Cr Pr 2-2 (1-01) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 10, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Cotton Production Down 1 Percent from December All cotton production is forecast at 17.2 million bales, down 1 percent from last month but up 1 percent from 1999. Yield is expected to average 631 pounds per harvested acre, up 12 pounds from last month. The increase in yield is the result of a reduction in harvested acreage. The most significant production change indicated by ginnings and survey data is a decrease of 150,000 bales of upland cotton in Texas. Fields continue to be abandoned due to the extremely dry weather throughout the growing season, coupled with poor harvest conditions in the fall. The U.S. all orange January 1 forecast of the 2000-01 crop is 12.6 million tons, virtually unchanged from December's forecast but 4 percent less than last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is 229 million boxes (10.3 million tons), unchanged from the December forecast but 2 percent less than the 1999-2000 crop year. This forecast does not reflect any effects of the freezing temperatures that occurred in parts of Florida's citrus belt the last few days of December and the first week of January. All surveys used for this forecast were conducted before the freezing temperatures arrived. The early and midseason orange forecast remained at 127 million boxes (5.72 million tons), 5 percent lower than the previous season. Record low droppage rates and the smallest fruit size in the past ten years contributed to the forecast. Approximately 38 percent of the crop has been harvested. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 102 million boxes (4.59 million tons), is unchanged from December but is 3 percent higher than last season's final utilization. The Valencias also have smaller fruit size and the lowest droppage rates in recent history. The all orange forecast for California, at 59.0 million boxes (2.21 million tons), is the same as projected in October but down 12 percent from the previous season. California's Navel orange harvest is 25 percent complete. The number of fruit is less than last season, but the fruit size is larger than a year ago. The forecast of all oranges in Texas is 2.10 million boxes (89,000 tons), an increase of 5 percent from the initial forecast in October. If realized, it will be 21 percent higher than last season. Arizona's all orange forecast remains at 1.05 million boxes (40,000 tons) but is 5 percent less than last season's utilization. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is unchanged at 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, virtually the same as last season's yield. The early and midseason portion is projected to yield 1.51 gallons per box and the late season Valencia oranges are at 1.62 gallons. These yields are considerably behind the all time records set during the 1998-99 season when the all orange yield was 1.63 gallons, the early-midseason varieties yielded 1.58 gallons, and the Valencias yielded 1.71 gallons per box. The pounds solids per box, pounds of unfinished juice, and the Brix are all considerably ahead of last year's off-bloom fruit. This year's fruit are mostly smaller than average size, which generally produce more juice per 90 pound box. These projections of yield are based on the assumption that harvest patterns and utilization by the processors will be similar to the past several seasons. This report was approved on January 10, 2001. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Keith J. Collins Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Frederic A. Vogel Contents Page Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Hay Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 Cotton: Area Planted and Harvested by Type, State, and United States, 1998-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Type : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Upland : AL : 495.0 565.0 590.0 475.0 561.0 530.0 AZ : 250.0 270.0 280.0 248.0 269.0 278.0 AR : 920.0 970.0 960.0 900.0 960.0 950.0 CA : 650.0 610.0 775.0 620.0 605.0 770.0 FL : 89.0 107.0 130.0 80.0 106.0 106.0 GA : 1,370.0 1,470.0 1,500.0 1,280.0 1,300.0 1,350.0 KS : 17.0 33.0 40.0 16.5 28.0 37.0 LA : 535.0 615.0 710.0 525.0 610.0 695.0 MS : 950.0 1,200.0 1,300.0 940.0 1,180.0 1,280.0 MO : 370.0 380.0 400.0 357.0 377.0 388.0 NM : 66.3 84.0 90.0 60.3 79.0 85.0 NC : 710.0 880.0 930.0 705.0 825.0 925.0 OK : 160.0 240.0 280.0 120.0 150.0 170.0 SC : 290.0 330.0 300.0 