Cr Pr 2-2 (12-02) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 10, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Cotton Production Down 2 Percent All Orange Production Unchanged from October All cotton production is forecast at 17.4 million 480-pound bales, down 2 percent from November and 14 percent less than last year's record high production. This has resulted in a yield decrease of 17 pounds from last month and 57 pounds from last year. Harvested area, at 12.9 million acres, is unchanged from November but 7 percent below 2001. Southeastern growers are continuing to see the results of adverse weather that has affected their season. The U.S. all orange December forecast for the 2002-03 crop is 11.3 million tons, unchanged from the October 1 forecast but down 10 percent from last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast remains at 197 million boxes (8.87 million tons), 14 percent less than the previous season. Weather conditions this fall have seen temperatures generally below average with normal rainfall in most areas. Early and midseason varieties are forecast at 113 million boxes (5.09 million tons), unchanged from the October forecast but 12 percent below last season. Fruit size followed the typical November growth pattern. Droppage continues to be above average, nearing the maximum of the past 10 seasons. Florida's Valencia forecast is unchanged at 84.0 million boxes (3.78 million tons) but is 18 percent below last season. Fruit size remains above the 10 season maximum. The growth rate is slowing and is expected to continue to slow until harvest. Droppage is above the 10 season average. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the October forecasts. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2002-03 season is forecast at 1.57 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The final all orange yield for the 2001-02 season as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association was 1.58 gallons per box. Projected juice yield for 2002-03 early-midseason and Valencias varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on December 10, 2002. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Keith J. Collins Agricultural Statistics Board Acting Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Beans, Dry Edible. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Coffee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts. . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Pecans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . . . . . . 30 Sugarcane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2001 and Forecasted December 1, 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 2002 : : State : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 :-------------------: 2001 : 2002 : : : : Nov 1 : Dec 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 605.0 585.0 730 615 492 920.0 600.0 AZ : 290.0 232.0 1,142 1,241 1,241 690.0 600.0 AR : 1,065.0 930.0 826 841 852 1,833.0 1,650.0 CA : 625.0 477.0 1,359 1,439 1,439 1,770.0 1,430.0 GA : 1,480.0 1,430.0 720 604 587 2,220.0 1,750.0 LA : 855.0 500.0 580 720 720 1,034.0 750.0 MS : 1,600.0 1,170.0 719 821 788 2,396.0 1,920.0 MO : 400.0 385.0 834 798 761 695.0 610.0 NM : 65.0 56.0 916 857 857 124.0 100.0 NC : 965.0 945.0 832 483 437 1,673.0 860.0 OK : 185.0 190.0 511 455 505 197.0 200.0 SC : 296.0 286.0 686 302 252 423.0 150.0 TN : 615.0 560.0 763 651 686 978.0 800.0 TX : 4,250.0 4,600.0 481 532 522 4,260.0 5,000.0 VA : 104.0 100.0 929 480 480 201.3 100.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 159.5 174.0 566 579 579 188.1 210.0 : US :13,559.5 12,620.0 694 653 636 19,602.4 16,730.0 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 7.5 7.4 928 908 908 14.5 14.0 CA : 239.0 209.0 1,283 1,309 1,332 639.0 580.0 NM : 5.2 7.0 969 960 960 10.5 14.0 TX : 16.5 18.0 1,059 987 987 36.4 37.0 : US : 268.2 241.4 1,254 1,263 1,283 700.4 645.0 : All : AL : 605.0 585.0 730 615 492 920.0 600.0 AZ : 297.5 239.4 1,137 1,231 1,231 704.5 614.0 AR : 1,065.0 930.0 826 841 852 1,833.0 1,650.0 CA : 864.0 686.0 1,338 1,399 1,406 2,409.0 2,010.0 GA : 1,480.0 1,430.0 720 604 587 2,220.0 1,750.0 LA : 855.0 500.0 580 720 720 1,034.0 750.0 MS : 1,600.0 1,170.0 719 821 788 2,396.0 1,920.0 MO : 400.0 385.0 834 798 761 695.0 610.0 NM : 70.2 63.0 920 869 869 134.5 114.0 NC : 965.0 945.0 832 483 437 1,673.0 860.0 OK : 185.0 190.0 511 455 505 197.0 200.0 SC : 296.0 286.0 686 302 252 423.0 150.0 TN : 615.0 560.0 763 651 686 978.0 800.0 TX : 4,266.5 4,618.0 483 534 524 4,296.4 5,037.0 VA : 104.0 100.0 929 480 480 201.3 100.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 159.5 174.0 566 579 579 188.1 210.0 : US :13,827.7 12,861.4 705 665 648 20,302.8 17,375.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3/ Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2002 Summary". Cottonseed: Production, United States, 2000-2001 and Forecasted December 1, 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 6,435.6 7,452.2 6,497.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Oct : 2,700 2,155 1,920 1,495 4,940 4,005 Nov : 2,710 2,155 1,920 1,495 4,330 4,055 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2000-2001, 2001-2002 and Forecasted December 1, 2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :---------------------------------------------------------- : 2000-01 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2000-01 : 2001-02 :2002-03 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 480 270 200 18 10 8 CA 4/ : 35,500 34,000 40,000 1,331 1,275 1,500 FL : 128,000 128,000 113,000 5,760 5,760 5,085 TX 4/ : 2,000 1,530 1,400 85 65 60 US : 165,980 163,800 154,600 7,194 7,110 6,653 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 420 250 250 16 9 9 CA 4/ : 19,000 22,000 23,000 713 825 863 FL : 95,300 102,000 84,000 4,288 4,590 3,780 TX 4/ : 235 210 180 10 9 8 US : 114,955 124,460 107,430 5,027 5,433 4,660 All : AZ 4/ : 900 520 450 34 19 17 CA 4/ : 54,500 56,000 63,000 2,044 2,100 2,363 FL : 223,300 230,000 197,000 10,048 10,350 8,865 TX 4/ : 2,235 1,740 1,580 95 74 68 US : 280,935 288,260 262,030 12,221 12,543 11,313 Temples : FL : 1,250 1,550 1,400 56 70 63 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 18,700 18,900 16,000 795 803 680 Colored Seedless : FL : 27,300 27,800 24,000 1,160 1,182 1,020 All : AZ 4/ : 250 160 100 8 5 3 CA 4/ : 6,300 6,000 6,200 211 201 208 FL : 46,000 46,700 40,000 1,955 1,985 1,700 TX 4/ : 7,200 5,900 5,600 288 236 224 US : 59,750 58,760 51,900 2,462 2,427 2,135 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 650 620 450 24 23 17 CA 4/ 6/ : 2,200 2,200 2,300 83 83 86 FL 7/ : 5,600 6,600 5,200 266 314 247 US : 8,450 9,420 7,950 373 420 350 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,600 2,800 2,800 137 106 106 CA : 22,600 19,000 21,000 859 722 798 US : 26,200 21,800 23,800 996 828 904 Tangelos : FL : 2,100 2,150 2,400 95 97 108 K-Early Citrus 8/ : FL : 40 30 2 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5/ Includes seedy. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 7/ 2000-01 through 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey varieties only. 8/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2000-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 115.0 88.0 92.0 112.0 85.0 89.0 CO : 120.0 115.0 92.0 110.0 105.0 85.0 ID : 90.0 75.0 95.0 88.0 73.0 93.0 KS : 18.0 15.