Cr Pr 2-2 (1-02) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 11, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Virtually Unchanged The U.S. all orange January 1 forecast for the 2001-02 crop is 12.5 million tons, virtually unchanged from the December 1 forecast but up 1 percent from last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast remains at 231 million boxes (10.4 million tons), 3 percent more than the previous season. Weather conditions until the last of December had been mostly dry and warm. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 131 million boxes (5.90 million tons), the same as the December forecast. If realized, this production will be 2 percent higher than last season. Fruit size is the third smallest of the 10-season series. Loss from droppage is slightly above average. Florida's Valencia forecast is 100 million boxes (4.50 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 5 percent higher than last season's final utilization. Fruit size is slightly below average. Loss from droppage is below average. The all orange forecast for California, at 54.0 million boxes (2.03 million tons), is the same as the October 1 forecast but down 8 percent from the previous season. California's Navel orange harvest is 20 percent complete. Fruit size is larger than last season. The Texas all orange forecast is 1.90 million boxes (81,000 tons), down 300,000 boxes from the initial October forecast and 335,000 boxes less than last season. Arizona's all orange utilization is forecast at 700,000 boxes (26,000 tons), a decrease of 50,000 boxes from the previous forecast and 200,000 boxes below the final 2000-01 utilization. If realized, it will be the fifth consecutive season of declining utilization. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield is projected at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is an increase from December's projection of 1.55 gallons per box. The early and midseason portion is projected at 1.52 gallons per box, the same as last season. The Valencia portion is projected to yield 1.68 gallons per box versus last season's 1.65 final yield. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on January 11, 2002. Acting Secretary of Agriculture J. B. Penn Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Frederic A. Vogel Contents Page Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Hay Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 U.S. Weather Maps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2000-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :---------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Acres ------ --- Cwt --- 1,000 Cwt : Winter : CA : 9.0 7.0 9.0 7.0 310 300 2,880 2,790 2,100 FL : 7.8 6.8 5.0 6.5 265 275 2,080 1,325 1,788 : Total : 16.8 13.8 14.0 13.5 294 288 4,960 4,115 3,888 : Spring 1/ : AZ : 8.2 8.2 270 2,520 2,214 CA : 15.5 15.5 390 7,426 6,045 FL : 25.6 25.0 319 6,343 7,970 Hastings: 18.5 18.0 330 4,868 5,940 Other FL: 7.1 7.0 290 1,475 2,030 NC : 19.5 18.5 190 3,400 3,515 TX : 9.5 9.0 230 2,232 2,070 : Total : 78.3 76.2 286 21,921 21,814 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Nov 2/ : 2,720 2,710 1,695 1,930 4,430 4,100 Dec : 2,695 2,575 1,875 1,835 4,710 3,575 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. 2/ 2001 revised. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1999-2000, 2000-2001 and Forecasted January 1, 2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1999-00 : 2000-01 : 2001-02 : 1999-00 : 2000-01 : 2001-02 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 600 480 350 22 18 13 CA : 40,000 36,000 32,000 1,500 1,350 1,200 FL : 134,000 128,000 131,000 6,030 5,760 5,895 TX : 1,460 2,000 1,700 62 85 72 US : 176,060 166,480 165,050 7,614 7,213 7,180 Valencia : AZ : 500 420 350 19 16 13 CA : 24,000 23,000 22,000 900 862 825 FL : 99,000 95,300 100,000 4,455 4,289 4,500 TX : 200 235 200 9 10 9 US : 123,700 118,955 122,550 5,383 5,177 5,347 All : AZ : 1,100 900 700 41 34 26 CA : 64,000 59,000 54,000 2,400 2,212 2,025 FL : 233,000 223,300 231,000 10,485 10,049 10,395 TX : 1,660 2,235 1,900 71 95 81 US : 299,760 285,435 287,600 12,997 12,390 12,527 Temples : FL : 1,950 1,250 1,400 88 56 63 Grapefruit : White Seedless 4/ : FL : 20,900 18,700 19,000 888 795 808 Colored Seedless : FL : 31,900 27,300 28,000 1,356 1,160 1,190 Other 4/ : FL : 600 25 All : AZ : 450 250 200 15 8 7 CA : 7,200 6,500 6,200 241 218 208 FL : 53,400 46,000 47,000 2,269 1,955 1,998 TX : 5,930 7,200 