Cr Pr 2-2 (11-03) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 12, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Corn Production Up 1 Percent from October Forecast Soybean Production Down 1 Percent Cotton Production Up 4 Percent Corn production is forecast at 10.3 billion bushels, up 1 percent from last month and 14 percent above 2002. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 143.2 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from October and up 13.2 bushels from last year. If realized, both production and yield would be the largest on record. Both previous records were set in 1994. Of the major producing States, Illinois and Ohio are expecting record yields. Yields are also forecast at record highs in 8 other States located mostly in the Southeast. Soybean production is forecast at 2.45 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the October forecast and 11 percent below 2002. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 1996. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 33.8 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushel from October and down 4.2 bushels from 2002. As harvest progressed, producers realized yield decreases from last month in South Dakota, upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and eastern Corn Belt. However, in Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, the Tennessee Valley, and along the Atlantic Coastal Plains, yield prospects increased from last month. Area for harvest is forecast at 72.5 million acres, unchanged from last month but up fractionally from 2002. All cotton production is forecast at 18.2 million 480-pound bales, up 4 percent from October and up 6 percent from last year's production. Yield is expected to average a record high 722 pounds per harvested acre, up 26 pounds from last month. If realized, it will be 14 pounds above the previous record high yield established in 1994. Record high yields are expected in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Harvested area, at 12.1 million acres, is unchanged from October 1 but 3 percent below 2002. This report was approved on November 12, 2003. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Keith J. Collins Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Corn for Grain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Plant Population Per Acre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Number of Ears Per Acre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Percentage Distribution by Plant Population Per Acre. . 22 Frequency of Farmer Reported Row Width . . . . . . . . 23 Percentage Distribution by Measured Row Width and Average Row Width24 Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Cumulative Boll Counts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Lentils. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Peanuts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Peas, Austrian Winter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Peas, Dry Edible . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Fall Percent of Major Varieties Planted . . . . . . . . 13 Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . . . . . . 36 Rice, by State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 by Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Sorghum for Grain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Soybeans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Pods with Bean Per 18 Square Feet. . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Percentage Distribution by Measured Row Width and Average Row Width26 Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002 and Forecasted November 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2003 : : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels -------- --- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 180 210 88.0 112.0 115.0 15,840 24,150 AR : 260 350 134.0 140.0 140.0 34,840 49,000 CA : 150 130 170.0 170.0 170.0 25,500 22,100 CO : 720 940 156.0 148.0 148.0 112,320 139,120 DE : 167 160 83.0 138.0 131.0 13,861 20,960 GA : 290 310 115.0 135.0 135.0 33,350 41,850 IL : 11,000 11,050 136.0 169.0 169.0 1,496,000 1,867,450 IN : 5,220 5,450 121.0 148.0 150.0 631,620 817,500 IA : 11,900 12,000 165.0 156.0 159.0 1,963,500 1,908,000 KS : 2,500 2,650 116.0 123.0 123.0 290,000 325,950 KY : 1,040 1,090 102.0 140.0 140.0 106,080 152,600 LA : 560 500 122.0 135.0 135.0 68,320 67,500 MD : 425 400 76.0 131.0 131.0 32,300 52,400 MI : 2,020 2,050 115.0 129.0 129.0 232,300 264,450 MN : 6,700 6,650 157.0 143.0 143.0 1,051,900 950,950 MS : 530 530 125.0 130.0 130.0 66,250 68,900 MO : 2,700 2,800 105.0 109.0 109.0 283,500 305,200 NE : 7,350 7,750 128.0 143.0 145.0 940,800 1,123,750 NJ : 70 67 58.0 110.0 110.0 4,060 7,370 NM : 49 40 180.0 170.0 170.0 8,820 6,800 NY : 450 460 97.0 112.0 118.0 43,650 54,280 NC : 700 640 83.0 110.0 110.0 58,100 70,400 ND : 995 1,250 115.0 100.0 104.0 114,425 130,000 OH : 2,870 3,150 88.0 154.0 156.0 252,560 491,400 OK : 190 200 130.0 125.0 125.0 24,700 25,000 PA : 870 900 68.0 120.0 120.0 59,160 108,000 SC : 260 250 46.0 112.0 115.0 11,960 28,750 SD : 3,200 4,100 95.0 105.0 105.0 304,000 430,500 TN : 620 650 107.0 132.0 134.0 66,340 87,100 TX : 1,820 1,600 113.0 111.0 111.0 205,660 177,600 VA : 305 275 66.0 130.0 125.0 20,130 34,375 WA : 70 80 190.0 195.0 195.0 13,300 15,600 WI : 2,900 2,850 135.0 134.0 132.0 391,500 376,200 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 232 233 133.7 141.1 140.5 31,013 32,727 : US : 69,313 71,765 130.0 142.2 143.2 9,007,659 10,277,932 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, FL, ID, MT, OR, UT, WV, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary". Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002 and Forecasted November 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2003 : : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- 1,000 Bushels : AR : 230 215 77.0 86.0 85.0 17,710 18,275 CO : 90 210 20.0 32.0 27.0 1,800 5,670 IL : 77 105 83.0 85.0 82.0 6,391 8,610 KS : 3,000 3,100 45.0 43.0 43.0 135,000 133,300 LA : 165 165 81.0 85.0 85.0 13,365 14,025 MO : 185 210 85.0 71.0 71.0 15,725 14,910 NE : 300 510 50.0 59.0 62.0 15,000 31,620 NM : 80 90 35.0 35.0 35.0 2,800 3,150 OK : 330 250 45.0 34.0 36.0 14,850 9,000 SD : 90 150 34.0 52.0 48.0 3,060 7,200 TX : 2,550 2,600 51.0 52.0 52.0 130,050 135,200 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 202 246 69.3 79.4 77.4 14,007 19,052 : US : 7,299 7,851 50.7 51.0 51.0 369,758 400,012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AL, AZ, CA, DE, GA, KY, MD, MS, NC, PA, SC, TN, and VA. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary". Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002 and Forecasted November 1, 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 2003 : : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Pounds -------- ---- 1,000 Cwt --- : AR : 1,503 1,454 6,440 6,550 6,600 96,752 95,964 CA : 528 495 8,140 7,900 7,900 42,989 39,105 LA : 535 445 5,500 5,800 5,800 29,400 25,810 MS : 253 233 6,400 6,500 6,600 16,192 15,378 MO : 182 170 6,050 6,100 6,100 11,011 10,370 TX : 206 181 7,100 6,400 6,400 14,616 11,584 : US : 3,207 2,978 6,578 6,624 6,656 210,960 198,211 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Sweet rice acreage and production included in 2003, but not previous year. Rice: Production by Class, United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted November 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain 1/ : All : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 2001 : 167,555 46,105 1,610 215,270 2002 : 157,243 52,201 1,516 210,960 2003 2/ : 146,000 49,454 2,757 198,211 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Sweet rice production included with short grain in 2003, but not previous years. 2/ The 2003 rice production by class estimates are based on class harvested acreage estimates and the 5-year average class yield compared to the all rice yield. Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002 and Forecasted November 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2003 : : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 155 155 24.0 31.0 34.0 3,720 5,270 AR : 2,880 2,850 33.5 35.0 37.0 96,480 105,450 DE : 185 175 25.0 36.0 38.0 4,625 6,650 GA : 140 180 21.0 33.0 33.0 2,940 5,940 IL : 10,550 10,350 43.0 37.0 37.0 453,650 382,950 IN : 5,770 5,350 41.5 40.0 38.0 239,455 203,300 IA : 10,400 10,550 48.0 34.0 34.0 499,200 358,700 KS : 2,540 2,500 23.0 22.0 23.0 58,420 57,500 KY : 1,260 1,250 33.0 40.0 43.0 41,580 53,750 LA : 660 730 32.0 34.0 34.0 21,120 24,820 MD : 470 420 23.0 36.0 37.0 10,810 15,540 MI : 2,040 1,990 38.5 32.0 27.0 78,540 53,730 MN : 7,100 7,400 43.5 32.0 31.0 308,850 229,400 MS : 1,370 1,410 32.0 36.0 36.0 43,840 50,760 MO : 5,000 4,950 34.0 28.0 29.0 170,000 143,550 NE : 4,580 4,500 38.5 39.0 39.0 176,330 175,500 NJ : 97 88 23.0 30.0 33.0 2,231 2,904 NY : 144 142 32.0 37.0 37.0 4,608 5,254 NC : 1,290 1,390 24.0 30.0 31.0 30,960 43,090 ND : 2,630 3,100 33.0 28.0 28.0 86,790 86,800 OH : 4,720 4,280 31.0 41.0 40.0 146,320 171,200 OK : 250 255 26.0 25.0 25.0 6,500 6,375 PA : 390 365 26.0 40.0 40.0 10,140 14,600 SC : 415 410 17.0 24.0 27.0 7,055 11,070 SD : 4,090 4,200 31.0 30.0 29.0 126,790 121,800 TN : 1,120 1,150 31.0 38.0 40.0 34,720 46,000 TX : 205 180 28.0 26.0 26.0 5,740 4,680 VA : 440 480 23.0 34.0 34.0 10,120 16,320 WI : 1,520 1,710 44.0 30.0 28.0 66,880 47,880 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 26 28 35.6 34.9 34.9 926 976 : US : 72,437 72,538 38.0 34.0 33.8 2,749,340 2,451,759 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include FL and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary". Peanuts: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002 and Forecasted November 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 2003 : : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres -- --------- Pounds -------- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : AL : 185.0 189.0 2,050 2,900 2,900 379,250 548,100 FL : 86.0 107.0 2,300 2,900 3,000 197,800 321,000 GA : 505.0 535.0 2,600 3,200 3,400 1,313,000 1,819,000 NM : 18.0 17.0 3,000 2,900 2,900 54,000 49,300 NC : 100.0 100.0 2,100 2,800 3,000 210,000 300,000 OK : 57.0 38.0 2,800 2,900 2,800 159,600 106,400 SC : 8.7 18.0 2,200 3,200 3,400 19,140 61,200 TX : 280.0 240.0 3,100 3,300 3,300 868,000 792,000 VA : 57.0 33.0 2,100 2,800 2,900 119,700 95,700 : US : 1,296.7 1,277.0 2,561 3,095 3,205 3,320,490 4,092,700 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cottonseed: Production, United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted November 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 7,452.2 6,183.9 6,689.