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 14.5 MI : 285.0 215.0 270.0 275.0 130.0 265.0 MN : 165.0 115.0 170.0 150.0 105.0 150.0 MT : 40.5 43.5 26.5 34.8 28.5 23.0 NE : 165.0 160.0 185.0 156.0 148.0 165.0 NM 2/ : 15.0 8.0 15.0 8.0 NY : 25.0 23.0 25.0 24.5 22.3 24.5 ND : 610.0 440.0 790.0 525.0 400.0 690.0 OR : 12.0 10.0 9.8 11.7 9.5 9.1 SD : 11.0 18.0 21.0 10.8 17.0 16.0 TX : 20.0 30.0 37.5 16.6 26.4 32.5 UT : 5.4 6.1 1.8 3.0 5.7 0.3 WA : 32.0 34.0 41.0 32.0 34.0 41.0 WI : 8.3 6.3 7.1 8.1 6.1 7.0 WY : 36.0 27.0 30.0 34.0 24.0 27.0 : US : 1,758.2 1,435.9 1,919.7 1,607.5 1,248.5 1,739.9 :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Acre 3/ : Production 3/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ---------- 1,000 Cwt --------- : CA : 1,840 1,760 2,030 2,059 1,496 1,807 CO : 1,800 1,700 2,100 1,980 1,785 1,785 ID : 1,950 1,950 2,000 1,716 1,424 1,860 KS : 1,810 1,850 1,100 289 259 160 MI : 1,500 600 1,850 4,125 780 4,903 MN : 1,600 1,500 1,650 2,400 1,575 2,475 MT : 1,400 1,320 1,630 486 376 374 NE : 2,070 2,150 2,100 3,230 3,185 3,465 NM 2/ : 2,000 1,800 300 144 NY : 1,460 870 1,360 358 194 333 ND : 1,450 1,550 1,530 7,613 6,200 10,557 OR : 1,800 1,810 1,730 211 172 157 SD : 2,090 1,590 1,630 226 270 261 TX : 950 1,320 970 158 348 315 UT : 330 300 1,670 10 17 5 WA : 2,000 1,700 2,000 640 578 818 WI : 1,800 1,800 1,960 146 110 137 WY : 2,240 2,140 2,200 762 514 594 : US : 1,643 1,569 1,733 26,409 19,583 30,150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2/ Estimates discontinued in 2000, reinstated in 2001. 3/ Clean Basis. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 2000-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Large Lima : CA : 20.5 14.8 19.0 19.5 14.5 18.2 : Baby Lima : CA : 24.5 12.2 21.5 23.5 11.5 21.0 : Navy : ID : 7.3 3.0 5.4 7.1 2.9 5.3 MI : 125.0 65.0 85.0 120.0 30.0 84.0 MN : 66.0 48.0 67.0 60.0 44.0 58.0 NE : 4.0 2.9 3.5 2.7 ND : 138.0 95.0 180.0 111.0 85.0 151.0 OR : 0.7 0.6 SD : 3.2 1.3 4.0 3.1 1.1 3.9 WY : 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.8 0.8 1.5 : Total : 346.2 213.3 346.3 307.1 163.8 306.4 : Great Northern : ID : 7.2 4.2 3.1 7.0 4.1 3.0 MI : 8.0 3.0 3.5 3.0 MN : 2.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 0.9 1.0 NE : 104.5 84.0 77.8 100.0 79.0 67.7 ND : 6.5 8.0 5.8 5.5 7.5 4.9 WA : 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 WY : 7.0 3.0 3.0 6.8 2.5 2.0 : Total : 128.9 109.5 94.8 122.7 98.7 82.5 : Small White : ID : 1.4 0.9 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.3 OR : 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 WA : 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.8 : Total : 2.9 1.8 1.6 2.9 1.8 1.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 2000-2002 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre 1/ : Production 1/ and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : Large Lima : CA : 2,240 2,250 1,980 437 326 360 : Baby Lima : CA : 2,310 2,040 2,330 542 235 490 : Navy : ID : 2,250 2,170 2,250 160 63 119 MI : 1,500 570 1,930 1,800 170 1,620 MN : 1,650 1,620 1,800 990 713 1,043 NE : 2,200 2,520 77 68 ND : 1,460 1,560 1,540 1,620 1,327 2,325 OR : 1,170 7 SD : 2,480 2,270 2,460 77 25 96 WY : 2,220 1,630 2,270 40 13 34 : Total : 1,554 1,411 1,731 4,771 2,311 5,305 : Great Northern : ID : 2,090 2,150 2,100 146 88 63 MI : 570 2,000 20 60 MN : 1,520 1,440 1,200 35 13 12 NE : 2,040 2,260 1,900 2,040 1,786 1,286 ND : 1,510 1,710 1,510 83 128 74 WA : 2,180 2,250 2,220 24 27 20 WY : 2,370 1,840 2,050 161 46 41 : Total : 2,029 2,136 1,886 2,489 2,108 1,556 : Small White : ID : 2,070 2,220 2,000 29 20 6 OR : 2,670 2,200 2,400 16 11 12 WA : 2,110 2,000 1,880 19 8 15 : Total : 2,207 2,167 2,063 64 39 33 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Clean Basis. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 2000-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Pinto : CO : 100.0 98.0 76.0 92.0 89.0 71.0 ID : 29.0 22.2 35.8 28.2 21.5 35.0 KS : 17.3 13.5 15.5 12.6 MI : 21.0 7.0 9.5 20.0 4.5 9.5 MN : 39.0 13.0 25.0 34.0 12.0 22.0 MT : 14.5 11.5 13.5 13.8 10.0 13.1 NE : 39.0 53.5 80.7 36.0 47.5 76.0 NM 1/ : 15.0 8.0 15.0 8.0 ND : 411.0 286.0 515.0 363.0 261.0 460.0 OR : 2.5 2.1 1.3 2.4 1.9 1.3 SD : 2.3 2.0 3.2 2.3 2.0 2.8 TX : 1.0 1.0 5.5 1.0 0.9 4.5 UT : 5.4 6.1 1.8 3.0 5.7 0.3 WA : 10.5 4.2 11.0 10.5 4.2 11.0 WY : 26.0 22.0 23.0 24.5 20.0 22.0 : Total : 718.5 557.1 809.3 646.2 507.8 736.5 : Light Red : Kidney : CA : 11.0 6.2 6.0 11.0 6.2 6.0 CO : 12.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 8.4 9.0 ID : 1.6 0.6 1.3 1.6 0.6 1.3 MI : 19.0 18.0 15.0 19.0 11.0 14.5 MN : 10.0 8.2 7.6 9.6 7.7 7.2 NE : 13.0 11.5 14.0 12.3 11.0 13.7 NY : 15.0 13.3 15.0 14.6 13.1 14.7 WA : 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.4 : Total : 83.0 67.8 70.3 80.5 59.0 67.8 : Dark Red : Kidney : CA : 6.0 2.5 2.5 6.0 2.5 2.5 ID : 1.1 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.8 1.4 MI : 12.0 9.0 8.5 12.0 7.0 8.0 MN : 32.0 31.0 42.0 30.0 29.0 38.0 NY : 1.9 1.2 2.0 1.8 1.2 2.0 ND : 4.0 5.0 7.0 3.5 4.7 5.1 WI : 8.3 6.3 7.1 8.1 6.1 7.0 : Total : 65.3 56.9 70.5 62.5 52.3 64.0 : Pink : CA : 0.7 0.7 ID : 3.3 4.9 11.6 3.3 4.8 11.4 MN : 6.0 6.6 8.9 5.8 5.6 8.3 ND : 4.0 4.0 9.0 3.5 3.8 7.8 WA : 4.2 4.5 6.1 4.2 4.5 6.1 : Total : 18.2 20.0 35.6 17.5 18.7 33.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 2000-2002 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre 2/ : Production 2/ and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- -------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : Pinto : CO : 1,820 1,720 2,150 1,675 1,530 1,526 ID : 2,270 2,420 2,290 641 521 801 KS : 1,800 1,860 279 234 MI : 1,450 510 1,930 290 23 183 MN : 1,450 1,300 1,350 494 156 297 MT : 2,400 2,000 2,210 331 200 289 NE : 2,080 2,210 2,250 749 1,050 1,709 NM 1/ : 2,000 1,800 300 144 ND : 1,460 1,550 1,550 5,294 4,050 7,130 OR : 2,420 2,420 2,310 58 46 30 SD : 2,480 2,250 2,610 57 45 73 TX : 800 1,670 640 8 15 29 UT : 330 300 1,670 10 17 5 WA : 2,300 2,240 2,550 242 94 280 WY : 2,210 2,200 2,200 542 440 484 : Total : 1,651 1,717 1,762 10,670 8,721 12,980 : Light Red : Kidney : CA : 1,480 1,450 1,800 163 90 108 CO : 1,750 1,610 2,040 193 135 184 ID : 1,690 1,670 1,920 27 10 25 MI : 1,500 770 1,790 285 85 260 MN : 1,850 1,490 1,950 178 115 140 NE : 2,200 1,900 2,300 271 209 315 NY : 1,430 850 1,300 209 112 191 WA : 1,860 2,000 2,140 26 20 30 : Total : 1,680 1,315 1,848 1,352 776 1,253 : Dark Red : Kidney : CA : 1,370 1,600 2,000 82 40 50 ID : 1,910 1,890 1,860 21 34 26 MI : 1,520 430 1,630 182 30 130 MN : 1,700 1,500 1,700 510 435 646 NY : 1,280 830 1,350 23 10 27 ND : 1,430 1,450 1,330 50 68 68 WI : 1,800 1,800 1,960 146 110 137 : Total : 1,622 1,390 1,694 1,014 727 1,084 : Pink : CA : 860 6 ID : 2,120 2,270 2,060 70 109 235 MN : 1,470 1,050 1,600 85 59 133 ND : 1,570 1,550 1,590 55 59 124 WA : 2,480 2,200 2,100 104 99 128 : Total : 1,829 1,743 1,845 320 326 620 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2000, reinstated in 2001. 2/ Clean Basis. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 2000-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Small Red : ID : 7.2 3.8 11.6 7.0 3.7 11.3 MI : 8.0 12.0 11.0 8.0 6.5 11.0 MN : 2.8 2.4 WA : 2.2 3.0 6.4 2.2 3.0 6.4 : Total : 17.4 18.8 31.8 17.2 13.2 31.1 : Cranberry : CA : 3.5 1.5 1.7 3.5 1.5 1.7 ID : 1.4 2.6 2.5 1.4 2.6 2.5 MI : 26.0 26.0 20.0 25.0 12.0 19.0 MN : 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 : Total : 31.7 30.7 24.2 30.4 16.6 23.2 : Black : CA : 1.0 1.0 ID : 1.1 0.6 4.0 1.1 0.6 3.9 MI : 55.0 63.0 110.0 53.0 52.0 108.0 MN : 4.9 2.0 11.9 4.3 1.3 10.0 NE : 0.8 1.1 2.3 0.8 1.0 2.1 NY : 5.2 6.7 6.0 5.2 6.3 5.8 ND : 25.0 19.0 60.0 22.0 18.0 51.0 WA : 1.2 2.0 2.6 1.2 2.0 2.6 : Total : 94.2 94.4 196.8 88.6 81.2 183.4 : Blackeye : CA : 15.3 12.0 12.6 15.3 12.0 12.4 TX : 7.5 20.0 22.0 5.8 17.5 20.0 : Total : 22.8 32.0 34.6 21.1 29.5 32.4 : Garbanzo : CA : 24.5 29.0 18.5 23.5 27.0 18.0 ID : 28.6 28.8 17.0 28.0 28.0 16.6 MT : 25.3 31.5 12.6 20.5 18.0 9.5 NE : 6.3 6.0 ND : 15.0 19.0 8.6 11.0 16.5 6.2 OR : 5.8 5.0 4.0 5.8 4.7 3.7 SD : 4.0 12.1 10.3 3.9 11.3 5.8 WA : 9.5 17.0 11.0 9.5 17.0 11.0 : Total : 112.7 148.7 82.0 102.2 128.5 70.8 : Other : CA : 8.0 9.8 10.2 8.0 9.8 9.2 CO : 8.0 8.0 6.0 7.0 7.6 5.0 ID : 0.8 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.0 KS : 0.7 1.5 18.0 0.5 1.4 14.5 MI : 19.0 7.0 8.0 18.0 3.5 8.0 MN : 3.7 4.5 3.6 3.5 4.0 3.1 MT : 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 NE : 3.7 3.6 7.3 3.4 3.5 2.8 NY : 2.9 1.8 2.0 2.9 1.7 2.0 ND : 6.5 4.0 4.6 5.5 3.5 4.0 OR : 2.4 2.4 4.0 2.3 2.4 3.6 SD : 1.5 2.6 3.5 1.5 2.6 3.5 TX : 11.5 9.0 10.0 9.8 8.0 8.0 WA : 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.8 WY : 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.9 0.7 1.5 : Total : 71.4 57.9 81.4 65.6 51.4 67.