Cr Pr 2-2 (12-00) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 12, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Cotton Production Down Slightly from November All Orange Production Down 4 Percent from October All cotton production is forecast at 17.4 million 480-pound bales, down less than 1 percent from last month, but up 3 percent from 1999. Yield is expected to average 619 pounds per harvested acre, down 3 pounds from last month. Survey and ginnings data indicate a 200,000 bale decrease in Texas production from the November forecast, which more than offset a 150,000 bale increase in California. On November 26, U.S. harvest was 85 percent complete, the same pace as both last year and the 5-year average. The U.S. all orange December 1 forecast of the 2000-01 crop is 12.6 million tons, down 4 percent from both October and last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is 229 million boxes (10.3 million tons), 5 percent below the October forecast and 2 percent less than the 1999-2000 crop year. The weather since the beginning of October has been drier than normal. Constant irrigation was needed to maintain good tree condition. Water reservoirs are at very low levels. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 127 million boxes (5.72 million tons), a 6 percent decrease from October. If realized, this production will be 5 percent lower than the previous season. Fruit size is considerably smaller than originally projected and may end up as the smallest in the last ten years. A near record low fruit drop is projected, which will partially offset the smaller fruit size. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 102 million boxes (4.59 million tons), is down 3 percent from October, but is 3 percent higher than last season's final utilization. The Valencias also have smaller fruit size and a low drop rate. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the October forecasts. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is unchanged at 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is virtually the same as last season's yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. Projected juice yield for 2000-01 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on December 12, 2000. Acting Secretary of Agriculture August Schumacher, Jr. Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Frederic A. Vogel Contents Page Beans, Dry Edible. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Coffee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Crop Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Pecans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . . . . . . . . .22 Sugarcane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 Tobacco, Burley. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 1999 and Forecasted December 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 2000 : : State : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 :-------------------: 1999 : 2000 : : : : Nov 1 : Dec 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 561.0 540.0 535 489 489 625.0 550.0 AZ : 269.0 279.0 1,278 1,273 1,273 716.0 740.0 AR : 960.0 950.0 714 738 743 1,428.0 1,470.0 CA : 605.0 765.0 1,254 1,286 1,380 1,580.0 2,200.0 GA : 1,300.0 1,300.0 579 594 594 1,567.0 1,610.0 LA : 610.0 700.0 709 638 627 901.0 915.0 MS : 1,180.0 1,280.0 704 656 649 1,731.0 1,730.0 MO : 377.0 400.0 601 660 648 472.0 540.0 NM : 79.0 85.0 662 734 734 109.0 130.0 NC : 825.0 930.0 475 748 748 816.0 1,450.0 OK : 150.0 200.0 461 444 420 144.0 175.0 SC : 315.0 290.0 428 604 629 281.0 380.0 TN : 565.0 570.0 505 606 606 595.0 720.0 TX : 5,100.0 4,800.0 475 430 410 5,050.0 4,100.0 VA : 108.0 109.0 635 722 722 142.8 164.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 134.0 129.0 487 428 428 135.9 115.0 : US :13,138.0 13,327.0 595 615 612 16,293.7 16,989.0 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 8.9 6.0 879 824 824 16.3 10.3 CA : 239.0 144.0 1,210 1,233 1,200 602.7 360.0 NM : 7.0 6.0 734 680 680 10.7 8.5 TX : 32.0 16.0 669 810 930 44.6 31.0 : US : 286.9 172.0 1,128 1,160 1,144 674.3 409.8 : All : AL : 561.0 540.0 535 489 489 625.0 550.0 AZ : 277.9 285.0 1,265 1,264 1,264 732.3 750.3 AR : 960.0 950.0 714 738 743 1,428.0 1,470.0 CA : 844.0 909.0 1,241 1,278 1,352 2,182.7 2,560.0 GA : 1,300.0 1,300.0 579 594 594 1,567.0 1,610.0 LA : 610.0 700.0 709 638 627 901.0 915.0 MS : 1,180.0 1,280.0 704 656 649 1,731.0 1,730.0 MO : 377.0 400.0 601 660 648 472.0 540.0 NM : 86.0 91.0 668 731 731 119.7 138.5 NC : 825.0 930.0 475 748 748 816.0 1,450.0 OK : 150.0 200.0 461 444 420 144.0 175.0 SC : 315.0 290.0 428 604 629 281.0 380.0 TN : 565.0 570.0 505 606 606 595.0 720.0 TX : 5,132.0 4,816.0 477 431 412 5,094.6 4,131.0 VA : 108.0 109.0 635 722 722 142.8 164.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 134.0 129.0 487 428 428 135.9 115.0 : US :13,424.9 13,499.0 607 622 619 16,968.0 17,398.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3/ Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level forecasts will be published in the "January Crop Production" report. Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1998-1999 and Forecasted December 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 5,365.4 6,353.5 6,512.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Burley Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State, and United States, 1998-1999 and Forecasted December 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : Type 31 : IN : 6,500 3,800 1,800 2,100 17,000 11,700 7,980 KY : 210,000 125,000 1,810 2,100 416,025 380,100 262,500 MO 1/ : 2,300 1,400 2,015 2,180 5,751 4,635 3,052 NC : 7,800 7,800 1,600 1,650 11,745 12,480 12,870 OH : 9,800 7,500 1,740 1,790 17,934 17,052 13,425 TN : 55,000 45,000 1,890 2,000 91,545 103,950 90,000 VA : 10,600 9,000 2,180 2,000 20,176 23,108 18,000 WV 1/ : 1,600 1,500 1,350 1,600 2,160 2,160 2,400 : US : 303,600 201,000 1,829 2,041 582,336 555,185 410,227 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Oct : 3,225 2,710 1,620 1,580 3,520 4,210 Nov : 3,205 2,720 1,605 1,585 3,565 4,380 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1998-1999, 1999-2000 and Forecasted December 