Cr Pr 2-2 (1-03) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 10, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Down 1 Percent from December The U.S. all orange January forecast for the 2002-03 crop is 11.2 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and 10 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast remains unchanged at 197 million boxes (8.87 million tons), 14 percent less than the previous season. Abundant rainfall occurred across the State with some areas receiving excessive amounts. Colder temperatures were more prevalent than normal. The early and midseason varieties forecast remains unchanged at 113 million boxes (5.09 million tons) but 12 percent below last season. Fruit continued to grow in size. However, droppage is at the second highest level in the current 10-year series. Row count surveys indicate over 52 percent of fruit harvested, the highest rate of the previous ten seasons. Florida's Valencia forecast is unchanged at 84.0 million boxes (3.78 million tons) but is 18 percent below last season. Fruit size continues to increase at an above average rate. Droppage continues at above average levels. The all orange forecast for California, at 61.0 million boxes (2.29 million tons), is 3 percent less than the October 1 forecast but 9 percent higher than last season. Recent rains slowed harvesting of California Navel oranges but enhanced fruit size. Overall fruit quality is good. The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.68 million boxes (72,000 tons), is up 6 percent from the October 1 forecast but 3 percent less than last season's final utilization. Harvest is underway and fruit quality and size are reported as excellent. Arizona's all orange utilization is forecast at 450,000 boxes (17,000 tons), unchanged from the October 1 forecast but 13 percent lower than the previous season. If realized, it will be the sixth consecutive season of declining utilization. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2002-03 season is forecast at 1.57 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is unchanged from last month's projection. The early and midseason portion is projected at 1.52 gallons per box and the late season Valencia oranges at 1.67 gallons. These projections are very similar to last season's final estimates. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on January 10, 2003. Acting Secretary of Agriculture James R. Moseley Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Hay Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 U.S. Weather Maps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :---------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Acres ------ --- Cwt --- ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : Winter : CA : 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 270 270 2,790 2,430 2,430 FL : 6.8 6.6 6.7 6.5 265 265 1,325 1,776 1,723 : Total : 15.8 15.6 15.7 15.5 268 268 4,115 4,206 4,153 : Spring 1/ : AZ : 7.8 7.8 270 2,214 2,106 CA : 19.0 19.0 405 6,045 7,695 FL : 27.0 26.3 300 7,970 7,883 Hastings: 19.5 19.0 315 5,940 5,985 Other FL: 7.5 7.3 260 2,030 1,898 NC : 21.5 21.0 170 3,515 3,570 TX : 12.5 12.0 170 2,070 2,040 : Total : 87.8 86.1 271 21,814 23,294 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Nov : 2,710 2,155 1,920 1,495 4,330 4,055 Dec : 2,575 2,075 1,825 1,495 3,225 3,685 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2000-2001, 2001-2002 and Forecasted January 1, 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2000-01 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2000-01 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 480 270 200 18 10 8 CA : 35,500 34,000 40,000 1,331 1,275 1,500 FL : 128,000 128,000 113,000 5,760 5,760 5,085 TX : 2,000 1,530 1,500 85 65 64 US : 165,980 163,800 154,700 7,194 7,110 6,657 Valencia : AZ : 420 250 250 16 9 9 CA : 19,000 22,000 21,000 713 825 788 FL : 95,300 102,000 84,000 4,288 4,590 3,780 TX : 235 210 180 10 9 8 US : 114,955 124,460 105,430 5,027 5,433 4,585 All : AZ : 900 520 450 34 19 17 CA : 54,500 56,000 61,000 2,044 2,100 2,288 FL : 223,300 230,000 197,000 10,048 10,350 8,865 TX : 2,235 1,740 1,680 95 74 72 US : 280,935 288,260 260,130 12,221 12,543 11,242 Temples : FL : 1,250 1,550 1,400 56 70 63 Grapefruit : White Seedless 4/ : FL : 18,700 18,900 16,000 795 