Cr Pr 2-2 (2-03) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 11, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Up 1 Percent from January The U.S. all orange February 1 forecast for the 2002-03 crop is 11.3 million tons, up 1 percent from the January 1 forecast but 10 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is increased to 199 million boxes (8.96 million tons), 1 percent above the January 1 forecast but 13 percent below the previous season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 113 million boxes (5.09 million tons), unchanged from last month but 12 percent below last season. Harvest is over 80 percent complete. Florida's Valencia forecast is 86.0 million boxes (3.87 million tons), up 2 percent from the previous forecast but 16 percent below the previous season. Despite the cold weather, fruit size measurements indicate that the fruit continues to grow and are the largest in the fruit measurement series dating back to 1960. The larger fruit size more than offset above average droppage resulting in an increased amount of fruit available for harvest. Temperatures in January were generally colder than normal in the citrus production areas, but the below freezing temperatures experienced in late January did not adversely affect the 2002-03 citrus crop. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2002-03 season is forecast at 1.57 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is unchanged from last month's projection. The early and midseason portion is projected at 1.50 gallons per box, down from 1.52 in January. The Valencia portion remains unchanged at 1.67 gallons. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on February 11, 2003. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Rodney J. Brown Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Sugarcane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2001-2002 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 445.0 442.0 35.1 38.2 15,620 16,884 HI 2/ : 19.3 23.6 97.3 94.3 1,878 2,225 LA 2/ : 460.0 465.0 29.0 29.0 13,340 13,485 TX 2/ : 46.0 43.8 42.1 37.7 1,937 1,651 : US : 970.3 974.4 33.8 35.1 32,775 34,245 : For Seed : FL : 20.0 19.0 35.9 38.0 718 722 HI 2/ : 1.5 1.5 36.2 39.1 54 59 LA 2/ : 35.0 30.0 29.0 29.0 1,015 870 TX 2/ : 1.0 1.2 25.0 30.0 25 36 : US : 57.5 51.7 31.5 32.6 1,812 1,687 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 465.0 461.0 35.1 38.2 16,338 17,606 HI 2/ : 20.8 25.1 92.9 91.0 1,932 2,284 LA 2/ : 495.0 495.0 29.0 29.0 14,355 14,355 TX 2/ : 47.0 45.0 41.7 37.5 1,962 1,687 : US : 1,027.8 1,026.1 33.7 35.0 34,587 35,932 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the 2002 Crop Production Summary. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Dec : 2,075 1,495 3,685 Jan : 2,575 2,080 1,830 1,505 3,345 3,865 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2000-2001, 2001-2002 and Forecasted February 1, 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2000-01 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2000-01 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 480 270 200 18 10 8 CA 4/ : 35,500 34,000 40,000 1,331 1,275 1,500 FL : 128,000 128,000 113,000 5,760 5,760 5,085 TX 4/ : 2,000 1,530 1,500 85 65 64 US : 165,980 163,800 154,700 7,194 7,110 6,657 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 420 250 250 16 9 9 CA 4/ : 19,000 22,000 21,000 713 825 788 FL : 95,300 102,000 86,000 4,288 4,590 3,870 TX 4/ : 235 210 180 10 9 8 US : 114,955 124,460 107,430 5,027 5,433 4,675 All : AZ 4/ : 900 520 450 34 19 17 CA 4/ : 54,500 56,000 61,000 2,044 2,100 2,288 FL : 223,300 230,000 199,000 10,048 10,350 8,955 TX 4/ : 2,235 1,740 1,680 95 74 72 US : 280,935 288,260 262,130 12,221 12,543 11,332 Temples : FL : 1,250 1,550 1,400 56 70 63 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 18,700 18,900 16,000 795 803 680 Colored Seedless : FL : 27,300 27,800 24,000 1,160 1,182 1,020 All : AZ 4/ : 250 160 100 8 5 3 CA 4/ : 6,300 6,000 5,600 211 201 188 FL : 46,000 46,700 40,000 1,955 1,985 1,700 TX 4/ : 7,200 5,900 5,600 288 236 224 US : 59,750 58,760 51,300 2,462 2,427 2,115 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 650 620 450 24 23 17 CA 4/ 6/ : 2,200 2,200 2,500 83 83 94 FL 7/ : 5,600 6,600 5,000 266 314 238 US : 8,450 9,420 7,950 373 420 349 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,600 2,800 2,800 137 106 106 CA : 22,600 19,000 23,000 859 722 874 US : 26,200 21,800 25,800 996 828 980 Tangelos : FL : 2,100 2,150 2,400 95 97 108 K-Early Citrus 8/ : FL : 40 30 2 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5/ Includes seedy. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 7/ 2000-01 through 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey varieties only. 8/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,073.0 4,135.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 79,054.0 69,313.0 Corn for Silage : 7,490.0 Hay, All : 64,497.0 Alfalfa : 23,135.0 All Other : 41,362.0 Oats : 5,005.0 2,098.0 Proso Millet : 450.0 220.0 Rice : 3,240.0 3,207.0 Rye : 1,395.0 286.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,580.0 7,299.0 Sorghum for Silage : 352.0 Wheat, All : 60,358.0 45,817.0 Winter : 41,735.0 44,246.0 29,651.0 Durum : 2,909.0 2,703.0 Other Spring : 15,714.0 13,463.