7,300 237 288 292 US : 66,980 59,950 60,700 2,762 2,469 2,505 Tangerines : AZ 5/ : 850 650 650 32 24 24 CA 5/ : 2,500 2,100 2,300 94 79 86 FL : 7,000 5,600 6,400 332 266 304 US : 10,350 8,350 9,350 458 369 414 Lemons : AZ : 3,100 3,600 3,100 118 137 118 CA : 19,000 22,700 22,000 722 863 836 US : 22,100 26,300 25,100 840 1,000 954 Tangelos : FL : 2,200 2,100 2,300 99 95 104 K-Early Citrus : FL : 110 40 30 5 2 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ "Other" seedy grapefruit estimates discontinued after 1999-2000 crop. Included with white seedless beginning with the 2000-01 crop. 5/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States, December 1 and May 1, 1999-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dec 1 : May 1 State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 1/ : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : AL : 1,472 1,000 2,100 202 100 AZ : 184 250 223 27 33 AR : 1,900 2,150 2,280 500 270 CA : 2,285 1,954 1,961 381 180 CO : 2,900 1,770 1,990 690 286 CT : 47 82 59 8 21 DE : 15 29 16 6 4 FL : 550 450 510 80 25 GA : 1,245 950 1,599 240 190 ID : 2,617 2,857 2,568 257 265 IL : 1,600 1,700 1,600 410 340 IN : 1,316 1,629 1,311 290 342 IA : 4,700 4,500 4,300 1,150 700 KS : 5,800 4,500 5,600 1,400 500 KY : 4,006 5,316 4,214 577 1,439 LA : 502 415 1,096 91 30 ME : 138 145 137 23 40 MD : 300 525 355 65 61 MA : 84 108 105 17 30 MI : 2,110 3,460 3,450 1,170 1,000 MN : 5,490 4,446 4,213 1,570 960 MS : 1,350 850 1,833 135 45 MO : 5,997 5,392 6,989 1,445 799 MT : 4,448 3,168 3,600 1,011 427 NE : 4,900 3,500 4,800 1,500 500 NV : 867 801 776 290 112 NH : 65 66 50 11 14 NJ : 109 156 90 28 47 NM : 595 600 600 185 75 NY : 1,900 2,280 2,250 385 625 NC : 1,090 1,300 1,215 255 277 ND : 5,291 5,212 5,020 1,430 1,120 OH : 1,830 3,390 3,591 430 835 OK : 4,200 3,700 3,300 1,000 450 OR : 2,245 1,766 1,901 128 241 PA : 1,700 2,800 2,100 440 1,200 RI : 8 11 8 1 2 SC : 410 518 448 88 100 SD : 9,500 8,200 8,235 3,100 1,550 TN : 2,655 3,405 4,140 607 804 TX : 6,568 7,104 7,477 2,627 1,450 UT : 1,540 1,150 1,470 320 200 VT : 229 280 288 60 70 VA : 1,883 2,900 2,384 257 745 WA : 1,377 1,303 1,513 165 195 WV : 524 1,144 939 40 276 WI : 5,900 4,800 4,300 3,000 1,980 WY : 2,480 1,550 1,506 725 151 : US : 108,922 105,582 110,510 28,817 21,106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,967.0 4,289.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 75,752.0 68,808.0 Corn for Silage : 6,148.0 Hay, All : 63,511.0 Alfalfa : 23,812.0 All Other : 39,699.0 Oats : 4,403.0 1,905.0 Proso Millet : 650.0 580.0 Rice : 3,335.0 3,314.0 Rye : 1,328.0 255.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 10,252.0 8,584.0 Sorghum for Silage : 336.0 Wheat, All : 59,617.0 48,653.0 Winter : 41,078.0 41,031.0 31,295.0 Durum : 2,910.0 2,789.0 Other Spring : 15,629.0 14,569.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,494.0 1,455.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 585.0 578.0 Mustard Seed : 45.8 44.2 Peanuts : 1,543.0 1,400.5 Rapeseed : 3.7 3.1 Safflower : 188.0 177.0 Soybeans for Beans : 74,105.0 73,000.0 Sunflowers : 2,653.0 2,580.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 15,787.8 13,810.0 Upland : 15,527.0 13,551.0 Amer-Pima : 260.8 259.0 Sugarbeets : 1,371.1 1,243.7 Sugarcane : 1,029.2 Tobacco : 432.6 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 15.9 7.1 Dry Edible Beans : 1,429.9 1,243.0 Dry Edible Peas : 211.8 196.8 Lentils : 201.0 197.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.4 Hops : 35.9 Peppermint Oil : 78.5 Potatoes, All : 1,267.1 1,241.3 Winter : 16.8 13.8 14.0 13.5 Spring : 78.3 76.2 Summer : 60.9 58.6 Fall : 1,111.1 1,092.5 Spearmint Oil : 19.5 Sweet Potatoes : 97.9 93.5 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 58.2 249,590 Corn for Grain : " : 138.2 9,506,840 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.6 102,352 Hay, All : " : 2.47 156,703 Alfalfa : " : 3.37 80,266 All Other : " : 1.93 76,437 Oats : Bu : 61.3 116,856 Proso Millet : " : 33.2 19,250 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,429 213,045 Rye : Bu : 27.3 6,971 Sorghum for Grain : " : 59.9 514,524 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 11.1 3,728 Wheat, All : Bu : 40.2 1,957,643 Winter : " : 43.5 1,361,479 Durum : " : 30.0 83,556 Other Spring : " : 35.2 512,608 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,374 1,998,515 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 7,533.