803 680 Colored Seedless : FL : 27,300 27,800 24,000 1,160 1,182 1,020 All : AZ : 250 160 100 8 5 3 CA : 6,300 6,000 5,600 211 201 188 FL : 46,000 46,700 40,000 1,955 1,985 1,700 TX : 7,200 5,900 5,600 288 236 224 US : 59,750 58,760 51,300 2,462 2,427 2,115 Tangerines : AZ 5/ : 650 620 450 24 23 17 CA 5/ : 2,200 2,200 2,500 83 83 94 FL 6/ : 5,600 6,600 5,100 266 314 242 US : 8,450 9,420 8,050 373 420 353 Lemons : AZ : 3,600 2,800 2,800 137 106 106 CA : 22,600 19,000 23,000 859 722 874 US : 26,200 21,800 25,800 996 828 980 Tangelos : FL : 2,100 2,150 2,400 95 97 108 K-Early Citrus 7/ : FL : 40 30 2 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Includes seedy. 5/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 6/ 2000-01 through 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey varieties only. 7/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States, December 1 and May 1, 2000-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dec 1 : May 1 State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : AL : 1,000 2,100 1,700 100 650 AZ : 250 223 203 33 28 AR : 2,150 2,280 3,000 270 280 CA : 1,954 1,961 2,235 180 232 CO : 1,770 1,990 1,560 286 535 CT : 82 59 61 21 9 DE : 29 16 10 4 5 FL : 450 510 475 25 90 GA : 950 1,599 1,464 190 350 ID : 2,857 2,568 2,972 265 444 IL : 1,700 1,600 1,400 340 355 IN : 1,629 1,311 1,021 342 287 IA : 4,500 4,300 3,900 700 1,050 KS : 4,500 5,600 4,800 500 1,040 KY : 5,316 4,214 4,085 1,439 943 LA : 415 1,096 709 30 200 ME : 145 137 140 40 25 MD : 525 355 264 61 62 MA : 108 105 90 30 31 MI : 3,460 3,450 2,109 1,000 811 MN : 4,446 4,213 4,759 960 680 MS : 850 1,833 1,631 45 390 MO : 5,392 6,989 6,350 799 1,021 MT : 3,168 3,600 4,019 427 845 NE : 3,500 4,800 3,400 500 1,280 NV : 801 776 881 112 111 NH : 66 50 48 14 9 NJ : 156 90 55 47 15 NM : 600 600 620 75 65 NY : 2,280 2,250 2,236 625 600 NC : 1,300 1,215 785 277 158 ND : 5,212 5,020 4,300 1,120 1,050 OH : 3,390 3,591 1,832 835 551 OK : 3,700 3,300 4,500 450 500 OR : 1,766 1,901 2,550 241 183 PA : 2,800 2,100 2,200 1,200 550 RI : 11 8 9 2 2 SC : 518 448 400 100 110 SD : 8,200 8,235 5,800 1,550 1,900 TN : 3,405 4,140 3,566 804 809 TX : 7,104 7,477 10,803 1,450 1,625 UT : 1,150 1,470 1,200 200 210 VT : 280 288 281 70 87 VA : 2,900 2,384 1,929 745 411 WA : 1,303 1,513 1,620 195 170 WV : 1,144 939 934 276 205 WI : 4,800 4,300 3,600 1,980 1,350 WY : 1,550 1,506 1,250 151 180 : US : 105,582 110,510 103,756 21,106 22,494 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,073.0 4,135.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 79,054.0 69,313.0 Corn for Silage : 7,490.0 Hay, All : 64,497.0 Alfalfa : 23,135.0 All Other : 41,362.0 Oats : 5,005.0 2,098.0 Proso Millet : 450.0 220.0 Rice : 3,240.0 3,207.0 Rye : 1,395.0 286.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,580.0 7,299.0 Sorghum for Silage : 352.0 Wheat, All : 60,358.0 45,817.0 Winter : 41,735.0 44,246.0 29,651.0 Durum : 2,909.0 2,703.0 Other Spring : 15,714.0 13,463.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,459.0 1,275.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 785.0 704.0 Mustard Seed : 191.0 175.0 Peanuts : 1,358.0 1,296.7 Rapeseed : 3.4 3.1 Safflower : 219.0 196.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,758.0 72,160.0 Sunflowers : 2,585.0 2,205.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,962.6 12,413.3 Upland : 13,719.0 12,171.0 Amer-Pima : 243.6 242.3 Sugarbeets : 1,427.9 1,361.0 Sugarcane : 1,026.1 Tobacco : 430.3 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 21.5 11.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,922.1 1,726.9 Dry Edible Peas : 302.7 279.7 Lentils : 221.0 209.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.2 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.3 Hops : 29.3 Peppermint Oil : 80.2 Potatoes, All : 1,310.8 1,276.5 Winter : 15.8 15.6 15.7 15.5 Spring : 87.8 86.1 Summer : 63.0 59.9 Fall : 1,144.2 1,114.8 Spearmint Oil : 18.0 Sweet Potatoes : 97.2 83.3 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 54.9 226,873 Corn for Grain : " : 130.0 9,007,659 Corn for Silage : Ton : 14.0 104,979 Hay, All : " : 2.34 150,962 Alfalfa : " : 3.19 73,824 All Other : " : 1.86 77,138 Oats : Bu : 56.8 119,132 Proso Millet : " : 12.5 2,755 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,578 210,960 Rye : Bu : 