Cr Pr 2-2 (2-02) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 8, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Down 1 Percent The U.S. all orange February 1 forecast for the 2001-02 crop is 12.4 million tons, down 1 percent from the January 1 forecast but virtually unchanged from last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is decreased to 228 million boxes (10.3 million tons), 1 percent less than the January 1 forecast but 2 percent above the previous season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 128 million boxes (5.76 million tons), down 2 percent from the previous forecast but the same utilization as last season. The harvest of the early and midseason oranges is nearly three-fourths complete. Dry and warm weather has increased drop of the unharvested fruit, especially in western areas where most of the unharvested fruit remains. Total droppage in the western areas has been above the State average all season and is higher than in the other four areas of the citrus belt. Florida's Valencia forecast is 100 million boxes (4.50 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 5 percent higher than last season's final utilization. Fruit size continues to be below average. Loss from droppage is below average. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield is projected at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from January's projection and the same yield as last season. The early and midseason portion is projected to yield 1.52 gallons per box and the Valencia portion is projected to yield 1.68 gallons per box. Both of these yields are the same as projected last month. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on February 8, 2002. Acting Secretary of Agriculture James R. Moseley Agricultural Statistics Board Acting Chairperson Steve D. Wiyatt Contents Page Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Sugarcane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2000-2001 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 436.0 446.0 37.5 35.3 16,350 15,744 HI 2/ : 30.2 21.4 78.3 89.5 2,365 1,915 LA 2/ : 465.0 460.0 29.7 30.0 13,811 13,800 TX 2/ : 45.5 44.5 38.8 33.0 1,765 1,469 : US : 976.7 971.9 35.1 33.9 34,291 32,928 : For Seed : FL : 18.0 19.0 38.4 38.3 691 728 HI 2/ : 1.8 1.8 38.0 31.5 68 57 LA 2/ : 35.0 35.0 29.7 30.0 1,040 1,050 TX 2/ : 0.8 1.5 30.0 25.0 24 38 : US : 55.6 57.3 32.8 32.7 1,823 1,873 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 454.0 465.0 37.5 35.4 17,041 16,472 HI 2/ : 32.0 23.2 76.0 85.0 2,433 1,972 LA 2/ : 500.0 495.0 29.7 30.0 14,851 14,850 TX 2/ : 46.3 46.0 38.6 32.8 1,789 1,507 : US : 1,032.3 1,029.2 35.0 33.8 36,114 34,801 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the 2001 Crop Production Summary. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Dec : 2,575 1,835 3,575 Jan : 2,690 2,575 1,870 1,865 4,930 3,285 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1999-2000, 2000-2001 and Forecasted February 1, 2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1999-00 : 2000-01 : 2001-02 : 1999-00 : 2000-01 : 2001-02 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 600 480 350 22 18 13 CA 4/ : 40,000 36,000 32,000 1,500 1,350 1,200 FL : 134,000 128,000 128,000 6,030 5,760 5,760 TX 4/ : 1,460 2,000 1,700 62 85 72 US : 176,060 166,480 162,050 7,614 7,213 7,045 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 500 420 350 19 16 13 CA 4/ : 24,000 23,000 22,000 900 862 825 FL : 99,000 95,300 100,000 4,455 4,289 4,500 TX 4/ : 200 235 200 9 10 9 US : 123,700 118,955 122,550 5,383 5,177 5,347 All : AZ 4/ : 1,100 900 700 41 34 26 CA 4/ : 64,000 59,000 54,000 2,400 2,212 2,025 FL : 233,000 223,300 228,000 10,485 10,049 10,260 TX 4/ : 1,660 2,235 1,900 71 95 81 US : 299,760 285,435 284,600 12,997 12,390 12,392 Temples : FL : 1,950 1,250 1,400 88 56 63 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 20,900 18,700 19,000 888 795 808 Colored Seedless : FL : 31,900 27,300 28,000 1,356 1,160 1,190 Other 5/ : FL : 600 25 All : AZ 4/ : 450 250 200 15 8 7 CA 4/ : 7,200 6,500 6,200 241 218 208 FL : 53,400 46,000 47,000 2,269 1,955 1,998 TX 4/ : 5,930 7,200 7,300 237 288 292 US : 66,980 59,950 60,700 2,762 2,469 2,505 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 850 650 650 32 24 24 CA 4/ 6/ : 2,500 2,100 2,300 94 79 86 FL : 7,000 5,600 6,400 332 266 304 US : 10,350 8,350 9,350 458 369 414 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,100 3,600 3,100 118 137 118 CA : 19,000 22,700 22,000 722 863 836 US : 22,100 26,300 25,100 840 1,000 954 Tangelos : FL : 2,200 2,100 2,300 99 95 104 K-Early Citrus : FL : 110 40 30 5 2 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5/ "Other" seedy grapefruit estimates discontinued after 1999-2000 crop. Included with white seedless beginning with the 2000-01 crop. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,967.0 4,289.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 75,752.0 68,808.0 Corn for Silage : 6,148.0 Hay, All : 63,511.0 Alfalfa : 23,812.0 All Other : 39,699.0 Oats : 4,403.0 1,905.0 Proso Millet : 650.0 580.0 Rice : 3,335.0 3,314.0 Rye : 1,328.0 255.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 10,252.0 8,584.0 Sorghum for Silage : 336.0 Wheat, All : 59,617.0 48,653.0 Winter : 41,078.0 41,031.0 31,295.0 Durum : 2,910.0 2,789.0 Other Spring : 15,629.0 14,569.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,494.0 1,455.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 585.0 578.0 Mustard Seed : 45.8 44.2 Peanuts : 1,543.0 1,400.5 Rapeseed : 3.7 3.1 Safflower : 188.0 177.0 Soybeans for Beans : 74,105.0 73,000.0 Sunflowers : 2,653.0 2,580.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 15,787.8 13,810.0 Upland : 15,527.0 13,551.0 Amer-Pima : 260.8 259.0 Sugarbeets : 1,371.1 1,243.7 Sugarcane : 1,029.2 Tobacco : 432.6 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 15.9 7.1 Dry Edible Beans : 1,429.9 1,243.0 Dry Edible Peas : 211.8 196.8 Lentils : 201.0 197.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.4 Hops : 35.9 Peppermint Oil : 78.5 Potatoes, All : 1,267.1 1,241.3 Winter : 16.8 13.8 14.0 13.5 Spring : 78.3 76.2 Summer : 60.9 58.6 Fall : 1,111.1 1,092.5 Spearmint Oil : 19.5 Sweet Potatoes : 97.9 93.5 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 58.2 249,590 Corn for Grain : " : 138.2 9,506,840 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.6 102,352 Hay, All : " : 2.47 156,703 Alfalfa : " : 3.37 80,266 All Other : " : 1.93 76,437 Oats : Bu : 61.3 116,856 Proso Millet : " : 33.2 19,250 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,429 213,045 Rye : Bu : 27.3 6,971 Sorghum for Grain : " : 59.9 514,524 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 11.1 3,728 Wheat, All : Bu : 40.2 1,957,643 Winter : " : 43.5 1,361,479 Durum : " : 30.0 83,556 Other Spring : " : 35.2 512,608 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,374 1,998,515 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 7,533.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 19.8 11,455 Mustard Seed : Lb : 930 41,106 Peanuts : " : 3,027 4,239,450 Rapeseed : " : 1,306 4,050 Safflower : " : 1,365 241,665 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 39.6 2,890,572 Sunflowers : Lb : 1,349 3,480,696 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 698 20,084.0 Upland 2/ : " : 687 19,406.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,257 678.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.7 25,754 Sugarcane : " : 33.8 34,801 Tobacco : Lb : 2,314 1,000,936 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,366 97 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,572 19,541 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,920 3,779 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,471 2,898 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 640 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,210 7,600 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 45,000 16,200 Hops : " : 1,861 66,832.1 Peppermint Oil : " : 81 6,343 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 358 444,766 Winter : " : 294 288 4,115 3,888 Spring : " : 286 21,814 Summer : " : 309 18,110 Fall : " : 367 400,727 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 105 2,052 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 154 14,355 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2000-2002 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,762 2,469 2,505 K-Early Citrus (FL) : " : 5 2 1 Lemons : " : 840 1,000 954 Oranges : " : 12,997 12,390 12,392 Tangelos (FL) : " : 99 95 104 Tangerines : " : 458 369 414 Temples (FL) : " : 88 56 63 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 10,663.7 9,435.2 Apricots : Ton : 96.9 82.3 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 29,000.0 28,000.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,688.0 6,521.2 Olives (CA) : " : 53.0 134.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 54,500.0 55,000.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,599.9 2,437.4 Pears : Ton : 967.2 970.8 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 219.0 148.