Cr Pr 2-2 (3-03) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 11, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Virtually Unchanged from February The U.S. all orange March 1 forecast for the 2002-03 crop is 11.4 million tons, virtually unchanged from the February 1 forecast but 9 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is unchanged at 199 million boxes (8.96 million tons) but 13 percent below the previous season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 113 million boxes (5.09 million tons), unchanged from last month but 12 percent below the previous season. The harvest of the early and midseason varieties is nearly complete. Florida's Valencia forecast is unchanged at 86.0 million boxes (3.87 million tons) but 16 percent below last season's final utilization. Average fruit size is the largest on record since 1960. Loss from droppage remains above the 10 season average. California's all orange forecast is 62.0 million boxes (2.33 million tons), up 2 percent from the January forecast and 11 percent above last season. Valencia oranges are forecast at 22.0 million boxes (825,000 tons), up 5 percent from the January forecast but unchanged from last season's final utilization. California conducted an objective measurement survey and a grower survey for the March 1 forecast. The Arizona and Texas all orange and California's navel orange production forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is lowered from 1.57 to 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The early and midseason portion is projected at 1.49 gallons per box, down from 1.50 in February. The Valencia portion was lowered to 1.65 gallons per box from 1.67. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on March 11, 2003. Acting Secretary of Agriculture James R. Moseley Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Sugarcane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2001-2002 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 445.0 441.0 35.1 38.4 15,620 16,934 HI 2/ : 19.3 23.6 97.3 94.3 1,878 2,225 LA 2/ : 460.0 465.0 29.0 29.0 13,340 13,485 TX 2/ : 46.0 43.8 42.1 37.7 1,937 1,651 : US : 970.3 973.4 33.8 35.2 32,775 34,295 : For Seed : FL : 20.0 20.0 35.9 38.3 718 766 HI 2/ : 1.5 1.5 36.2 39.1 54 59 LA 2/ : 35.0 30.0 29.0 29.0 1,015 870 TX 2/ : 1.0 1.2 25.0 30.0 25 36 : US : 57.5 52.7 31.5 32.8 1,812 1,731 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 465.0 461.0 35.1 38.4 16,338 17,700 HI 2/ : 20.8 25.1 92.9 91.0 1,932 2,284 LA 2/ : 495.0 495.0 29.0 29.0 14,355 14,355 TX 2/ : 47.0 45.0 41.7 37.5 1,962 1,687 : US : 1,027.8 1,026.1 33.7 35.1 34,587 36,026 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the 2002 Crop Production Summary. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Jan : 2,575 2,080 1,830 1,505 3,345 3,865 Feb : 2,555 2,085 1,925 1,510 3,310 3,775 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2000-2001, 2001-2002 and Forecasted March 1, 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2000-01 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2000-01 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 480 270 200 18 10 8 CA 4/ : 35,500 34,000 40,000 1,331 1,275 1,500 FL : 128,000 128,000 113,000 5,760 5,760 5,085 TX 4/ : 2,000 1,530 1,500 85 65 64 US : 165,980 163,800 154,700 7,194 7,110 6,657 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 420 250 250 16 9 9 CA : 19,000 22,000 22,000 713 825 825 FL : 95,300 102,000 86,000 4,288 4,590 3,870 TX 4/ : 235 210 180 10 9 8 US : 114,955 124,460 108,430 5,027 5,433 4,712 All : AZ 4/ : 900 520 450 34 19 17 CA : 54,500 56,000 62,000 2,044 2,100 2,325 FL : 223,300 230,000 199,000 10,048 10,350 8,955 TX 4/ : 2,235 1,740 1,680 95 74 72 US : 280,935 288,260 263,130 12,221 12,543 11,369 Temples : FL : 1,250 1,550 1,400 56 70 63 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 18,700 18,900 16,000 795 803 680 Colored Seedless : FL : 27,300 27,800 24,000 1,160 1,182 1,020 All : AZ 4/ : 250 160 100 8 5 3 CA 4/ : 6,300 6,000 5,600 211 201 188 FL : 46,000 46,700 40,000 1,955 1,985 1,700 TX 4/ : 7,200 5,900 5,600 288 236 224 US : 59,750 58,760 51,300 2,462 2,427 2,115 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 650 620 450 24 23 17 CA 4/ 6/ : 2,200 2,200 2,500 83 83 94 FL 7/ : 5,600 6,600 5,000 266 314 238 US : 8,450 9,420 7,950 373 420 349 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,600 2,800 2,800 137 106 106 CA : 22,600 19,000 23,000 859 722 874 US : 26,200 21,800 25,800 996 828 980 Tangelos : FL : 2,100 2,150 2,400 95 97 108 K-Early Citrus 8/ : FL : 40 30 2 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5/ Includes seedy. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 7/ 2000-01 through 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey varieties only. 8/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,073.0 4,135.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 79,054.0 69,313.0 Corn for Silage : 7,490.0 Hay, All : 64,497.0 Alfalfa : 23,135.0 All Other : 41,362.0 Oats : 5,005.0 2,098.0 Proso Millet : 450.0 220.0 Rice : 3,240.0 3,207.0 Rye : 1,395.0 286.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,580.0 7,299.0 Sorghum for Silage : 352.0 Wheat, All : 60,358.0 45,817.0 Winter : 41,735.0 44,246.0 29,651.0 Durum : 2,909.0 2,703.0 Other Spring : 15,714.0 13,463.