Cr Pr 2-2 (12-01) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 11, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Cotton Production Down 1 Percent All Orange Production Unchanged from October All cotton production is forecast at 20.1 million 480-pound bales, down 1 percent from last month but up 17 percent from 2000. Yield is expected to average 691 pounds per harvested acre, up 6 pounds from last month. Survey and ginnings data indicated decreased production forecasts in Alabama, California, Mississippi, and Texas, which more than offset increased production forecasts in Arkansas, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. The increase in yield resulted from a decrease in Texas harvested acreage. The harvested acreage reduction was based on information from the Objective Yield Survey and administrative data. The U.S. all orange December 1 forecast for the 2001-02 crop is 12.5 million tons, unchanged from the October 1 forecast but up 1 percent from last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast remains at 231 million boxes (10.4 million tons), 3 percent more than the previous season. Weather conditions this fall have been dry with temperatures above average, affecting fruit sizing. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 131 million boxes (5.90 million tons), the same as the October forecast. If realized, this production will be 2 percent higher than last season. Fruit size is expected to be slightly less than the 10-season mean. Loss from droppage remains near average. Florida's Valencia forecast is 100 million boxes (4.50 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 5 percent higher than last season's final utilization. Fruit size is slightly below the mean. Loss from droppage is greater than the past two seasons but remains below the average. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the October forecasts. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is unchanged from October at 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The final all orange yield for the 2000-01 season as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association was 1.58 gallons per box. Projected juice yield for 2001-02 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on December 11, 2001. Acting Secretary of Agriculture James R. Moseley Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Frederic A. Vogel Contents Page Beans, Dry Edible. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Coffee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Pecans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . . . . . . 28 Sugarcane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Tobacco, Burley. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2000 and Forecasted December 1, 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 2001 : : State : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 :-------------------: 2000 : 2001 : : : : Nov 1 : Dec 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 530.0 605.0 492 730 706 543.0 890.0 AZ : 278.0 278.0 1,366 1,260 1,260 791.0 730.0 AR : 950.0 1,080.0 720 778 811 1,425.0 1,825.0 CA : 770.0 655.0 1,378 1,429 1,356 2,210.0 1,850.0 GA : 1,350.0 1,490.0 591 709 709 1,663.0 2,200.0 LA : 695.0 855.0 629 578 578 911.0 1,030.0 MS : 1,280.0 1,630.0 642 742 727 1,711.0 2,470.0 MO : 388.0 395.0 668 790 863 540.0 710.0 NM : 67.0 70.0 724 823 823 101.0 120.0 NC : 925.0 975.0 742 763 763 1,429.0 1,550.0 OK : 145.0 200.0 503 504 504 152.0 210.0 SC : 290.0 296.0 627 649 665 379.0 410.0 TN : 565.0 605.0 603 690 762 710.0 960.0 TX : 4,400.0 4,300.0 430 459 458 3,940.0 4,100.0 VA : 108.0 104.0 738 743 854 166.0 185.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 143.0 161.0 430 584 584 128.2 196.0 : US :12,884.0 13,699.0 626 675 681 16,799.2 19,436.0 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 4.9 7.5 705 960 960 7.2 15.0 CA : 144.0 209.0 1,154 1,286 1,309 346.3 570.0 NM : 4.1 7.0 539 686 686 4.6 10.0 TX : 16.0 17.0 930 932 932 31.0 33.0 : US : 169.0 240.5 1,105 1,233 1,253 389.1 628.0 : All : AL : 530.0 605.0 492 730 706 543.0 890.0 AZ : 282.9 285.5 1,354 1,253 1,253 798.2 745.0 AR : 950.0 1,080.0 720 778 811 1,425.0 1,825.0 CA : 914.0 864.0 1,342 1,394 1,344 2,556.3 2,420.0 GA : 1,350.0 1,490.0 591 709 709 1,663.0 2,200.0 LA : 695.0 855.0 629 578 578 911.0 1,030.0 MS : 1,280.0 1,630.0 642 742 727 1,711.0 2,470.0 MO : 388.0 395.0 668 790 863 540.0 710.0 NM : 71.1 77.0 713 810 810 105.6 130.0 NC : 925.0 975.0 742 763 763 1,429.0 1,550.0 OK : 145.0 200.0 503 504 504 152.0 210.0 SC : 290.0 296.0 627 649 665 379.0 410.0 TN : 565.0 605.0 603 690 762 710.0 960.0 TX : 4,416.0 4,317.0 432 460 460 3,971.0 4,133.0 VA : 108.0 104.0 738 743 854 166.0 185.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 143.0 161.0 430 584 584 128.2 196.0 : US :13,053.0 13,939.5 632 685 691 17,188.3 20,064.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3/ Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2001 Summary". Cottonseed: Production, United States, 1999-2000 and Forecasted December 1, 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 6,353.5 6,435.6 7,532.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Burley Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State, and United States, 1999-2000 and Forecasted December 1, 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : Type 31 : IN : 3,800 4,200 2,100 2,250 11,700 7,980 9,450 KY : 120,000 105,000 2,025 2,200 380,100 243,000 231,000 MO 1/ : 1,400 1,400 2,120 2,200 4,635 2,968 3,080 NC : 7,400 6,800 1,600 1,850 12,480 11,840 12,580 OH : 7,500 6,100 1,760 1,970 17,052 13,200 12,017 TN : 37,000 34,000 1,920 2,000 103,950 71,040 68,000 VA : 7,000 8,000 1,600 2,000 23,108 11,200 16,000 WV 1/ : 1,300 1,300 1,200 1,400 2,160 1,560 1,820 : US : 185,400 166,800 1,957 2,122 555,185 362,788 353,947 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Oct : 2,710 2,690 1,690 1,925 4,255 4,820 Nov : 2,720 2,710 1,695 1,930 4,430 4,850 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1999-2000, 2000-2001 and Forecasted December 1, 2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :---------------------------------------------------------- : 1999-00 : 2000-01 : 2001-02 : 1999-00 : 2000-01 :2001-02 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 600 480 400 22 18 15 CA 4/ : 40,000 36,000 32,000 1,500 1,350 1,200 FL : 134,000 128,000 131,000 6,030 5,760 5,895 TX 4/ : 1,460 2,000 2,000 62 85 85 US : 176,060 166,480 165,400 7,614 7,213 7,195 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 500 420 350 19 16 13 CA 4/ : 24,000 23,000 22,000 900 862 825 FL : 99,000 95,300 100,000 4,455 4,289 4,500 TX 4/ : 200 235 200 9 10 9 US : 123,700 118,955 122,550 5,383 5,177 5,347 All : AZ 4/ : 1,100 900 750 41 34 28 CA 4/ : 64,000 59,000 54,000 2,400 2,212 2,025 FL : 233,000 223,300 231,000 10,485 10,049 10,395 TX 4/ : 1,660 2,235 2,200 71 95 94 US : 299,760 285,435 287,950 12,997 12,390 12,542 Temples : FL : 1,950 1,250 1,400 88 56 63 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 20,900 18,700 19,000 888 795 808 Colored Seedless : FL : 31,900 27,300 28,000 1,356 1,160 1,190 Other 5/ : FL : 600 25 All : AZ 4/ : 450 250 200 15 8 7 CA 4/ : 7,200 6,500 6,000 241 218 201 FL : 53,400 46,000 47,000 2,269 1,955 1,998 TX 4/ : 5,930 7,200 7,800 237 288 312 US : 66,980 59,950 61,000 2,762 2,469 2,518 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 850 650 600 32 24 23 CA 4/ 6/ : 2,500 2,100 2,500 94 79 94 FL : 7,000 5,600 6,400 332 266 304 US : 10,350 8,350 9,500 458 369 421 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,100 3,600 3,100 118 137 118 CA : 19,000 22,700 23,000 722 863 874 US : 22,100 26,300 26,100 840 1,000 992 Tangelos : FL : 2,200 2,100 2,300 99 95 104 K-Early Citrus : FL : 110 40 30 5 2 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5/ Seedy (Duncan) grapefruit estimates discontinued after 1999-00 crop. Included with White Seedless beginning with the 2000-01 crop. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 1999-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 135.0 115.0 92.0 132.0 112.0 89.0 CO : 155.0 120.0 115.0 145.0 110.0 105.0 ID : 105.0 90.0 75.0 103.0 88.0 73.0 KS : 22.0 18.0 15.0 20.9 16.0 14.0 MI : 350.0 285.0 215.0 350.0 275.0 130.0 MN : 205.0 165.0 115.0 165.0 150.0 105.0 MT : 26.5 40.5 38.5 25.5 34.8 31.8 NE : 210.0 165.0 160.0 187.0 156.0 148.0 NM 2/ : 1.0 13.0 1.0 13.0 NY : 31.0 25.0 23.0 30.2 24.5 22.3 ND : 630.0 610.0 440.0 570.0 525.0 400.0 OR : 11.5 12.0 10.0 10.8 11.7 9.5 SD 3/ : 11.0 18.0 10.8 17.0 TX : 50.0 20.0 28.0 47.0 16.6 24.4 UT : 6.7 5.4 6.1 6.6 3.0 5.7 WA : 36.0 32.0 34.0 36.0 32.0 34.0 WI : 8.3 8.3 6.8 8.0 8.1 6.5 WY : 40.0 36.0 24.0 39.0 34.0 22.0 : US : 2,023.0 1,758.2 1,428.4 1,877.0 1,607.5 1,250.2 :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Acre 4/ : Production 4/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ---------- 1,000 Cwt --------- : CA : 1,860 1,840 1,800 2,455 2,059 1,602 CO : 1,900 1,800 1,700 2,755 1,980 1,785 ID : 2,050 1,950 1,950 2,112 1,716 1,424 KS : 1,850 1,810 1,850 387 289 259 MI : 2,100 1,500 600 7,350 4,125 780 MN : 1,550 1,600 1,500 2,558 2,400 1,575 MT : 1,730 1,400 1,290 441 486 409 NE : 2,000 2,070 2,150 3,740 3,230 3,185 NM 2/ : 1,800 2,000 18 260 NY : 1,370 1,460 870 414 358 194 ND : 1,450 1,450 1,550 8,265 7,613 6,200 OR : 1,610 1,800 1,810 174 211 172 SD 3/ : 2,090 1,620 226 275 TX : 1,490 950 1,300 701 158 318 UT : 800 330 300 53 10 17 WA : 2,080 2,000 1,700 750 640 578 WI : 1,550 1,800 1,600 124 146 104 WY : 2,020 2,240 2,110 788 762 465 : US : 1,763 1,643 1,568 33,085 26,409 19,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2/ Estimates discontinued in 2000, reinstated in 2001. 3/ Estimates began in 2000. 4/ Clean Basis. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1999-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Large Lima : CA : 25.0 20.5 12.8 24.0 19.5 12.5 : Baby Lima : CA : 27.0 24.5 12.2 26.0 23.5 11.5 : Navy : ID : 5.1 7.3 3.0 5.0 7.1 2.9 MI : 150.0 125.0 65.0 150.0 120.0 30.0 MN : 80.0 66.0 48.0 64.0 60.0 44.0 NE : 7.0 4.0 6.2 3.5 ND : 195.0 138.0 95.0 175.0 111.0 85.0 OR : 1.2 0.7 1.2 0.6 SD 1/ : 3.2 1.3 3.1 1.0 WY : 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.9 1.8 0.9 : Total : 440.3 346.2 213.3 403.3 307.1 163.8 : Great Northern : ID : 6.6 7.2 4.2 6.5 7.0 4.1 MI : 8.0 3.5 MN : 2.8 2.6 1.1 2.5 2.3 0.9 NE : 115.0 104.5 84.0 104.0 100.0 79.0 ND : 6.5 8.0 5.5 7.5 WA : 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 WY : 8.0 7.0 2.0 7.7 6.8 1.2 : Total : 133.5 128.9 108.5 121.8 122.7 97.4 : Small White : ID : 2.9 1.4 0.9 2.9 1.4 0.9 OR : 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 WA : 1.8 0.9 0.4 1.8 0.9 0.4 : Total : 5.3 2.9 1.8 5.3 2.9 1.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1999-2001 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre 2/ : Production 2/ and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : Large Lima : CA : 1,800 2,240 2,480 433 437 310 : Baby Lima : CA : 2,380 2,310 2,100 620 542 241 : Navy : ID : 2,160 2,250 2,170 108 160 63 MI : 2,300 1,500 570 3,450 1,800 170 MN : 1,560 1,650 1,620 998 990 713 NE : 1,950 2,200 121 77 ND : 1,460 1,460 1,560 2,555 1,620 1,327 OR : 1,920 1,170 23 7 SD 1/ : 2,480 2,400 77 24 WY : 2,050 2,200 2,000 39 40 18 : Total : 1,809 1,554 1,413 7,294 4,771 2,315 : Great Northern : ID : 2,110 2,090 2,150 137 146 88 MI : 570 20 MN : 1,600 1,520 1,440 40 35 13 NE : 2,030 2,040 2,230 2,111 2,040 1,761 ND : 1,510 1,710 83 128 WA : 2,450 2,180 2,250 27 24 27 WY : 2,000 2,370 2,170 154 161 26 : Total : 2,027 2,029 2,118 2,469 2,489 2,063 : Small White : ID : 2,100 2,070 2,110 61 29 19 OR : 2,000 2,670 2,200 12 16 11 WA : 2,170 2,110 2,000 39 19 8 : Total : 2,113 2,207 2,111 112 64 38 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates began in 2000. 2/ Clean Basis. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1999-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Pinto : CO : 125.0 100.0 94.0 118.5 92.0 85.0 ID : 31.2 29.0 22.2 30.6 28.2 21.5 KS : 16.5 17.3 13.5 15.8 15.5 12.6 MI : 9.0 21.0 7.0 9.0 20.0 4.5 MN : 38.0 39.0 13.0 24.0 34.0 12.0 MT : 13.9 14.5 11.5 13.2 13.8 10.3 NE : 60.0 39.0 53.5 54.0 36.0 47.5 NM 1/ : 1.0 13.0 1.0 13.0 ND : 363.0 411.0 286.0 332.0 363.0 261.0 OR : 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.4 1.9 SD 2/ : 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.0 TX : 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.9 UT : 6.7 5.4 6.1 6.6 3.0 5.7 WA : 9.0 10.5 4.2 9.0 10.5 4.2 WY : 28.0 26.0 20.0 27.5 24.5 19.0 : Total : 705.2 718.5 549.1 644.9 646.2 501.1 : Light Red : Kidney : CA : 8.0 11.0 6.2 8.0 11.0 6.2 CO : 15.0 12.0 13.0 12.5 11.0 12.5 ID : 0.8 1.6 0.6 0.8 1.6 0.6 MI : 17.0 19.0 18.0 17.0 19.0 11.0 MN : 11.0 10.0 8.2 10.5 9.6 7.7 NE : 19.0 13.0 11.5 14.8 12.3 11.0 NY : 17.7 15.0 13.3 17.5 14.6 13.1 WA : 2.0 1.4 1.0 2.0 1.4 1.0 : Total : 90.5 83.0 71.8 83.1 80.5 63.1 : Dark Red : Kidney : CA : 3.5 6.0 2.5 3.5 6.0 2.5 ID : 1.1 1.1 1.9 1.1 1.1 1.8 MI : 9.0 12.0 9.0 9.0 12.0 7.0 MN : 38.0 32.0 31.0 36.0 30.0 29.0 NY : 2.0 1.9 1.2 2.0 1.8 1.2 ND : 5.0 4.0 5.0 4.7 3.5 4.7 WI : 8.3 8.3 6.8 8.0 8.1 6.5 : Total : 66.9 65.3 57.4 64.3 62.5 52.7 : Pink : CA : 2.0 0.7 2.0 0.7 ID : 19.2 3.3 4.9 18.7 3.3 4.8 MN : 14.0 6.0 6.6 10.2 5.8 5.6 ND : 11.0 4.0 4.0 10.0 3.5 3.8 WA : 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.5 : Total : 50.7 18.2 20.0 45.4 17.5 18.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1999-2001 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre 3/ : Production 3/ and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- -------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : Pinto : CO : 1,890 1,820 1,720 2,235 1,675 1,460 ID : 2,170 2,270 2,440 664 641 524 KS : 1,850 1,800 1,860 292 279 234 MI : 1,890 1,450 510 170 290 23 MN : 1,430 1,450 1,300 343 494 156 MT : 2,240 2,400 1,980 296 331 204 NE : 2,030 2,080 2,190 1,096 749 1,040 NM 1/ : 1,800 2,000 18 260 ND : 1,460 1,460 1,550 4,860 5,294 4,050 OR : 1,520 2,420 2,420 35 58 46 SD 2/ : 2,480 2,600 57 52 TX : 860 800 1,670 12 8 15 UT : 800 330 300 53 10 17 WA : 2,300 2,300 2,240 207 242 94 WY : 2,030 2,210 2,110 558 542 401 : Total : 1,681 1,651 1,711 10,839 10,670 8,576 : Light Red : Kidney : CA : 1,510 1,480 1,370 121 163 85 CO : 1,760 1,750 1,640 220 193 205 ID : 2,130 1,690 1,670 17 27 10 MI : 1,800 1,500 770 306 285 85 MN : 1,700 1,850 1,490 178 178 115 NE : 1,790 2,200 1,900 265 271 209 NY : 1,290 1,430 850 225 209 112 WA : 2,150 1,860 2,000 43 26 20 : Total : 1,655 1,680 1,333 1,375 1,352 841 : Dark Red : Kidney : CA : 1,310 1,370 1,920 46 82 48 ID : 2,000 1,910 1,890 22 21 34 MI : 1,700 1,520 430 153 182 30 MN : 1,660 1,700 1,500 597 510 435 NY : 1,350 1,280 830 27 23 10 ND : 1,510 1,430 1,450 71 50 68 WI : 1,550 1,800 1,600 124 146 104 : Total : 1,617 1,622 1,383 1,040 1,014 729 : Pink : CA : 1,150 860 23 6 ID : 2,200 2,120 2,230 412 70 107 MN : 1,400 1,470 1,050 143 85 59 ND : 1,450 1,570 1,550 145 55 59 WA : 2,040 2,480 2,200 92 104 99 : Total : 1,795 1,829 1,733 815 320 324 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2000, reinstated in 2001. 