Cr Pr 2-2 (12-03) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 11, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Cotton Production Unchanged from November All Orange Production Unchanged from October All cotton production is forecast at 18.2 million 480-pound bales, unchanged from November 1 but up 6 percent from last year's production. Yield is expected to average a record high 722 pounds per harvested acre, surpassing the previous record of 708 pounds set in 1994. Record high yields are expected in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Harvested area, at 12.1 million acres, is unchanged from November 1 but 3 percent below 2002. The U.S. all orange December forecast for the 2003-04 crop is 13.6 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 18 percent from last season's final utilization. While Florida's all orange forecast remains unchanged at 252 million boxes (11.3 million tons), offsetting changes occurred between varieties. Early and midseason varieties are reduced 3 million boxes, to 134 million boxes (6.03 million tons), 2 percent less than the October 1 forecast. The growth rate has slowed. Fruit size is now expected to be smaller than previously estimated but still near the 10 season average. Fruit drop is slightly higher than average. The Valencia forecast is increased 3 million boxes to 118 million boxes (5.31 million tons), up 3 percent from the previous forecast. Fruit size is above average while fruit drop is below the previous 10 season average. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the October forecasts. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2003-04 season is unchanged from the October 1 forecast at 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is near last season's 1.54 gallons per box final yield. The record high yield is 1.63 gallons from the 1998-99 season. Projected juice yield for the 2003-04 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on December 11, 2003. Acting Secretary of Agriculture James R. Moseley Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Beans, Dry Edible. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Coffee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts. . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Cottonseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Pecans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . . . . . . 31 Sugarcane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2002 and Forecasted December 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 2003 : : State : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Nov 1 : Dec 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 540.0 510.0 507 772 772 570.0 820.0 AZ : 213.0 208.0 1,381 1,292 1,292 613.0 560.0 AR : 920.0 940.0 871 909 909 1,669.0 1,780.0 CA : 477.0 555.0 1,469 1,341 1,297 1,460.0 1,500.0 GA : 1,360.0 1,290.0 557 800 800 1,578.0 2,150.0 LA : 495.0 520.0 717 895 942 739.0 1,020.0 MS : 1,150.0 1,100.0 808 916 916 1,935.0 2,100.0 MO : 368.0 390.0 796 825 849 610.0 690.0 NM : 50.0 42.0 816 857 857 85.0 75.0 NC : 920.0 770.0 421 686 686 806.0 1,100.0 OK : 180.0 170.0 557 565 536 209.0 190.0 SC : 200.0 217.0 314 730 730 131.0 330.0 TN : 530.0 535.0 741 772 772 818.0 860.0 TX : 4,500.0 4,400.0 538 458 458 5,040.0 4,200.0 VA : 98.0 85.0 465 734 734 95.0 130.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 183.0 207.0 452 645 645 172.3 278.0 : US :12,184.0 11,939.0 651 715 715 16,530.3 17,783.0 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 8.2 3.9 1,013 1,108 1,108 17.3 9.0 CA : 209.0 139.0 1,386 1,312 1,278 603.3 370.0 NM : 7.1 6.0 1,041 1,040 1,040 15.4 13.0 TX : 18.3 19.5 1,110 985 985 42.3 40.0 : US : 242.6 168.4 1,342 1,260 1,231 678.3 432.0 : All : AL : 540.0 510.0 507 772 772 570.0 820.0 AZ : 221.2 211.9 1,368 1,289 1,289 630.3 569.0 AR : 920.0 940.0 871 909 909 1,669.0 1,780.0 CA : 686.0 694.0 1,444 1,335 1,293 2,063.3 1,870.0 GA : 1,360.0 1,290.0 557 800 800 1,578.0 2,150.0 LA : 495.0 520.0 717 895 942 739.0 1,020.0 MS : 1,150.0 1,100.0 808 916 916 1,935.0 2,100.0 MO : 368.0 390.0 796 825 849 610.0 690.0 NM : 57.1 48.0 844 880 880 100.4 88.0 NC : 920.0 770.0 421 686 686 806.0 1,100.0 OK : 180.0 170.0 557 565 536 209.0 190.0 SC : 200.0 217.0 314 730 730 131.0 330.0 TN : 530.0 535.0 741 772 772 818.0 860.0 TX : 4,518.3 4,419.5 540 461 461 5,082.3 4,240.0 VA : 98.0 85.0 465 734 734 95.0 130.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 183.0 207.0 452 645 645 172.3 278.0 : US :12,426.6 12,107.4 665 722 722 17,208.6 18,215.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3/ Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2003 Summary". Cottonseed: Production, United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted December 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 7,452.2 6,183.9 6,689.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Oct : 2,155 2,370 1,500 1,570 4,035 3,340 Nov : 2,155 2,375 1,490 1,575 4,135 3,180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2001-2002, 2002-2003 and Forecasted December 1, 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :---------------------------------------------------------- : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 :2003-04 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 270 200 220 10 8 8 CA 4/ : 32,000 41,000 39,000 1,200 1,538 1,463 FL : 128,000 112,000 134,000 5,760 5,040 6,030 TX 4/ : 1,530 1,350 1,300 65 57 55 US : 161,800 154,550 174,520 7,035 6,643 7,556 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 250 270 250 9 10 9 CA 4/ : 19,500 21,000 20,000 731 788 750 FL : 102,000 91,000 118,000 4,590 4,095 5,310 TX 4/ : 210 220 250 9 9 11 US : 121,960 112,490 138,500 5,339 4,902 6,080 All : AZ 4/ : 520 470 470 19 18 17 CA 4/ : 51,500 62,000 59,000 1,931 2,326 2,213 FL : 230,000 203,000 252,000 10,350 9,135 11,340 TX 4/ : 1,740 1,570 1,550 74 66 66 US : 283,760 267,040 313,020 12,374 11,545 13,636 Temples : FL : 1,550 1,300 1,400 70 59 63 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 18,900 16,200 17,000 803 689 723 Colored Seedless : FL : 27,800 22,500 24,000 1,182 956 1,020 All : AZ 4/ : 160 130 90 5 4 3 CA 4/ : 5,900 5,600 5,500 198 188 184 FL : 46,700 38,700 41,000 1,985 1,645 1,743 TX 4/ : 5,900 5,650 5,300 236 226 212 US : 58,660 50,080 51,890 2,424 2,063 2,142 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 620 430 600 23 16 23 CA 4/ 6/ : 2,200 2,500 2,500 83 94 94 FL 7/ : 6,600 5,500 6,700 314 261 318 US : 9,420 8,430 9,800 420 371 435 Lemons : AZ 4/ : 2,800 3,000 3,000 106 114 114 CA 4/ : 18,300 24,000 23,000 695 912 874 US : 21,100 27,000 26,000 801 1,026 988 Tangelos : FL : 2,150 2,350 1,300 97 106 59 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecasts. 5/ Includes seedy. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 7/ 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 through 2003-04 includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey varieties only. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2001-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 88.0 92.0 79.0 85.0 89.0 77.0 CO : 115.0 92.0 80.0 105.0 70.0 73.0 ID : 75.0 95.0 80.0 73.0 93.0 78.0 KS : 15.0 18.0 12.0 14.0 14.5 11.0 MI : 215.0 270.0 170.0 130.0 265.0 165.0 MN : 115.0 170.0 115.0 105.0 150.0 110.0 MT : 43.5 26.9 19.0 28.5 23.0 17.0 NE : 160.0 185.0 155.0 148.0 165.0 148.0 NM : 15.0 8.0 10.0 15.0 8.0 10.0 NY : 23.0 25.0 25.0 22.3 24.5 24.0 ND : 440.0 790.0 540.0 400.0 690.0 520.0 OR : 10.0 9.8 7.0 9.5 9.1 6.0 SD : 18.0 21.0 8.0 17.0 16.0 7.5 TX : 30.0 37.5 50.0 26.4 32.5 44.0 UT : 6.1 1.8 5.6 5.7 0.3 5.2 WA : 34.0 41.0 27.5 34.0 41.0 27.5 WI : 6.3 7.1 6.6 6.1 7.0 6.6 WY : 27.0 32.0 34.0 24.0 29.0 32.0 : US : 1,435.9 1,922.1 1,423.7 1,248.5 1,726.9 1,361.8 :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per Acre 2/ : Production 2/ :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 :-------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ---------- 1,000 Cwt --------- : CA : 1,760 1,980 1,920 1,496 1,762 1,477 CO : 1,700 2,170 1,600 1,785 1,519 1,168 ID : 1,950 2,050 2,050 1,424 1,907 1,599 KS : 1,850 1,100 2,100 259 160 231 MI : 600 1,850 1,500 780 4,903 2,475 MN : 1,500 1,650 1,700 1,575 2,475 1,870 MT : 1,320 1,570 1,680 376 361 286 NE : 2,150 2,100 2,130 3,185 3,465 3,151 NM : 2,000 1,800 1,860 300 144 186 NY : 870 1,360 1,860 194 333 446 ND : 1,550 1,540 1,500 6,200 10,626 7,800 OR : 1,810 1,730 1,650 172 157 99 SD : 1,590 1,630 1,770 270 261 133 TX : 1,320 970 1,170 348 315 513 UT : 300 1,670 310 17 5 16 WA : 1,700 2,000 1,910 578 820 525 WI : 1,800 1,960 1,970 110 137 130 WY : 2,140 2,150 2,320 514 624 742 : US : 1,569 1,736 1,678 19,583 29,974 22,847 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2/ Clean Basis. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Large Lima - CA : 14.8 19.0 19.6 14.5 18.2 19.0 : Baby Lima - CA : 12.2 21.5 17.5 11.5 21.0 17.1 : Navy : ID : 3.0 5.4 3.7 2.9 5.3 3.6 MI : 65.0 85.0 40.0 30.0 84.0 38.0 MN : 48.0 67.0 36.0 44.0 58.0 35.0 NE : 2.9 1.0 2.7 1.0 ND : 95.0 180.0 75.0 85.0 151.0 71.0 OR : 0.5 0.5 SD : 1.3 4.0 1.6 1.1 3.9 1.5 WY : 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 : Total : 213.3 345.3 158.8 163.8 305.7 151.5 : Great Northern : ID : 4.2 3.1 3.5 4.1 3.0 3.4 MI : 8.0 3.0 8.0 3.5 3.0 8.0 MN : 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.2 NE : 84.0 77.8 84.2 79.0 67.7 79.1 ND : 8.0 5.8 8.0 7.5 4.9 7.8 WA : 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.9 WY : 3.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 1.6 2.3 : Total : 109.5 93.8 108.4 98.7 82.1 102.7 : Small White : ID : 0.9 2.0 0.7 0.9 1.9 0.7 OR : 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 WA : 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.3 : Total : 1.8 3.3 1.5 1.8 3.2 1.5 : Pinto : CA : 0.5 0.5 CO : 98.0 76.0 68.0 89.0 57.0 63.0 ID : 22.2 35.8 31.5 21.5 35.0 30.8 KS : 13.5 12.0 12.6 11.0 MI : 7.0 9.5 11.0 4.5 9.5 10.5 MN : 13.0 25.0 21.0 12.0 22.0 20.0 MT : 11.5 13.5 13.0 10.0 12.9 13.0 NE : 53.5 80.7 50.0 47.5 76.0 48.5 NM : 15.0 8.0 10.0 15.0 8.0 10.0 ND : 286.0 515.0 410.0 261.0 460.0 397.0 OR : 2.1 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.3 1.5 SD : 2.0 3.2 1.9 2.0 2.8 1.8 TX : 1.0 5.5 1.0 0.9 4.5 0.5 UT : 6.1 1.8 5.6 5.7 0.3 5.2 WA : 4.2 11.0 7.0 4.2 11.0 7.0 WY : 22.0 27.0 29.0 20.0 25.0 27.5 : Total : 557.1 813.3 673.2 507.8 725.3 647.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre 1/ : Production 1/ and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ------- 1,000 Cwt ------- : Large Lima - CA : 2,250 1,840 1,970 326 334 374 : Baby Lima - CA : 2,040 2,390 2,340 235 501 400 : Navy : ID : 2,170 2,250 2,360 63 119 85 MI : 570 1,930 1,560 170 1,620 592 MN : 1,620 1,800 1,750 713 1,043 612 NE : 2,520 2,300 68 23 ND : 1,560 1,550 1,640 1,327 2,340 1,164 OR : 1,600 8 SD : 2,270 2,460 1,600 25 96 24 WY : 1,630 2,250 2,560 13 18 23 : Total : 1,411 1,735 1,671 2,311 5,304 2,531 : Great Northern : ID : 2,150 2,170 2,320 88 65 79 MI : 570 2,000 1,680 20 60 134 MN : 1,440 1,200 2,080 13 12 25 NE : 2,260 1,900 2,200 1,786 1,286 1,743 ND : 1,710 1,510 1,760 128 74 137 WA : 2,250 2,220 2,220 27 20 20 WY : 1,840 1,750 2,090 46 28 48 : Total : 2,136 1,882 2,129 2,108 1,545 2,186 : Small White : ID : 2,220 2,000 2,000 20 38 14 OR : 2,200 2,400 2,000 11 12 10 WA : 2,000 1,880 2,000 8 15 6 : Total : 2,167 2,031 2,000 39 65 30 : Pinto : CA : 1,200 6 CO : 1,720 2,250 1,610 1,530 1,282 1,015 ID : 2,420 2,380 2,280 521 833 702 KS : 1,860 2,100 234 231 MI : 510 1,930 1,430 23 183 150 MN : 1,300 1,350 1,650 156 297 329 MT : 2,000 2,220 1,950 200 287 254 NE : 2,210 2,250 2,100 1,050 1,709 1,019 NM : 2,000 1,800 1,860 300 144 186 ND : 1,550 1,560 1,480 4,050 7,184 5,864 OR : 2,420 2,310 2,000 46 30 30 SD : 2,250 2,610 2,110 45 73 38 TX : 1,670 640 1,600 15 29 8 UT : 300 1,670 310 17 5 16 WA : 2,240 2,550 2,300 94 280 161 WY : 2,200 2,180 2,330 440 544 641 : Total : 1,717 1,776 1,644 8,721 12,880 10,650 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Clean Basis. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Light Red : Kidney : CA : 6.2 6.0 5.0 6.2 6.0 4.9 CO : 9.0 10.0 8.0 8.4 8.0 7.0 ID : 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.6 1.3 1.0 MI : 18.0 15.0 16.0 11.0 14.5 15.5 MN : 8.2 7.6 10.0 7.7 7.2 9.4 NE : 11.5 14.0 14.0 11.0 13.7 13.9 NY : 13.3 15.0 14.1 13.1 14.7 13.4 WA : 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.4 : Total : 67.8 70.3 68.1 59.0 66.8 65.1 : Dark Red : Kidney : CA : 2.5 2.5 0.9 2.5 2.5 0.9 ID : 1.9 1.4 0.9 1.8 1.4 0.9 MI : 9.0 8.5 9.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 MN : 31.0 42.0 27.0 29.0 38.0 26.0 NY : 1.2 2.0 1.1 1.2 2.0 1.1 ND : 5.0 7.0 5.0 4.7 5.1 4.6 WI : 6.3 7.1 6.6 6.1 7.0 6.6 : Total : 56.9 70.5 50.5 52.3 64.0 49.1 : Pink : CA : 0.9 0.9 ID : 4.9 10.8 12.9 4.8 10.6 12.6 MN : 6.6 8.9 8.5 5.6 8.3 8.0 ND : 4.0 9.0 8.5 3.8 7.8 7.7 WA : 4.5 6.1 4.3 4.5 6.1 4.3 : Total : 20.0 34.8 35.1 18.7 32.8 33.5 : Small Red : ID : 3.8 10.7 11.5 3.7 10.5 11.2 MI : 12.0 11.0 19.0 6.5 11.0 19.0 MN : 2.8 1.5 2.4 1.3 WA : 3.0 6.4 3.7 3.0 6.4 3.7 : Total : 18.8 30.9 35.7 13.2 30.3 35.2 : Cranberry : CA : 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.5 ID : 2.6 2.5 1.9 2.6 2.5 1.9 MI : 26.0 20.0 12.0 12.0 19.0 12.0 MN : 0.6 0.5 : Total : 30.7 24.2 15.4 16.6 23.2 15.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre 1/ : Production 1/ and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ------- 1,000 Cwt ------ : Light Red : Kidney : CA : 1,450 1,270 1,330 90 76 65 CO : 1,610 2,030 1,460 135 162 102 ID : 1,670 1,920 1,600 10 25 16 MI : 770 1,790 1,540 85 260 239 MN : 1,490 1,940 1,490 115 140 140 NE : 1,900 2,300 2,100 209 315 292 NY : 850 1,300 1,890 112 191 253 WA : 2,000 2,140 20 30 : Total : 1,315 1,795 1,700 776 1,199 1,107 : Dark Red : Kidney : CA : 1,600 1,640 1,780 40 41 16 ID : 1,890 1,860 1,560 34 26 14 MI : 430 1,630 1,330 30 130 120 MN : 1,500 1,700 1,850 435 646 480 NY : 830 1,350 1,820 10 27 20 ND : 1,450 1,330 1,520 68 68 70 WI : 1,800 1,960 1,970 110 137 130 : Total : 1,390 1,680 1,731 727 1,075 850 : Pink : CA : 1,000 9 ID : 2,270 2,080 2,270 109 220 286 MN : 1,050 1,600 1,600 59 133 128 ND : 1,550 1,590 1,690 59 124 130 WA : 2,200 2,130 2,350 99 130 101 : Total : 1,743 1,851 1,952 326 607 654 : Small Red : ID : 2,240 2,150 2,080 83 226 233 MI : 420 1,890 1,470 27 208 280 MN : 1,080 1,150 26 15 WA : 2,070 2,270 2,320 62 145 86 : Total : 1,303 1,997 1,744 172 605 614 : Cranberry : CA : 2,000 1,350 1,670 30 23 25 ID : 1,540 1,840 1,100 40 46 21 MI : 580 1,530 1,180 70 290 142 MN : 1,400 7 : Total : 886 1,547 1,221 147 359 188 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Clean Basis. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :------------------------------------------------------------ State : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Black : CA : 0.4 0.4 ID : 0.6 4.0 1.3 0.6 3.9 1.3 MI : 63.0 110.0 45.0 52.0 108.0 43.0 MN : 2.0 11.9 4.9 1.3 10.0 4.6 NE : 1.1 2.3 1.0 1.0 2.1 1.0 NY : 6.7 6.0 8.2 6.3 5.8 7.9 ND : 19.0 60.0 22.0 18.0 51.0 21.0 WA : 2.0 2.6 1.5 2.0 2.6 1.5 : Total : 94.4 196.8 84.3 81.2 183.4 80.7 : Blackeye : CA : 12.0 12.6 16.5 12.0 12.4 16.1 TX : 20.0 22.0 34.0 17.5 20.0 30.0 : Total : 32.0 34.6 50.5 29.5 32.4 46.1 : Small Chickpeas 1/ : (Garbanzo, Smaller : than 20/64 in.) : CA : ID : 1.7 1.6 MT : 2.5 1.7 NE : ND : 1.0 0.9 OR : SD : 1.0 0.8 WA : 0.3 0.3 : Total : 6.5 5.3 : Large Chickpeas 1/: (Garbanzo, Larger : than 20/64 in) : CA : 9.7 9.4 ID : 7.6 7.2 MT : 3.0 2.0 NE : 2.2 2.0 ND : 4.0 3.8 OR : 2.4 2.0 SD : 0.8 0.7 WA : 7.9 7.9 : Total : 37.6 35.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre 1/ : Production 1/ and :------------------------------------------------------------ State : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : Black : CA : 1,750 7 ID : 2,170 1,950 1,850 13 76 24 MI : 640 1,880 1,580 335 2,030 680 MN : 1,230 1,300 1,700 16 130 78 NE : 2,200 1,810 2,000 22 38 20 NY : 940 1,570 1,800 59 91 142 ND : 1,600 1,350 1,320 288 689 277 WA : 2,500 2,310 2,270 50 60 34 : Total : 964 1,698 1,564 783 3,114 1,262 : Blackeye : CA : 2,420 2,520 2,210 290 313 356 TX : 1,500 1,150 1,300 263 230 390 : Total : 1,875 1,676 1,618 553 543 746 : Small Chickpeas 2/ : (Garbanzo, Smaller : than 20/64 in.) : CA : ID : 1,000 16 MT : 820 14 NE : ND : 1,560 14 OR : SD : 1,130 9 WA : 1,000 3 : Total : 1,057 56 : Large Chickpeas 2/ : (Garbanzo, Larger : than 20/64 in) : CA : 1,085 102 ID : 960 69 MT : 700 14 NE : 700 14 ND : 1,580 60 OR : 1,200 24 SD : 1,140 8 WA : 1,020 81 : Total : 1,063 372 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Clean Basis. 2/ Estimates began in 2003. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :-------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Chickpeas, All : (Garbanzo) : CA : 29.0 18.5 9.7 27.0 18.0 9.4 ID : 28.8 17.0 9.3 28.0 16.6 8.8 MT : 31.5 12.7 5.5 18.0 9.6 3.7 NE : 6.3 2.2 6.0 2.0 ND : 19.0 8.6 5.0 16.5 6.2 4.7 OR : 5.0 4.0 2.4 4.7 3.7 2.0 SD : 12.1 10.3 1.8 11.3 5.8 1.5 WA : 17.0 11.0 8.2 17.0 11.0 8.2 : Total : 148.7 82.1 44.1 128.5 70.9 40.3 : Other : CA : 9.8 10.2 6.5 9.8 9.2 6.3 CO : 8.0 6.0 4.0 7.6 5.0 3.0 ID : 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.0 1.8 KS : 1.5 18.0 1.4 14.5 MI : 7.0 8.0 10.0 3.5 8.0 10.0 MN : 4.5 3.6 4.8 4.0 3.1 4.5 MT : 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 NE : 3.6 7.3 2.6 3.5 2.8 2.5 NY : 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.6 ND : 4.0 4.6 6.5 3.5 4.0 6.2 OR : 2.4 4.0 1.9 2.4 3.6 1.5 SD : 2.6 3.5 2.7 2.6 3.5 2.7 TX : 9.0 10.0 15.0 8.0 8.0 13.5 WA : 0.7 0.8 1.6 0.7 0.8 1.6 WY : 1.0 2.0 1.5 0.7 1.6 1.3 : Total : 57.9 81.7 61.0 51.4 67.6 56.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --continued Dry Edible Beans: Yield and Production by Commercial Class, State, and Total, 2001-2003 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield per Acre 1/ : Production 1/ and :------------------------------------------------------------ State : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- Pounds --------- ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : Chickpeas, All : (Garbanzo) : CA : 1,270 1,600 1,085 342 288 102 ID : 1,470 1,280 966 412 212 85 MT : 950 740 757 171 71 28 NE : 800 700 48 14 ND : 1,400 1,470 1,574 231 91 74 OR : 1,340 760 1,200 63 28 24 SD : 1,250 430 1,130 141 25 17 WA : 1,200 1,120 1,024 204 123 84 : Total : 1,254 1,182 1,062 1,612 838 428 : Other : CA : 1,460 2,020 1,860 143 186 117 CO : 1,580 1,500 1,700 120 75 51 ID : 2,070 2,100 2,220 31 21 40 KS : 1,790 1,100 25 160 MI : 570 1,530 1,380 20 122 138 MN : 1,530 1,550 1,400 61 48 63 MT : 1,000 600 1,330 5 3 4 NE : 2,000 1,750 1,600 70 49 40 NY : 760 1,200 1,940 13 24 31 ND : 1,400 1,400 1,350 49 56 84 OR : 2,170 2,420 1,800 52 87 27 SD : 2,270 1,910 2,000 59 67 54 TX : 880 700 850 70 56 115 WA : 2,000 2,130 2,060 14 17 33 WY : 2,140 2,130 2,310 15 34 30 : Total : 1,453 1,487 1,456 747 1,005 827 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Clean Basis. Pecans: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2001-2002 and Forecasted December 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds Improved Varieties 1/ : AL : 10,000 4,000 7,000 AZ : 21,000 16,000 23,500 AR 2/ : 1,950 1,200 1,800 CA 2/ : 3,700 3,800 3,700 FL 2/ : 1,200 500 500 GA : 85,000 42,000 50,000 LA : 3,500 2,000 5,000 MS 2/ : 3,000 2,100 3,500 NM : 60,000 36,000 55,000 NC 2/ : 2,700 1,500 2,100 OK : 2,000 1,500 2,000 SC 2/ : 2,500 120 1,300 TX : 50,000 20,000 49,000 : US : 246,550 130,720 204,400 : Native & Seedling : AL : 5,000 1,000 1,000 AR 2/ : 650 500 1,500 FL 2/ : 2,100 900 1,600 GA : 25,000 3,000 10,000 KS 2/ : 2,200 2,900 2,300 LA : 10,500 4,000 10,000 MS 2/ : 1,500 900 1,500 NC 2/ : 500 400 400 OK : 18,000 8,500 10,000 SC 2/ : 1,500 80 200 TX : 25,000 20,000 21,000 : US : 91,950 42,180 59,500 : All Pecans : AL : 15,000 5,000 8,000 AZ : 21,000 16,000 23,500 AR 2/ : 2,600 1,700 3,300 CA 2/ : 3,700 3,800 3,700 FL 2/ : 3,300 1,400 2,100 GA : 110,000 45,000 60,000 KS 2/ : 2,200 2,900 2,300 LA : 14,000 6,000 15,000 MS 2/ : 4,500 3,000 5,000 NM : 60,000 36,000 55,000 NC 2/ : 3,200 1,900 2,500 OK : 20,000 10,000 12,000 SC 2/ : 4,000 200 1,500 TX : 75,000 40,000 70,000 : US : 338,500 172,900 263,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2002 and Forecasted December 1, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2003 : : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : : : : Nov 1 : Dec 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Tons -------- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 442.0 421.0 38.3 39.5 16,929 16,630 HI : 21.3 20.5 99.0 99.2 2,109 2,034 LA : 465.0 460.0 28.3 30.0 13,160 13,800 TX : 43.6 42.4 39.1 37.0 1,705 1,569 : US : 971.9 943.9 34.9 36.1 33,903 34,033 : For Seed : FL : 19.0 20.0 38.1 40.0 724 800 HI : 1.4 1.5 35.5 37.6 50 56 LA : 30.0 30.0 28.3 30.0 849 900 TX : 0.9 1.4 30.0 35.0 27 49 : US : 51.3 52.9 32.2 34.1 1,650 1,805 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 461.0 441.0 38.3 40.0 39.5 17,653 17,430 HI : 22.7 22.0 95.1 95.0 95.0 2,159 2,090 LA : 495.0 490.0 28.3 30.0 30.0 14,009 14,700 TX : 44.5 43.8 38.9 36.9 36.9 1,732 1,618 : US :1,023.2 996.8 34.7 36.2 36.0 35,553 35,838 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Coffee: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Hawaii 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- :2001-02:2002-03:2003-04:2001-02:2002-03:2003-04:2001-02:2002-03:2003-04 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Acres ------- ------- Pounds ------ ---- 1,000 Pounds --- : HI : 6,300 5,900 5,900 1,270 1,270 1,470 8,000 7,500 8,700 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Parchment basis. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,071.0 5,299.0 4,129.0 4,688.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 79,054.0 79,066.0 69,313.0 71,765.0 Corn for Silage : 7,490.0 Hay, All : 64,497.0 64,379.0 Alfalfa : 23,135.0 23,541.0 All Other : 41,362.0 40,838.0 Oats : 4,995.0 4,601.0 2,093.0 2,224.0 Proso Millet : 450.0 630.0 220.0 Rice : 3,240.0 3,005.0 3,207.0 2,978.0 Rye : 1,395.0 1,368.0 281.0 339.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,580.0 9,509.0 7,299.0 7,851.0 Sorghum for Silage : 352.0 Wheat, All : 60,468.0 61,700.0 45,917.0 52,839.0 Winter : 41,845.0 44,945.0 29,751.0 36,541.0 Durum : 2,909.0 2,915.0 2,703.0 2,869.0 Other Spring : 15,714.0 13,840.0 13,463.0 13,429.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,459.0 1,121.0 1,275.0 1,085.