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2002 and Forecasted November 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 2003 : : State : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 540.0 510.0 507 753 772 570.0 820.0 AZ : 213.0 208.0 1,381 1,292 1,292 613.0 560.0 AR : 920.0 940.0 871 837 909 1,669.0 1,780.0 CA : 477.0 555.0 1,469 1,384 1,341 1,460.0 1,550.0 GA : 1,360.0 1,290.0 557 763 800 1,578.0 2,150.0 LA : 495.0 520.0 717 877 895 739.0 970.0 MS : 1,150.0 1,100.0 808 916 916 1,935.0 2,100.0 MO : 368.0 390.0 796 738 825 610.0 670.0 NM : 50.0 42.0 816 857 857 85.0 75.0 NC : 920.0 770.0 421 623 686 806.0 1,100.0 OK : 180.0 170.0 557 480 565 209.0 200.0 SC : 200.0 217.0 314 719 730 131.0 330.0 TN : 530.0 535.0 741 763 772 818.0 860.0 TX : 4,500.0 4,400.0 538 436 458 5,040.0 4,200.0 VA : 98.0 85.0 465 678 734 95.0 130.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 183.0 207.0 452 645 645 172.3 278.0 : US :12,184.0 11,939.0 651 688 715 16,530.3 17,773.0 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 8.2 3.9 1,013 1,108 1,108 17.3 9.0 CA : 209.0 139.0 1,386 1,312 1,312 603.3 380.0 NM : 7.1 6.0 1,041 960 1,040 15.4 13.0 TX : 18.3 19.5 1,110 985 985 42.3 40.0 : US : 242.6 168.4 1,342 1,257 1,260 678.3 442.0 : All : AL : 540.0 510.0 507 753 772 570.0 820.0 AZ : 221.2 211.9 1,368 1,289 1,289 630.3 569.0 AR : 920.0 940.0 871 837 909 1,669.0 1,780.0 CA : 686.0 694.0 1,444 1,369 1,335 2,063.3 1,930.0 GA : 1,360.0 1,290.0 557 763 800 1,578.0 2,150.0 LA : 495.0 520.0 717 877 895 739.0 970.0 MS : 1,150.0 1,100.0 808 916 916 1,935.0 2,100.0 MO : 368.0 390.0 796 738 825 610.0 670.0 NM : 57.1 48.0 844 870 880 100.4 88.0 NC : 920.0 770.0 421 623 686 806.0 1,100.0 OK : 180.0 170.0 557 480 565 209.0 200.0 SC : 200.0 217.0 314 719 730 131.0 330.0 TN : 530.0 535.0 741 763 772 818.0 860.0 TX : 4,518.3 4,419.5 540 439 461 5,082.3 4,240.0 VA : 98.0 85.0 465 678 734 95.0 130.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 183.0 207.0 452 645 645 172.3 278.0 : US :12,426.6 12,107.4 665 696 722 17,208.6 18,215.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3/ Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary". Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002 and Forecasted November 1, 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2003 : : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :-- 1,000 Acres -- --------- Tons -------- --- 1,000 Tons -- : CA : 49.9 50.0 39.5 37.0 37.0 1,971 1,850 CO : 39.5 27.5 20.1 23.5 23.2 794 638 ID : 210.0 207.0 24.3 27.6 29.4 5,103 6,086 MI : 177.0 175.0 18.1 18.0 18.5 3,204 3,238 MN : 476.0 464.0 18.6 19.9 20.6 8,854 9,558 MT : 55.9 52.2 19.6 25.0 25.0 1,096 1,305 NE : 42.0 42.7 18.1 20.7 20.5 760 875 ND : 258.0 278.0 18.6 21.0 21.0 4,799 5,838 OH : 1.8 1.8 20.6 24.0 24.0 37 43 OR : 11.0 9.4 27.4 29.6 29.6 301 278 WA : 4.0 4.4 35.0 40.0 40.0 140 176 WY : 36.0 33.6 18.3 21.5 22.0 659 739 : US :1,361.1 1,345.6 20.4 22.2 22.8 27,718 30,624 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA. Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002 and Forecasted November 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2003 : : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Oct 1 : Nov 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Tons -------- --- 1,000 Tons -- : FL : 461.0 441.0 38.3 40.0 40.0 17,653 17,640 HI : 22.7 22.0 95.1 95.0 95.0 2,159 2,090 LA : 495.0 490.0 28.3 30.0 30.0 14,009 14,700 TX : 44.5 44.0 38.9 36.9 36.9 1,732 1,624 : US :1,023.2 997.0 34.7 36.2 36.2 35,553 36,054 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Lentils: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : ID : 68.0 64.0 66.0 63.0 MT : 25.0 29.0 21.0 18.0 ND : 53.0 55.0 47.0 54.0 WA : 75.0 93.0 75.0 91.0 : US : 221.0 241.0 209.0 226.0 :------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 :------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Pounds ----- ----------- 1,000 Cwt ----------- : ID : 1,200 950 795 792 599 MT : 710 780 220 149 140 ND : 1,100 1,180 603 517 637 WA : 1,400 1,000 1,280 1,050 910 : US : 1,200 1,012 2,898 2,508 2,286 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry Edible Peas: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2001-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : ID : 41.0 50.0 40.0 49.0 MT : 32.0 32.0 27.0 30.0 ND : 155.0 160.0 138.0 155.0 OR : 4.7 5.0 4.7 5.0 WA : 70.0 83.0 70.0 82.0 : US : 302.7 330.0 279.7 321.0 :------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 :------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Pounds ----- ----------- 1,000 Cwt ----------- : ID : 1,600 1,200 460 640 588 MT : 760 1,270 249 205 381 ND : 1,450 1,770 1,737 2,001 2,744 OR : 1,400 1,320 77 66 66 WA : 1,900 1,500 1,240 1,330 1,230 : US : 1,517 1,560 3,763 4,242 5,009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes both wrinkled seed peas and Austrian winter peas. Austrian Winter Peas: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : ID : 11.0 10.0 7.5 8.0 MT : 9.5 9.5 3.5 3.0 OR : 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.6 : US : 21.5 20.7 11.6 11.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 :------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Pounds ----- ---------- 1,000 Cwt ---------- : ID : 1,800 1,400 68 135 112 MT : 580 850 20 20 26 OR : 1,500 1,000 9 9 6 : US : 1,414 1,241 97 164 144 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Sep : 2,170 2,365 1,500 1,565 3,585 2,820 Oct : 2,155 2,370 1,500 1,570 4,035 3,340 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Potatoes: Area Planted, Area Harvested, Yield, and Production, by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal Group: Area Planted : Area Harvested : Yield : Production and :----------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 :2002 :2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :----------- 1,000 Acres ---------- -- Cwt -- --- 1,000 Cwt -- : Winter 1/ : Total : 15.8 14.6 15.7 14.3 268 282 4,206 4,027 : Spring 1/ : Total : 87.8 85.1 86.1 82.9 271 269 23,294 22,305 : Summer 1/ : Total : 62.2 64.6 59.1 60.5 304 320 17,985 19,360 : Fall : CA : 8.2 8.4 8.2 8.4 520 410 4,264 3,444 CO : 71.6 66.3 71.5 65.7 390 360 27,885 23,652 ID : 375.0 360.0 373.0 358.0 358 344 133,385 123,180 10 SW Co : 27.0 25.0 27.0 25.0 455 465 12,285 11,625 Other ID : 348.0 335.0 346.0 333.0 350 335 121,100 111,555 IN : 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 260 250 728 675 ME : 64.0 66.0 64.0 65.5 265 260 16,960 17,030 MA : 3.3 3.0 3.2 2.8 255 275 816 770 MI : 46.5 46.0 45.5 45.0 305 325 13,878 14,625 MN : 61.0 60.0 55.0 58.0 340 385 18,700 22,330 MT : 10.5 10.7 10.4 10.6 310 320 3,224 3,392 NE : 22.0 23.5 21.8 23.0 395 400 8,611 9,200 NV : 7.6 8.3 7.6 8.0 350 420 2,660 3,360 NM : 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 400 390 1,600 1,560 NY : 22.5 22.2 22.0 21.7 250 300 5,500 6,510 ND : 118.0 117.0 102.0 112.0 230 240 23,460 26,880 OH : 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.3 215 300 903 1,290 OR : 50.0 42.8 49.8 42.6 501 493 24,936 20,991 Malheur : 8.0 5.8 8.0 5.8 400 415 3,200 2,407 Other OR : 42.0 37.0 41.8 36.8 520 505 21,736 18,584 PA : 15.0 14.5 14.0 14.0 185 295 2,590 4,130 RI : 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 235 270 118 135 SD : 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 300 340 330 340 UT : 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0 305 335 244 335 WA : 165.0 165.0 165.0 165.0 560 580 92,400 95,700 WI : 85.0 82.0 83.0 81.0 375 420 31,125 34,020 : Total :1,138.8 1,109.7 1,109.4 1,094.8 373 378 414,317 413,549 : US :1,304.6 1,274.0 1,270.3 1,252.5 362 367 459,802 459,241 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Fall Potatoes: Percent of Varieties Planted, 2003 Crop The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts variety surveys in 8 States, accounting for 88 percent of the forecast U. S. fall potato production. Colorado data are from a growers potato variety survey. The remaining 7 States conduct objective yield surveys where all producing areas were sampled in proportion to planted acreage. Variety data shown below are actual percentages from these surveys. Fall Potatoes: Percent of Major Varieties Planted, Selected States and 8 States Total, 2003 Crop ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ State :Pct. of :: State :Pct. of :: State :Pct. of and :Planted :: and :Planted :: and :Planted Varieties : Acres :: Varieties : Acres :: Varieties : Acres ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CO : :: Dakota Rose : 1.5 :: R Norkotah : 15.0 R Norkotah : 60.7 :: Goldrush : 1.5 :: Goldrush : 9.6 R Nugget : 9.0 :: R Norkotah : 1.3 :: Norland : 8.6 Centennial R : 6.6 :: Dakota Pearl : 1.0 :: Snowden : 7.9 Yukon Gold : 4.1 :: Other : 6.7 :: Silverton R : 6.2 Silverton R : 2.0 :: Total : 100.0 :: Superior : 4.3 Durango : 1.2 :: : :: Atlantic : 2.2 Keystone R : 1.0 :: ND : :: Pike : 1.9 Sangre : 0.8 :: R Burbank : 42.4 :: Ranger R : 1.5 Chipeta : 0.7 :: Shepody : 13.4 :: Shepody : 1.1 Other : 13.9 :: Norland : 8.6 :: Other : 1.9 Total : 100.0 :: Frito-Lay : 6.7 :: Total : 100.0 : :: Dakota Pearl : 4.9 :: : ID : :: Ranger R : 4.1 :: TOTAL(8 States): R Burbank : 69.2 :: La Soda : 3.3 :: R Burbank : 48.9 Ranger R : 12.9 :: NorValley : 3.0 :: Ranger R : 10.7 R Norkotah : 10.1 :: Pontiac : 2.4 :: R Norkotah : 9.1 Shepody : 1.3 :: Atlantic : 2.0 :: Shepody : 5.7 R Alturas : 1.2 :: Ivory Crisp : 1.7 :: Frito-Lay : 4.2 Other : 5.3 :: Snowden : 1.6 :: Norland : 4.0 Total : 100.0 :: La Rouge : 1.4 :: Umatilla R : 1.7 : :: R Alturas : 1.3 :: R Alturas : 1.3 ME : :: Other : 3.2 :: Snowden : 1.2 R Burbank : 33.2 :: Total : 100.0 :: Goldrush : 1.2 Frito-Lay : 11.9 :: : :: Atlantic : 1.0 Shepody : 9.7 :: OR : :: Chieftain : 0.9 Ontario : 8.3 :: R Norkotah : 25.6 :: Superior : 0.9 Superior : 6.1 :: R Burbank : 22.3 :: NorValley : 0.8 R Norkotah : 4.4 :: Ranger R : 15.4 :: Dakota Pearl : 0.8 Atlantic : 3.5 :: Shepody : 13.3 :: Ontario : 0.7 Katahdin : 2.5 :: Frito-Lay : 10.7 :: Yukon Gold : 0.6 Norwis : 2.4 :: R Alturas : 5.0 :: La Soda : 0.6 Snowden : 2.2 :: Atlantic : 4.1 :: Pontiac : 0.6 Yukon Gold : 2.0 :: Other : 3.6 :: Silverton R : 0.5 Norland : 1.9 :: Total : 100.0 :: Cascade : 0.4 Reba : 1.7 :: : :: Pike : 0.3 Goldrush : 1.6 :: WA : :: Nor Donna : 0.2 Chieftain : 1.4 :: R Burbank : 34.9 :: Gem : 0.2 Other : 7.2 :: Ranger R : 22.1 :: Katahdin : 0.2 Total : 100.0 :: R Norkotah : 11.1 :: Ivory Crisp : 0.2 : :: Shepody : 9.3 :: Norwis : 0.2 MN : :: Umatilla R : 8.2 :: La Rouge : 0.2 R Burbank : 50.7 :: Chieftain : 4.0 :: Cal White : 0.2 Norland : 21.8 :: R Alturas : 1.5 :: Rosara : 0.2 Pontiac : 3.2 :: Yukon Gold : 1.4 :: Bannock : 0.2 Shepody : 3.0 :: Cascade : 1.1 :: Sangre : 0.2 NorValley : 2.7 :: Rosara : 1.0 :: Reba : 0.2 Cascade : 2.4 :: Other : 5.4 :: Dakota Rose : 0.1 R Alturas : 2.3 :: Total : 100.0 :: Amisk : 0.1 Sangre : 1.9 :: : :: Viking : 0.1 : :: WI : :: Other : 1.4 : :: R Burbank : 20.7 :: Total : 100.0 : :: Frito-Lay : 19.1 :: : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,071.0 5,299.0 4,129.0 4,688.