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 19.8 11,455 Mustard Seed : Lb : 930 41,106 Peanuts : " : 3,027 4,239,450 Rapeseed : " : 1,306 4,050 Safflower : " : 1,365 241,665 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 39.6 2,890,572 Sunflowers : Lb : 1,349 3,480,696 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 698 20,084.0 Upland 2/ : " : 687 19,406.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,257 678.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.7 25,754 Sugarcane : " : 33.8 34,801 Tobacco : Lb : 2,314 1,000,936 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,366 97 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,572 19,541 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,920 3,779 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,471 2,898 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 640 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,210 7,600 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 45,000 16,200 Hops : " : 1,861 66,832.1 Peppermint Oil : " : 81 6,343 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 358 444,766 Winter : " : 294 288 4,115 3,888 Spring : " : 286 21,814 Summer : " : 309 18,110 Fall : " : 367 400,727 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 105 2,052 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 154 14,355 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2000-2002 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,762 2,469 2,505 K-Early Citrus (FL) : " : 5 2 1 Lemons : " : 840 1,000 954 Oranges : " : 12,997 12,390 12,527 Tangelos (FL) : " : 99 95 104 Tangerines : " : 458 369 414 Temples (FL) : " : 88 56 63 : : Non-Citrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 10,648.7 9,560.4 Apricots : Ton : 98.9 81.2 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 29,000.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,658.0 6,471.9 Olives (CA) : " : 53.0 125.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 54,500.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,599.8 2,537.3 Pears : Ton : 967.2 915.5 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 219.0 155.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 23.9 23.2 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 703,000 850,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 22.5 48.0 Pecans : Lb : 209,850 318,300 Pistachios (CA) : " : 243,000 200,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 239.0 280.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,231 1,049 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,010,100 1,735,720 Corn for Grain 2/ :30,656,080 27,845,910 Corn for Silage : 2,488,030 Hay, All 3/ : 24,222,320 Alfalfa : 9,636,480 All Other : 16,065,790 Oats : 1,781,850 770,930 Proso Millet : 263,050 234,720 Rice : 1,349,640 1,341,140 Rye : 537,430 103,200 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 4,148,880 3,473,860 Sorghum for Silage : 135,980 Wheat, All 3/ :24,126,400 19,689,380 Winter :16,623,860 16,604,840 12,664,770 Durum : 1,177,650 1,128,680 Other Spring : 6,324,900 5,895,930 : Oilseeds : Canola : 604,610 588,820 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 236,740 233,910 Mustard Seed : 18,530 17,890 Peanuts : 624,440 566,770 Rapeseed : 1,500 1,250 Safflower : 76,080 71,630 Soybeans for Beans :29,989,550 29,542,370 Sunflowers : 1,073,640 1,044,100 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 6,389,160 5,588,770 Upland : 6,283,620 5,483,950 Amer-Pima : 105,540 104,810 Sugarbeets : 554,870 503,310 Sugarcane : 416,510 Tobacco : 175,090 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 6,430 2,870 Dry Edible Beans : 578,670 503,030 Dry Edible Peas : 85,710 79,640 Lentils : 81,340 79,720 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 Ginger Root (HI) : 150 Hops : 14,530 Peppermint Oil : 31,770 Potatoes, All 3/ : 512,780 502,340 Winter : 6,800 5,580 5,670 5,460 Spring : 31,690 30,840 Summer : 24,650 23,710 Fall : 449,650 442,120 Spearmint Oil : 7,890 Sweet Potatoes : 39,620 37,840 Taro (HI) 4/ : 180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.13 5,434,180 Corn for Grain : 8.67 241,484,860 Corn for Silage : 37.32 92,852,170 Hay, All 2/ : 5.53 142,158,570 Alfalfa : 7.56 72,816,090 All Other : 4.32 69,342,480 Oats : 2.20 1,696,160 Proso Millet : 1.86 436,580 Rice : 7.21 9,663,560 Rye : 1.72 177,070 Sorghum for Grain : 3.76 13,069,510 Sorghum for Silage : 24.87 3,381,980 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.71 53,278,310 Winter : 2.93 37,053,390 Durum : 