Cr Pr 2-2 (3-01) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 8, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Orange Production Unchanged from February The U.S. all orange March 1 forecast of the 2000-01 crop is 12.4 million tons, unchanged from February's forecast but 6 percent less than last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is 223 million boxes (10.0 million tons), the same as last month but 4 percent less than the 1999-2000 final utilization. The early and midseason orange forecast remains at 127 million boxes (5.72 million tons), 5 percent lower than the previous season. Harvest is nearing completion and is expected to be finished by the end of March. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 96.0 million boxes (4.32 million tons), is unchanged from February but is 3 percent lower than last season's final utilization. The Valencia growth rate during February was near the average, but size continues below average. Loss from droppage remains below the previous ten-season average. Harvest has just begun with only a very low percentage of rows harvested. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the February forecasts. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is increased from 1.54 to 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The early and midseason portion is increased to 1.54 gallons per box from 1.51 last month. The Valencia portion is also increased and is expected to yield 1.65 gallons per box. All of the projected increases in yield are dependent on processors and harvesters following similar patterns of the past several seasons. This report was approved on March 8, 2001. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Keith J. Collins Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Frederic A. Vogel Contents Page Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 1999-2000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 443.0 437.0 35.0 37.0 15,505 16,169 HI 2/ : 35.4 32.6 81.7 80.7 2,892 2,631 LA 2/ : 435.0 465.0 32.7 30.0 14,225 13,950 TX 2/ : 28.0 46.0 34.1 37.7 955 1,734 : US : 941.4 980.6 35.7 35.2 33,577 34,484 : For Seed : FL : 17.0 18.0 35.0 39.0 595 702 HI 2/ : 1.9 2.8 35.8 34.0 68 95 LA 2/ : 30.0 35.0 32.7 30.0 981 1,050 TX 2/ : 3.0 0.6 26.0 25.0 78 15 : US : 51.9 56.4 33.2 33.0 1,722 1,862 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 460.0 455.0 35.0 37.1 16,100 16,871 HI 2/ : 37.3 35.4 79.4 77.0 2,960 2,726 LA 2/ : 465.0 500.0 32.7 30.0 15,206 15,000 TX 2/ : 31.0 46.6 33.3 37.5 1,033 1,749 : US : 993.3 1,037.0 35.5 35.0 35,299 36,346 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Current estimates carried forward from previous forecast. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Jan : 3,280 2,690 1,635 1,870 3,175 4,835 Feb : 3,075 2,630 1,675 1,845 3,440 4,295 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1998-99, 1999-00 and Forecasted March 1, 2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1998-99 : 1999-00 : 2000-01 : 1998-99 : 1999-00 : 2000-01 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 550 600 500 21 22 19 CA 4/ : 21,000 40,000 34,000 787 1,500 1,275 FL : 112,000 134,000 127,000 5,040 6,030 5,715 TX 4/ : 1,250 1,540 1,900 53 66 81 US : 134,800 176,140 163,400 5,901 7,618 7,090 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 600 500 550 22 19 21 CA 4/ : 15,000 27,000 25,000 563 1,013 938 FL : 74,000 99,000 96,000 3,330 4,455 4,320 TX 4/ : 180 200 200 8 8 8 US : 89,780 126,700 121,750 3,923 5,495 5,287 All : AZ 4/ : 1,150 1,100 1,050 43 41 40 CA 4/ : 36,000 67,000 59,000 1,350 2,513 2,213 FL : 186,000 233,000 223,000 8,370 10,485 10,035 TX 4/ : 1,430 1,740 2,100 61 74 89 US : 224,580 302,840 285,150 9,824 13,113 12,377 Temples : FL : 1,800 1,950 1,700 81 88 77 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 17,800 20,900 20,000 757 888 850 Colored Seedless : FL : 28,700 31,900 29,000 1,220 1,356 1,233 Other 5/ : FL : 550 600 23 25 All : AZ 4/ : 750 500 600 25 17 20 CA 4/ : 7,300 7,000 7,200 244 235 241 FL : 47,050 53,400 49,000 2,000 2,269 2,083 TX 4/ : 6,100 5,930 6,500 244 237 260 US : 61,200 66,830 63,300 2,513 2,758 2,604 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 950 850 800 36 32 30 CA 4/ 6/ : 1,500 2,300 2,200 56 86 83 FL : 4,950 7,000 5,600 235 333 266 US : 7,400 10,150 8,600 327 451 379 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,450 3,100 3,400 131 118 129 CA : 16,200 19,600 21,000 616 745 798 US : 19,650 22,700 24,400 747 863 927 Tangelos : FL : 2,550 2,200 2,100 115 99 95 K-Early Citrus : FL : 80 110 40 4 5 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5/ "Other" seedy grapefruit estimates discontinued after 1999-2000 crop. Included with white seedless beginning with the 2000-01 crop. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2000-2001 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,844.0 5,201.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 79,545.0 72,732.0 Corn for Silage : 5,868.0 Hay, All : 59,854.0 Alfalfa : 23,077.0 All Other : 36,777.0 Oats : 4,477.0 2,324.0 Proso Millet : 440.0 370.0 Rice : 3,065.0 3,044.0 Rye : 1,335.0 302.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,195.0 7,723.0 Sorghum for Silage : 265.0 Wheat, All : 62,529.0 53,028.0 Winter : 43,348.0 41,309.0 35,022.0 Durum : 3,937.0 3,572.0 Other Spring : 15,244.0 14,434.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,567.0 1,509.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 536.0 517.0 Mustard Seed : 46.0 42.9 Peanuts : 1,543.0 1,315.5 Rapeseed : 4.0 3.9 Safflower : 215.0 197.0 Soybeans for Beans : 74,496.0 72,718.0 Sunflower : 2,792.0 2,629.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 15,536.5 13,097.5 Upland : 15,365.0 12,927.0 Amer-Pima : 171.5 170.5 Sugarbeets : 1,564.2 1,378.1 Sugarcane : 1,037.0 Tobacco : 485.7 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 5.2 4.1 Dry Edible Beans : 1,756.2 1,606.4 Dry Edible Peas : 188.0 179.0 Lentils : 217.0 214.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.8 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.3 Hops : 36.1 Peppermint Oil : 89.5 Potatoes, All : 1,387.3 1,351.6 Winter : 17.2 16.8 17.0 14.0 Spring : 77.4 75.6 Summer : 64.7 61.8 Fall : 1,228.0 1,197.2 Spearmint Oil : 21.7 Sweet Potatoes : 97.3 94.2 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2000-2001 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 61.1 317,865 Corn for Grain : " : 137.1 9,968,358 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.8 98,538 Hay, All : " : 2.54 152,183 Alfalfa : " : 3.48 80,347 All Other : " : 1.95 71,836 Oats : Bu : 64.2 149,195 Proso Millet : " : 19.8 7,320 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,278 191,113 Rye : Bu : 28.5 8,619 Sorghum for Grain : " : 60.9 470,070 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 10.8 2,863 Wheat, All : Bu : 41.9 2,223,440 Winter : " : 44.6 1,562,733 Durum : " : 30.7 109,805 Other Spring : " : 38.2 550,902 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,337 2,016,951 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,439 Flaxseed : Bu : 20.8 10,730 Mustard Seed : Lb : 852 36,570 Peanuts : " : 2,499 3,287,600 Rapeseed : " : 1,474 5,750 Safflower : " : 1,434 282,545 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 38.1 2,769,665 Sunflower : Lb : 1,363 3,584,339 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 631 17,219.5 Upland 2/ : " : 625 16,822.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,119 397.5 Sugarbeets : Ton : 23.6 32,521 Sugarcane : " : 35.0 36,346 Tobacco : Lb : 2,264 1,099,884 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,780 73 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,646 26,440 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,955 3,499 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,415 3,029 Wrinkled Seed Peas : " : 680 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,340 9,100 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 50,000 13,500 Hops : " : 1,871 67,577 Peppermint Oil : " : 77 6,926 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 382 515,964 Winter : " : 292 268 4,960 3,750 Spring : " : 290 21,921 Summer : " : 301 18,579 Fall : " : 393 470,504 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 101 2,199 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 145 13,613 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 7,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1999-2001 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,513 2,758 2,604 K-Early Citrus (FL) : " : 4 5 2 Lemons : " : 747 863 927 Oranges : " : 9,824 13,113 12,377 Tangelos (FL) : " : 115 99 95 Tangerines : " : 327 451 379 Temples (FL) : " : 81 88 77 : : Non-Citrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 10,630.7 10,598.0 Apricots : Ton : 90.5 99.9 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 24,500.0 28,500.0 Grapes : Ton : 6,236.4 7,315.3 Olives (CA) : " : 142.0 53.