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 2000-2002 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre 1/ : Production 1/ and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : Small Red : ID : 2,100 2,240 2,140 147 83 242 MI : 1,410 420 1,890 113 27 208 MN : 1,100 26 WA : 2,410 2,070 2,270 53 62 145 : Total : 1,820 1,303 1,997 313 172 621 : Cranberry : CA : 1,060 2,000 1,350 37 30 23 ID : 1,790 1,540 1,600 25 40 40 MI : 1,520 580 1,530 380 70 290 MN : 1,400 1,400 7 7 : Total : 1,477 886 1,522 449 147 353 : Black : CA : 500 5 ID : 2,180 2,170 1,950 24 13 76 MI : 1,580 640 1,880 840 335 2,030 MN : 1,330 1,230 1,300 57 16 130 NE : 2,250 2,200 1,810 18 22 38 NY : 1,500 940 1,570 78 59 91 ND : 1,280 1,600 1,350 282 288 689 WA : 2,670 2,500 2,310 32 50 60 : Total : 1,508 964 1,698 1,336 783 3,114 : Blackeye : CA : 2,160 2,420 2,290 330 290 284 TX : 900 1,500 1,150 52 263 230 : Total : 1,810 1,875 1,586 382 553 514 : Garbanzo : CA : 1,460 1,270 1,790 343 342 323 ID : 1,460 1,470 1,240 410 412 206 MT : 730 950 810 150 171 77 NE : 800 48 ND : 1,320 1,400 1,470 145 231 91 OR : 1,330 1,340 760 77 63 28 SD : 1,670 1,250 430 65 141 25 WA : 1,240 1,200 1,120 118 204 123 : Total : 1,280 1,254 1,233 1,308 1,612 873 : Other : CA : 1,430 1,460 1,840 114 143 169 CO : 1,600 1,580 1,500 112 120 75 ID : 2,000 2,070 2,100 16 31 21 KS : 2,000 1,790 1,100 10 25 160 MI : 1,310 570 1,530 235 20 122 MN : 1,260 1,530 1,550 44 61 48 MT : 1,000 1,000 2,000 5 5 8 NE : 2,210 2,000 1,750 75 70 49 NY : 1,660 760 1,200 48 13 24 ND : 1,530 1,400 1,400 84 49 56 OR : 2,300 2,170 2,420 53 52 87 SD : 1,800 2,270 1,910 27 59 67 TX : 1,000 880 700 98 70 56 WA : 2,200 2,000 2,130 22 14 17 WY : 2,110 2,140 2,330 19 15 35 : Total : 1,466 1,453 1,475 962 747 994 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Clean Basis. Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2000-2001 and Forecasted December 1, 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds Improved Varieties 1/ : AL : 10,000 10,000 6,500 AZ : 14,500 21,000 14,000 AR 2/ : 650 1,950 1,200 CA 2/ : 3,400 3,700 2,800 FL 2/ : 1,200 1,200 900 GA : 65,000 85,000 42,000 LA : 3,500 3,500 2,000 MS 2/ : 2,500 3,000 2,200 NM : 35,000 60,000 36,000 NC 2/ : 1,400 2,700 1,700 OK : 200 2,000 2,000 SC 2/ : 1,200 2,500 800 TX : 22,000 50,000 25,000 : US : 160,550 246,550 137,100 : Native & Seedling : AL : 5,000 5,000 500 AR 2/ : 250 650 500 FL 2/ : 2,100 2,100 600 GA : 15,000 25,000 3,000 KS 2/ : 550 2,200 1,700 LA : 14,500 10,500 4,000 MS 2/ : 1,000 1,500 800 NC 2/ : 200 500 300 OK : 2,300 18,000 12,000 SC 2/ : 400 1,500 200 TX : 8,000 25,000 15,000 : US : 49,300 91,950 38,600 : All Pecans : AL : 15,000 15,000 7,000 AZ : 14,500 21,000 14,000 AR 2/ : 900 2,600 1,700 CA 2/ : 3,400 3,700 2,800 FL 2/ : 3,300 3,300 1,500 GA : 80,000 110,000 45,000 KS 2/ : 550 2,200 1,700 LA : 18,000 14,000 6,000 MS 2/ : 3,500 4,500 3,000 NM : 35,000 60,000 36,000 NC 2/ : 1,600 3,200 2,000 OK : 2,500 20,000 14,000 SC 2/ : 1,600 4,000 1,000 TX : 30,000 75,000 40,000 : US : 209,850 338,500 175,700 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2001 and Forecasted December 1, 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2002 : : : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 :-------------------: 2001 : 2002 : : : : Nov 1 : Dec 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :-- 1,000 Acres -- --------- Tons -------- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 445.0 440.0 35.1 36.9 15,620 16,236 HI : 19.3 23.6 97.3 94.3 1,878 2,225 LA : 460.0 460.0 29.0 30.0 13,340 13,800 TX : 46.0 43.8 42.1 37.7 1,937 1,651 : US : 970.3 967.4 33.8 35.1 32,775 33,912 : For Seed : FL : 20.0 21.0 35.9 38.0 718 798 HI : 1.7 1.5 32.0 39.1 54 59 LA : 35.0 35.0 29.0 30.0 1,015 1,050 TX : 1.0 1.2 25.0 30.0 25 36 : US : 57.7 58.7 31.4 33.1 1,812 1,943 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 465.0 461.0 35.1 36.4 37.0 16,338 17,034 HI : 21.0 25.1 92.0 91.0 91.0 1,932 2,284 LA : 495.0 495.0 29.0 30.0 30.0 14,355 14,850 TX : 47.0 45.0 41.7 34.8 37.5 1,962 1,687 : US :1,028.0 1,026.1 33.6 34.6 34.9 34,587 35,855 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Coffee: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Hawaii 2000-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- :2000-01:2001-02:2002-03:2000-01:2001-02:2002-03:2000-01:2001-02:2002-03 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Acres ------- ------- Pounds ------ ---- 1,000 Pounds --- : HI : 6,800 6,300 6,200 1,280 1,270 1,370 8,700 8,000 8,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Parchment basis. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,967.0 5,073.0 4,289.0 4,135.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 75,752.0 78,847.0 68,808.0 70,541.0 Corn for Silage : 6,148.0 Hay, All : 63,511.0 64,709.0 Alfalfa : 23,812.0 24,134.0 All Other : 39,699.0 40,575.0 Oats : 4,403.0 5,005.0 1,905.0 2,098.0 Proso Millet : 650.0 475.0 580.0 Rice : 3,335.0 3,231.0 3,314.0 3,207.0 Rye : 1,328.0 1,395.0 255.0 286.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 10,252.0 9,290.0 8,584.0 7,528.0 Sorghum for Silage : 336.0 Wheat, All : 59,597.0 60,358.0 48,633.0 45,817.0 Winter : 41,078.0 41,735.0 31,295.0 29,651.0 Durum : 2,910.0 2,909.0 2,789.0 2,703.0 Other Spring : 15,609.0 15,714.0 14,549.0 13,463.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,494.0 1,513.0 1,455.0 1,378.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 585.0 844.0 578.0 821.0 Mustard Seed : 45.8 155.0 44.2 146.0 Peanuts : 1,541.2 1,462.0 1,411.9 1,360.5 Rapeseed : 3.7 2.0 3.1 1.8 Safflower : 188.0 207.0 177.0 198.0 Soybeans for Beans : 74,075.0 73,043.0 72,975.0 71,799.0 Sunflowers : 2,633.0 2,486.0 2,555.0 2,320.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 15,768.5 14,380.5 13,827.7 12,861.4 Upland : 15,498.5 14,116.0 13,559.5 12,620.0 Amer-Pima : 270.0 264.5 268.2 241.4 Sugarbeets : 1,370.8 1,408.8 1,243.6 1,356.3 Sugarcane : 1,028.0 1,026.1 Tobacco : 432.4 434.3 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 15.9 17.0 7.1 8.5 Dry Edible Beans : 1,435.9 1,919.7 1,248.5 1,739.9 Dry Edible Peas : 206.8 293.7 192.3 267.7 Lentils : 201.0 203.0 197.0 193.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 6.2 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.4 0.3 Hops : 35.9 29.3 Peppermint Oil : 78.5 Potatoes, All : 1,247.7 1,308.1 1,222.2 1,271.1 Winter : 16.8 15.8 14.0 15.7 Spring : 78.3 80.3 76.2 77.7 Summer : 61.1 63.6 58.8 60.6 Fall : 1,091.5 1,148.4 1,073.2 1,117.1 Spearmint Oil : 19.5 Sweet Potatoes : 97.9 94.4 93.5 91.8 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 58.2 54.9 249,420 226,873 Corn for Grain : " : 138.2 127.6 9,506,840 9,003,364 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.6 102,352 Hay, All : " : 2.47 2.32 156,703 150,447 Alfalfa : " : 3.37 3.09 80,266 74,655 All Other : " : 1.93 1.87 76,437 75,792 Oats : Bu : 61.4 56.8 117,024 119,132 Proso Millet : " : 33.2 19,250 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,429 6,611 213,045 212,013 Rye : Bu : 27.3 24.4 6,971 6,985 Sorghum for Grain : " : 59.9 50.7 514,524 381,499 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 11.1 3,728 Wheat, All : Bu : 40.2 35.3 1,957,043 1,616,441 Winter : " : 43.5 38.5 1,361,479 1,142,802 Durum : " : 30.0 29.4 83,556 79,450 Other Spring : " : 35.2 29.3 512,008 394,189 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,374 1,151 1,998,515 1,585,925 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 7,452.2 6,497.