2.01 2,274,020 Other Spring : 2.37 13,950,900 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.54 906,510 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,833,820 Flaxseed : 1.24 290,970 Mustard Seed : 1.04 18,650 Peanuts : 3.39 1,922,980 Rapeseed : 1.46 1,840 Safflower : 1.53 109,620 Soybeans for Beans : 2.66 78,668,480 Sunflowers : 1.51 1,578,820 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.78 4,372,780 Upland : 0.77 4,225,160 Amer-Pima : 1.41 147,620 Sugarbeets : 46.42 23,363,640 Sugarcane : 75.80 31,570,940 Tobacco : 2.59 454,020 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.53 4,400 Dry Edible Beans : 1.76 886,360 Dry Edible Peas : 2.15 171,410 Lentils : 1.65 131,450 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 29,030 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.35 3,450 Ginger Root (HI) : 50.44 7,350 Hops : 2.09 30,310 Peppermint Oil : 0.09 2,880 Potatoes, All 2/ : 40.16 20,174,250 Winter : 32.94 32.28 186,650 176,360 Spring : 32.09 989,470 Summer : 34.64 821,460 Fall : 41.11 18,176,670 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 930 Sweet Potatoes : 17.21 651,130 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2000-2002 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,505,640 2,239,840 2,272,500 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 4,540 1,810 910 Lemons : 762,040 907,180 865,450 Oranges : 11,790,680 11,240,020 11,364,300 Tangelos (FL) : 89,810 86,180 94,350 Tangerines : 415,490 334,750 375,570 Temples (FL) : 79,830 50,800 57,150 : Non-Citrus : Apples : 4,830,170 4,336,520 Apricots : 89,720 73,660 Bananas (HI) : 13,150 Grapes : 6,947,190 5,871,210 Olives (CA) : 48,080 113,400 Papayas (HI) : 24,720 Peaches : 1,179,250 1,150,900 Pears : 877,380 830,530 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 198,670 140,610 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 21,680 21,050 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 318,880 385,550 Hazelnuts : 20,410 43,540 Pecans : 95,190 144,380 Pistachios (CA) : 110,220 90,720 Walnuts (CA) : 216,820 254,010 Maple Syrup : 6,150 5,240 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002. December Weather Summary Near-record to record warmth carried over from November into the first 3 weeks of December, followed by the first large-scale cold outbreak of the season. Meanwhile, several precipitation anomalies from late November were repeated in early- to mid-December. These included unfavorably dry weather in the East, torrential rainfall from the western Gulf Coast region to the lower Ohio Valley, and drought-easing precipitation in northern California and the Northwest. Dry weather in the East, which was particularly severe in the southern Atlantic Coast Plain, further stressed pastures and winter grains. In sharp contrast, lowland flooding, standing water, and submerged winter wheat fields were concerns from eastern Texas to the lower Ohio Valley. Portions of the Delta netted more than 20 inches of rain in less than 4 weeks. However, little precipitation was observed on the Plains, keeping winter wheat's protective snow cover at a minimum and leaving the northern High Plains and much of the southern half of the region in need of moisture. In the Southwest, a drying trend during the second half of the year began to raise concerns about water supplies in 2002, but additional improvement was noted in much of California and the Northwest, where drought developed during the spring of 2000. Despite colder weather during the last week of December, monthly temperatures were above normal at nearly all locations east of the Rockies and averaged at least 10 degrees F above normal in portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Temperatures were within a few degrees of normal across most of the West, although some readings in some interior valley locations averaged as much as 6 degrees F below normal, in part due to a substantial snow cover. December Crop Summary Above-normal temperatures prevailed across most of the Nation during December, stimulating vegetative growth of winter crops and forages in the southern Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. Many winter wheat fields in the Corn Belt and central Great Plains remained green until after midmonth, although vegetative growth was slow due to sub-freezing nighttime temperatures. The abnormally warm weather also delayed the onset of freezing soil temperatures and extended the period for winter wheat root