tobacco production is expected to total 14.6 million pounds, unchanged from the September 1 forecast but up 1 percent from the previous year. Average yield of 1,674 pounds per acre is unchanged from last month but 163 pounds above 1999. Growing conditions have been generally favorable with no unusual incidence of diseases. A total of 8,700 acres is expected to be harvested this year, the same as last month but down 8 percent from 1999. Dark Air-cured (types 35 - 37) production is expected to total 13.7 million pounds, up 4 percent from the previous forecast and 16 percent above 1999. Growers plan to harvest 5,460 acres in 2000, the same as the September 1 forecast but 7 percent more than last year. Yield is expected to average 2,504 pounds per acre, 86 pounds higher than last month and 191 pounds above last year. Growing conditions were generally favorable throughout the season and good curing conditions prevailed during September. All Cigar (types 41 - 61) production is expected to total 9.31 million pounds, down 5 percent from the September 1 forecast and 44 percent below last year. Overall yield is expected to average 1,671 pounds per acre, 87 pounds below last month's forecast and down 221 pounds from 1999. Connecticut and Massachusetts tobacco production was down significantly from last season due to "brown spot" and "hollow stem". Growers of all types of Cigar Type tobacco plan to harvest 5,570 acres, virtually unchanged from last month but 36 percent below a year ago. Sugarbeets: Production is forecast at 32.3 million tons from just over 1.4 million acres. This reflects preliminary acreage and production reductions due to the government PIK program announced in July. Harvested acres are 8 percent below last year and 7 percent below the September 1 forecast. The production forecast is down 6 percent from September and 3 percent below last year. The yield is forecast at 23.0 tons per acre, 1.1 tons above 1999 and 0.2 tons above the September forecast. If realized, the yield in North Dakota would be 0.2 ton below the 1998 record. Nearly ideal planting and growing conditions led to high yields in California. The Colorado and Michigan crop was rated mostly good to excellent with the harvest season just getting underway. In Idaho and Montana, the crop was 15 percent and 20 percent, respectively, harvested on October 1, slightly ahead of normal. Harvest progress lagged behind normal in Minnesota and North Dakota on October 1. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 35.6 million tons, 1 percent above the previous record of 35.3 million tons set last year. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest a record high 1.03 million acres for sugar and seed during the 2000 crop year, 3 percent more than last year's final harvested acres. Louisiana growers expect to harvest a record high 490,000 acres. In Florida, harvested acres are below last year's level. Yield is forecast at 34.7 tons per acre, 0.8 ton below 1999. Late-summer rains boosted growth in Texas while crop conditions in Louisiana remained virtually unchanged from September 1. The harvest season began in Louisiana and Texas by October 1. In Florida, the harvest season was expected to begin in mid-October. In Hawaii, the harvest pace remained active. Grapes: U.S. Grape production is forecasted at a record high 7.49 million tons, up 2 percent from the August 1 forecast and 20 percent above 1999. The three leading states, California, New York, and Washington, account for 97 percent of total U.S. Grape forecasted production. California's all grape forecast, at a record high at 6.85 million tons, increased 2 percent from the previous forecast and is up 24 percent from 1999. Washington expects to harvest 270,000 tons, down 7 percent from the August 1 forecast but up 2 percent from 1999. New York's total production forecast, at 165,000 tons, is 2 percent below the previous forecast and 20 percent below 1999. California's raisin type varieties account for 2.85 million tons, 41 percent of California's total grape crop. This is a 6 percent increase from the previous forecast and up 35 percent from last year. Picking of Thompson Seedless variety grapes for fresh use, wine crush, and raisin lay was still active in late September. For raisins, one fifth of the crop is on open trays, two fifths rolled, and two fifths picked up. The harvest has gone well with good drying weather. Production of table type grapes is estimated at 800,000 tons, 12 percent of the total California crop and 6 percent above last year. Picking continues in the San Joaquin Valley. Major varieties currently being harvested include Red Globe, Flame Seedless, Ruby Seedless, and Crimson Seedless. Good quality is reported. California's wine type varieties account for 3.20 million tons, 47 percent of California's total grape crop. Production of wine varieties is up 20 percent from 1999. Harvest of wine type variety grapes is active with good quality reported. Michigan's grape production is forecasted at 84,000 tons, 6 percent above the previous forecast and up 12 percent from 1999. If realized, this will be a record crop. Cool weather late in the growing season has delayed ripening this year. Some of the crop may be susceptible to frost. Sugar content is expected to be down from last year. The continual rains of late spring and early summer caused an increased need to spray against powdery mildew. The New York grape production is forecasted at 165,000 tons, down 20 percent from 1999. In most areas disease pressures are high due to excessive rains. As September ended, harvest reached