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,459.0 1,275.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 785.0 704.0 Mustard Seed : 191.0 175.0 Peanuts : 1,358.0 1,296.7 Rapeseed : 3.4 3.1 Safflower : 219.0 196.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,758.0 72,160.0 Sunflowers : 2,585.0 2,205.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,962.6 12,413.3 Upland : 13,719.0 12,171.0 Amer-Pima : 243.6 242.3 Sugarbeets : 1,427.9 1,361.0 Sugarcane : 1,026.1 Tobacco : 430.3 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 21.5 11.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,922.1 1,726.9 Dry Edible Peas : 302.7 279.7 Lentils : 221.0 209.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.2 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.3 Hops : 29.3 Peppermint Oil : 80.2 Potatoes, All : 1,310.8 1,276.5 Winter : 15.8 15.6 15.7 15.5 Spring : 87.8 86.1 Summer : 63.0 59.9 Fall : 1,144.2 1,114.8 Spearmint Oil : 18.0 Sweet Potatoes : 97.2 83.3 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 54.9 226,873 Corn for Grain : " : 130.0 9,007,659 Corn for Silage : Ton : 14.0 104,979 Hay, All : " : 2.34 150,962 Alfalfa : " : 3.19 73,824 All Other : " : 1.86 77,138 Oats : Bu : 56.8 119,132 Proso Millet : " : 12.5 2,755 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,578 210,960 Rye : Bu : 24.4 6,985 Sorghum for Grain : " : 50.7 369,758 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 9.5 3,360 Wheat, All : Bu : 35.3 1,616,441 Winter : " : 38.5 1,142,802 Durum : " : 29.4 79,450 Other Spring : " : 29.3 394,189 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,218 1,552,520 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,419.3 Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 12,569 Mustard Seed : Lb : 705 123,450 Peanuts : " : 2,561 3,320,490 Rapeseed : " : 1,461 4,530 Safflower : " : 1,520 297,980 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 37.8 2,729,709 Sunflower : Lb : 1,133 2,497,236 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 663 17,145.0 Upland 2/ : " : 651 16,496.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,286 649.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.2 27,550 Sugarcane : " : 35.0 35,932 Tobacco : Lb : 2,068 889,632 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,414 164 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,736 29,974 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,517 4,242 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,200 2,508 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 457 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,370 8,500 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 45,000 14,400 Hops : " : 1,990 58,336.6 Peppermint Oil : " : 85 6,818 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 363 463,214 Winter : " : 268 268 4,206 4,153 Spring : " : 271 23,294 Summer : " : 309 18,486 Fall : " : 374 417,228 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 108 1,942 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 150 12,498 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,462 2,427 2,115 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/: " : 2 1 Lemons : " : 996 828 980 Oranges : " : 12,221 12,543 11,332 Tangelos (FL) : " : 95 97 108 Tangerines : " : 373 420 349 Temples (FL) : " : 56 70 63 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 9,428.7 8,592.1 Apricots : Ton : 82.5 90.1 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 28,000.0 19,000.0 Grapes : Ton : 6,569.6 7,144.0 Olives (CA) : " : 134.0 99.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 55,000.0 45,500.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,433.3 2,575.4 Pears : Ton : 1,001.8 911.5 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 150.0 158.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 21.2 15.9 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 830,000 1,060,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 49.5 18.0 Pecans : Lb : 338,500 178,400 Pistachios (CA) : " : 161,000 300,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 305.0 282.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,049 1,356 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,052,990 1,673,390 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,992,360 28,050,280 Corn for Silage : 3,031,130 Hay, All 3/ : 26,101,290 Alfalfa : 9,362,500 All Other : 16,738,790 Oats : 2,025,470 849,040 Proso Millet : 182,110 89,030 Rice : 1,311,200 1,297,840 Rye : 564,540 115,740 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,876,930 2,953,830 Sorghum for Silage : 142,450 Wheat, All 3/ :24,426,280 18,541,680 Winter :16,889,740 17,905,910 11,999,460 Durum : 1,177,240 1,093,880 Other Spring : 6,359,300 5,448,340 : Oilseeds : Canola : 590,440 515,980 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 317,680 284,900 Mustard Seed : 77,300 70,820 Peanuts : 549,570 524,760 Rapeseed : 1,380 1,250 Safflower : 88,630 79,320 Soybeans for Beans :29,849,130 29,202,430 Sunflowers : 1,046,120 892,340 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,650,520 5,023,540 Upland : 5,551,940 