development. Parts of the central and northern Great Plains received light snowfall, but the warm weather pattern prevented accumulation of an adequate protective cover. As a result, most winter wheat fields were exposed to wind-blown soil and remained vulnerable to an outbreak of bitter-cold temperatures. Several storms struck the Pacific Northwest during December, producing heavy rainfall that boosted reservoirs and benefited development of winter crops in low-lying coastal areas as far south as central California. The wet weather also hampered field and orchard activities in California's central and northern valleys. As the storms tracked inland, they produced abundant snow accumulations in the coastal and interior mountain ranges, increasing irrigation water reserves for the 2002 summer crops. However, the systems produced very little precipitation as they crossed the Great Plains. Consequently, moisture shortages increased in most areas of the Great Plains and limited the winter wheat crop's response to the favorable temperatures. The storm systems reorganized over the western Gulf Coast, accessed moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and moved across the interior Mississippi Delta and into the Ohio Valley. Many winter wheat fields in the lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas of the southern Great Plains, Southeast, and southern Corn Belt were stressed by the unfavorably wet weather that saturated soils and flooded low-lying areas along rivers and streams. Farther to the north and east, widespread precipitation near midmonth maintained soil moisture supplies in the central and eastern Corn Belt, and supported development of the soft red winter wheat crop. A few light showers provided much-needed moisture for winter grains and forages along the eastern Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coastal Plain, but soils remained unfavorably dry. In Florida, warm, dry weather hastened ripening of fruits and vegetables, aided the sugarcane harvest, and supported other field and orchard activities. Winter Potatoes: Winter potato production for 2002 is forecast at 3.89 million cwt, down 6 percent from 2001 and 22 percent below 2000. Acreage for harvest in the two winter potato States (California and Florida) is estimated at 13,500 acres, down 4 percent from 2001 while the average forecast yield of 288 cwt per acre is down 6 cwt from a year ago. California's acreage for harvest is off 22 percent from a year ago, but crop progress is normal. Florida's acreage for harvest is up 30 percent from the previous season as a result of flood reduced acreage in 2001. Planting this season was interrupted in late October and November by the effects of Hurricane Michelle and some fields had to be replanted. Spring Potatoes: Revised 2001 spring potato production of 21.8 million cwt, is up 12 percent from the May 1 forecast but down less than 1 percent from last year. Harvested area totaled 76,200 acres, up 1 percent from 2000, while the average yield of 286 cwt per acre decreased 4 cwt from 2000. Boosted by heavy shipments, final Florida estimates are 34 percent above the May forecast and 26 percent above last year. North Carolina's production increased 3 percent from 2000. Spring potatoes in Arizona are 12 percent below a year ago and California's spring crop declined 19 percent, while the Texas crop is down 7 percent. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.58 million pounds for December, 13 percent lower than last month and 24 percent less than December 2000. Area in crop totaled 2,575 acres, 5 percent less than last month and 4 percent lower than a year ago. Harvested area, at 1,835 acres, was 5 percent lower than last month and 2 percent less than a year ago. Weather during December was variable. Windy conditions during the beginning of December were followed by a mid-month winter storm which brought heavy rains to papaya producing areas. Fungal diseases were noticeable with the wetter weather. Drier conditions returned during the later part of the month. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2001-02 grapefruit crop for the United States is 2.51 million tons, down 1 percent from the December 1 forecast but 1 percent higher than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast is 47.0 million boxes (2.00 million tons), unchanged from the December 1 forecast but 2 percent above last season. The all white grapefruit forecast continues at 19.0 million boxes (808,000 tons). The colored seedless utilization is forecast at 28.0 million boxes (1.19 million tons), the same as the December 1 forecast, but 3 percent more than the previous season. Loss from droppage is average, but fruit size is smaller than all of the previous 10 seasons except 1992. The Texas grapefruit forecast is 7.30 million boxes (292,000 tons), 6 percent less than the October 1 forecast but 1 percent higher than last season's final utilization. Harvest began late this season. Fruit size and quality are better than last season. The California grapefruit forecast increased to 6.20 million boxes (208,000 tons), 3 percent more than the previous forecast but 5 percent below the final 2000-01 utilization. Harvesting is active in the desert areas and quality is very good. Arizona's grapefruit forecast remains at 200,000 boxes (6,700 tons), 20 percent less than last season. The harvest is just getting underway. Fruit size is average and good quality is evident. Lemons: The 2001-02 lemon forecast for the United States is 954,000 tons, down 4 percent from the initial October forecast. If realized, it will be down 5 percent from last season. California production is forecast at 22.0 million boxes (836,000 tons), down 4 percent from October and 3 percent less than the previous season. Harvest is active in all three producing areas of California. Overall, quality is very good. The Arizona lemon crop is forecast at 3.10 million boxes (118,000 tons), the same as the October forecast but down 14 percent from last season. A lighter fruit set is evident and fruit size is larger than last season. The crop is in good condition. Tangelos: Florida's 2001-02 tangelo forecast is held at 2.30 million boxes (104,000 tons), 10 percent more than last season's utilized production. More than a third of the crop has been utilized as of the end of December. Tangerines: The 2001-02 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 414,000 tons, down 2 percent from the December 1 forecast but 12 percent higher than last season's utilization of 369,000 tons. Florida's tangerine forecast remains at 6.40 million boxes (304,000 tons) and is 14 percent higher than last season. Harvest is virtually complete on the early season tangerines. The later season Honey tangerines are larger on average than in any of the previous 10 seasons. Loss from droppage is projected to be average. California's forecast of tangerine production is 2.30 million boxes (86,000 tons), down 8 percent from the October forecast but 10 percent above last season. Fruit size is larger than average and quality is very good. The Satsuma harvest is wrapping up and the harvests of Minneolas and Fairchilds are active. The Arizona forecast of tangerine production is 650,000 boxes (24,000 tons), 8 percent higher than the October forecast but the same as last season. Fruit size is small and quality is average. Harvest is less than 50 percent complete. Temples: Florida's 2001-02 Temple forecast is continued at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons), unchanged from December. If realized, it will be the second smallest crop ever recorded, but 12 percent higher than the record low 1.25 million boxes (56,000 tons) utilized last season. Average fruit size is the smallest in the 10-season series. Loss from droppage is slightly below the average. K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2001-02 is 30,000 boxes (1,350 tons), unchanged from December and 10,000 boxes fewer than last season. If realized, this will be the smallest crop of record. Florida Citrus: Florida's citrus belt was very dry during December. Rain is needed in all areas. Growers irrigated to maintain good tree and fruit condition. Temperatures during the first half of the month were above normal, but during the last ten days of December seasonally cooler temperatures prevailed. The early and midseason fruit are coloring well on the trees. Harvesting crews have been moving large quantities of early and midseason oranges to the processors. Fresh fruit packers worked long hours through the weekend before Christmas to meet holiday demand. Caretakers were mowing, chopping, and discing cover crops prior to harvest and for fire protection. Growers continue to push and burn dead trees. Due to the unseasonably warm temperatures through mid-December, there have been some cleanup sprays applied to a few of the mid and late season fresh crops. A few young tree groves in the northern part of the citrus belt have been banked for