Cr Pr 2-2 (10-03) a Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 10, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. ************************************************************************** Update Alert Page 4 has been updated. Sorghum planted acres for Mississippi has been corrected. The U.S. total was correct. ************************************************************************* Corn Production Up 3 Percent from September Forecast Soybean Production Down 7 Percent Cotton Production Up 4 Percent from September Forecast Orange Production Up 18 Percent from Last Season Corn production is forecast at 10.2 billion bushels, up 3 percent from last month and 13 percent above 2002. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 142.2 bushels per acre, up 3.7 bushels from September and up 12.2 bushels from last year. If realized, both production and yield would be the largest ever. Both records were set in 1994 when production was estimated at 10.1 billion bushels and the yield was 138.6 bushels per acre. Yields turned out to be higher than expected across much of the Corn Belt and central Great Plains as farmers began to harvest their crops. Producers are now realizing that the hot, dry conditions during August did not have as much negative impact on yields as originally thought. Based on Farm Service Agency administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States and farmers now expect to harvest 71.8 million acres of corn for grain, down 50,000 acres from September but up 4 percent from 2002. Soybean production is forecast at 2.47 billion bushels, down 7 percent from the September forecast and 10 percent below 2002. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1996. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 34.0 bushels per acre, down 2.4 bushels from September and down 4.0 bushels from 2002. With harvest underway, yields are lower than last month in the Corn Belt and northern Great Plains reflecting the impact of the hot, dry conditions in August and continued mostly dry weather during September. However, excellent growing conditions continue to support higher yields in the Delta States, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Based on Farm Service Agency administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States and now area planted is estimated at 73.6 million acres, down 68,000 acres from the August estimate. Area for harvest is forecast at 72.5 million acres, down 88,000 acres from September, but up fractionally from the 2002 acreage. Revised 2002 soybean acres, yield, and production were published in the September 30, 2003 Grain Stocks report. All cotton production is forecast at 17.6 million 480-pound bales, up 4 percent from last month and 2 percent above last year's production. Yield is expected to average 696 pounds per acre, up 29 pounds from last month. Ten of the 17 cotton estimating States are expecting a higher production forecast than a month ago. Harvested area, at 12.1 million acres, is down 1 percent from last month due to an acreage decrease in Texas. This decrease was due to the southern High Plains area being hit by one of the worst late season hail storms. The U.S. all orange initial forecast for the 2003-04 crop is 13.6 million tons, up 18 percent from last season's final utilization. This near record level production is second only to the 1997-98 season of 13.7 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast is a record high 252 million boxes (11.3 million tons). This estimate is 24 percent above last season and 3 percent more than the previous record high of 244 million boxes in 1997-98. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 137 million boxes (6.17 million tons), 22 percent above last season's final utilization. The Valencia forecast is a record high 115 million boxes (5.18 million tons), 26 percent above the previous season and 11 percent above the previous record high of 104 million boxes produced during the 1997-98 season. Trees are in excellent condition as a result of above average rainfall. Multiple flushes of new growth were observed all summer. Tropical storms brought heavy rains but no damaging winds. Current fruit sizes are larger than the 10-season average. Average fruit per tree is up over 28 percent from last season reflecting the heavy bloom period and excellent weather conditions throughout the year. Combined with bearing trees, the resulting fruit population is up 25 percent from last season. This high fruit per tree count and the above average fruit size is combining to create the record high production. California's all orange forecast for October is 59.0 million boxes (2.21 million tons), down 5 percent from last season's final utilization. The Navel orange forecast is carried forward from September at 39.0 million boxes (1.46 million tons) and is 5 percent below the 2002-03 crop. Lighter fruit sets have been observed but overall sizes are expected to be larger than last season. The initial forecast for Valencia oranges is 20.0 million boxes (750,000 tons), down 5 percent from the previous season. The crop is progressing normally. California Valencia growers are reducing acreage in response to market pressures and expanding urbanization. The Texas initial forecast for the 2003-04 all orange crop is 1.55 million boxes (66,000 tons), down 1 percent from last season's final utilization. Arizona's 2003-04 all orange crop is 470,000 boxes, unchanged from the 2002-03 final utilization. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2003-04 season is forecast at 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is slightly higher than the final yield for the 2002-03 season of 1.54 gallons per box as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. Projected yield for the 2003-04 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production Report. This report was approved on October 10, 2003. Acting Secretary of Agriculture J. B. Penn Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Apples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Beans, Dry Edible . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Canola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Corn for Grain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Ears Per Acre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Cumulative Bolls Counts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Grapes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Hay, Alfalfa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Peanuts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Pecans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Potatoes, Winter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . . . . . . 46 Rice, by State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 By Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Selected Crops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Sorghum for Grain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Soybeans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet . . . . . . . . . . 32 Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Sunflowers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Acres by Variety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Tobacco, by State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 By Class and Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2003 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Corn : Sorghum : Soybeans State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- :Planted 1/:Harvested 2/:Planted 1/:Harvested 2/:Planted 1/:Harvested 2/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : AL : 230 210 12 7 170 155 AZ : 45 22 18 7 AR : 360 350 230 215 2,900 2,850 CA : 520 130 18 13 CO : 1,090 940 270 210 CT : 30 DE : 170 160 2 1 180 175 FL : 85 28 13 12 GA : 350 310 50 30 190 180 ID : 200 50 IL : 11,200 11,050 110 105 10,400 10,350 IN : 5,650 5,450 5,450 5,350 IA : 12,300 12,000 10,600 10,550 KS : 2,900 2,650 3,600 3,100 2,600 2,500 KY : 1,190 1,090 35 33 1,270 1,250 LA : 520 500 170 165 760 730 ME : 26 MD : 480 400 6 4 430 420 MA : 22 MI : 2,300 2,050 2,000 1,990 MN : 7,200 6,650 7,500 7,400 MS : 550 530 85 83 1,460 1,410 MO : 2,900 2,800 220 210 5,000 4,950 MT : 60 15 NE : 8,100 7,750 650 510 4,550 4,500 NV : 4 NH : 16 NJ : 80 67 90 88 NM : 130 40 140 90 NY : 1,050 460 145 142 NC : 740 640 18 13 1,460 1,390 ND : 1,450 1,250 3,150 3,100 OH : 3,400 3,150 4,300 4,280 OK : 230 200 330 250 270 255 OR : 65 30 PA : 1,450 900 14 4 370 365 RI : 2 SC : 270 250 7 4 430 410 SD : 4,500 4,100 270 150 4,250 4,200 TN : 710 650 45 41 1,180 1,150 TX : 1,850 1,600 3,200 2,600 200 180 UT : 55 13 VT : 96 VA : 480 275 9 6 500 480 WA : 130 80 WV : 45 27 17 16 WI : 3,750 2,850 1,750 1,710 WY : 85 48 : US : 79,066 71,765 9,509 7,851 73,585 72,538 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from the August 2003 "Crop Production" report. 2/ Updated from the September 2003 "Crop Production" report. Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Canola : Sunflower : : :----------------------------------------------------- : : : Oil : Non Oil : All :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CO : 95 75 35 32 130 107 KS : 170 160 20 19 190 179 MN : 60 57 55 52 35 33 90 85 NE : 52 50 15 14 67 64 ND : 1,000 970 1,070 1,050 160 155 1,230 1,205 SD : 475 470 30 29 505 499 TX : 15 13 42 40 57 53 : Oth : Sts 2/: 61 58 78 70 17 12 95 82 : US : 1,121 1,085 2,010 1,940 354 334 2,364 2,274 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from the June 2003 "Acreage" report. 2/ Other States for canola include AL, AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, KS, MI, MT, NY, OR, PA, SC, SD, and WA. Other States for Sunflowers include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY. Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2003 : : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels -------- --- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 180 210 88.0 112.0 112.0 15,840 23,520 AR : 260 350 134.0 140.0 140.0 34,840 49,000 CA : 150 130 170.0 170.0 170.0 25,500 22,100 CO : 720 940 156.0 147.0 148.0 112,320 139,120 DE : 167 160 83.0 138.0 138.0 13,861 22,080 GA : 290 310 115.0 135.0 135.0 33,350 41,850 IL : 11,000 11,050 136.0 154.0 169.0 1,496,000 1,867,450 IN : 5,220 5,450 121.0 145.0 148.0 631,620 806,600 IA : 11,900 12,000 165.0 154.0 156.0 1,963,500 1,872,000 KS : 2,500 2,650 116.0 120.0 123.0 290,000 325,950 KY : 1,040 1,090 102.0 136.0 140.0 106,080 152,600 LA : 560 500 122.0 140.0 135.0 68,320 67,500 MD : 425 400 76.0 133.0 131.0 32,300 52,400 MI : 2,020 2,050 115.0 129.0 129.0 232,300 264,450 MN : 6,700 6,650 157.0 151.0 143.0 1,051,900 950,950 MS : 530 530 125.0 130.0 130.0 66,250 68,900 MO : 2,700 2,800 105.0 101.0 109.0 283,500 305,200 NE : 7,350 7,750 128.0 137.0 143.0 940,800 1,108,250 NJ : 70 67 58.0 110.0 110.0 4,060 7,370 NM : 49 40 180.0 170.0 170.0 8,820 6,800 NY : 450 460 97.0 115.0 112.0 43,650 51,520 NC : 700 640 83.0 110.0 110.0 58,100 70,400 ND : 995 1,250 115.0 104.0 100.0 114,425 125,000 OH : 2,870 3,150 88.0 145.0 154.0 252,560 485,100 OK : 190 200 130.0 130.0 125.0 24,700 25,000 PA : 870 900 68.0 122.0 120.0 59,160 108,000 SC : 260 250 46.0 114.0 112.0 11,960 28,000 SD : 3,200 4,100 95.0 105.0 105.0 304,000 430,500 TN : 620 650 107.0 130.0 132.0 66,340 85,800 TX : 1,820 1,600 113.0 111.0 111.0 205,660 177,600 VA : 305 275 66.0 130.0 130.0 20,130 35,750 WA : 70 80 190.0 195.0 195.0 13,300 15,600 WI : 2,900 2,850 135.0 131.0 134.0 391,500 381,900 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 232 233 133.7 137.3 141.1 31,013 32,881 : US : 69,313 71,765 130.0 138.5 142.2 9,007,659 10,207,141 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, FL, ID, MT, OR, UT, WV, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary". Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2003 : : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- 1,000 Bushels : AR : 230 215 77.0 85.0 86.0 17,710 18,490 CO : 90 210 20.0 30.0 32.0 1,800 6,720 IL : 77 105 83.0 85.0 85.0 6,391 8,925 KS : 3,000 3,100 45.0 43.0 43.0 135,000 133,300 LA : 165 165 81.0 82.0 85.0 13,365 14,025 MO : 185 210 85.0 75.0 71.0 15,725 14,910 NE : 300 510 50.0 53.0 59.0 15,000 30,090 NM : 80 90 35.0 35.0 35.0 2,800 3,150 OK : 330 250 45.0 38.0 34.0 14,850 8,500 SD : 90 150 34.0 52.0 52.0 3,060 7,800 TX : 2,550 2,600 51.0 54.0 52.0 130,050 135,200 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 202 246 69.3 78.1 79.4 14,007 19,543 : US : 7,299 7,851 50.7 51.0 51.0 369,758 400,653 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AL, AZ, CA, DE, GA, KY, MD, MS, NC, PA, SC, TN, and VA. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary". Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 2003 : : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Pounds -------- ---- 1,000 Cwt --- : AR : 1,503 1,454 6,440 6,550 6,550 96,752 95,237 CA : 528 495 8,140 8,000 7,900 42,989 39,105 LA : 535 445 5,500 5,800 5,800 29,400 25,810 MS : 253 233 6,400 6,450 6,500 16,192 15,145 MO : 182 170 6,050 6,100 6,100 11,011 10,370 TX : 206 181 7,100 6,700 6,400 14,616 11,584 : US : 3,207 2,978 6,578 6,655 6,624 210,960 197,251 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Sweet rice acreage included in 2003, but not previous years. Rice: Production by Class, United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain 1/ : All : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 2001 : 167,555 46,105 1,610 215,270 2002 : 157,243 52,201 1,516 210,960 2003 2/ : 145,294 49,214 2,743 197,251 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Sweet rice production included with short grain in 2003, but not previous years. 