4,925,480 Amer-Pima : 98,580 98,060 Sugarbeets : 577,860 550,780 Sugarcane : 415,250 Tobacco : 174,130 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,700 4,690 Dry Edible Beans : 777,850 698,860 Dry Edible Peas : 122,500 113,190 Lentils : 89,440 84,580 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,510 Ginger Root (HI) : 130 Hops : 11,860 Peppermint Oil : 32,460 Potatoes, All 3/ : 530,470 516,590 Winter : 6,390 6,310 6,350 6,270 Spring : 35,530 34,840 Summer : 25,500 24,240 Fall : 463,050 451,150 Spearmint Oil : 7,280 Sweet Potatoes : 39,340 33,710 Taro (HI) 4/ : 170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2.95 4,939,580 Corn for Grain : 8.16 228,805,080 Corn for Silage : 31.42 95,235,350 Hay, All 2/ : 5.25 136,950,420 Alfalfa : 7.15 66,972,010 All Other : 4.18 69,978,420 Oats : 2.04 1,729,200 Proso Millet : 0.70 62,480 Rice : 7.37 9,568,990 Rye : 1.53 177,430 Sorghum for Grain : 3.18 9,392,290 Sorghum for Silage : 21.40 3,048,140 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.37 43,992,310 Winter : 2.59 31,101,970 Durum : 1.98 2,162,270 Other Spring : 1.97 10,728,070 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.36 704,210 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,823,490 Flaxseed : 1.12 319,270 Mustard Seed : 0.79 56,000 Peanuts : 2.87 1,506,150 Rapeseed : 1.64 2,050 Safflower : 1.70 135,160 Soybeans for Beans : 2.54 74,290,500 Sunflowers : 1.27 1,132,730 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.74 3,732,880 Upland : 0.73 3,591,580 Amer-Pima : 1.44 141,300 Sugarbeets : 45.38 24,992,940 Sugarcane : 78.50 32,596,960 Tobacco : 2.32 403,530 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.58 7,440 Dry Edible Beans : 1.95 1,359,600 Dry Edible Peas : 1.70 192,410 Lentils : 1.35 113,760 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 20,730 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.54 3,860 Ginger Root (HI) : 50.44 6,530 Hops : 2.23 26,460 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,090 Potatoes, All 2/ : 40.67 21,011,030 Winter : 30.03 30.03 190,780 188,380 Spring : 30.32 1,056,600 Summer : 34.59 838,510 Fall : 41.95 18,925,140 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 880 Sweet Potatoes : 16.82 566,900 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,770 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,233,490 2,201,740 1,918,700 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/ : 1,810 910 Lemons : 903,560 751,150 889,040 Oranges : 11,086,700 11,378,820 10,280,220 Tangelos (FL) : 86,180 88,000 97,980 Tangerines : 338,380 381,020 316,610 Temples (FL) : 50,800 63,500 57,150 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,276,790 3,897,310 Apricots : 74,810 81,770 Bananas (HI) : 12,700 8,620 Grapes : 5,959,840 6,480,930 Olives (CA) : 121,560 89,810 Papayas (HI) : 24,950 20,640 Peaches : 1,103,730 1,168,180 Pears : 908,800 826,850 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 136,080 143,340 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 19,230 14,380 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 376,480 480,810 Hazelnuts : 44,910 16,330 Pecans : 153,540 80,920 Pistachios (CA) : 73,030 136,080 Walnuts (CA) : 276,690 255,830 Maple Syrup : 5,240 6,780 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. January Weather Summary The influence of El Ni¤o on mainland U.S. weather patterns temporarily waned during January, despite the continuation of warm-episode conditions in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. In fact, the Nation experienced its second-driest January on record, according to preliminary data from the National Climatic Data Center. Unusually wet weather was confined to parts of the Northwest, but drought remained a major concern elsewhere from the Rockies westward. East of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, dismal runoff prospects for the remainder of 2003, low reservoir levels, and drought-damaged rangelands were among the most serious effects of long-term Western precipitation deficits. Unfavorably dry weather also persisted on the drought-affected northern and central High Plains. Just enough snow fell on the northern Plains in advance of a mid- to late-month cold outbreak to help protect winter wheat from temperatures as low as -30oF. In contrast, mild weather prevailed for the entire month on the central Plains, benefiting overwintering wheat despite dry soils and minimal snow. Dry weather and developing drought in the Corn Belt had little effect on Midwestern agriculture, but hampered upper Mississippi Valley river traffic due to low water levels and curtailed snow-dependent recreational activities. Meanwhile in the South, dry weather permitted an acceleration of fieldwork, following an excessively wet spell in late 2002. Farther north, heavy, early-month precipitation in the Northeast was followed by cold weather and several, mostly light, snowfalls. January temperatures ranged from 4 to 12 degrees F above normal across most of the West and High Plains, and averaged as much as 4 degrees F above normal in the upper Midwest. In contrast, monthly readings ranged from 4 to 10 degrees F below normal in Florida and were as much as 