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 42,400.0 53,000.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,525.7 2,610.9 Pears : Ton : 1,015.5 975.2 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 178.0 220.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 22.9 23.9 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 833,000 710,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 40.0 24.0 Pecans : Lb : 406,100 206,600 Pistachios (CA) : " : 123,000 243,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 283.0 239.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,188 1,231 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1998-99, 1999-00, and 2000-01. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2000-2001 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,365,010 2,104,790 Corn for Grain 2/ :32,191,070 29,433,910 Corn for Silage : 2,374,720 Hay, All 3/ : 24,222,320 Alfalfa : 9,339,030 All Other : 14,883,280 Oats : 1,811,800 940,500 Proso Millet : 178,060 149,740 Rice : 1,240,370 1,231,880 Rye : 540,260 122,220 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,721,120 3,125,420 Sorghum for Silage : 107,240 Wheat, All 3/ :25,304,860 21,459,900 Winter :17,542,500 16,717,340 14,173,050 Durum : 1,593,260 1,445,550 Other Spring : 6,169,090 5,841,300 : Oilseeds : Canola : 634,150 610,680 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 216,910 209,220 Mustard Seed : 18,620 17,360 Peanuts : 624,440 532,370 Rapeseed : 1,620 1,580 Safflower : 87,010 79,720 Soybeans for Beans :30,147,790 29,428,250 Sunflower : 1,129,890 1,063,930 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 6,287,470 5,300,430 Upland : 6,218,060 5,231,430 Amer-Pima : 69,400 69,000 Sugarbeets : 633,020 557,700 Sugarcane : 419,660 Tobacco : 196,570 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 2,100 1,660 Dry Edible Beans : 710,720 650,090 Dry Edible Peas : 76,080 72,440 Lentils : 87,820 86,600 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,750 Ginger Root (HI) : 110 Hops : 14,620 Peppermint Oil : 36,220 Potatoes, All 3/ : 561,430 546,980 Winter : 6,960 6,800 6,880 5,670 Spring : 31,320 30,590 Summer : 26,180 25,010 Fall : 496,960 484,490 Spearmint Oil : 8,780 Sweet Potatoes : 39,380 38,120 Taro (HI) 4/ : 190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2000-2001 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.29 6,920,690 Corn for Grain : 8.60 253,207,960 Corn for Silage : 37.64 89,392,170 Hay, All 2/ : 5.70 138,058,100 Alfalfa : 7.80 72,889,570 All Other : 4.38 65,168,520 Oats : 2.30 2,165,560 Proso Millet : 1.11 166,010 Rice : 7.04 8,668,740 Rye : 1.79 218,930 Sorghum for Grain : 3.82 11,940,330 Sorghum for Silage : 24.22 2,597,270 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.82 60,512,120 Winter : 3.00 42,530,620 Durum : 2.07 2,988,400 Other Spring : 2.57 14,993,100 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.50 914,870 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,841,000 Flaxseed : 1.30 272,550 Mustard Seed : 0.96 16,590 Peanuts : 2.80 1,491,230 Rapeseed : 1.65 2,610 Safflower : 1.61 128,160 Soybeans for Beans : 2.56 75,377,930 Sunflower : 1.53 1,625,830 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.71 3,749,100 Upland : 0.70 3,662,560 Amer-Pima : 1.25 86,550 Sugarbeets : 52.90 29,502,550 Sugarcane : 78.57 32,972,540 Tobacco : 2.54 498,900 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 2.00 3,310 Dry Edible Beans : 1.84 1,199,300 Dry Edible Peas : 2.19 158,710 Lentils : 1.59 137,390 Wrinkled Seed Peas : 30,840 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.50 4,130 Ginger Root (HI) : 56.04 6,120 Hops : 2.10 30,650 Peppermint Oil : 0.09 3,140 Potatoes, All 2/ : 42.79 23,403,730 Winter : 32.70 30.02 224,980 170,100 Spring : 32.50 994,320 Summer : 33.70 842,730 Fall : 44.05 21,341,700 Spearmint Oil : 0.11 1,000 Sweet Potatoes : 16.20 617,480 Taro (HI) 3/ : 3,180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 1999-2001 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,279,760 2,502,020 2,362,310 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 3,630 4,540 1,810 Lemons : 677,670 782,900 840,960 Oranges : 8,912,180 11,895,910 11,228,230 Tangelos (FL) : 104,330 89,810 86,180 Tangerines : 296,650 409,140 343,820 Temples (FL) : 73,480 79,830 69,850 : Non-Citrus : Apples : 4,822,000 4,807,170 Apricots : 82,100 90,630 Bananas (HI) : 11,110 12,930 Grapes : 5,657,530 6,636,300 Olives (CA) : 128,820 48,080 Papayas (HI) : 19,230 24,040 Peaches : 1,145,640 1,184,280 Pears : 921,200 884,640 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 161,480 199,580 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 20,770 21,680 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 377,840 322,050 Hazelnuts : 36,290 21,770 Pecans : 184,200 93,710 Pistachios (CA) : 55,790 110,220 Walnuts (CA) : 256,730 216,820 Maple Syrup : 5,940 6,150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1998-99, 1999-00, and 2000-01. February Weather Summary Storm systems continued to bypass the snow-deficient Northwest, instead charting a course across southern California and the Southwest. Spring runoff and summer water-supply prospects improved in the Sierra Nevada but worsened from the Cascades to the northern Rockies. Farther east, much of the storms' energy tracked northeastward across the central and southern Plains and into the Great Lakes region, causing considerable lowland flooding and leaving standing water in some winter wheat fields. Heavy rain fell as far east as the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys, but abruptly drier conditions prevailed just to the south, including areas from southern Texas to the southern Atlantic region. Drought-stricken Florida remained especially dry, further reducing freshwater reserves, maintaining heavy citrus irrigation requirements, and fostering the spread of wildfires. After a January respite, bitterly cold weather returned to the northern and central Plains and western Corn Belt, where monthly temperatures ranged from 4 to 12 degrees F below normal. In addition, heavy snow blanketed the upper Midwest, increasing the threat of spring snow-melt flooding from the eastern Dakotas to the upper Mississippi Valley. Cool weather (as much as 4 degrees F below normal) also prevailed in California's Central Valley, combining with frequent showers to slow spring fieldwork and winter crop development. In contrast, temperatures averaged 2 to 8 degrees F above normal across most of the East and South, spurring pasture and winter grain development in the latter region. February Agricultural Summary Most of the central and southwestern United States received above normal precipitation during the month. The precipitation boosted soil moisture reserves, but streams and low-lying areas were occasionally flooded in parts of the southern Great Plains, Mississippi Delta, and Tennessee Valley. Drought conditions continued in the Florida peninsula, while drier-than-normal weather prevailed along the Gulf Coast, on the Atlantic Coastal Plains, and through most of the Northeast. Most of the Pacific Northwest, adjacent areas of the northern Great Plains, and interior parts of the Southwest received below-normal precipitation. Unprotected winter wheat fields in the northern Great Plains were exposed to below-normal temperatures and strong winds. In the southern Great Plains, winter grains were dormant early in the month due to cold weather, but growth resumed when above-normal temperatures returned after mid-month. Below-normal temperatures hindered growth of winter grains and forages in California. In Florida, citrus caretakers irrigated groves to maintain tree conditions. Biological development gradually accelerated as the month progressed due to above normal temperatures. Trees in well maintained groves produced new growth and bloom buds, especially after mid-month. Citrus, sugarcane, and vegetable harvests continued with virtually no rain delays. Rain aided growth of winter grains and forages in the Panhandle, but dry weather prevented growth elsewhere. Fieldwork steadily progressed in southern Texas, where precipitation was below normal. Corn, cotton, and sorghum planting began in the Coastal Bend, Lower Valley, and South Texas regions. Adequate moisture and warm weather aided germination and growth of early-planted fields. Some oat fields in South Texas entered the heading stage. Cold, wet weather limited field preparations in northern areas of the State. In California, wet weather frequently delayed fieldwork, including tillage, orchard and vineyard activities, and fertilizer and pesticide applications. The precipitation provided beneficial moisture for development of dryland crops, but growth of small grains was hindered by below-normal temperatures. Some early peach, nectarine, and plum varieties produced bloom buds, but most of California's orchards and vineyards remained dormant due to cool weather. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2000-01 grapefruit crop for the United States is unchanged from February, at 2.60 million tons, but 6 percent less than last season. The Florida grapefruit forecast is 49.0 million boxes (2.08 million tons), unchanged from the February forecast but 8 percent lower than the previous season. The all white grapefruit forecast, which includes seedless and seedy varieties, remains at 20.0 million boxes (850,000 tons). If realized, the crop size will be down 4 percent from last season. The colored seedless utilization remains at 29.0 million boxes (1.23 million tons) but is 9 percent below the previous season's final utilization. Fruit size continues to increase, but still remains small in relation to most recent seasons. Loss from droppage continues to be minimal this season, less than the 1999-2000 crop and below the ten-season mean. Forecasts for Arizona, California, and Texas are carried forward from the January forecast. Tangelos: Florida's 2000-01 tangelo forecast, at 2.10 million boxes (94,500 tons), is unchanged from February but is 5 percent less than last season. This will be the smallest utilized production of tangelos recorded since the 1968-69 season. Harvest is winding down rapidly with very few boxes certified in recent weeks. Tangerines: The 2000-01 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 379,000 tons, unchanged from February but 16 percent below last season's record high utilization of 451,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop, at 5.60 million boxes (266,000 tons), is the same as the February forecast but 20 percent less than the record high use of 7.00 million boxes (333,000 tons) last season. Their early tangerine harvest is virtually complete. The late season Honey variety tangerines remaining for harvest have shown a slight increase in size since the end of January. However, the loss from droppage since August is 53 percent, nearly equal to the ten-season average but much higher than last season. Arizona and California forecasts are carried forward from the January forecast. Temples: Florida's Temple forecast, at 1.70 million boxes (76,500 tons), is 6 percent less than the February forecast and 13 percent lower than the 1.95 million boxes (88,000 tons) recorded last season. Objective surveys indicated a slight reduction in the average size, which is the smallest in the ten-season series. Also, loss from droppage increased from last month. The percent harvested to-date lags behind six of the previous eight seasons. Estimated utilization by the end of February was 715,000 boxes. K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2000-01 is final at 40,000 boxes (1,800 tons), unchanged from February but 70,000 boxes fewer than last season. This equals the record low utilization of the 1997-98 season. Florida Citrus: The entire Florida citrus belt continued to be very dry during the month of February. There were a few rainy days with measurable precipitation, but not enough to alleviate the dry conditions. Growers and caretakers have been using all types of irrigation to maintain good tree condition. The drought is causing a great deal of concern as water restrictions and dry wells could cause serious problems to Florida's citrus industry. The lack of precipitation could lead to higher amounts of salt intrusion in many of the coastal wells and water sources. Harvest of early and midseason oranges was very active in early February, but by the month's end weekly movement was slowing considerably as supplies were running low. Grapefruit movement for both fresh and process utilization increased toward the end of the month as more labor from the completed orange harvesting crews became available. However, most processing plants are waiting for better maturity tests before taking large amounts of grapefruit. Honey tangerine and tangelo movement continued active during February. Picking of Temples is gaining momentum for both fresh and process use. Caretakers have been very active cutting cover