Cr Pr 2-2 (2-01) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 8, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Orange Production Down 2 Percent from January The U.S. all orange February 1 forecast of the 2000-01 crop is 12.4 million tons, down 2 percent from January's forecast and 6 percent less than last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is 223 million boxes (10.0 million tons), a decrease of 3 percent from the January forecast and 4 percent less than the 1999-2000 final utilization. The early and midseason orange forecast remains at 127 million boxes (5.72 million tons), 5 percent lower than the previous season. Although droppage has increased following the cold weather, harvesters are moving into these groves quickly to minimize loss of early and midseason variety oranges. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 96.0 million boxes (4.32 million tons), is down 6 percent from January and is 3 percent lower than last season's final utilization. Because of the below average temperatures and precipitation all winter, fruit sizes have been and continue to be below average. Droppage of fruit was at record low levels before the cold weather but now has increased. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts. Although several mornings of below freezing temperatures occurred in many groves prior to January, the coldest morning affecting nearly all citrus producing areas was on January 5. Minimum temperatures were recorded for long enough durations to indicate fruit damage and loss would occur. But because of the below normal temperatures since November and the extensive use of irrigation to mitigate drought conditions and protect against cold weather, fruit damage was limited. A fruit cut survey conducted approximately two weeks after the coldest weather indicated very little drying of fruit. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is decreased from 1.55 to 1.54 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The early and midseason portion remains at 1.51 gallons per box, but the late season Valencia portion is decreased from 1.62 to 1.60 gallons per box. Although pounds of solids per box continues to increase, Valencia pounds of juice per box has decreased slightly, indicating some drying of fruit from the cold weather. This report was approved on February 8, 2001. Secretary of Agriculture Ann M. Veneman Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Frederic A. Vogel Contents Page California Nut Crops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Pecans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Sugarcane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 1999-2000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 443.0 437.0 35.0 37.0 15,505 16,169 HI 2/ : 35.4 32.6 81.7 80.7 2,892 2,631 LA 2/ : 435.0 465.0 32.7 30.0 14,225 13,950 TX 2/ : 28.0 46.0 34.1 37.7 955 1,734 : US : 941.4 980.6 35.7 35.2 33,577 34,484 : For Seed : FL : 17.0 18.0 35.0 39.0 595 702 HI 2/ : 1.9 2.8 35.8 34.0 68 95 LA 2/ : 30.0 35.0 32.7 30.0 981 1,050 TX 2/ : 3.0 0.6 26.0 25.0 78 15 : US : 51.9 56.4 33.2 33.0 1,722 1,862 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 460.0 455.0 35.0 37.1 16,100 16,871 HI 2/ : 37.3 35.4 79.4 77.0 2,960 2,726 LA 2/ : 465.0 500.0 32.7 30.0 15,206 15,000 TX 2/ : 31.0 46.6 33.3 37.5 1,033 1,749 : US : 993.3 1,037.0 35.5 35.0 35,299 36,346 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Current estimates carried forward from previous forecast. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2000-01 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Dec : 2,695 1,875 4,500 Jan : 3,280 2,690 1,635 1,870 3,175 4,835 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1998-99, 1999-00 and Forecasted February 1, 2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1998-99 : 1999-00 : 2000-01 : 1998-99 : 1999-00 : 2000-01 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 550 600 500 21 22 19 CA 4/ : 21,000 40,000 34,000 787 1,500 1,275 FL : 112,000 134,000 127,000 5,040 6,030 5,715 TX 4/ : 1,250 1,540 1,900 53 66 81 US : 134,800 176,140 163,400 5,901 7,618 7,090 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 600 500 550 22 19 21 CA 4/ : 15,000 27,000 25,000 563 1,013 938 FL : 74,000 99,000 96,000 3,330 4,455 4,320 TX 4/ : 180 200 200 8 8 8 US : 89,780 126,700 121,750 3,923 5,495 5,287 