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 785.0 583.0 704.0 572.0 Mustard Seed : 191.0 96.5 175.0 94.2 Peanuts : 1,358.0 1,315.0 1,296.7 1,277.0 Rapeseed : 3.4 1.6 3.1 1.5 Safflower : 219.0 213.0 196.0 198.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,923.0 73,585.0 72,437.0 72,538.0 Sunflowers : 2,580.0 2,364.0 2,180.0 2,274.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,957.9 13,631.0 12,426.6 12,107.4 Upland : 13,714.0 13,451.0 12,184.0 11,939.0 Amer-Pima : 243.9 180.0 242.6 168.4 Sugarbeets : 1,427.3 1,364.7 1,361.1 1,345.6 Sugarcane : 1,023.2 996.8 Tobacco : 428.7 413.0 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 21.5 20.7 11.6 11.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,922.1 1,423.7 1,726.9 1,361.8 Dry Edible Peas : 302.7 330.0 279.7 321.0 Lentils : 221.0 241.0 209.0 226.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.9 5.9 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.3 0.2 Hops : 29.3 28.3 Peppermint Oil : 80.2 Potatoes, All : 1,304.6 1,274.0 1,270.3 1,252.5 Winter : 15.8 14.6 15.7 14.3 Spring : 87.8 85.1 86.1 82.9 Summer : 62.2 64.6 59.1 60.5 Fall : 1,138.8 1,109.7 1,109.4 1,094.8 Spearmint Oil : 18.0 Sweet Potatoes : 97.2 94.0 83.5 91.0 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 54.9 58.9 226,573 276,087 Corn for Grain : " : 130.0 143.2 9,007,659 10,277,932 Corn for Silage : Ton : 14.0 104,979 Hay, All : " : 2.34 2.50 150,962 160,706 Alfalfa : " : 3.19 3.34 73,824 78,523 All Other : " : 1.86 2.01 77,138 82,183 Oats : Bu : 56.7 65.0 118,628 144,649 Proso Millet : " : 12.5 2,755 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,578 6,656 210,960 198,211 Rye : Bu : 24.8 27.3 6,955 9,254 Sorghum for Grain : " : 50.7 51.0 369,758 400,012 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 9.5 3,360 Wheat, All : Bu : 35.3 44.2 1,619,001 2,336,526 Winter : " : 38.5 46.7 1,145,602 1,707,069 Durum : " : 29.4 33.7 79,450 96,637 Other Spring : " : 29.3 39.7 393,949 532,820 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,218 1,425 1,552,520 1,545,709 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,183.9 6,689.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 12,569 Mustard Seed : Lb : 705 123,450 Peanuts : " : 2,561 3,205 3,320,490 4,092,700 Rapeseed : " : 1,461 4,530 Safflower : " : 1,520 297,980 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 38.0 33.8 2,749,340 2,451,759 Sunflower : Lb : 1,142 1,152 2,489,606 2,619,497 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 665 722 17,208.6 18,215.0 Upland 2/ : " : 651 715 16,530.3 17,783.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,342 1,231 678.3 432.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 20.4 22.8 27,718 30,624 Sugarcane : " : 34.7 36.0 35,553 35,838 Tobacco : Lb : 2,055 2,044 880,734 844,298 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,414 1,241 164 144 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,736 1,678 29,974 22,847 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,517 1,560 4,242 5,009 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,200 1,012 2,508 2,286 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 457 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,270 1,470 7,500 8,700 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 45,000 37,000 14,400 7,400 Hops : " : 1,990 1,898 58,336.6 53,793.9 Peppermint Oil : " : 85 6,818 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 362 367 459,802 459,241 Winter : " : 268 282 4,206 4,027 Spring : " : 271 269 23,294 22,305 Summer : " : 304 320 17,985 19,360 Fall : " : 373 378 414,317 413,549 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 108 1,942 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 154 12,865 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 6,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,424 2,063 2,142 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/: " : 1 Lemons : " : 801 1,026 988 Oranges : " : 12,374 11,545 13,636 Tangelos (FL) : " : 97 106 59 Tangerines : " : 420 371 435 Temples (FL) : " : 70 59 63 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 8,555.6 9,351.6 Apricots : Ton : 90.0 90.4 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 19,500.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,364.0 6,752.4 Olives (CA) : " : 103.0 115.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 45,900.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,575.4 2,618.1 Pears : Ton : 868.5 933.3 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 171.0 190.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 15.7 14.7 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 1,090,000 1,000,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 19.5 35.0 Pecans : Lb : 172,900 263,900 Pistachios (CA) : " : 303,000 180,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 282.0 315.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,393 1,239 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 2001-2002, 2002-2003, and 2003-2004. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,052,180 2,144,450 1,670,970 1,897,190 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,992,360 31,997,220 28,050,280 29,042,580 Corn for Silage : 3,031,130 Hay, All 3/ : 26,101,290 26,053,540 Alfalfa : 9,362,500 9,526,810 All Other : 16,738,790 16,526,730 Oats : 2,021,430 1,861,980 847,020 900,030 Proso Millet : 182,110 254,950 89,030 Rice : 1,311,200 1,216,090 1,297,840 1,205,170 Rye : 564,540 553,620 113,720 137,190 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,876,930 3,848,200 2,953,830 3,177,220 Sorghum for Silage : 142,450 Wheat, All 3/ :24,470,790 24,969,370 18,582,150 21,383,410 Winter :16,934,250 18,188,790 12,039,930 14,787,780 Durum : 1,177,240 1,179,670 1,093,880 1,161,060 Other Spring : 6,359,300 5,600,910 5,448,340 5,434,580 : Oilseeds : Canola : 590,440 453,660 515,980 439,090 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 317,680 235,930 284,900 231,480 Mustard Seed : 77,300 39,050 70,820 38,120 Peanuts : 549,570 532,170 524,760 516,790 Rapeseed : 1,380 650 1,250 610 Safflower : 88,630 86,200 79,320 80,130 Soybeans for Beans :29,915,900 29,779,110 29,314,530 29,355,400 Sunflowers : 1,044,100 956,690 882,220 920,270 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,648,620 5,516,330 5,028,920 4,899,740 Upland : 5,549,920 5,443,490 4,930,740 4,831,590 Amer-Pima : 98,700 72,840 98,180 68,150 Sugarbeets : 577,610 552,280 550,820 544,550 Sugarcane : 414,080 403,390 Tobacco : 173,470 167,140 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,700 8,380 4,690 4,690 Dry Edible Beans : 777,850 607,520 698,860 573,770 Dry Edible Peas : 122,500 133,550 113,190 129,910 Lentils : 89,440 97,530 84,580 91,460 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,390 Ginger Root (HI) : 130 80 Hops : 11,860 11,470 Peppermint Oil : 32,460 Potatoes, All 3/ : 527,960 515,580 514,080 506,870 Winter : 6,390 5,910 6,350 5,790 Spring : 35,530 34,440 34,840 33,550 Summer : 25,170 26,140 23,920 24,480 Fall : 460,860 449,080 448,960 443,050 Spearmint Oil : 7,280 Sweet Potatoes : 39,340 38,040 33,790 36,830 Taro (HI) 4/ : 170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2002-2003 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2.95 3.17 4,933,040 6,011,080 Corn for Grain : 8.16 8.99 228,805,080 261,071,500 Corn for Silage : 31.42 95,235,350 Hay, All 2/ : 5.25 5.60 136,950,420 145,790,030 Alfalfa : 7.15 7.48 66,972,010 71,234,870 All Other : 4.18 4.51 69,978,420 74,555,160 Oats : 2.03 2.33 1,721,880 2,099,570 Proso Millet : 0.70 62,480 Rice : 7.37 7.46 9,568,990 