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 79,054.0 79,066.0 69,313.0 71,765.0 Corn for Silage : 7,490.0 Hay, All : 64,497.0 64,379.0 Alfalfa : 23,135.0 23,541.0 All Other : 41,362.0 40,838.0 Oats : 4,995.0 4,601.0 2,093.0 2,224.0 Proso Millet : 450.0 630.0 220.0 Rice : 3,240.0 3,005.0 3,207.0 2,978.0 Rye : 1,395.0 1,368.0 281.0 339.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,580.0 9,509.0 7,299.0 7,851.0 Sorghum for Silage : 352.0 Wheat, All : 60,468.0 61,700.0 45,917.0 52,839.0 Winter : 41,845.0 44,945.0 29,751.0 36,541.0 Durum : 2,909.0 2,915.0 2,703.0 2,869.0 Other Spring : 15,714.0 13,840.0 13,463.0 13,429.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,459.0 1,121.0 1,275.0 1,085.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 785.0 583.0 704.0 572.0 Mustard Seed : 191.0 96.5 175.0 94.2 Peanuts : 1,358.0 1,315.0 1,296.7 1,277.0 Rapeseed : 3.4 1.6 3.1 1.5 Safflower : 219.0 213.0 196.0 198.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,923.0 73,585.0 72,437.0 72,538.0 Sunflowers : 2,580.0 2,364.0 2,180.0 2,274.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,957.9 13,631.0 12,426.6 12,107.4 Upland : 13,714.0 13,451.0 12,184.0 11,939.0 Amer-Pima : 243.9 180.0 242.6 168.4 Sugarbeets : 1,427.3 1,364.7 1,361.1 1,345.6 Sugarcane : 1,023.2 997.0 Tobacco : 428.7 413.0 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 21.5 20.7 11.6 11.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,922.1 1,501.2 1,726.9 1,417.8 Dry Edible Peas : 302.7 330.0 279.7 321.0 Lentils : 221.0 241.0 209.0 226.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.9 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.3 0.2 Hops : 29.3 28.3 Peppermint Oil : 80.2 Potatoes, All : 1,304.6 1,274.0 1,270.3 1,252.5 Winter : 15.8 14.6 15.7 14.3 Spring : 87.8 85.1 86.1 82.9 Summer : 62.2 64.6 59.1 60.5 Fall : 1,138.8 1,109.7 1,109.4 1,094.8 Spearmint Oil : 18.0 Sweet Potatoes : 97.2 94.0 83.5 91.0 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 54.9 58.9 226,573 276,087 Corn for Grain : " : 130.0 143.2 9,007,659 10,277,932 Corn for Silage : Ton : 14.0 104,979 Hay, All : " : 2.34 2.50 150,962 160,706 Alfalfa : " : 3.19 3.34 73,824 78,523 All Other : " : 1.86 2.01 77,138 82,183 Oats : Bu : 56.7 65.0 118,628 144,649 Proso Millet : " : 12.5 2,755 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,578 6,656 210,960 198,211 Rye : Bu : 24.8 27.3 6,955 9,254 Sorghum for Grain : " : 50.7 51.0 369,758 400,012 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 9.5 3,360 Wheat, All : Bu : 35.3 44.2 1,619,001 2,336,526 Winter : " : 38.5 46.7 1,145,602 1,707,069 Durum : " : 29.4 33.7 79,450 96,637 Other Spring : " : 29.3 39.7 393,949 532,820 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,218 1,425 1,552,520 1,545,709 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,183.9 6,689.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 12,569 Mustard Seed : Lb : 705 123,450 Peanuts : " : 2,561 3,205 3,320,490 4,092,700 Rapeseed : " : 1,461 4,530 Safflower : " : 1,520 297,980 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 38.0 33.8 2,749,340 2,451,759 Sunflower : Lb : 1,142 1,152 2,489,606 2,619,497 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 665 722 17,208.6 18,215.0 Upland 2/ : " : 651 715 16,530.3 17,773.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,342 1,260 678.3 442.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.4 22.8 27,718 30,624 Sugarcane : " : 34.7 36.2 35,553 36,054 Tobacco : Lb : 2,055 2,044 880,734 844,298 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,414 1,241 164 144 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,736 1,665 29,974 23,603 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,517 1,560 4,242 5,009 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,200 1,012 2,508 2,286 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 457 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,270 7,500 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 45,000 37,000 14,400 7,400 Hops : " : 1,990 1,898 58,336.6 53,793.9 Peppermint Oil : " : 85 6,818 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 362 367 459,802 459,241 Winter : " : 268 282 4,206 4,027 Spring : " : 271 269 23,294 22,305 Summer : " : 304 320 17,985 19,360 Fall : " : 373 378 414,317 413,549 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 108 1,942 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 154 12,865 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,424 2,063 2,185 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/: " : 1 Lemons : " : 801 1,026 988 Oranges : " : 12,374 11,545 13,636 Tangelos (FL) : " : 97 106 59 Tangerines : " : 420 371 431 Temples (FL) : " : 70 59 63 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 8,555.6 9,351.6 Apricots : Ton : 90.0 90.4 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 19,500.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,364.0 6,752.4 Olives (CA) : " : 103.0 115.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 45,900.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,575.4 2,618.1 Pears : Ton : 868.5 933.3 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 171.0 190.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 15.7 14.7 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 1,090,000 1,000,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 19.5 35.0 Pecans : Lb : 172,900 281,900 Pistachios (CA) : " : 303,000 180,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 282.0 315.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,393 1,239 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,052,180 2,144,450 1,670,970 1,897,190 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,992,360 31,997,220 28,050,280 29,042,580 Corn for Silage : 3,031,130 Hay, All 3/ : 26,101,290 26,053,540 Alfalfa : 9,362,500 9,526,810 All Other : 16,738,790 16,526,730 Oats : 2,021,430 1,861,980 847,020 900,030 Proso Millet : 182,110 254,950 89,030 Rice : 1,311,200 1,216,090 1,297,840 1,205,170 Rye : 564,540 553,620 113,720 137,190 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,876,930 3,848,200 2,953,830 3,177,220 Sorghum for Silage : 142,450 Wheat, All 3/ :24,470,790 24,969,370 18,582,150 21,383,410 Winter :16,934,250 18,188,790 12,039,930 14,787,780 Durum : 1,177,240 1,179,670 1,093,880 1,161,060 Other Spring : 6,359,300 5,600,910 5,448,340 5,434,580 : Oilseeds : Canola : 590,440 453,660 515,980 439,090 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 317,680 235,930 284,900 231,480 Mustard Seed : 77,300 39,050 70,820 38,120 Peanuts : 549,570 532,170 524,760 516,790 Rapeseed : 1,380 650 1,250 610 Safflower : 88,630 86,200 79,320 80,130 Soybeans for Beans :29,915,900 29,779,110 29,314,530 29,355,400 Sunflowers : 1,044,100 956,690 882,220 920,270 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,648,620 5,516,330 5,028,920 4,899,740 Upland : 5,549,920 5,443,490 4,930,740 4,831,590 Amer-Pima : 98,700 72,840 98,180 68,150 Sugarbeets : 577,610 552,280 550,820 544,550 Sugarcane : 414,080 403,480 Tobacco : 173,470 167,140 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,700 8,380 4,690 4,690 Dry Edible Beans : 777,850 607,520 698,860 573,770 Dry Edible Peas : 122,500 133,550 113,190 129,910 Lentils : 89,440 97,530 84,580 91,460 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,390 Ginger Root (HI) : 130 80 Hops : 11,860 11,470 Peppermint Oil : 32,460 Potatoes, All 3/ : 527,960 515,580 514,080 506,870 Winter : 6,390 5,910 6,350 5,790 Spring : 35,530 34,440 34,840 33,550 Summer : 25,170 26,140 23,920 24,480 Fall : 460,860 449,080 448,960 443,050 Spearmint Oil : 7,280 Sweet Potatoes : 39,340 38,040 33,790 36,830 Taro (HI) 4/ : 170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2.95 3.17 4,933,040 6,011,080 Corn for Grain : 8.16 8.99 228,805,080 261,071,500 Corn for Silage : 31.42 95,235,350 Hay, All 2/ : 5.25 5.60 136,950,420 145,790,030 Alfalfa : 7.15 7.48 66,972,010 71,234,870 All Other : 4.18 4.51 69,978,420 74,555,160 Oats : 2.03 2.33 1,721,880 2,099,570 Proso Millet : 0.70 62,480 Rice : 7.37 7.46 9,568,990 8,990,700 Rye : 1.55 1.71 176,670 235,060 Sorghum for Grain : 3.18 3.20 9,392,290 10,160,770 Sorghum for Silage : 21.40 3,048,140 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.37 2.97 44,061,990 63,589,820 Winter : 2.59 3.14 31,178,180 46,458,800 Durum : 1.98 2.27 2,162,270 2,630,030 Other Spring : 1.97 2.67 10,721,530 14,500,980 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.36 1.60 704,210 701,120 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,609,940 6,068,160 Flaxseed : 1.12 319,270 Mustard Seed : 0.79 56,000 Peanuts : 2.87 3.59 1,506,150 1,856,420 Rapeseed : 1.64 2,050 Safflower : 1.70 135,160 Soybeans for Beans : 2.55 2.27 74,824,770 66,725,950 Sunflowers : 1.28 1.29 1,129,270 1,188,180 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.75 0.81 3,746,730 3,965,850 Upland : 0.73 0.80 3,599,050 3,869,610 Amer-Pima : 1.50 1.41 147,680 96,230 Sugarbeets : 45.65 51.02 25,145,350 27,781,630 Sugarcane : 77.89 81.06 32,253,140 32,707,640 Tobacco : 2.30 2.29 399,490 382,970 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.58 1.39 7,440 6,530 Dry Edible Beans : 1.95 1.87 1,359,600 1,070,610 Dry Edible Peas : 1.70 1.75 192,410 227,200 Lentils : 1.35 1.13 113,760 103,690 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 20,730 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.42 3,400 Ginger Root (HI) : 50.44 41.47 6,530 3,360 Hops : 2.23 2.13 26,460 24,400 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,090 Potatoes, All 2/ : 40.57 41.10 20,856,270 20,830,820 Winter : 30.03 31.56 190,780 182,660 Spring : 30.32 30.16 1,056,600 1,011,740 Summer : 34.11 35.87 815,790 878,150 Fall : 41.86 42.34 18,793,100 18,758,270 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 880 Sweet Potatoes : 17.27 583,550 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,770 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,199,020 1,871,520 1,982,200 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/ : 910 Lemons : 726,650 930,770 896,300 Oranges : 11,225,500 10,473,450 12,370,370 Tangelos (FL) : 88,000 96,160 53,520 Tangerines : 381,020 336,570 391,000 Temples (FL) : 63,500 53,520 57,150 : Noncitrus : Apples : 3,880,760 4,241,810 Apricots : 81,680 82,010 Bananas (HI) : 8,850 Grapes : 6,680,510 6,125,670 Olives (CA) : 93,440 104,330 Papayas (HI) : 20,820 Peaches : 1,168,180 1,187,550 Pears : 787,840 846,630 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 155,130 172,370 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,200 13,340 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 494,420 453,590 Hazelnuts : 17,690 31,750 Pecans : 78,430 127,870 Pistachios (CA) : 137,440 81,650 Walnuts (CA) : 255,830 285,760 Maple Syrup : 6,960 6,190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 7 corn producing States during 2003. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in these tables are rounded actual field counts from this survey. Corn for Grain: Plant Population per Acre, Selected States, 1999-2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Sep : 25,750 25,800 26,750 26,400 27,150 : Oct : 25,700 25,800 26,700 26,350 27,050 : Nov : 25,650 25,800 26,650 26,350 27,050 : Final : 25,650 25,800 26,650 26,350 : : IN : Sep : 25,250 25,050 26,100 25,350 26,050 : Oct : 25,100 25,150 25,900 25,350 25,900 : Nov : 25,100 25,150 25,950 25,300 25,900 : Final : 25,100 25,150 25,950 25,300 : : IA : Sep : 25,850 26,500 26,500 26,850 27,400 : Oct : 25,900 26,200 26,550 26,700 27,250 : Nov : 25,900 26,300 26,450 26,700 27,250 : Final : 25,900 26,300 26,450 26,700 : : MN : Sep : 26,750 27,500 28,050 26,950 28,700 : Oct : 26,800 27,250 28,000 26,850 28,800 : Nov : 26,800 27,150 28,000 26,800 28,800 : Final : 26,800 27,150 28,000 26,800 : : NE : : All : Sep : 23,200 23,700 22,750 23,250 23,800 : Oct : 23,100 23,400 22,650 23,250 23,700 : Nov : 23,100 23,400 22,750 23,350 23,700 : Final : 23,100 23,450 22,750 23,350 : : NE : : Irrigated : Sep : 26,350 27,300 26,250 26,400 26,900 : Oct : 26,250 27,000 26,100 26,450 26,700 : Nov : 26,200 27,000 26,100 26,450 26,650 : Final : 26,200 27,050 26,050 26,450 : : NE : : Non-Irrigated: Sep : 19,000 18,500 18,550 19,450 19,800 : Oct : 18,900 18,200 18,450 19,450 19,800 : Nov : 18,900 18,200 18,700 19,650 19,800 : Final : 18,900 18,200 18,700 19,650 : : OH : Sep : 25,000 25,200 26,150 24,850 25,900 : Oct : 25,050 24,900 26,100 24,450 25,900 : Nov : 25,000 24,800 26,050 24,400 25,900 : Final : 25,000 24,900 26,050 24,400 : : WI : Sep : 26,050 26,550 26,800 26,550 27,300 : Oct : 26,150 26,150 26,950 26,400 27,000 : Nov : 26,200 26,200 27,000 26,650 27,100 : Final : 26,200 26,200 27,000 26,650 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre, Selected States, 1999-2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Sep : 25,050 25,500 25,650 25,050 26,700 : Oct : 24,950 25,450 25,550 25,050 26,700 : Nov : 24,850 25,450 25,550 25,000 26,650 : Final : 24,900 25,450 25,550 25,000 : : IN : Sep : 24,350 24,500 25,500 23,900 25,350 : Oct : 23,950 24,550 25,350 23,650 25,400 : Nov : 23,900 24,650 25,400 23,650 25,350 : Final : 23,900 24,650 25,400 23,650 : : IA : Sep : 25,300 26,000 25,450 25,950 26,700 : Oct : 25,300 25,600 25,350 25,800 26,550 : Nov : 25,300 25,650 25,250 25,800 26,600 : Final : 25,300 25,650 25,250 25,800 : : MN : Sep : 26,650 27,350 27,500 26,550 28,300 : Oct : 26,700 27,350 26,750 26,150 28,650 : Nov : 26,650 27,250 26,700 26,100 28,600 : Final : 26,650 27,250 26,700 26,100 : : NE : : All : Sep : 22,800 22,800 22,200 21,650 22,950 : Oct : 22,650 22,750 21,950 21,250 22,650 : Nov : 22,600 22,700 22,050 21,200 22,600 : Final : 22,600 22,750 22,050 21,200 : : NE : : Irrigated : Sep : 25,800 26,500 25,550 25,800 26,550 : Oct : 25,600 26,350 25,350 25,700 26,350 : Nov : 25,600 26,350 25,350 25,650 26,300 : Final : 25,600 26,350 25,350 25,650 : : NE : : Non-Irrigated: Sep : 18,800 17,550 18,050 16,700 18,300 : Oct : 18,700 17,500 17,800 15,950 17,850 : Nov : 18,700 17,500 18,000 15,950 17,800 : Final : 18,700 17,500 18,000 15,950 : : OH : Sep : 24,000 24,450 25,550 23,700 25,500 : Oct : 24,100 24,250 25,250 22,400 25,700 : Nov : 24,050 23,950 25,150 22,350 25,750 : Final : 24,050 24,100 25,100 22,350 : : WI : Sep : 25,600 26,100 26,100 25,950 26,150 : Oct : 25,700 25,500 26,100 25,050 26,300 : Nov : 25,700 25,550 26,100 25,250 26,250 : Final : 25,700 25,550 26,100 25,250 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn for Grain: Percentage Distribution by Plant Population Per Acre Selected States, 1999-2003 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Plant Populations State :Year :------------------------------------------------------------- : :Less than : 20,001- : 22,501- : 25,001- : 27,501- :More than : : 20,000 : 22,500 : 25,000 : 27,500 : 30,000 : 30,000 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Percent : : IL : 1999: 6.7 9.7 21.6 29.6 23.8 8.6 : 2000: 7.7 10.0 20.7 32.1 18.8 10.7 : 2001: 4.2 9.2 19.2 28.3 26.1 13.0 : 2002: 5.6 8.9 17.8 28.3 24.9 14.5 : 2003: 3.4 4.5 16.4 30.1 28.4 17.2 : : IN : 1999: 10.6 9.3 23.6 32.9 18.0 5.6 : 2000: 8.9 12.7 25.9 27.8 16.5 8.2 : 2001: 7.1 7.7 18.6 32.0 25.0 9.6 : 2002: 10.4 8.4 20.1 32.5 18.2 10.4 : 2003: 5.5 8.0 19.6 34.4 22.1 10.4 : : IA : 1999: 6.3 10.1 22.4 24.8 25.2 11.2 : 2000: 3.6 10.8 17.2 31.4 26.2 10.8 : 2001: 5.1 6.9 20.1 27.4 25.9 14.6 : 2002: 3.6 7.8 17.4 30.3 28.1 12.8 : 2003: 1.5 7.7 14.0 27.6 32.3 16.9 : : MN : 1999: 11.1 3.1 11.1 25.9 27.8 21.0 : 2000: 6.1 7.3 11.6 19.5 28.7 26.8 : 2001: 1.9 3.7 12.3 21.6 34.0 26.5 : 2002: 4.4 5.1 16.5 29.1 29.7 15.2 : 2003: 1.2 2.4 8.4 22.3 33.2 32.5 : : NE : 1999: 28.8 14.8 17.3 17.1 15.7 6.3 : 2000: 32.2 9.5 10.6 18.8 18.5 10.4 : 2001: 25.5 13.6 14.9 16.2 21.3 8.5 : 2002: 17.5 11.8 17.0 24.8 19.7 9.2 : 2003: 16.3 10.8 17.9 24.6 20.8 9.6 : : OH : 1999: 8.1 11.7 26.1 34.3 14.4 5.4 : 2000: 11.3 12.2 17.4 30.4 21.7 7.0 : 2001: 7.8 5.2 22.4 29.2 25.9 9.5 : 2002: 16.4 16.4 21.8 20.9 20.0 4.5 : 2003: 5.0 8.9 19.8 36.6 18.8 10.9 : : WI : 1999: 4.7 10.6 24.7 18.8 27.1 14.1 : 2000: 9.3 8.1 20.9 22.2 22.1 17.4 : 2001: 5.2 9.1 13.0 27.2 23.4 22.1 : 2002: 5.9 4.7 18.8 23.5 33.0 14.1 : 2003: 6.8 8.2 13.7 19.2 30.2 21.9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn for Grain: Frequency of Farmer Reported Row Widths, Selected States, 1999-2003 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Row Width (inches) State :Year :--------------------------------------------------------------- : : Less than : : : : More than : : 30 : 30 : 36 : 38 : 38 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : 1999: 2 221 34 16 1 : 2000: 225 33 16 : 2001: 6 226 21 16 1 : 2002: 5 227 24 11 : 2003: 4 236 23 8 : : IN : 1999: 1 147 17 7 : 2000: 4 140 18 7 : 2001: 149 16 3 : 2002: 142 17 1 : 2003: 1 155 13 6 : : IA : 1999: 1 215 30 52 : 2000: 3 214 27 41 : 2001: 3 227 15 40 : 2002: 3 225 20 42 : 2003: 3 216 17 45 : : MN : 1999: 18 124 14 14 1 : 2000: 14 127 18 7 : 2001: 25 133 9 7 : 2002: 20 128 8 8 1 : 2003: 26 144 5 6 : : NE : 1999: 1 148 73 12 1 : 2000: 3 156 74 9 : 2001: 3 143 93 10 : 2002: 7 155 83 5 : 2003: 3 154 80 8 : : OH : 1999: 110 6 4 : 2000: 1 108 11 1 : 2001: 109 5 2 : 2002: 1 114 3 1 2 : 2003: 1 95 5 1 1 : : WI : 1999: 60 8 25 2 : 2000: 2 57 9 21 : 2001: 2 58 10 19 : 2002: 4 71 11 13 : 2003: 3 68 8 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Corn for Grain: Percentage Distribution by Measured Row Width and Average Row Width, Selected States, 1999-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Row Width (inches) : State :Year : Number :----------------------------------------------:Average : : of : 20.5 : 20.6- :30.6- :34.6- : 36.6- : 38.6 & : Row : :Samples :or Less: 30.5 : 34.5 : 36.5 : 38.5 :Greater : Width -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number ---------------- Percent ---------------- Inches : : IL : 1999: 269 0.4 63.6 18.6 7.4 9.3 0.7 31.4 : 2000: 273 65.6 16.8 10.3 6.2 1.1 31.3 : 2001: 261 1.5 67.1 18.0 7.7 4.6 1.1 30.9 : 2002: 269 0.7 74.4 11.9 8.2 3.7 1.1 30.8 : 2003: 268 0.7 75.8 12.3 6.7 4.1 0.4 30.7 : : IN : 1999: 161 62.7 23.0 5.0 6.8 2.5 31.3 : 2000: 158 1.9 67.7 14.6 7.0 8.2 0.6 31.0 : 2001: 156 67.3 21.2 6.4 5.1 31.0 : 2002: 154 69.5 17.5 10.4 2.6 31.0 : 2003: 163 0.6 71.1 16.6 8.0 3.1 0.6 30.9 : : IA : 1999: 286 53.6 17.1 9.8 12.9 6.6 32.5 : 2000: 279 0.7 56.3 18.6 6.8 15.8 1.8 31.9 : 2001: 274 0.7 63.2 17.2 2.9 13.1 2.9 31.6 : 2002: 281 0.4 62.2 15.3 5.7 9.6 6.8 31.8 : 2003: 272 0.7 62.7 16.5 5.1 11.0 4.0 31.7 : : MN : 1999: 162 63.5 19.8 4.3 9.3 3.1 30.6 : 2000: 164 2.4 62.3 20.1 6.1 7.3 1.8 30.5 : 2001: 162 2.5 66.7 22.2 3.1 4.3 1.2 29.5 : 2002: 158 1.9 69.5 19.0 3.2 5.1 1.3 30.0 : 2003: 166 4.2 77.7 13.3 1.8 1.8 1.2 29.1 : : NE : 1999: 227 0.4 43.3 19.8 23.3 11.0 2.2 32.6 : 2000: 224 0.4 52.3 15.6 22.3 9.4 32.1 : 2001: 235 0.9 43.8 15.3 26.4 12.3 1.3 32.7 : 2002: 229 1.3 46.3 17.0 23.6 11.8 32.3 : 2003: 240 0.8 52.6 13.3 25.0 7.9 0.4 32.2 : : OH : 1999: 111 65.8 28.8 1.8 3.6 30.6 : 2000: 116 70.7 19.0 5.2 4.3 0.8 30.9 : 2001: 116 74.1 20.7 2.6 2.6 30.7 : 2002: 110 0.9 78.2 17.3 1.8 0.9 0.9 30.3 : 2003: 101 54.4 38.6 2.0 5.0 30.9 : : WI : 1999: 85 40.0 21.2 9.4 20.0 9.4 33.1 : 2000: 86 2.3 38.4 25.6 8.1 16.3 9.3 32.6 : 2001: 77 1.3 57.1 11.7 7.8 14.3 7.8 32.2 : 2002: 85 1.2 60.0 18.8 5.9 8.2 5.9 31.3 : 2003: 73 46.6 31.5 4.1 9.6 8.2 31.