All : AZ 4/ : 1,150 1,100 1,050 43 41 40 CA 4/ : 36,000 67,000 59,000 1,350 2,513 2,213 FL : 186,000 233,000 223,000 8,370 10,485 10,035 TX 4/ : 1,430 1,740 2,100 61 74 89 US : 224,580 302,840 285,150 9,824 13,113 12,377 Temples : FL : 1,800 1,950 1,800 81 88 81 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 17,800 20,900 20,000 757 888 850 Colored Seedless : FL : 28,700 31,900 29,000 1,220 1,356 1,233 Other 5/ : FL : 550 600 23 25 All : AZ 4/ : 750 500 600 25 17 20 CA 4/ : 7,300 7,000 7,200 244 235 241 FL : 47,050 53,400 49,000 2,000 2,269 2,083 TX 4/ : 6,100 5,930 6,500 244 237 260 US : 61,200 66,830 63,300 2,513 2,758 2,604 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 950 850 800 36 32 30 CA 4/ 6/ : 1,500 2,300 2,200 56 86 83 FL : 4,950 7,000 5,600 235 333 266 US : 7,400 10,150 8,600 327 451 379 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,450 3,100 3,400 131 118 129 CA : 16,200 19,600 21,000 616 745 798 US : 19,650 22,700 24,400 747 863 927 Tangelos : FL : 2,550 2,200 2,100 115 99 95 K-Early Citrus : FL : 80 110 40 4 5 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5/ "Other" seedy grapefruit estimates discontinued after 1999-2000 crop. Included with white seedless beginning with the 2000-01 crop. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Pecans: Utilized Production and Price by Variety, State, and United States, 1998-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Variety : Utilized Production : Price per Pound and :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- --------- Dollars --------- : Improved : Varieties 1/ : AL : 3,500 7,000 10,000 0.954 0.850 0.950 AZ : 13,000 22,800 14,000 1.590 1.190 1.250 AR : 300 1,500 900 1.150 0.620 1.250 CA : 1,700 1,900 2,800 1.660 1.270 1.380 FL : 200 1,100 1,400 1.100 0.900 1.050 GA : 35,000 85,000 65,000 1.240 0.890 1.130 LA : 3,000 4,000 3,000 1.000 1.000 1.200 MS : 800 3,500 1,800 0.870 0.900 0.995 NM : 32,000 52,000 32,000 1.490 1.200 1.300 NC : 1,500 800 2,300 1.000 1.100 1.150 OK : 200 3,000 500 1.220 0.880 1.400 SC : 800 1,800 1,700 1.240 0.840 1.140 TX : 20,000 35,000 22,000 1.300 1.000 1.500 : US : 112,000 219,400 157,400 1.350 1.010 1.220 : Native and : Seedling : AL : 1,500 6,000 5,000 0.674 0.500 0.650 AR : 250 2,300 400 0.880 0.570 0.800 FL : 1,100 2,600 1,200 0.750 0.650 0.600 GA : 5,000 35,000 15,000 1.110 0.590 0.790 KS : 50 5,000 400 0.880 0.680 1.300 LA : 13,000 18,000 14,000 0.600 0.550 0.550 MS : 400 1,500 1,200 0.660 0.550 0.660 NC : 1,000 400 700 0.800 0.750 0.800 OK : 1,800 60,000 2,500 0.680 0.550 0.800 SC : 300 900 800 1.020 0.750 0.850 TX : 10,000 55,000 8,000 0.850 0.600 0.800 : US : 34,400 186,700 49,200 0.772 0.577 0.707 : All Pecans : AL : 5,000 13,000 15,000 0.870 0.688 0.850 AZ : 13,000 22,800 14,000 1.590 1.190 1.250 AR : 550 3,800 1,300 1.030 0.590 1.110 CA : 1,700 1,900 2,800 1.660 1.270 1.380 FL : 1,300 3,700 2,600 0.804 0.724 0.842 GA : 40,000 120,000 80,000 1.220 0.803 1.070 KS : 50 5,000 400 0.880 0.680 1.300 LA : 16,000 22,000 17,000 0.675 0.632 0.665 MS : 1,200 5,000 3,000 0.800 0.795 0.861 NM : 32,000 52,000 32,000 1.490 1.200 1.300 NC : 2,500 1,200 3,000 0.920 0.983 1.070 OK : 2,000 63,000 3,000 0.734 0.566 0.900 SC : 1,100 2,700 2,500 1.180 0.810 1.050 TX : 30,000 90,000 30,000 1.150 0.756 1.310 : US : 146,400 406,100 206,600 1.210 0.814 1.100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. Pecans: Value of Production by Variety, State, and United States, 1998-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Variety : Value of Production and :---------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Dollars : Improved : Varieties 1/ : AL : 3,339 5,950 9,500 AZ : 20,670 27,132 17,500 AR : 345 930 1,125 CA : 2,822 2,413 3,864 FL : 220 990 1,470 GA : 43,400 75,650 73,450 LA : 3,000 4,000 3,600 MS : 696 3,150 1,791 NM : 47,680 62,400 41,600 NC : 1,500 880 2,645 OK : 244 2,640 700 SC : 992 1,512 1,938 TX : 26,000 35,000 33,000 : US : 150,908 222,647 192,183 : Native and : Seedling : AL : 1,011 3,000 3,250 AR : 220 1,311 320 FL : 825 1,690 720 GA : 5,550 20,650 11,850 KS : 44 3,400 520 LA : 7,800 9,900 7,700 MS : 264 825 792 NC : 800 300 560 OK : 1,224 33,000 2,000 SC : 306 675 680 TX : 8,500 33,000 6,400 : US : 26,544 107,751 34,792 : All Pecans : AL : 4,350 8,950 12,750 AZ : 20,670 27,132 17,500 AR : 565 2,241 1,445 CA : 2,822 2,413 3,864 FL : 1,045 2,680 