about 50 percent complete. Quality has been good. Wine grape harvest is underway and expected to continue through the end of October. Pennsylvania's grape production is forecasted at 60,000 tons, down 32 percent from 1999. A lot of rain and little sunshine has resulted in many producers reporting powdery mildew, black rot, and dry rot. The early April freeze and bird infestations have been detrimental to the crop. Washington's production is forecasted at 270,000 tons, up 2 percent from 1999. Juice type grape varieties account for 180,000 tons, down 8 percent from last year. Juice type varieties account for two thirds of Washington's total grape crop. These varieties did not set as well as expected and recent frosts also hindered crop progress. Wine type varieties account for 90,000 tons, up 29 percent from last season. Harvest is progressing normally with good quality fruit and excellent yields reported. Bearing acreage has been increasing as the industry has expanded during the last several years. Grapefruit: The initial forecast of the 2000-01 grapefruit crop for the United States is 2.65 million tons, down 4 percent from last season but up 5 percent from the 1998-99 crop year. The Florida grapefruit crop is forecast at 50.0 million boxes (2.13 million tons), 6 percent lower than the previous season but 6 percent higher than the 1998-99 utilization. The all white grapefruit forecast, which includes seedy varieties, is 20.0 million boxes (850,000 tons). If realized, the crop size will be down 7 percent from last season but up 9 percent from two seasons ago. Fewer trees led to the decline. Fruit per tree, fruit size, and loss from droppage are nearly identical to last crop year. The colored seedless utilization is forecast at 30.0 million boxes (1.28 million tons), 6 percent below the previous season but 5 percent higher than the 1998-99 season. Despite more fruit per tree and less projected drop, the forecast is lower than last year due to fewer trees and slightly smaller fruit. California's October 1 forecast for grapefruit is 7.20 million boxes (241,000 tons), 3 percent more than last year's utilization but 1 percent less than two seasons ago. Fruit set is lighter than last season, but larger sizes led to the increase in production. Grapefruit production in Texas is forecast at 6.50 million boxes (260,000 tons), up 10 percent from the previous season. Harvest is just getting underway. Arizona's grapefruit forecast is 600,000 boxes (20,000 tons), an increase of 100,000 boxes from last season, but a 150,000 box decrease from the 1998-99 season. Lemons: The initial 2000-01 lemon forecast for the United States is 935,000 tons, up 8 percent from last season and 25 percent above the 1998-99 crop. California production is forecast at 21.0 million boxes (798,000 tons), 7 percent more than a year ago and 30 percent above two seasons ago. Harvest is underway in the desert, but slow due to the heat and humidity. In the south coastal region, volume picked has been heavy. Fruit size and quality are better than in recent seasons. The Arizona lemon crop is forecast at 3.60 million boxes (137,000 tons), 16 percent above the previous season and up 4 percent from the 1998-99 crop. Harvesting is underway in western areas and quality has been excellent. Tangelos: The initial 2000-01 tangelo forecast for Florida is 2.10 million boxes (94,500 tons), 5 percent less than last season's utilized production. If realized, it will be the smallest tangelo crop since the 1968-69 season. Smaller than average fruit and fewer trees led to the decline. Fruit per tree and loss from droppage is nearly the same as last season. Temples: Florida's initial 2000-01 Temple forecast is 1.80 million boxes (81,000 tons), 8 percent lower than the 1.95 million boxes recorded last season but at the same level as the 1998-99 season. Less trees and significantly less fruit per tree led to the decline in the forecast. Fruit size is slightly larger than last season. Fruit loss from droppage is projected to be lower than a year ago. Tangerines: The 2000-01 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 406,000 tons, down 10 percent from last season's record high utilization of 451,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 6.30 million boxes (299,000 tons), 10 percent lower than last year's record high utilization but 27 percent higher than the 1998-99 crop. Fewer fruit per tree led to the decrease in the forecast. California's tangerine forecast is 2.00 million boxes (75,000 tons), 13 percent lower than last year's crop. Excellent color and eating quality are expected this season. Arizona's tangerine forecast is 850,000 boxes (32,000 tons), the same level of production as last year but 11 percent less than the 1998-99 crop. Good size and quality are expected. K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2000-01 is 60,000 boxes (2,700 tons), 50,000 boxes fewer than last season, but 20,000 boxes more than the record low usage in the 1997-98 season of 40,000 boxes. Florida Citrus: Florida's citrus groves and new crop fruit were in good to excellent condition at the end of September. Surface soil moisture levels were adequate in virtually all areas. Rainfall during the month was mostly average in the interior of the State and slightly above average in the coastal areas due to Hurricane Gordon and Tropical Storm Helen. The winds that were associated with these storms were not excessively high and did not cause abnormal fruit droppage. New crop fruit sizes are mostly good. Grapefruit have good to excellent shape. Fresh fruit packinghouses