crops prior to harvesting and for fire protection. Growers have been hedging and topping before the full open bloom period. Dead trees and limbs are being stacked for future burning. There are very few burn permits being issued due to the current dry conditions. New growth and bloom buds for next season's crop started to show in early February and by the end of the month there were bloom buds of all sizes in all areas. There were even some Navel and Valencia orange trees in full bloom and some showing petal drop. California Citrus: Harvest of lemons, grapefruit, tangerines, and Navel oranges was slowed in February by rainy weather. Good quality remains apparent for nearly all citrus fruits. The harvest of the Valencia orange crop in the desert area began in late February. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: The wet weather throughout February kept growers from conducting typical cultural activities in orchards and vineyards. Cultivating, fertilizing, pruning, and brush shredding were active, however, when weather permitted. The frequent rains hampered bees from pollinating almond trees. However, the much needed rainfall helped alleviate dry conditions. Early varieties of nectarines, peaches, and plums pushed buds. Strawberry fields were weeded and plants were trimmed. Fields in some locations were blooming. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 4.30 million pounds for February, a decrease of 11 percent from January but 25 percent higher than February 2000. Area in crop totaled 2,630 acres, down 2 percent from January and 14 percent lower than a year ago. Harvested area, totaling 1,845 acres, was 1 percent less than January but 10 percent higher than last February. Weather conditions during February were variable. Dry conditions during the first week were followed by rains, sometimes heavy, the next two weeks. Sunnier skies and light showers returned during the last week of February. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is estimated at 36.3 million tons, 3 percent above the previous record of 35.3 million tons set last year, but unchanged from the previous estimate. Harvested acres are estimated at a record high 1.04 million acres for sugar and seed during the 2000 crop year, 4 percent more than the 1999 final harvested acres. Yield is estimated at 35.0 tons per acre, 0.5 ton below 1999, but unchanged from the previous estimate. Area harvested for sugar production is estimated at 980,600 acres, while area harvested for seed is estimated at 56,400 acres. Cane for sugar production is estimated at 34.5 million tons, 3 percent above 1999, but unchanged from the February 1 estimate. Area harvested for sugar and seed is a record high 500,000 acres in Louisiana, however, production was 1 percent below 1999, due to drought conditions that reduced the average yield by 8 percent. Harvest continued without delay in Florida. Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida State Statistical Office submits its analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. The March 1 orange production forecasts for these three States are carried forward from January. Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecast will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End of year estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 3.6 percent. However, if you exclude the seven freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.3 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.6 percent or 3.3 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.3 percent or 5.8 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 255,000 tons (241,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 8,000 tons to 713,000 tons. The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 8 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Rhonda Brandt - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Roy Karkosh - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables (202) 720-3250 Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4288 Jeffrey Kissel - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Beans & Peas, Mushrooms (202) 690-0270 Steve Gunn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Dave Ranek - Nuts, Floriculture, Nursery(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on April 10, 2001. 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