286.0 315.0 290.0 TN : 450.0 570.0 570.0 445.0 565.0 565.0 TX : 5,650.0 6,150.0 6,400.0 3,300.0 5,100.0 4,400.0 VA : 92.0 110.0 110.0 91.0 108.0 108.0 : US : 13,064.3 14,584.0 15,365.0 10,448.8 13,138.0 12,927.0 : Amer-Pima : AZ : 15.9 9.0 6.0 15.5 8.9 6.0 CA : 200.0 240.0 145.0 180.0 239.0 144.0 NM : 7.3 7.5 4.5 7.3 7.0 4.5 TX : 105.0 33.0 16.0 32.0 32.0 16.0 : US : 328.2 289.5 171.5 234.8 286.9 170.5 : All : AL : 495.0 565.0 590.0 475.0 561.0 530.0 AZ : 265.9 279.0 286.0 263.5 277.9 284.0 AR : 920.0 970.0 960.0 900.0 960.0 950.0 CA : 850.0 850.0 920.0 800.0 844.0 914.0 FL : 89.0 107.0 130.0 80.0 106.0 106.0 GA : 1,370.0 1,470.0 1,500.0 1,280.0 1,300.0 1,350.0 KS : 17.0 33.0 40.0 16.5 28.0 37.0 LA : 535.0 615.0 710.0 525.0 610.0 695.0 MS : 950.0 1,200.0 1,300.0 940.0 1,180.0 1,280.0 MO : 370.0 380.0 400.0 357.0 377.0 388.0 NM : 73.6 91.5 94.5 67.6 86.0 89.5 NC : 710.0 880.0 930.0 705.0 825.0 925.0 OK : 160.0 240.0 280.0 120.0 150.0 170.0 SC : 290.0 330.0 300.0 286.0 315.0 290.0 TN : 450.0 570.0 570.0 445.0 565.0 565.0 TX : 5,755.0 6,183.0 6,416.0 3,332.0 5,132.0 4,416.0 VA : 92.0 110.0 110.0 91.0 108.0 108.0 : US : 13,392.5 14,873.5 15,536.5 10,683.6 13,424.9 13,097.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: Yield and Production by Type, State, and United States, 1998-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Type : Yield : Production 1/ and :-------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- Pounds -------- --------- 1,000 Bales 2/ --------- : Upland : AL : 559 535 489 553.0 625.0 540.0 AZ : 1,177 1,278 1,312 608.0 716.0 760.0 AR : 645 714 733 1,209.0 1,428.0 1,450.0 CA : 887 1,254 1,371 1,146.0 1,580.0 2,200.0 FL : 489 516 453 81.5 114.0 100.0 GA : 578 579 583 1,542.0 1,567.0 1,640.0 KS : 404 375 298 13.9 21.9 23.0 LA : 586 709 628 641.0 901.0 910.0 MS : 737 704 649 1,444.0 1,731.0 1,730.0 MO : 471 601 668 350.0 472.0 540.0 NM : 640 662 734 80.4 109.0 130.0 NC : 699 475 747 1,026.0 816.0 1,440.0 OK : 560 461 438 140.0 144.0 155.0 SC : 587 428 629 350.0 281.0 380.0 TN : 589 505 607 546.0 595.0 715.0 TX : 524 475 431 3,600.0 5,050.0 3,950.0 VA : 765 635 707 145.1 142.8 159.0 : US : 619 595 625 13,475.9 16,293.7 16,822.0 : Amer-Pima : AZ : 830 879 824 26.8 16.3 10.3 CA : 941 1,210 1,167 352.8 602.7 350.0 NM : 658 734 768 10.0 10.7 7.2 TX : 791 669 900 52.7 44.6 30.0 : US : 904 1,128 1,119 442.3 674.3 397.5 : All : AL : 559 535 489 553.0 625.0 540.0 AZ : 1,156 1,265 1,302 634.8 732.3 770.3 AR : 645 714 733 1,209.0 1,428.0 1,450.0 CA : 899 1,241 1,339 1,498.8 2,182.7 2,550.0 FL : 489 516 453 81.5 114.0 100.0 GA : 578 579 583 1,542.0 1,567.0 1,640.0 KS : 404 375 298 13.9 21.9 23.0 LA : 586 709 628 641.0 901.0 910.0 MS : 737 704 649 1,444.0 1,731.0 1,730.0 MO : 471 601 668 350.0 472.0 540.0 NM : 642 668 736 90.4 119.7 137.2 NC : 699 475 747 1,026.0 816.0 1,440.0 OK : 560 461 438 140.0 144.0 155.0 SC : 587 428 629 350.0 281.0 380.0 TN : 589 505 607 546.0 595.0 715.0 TX : 526 477 433 3,652.7 5,094.6 3,980.0 VA : 765 635 707 145.1 142.8 159.0 : US : 625 607 631 13,918.2 16,968.0 17,219.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-lb. net weight bales. Cottonseed: Production by State and United States, 1998-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : AL : 192.0 225.0 191.0 AZ : 288.0 275.0 300.0 AR : 478.0 552.0 558.0 CA : 544.0 799.0 926.0 FL : 26.0 36.0 35.0 GA : 526.0 546.0 562.0 KS : 5.8 8.0 8.9 LA : 236.0 331.0 333.0 MS : 561.0 667.0 669.0 MO : 135.0 175.0 207.0 NM : 32.6 50.5 51.7 NC : 351.0 278.0 493.0 OK : 54.0 52.0 61.0 SC : 122.0 100.0 133.0 TN : 205.0 223.0 273.0 TX : 1,558.0 1,987.0 1,585.0 VA : 51.0 49.0 52.0 : US : 5,365.4 6,353.5 6,438.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 1999-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :---------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Acres ------ --- Cwt --- 1,000 Cwt : Winter : CA : 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 320 300 2,210 2,880 2,700 FL : 8.2 7.8 8.0 5.0 260 210 1,860 2,080 1,050 : Total : 17.2 16.8 17.0 14.0 292 268 4,070 4,960 3,750 : Spring 1/ : AL 2/ : 280 AZ : 9.0 9.0 280 3,024 2,520 CA : 18.8 18.8 395 7,600 7,426 FL : 22.3 21.5 295 8,820 6,343 Hastings: 17.2 16.5 295 6,930 4,868 Other FL: 5.1 5.0 295 1,890 1,475 NC 3/ : 17.5 17.0 200 3,300 3,400 TX : 9.8 9.3 240 2,303 2,232 : Total : 77.4 75.6 290 25,327 21,921 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2000 Revised. 2/ Spring estimates included with summer starting in 2000. 3/ Summer estimates included with spring starting in 2000. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Nov : 3,205 2,720 1,605 1,585 3,565 4,380 Dec : 3,230 2,695 1,635 1,875 3,340 4,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1998-99, 1999-00 and Forecasted January 1, 2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1998-99 : 1999-00 : 2000-01 : 1998-99 : 1999-00 : 2000-01 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 550 600 500 21 22 19 CA : 21,000 40,000 34,000 787 1,500 1,275 FL : 112,000 134,000 127,000 5,040 6,030 5,715 TX : 1,250 1,540 1,900 53 66 81 US : 134,800 176,140 163,400 5,901 7,618 7,090 Valencia : AZ : 600 500 550 22 19 21 CA : 15,000 27,000 25,000 563 1,013 938 FL : 74,000 99,000 102,000 3,330 4,455 4,590 TX : 180 200 200 8 8 8 US : 89,780 126,700 127,750 3,923 5,495 5,557 All : AZ : 1,150 1,100 1,050 43 41 40 CA : 36,000 67,000 59,000 1,350 2,513 2,213 FL : 186,000 233,000 229,000 8,370 10,485 10,305 TX : 1,430 1,740 2,100 61 74 89 US : 224,580 302,840 291,150 9,824 13,113 12,647 Temples : FL : 1,800 1,950 1,800 81 88 81 Grapefruit : White Seedless 4/ : FL : 17,800 20,900 20,000 757 888 850 Colored Seedless : FL : 28,700 31,900 30,000 1,220 1,356 1,275 Other 4/ : FL : 550 600 23 25 All : AZ : 750 500 600 25 17 20 CA : 7,300 7,000 7,200 244 235 241 FL : 47,050 53,400 50,000 2,000 2,269 2,125 TX : 6,100 5,930 6,500 244 237 260 US : 61,200 66,830 64,300 2,513 2,758 2,646 Tangerines : AZ 5/ : 950 850 800 36 32 30 CA 5/ : 1,500 2,300 2,200 56 86 83 FL : 4,950 7,000 6,200 235 333 295 US : 7,400 10,150 9,200 327 451 408 Lemons : AZ : 3,450 3,100 3,400 131 118 129 CA : 16,200 19,600 21,000 616 745 798 US : 19,650 22,700 24,400 747 863 927 Tangelos : FL : 2,550 2,200 2,100 115 99 95 K-Early Citrus : FL : 80 110 60 4 5 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ "Other" seedy grapefruit estimates discontinued after 1999-2000 crop. Included with white seedless beginning with the 2000-01 crop. 5/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States, December 1 and May 1, 1998-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dec 1 : May 1 State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 1/ : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : AL : 1,213 1,472 1,000 141 202 AZ : 177 184 202 28 27 AR : 1,900 1,900 2,150 260 500 CA : 3,246 2,285 1,954 428 381 CO : 2,807 2,900 1,770 966 690 CT : 77 47 82 13 8 DE : 18 15 29 8 6 FL : 357 550 450 27 80 GA : 1,000 1,245 950 209 240 ID : 3,329 2,617 2,400 777 257 IL : 2,100 1,600 1,700 543 410 IN : 1,775 1,316 1,629 350 290 IA : 4,500 4,700 4,500 1,050 1,150 KS : 6,500 5,800 4,500 1,525 1,400 KY : 4,922 4,006 5,192 913 577 LA : 290 502 415 58 91 ME : 196 138 145 56 23 MD : 333 300 525 76 65 MA : 101 84 108 40 17 MI : 2,093 2,110 2,800 556 1,170 MN : 5,261 5,490 4,446 1,493 1,570 MS : 1,500 1,350 850 200 135 MO : 6,933 5,997 5,392 1,387 1,445 MT : 4,568 4,448 3,168 1,104 1,011 NE : 5,170 4,900 3,500 1,306 1,500 NV : 857 867 801 233 290 NH : 72 65 66 17 11 NJ : 121 109 156 15 28 NM : 450 595 600 170 185 NY : 1,990 1,900 2,280 435 385 NC : 1,189 1,090 1,300 163 255 ND : 4,064 5,291 5,212 545 1,430 OH : 2,558 1,830 3,119 581 430 OK : 3,042 4,200 3,700 507 1,000 OR : 2,159 2,245 1,766 135 128 PA : 2,800 1,700 2,800 730 440 RI : 12 8 11 2 1 SC : 415 410 470 96 88 SD : 9,500 9,500 8,200 2,000 3,100 TN : 3,175 2,655 3,405 635 607 TX : 5,496 6,568 6,660 1,450 2,627 UT : 1,695 1,540 1,350 485 320 VT : 328 229 280 116 60 VA : 1,693 1,883 2,900 417 257 WA : 1,663 1,377 1,303 410 165 WV : 949 524 1,144 150 40 WI : 5,100 5,900 4,800 1,400 3,000 WY : 2,372 2,480 1,550 611 725 : US : 112,066 108,922 103,730 24,817 28,817 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. December Weather Summary The year closed on a very cold note across the eastern half of the Nation, while a milder weather pattern developed from the Rockies westward. Heavy snow and gusty winds frequently accompanied the cold weather in the northern Plains and Midwest, stressing livestock and hampering rural transportation. Major winter storms struck the South just 2 weeks apart, causing electrical and travel disruptions. Parts of Arkansas and Oklahoma were hardest hit by severe ice accumulations. As the cold weather regime deepened, temperatures fell below 32 degrees F in Florida's northern citrus areas on December 20. Slightly more significant freezes affected all but southeastern Florida on December 31 and January 1, adversely affecting some winter vegetables as far south as the Everglades. Monthly temperatures ranged from 8 to 14 