2/ Indicated October 1, 2003, rice class estimates are based on a 5-year average of class percentages. Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2003 : : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 155 155 24.0 31.0 31.0 3,720 4,805 AR : 2,880 2,850 33.5 34.0 35.0 96,480 99,750 DE : 185 175 25.0 34.0 36.0 4,625 6,300 GA : 140 180 21.0 33.0 33.0 2,940 5,940 IL : 10,550 10,350 43.0 42.0 37.0 453,650 382,950 IN : 5,770 5,350 41.5 43.0 40.0 239,455 214,000 IA : 10,400 10,550 48.0 39.0 34.0 499,200 358,700 KS : 2,540 2,500 23.0 20.0 22.0 58,420 55,000 KY : 1,260 1,250 33.0 38.0 40.0 41,580 50,000 LA : 660 730 32.0 32.0 34.0 21,120 24,820 MD : 470 420 23.0 33.0 36.0 10,810 15,120 MI : 2,040 1,990 38.5 38.0 32.0 78,540 63,680 MN : 7,100 7,400 43.5 37.0 32.0 308,850 236,800 MS : 1,370 1,410 32.0 34.0 36.0 43,840 50,760 MO : 5,000 4,950 34.0 29.0 28.0 170,000 138,600 NE : 4,580 4,500 38.5 39.0 39.0 176,330 175,500 NJ : 97 88 23.0 33.0 30.0 2,231 2,640 NY : 144 142 32.0 38.0 37.0 4,608 5,254 NC : 1,290 1,390 24.0 28.0 30.0 30,960 41,700 ND : 2,630 3,100 33.0 29.0 28.0 86,790 86,800 OH : 4,720 4,280 31.0 42.0 41.0 146,320 175,480 OK : 250 255 26.0 21.0 25.0 6,500 6,375 PA : 390 365 26.0 40.0 40.0 10,140 14,600 SC : 415 410 17.0 25.0 24.0 7,055 9,840 SD : 4,090 4,200 31.0 30.0 30.0 126,790 126,000 TN : 1,120 1,150 31.0 36.0 38.0 34,720 43,700 TX : 205 180 28.0 26.0 26.0 5,740 4,680 VA : 440 480 23.0 34.0 34.0 10,120 16,320 WI : 1,520 1,710 44.0 36.0 30.0 66,880 51,300 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 26 28 35.6 33.2 34.9 926 976 : US : 72,437 72,538 38.0 36.4 34.0 2,749,340 2,468,390 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include FL and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary". Sunflowers: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2001-2002 1/ and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Varietal : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Type & :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 2/ : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : Oil : CO : 60 75 650 136,800 39,000 KS : 155 160 900 348,000 139,500 MN : 37 52 1,450 39,200 53,650 NE : 34 50 500 50,000 17,000 ND : 1,105 1,050 1,310 1,202,400 1,447,550 SD : 375 470 850 932,010 318,750 TX : 9 13 800 36,300 7,200 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 40 70 1,178 58,994 47,130 : US : 1,815 1,940 1,140 2,803,704 2,069,780 : Non-Oil : CO : 20 32 1,050 71,300 21,000 KS : 13 19 930 43,890 12,090 MN : 27 33 1,200 35,000 32,400 NE : 11 14 700 33,350 7,700 ND : 210 155 1,250 270,900 262,500 SD : 55 29 1,000 63,800 55,000 TX : 20 40 1,000 84,000 20,000 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 9 12 1,015 12,815 9,136 : US : 365 334 1,150 615,055 419,826 : All : CO : 80 107 750 1,020 208,100 60,000 109,140 KS : 168 179 902 1,250 391,890 151,590 223,750 MN : 64 85 1,345 1,405 74,200 86,050 119,425 NE : 45 64 549 1,080 83,350 24,700 69,120 ND : 1,315 1,205 1,300 1,200 1,473,300 1,710,050 1,446,000 SD : 430 499 869 1,000 995,810 373,750 499,000 TX : 29 53 938 1,000 120,300 27,200 53,000 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 49 82 1,148 1,220 71,809 56,266 100,062 : US : 2,180 2,274 1,142 1,152 3,418,759 2,489,606 2,619,497 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 Revised. 2/ 2003 yield and production estimates for oil and non-oil varieties will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary". 3/ Other States include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY. Sunflowers: Area Planted by Varietal Type, State and United States, 2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Varietal Type State :----------------------------------------------------------- : Oil : Non-Oil : All -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CO : 95 35 130 KS : 200 15 215 MN : 40 30 70 NE : 47 13 60 ND : 1,150 220 1,370 SD : 535 105 640 TX : 10 25 35 : Oth Sts 2/ : 48 12 60 : US : 2,125 455 2,580 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. 2/ Other States include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY. Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 2003 : : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres -- --------- Pounds -------- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : Al : 185.0 189.0 2,050 2,900 2,900 379,250 548,100 FL : 86.0 107.0 2,300 2,900 2,900 197,800 310,300 GA : 505.0 535.0 2,600 3,200 3,200 1,313,000 1,712,000 NM : 18.0 17.0 3,000 2,900 2,900 54,000 49,300 NC : 100.0 100.0 2,100 2,900 2,800 210,000 280,000 OK : 57.0 38.0 2,800 2,900 2,900 159,600 110,200 SC : 8.7 18.0 2,200 3,200 3,200 19,140 57,600 TX : 280.0 240.0 3,100 3,400 3,300 868,000 792,000 VA : 57.0 33.0 2,100 2,800 2,800 119,700 92,400 : US : 1,296.7 1,277.0 2,561 3,121 3,095 3,320,490 3,951,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Canola: Area Harvested, Yield and Production by State and United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : MN : 45 57 850 1,900 88,500 38,250 108,300 ND : 1,160 970 1,230 1,400 1,799,000 1,426,800 1,358,000 : Oth Sts 1/ : 70 58 1,250 1,369 111,015 87,470 79,409 : US : 1,275 1,085 1,218 1,425 1,998,515 1,552,520 1,545,709 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, KS, MI, MT, NY, OR, PA, SC, SD, and WA. Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 2003 : : State : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 540.0 510.0 507 706 753 570.0 800.0 AZ : 213.0 208.0 1,381 1,315 1,292 613.0 560.0 AR : 920.0 940.0 871 804 837 1,669.0 1,640.0 CA : 477.0 555.0 1,469 1,297 1,384 1,460.0 1,600.0 GA : 1,360.0 1,290.0 557 733 763 1,578.0 2,050.0 LA : 495.0 520.0 717 738 877 739.0 950.0 MS : 1,150.0 1,100.0 808 851 916 1,935.0 2,100.0 MO : 368.0 390.0 796 689 738 610.0 600.0 NM : 50.0 42.0 816 857 857 85.0 75.0 NC : 920.0 770.0 421 623 623 806.0 1,000.0 OK : 180.0 170.0 557 452 480 209.0 170.0 SC : 200.0 217.0 314 719 719 131.0 325.0 TN : 530.0 535.0 741 709 763 818.0 850.0 TX : 4,500.0 4,400.0 538 437 436 5,040.0 4,000.0 VA : 98.0 85.0 465 734 678 95.0 120.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 183.0 207.0 452 645 645 172.3 278.0 : US :12,184.0 11,939.0 651 659 688 16,530.3 17,118.0 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 8.2 3.9 1,013 1,169 1,108 17.3 9.0 CA : 209.0 139.0 1,386 1,278 1,312 603.3 380.0 NM : 7.1 6.0 1,041 880 960 15.4 12.0 TX : 18.3 19.5 1,110 985 985 42.3 40.0 : US : 242.6 168.4 1,342 1,227 1,257 678.3 441.0 : All : AL : 540.0 510.0 507 706 753 570.0 800.0 AZ : 221.2 211.9 1,368 1,313 1,289 630.3 569.0 AR : 920.0 940.0 871 804 837 1,669.0 1,640.0 CA : 686.0 694.0 1,444 1,293 1,369 2,063.3 1,980.0 GA : 1,360.0 1,290.0 557 733 763 1,578.0 2,050.0 LA : 495.0 520.0 717 738 877 739.0 950.0 MS : 1,150.0 1,100.0 808 851 916 1,935.0 2,100.0 MO : 368.0 390.0 796 689 738 610.0 600.0 NM : 57.1 48.0 844 860 870 100.4 87.0 NC : 920.0 770.0 421 623 623 806.0 1,000.0 OK : 180.0 170.0 557 452 480 209.0 170.0 SC : 200.0 217.0 314 719 719 131.0 325.0 TN : 530.0 535.0 741 709 763 818.0 850.0 TX : 4,518.3 4,419.5 540 440 439 5,082.3 4,040.0 VA : 98.0 85.0 465 734 678 95.0 120.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 183.0 207.0 452 645 645 172.3 278.0 : US :12,426.6 12,107.4 665 667 696 17,208.6 17,559.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3/ Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary". Cottonseed: Production, United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 7,452.2 6,183.9 6,446.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : AZ : 230 245 8.10 8.00 1,720 1,863 1,960 CA : 1,140 1,090 7.10 7.00 7,272 8,094 7,630 CO : 780 750 2.90 4.00 3,610 2,262 3,000 ID : 1,250 1,200 4.00 4.00 4,368 5,000 4,800 IL : 450 450 3.60 3.90 1,950 1,620 1,755 IN : 280 330 3.30 3.60 1,320 924 1,188 IA : 1,250 1,380 3.90 4.00 4,625 4,875 5,520 KS : 950 950 3.70 3.80 4,140 3,515 3,610 KY : 300 300 3.00 3.40 925 900 1,020 MI : 900 750 3.50 3.20 3,240 3,150 2,400 MN : 1,600 1,450 3.30 2.90 5,075 5,280 4,205 MO : 460 450 3.00 3.10 1,373 1,380 1,395 MT : 1,400 1,650 2.10 2.10 3,045 2,940 3,465 NE : 1,350 1,450 3.00 3.45 5,148 4,050 5,003 NV : 275 265 4.30 4.60 1,193 1,183 1,219 NM : 260 250 5.60 5.30 1,350 1,456 1,325 NY : 570 600 2.30 2.70 1,568 1,311 1,620 ND : 1,450 1,550 1.30 1.80 3,360 1,885 2,790 OH : 590 580 3.00 3.70 1,995 1,770 2,146 OK : 340 310 3.50 3.40 945 1,190 1,054 OR : 475 460 4.30 4.60 1,978 2,043 2,116 PA : 680 700 2.60 3.10 1,675 1,768 2,170 SD : 2,400 2,600 1.40 2.00 6,600 3,360 5,200 TX : 130 140 5.00 4.70 637 650 658 UT : 560 545 3.60 4.00 2,200 2,016 2,180 VA : 120 130 2.50 3.50 341 300 455 WA : 490 490 5.00 5.20 2,256 2,450 2,548 WI : 1,650 1,600 2.80 2.30 4,250 4,620 3,680 WY : 500 600 2.30 2.60 1,276 1,150 1,560 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 305 276 2.69 3.08 892 819 851 : US : 23,135 23,541 3.19 3.34 80,327 73,824 78,523 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AR, CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NC, RI, TN, VT, and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary". All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : AL : 800 780 2.20 2.10 2,392 1,760 1,638 AR : 1,350 1,320 2.60 2.40 2,730 3,510 3,168 CA : 500 470 3.00 3.20 1,643 1,500 1,504 CO : 570 850 1.30 1.70 1,170 741 1,445 GA : 650 630 2.60 2.70 1,950 1,690 1,701 ID : 320 300 1.90 1.80 570 608 540 IL : 350 350 2.10 2.50 720 735 875 IN : 320 320 2.10 2.50 728 672 800 IA : 350 320 2.20 2.00 940 770 640 KS : 2,300 2,150 1.50 1.60 3,840 3,450 3,440 KY : 2,100 2,200 2.20 2.50 4,620 4,620 5,500 LA : 450 400 2.50 2.90 1,260 1,125 1,160 MI : 250 250 2.20 2.00 550 550 500 MN : 700 750 1.90 1.70 1,120 1,330 1,275 MS : 750 750 2.50 2.30 1,950 1,875 1,725 MO : 3,800 3,950 1.70 1.90 6,480 6,460 7,505 MT : 1,200 1,000 1.40 1.30 1,400 1,680 1,300 NE : 1,900 1,850 1.00 1.25 2,430 1,900 2,313 NY : 1,150 1,000 2.10 2.50 1,980 2,415 2,500 NC : 730 760 1.50 2.80 1,518 1,095 2,128 ND : 1,850 1,400 1.10 1.30 1,705 2,035 1,820 OH : 900 770 2.20 2.50 2,280 1,980 1,925 OK : 2,400 2,300 1.60 1.80 3,080 3,840 4,140 OR : 620 590 2.20 2.20 1,074 1,364 1,298 PA : 1,120 1,200 1.60 2.20 1,764 1,792 2,640 SD : 1,600 1,900 0.90 1.20 2,550 1,440 2,280 TN : 2,000 1,950 2.20 2.60 4,620 4,400 5,070 TX : 5,500 5,400 2.40 2.00 10,200 13,200 10,800 VA : 1,250 1,150 1.40 2.60 2,400 1,750 2,990 WA : 320 310 2.80 3.00 832 896 930 WV : 520 540 1.80 2.00 954 936 1,080 WI : 400 450 1.80 1.50 540 720 675 WY : 450 580 1.00 1.30 605 450 754 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,892 1,898 2.03 2.17 3,842 3,849 4,124 : US : 41,362 40,838 1.86 2.01 76,437 77,138 82,183 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, CT, DE, FL, ME, MD, MA, NV, NH, NJ, NM, RI, SC, UT, and VT. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary". Dry Edible Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 2/ : Production 2/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : CA : 89.0 74.0 1,980 2,000 1,496 1,762 1,480 CO : 70.0 55.0 2,170 1,500 1,785 1,519 825 ID : 93.0 78.0 2,050 2,050 1,424 1,907 1,599 KS : 14.5 11.0 1,100 1,700 259 160 187 MI : 265.0 190.0 1,850 1,500 780 4,903 2,850 MN : 150.0 130.0 1,650 1,600 1,575 2,475 2,080 MT 3/ : 23.0 17.0 1,570 1,920 376 361 326 NE : 165.0 140.0 2,100 2,100 3,185 3,465 2,940 NM 3/ : 8.0 10.0 1,800 1,900 300 144 190 NY : 24.5 24.5 1,360 1,800 194 333 441 ND : 690.0 570.0 1,540 1,520 6,200 10,626 8,664 OR 3/ : 9.1 7.8 1,730 1,500 172 157 117 SD : 16.0 16.0 1,630 1,700 270 261 272 TX : 32.5 25.0 970 1,300 348 315 325 UT 3/ : 0.3 5.0 1,670 300 17 5 15 WA : 41.0 26.0 2,000 1,700 578 820 442 WI 3/ : 7.0 6.5 1,960 2,000 110 137 130 WY : 29.0 32.0 2,150 2,250 514 624 720 : US : 1,726.9 1,417.8 1,736 1,665 19,583 29,974 23,603 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2/ Cleaned basis. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Winter Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 9.0 8.5 9.0 8.5 FL : 6.8 6.1 6.7 5.8 : US : 15.8 14.6 15.7 14.3 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- Cwt -------- ------ 1,000 Cwt ------ : CA : 270 310 2,430 2,635 FL : 265 240 1,776 1,392 : US : 268 282 4,206 4,027 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Acres ----- ---- Pounds --- ------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : CT : 1,890 2,200 1,672 1,705 3,772 3,161 3,750 FL : 4,600 4,300 2,600 2,500 11,700 11,960 10,750 GA : 26,500 29,000 2,100 2,200 64,206 55,650 63,800 IN : 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,050 9,450 8,000 8,200 KY : 111,100 105,300 2,007 2,179 254,653 222,991 229,480 MD : 1,700 1,500 1,400 1,400 3,300 2,380 2,100 MA : 1,160 1,250 1,623 1,718 1,807 1,883 2,148 MO 1/ : 1,300 1,200 2,385 1,900 3,081 3,101 2,280 NC : 168,300 160,000 2,067 1,946 386,920 347,920 311,400 OH : 5,500 5,300 1,750 1,800 11,956 9,625 9,540 PA : 3,400 3,700 2,004 2,130 6,166 6,815 7,880 SC : 30,500 32,000 1,950 2,100 78,400 59,475 67,200 TN : 35,900 34,040 2,096 2,255 86,893 75,261 76,770 VA : 30,000 26,270 2,225 1,633 63,415 66,747 42,905 WV 1/ : 1,300 1,200 1,500 1,650 1,885 1,950 1,980 WI : 1,510 1,750 2,526 2,351 3,619 3,815 4,115 : US : 428,660 413,010 2,055 2,044 991,223 880,734 844,298 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 43,000 40,000 2,225 1,900 95,675 76,000 VA : 22,000 19,000 2,340 1,650 51,480 31,350 US : 65,000 59,000 2,264 1,819 147,155 107,350 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 98,000 94,000 2,020 2,000 197,960 188,000 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 21,000 20,000 2,135 1,950 44,835 39,000 SC : 30,500 32,000 1,950 2,100 59,475 67,200 US : 51,500 52,000 2,025 2,042 104,310 106,200 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 4,600 4,300 2,600 2,500 11,960 10,750 GA : 26,500 29,000 2,100 2,200 55,650 63,800 US : 31,100 33,300 2,174 2,239 67,610 74,550 Total 11-14 : 245,600 238,300 2,105 1,998 517,035 476,100 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 730 700 2,015 1,500 1,471 1,050 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 2,450 2,500 3,160 3,200 7,742 8,000 TN : 5,000 5,100 3,110 3,000 15,550 15,300 US : 7,450 7,600 3,126 3,066 23,292 23,300 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 2,400 2,400 3,650 3,500 8,760 8,400 TN : 390 400 3,550 3,300 1,385 1,320 US : 2,790 2,800 3,636 3,471 10,145 9,720 Total 21-23 : 10,970 11,100 3,182 3,069 34,908 34,070 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,050 8,000 8,200 KY : 103,000 97,000 1,915 2,100 197,245 203,700 MO 1/ : 1,300 1,200 2,385 1,900 3,101 2,280 NC : 6,300 6,000 1,500 1,400 9,450 8,400 OH : 5,500 5,300 1,750 1,800 9,625 9,540 TN : 30,000 28,000 1,900 2,100 57,000 58,800 VA : 7,200 6,500 1,900 1,600 13,680 10,400 WV 1/ : 1,300 1,200 1,500 1,650 1,950 1,980 US : 158,600 149,200 1,892 2,033 300,051 303,300 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 1,700 1,500 1,400 1,400 2,380 2,100 PA : 1,300 1,300 1,850 2,000 2,405 2,600 US : 3,000 2,800 1,595 1,679 4,785 4,700 Total 31-32 : 161,600 152,000 1,886 2,026 304,836 308,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark : Air-cured : Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 2,100 2,200 3,000 2,900 6,300 6,380 TN : 510 540 2,600 2,500 1,326 1,350 US : 2,610 2,740 2,922 2,821 7,626 7,730 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 1,150 1,200 2,560 2,500 2,944 3,000 Type 37, VA Sun-cured: Belt : VA : 70 70 1,655 1,500 116 105 Total 35-37 : 3,830 4,010 2,790 2,702 10,686 10,835 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 2,100 2,400 2,100 2,200 4,410 5,280 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT : 1,250 1,500 1,820 1,800 2,275 2,700 MA : 850 950 1,840 1,850 1,564 1,758 US : 2,100 2,450 1,828 1,820 3,839 4,458 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI: WI : 1,200 1,350 2,625 2,500 3,150 3,375 Type 55, Northern WI: WI : 310 400 2,145 1,850 665 740 Total 54-55 : 1,510 1,750 2,526 2,351 3,815 4,115 Total 51-55 : 3,610 4,200 2,120 2,041 7,654 8,573 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper: Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT : 640 700 1,385 1,500 886 1,050 MA : 310 300 1,030 1,300 319 390 US : 950 1,000 1,268 1,440 1,205 1,440 All Cigar Types : Total 41-61 : 6,660 7,600 1,992 2,012 13,269 15,293 : All Tobacco : 428,660 413,010 2,055 2,044 880,734 844,298 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2003 : : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :-- 1,000 Acres -- --------- Tons -------- --- 1,000 Tons -- : CA : 49.9 50.0 39.5 38.0 37.0 1,971 1,850 CO : 39.5 27.5 20.1 23.5 23.5 794 646 ID : 210.0 207.0 24.3 27.6 27.6 5,103 5,713 MI : 177.0 175.0 18.1 19.0 18.0 3,204 3,150 MN : 476.0 465.0 18.6 20.8 19.9 8,854 9,254 MT : 55.9 52.2 19.6 25.0 25.0 1,096 1,305 NE : 42.0 43.4 18.1 20.7 20.7 760 898 ND : 258.0 278.0 18.6 21.5 21.0 4,799 5,838 OH : 1.8 1.8 20.6 24.0 24.0 37 43 OR : 11.0 9.4 27.4 29.6 29.6 301 278 WA : 4.0 4.4 35.0 40.0 40.0 140 176 WY : 36.0 34.0 18.3 21.5 21.5 659 731 : US :1,361.1 1,347.7 20.4 22.8 22.2 27,718 29,882 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA. Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2003 : : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Tons -------- --- 1,000 Tons -- : FL : 461.0 441.0 38.3 40.0 40.0 17,653 17,640 HI : 22.7 22.0 95.1 95.0 95.0 2,159 2,090 LA : 495.0 490.0 28.3 30.0 30.0 14,009 14,700 TX : 44.5 44.0 38.9 38.0 36.9 1,732 1,624 : US :1,023.2 997.0 34.7 36.2 36.2 35,553 36,054 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2001-2002, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :---------------------------------------------------------- : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 :2003-04 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 270 200 220 10 8 8 CA 4/ : 32,000 41,000 39,000 1,200 1,538 1,463 FL : 128,000 112,000 137,000 5,760 5,040 6,165 TX : 1,530 1,350 1,300 65 57 55 US : 161,800 154,550 177,520 7,035 6,643 7,691 Valencia : AZ : 250 270 250 9 10 9 CA : 19,500 21,000 20,000 731 788 750 FL : 102,000 91,000 115,000 4,590 4,095 5,175 TX : 210 220 250 9 9 11 US : 121,960 112,490 135,500 5,339 4,902 5,945 All : AZ : 520 470 470 19 18 17 CA : 51,500 62,000 59,000 1,931 2,326 2,213 FL : 230,000 203,000 252,000 10,350 9,135 11,340 TX : 1,740 1,570 1,550 74 66 66 US : 283,760 267,040 313,020 12,374 11,545 13,636 Temples : FL : 1,550 1,300 1,400 70 59 63 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 18,900 16,200 17,000 803 689 723 Colored Seedless : FL : 27,800 22,500 25,000 1,182 956 1,063 All : AZ : 160 130 90 5 4 3 CA : 5,900 5,600 5,500 198 188 184 FL : 46,700 38,700 42,000 1,985 1,645 1,786 TX : 5,900 5,650 5,300 236 226 212 US : 58,660 50,080 52,890 2,424 2,063 2,185 Tangerines : AZ 6/ : 620 430 600 23 16 23 CA 6/ : 2,200 2,500 2,500 83 94 94 FL 7/ : 6,600 5,500 6,600 314 261 314 US : 9,420 8,430 9,700 420 371 431 Lemons : AZ : 2,800 3,000 3,000 106 114 114 CA : 18,300 24,000 23,000 695 912 874 US : 21,100 27,000 26,000 801 1,026 988 Tangelos : FL : 2,150 2,350 1,300 97 106 59 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecasts. 5/ Includes seedy. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 7/ 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 through 2003-04 includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey varieties only. Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds : AZ 2/ : 5.4 26.2 2.6 AR 2/ : 5.5 4.5 5.5 CA 2/ : 520.0 470.0 510.0 CO 2/ : 23.0 21.0 21.0 CT 2/ : 20.5 12.0 21.5 GA 2/ : 9.0 10.0 11.0 ID 2/ : 80.0 80.0 85.0 IL 2/ : 43.6 43.0 42.0 IN 2/ : 53.0 40.0 51.0 IA 2/ : 8.8 8.5 9.7 KS 2/ : 4.0 3.7 4.1 KY 2/ : 8.3 5.6 8.4 ME 2/ : 47.0 48.5 46.0 MD 2/ : 40.8 32.0 37.0 MA 2/ : 39.0 33.0 46.0 MI : 930.0 500.0 990.0 MN 2/ : 24.0 25.0 26.0 MO 2/ : 41.0 38.0 34.0 NH 2/ : 30.0 26.5 34.0 NJ 2/ : 55.0 35.0 45.0 NM 3/ : 6.0 2.0 NY : 1,000.0 680.0 1,200.0 NC : 112.0 160.0 130.0 OH 2/ : 86.0 70.0 86.0 OR 2/ : 142.0 202.0 120.0 PA : 480.0 370.0 440.0 RI 2/ : 1.8 2.6 3.3 SC 2/ : 6.0 9.0 6.0 TN 2/ : 9.0 6.5 9.0 UT 2/ : 30.0 7.0 30.0 VT 2/ : 41.0 31.0 38.5 VA : 310.0 250.0 300.0 WA : 5,050.0 5,150.0 4,800.0 WV : 105.0 95.0 90.0 WI 2/ : 62.0 58.0 69.0 : US : 9,428.7 8,555.6 9,351.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ No forecast made. Only end of year estimates made. Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds Improved Varieties 1/ : AL : 10,000 4,000 6,800 AZ : 21,000 16,000 23,500 AR : 1,950 1,200 1,800 CA : 3,700 3,800 3,700 FL : 1,200 500 500 GA : 85,000 42,000 60,000 LA : 3,500 2,000 5,000 MS : 3,000 2,100 3,500 NM : 60,000 36,000 55,000 NC : 2,700 1,500 2,100 OK : 2,000 1,500 2,000 SC : 2,500 120 1,300 TX : 50,000 20,000 45,000 : US : 246,550 130,720 210,200 : Native & Seedling : AL : 5,000 1,000 1,200 AR : 650 500 1,500 FL : 2,100 900 1,600 GA : 25,000 3,000 10,000 KS : 2,200 2,900 2,300 LA : 10,500 4,000 10,000 MS : 1,500 900 1,500 NC : 500 400 400 OK : 18,000 8,500 18,000 SC : 1,500 80 200 TX : 25,000 20,000 25,000 : US : 91,950 42,180 71,700 : All Pecans : AL : 15,000 5,000 8,000 AZ : 21,000 16,000 23,500 AR : 2,600 1,700 3,300 CA : 3,700 3,800 3,700 FL : 3,300 1,400 2,100 GA : 110,000 45,000 70,000 KS : 2,200 2,900 2,300 LA : 14,000 6,000 15,000 MS : 4,500 3,000 5,000 NM : 60,000 36,000 55,000 NC : 3,200 1,900 2,500 OK : 20,000 10,000 20,000 SC : 4,000 200 1,500 TX : 75,000 40,000 70,000 : US : 338,500 172,900 281,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted October 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :-------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : AZ 1/ : 15,500 8,400 8,500 AR 1/ : 2,700 5,600 3,900 CA : All Types : 5,979,000 6,721,000 5,990,000 Wine : 3,051,000 3,149,000 3,000,000 Table 2/ : 713,000 739,000 690,000 Raisin 2/ 3/ : 2,215,000 2,833,000 2,300,000 GA 1/ : 3,200 2,800 3,200 MI : 28,900 42,700 80,000 MO 1/ : 2,300 2,900 3,000 NY : 149,000 156,000 210,000 NC 1/ : 2,000 2,300 2,800 OH 1/ : 6,000 5,800 7,600 OR 1/ : 22,800 22,000 25,000 PA : 61,500 53,200 70,000 TX 1/ : 9,500 4,700 8,500 VA 1/ : 4,200 4,600 4,900 WA : All Types : 283,000 332,000 335,000 Wine : 100,000 115,000 125,000 Juice : 183,000 217,000 210,000 : US : 6,569,600 7,364,000 6,752,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Fresh basis. 3/ The Raisin Industry Diversion Program (RID) was not implemented in 2003, but was implemented on the 2001 and 2002 bearing acres only. No production was realized from these acres. Acres enrolled are as follows: 41,000 for 2001 and 27,000 for 2002. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Aug : 2,165 2,380 1,610 1,560 3,745 3,275 Sep : 2,170 2,365 1,500 1,565 3,585 2,820 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,071.0 5,299.0 4,129.0 4,688.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 79,054.0 79,066.0 69,313.0 71,765.0 Corn for Silage : 7,490.0 Hay, All : 64,497.0 64,379.0 Alfalfa : 23,135.0 23,541.0 All Other : 41,362.0 40,838.0 Oats : 4,995.0 4,601.0 2,093.0 2,224.0 Proso Millet : 450.0 630.0 220.0 Rice : 3,240.0 3,005.0 3,207.0 2,978.0 Rye : 1,395.0 1,368.0 281.0 339.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,580.0 9,509.0 7,299.0 7,851.0 Sorghum for Silage : 352.0 Wheat, All : 60,468.0 61,700.0 45,917.0 52,839.0 Winter : 41,845.0 44,945.0 29,751.0 36,541.0 Durum : 2,909.0 2,915.0 2,703.0 2,869.0 Other Spring : 15,714.0 13,840.0 13,463.0 13,429.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,459.0 1,121.0 1,275.0 1,085.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 785.0 583.0 704.0 572.0 Mustard Seed : 191.0 96.5 175.0 94.2 Peanuts : 1,358.0 1,315.0 1,296.7 1,277.0 Rapeseed : 3.4 1.6 3.1 1.5 Safflower : 219.0 213.0 196.0 198.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,923.0 73,585.0 72,437.0 72,538.0 Sunflowers : 2,580.0 2,364.0 2,180.0 2,274.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,957.9 13,631.0 12,426.6 12,107.4 Upland : 13,714.0 13,451.0 12,184.0 11,939.0 Amer-Pima : 243.9 180.0 242.6 168.4 Sugarbeets : 1,427.3 1,364.7 1,361.1 1,347.7 Sugarcane : 1,023.2 997.0 Tobacco : 428.7 413.0 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 21.5 21.2 11.6 10.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,922.1 1,501.2 1,726.9 1,417.8 Dry Edible Peas : 302.7 356.0 279.7 334.0 Lentils : 221.0 246.0 209.0 240.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.9 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.3 0.2 Hops : 29.3 28.3 Peppermint Oil : 80.2 Potatoes, All : 1,304.6 1,278.7 1,270.3 1,251.1 Winter : 15.8 14.6 15.7 14.3 Spring : 87.8 85.1 86.1 82.9 Summer : 62.2 64.6 59.1 60.5 Fall : 1,138.8 1,114.4 1,109.4 1,093.4 Spearmint Oil : 18.0 Sweet Potatoes : 97.2 94.0 83.5 91.0 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 54.9 58.9 226,573 276,087 Corn for Grain : " : 130.0 142.2 9,007,659 10,207,141 Corn for Silage : Ton : 14.0 104,979 Hay, All : " : 2.34 2.50 150,962 160,706 Alfalfa : " : 3.19 3.34 73,824 78,523 All Other : " : 1.86 2.01 77,138 82,183 Oats : Bu : 56.7 65.0 118,628 144,649 Proso Millet : " : 12.5 2,755 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,578 6,624 210,960 197,251 Rye : Bu : 24.8 27.3 6,955 9,254 Sorghum for Grain : " : 50.7 51.0 369,758 400,653 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 9.5 3,360 Wheat, All : Bu : 35.3 44.2 1,619,001 2,336,526 Winter : " : 38.5 46.7 1,145,602 1,707,069 Durum : " : 29.4 33.7 79,450 96,637 Other Spring : " : 29.3 39.7 393,949 532,820 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,218 1,425 1,552,520 1,545,709 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,183.9 6,446.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 12,569 Mustard Seed : Lb : 705 123,450 Peanuts : " : 2,561 3,095 3,320,490 3,951,900 Rapeseed : " : 1,461 4,530 Safflower : " : 1,520 297,980 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 38.0 34.0 2,749,340 2,468,390 Sunflower : Lb : 1,142 1,152 2,489,606 2,619,497 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 665 696 17,208.6 17,559.0 Upland 2/ : " : 651 688 16,530.3 17,118.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,342 1,257 678.3 441.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.4 22.2 27,718 29,882 Sugarcane : " : 34.7 36.2 35,553 36,054 Tobacco : Lb : 2,055 2,044 880,734 844,298 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,414 164 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,736 1,665 29,974 23,603 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,517 4,242 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,200 2,508 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 457 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,270 7,500 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 45,000 37,000 14,400 7,400 Hops : " : 1,990 1,898 58,336.6 53,793.9 Peppermint Oil : " : 85 6,818 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 362 459,802 Winter : " : 268 282 4,206 4,027 Spring : " : 271 269 23,294 22,305 Summer : " : 304 320 17,985 19,360 Fall : " : 373 414,317 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 108 1,942 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 154 12,865 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2001-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,424 2,063 2,185 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/: " : 1 Lemons : " : 801 1,026 988 Oranges : " : 12,374 11,545 13,636 Tangelos (FL) : " : 97 106 59 Tangerines : " : 420 371 431 Temples (FL) : " : 70 59 63 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 8,555.6 9,351.6 Apricots : Ton : 90.0 90.4 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 19,500.