cold protection. Heaters have been fueled and placed in some of the coldest locations. Texas Citrus: Harvest started late this season for grapefruit but on schedule for oranges. Fruit quality and size are better than last year. Cold temperatures which occurred the first few days of January did not last long enough to damage any fruit. Some growers are still concerned about rust mite populations. California Citrus: Picking of navel oranges continued throughout December and approximately 20 percent of the crop was harvested by month's end. Cool evening temperatures during late December enhanced fruit color. Pummelo and Oroblanco grapefruit harvests were active in the desert and very good quality was evident. Picking of lemons was active in the desert, central valley, and south coast areas. Quality is very good. Harvest of Satsuma, Minneola, and Fairchild tangerines was active during December. Fruit size is larger than average and quality is very good. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities such as pruning, grafting, cultivating, and dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Some older variety trees and vines have been removed in preparation for planting replacements. Harvest of table grapes was nearly complete by mid-December. Persimmons and pomegranates were picked. Walnuts were delivered to drying facilities. A few pecans were harvested in the San Joaquin Valley. Hay Stocks on Farm: Stocks of all hay on farms December 1, 2001 totaled 111 million tons, 5 percent above the stocks on farms December 1, 2000. The 20 States with increases in hay stocks more than offset stocks decreases in 27 States. Increases in hay stocks in the Gulf Coast, central Great Plains and southern Corn Belt States in 2001 can be attributed to increases in hay production. The increases in stocks from these States ranged from 5 percent in Texas to 164 percent in Louisiana. Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The objective yield survey for oranges for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 8.2 percent. However, if you exclude the six freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.4 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 8.2 percent, or 4.4 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 14.1 percent, or 7.8 percent excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 509,000 tons (366,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 33,000 tons to 1.89 million tons (33,000 tons to 739,000 tons, excluding freezes). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 5 times and above 15 times (below 4 times and above 10 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Rhonda Brandt - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye, Hay, Sorghum (202) 720-8068 Jay V. Johnson - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice, Barley (202) 720-7688 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Nuts, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Fresh Vegetables, Mushrooms(202) 720-3250 Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4288 Jim Smith - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Peas (202) 720-2127 Darin Jantzi - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Betty Johnston - Nuts, Floriculture, Nursery(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on February 8, 2002. 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Sharpen Your Strategy at USDA's 78th Outlook Forum February 21-22, 2002 Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia New Farm Legislation Biotech Crops in World Trade Protecting Livestock and Crops Tracking Crop and Product Identity in the Food Chain 2002 Commodity Prospects Competing in Global Markets Climate and Agriculture Put next year's economic and business outlook in focus at Outlook Forum 2002. Attend this popular event to hear the latest on market-shaping developments ranging from farm legislation to food safety concerns. Government officials, business leaders and commodity analysts will assess the outlook for 2002 and beyond, and noted economist Larry Chimerine will discuss U.S. and global economic prospects. Focus sessions featuring rural innovators will highlight trends in bio-energy, contract negotia tion, rural development and other areas. To stretch your planning horizon, USDA will release new 10-year commodity projections. Visit the Forum home page for complete program details and on line registration. Register Today! www.usda.gov/oce (202) 314-3451