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 23.9 20.8 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 703,000 850,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 22.5 48.0 Pecans : Lb : 209,850 315,000 Pistachios (CA) : " : 243,000 161,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 239.0 305.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,231 1,049 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,010,100 1,735,720 Corn for Grain 2/ :30,656,080 27,845,910 Corn for Silage : 2,488,030 Hay, All 3/ : 25,702,270 Alfalfa : 9,636,480 All Other : 16,065,790 Oats : 1,781,850 770,930 Proso Millet : 263,050 234,720 Rice : 1,349,640 1,341,140 Rye : 537,430 103,200 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 4,148,880 3,473,860 Sorghum for Silage : 135,980 Wheat, All 3/ :24,126,400 19,689,380 Winter :16,623,860 16,604,840 12,664,770 Durum : 1,177,650 1,128,680 Other Spring : 6,324,900 5,895,930 : Oilseeds : Canola : 604,610 588,820 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 236,740 233,910 Mustard Seed : 18,530 17,890 Peanuts : 624,440 566,770 Rapeseed : 1,500 1,250 Safflower : 76,080 71,630 Soybeans for Beans :29,989,550 29,542,370 Sunflowers : 1,073,640 1,044,100 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 6,389,160 5,588,770 Upland : 6,283,620 5,483,950 Amer-Pima : 105,540 104,810 Sugarbeets : 554,870 503,310 Sugarcane : 416,510 Tobacco : 175,090 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 6,430 2,870 Dry Edible Beans : 578,670 503,030 Dry Edible Peas : 85,710 79,640 Lentils : 81,340 79,720 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 Ginger Root (HI) : 150 Hops : 14,530 Peppermint Oil : 31,770 Potatoes, All 3/ : 512,780 502,340 Winter : 6,800 5,580 5,670 5,460 Spring : 31,690 30,840 Summer : 24,650 23,710 Fall : 449,650 442,120 Spearmint Oil : 7,890 Sweet Potatoes : 39,620 37,840 Taro (HI) 4/ : 180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.13 5,434,180 Corn for Grain : 8.67 241,484,860 Corn for Silage : 37.32 92,852,170 Hay, All 2/ : 5.53 142,158,570 Alfalfa : 7.56 72,816,090 All Other : 4.32 69,342,480 Oats : 2.20 1,696,160 Proso Millet : 1.86 436,580 Rice : 7.21 9,663,560 Rye : 1.72 177,070 Sorghum for Grain : 3.76 13,069,510 Sorghum for Silage : 24.87 3,381,980 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.71 53,278,310 Winter : 2.93 37,053,390 Durum : 2.01 2,274,020 Other Spring : 2.37 13,950,900 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.54 906,510 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,833,820 Flaxseed : 1.24 290,970 Mustard Seed : 1.04 18,650 Peanuts : 3.39 1,922,980 Rapeseed : 1.46 1,840 Safflower : 1.53 109,620 Soybeans for Beans : 2.66 78,668,480 Sunflowers : 1.51 1,578,820 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.78 4,372,780 Upland : 0.77 4,225,160 Amer-Pima : 1.41 147,620 Sugarbeets : 46.42 23,363,640 Sugarcane : 75.80 31,570,940 Tobacco : 2.59 454,020 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.53 4,400 Dry Edible Beans : 1.76 886,360 Dry Edible Peas : 2.15 171,410 Lentils : 1.65 131,450 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 29,030 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.35 3,450 Ginger Root (HI) : 50.44 7,350 Hops : 2.09 30,310 Peppermint Oil : 0.09 2,880 Potatoes, All 2/ : 40.16 20,174,250 Winter : 32.94 32.28 186,650 176,360 Spring : 32.09 989,470 Summer : 34.64 821,460 Fall : 41.11 18,176,670 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 930 Sweet Potatoes : 17.21 651,130 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2000-2002 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,505,640 2,239,840 2,272,500 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 4,540 1,810 910 Lemons : 762,040 907,180 865,450 Oranges : 11,790,680 11,240,020 11,241,830 Tangelos (FL) : 89,810 86,180 94,350 Tangerines : 415,490 334,750 375,570 Temples (FL) : 79,830 50,800 57,150 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,836,970 4,279,740 Apricots : 87,910 74,630 Bananas (HI) : 13,150 12,700 Grapes : 6,974,410 5,915,930 Olives (CA) : 48,080 121,560 Papayas (HI) : 24,720 24,950 Peaches : 1,179,290 1,105,590 Pears : 877,380 880,700 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 198,670 134,260 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 21,680 18,870 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 318,880 385,550 Hazelnuts : 20,410 43,540 Pecans : 95,190 142,880 Pistachios (CA) : 110,220 73,030 Walnuts (CA) : 216,820 276,690 Maple Syrup : 6,150 5,240 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002. January Weather Summary Precipitation slackened across the Northwest during January, leaving the region's complete recovery from the drought of 