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,364.0 6,752.4 Olives (CA) : " : 103.0 115.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 45,900.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,575.4 2,618.1 Pears : Ton : 868.5 933.3 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 171.0 190.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 15.7 14.7 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 1,090,000 1,000,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 19.5 35.0 Pecans : Lb : 172,900 281,900 Pistachios (CA) : " : 303,000 180,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 282.0 315.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,393 1,239 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,052,180 2,144,450 1,670,970 1,897,190 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,992,360 31,997,220 28,050,280 29,042,580 Corn for Silage : 3,031,130 Hay, All 3/ : 26,101,290 26,053,540 Alfalfa : 9,362,500 9,526,810 All Other : 16,738,790 16,526,730 Oats : 2,021,430 1,861,980 847,020 900,030 Proso Millet : 182,110 254,950 89,030 Rice : 1,311,200 1,216,090 1,297,840 1,205,170 Rye : 564,540 553,620 113,720 137,190 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,876,930 3,848,200 2,953,830 3,177,220 Sorghum for Silage : 142,450 Wheat, All 3/ :24,470,790 24,969,370 18,582,150 21,383,410 Winter :16,934,250 18,188,790 12,039,930 14,787,780 Durum : 1,177,240 1,179,670 1,093,880 1,161,060 Other Spring : 6,359,300 5,600,910 5,448,340 5,434,580 : Oilseeds : Canola : 590,440 453,660 515,980 439,090 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 317,680 235,930 284,900 231,480 Mustard Seed : 77,300 39,050 70,820 38,120 Peanuts : 549,570 532,170 524,760 516,790 Rapeseed : 1,380 650 1,250 610 Safflower : 88,630 86,200 79,320 80,130 Soybeans for Beans :29,915,900 29,779,110 29,314,530 29,355,400 Sunflowers : 1,044,100 956,690 882,220 920,270 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,648,620 5,516,330 5,028,920 4,899,740 Upland : 5,549,920 5,443,490 4,930,740 4,831,590 Amer-Pima : 98,700 72,840 98,180 68,150 Sugarbeets : 577,610 552,280 550,820 545,400 Sugarcane : 414,080 403,480 Tobacco : 173,470 167,140 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,700 8,580 4,690 4,290 Dry Edible Beans : 777,850 607,520 698,860 573,770 Dry Edible Peas : 122,500 144,070 113,190 135,170 Lentils : 89,440 99,550 84,580 97,130 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,390 Ginger Root (HI) : 130 80 Hops : 11,860 11,470 Peppermint Oil : 32,460 Potatoes, All 3/ : 527,960 517,480 514,080 506,310 Winter : 6,390 5,910 6,350 5,790 Spring : 35,530 34,440 34,840 33,550 Summer : 25,170 26,140 23,920 24,480 Fall : 460,860 450,990 448,960 442,490 Spearmint Oil : 7,280 Sweet Potatoes : 39,340 38,040 33,790 36,830 Taro (HI) 4/ : 170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2.95 3.17 4,933,040 6,011,080 Corn for Grain : 8.16 8.93 228,805,080 259,273,320 Corn for Silage : 31.42 95,235,350 Hay, All 2/ : 5.25 5.60 136,950,420 145,790,030 Alfalfa : 7.15 7.48 66,972,010 71,234,870 All Other : 4.18 4.51 69,978,420 74,555,160 Oats : 2.03 2.33 1,721,880 2,099,570 Proso Millet : 0.70 62,480 Rice : 7.37 7.42 9,568,990 8,947,160 Rye : 1.55 1.71 176,670 235,060 Sorghum for Grain : 3.18 3.20 9,392,290 10,177,050 Sorghum for Silage : 21.40 3,048,140 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.37 2.97 44,061,990 63,589,820 Winter : 2.59 3.14 31,178,180 46,458,800 Durum : 1.98 2.27 2,162,270 2,630,030 Other Spring : 1.97 2.67 10,721,530 14,500,980 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.36 1.60 704,210 701,120 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,609,940 5,847,710 Flaxseed : 1.12 319,270 Mustard Seed : 0.79 56,000 Peanuts : 2.87 3.47 1,506,150 1,792,550 Rapeseed : 1.64 2,050 Safflower : 1.70 135,160 Soybeans for Beans : 2.55 2.29 74,824,770 67,178,570 Sunflowers : 1.28 1.29 1,129,270 1,188,180 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.75 0.78 3,746,730 3,823,020 Upland : 0.73 0.77 3,599,050 3,727,010 Amer-Pima : 1.50 1.41 147,680 96,020 Sugarbeets : 45.65 49.70 25,145,350 27,108,490 Sugarcane : 77.89 81.06 32,253,140 32,707,640 Tobacco : 2.30 2.29 399,490 382,970 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.58 7,440 Dry Edible Beans : 1.95 1.87 1,359,600 1,070,610 Dry Edible Peas : 1.70 192,410 Lentils : 1.35 113,760 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 20,730 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.42 3,400 Ginger Root (HI) : 50.44 41.47 6,530 3,360 Hops : 2.23 2.13 26,460 24,400 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,090 Potatoes, All 2/ : 40.57 20,856,270 Winter : 30.03 31.56 190,780 182,660 Spring : 30.32 30.16 1,056,600 1,011,740 Summer : 34.11 35.87 815,790 878,150 Fall : 41.86 18,793,100 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 880 Sweet Potatoes : 17.27 583,550 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,770 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,199,020 1,871,520 1,982,200 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/ : 910 Lemons : 726,650 930,770 896,300 Oranges : 11,225,500 10,473,450 12,370,370 Tangelos (FL) : 88,000 96,160 53,520 Tangerines : 381,020 336,570 391,000 Temples (FL) : 63,500 53,520 57,150 : Noncitrus : Apples : 3,880,760 4,241,810 Apricots : 81,680 82,010 Bananas (HI) : 8,850 Grapes : 6,680,510 6,125,670 Olives (CA) : 93,440 104,330 Papayas (HI) : 20,820 Peaches : 1,168,180 1,187,550 Pears : 787,840 846,630 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 155,130 172,370 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,200 13,340 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 494,420 453,590 Hazelnuts : 17,690 31,750 Pecans : 78,430 127,870 Pistachios (CA) : 137,440 81,650 Walnuts (CA) : 255,830 285,760 Maple Syrup : 6,960 6,190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 7 corn producing States during 2003. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in these tables are rounded actual field counts from this survey. Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre, Selected States, 1999-2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Sep : 25,050 25,500 25,650 25,050 26,700 : Oct : 24,950 25,450 25,550 25,050 26,700 : Nov : 24,850 25,450 25,550 25,000 : Final : 24,900 25,450 25,550 25,000 : : IN : Sep : 24,350 24,500 25,500 23,900 25,350 : Oct : 23,950 24,550 25,350 23,650 25,400 : Nov : 23,900 24,650 25,400 23,650 : Final : 23,900 24,650 25,400 23,650 : : IA : Sep : 25,300 26,000 25,450 25,950 26,700 : Oct : 25,300 25,600 25,350 25,800 26,550 : Nov : 25,300 25,650 25,250 25,800 : Final : 25,300 25,650 25,250 25,800 : : MN : Sep : 26,650 27,350 27,500 26,550 28,300 : Oct : 26,700 27,350 26,750 26,150 28,650 : Nov : 26,650 27,250 26,700 26,100 : Final : 26,650 27,250 26,700 26,100 : : NE : : All : Sep : 22,800 22,800 22,200 21,650 22,950 : Oct : 22,650 22,750 21,950 21,250 22,650 : Nov : 22,600 22,700 22,050 21,200 : Final : 22,600 22,750 22,050 21,200 : : NE : : Irrigated : Sep : 25,800 26,500 25,550 25,800 26,550 : Oct : 25,600 26,350 25,350 25,700 26,350 : Nov : 25,600 26,350 25,350 25,650 : Final : 25,600 26,350 25,350 25,650 : : NE : : Non-Irrigated: Sep : 18,800 17,550 18,050 16,700 18,300 : Oct : 18,700 17,500 17,800 15,950 17,850 : Nov : 18,700 17,500 18,000 15,950 : Final : 18,700 17,500 18,000 15,950 : : OH : Sep : 24,000 24,450 25,550 23,700 25,500 : Oct : 24,100 24,250 25,250 22,400 25,700 : Nov : 24,050 23,950 25,150 22,350 : Final : 24,050 24,100 25,100 22,350 : : WI : Sep : 25,600 26,100 26,100 25,950 26,150 : Oct : 25,700 25,500 26,100 25,050 26,300 : Nov : 25,700 25,550 26,100 25,250 : Final : 25,700 25,550 26,100 25,250 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybeans: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 7 soybean producing States during 2003. Randomly selected plots in soybean fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet, Selected States, 1999-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Sep : 1,917 2,162 2,041 1,952 1,800 : Oct : 1,823 1,996 1,932 1,785 1,606 : Nov : 1,788 2,020 1,932 1,795 : Final : 1,787 2,021 1,932 1,802 : : IN : Sep : 1,771 1,917 2,003 1,773 1,786 : Oct : 1,627 1,786 1,882 1,677 1,692 : Nov : 1,622 1,784 1,880 1,680 : Final : 1,622 1,784 1,869 1,680 : : IA : Sep : 2,142 1,830 1,809 1,988 1,749 : Oct : 1,914 1,674 1,778 1,828 1,629 : Nov : 1,894 1,660 1,787 1,867 : Final : 1,878 1,660 1,796 1,867 : : MN : Sep : 1,612 1,607 1,492 1,688 1,582 : Oct : 1,555 1,509 1,433 1,785 1,417 : Nov : 1,563 1,507 1,475 1,739 : Final : 1,565 1,507 1,475 1,715 : : MO : Sep : 1,242 1,974 1,424 1,427 1,144 : Oct : 1,467 1,769 1,732 1,609 1,455 : Nov : 1,508 1,782 1,874 1,681 : Final : 1,525 1,793 1,921 1,705 : : NE : Sep : 1,877 1,795 1,961 1,548 1,727 : Oct : 1,880 1,617 1,932 1,517 1,642 : Nov : 1,872 1,619 2,003 1,587 : Final : 1,872 1,619 2,048 1,592 : : OH : Sep : 1,699 1,893 1,801 1,593 1,791 : Oct : 1,463 1,625 1,834 1,495 1,898 : Nov : 1,494 1,685 1,785 1,499 : Final : 1,494 1,697 1,785 1,492 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in 7 cotton producing States during 2003. Randomly selected cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, and Selected States, 1999-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep : 720 874 747 840 798 : Oct : 700 767 780 763 755 : Nov : 693 755 816 784 : Dec : 689 755 756 772 : Final : 689 755 756 772 : : CA : Sep : 921 760 939 945 973 : Oct : 805 790 902 1,041 945 : Nov : 779 801 921 1,009 : Dec : 777 800 918 1,011 : Final : 776 800 918 1,011 : : GA : Sep : 596 597 590 569 559 : Oct : 582 631 677 604 646 : Nov : 621 621 651 591 : Dec : 636 629 664 600 : Final : 632 629 664 608 : : LA : Sep : 722 722 625 663 681 : Oct : 743 692 592 756 778 : Nov : 728 674 582 749 : Dec : 728 674 588 742 : Final : 728 674 588 742 : : MS : Sep : 761 657 754 802 837 : Oct : 803 665 696 783 824 : Nov : 767 652 680 768 : Dec : 766 650 679 767 : Final : 766 650 679 767 : : NC : Sep : 623 670 719 636 628 : Oct : 646 724 722 629 630 : Nov : 619 743 696 560 : Dec : 621 747 705 567 : Final : 622 747 705 564 : : TX : Sep : 465 408 441 536 465 : Oct : 446 388 435 511 431 : Nov : 447 397 439 520 : Dec : 455 404 445 497 : Final : 456 448 445 497 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs, per 40 feet or row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls. September Weather Summary Midwestern soil moisture shortages persisted through month's end roughly north of a line from Kansas City, Missouri, to Detroit, Michigan, despite a period of locally heavy rainfall beginning September 10. Though the rain was welcomed across the northern and western Corn Belt, it came too late to aid drought-stressed corn and soybeans. Elsewhere in the Midwest, early-month downpours caused local flooding in the Ohio Valley, followed by a spell of cool, mostly dry weather. However, heavy rain returned to much of the eastern Corn Belt toward the end of September, causing minor fieldwork delays. A similar weather pattern prevailed across the South, where humid, showery conditions in early September yielded to cool, favorably dry weather. Before widespread showers returned to the South in late September, the only interruptions in an otherwise favorable period for summer crop maturation and harvesting were persistently heavy rains in Deep South Texas and the September 18-19 passage of Hurricane Isabel through the southern Mid-Atlantic States. Farther west, the same storm system that produced rainfall in the upper Midwest also delivered beneficial moisture to the Plains prior to mid-month. However, the mid- to late-September return of mostly dry, occasionally hot weather reduced soil moisture for winter wheat germination and establishment. Drought concerns were greatest on the northern and central High Plains, although newly planted wheat across portions of the southern Plains was also in need of rain. The month opened and closed on a very warm note from the Rockies westward, helping to boost September temperatures as much as 5 degrees F above normal. Between warm spells, a winter-like storm system crossed the West, sparking heavy rainfall and some high-elevation snows from the Four Corners region northward into Wyoming. Beneficial precipitation also fell prior to mid-September in winter wheat areas of the Northwest, although unfavorably dry weather returned thereafter. September Crop Summary The western half of the Nation remained mostly dry, with occasional scattered showers doing little to alleviate drought conditions. Early in the month, the Great Plains was split between above normal temperatures in the north and milder temperatures in the south. However, towards the end of the month, temperatures were consistently below normal across the region, as the first freeze of the season hit the northern Great Plains just after mid-month. At that time, the northern and central Rocky Mountains also experienced its first freeze. In the Pacific Northwest, the month began with very high temperatures, but the region cooled off around the middle of the month before returning to above normal temperatures during the last week. In the Southwest, temperatures were above normal throughout most of the month. The southern part of Corn Belt experienced moderate to heavy rainfall early in the month, but was mostly dry, with below-normal temperatures, through the end of the month. The