6 degrees F below normal elsewhere in the South. Cool January weather helped to acclimate Florida's citrus trees in advance of the January 24-25 freezing temperatures and added beneficial chill hours for fruit trees elsewhere in the Southeast. Monthly temperatures were mostly 2 to 8 degrees F below normal across the eastern one-third of the Nation, including the eastern Corn Belt and the Northeast. January Crop Summary Stormy weather persisted in the Pacific Northwest most of the month, delivering several inches of rain to low-lying coastal areas and significant snowfall to coastal mountain ranges. Significant amounts of precipitation also spilled over to inland mountains and valleys, improving topsoil moisture supplies, reducing long-term moisture deficits, and boosting irrigation reserves. The stormy weather ended drought conditions along the coast, but subsoil moisture reserves remained abnormally low in interior areas. The storms produced little precipitation as they moved into the Great Plains, maintaining abnormally dry subsoils and leaving winter wheat fields on the northern High Plains exposed to potentially damaging winds and extreme temperature fluctuations. However, the threat of heaving and winter kill was minimal, as temperatures averaged well above normal over the Rocky Mountains and northern High Plains most of the month, including an early-month period of record and near-record daily highs. The western Corn Belt and adjacent parts of the upper Mississippi Valley and central and northern Great Plains experienced mostly dry weather with alternating periods of above and below normal temperatures. Slightly colder and wetter weather prevailed in the eastern Corn Belt and Northeast, but total precipitation remained below average. In the southern Great Plains, warm days and cool nights supported growth of winter grains and forages most of the month. Soil moisture supplies were also adequate to support development, although dry, windy weather rapidly depleted moisture reserves on the Texas High Plains, while parts of central and southeast Texas experienced periods of excessively wet weather. Temperatures remained below normal across the Southeast during most of the month, with below freezing temperatures recorded as far south as central Florida, along the Gulf Coast, and into the southern Great Plains. Sub-freezing overnight temperatures frequently reached Florida's citrus region, producing some minor bloom injury on young citrus trees. However, there was no significant leaf burn or wood damage, and maturing fruit experienced very little damage. During the coldest nights, some damage was seen on vegetable crops and new plantings of sugarcane in the Everglades region. Also, strawberry producers ran overhead sprinklers to form protective ice caps on plants and immature fruit. Farther north, the cold weather provided beneficial chill hours for dormant fruit trees across the interior Southeast. In California, precipitation periodically interrupted field and orchard work in the central and northern valleys, but the delays were mostly brief. The precipitation, combined with above-normal temperatures, contributed to vigorous crop growth. Irrigated winter crops also flourished in the abnormally warm weather. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for 2002 is estimated at 35.9 million tons, 4 percent above last year. Acres harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed are estimated at 1.03 million for the 2002 crop year, slightly less than last year's harvested area. Yield is estimated at 35.0 tons per acre, 1.3 tons above 2001. In Florida, acres harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed are down 1 percent from last year's record high acreage. The Florida harvest continues with dry, favorable weather. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2002-03 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.12 million tons, unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 13 percent less than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast remains unchanged at 40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons) but 14 percent below last season. The crop was not affected by below freezing temperatures that occurred in late January. The all white grapefruit forecast remains at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), 15 percent below last season. The colored grapefruit utilization is forecast at 24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), 14 percent less than the previous season. The projected fruit size and droppage are unchanged from January, with average sizes above the 10-season average and slightly less droppage than the 10-season average. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried froward from the January forecasts. Tangerines: The 2002-03 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 349,000 tons, down 1 percent from the January 1 forecast and 17 percent below last season's utilization of 420,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop forecast, at 5.00 million boxes (238,000 tons), is down 2 percent from last month and 24 percent lower than last season's utilization. Harvest of the Fallglo variety is complete and Sunburst tangerine harvest is virtually complete. Harvest is active for the late season Honey variety. Fruit size is smaller than last month which may be the result of cold weather inhibiting growth. The 2002-03 Florida tangerine forecast only includes the Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey tangerines. It does not include the Robinson and Dancy varieties as in previous seasons. This program change was implemented because of the declassification of Robinson and Dancy tangerines by the Florida Citrus Commission. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts. Tangelos: Florida's 2002-03 tangelo forecast remains at 2.40 million boxes (108,000 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 12 percent more than last season's utilized production. Over two-thirds of the crop has been harvested as of February 1. Temples: Florida's Temples are forecast at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2002-03 season, unchanged from January but 10 percent below last season. If realized, this forecast would equal the freeze affected 1989-90 crop as the second smallest on record. Expected average fruit size is unchanged from last month. K-Early Citrus: K-Early citrus has been dropped from the citrus estimation program. This fruit type has been declassified by the Florida Citrus Commission and forecasts have been discontinued. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.87 million pounds for January, up 5 percent from last month and 16 percent above January 2002. Area in crop totaled 2,080 acres, virtually unchanged from last month but 19 percent below last January. Harvested area, at 1,505 acres, is 1 percent more than last month but 18 percent lower than January 2002. Weather conditions over major non-irrigated papaya orchards were mostly dry during January. Flowering and seedling growth were adversely affected by the lack of normal rainfall. Florida Citrus: The first week of January saw cool, wet weather with the remainder of the month being dry and cold. On January 24, temperatures were at freezing or below in almost all areas of the citrus belt. Freezing temperatures combined with strong winds in the northern most area resulted in some fruit icing. However, most of the early and midseason oranges were already harvested in these locations and the small amount of fruit remaining on the trees was quickly harvested for processing before damage occurred. Temperatures in the central and southern areas did not remain cold long enough to result in any damage. Processing plants limited deliveries to regulate processing in an orderly manner. The cold weather did not affect the grapefruit crop, which is grown mostly on the east coast where temperatures were not as low. Growers and caretakers irrigated the last half of the month to maintain groves. Caretakers were active mowing and chopping cover crops for fire prevention. Hedging and topping of harvested groves continued across all areas and dead trees continue to be removed and burned when permits can be obtained. California Citrus: Picking of navel oranges continued in several areas. Lemon harvesting was winding down in some locations by month's end. Minneola tangelo harvesting increased steadily. Rio Red, Pummelo, and Oroblanco variety grapefruit were harvested in the desert area. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities such as pruning, grafting, cultivating, and dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Warm sunny weather during the middle of the month raised concerns that tree fruit buds would break dormancy too early. Tying, brush shredding, cultivation, and herbicide treatments continued in wine, raisin, and table grape vineyards. Orchard and vineyard removal continued with trees and vines piled for burning or chipping. Open ground was prepared for new plantings. Many tree fruit orchards were grafted with new fruit varieties. Weeding activity was underway in many strawberry fields in Fresno County. The strawberry plants continued to show steady growth, and harvesting began in some locations. Bee hives were placed in some stone fruit orchards in anticipation of bloom by month's end. Blooms were reported in a number of early variety peach and nectarine orchards in the Sanger, Selma, and Reedley districts. Buds began to swell in almond orchards, indicating that bloom was near. Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 4.3 percent. However, if you exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 4.3 percent, or 3.9 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 7.4 percent, or 7.0 percent excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 335,000 tons (336,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 31,000 tons to 745,000 tons (31,000 tons to 745,000 tons, excluding freezes). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 4 times and above 11 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats (202) 690-3234 Roy Karkosh - Barley, Sorghum, Sugar Crops (202) 690-8140 Mark E. Miller - Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250 Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 11, 2003. 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