8,990,700 Rye : 1.55 1.71 176,670 235,060 Sorghum for Grain : 3.18 3.20 9,392,290 10,160,770 Sorghum for Silage : 21.40 3,048,140 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.37 2.97 44,061,990 63,589,820 Winter : 2.59 3.14 31,178,180 46,458,800 Durum : 1.98 2.27 2,162,270 2,630,030 Other Spring : 1.97 2.67 10,721,530 14,500,980 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.36 1.60 704,210 701,120 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,609,940 6,068,160 Flaxseed : 1.12 319,270 Mustard Seed : 0.79 56,000 Peanuts : 2.87 3.59 1,506,150 1,856,420 Rapeseed : 1.64 2,050 Safflower : 1.70 135,160 Soybeans for Beans : 2.55 2.27 74,824,770 66,725,950 Sunflowers : 1.28 1.29 1,129,270 1,188,180 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.75 0.81 3,746,730 3,965,850 Upland : 0.73 0.80 3,599,050 3,871,790 Amer-Pima : 1.50 1.38 147,680 94,060 Sugarbeets : 45.65 51.02 25,145,350 27,781,630 Sugarcane : 77.89 80.60 32,253,140 32,511,690 Tobacco : 2.30 2.29 399,490 382,970 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.58 1.39 7,440 6,530 Dry Edible Beans : 1.95 1.88 1,359,600 1,036,320 Dry Edible Peas : 1.70 1.75 192,410 227,200 Lentils : 1.35 1.13 113,760 103,690 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 20,730 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.42 1.65 3,400 3,950 Ginger Root (HI) : 50.44 41.47 6,530 3,360 Hops : 2.23 2.13 26,460 24,400 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,090 Potatoes, All 2/ : 40.57 41.10 20,856,270 20,830,820 Winter : 30.03 31.56 190,780 182,660 Spring : 30.32 30.16 1,056,600 1,011,740 Summer : 34.11 35.87 815,790 878,150 Fall : 41.86 42.34 18,793,100 18,758,270 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 880 Sweet Potatoes : 17.27 583,550 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,770 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2003 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,199,020 1,871,520 1,943,190 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/ : 910 Lemons : 726,650 930,770 896,300 Oranges : 11,225,500 10,473,450 12,370,370 Tangelos (FL) : 88,000 96,160 53,520 Tangerines : 381,020 336,570 394,630 Temples (FL) : 63,500 53,520 57,150 : Non-Citrus : Apples : 3,880,760 4,241,810 Apricots : 81,680 82,010 Bananas (HI) : 8,850 Grapes : 6,680,510 6,125,670 Olives (CA) : 93,440 104,330 Papayas (HI) : 20,820 Peaches : 1,168,180 1,187,550 Pears : 787,840 846,630 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 155,130 172,370 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,200 13,340 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 494,420 453,590 Hazelnuts : 17,690 31,750 Pecans : 78,430 119,700 Pistachios (CA) : 137,440 81,650 Walnuts (CA) : 255,830 285,760 Maple Syrup : 6,960 6,190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 2001-2002, 2002-2003, and 2003-2004. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Cotton: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in 7 cotton producing States during 2003. Randomly selected plots in cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, and Selected States, 1999-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep : 720 874 747 840 798 : Oct : 700 767 780 763 755 : Nov : 693 755 816 784 744 : Dec : 689 755 756 772 744 : Final : 689 755 756 772 : : CA : Sep : 921 760 939 945 973 : Oct : 805 790 902 1,041 945 : Nov : 779 801 921 1,009 893 : Dec : 777 800 918 1,011 893 : Final : 776 800 918 1,011 : : GA : Sep : 596 597 590 569 559 : Oct : 582 631 677 604 646 : Nov : 621 621 651 591 643 : Dec : 636 629 664 600 665 : Final : 632 629 664 608 : : LA : Sep : 722 722 625 663 681 : Oct : 743 692 592 756 778 : Nov : 728 674 582 749 775 : Dec : 728 674 588 742 775 : Final : 728 674 588 742 : : MS : Sep : 761 657 754 802 837 : Oct : 803 665 696 783 824 : Nov : 767 652 680 768 811 : Dec : 766 650 679 767 808 : Final : 766 650 679 767 : : NC : Sep : 623 670 719 636 628 : Oct : 646 724 722 629 630 : Nov : 619 743 696 560 632 : Dec : 621 747 705 567 632 : Final : 622 747 705 564 : : TX : Sep : 465 408 441 536 465 : Oct : 446 388 435 511 431 : Nov : 447 397 439 520 429 : Dec : 455 404 445 497 435 : Final : 456 448 445 497 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs, per 40 feet or row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls. November Weather Summary The Plains' poorly established winter wheat crop endured unfavorable conditions for much of November. Across the southern half of the Plains, mostly dry weather accompanied sharp temperature fluctuations, stressing wheat but favoring autumn fieldwork. Cold weather was more consistent on the northern High Plains, where a widespread, generally shallow snow cover provided wheat with some protection from periodic Arctic outbreaks. The snow also improved topsoil moisture on the northern High Plains, but provided little relief from long-term precipitation deficits. Similar conditions were noted from the Rockies westward, where widespread precipitation boosted early-season snow packs and was beneficial for Northwestern winter wheat. However, the Western moisture provided little, if any, relief from the multi-year, hydrological drought across the Great Basin, Southwest, and Rocky Mountain States. Farther east, dry conditions persisted in the upper Midwest, but significant rain fell along and south of a line from Iowa (excluding the northwest part of the State) to Michigan. Wet fields in Michigan and elsewhere in the eastern Corn Belt slowed late-season corn harvesting, but maintained adequate to locally excessive soil moisture for winter wheat. Meanwhile, autumn fieldwork neared completion from the Delta westward, where locally heavy, late-month showers aided pastures and winter grains. Mostly dry weather prevailed, however, in the southern Atlantic region, allowing winter wheat planting and cotton and soybean harvesting to proceed with few delays. Monthly temperatures averaged as much as 11 degrees F below normal on the northern Plains, suppressed by persistent snow cover and several cold outbreaks. Cool weather also prevailed in the West (as much as 5 degrees F below normal), excluding the southern Rockies. In contrast, mild conditions were prevalent across the South and East, where readings generally ranged from 1 to 5 degrees F above normal. November Crop Summary Temperatures averaged above normal across most of the eastern half of the Nation during November, though freezing temperatures reached as far south as the Gulf Coast. The southern and central Great Plains and southern Rocky Mountains had normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Average temperatures were below normal in the Pacific Northwest, Southwest, and western Corn Belt. In the northern and central Rocky Mountains and northern Great Plains, temperatures were well below normal, averaging less than 30 degrees Fahrenheit across most of those regions. Precipitation was moderate in the Southeast, except along the Atlantic Coast, where dry conditions prevailed. Rainfall was also moderate across most of the Northeast, Ohio Valley, central Corn Belt, and Mississippi Delta, with pockets of heavy precipitation in the southern Appalachians and Louisiana. The Great Plains and Southwest had very little precipitation throughout the month. In the Rocky Mountains, rainfall was light in most areas but pockets of moderate precipitation existed in some locations. Though rainfall was heavy in the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest, crop-producing areas of