Cr Pr 2-2 (3-02) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 8, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Unchanged from February 1 Forecast The U.S. all orange March 1 forecast for the 2001-02 crop is 12.4 million tons, unchanged from the February 1 forecast but up fractionally from last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is 228 million boxes (10.3 million tons), the same as the February 1 forecast but up 2 percent from the previous season. The forecast for Florida's early and midseason variety oranges remains at 128 million boxes (5.76 million tons) and, if realized, will be the same utilization as last season. The harvest of the early and midseason oranges is nearly complete with 95 percent of the crop picked. Florida's Valencia forecast is 100 million boxes (4.50 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 5 percent higher than last season's final utilization. Fruit size and loss from droppage continue to be below average. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield is projected at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from February's projection and the same yield as last season. The early and midseason portion is projected to yield 1.52 gallons per box and the Valencia portion is projected to yield 1.68 gallons per box. Both of these yields are the same as projected last month. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on March 8, 2002. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Keith J. Collins Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Frederic A. Vogel Contents Page Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Sugarcane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2000-2001 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 436.0 446.0 37.5 35.1 16,350 15,655 HI 2/ : 30.2 21.4 78.3 89.5 2,365 1,915 LA 2/ : 465.0 460.0 29.7 30.0 13,811 13,800 TX 2/ : 45.5 44.5 38.8 33.0 1,765 1,469 : US : 976.7 971.9 35.1 33.8 34,291 32,839 : For Seed : FL : 18.0 19.0 38.4 38.3 691 728 HI 2/ : 1.8 1.8 38.0 31.5 68 57 LA 2/ : 35.0 35.0 29.7 30.0 1,040 1,050 TX 2/ : 0.8 1.5 30.0 25.0 24 38 : US : 55.6 57.3 32.8 32.7 1,823 1,873 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 454.0 465.0 37.5 35.2 17,041 16,383 HI 2/ : 32.0 23.2 76.0 85.0 2,433 1,972 LA 2/ : 500.0 495.0 29.7 30.0 14,851 14,850 TX 2/ : 46.3 46.0 38.6 32.8 1,789 1,507 : US : 1,032.3 1,029.2 35.0 33.7 36,114 34,712 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the 2001 Crop Production Summary. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Jan : 2,690 2,575 1,870 1,865 4,930 3,285 Feb : 2,630 2,555 1,845 1,860 4,040 3,135 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 1999-2000, 2000-2001 and Forecasted March 1, 2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1999-00 : 2000-01 : 2001-02 : 1999-00 : 2000-01 : 2001-02 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 600 480 350 22 18 13 CA 4/ : 40,000 36,000 32,000 1,500 1,350 1,200 FL : 134,000 128,000 128,000 6,030 5,760 5,760 TX 4/ : 1,460 2,000 1,700 62 85 72 US : 176,060 166,480 162,050 7,614 7,213 7,045 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 500 420 350 19 16 13 CA 4/ : 24,000 23,000 22,000 900 862 825 FL : 99,000 95,300 100,000 4,455 4,289 4,500 TX 4/ : 200 235 200 9 10 9 US : 123,700 118,955 122,550 5,383 5,177 5,347 All : AZ 4/ : 1,100 900 700 41 34 26 CA 4/ : 64,000 59,000 54,000 2,400 2,212 2,025 FL : 233,000 223,300 228,000 10,485 10,049 10,260 TX 4/ : 1,660 2,235 1,900 71 95 81 US : 299,760 285,435 284,600 12,997 12,390 12,392 Temples : FL : 1,950 1,250 1,500 88 56 68 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 20,900 18,700 19,000 888 795 808 Colored Seedless : FL : 31,900 27,300 28,000 1,356 1,160 1,190 Other 5/ : FL : 600 25 All : AZ 4/ : 450 250 200 15 8 7 CA 4/ : 7,200 6,500 6,200 241 218 208 FL : 53,400 46,000 47,000 2,269 1,955 1,998 TX 4/ : 5,930 7,200 7,300 237 288 292 US : 66,980 59,950 60,700 2,762 2,469 2,505 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 850 650 650 32 24 24 CA 4/ 6/ : 2,500 2,100 2,300 94 79 86 FL : 7,000 5,600 6,400 332 266 304 US : 10,350 8,350 9,350 458 369 414 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,100 3,600 3,100 118 137 118 CA : 19,000 22,700 22,000 722 863 836 US : 22,100 26,300 25,100 840 1,000 954 Tangelos : FL : 2,200 2,100 2,200 99 95 99 K-Early Citrus : FL : 110 40 30 5 2 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 5/ "Other" seedy grapefruit estimates discontinued after 1999-2000 crop. Included with white seedless beginning with the 2000-01 crop. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,967.0 4,289.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 75,752.0 68,808.0 Corn for Silage : 6,148.0 Hay, All : 63,511.0 Alfalfa : 23,812.0 All Other : 39,699.0 Oats : 4,403.0 1,905.0 Proso Millet : 650.0 580.0 Rice : 3,335.0 3,314.0 Rye : 1,328.0 255.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 10,252.0 8,584.0 Sorghum for Silage : 336.0 Wheat, All : 59,617.0 48,653.0 Winter : 41,078.0 41,031.0 31,295.0 Durum : 2,910.0 2,789.0 Other Spring : 15,629.0 14,569.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,494.0 1,455.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 585.0 578.0 Mustard Seed : 45.8 44.2 Peanuts : 1,543.0 1,400.5 Rapeseed : 3.7 3.1 Safflower : 188.0 177.0 Soybeans for Beans : 74,105.0 73,000.0 Sunflowers : 2,653.0 2,580.