1, 2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :---------------------------------------------------------- : 1998-99 : 1999-00 : 2000-01 : 1998-99 : 1999-00 :2000-01 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 550 600 550 21 22 21 CA 4/ : 21,000 40,000 34,000 787 1,500 1,275 FL : 112,000 134,000 127,000 5,040 6,030 5,715 TX 4/ : 1,250 1,540 1,800 53 66 77 US : 134,800 176,140 163,350 5,901 7,618 7,088 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 600 500 500 22 19 19 CA 4/ : 15,000 27,000 25,000 563 1,013 938 FL : 74,000 99,000 102,000 3,330 4,455 4,590 TX 4/ : 180 200 200 8 8 8 US : 89,780 126,700 127,700 3,923 5,495 5,555 All : AZ 4/ : 1,150 1,100 1,050 43 41 40 CA 4/ : 36,000 67,000 59,000 1,350 2,513 2,213 FL : 186,000 233,000 229,000 8,370 10,485 10,305 TX 4/ : 1,430 1,740 2,000 61 74 85 US : 224,580 302,840 291,050 9,824 13,113 12,643 Temples : FL : 1,800 1,950 1,800 81 88 81 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 17,800 20,900 20,000 757 888 850 Colored Seedless : FL : 28,700 31,900 30,000 1,220 1,356 1,275 Other 5/ : FL : 550 600 23 25 All : AZ 4/ : 750 500 600 25 17 20 CA 4/ : 7,300 7,000 7,200 244 235 241 FL : 47,050 53,400 50,000 2,000 2,269 2,125 TX 4/ : 6,100 5,930 6,500 244 237 260 US : 61,200 66,830 64,300 2,513 2,758 2,646 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 950 850 850 36 32 32 CA 4/ 6/ : 1,500 2,300 2,000 56 86 75 FL : 4,950 7,000 6,300 235 333 299 US : 7,400 10,150 9,150 327 451 406 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,450 3,100 3,600 131 118 137 CA : 16,200 19,600 21,000 616 745 798 US : 19,650 22,700 24,600 747 863 935 Tangelos : FL : 2,550 2,200 2,100 115 99 95 K-Early Citrus : FL : 80 110 60 4 5 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5/ Seedy (Duncan) grapefruit estimates discontinued after 1999-00 crop. Included with White Seedless beginning with the 2000-01 crop. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1998-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 110.0 135.0 115.0 105.0 132.0 112.0 CO : 170.0 155.0 120.0 155.0 145.0 110.0 ID : 105.0 105.0 90.0 103.0 103.0 88.0 KS : 20.0 22.0 18.0 19.0 20.9 16.0 MI : 300.0 350.0 285.0 295.0 350.0 275.0 MN : 190.0 205.0 165.0 175.0 165.0 150.0 MT : 16.6 26.5 40.0 16.0 25.5 36.5 NE : 195.0 210.0 165.0 188.0 187.0 156.0 NM 2/ : 10.5 1.0 9.5 1.0 NY : 31.0 31.0 25.0 30.0 30.2 24.5 ND : 750.0 630.0 610.0 710.0 570.0 525.0 OR : 8.7 11.5 12.0 8.6 10.8 11.7 SD 3/ : 11.0 10.8 TX : 15.0 50.0 18.0 13.5 47.0 15.5 UT : 6.0 6.7 5.4 5.9 6.6 3.0 WA : 40.0 36.0 32.0 40.0 36.0 32.0 WI : 7.3 8.3 8.3 7.2 8.0 8.1 WY : 39.0 40.0 38.0 37.0 39.0 36.0 : US : 2,014.1 2,023.0 1,757.7 1,917.7 1,877.0 1,610.1 :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Acre : Production :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ---------- 1,000 Cwt --------- : CA : 1,480 1,860 1,800 1,554 2,455 2,016 CO : 1,850 1,900 1,800 2,868 2,755 1,980 ID : 2,050 2,050 1,950 2,112 2,112 1,716 KS : 2,000 1,850 1,810 380 387 289 MI : 1,500 2,100 1,500 4,425 7,350 4,125 MN : 1,450 1,550 1,600 2,538 2,558 2,400 MT : 2,190 1,730 1,650 350 441 604 NE : 1,950 2,000 2,070 3,666 3,740 3,230 NM 2/ : 1,800 1,800 171 18 NY : 1,420 1,370 1,460 426 414 358 ND : 1,380 1,450 1,450 9,798 8,265 7,613 OR : 1,770 1,610 1,800 152 174 211 SD 3/ : 2,090 226 TX : 1,000 1,490 950 135 701 148 UT : 510 800 330 30 53 10 WA : 2,230 2,080 2,000 890 750 640 WI : 1,600 1,550 1,800 115 124 146 WY : 2,180 2,020 1,980 808 788 712 : US : 1,586 1,763 1,641 30,418 33,085 26,424 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2/ Estimates discontinued in 2000. 3/ Estimates began in 2000. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1998-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Large Lima : CA : 26.0 25.0 20.5 25.0 24.0 19.5 : Baby Lima : CA : 13.0 27.0 24.5 12.0 26.0 23.5 : Navy : CO : 0.6 0.6 ID : 1.5 5.1 7.3 1.5 5.0 7.1 MI : 75.0 150.0 125.0 74.0 150.0 120.0 MN : 51.0 80.0 66.0 46.0 64.0 60.0 NE : 5.0 7.0 4.0 4.8 6.2 3.5 NM 1/ : 2.0 2.0 ND : 120.0 195.0 138.0 114.0 175.0 111.0 OR : 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.6 SD 2/ : 3.2 3.1 WY : 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 Total : 255.5 440.3 346.2 243.3 403.3 307.2 : Great Northern : CO : 0.2 0.2 ID : 7.5 6.6 7.2 7.4 6.5 7.0 MN : 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.5 2.3 NE : 97.0 115.0 104.5 93.2 104.0 100.0 ND : 6.5 5.5 WA : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 WY : 6.0 8.0 7.0 5.5 7.7 6.2 Total : 113.2 133.5 128.9 108.5 121.8 122.1 : Small White : ID : 1.5 2.9 1.4 1.4 2.9 1.4 OR : 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 WA : 1.0 1.8 0.9 1.0 1.8 0.9 Total : 2.8 5.3 2.9 2.7 5.3 2.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1998-2000 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre : Production and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : Large Lima : CA : 1,250 1,800 2,210 312 433 430 : Baby Lima : CA : 1,700 2,380 2,180 204 620 513 : Navy : CO : 1,500 9 ID : 2,330 2,160 2,250 35 108 160 MI : 1,600 2,300 1,500 1,180 3,450 1,800 MN : 1,620 1,560 1,650 745 998 990 NE : 2,130 1,950 2,200 102 121 77 NM 1/ : 2,000 40 ND : 1,550 1,460 1,460 1,767 2,555 1,620 OR : 2,250 1,920 1,170 9 23 7 SD 2/ : 2,480 77 WY : 2,050 2,110 39 40 Total : 1,598 1,809 1,553 3,887 7,294 4,771 : Great Northern : CO : 1,500 3 ID : 2,140 2,110 2,090 158 137 146 MN : 1,360 1,600 1,520 30 40 35 NE : 1,990 2,030 2,040 1,855 2,111 2,040 ND : 1,510 83 WA : 2,450 2,180 27 24 WY : 2,310 2,000 1,940 127 154 120 Total : 2,003 2,027 2,005 2,173 2,469 2,448 : Small White : ID : 2,210 2,100 2,070 31 61 29 OR : 2,330 2,000 2,670 7 12 16 WA : 2,200 2,170 2,110 22 39 19 Total : 2,222 2,113 2,207 60 112 64 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2000. 2/ Estimates began in 2000. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1998-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Pinto : CO : 152.0 125.0 100.0 138.0 118.5 92.0 ID : 44.2 31.2 29.2 43.5 30.6 28.4 KS : 18.5 16.5 17.3 17.7 15.8 15.5 MI : 21.0 9.0 21.0 20.0 9.0 20.0 MN : 55.0 38.0 39.0 52.0 24.0 34.0 MT : 12.2 13.9 14.5 12.0 13.2 13.7 NE : 76.0 60.0 39.0 73.7 54.0 36.0 NM 1/ : 5.5 1.0 4.5 1.0 ND : 540.0 363.0 411.0 510.0 332.0 363.0 OR : 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.4 SD 2/ : 2.3 2.3 TX : 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 1.4 1.0 UT : 6.0 6.7 5.4 5.9 6.6 3.0 WA : 16.0 9.0 10.5 16.0 9.0 10.5 WY : 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.0 27.5 27.0 Total : 977.1 705.2 720.7 923.0 644.9 648.8 : Light Red : Kidney : CA : 9.5 8.0 11.0 8.5 8.0 11.0 CO : 10.0 15.0 12.0 9.4 12.5 11.0 ID : 1.6 0.8 1.6 1.6 0.8 1.6 MI : 14.0 17.0 19.0 13.0 17.0 19.0 MN : 11.0 11.0 10.0 10.5 10.5 9.6 NE : 13.0 19.0 13.0 12.6 14.8 12.3 NY : 16.0 17.7 15.0 15.5 17.5 14.6 WA : 0.9 2.0 1.4 0.9 2.0 1.4 Total : 76.0 90.5 83.0 72.0 83.1 80.5 : Dark Red : Kidney : CA : 5.5 3.5 6.0 5.5 3.5 6.0 ID : 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 MI : 9.0 9.0 12.0 9.0 9.0 12.0 MN : 34.0 38.0 32.0 32.0 36.0 30.0 NY : 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.8 ND : 5.5 5.0 4.0 5.2 4.7 3.5 WI : 7.3 8.3 8.3 7.2 8.0 8.1 Total : 64.2 66.9 65.3 61.8 64.3 62.5 : Pink : CA : 5.5 2.0 0.7 5.5 2.0 0.7 ID : 17.6 19.2 3.2 17.2 18.7 3.2 MN : 13.0 14.0 6.0 12.2 10.2 5.8 ND : 13.0 11.0 4.0 12.6 10.0 3.5 WA : 6.0 4.5 4.2 6.0 4.5 4.2 Total : 55.1 50.7 18.1 53.5 45.4 17.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1998-2000 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre : Production and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- -------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : Pinto : CO : 1,900 1,890 1,820 2,617 2,235 1,675 ID : 2,100 2,170 2,270 914 664 644 KS : 2,000 1,850 1,800 354 292 279 MI : 1,470 1,890 1,450 293 170 290 MN : 1,400 1,430 1,450 726 343 494 MT : 2,200 2,240 2,270 264 296 311 NE : 1,880 2,030 2,080 1,386 1,096 749 NM 1/ : 2,040 1,800 92 18 ND : 1,340 1,460 1,460 6,832 4,860 5,294 OR : 1,910 1,520 2,420 42 35 58 SD 2/ : 2,480 57 TX : 600 860 800 3 12 8 UT : 510 800 330 30 53 10 WA : 2,380 2,300 2,300 380 207 242 WY : 2,140 2,030 1,980 578 558 535 Total : 1,572 1,681 1,641 14,511 10,839 10,646 : Light Red : Kidney : CA : 1,380 1,510 1,230 117 121 135 CO : 1,810 1,760 1,750 170 220 193 ID : 2,000 2,130 1,690 32 17 27 MI : 1,310 1,800 1,500 170 306 285 MN : 1,570 1,700 1,850 165 178 178 NE : 2,000 1,790 2,200 252 265 271 NY : 1,350 1,290 1,430 209 225 209 WA : 2,110 2,150 1,860 19 43 26 Total : 1,575 1,655 1,645 1,134 1,375 1,324 : Dark Red : Kidney : CA : 850 1,310 1,170 47 46 70 ID : 2,220 2,000 1,910 20 22 21 MI : 1,000 1,700 1,520 90 153 182 MN : 1,410 1,660 1,700 450 597 510 NY : 1,600 1,350 1,280 32 27 23 ND : 1,690 1,510 1,430 88 71 50 WI : 1,600 1,550 1,800 115 124 146 Total : 1,362 1,617 1,603 842 1,040 1,002 : Pink : CA : 1,070 1,150 1,140 59 23 8 ID : 2,170 2,200 2,160 373 412 69 MN : 1,210 1,400 1,470 148 143 85 ND : 1,500 1,450 1,570 189 145 55 WA : 2,500 2,040 2,480 150 92 104 Total : 1,718 1,795 1,845 919 815 321 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2000. 2/ Estimates began in 2000. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1998-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Small Red : ID : 13.1 19.6 7.2 12.8 19.1 7.0 MI : 11.0 15.0 8.0 11.0 15.0 8.0 WA : 8.0 8.0 2.2 8.0 8.0 2.2 Total : 32.1 42.6 17.4 31.8 42.1 17.2 : Cranberry : CA : 2.5 2.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 3.5 ID : 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.3 MI : 27.0 31.0 26.0 26.0 31.0 25.0 MN : 3.0 2.6 0.8 2.7 2.4 0.5 Total : 33.4 37.4 31.6 32.1 37.1 30.3 : Black : CA : 2.5 1.0 1.0 2.5 1.0 1.0 CO : 0.7 1.2 0.5 1.0 ID : 5.0 4.8 1.1 4.9 4.8 1.1 MI : 135.0 108.0 55.0 134.0 108.0 53.0 MN : 15.0 10.6 4.9 12.6 9.8 4.3 NE : 3.0 7.0 0.8 2.8 6.4 0.8 NY : 10.5 9.5 5.2 10.0 9.0 5.2 ND : 63.0 41.0 25.0 60.0 37.0 22.0 WA : 2.2 3.2 1.2 2.2 3.2 1.2 WY : 3.0 2.8 Total : 239.9 186.3 94.2 232.3 180.2 88.6 : Blackeye : CA : 33.0 39.5 15.3 31.0 38.5 15.3 TX : 5.5 33.0 6.5 4.9 31.0 5.1 Total : 38.5 72.5 21.8 35.9 69.5 20.4 : Garbanzo : CA : 5.0 16.5 24.5 5.0 16.5 23.5 ID : 10.6 11.8 28.6 10.3 11.7 28.0 MT : 4.0 12.1 25.0 3.8 11.8 22.5 ND : 10.0 15.0 8.0 11.0 OR : 3.9 2.7 5.8 3.9 2.4 5.8 SD 2/ : 4.0 3.9 WA : 5.0 5.4 9.5 5.0 5.4 9.5 Total : 28.5 58.5 112.4 28.0 55.8 104.2 : Other : CA : 7.5 10.0 8.0 7.5 10.0 8.0 CO : 6.5 13.8 8.0 6.3 13.0 7.0 ID : 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 KS : 1.5 5.5 0.7 1.3 5.1 0.5 MI : 8.0 11.0 19.0 8.0 11.0 18.0 MN : 5.5 8.0 3.7 4.8 5.6 3.5 MT : 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 NE : 1.0 2.0 3.7 0.9 1.6 3.4 NM 1/ : 3.0 3.0 NY : 2.5 1.8 2.9 2.5 1.7 2.9 ND : 8.5 5.0 6.5 8.2 3.3 5.5 OR : 1.9 4.6 2.4 1.8 4.3 2.3 SD 2/ : 1.5 1.5 TX : 9.0 15.5 10.5 8.1 14.6 9.4 WA : 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 WY : 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.7 1.9 0.9 Total : 58.8 81.3 70.2 55.8 74.2 65.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1998-2000 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre : Production and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : Small Red : ID : 2,150 2,120 2,100 275 405 147 MI : 1,820 2,070 1,410 200 310 113 WA : 2,310 2,310 2,410 185 185 53 Total : 2,075 2,138 1,820 660 900 313 : Cranberry : CA : 1,400 960 1,140 35 24 40 ID : 2,000 1,920 1,770 18 23 23 MI : 1,100 1,600 1,520 285 496 380 MN : 1,630 1,420 1,400 44 34 7 Total : 1,190 1,555 1,485 382 577 450 : Black : CA : 1,400 1,000 1,000 35 10 10 CO : 1,800 2,000 9 20 ID : 2,180 2,150 2,180 107 103 24 MI : 1,570 2,090 1,580 2,100 2,260 840 MN : 1,370 1,530 1,330 172 150 57 NE : 2,000 1,800 2,250 56 115 18 NY : 1,470 1,570 1,500 147 141 78 ND : 1,360 1,340 1,280 816 496 282 WA : 2,500 2,380 2,670 55 76 32 WY : 2,390 67 Total : 1,534 1,871 1,514 3,564 3,371 1,341 : Blackeye : CA : 1,840 2,010 2,090 570 775 320 TX : 1,690 1,700 900 83 527 46 Total : 1,819 1,873 1,794 653 1,302 366 : Garbanzo : CA : 1,600 1,730 1,490 80 285 350 ID : 1,320 1,260 1,460 136 147 410 MT : 2,210 1,130 1,290 84 133 290 ND : 1,100 1,320 88 145 OR : 1,510 920 1,330 59 22 77 SD 2/ : 1,670 65 WA : 1,180 1,110 1,240 59 60 118 Total : 1,493 1,317 1,396 418 735 1,455 : Other : CA : 1,270 1,180 1,750 95 118 140 CO : 950 2,150 1,600 60 280 112 ID : 2,170 2,170 2,000 13 13 16 KS : 2,000 1,860 2,000 26 95 10 MI : 1,340 1,860 1,310 107 205 235 MN : 1,210 1,340 1,260 58 75 44 MT : 1,000 2,400 1,000 2 12 3 NE : 1,670 2,000 2,210 15 32 75 NM 1/ : 1,300 39 NY : 1,520 1,240 1,660 38 21 48 ND : 1,290 1,520 1,530 106 50 84 OR : 1,940 1,910 2,300 35 82 53 SD 2/ : 1,800 27 TX : 600 1,110 1,000 49 162 94 WA : 2,220 2,100 2,200 20 21 22 WY : 2,120 1,950 1,890 36 37 17 Total : 1,253 1,621 1,508 699 1,203 980 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2000. 