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybeans: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 7 soybean producing States during 2003. Randomly selected plots in soybean fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet, Selected States, 1999-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Sep : 1,917 2,162 2,041 1,952 1,800 : Oct : 1,823 1,996 1,932 1,785 1,606 : Nov : 1,788 2,020 1,932 1,795 1,634 : Final : 1,787 2,021 1,932 1,802 : : IN : Sep : 1,771 1,917 2,003 1,773 1,786 : Oct : 1,627 1,786 1,882 1,677 1,692 : Nov : 1,622 1,784 1,880 1,680 1,582 : Final : 1,622 1,784 1,869 1,680 : : IA : Sep : 2,142 1,830 1,809 1,988 1,749 : Oct : 1,914 1,674 1,778 1,828 1,629 : Nov : 1,894 1,660 1,787 1,867 1,647 : Final : 1,878 1,660 1,796 1,867 : : MN : Sep : 1,612 1,607 1,492 1,688 1,582 : Oct : 1,555 1,509 1,433 1,785 1,417 : Nov : 1,563 1,507 1,475 1,739 1,440 : Final : 1,565 1,507 1,475 1,715 : : MO : Sep : 1,242 1,974 1,424 1,427 1,144 : Oct : 1,467 1,769 1,732 1,609 1,455 : Nov : 1,508 1,782 1,874 1,681 1,547 : Final : 1,525 1,793 1,921 1,705 : : NE : Sep : 1,877 1,795 1,961 1,548 1,727 : Oct : 1,880 1,617 1,932 1,517 1,642 : Nov : 1,872 1,619 2,003 1,587 1,636 : Final : 1,872 1,619 2,048 1,592 : : OH : Sep : 1,699 1,893 1,801 1,593 1,791 : Oct : 1,463 1,625 1,834 1,495 1,898 : Nov : 1,494 1,685 1,785 1,499 1,764 : Final : 1,494 1,697 1,785 1,492 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybeans: Percentage Distribution by Measured Row Width and Average Width, Selected States, 1999-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Row Width (inches) : State :Year : Number :--------------------------------------------: Average : : of : 10.0 & : 10.1- : 18.6- : 28.6- : 34.6 & : Row : :Samples :Less 1/ : 18.5 : 28.5 : 34.5 :Greater : Width 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number ---------------- Percent --------------- Inches : : IL : 1999: 219 44.3 31.6 3.0 16.5 4.6 15.8 : 2000: 214 44.6 36.2 0.9 16.4 1.9 14.9 : 2001: 208 41.3 33.4 1.7 22.6 1.0 16.0 : 2002: 216 36.9 44.8 2.1 14.8 1.4 15.5 : 2003: 204 35.6 45.8 3.4 14.2 1.0 15.2 : : IN : 1999: 148 68.9 19.9 0.4 8.8 2.0 11.7 : 2000: 143 73.1 17.8 2.1 7.0 0.0 10.9 : 2001: 153 70.2 19.5 1.0 8.6 0.7 11.6 : 2002: 149 57.7 31.2 2.0 8.4 0.7 12.5 : 2003: 142 56.9 33.2 1.1 8.8 0.0 12.4 : : IA : 1999: 224 18.4 25.7 7.4 41.8 6.7 22.6 : 2000: 205 19.6 25.2 7.8 43.5 3.9 21.9 : 2001: 207 16.7 27.0 9.8 39.4 7.1 22.5 : 2002: 204 14.5 26.3 7.9 45.9 5.4 23.0 : 2003: 203 13.1 32.3 6.2 43.0 5.4 22.3 : : MN : 1999: 100 22.1 26.1 12.1 33.7 6.0 20.4 : 2000: 95 23.7 19.5 12.1 42.6 2.1 20.8 : 2001: 91 14.8 25.8 17.0 41.9 0.5 21.5 : 2002: 103 19.9 24.3 20.9 33.0 1.9 20.2 : 2003: 92 19.6 31.5 10.9 36.9 1.1 19.6 : : MO : 1999: 126 40.9 34.1 6.7 14.3 4.0 15.6 : 2000: 121 33.5 40.8 8.3 15.7 1.7 15.9 : 2001: 126 31.3 43.7 2.0 19.0 4.0 16.5 : 2002: 130 24.6 48.1 6.9 16.5 3.9 17.1 : 2003: 126 24.3 50.2 5.6 17.1 2.8 16.9 : : NE : 1999: 86 13.4 23.8 5.2 40.7 16.9 24.2 : 2000: 82 17.1 26.8 6.1 34.1 15.9 23.0 : 2001: 93 19.9 30.9 8.3 26.5 14.4 21.6 : 2002: 89 16.5 29.5 5.7 31.8 16.5 22.8 : 2003: 97 10.8 29.4 5.2 44.8 9.8 24.0 : : OH : 1999: 125 78.0 15.6 1.6 4.0 0.8 10.1 : 2000: 125 77.2 19.6 1.2 2.0 0.0 9.6 : 2001: 131 67.8 21.8 3.1 6.9 0.4 11.3 : 2002: 132 71.5 23.9 1.5 2.3 0.8 10.2 : 2003: 132 69.6 27.0 0.4 3.0 0.0 10.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Broadcast soybeans included as "10.0 inches and less" but excluded in computation of average width. Cotton: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in 7 cotton producing States during 2003. Randomly selected plots in cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, and Selected States, 1999-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep : 720 874 747 840 798 : Oct : 700 767 780 763 755 : Nov : 693 755 816 784 744 : Dec : 689 755 756 772 : Final : 689 755 756 772 : : CA : Sep : 921 760 939 945 973 : Oct : 805 790 902 1,041 945 : Nov : 779 801 921 1,009 893 : Dec : 777 800 918 1,011 : Final : 776 800 918 1,011 : : GA : Sep : 596 597 590 569 559 : Oct : 582 631 677 604 646 : Nov : 621 621 651 591 643 : Dec : 636 629 664 600 : Final : 632 629 664 608 : : LA : Sep : 722 722 625 663 681 : Oct : 743 692 592 756 778 : Nov : 728 674 582 749 775 : Dec : 728 674 588 742 : Final : 728 674 588 742 : : MS : Sep : 761 657 754 802 837 : Oct : 803 665 696 783 824 : Nov : 767 652 680 768 811 : Dec : 766 650 679 767 : Final : 766 650 679 767 : : NC : Sep : 623 670 719 636 628 : Oct : 646 724 722 629 630 : Nov : 619 743 696 560 632 : Dec : 621 747 705 567 : Final : 622 747 705 564 : : TX : Sep : 465 408 441 536 465 : Oct : 446 388 435 511 431 : Nov : 447 397 439 520 429 : Dec : 455 404 445 497 : Final : 456 448 445 497 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs, per 40 feet or row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls. October Weather Summary A fairly dramatic change in the weather pattern took place across the United States in late October. The change had significant consequences in the West, where a high-pressure system settling across the Great Basin resulted in a prolonged Santa Anna wind event and helped to spark devastating, late-month wildfires across southern California. By month's end, however, cool, showery weather overspread much of the West, aiding wildfire containment efforts and building early-season mountain snow packs, but slowing or halting Northwestern winter wheat development. Meanwhile on the northern Plains, late-month rain and snow boosted topsoil moisture reserves, but frigid weather halted winter wheat germination and growth. However, a shallow to moderate snow cover provided the northern Plains' poorly established wheat with some insulation. Warm, dry conditions persisted elsewhere on the Plains, promoting summer crop harvesting but leaving much of the winter wheat crop with little moisture for autumn establishment. Farther east, Midwestern corn and soybean harvesting advanced with few delays, although cool weather temporarily slowed winter wheat emergence in the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region. Elsewhere, cooler- and wetter-than-normal weather prevailed in the Northeast and most of the southern Atlantic States, slowing summer crop maturation and harvesting in the latter region. Locally heavy rains also fell in southern Texas, providing beneficial moisture for winter agricultural interests. Mostly dry weather across the remainder of the South promoted fieldwork, including cotton, soybean, and peanut harvesting. Despite the late-month cooling trend, Western temperatures averaged as much as 8 degrees F above normal. Much of the warmth was driven by a record-setting, late-season heat wave that established at least 100 daily-record highs on 6 consecutive days from October 18-23. In contrast, a growing season-ending freeze struck the Midwest and Northeast on October 2 and 3, arriving more than 2 weeks ahead of schedule in some southern Corn Belt locations, but having little effect on maturing summer crops. Although record warmth overspread the East at month's end, October temperatures were mostly near to slightly below normal. The coolest weather, relative to normal, prevailed from the lower Great Lakes region to the interior Northeast, where October temperatures averaged as much as 4 degrees F below normal. October Crop Summary Temperatures averaged above normal across most of the Nation, though the eastern Corn Belt and Atlantic Coast States averaged slightly below normal. The beginning of the month brought freezes to the Corn Belt and northern Great Plains. By mid-month, New England, the central Great Plains, and the northern and central Rocky Mountains had freezing temperatures as well. By the end of the month, the Middle Atlantic Coast States, Ohio Valley, and Pacific Northwest experienced their first freezes, and most of the northern Rocky Mountains and northern Great Plains had snow cover. Precipitation was heaviest on the Atlantic Coast, particularly in the Northeast. The Pacific Northwest also had some heavy rainfall, but not in the crop-producing areas. Precipitation was light to moderate across the Corn Belt, Southeast, and Mississippi Delta. The Great Plains was mostly dry throughout the month, as was the Rocky Mountains, though locally heavy rains fell on some areas early in the month. The Southwest remained dry throughout the month, contributing to the wildfires across southern California. As of October 12, ninety-five percent of the corn crop was mature and 39 percent had been harvested. Maturation was 1 percentage point behind last year and 2 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest progress was 3 points ahead of last year but 5 points behind normal. By November 2, eighty-five percent of the crop was harvested, 10 points ahead of last year and 2 points ahead of the average. The crop matured rapidly early in the month, but throughout the Ohio Valley, development remained 1 week behind normal. Harvest progress was slow early in the month, as most growers focused their efforts on harvesting soybeans and planting winter wheat. By mid-month, growers in the Great Plains had switched to harvesting corn, followed shortly by those in the western Corn Belt. Eastern Corn Belt and Ohio Valley producers made little harvest progress until late in the month, and were 1 week or more behind normal as of November 2. On October 5, ninety percent of the sorghum crop was coloring, 66 percent was mature, and 42 percent was harvested. All progress stages were around 2 weeks behind normal. By October 19, coloring had reached 95 percent, but was over 3 weeks behind the normal pace. At that same time, maturation was at 78 percent and 52 percent of the crop had been harvested, both over 2 weeks behind normal. By the end of the month, 91 percent of the crop was mature and harvest had advanced to 72 percent, both still 2 weeks behind normal. Though most States were near their normal progress pace, Kansas and Texas, which together have two-thirds of the Nation's crop, remained well behind normal throughout the month. The crop remained around 2 weeks behind normal in Kansas. In Texas, the crop started the month over 4 weeks behind normal and dropped to 6 weeks behind by month's end. Eighty percent of the rice crop was harvested by October 5, compared with 81 percent at that time last year and 82 percent for the 5-year average. In Texas and Louisiana, harvest was almost complete at mid-month, with Arkansas and Mississippi close behind. By October 26, ninety-six percent had been harvested, the same as last year but 1 percentage point behind normal. California and Missouri growers made good progress throughout the month. Harvest was at or near completion in all States except California, where growers had harvested 85 percent of their crop, 6 points behind normal. As of October 12, ninety-five percent of the soybean crop was dropping leaves, the same as a year ago but 1 percentage point behind normal. At that same time, 60 percent of the crop was harvested, compared with 50 percent for last year and 58 