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 15,787.8 13,810.0 Upland : 15,527.0 13,551.0 Amer-Pima : 260.8 259.0 Sugarbeets : 1,371.1 1,243.7 Sugarcane : 1,029.2 Tobacco : 432.6 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 15.9 7.1 Dry Edible Beans : 1,429.9 1,243.0 Dry Edible Peas : 211.8 196.8 Lentils : 201.0 197.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.4 Hops : 35.9 Peppermint Oil : 78.5 Potatoes, All : 1,267.1 1,241.3 Winter : 16.8 13.8 14.0 13.5 Spring : 78.3 76.2 Summer : 60.9 58.6 Fall : 1,111.1 1,092.5 Spearmint Oil : 19.5 Sweet Potatoes : 97.9 93.5 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 58.2 249,590 Corn for Grain : " : 138.2 9,506,840 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.6 102,352 Hay, All : " : 2.47 156,703 Alfalfa : " : 3.37 80,266 All Other : " : 1.93 76,437 Oats : Bu : 61.3 116,856 Proso Millet : " : 33.2 19,250 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,429 213,045 Rye : Bu : 27.3 6,971 Sorghum for Grain : " : 59.9 514,524 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 11.1 3,728 Wheat, All : Bu : 40.2 1,957,643 Winter : " : 43.5 1,361,479 Durum : " : 30.0 83,556 Other Spring : " : 35.2 512,608 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,374 1,998,515 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 7,533.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 19.8 11,455 Mustard Seed : Lb : 930 41,106 Peanuts : " : 3,027 4,239,450 Rapeseed : " : 1,306 4,050 Safflower : " : 1,365 241,665 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 39.6 2,890,572 Sunflowers : Lb : 1,349 3,480,696 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 698 20,084.0 Upland 2/ : " : 687 19,406.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,257 678.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.7 25,754 Sugarcane : " : 33.7 34,712 Tobacco : Lb : 2,314 1,000,936 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,366 97 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,572 19,541 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,920 3,779 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,471 2,898 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 640 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,210 7,600 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 45,000 16,200 Hops : " : 1,861 66,832.1 Peppermint Oil : " : 81 6,343 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 358 444,766 Winter : " : 294 288 4,115 3,888 Spring : " : 286 21,814 Summer : " : 309 18,110 Fall : " : 367 400,727 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 105 2,052 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 154 14,355 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2000-2002 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,762 2,469 2,505 K-Early Citrus (FL) : " : 5 2 1 Lemons : " : 840 1,000 954 Oranges : " : 12,997 12,390 12,392 Tangelos (FL) : " : 99 95 99 Tangerines : " : 458 369 414 Temples (FL) : " : 88 56 68 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 10,663.7 9,435.2 Apricots : Ton : 96.9 82.3 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 29,000.0 28,000.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,688.0 6,521.2 Olives (CA) : " : 53.0 134.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 54,500.0 55,000.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,599.9 2,437.4 Pears : Ton : 967.2 970.8 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 219.0 148.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 23.9 20.8 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 703,000 850,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 22.5 48.0 Pecans : Lb : 209,850 315,000 Pistachios (CA) : " : 243,000 161,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 239.0 305.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,231 1,049 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,010,100 1,735,720 Corn for Grain 2/ :30,656,080 27,845,910 Corn for Silage : 2,488,030 Hay, All 3/ : 25,702,270 Alfalfa : 9,636,480 All Other : 16,065,790 Oats : 1,781,850 770,930 Proso Millet : 263,050 234,720 Rice : 1,349,640 1,341,140 Rye : 537,430 103,200 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 4,148,880 3,473,860 Sorghum for Silage : 135,980 Wheat, All 3/ :24,126,400 19,689,380 Winter :16,623,860 16,604,840 12,664,770 Durum : 1,177,650 1,128,680 Other Spring : 6,324,900 5,895,930 : Oilseeds : Canola : 604,610 588,820 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 236,740 233,910 Mustard Seed : 18,530 17,890 Peanuts : 624,440 566,770 Rapeseed : 1,500 1,250 Safflower : 76,080 71,630 Soybeans for Beans :29,989,550 29,542,370 Sunflowers : 1,073,640 1,044,100 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 6,389,160 5,588,770 Upland : 6,283,620 5,483,950 Amer-Pima : 105,540 104,810 Sugarbeets : 554,870 503,310 Sugarcane : 416,510 Tobacco : 175,090 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 6,430 2,870 Dry Edible Beans : 578,670 503,030 Dry Edible Peas : 85,710 79,640 Lentils : 81,340 79,720 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 Ginger Root (HI) : 150 Hops : 14,530 Peppermint Oil : 31,770 Potatoes, All 3/ : 512,780 502,340 Winter : 6,800 5,580 5,670 5,460 