2/ Estimates began in 2000. Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1998-1999 and Forecasted December 1, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds Improved Varieties 1/ : AL : 3,500 7,000 11,000 AZ : 13,000 22,800 16,000 AR 2/ : 300 1,500 900 CA 2/ : 1,700 1,900 2,300 FL 2/ : 200 1,100 800 GA : 35,000 85,000 70,000 LA : 3,000 4,000 3,000 MS 2/ : 800 3,500 1,000 NM : 32,000 52,000 35,000 NC 2/ : 1,500 800 1,800 OK : 200 3,000 500 SC 2/ : 800 1,800 1,700 TX : 20,000 35,000 22,000 : US : 112,000 219,400 166,000 : Native & Seedling : AL : 1,500 6,000 4,000 AR 2/ : 250 2,300 400 FL 2/ : 1,100 2,600 1,700 GA : 5,000 35,000 10,000 KS : 50 5,000 400 LA : 13,000 18,000 14,000 MS 2/ : 400 1,500 500 NC 2/ : 1,000 400 1,000 OK : 1,800 60,000 2,500 SC 2/ : 300 900 800 TX : 10,000 55,000 8,000 : US : 34,400 186,700 43,300 : All Pecans : AL : 5,000 13,000 15,000 AZ : 13,000 22,800 16,000 AR 2/ : 550 3,800 1,300 CA 2/ : 1,700 1,900 2,300 FL 2/ : 1,300 3,700 2,500 GA : 40,000 120,000 80,000 KS : 50 5,000 400 LA : 16,000 22,000 17,000 MS 2/ : 1,200 5,000 1,500 NM : 32,000 52,000 35,000 NC 2/ : 2,500 1,200 2,800 OK : 2,000 63,000 3,000 SC 2/ : 1,100 2,700 2,500 TX : 30,000 90,000 30,000 : US : 146,400 406,100 209,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 1998-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : For Sugar : FL : 443.0 438.0 35.0 36.0 17,083 15,505 15,768 HI : 35.4 32.6 81.7 80.7 2,727 2,892 2,631 LA : 435.0 455.0 32.7 31.0 11,880 14,225 14,105 TX : 28.0 46.0 34.1 37.7 1,053 955 1,734 : US : 941.4 971.6 35.7 35.2 32,743 33,577 34,238 : For Seed : FL : 17.0 17.0 35.0 39.0 842 595 663 HI : 1.9 2.8 35.8 34.0 71 68 95 LA : 30.0 35.0 32.7 31.0 1,040 981 1,085 TX : 3.0 0.6 26.0 25.0 11 78 15 : US : 51.9 55.4 33.2 33.5 1,964 1,722 1,858 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 460.0 455.0 35.0 36.1 17,925 16,100 16,431 HI : 37.3 35.4 79.4 77.0 2,798 2,960 2,726 LA : 465.0 490.0 32.7 31.0 12,920 15,206 15,190 TX : 31.0 46.6 33.3 37.5 1,064 1,033 1,749 : US : 993.3 1,027.0 35.5 35.1 34,707 35,299 36,096 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Coffee: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Hawaii 1998-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- :1998-99:1999-00:2000-01:1998-99:1999-00:2000-01:1998-99:1999-00:2000-01 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Acres ------- ------- Pounds ------ ---- 1,000 Pounds --- : HI : 6,100 6,400 6,800 1,560 1,560 1,340 9,500 10,000 9,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Parchment basis. November Weather Summary Heavy rain in the South eased or eradicated long-term drought and benefited pastures and winter grains, but slowed fieldwork. On the southern Plains, cool weather and soaking early-month rains hampered winter wheat planting and emergence, and cotton and soybean harvesting. Although drier weather after mid-month allowed fieldwork to gradually resume on the southern High Plains, rain shifted eastward, drenching areas from eastern Texas to the Carolinas. However, most of Florida's peninsula remained unfavorably dry, increasing irrigation requirements. Farther north, occasional, generally light precipitation provided only limited relief from a 2-month dry spell from the Mid-Atlantic region westward into the middle Ohio Valley. Precipitation was also below normal in much of California and the Northwest, despite a late-month increase in storm activity. Between a brief, early-month warm spell and a late-month warming trend, the Nation experienced a very cold November. The coldest conditions shifted from the West early in the month to nearly nationwide by mid-November. As a result, monthly temperatures averaged as much as 15 degrees F below normal in the northern Plains and northern Rockies and generally 3 to 7 degrees F below normal in California and the Northwest. As cold weather settled in, a series of storm systems provided extensive snow cover from the Southwest to the northern half of the Plains, insulating winter wheat from extreme cold in the latter region. Sub-zero temperatures were primarily confined to areas with a blanket of snow, while sub-freezing readings edged into areas as far south as southern California and along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to northern Florida. Direct impacts from the cold were relatively minor; however, and temperatures remained well above the freezing mark in Florida's citrus belt. November Agricultural Summary The harvest season ended ahead of normal in the Corn Belt, aided by mostly dry weather. In the southern Great Plains, rain delayed winter wheat seeding, but boosted moisture supplies and assisted emergence. In the central and northern Great Plains, rain and snow increased top soil moisture, but cold weather limited winter wheat emergence. On the Atlantic Coastal Plains, dry weather aided row crop harvest and winter grain seeding early in the month, while rain reduced moisture shortages and stimulated winter grain emergence after mid-month. Fieldwork continued with few interruptions in California and Florida. Some crops remained unharvested in the mid-Atlantic States and Northeast. Winter wheat seeding slowly progressed, as a variety of winter storms frequently halted fieldwork. Wet weather limited planting progress in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas early in the month, but planting continued with few delays on the High Plains. In Oklahoma, just two-thirds of the crop was seeded on November 12, compared with 97 percent normally planted by that date. Seeding slowly accelerated in the southern Great Plains after mid-month, as wet soils gradually dried enough to support machinery. In the Corn Belt, where rain delays were shorter and less frequent, winter wheat seeding was nearly complete by mid-month. Seeding accelerated on the Atlantic Coastal Plains early in the month and rapidly progressed through the remainder of the month. In North Carolina, planting progressed from 41 percent complete on November 5, to 80 percent complete on November 26. Mostly dry weather aided planting in California, where seeding advanced well ahead of the 5-year average until mid-month. In Arkansas, the seeding pace was ahead of the 5-year average when the month began and remained ahead of normal until late in the month, despite occasional rain delays. Below normal temperatures hindered emergence and growth of winter grains most of the month. A few fields emerged in the northern Great Plains before mid-month, but frigid temperatures virtually halted emergence after mid-month. In the central Great Plains and Corn Belt, brief periods of warm weather and adequate moisture supplies aided germination and emergence. Frequent rains, some heavy, erased moisture shortages and promoted germination and growth in the lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent parts of the southern Great plains and Southeast. Soil moisture shortages hindered germination, emergence, and growth of winter grains on the Atlantic Coastal Plains until soaking rains eased dryness after mid-month. In California and the Pacific Northwest, the cold weather suppressed growth of winter grains, but moisture supplies were mostly adequate to support development. The Nation's corn harvest neared completion more than 1 week ahead of normal, with 95 percent of the crop out of the fields by November 12. However, harvest slipped slightly behind last year's fast pace, as increasing storage shortages and occasional rain delays limited progress. Harvest remained active in the Great Lakes region and eastern Corn Belt during the first half of the month. In Michigan, growers harvested more than one-third of their crop during the first 2 weeks of the month. Harvest advanced ahead of normal in Ohio and Wisconsin, where growers harvested 10 and 12 percent of their crop, respectively, during the week ending November 12. Harvest fell well behind normal in North Dakota, where an early-month mixture of wintery precipitation delayed progress. Harvest progressed well behind normal in Pennsylvania also. The harvest season ended ahead of normal in Kentucky and North Carolina. The cotton harvest was about 1 week ahead of last year and the 5-year average when the month began, but rain and frozen precipitation limited progress, especially before mid-month. Harvest progressed with few delays on the High Plains and gradually accelerated elsewhere in the Great Plains and interior Mississippi Delta after mid-month, as soils and cotton bolls slowly dried. Harvest progress remained ahead of normal in Oklahoma, but lagged throughout the month in Texas. Dry weather aided early-month harvest progress on the Atlantic Coastal Plains, where Virginia and North Carolina growers, respectively, picked 27 and 20 percent of their crop during the week ended November 12. The harvest pace was slower in Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina, but progress remained ahead of normal throughout the month. On November 26, the crop was 85 percent harvested, equal to last year and the 5-year average. Picking progressed ahead of normal in the Southwest. Soybean harvest was 95 percent complete on November 5, slightly behind last year's pace, but ahead of the 92-percent average for this date. Harvest rapidly progressed in Michigan, but very little acreage remained to be harvested in the rest of the Corn Belt. Harvest remained active in Arkansas, despite brief rain delays. Dry weather aided harvest progress on the Atlantic Coastal Plains. The sorghum crop was 94 percent harvested on November 5, more than 1 week ahead of last year's progress and about 3 weeks ahead of the average for that date. Harvest was active on the High Plains, especially in Colorado and New Mexico. Rain hindered harvest progress in Oklahoma and Texas until after mid-month. The sugar beet crop was 98 percent harvested in the major sugar beet-producing States by November 12. Dry weather aided rapid harvest progress in Idaho and Michigan through the first half of the month. Rain interfered with the sugarcane harvest along the western Gulf Coast, but nearly ideal weather aided harvest progress in Florida. The sunflower harvest progressed to 92 percent complete on November 26. Harvest slowly advanced in Colorado, Kansas, and North Dakota due to a combination of rain and snow. The peanut crop was 93 percent harvested on November 26, compared with 96 percent on that date last year. In Texas, harvest continued on the High Plains, but remained stalled in other areas due to wet soils. Wet weather also hindered progress in Oklahoma. In the Southeast, growers completed the harvest, despite occasional rain delays. Harvest neared completion ahead of normal along the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.3 million acres, is up 1 percent from last year, but down 20,000 acres from the November estimate. American-Pima harvested acreage, at 172,000 acres, is down 40 percent from last year. The Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia) experienced dry weather throughout most of November. All States, except Virginia, maintained a harvest pace which exceeded their 5-year average; however, rains during the last week of November resulted in some brief delays to completing harvest. Alabama producers harvested 96 percent of their cotton acreage by November 26, compared to 94 percent on average. On this same date, Georgia reported 86 percent of their acreage harvested, 4 percentage points ahead of average. North Carolina was 6 points ahead of its 5-year average harvest pace and reported 88 percent completed as of November 26. South Carolina reported 92 percent complete on November 26, five points ahead of average. Virginia harvest progressed rapidly during November. Harvest activities had been slow due to cool weather throughout the growing season, which resulted in a slow maturing crop. As of November 26, Virginia reported 84 percent of its cotton acreage harvested, exactly the same as the 5-year average. Harvest neared completion in the Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) at or near record pace. Louisiana growers completed harvest prior to November 1, while the other Delta States had well over 90 percent or their acreage harvested before November. Rains during November delayed the completion of harvest in these States; however, by November 21, all five Delta States had completed harvest. Data from objective yield surveys show boll weights in Arkansas were ranked sixth in the last 10 years. Louisiana's weight was ranked seventh since 1991, while Mississippi's weight was ranked ninth. Cotton harvest in the Southwestern States (Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) progressed slowly during November due to rain and high humidity. Quality and yields were adversely affected by the rainfall. Despite the delays, Oklahoma remained ahead of the 5-year average harvest pace. Texas, which began the harvest season ahead of average, had fallen off pace by mid-November. On November 26, Texas reported 70 percent of its cotton acreage harvested, compared to the 5-year average of 76 percent. Oklahoma reported 81 percent of its acreage harvested by November 26, ten percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Cotton objective yield data indicate Texas' boll weights are ranked ninth in the past ten years. Harvest progressed ahead of the 5-year average in California and Arizona throughout the month of November, despite rains during the first half of the month. As of November 26, Arizona reported 88 percent of its upland cotton acreage harvested. This was 5 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. California reported 92 percent of their acreage harvested as of November 26, four percentage points ahead of average. Although the rains had only minimal delays on harvest activities, quality factors were diminished in some areas. Data from objective yield plots indicate California's boll weights ranked ninth since 1991. American-Pima production is forecast at 409,800 bales, down 6,000 bales from the November forecast, and down 39 percent from last year's output. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,144 pounds per harvested acre, 16 pounds above the last year's record setting yield. Texas' production is up 4,000 bales from the November forecast, while California's production is down 10,000 bales. California harvest was virtually complete by the beginning of December; however, nearly one-third of crop remained to be ginned. All cotton ginnings totaled 13,657,000 running bales prior to December 1, compared with 13,379,100 running bales ginned prior to the same date last year and 11,309,550 running bales in 1998. Burley Tobacco: U.S. burley tobacco production for 2000 is forecast at 410 million pounds, down 2 percent from the November 1 forecast and 26 percent below 1999. Yield for 2000 is expected to average 2,041 pounds per acre, 32 pounds less than the November 1 forecast but 212 pounds above a year ago. Area for harvest in 2000 is forecast at 201,000 acres, unchanged from the November 1 forecast but down 34 percent from 1999. Burley auction markets opened on November 20. The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service reports that as of December 7, total burley tobacco sales for the season totaled 142.8 million pounds. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 4.38 million pounds for November, 4 percent more than October and 23 percent higher than November 1999. Crop area totaled 2,720 acres, virtually unchanged from last month but 15 percent lower than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling 1,585 acres, was up slightly from October but 1 percent lower than last November. The increased production resulted from improved yields compared to a year ago, as harvested acreage actually declined from November 1999. Production from virus resistant varieties, along with other strategies to combat the papaya ringspot virus, have boosted yields for most of the year. November weather turned wintery, with torrential rainfall (2 to 3 feet in a 24-hour period) in some major growing areas on Hawaii island early in the month. In spite of the heavy rain, damage to orchards was light. However, the very wet, moist conditions following the storm prompted spray programs to control disease outbreaks, primarily phytophthora. Weather during the remainder of the month was variable with a mixture of sunshine and showers. Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is estimated at 26.4 million cwt for 2000, down 21 percent from 1999 and 13 percent below two years ago for comparable States. Harvested acres are estimated at 1.61 million acres, 15 percent below last year and down 16 percent from 1998 for comparable States. Comparable States can be calculated by subtracting South Dakota from all 2000 estimates and subtracting New Mexico from all 1998 and 1999 estimates. Production is down in 2000 for all estimating States except Montana, Oregon, and Wisconsin. Production for all classes except for garbanzo is below 1999. Pinto and navy, the two largest varieties, decreased 2 percent and 35 percent, respectively from 1999. Production in North Dakota is estimated at 7.61 million cwt, 8 percent below 1999 and down 22 percent from two years ago. Average yield, at 1,450 pounds per acre, is unchanged from last year but 70 pounds above 1998. Production increases in pinto, garbanzo, and "other" classes were more than offset by production declines in black, dark red kidney, navy, and pink classes. Extreme rainfall during June in the eastern half of the State flooded many fields which contributed to larger than normal abandonment. Production in Minnesota, at 2.40 million cwt, is 6 percent below last year and 5 percent less than 1998. In Michigan production is estimated at 4.13 million cwt, 44 percent below last year and down 7 percent from 1998. Average yield, at 1,500 pounds per acre, is down 600 pounds from last year's record high but the same as 1998. Production decreases in black, cranberry, light red kidney, navy, and small red classes more than offset production