have been testing fruit for early shipments. Navel oranges were the first fruit shipped, followed by white, and then colored grapefruit. Fallglo and Robinson tangerines were next, followed by Ambersweet oranges toward the end of the month. All shipments have been of relatively light volume. Caretakers have been very active cutting cover crops, fertilizing, spraying, and removing dead trees. A few growers are resetting young trees. Texas Citrus: Harvest is underway on early oranges and grapefruit. Minimal scarring and high quality is expected, as well as high sugar levels. Growers are concerned about maintaining an adequate water supply which is at a lower level than last year. More precipitation is needed. A new concern is the presence of the root weevil which leaves roots susceptible to fungus. California Citrus: Picking of 1999-00 crop Valencia oranges is still active. Many growers have been sending fruit directly to processors. Weak market conditions have kept Valencia oranges from fresh use. Picking of early season Navel orange varieties is expected to begin in the Edison area of Kern County after mid-October. Fruit set is down significantly from last year, but individual fruit size is large. The new crop grapefruit set is light, but fruit size and quality are good. Maturity levels are normal for this time of the season. For lemons, picking is slow in the desert area due to heat and humidity. In the south coast area, volume has been heavy. Fruit size and quality are better than the past few seasons. Picking of tangerines will begin by late October with good condition expected. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Harvest of many stone fruit crops was near completion by October 1. Picking of grapes for fresh use continued in the San Joaquin Valley. Primary varieties were Red Globe, Thompson Seedless, Ruby Seedless, and Crimson Seedless. Wine grape harvest was active throughout September. Harvest of grapes for raisins made good progress with 20 percent on open trays, 40 percent rolled, and 40 percent picked up by the end of September. Excellent warm and sunny weather for drying occurred throughout September. Bartlett pear picking was completed by early September, but winter pear picking continued through the end of the month. Harvest activity continued for pomegranates, Fuji and Granny Smith apples, kiwifruit, and olives. Raspberries were harvested in the Tehachapi area and strawberry picking was active on the central coast. Almond harvest gathered momentum as later variety trees were shaken. Walnut and pistachio harvests continued. Pecan harvest was underway. Apples: The final production forecast for the 2000 crop year is 10.7 billion pounds, unchanged from the August 1 forecast but 1 percent above 1999. Increased production in most of the Western States more than offset projected decreases in the Central and Eastern States when compared to last year. The Eastern States (CT, GA, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, NC, PA, RI, SC, VT, VA, WV) expect to produce 2.44 billion pounds, unchanged from the August 1 forecast but down 15 percent from last year. The New York production forecast was decreased 30.0 million pounds from the August 1 forecast because of hail losses and fruit did not size up as well as expected. Virginia's forecast was increased by 30.0 million pounds from the previous forecast because recent rains have improved apple size. No changes in production from the earlier forecast are expected for North Carolina, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. All other Eastern States were carried forward from the August 1 forecast. Production in the Central States (AR, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, TN, WI) is forecast at 1.27 billion pounds, up 9 percent from the August 1 forecast but down 21 percent from 1999. Michigan's forecast was increased by 100 million pounds from the previous forecast due to favorable weather. Also, crop losses from fire blight, hail and frost are less than earlier expected for Michigan. All other Central States were carried forward from the August 1 forecast. Production in the Western States (AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, UT, WA) is forecast at 6.96 billion pounds, down 1 percent from the August 1 forecast but up 14 percent from last year. Washington's forecast decreased 100 million pounds from the August 1 forecast. Producers indicate an excellent crop but not quite as large as earlier expected. All other Western States were carried forward from the August 1 forecast. Pecans: The October 1 forecast for 2000 pecan production is 216 million pounds (in-shell basis), down 47 percent from last year's record high crop. The expected alternate bearing cycle has combined with dry conditions to yield the sharply lower crop size. Improved varieties are expected to make up 167 million pounds, or 77 percent of the total, while the Native and seedling varieties make up the balance. The Georgia forecast, at 80.0 million pounds, is 33 percent lower than 1999's record high crop. Most of the decrease is related to the alternate bearing cycle. Drought conditions existed for parts of the State, however, moisture received during September benefited the crop. Harvest had not yet begun as of October 1. New Mexico's forecast is 35.0 million pounds, 33 percent below last year. Although lower yields are expected, quality is expected to be very good. The Texas production forecast is 30.0 million pounds, one-third of the 1999 production. Some producers are unlikely to harvest native groves due to low