2000-01 in doubt, despite a 6-week parade of major storm systems in November and December. Farther south, a late-January storm system delivered the month's only significant precipitation in much of the Four Corners region. The same storm crossed the central and southern Plains and parts of the Corn Belt on January 30-31, providing much-needed moisture for the Plains' wheat crop and recharging soil moisture in parts of the Midwest, but causing serious travel and electrical disruptions due to ice accumulations. The cold air that helped fuel the late-month storm also left the northern High Plains' poorly-established, drought-stressed, and wind-battered winter wheat crop exposed to temperatures as low as -20 degrees F. A patchy snow cover, with depths generally 2 inches or less, provided little insulation for the northern Plains' wheat. Ironically, the late-month cold outbreak quieted winds across the northern High Plains, where chinook (downslope) winds frequently gusted higher than 40 mph and occasionally higher than 70 mph during the first 25 days of January. Cool air also spilled into California, bringing several minor to moderate freezes in mid- to late January. On the coldest mornings January 23 and 24 low temperatures generally ranged from 24 to 30 degrees F in the San Joaquin Valley's citrus areas, accelerating orange harvesting in local cold spots, necessitating freeze-protection measures in some groves, and slowing winter grain development, but providing beneficial "chill hours" for fruit and nut trees. Cold air also briefly spread into winter agricultural areas of the Southwest. Farther east, heavy precipitation was confined to portions of the South, including areas from the Delta to the southern Appalachians. While the rain and snow aided previously drought-stressed pastures and winter grains in the southern Atlantic region, lowland flooding returned to the lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas. Following some early-month snowfall (mostly January 2-3), nearly all of the South's heavy rain fell from January 18-25. January Crop Summary The year began with a winter storm that brought well below-normal temperatures and a mixture of wintery precipitation to the southern Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. However, temperatures quickly rebounded and abnormally warm weather prevailed from the Rocky Mountains to the Atlantic Coast during the remainder of the month. Many areas recorded new record day time highs, and parts of the Corn Belt and Great Lakes region experienced their warmest January ever. In the Southwest and Pacific Northwest, abnormally warm weather prevailed early in the month, but temperatures averaged well below-normal after midmonth. Below-normal precipitation extended drought conditions along parts of the Atlantic Coastal Plain and large portions of the Great Plains. In the Pacific Northwest, storms frequently produced heavy rain along the coast and large snow accumulations in the Cascade and Sierra mountains. Temperatures averaged above-normal in the northern Great Plains, but winter wheat remained dormant despite periods of record warmth across the region. Heaving and winter kill were virtually non-existent most of the month, although fields were exposed and vulnerable to wind blown soil and a late-month period of bitterly cold weather. In parts of the southern Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast, abnormally warm weather stimulated growth of winter grains and forages most of the month. In Texas, dry weather supported fieldwork, but limited the response of winter grains and forage crops to favorable temperatures. Sub-freezing temperatures penetrated into the Southeast early in the month, providing beneficial chill hours for fruit trees approaching the upcoming bloom period. The cold weather briefly halted growth of winter grains and forages but sub-freezing temperatures were not sustained long enough to damage the citrus crop. However, citrus trees experienced minor foliage burn and, in the coldest areas, some new leafy growth was lost. In southern areas of the Florida peninsula, the sugarcane harvest and work in vegetable fields continued with little delay. In California, above-normal temperatures, supported by ample moisture supplies, stimulated development of winter crops during the first half of the month. However, temperatures averaged well below normal throughout the Southwest after midmonth. The cold weather slowed growth of winter crops, but nighttime temperatures did not remain below freezing long enough to seriously damage citrus trees and unharvested fruit. Vegetable growers ran irrigation systems to protect delicate leafy crops from sub-freezing overnight lows and citrus growers ran irrigation systems and wind machines to protect fruit from frost damage. Nevertheless, ice marks and slight freeze damage showed in some citrus varieties. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for 2001 is estimated at 34.8 million tons, 4 percent below last year's record high of 36.1 million tons. Acres harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed are estimated at 1.03 million for the 2001 crop year, slightly less than last year's harvested acres. Yield is estimated at 33.8 tons per acre, 1.2 tons below 2000. In Louisiana, acres harvested for sugar and seed, at 495,000, is 1 percent below last year's record acreage of 500,000 and is the first year-to-year acreage reduction since 1996. In Florida, acres harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed is 2 percent above last year's level. If realized, Florida's harvested acreage would exceed the previous record high of 460,000 acres set in 1999. Harvest was completed in Louisiana despite rain delays in early January. In Florida, warm, dry weather supported harvest throughout the month. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2001-02 grapefruit crop for the United States remains at 2.51 million tons, unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 1 percent higher than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast continues at 47.0 million boxes (2.00 million tons), the same as last month but 2 percent above last season's final utilization. The all white grapefruit forecast is 19.0 million boxes (808,000 tons), unchanged from January but 2 percent more than the previous season. The all white grapefruit average size equals the smallest average size in the 10-season series. The droppage factor is at the series average. Harvest is 20 percent complete. The colored seedless utilization is forecast at 28.0 million boxes (1.19 million tons), the same as the January 1 forecast, but 3 percent more than the previous season. Average fruit size is smaller than any other season in the 10-season series. Loss from droppage is slightly above the series average. Harvest is close to 40 percent complete. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts. Tangerines: The 2001-02 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 414,000 tons, unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 12 percent higher than last season's utilization of 369,000 tons. Florida's tangerine forecast is 6.40 million boxes (304,000 tons), the same as last month but 14 percent higher than last season. Harvest of the late season Honey variety remains active. The Honeys are larger on average than in any of the previous 21 seasons except 2. Loss from droppage is slightly below average. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts. Tangelos: Florida's 2001-02 tangelo forecast remains at 2.30 million boxes (104,000 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 10 percent more than last season's utilized production. Over three-fourths of the crop has been harvested as of February 1. Temples: Florida's 2001-02 Temple forecast is 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons), unchanged from January. If realized, it will be the second smallest crop ever recorded, but 12 percent higher than the record low 1.25 million boxes (56,000 tons) utilized last season. Average fruit size is smaller than all but 2 of the previous 36 non-freeze seasons. Loss from droppage is lower in only 5 of those 36 seasons, somewhat offsetting the smaller sizes. K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2001-02 remains at 30,000 boxes (1,350 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 10,000 boxes fewer than last season. If realized, this will be the smallest crop of record. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.29 million pounds for January, 8 percent less than last month and 33 percent lower than 2001. Area in crop totaled 2,575 acres, unchanged from last month but 4 percent less than last January. Harvested area, at 1,865 acres, is 2 percent more than last month but virtually unchanged from a year ago. Weather conditions for January began with frequent sunny periods and light showers which allowed farmers to catch up on regular field work. However, wet and cloudy weather conditions in the second half of January hindered normal field operations. Florida Citrus: The first half of January was very cold. There were two mornings when the temperatures were below freezing, but they were not low enough long enough to significantly