2/ Estimates began in 2000. 3/ Clean Basis. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1999-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Small Red : ID : 19.6 7.2 3.8 19.1 7.0 3.7 MI : 15.0 8.0 12.0 15.0 8.0 6.5 WA : 8.0 2.2 3.0 8.0 2.2 3.0 : Total : 42.6 17.4 18.8 42.1 17.2 13.2 : Cranberry : CA : 2.5 3.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 1.5 ID : 1.3 1.4 2.6 1.2 1.4 2.6 MI : 31.0 26.0 26.0 31.0 25.0 12.0 MN : 2.6 0.8 0.6 2.4 0.5 0.5 : Total : 37.4 31.7 30.7 37.1 30.4 16.6 : Black : CA : 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 CO : 1.2 1.0 ID : 4.8 1.1 0.6 4.8 1.1 0.6 MI : 108.0 55.0 63.0 108.0 53.0 52.0 MN : 10.6 4.9 2.0 9.8 4.3 1.3 NE : 7.0 0.8 1.1 6.4 0.8 0.8 NY : 9.5 5.2 6.7 9.0 5.2 6.3 ND : 41.0 25.0 19.0 37.0 22.0 18.0 WA : 3.2 1.2 2.0 3.2 1.2 2.0 : Total : 186.3 94.2 94.4 180.2 88.6 81.0 : Blackeye : CA : 39.5 15.3 12.0 38.5 15.3 12.0 TX : 33.0 7.5 18.0 31.0 5.8 15.5 : Total : 72.5 22.8 30.0 69.5 21.1 27.5 : Garbanzo : CA : 16.5 24.5 36.0 16.5 23.5 34.0 ID : 11.8 28.6 28.8 11.7 28.0 28.0 MT : 12.1 25.3 26.5 11.8 20.5 21.0 NE : 6.3 6.2 ND : 10.0 15.0 19.0 8.0 11.0 16.5 OR : 2.7 5.8 5.0 2.4 5.8 4.7 SD 1/ : 4.0 12.2 3.9 11.5 WA : 5.4 9.5 17.0 5.4 9.5 17.0 : Total : 58.5 112.7 150.8 55.8 102.2 138.9 : Other : CA : 10.0 8.0 8.8 10.0 8.0 8.8 CO : 13.8 8.0 8.0 13.0 7.0 7.5 ID : 0.6 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.8 1.5 KS : 5.5 0.7 1.5 5.1 0.5 1.4 MI : 11.0 19.0 7.0 11.0 18.0 3.5 MN : 8.0 3.7 4.5 5.6 3.5 4.0 MT : 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 NE : 2.0 3.7 3.6 1.6 3.4 3.5 NY : 1.8 2.9 1.8 1.7 2.9 1.7 ND : 5.0 6.5 4.0 3.3 5.5 3.5 OR : 4.6 2.4 2.4 4.3 2.3 2.4 SD 1/ : 1.5 2.5 1.5 2.5 TX : 15.5 11.5 9.0 14.6 9.8 8.0 WA : 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 WY : 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.9 0.9 0.9 : Total : 81.3 71.4 56.8 74.2 65.6 50.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 1999-2001 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre 2/ : Production 2/ and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : Small Red : ID : 2,120 2,100 2,240 405 147 83 MI : 2,070 1,410 420 310 113 27 WA : 2,310 2,410 2,070 185 53 62 : Total : 2,138 1,820 1,303 900 313 172 : Cranberry : CA : 960 1,060 2,330 24 37 35 ID : 1,920 1,790 1,540 23 25 40 MI : 1,600 1,520 580 496 380 70 MN : 1,420 1,400 1,400 34 7 7 : Total : 1,555 1,477 916 577 449 152 : Black : CA : 1,000 500 10 5 CO : 2,000 20 ID : 2,150 2,180 2,170 103 24 13 MI : 2,090 1,580 640 2,260 840 335 MN : 1,530 1,330 1,230 150 57 16 NE : 1,800 2,250 2,250 115 18 18 NY : 1,570 1,500 940 141 78 59 ND : 1,340 1,280 1,600 496 282 288 WA : 2,380 2,670 2,500 76 32 50 : Total : 1,871 1,508 962 3,371 1,336 779 : Blackeye : CA : 2,010 2,160 2,330 775 330 280 TX : 1,700 900 1,500 527 52 233 : Total : 1,873 1,810 1,865 1,302 382 513 : Garbanzo : CA : 1,730 1,460 1,260 285 343 428 ID : 1,260 1,460 1,470 147 410 412 MT : 1,130 730 950 133 150 200 NE : 1,400 87 ND : 1,100 1,320 1,400 88 145 231 OR : 920 1,330 1,340 22 77 63 SD 1/ : 1,670 1,250 65 144 WA : 1,110 1,240 1,200 60 118 204 : Total : 1,317 1,280 1,274 735 1,308 1,769 : Other : CA : 1,180 1,430 1,990 118 114 175 CO : 2,150 1,600 1,600 280 112 120 ID : 2,170 2,000 2,070 13 16 31 KS : 1,860 2,000 1,790 95 10 25 MI : 1,860 1,310 570 205 235 20 MN : 1,340 1,260 1,530 75 44 61 MT : 2,400 1,000 1,000 12 5 5 NE : 2,000 2,210 2,000 32 75 70 NY : 1,240 1,660 760 21 48 13 ND : 1,520 1,530 1,400 50 84 49 OR : 1,910 2,300 2,080 82 53 52 SD 1/ : 1,800 2,200 27 55 TX : 1,110 1,000 880 162 98 70 WA : 2,100 2,200 2,000 21 22 14 WY : 1,950 2,110 2,220 37 19 20 : Total : 1,621 1,466 1,548 1,203 962 780 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates began in 2000. 2/ Clean Basis. Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1999-2000 and Forecasted December 1, 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds Improved Varieties 1/ : AL : 7,000 10,000 10,000 AZ : 22,800 14,500 21,000 AR 2/ : 1,500 650 1,400 CA 2/ : 1,900 3,400 3,100 FL 2/ : 1,100 1,200 2,800 GA : 85,000 65,000 80,000 LA : 4,000 3,500 4,000 MS 2/ : 3,500 2,500 4,000 NM : 52,000 35,000 60,000 NC 2/ : 800 1,400 2,500 OK : 3,000 200 2,000 SC 2/ : 1,800 1,200 2,500 TX : 35,000 22,000 45,000 : US : 219,400 160,550 238,300 : Native & Seedling : AL : 6,000 5,000 5,000 AR 2/ : 2,300 250 1,400 FL 2/ : 2,600 2,100 2,500 GA : 35,000 15,000 15,000 KS 2/ : 5,000 550 2,600 LA : 18,000 14,500 12,000 MS 2/ : 1,500 1,000 2,000 NC 2/ : 400 200 500 OK : 60,000 2,300 13,000 SC 2/ : 900 400 1,000 TX : 55,000 8,000 25,000 : US : 186,700 49,300 80,000 : All Pecans : AL : 13,000 15,000 15,000 AZ : 22,800 14,500 21,000 AR 2/ : 3,800 900 2,800 CA 2/ : 1,900 3,400 3,100 FL 2/ : 3,700 3,300 5,300 GA : 120,000 80,000 95,000 KS 2/ : 5,000 550 2,600 LA : 22,000 18,000 16,000 MS 2/ : 5,000 3,500 6,000 NM : 52,000 35,000 60,000 NC 2/ : 1,200 1,600 3,000 OK : 63,000 2,500 15,000 SC 2/ : 2,700 1,600 3,500 TX : 90,000 30,000 70,000 : US : 406,100 209,850 318,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 1999-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :-------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres -- --- Tons --- -------- 1,000 Tons ------- : For Sugar : FL : 427.0 448.0 38.3 35.5 15,505 16,354 15,904 HI : 32.6 21.4 72.5 89.5 2,892 2,364 1,915 LA : 465.0 460.0 29.7 32.0 14,225 13,811 14,720 TX : 45.5 44.5 38.8 33.0 955 1,765 1,469 : US : 970.1 973.9 35.4 34.9 33,577 34,294 34,008 : For Seed : FL : 18.0 17.0 38.4 38.0 595 691 646 HI : 1.8 1.8 37.8 31.5 68 68 57 LA : 35.0 35.0 29.7 32.0 981 1,040 1,120 TX : 0.8 1.5 30.0 25.0 78 24 38 : US : 55.6 55.3 32.8 33.7 1,722 1,823 1,861 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 445.0 465.0 38.3 35.6 16,100 17,045 16,550 HI : 34.4 23.2 70.7 85.0 2,960 2,432 1,972 LA : 500.0 495.0 29.7 32.0 15,206 14,851 15,840 TX : 46.3 46.0 38.6 32.8 1,033 1,789 1,507 : US : 1,025.7 1,029.2 35.2 34.9 35,299 36,117 35,869 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Coffee: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Hawaii 1999-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- :1999-00:2000-01:2001-02:1999-00:2000-01:2001-02:1999-00:2000-01:2001-02 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Acres ------- ------- Pounds ------ ---- 1,000 Pounds ---- : HI : 6,400 6,800 6,300 1,560 1,280 1,210 10,000 8,700 7,600 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Parchment basis. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2000-2001 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,864.0 4,967.0 5,213.0 4,289.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 79,545.0 76,009.0 72,732.0 69,191.0 Corn for Silage : 5,868.0 Hay, All : 59,854.0 63,833.0 Alfalfa : 23,077.0 23,750.0 All Other : 36,777.0 40,083.0 Oats : 4,477.0 4,403.0 2,329.0 1,905.0 Proso Millet : 440.0 550.0 370.0 Rice : 3,060.0 3,317.0 3,039.0 3,290.0 Rye : 1,329.0 1,328.0 296.0 255.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,195.0 10,047.0 7,723.0 8,777.0 Sorghum for Silage : 265.0 Wheat, All : 62,629.0 59,617.0 53,133.0 48,653.0 Winter : 43,393.0 41,078.0 35,072.0 31,295.0 Durum : 3,937.0 2,910.0 3,572.0 2,789.0 Other Spring : 15,299.0 15,629.0 14,489.0 14,569.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,567.0 1,611.0 1,509.0 1,565.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 536.0 556.0 517.0 545.0 Mustard Seed : 46.0 38.7 42.9 37.2 Peanuts : 1,536.8 1,474.0 1,336.0 1,390.5 Rapeseed : 4.0 2.5 3.9 2.4 Safflower : 215.0 175.0 197.0 165.0 Soybeans for Beans : 74,266.0 75,216.0 72,408.0 74,137.0 Sunflowers : 2,840.0 2,750.0 2,647.0 2,660.