northern part of the Corn Belt was mostly hot and dry, but experienced moderate precipitation just before mid-month and milder temperatures late in the month. Mississippi Delta growers saw light to moderate rainfall scattered throughout the month, with normal to below-normal temperatures. The Southeast had adequate rainfall, heavier toward the end of the month, and below-normal temperatures in the middle of the month but above-normal temperatures at the beginning and end of the month. In the middle Atlantic Coast States, temperatures were mild through the middle of the month, then above-normal in the latter half. Moderate to heavy precipitation fell throughout the month, with especially heavy showers just after mid-month in the wake of Hurricane Isabel. The Ohio Valley saw moderate rainfall with normal temperatures through most of the month. The Northeast also experienced moderate rainfall through most of the month and below-normal temperatures during the first half of the month, but above normal temperatures in the second half. As of September 7, ninety-five percent of the corn crop had reached the dough stage, 1 percentage point behind last year and the 5-year average. On September 21, ninety-five percent of the crop was dented, the same as last year at that time, but 1 point behind normal. At mid-month, 40 percent of the crop was mature, compared with 43 percent last year and 49 percent for the 5-year average. At that time, 7 percent of the acreage had been harvested, 2 points behind last year and the average. By the end of the month, 79 percent of the acreage was mature and 18 percent of the acreage had been harvested, both 1 percentage point behind last year and 5 points behind normal. At the beginning of the month, the crop was well behind normal progress in the Ohio Valley, and development did not accelerate, as the region experienced heavy rainfall through most of the month. By month's end, maturation and harvest progress was over 1 week behind the normal pace. In the Corn Belt, the crop began the month well behind the average denting pace, but advanced rapidly during the month to near average. Development progressed well in the Great Plains, but harvest fell behind by the end of the month as growers focused their efforts on planting winter wheat. Nationwide condition ratings early in the month deteriorated further, but as harvest began later in the month, condition of the crop improved. At the beginning of the month, 83 percent of the sorghum crop was headed, 50 percent was turning color, and 27 percent was mature. Heading was 2 weeks behind the normal pace and coloring and maturity were 1 week or more behind normal. By mid-month, 95 percent was headed, 69 percent was turning color, 40 percent was mature, and 29 percent had been harvested, all still well behind normal. By the end of the month, 86 percent of the crop was turning color, 57 percent was mature, and 36 percent was harvested, about 2 weeks behind normal for all development stages. Throughout the month, the Texas crop fell further behind in all stages of development, ending the month at over 4 weeks behind in coloring and maturity and over 3 weeks behind their normal harvest pace. The Kansas, Illinois, and Nebraska crops also lagged behind their normal harvest progress by 1 to 2 weeks. Crop condition remained depressed throughout the month, with the worst condition ratings in the Great Plains but much better conditions in the Mississippi Delta. Twenty-two percent of the rice crop had been harvested by the beginning of September, compared with 23 percent last year and 24 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest accelerated after mid-month in the interior Delta, ending the month near the normal pace. By September 28, sixty-nine percent of the Nation's crop had been harvested, the same as last year but 2 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest was almost complete in Texas and Louisiana, at 98 and 96 percent, respectively. As of September 28, seventy-eight percent of the soybean crop was dropping leaves and 17 percent of the acreage had been harvested, both 3 points behind the 5-year average. During the first half of the month, the crop progressed slowly through the dropping leaves stage but gained momentum during the middle of the month. However, the crop in Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, and Ohio finished the month over 1 week behind the normal pace for dropping leaves. Harvest of the late maturing crop progressed slowly across most of the Nation, as wet weather after mid-month kept some growers out of the fields in the eastern Corn Belt and Ohio Valley, while Great Plains producers focused on planting winter wheat. Producers in the eastern Corn Belt and Ohio Valley were 1 week or more behind their normal harvest pace. Crop condition continued to deteriorate throughout the month, with the largest decreases in the Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the Great Plains. By mid-month, the peanut harvest had begun in most States, but at just 3 percent complete, was 4 percentage points behind last year and 5 points behind the normal pace. By the month's end, harvest had progressed to 22 percent complete, 2 points ahead of last year but 2 points behind the 5-year average. Growers in Florida and Alabama made the most progress during the month, with over 40 percent of their crop harvested. Texas producers, at 4 percent harvested, were over 2 weeks behind their normal harvest pace. Nationwide crop condition was mostly unchanged through the first half of the month but declined in the second half, mostly due to Hurricane Isabel's effects on North Carolina's and Virginia's crop. At the beginning of the month, 24 percent of the cotton crop had open bolls, 14 percentage points behind last year at that time and 15 points behind the average. By mid-month, bolls opening had progressed to 45 percent, 16 points behind last year and 19 points behind normal. By September 28, seventy percent of fields had open bolls, compared to 83 percent last year and 84 percent for the 5-year average. Eight percent of the crop had been harvested as of September 14, compared with 10 percent last year by that date and 11 percent for the 5-year average. By the end of the month, 15 percent of the acreage had been harvested, 2 points behind last year and 7 points behind the 5-year average. Nationwide, bolls opened over 1 week behind the normal pace, with Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas more than 2 weeks behind. Harvest was also 1 week behind for the Nation, and 2 weeks or more behind normal in Alabama, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. Crop condition declined in the first half of the month but stabilized during the second half, despite some damage in North Carolina and Virginia, due to Hurricane Isabel. By mid-month, 16 percent of next year's expected winter wheat acreage had been planted, the same as last year but 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. As the month ended, acreage planted had increased to 49 percent, 2 points ahead of last year and 9 points ahead of the normal pace. Emergence of the crop was 20 percent by September 28, compared with 21 percent for the same date last year and 17 percent for the 5-year average. Planting progressed ahead of normal across most of the Nation, with the Great Plains States progressing well ahead of normal. Emergence of the crop was also ahead of normal in the central and northern Great Plains, while the rest of the Nation was at or slightly behind normal. As of September 7, ninety-seven percent of the spring wheat and barley crops had been harvested. The spring wheat harvest was 15 percentage points ahead of last year and 12 points ahead of the 5-year average, while the barley harvest was 18 points ahead of last year's pace and 10 points ahead of normal. Warm, dry weather across the major producing areas in late August and early September allowed harvest to progress well ahead of normal in all States. Corn for grain: Based on administrative data from FSA, updates to planted acreage were made in several States. However, total planted acreage remains unchanged at the National level. Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain was also revised in a number of States and is now forecast at 71.8 million acres, down 50,000 acres from September but up 4 percent from 2002. The October 1 corn objective yield data indicate the highest number of stalks on record for the combined seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The October objective yield forecasted ears per acre are also at a record high, 4 percent above the previous high set in 2000 and 6 percent above last year. As of September 28, seventy-nine percent of the corn acreage was mature in the 18 major corn-producing States. This compares with 80 percent for last year and 84 percent for the average. Corn harvested for grain was progressing slightly behind last year as 18 percent of the crop had been combined by September 28. This is behind both last year and the average of 19 percent and 23 percent, respectively. Forty-nine percent of the crop was rated good to excellent as of September 28, three points above the first of September and six points above a year ago. At the beginning of the month, the crop was well behind the average denting pace in the Corn Belt, but advanced rapidly and ended the month near the average. In the Ohio Valley, the crop began the month well behind normal progress and development did not accelerate, as the region experienced heavy rainfall through most of the month. Nationwide, maturation and harvest was over 1 week behind the normal pace by month's end. Development progressed well in the Great Plains, but harvest fell behind by the end of the month. Sorghum: Production is forecast at 401 million bushels, down 2 percent from last month but up 8 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, the sorghum yield forecast is 51.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month but up 0.3 bushels from 2002. Yield increases from last month are expected in 4 of the top 11 producing States; Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, and Nebraska. These increases are offset by declines in Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas. Area planted to sorghum for all purposes is estimated at 9.51 million acres, down 3 percent from August and 1 percent from 2002. Area for harvest as grain is forecast at 7.85 million acres, down 2 percent from last month but 8 percent above last year. As of September 28, harvest was underway in the top 11 sorghum-producing States. During early September, rainfall and cool temperatures enhanced crop conditions in the southern Great Plains. However, the hot and dry conditions returned later in the month. In Texas, harvest is complete in the southern and central areas, but continues in the Plains. Nationwide, the sorghum crop was 57 percent mature, trailing last year by 12 percentage points and the 5-year average by 18 points. Twenty-three percent of the crop was rated good to excellent as of September 28, which is 1 point below the comparable week last month. Rice: Production is forecast at 197 million cwt, down fractionally from September and down 6 percent from 2002. Harvested acres, at 2.98 million, are unchanged from September but down 7 percent from 2002. As of October 1, the U.S. all rice yield is forecast at a record high 6,624 pounds per acre. This forecast yield is down 31 pounds from September but up 46 pounds from the current record high yield set in 2002. Record high yields are forecast for Arkansas, Louisiana, and Missouri. As of September 28, the U.S. rice harvest was 69 percent complete, 2 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Harvest was nearly complete in Louisiana and Texas. All Delta States were within 3 percentage points of their normal harvest progress. California rice harvest, at 25 percent complete, was 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Soybeans: Based on administrative data from FSA, updates to planted acreage were made in several States. Area planted at 73.6 million acres, is down 68,000 acres from the August estimate and down less than 1 percent from 2002. Area for harvest is forecast at 72.5 million acres, down 88,000 acres from September, but up fractionally from the 2002 acreage. The October objective yield pod counts are forecasted down 2 percent from last month and 6 percent below last year. This is lowest pod count since 1997 for the combined seven States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio). Pod counts are considerably below last year in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri while counts are higher than 2002 in Indiana, Nebraska, and Ohio. As of September 28, seventy-eight percent of the crop had dropped leaves. This is 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Soybeans were most advanced in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, where 95 percent or more of the crop had already dropped leaves. Soybean harvest was progressing behind normal as of September 28, with 17 percent of the acreage harvested, 3 percentage points behind the average. However, harvest progress was ahead of normal in Arkansas, Minnesota, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. As of September 28, thirty-nine percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, 6 points lower than the August 31 rating and 4 percentage points below the same week in 2002. Sunflowers: The first sunflower production forecast for 2003 is 2.62 billion pounds, up 5 percent from 2002 but 23 percent below 2001. Area planted at 2.36 million acres, is up 2 percent from the June estimate but down 8 percent from 2002. Sunflower farmers expect to harvest 2.27 million acres, up 1 percent from June and up 4 percent from the 2002 acreage. The October yield forecast, at 1,152 pounds, is 10 pounds more than the 2002 yield. Higher yields are expected in 6 of the 7 major sunflower growing States. As of October 1, growers in Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Texas are expecting higher yields this year. In North Dakota, the yield is forecast at 1,200 pounds per acre, down 100 pounds from last year. As of September 28, harvest was just underway in Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota at the end of September. Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.95 billion pounds, down 1 percent from last month but up 19 percent from 2002. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.28 million acres, unchanged from the September estimate but down 2 percent from 2002. Yields are expected to average 3,095 pounds, 26 pounds below last month but up 534 pounds from 2002. Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total 2.63 billion pounds, unchanged from last month but 38 percent above last year. Expected area for harvest, at 849,000 acres, is unchanged from last month but up 8 percent from the previous year. Yield in the four-State area is expected to average 3,095 pounds per acre, unchanged from September but 662 pounds above 2002. As of September 28, peanut condition in Alabama was rated 66 percent good to excellent. Florida peanuts were rated 85 percent good to excellent and Georgia peanuts were rated 76 percent good to excellent. Alabama's peanut harvest stood at 44 percent complete on September 28, eleven percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Florida's harvest, at 45 percent complete, was 7 percentage points ahead, but Georgia, at 26 percent complete, lagged behind the 5-year average by 2 percentage points. The Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 372 million pounds, down 3 percent from September but up 13 percent from 2002. Area for harvest is expected to total 133,000 acres, unchanged from last month, but down 15 percent from the previous year. Yield is forecast at 2,800 pounds, down 75 pounds from September but up 700 pounds from last year. North Carolina peanut condition was rated 51 percent good on September 28, while peanuts in Virginia were rated 46 percent good to excellent. Prior to Hurricane Isabel, North Carolina peanuts were rated 84 percent good to excellent, while those in Virginia were rated 78 percent good to excellent. North Carolina's peanut harvest was 3 percent complete on September 28, six percentage points behind the 5-year average, and Virginia, at 10 percent complete, was 11 points behind the 5-year average. The Southwest peanut production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 952 million pounds, down 2 percent from September and down 12 percent from 2002. The region's acreage for harvest, at 295,000 acres, is unchanged from September but 17 percent below the 2002 level. Yield is forecast to average 3,225 pounds per acre for the region, 82 pounds below last month but 178 pounds above 2002. As of September 28, peanuts in Oklahoma were rated 50 percent good to excellent, while those in Texas were rated 69 percent good to excellent. Peanut harvest in Texas stood at 4 percent complete on September 28, thirteen percentage points behind the 5-year average. Oklahoma's harvest was 7 percent complete, 3 percentage points behind normal. As announced in April, the 2002 peanut crop would be open for revisions and subsequently published in the October Crop Production report. Review of survey and administrative data indicated no revisions were necessary. Canola: The first canola production forecast for 2003 is 1.55 billion pounds, down slightly from 2002. Area planted at 1.12 million acres, is down 7 percent from the June estimate and down 23 percent from 2002. Canola farmers expect to harvest 1.09 million acres, down 7 percent from June and down 15 percent from 2002. The October yield forecast, at 1,425 pounds per acre, is 207 pounds above last year. North Dakota's yield at 1,400 pounds per acre, is up 170 pounds from 2002. Adequate moisture boosted the Minnesota yield to 1,900 pounds per acre, more than double last year. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 11.9 million acres, is down 1 percent from the previous month and 2 percent less than 2002. A significant number of cotton fields in the southern High Plains area of Texas were left unharvestable after one of the worst late season hail storms passed through that area. American-Pima harvested acreage, at 168,400 acres, is unchanged from last month but down 31 percent from a year ago. In the Southeastern States, early September weather was hot and humid resulting in stress on shallow rooted fields. Defoliation was just underway, but most of the region was two to three weeks late in maturity. Toward the middle of the month, North Carolina and Virginia cotton growing areas were hit by Hurricane Isabel, which brought intensive winds and rain. There were some losses from bolls being blown off and lodging of plants. After the hurricane, an additional cold front brought more rain resulting in flooded cotton fields. Concerns with boll rot increased. Harvesting began south of the Carolinas toward the end of the month, but was limited due to rains. Objective yield data show below average boll counts in North Carolina but above average boll counts in Georgia. Harvesting in the Delta region was limited to extreme southern areas at the beginning of the month. Ideal growing conditions benefitted the crop during the middle of the month. Defoliation began on early planted fields in Tennessee and Missouri, but later planted fields were slow to mature as cooler temperatures arrived. Toward the end of the month the harvest expanded throughout the region, but wet weather limited progress. Objective yield measurements show Mississippi's boll counts are higher than any of the previous 15 years. Louisiana's boll counts are the highest since 1992. The boll counts in Arkansas, however, are the lowest since 1999. Texas growers in the southern High Plains suffered another setback as severe weather destroyed or adversely affected significant cotton acreage. Harvest activities in central Texas and the Gulf Coast were interrupted by intermittent showers throughout the month. Growers were concerned that late cotton would be unable to finish setting bolls as a series of cold fronts dropped temperatures sharply. The cotton harvest expanded in the Panhandle toward the end of September. The Oklahoma harvest was just underway toward month's end. Data from objective yield samples show Texas boll counts are lower than three of the previous four years. The upland cotton harvest was underway in southwestern Arizona. Harvest had not started in California, but when it does, it will be the latest start in any of the previous 15 years. San Joaquin Valley growers halted irrigation to hasten maturity. Data from the objective yield plots indicate California's boll count is the third highest in the 15-year data series, surpassed only by the previous two seasons. American-Pima production is forecast at 441,000 bales, up 2 percent from September, but 35 percent less than last year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,257 pounds per acre, up 30 pounds from the September forecast but 85 pounds below the record high yield established in 2002. California's American-Pima production is forecast at 380,000 bales, up 3 percent from last month, but 37 percent less than last year. Harvest is underway in Arizona, but has not started in the other American-Pima producing States. All cotton ginned totaled 2,003,850 running bales prior to October 1, compared with 1,656,350 running bales ginned prior to the same date last year and 2,071,700 running bales ginned in 2001. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Hay production, for alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures, is forecast at 78.5 million tons, up less than 1 percent from the August forecast and 6 percent above 2002. Yields are expected to average 3.34 tons per acre, up 0.03 ton from the August forecast and 0.15 ton from last year. Harvested area is 23.5 million acres, unchanged from the August estimate but up 2 percent from 2002. The yield in all but 8 States is the same or above last year's level as most areas received adequate moisture. Dry conditions in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin hindered growth and development while providing excellent harvesting conditions. After the wet summer in the Ohio Valley, growers encountered drier conditions during September allowing more opportunities to harvest. In the Southwest, conditions improved but the yield remained below last year due to the hot, dry weather early in the growing season. Other Hay: Production is forecast at 82.2 million tons, virtually the same as August but up 7 percent from 2002. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 2.01 tons, the same as the August forecast but 0.15 ton above last year. If realized, this will be a record high yield. Harvested acreage is estimated at 40.8 million, unchanged from the August estimate but down 1 percent from 2002. Record high yields are forecast for Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia due to abundant rainfall during the growing season. Abundant rainfall in the Ohio Valley contributed to higher yields than last year. In the central Great Plains, the lack of rainfall in August stressed crops and limited yields, but they remain higher than last year. In Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi, wet conditions delayed harvesting until later than normal. Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is forecast at 23.6 million cwt for 2003, down 3 percent from the August forecast and 21 percent below last year. Harvested acreage is forecast at 1.42 million acres, the same as August but down 18 percent from last year. The average U.S. yield is forecast at 1,665 pounds per acre, a decrease of 52 pounds from the August forecast and 71 pounds below last year. Since August, production forecasts have decreased 29 percent in Colorado, 6 percent in both Michigan and Wyoming, 5 percent in California, and 2 percent in North Dakota. Higher production is forecast in New York and Texas, up 10 percent and 8 percent, respectively. Production is expected to be lower than last year in 11 of the 18 producing States. These decreases are mostly a result of warm, dry conditions in many of the major producing States. Washington and Colorado are down 46 percent from last year. Michigan expects a 42 percent reduction and Oregon a 25 percent decrease. North Dakota is down 18 percent and Idaho, California, and Minnesota all expect reductions of 16 percent. Decreases in other States are 15 percent in Nebraska, 10 percent in Montana, and 5 percent in Wisconsin. In Michigan, warm, dry conditions during September helped the crop to dry down but reduced yields. Good quality during harvest has been reported. Minnesota's harvest was 73 percent complete as of September 28. Harvest of Nebraska's crop is moving quickly with average to above average yields. North Dakota's harvest began ahead of schedule in late August with 76 percent of the crop harvested by September 28. Production is back up in Utah following a drought reduced crop in 2002. New York and New Mexico production are both up 32 percent from last year. Production is also up from last year in Kansas and Wyoming by 17 and 15 percent, respectively. South Dakota and Texas expect increased production as well. The Texas crop is in good condition so far this year. The Wyoming crop is better than last year with growers rating crop condition as mostly good. Winter Potatoes: Production for 2003 is revised to 4.03 million cwt, down 3 percent from the April forecast and 4 percent below 2002. Harvested area of 14,300 acres in the two winter potato States (California and Florida) is 3 percent below the April 1 forecast and 9 percent less than last year. The average yield of 282 cwt per acre is up 1 cwt from the April forecast and 14 cwt above 2002. California's production, at 2.64 million cwt, is 8 percent above last season. Florida's production of 1.39 million cwt is down 22 percent from a year ago. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production is forecast at 844 million pounds, 2 percent above the September 1 forecast but down 4 percent from 2002. If realized, this will be the smallest crop since 1908. Area for harvest is forecast at 413,010 acres, down less than 1 percent from last month and down 4 percent from 2002. Yields for 2003 are expected to average 2,044 pounds per acre, 36 pounds higher than the September forecast but 11 pounds below a year ago. Yields in North Carolina, the leading tobacco producing State, are expected to average 1,946 pounds per acre, 6 pounds higher than last month but 121 pounds lower than last year. In Kentucky, the second leading State, yields are expected to average 2,179 pounds per acre, 101 pounds above the September forecast and up 172 pounds from a year ago. Tobacco growers in Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee expect higher yields than a month ago. In Connecticut and Virginia, lower yields are expected. The remaining States are unchanged from the September forecast. Flue-cured production is expected to total 476 million pounds, down less than 1 percent from last month and 8 percent below 2002. Growers plan to harvest 238,300 acres in 2003, down less than 1 percent from last month and 3 percent below last year. Yields are forecast to average 1,998 pounds per acre, 2 pounds above the September forecast but 107 pounds less than the previous year. As harvest nears completion in North Carolina, yields in the Border Belt region are reported to be somewhat better than previously expected. Virginia flue-cured producers anticipate lower yields due to damage caused by heavy rains and high winds from Hurricane Isabel. Additional yield losses occurred when a severe thunderstorm brought up to 5 inches of rain in some areas. Also, excessive rainfall from May through July caused a reduction in acres harvested. Burley production is expected to total 303 million pounds, up 4 percent from the September forecast and 1 percent higher than last year. Burley growers plan to harvest 149,200 acres, down 6 percent from a year ago. Yields are expected to average 2,033 pounds per acre, 86 pounds above the September forecast and up 141 pounds from 2002. Kentucky, the largest burley producing State, forecasts production at 204 million pounds, up 5 percent from the September forecast and 3 percent above last year. Adequate soil moisture conditions throughout September in Kentucky helped to improve yield prospects for later planted tobacco. The housed tobacco crop is reported to be curing well in both Kentucky and Tennessee. Fire-cured production is expected to total 34.1 million pounds, up 2 percent from the September forecast but 2 percent below last year. Growers plan to harvest 11,100 acres in 2003, down 1 percent from last month but 1 percent above a year ago. The yield is expected to average 3,069 pounds per acre, up 92 pounds from the September forecast but 113 pounds lower than the previous year. Southern Maryland Belt tobacco production is expected to total 4.70 million pounds, 3 percent above the September forecast but 2 percent below the previous year. A total of 2,800 acres is expected to be harvested this year, down 7 percent from 2002. Average yields, at 1,679 pounds per acre, are up 47 pounds from the September forecast and 84 pounds higher than last year. Dark air-cured production is expected to total 10.8 million pounds, up 5 percent from last month and 1 percent higher than 2002. Growers plan to harvest 4,010 acres in 2003, up 5 percent from last year. Yields are forecast to average 2,702 pounds per acre, 121 pounds above the September forecast but 88 pounds below last season. All cigar type production is forecast to total 15.3 million pounds, up 2 percent from the September forecast and 15 percent above last year. Growers of cigar type tobacco plan to harvest 7,600 acres, 1 percent above last month's forecast and 14 percent higher than a year ago. Overall yield is expected to average 2,012 pounds per acre, up 15 pounds from the September forecast and 20 pounds above 2002. Sugarbeets: Production is forecast at 29.9 million tons, 3 percent below the September forecast but 8 percent above last year's production. Growers in the 12 sugarbeet-producing States expect to harvest 1.35 million acres. This is virtually unchanged from the September forecast but 1 percent below last year. The yield is forecast at 22.2 tons per acre, 0.6 ton below the September forecast but 1.8 tons above 2002. Condition ratings for the Minnesota and North Dakota sugarbeet crops declined during September, primarily due to continued dry weather. In Montana, improved availability of irrigation water has resulted in greatly improved yields compared to last year. Most States began harvest near the end of September. In both Minnesota and North Dakota, 11 percent of the crop was harvested as of September 28, slightly behind the 5-year average in each State. Sugarcane: Production is forecast at 36.1 million tons, virtually unchanged from the September forecast but 1 percent above last year. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 997,000 acres for sugar and seed during the 2003 crop year, up fractionally from last month but 3 percent below last year's final harvested acres. Yield is forecast at 36.2 tons per acre, unchanged from the September forecast but 1.5 tons above 2002. Sugarcane ripeners were applied on time in Louisiana, and as of September 28, harvest was 5 percent complete. Weather conditions there have been favorable for growth and remain favorable for harvest. In Florida, dry weather during the first half of September, followed by mostly rainy conditions during the last half, aided growth and development of the crop. Growers there expect to begin harvesting around mid-October. The Texas Rio Grande Valley experienced some heavy and badly needed rain during September; however, yield prospects still declined from last month. Weather in Hawaii remained relatively dry. Grapefruit: The initial U.S. grapefruit forecast is 2.19 million tons, 6 percent above last season's final utilization. Florida's grapefruit forecast is 42.0 million boxes (1.79 million tons), 9 percent above the previous season. If realized, this will be the second lowest utilized production since the 1989-90 freeze affected season. White grapefruit are forecast at 17.0 million boxes (723,000 tons), 5 percent above last season. Average fruit per tree is 25 percent above the previous season and fruit size is expected to be above average although smaller than last season. The forecast for colored grapefruit utilization, at 25.0 million boxes (1.06 million tons), is 11 percent above last season's final utilization. Average fruit per tree is 30 percent above last season and is above the previous 5-season average. Fruit sizes are above average but not as large as last season. Bearing trees for both types of Florida grapefruit continue to decline as a result of pressure from disease, abandonment, and urbanization. Grapefruit production in California is forecast at 5.50 million boxes (1.84 million tons), 2 percent below last season's final utilization. The 2003-04 grapefruit season is off to a good start with ideal weather conditions in the desert area for grapefruit production. The October 1 grapefruit forecast for Texas is 5.30 million boxes (212,000 tons), down 6 percent from the previous season. Recent rains have improved the outlook for the 2003-04 season. Arizona's October 1 forecast, at 90,000 boxes (3,000 tons), is 31 percent below last season's final utilized production. Good size and quality are expected for the 2003-04 crop. Arizona's grapefruit producing areas continue to be under pressure from urbanization. Lemons: The initial forecast for the 2003-04 U.S. lemon crop is 988,000 tons, down 4 percent from last season's final utilization. California production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes (874,000 tons), 4 percent below the 2002-03 season. Harvest of 2002-03 crop continues, with new crop harvest expected to begin later this fall. Overall new crop fruit size appears to be smaller than normal. Arizona's 2003-04 lemon forecast is 3.00 million boxes (114,000 tons), unchanged from the previous season. Harvest is underway. Fair quality and good sizes are reported. Tangelos: Florida's 2003-04 tangelo forecast is 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons), 45 percent less than last season's utilized production and the smallest harvest since the 1965-66 season. Average fruit per tree is down 52 percent. However, the light fruit set is expected to result in larger than average fruit size at harvest. Fruit droppage is expected to be less than average. Temples: Florida's Temples are initially forecast at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2003-04 season, 8 percent above last season's final utilization and, if attained, the third lowest crop since the freeze affected 1989-90 harvest. Average fruit per tree is 22 percent above last season; however, bearing trees are down 9 percent. Fruit size and the rate of growth are above average but not as large as last season. Droppage rates are expected to average near 10.5 percent. Tangerines: The 2003-04 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 431,000 tons, up 16 percent from last season's final utilized production of 371,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 6.60 million boxes (314,000 tons), 20 percent above last season's utilization of 5.50 million boxes. Bearing tree numbers are down but average fruit per tree is up from last season. Droppage on early varieties is expected to be near average while late Honey variety droppage is expected to be slightly below average. California's tangerine forecast is 2.50 million boxes (94,000 tons), unchanged from last season's final utilization. Acreage increased for the fourth year in a row in response to higher returns for Mandarins. Arizona's initial tangerine forecast is 600,000 boxes (23,000 tons), up 40 percent from last season. Fruit size is expected to be normal and quality expected to be good. Florida Citrus: September continued the typical summer weather pattern of moderate to hot temperatures and high humidity but with above average rainfall. To date, rainfall accumulations for the calender year are above normal levels in all areas. Some reporting stations received twice the monthly average or more during September. Coastal areas received more rainfall than interior areas. Tropical Storm Henri brought heavy rainfall but no wind at the beginning of the month. Dryer weather prevailed during mid-September but a weak tropical system brought large amounts of rainfall to southern growing areas during the last week of September. Citrus crops in all areas made excellent progress with no major problems reported. Trees are in excellent condition with multiple flushes of new growth observed. Growers report a small amount of fruit splitting, which is typical for this time of the season. Good to excellent fruit sizes are reported. Fresh fruit crops were sprayed regularly to hold down insect populations. Some crops on the East Coast received weekly treatments. Growers and caretakers conducted routine summer cultural practices including weed and cover crop control and dead tree removal and replacement. In the flat woods and coastal areas, ditches and canals were maintained to move excess water out of the groves and away from tree roots. By mid-month, packinghouses received the first varieties to be packed which included Navel, Ambersweet, and Hamlin oranges, white and colored grapefruit, and Fallglo tangerines. Several processors opened to receive packinghouse eliminations only. Texas Citrus: Grapefruit harvest has not begun for the 2003-04 season but some early season oranges are being harvested. Recent rains have improved the outlook for the new season. Growers are busy with routine cultural practices including weed control, pesticide applications, and irrigation where needed. California Citrus: Old crop Valencia orange harvest remained slow throughout the month with overall quality declining as the end of the season drew near. New crop Navels were developing and sizing well, especially in citrus groves with a light fruit set. Harvest is expected to begin in early November. The new crop lemon harvest began in the Coachella Valley, with good quality reported. The Marsh Ruby grapefruit harvest continued in the south coast area with a decrease in quality as the season nears completion. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Fruit growers conducted cultural activities that included weed control, fungicide applications, and irrigation of trees and vines. Stone fruit harvest continued throughout the month but began winding down as the end of the season approached. Varieties picked and packed included September Red and Arctic Snow nectarines, September Sun and September Snow peaches, Angeleno plums, and French prunes. In some areas large portions of the prune crop were screened out for size. Picking and packing of table grapes continued in the San Joaquin Valley, with Crimson and Thompson Seedless the primary varieties harvested. Decay and splits were observed in some grapes due to recent rainfall. Plastic covers were placed over vines in a few late season table grape vineyards to protect the fruit from potential rain damage. The harvest of natural raisins was ongoing throughout the month. Approximately 95 percent of the raisin crop had been picked, 25 percent was on trays drying, and about 40 percent of the trays rolled by month's end. Fruit, in dried on the vine raisin vineyards, were drying steadily. Wine and juice grape harvests remained active throughout the State. Harvest of Granny Smith, Fuji, and Gala apple varieties continued. Early Foothill and Wonderful pomegranates, Hosui Asian pears, and Kadota figs were harvested. Kiwifruit and pineapple quince neared maturity by mid-month. Strawberry plantings advanced rapidly under ideal weather conditions. Irrigation, weeding, and insect pest control treatments were underway in strawberry fields. Olive growers continued to spray for olive fruit fly control. Olive harvest commenced in a few locations by the middle of September. Bartlett pear harvest was active in Lake County. Almond harvest continued throughout the month but was winding down by the end of September. Walnut harvesting was underway throughout the State by month's end but at a relatively slow pace. Pistachio harvest began in parts of Tulare County during the last week of September. Irrigation and treatments to control insect pests were underway in nut orchards as needed. Apples: The final production forecast for the 2003 crop year is 9.35 billion pounds, up 1 percent from the August 1 forecast and 9 percent above 2002. Of the 7 States making October 1 production forecasts, Michigan