degrees F below normal in the Midwest and generally 4 to 12 degrees F below normal on the Plains. Cold weather allowed winter wheat to remain dormant or enter dormancy throughout the Plains, Midwest, and Northwest. An extensive snow cover insulated most of the winter wheat crop from harsh conditions. Somewhat milder conditions prevailed, however, on the central High Plains, where a gap in snow coverage helped to keep temperatures closer to normal. Meanwhile, cool, damp weather slowed or halted winter grain development across the South. In contrast, monthly temperatures averaged up to 5 degrees F above normal in portions of California and the Southwest. Widespread areas of above-normal monthly precipitation were confined to the South-Central States and areas from the Midwest into the Northeast. The return of cold, wet weather to the southern Plains halted the emergence and development of late-planted winter wheat. Meanwhile, unusually dry weather brought renewed drought concerns to the Southeast. The central portion of Florida's peninsula remained especially dry, necessitating increased irrigation for citrus and vegetables. Only light precipitation fell in the Northwest, while little moisture reached California and Arizona. December Agricultural Summary Warm, dry weather aided fieldwork in Texas early in the month, especially on the High Plains, where producers continued to harvest cotton, sorghum, and peanuts. Growers also accelerated seedbed preparations, and wheat and oat seeding resumed in areas that were previously too wet. As mid-month approached, a strong Arctic front crossed Texas, bringing strong winds and freezing temperatures. In central and eastern areas of the State, ice storms downed power lines and damaged peach and pecan trees. The extreme cold had little impact on cotton, sorghum, and peanut harvest activities on the High Plains, but ice accumulations delayed progress in some areas. The harvest season was nearly complete in Texas by mid-month, with most remaining crops unsuitable for harvest. Seedbed preparation and small grain seeding continued through mid-month where possible, but progress steadily slowed due to poor weather and lateness of the planting season. In central Texas, cold weather and saturated soils prohibited planting and hindered crop emergence and growth of early-planted fields. Weather conditions remained favorable for fruit and vegetable harvests in the Rio Grande Valley, where the citrus harvest remained active. The pecan harvest continued, as conditions allowed. Dry weather prevailed in the Southwest, aiding cotton and sugar beet harvests, which were essentially complete by mid-month in California. Growers shredded cotton stalks and disced fields to comply with plow-down requirements. Field preparations continued for the 2001 cotton crop. Alfalfa hay cutting ceased shortly after mid-month in most areas, but some fields were green-chopped for silage. The dry weather also supported seedbed preparation for California's winter forage and small grain seedings, although lack of soil moisture forced some growers to postpone planting. Other growers sowed crops and irrigated fields to aid germination. Warm weather aided growth of early-planted fields, but overcast skies often limited development. California's fruit growers harvested fruit, pruned trees and vines, and applied dormant sprays. Some orchards were irrigated due to moisture shortages. Grapefruit harvest was active in the San Joaquin Valley, and new crop navel orange harvest continued. Lemon picking was active in southern California. Grape harvest for fresh market consumption was nearly complete by mid-month. Winter vegetables thrived, and some were harvested. Fall broccoli and cauliflower harvests continued in the San Joaquin Valley. Green speciality vegetables were in various stages of harvest, but the lettuce harvest slowed. In Florida, topsoil moisture was very short across much of the State, but moisture supplies were mostly adequate to sustain development of small grains and cool season forages in the Panhandle. In the peninsula, producers delayed winter grazing of small grains, as drought halted vegetative growth. Orchard caretakers operated irrigation systems to keep trees in good condition, but new growth was limited. Central Florida received precipitation near the end of the month, but rain amounts varied. Most groves received less than 1 inch of rain, and moisture shortages remained widespread at year's end. Freezing temperatures in northern Florida