2,190 GA : 48,950 96,300 85,300 KS : 44 3,400 520 LA : 10,800 13,900 11,300 MS : 960 3,975 2,583 NM : 47,680 62,400 41,600 NC : 2,300 1,180 3,205 OK : 1,468 35,640 2,700 SC : 1,298 2,187 2,618 TX : 34,500 68,000 39,400 : US : 177,452 330,398 226,975 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. California Nut Crops: Bearing Acreage, Yield, Production, Price, and Value by Crop, 1998-99 and Revised 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Bearing Acreage : Yield per Acre 1/ Crop :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 :----------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- Acres ----------- --------- Tons 2/ --------- : Walnuts : (English) : 193,000 191,000 193,000 1.18 1.48 1.24 : : ----------- Acres ----------- ---------- Pounds --------- : Pistachios : 68,000 71,000 74,600 2,760 1,730 3,260 : : ----------- Acres ----------- -------- Pounds 3/ -------- : Almonds : 460,000 480,000 500,000 1,130 1,740 1,420 :----------------------------------------------------------------- : Production : Price per Unit :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 :----------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Tons 2/ ---------- ----- Dollars per Ton ----- : Walnuts : (English) 4/ : 227,000 283,000 239,000 1,050 886 : : ------ 1,000 Pounds 2/ ------ ---- Dollars per Pound --- : Pistachios : 188,000 123,000 243,000 1.03 1.33 0.98 : : ------ 1,000 Pounds 3/ ------ ---- Dollars per Pound --- : Almonds 5/ : 520,000 833,000 710,000 1.41 0.86 1.25 :----------------------------------------------------------------- : Value of Utilized Production :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Dollars : Walnuts : (English) 4/ : 238,350 250,738 : Pistachios : 193,640 163,590 238,140 : Almonds 5/ : 703,590 687,742 852,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Yield based on utilized production. 2/ In-shell basis. 3/ Shelled basis. 4/ Price and value estimates for 2000 will be published on July 6, 2001. 5/ Price and value estimates are based on the edible portion of the crop only. Included in production are inedible quantities of no value as follows: 1998 - 21.0 million pounds, 1999 - 33.2 million pounds, 2000 - 28.4 million pounds. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2000-2001 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,844.0 5,201.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 79,545.0 72,732.0 Corn for Silage : 5,868.0 Hay, All : 59,854.0 Alfalfa : 23,077.0 All Other : 36,777.0 Oats : 4,477.0 2,324.0 Proso Millet : 440.0 370.0 Rice : 3,065.0 3,044.0 Rye : 1,335.0 302.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,195.0 7,723.0 Sorghum for Silage : 265.0 Wheat, All : 62,529.0 53,028.0 Winter : 43,348.0 41,309.0 35,022.0 Durum : 3,937.0 3,572.0 Other Spring : 15,244.0 14,434.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,567.0 1,509.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 536.0 517.0 Mustard Seed : 46.0 42.9 Peanuts : 1,543.0 1,315.5 Rapeseed : 4.0 3.9 Safflower : 215.0 197.0 Soybeans for Beans : 74,496.0 72,718.0 Sunflower : 2,792.0 2,629.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 15,536.5 13,097.5 Upland : 15,365.0 12,927.0 Amer-Pima : 171.5 170.5 Sugarbeets : 1,564.2 1,378.1 Sugarcane : 1,037.0 Tobacco : 485.7 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 5.2 4.1 Dry Edible Beans : 1,756.2 1,606.4 Dry Edible Peas : 188.0 179.0 Lentils : 217.0 214.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.8 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.3 Hops : 36.1 Peppermint Oil : 89.5 Potatoes, All : 1,387.3 1,351.6 Winter : 17.2 16.8 17.0 14.0 Spring : 77.4 75.6 Summer : 64.7 61.8 Fall : 1,228.0 1,197.2 Spearmint Oil : 21.7 Sweet Potatoes : 97.3 94.2 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2000-2001 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 61.1 317,865 Corn for Grain : " : 137.1 9,968,358 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.8 98,538 Hay, All : " : 2.54 152,183 Alfalfa : " : 3.48 80,347 All Other : " : 1.95 71,836 Oats : Bu : 64.2 149,195 Proso Millet : " : 19.8 7,320 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,278 191,113 Rye : Bu : 28.5 8,619 Sorghum for Grain : " : 60.9 470,070 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 10.8 2,863 Wheat, All : Bu : 41.9 2,223,440 Winter : " : 44.6 1,562,733 Durum : " : 30.7 109,805 Other Spring : " : 38.2 550,902 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,337 2,016,951 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,439 Flaxseed : Bu : 20.8 10,730 Mustard Seed : Lb : 852 36,570 Peanuts : " : 2,499 3,287,600 Rapeseed : " : 1,474 5,750 Safflower : " : 1,434 282,545 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 38.1 2,769,665 Sunflower : Lb : 1,363 3,584,339 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 631 17,219.5 Upland 2/ : " : 625 16,822.