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,459.0 1,275.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 785.0 704.0 Mustard Seed : 191.0 175.0 Peanuts : 1,358.0 1,296.7 Rapeseed : 3.4 3.1 Safflower : 219.0 196.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,758.0 72,160.0 Sunflowers : 2,585.0 2,205.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,962.6 12,413.3 Upland : 13,719.0 12,171.0 Amer-Pima : 243.6 242.3 Sugarbeets : 1,427.9 1,361.0 Sugarcane : 1,026.1 Tobacco : 430.3 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 21.5 11.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,922.1 1,726.9 Dry Edible Peas : 302.7 279.7 Lentils : 221.0 209.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.2 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.3 Hops : 29.3 Peppermint Oil : 80.2 Potatoes, All : 1,310.8 1,276.5 Winter : 15.8 15.6 15.7 15.5 Spring : 87.8 86.1 Summer : 63.0 59.9 Fall : 1,144.2 1,114.8 Spearmint Oil : 18.0 Sweet Potatoes : 97.2 83.3 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 54.9 226,873 Corn for Grain : " : 130.0 9,007,659 Corn for Silage : Ton : 14.0 104,979 Hay, All : " : 2.34 150,962 Alfalfa : " : 3.19 73,824 All Other : " : 1.86 77,138 Oats : Bu : 56.8 119,132 Proso Millet : " : 12.5 2,755 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,578 210,960 Rye : Bu : 24.4 6,985 Sorghum for Grain : " : 50.7 369,758 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 9.5 3,360 Wheat, All : Bu : 35.3 1,616,441 Winter : " : 38.5 1,142,802 Durum : " : 29.4 79,450 Other Spring : " : 29.3 394,189 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,218 1,552,520 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,419.3 Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 12,569 Mustard Seed : Lb : 705 123,450 Peanuts : " : 2,561 3,320,490 Rapeseed : " : 1,461 4,530 Safflower : " : 1,520 297,980 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 37.8 2,729,709 Sunflower : Lb : 1,133 2,497,236 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 663 17,145.0 Upland 2/ : " : 651 16,496.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,286 649.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.2 27,550 Sugarcane : " : 35.1 36,026 Tobacco : Lb : 2,068 889,632 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,414 164 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,736 29,974 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,517 4,242 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,200 2,508 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 457 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,370 8,500 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 45,000 14,400 Hops : " : 1,990 58,336.6 Peppermint Oil : " : 85 6,818 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 363 463,214 Winter : " : 268 268 4,206 4,153 Spring : " : 271 23,294 Summer : " : 309 18,486 Fall : " : 374 417,228 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 108 1,942 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 150 12,498 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,462 2,427 2,115 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/: " : 2 1 Lemons : " : 996 828 980 Oranges : " : 12,221 12,543 11,369 Tangelos (FL) : " : 95 97 108 Tangerines : " : 373 420 349 Temples (FL) : " : 56 70 63 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 9,428.7 8,592.1 Apricots : Ton : 82.5 90.1 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 28,000.0 19,000.0 Grapes : Ton : 6,569.6 7,144.0 Olives (CA) : " : 134.0 99.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 55,000.0 45,500.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,433.3 2,575.4 Pears : Ton : 1,001.8 911.5 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 150.0 158.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 21.2 15.9 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 830,000 1,060,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 49.5 18.0 Pecans : Lb : 338,500 178,400 Pistachios (CA) : " : 161,000 300,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 305.0 282.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,049 1,356 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,052,990 1,673,390 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,992,360 28,050,280 Corn for Silage : 3,031,130 Hay, All 3/ : 26,101,290 Alfalfa : 9,362,500 All Other : 16,738,790 Oats : 2,025,470 849,040 Proso Millet : 182,110 89,030 Rice : 1,311,200 1,297,840 Rye : 564,540 115,740 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,876,930 2,953,830 Sorghum for Silage : 142,450 Wheat, All 3/ :24,426,280 18,541,680 Winter :16,889,740 17,905,910 11,999,460 Durum : 1,177,240 1,093,880 Other Spring : 6,359,300 5,448,340 : Oilseeds : Canola : 590,440 515,980 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 317,680 284,900 Mustard Seed : 77,300 70,820 Peanuts : 549,570 524,760 Rapeseed : 1,380 1,250 Safflower : 88,630 79,320 Soybeans for Beans :29,849,130 29,202,430 Sunflowers : 1,046,120 892,340 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,650,520 