citrus-producing counties occurred shortly after mid-month. Another cold front brought freezing temperatures into central Florida at the end of the month. Overnight temperatures remained below freezing for several hours in the Florida citrus-producing region, but did not significantly damage citrus trees. However, some new growth may be lost due to the freezing temperatures in areas hit by the lowest temperatures. Vegetable producers ran irrigation equipment to prevent damage to crops due to the cold weather. A mixture of rain and freezing rain substantially boosted moisture supplies across the Southeast, lower Mississippi Valley, and adjacent parts of the southern Great Plains near the end of the month. The freezing rain downed power lines and damaged trees, with the greatest damage centered on Arkansas. In Louisiana, the sugarcane harvest neared completion, despite brief rain delays. Precipitation was scattered and light along the mid-Atlantic Coastal Plains. Most of the northern Great Plains and Corn Belt received enough snow to protect winter wheat from below-normal, sometimes bitter cold, temperatures. However, strong winds drifted snow and left some wheat fields exposed or poorly protected in the northern Great Plains. Cotton: Upland cotton planted acreage is estimated at 15.4 million acres, up 15,000 acres from the June estimate, and up 5 percent from 1999. Harvested acreage at 12.9 million acres, was 2 percent below last year due to above average abandonment in Texas. Producers planted 171,500 acres of American-Pima cotton in 2000, down 41 percent from 1999. The reduction in planted acreage led to a 41 percent decline in harvested acreage, as 170,500 acres of American-Pima cotton were harvested in 2000. Producers in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia) experienced delays in planting cotton during the spring of 2000. Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina were slowed due to extremely dry soils. Conversely, North Carolina and Virginia cotton producers experienced planting delays due to rain and lingering moisture. Moisture shortages persisted in parts of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina throughout most of the growing season. Rains received in some areas quickly evaporated due to hot, dry conditions. The lack of moisture led to the abandonment of some fields. Adequate moisture was received in North Carolina and Virginia; however, abnormally cool temperatures slowed development in some areas. Harvest began in most parts of the region during the middle of September and progressed near average for most of the fall. Virginia and parts of the Carolinas lagged behind average, due to the cool weather which slowed the maturation of the crop. The Delta States' (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) planted 3.94 million acres, a 5 percent increase over last year. Harvested area totaled 3.88 million acres. Planting progressed smoothly throughout most of the region. Dry weather permitted excess moisture to drain from fields and allowed planting to get into full swing by early May. Above normal temperatures stimulated development throughout the season, but resulted in some deterioration of condition. The rapid development of the crop allowed harvest to progress well ahead of the 5-year average. Louisiana growers were finished picking cotton prior to November 1, while the other Delta States had well over 90 percent of their acreage harvested before November. Rains during November delayed the completion of harvest in these States; however, by November 21, all five Delta States had completed harvest. Data from the objective yield surveys show boll weights in Arkansas and Louisiana were ranked seventh in the last 10 years, while Mississippi's weight was ranked ninth. Producers in the Southwestern States (Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) were able to maintain a planting pace on par with the 5-year average, despite combating weather delays. Weather conditions during the second half of May allowed Oklahoma cotton producers to stay well ahead of the 5-year average planting rate. Texas producers managed to maintain pace with average, despite extremely dry conditions and high winds. Hot, dry growing conditions early in the season resulted in development progressing ahead of average throughout most of the region. Most areas received rains during late June, easing moisture concerns that had developed during the month; however, the precipitation came too late for some fields which