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 15,517.2 16,194.0 13,053.0 13,939.5 Upland : 15,347.0 15,959.0 12,884.0 13,699.0 Amer-Pima : 170.2 235.0 169.0 240.5 Sugarbeets : 1,565.2 1,368.1 1,374.3 1,249.9 Sugarcane : 1,025.7 1,029.2 Tobacco : 472.4 443.1 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 5.2 15.8 4.1 7.1 Dry Edible Beans : 1,758.2 1,428.4 1,607.5 1,250.2 Dry Edible Peas : 188.0 205.8 179.0 193.3 Lentils : 217.0 201.0 214.0 198.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.8 6.3 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.3 0.4 Hops : 36.1 35.9 Peppermint Oil : 89.5 Potatoes, All : 1,383.7 1,263.4 1,348.0 1,237.1 Winter : 17.2 16.8 17.0 14.0 Spring : 77.4 74.1 75.6 72.5 Summer : 66.1 61.4 63.2 59.2 Fall : 1,223.0 1,111.1 1,192.2 1,091.4 Spearmint Oil : 21.7 Sweet Potatoes : 98.0 95.9 94.9 93.1 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2000-2001 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 61.1 58.2 318,728 249,590 Corn for Grain : " : 137.1 138.0 9,968,358 9,545,513 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.8 98,538 Hay, All : " : 2.54 2.54 152,183 162,303 Alfalfa : " : 3.48 3.44 80,347 81,628 All Other : " : 1.95 2.01 71,836 80,675 Oats : Bu : 64.2 61.3 149,545 116,856 Proso Millet : " : 19.8 7,320 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,281 6,374 190,872 209,709 Rye : Bu : 28.3 27.3 8,386 6,971 Sorghum for Grain : " : 60.9 61.2 470,070 536,755 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 10.8 2,863 Wheat, All : Bu : 42.0 40.2 2,232,460 1,957,643 Winter : " : 44.7 43.5 1,566,023 1,361,479 Durum : " : 30.7 30.0 109,805 83,556 Other Spring : " : 38.4 35.2 556,632 512,608 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,337 1,434 2,016,951 2,243,520 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,435.6 7,532.2 Flaxseed : Bu : 20.8 10,730 Mustard Seed : Lb : 852 36,570 Peanuts : " : 2,444 2,990 3,265,505 4,157,400 Rapeseed : " : 1,474 5,750 Safflower : " : 1,434 282,545 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 38.1 39.4 2,757,810 2,922,914 Sunflowers : Lb : 1,339 1,318 3,544,428 3,506,180 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 632 691 17,188.3 20,064.0 Upland 2/ : " : 626 681 16,799.2 19,436.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,105 1,253 389.1 628.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 23.6 20.7 32,436 25,899 Sugarcane : " : 35.2 34.9 36,117 35,869 Tobacco : Lb : 2,229 2,355 1,052,998 1,043,642 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,780 1,338 73 95 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,643 1,568 26,409 19,602 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,955 1,966 3,499 3,800 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,415 1,480 3,029 2,930 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 680 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,280 1,210 8,700 7,600 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 50,000 45,000 13,500 16,200 Hops : " : 1,871 1,845 67,577 66,217 Peppermint Oil : " : 77 6,926 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 381 357 513,621 441,848 Winter : " : 292 294 4,960 4,115 Spring : " : 290 269 21,921 19,500 Summer : " : 304 296 19,236 17,503 Fall : " : 392 367 467,504 400,730 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 101 2,199 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 145 13,794 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 7,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2000-2002 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,762 2,469 2,518 K-Early Citrus (FL) : " : 5 2 1 Lemons : " : 840 1,000 992 Oranges : " : 12,997 12,390 12,542 Tangelos (FL) : " : 99 95 104 Tangerines : " : 458 369 421 Temples (FL) : " : 88 56 63 : : Non-Citrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 10,648.7 9,560.4 Apricots : Ton : 98.9 81.2 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 29,000.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,658.0 6,471.9 Olives (CA) : " : 53.0 125.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 54,500.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,599.8 2,537.3 Pears : Ton : 967.2 915.5 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 219.0 155.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 23.9 23.2 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 703,000 850,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 22.5 48.0 Pecans : Lb : 209,850 318,300 Pistachios (CA) : " : 243,000 200,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 239.0 280.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,231 1,049 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2000-2001 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,373,100 2,010,100 2,109,650 1,735,720 Corn for Grain 2/ :32,191,070 30,760,080 29,433,910 28,000,910 Corn for Silage : 2,374,720 Hay, All 3/ : 24,222,320 25,832,580 Alfalfa : 9,339,030 9,611,390 All Other : 14,883,280 16,221,190 Oats : 1,811,800 1,781,850 942,520 770,930 Proso Millet : 178,060 222,580 149,740 Rice : 1,238,350 1,342,360 1,229,850 1,331,430 Rye : 537,830 537,430 119,790 103,200 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,721,120 4,065,920 3,125,420 3,551,960 Sorghum for Silage : 107,240 Wheat, All 3/ :25,345,330 24,126,400 21,502,390 19,689,380 Winter :17,560,710 16,623,860 14,193,290 12,664,770 Durum : 1,593,260 1,177,650 1,445,550 1,128,680 Other Spring : 6,191,350 6,324,900 5,863,550 5,895,930 : Oilseeds : Canola : 634,150 651,960 610,680 633,340 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 216,910 225,010 209,220 220,560 Mustard Seed : 18,620 15,660 17,360 15,050 Peanuts : 621,930 596,510 540,670 562,720 Rapeseed : 1,620 1,010 1,580 970 Safflower : 87,010 70,820 79,720 66,770 Soybeans for Beans :30,054,710 30,439,160 29,302,790 30,002,500 Sunflowers : 1,149,320 1,112,900 1,071,210 1,076,480 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 6,279,660 6,553,550 5,282,420 5,641,180 Upland : 6,210,780 6,458,450 5,214,030 5,543,850 Amer-Pima : 68,880 95,100 68,390 97,330 Sugarbeets : 633,420 553,660 556,170 505,820 Sugarcane : 415,090 416,510 Tobacco : 191,190 179,330 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 2,100 6,390 1,660 2,870 Dry Edible Beans : 711,530 578,060 650,540 505,940 Dry Edible Peas : 76,080 83,290 72,440 78,230 Lentils : 87,820 81,340 86,600 80,130 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,750 2,550 Ginger Root (HI) : 110 150 Hops : 14,620 14,520 Peppermint Oil : 36,220 Potatoes, All 3/ : 559,970 511,290 545,520 500,640 Winter : 6,960 6,800 6,880 5,670 Spring : 31,320 29,990 30,590 29,340 Summer : 26,750 24,850 25,580 23,960 Fall : 494,940 449,650 482,470 441,680 Spearmint Oil : 8,780 Sweet Potatoes : 39,660 38,810 38,410 37,680 Taro (HI) 4/ : 190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2000-2001 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.29 3.13 6,939,480 5,434,180 Corn for Grain : 8.60 8.66 253,207,960 242,467,200 Corn for Silage : 37.64 89,392,170 Hay, All 2/ : 5.70 5.70 138,058,100 147,238,800 Alfalfa : 7.80 7.70 72,889,570 74,051,680 All Other : 4.38 4.51 65,168,520 73,187,130 Oats : 2.30 2.20 2,170,640 1,696,160 Proso Millet : 1.11 166,010 Rice : 7.04 7.14 8,657,810 9,512,240 Rye : 1.78 1.72 213,010 177,070 Sorghum for Grain : 3.82 3.84 11,940,330 13,634,210 Sorghum for Silage : 24.22 2,597,270 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.83 2.71 60,757,600 53,278,310 Winter : 3.00 2.93 42,620,160 