the region had only light precipitation. As of November 16, ninety-five percent of the corn crop was harvested, 3 percentage points ahead of last year at this time but the same as the 5-year average. Weather conditions were generally favorable for harvest across most of the major producing areas, and harvest progress was well ahead of normal across the northern Great Plains and in Colorado. Harvest was well behind normal in the eastern Corn Belt and Ohio Valley, despite rapid progress during the month. Progress was over 1 week behind normal in Indiana and Michigan. The sorghum crop continued to lag behind normal during November. By midmonth, 95 percent of the crop was mature, compared with 99 percent a year ago and 100 percent for the 5-year average. On November 23, eighty-eight percent of the crop was harvested, 1 percentage point behind last year and 8 points behind normal. In Texas, where much of the crop was planted late behind a failed cotton crop, maturity and harvest were 5 weeks behind normal. Kansas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma producers were over 1 week behind their normal harvest pace. Harvest was complete or nearly complete in all other States. As of November 9, soybean harvest was 95 percent complete, 5 percentage points ahead of last year and 1 point ahead of the 5-year average. Soybean harvest approached completion across most of the Corn Belt, ahead of the normal pace. However, harvest remained active in Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, and Tennessee, where producers were well behind their normal harvest pace. At midmonth, 95 percent of the peanut crop was harvested, compared with 86 percent a year ago and 92 percent for the normal. With little rain to slow fieldwork, harvest progressed rapidly early in the month. Harvest was at or near completion by midmonth in the Southeast and along the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Texas growers, at 80 percent, had made the least progress to that point but were ahead of their normal pace of 72 percent and well ahead of last year's 58 percent. At the beginning of the month, 97 percent of the cotton crop had reached the bolls opening stage, slightly behind last year and the 5-year average of 98 percent. At that time, 55 percent of the crop was harvested, over 1 week behind normal. By November 23, the cotton harvest, at 78 percent complete, was still 1 week behind normal. Harvest progress steadily advanced, promoted by generally favorable weather conditions, but trailed the normal pace due to the crop's late development and maturity. Missouri producers were 2 weeks behind their normal harvest progress, while 6 other States were over 1 week behind. Louisiana growers had completed their harvest by midmonth, followed a week later by Mississippi producers. Both States finished ahead of their normal pace. Growers in Alabama and California were also harvesting their crop ahead of the normal pace. On November 9, ninety-five percent of the winter wheat acreage was planted, 3 percentage points above last year and the average. By November 23, acreage emerged, at 92 percent, was 1 point ahead of last year and 3 points ahead of normal. Most States began the month ahead of their normal planting pace and, by November 23, emergence was at or near completion throughout most of the Corn Belt and Great Plains. However, dry, cold conditions slowed emergence in the northern Rocky Mountains and Pacific Northwest. In some areas, cold weather brought on dormancy before emergence could be completed. The sugarbeet harvest was 97 percent complete on November 2, five percentage points ahead of a year ago and 4 points ahead of normal. North Dakota growers had completed their harvest, with Minnesota producers close behind, at 99 percent complete. Idaho and Michigan growers were well ahead of normal, with 90 and 94 percent of their crop harvested, respectively. On November 9, the sunflower crop was 97 percent harvested, compared with 75 percent last year and 87 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest was well ahead of normal and nearly complete in the Dakotas and was 21 percentage points ahead of normal in Colorado. Kansas producers, however, continued to lag behind their normal pace. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested area, at 11.9 million acres, is unchanged from the November estimate but 2 percent less than last year. American-Pima harvested area, at 168,400 acres, is also unchanged from November but down 31 percent from the 2002 harvested acres. In the Southeastern States, growers were able to make significant harvest progress despite the frequent showers. Early November temperatures were above normal in North Carolina and Virginia, which enabled more of the top crop to open. Objective yield data show above average boll counts in Georgia and the highest average boll weight of the previous five years. North Carolina boll counts and average weight remain near average. The Delta Region cotton harvest continued under optimal conditions. Lower Delta growers were virtually done with the harvest by the middle of the month and north Delta producers made significant progress. Boll counts and average boll weights in Mississippi remain the highest in the 15-year data series. Louisiana's boll counts are the highest since 1992. Average weight per boll is above average. Boll counts in Arkansas continue slightly below the 15-year average and the lowest since 1999. However, Arkansas boll weights are the highest since 1994. A series of cold fronts passed through Texas and Oklahoma during the first half of November interrupting the cotton harvest. Clear weather returned and the harvest resumed. However, regrowth on some acreage forced some producers to re-apply defoliants rather than wait for the killing freeze. Objective yield measurements show Texas boll counts are the lowest since 1995. Average boll weights, however, are the highest in the 15-year data series. Harvest of upland cotton in California was nearing completion by the end of November despite the cool, wet conditions early in the month. The Arizona harvest was delayed due to frequent scattered showers. Arizona producers are as much as two weeks behind in the cotton harvest. Data from objective yield measurements show California boll counts are the third highest in the 15-year data series, surpassed only by the previous two years. Boll weights are below the 15-year average, but the highest since 1998. American-Pima production is forecast at 432,000 bales, down 2 percent from the November forecast and 36 percent lower than last year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,231 pounds per harvested acre. California growers are expecting a yield of 1,278 pounds. Harvest progressed normally during most of November. Mid-month rains briefly interrupted the harvest in California and central Arizona. Scattered showers toward the end of November slowed the harvest in Arizona, New Mexico, and west Texas areas. All cotton ginned prior to December 1 totaled 13,477,200 running bales, compared with 12,367,650 running bales ginned by the same date last year and 15,564,150 running bales ginned in 2001. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.18 million pounds for November, 5 percent lower than last month and 23 percent below a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,375 acres, virtually unchanged from last month but 10 percent more than November 2002. Harvested area totaled 1,575 acres, virtually unchanged from last month but 6 percent higher than last November. Weather conditions were variable during November with cooler temperatures, shorter days, and cloudy skies slowing crop progress. Soil moisture was adequate in non-irrigated orchards. Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is forecast at 22.8 million cwt for 2003, down 3 percent from the October forecast and 24 percent below last year. Harvested acreage is forecast at 1.36 million acres, 4 percent below the last forecast and down 21 percent from 2002. The average U.S. yield is forecast at 1,678 pounds per acre, an increase of 13 pounds from the October forecast but 58 pounds below a year ago. Production is below a year ago in 12 of the 18 producing States. Most notable is a 50 percent production decrease in Michigan where planted acres are the lowest on record. Also, Oregon's production is down 49 percent due to drought conditions. Production is down from a year ago for black, small white, navy, garbanzo, cranberry, small lima, dark red kidney, pinto, and light red kidney. Production increased from last year for great northern, blackeye, large lima, pink, and small red. Production in North Dakota is forecast at 7.8 million cwt, 27 percent below 2002. The average yield, at 1,500 pounds per acre, is down 40 pounds from last year and harvested acres decreased 25 percent. Harvest was virtually complete by the second week of October. Mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures helped to push the crop harvest ahead of average by a week. In Michigan, production is forecast at 2.48 million cwt, 50 percent below last year. The average yield of 1,500 pounds per acre is 350 pounds below 2002. Planted acreage of 170,000 acres is a record low for the State. Harvest of dry beans began in early September. Dry conditions before harvest helped to lessen the effect of white mold but had a negative effect on pod fill. New York produced 446,000 cwt of dry beans, 34 percent above last season. Growing conditions were excellent this year. Nebraska's production is forecast at 3.15 million cwt, down 9 percent from 2002. Average yield in Nebraska is forecast at 2,130 pounds per acre, 30 pounds more than last year. However, harvested area is 10 percent below last season. Production in Colorado, at 1.17 million cwt, is down 23 percent from 2002. The average yield of 1,600 pounds per acre is 570 pounds below 2002. Growing conditions were generally good for irrigated acres, but dryland beans were stressed from high temperatures in July and a general lack of moisture for most of the growing season. In Idaho, production is forecast at 1.60 million cwt, a decrease of 16 percent from 2002. Average yield, at 2,050 pounds per acre, is unchanged from last year. Severe heat in July adversely affected some classes but the majority of beans in Idaho were unaffected. The Washington dry bean crop is 36 percent lower than last year with lower yields and less harvested acreage. Production in California is forecast at 1.48 million cwt, down 16 percent from 2002. The season began well but extremely hot weather during mid-season lowered yields. Texas dry bean production is forecast at 513,000 cwt, up 63 percent from last year. A large amount of acreage was planted to dry beans in June and July following failed cotton. Utah experienced drought conditions in 2003 for the fifth consecutive year which has lowered yields. Oregon's season was dry, causing non-irrigated acreage to dry up and irrigated acreage to suffer. Grapefruit: The U.S. grapefruit forecast is 2.14 million tons, down 2 percent from the October 1 forecast but 4 percent above last season's final utilization. Florida's grapefruit forecast is 41.0 million boxes (1.74 million tons), 2 percent below the October forecast. Colored grapefruit utilization is reduced 1 million boxes to 24.0 million (1.02 million tons), down 4 percent from the previous forecast but 7 percent above last season's final utilization. The reduction in the forecast is based upon smaller fruit size than estimated in October and an increase in fruit droppage. The white grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 17.0 million boxes (723,000 tons) but is 5 percent above last season. Fruit growth rate has slowed and fruit size is expected to be smaller than previously estimated. Fruit droppage however, is estimated at 8.5 percent, down from 9 percent in October. These factors offset any change in the white grapefruit forecast. Forecasts for Arizona, California, and Texas are carried forward from October. Tangelos: Florida's 2003-04 tangelo forecast is unchanged at 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons), 45 percent less than last season's utilized production and the smallest harvest since the 1965-66 season. Average fruit per tree is down 52 percent, and, as a result, average fruit sizes at harvest are near the largest of the 10 season series. Fruit droppage is below average and near the lowest in the series. Tangerines: The 2003-04 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 435,000 tons, up 1 percent from the October 1 forecast and 17 percent above last season's utilization of 371,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is increased 100,000 boxes, to 6.70 million boxes (318,000 tons), 22 percent above last season's utilization of 5.50 million boxes. Harvest of Fallglo tangerines is complete and Sunburst harvest for the holiday season is underway. Honey tangerine harvest has not yet begun. Average fruit size is the largest of the previous 10 seasons and droppage is expected to be slightly less than estimated in October. Arizona and California forecasts are carried forward from October 1. Temples: Florida's Temple forecast is 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2003-04 season, unchanged from October but 8 percent above last season's final utilization. If attained, the crop would be the third lowest since the freeze affected 1989-90 harvest. Fruit size and droppage are expected to be near average. Florida Citrus: November was dry with mostly warm days and nights during the first half of the month. Most stations reported less than two inches of rainfall during the month. However, cumulative amounts for the year are still above normal levels. Growers continued to irrigate on a regular basis to maintain surface soil moisture levels. The first cold front of the winter passed through the State in late November. Temperatures reached the low to mid-forty's on two occasions. Citrus crops in all areas made excellent progress with no major problems reported. Good to excellent fruit sizes were reported. Growers conducted typical fall cultural practices including weed and cover crop control and dead tree removal and replacement. All fresh fruit packinghouses were packing Navel and Hamlin oranges, white and colored grapefruit, and Sunburst tangerines. By the end of the month shipments of Fallglo tangerines were complete. All processors opened to receive packinghouse eliminations and early field run oranges. California Citrus: Pre-emergent herbicide applications continued in some citrus groves. Rainfall hindered harvest in some areas. Cooler temperatures continued to improve color and maturity. Lemons, Satsuma mandarins, Oroblanco grapefruit hybrids, and Chandler pummelos were picked and hauled to citrus packinghouses. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Pruning, cultivating, and spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Vine and tree removal and ground preparation for replacement planting occurred in many areas. Table grape harvesting was winding down. Red Globe, Crimson Seedless, and Autumn Royal were the primary varieties still being picked and packed. Plastic coverings were placed in some late variety vineyards to protect clusters from rain damage. Hayward kiwifruit and Hachiya and Fuyu variety persimmon harvest continued. Fall strawberry harvest was complete in most areas; however, a few Central Valley strawberry fields continued to produce fruit for sale at roadside stands. Harvest of Zutano and Bacon avocados was underway with large sizes reported. Olive harvesting continued but is nearing completion. Pecan harvesting was underway. Walnut harvesting continued in a few locations. Pecans: The December 1 forecast for 2003 pecan utilized production is 264 million pounds (in-shell basis), down 6 percent from the October 1 forecast but 53 percent above last year's crop. Frequent rains throughout the summer in Georgia produced extensive disease and insect pressures. Scab disease was widespread and shuck decline added to poor nut quality. Oklahoma had dry weather during the summer and significant wildlife damage later in the season. These two States are the contributors to the 6 percent reduction from the October 1 forecast. The large increase from last season is related to the high year of the alternate bearing cycle. Improved varieties are expected to make up 204 million pounds or 77 percent of the total, while the Native and seedling varieties make up the difference. The Georgia forecast, at 60.0 million pounds, is 14 percent below the October 1 forecast but 33 percent above last year's crop. As harvest progressed, grower expectations of quantity and quality were reduced from earlier in the season. Improved varieties account for all of the reduction from the October 1 forecast. The Texas production forecast is 70.0 million pounds, equal to the previous forecast but 75 percent above last year's production. Growers expect good to excellent quality nuts. Fall conditions were good for pecan maturing and harvest. New Mexico's forecast, at 55.0 million pounds, is unchanged from the October forecast but up 53 percent from last year. Harvest began about the beginning of December. Arizona forecasts a 23.5 million pound pecan crop, unchanged from October but 47 percent above last year. Harvest is expected to begin the second half of December. Oklahoma's forecast of 12.0 million pounds is 40 percent below the October forecast but 20 percent above the production of last year. Native varieties account for all of the reduction from October. The Louisiana forecast of 15.0 million pounds is unchanged from October but 2.5 times the 2002 crop. A large crop was anticipated due to adequate soil moisture and the high year of the alternate bearing cycle. Alabama pecan production, at 8.00 million pounds, remains unchanged from the previous forecast but up 60 percent from 2002. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 35.8 million tons, 1 percent below the November forecast but 1 percent above last year. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 996,800 acres for sugar and seed during the 2003 crop year. This is 200 acres less than the previous month and down 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 36.0 tons per acre, down 0.2 ton from the November forecast but up 1.3 tons from last year's estimate. In Florida, mild conditions allowed harvest to stay on schedule. The Louisiana harvest is in full swing, though some cane had lodged because of wet weather in late November slowing harvest progress. Coffee: Hawaii coffee production is estimated at 8.70 million pounds (parchment basis) for the 2003-04 season, up 16 percent from the previous crop year. Harvested area is estimated at 5,900 acres, unchanged from the 2002-03 season. Increased production from the islands of Kauai, Maui, Molokai, and Oahu is expected to more than offset lower production from the island of Hawaii. Improved cultural practices and adequate irrigation is expected to boost production on these islands. Hawaii Island experienced dry weather during the flowering and maturing stages and production is expected to be lower as a result of the adverse weather. Harvest on Hawaii Island began earlier than usual and a shorter harvest season is expected. Reliability of December 1 Crop Production Forecast Cotton Survey Procedures: Objective yield surveys were conducted between November 24 and December 1 to gather information on expected yields as of December 1. The objective yield survey for cotton was conducted in producing States that usually account for approximately 75 percent of the U.S. production. At crop maturity, the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the December 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Cotton Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield estimates for cotton were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. For cotton, reports from cotton ginners in each State were also considered. Each cotton State Statistical Office submits their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published December 1 forecast. Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida State Statistical Office submits its analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published December 1 forecast. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. The December 1 orange production forecasts for these three States are carried forward from October. Revision Policy: The December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. For cotton, a new estimate will be made in January followed by end-of-season revisions in May. Administrative records are reviewed and revisions are made, if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made, if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate. For oranges, the December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 cotton production forecast is 1.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current cotton production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 1.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.0 percent. Changes between the December 1 cotton forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 216,000 bales, ranging from 26,000 to 479,000 bales. The December 1 forecast for cotton has been below the final estimate 10 times and above 10 times. The difference does not imply that the December 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 orange production forecast is 11.0 percent. However, if you exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 11.0 percent or 4.4 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 19.0 percent or 7.8 percent, excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the December 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 620,000 tons (368,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 17,000 tons to 2.39 million tons (17,000 tons to 752,000 tons, excluding freezes). The December 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 6 times and above 9 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the December 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats , Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Jim Smith - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-2127 Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250 Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on January 12, 2004. 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