and New York increased from the August 1 forecast, Pennsylvania and Virginia remained unchanged, while North Carolina, Washington, and West Virginia decreased from August. The Eastern and Central apple producing regions are forecasting increases in production from the August 1 forecast, while the Western region is forecasting a decrease. Compared to 2002, production increases in the Eastern and Central States more than offset decreases in the Western States. The Western States (AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, UT, WA) production is forecast at 5.57 billion pounds, down 2 percent from the August 1 forecast and 7 percent below 2002. Washington, which makes up 51 percent of the U.S. forecast, is expecting 4.80 billion pounds of apples. Washington is down 2 percent from the previous forecast and 7 percent below last year. There are reports in Washington of spotty bloom and lower production in some of the new varieties due to the alternate bearing cycle. Some scattered frost and hail damage are reported. All of the other Western States are carried forward from the August 1 forecast. Production in the Eastern States (CT, GA, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, NC, PA, RI, SC, VT, VA, WV) is forecast at 2.45 billion pounds, up 7 percent from the August 1 forecast and 36 percent above last season. Production from the August 1 forecast increased 18 percent in New York, remained unchanged in Pennsylvania and Virginia, and decreased 7 percent in North Carolina and 5 percent in West Virginia. A wet summer, along with sunny days and cool nights, contributed to excellent fruit size and good color in New York. There is some tree loss from Hurricane Isabel in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. All other Eastern States are carried forward from the August 1 forecast. Production in the Central States (AR, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, TN, WI) is forecast at 1.33 billion pounds, up 2 percent from the August 1 forecast and 66 percent above 2002. Michigan's production increased by 2 percent from the August forecast and 98 percent from 2002. Size and quality are excellent on the Michigan apple crop, where a record high yield is forecast. All other Central States are carried forward from the August 1 forecast. Pecans: The October 1 forecast for 2003 pecan utilized production is 282 million pounds (in-shell basis), up 63 percent from last year's crop but 17 percent below the 2001 crop year. The 2003 season is the high year of the alternate bearing cycle; however, frequent rain and cool, cloudy conditions throughout the summer produced widespread disease problems, particularly in the Southeast States. Fungicide applicators were frequently interrupted by showers. Scab and insect pressure were the two most common problems reported. Improved varieties are expected to make up 210 million pounds or three quarters of the total, while the Native and seedling varieties, at 71.7 million pounds, make up the remaining crop. The Georgia forecast, at 70.0 million pounds, is 56 percent above last season but 36 percent less than the 2001 crop. The Texas production forecast is 70.0 million pounds, 75 percent above the previous year but 7 percent less than the 2001 crop. New Mexico's forecast, at 55.0 million pounds, is 53 percent above last year but down 8 percent from two years ago. For these States, most of the increase is related to the alternate bearing cycle. Reporters in Georgia commented that the extensive scab disease combined with wet weather is causing the 2003 crop to be one of the most expensive crops to produce. The dry weather during August and September is causing early defoliation with leaf regrowth creating concerns for the 2004 crop. Texas grower's comments varied from, "It's the best crop ever," to "No crop is expected". Problems reported included damaged buds from late March and April freezes followed by dry conditions in July and August. The Arizona forecast, at 23.5 million pounds, is 47 percent higher than last year and 12 percent above 2001. This is the high year of the alternate bearing cycle, and only non-irrigation producers report dry weather effects. Oklahoma's forecast, at 20.0 million pounds, is double the size of last year's crop, but equal to the production of the 2001 crop year. The Louisiana forecast, at 15.0 million pounds, is up 150 percent from last season and 7 percent above the 2001 crop. Adequate moisture helped the pecan crop this year. Alabama pecan production, at 8.00 million pounds, is up 60 percent from the previous year but down 47 percent from crop year 2001. Alabama's Native and seedling production is curtailed due to scab, insects, and storm activity along the coast. Grapes: U.S. grape production is forecast at 6.75 million tons, down 4 percent from the August 1 forecast and 8 percent below 2002. California leads the U.S. in grape production with 89 percent of the total. Washington and New York are the next largest producing States, with 5 percent and 3 percent, respectively. California's all grape forecast, at 5.99 million tons, is down 5 percent from the August forecast and 11 percent below 2002. Washington expects to produce 335,000 tons, 3 percent below the previous forecast but up 1 percent from 2002. New York's forecast, at a record high 210,000 tons, is up 2 percent from the previous forecast and 35 percent above last year. California's wine type grape production is expected to total 3.00 million tons, 50 percent of California's total grape crop. The production forecast for wine type varieties is down 2 percent from the August forecast and 5 percent below 2002. Fruit set was down this year, and cluster sizes were smaller than normal. Harvest is running about a week behind last year, with good quality reported. California's raisin type grape production is forecast at 2.30 million tons, 38 percent of California's total grape crop. Production of raisin varieties is 8 percent below the August forecast and down 19 percent from last year. Several days of above average temperatures in July combined with August rainfall all contributed to declines in yield. Bunch rot has been observed in some Thompson Seedless vineyards. In some areas, grapevines are being abandoned or pulled out due to economic reasons. By the end of September, approximately 95 percent of the raisin crop had been picked, 25 percent was on trays drying, and 40 percent of the trays were rolled. Picking of Thompson Seedless grapes for fresh use was still active in late September. Production of table type grapes, at 690,000 tons, is down 7 percent from both the August 1 forecast and last season. This level of production represents 12 percent of the total California crop. The extreme heat in July and late summer rainfall contributed to cracking and decay of fruit in some vineyards, resulting in lower yields. Picking continues in the San Joaquin Valley and Kern Districts with Crimson Seedless, Red Globe, Autumn Royal, Ruby Seedless, and Christmas Rose the primary varieties being harvested. The crop is reported to have good quality. Washington's production is forecast at 335,000 tons, down 3 percent from the August 1 forecast but 1 percent above 2002. The juice type grape forecast, at 210,000 tons, is 5 percent below the previous forecast and down 3 percent from last season. Harvest is well underway with good quality reported. Wine type grape production is forecast at a record high 125,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but 9 percent greater than last year. Harvest of the wine grape crop is being complicated this year by early varieties ripening later than normal and later varieties ripening earlier than normal. Some wineries are concerned about lack of capacity with the early and late varieties ripening about the same time. Quality of the crop is expected to be high. Grape production for New York is forecast at a record high 210,000 tons, up 2 percent from the August 1 forecast and 35 percent higher than 2002. Rainy weather throughout the summer helped increase fruit size. However, excessive moisture and cool temperatures have resulted in low Brix levels, causing the Concord harvest to be delayed. The Niagara harvest started late but was underway by October 1, with low Brix levels reported. On Long Island, and in the Hudson Valley and Fingerlakes Regions, harvest of the wine grape crop was well underway. Michigan's grape production is forecast at 80,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but 87 percent above 2002. Prior to October 1, an excellent year was anticipated by Concord producers. Berry counts and cluster counts were both reported to be significantly above average. However, a frost occurred on October 1 that may have seriously affected the Concord grape crop. The extent of the damage is unknown at this time. Harvest has been delayed due to low Brix levels. The Niagara harvest was complete by late September, with good yields reported. Pennsylvania's grape production is forecast at 70,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 32 percent from 2002. Abundant rainfall throughout the growing season has resulted in a crop with excellent production potential. However, the fruit is ripening slowly, and Brix levels are low. Higher levels of disease pressure have been observed due to the excess moisture. The Concord harvest is expected to begin in early to mid October. Harvest of the Niagara crop is currently underway, along with some early wine grape varieties. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.82 million pounds for September 2003, down 14 percent from last month and 21 percent below a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,365 acres, 1 percent lower than last month but 9 percent above a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,565 acres, virtually unchanged from last month but 4 percent higher than a year ago. September weather conditions were variable with heavy rains during the first two weeks followed by light showers the rest of the month. Soil moisture was adequate in non-irrigated orchards. Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecast Field Crop Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between September 24 and October 6 to gather information on expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, plant counts are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears, bolls, or pods and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 16,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields as the season progresses. Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the October 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In August and September 2003, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Field Crop Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecasts. Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the October 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain production forecast is 3.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.1 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 178 million bushels, ranging from 4 million bushels to 624 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 11 times and above 9 times. This does not imply that the October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Root Mean : 20-Year Record of : : Square Error : Differences Between Forecast : :------------------: and Final Estimate : : : :------------------------------------ Crop :Unit : : 90 : Quantity : Years : :Percent: Percent :------------------------------------ : : :Confidence: : : :Below:Above : : : Interval :Average:Smallest:Largest:Final:Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ Million ------ Number : : Corn for Grain :Bu : 3.5 6.1 178 4 624 11 9 Sorghum for Grain :Bu : 5.9 10.2 25 1 105 10 10 Rice :Cwt : 2.9 5.0 3 1 13 10 10 Soybeans for Beans:Bu : 2.8 4.9 48 2 119 8 12 Cotton 1/ :Bales: 4.1 7.2 541 31 1,424 12 8 Dry Edible Beans :Cwt : 3.3 5.7 1 0 2 16 4 Oranges 1/ :Tons : 11.5 19.8 683 18 2,387 7 13 Oranges 1/ 2/ :Tons : 5.3 9.4 447 18 917 6 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. 2/ Excluding freeze seasons. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats (202) 690-3234 Roy Karkosh - Barley, Sorghum, Sugar Crops(202) 720-8843 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Brian Young - Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Jim Smith - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-2127 Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250 Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on November 12, 2003. 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Agency representatives will provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs and will seek comments from data users. The USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service, Economic Research Service, Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board, as well as the U.S. Census Bureau's Foreign Trade Division, will also participate in the forum. For registration details or additional information about the Data Users' Forum, see the NASS homepage at www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact Karlyn McCutcheon of NASS at (202) 690-8141 or at karlyn_mccutcheon@nass.usda.gov. This Data Users' Forum precedes an Industry Outlook Meeting that will be held at the same location on October 21, 2003. The outlook meeting brings together analysts from various commodity sectors to discuss the outlook situation. For more information about the outlook meeting and to register for it, contact the Livestock Marketing Information Center at (720) 544-2941 or (720) 544-2940.