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 19.8 11,455 Mustard Seed : Lb : 930 41,106 Peanuts : " : 3,029 2,579 4,276,704 3,508,650 Rapeseed : " : 1,306 4,050 Safflower : " : 1,365 241,665 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 39.6 37.5 2,890,682 2,689,691 Sunflowers : Lb : 1,338 1,118 3,418,759 2,592,753 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 705 648 20,302.8 17,375.0 Upland 2/ : " : 694 636 19,602.4 16,730.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,254 1,283 700.4 645.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.7 20.7 25,787 28,028 Sugarcane : " : 33.6 34.9 34,587 35,855 Tobacco : Lb : 2,293 2,040 991,519 886,020 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,366 1,424 97 121 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,569 1,733 19,583 30,150 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,942 1,561 3,734 4,178 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,471 1,205 2,898 2,325 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 640 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,270 1,370 8,000 8,500 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 50,000 45,000 18,000 14,400 Hops : " : 1,861 1,927 66,832.1 56,425.5 Peppermint Oil : " : 81 6,343 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 358 362 437,888 459,734 Winter : " : 294 268 4,115 4,206 Spring : " : 286 280 21,814 21,753 Summer : " : 310 310 18,209 18,813 Fall : " : 367 371 393,750 414,962 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 105 2,052 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 156 14,565 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,462 2,427 2,135 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/: " : 2 1 Lemons : " : 996 828 904 Oranges : " : 12,221 12,543 11,313 Tangelos (FL) : " : 95 97 108 Tangerines : " : 373 420 350 Temples (FL) : " : 56 70 63 : : Non-Citrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 9,629.1 8,910.6 Apricots : Ton : 82.5 89.7 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 28,000.0 Grapes : Ton : 6,552.5 7,269.3 Olives (CA) : " : 134.0 90.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 55,000.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,441.4 2,531.7 Pears : Ton : 1,005.8 944.6 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 150.0 155.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 21.2 15.2 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 830,000 980,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 49.5 18.0 Pecans : Lb : 338,500 175,700 Pistachios (CA) : " : 161,000 280,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 305.0 275.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,049 1,356 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2001-2002 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,010,100 2,052,990 1,735,720 1,673,390 Corn for Grain 2/ :30,656,080 31,908,590 27,845,910 28,547,240 Corn for Silage : 2,488,030 Hay, All 3/ : 25,702,270 26,187,090 Alfalfa : 9,636,480 9,766,790 All Other : 16,065,790 16,420,300 Oats : 1,781,850 2,025,470 770,930 849,040 Proso Millet : 263,050 192,230 234,720 Rice : 1,349,640 1,307,550 1,341,140 1,297,840 Rye : 537,430 564,540 103,200 115,740 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 4,148,880 3,759,570 3,473,860 3,046,510 Sorghum for Silage : 135,980 Wheat, All 3/ :24,118,310 24,426,280 19,681,290 18,541,680 Winter :16,623,860 16,889,740 12,664,770 11,999,460 Durum : 1,177,650 1,177,240 1,128,680 1,093,880 Other Spring : 6,316,810 6,359,300 5,887,830 5,448,340 : Oilseeds : Canola : 604,610 612,300 588,820 557,660 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 236,740 341,560 233,910 332,250 Mustard Seed : 18,530 62,730 17,890 59,080 Peanuts : 623,710 591,660 571,380 550,580 Rapeseed : 1,500 810 1,250 730 Safflower : 76,080 83,770 71,630 80,130 Soybeans for Beans :29,977,410 29,559,770 29,532,250 29,056,340 Sunflowers : 1,065,550 1,006,060 1,033,980 938,880 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 6,381,350 5,819,640 5,595,930 5,204,880 Upland : 6,272,090 5,712,600 5,487,390 5,107,190 Amer-Pima : 109,270 107,040 108,540 97,690 Sugarbeets : 554,750 570,130 503,270 548,880 Sugarcane : 416,020 415,250 Tobacco : 174,990 175,760 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 6,430 6,880 2,870 3,440 Dry Edible Beans : 581,090 758,510 505,260 684,170 Dry Edible Peas : 83,690 118,860 77,820 108,340 Lentils : 81,340 82,150 79,720 78,110 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 2,510 Ginger Root (HI) : 150 130 Hops : 14,530 11,850 Peppermint Oil : 31,770 Potatoes, All 3/ : 504,930 529,370 494,610 514,400 Winter : 6,800 6,390 5,670 6,350 Spring : 31,690 32,500 30,840 31,440 Summer : 24,730 25,740 23,800 24,520 Fall : 441,720 464,750 434,310 452,080 Spearmint Oil : 7,890 Sweet Potatoes : 39,620 38,200 37,840 37,150 Taro (HI) 4/ : 180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2001-2002 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.13 2.95 5,430,480 4,939,580 Corn for Grain : 8.67 8.01 241,484,860 228,695,980 Corn for Silage : 37.32 92,852,170 Hay, All 2/ : 5.53 5.21 142,158,570 136,483,220 Alfalfa : 7.56 6.93 72,816,090 67,725,880 All Other : 4.32 4.19 69,342,480 68,757,350 Oats : 2.20 2.04 1,698,600 1,729,200 Proso Millet : 1.86 436,580 Rice : 7.21 7.41 9,663,560 9,616,750 Rye : 1.72 1.53 177,070 177,430 Sorghum for Grain : 3.76 3.18 13,069,510 9,690,520 Sorghum for Silage : 24.87 3,381,980 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.71 2.37 53,261,980 43,992,310 Winter : 2.93 2.59 37,053,390 31,101,970 Durum : 2.01 1.98 2,274,020 2,162,270 Other Spring : 2.37 1.97 13,934,570 10,728,070 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.54 1.29 906,510 719,360 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,760,520 5,893,980 Flaxseed : 1.24 290,970 Mustard Seed : 1.04 18,650 Peanuts : 3.40 2.89 1,939,880 1,591,500 Rapeseed : 1.46 1,840 Safflower : 1.53 109,620 Soybeans for Beans : 2.66 2.52 78,671,470 73,201,390 Sunflowers : 1.50 1.25 1,550,720 1,176,050 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.79 0.73 4,420,410 3,782,960 Upland : 0.78 0.71 4,267,920 3,642,530 Amer-Pima : 1.40 1.44 152,490 140,430 Sugarbeets : 46.48 46.32 23,393,570 25,426,570 Sugarcane : 75.42 78.33 31,376,800 32,527,110 Tobacco : 2.57 2.29 449,750 401,890 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.53 1.60 4,400 5,490 Dry Edible Beans : 1.76 1.94 888,270 1,367,580 Dry Edible Peas : 2.18 1.75 169,370 189,510 Lentils : 1.65 1.35 131,450 105,460 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 29,030 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.42 1.54 3,630 3,860 Ginger Root (HI) : 56.04 50.44 8,160 6,530 Hops : 2.09 2.16 30,310 25,590 Peppermint Oil : 0.09 2,880 Potatoes, All 2/ : 40.16 40.54 19,862,270 20,853,180 Winter : 32.94 30.03 186,650 190,780 Spring : 32.09 31.38 989,470 986,700 Summer : 34.71 34.80 825,950 853,340 Fall : 41.12 41.64 17,860,200 18,822,360 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 930 Sweet Potatoes : 17.46 660,660 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2002 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,233,490 2,201,740 1,936,840 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/ : 1,810 910 Lemons : 903,560 751,150 820,100 Oranges : 11,086,700 11,378,820 10,262,980 Tangelos (FL) : 86,180 88,000 97,980 Tangerines : 338,380 381,020 317,510 Temples (FL) : 