percent for the 5-year average. By the end of the month, 91 percent of the crop was harvested, 4 points above last year but the same as the 5-year average. Early in the month, freezing temperatures in the northern Great Plains, Corn Belt, and Ohio Valley ended plant growth and promoted maturation. After the first week of the month, harvest progressed rapidly, encouraged by mostly warm, dry weather. By the month's end, harvest was complete in Iowa and the Dakotas, and was nearing completion ahead of normal across the Corn Belt, while growers in Kansas, Missouri, and the Southeast were behind the normal pace. At the beginning of the month, 22 percent of the peanut crop was harvested, 2 percentage points ahead of last year but 2 points behind normal. Harvest progressed rapidly in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, while growers in other States fell behind. North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Virginia producers accelerated their harvest activities after mid-month, as Texas producers fell to 3 weeks behind normal. By November 2, eighty-three percent of the crop had been harvested, 8 points ahead of last year and 1 point above the 5-year average. Harvest was gaining momentum in Texas, but trailed the 5-year average by almost 1 week, while all other States were at or ahead of normal. On October 5, seventy-six percent of the cotton crop had open bolls, compared with 89 percent for last year and the 5-year average. At that time, 21 percent of the crop was harvested, 2 percentage points behind a year ago and 10 points behind normal. By November 2, ninety-seven percent of the crop had bolls opening, 1 point below last year and the average, and 55 percent of the crop had been harvested, 3 points ahead of a year ago but 10 points behind normal. Development progressed slowly across the Nation and was around 2 weeks behind normal during most of the month. The crop was over 3 weeks behind in Arkansas, Missouri, and Tennessee. Harvest also progressed slowly and remained over 1 week behind normal nationwide throughout the month. By the end of the month, only California, Louisiana, and Mississippi growers were ahead of their normal pace, while producers in several States were over 2 weeks behind. At the beginning of the month, winter wheat acreage planted was at 49 percent, 2 percentage points ahead of last year and 9 points ahead of normal. Twenty percent of the crop was emerged, compared with 21 percent last year and 17 percent for the 5-year average. On October 19, eighty-two percent of the crop was planted and 61 percent had emerged, 3 and 6 percentage points ahead of normal, respectively. By the end of the month, seeding had advanced to 92 percent complete, 2 points above last year and 3 points above normal, while emergence progressed to 79 percent, the same as a year ago and 4 points ahead of normal. Early in the month, planting progressed rapidly in the Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and Great Plains, encouraged by warm, dry weather. Toward the middle of the month, planting gained momentum in the Corn Belt and Ohio Valley as harvest of summer crops advanced. By the end of the month, planting was nearing completion across the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains, with growers in the Corn Belt close behind. Emergence progressed well in the Corn Belt during the second half of the month after falling behind early. In the western half of the Nation, emergence fell behind late in the month due to lack of moisture. The first estimate of sugarbeet harvest progress, on October 5, was 40 percent, compared to 30 percent last year and 33 percent for the 5-year average. By October 19, harvest advanced to 75 percent complete, 6 percentage points ahead of a year ago and 2 points ahead of normal. By month's end, 97 percent of the crop was harvested, 5 points ahead of last year and 4 points above the average. Growers in Minnesota and North Dakota began harvesting ahead of their normal pace and were nearly finished by the end of the month. In Idaho and Michigan, growers gained momentum after temperatures fell late in the month, and were well ahead of normal by the end of the month. The sunflower crop was 17 percent harvested on October 5, seven points ahead of last year and 3 points ahead of normal. By the end of the month, harvest advanced to 93 percent complete, compared to 62 percent a year ago and 77 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest progressed rapidly in Colorado and the Dakotas, and was well ahead of normal throughout the month. However, Kansas growers made little progress until the end of the month, and progress fell 1 week behind their normal pace. Corn for grain: Area harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 71.8 million acres, unchanged from October but up 4 percent from 2002. Corn objective yield data on November 1 indicate ear counts in the combined seven objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin) are at a record high, 4 percent above the previous high in 2000 and 6 percent above last year. Indicated ear counts are the highest on record in six of the seven objective yield States. Nebraska's ear count is the third highest on record, below 1999 and 2000. Freezing temperatures during the first week of October ended crop growth in the Corn Belt and Ohio Valley, while warm weather during the second week of October accelerated maturation. Harvest progressed rapidly during mid-October, especially in Minnesota and North Dakota where farmers harvested more than 30 percent of their crop during one week. As of November 2, eighty-five percent of the corn acreage was harvested in the 18 major corn-producing States, compared with 75 percent last year and 83 percent for the average. States in the Ohio Valley were behind the 5-year average due to late planting. Sorghum: Production is forecast at 400 million bushels, virtually unchanged from the October forecast but up 8 percent from last year. Based on November 1 conditions, the sorghum yield forecast is 51.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month but up 0.3 bushel from 2002. Area for harvest as grain is forecast at 7.85 million acres, unchanged from last month but 8 percent above last year. As of November 2, harvest in the top 11 sorghum producing States was 72 percent complete, compared to 71 percent last year and the 5-year average of 86 percent. The harvest was complete in Arkansas and Louisiana, but was behind in all of the remaining States except Colorado and South Dakota. Farmers in Kansas, where harvest was 17 points behind the 5-year average, were waiting for the grain to dry down. In Texas, harvest is complete in the southern and central areas, but continues to lag well behind normal in the Plains where late planting, and slow maturity, may extend the harvest into December. Nationwide, the sorghum crop was 91 percent mature, trailing last year by 3 percentage points and the 5-year average by 7 points. Rice: Production is forecast at 198 million cwt, up fractionally from October but down 6 percent from 2002. Harvested acres, at 2.98 million, are unchanged from October but down 7 percent from 2002. As of November 1, the U.S. all rice yield is forecast at a record high 6,656 pounds per acre. This forecast yield is up 32 pounds from October and up 78 pounds from the previous record high yield set in 2002. Record high yields are forecast for Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri. As of November 2, the U.S. rice harvest was complete or nearly complete in all estimating States. Soybeans: Growers expect to harvest 72.5 million acres of soybeans, unchanged from October, but up fractionally from 2002. The November objective yield pod counts are forecasted down slightly from last month and 7 percent below last year. This is the lowest pod count since 1997 for the combined seven States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio). Pod counts are considerably below last year in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri, while counts are higher than 2002 in Nebraska and Ohio. Freezing temperatures the first week of October in the northern Great Plains, Corn Belt, and Ohio Valley ended plant growth and promoted maturation. As of November 2, ninety-one percent of the soybean acreage was harvested in the 18 major producing States. This compares with 87 percent last year and the 5-year average of 91 percent. Harvest across most of the Nation progressed rapidly, promoted by warm, dry weather. By the end of October, harvest neared completion in the western Corn Belt and northern Great Plains. Progress was nearly 1 week ahead of normal in Michigan and Wisconsin, but was over 1 week behind in Kansas and Missouri. Peanuts: Production is forecast at 4.09 billion pounds, up 4 percent from last month and up 23 percent from 2002. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.28 million acres, unchanged from the October estimate but down 2 percent from 2002. Yields are expected to average a record high 3,205 pounds per acre, 110 pounds above last month and up 644 pounds from 2002. Record high yields are forecast for Georgia, Oklahoma, and South Carolina. Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total 2.75 billion pounds, up 5 percent from last month and 44 percent above last year. Expected area for harvest, at 849,000 acres, is unchanged from last month but up 8 percent from the previous year. Yield in the 4-State area is expected to average 3,238 pounds per acre, up 143 pounds from October and 805 pounds above 2002. As of November 2, peanut harvest in Alabama stood at 94 percent complete, 6 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Florida harvest was 98 percent complete and 2 percentage points ahead of average. Georgia harvest, at 92 percent complete, was 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. The Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 396 million pounds, up 6 percent from October and up 20 percent from 2002. Area for harvest is expected to total 133,000 acres, unchanged from last month but down 15 percent from the previous year. Yield is forecast at 2,975 pounds, up 175 pounds from October and up 875 pounds from last year. Peanut harvest in North Carolina on November 2 stood at 88 percent complete, 7 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Virginia harvest, at 96 percent complete, was equal to the 5-year average. The Southwest peanut production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 948 million pounds, down less than 1 percent from October and down 12 percent from 2002. The region's area for harvest, at 295,000 acres, is unchanged from October but 17 percent below the 2002 level. Yield is forecast to average 3,213 pounds per acre for the region, 12 pounds below last month but 166 pounds above 2002. Oklahoma peanut harvest on November 2 stood at 88 percent compete, 10 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Texas harvest, at 48 percent complete, lagged the normal pace by 7 percentage points. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested area, at 11.9 million acres, is unchanged from the October estimate but 2 percent less than last year. Harvest progress continues to lag well behind the 5-year average in most States. American-Pima harvested area, at 168,400 acres, is unchanged from October but down 31 percent from 2002. In the Southeastern States, cool temperatures in early October slowed boll maturation and the effectiveness of defoliates. There were warm, sunny days later in October that aided maturity, but there were also intermittent showers throughout the month that interrupted harvest activity. Objective yield data continue to show above average boll counts in Georgia. Average boll weight is the highest of the previous five years. North Carolina boll counts and weights are near average. Cotton producers in the lower Delta region had mostly excellent harvesting weather throughout October. Heavy rains near the middle of the month halted the Louisiana harvest temporarily, but ideal conditions prevailed soon after. Interior Delta growers were concerned about the cooler temperatures early in the month. The cooler weather slowed the effect of the defoliation process. Bolls were slow to open and leaves were slow to drop. These concerns were virtually eliminated toward the end of the month as above normal temperatures prevailed, aiding the boll opening process significantly. Boll counts and average boll weights in Mississippi are the highest in the 15-year data series. Louisiana's boll counts and average boll weights are the highest since 1992 and 1996, respectively. Boll counts in Arkansas are slightly below the 15-year average and the lowest since 1999. However, Arkansas boll weights are the highest since 1994. Clear weather early in October allowed growers south of the Lubbock, Texas area to advance harvesting operations rapidly. Producers north of Lubbock held off harvesting, however, waiting for a killing freeze to defoliate their crop. Harvest activity was winding down in southern and coastal areas of Texas. Record high temperatures returned to the High Plains region during the last half of the month. Growers were able to harvest their cotton under ideal conditions. Objective yield measurements show Texas boll counts are the fourth lowest in the last 15 years. Average boll weights are the highest since 1996. The cotton harvest began in the San Joaquin Valley in early October and expanded rapidly throughout the month under ideal conditions. Arizona's harvest was well underway by October 1 and made rapid progress with the excellent harvest weather. Data from objective yield measurements show California boll counts are the third highest in the 15-year data series, surpassed only by the previous two years. Boll weights are below the 15-year average, but the highest since 1998. American-Pima production is forecast at 442,000 bales, up slightly from the October forecast but down 35 percent from last year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,260 pounds per harvested acre, up 3 pounds from last month. California growers are expecting a yield of 1,312 pounds per harvested acre, unchanged from the October 1 forecast. There was limited harvesting early in October, but growers made considerable progress by the end of the month. All cotton ginned totaled 7,395,650 running bales prior to November 1, compared with 6,696,650 running bales ginned by the same date last year and 8,806,350 running bales ginned in 2001. Sugarbeets: Production is forecast at 30.6 million tons, 2 percent above the October forecast and 10 percent above last year's production. Growers in the 12 sugarbeet-producing States expect to harvest 1.35 million acres. This is virtually unchanged from October but 1 percent below last year. The yield is forecast at 22.8 tons per acre, 0.6 ton above last month and 2.4 tons above 2002. Near ideal weather conditions throughout most of the sugarbeet growing areas have allowed for timely harvest. As of November 2, harvest was 97 percent complete in the four reporting States, compared to the 5-year average of 93 percent. The harvest in North Dakota, which had been suspended in early October due to possible storage losses caused by warm weather, is now complete. Minnesota's harvest was 99 percent complete, equal to the 5-year average. Warm days and cool nights in the northern Rocky Mountain growing areas have been favorable for building high sucrose content. In Michigan and Ohio, cooler weather after mid-month provided good storage conditions and allowed harvest to advance rapidly. Sugarcane: Production is forecast at 36.1 million tons, unchanged from the October forecast but 1 percent above last year. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 997,000 acres for sugar and seed during the 2003 crop year, unchanged from last month but 3 percent below last year's final harvested area. Yield is forecast at 36.2 tons per acre, unchanged from October but 1.5 tons above 2002. Dry weather conditions in Florida and Louisiana have been favorable for harvesting. The Louisiana harvest continues to advance smoothly while Florida growers began harvesting around mid-October. Harvesting in Texas has been slowed by heavy rain and wet field conditions. Weather in Hawaii remained relatively dry but has not yet had an influence on yields. Lentils: Production of lentils is forecast at 2.29 million cwt, down 9 percent from last year. Area for harvest is forecast at 226,000 acres, up 8 percent from the previous year. Average yield is expected to be 1,011 pounds per acre, down 189 pounds per acre from 2002. Production in Idaho, at 599,000 cwt, is down 24 percent from last year. Harvested area is down 5 percent from last season, while average yield dropped 250 pounds per acre. Dry conditions and unseasonably high temperatures caused poor development of the 2003 lentil crop. Yields were well off from normal and quality was affected by poor growing conditions. Montana's production is forecast at 140,000 cwt, a 6 percent decrease from 2002. Harvested area is down 14 percent from last season, while yields increased by 70 pounds per acre to 780. Heat and lack of rainfall prior to planting and after emergence resulted in higher abandonment than the previous year. There was timely rainfall in May and June, but extreme heat prevailed in July and August which reduced yield prospects. North Dakota's production, at 637,000 cwt, is up 23 percent from 2002. Harvested area is up 15 percent from last year, while average yield increased by 80 pounds per acre to 1,180. North Dakota experienced adequate moisture through mid-July. After mid-July, conditions turned dry and harvest conditions were favorable from August through September. Washington's production, at 910,000 cwt, is down 13 percent from 2002. Harvested area increased by 21 percent to 91,000 acres, while yields decreased by 400 pounds per acre from last year to 1,000. Washington's lentil harvest was completed during the last week of August. Producers in the principal growing areas experienced a hot, dry growing season with precipitation levels well below average. These conditions lowered yield prospects. Earlier plantings seemed to fare much better than later plantings. Crop quality is good with the majority of the crop graded as U.S. #1. Dry Edible Peas: Production of dry edible peas is estimated at 5.01 million cwt, up 18 percent from the 2002 estimate. Area for harvest, at 321,000 acres, is 15 percent above a year ago. Average yield is forecast at 1,560 pounds per acre, up 43 pounds from last season. North Dakota's dry edible pea production is forecast at 2.74 million cwt, up 37 percent from last season. North Dakota's harvested acres, at 155,000, increased by 12 percent, while yields are up 320 pounds per acre from last season. Adequate soil moisture in June helped boost yields from last year's drought reduced level. Production in Idaho is expected to be 588,000 cwt, down 8 percent from 2002. Idaho's harvested acres increased 23 percent to 49,000. However, yield, at 1,200 pounds per acre, decreased 400 pounds from last year. Hot, dry conditions affected the overall production of Idaho's dry pea crop. Yields were down and quality suffered from heat and lack of rainfall in the non-irrigated northern Idaho production area. Production in Montana, at 381,000 cwt, is up 86 percent from the 2002 estimate. Harvested acres increased by 11 percent to 30,000, while yields increased by 510 pounds per acre to 1,270. Timely rainfall was received in May and June. Although extreme heat prevailed in July and August, yields improved considerably from last season's drought reduced crop. Washington's production forecast, at 1.23 million cwt, is 8 percent below last year. Acres for harvest increased 17 percent from last season, while yield dropped by 400 pounds per acre to 1,500 pounds. Dry pea harvest in Washington was completed during the last week of August. Producers in the principal growing areas experienced a hot, dry growing season with precipitation levels in the Pullman area recording only 49 percent of normal. Crop quality was good with the majority of the crop graded as U.S. #1. Austrian Winter Peas: Production of Austrian winter peas for Idaho, Montana, and Oregon in 2003 is forecast at 144,000 cwt, down 12 percent from 2002. Area harvested is forecast at 11,600 acres, unchanged from last year. Average yield is expected to be 1,241 pounds per acre, down 173 pounds per acre from last season. The Idaho Austrian winter pea production forecast, at 112,000 cwt, is down 17 percent from last year. Conditions were poor in the State's northern non-irrigated production area. High summer temperatures, combined with little rainfall, reduced production. Montana's production forecast of 26,000 cwt is up 30 percent from last year's drought devastated crop. Although Montana continued to suffer drought conditions throughout the 2003 growing season, yields were up 270 pounds from last season's poor yielding crop. Oregon's production forecast, at 6,000 cwt, is 33 percent below the 2002 crop. Drought conditions in the growing areas of the State resulted in low yields and production. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.34 million pounds for October, 18 percent higher than last month but 17 percent lower than last October. Area in crop totaled 2,370 acres, virtually unchanged from last month but 10 percent more than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,570 acres, virtually unchanged from last month but 5 percent higher than October 2002. Weather conditions were variable during the month of October. Conditions were dry during the first week of October. Light rainfall during the middle of the month helped replenish soil moisture in non-irrigated orchards. Dry conditions returned the last week which slowed progress of new plantings. Fall Potatoes: Production of fall potatoes for 2003 is forecast at 414 million cwt, virtually unchanged from last year but 5 percent greater than the 2001 crop. Area harvested, at 1.09 million acres, is virtually unchanged from the July estimate but down 1 percent from last year. The average yield is forecast at 378 cwt per acre, 5 cwt above last year and 11 cwt greater than the 2001 season. Production estimates are generally higher this year in the Central and Eastern States but lower in the West. Harvest is progressing on schedule in nearly all of the Central and Western States, while Eastern States have been delayed by wet weather. Most growers reported good growing conditions and high quality tubers this season. Western States production is forecast at 276 million cwt, down 5 percent from last year but 4 percent above 2001. Acreage harvested, at 663,300 acres, decreased 4 percent from last year, and the average yield of 416 cwt per acre is down 5 cwt from 2002. California's production is down 19 percent due to hot weather and poor seed quality which also reduced yields. Colorado's production decreased 15 percent as farmers reduced planted acreage to conserve underground water supplies following drought conditions during the past two years. Idaho's production decreased 8 percent from last year due to above normal summer temperatures which adversely affected tuber development. Higher yields in Washington, due to excellent growing conditions, increased production 4 percent from last season. Washington harvest was 100 percent complete by the first week of November. Production in Nevada rose 26 percent from last year, while New Mexico went down 2 percent. Production fell 16 percent in Oregon where drought conditions prevailed all summer, severely reducing topsoil moisture and resulting in lower yields. Montana and Utah production went up 5 percent and 37 percent, respectively, from last year. Central States production is forecast at 109 million cwt, up 12 percent from last year and 7 percent above 2001. Harvested area, estimated at 327,000 acres, is up 4 percent and the average yield of 334 cwt per acre is up 24 cwt from a year ago. Indiana is the only State in the Central Region with decreased production and that by 7 percent. The other 7 States, when compared with last season, increased production ranging from 3 percent in South Dakota to 43 percent in Ohio. Minnesota was up 19 percent, North Dakota increased 15 percent, Wisconsin rose 9 percent, Nebraska went up 7 percent, and production in Michigan increased 5 percent. Eastern States production is forecast at 28.6 million cwt, up 10 percent from last year and 8 percent above two years ago. Area for harvest totaled 104,500 acres, 1 percent above last year, and the average yield, at 273 cwt per acre, is up 22 cwt from last season. Maine production is up less than 1 percent from last year, while Massachusetts is down 6 percent. Production in New York and Rhode Island rose 18 percent and 14 percent, respectively, from last year. Pennsylvania had the largest percentage increase in production, at 59 percent, due to drought conditions in 2002 which made yields lower than usual last year. All Potatoes: Total U. S. potato production in 2003 from all four seasons is estimated at 459 million cwt, virtually unchanged from last year. Harvested area, at 1.25 million acres, decreased 1 percent from a year ago. Yields, averaging 367 cwt per acre, are up 5 cwt from last year. Florida Citrus: Florida rainfall totals for the month were near normal levels with most areas receiving light amounts throughout the month. Cumulative amounts for the year are still above normal levels. Temperatures were cool early in the month; however, temperatures turned warmer later in the month with highs in the upper 80's. Growers began to irrigate on a regular basis during the last half of the month to maintain surface soil moisture levels. Drying winds at the end of the month resulted in slight dehydration of trees. Overall, citrus crops in all areas made excellent progress with no major problems reported. Good to excellent fruit sizes were reported. Fresh fruit crops were sprayed regularly to control insect populations. Growers and caretakers conducted routine cultural practices including weed and cover crop control and dead tree removal and replacement. Most fresh fruit packinghouses opened to receive Navel, Ambersweet, and Hamlin oranges, white and colored grapefruit, and Fallglo and Sunburst tangerines. By the end of the month, Fallglo tangerine shipments were mostly complete. Several processors opened to receive packinghouse eliminations. By the end of the month, field run early oranges were delivered in volume amounts. Harvest labor began to arrive for the large early-midseason crop. California Citrus: Harvest of the 2002-03 Valencia orange crop continued to wind down. Much of the fruit was sent to processors for juice. Warm temperatures throughout October delayed color development in new crop Navels. Lemons were harvested in the Coachella Valley. Early variety Mandarins were harvested and pummelo picking increased. Grapefruit harvesting continued in the southern coastal areas of the State. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Fruit growers conducted cultural activities that included weed control, fungicide applications, and irrigation of trees and vines. Raisin grape harvest continued throughout the month and was virtually complete by month's end. Only a few vineyards had rolled trays waiting to be picked up. Mechanical harvesting of dried on the vine raisins continued. Late variety grapes for fresh market use were harvested throughout October. Varieties picked and packed included Crimson Seedless, Thompson Seedless, Red Globe, and Autumn Royal. Unharvested fruit was covered with plastic for protection from potential rain damage. Wine and juice grape harvesting continued but was nearing completion. Stone fruit harvest continued at a reduced pace throughout October. Varieties picked and packed included Prima Gattie and Last Tango peaches, Autumn Jewel and Angeleno plums, and Arctic Mist nectarines. Fall pruning commenced in many harvested stone fruit orchards. Harvest of Granny Smith and Pink Lady apple varieties continued. Foothill and Wonderful pomegranates, Fuya and Hachiya persimmons, and Shinko Asian pears were harvested. Strawberry plants continued to grow steadily in Fresno County and were being irrigated and weeded. Olive harvest continued throughout the month but was winding down by month's end. Walnuts, almonds, and pistachios were harvested, windrowed, and hauled to processors. Harvested almond orchards were irrigated and some early pruning was underway. Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecast Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between October 25 and November 5 to gather information on expected yield as of November 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, plant counts are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears, bolls, or pods and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 13,400 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. These growers will be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields as the season progresses. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published November 1 forecasts. Revision Policy: The November 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the November 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the November 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the November 1 corn for grain production forecast is 1.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 1.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 2.8 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the November 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the November 1 forecast and the final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 80 million bushels, ranging from 1 million bushels to 258 million bushels. The November 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times. This does not imply that the November 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of November 1 Crop Production Forecasts -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Root Mean : 20-Year Record of : : Square Error : Differences Between Forecast : :------------------: and Final Estimate : : : :------------------------------------ Crop :Unit : : 90 : Quantity : Years : :Percent: Percent :------------------------------------ : : :Confidence: : : :Below:Above : : : Interval :Average:Smallest:Largest:Final:Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ Million ----- Number : : Corn For Grain :Bu : 1.6 2.8 80 1 258 9 11 Sorghum for Grain :Bu : 4.6 8.0 20 1 86 8 12 Rice :Cwt : 2.3 4.0 2 0 12 11 9 Soybeans for Beans:Bu : 2.0 3.5 33 8 99 7 13 Cotton 1/ :Bales: 3.0 5.2 387 14 937 11 9 Fall Potatoes :Cwt : 2.0 3.4 6 1 16 17 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats (202) 690-3234 Roy Karkosh - Barley, Sorghum, Sugar Crops(202) 720-8843 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Brian Young - Crop Weather (202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Jim Smith - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-2127 Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250 Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on December 11, 2003. 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