yields. Severe drought conditions have many growers concerned with possible tree loss. Arizona and Louisiana are both forecast at 17.0 million pounds, down from last year's levels. Dry conditions in both States combined with the alternate bearing cycle are prompting the lower expectations. The Alabama forecast, at 15.0 million pounds, is 2.00 million pounds higher than last year's crop. Trees have been recovering from Hurricane Georges in 1998. Baldwin and Mobile county growers are expecting excellent yields. These two counties have historically accounted for almost half the State's pecan production. The Oklahoma production is forecast at 8.00 million pounds, only 13 percent of the 1999 production. Much of the decrease is due to the alternate bearing cycle, which is especially prevalent with Native and seedling trees. Another significant factor is that virtually no rain was received since August 1. There are also concerns about higher than normal wildlife damage. Hazelnuts: Projected hazelnut production in Oregon and Washington remains at 25,000 tons for 2000, unchanged from the September forecast. Oregon's share of production is expected to be 24,800 tons with Washington making up the difference of 200 tons. Hazelnuts began dropping during the middle of September. By early October, harvest was underway. Grower comments indicate good kernel quality and size. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 3.64 million pounds for September, 10 percent lower than August but 5 percent higher than a year ago. Crop area totaled 2,755 acres, 2 percent lower than the revised August total and 15 percent below a year ago. Harvested area is 1,610 acres, 1 percent lower than the revised August harvested area and virtually unchanged from a year ago. Dry conditions earlier in the year affected flowering in non-irrigated orchards where the majority of production is located. Weather conditions in September were variable with a mix of sunshine and showers over major papaya producing areas. Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecast Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between September 23 and October 5 to gather information on expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, soybeans, and cotton were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The items counted within the selected plots depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears, pods, or bolls and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The five-year average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 14,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported survey estimates were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous month and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analysis to prepare the published October 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. At the end of the marketing year administrative records and a balance sheet are utilized using carryover stocks, production, exports, processing, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the October 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the 1980-1999 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain production forecast is 3.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.1 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimates. Using corn again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 176 million bushels, ranging from 4 million to 624 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 11 times and above 9 times. This does not imply that the October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. For most crops, the number of years the forecasts have been below or above the final estimate is about equally distributed. Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Root Mean : 20-Year Record of : : Square Error : Differences Between Forecast : :------------------: and Final Estimate : : : :------------------------------------ Crop :Unit : : 90 : Quantity : Years : :Percent: Percent :------------------------------------ : : :Confidence: : : :Below:Above : : : Interval :Average:Smallest:Largest:Final:Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ Million ------ Number : : Corn For Grain :Bu : 3.5 6.1 176 4 624 11 9 Sorghum for Grain :Bu : 5.9 10.2 25 1 105 11 9 Rice :Cwt : 2.9 5.1 4 1 13 11 9 Soybeans for Beans:Bu : 3.2 5.8 53 2 119 8 12 Cotton 1/ :Bales: 4.2 7.3 533 31 1,424 13 7 Dry Edible Beans :Cwt : 3.6 6.3 0.5 0.0 2.6 15 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Quantity is in thousands of bales. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Brad Parks, Head (202) 720-2127 Rhonda Brandt - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Herman Ellison - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Roy Karkosh - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Jerry Ramirez - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-3250 Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4288 Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270 Keith Lacy - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. on November 9, 2000. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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The other USDA agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and the World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau and The National Weather Service will also be included in the meeting. For registration details, contact Karlyn McCutcheon (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or (800) 727-9540 or e-mail hq_dapp@nass.usda.gov