50,800 63,500 57,150 : Apples : 4,367,690 4,041,780 Apricots : 74,810 81,370 Bananas (HI) : 12,700 Grapes : 5,944,350 6,594,600 Olives (CA) : 121,560 81,650 Papayas (HI) : 24,950 Peaches : 1,107,400 1,148,360 Pears : 912,460 856,880 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 136,080 140,610 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 19,230 13,790 : Almonds (CA) : 376,480 444,520 Hazelnuts : 44,910 16,330 Pecans : 153,540 79,700 Pistachios (CA) : 73,030 127,010 Walnuts (CA) : 276,690 249,480 Maple Syrup : 5,240 6,780 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Cotton: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting Objective Yield surveys in 7 cotton producing States during 2002. Randomly selected cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, and Selected States, 1998-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1998 : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep : 637 720 874 747 840 : Oct : 644 700 767 780 763 : Nov : 633 693 755 816 784 : Dec : 638 689 755 756 772 : Final : 640 689 755 756 : : CA : Sep : 755 921 760 939 945 : Oct : 670 805 790 902 1,041 : Nov : 665 779 801 921 1,009 : Dec : 655 777 800 918 1,011 : Final : 655 776 800 918 : : GA : Sep : 629 596 597 590 569 : Oct : 731 582 631 677 604 : Nov : 716 621 621 651 591 : Dec : 690 636 629 664 600 : Final : 690 632 629 664 : : LA : Sep : 694 722 722 625 663 : Oct : 607 743 692 592 756 : Nov : 600 728 674 582 749 : Dec : 600 728 674 588 742 : Final : 600 728 674 588 : : MS : Sep : 835 761 657 754 802 : Oct : 852 803 665 696 783 : Nov : 823 767 652 680 768 : Dec : 821 766 650 679 767 : Final : 821 766 650 679 : : NC : Sep : 626 623 670 719 636 : Oct : 583 646 724 722 629 : Nov : 590 619 743 696 560 : Dec : 597 621 747 705 567 : Final : 597 622 747 705 : : TX : Sep : 498 465 408 441 536 : Oct : 467 446 388 435 511 : Nov : 477 447 397 439 520 : Dec : 479 455 404 445 497 : Final : 482 456 448 445 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs, per 40 feet of row. In November and December, excludes small bolls. November Weather Summary Little precipitation fell across the central and north-central United States during November, while below-normal totals were observed in the Northwest. In California, the Great Basin, and parts of the Southwest, the majority of the month's precipitation fell during the passage of a single storm system from November 7-9. A similar pattern was noted in the western Gulf Coast region, where little rain fell after November 4. Consistent November precipitation was confined to the East, where monthly totals were generally near to above normal. Despite diminished storminess (compared to October) across the South, an extended Pacific jet stream remained apparent in areas stretching from the vicinity of the International Date Line to the southern tier of the United States. The Pacific jet stream, enhanced by a moderately strong El Ni¤o, contributed moisture to several storm systems, primarily across the eastern one-third of the country. In the Delta, a three-week spell of mostly dry weather allowed for a gradual resumption of fieldwork (winter wheat planting and final summer crop harvesting), following a final, early-November round of downpours and lowland flooding. Although wet weather continued to hamper fieldwork in the Southeast, rain further eased long-term drought. Farther north, cold weather slowed or halted winter wheat development from the middle Mississippi Valley to the lower Great Lakes region. Elsewhere in the Midwest, cool, dry weather aided final summer crop harvesting but increased stress on livestock. Farther west, drought-reduced soil moisture reserves hindered winter wheat establishment across the northern and central High Plains and the Northwest, leaving a portion of the crop susceptible to potential winter weather extremes, such as high winds and low temperatures. In contrast, occasional showers on the southern Plains aided pastures and winter grains, but slowed summer crop harvesting. Despite November 7-9 precipitation, the West continued to experience a variety of drought-related problems, including limited irrigation reserves and severely stressed rangelands. Temperature patterns were governed by an amplified polar jet stream, which beginning in early October arched northward into Alaska and dipped southward into the continental United States. The jet stream's southward push drove cold air across most of the Lower 48 by the end of October. A slight eastward shift in the jet-stream configuration brought a return of mild weather to the West and northern High Plains during November, but the Midwest, South, and East continued to experience below-normal temperatures. Monthly readings ranged from 6 degrees F below normal in parts of Florida to as much as 8 degrees F above normal on the Montana High Plains. November Crop Summary Row crop harvest continued with only brief rain delays in the Corn Belt but remained slow across most of the South due to persistent rain. Above-normal temperatures stimulated germination and growth of winter wheat on the central and northern Great Plains most of the month, although moisture shortages limited development in many areas. Meanwhile, mild temperatures and adequate topsoil moisture aided winter wheat development in the Corn Belt and southern Great Plains. In the West, one strong storm delivered much-needed precipitation along the Pacific Coast, but total precipitation for November remained far below-normal in the interior Pacific Northwest. In the Southwest, above-normal temperatures promoted development of fruit and vegetable crops, winter grains, and forages. In the Florida Panhandle, late-month frost and unseasonably cold weather halted growth of forages, but citrus groves in the Peninsula remained in good condition. Favorably dry weather supported the corn harvest during most of the month, although nearly all areas of the Corn Belt experienced at least brief delays due to rain or snow at the beginning of the month. Also, parts of the eastern Corn Belt experienced additional rain delays near midmonth. Despite favorably dry weather, harvest progressed behind normal across most of the northwestern Corn Belt and adjacent parts of the Great Plains. Early month harvest progress lagged most in Minnesota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, harvest was nearly complete along the southern boundary of the Corn Belt. After midmonth, harvest remained active across the upper Mississippi Valley and adjacent areas of the Great Plains, but was virtually complete across the central and eastern Corn Belt by November 24. Meanwhile, high grain moisture content hampered progress on the central High Plains. Nationally, harvest was 97 percent complete on November 24, compared with the 5-year average of 98 percent. Soybean harvest approached completion across most of the Corn Belt with few delays during November, although the eastern Corn Belt experienced occasional, brief rain delays. Early-month progress remained active in the upper Mississippi Valley, but by midmonth, harvest activity in the Corn Belt was mostly concentrated along the lower Ohio River Valley and along the western boundary, adjacent to the central Great Plains. In the lower Mississippi Valley, heavy rain delayed harvest through the first half of the month, and progress ranged from 2 to 4 weeks behind normal on November 10. Harvest accelerated in the Mississippi Delta after midmonth, but progress remained behind normal in most areas, especially in Louisiana. Along the Atlantic Coastal Plain, harvest lagged far behind normal. On November 24, harvest was 97 percent complete, slightly less than the 5-year average of 98 percent. Winter wheat seeding was complete in most areas at the beginning of November, but