Spring : 31,690 30,840 Summer : 24,650 23,710 Fall : 449,650 442,120 Spearmint Oil : 7,890 Sweet Potatoes : 39,620 37,840 Taro (HI) 4/ : 180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.13 5,434,180 Corn for Grain : 8.67 241,484,860 Corn for Silage : 37.32 92,852,170 Hay, All 2/ : 5.53 142,158,570 Alfalfa : 7.56 72,816,090 All Other : 4.32 69,342,480 Oats : 2.20 1,696,160 Proso Millet : 1.86 436,580 Rice : 7.21 9,663,560 Rye : 1.72 177,070 Sorghum for Grain : 3.76 13,069,510 Sorghum for Silage : 24.87 3,381,980 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.71 53,278,310 Winter : 2.93 37,053,390 Durum : 2.01 2,274,020 Other Spring : 2.37 13,950,900 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.54 906,510 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,833,820 Flaxseed : 1.24 290,970 Mustard Seed : 1.04 18,650 Peanuts : 3.39 1,922,980 Rapeseed : 1.46 1,840 Safflower : 1.53 109,620 Soybeans for Beans : 2.66 78,668,480 Sunflowers : 1.51 1,578,820 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.78 4,372,780 Upland : 0.77 4,225,160 Amer-Pima : 1.41 147,620 Sugarbeets : 46.42 23,363,640 Sugarcane : 75.61 31,490,200 Tobacco : 2.59 454,020 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.53 4,400 Dry Edible Beans : 1.76 886,360 Dry Edible Peas : 2.15 171,410 Lentils : 1.65 131,450 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 29,030 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.35 3,450 Ginger Root (HI) : 50.44 7,350 Hops : 2.09 30,310 Peppermint Oil : 0.09 2,880 Potatoes, All 2/ : 40.16 20,174,250 Winter : 32.94 32.28 186,650 176,360 Spring : 32.09 989,470 Summer : 34.64 821,460 Fall : 41.11 18,176,670 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 930 Sweet Potatoes : 17.21 651,130 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2000-2002 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,505,640 2,239,840 2,272,500 K-Early Citrus (FL) : 4,540 1,810 910 Lemons : 762,040 907,180 865,450 Oranges : 11,790,680 11,240,020 11,241,830 Tangelos (FL) : 89,810 86,180 89,810 Tangerines : 415,490 334,750 375,570 Temples (FL) : 79,830 50,800 61,690 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,836,970 4,279,740 Apricots : 87,910 74,630 Bananas (HI) : 13,150 12,700 Grapes : 6,974,410 5,915,930 Olives (CA) : 48,080 121,560 Papayas (HI) : 24,720 24,950 Peaches : 1,179,290 1,105,590 Pears : 877,380 880,700 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 198,670 134,260 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 21,680 18,870 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 318,880 385,550 Hazelnuts : 20,410 43,540 Pecans : 95,190 142,880 Pistachios (CA) : 110,220 73,030 Walnuts (CA) : 216,820 276,690 Maple Syrup : 6,150 5,240 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Production years are 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2001-2002. February Weather Summary February featured weather strikingly similar to January's pattern, highlighted by an early-month cold snap and a long spell of mild conditions thereafter, followed by a major late-month storm system and cold outbreak. In California and Arizona, dry weather favored fieldwork but increased stress on pastures and dryland small grains. Meanwhile, high-elevation snow packs remained significantly below normal across the central and southern Rockies and the Southwest, increasing concerns about summer water supplies. Snow packs remained mostly above normal in the Northwest, still recovering from the drought of 2000-01, despite a lack of February storminess. Farther east, mostly dry, breezy weather and temperature extremes continued to stress the High Plains' winter wheat crop. Areas from Montana to western Nebraska remained especially dry for most of February, having been bypassed by a late-January snow and ice storm. At month's end, some of the coldest air of the season swept across the Plains, accompanied and trailed by a widespread snowfall that provided much-needed moisture and insulation for wheat. However, the storm system bypassed the southern High Plains' wheat crop, which was exposed to potentially damaging temperatures as low as 0 degrees F. The suddenly cold, snowy weather pattern persisted into early March across most of the Plains and Midwest, providing beneficial soil moisture recharge but stressing livestock and hampering rural travel. Meanwhile across the South and East, dryness intensified across southern Texas and much of the middle and southern Atlantic regions. Limited relief from long-term drought was noted in the Northeast. February Crop Summary Soil moisture reserves remained very low across most of the Great Plains during February. In the southern Great Plains, an early month storm produced beneficial precipitation across a large portion of the region. However, dry weather prevailed the remainder of the month. In the central and northern Great Plains, precipitation was scattered and light. Parts of the northern High Plains received virtually no precipitation during the month. In addition to excessive dryness, winter wheat fields were exposed to wide temperature fluctuations, including several days of record and near record highs as well as periods of bitter cold. Wind-blown soil also contributed to harsh conditions on the Plains. In the Southeast, early-month storms provided