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,119 397.5 Sugarbeets : Ton : 23.6 32,521 Sugarcane : " : 35.0 36,346 Tobacco : Lb : 2,264 1,099,884 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,780 73 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,646 26,440 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,955 3,499 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,415 3,029 Wrinkled Seed Peas : " : 680 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,340 9,100 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 50,000 13,500 Hops : " : 1,871 67,577 Peppermint Oil : " : 77 6,926 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 382 515,964 Winter : " : 292 268 4,960 3,750 Spring : " : 290 21,921 Summer : " : 301 18,579 Fall : " : 393 470,504 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 101 2,199 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 145 13,613 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 7,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1999-2001 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,513 2,758 2,604 K-Early Citrus (FL) : " : 4 5 2 Lemons : " : 747 863 927 Oranges : " : 9,824 13,113 12,377 Tangelos (FL) : " : 115 99 95 Tangerines : " : 327 451 379 Temples (FL) : " : 81 88 81 : : Non-Citrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 10,630.7 10,598.0 Apricots : Ton : 90.5 99.9 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 24,500.0 28,500.0 Grapes : Ton : 6,236.4 7,315.3 Olives (CA) : " : 142.0 53.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 42,400.0 53,000.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,525.7 2,610.9 Pears : Ton : 1,015.5 975.2 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 178.0 220.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 22.9 23.9 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 833,000 710,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 40.0 24.0 Pecans : Lb : 406,100 206,600 Pistachios (CA) : " : 123,000 243,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 283.0 239.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,188 1,231 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1998-99, 1999-00, and 2000-01. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2000-2001 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,365,010 2,104,790 Corn for Grain 2/ :32,191,070 29,433,910 Corn for Silage : 2,374,720 Hay, All 3/ : 24,222,320 Alfalfa : 9,339,030 All Other : 14,883,280 Oats : 1,811,800 940,500 Proso Millet : 178,060 149,740 Rice : 1,240,370 1,231,880 Rye : 540,260 122,220 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,721,120 3,125,420 Sorghum for Silage : 107,240 Wheat, All 3/ :25,304,860 21,459,900 Winter :17,542,500 16,717,340 14,173,050 Durum : 1,593,260 1,445,550 Other Spring : 6,169,090 5,841,300 : Oilseeds : Canola : 634,150 610,680 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 216,910 209,220 Mustard Seed : 18,620 17,360 Peanuts : 624,440 532,370 Rapeseed : 1,620 1,580 Safflower : 87,010 79,720 Soybeans for Beans :30,147,790 29,428,250 Sunflower : 1,129,890 1,063,930 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 6,287,470 5,300,430 Upland : 6,218,060 5,231,430 Amer-Pima : 69,400 69,000 Sugarbeets : 633,020 557,700 Sugarcane : 419,660 Tobacco : 196,570 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 2,100 1,660 Dry Edible Beans : 710,720 650,090 Dry Edible Peas : 76,080 72,440 Lentils : 87,820 86,600 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,750 Ginger Root (HI) : 110 Hops : 14,620 Peppermint Oil : 36,220 Potatoes, All 3/ : 561,430 546,980 Winter : 6,960 6,800 6,880 5,670 Spring : 31,320 30,590 Summer : 26,180 25,010 Fall : 496,960 484,490 Spearmint Oil : 8,780 Sweet Potatoes : 39,380 38,120 Taro (HI) 4/ : 190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2000-2001 