rain hindered progress in many areas where sowing remained unfinished. Favorably dry weather supported a rapid acceleration of the planting pace in the interior Mississippi Delta near midmonth and along the Atlantic Coastal Plain after midmonth. However, seeding remained behind normal in both regions. Seeding continued with few delays in California, and was active in Oregon despite unfavorably dry soils. Nationally, 96 percent of the acreage was planted on November 24, slightly less than the 5-year average of 97 percent. Above-normal temperatures stimulated emergence and growth on the central and northern Great Plains and Pacific Northwest most of the month. However, moisture shortages limited the crop's response to the favorable warmth in many areas, especially on the High Plains. In the eastern Corn Belt, below normal temperatures slightly hampered vegetative growth, but topsoil moisture supplies were nearly ideal. After midmonth, light precipitation promoted germination of late-planted fields in the Pacific Northwest, and topsoil moisture was adequate to support germination in the lower Mississippi Valley. Ninety-one percent of the Nation's winter wheat was emerged by November 24, slightly more than the 90-percent average for this date. Heavy rainfall frequently halted cotton harvest in many areas of the South during November, especially through the first half of the month. The longest and most frequent interruptions were along the Gulf Coast and adjacent interior areas of the southern Great Plains and Mississippi Delta. In the interior Southeast, rain delays were frequent, but slightly shorter in duration in most areas. Along the Atlantic Coastal Plain, rain delays were shorter and less frequent, although precipitation was above normal across much of this region as well. By November 17, harvest was more than 2 weeks behind the 5-year average. However, significantly drier weather prevailed in most areas after midmonth, and picking rapidly accelerated. In the Southwest, picking neared completion well ahead of normal. On November 24, harvest was 77 percent complete, but remained well behind the 5-year average of 87 percent. Widespread precipitation limited sorghum harvest at the beginning of the month, especially on the southern Great Plains, where late crop ripening and muddy fields contributed to slow progress until midmonth. Early-month harvest was more active in the central and northern Great Plains, but progress lagged as much as 2 weeks behind normal in Kansas. Mostly dry weather supported an active harvest pace in the central and southern Great Plains after midmonth. Elsewhere, harvest neared completion in the Corn Belt and northern Great Plains. By November 24, harvest was 90 percent complete, about a week behind the 96-percent average for this date. The peanut harvest fell well behind last year's pace and the 5-year average due to early-month rain that sharply curtailed digging along the eastern Gulf Coast and southern Great Plains. Harvest fell nearly 2 weeks behind normal in Texas and approached completion slightly later than normal along the eastern Gulf Coast. Harvest rapidly accelerated in the southern Great Plains near midmonth, but wet weather hindered progress in the Southeast until after midmonth. By November 24, harvest was 95 percent complete, slightly behind the 5-year average of 96 percent. By November 10, the sugarbeet harvest was 98 percent complete in the four major sugarbeet-producing States, matching last year and the average for this date. Very dry weather supported a rapid early-month harvest pace in Michigan, and harvest rapidly approached completion in Idaho despite rain delays. Temperatures were cold enough to maintain the quality and sucrose content of piled beets most of the month, although afternoon temperatures were occasionally unfavorably warm, especially in the Red River Valley and northern High Plains. The sunflower harvest remained active in the central and northern Great Plains during most of the month, as mostly dry weather aided harvest in the four major sunflower-producing States. However, progress lagged behind normal in most areas throughout the month, and on November 24, harvest was 94 percent complete, compared with the 5-year average of 95 percent. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested area, at 12.6 million acres, is unchanged from the November estimate but 7 percent less than last year. American-Pima harvested area, at 241,400 acres, is also unchanged from November but down 10 percent from the 2001 harvested acres. In the Southeastern States, cotton picking progressed rapidly during the first half of November, but widespread, persistent rains virtually halted fieldwork in the middle of the month. However, harvest approached completion toward the end of the month as dry weather dominated the region. Objective yield data indicate below average number of bolls for Georgia and North Carolina. Georgia boll weights are high, but North Carolina boll weights are relatively low. The Delta Region cotton harvest continued to be delayed during the first half of November due to unrelenting downpours. Growers managed to make progress with the harvest during the drier, last half of the month. Objective yield data continue to show boll counts in Arkansas higher than average with weights below average. Mississippi's boll counts are surpassed only by the 1997 and 1998 counts. The average weight per boll in Mississippi is the highest of the previous 10 years. Louisiana's boll counts and weights are the highest since 1994. Heavy rains during the first half of November prevented Texas cotton growers from making significant harvest progress. Conditions improved later in the month and the pace of harvesting accelerated rapidly. Data from the Objective Yield survey show boll counts in Texas are the highest since 1997 and the average weight is the highest of the previous 10 years. Harvest of upland cotton in California and Arizona was nearing completion by the end of November as exceptional fall harvesting weather has prevailed. Data from the Objective Yield survey indicate California's count of bolls continues to rank as the highest of the last 10 years, but the weight per boll is the lowest. American-Pima production is forecast at 645,000 bales, up 2 percent from the November forecast but 8 percent lower than last year. The U.S. yield is forecast at a record high 1,283 pounds per harvested acre. If realized, this would be 29 pounds above the previous record established a year ago. California growers are expecting a record high yield of 1,332 pounds per harvested acre. All cotton ginned totaled 12,367,400 running bales prior to December 1, compared with 15,564,150 running bales ginned by the same date last year and 13,619,100 running bales ginned in 2000. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 4.06 million pounds for November, up 1 percent from last month but 6 percent below a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,155 acres, unchanged from October but 20 percent less than last November. Harvested area totaled 1,495 acres, unchanged from last month but 22 percent less than November 2001. November weather conditions were mostly favorable over major papaya production areas. Soil moisture was adequate in non-irrigated orchards. Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is forecast at 30.2 million cwt for 2002, up 9 percent from the October forecast and 54 percent above last year. This increase is a rebound from last year's drought reduced production in eastern and central States. Harvested area is forecast at 1.74 million acres, 3 percent above the last forecast and 39 percent above 2001. The average U.S. yield of 1,733 pounds per acre climbed 101 pounds above the October forecast and is 164 pounds greater than a year ago. Production is above a year ago in 10 of the 18 producing States. Most notable are a six-fold increase in Michigan after last year's drought and a 70 percent gain in North Dakota where planted acres are record high. Production is up from last year for all classes except garbanzo, blackeye, great northern, and small white. Navies are up 130 percent, pinto's climbed 49 percent, and blacks are almost quadrupled from last year. Small red, baby lima, cranberry, and pink are also up sharply. Production in North Dakota is forecast at 10.6 million cwt, 70 percent above 2001. The average yield, at 1,530 pounds per acre, is slightly below last year but harvested acres jumped 73 percent. Harvest was finished November 10, well behind normal, as wet weather and snow in October slowed progress. Production in Minnesota, at 2.48 million cwt, is up 57 percent from last year. In Michigan, production is forecast at 4.90 million cwt, 529 percent above last year's drought affected crop and 19 percent above 2000 output. The average yield was 1,850 pounds per acre, more than triple last year. Good weather during planting time combined with timely rains during the summer helped dry beans develop at a normal pace. Harvest finished in mid October. New York produced 333,000 cwt of dry beans this year, 72 percent above last season but 7 percent less than two years ago. Nebraska's production is forecast at 3.47 million cwt, up 9 percent from 2001 and 7 percent above two years ago. Average yield in Nebraska is forecast at 2,100 pounds per acre. Irrigated beans fared well during the hot, dry summer but production of non-irrigated beans was greatly reduced. Production in Colorado, at 1.79 million cwt, is equal to last year but down 10 percent from 2000. Dryland beans were hurt by the hot, dry weather and some irrigated fields were short of water. In Idaho, production is forecast at 1.86 million cwt, up 31 percent from last year and 8 percent above two years ago. Average yield, at 2,000 pounds per acre, is 50 pounds above the last two seasons. Harvest was completed in early October after a good season in southern Idaho. Garbanzos in the north struggled from lack of moisture. The Washington dry bean crop was 42 percent larger than last year with more acres and higher yields. Production in California is forecast at 1.81 million cwt, 21 percent above last year but 12 percent below two years ago. Harvest went well in California, with a few fields left to be harvested in December. Wyoming production is up 16 percent from last year with a good quality crop. The Texas production forecast is 9 percent below last season. Heat and drought conditions during the summer followed by heavy continuous rain in the fall adversely affected yields in Texas. Extremely dry weather hurt beans in New Mexico. Dry weather and heat ruined dryland beans in Utah leaving only irrigated fields for harvest. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2002-03 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.14 million tons, down 4 percent from the October 1 forecast and 12 percent less than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast is 40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons), 5 percent less than the October forecast. If realized, Florida's utilized production will be 14 percent below last season and the smallest since the 35.6 million boxes harvested in the 1989-90 freeze affected season. The forecast's for the white and colored grapefruit are each down 1 million boxes, respectively. The all white grapefruit forecast is 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), down 6 percent from October and 15 percent below last season. The colored grapefruit utilization is forecast at 24,000 boxes (1.02 million tons), 4 percent less than October and 14 percent less than last season. In Florida, fruit population is down 19 percent from last season. Average fruit size is large and is projected to be near the record high level at maturity. Fruit loss from droppage is expected to be slightly higher than last season. Forecast for Arizona, California, and Texas are carried forward from October. Tangelos: Florida's 2002-03 tangelo forecast is unchanged at 2.40 million boxes (108,000 tons). This is 12 percent more than last season's utilized production. Average fruit size is the second largest of the 10 season series and loss from droppage is expected to be below average, similar to the October 1 forecast. If the forecast is realized, it will be the largest crop of the past three seasons. Tangerines: The 2002-03 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 350,000 tons, unchanged from the October 1 forecast but down 17 percent from last season's utilization of 420,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop forecast is continued at 5.20 million boxes (247,000 tons), 21 percent lower than last year's utilization. Harvest of Fallglo tangerines is complete, while the Sunburst harvest is well underway. Both are considered early type varieties. Harvest of late type variety, Honey tangerines, has not yet begun. Average fruit size is slightly above the average but much smaller than the record large size of last season. Fruit loss from droppage is 4 percent below the 10 season average. Arizona and California forecasts are carried forward from the October 1 forecast. The 2002-03 Florida tangerine forecast only includes the Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey tangerines. It does not include the Robinson and Dancy varieties as in the previous seasons estimates. This program change was implemented because of the declassification of Robinson and Dancy tangerines by the Florida Citrus Commission. Temples: Florida's Temples are forecast at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2002-03 season, unchanged from October but 10 percent below last season. If realized, this forecast would equal the freeze affected 1989-90 crop as the second smallest on record. Average fruit size continues to be the largest in the 10 season series. Fruit per tree is down and droppage is projected to be near average at 10 percent. K-Early Citrus: K-Early citrus has been dropped from the citrus estimation program. This fruit type has been declassified by the Florida Citrus Commission and forecasts have ceased. Bearing acres had declined to 200 and production reached a record low of 30,000 boxes in the 2001-02 season. Florida Citrus: November temperatures ranged from the upper 30's to the 80's. Rainfall for the month occurred during a four or five day period during mid-November. Rainfall is slightly above average for the month. Virtually all of the well cared for groves are in very good to excellent condition. Little new growth is showing at this time due to the shorter days and cooler nights. The early and midseason fruit are well colored and need very little degreening to go to fresh markets. Harvesting crews were very active in November once all of the processors opened. Deliveries at the juice plants were averaging one million boxes of oranges per day. Fresh fruit packinghouses were very active shipping Navels, other early oranges, white and colored grapefruit, tangerines, and tangelos. Growers and caretakers have been winterizing their groves. Some heaters have been placed in the colder locations. A few resets are being dirt banked for cold protection. Some late season fruit are being sprayed for fresh use. Many harvested groves in the southern areas are being hedged and topped. Dead trees continue to be pushed out and burned. California Citrus: Pre-emergent herbicides were applied in some citrus groves. Rain slowed the Navel orange harvest for a few days in some locations during the middle of the month. Cooler nights and mornings continued to improve fruit color. Lemons, Satsuma mandarins, Oroblanco grapefruit hybrids, and Chandler pummelos were picked and hauled to citrus packinghouses. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Pruning, cultivating and spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Vine and tree removal and ground preparation for planting replacement was active in most districts. Table grape harvest continued in a few Red Globe and Crimson Seedless vineyards. Rainfall and fog slowed the harvest of table grapes. Plastic coverings were placed in some late variety vineyards to protect clusters from rain damage. Rain hastened the end of the pomegranate harvest, causing defects including rind cracking. Apple harvesting neared completion in eastern Kern County. Hayward kiwifruit and Hachiya and Fuyu variety persimmon picking continued. Strawberry harvesting continued in the Central Coast counties. In Fresno and Tulare counties, strawberries were picked and sold at roadside stands. The harvest of Zutano, Susan, and Mexicola Grande avocados progressed in Tulare County. Pecans: The December 1 forecast for 2002 pecan utilized production is 176 million pounds (in-shell basis), down 13 percent from the October 1 forecast and 48 percent below last year's crop. Wet conditions and tropical storms in the Southern States have combined with the alternate bearing cycle to sharply reduce crop size. Wet weather from September through November in these States delayed harvest. Improved varieties are expected to make up 137 million pounds or 78 percent of the total, while the native and seedling varieties make up the difference. The Georgia forecast, at 45.0 million pounds, is 10 percent below the October 1 forecast and 59 percent below last year's crop. Most of the decrease is related to the alternate bearing cycle. However, dry early-season conditions and wet weather during the fall further reduced production and quality by increasing diseases and delaying harvest. The Texas production forecast is 40.0 million pounds, 20 percent below the previous forecast and 47 percent below last year's production. Unseasonable rains during October and November reduced harvested production and quality. New Mexico's forecast, at 36.0 million pounds, is unchanged from October but down 40 percent from last year. Harvest is just getting underway. Production is lower due to the alternate bearing cycle as well as wind damage to limbs and nut clusters. Arizona forecasts a 14.0 million pound pecan crop, down 7 percent from October and 33 percent below last year. Harvest is just beginning and producers report the crop 'looks good'. Oklahoma's forecast of 14.0 million pounds is 22 percent below the October forecast and down 30 percent from last year's production. There are reports of reduced production in the tops of trees damaged by previous years ice storms. The Louisiana forecast of 6.00 million pounds is reduced 33 percent from the October forecast and down 57 percent from 2001. Many producers have struggled with black rot this year due to the extremely wet conditions over the last two months. Alabama pecan production, at 7.00 million pounds, is 30 percent below the October forecast and 53 percent below last year. Wet weather since October caused many nuts to rot. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 35.9 million tons, 1 percent above the November forecast and 4 percent above last year. This year's forecast production is less than 1 percent below the record high crop of 2000. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 1.03 million acres for sugar and seed during the 2002 crop year. This is fractionally higher than the previous month but nearly the same as last year's final harvested acres. Yield is forecast at 34.9 tons per acre, up 0.3 ton from the November 1 forecast and 1.3 tons above last year's estimate. Early month rain continued to hamper harvest in Louisiana where progress was well behind the 5-year average. Despite the muddy conditions, harvesting gained momentum after midmonth. Harvest progressed well in Florida and Hawaii. Coffee: Hawaii coffee production is estimated at 8.50 million pounds (parchment basis) for the 2002-03 season, up 6 percent from the previous crop year. Harvested acreage is estimated at 6,200 acres, down 2 percent from the 2001-02 season. Favorable weather conditions, especially in the Kona districts of Hawaii island benefitted flowering. Coffee harvesting is expected to be spread over a longer period compared to last season with improved quality and larger bean size. Combined production from the other islands is also expected to increase. Most of this increase in production will come from Kauai island, which is the only other island expected to show an increase. Maui, Molokai, and Oahu are all expected to harvest less this season. Reliability of December 1 Crop Production Forecast Survey Procedures: Objective Yield Surveys were conducted between November 25 and December 1 to gather information on expected yields as of December 1. The Objective Yield Survey for cotton was conducted in producing States that usually account for approximately 75 percent of the U.S. production. At crop maturity, the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The Objective Yield Survey for oranges for the December 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield estimates for cotton and State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. For cotton, reports from cotton ginners in each State were also considered. For oranges, reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were used for setting estimates. The December 1 orange production forecasts for these three States are carried forward from October. Each cotton State Statistical Office and Florida, for oranges, submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published December 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. For cotton, a new estimate will be made in January followed by end-of-season revisions in May. Administrative records are reviewed and revisions are made, if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made, if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate. For oranges, the December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 cotton production forecast is 1.8 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current cotton production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 1.8 percent. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.0 percent. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 orange production forecast is 11.0 percent. However, if you exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.3 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 11.0 percent or 4.3 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 18.9 percent or 7.7 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the December 1 cotton forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 214,000 bales, ranging from 26,000 to 479,000 bales. The December 1 forecast for cotton has been below the final estimate 10 times and above 10 times. Changes between the December 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 596,000 tons (350,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 1,000 tons to 2.39 million tons (1,000 tons to 752,000 tons, excluding freezes). The December 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 7 times and above 8 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the December 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats (202) 690-3234 Roy Karkosh - Barley, Sorghum, Sugar Crops (202) 720-8140 Mark E. Miller - Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250 Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on January 10, 2003. 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