5,023,540 Upland : 5,551,940 4,925,480 Amer-Pima : 98,580 98,060 Sugarbeets : 577,860 550,780 Sugarcane : 415,250 Tobacco : 174,130 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,700 4,690 Dry Edible Beans : 777,850 698,860 Dry Edible Peas : 122,500 113,190 Lentils : 89,440 84,580 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,510 Ginger Root (HI) : 130 Hops : 11,860 Peppermint Oil : 32,460 Potatoes, All 3/ : 530,470 516,590 Winter : 6,390 6,310 6,350 6,270 Spring : 35,530 34,840 Summer : 25,500 24,240 Fall : 463,050 451,150 Spearmint Oil : 7,280 Sweet Potatoes : 39,340 33,710 Taro (HI) 4/ : 170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2.95 4,939,580 Corn for Grain : 8.16 228,805,080 Corn for Silage : 31.42 95,235,350 Hay, All 2/ : 5.25 136,950,420 Alfalfa : 7.15 66,972,010 All Other : 4.18 69,978,420 Oats : 2.04 1,729,200 Proso Millet : 0.70 62,480 Rice : 7.37 9,568,990 Rye : 1.53 177,430 Sorghum for Grain : 3.18 9,392,290 Sorghum for Silage : 21.40 3,048,140 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.37 43,992,310 Winter : 2.59 31,101,970 Durum : 1.98 2,162,270 Other Spring : 1.97 10,728,070 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.36 704,210 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,823,490 Flaxseed : 1.12 319,270 Mustard Seed : 0.79 56,000 Peanuts : 2.87 1,506,150 Rapeseed : 1.64 2,050 Safflower : 1.70 135,160 Soybeans for Beans : 2.54 74,290,500 Sunflowers : 1.27 1,132,730 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.74 3,732,880 Upland : 0.73 3,591,580 Amer-Pima : 1.44 141,300 Sugarbeets : 45.38 24,992,940 Sugarcane : 78.70 32,682,240 Tobacco : 2.32 403,530 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.58 7,440 Dry Edible Beans : 1.95 1,359,600 Dry Edible Peas : 1.70 192,410 Lentils : 1.35 113,760 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 20,730 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.54 3,860 Ginger Root (HI) : 50.44 6,530 Hops : 2.23 26,460 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,090 Potatoes, All 2/ : 40.67 21,011,030 Winter : 30.03 30.03 190,780 188,380 Spring : 30.32 1,056,600 Summer : 34.59 838,510 Fall : 41.95 18,925,140 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 880 Sweet Potatoes : 16.82 566,900 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,770 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,233,490 2,201,740 1,918,700 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/ : 1,810 910 Lemons : 903,560 751,150 889,040 Oranges : 11,086,700 11,378,820 10,313,780 Tangelos (FL) : 86,180 88,000 97,980 Tangerines : 338,380 381,020 316,610 Temples (FL) : 50,800 63,500 57,150 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,276,790 3,897,310 Apricots : 74,810 81,770 Bananas (HI) : 12,700 8,620 Grapes : 5,959,840 6,480,930 Olives (CA) : 121,560 89,810 Papayas (HI) : 24,950 20,640 Peaches : 1,103,730 1,168,180 Pears : 908,800 826,850 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 136,080 143,340 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 19,230 14,380 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 376,480 480,810 Hazelnuts : 44,910 16,330 Pecans : 153,540 80,920 Pistachios (CA) : 73,030 136,080 Walnuts (CA) : 276,690 255,830 Maple Syrup : 5,240 6,780 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. February Weather and Crop Summary Following an uncharacteristically tranquil January, much of the Nation experienced a return to stormy weather in February. Specifically, wet weather redeveloped across the South (excluding southern Florida and portions of the southern High Plains), while some locations from the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic States and southern New England endured record-setting snowfall totals. Southern wetness slowed or halted spring planting preparations from the western Gulf Coast region to the southern Atlantic States, including the Delta. Farther north, however, drought gradually intensified in parts of the Midwest, primarily from northern Missouri to Lower Michigan. Meanwhile, the Plains received varying amounts of precipitation. Dryness persisted across northern Texas, but late-month snowfall on the central Plains boosted soil moisture reserves and insulated the winter wheat crop from a late-season cold snap. On the northern Plains, however, only a shallow snow cover protected wheat from temperatures as low as -30 degrees F. Elsewhere, areas from the Southwest to the Rockies received beneficial precipitation that boosted topsoil moisture and mountain snow packs, but provided only limited relief from long-term drought. Much of the West faces water-supply concerns due to the combination of already low reservoir levels, near to below normal snow packs, and poor spring and summer runoff prospects. Monthly temperatures were within a few degrees of normal west of the Rockies and up to 4 degrees F above normal in southern Florida, but significantly below normal elsewhere. The coldest areas, the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast, where monthly readings ranged from 2 to 10 degrees F below normal maintained stress on livestock. February Crop Summary Seasonally heavy precipitation in the Pacific Northwest