24.4 6,985 Sorghum for Grain : " : 50.7 369,758 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 9.5 3,360 Wheat, All : Bu : 35.3 1,616,441 Winter : " : 38.5 1,142,802 Durum : " : 29.4 79,450 Other Spring : " : 29.3 394,189 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,218 1,552,520 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,419.3 Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 12,569 Mustard Seed : Lb : 705 123,450 Peanuts : " : 2,561 3,320,490 Rapeseed : " : 1,461 4,530 Safflower : " : 1,520 297,980 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 37.8 2,729,709 Sunflower : Lb : 1,133 2,497,236 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 663 17,145.0 Upland 2/ : " : 651 16,496.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,286 649.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.2 27,550 Sugarcane : " : 35.0 35,932 Tobacco : Lb : 2,068 889,632 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,414 164 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,736 29,974 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,517 4,242 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,200 2,508 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 457 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,370 8,500 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 45,000 14,400 Hops : " : 1,990 58,336.6 Peppermint Oil : " : 85 6,818 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 363 463,214 Winter : " : 268 268 4,206 4,153 Spring : " : 271 23,294 Summer : " : 309 18,486 Fall : " : 374 417,228 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 108 1,942 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 150 12,498 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,462 2,427 2,115 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/: " : 2 1 Lemons : " : 996 828 980 Oranges : " : 12,221 12,543 11,242 Tangelos (FL) : " : 95 97 108 Tangerines : " : 373 420 353 Temples (FL) : " : 56 70 63 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 9,629.1 8,910.6 Apricots : Ton : 82.5 89.7 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 28,000.0 Grapes : Ton : 6,552.5 7,269.3 Olives (CA) : " : 134.0 90.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 55,000.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,441.4 2,531.7 Pears : Ton : 1,005.8 944.6 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 150.0 155.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 21.2 15.2 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 830,000 980,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 49.5 18.0 Pecans : Lb : 338,500 175,700 Pistachios (CA) : " : 161,000 280,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 305.0 275.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,049 1,356 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,052,990 1,673,390 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,992,360 28,050,280 Corn for Silage : 3,031,130 Hay, All 3/ : 26,101,290 Alfalfa : 9,362,500 All Other : 16,738,790 Oats : 2,025,470 849,040 Proso Millet : 182,110 89,030 Rice : 1,311,200 1,297,840 Rye : 564,540 115,740 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,876,930 2,953,830 Sorghum for Silage : 142,450 Wheat, All 3/ :24,426,280 18,541,680 Winter :16,889,740 17,905,910 11,999,460 Durum : 1,177,240 1,093,880 Other Spring : 6,359,300 5,448,340 : Oilseeds : Canola : 590,440 515,980 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 317,680 284,900 Mustard Seed : 77,300 70,820 Peanuts : 549,570 524,760 Rapeseed : 1,380 1,250 Safflower : 88,630 79,320 Soybeans for Beans :29,849,130 29,202,430 Sunflowers : 1,046,120 892,340 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,650,520 5,023,540 Upland : 5,551,940 4,925,480 Amer-Pima : 98,580 98,060 Sugarbeets : 577,860 550,780 Sugarcane : 415,250 Tobacco : 174,130 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,700 4,690 Dry Edible Beans : 777,850 698,860 Dry Edible Peas : 122,500 113,190 Lentils : 89,440 84,580 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,510 Ginger Root (HI) : 130 Hops : 11,860 Peppermint Oil : 32,460 Potatoes, All 3/ : 530,470 516,590 Winter : 6,390 6,310 6,350 6,270 Spring : 35,530 34,840 Summer : 25,500 24,240 Fall : 463,050 451,150 Spearmint Oil : 7,280 Sweet Potatoes : 39,340 33,710 Taro (HI) 4/ : 170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2.95 4,939,580 Corn for Grain : 8.16 228,805,080 Corn for Silage : 31.42 95,235,350 Hay, All 2/ : 5.25 136,950,420 Alfalfa : 7.15 66,972,010 All Other : 4.18 69,978,420 Oats : 2.04 1,729,200 Proso Millet : 0.70 62,480 Rice : 7.37 9,568,990 Rye : 1.53 177,430 Sorghum for Grain : 3.18 9,392,290 Sorghum for Silage : 21.40 3,048,140 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.37 43,992,310 Winter : 2.59 31,101,970 Durum : 1.98 2,162,270 Other Spring : 1.97 10,728,070 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.36 704,210 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,823,490 Flaxseed : 1.12 319,270 Mustard Seed : 0.79 56,000 Peanuts : 2.87 1,506,150 Rapeseed : 1.64 2,050 Safflower : 1.70 135,160 Soybeans for Beans : 2.54 74,290,500 Sunflowers : 1.27 1,132,730 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.74 3,732,880 Upland : 0.73 3,591,580 Amer-Pima : 1.44 141,300 Sugarbeets : 45.38 24,992,940 Sugarcane : 78.50 32,596,960 Tobacco : 2.32 403,530 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.58 7,440 Dry Edible Beans : 1.95 1,359,600 Dry Edible Peas : 1.70 192,410 Lentils : 1.35 113,760 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 20,730 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.54 3,860 Ginger Root (HI) : 50.44 6,530 Hops : 2.23 26,460 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,090 Potatoes, All 2/ : 40.67 21,011,030 Winter : 30.03 30.03 190,780 188,380 Spring : 30.32 1,056,600 Summer : 34.59 838,510 Fall : 41.95 18,925,140 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 880 Sweet Potatoes : 16.82 566,900 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,770 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,233,490 2,201,740 1,918,700 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/ : 1,810 910 Lemons : 903,560 751,150 889,040 Oranges : 11,086,700 11,378,820 10,198,570 Tangelos (FL) : 86,180 88,000 97,980 Tangerines : 338,380 381,020 320,240 Temples (FL) : 50,800 63,500 57,150 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,367,690 4,041,780 Apricots : 74,810 81,370 Bananas (HI) : 12,700 Grapes : 5,944,350 6,594,600 Olives (CA) : 121,560 81,650 Papayas (HI) : 24,950 Peaches : 1,107,400 1,148,360 Pears : 912,460 856,880 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 136,080 140,610 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 19,230 13,790 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 376,480 444,520 Hazelnuts : 44,910 16,330 Pecans : 153,540 79,700 Pistachios (CA) : 73,030 127,010 Walnuts (CA) : 276,690 249,480 Maple Syrup : 5,240 6,780 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. December Weather Summary An El Ni¤o-driven weather pattern featured heavy precipitation in the West Coast States and across the South, but mild, mostly dry weather from the northern half of the Plains to the upper Great Lakes region. Although precipitation aided winter grains and boosted high-elevation snow packs across northern California and the Northwest, mostly dry weather persisted in drought-affected areas from the Southwest to the central Rockies. Meanwhile, mild weather on the Plains benefited the dormant winter wheat crop. Rain and snow boosted soil moisture reserves on the southern Plains, but dry weather depleted soil moisture and left wheat exposed to potential weather extremes on the northern and central High Plains. In the Corn Belt, mild, dry weather favored off-season fieldwork across the upper Midwest, while rain and snow replenished soil moisture from the Ohio Valley to the lower Great Lakes region. Persistent rains across the South caused fieldwork delays, triggered lowland flooding, and left some winter grains in standing water. Meanwhile, rain and snow eradicated lingering long-term drought in the Atlantic Coast States. Below-normal temperatures were confined to the South and East, where readings averaged as much as 5 degrees F below normal. In contrast, warmer-than-normal weather prevailed from the Northwest to the upper Midwest, boosting temperatures as much as 10 degrees F above normal. Little or no moisture accompanied the mild weather across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, but at least 8 to 12 inches of precipitation soaked many locations in northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the central part of Florida's peninsula, and areas from eastern Texas to the southern Appalachians. December Crop Summary A stormy weather pattern developed in the Pacific Northwest, delivering frequent rain to low-lying coastal areas and significant snowfall to coastal mountain ranges. Precipitation was much lighter in the mountains and valleys of the interior Pacific Northwest, but precipitation was above-normal in many areas and well above-normal in some areas. The wet weather pattern eliminated drought conditions along the coast and significantly reduced moisture shortages along the foothills of the coastal ranges. In the interior valleys, topsoil and subsoil moisture supplies improved, but long-term moisture deficits remained moderate to severe. The storms bypassed the northern and central Great Plains, leaving little moisture for parched soils and virtually no snow to protect winter wheat fields from potentially damaging cold temperatures. However, strong root development and abnormally warm weather reduced the threat of heaving and winter kill, despite the lack of a protective layer of snow. Storms repeatedly redeveloped over the southern Great Plains and spread a variety of severe weather north and eastward across the Mississippi Delta, Ohio Valley, Southeast, and Atlantic Coast States. One early-month storm produced a mixture of wintery precipitation that limited fieldwork and delayed cotton harvest in the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Above-normal temperatures and precipitation produced vigorous winter wheat growth and supplied adequate forage for livestock in Texas. The Southeast received frequent, widespread precipitation, but heavy rainfall was scattered and harvest and fieldwork delays were usually brief. In Florida, rain interrupted vegetable planting and picking and reduced the quality of some crops. Heavy rain also saturated citrus groves, forcing producers with bedded trees to pump excessive water from their groves. Wet weather also frequently interrupted field and orchard work in California's central and northern valleys, but the moisture, combined with above-normal temperatures, contributed to vigorous crop growth. In addition, heavy snow boosted irrigation reserves in the Sierra Mountains. Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation prevailed in the Corn Belt. Soil moisture supplies were adequate, however, and afternoon temperatures were warm enough to support vegetative growth and root development of winter wheat in the eastern Corn Belt early in the month. However, above-ground growth was mostly undetectable. Winter Potatoes: Production for 2003 is forecast at 4.15 million cwt, down 1 percent from a year ago but 1 percent above 2001. Harvested acreage in the two winter potato States (California and Florida) is estimated at 15,500 acres, down 1 percent from 2002, while the average yield is forecast at 268 cwt per acre, the same as last year. Harvest is underway in California's Kern County and will move south as the season progresses. In Florida, fall rains slowed some planting but most fields were planted on schedule. Spring Potatoes: Production for 2002 is revised to 23.3 million cwt, up 7 percent from both the May forecast and last year. Harvested area totaled 86,100 acres, up 13 percent from last year, while the average yield of 271 cwt per acre decreased 15 cwt from a year ago. Spring potato production in California jumped 27 percent from a year ago to 7.70 million cwt on the strength of increased acreage and higher average yield. North Carolina's crop of 3.57 million cwt gained 2 percent from 2001. Florida and Texas are each down 1 percent and Arizona's potato production is 5 percent below a year ago. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.69 million pounds for December, down 9 percent from last month but 14 percent above last year. Area in crop totaled 2,075 acres, down 4 percent from November and 19 percent below last December. Harvested area totaled 1,495 acres, unchanged from last month but 18 percent less than December 2001. December weather conditions were mostly favorable over major papaya production areas. Soil moisture was adequate in non-irrigated orchards. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2002-03 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.12 million tons, down 1 percent from the December 1 forecast and 13 percent less than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons). If realized, Florida's utilized production will be 14 percent below last season and the smallest since the 35.6 million boxes harvested in the 1989-90 freeze affected season. The all white grapefruit forecast is 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), 15 percent below last season. The colored grapefruit utilization is forecast at 24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), 14 percent less than the previous season. Compared to the previous 10 season series, this year's fruit size is exceeded only by the extremely large sizes in the 1995-96 season. Droppage is slightly less than the 10-year season average. Grapefruit production in Texas is unchanged from the October 1 forecast of 5.60 million boxes (224,000 tons) but is down 5 percent from last season's utilized production. Harvest is underway. Fruit quality and size are reported as excellent. California's grapefruit production is forecast at 5.60 million boxes (188,000 tons), 10 percent lower than the October 1 forecast and down 7 percent from last season. Harvest is underway and the crop is reported in good condition. The Arizona grapefruit forecast remains at 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons), 37 percent less than last season's utilization. Harvest is underway with large fruit sizes and fair quality being reported. Lemons: The 2002-03 U.S. lemon crop is 980,000 tons, up 18 percent from last season. California production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes (874,000 tons), 21 percent above the 2001-02 season. Harvest is underway in all areas of the State. Fruit quality is good. The 2002-03 Arizona lemon forecast is 2.80 million boxes (106,000 tons), unchanged from both the previous forecast and last season. Harvest is just underway. Quality is mostly good but some wind-scarring has occurred. Average fruit size is larger than last season. Tangelos: Florida's 2002-03 tangelo forecast is unchanged at 2.40 million boxes (108,000 tons). This is 12 percent more than last season's utilized production. Average fruit size is the second largest of the 10 season series and loss from droppage is expected to be below average, similar to the December 1 forecast. If the forecast is realized, it will be the largest crop of the past three seasons. Tangerines: The 2002-03 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 353,000 tons, up 1 percent from the December 1 forecast but down 16 percent from last season's utilization of 420,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop forecast, at 5.10 million boxes (242,000 tons), is down 2 percent from last month and 23 percent lower than last season's utilization. Harvest of Fallglo and Sunburst tangerines is almost complete. Harvest of Honey tangerines has just begun. Fruit size is above the 10-season average but much smaller than the record large size of last season. The 2002-03 Florida tangerine forecast only includes the Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey tangerines. It does not include the Robinson and Dancy varieties as in previous seasons. This program change was implemented because of the declassification of Robinson and Dancy tangerines by the Florida Citrus Commission. California's tangerine forecast is 2.50 million boxes (94,000 tons), up 9 percent from the October 1 forecast and 14 percent above last season's utilization. There are no reports of any major problems. Shape is normal and fruit quality was reported as very good. Arizona's tangerine forecast remains unchanged at 450,000 boxes (17,000 tons) but is 27 percent below last season's utilized production. Harvest is off to a good start. Temples: Florida's Temples are forecast at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2002-03 season, unchanged from December but 10 percent below last season. If realized, this forecast would equal the freeze affected 1989-90 crop as the second smallest on record. Average fruit size continues to be the largest in the 10 season series. Fruit per tree is down and droppage is projected to be slightly above average. K-Early Citrus: K-Early citrus has been dropped from the citrus estimation program. This fruit type has been declassified by the Florida Citrus Commission and forecasts have ceased. Florida Citrus: December was a very wet and cold month in Florida. Rainfall averaged two to four times the normal rate. Caretakers were busy discing and deep plowing grove middles to help drain excess water away from tree root systems. Pumps were also utilized to drain ditches and canals away from groves. Low temperatures were in the mid to upper 30's during early December. During the latter part of the month, low temperatures were in the 40's. There was no damage to citrus trees or fruit. Fresh fruit harvesting crews were very busy on dry days picking citrus for the Christmas markets and for fund raising projects. Virtually all of the processors were busy trying to process the field run fruit on the same day delivered. Caretakers were mowing and chopping cover crops for fire prevention. Dead trees continue to be removed and burned. A few resets were planted in the southern districts. Some spraying was applied to late season crops. Texas Citrus: Harvest is underway for most citrus. Frequent rains in the last several months have helped production but did slow harvest on occasion. Fruit quality and size have been excellent this season. California Citrus: Picking of navel oranges continued throughout December. Rainfall and cool night temperatures helped increase fruit size and enhance exterior color and maturity. Pummelo and Oroblanco grapefruit harvests were active in the desert. Picking of lemons was active in the desert, central valley, and south coast areas. Harvest of Satsuma, Mineola, and Fairchild tangerines was active during December. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities such as pruning, grafting, brush shredding, cultivating, and dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Some older variety trees and vines have been removed in preparation for planting replacements. Strong winds and rain during the middle of December contributed to some fruit and nut tree loss in parts of the State. Late picking of Crimson and Emperor table grapes neared completion in the southern areas of the State by the middle of December. Warm, dry weather allowed a few strawberry growers in Fresno and Tulare counties to continue harvesting for local roadside stand sales. Olives were harvested for oil production. Blueberry plantings showed vigorous growth. Fuya and Hachiya persimmons were picked. Walnut orchards were treated for weed control. Almond stockpile hulling was completed by month's end. Hay Stocks on Farms: Stocks of all hay stored on farms totaled 104 million tons on December 1, 2002, down 6 percent from the previous year. Disappearance of hay from May 2002 - December 2002 totaled 69.7 million tons, compared to 25.1 million tons for the same period a year ago. Disappearance is up from last year, due to dry spring and summer conditions limiting pasture and extending the hay feeding period in the nothern and central Great Plains, Southeast, and Rocky Mountain States. Thirty-three of the 48 reporting States had lower hay stocks than last year. Most of the States reporting a decrease in stocks compared to last year were located in the western Corn Belt, central Rocky Mountains, northern and central Great Plains, and the Southeast. Stocks were significantly higher in Oklahoma and Texas, mainly due to a sharp increase in production during 2002. Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 6.0 percent. However, if you exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.3 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 6.0 percent, or 4.3 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 10.4 percent, or 7.5 percent excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 419,000 tons (371,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 16,000 tons to 1.13 million tons (16,000 tons to 739,000 tons, excluding freezes). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 4 times and above 11 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats (202) 690-3234 Roy Karkosh - Barley, Sorghum, Sugar Crops (202) 720-8140 Mark E. Miller - Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250 Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on February 11, 2003. 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