Cr Pr 2-2 (4-03) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 10, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Down Less Than 1 Percent. The U.S. all orange April 1 forecast for the 2002-03 crop is 11.3 million tons, virtually unchanged from the March forecast but down 9 percent from last season's revised final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast, at 198 million boxes (8.91 million tons), is down 1 percent from the previous forecast and 14 percent below last season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 112 boxes (5.04 million tons), 1 percent below the previous forecast and 12 percent less than last season's final utilization. Harvest is complete. Florida's Valencia forecast is unchanged at 86.0 million boxes (3.87 million tons) but 16 percent below the previous season. The all orange forecast for California, at 62.0 million boxes, is unchanged from the previous forecast but 14 percent above the previous season's revised utilization. Navel and Valencia oranges are unchanged at 40.0 million boxes (1.50 million tons) and 22.0 million boxes (825,000 tons), respectively. The Texas all orange forecast is 1.58 million boxes (68,000 tons), down 100,000 boxes from the January forecast and 160,000 boxes less than last season's utilized production. Arizona's all orange utilization is forecast at 400,000 boxes (16,000 tons), a decrease of 50,000 boxes from the previous forecast and 120,000 boxes below the 2001-02 utilization. If realized, this will be the sixth consecutive season of declining utilization for Arizona. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is unchanged from last month at 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The early and midseason portion is projected at 1.49 gallons per box. The Valencia portion remains at 1.65 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on April 10, 2003. Acting Secretary of Agriculture James R. Moseley Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2000-2001, 2001-2002 and Forecasted April 1, 2003 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2000-01 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2000-01 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 3/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 4/ : AZ : 480 270 200 18 10 8 CA : 35,500 34,000 40,000 1,331 1,275 1,500 FL : 128,000 128,000 112,000 5,760 5,760 5,040 TX : 2,000 1,530 1,400 85 65 60 US : 165,980 163,800 153,600 7,194 7,110 6,608 Valencia : AZ : 420 250 200 16 9 8 CA : 19,000 20,500 22,000 713 769 825 FL : 95,300 102,000 86,000 4,288 4,590 3,870 TX : 235 210 180 10 9 8 US : 114,955 122,960 108,380 5,027 5,377 4,711 All : AZ : 900 520 400 34 19 16 CA : 54,500 54,500 62,000 2,044 2,044 2,325 FL : 223,300 230,000 198,000 10,048 10,350 8,910 TX : 2,235 1,740 1,580 95 74 68 US : 280,935 286,760 261,980 12,221 12,487 11,319 Temples : FL : 1,250 1,550 1,300 56 70 59 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 18,700 18,900 16,000 795 803 680 Colored Seedless : FL : 27,300 27,800 24,000 1,160 1,182 1,020 All : AZ : 250 160 100 8 5 3 CA : 6,300 6,000 5,600 211 201 188 FL : 46,000 46,700 40,000 1,955 1,985 1,700 TX : 7,200 5,900 5,500 288 236 220 US : 59,750 58,760 51,200 2,462 2,427 2,111 Tangerines : AZ 6/ : 650 620 400 24 23 15 CA 6/ : 2,200 2,200 2,500 83 83 94 FL 7/ : 5,600 6,600 5,200 266 314 247 US : 8,450 9,420 8,100 373 420 356 Lemons : AZ : 3,600 2,800 2,900 137 106 110 CA : 22,600 19,000 23,000 859 722 874 US : 26,200 21,800 25,900 996 828 984 Tangelos : FL : 2,100 2,150 2,350 95 97 106 K-Early Citrus 8/ : FL : 40 30 2 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ 2001-02 Revised. 3/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 5/ Includes seedy. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 7/ 2000-01 through 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey varieties only. 8/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :---------------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------ State : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 :2002 :2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Acres -------- -- Cwt -- ----- 1,000 Cwt ---- : Winter : CA : 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 270 310 2,790 2,430 2,790 FL : 6.8 6.0 6.7 5.8 265 235 1,325 1,776 1,363 : Total : 15.8 15.0 15.7 14.8 268 281 4,115 4,206 4,153 : Spring : AZ : 7.8 8.0 7.8 8.0 270 280 2,214 2,106 2,240 CA : 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 405 410 6,045 7,695 7,790 FL : 27.0 28.0 26.3 27.3 300 286 7,970 7,883 7,817 Hastings : 19.5 19.5 19.0 19.0 315 300 5,940 5,985 5,700 Other FL : 7.5 8.5 