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.29 6,920,690 Corn for Grain : 8.60 253,207,960 Corn for Silage : 37.64 89,392,170 Hay, All 2/ : 5.70 138,058,100 Alfalfa : 7.80 72,889,570 All Other : 4.38 65,168,520 Oats : 2.30 2,165,560 Proso Millet : 1.11 166,010 Rice : 7.04 8,668,740 Rye : 1.79 218,930 Sorghum for Grain : 3.82 11,940,330 Sorghum for Silage : 24.22 2,597,270 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.82 60,512,120 Winter : 3.00 42,530,620 Durum : 2.07 2,988,400 Other Spring : 2.57 14,993,100 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.50 914,870 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,841,000 Flaxseed : 1.30 272,550 Mustard Seed : 0.96 16,590 Peanuts : 2.80 1,491,230 Rapeseed : 1.65 2,610 Safflower : 1.61 128,160 Soybeans for Beans : 2.56 75,377,930 Sunflower : 1.53 1,625,830 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.71 3,749,100 Upland : 0.70 3,662,560 Amer-Pima : 1.25 86,550 Sugarbeets : 52.90 29,502,550 Sugarcane : 78.57 32,972,540 Tobacco : 2.54 498,900 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 2.00 3,310 Dry Edible Beans : 1.84 1,199,300 Dry Edible Peas : 2.19 158,710 Lentils : 1.59 137,390 Wrinkled Seed Peas : 30,840 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.50 4,130 Ginger Root (HI) : 56.04 6,120 Hops : 2.10 30,650 Peppermint Oil : 0.09 3,140 Potatoes, All 2/ : 42.79 23,403,730 Winter : 32.70 30.02 224,980 170,100 Spring : 32.50 994,320 Summer : 33.70 842,730 Fall : 44.05 21,341,700 Spearmint Oil : 0.11 1,000 Sweet Potatoes : 16.20 617,480 Taro (HI) 3/ : 3,180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1999-2001 (Metric Units) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,279,760 2,502,020 2,362,310 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 3,630 4,540 1,810 Lemons : 677,670 782,900 840,960 Oranges : 8,912,180 11,895,910 11,228,230 Tangelos (FL) : 104,330 89,810 86,180 Tangerines : 296,650 409,140 343,820 Temples (FL) : 73,480 79,830 73,480 : Non-Citrus : Apples : 4,822,000 4,807,170 Apricots : 82,100 90,630 Bananas (HI) : 11,110 12,930 Grapes : 5,657,530 6,636,300 Olives (CA) : 128,820 48,080 Papayas (HI) : 19,230 24,040 Peaches : 1,145,640 1,184,280 Pears : 921,200 884,640 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 161,480 199,580 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 20,770 21,680 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 377,840 322,050 Hazelnuts : 36,290 21,770 Pecans : 184,200 93,710 Pistachios (CA) : 55,790 110,220 Walnuts (CA) : 256,730 216,820 Maple Syrup : 5,940 6,150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1998-99, 1999-00, and 2000-01. January Weather Summary Unusually dry weather persisted in the Northwest, raising concerns about spring runoff prospects and summer water supplies. October-January precipitation averaged 40 to 70 percent of normal in key watershed areas from the Cascades and Sierra Nevada eastward to the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, beneficial precipitation returned to the Southwest after a dry December, boosting season-to-date precipitation well above normal in most areas, especially across New Mexico. Meanwhile in the Plains and Corn Belt, mild, mostly dry weather prevailed for most of the month, providing a respite from December's harsh conditions. Toward month's end, however, a strong winter storm produced heavy rain, freezing rain, and snow across the central and southern Plains and much of the Corn Belt, stressing livestock and leaving many fields and feedlots muddy. From the central Plains to the western Corn Belt, late-month blizzard conditions disrupted rural transportation. Across the South, a series of storm systems brought occasional heavy rain that also left fields muddy, primarily from the Delta westward. In contrast, only light showers fell across the drought-affected Peninsular Florida. Continued below normal precipitation in Florida resulted in reduced water supplies, increasing the threat of wildfires, and the need to maintain heavy citrus irrigation. A persistently cool weather pattern also affected the Southeast, resulting in a noteworthy freeze in Florida's citrus and winter vegetable areas on January 5, and several minor freezes both before and after that date. The Nation's other citrus areas largely avoided cold-weather concerns, although generally minor cold events affected California's San Joaquin Valley on January 17-18 and extreme southern Texas on January 4 and 20. Warmer weather arrived across southern Texas toward month's end, promoting fieldwork and crop development. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 4 degrees F above normal across the northern half of the Plains, western Corn Belt, and western Great Lakes region. Departures peaked at +14 degrees F in northern Minnesota. In contrast, readings averaged as much as 5 degrees F below normal in Florida and the southern Rockies. Cold air remained trapped in some high-elevation valleys of the Rocky Mountain region, holding temperatures as much as 10 degrees F below normal in localized areas. January Agricultural Summary Above-normal precipitation increased moisture supplies in the central and southern Great Plains, western Corn Belt, and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Snow cover was uneven in the northern Great Plains, but damage to the winter wheat crop was minimal due to warmer-than-normal temperatures. Frequent winter storms produced enough snow cover to protect winter wheat in the eastern Corn Belt. Topsoil moisture remained very short in Florida and along the Atlantic Coastal Plain, as precipitation was far below normal. Freezing temperatures slowed vegetative growth of small grains in northern Florida, and winter forages were stressed by drought in the Peninsula. Sugarcane harvest progressed without delays, but freezing temperatures killed leaves and growing points on most of the standing sugarcane crop. New crop sugarcane plants were killed back to the ground. Cold air covered virtually all of Florida's citrus-producing region, with temperatures well below freezing for extended periods on several nights early in the month. Varying degrees of slush ice were found in fruit from groves hardest hit by the cold weather. New growth suffered damage, including defoliation in some groves, even though caretakers ran irrigation systems to protect their groves. In Texas, cold, wet, weather limited fieldwork and hindered growth of small grains most of the month, especially on the High Plains and eastern areas of the State. Wheat fields were dormant across the north Texas Plains most of the month, but oat fields in southern Texas began heading after mid-month. Vegetable and citrus harvests were active in southern Texas, although the cold, wet, weather slowed crop development and harvest progress early in the month. Grazing on winter forage crops was limited by slow growth and muddy fields. In California, cool weather and moisture shortages hindered growth of field crops most of the month. Precipitation and above-normal temperatures promoted emergence and briefly accelerated growth of winter grains near mid-month. Growers irrigated crops to aid development. Most alfalfa fields were dormant, and cutting ceased due to cold weather. New alfalfa fields were prepared, irrigated, and seeded. Winter wheat, oat, and barley fields were planted and fertilized. Orchard and vineyard caretakers pruned trees and vines and applied dormant sprays. Producers irrigated orchards to maintain tree conditions. Citrus harvest remained active in most areas. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is estimated at 36.3 million tons, 3 percent above the previous record of 35.3 million tons set last year, but unchanged from the previous estimate. Harvested acres are estimated at a record high 1.04 million acres for sugar and seed during the 2000 crop year, 4 percent more than the 1999 harvested acres. Yield is estimated at 35.0 tons per acre, 0.5 ton below 1999, but unchanged from the previous estimate. Area harvested for sugar production is estimated at 980,600 acres, while area harvested for seed is estimated at 56,400 acres. Cane for sugar production is estimated at 34.5 million tons, 3 percent above 1999. Area harvested for sugar and seed is a record high 500,000 acres in Louisiana. However, production was 1 percent below 1999, due to drought conditions that reduced the average yield by 8 percent. Harvest continued without delay in Florida, and mills operated around the clock during January. Temples: Florida's Temple forecast, at 1.80 million boxes (81,000 tons), is unchanged from January. If realized, it will be 8 percent lower than the 1.95 million boxes (88,000 tons) recorded last season but equal to the utilization from the 1998-99 season. Average fruit size is below last season and close to the minimum size in the 10 season series. Loss from droppage continues to be above last season and the average of the series. Harvest is just underway. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2000-01 grapefruit crop for the United States is 2.60 million tons, down 2 percent from last month and 6 percent less than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast is 49.0 million boxes (2.08 million tons), down 2 percent from the January forecast and 8 percent lower than the previous season. The all white grapefruit forecast, which includes seedless and seedy varieties, remains at 20.0 million boxes (850,000 tons). If realized, the crop size will be down 4 percent from last season. The colored seedless utilization is forecast at 29.0 million boxes (1.23 million tons), 3 percent less than the January forecast and 9 percent below the previous season. Fruit size continues to increase, but still remains very small. In the 10 season series, there are only two seasons that had a smaller average size. Loss from droppage is the second lowest level in the series. Due to the long period of dry weather and colder than normal temperatures, maturity levels and small sizes have limited the amount utilized to date when compared to last season. As of January 29, white seedless utilization is 2.97 million boxes, compared to 4.24 million boxes last year. Colored utilization, at 9.10 million boxes, is 16 percent less than the 10.9 million boxes utilized to date last season. Forecasts for Arizona, California, and Texas are carried forward from the January forecast. Tangerines: The 2000-01 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 379,000 tons, down 7 percent from January and 16 percent below last season's record high utilization of 451,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop decreased to 5.60 million boxes (266,000 tons), 10 percent below the January forecast and 20 percent less than the record high use of 7.00 million boxes (333,000 tons) last season. The early tangerine harvest is almost complete. The harvest of the late Honey variety tangerines is ahead of last season's pace but less than the average pace of the last ten seasons. Average fruit size is less than originally projected and the loss factor increased from a month ago. However, the loss factor is still below average. Arizona and California forecasts are carried forward from the January forecast. Tangelos: Florida's 2000-01 tangelo forecast is 2.10 million boxes (94,500 tons), unchanged from last month's forecast and if realized, the utilization will be 5 percent less than last season. It will also be the smallest utilization of tangelos recorded since the 1968-69 season. This season's number of bearing trees is down from last year and the average fruit per tree is similar to last season. K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2000-01 is decreased to 40,000 boxes (1,800 tons), down 20,000 boxes from January and 70,000 boxes fewer than last season. This ties the record low utilization of the 1997-98 season. Harvest is virtually complete. Florida Citrus: Cold weather, including below freezing temperatures on the morning of January 5, covered most of Florida's citrus belt. Minimum temperatures were recorded for long enough durations to indicate fruit damage and loss would occur. But because of the below normal temperatures since November and the extensive use of irrigation to mitigate drought conditions and protect against cold weather, fruit damage was limited. Most processing plants are running around the clock to handle any damaged fruit. Virtually all fresh fruit packinghouses are finding fruit that is satisfactory for fresh shipments. January was another dry month with most citrus counties recording below average rainfall. Growers and caretakers have been running irrigation equipment to improve tree condition. Some trees have shown new growth with pin head bloom buds. California Citrus: Harvest of lemons, grapefruit, tangerines, and Navel oranges was active throughout the month. Good quality was evident. The Valencia orange crop was maturing well with picking expected to begin in the desert area soon. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 4.84 million pounds for January, 7 percent more than last month and 52 percent higher than January 2000. Area in crop totaled 2,690 acres for January, virtually the same as in December but 18 percent lower than January 2000. Harvested area totaled 1,870 acres, virtually unchanged from last month but 14 percent above a year ago. January weather conditions were variable with a mix of light showers and sunshine over major papaya producing orchards. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: During January, fruit and nut growers were pruning, removing trees, and planting cover crops. Cold nighttime temperatures helped accumulate chill hours for deciduous fruit trees. Early in the month, growers had to irrigate orchards due to dry conditions. Mid-month rains helped alleviate those dry conditions. Land was fumigated in preparation for new plantings of fruit and nut trees. Grape growers pruned vines, tied canes, and sprayed or cultivated for weed control. Strawberry fields were weeded and plants trimmed. Almonds: California almond production for 2000 is estimated at 710 million pounds, down 15 percent from last year's record high crop. This decrease is largely due to the alternate bearing cycle commonly found in tree nuts. Bearing acreage in 2000 totaled 500,000, 4 percent above 1999. The average price was $1.25 per pound (shelled basis), a 39 cent increase over 1999's average price. Value of utilized production amounted to 852 million dollars, 24 percent over 1999. Pecans: The February end-of-season estimate for the 2000 crop is 207 million pounds, down 49 percent from 1999's record high crop. The smaller 2000 crop following the previous year's record was expected due to the alternate bearing pattern of pecans. Improved varieties are expected to account for 157 million pounds of the total with native and seedling varieties making up the difference. The average U.S. all pecan price is $1.10 per pound (in-shell basis), up from 1999's average $0.814. Total value of utilized production is 227 million dollars, down 31 percent from last season. Pistachios: The 2000 California pistachio crop was a record high 243 million pounds. This was 98 percent higher than the 1999 crop and 29 percent larger than the previous record high crop in 1998. Bearing acreage in 2000 was 74,600, up 5 percent from the previous year. Average in-shell price was $0.98 per pound, down 35 cents from the previous year. Total value of utilized production was 238 million dollars, up 46 percent due to the record large crop size. Walnuts: California walnut production for 2000 is estimated at 239,000 tons, down 16 percent from 1999's record large crop. Bearing acreage in 2000 totaled 193,000 acres, up 2,000 acres from 1999. Estimates for the 2000 price and value will be published July 6, 2001 in the Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2000 Summary. Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida State Statistical Office submits its analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. The February 1 orange production forecasts for these three States are carried forward from January. Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecast will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End of year estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 4.8 percent. However, if you exclude the seven freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.3 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 4.8 percent or 4.3 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.3 percent or 7.6 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 367,000 tons (366,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 16,000 tons to 745,000 tons. The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 5 times and above 15 times (below 4 times and above 9 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecast this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Rhonda Brandt - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Roy Karkosh - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-3250 Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4288 Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270 Steve Gunn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture, Nursery(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 8, 2001. 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