increases in pinto, dark red kidney, and "other" classes. Excessive rain and standing water at the end of July and cool, wet conditions in September reduced yields and slowed crop development. Nebraska's production is estimated at 3.23 million cwt, down 14 percent from 1999 and 12 percent below two years ago. Average yield in Nebraska is estimated at 2,070 pounds per acre. This is the highest yield since 1986 when the yield averaged 2,100 pounds per acre. Production in Colorado, at 1.98 million cwt, is 28 percent below last year and 31 percent under 1998. In Idaho, production is estimated at 1.72 million cwt, down 19 percent from both 1999 and 1998. Average yield, at 1,950 pounds per acre, is 100 pounds below last year. Hot temperatures during critical crop development stages lowered dry bean yields. Production in California is estimated at 2.02 million cwt, 18 percent below 1999 but 30 percent above two years ago. Harvest went well in California, with good quality reported. Wet weather in spring and early summer limited dry bean planting in New York. Heat and drought conditions during the summer and early fall followed by heavy continuous rain in late fall adversely affected yields in Texas. Extremely dry weather also affected yields in Utah. In Wyoming, production was lowered due to a freeze and snow in mid-September. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2000-01 grapefruit crop for the United States remains at 2.65 million tons, down 4 percent from last season but up 5 percent from the 1998-99 season. The Florida grapefruit forecast is 50.0 million boxes (2.13 million tons), unchanged from October but 6 percent lower than the previous season. The all white grapefruit forecast, which includes seedless and seedy varieties, remains at 20.0 million boxes (850,000 tons). If realized, the crop size will be down 4 percent from last season. The colored seedless utilization is forecast at 30.0 million boxes (1.28 million tons), the same as in October but 6 percent less than the previous season. Even though the weather during the last two months has been exceptionally dry, below average temperatures and the extensive use of irrigation appear to have produced offsetting effects. Although sizes are smaller than anticipated, droppage is at the lowest level of the 10-year series. Forecasts for Arizona, California, and Texas are carried forward from October. Tangelos: Florida's 2000-01 tangelo forecast is unchanged from October's 2.10 million boxes (94,500 tons) but is 5 percent less than last season's utilized production. If realized, it will be the smallest tangelo crop since the 1968-69 season. Fruit size is well below the average of the past 10 seasons. Tangerines: The 2000-01 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 406,000 tons, unchanged from the October 1 forecast, but down 10 percent from last season's record high utilization of 451,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is continued at 6.30 million boxes (299,000 tons), down 10 percent from the record high use of 7.00 million boxes (333,000 tons) last season. The harvest of Fallglo and Robinson tangerines is almost complete, while the harvest of Sunburst, the predominate variety, is well underway. The Dancy and late season Honey harvests have not started. Arizona and California forecasts are carried forward from the October forecast. Temples: Florida's 2000-01 Temple forecast is 1.80 million boxes (81,000 tons), unchanged from October. If realized, it will be 8 percent lower than the 1.95 million boxes (88,000 tons) recorded last season but equal to the utilization from the 1998-99 season. Average fruit size continues to be at the smallest level in the past 10 seasons. K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2000-01 remains at 60,000 boxes (2,700 tons), 50,000 boxes fewer than last season, but 20,000 boxes more than the record low usage during the 1997-98 season. Florida Citrus: The month of November was one of the driest on record for Florida's citrus belt. Growers and caretakers irrigated around the clock in most areas to maintain good tree condition and promote fruit growth. Lakes, ponds, and water reservoirs are at very low levels and in some locations, completely dry. Most early and midseason fruit have very good on-tree color. Fresh fruit packinghouses are shipping navel and mid-season oranges, white and colored grapefruit, tangerines, tangelos, and K-Early Citrus fruit. Most processing plants are open and receiving field-run fruit and packinghouse eliminations. Caretakers are cutting cover crops prior to harvesting and as an aid in fire protection. Limited clean-up spraying is occurring on late season crops grown for fresh use. Texas Citrus: Grapefruit and early season orange picking are progressing at a normal pace with about one quarter of the crop harvested. Fruit quality has been good, but size of fruit has been smaller than expected. Recent rains received in the Valley should promote fruit size. California Citrus: Picking of old crop Valencia oranges was completed in November and the harvest of new crop navel oranges gathered momentum. Color and maturity have been good. Picking of lemons and grapefruit was active in southern California. Tangerine harvest was also active in November. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: By the end of November, the harvests of many crops were completed. Growers were pruning, removing trees, and planting cover crops. Other activities included fumigating the ground for new settings of peach, prune, walnut, and almond trees. Kiwifruit and persimmon harvests were active in November and picking of grapes for fresh and wine uses was winding down. Olive and pecan harvests were also near completion by month's end. Pecans: The December 1 forecast for 2000 pecan production is 209 million pounds (in-shell basis), down 3 percent from the October 1 forecast and 48 percent below last year's record high crop. The expected alternate bearing cycle has combined with unfavorable weather conditions resulting in the sharply lower crop size. Improved varieties are expected to make up 166 million pounds, or 79 percent of the total, while the Native and seedling varieties make up the balance. The Georgia forecast remained at 80.0 million pounds, 33 percent lower than 1999's record high crop. Most of the decrease is related to the alternate bearing cycle. This is also the third consecutive year with drought conditions. About 70 percent of the Georgia harvest was completed as of December 1. New Mexico's forecast also remained steady at 35.0 million pounds, 33 percent below last year. Slightly over 25 percent of the crop had been harvested by December 1. The Texas production forecast is 30.0 million pounds, unchanged from the October 1 forecast but still 67 percent below the 1999 production. Texas harvest was about half completed as of December 1. The Oklahoma production forecast was lowered to 3.00 million pounds, down 5.00 million pounds from the October forecast and only 5 percent of the 1999 production. Much of the decrease is due to the alternate bearing cycle, which is especially prevalent with Native and seedling trees. The crop has also been plagued by poor weather conditions. Virtually no rain was received early in the season, then a freeze was received in early October, followed by heavy rains in late October. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 36.1 million tons, 2 percent above the previous record of 35.3 million tons set last year and 1 percent above the November forecast. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest a record high 1.03 million acres for sugar and seed during the 2000 crop year, 3 percent more than last year's final harvested acres. Yield is forecast at 35.1 tons per acre, 0.4 ton above the November forecast. The yield and production increases were due to a higher forecasted yield and production in Florida. Louisiana growers expect to harvest a record high 490,000 acres. In Florida, expected acres for harvest are 1 percent below last year's level. Harvest continued with few delays in Florida due to nearly ideal weather. Heavy rains periodically interrupted the harvest pace in Louisiana, Texas, and Hawaii during the first half of the month, but drier weather aided harvest progress after mid-month. Coffee: Hawaii coffee production is estimated at 9.10 million pounds (parchment basis) for the 2000-01 season, down 9 percent from the previous season. Harvested acreage is estimated at a record high 6,800 acres, up 6 percent from the 1999-2000 season. Coffee production from the island of Hawaii, including the Kona districts, is down from the 1999-2000 season. Relatively dry weather hampered yields on non-irrigated fields. Irrigated fields, however, are expected to have good yields. Harvest started later than usual and the size of the beans is larger this season. The combined production from the islands of Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai is also down. These islands are also experiencing a later than usual harvest and improved bean quality. Reliability of December 1 Crop Production Forecast Survey Procedures: Objective yield surveys were conducted to gather information on expected yields as of December 1. The objective yield surveys for cotton were conducted in producing States that usually account for approximately 98 percent of the U.S. production. At crop maturity, the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The objective yield survey for oranges for the December 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield estimates for cotton and State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. For cotton, reports from cotton ginners in each State were also considered. For oranges, reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were used for setting estimates. The December 1 orange production forecasts for these three States are carried forward from October. Each cotton State Statistical Office and Florida, for oranges, submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published December 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. For cotton, a new forecast will be made in January followed by end-of-season estimates in May. At the end of the marketing year, administrative records are reviewed and revisions are made, if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made, if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate. For oranges, the December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End of year estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 cotton production forecast is 1.8 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current cotton production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 1.8 percent. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.0 percent. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 orange production forecast is 12.8 percent. However, if you exclude the seven freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.7 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 12.8 percent or 4.7 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 22.1 percent or 8.3 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the December 1 cotton forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 205,000 bales, ranging from 26,000 to 479,000 bales. The December 1 forecast for cotton has been below the final estimate 11 times and above 9 times. Changes between the December 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 755,000 tons (361,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 4,000 tons to 2.39 million tons (5,000 tons to 868,000 tons, excluding freezes). The December 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 7 times and above 6 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the December 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Brad Parks, Head (202) 720-2127 Rhonda Brandt - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Roy Karkosh - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-3250 Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4488 Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270 Steve Gunn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-4488 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. on January 10, 2001. 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