7.3 8.3 260 255 2,030 1,898 2,117 NC : 21.5 18.0 21.0 17.0 170 165 3,515 3,570 2,805 TX : 12.5 13.0 12.0 12.5 170 240 2,070 2,040 3,000 : Total : 87.8 86.0 86.1 83.8 271 282 21,814 23,294 23,652 : Summer 1/ : AL : 3.1 3.0 185 624 555 CA : 7.3 7.3 360 2,840 2,628 CO : 6.4 6.3 360 2,016 2,268 DE : 3.7 3.6 260 1,161 936 IL : 6.5 6.4 310 1,855 1,984 KS : 3.0 2.9 340 720 986 MD : 4.8 4.7 250 1,175 1,175 MO : 7.0 5.4 240 1,904 1,296 NJ : 2.6 2.6 275 638 715 NM : 2.5 2.3 320 770 736 TX : 8.8 8.3 400 3,120 3,320 VA : 6.5 6.3 220 1,386 1,386 : Total : 62.2 59.1 304 18,209 17,985 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Feb : 2,555 2,085 1,925 1,510 3,310 3,775 Mar : 2,490 2,255 1,930 1,735 3,375 4,015 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,073.0 5,379.0 4,135.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 79,054.0 79,022.0 69,313.0 Corn for Silage : 7,490.0 Hay, All : 64,497.0 63,552.0 Alfalfa : 23,135.0 All Other : 41,362.0 Oats : 5,005.0 4,828.0 2,098.0 2,204.0 Proso Millet : 450.0 220.0 Rice : 3,240.0 3,038.0 3,207.0 Rye : 1,395.0 286.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,580.0 9,451.0 7,299.0 Sorghum for Silage : 352.0 Wheat, All : 60,358.0 61,697.0 45,817.0 Winter : 41,735.0 44,308.0 29,651.0 Durum : 2,909.0 2,833.0 2,703.0 Other Spring : 15,714.0 14,556.0 13,463.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,459.0 1,249.0 1,275.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 785.0 704.0 Mustard Seed : 191.0 175.0 Peanuts : 1,358.0 1,244.0 1,296.7 Rapeseed : 3.4 3.1 Safflower : 219.0 196.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,758.0 73,182.0 72,160.0 Sunflowers : 2,585.0 2,517.0 2,205.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,962.6 14,253.0 12,413.3 Upland : 13,719.0 14,053.0 12,171.0 Amer-Pima : 243.6 200.0 242.3 Sugarbeets : 1,427.9 1,399.3 1,361.0 Sugarcane : 1,026.1 Tobacco : 430.3 417.5 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 21.5 11.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,922.1 1,522.8 1,726.9 Dry Edible Peas : 302.7 279.7 Lentils : 221.0 209.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.2 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.3 Hops : 29.3 Peppermint Oil : 80.2 Potatoes, All : 1,310.0 1,275.7 Winter : 15.8 15.0 15.7 14.8 Spring : 87.8 86.0 86.1 83.8 Summer : 62.2 59.1 Fall : 1,144.2 1,114.8 Spearmint Oil : 18.0 Sweet Potatoes : 97.2 93.5 83.3 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 54.9 226,873 Corn for Grain : " : 130.0 9,007,659 Corn for Silage : Ton : 14.0 104,979 Hay, All : " : 2.34 150,962 Alfalfa : " : 3.19 73,824 All Other : " : 1.86 77,138 Oats : Bu : 56.8 119,132 Proso Millet : " : 12.5 2,755 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,578 210,960 Rye : Bu : 24.4 6,985 Sorghum for Grain : " : 50.7 369,758 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 9.5 3,360 Wheat, All : Bu : 35.3 1,616,441 Winter : " : 38.5 1,142,802 Durum : " : 29.4 79,450 Other Spring : " : 29.3 394,189 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,218 1,552,520 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,419.3 Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 12,569 Mustard Seed : Lb : 705 123,450 Peanuts : " : 2,561 3,320,490 Rapeseed : " : 1,461 4,530 Safflower : " : 1,520 297,980 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 37.8 2,729,709 Sunflower : Lb : 1,133 2,497,236 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 663 17,145.0 Upland 2/ : " : 651 16,496.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,286 649.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.2 27,550 Sugarcane : " : 35.1 36,026 Tobacco : Lb : 2,068 889,632 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,414 164 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,736 29,974 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,517 4,242 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,200 2,508 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 457 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,370 8,500 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 45,000 14,400 Hops : " : 1,990 58,336.6 Peppermint Oil : " : 85 6,818 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 363 462,713 Winter : " : 268 281 4,206 4,153 Spring : " : 271 282 23,294 23,652 Summer : " : 304 17,985 Fall : " : 374 417,228 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 108 1,942 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 150 12,498 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,462 2,427 2,111 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/: " : 2 1 Lemons : " : 996 828 984 Oranges : " : 12,221 12,487 11,319 Tangelos (FL) : " : 95 97 106 Tangerines : " : 373 420 356 Temples (FL) : " : 56 70 59 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 9,428.7 8,592.1 Apricots : Ton : 82.5 90.1 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 28,000.0 19,000.0 Grapes : Ton : 6,569.6 7,144.0 Olives (CA) : " : 134.0 99.