were plowed under and replanted to alternative crops. Extremely hot temperatures and high winds persisted throughout the remainder of the growing season, leading to depleted soil moisture, deteriorating condition ratings, and abandoned fields. Irrigated crops were also under stress in some areas of the Plains due to available water being exhausted at a rapid rate. Harvest began early due to the rapidly maturing crop and was aided by a light to killing frost in early October; however, progress slowed during November due to rain and high humidity. Quality and yields were adversely affected by the rainfall. Despite the delays, Oklahoma remained ahead of the 5-year average harvest pace. Texas, which began the harvest season ahead of average, had fallen off pace by mid-November. Objective yield survey data indicate Texas' boll weights are ranked sixth in the past ten years. Arizona and California experienced excellent planting conditions throughout the spring of 2000. By mid-May, California planting was virtually complete. Arizona producers had completed their planting by the end of May. The early planting and above average temperatures during June allowed the upland cotton in the West to progress well ahead of average. Irrigation alleviated any concerns associated with dry spells which accompanied the hot temperatures. Mild temperatures during parts of July and August resulted in some delays in crop development, but the early season progress allowed the crop to stay ahead of average. Harvest began on or ahead of normal, despite some rain delays. Although the rains had only minimal delays on harvest activities, quality factors were diminished in some areas. Data from the objective yield plots indicate California's boll weights are ranked ninth since 1991. American-Pima production is forecast at 397,500 bales, down 12,300 bales from the December forecast, and down 41 percent from last year's output. The U.S. yield is estimated at 1,119 pounds per harvested acre, down 25 pounds from last month. California, New Mexico, and Texas all have a lower production than their December forecast, while Arizona's production is unchanged from last month. The San Joaquin Valley began planting American-Pima cotton in late March, but cool weather resulted in some delays and slowed plant development. The crop progessed well, despite more cool weather during late August. Harvest proceeded ahead of average and was virtually complete by the beginning of December. All cotton ginnings totaled 16,097,100 running bales prior to January 1, compared with 15,965,150 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 13,159,700 running bales in 1998. Winter Potatoes: Production of winter potatoes in 2001 is forecast at 3.75 million cwt, down 24 percent from 2000 and 8 percent below 1999. Area for harvest is estimated at 14,000 acres, down 18 percent from a year ago. The average yield is forecast at 268 cwt per acre, 24 cwt below last year. Heavy rains in Florida's Homestead area during December virtually wiped out their winter potato crop. Winter acreage remaining for harvest in Florida is down 37 percent from the previous year. Production on the remaining area for harvest is forecast at half last year's output. In California, winter production this year is expected to be 6 percent below a year ago. Acreage remains the same but the average yield is expected to be down 20 cwt per acre from last winter season. Spring Potatoes: Revised spring potato production, at 21.9 million cwt in 2000, was down 13 percent on a comparable basis from a year earlier but 4 percent above 1998. Final production was down 3 percent from the May 1 forecast. Harvested area totaled 75,600 acres, down 10 percent from comparable estimates in 1999 while the average yield of 290 cwt per acre decreased 10 cwt from last year. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 4.50 million pounds for December, 3 percent more than November and 35 percent higher than December 1999. Area in crop totaled 2,695 acres, 1 percent below last month and 17 percent lower than last year. Harvested area totaled 1,875 acres, 18 percent above the November acreage and 15 percent higher than December 1999. Production from virus resistant varieties, along with other strategies to combat the papaya ringspot virus, have boosted yields for most of the year. Weather conditions throughout December were variable with light showers and generally sunny skies. Soil moisture was adequate in non-irrigated orchards. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2000-01 grapefruit crop for the United States remains at 2.65 million tons, down 4 percent from last season but up 5 percent from the 1998-99 season. The Florida grapefruit forecast is 50.0 million boxes (2.13 million tons), unchanged from the December forecast but 6 percent lower than the previous season. The all white grapefruit forecast, which includes seedless and seedy varieties, remains at 20.0 million boxes (850,000 tons). If realized, the crop size will be down 4 percent from last season. The colored seedless utilization is forecast at 30.0 million boxes (1.28 million tons), the same as the December forecast but 6 percent less than the previous season. Fruit size continues to increase, but remains the smallest in the 10-year series. Loss from droppage is also at the lowest level in the series. The cool, dry weather since November, which has limited the growth in the past months, has also limited fruit droppage. Forecasts for Arizona, California, and Texas remain unchanged from their original October forecasts. In California, there is a lighter fruit set than last season, but size and quality are very good. Texas grapefruit has excellent color, sweetness, and overall quality. In Arizona, grove condition and quality of fruit are good to excellent. Lemons: The 2000-01 lemon forecast for the United States is 927,000 tons, down 1 percent from the initial October forecast. If realized, it will be up 7 percent from last season and 24 percent above the 1998-99 crop. California production is forecast at 21.0 million boxes (798,000 tons), unchanged from October but 7 percent more than the previous season. Harvest is active in all three producing areas of California. Size, quality, and fruit color are good. The Arizona lemon crop is forecast at 3.40 million boxes (129,000 tons), 6 percent below the October forecast but up 10 percent from last season. Fruit quality is good to excellent. Tangelos: Florida's 2000-01 tangelo forecast remains at 2.10 million boxes (94,500 tons) and, if realized, the utilization will be 5 percent less than last season. It will also be the smallest utilization of tangelos recorded since the 1968-69 season. This season's number of bearing trees is down from last year and the average fruit per tree is similar to last season. Tangerines: The 2000-01 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 408,000 tons, up less than 1 percent from December, but down 10 percent from last season's record high utilization of 451,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop decreased to 6.20 million boxes (295,000 tons), 2 percent below the December forecast and 11 percent less than the record high use of 7.00 million boxes (333,000 tons) last season. The harvest of Fallglo and Robinson tangerines is complete, while the harvest of Sunburst and Dancy is active. The late season Honey harvest has not yet started. Fruit size is above average and larger than last December. Droppage, however, has increased substantially from last season and is now closer to the 10-year average. California's forecast of tangerine production is 2.20 million boxes (83,000 tons), up 10 percent from the October forecast but 4 percent below last season. Fruit size and quality have been exceptionally good. The Satsuma harvest is wrapping up and the harvests of Minneolas and Fairchilds are active. The Arizona forecast of tangerine production is 800,000 boxes (30,000 tons), 6 percent below both the October forecast and last season. Harvest is active. Temples: Florida's 2000-01 Temple forecast remains at 1.80 million boxes (81,000 tons), unchanged from December. If realized, it will be 8 percent lower than the 1.95 million boxes (88,000 tons) recorded last season but equal to the utilization from the 1998-99 season. Average fruit size is below last season and close to the minimum size in the 10 season series. Loss from droppage continues to be above last season and the average of the series. K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2000-01 is 60,000 boxes (2,700 tons), unchanged from December but 50,000 boxes fewer than last season. Harvest is approximately 50 percent complete. Florida Citrus: December was a very cold and dry month. The northern parts of the citrus belt experienced below freezing temperatures. Temperatures during the middle of the month were not low enough, however, to cause serious damage to the current fruit crop. Also, most fruit in the northern counties had been harvested before the mid-December cold temperatures