alleviated dry soil conditions in some areas, but were not as helpful in others. Soil moisture was generally adequate throughout California with some growers supplementing with irrigation. Abnormally dry soil conditions remained throughout much of the Southwest, Rocky Mountains, and Great Plains regions. Snowpack measurements generally were greater than during 2002, but still ranged from below normal to significantly below normal in most locations. Low reservoir levels and water shortages remain a concern. Soil moisture was adequate to surplus across a wide swath from Texas, through the Tennessee Valley, to New England. Winter wheat emergence was aided by warmer temperatures and adequate rainfall in eastern Washington, while some western fields were flooded by heavy precipitation. Continued mild weather allowed some winter wheat to emerge from dormancy in Idaho. By mid-month, rainfall in California restricted fieldwork, but was beneficial to wheat, barley, oats, and alfalfa. The season's first cutting of alfalfa hay took place in early February. Rainfall late in the month slowed the picking of citrus fruit, which helped packinghouses clear inventories. Winter pastures were in good condition throughout the month with the best conditions reported in the northern half of the State. Vegetable planting was active, and many fields thrived in the warm weather. Cool weather in Florida slowed the development of vegetables and pastures while dry, windy conditions lowered soil moisture supplies early in the month. Significant rains fell around the middle and end of the month, replenishing soil moisture in some areas. The citrus harvest was active for early and midseason oranges. Sugarcane harvesting continued in the Everglades. Very dry subsoil conditions remain across the northern Corn Belt. Rainfall in the southern Corn Belt helped alleviate soil moisture deficits, with most locations now rated dry to adequate. Iowa reported an average of 1 inch of snowcover. Illinois and Indiana experienced extreme cold weather mid-month. In the Valley region of Texas, harvest of sugarcane, citrus, and vegetables occurred, and planting began for cotton, corn, and sorghum. Deep-breaking occurred in some areas, but fieldwork was nonexistent in much of the State due to a barrage of snow, rain, and ice. Corn producers were delayed in land preparation and planting was well behind average. The adverse conditions have stressed livestock in Texas and Oklahoma, forcing farmers and ranchers to feed extra amounts of hay. In South Dakota, February brought some periods of cold weather and snowfall, but most of the State experienced continuing mild winter weather. With dry soil conditions and little snowcover, there was concern for the condition of winter crops. Minnesota conditions have been relatively mild with some cold weather and minimal snowcover. In North Carolina, wet and cold weather, combined with poor pasture conditions, increased hay and feed grain demands for livestock operations. Onion planting in Georgia was behind schedule due to continued wet weather. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for 2002 is estimated at 36.0 million tons, up slightly from the February forecast and 4 percent above last year's estimate. Acres harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed are estimated at 1.03 million for the 2002 crop year, slightly less than last year's harvested area. Yield is estimated at 35.1 tons per acre, 1.4 tons above 2001. In Florida, acres harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed are down 1 percent from last year's record high acreage. Recent rains in Florida caused only minor harvesting delays. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.78 million pounds for February, down 2 percent from last month but up 14 percent from February 2002. Area in crop totaled 2,085 acres and area harvested totaled 1,510 acres, both virtually unchanged from last month but down 18 and 22 percent from last year, respectively. Weather conditions were variable over the papaya producing areas. Rainfall during February replenished soil moisture levels in non-irrigated orchards. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2002-03 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.12 million tons, unchanged from the February 1 forecast but 13 percent lower than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast remains unchanged at 40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons) but 14 percent below last season. The all white grapefruit forecast remains at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), 15 percent below last season. The colored grapefruit utilization is forecast at 24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), 14 percent less than the previous season. Fruit size is average, unchanged from February. Fresh utilization is ahead of the previous 2 seasons for colored grapefruit but behind for white. Movement was more than 1 million boxes per week during February for processed fruit (packinghouse eliminations and direct to processor). Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried froward from the January forecasts. Tangelos: Florida's 2002-03 tangelo forecast is 2.40 million boxes (108,000 tons), unchanged from the previous month but 12 percent more than last season's utilized production. Fresh shipments continue to decline from previous seasons, while processed utilization is increasing. Tangerines: The 2002-03 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 349,000 tons, unchanged from the February 1 forecast but 17 percent below last season's utilization of 420,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop forecast is unchanged at 5.00 million boxes (238,000 tons) but 24 percent lower than last season's utilization. Harvest of the early varieties is virtually complete. Harvest continues for the late season Honey variety. Fruit sizes remain at the 10 season average. Droppage is below average. The 2002-03 Florida tangerine forecast only includes the Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey tangerines. It does not include the Robinson and Dancy varieties as in previous seasons. This program change was implemented because of the declassification of Robinson and Dancy tangerines by the Florida Citrus Commission. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts. Temples: Florida's Temples are forecast at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2002-03 season, unchanged from February but 10 percent below last season. If realized, this forecast would equal the freeze affected 1989-90 crop as the second smallest on record. Average fruit size continues to exceed the previous 10 season series. Fruit droppage is above average. Fresh shipments are at the lowest level on record. Most of the remaining fruit will be harvested for processing use. K-Early Citrus: K-Early citrus has been dropped from the citrus estimation program. This fruit type has been declassified by the Florida Citrus Commission and forecasts have been discontinued. Florida Citrus: February was generally very dry with mild temperatures. Most areas reported half of their normal rainfall. Growers and caretakers irrigated to keep groves and trees in good condition. During the last two weeks of February, new growth and buds started showing on younger trees. Older trees were also showing buds. Harvest of early and midseason oranges declined during the month with very little of the early fruit remaining. Harvesting of Valencia oranges for both fresh and processing began. Some growers moved into Valencia groves to keep pickers active. Fresh grapefruit and Honey tangerine shipments were down the first of the month but became more active. Tangelo and early tangerine harvests are virtually complete. Caretakers have been very busy cutting cover crops for fire protection and to help generate new growth for the up coming bloom cycle. Hedging and topping in harvested groves were being reported for all areas. Dead trees are being removed and burned in all areas. Pre-bloom fertilizing and spraying are almost complete. California Citrus: Navel orange harvest continued throughout February. Fungicides were applied in some areas. Harvest of early variety Valencia oranges began mid February in some groves. Grapefruit harvest was ongoing in the desert and in the San Joaquin Valley. Lemons and Minneola tangelos were picked throughout the month. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities such as pruning, grafting, cultivating, irrigating, and dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Bee hives were in place for pollination but were only active as weather conditions allowed. Bloom in peach, plum, nectarine, and apricot orchards became more widespread due to plentiful sunshine and warm daytime temperatures. To date no damage from cold overnight temperatures has been reported. Bloom spray applications began in a few early variety stone fruit orchards. Peach orchards were treated for San Jose scale. Orchard and vineyard removal continued while brush was shredded and disced in active orchards. Stumps and brush were piled for burning or chipping. Open ground was prepared for planting of new tree fruit orchards. Strawberry plants were progressing well and nearly ready to bloom in some locations by month's end. Some blueberry plantings were covered with plastic to induce bud break and earlier blooming. Cherry buds started to swell by the end of the month. Almond orchards were in bloom. Fungicides were applied to protect the blossoms from disease and insect pests. Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 3.3 percent. However, if you exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.3 percent, or 3.0 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.7 percent, or 5.3 percent excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 234,000 tons (220,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 8,000 tons to 713,000 tons. The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 5 times and above 10 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats (202) 690-3234 Roy Karkosh - Barley, Sorghum, Sugar Crops (202) 690-8140 Terry O'Connor - Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-4288 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250 Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on April 10, 2003. 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