damage the crops. Most colder locations are planted to early varieties and had been harvested or were picked very soon after the cold nights. Caretakers irrigated to keep their groves warm during the cold spell and to maintain good tree condition for the upcoming bloom. Also, there were several rains that helped protect the current citrus crop and the trees. The last part of the month was generally dry and unseasonably warm. There were, however, a few isolated rains on the lower east coast. Growers have been pushing out and burning dead and dying trees. Some replanting is occurring in the warmer locations. California Citrus: Citrus growers irrigated and used wind machines to protect citrus fruit from frost damage. Ice marks and slight freeze damage showed in some citrus varieties following the cold temperatures. Picking of navel oranges continued throughout January, but was slowed at times by rainfall, fog, and frost. Pummelo and Oroblanco grapefruit harvests continued in the desert and the San Joaquin Valley. Picking of lemons occurred in central and southern California. Harvest of Satsuma, Minneola, and Fairchild tangerines continued. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Typical cultural activities such as pruning, grafting, cultivating, and spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Cold weather during January eased growers' concerns about the lack of chilling hours required by most fruit trees. Crews pruned and tied vines in vineyards. Grape growers cultivated, made herbicide applications, fertilized, and treated for insects. Ground preparation for new plantings was in progress. Cherry orchards were treated to promote an earlier, more uniform, fruit set. Buds began to swell in a few early fruit tree varieties. Strawberry nursery stock digging and trimming continued throughout the month. Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 4.8 percent. However, if you exclude the six freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.1 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 4.8 percent, or 4.1 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.2 percent, or 7.2 percent excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 361,000 tons (332,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 13,000 tons to 745,000 tons (13,000 tons to 745,000 tons, excluding freezes). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 9 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Greg Thessen - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-2127 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye, Hay, Sorghum (202) 720-8068 Greg Thessen - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-2127 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice, Barley (202) 720-7688 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Dave DeWalt - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Fresh Vegetables, Mushrooms(202) 720-3250 Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4288 Jim Smith - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Peas (202) 720-2127 Darin Jantzi - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Betty Johnston - Nuts, Floriculture, Nursery (202) 690- 0207 Biz Wallingsford - Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 8, 2002. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: http:/www.usda.gov/nass/. Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then Reports by Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. 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Sharpen Your Strategy at USDA's 78th Outlook Forum February 21-22, 2002 Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia New Farm Legislation Biotech Crops in World Trade Protecting Livestock and Crops Tracking Crop and Product Identity in the Food Chain 2002 Commodity Prospects Competing in Global Markets Climate and Agriculture Put next year's economic and business outlook in focus at Outlook Forum 2002. Attend this popular event to hear the latest on market-shaping developments ranging from farm legislation to food safety concerns. Government officials, business leaders and commodity analysts will assess the outlook for 2002 and beyond, and noted economist Larry Chimerine will discuss U.S. and global economic prospects. Focus sessions featuring rural innovators will highlight trends in bio-energy, contract negotiation, rural development and other areas. To stretch your planning horizon, USDA will release new 10-year commodity projections. Visit the Forum home page for complete program details and online registration. Register Today! www.usda.gov/oce (202) 314-3451