arrived. In the coldest locations where there was still fruit on the trees, harvesting crews rapidly moved any cold-damaged fruit to the processors. There has been limited tree damage. A few of the coldest areas may have leaf drop from the frost. There were very few rains during the month. Most of the growers and caretakers have been irrigating to maintain good tree condition and to improve fruit size. Lakes, ponds, and water reservoirs are at very low levels with some too dry for irrigation use. Harvesting crews have been very active. By the end of the month, some juice plants were overloaded with fruit and had to limit the number of loads delivered from the groves. Most of the fresh fruit packinghouses were very busy packing for the Christmas holidays. Caretakers have been cutting cover crops prior to harvest and for fire protection. Some hedging and topping of harvested groves continued in the coastal and southern counties. Texas Citrus: Harvest is well underway for grapefruit and oranges with about a third of the crop picked by the end of December. The color, sweetness, and overall quality are excellent for both grapefruit and oranges. California Citrus: Precipitation has been well below normal in the citrus growing areas. Rain is needed to improve fruit size. Approximately one-fourth of the navel orange crop has been picked and quality is good. However, growers are concerned about puff and crease. The new Valencia orange crop is maturing well and has a good set. Picking should begin in the desert area in late February. Grapefruit harvest was active in the desert area. Fruit size and quality are good. Picking of lemons was active in all lemon growing areas. For the most part, lemons showed good quality, size, and color. In the Central Valley, harvest of Satsuma tangerines was near completion. Minneola and Fairchild tangerines are currently being picked. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Growers were busy with normal winter cultural activities during December such as weed control, fertilizing, and pruning. Growers also had to irrigate orchards due to the lack of precipitation. Cold nights were beneficial for the dormancy of fruit trees and grape vines. Preparation for replanting of trees was also active. Harvest of pecans, kiwifruit, and persimmons continued. Picking of table grapes and apples was completed. Digging of strawberry nursery plants is underway. Hay Stocks on Farm: Stocks of all hay on farms December 1, 2000 totaled 104 million tons, 5 percent below the stocks on farms December 1, 1999. Stocks decreases occurred in 23 of the 48 contiguous States. The drought conditions in the southern States, from Louisiana to Florida, and the Great Plains States, played a major role in their stocks decreases from a year ago. Colorado, Wyoming, and Mississippi had the largest percentage of stocks decreases, down 39, 38, and 37 percent, respectively, from last December. The States along the Ohio Valley, and eastward, all saw increases in stocks as hay production rebounded from the 1999 drought. Hay stocks in Pennsylvania were up 65 percent, and 118 percent in West Virginia. Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The objective yield survey for oranges for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End of year estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 8.7 percent. However, if you exclude the seven freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.6 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 8.7 percent or 4.6 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 15.0 percent or 8.2 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 571,000 tons (383,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 33,000 tons to 1.89 million tons (33,000 tons to 739,000 tons, excluding freezes). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 5 times and above 15 times (below 4 times and above 9 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Brad Parks, Head (202) 720-2127 Rhonda Brandt - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Roy Karkosh - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-3250 Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4488 Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270 Steve Gunn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-4488 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture (202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. on February 8, 2001. 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