37,053,390 Durum : 2.07 2.01 2,988,400 2,274,020 Other Spring : 2.58 2.37 15,149,040 13,950,900 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.50 1.61 914,870 1,017,640 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,838,280 6,833,100 Flaxseed : 1.30 272,550 Mustard Seed : 0.96 16,590 Peanuts : 2.74 3.35 1,481,210 1,885,770 Rapeseed : 1.65 2,610 Safflower : 1.61 128,160 Soybeans for Beans : 2.56 2.65 75,055,290 79,548,680 Sunflowers : 1.50 1.48 1,607,730 1,590,380 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.71 0.77 3,742,310 4,368,420 Upland : 0.70 0.76 3,657,590 4,231,690 Amer-Pima : 1.24 1.40 84,720 136,730 Sugarbeets : 52.91 46.45 29,425,440 23,495,180 Sugarcane : 78.93 78.13 32,764,790 32,539,810 Tobacco : 2.50 2.64 477,630 473,390 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 2.00 1.50 3,310 4,310 Dry Edible Beans : 1.84 1.76 1,197,890 889,130 Dry Edible Peas : 2.19 2.20 158,710 172,370 Lentils : 1.59 1.66 137,390 132,900 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 30,840 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.43 1.35 3,950 3,450 Ginger Root (HI) : 56.04 50.44 6,120 7,350 Hops : 2.10 2.07 30,650 30,040 Peppermint Oil : 0.09 3,140 Potatoes, All 2/ : 42.71 40.03 23,297,460 20,041,890 Winter : 32.70 32.94 224,980 186,650 Spring : 32.50 30.15 994,320 884,510 Summer : 34.11 33.14 872,530 793,920 Fall : 43.95 41.15 21,205,630 18,176,810 Spearmint Oil : 0.11 1,000 Sweet Potatoes : 16.29 625,690 Taro (HI) 3/ : 3,180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2001 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2000-2002 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,505,640 2,239,840 2,284,290 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 4,540 1,810 910 Lemons : 762,040 907,180 899,930 Oranges : 11,790,680 11,240,020 11,377,910 Tangelos (FL) : 89,810 86,180 94,350 Tangerines : 415,490 334,750 381,920 Temples (FL) : 79,830 50,800 57,150 : Non-Citrus : Apples : 4,830,170 4,336,520 Apricots : 89,720 73,660 Bananas (HI) : 13,150 Grapes : 6,947,190 5,871,210 Olives (CA) : 48,080 113,400 Papayas (HI) : 24,720 Peaches : 1,179,250 1,150,900 Pears : 877,380 830,530 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 198,670 140,610 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 21,680 21,050 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 318,880 385,550 Hazelnuts : 20,410 43,540 Pecans : 95,190 144,380 Pistachios (CA) : 110,220 90,720 Walnuts (CA) : 216,820 254,010 Maple Syrup : 6,150 5,240 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002. November Weather Summary Mid- to late-November storm systems erased autumn dryness across the southern Great Plains and upper Midwest, but largely bypassed winter wheat areas in Montana and the east-central Great Plains, including portions of Kansas and Oklahoma. Mostly dry weather also persisted in the East, hampering winter grain development and contributing to wildfire activity. In contrast, heavy rain and strong thunderstorms struck areas from the western Gulf Coast region to the lower Ohio River Valley, including the Mississippi Delta, flooding fields, halting fieldwork, and causing localized wind damage. Meanwhile in the West, a series of storms boosted topsoil moisture for winter grains and blanketed high-elevation areas with heavy snow. Although the precipitation eased long-term drought across northern California, the Great Basin, and the Pacific Northwest, reservoir supplies remained limited due to previously dry conditions dating to the spring of 2000. Cold weather was confined to the western half of the nation toward month's end, boosting November temperatures at least 10 degrees F above normal in the upper Midwest. In fact, more than two dozen cities from the western Corn Belt to the northern mid-Atlantic region set November average-temperature records. November Agricultural Summary The end of the harvest season quickly approached, as dry weather aided progress across most of the Nation during the first half of the month. Seeding of winter wheat and other winter crops also neared completion early in the month, although abnormally dry soils hindered planting along the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Moisture shortages increased across most of the Great Plains early in the month, but a midmonth storm provided beneficial moisture for developing winter crops across much of the southern Great Plains. Scattered light precipitation periodically boosted moisture supplies in parts of the Pacific Northwest and Southwest, and prevented winter wheat deterioration on the central High Plains. However, moisture shortages increased crop stress in the southern High Plains, the northern Great Plains, and along the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Warm weather and adequate topsoil moisture supplies supported winter grain development in the Corn Belt. Warm weather stimulated root development and growth of winter grains and forages where adequate moisture supplies were available. Rain halted cotton harvest and other fieldwork in the Southeast late in the month, but the precipitation provided critical moisture for germinating and establishing winter wheat along the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Winter wheat seeding progressed about 1 week ahead of last year's slow pace and slightly ahead of the 5-year average. Seeding progressed with few rain interruptions, but dry soils limited planting in parts of the southern Great Plains. Planting was also active in the lower Mississippi Valley, Atlantic Coastal Plains, and California. In North Carolina, planting progressed ahead of normal despite topsoil moisture shortages. By November 11, planting was virtually complete in the Great Plains and rapidly approached completion in the Corn Belt. Temperatures were favorable for development across most of the Nation during November, but emergence and growth were spotty and uneven due to topsoil moisture shortages, especially in Kansas, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. Ample moisture aided development across most of the Corn Belt. Occasional light showers prevented serious crop deterioration on the central High Plains and in the Pacific Northwest. Heavy rain boosted soil moisture reserves and promoted emergence and growth in the southern Great Plains near midmonth. However, the precipitation varied from light, soaking showers across most of Oklahoma and eastern Texas, to persistent downpours that flooded streams and low-lying areas in central and northern Texas. Fields in California and the interior Pacific Northwest received beneficial precipitation after midmonth, but moisture reserves remained low in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Along the Atlantic Coastal Plains, fields received critical moisture for germination and root development near the end of the month. Dry weather supported the corn harvest across most of the Corn Belt and Great Plains. Growers in Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio picked about one-fourth of their crop during the week ended November 4. Harvest was also very active in the Dakota's early in the month. In the central Corn Belt and Great Lakes region, harvest accelerated after excess moisture from late-October's heavy rains drained from fields. However, progress remained behind the 5-year average in Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin until midmonth. Growers in Kansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas completed their harvest before midmonth. By November 18, harvest was 97 percent complete and was on pace with last year's early finish. The soybean harvest was aided by warm, dry weather in the Corn Belt, lower Mississippi Valley, and Atlantic Coastal Plain during the first half of the month. By November 11, harvest was 96 percent complete, compared with 97 percent on the same date last year and the average of 95 percent. Harvest was most active along the Ohio and Missouri River Valleys, where about one-fifth of the Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee acreage was reaped during the week ended November 4. Harvest progressed behind normal in many parts of the Corn Belt, especially around the Great Lakes. Progress lagged far behind normal in Michigan and well behind normal in Indiana and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, harvest progressed far ahead of normal on the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Harvest neared completion several days earlier than normal in Arkansas and Kentucky. The harvest season ended in Nebraska and the Dakotas by November 11, and very few fields remained unharvested in Iowa, Kansas, and Minnesota. Cotton picking progressed slightly ahead of normal throughout the month, as picking steadily advanced in most areas. However, widespread, persistent rain suspended progress in the southern Great Plains for several days near midmonth. Elsewhere, dry weather aided harvest throughout the Southeast during most of the month. In Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia, harvest progressed well ahead of the 5-year average. South Carolina's harvest lagged behind normal at the beginning of the month, but exceeded the 5-year average by the end of the month. Meanwhile, harvest progressed behind normal in Alabama. In the lower Mississippi Valley, harvest was virtually complete on November 25. In the Southwest, harvest was aided by dry weather most of the month, although rain occasionally interrupted progress in California. Picking continued without interruption in Arizona. Sorghum harvest progressed with few rain delays in the Great Plains and Corn Belt. As the month began, harvest was most active in Nebraska. Harvest neared completion well ahead of normal in Illinois and Kansas and progressed far ahead of normal in Colorado and New Mexico. As midmonth approached, harvest neared completion in the central and northern Great Plains but remained active on the High Plains, especially in New Mexico and Oklahoma. Warm, dry weather aided the peanut harvest in the southern Great Plains early in the month. However, heavy rain slowed progress for several days near midmonth, especially in Texas. Along the Atlantic Coastal Plain, harvest was virtually complete by November 11. In Alabama, digging lagged throughout the month. The sugarbeet harvest neared completion early in the month, and was virtually complete by midmonth. In Michigan, about one-third of the acreage was harvested during the week ended November 4, as digging rapidly accelerated when warm, dry weather replaced October's excessive wetness. Michigan's dry weather pattern continued through midmonth, aiding efforts to finish the harvest. Dry weather also supported harvest in Idaho during the first half of the month. The sunflower harvest continued with only minor rain delays in the four major sunflower-producing States. Harvest was most active in Colorado, where growers reaped more than one-fourth of their crop during the week ended November 4. Harvest was virtually complete in Kansas and the Dakota's by midmonth. Harvest neared completion well ahead of normal in North Dakota and slightly ahead of normal in South Dakota. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.7 million acres, is down 200,000 acres from the November estimate but up 6 percent from last year. The reduction to harvested acreage in Texas was the result of acreage information from the Objective Yield Survey and administrative data. American-Pima harvested acreage, at 240,500 acres, is unchanged from November but 42 percent above the 2000 crop season. Extremely dry conditions throughout the Southeastern States increased the efforts focused on harvesting cotton, as many farmers delayed small grain planting due to the lack of moisture. By the time rains were received during late November, the pace of cotton harvest had exceeded the 5-year average in all of the Southeastern States except for Alabama. On November 1, harvest in Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina was behind normal due to a slow developing crop; however, by December 1, only Alabama remained behind normal harvest pace but they made considerable progress during the month. Despite a slow developing crop and rain delays during early harvest periods, the Delta States had virtually completed harvest by the end of November. Producers in Missouri and Tennessee were pleasantly surprised by record setting cotton yields. If the current yields are realized, Missouri cotton farmers will surpass the previous record of 856 pounds per harvested acre, set in 1994, by 7 pounds. Tennessee producers, with a yield of 762 pounds per harvested acre, will surpass the previous record, established in 1994, by 36 pounds. Objective yield data show boll weights in Arkansas rank as the third heaviest since 1992, increasing from November. Mississippi and Louisiana's boll weights are the second and fourth heaviest, respectively, in the past 10 years. Harvest in the Southwestern States continued on pace throughout November. In Texas, rains during the middle of the month resulted in minor delays as producers had to wait for open bolls to dry out. A hard, killing frost occurred during the week of November 20 and will aid in defoliating the remaining cotton. Data from the Objective Yield Survey showed Texas' weight per boll ranks sixth out of the past 10 years. Harvest progress of upland cotton in California and Arizona continued with only brief rain delays during November. Warm, dry weather allowed Arizona producers to remain on pace with the 5-year average. Harvest activities were slowed in California due to wet field conditions, but the pace remained well ahead of average. Some growers struggled to achieve plow down compliance before rain saturated the ground. Data from the Objective Yield Survey indicate California's weight per boll is the second lightest since 1992. American-Pima production is forecast at 628,000 bales, up 10,000 bales from the November forecast and up 61 percent from last year's output. The U.S. yield is estimated at a record high 1,253 pounds per harvested acre. If realized, this would be 125 pounds above the previous record established in 1999. Rains in California during late November and early December delayed harvest in some locations and resulted in some quality reductions. All cotton ginned totaled 15,498,450 running bales prior to December 1, compared with 13,619,100 running bales ginned by the same date last year and 13,379,100 running bales ginned in 1999. NOTE: Cotton acreage, yield, and production estimates for January will only be published in the Crop Production - Annual report. The Crop Production - Annual report will be released on January 11, 2002. Previously these estimates were also published in the January Crop Production report. Cotton Ginnings will be released simultaneously with the Crop Production - Annual report. Tobacco: U.S. burley tobacco production for 2001 is forecast at 354 million pounds, down 5 percent from the November 1 forecast and 2 percent lower than last year. Burley growers plan to harvest 166,800 acres, down 5 percent from last month and 10 percent below a year ago. Yields are expected to average 2,122 pounds per acre, 11 pounds below the November forecast but up 165 pounds from 2000. Burley markets for contract sales opened on November 1 and auction sales opened on November 13. The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service reports that as of December 7, total burley tobacco sales for the season totaled 189 million pounds. Of this total, 69 million pounds have gone through the auction markets, while the remaining 120 million pounds are attributed to contract sales. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 4.85 million pounds for November, 1 percent higher than last month and 9 percent more than November 2000. Area in crop totaled 2,710 acres, 1 percent more than last month but down slightly from a year ago. Harvested area, at 1,930 acres, was virtually unchanged from October but 14 percent more than a year ago. Weather conditions during November were generally wet with occasional sunshine over major papaya producing areas. A winter storm toward the end of the month brought heavy rains. Winds toppled some trees in exposed areas. Papaya ringspot virus incidence was light in November. However, more Phytophthora disease was noticed due to wetter conditions. Dry Beans: Dry edible bean production is estimated at 19.6 million cwt for 2001, up 1 percent from the October 1 forecast but 26 percent below a year ago. This is the lowest dry bean production since 1988, when production was 19.3 million cwt. Area for harvest is estimated at 1.25 million acres, 5 percent below the previous estimate and 22 percent below a year ago. The average yield is estimated at 1,568 pounds per acre, down 75 pounds from last year. Of the 18 dry bean States, 14 expect lower production than a year ago. Production is down 81 percent in Michigan and off 46 percent in New York from a year ago. Minnesota's farmers harvested 34 percent fewer beans than last year, while Wisconsin's output fell 29 percent, and Wyoming's production is cut by 39 percent. Reductions from last year also came in California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oregon, and Washington. Dry summer weather and water shortages hurt dry bean growth in the North East, Midwest, parts of the Western Plains, and the West. Drought conditions severely limited the Michigan dry bean crop with average yield forecasts falling to their lowest level since 1936. Late August rains came too late to salvage the Michigan crop and a killing frost in early October ended regrowth of late beans. Compared with a year ago yields per acre are down 900 pounds in Michigan, off 590 pounds in New York, down 470 pounds in South Dakota, 200 pounds lower in Wisconsin, and off 100 pounds in Minnesota. Yields are also lower in California, Colorado, Montana, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Improved yields are noted in Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oregon, and Texas. Production by class is down more than 50 percent from a year ago for navies, cranberries, and baby limas. Blacks are down 42 percent, small reds are off 45 percent, small whites are down 41 percent, and light red kidneys fell 38 percent. Large limas are down 29 percent, dark red kidneys fell 28 percent, pintos tumbled 20 percent, and great northern slipped 17 percent from a year ago. Production is up for blackeyed beans, garbanzos, and pinks. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2001-02 grapefruit crop for the United States is 2.52 million tons, down 2 percent from the October 1 forecast but 2 percent higher than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast is 47.0 million boxes (2.00 million tons), 2 percent less than the October 1 forecast but 2 percent above last season. Dry conditions during the past two months and the persistent above average temperatures have contributed to the reduction. The all white grapefruit forecast, which includes seedless and seedy varieties, is reduced to 19.0 million boxes (808,000 tons). If realized, the crop size will be down 5 percent from the previous forecast, but 2 percent above last season. The colored seedless utilization is forecast at 28.0 million boxes (1.19 million tons), unchanged from October but 3 percent more than the previous season. Forecasts for Arizona, California, and Texas are carried forward from October. Tangelos: Florida's 2001-02 tangelo forecast is unchanged at 2.30 million boxes (104,000 tons). This would be 10 percent more than last season's utilized production. Fruit size and loss from droppage are above average, similar to the October 1 forecast. Tangerines: The 2001-02 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 421,000 tons, down 6 percent from the October 1 forecast but 14 percent higher than last season's utilization of 369,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is reduced to 6.40 million boxes (304,000 tons), down 9 percent from the previous forecast but 14 percent higher than last season. Dry weather in addition to above normal temperatures have been detrimental to crop condition. Average fruit size in the early variety tangerines was near the 10-season average in September, but is now next to the smallest as of the end of November. Loss from droppage has increased from what was expected in October. The later season Honey tangerines are expected to be larger on average than in any of the previous 10 seasons. However, loss from droppage accelerated with the continued above average temperatures. Arizona and California forecasts are carried forward from the October forecast. Temples: Florida's 2001-02 Temple forecast is 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons), unchanged from October. If realized, it will be 12 percent higher than the 1.25 million boxes (56,000 tons) recorded last season but 28 percent less than the 1999-2000 season. The very small size fruit has grown as expected and loss from droppage remains slightly above average. K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2001-02 is 30,000 boxes (1,350 tons), down 20,000 boxes from the October forecast and 10,000 boxes fewer than last season. If realized, this will be the smallest crop of record. Florida Citrus: Most of Florida's citrus belt during November was unseasonably warm and drier than normal. Most areas reported below average rainfall except in a few coastal counties. By the end of the month, there was widespread irrigation in all areas. New growth has been limited to a few young tree groves in the southern part of the State. The warm temperatures and sunny days have helped to mature the early and midseason fruit. Picking crews were very active during early November moving fruit into the packinghouses for the Thanksgiving markets. By the end of the month, all of the processing plants were open and taking both field run fruit and packinghouse eliminations. Caretakers have been very busy cutting cover crops prior to harvesting and for fire protection. Growers continue to remove and burn dead trees. California Citrus: The navel orange harvest was slowed due to excessive moisture. Satsuma tangerines were harvested. Lemon picking was active. Pummelo and Oro Blanco grapefruit were harvested in the San Joaquin Valley. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Pruning, cultivating, and spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Some older variety trees and vines were removed in preparation for planting replacements. Picking of grapes for fresh market was delayed in the San Joaquin Valley due to rain. Plastic covering was used to protect vines still bearing fruit. Pomegranate and persimmon harvesting continued. Pink Lady apples were also harvested. Pecans: The December 1 forecast for 2001 pecan utilized production is 318 million pounds (in-shell basis), down 10 percent from the October 1 forecast but 52 percent above last year's crop. Excellent early season growing conditions in some locations combined with the alternate bearing cycle have contributed to a sharply larger crop size. However, dry conditions in many pecan producing States during summer caused early nut drop, and increased disease and insect problems. Low prices are limiting the harvest, reducing utilized production. Improved varieties are expected to make up 238 million pounds or three quarters of the total, while the Native and seedling varieties make up the difference. The Georgia forecast, at 95.0 million pounds, is 10 percent below the October 1 forecast but 19 percent above last year's crop. Most of the increase is related to the alternate bearing cycle. Early, above normal rainfall had most producers anticipating one of the best crops in years. However, dry conditions during August and September dampened the prospect. The Texas production forecast is 70.0 million pounds, 7 percent below the previous forecast but more than twice last year's production. New Mexico's forecast, at 60.0 million pounds, is unchanged from the October forecast but up 71 percent from last year. Good to excellent growing conditions have continued into late fall. Trees continue to hold many nuts despite some late November winds. Arizona forecasts a 21.0 million pound pecan crop, unchanged from October but 45 percent above last year. Harvest is delayed due to the mild weather experienced in late fall. Oklahoma's forecast of 15.0 million pounds is 50 percent below the October forecast but 6 times the production of last year. Widespread dry conditions during late summer and fall combined with low prices contributed to this significant reduction to utilized production. The Louisiana forecast of 16.0 million pounds is reduced 30 percent from the October forecast and down 11 percent from 2000. A large crop was anticipated due to above normal soil moisture. However, low prices could keep many growers from harvesting their native pecans. Alabama pecan production, at 15.0 million pounds, remains unchanged from both the previous forecast and crop year 2000. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for 2001 is forecast at 35.9 million tons, 1 percent below the record high of 36.1 million tons set last year and 1 percent below the November 1 forecast. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 1.03 million acres for sugar and seed during the 2001 crop year, slightly more than last year's harvested acres. Yield is forecast at 34.9 tons per acre, 0.3 ton below 2000. Louisiana growers expect to harvest 495,000 acres for sugar and seed, down 1 percent from last year's record acreage. This is Louisiana's first year-to-year acreage reduction since 1996. In Florida, acres for harvest are expected to increase 4 percent from last year's level. If realized, Florida's harvested acreage would exceed the previous record high of 460,000 acres set in 1999. Nearly ideal weather aided harvest in Florida. Rain halted harvest in Louisiana near the end of the month, but progress exceeded last year and the average. Coffee: Hawaii coffee production is estimated at 7.60 million pounds (parchment basis) for the 2001-02 season, down 13 percent from the previous crop year. Harvested acreage is estimated at 6,300 acres, down 7 percent from the 2000-01 season. Some areas of Kona have higher than normal rainfall while other areas remain dry. The rainfall was inconsistent in that heavy showers were followed by long periods of dry weather. Heavy pruning also occurred in response to recent bumper harvests. The recent slump in global coffee prices has severely impacted the Hawaii coffee trade, including some closures and sales of coffee companies in Hawaii. Overall, the weather, heavy pruning, and low prices have resulted in a smaller crop and a shorter harvesting period. Reliability of December 1 Crop Production Forecast Survey Procedures: Objective Yield Surveys were conducted between November 25 and December 1 to gather information on expected yields as of December 1. The Objective Yield Surveys for cotton were conducted in producing States that usually account for approximately 75 percent of the U.S. production. At crop maturity, the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The Objective Yield Survey for oranges for the December 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield estimates for cotton and State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. For cotton, reports from cotton ginners in each State were also considered. For oranges, reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were used for setting estimates. The December 1 orange production forecasts for these three States are carried forward from October. Each cotton State Statistical Office and Florida, for oranges, submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published December 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. For cotton, a new estimate will be made in January followed by end-of-season revisions in May. Administrative records are reviewed and revisions are made, if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made, if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate. For oranges, the December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 cotton production forecast is 1.7 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current cotton production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 1.7 percent. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.0 percent. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 orange production forecast is 12.4 percent. However, if you exclude the six freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.5 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 12.4 percent or 4.5 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 21.5 percent or 7.9 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the December 1 cotton forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 206,000 bales, ranging from 26,000 to 479,000 bales. The December 1 forecast for cotton has been below the final estimate 10 times and above 10 times. Changes between the December 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 692,000 tons (345,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 4,000 tons to 2.39 million tons (4,000 tons to 752,000 tons, excluding freezes). The December 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 7 times and above 7 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the December 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Rhonda Brandt - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Roy Karkosh - Hay, Sorghum, Barley (202) 690-3234 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Nuts, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Fresh Vegetables, Mushrooms(202) 720-3250 Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4288 Jim Smith - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Peas (202) 720-2127 Darin Jantzi - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Betty Johnston - Nuts, Floriculture, Nursery(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on January 11, 2002. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. 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