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 55,000.0 45,500.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,433.3 2,575.4 Pears : Ton : 1,001.8 911.5 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 150.0 158.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 21.2 15.9 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 830,000 1,060,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 49.5 18.0 Pecans : Lb : 338,500 178,400 Pistachios (CA) : " : 161,000 300,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 305.0 282.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,049 1,356 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,052,990 2,176,830 1,673,390 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,992,360 31,979,410 28,050,280 Corn for Silage : 3,031,130 Hay, All 3/ : 26,101,290 25,718,860 Alfalfa : 9,362,500 All Other : 16,738,790 Oats : 2,025,470 1,953,840 849,040 891,940 Proso Millet : 182,110 89,030 Rice : 1,311,200 1,229,450 1,297,840 Rye : 564,540 115,740 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,876,930 3,824,730 2,953,830 Sorghum for Silage : 142,450 Wheat, All 3/ :24,426,280 24,968,160 18,541,680 Winter :16,889,740 17,931,000 11,999,460 Durum : 1,177,240 1,146,490 1,093,880 Other Spring : 6,359,300 5,890,670 5,448,340 : Oilseeds : Canola : 590,440 505,460 515,980 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 317,680 284,900 Mustard Seed : 77,300 70,820 Peanuts : 549,570 503,430 524,760 Rapeseed : 1,380 1,250 Safflower : 88,630 79,320 Soybeans for Beans :29,849,130 29,616,020 29,202,430 Sunflowers : 1,046,120 1,018,600 892,340 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,650,520 5,768,050 5,023,540 Upland : 5,551,940 5,687,110 4,925,480 Amer-Pima : 98,580 80,940 98,060 Sugarbeets : 577,860 566,280 550,780 Sugarcane : 415,250 Tobacco : 174,130 168,960 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,700 4,690 Dry Edible Beans : 777,850 616,260 698,860 Dry Edible Peas : 122,500 113,190 Lentils : 89,440 84,580 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,510 Ginger Root (HI) : 130 Hops : 11,860 Peppermint Oil : 32,460 Potatoes, All 3/ : 530,140 516,260 Winter : 6,390 6,070 6,350 5,990 Spring : 35,530 34,800 34,840 33,910 Summer : 25,170 23,920 Fall : 463,050 451,150 Spearmint Oil : 7,280 Sweet Potatoes : 39,340 37,840 33,710 Taro (HI) 4/ : 170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2.95 4,939,580 Corn for Grain : 8.16 228,805,080 Corn for Silage : 31.42 95,235,350 Hay, All 2/ : 5.25 136,950,420 Alfalfa : 7.15 66,972,010 All Other : 4.18 69,978,420 Oats : 2.04 1,729,200 Proso Millet : 0.70 62,480 Rice : 7.37 9,568,990 Rye : 1.53 177,430 Sorghum for Grain : 3.18 9,392,290 Sorghum for Silage : 21.40 3,048,140 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.37 43,992,310 Winter : 2.59 31,101,970 Durum : 1.98 2,162,270 Other Spring : 1.97 10,728,070 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.36 704,210 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,823,490 Flaxseed : 1.12 319,270 Mustard Seed : 0.79 56,000 Peanuts : 2.87 1,506,150 Rapeseed : 1.64 2,050 Safflower : 1.70 135,160 Soybeans for Beans : 2.54 74,290,500 Sunflowers : 1.27 1,132,730 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.74 3,732,880 Upland : 0.73 3,591,580 Amer-Pima : 1.44 141,300 Sugarbeets : 45.38 24,992,940 Sugarcane : 78.70 32,682,240 Tobacco : 2.32 403,530 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.58 7,440 Dry Edible Beans : 1.95 1,359,600 Dry Edible Peas : 1.70 192,410 Lentils : 1.35 113,760 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 20,730 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.54 3,860 Ginger Root (HI) : 50.44 6,530 Hops : 2.23 26,460 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,090 Potatoes, All 2/ : 40.65 20,988,310 Winter : 30.03 31.45 190,780 188,380 Spring : 30.32 31.63 1,056,600 1,072,840 Summer : 34.11 815,790 Fall : 41.95 18,925,140 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 880 Sweet Potatoes : 16.82 566,900 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,770 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,233,490 2,201,740 1,915,070 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/ : 1,810 910 Lemons : 903,560 751,150 892,670 Oranges : 11,086,700 11,328,020 10,268,420 Tangelos (FL) : 86,180 88,000 96,160 Tangerines : 338,380 381,020 322,960 Temples (FL) : 50,800 63,500 53,520 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,276,790 3,897,310 Apricots : 74,810 81,770 Bananas (HI) : 12,700 8,620 Grapes : 5,959,840 6,480,930 Olives (CA) : 121,560 89,810 Papayas (HI) : 24,950 20,640 Peaches : 1,103,730 1,168,180 Pears : 908,800 826,850 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 136,080 143,340 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 19,230 14,380 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 376,480 480,810 Hazelnuts : 44,910 16,330 Pecans : 153,540 80,920 Pistachios (CA) : 73,030 136,080 Walnuts (CA) : 276,690 255,830 Maple Syrup : 5,240 6,780 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production years are 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. March Weather Summary Stormy weather across much of the West boosted soil moisture reserves and improved high-elevation snow packs. Perhaps most noteworthy was the tremendous, but fairly localized, storm system that struck the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains from March 17-19. Nevertheless, Western water-supply concerns persisted due to the combination of near- to below-normal reservoir levels and prospects for below-normal spring and summer runoff in most watersheds. Farther east, a variety of conditions existed on the Plains. In winter wheat areas on the southern Plains, short-term precipitation deficits (3 months or less) were superimposed on mostly favorable long-term moisture conditions. As a result, topsoil moisture depletion was apparent in parts of northern Texas and western and central Oklahoma, although subsoil moisture remained generally adequate. Meanwhile, long-term drought persisted on the northern and central High Plains, despite near- to above-normal precipitation during March. Similar variability was noted in the Midwest. Drier-than-normal weather in the Ohio Valley followed previously wet conditions, while late-month precipitation elsewhere in the Corn Belt moistened topsoils but failed to reverse long-term precipitation deficits. By month's end, Midwestern drought was most severe in a band from northern Missouri and southern Iowa to Lower Michigan, but was also worsening across parts of the upper Midwest. Farther south, drier-than-normal weather favored an acceleration of spring planting operations from the western Gulf Coast region to the Tennessee Valley, including the Delta. In contrast, frequently heavy showers slowed fieldwork and caused lowland flooding in the southern Atlantic States. Significantly cooler-than-normal March weather (as much as 7 degrees F below normal) was confined to the Nation's northern tier from Montana to Maine. In contrast, monthly temperatures generally ranged from 3 to 7 degrees F above normal in Florida, where near-record to record warmth prevailed. Elsewhere, March temperatures were slightly above normal in the Southeast and in a broad area from the West Coast to the central High Plains, but near to slightly below normal from the Southwest to the Delta. March Crop Summary Temperatures fluctuated across the Nation during March, with record highs and record lows reported. Temperatures in the northern Rockies, northern Great Plains, Great Lakes region, and Northeast were generally below normal while temperatures in the rest of the country ranged from near to slightly above normal. Periods of warmer than usual weather across much of the country were followed by ice storms in the southern Great Plains, and snow storms in the Rockies, Great Plains, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Seasonally heavy precipitation in the low, coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest alleviated dry soil conditions. Abnormally dry soil conditions remained across much of the Southwest, Rocky Mountains, and Great Plains regions. Snowpack measurements were below normal in most locations, even though a significant mid-March storm greatly increased snowpack measurements in the central Rocky Mountains. The northern and central Great Plains, upper and middle Mississippi Valley, and western Great Lakes region experienced drier than normal conditions with little snowcover. Due to the lack of snowcover, winter wheat and alfalfa in the northern and central Great Plains were exposed to wind-blown soil and extreme temperature fluctuations. In the Corn Belt, conditions were warmer than average. Precipitation was below normal across most of the Corn Belt, the Ohio Valley, and eastern Great Lakes region. Precipitation was above normal in Florida and the Southeast. In California, warm weather and ample moisture supplies stimulated development of crops. Field and orchard work progressed with few interruptions. Pastures were in good overall condition, with the best conditions reported in the northern half of the State. Many Florida citrus growers irrigated on a rotating basis to maintain soil moisture and ensure good tree condition during the bloom cycle. Soil moisture supplies were rated mostly adequate to short. In southern Florida, the sugarcane harvest and work in vegetable fields continued with few delays. The Nation's winter wheat condition was rated as 3 percent very poor, 11 percent poor, 35 percent fair, 43 percent good, and 8 percent excellent on March 30. Warmer weather and rain showers combined to help the wheat crop begin its spring "green up" in the middle Mississippi Valley. Warm weather in the northern Great Plains allowed the crop to progress ahead of last year's pace. On March 30, one percent of the oat crop was planted, compared with 3 percent planted at this time last year, and behind the 4 percent 5-year average. Dry weather favored seedbed preparation across the northern Corn Belt and adjacent parts of the Great Plains, but planting was just getting underway. Seven percent of the rice crop was planted by the end of March, 1 percentage point behind last year and equal to the 5-year average. Rice planting progressed in Louisiana, advancing 16 points during the last week of March. Despite this progress, planting remained behind last year and the 5-year average. Wet weather delayed planting in interior areas of the Mississippi Delta. Planting progressed in Texas, but wet field conditions delayed some producers. Ten percent of the sorghum acreage was planted, compared with 12 percent at this time last year, and 1 percentage point behind the 5-year average for this date. In Texas, land preparations continued in drier locations, but were slowed in areas where rain fell. Early planted fields continued to emerge and benefit from good moisture levels. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2002-03 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.11 million tons, virtually unchanged from the March forecast but 13 percent lower than the previous season. The Florida grapefruit forecast is estimated at 40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 14 percent below last season. The all white grapefruit forecast remains at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), 15 percent below last season. The colored grapefruit utilization is forecast at 24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 14 percent less than the previous season. Fruit size is average, unchanged from March, but fruit loss from droppage has increased slightly. California's grapefruit forecast remains unchanged at 5.60 million boxes (188,000 tons) but 7 percent less than last season's final utilization. Exterior quality is good with excellent color. Flavor and eating quality are also excellent. The Texas grapefruit forecast is 5.50 million boxes (220,000 boxes), 2 percent less than the previous forecast and 7 percent lower than last season. Harvest is progressing, however, a quarantine on fresh fruit movement has been imposed on areas in the Rio Grande Valley because of the emergence of the Sapote fruit fly. Arizona's grapefruit forecast remains at 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons), 37 percent less than last season's final utilization. Good size and excellent quality are reported. Tangerines: The 2002-03 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 356,000 tons, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but 15 percent below last season's utilization of 420,000 tons. Florida's is up 4 percent, at 5.20 million boxes (247,000 tons) but 21 percent lower than last season's utilization. Harvest of the early varieties is complete while the late season Honey variety harvest continued. The 2002-03 Florida tangerine forecast only includes the Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey tangerines. It does not include the Robinson and Dancy varieties as in previous seasons. This program change was implemented because of the declassification of Robinson and Dancy tangerines by the Florida Citrus Commission. California's forecast of tangerine production at 2.50 million boxes (94,000 tons), is unchanged from the January forecast but 14 percent above last season's utilized production. No major problems have been reported to date. Shape is normal with overall quality and flavor reported as very good. The Arizona tangerine forecast of 400,000 boxes (15,000 tons) is down 11 percent from the previous forecast and 35 percent below last season. Fruit size is average with fair quality reported. Lemons: The 2002-03 U.S. lemon crop is forecast at 984,000 tons, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and 19 percent above last season. California production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes (874,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 21 percent above the 2001-02 season. Harvest is underway in all areas of the State. Fruit quality is good but quality in some areas has suffered because of wind damage. The 2002-03 Arizona lemon forecast is 2.90 million boxes (110,000 tons), up 4 percent from both the previous forecast and last season. Harvest is continuing with fair quality and large fruit size reported. Tangelos: Florida's 2002-03 tangelo forecast is final at 2.35 million boxes (106,000 tons), down 2 percent from the previous month but 9 percent more than last season's utilized production. Utilization is higher than the previous three seasons, but below any others since 1968-69. Temples: Florida's Temples are forecast at 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons) for the 2002-03 season, down 7 percent from March and 16 percent below last season. If realized, this forecast would be the second lowest utilization in the series since it began in 1951-52. The 2000-01 utilized production, at 1.25 million boxes, is the smallest crop on record. K-Early Citrus: K-Early citrus has been dropped from the citrus estimation program. This fruit type has been declassified by the Florida Citrus Commission and forecasts have been discontinued. Florida Citrus: Rainfall during March was plentiful, resulting in most of Florida's citrus producing counties reporting above average rainfall and excellent surface soil moisture. Virtually all healthy citrus trees are in very good condition. Cold weather in January and February resulted in citrus trees reaching near ideal physical condition for the bloom period. Warm, moist weather launched the bloom cycle into full swing the first two weeks of March with bloom tapering off the latter part of the month. This year's bloom is observed as one of the most prolific blooms in recent history. Harvest of early and midseason oranges is virtually complete. Some picking crews were switched to harvest Valencia oranges for both fresh and processing markets with other crews moved to harvest grapefruit on the lower east coast. Temple and tangelo harvest is virtually complete. Several fresh fruit packinghouses and juice plants closed in early March due to lack of mature fruit. These plants reopened at the end of the month as Valencia oranges became available. Caretakers have been very busy mowing, chopping, and discing cover crops to help generate new growth and bloom during the month. Post bloom nutritional sprays were being applied in groves with complete petal drop. Hedging and topping were reported throughout the State in groves where harvest was complete. Texas Citrus: Harvest is well underway for all citrus. Fruit quality is good but some oversized fruit is poorly shaped. Postharvest decay is also being reported. Movement of fresh oranges and grapefruit in parts of the Rio Grande Valley is limited due to a quarantine resulting from the discovery of the Sapote fruit fly. California Citrus: Navel orange harvest continued throughout the month. Quality remained good, but some quality decline occurred due to puff, crease, high color, soft fruit, and rind staining. Harvest of early variety Valencia oranges began in some areas of the Central Valley. Marsh Ruby and Rio Red grapefruit were harvested in the desert areas, while the Pummelo harvest continued in the Central Valley. Lemons were picked throughout the month. Irrigation, pruning, soil amendments, and foliar nutrient applications were underway in some harvested citrus groves. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities, including fungicide, insecticide, and herbicide applications, irrigation, and cultivation, continued in many tree fruit orchards. Bloom continued throughout March in late variety stone fruit orchards. Developing fruit were visible in many early variety stone fruit orchards by the end of the month. Rainfall in parts of the Central Valley during early March knocked off some blooms. A few growers in the Central Valley began thinning fruit in apricot and plum orchards. Girdling activities were also undertaken in a few plum orchards to improve fruit size. Central Valley apple, cherry, and pear orchards began showing blooms by month's end. Swelling buds and newly opened green shoots appeared in many grape vineyards by mid-month as vines responded to the warm, sunny weather. Many growers cultivated and irrigated vineyards to avoid potential damage from cold nighttime temperatures. Removal of vineyards and planting of new tree fruit orchards continued across the State. Strawberry fields in the Central Valley were in full bloom by month's end. Fruit set appeared good. Pruning and brush shredding continued in olive orchards. Buds were forming in many avocado orchards. Most almond orchards were fully leafed and developing well by month's end. Early variety walnut orchards started to leaf out and develop flower clusters during the last week in March. Blight spray treatments continued in walnut orchards. Winter Potatoes: Production of 2003 winter potatoes in California and Florida combined for an estimated 4.15 million cwt, the same as the January forecast but 1 percent below last year. Area for harvest, at 14,800 acres, is down 6 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 281 cwt per acre, is up 13 cwt from a year ago. Since the January forecast, a 15 percent gain in California's yield per acre was offset by fewer acres for harvest and lower yields in Florida. California winter harvest has made normal progress with no setbacks from weather or pests. The Florida acreage estimate was reduced by 700 acres from the January total while March rains contributed to reduced average yield. Spring Potatoes: Spring production in 2003 is forecast at 23.7 million cwt, up 2 percent from last year. Area for harvest is estimated at 83,800 acres, down 3 percent from 2002. The average yield is forecast at 282 cwt per acre, up 11 cwt from a year ago. Spring potato production in Florida is forecast at 7.82 million cwt, down 1 percent from a year ago. Total spring harvested acreage is up 4 percent but average yield is 14 cwt per acre below last year. Warm temperatures in February and March helped crop development although frequent March rains have reduced yield potential in some fields. Harvest is expected to begin in 2 to 3 weeks. North Carolina's spring potato crop is forecast at 2.81 million cwt, down 21 percent from last year. Wet soils have delayed planting with about 78 percent of the crop in the ground as of April 6 compared with a 5 year average of 96 percent. Area for harvest is expected to be down 19 percent from a year ago, with yields falling an average of 5 cwt per acre. Some of the early planted fields have emerged. Texas producers report near perfect weather so far this season. Spring potato production is forecast at 3.00 million cwt, up 47 percent from last season. Acreage for harvest has increased 4 percent and the average yield is expected to gain 70 cwt per acre. Arizona growers report a 3 percent increase in acreage for harvest and expect a 10 cwt per acre yield increase over last year. Production is forecast at 2.24 million cwt, up 6 percent from last year. California's spring production forecast, at 7.79 million cwt, is 1 percent above last year. Yield is forecast at 410 cwt per acre, up 5 cwt from a year ago. Summer Potatoes, 2002 Revisions: The final estimate of 2002 crop summer potato production is 18.0 million cwt, down 3 percent from the preliminary estimate in the January Annual Crop Production Summary, and 1 percent below 2001. Harvested area covered 59,100 acres, down 1 percent from the January estimate, but up 1 percent from 2001. The average yield of 304 cwt per acre is down 5 cwt from the January preliminary estimate. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 4.02 million pounds for March, up 6 percent from last month and 19 percent above a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,255 acres, 8 percent above February 2003 but 9 percent below last March. Harvested area totaled 1,735 acres, up 15 percent from last month but 10 percent below March 2002. Weather conditions in March were mostly dry with only light scattered showers occurring. Reliability of April 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.2 percent. Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 184,000 tons, ranging from 1,000 tons to 716,000 tons. The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times. The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats (202) 690-3234 Roy Karkosh - Barley, Sorghum, Sugar Crops (202) 690-8140 Terry O'Connor - Weekly Crop Weather (202) 720-4288 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Arvin Budge - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250 Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on May 12, 2003. 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