enough moisture to support current development of winter grains and forages in most areas, but precipitation was well below normal during the month and soil moisture reserves for spring and summer crop requirements remained very low. Periods of cold weather, including overnight lows that fell below freezing, frequently penetrated into the Southeast during February. For the month, temperatures averaged below-normal along the Gulf Coast and adjacent interior areas of the Southeast, Mississippi Delta, and southern Great Plains. The cold weather limited vegetative growth of winter crops, but also reduced soil moisture losses. The cold weather also provided beneficial chill hours for fruit orchards throughout the Southeast. In Florida, vegetable and fruit producers ran irrigation and wind machines to protect tender vegetation from periods of sub-freezing cold. Although some leafy new growth was lost in citrus groves, tree and fruit damage was minimized. After mid-month, field tillage and preparations for the spring planting season gradually increased throughout the southern States. In the Pacific Northwest, the seasonal stormy pattern briefly abated near mid-month and again at the end of the month. As a result, monthly snowfall in the Cascade, Sierra, and interior Rocky Mountain ranges was below normal in most areas and well below normal in many areas. Dry weather also prevailed in California, permitting nearly uninterrupted work in fields and orchards. Temperatures averaged near normal in California's valleys, but periods of sub-freezing night time temperatures required protective measures. Meanwhile, favorably warm day time temperatures contributed to vigorous growth of winter vegetable, grain, and forage crops. In the Corn Belt, temperatures averaged above normal and included several record and near record highs. Parts of the northern and western Corn Belt also experienced brief periods of sub-zero temperatures, once early in the month and again near the end of the month. Precipitation was below normal across most of the Corn Belt, although the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region were wetter-than-normal. Despite the low precipitation total during February, soil moisture reserves were mostly adequate. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for 2001 is estimated at 34.7 million tons, slightly below the February 1 forecast and 4 percent below last year's record high of 36.1 million tons. Acres harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed is estimated at 1.03 million for the 2001 crop year, slightly less than last year's harvested acres. Yield is estimated at 33.7 tons per acre, down 0.1 ton from February and 1.3 tons below the 2000 crop. In Louisiana, acres harvested for sugar and seed, at 495,000, is 1 percent below last year's record high acreage of 500,000 and is the first year-to-year reduction in harvested acres since 1996. In Florida, acres harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed is 2 percent above the 2000 level and 1 percent above the previous record high of 460,000 acres set in 1999. Heavy rain interrupted harvest in Florida near mid-February. Also, cold weather extended into Florida near the end of February, but damaging sub-freezing temperatures remained well north of the sugarcane producing region. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.14 million pounds for February 2002, down 5 percent from last month and 22 percent lower than a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,555 acres, 1 percent lower than last month and 3 percent less than a year ago. Harvested area, at 1,860 acres, is virtually unchanged from a month ago but up 1 percent from February 2001. Weather conditions for February were variable with sunshine and sometimes heavy rain. Cool temperatures have slowed fruit maturation. Grapefruit: The 2001-02 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.51 million tons, unchanged from the February 1 forecast but 1 percent higher than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast continues at 47.0 million boxes (2.00 million tons), the same as last month but 2 percent above last season's final utilization. Fruit sizes are equal to the smallest recorded level in the 10-season series and loss from droppage is slightly below average. The all white grapefruit forecast remains at 19.0 million boxes (808,000 tons), unchanged from February but 2 percent more than the previous season. The colored seedless utilization is forecast at 28.0 million boxes (1.19 million tons), the same as the February 1 forecast but 3 percent more than the previous season. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts. Tangelos: Florida's 2001-02 tangelo forecast is reduced to 2.20 million boxes (99,000 tons), down 4 percent from the February 1 forecast but 5 percent more than last season's utilized production. The downward adjustment is based on the estimated utilization to date and the declining weekly use. Approximately 30 percent of the crop remains to be harvested. Tangerines: The U.S. tangerine forecast for March 1 is unchanged at 414,000 tons. If realized, it will be 12 percent higher than last season's utilization of 369,000 tons. Florida's tangerine forecast is maintained at 6.40 million boxes (304,000 tons), the same as last month but 14 percent higher than last season. Harvest of the late season Honey variety is more than 60 percent complete. Fruit size is larger than average and loss from droppage is well below the loss that usually occurs by this time of the season. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts. Temples: Florida's 2001-02 Temple forecast is 1.50 million boxes (68,000 tons), up 7 percent from the previous forecast. If realized, it will be the second smallest crop ever recorded, but 20 percent higher than the record low 1.25 million boxes (56,000 tons) utilized last season. Average fruit size is the smallest in the 10-season series but loss from droppage is below normal. K-Early Citrus: The K-Early Citrus Fruit forecast for 2001-02 remains at 30,000 boxes (1,350 tons), unchanged from the February 1 forecast but 10,000 boxes fewer than last season. If realized, this will be the smallest crop of record. Florida Citrus: February was wetter than normal in Florida's citrus belt. This moisture provided ideal conditions for the upcoming bloom period. Temperatures were cool with a few mornings in the lower thirties. There was no serious damage to citrus from the weather. Citrus trees are covered with feathery new growth and bloom buds of all sizes. A few trees in the southern part of the State are in full bloom. Picking crews shifted to the late season Valencia oranges as harvest of early and midseason oranges slowed towards the end of the month. Grapefruit, Temples, and Honey tangerines were also shipped fresh or sent to the juice plants. Caretakers have been fertilizing prior to the bloom period. Hedging and topping of harvested groves continues in all areas. Dead trees are being pushed out and burned. There have been many reports of newly planted trees in the southern counties. California Citrus: The navel orange harvest continued throughout February. Sprays to control fungus were applied in some areas. The Valencia orange harvest began near the middle of the month. Grapefruit picking was ongoing in the desert and in the San Joaquin Valley. Lemons and Minneola tangelos were also picked throughout the month. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities such as pruning, grafting, cultivating, irrigating, and dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. New orchards and vineyards were planted where older plantings had been removed. Crews continued to prune and tie grape vines throughout February. Grape growers also shredded brush, mowed cover crops, fertilized, and applied herbicides to vineyards. Unseasonably warm weather throughout the month initiated the bloom on early and midseason tree fruit varieties. Almond orchards were in bloom and weather conditions were optimal for pollination. Bloom sprays were applied in a few orchards by month's end. Bloom began in some avocado orchards during the last week of February. Strawberry fields were also blooming in some locations. Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 3.6 percent. However, if you exclude the six freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.1 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.6 percent, or 3.1 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.3 percent, or 5.5 percent excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 249,000 tons (216,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 8,000 tons to 713,000 tons. The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 6 times and above 8 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye, Hay, Sorghum (202) 720-8068 Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Mark E. Miller - Oats, Sugar Crops, Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice, Barley (202) 720-7688 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Jim Smith - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-2127 Debbie Flippin - Fresh Vegetables, Mushrooms(202) 720-3250 Steve Gunn - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Prunes, Plums (202) 720-4288 Jim Smith - Noncitrus Fruits, Mint, Dry Peas (202) 720-2127 Jim Smith - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-2127 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Betty Johnston - Nuts, Floriculture, Nursery(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on April 10, 2002. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: http:/www.usda.gov/nass/. Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then Reports by Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION There are two options for subscribing via e-mail. All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 1) Starting with the NASS Home Page at http:/www.usda.gov/nass/, click on Publications, then click on the Subscribe by E-mail button which takes you to the page describing e-mail delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the Subscription Page and follow the instructions. 2) If you do NOT have Internet access, send an e-mail message to: usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu. In the body of the message type the word: list. AUTOFAX ACCESS NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine. Please call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax. Respond to the voice prompts. Document 0411 is a list of available reports. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov.