Cr Pr 2-2 (1-04) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 12, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Down 1 Percent from December The U.S. all orange January forecast for the 2003-04 crop is 13.5 million tons, down 1 percent from the December forecast but 17 percent above last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is 250 million boxes (11.3 million tons), down 1 percent from December but 23 percent above the 2002-03 crop. The early and mid-season varieties forecast is lowered 2 million boxes to 132 million boxes (5.94 million tons). Fruit droppage is higher and average size is smaller than the previous month's forecast. The Valencia forecast is unchanged at 118 million boxes (5.31 million tons) but is 30 percent above last season. Fruit size continues to be above average but not as large as last season. Fruit droppage remains near the minimum of the previous 10 seasons. The all orange forecast for California, at 58.0 million boxes (2.18 million tons), is 2 percent less than the October forecast and 6 percent lower than last season's final utilization. The Navel orange forecast is unchanged from October at 39.0 million boxes (1.46 million tons) but 5 percent below last season. California's Valencia orange forecast is reduced 1 million boxes to 19.0 million boxes (713,000 tons), down 5 percent from the October forecast and 10 percent lower than last season's final estimate. The crop is progressing normally. Valencia groves continue to be pulled out of production in response to market pressure and expanding development. The all orange forecast for Texas, at 1.53 million boxes (65,000 tons), is 1 percent less than the October 1 forecast and 3 percent below the 2002-03 season. The early-midseason orange forecast is unchanged at 1.30 million boxes (55,000 tons). The Valencia orange forecast is lowered to 230,000 boxes, 8 percent below the October 1 forecast but 5 percent higher than the previous season. Crop quality and size are reported as excellent. Arizona's all orange forecast is unchanged at 470,000 boxes (17,000 tons). Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2003-04 season is forecast at 1.53 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down from last month's projection of 1.55 and slightly below last season's final estimate of 1.54 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected to yield 1.47 gallons, down from 1.49 for the 2002-03 crop. Valencia's are projected to yield 1.60 gallons as compared to 1.61 gallons for last season. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationship this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on January 12, 2004. Acting Secretary of Agriculture James R. Moseley Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Hay Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 U.S. Weather Maps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :---------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Acres ------ --- Cwt --- ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : Winter : CA : 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 310 290 2,430 2,635 2,465 FL : 6.1 5.7 5.8 5.5 240 250 1,776 1,392 1,375 : Total : 14.6 14.2 14.3 14.0 282 274 4,206 4,027 3,840 : Spring 1/ : AZ : 7.6 7.6 275 2,106 2,090 CA : 19.0 19.0 440 7,695 8,360 FL : 30.0 28.6 280 7,883 8,008 Hastings: 21.5 20.3 280 5,985 5,684 Other FL: 8.5 8.3 280 1,898 2,324 NC : 19.0 17.0 175 3,570 2,975 TX : 13.0 12.5 240 2,040 3,000 : Total : 88.6 84.7 288 23,294 24,433 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Nov : 2,155 2,375 1,490 1,575 4,135 3,180 Dec : 2,150 2,210 1,580 1,345 3,765 3,010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2001-2002, 2002-2003 and Forecasted January 1, 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 270 200 220 10 8 8 CA : 32,000 41,000 39,000 1,200 1,538 1,463 FL : 128,000 112,000 132,000 5,760 5,040 5,940 TX : 1,530 1,350 1,300 65 57 55 US : 161,800 154,550 172,520 7,035 6,643 7,466 Valencia : AZ : 250 270 250 9 10 9 CA : 19,500 21,000 19,000 731 788 713 FL : 102,000 91,000 118,000 4,590 4,095 5,310 TX : 210 220 230 9 9 10 US : 121,960 112,490 137,480 5,339 4,902 6,042 All : AZ : 520 470 470 19 18 17 CA : 51,500 62,000 58,000 1,931 2,326 2,176 FL : 230,000 203,000 250,000 10,350 9,135 11,250 TX : 1,740 1,570 1,530 74 66 65 US : 283,760 267,040 310,000 12,374 11,545 13,508 Temples : FL : 1,550 1,300 1,400 70 59 63 Grapefruit : White Seedless 4/ : FL : 18,900 16,200 16,000 803 689 680 Colored Seedless : FL : 27,800 22,500 24,000 1,182 956 1,020 All : AZ : 160 130 100 5 4 3 CA : 5,900 5,600 5,200 198 188 174 FL : 46,700 38,700 40,000 1,985 1,645 1,700 TX : 5,900 5,650 5,300 236 226 212 US : 58,660 50,080 50,600 2,424 2,063 2,089 Tangerines : AZ 5/ : 620 430 600 23 16 23 CA 5/ : 2,200 2,500 2,500 83 94 94 FL 6/ : 6,600 5,500 6,700 314 261 318 US : 9,420 8,430 9,800 420 371 435 Lemons : AZ : 2,800 3,000 3,200 106 114 122 CA : 18,300 24,000 23,000 695 912 874 US : 21,100 27,000 26,200 801 1,026 996 Tangelos : FL : 2,150 2,350 1,300 97 106 59 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, K-Early Citrus & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Includes seedy. 5/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 6/ 2000-01 through 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey varieties only. Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States, December 1 and May 1, 2001-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dec 1 : May 1 State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2001 : 2002 1/ : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : AL : 2,100 1,700 1,764 650 246 AZ : 223 203 280 28 45 AR : 2,280 3,000 2,700 280 640 CA : 1,961 2,235 2,048 232 200 CO : 1,990 1,560 1,841 535 360 CT : 59 61 79 9 14 DE : 16 10 12 5 4 FL : 510 475 434 90 80 GA : 1,599 1,400 1,494 350 230 ID : 2,568 2,972 2,772 444 673 IL : 1,600 1,400 1,797 355 285 IN : 1,311 1,021 1,561 287 96 IA : 4,300 3,900 3,695 1,050 1,100 KS : 5,600 4,800 5,600 1,040 1,150 KY : 4,214 4,085 5,035 943 552 LA : 1,096 709 937 200 186 ME : 137 140 145 25 39 MD : 355 264 377 62 55 MA : 105 90 81 31 21 MI : 3,450 2,109 1,872 811 480 MN : 4,213 4,759 3,567 680 925 MS : 1,833 1,631 1,125 390 249 MO : 6,989 6,350 7,188 1,021 1,019 MT : 3,600 4,019 3,986 845 970 NE : 4,800 3,400 5,244 1,280 900 NV : 776 881 857 111 167 NH : 50 48 63 9 9 NJ : 90 55 96 15 11 NM : 600 620 525 65 110 NY : 2,250 2,236 2,430 600 520 NC : 1,215 785 1,625 158 50 ND : 5,020 4,300 4,690 1,050 940 OH : 3,591 1,832 2,504 551 236 OK : 3,300 4,500 3,994 500 1,000 OR : 1,901 2,550 2,395 183 330 PA : 2,100 2,200 2,440 550 390 RI : 8 9 9 2 1 SC : 448 400 601 110 65 SD : 8,235 5,800 7,210 1,900 1,100 TN : 4,140 3,566 3,830 809 542 TX : 7,477 10,803 9,910 1,625 4,017 UT : 1,470 1,200 1,495 210 175 VT : 288 281 332 87 80 VA : 2,384 1,929 2,515 411 226 WA : 1,513 1,620 1,620 170 285 WV : 939 934 957 205 95 WI : 4,300 3,600 3,110 1,350 1,100 WY : 1,506 1,250 1,910 180 200 : US : 110,510 103,692 110,752 22,494 22,168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,299.0 4,688.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 78,736.0 71,139.0 Corn for Silage : 6,528.0 Hay, All : 63,342.0 Alfalfa : 23,578.0 All Other : 39,764.0 Oats : 4,601.0 2,224.0 Proso Millet : 730.0 620.0 Rice : 3,022.0 2,997.0 Rye : 1,368.0 339.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,420.0 7,798.0 Sorghum for Silage : 343.0 Wheat, All : 61,700.0 52,839.0 Winter : 44,945.0 43,464.0 36,541.0 Durum : 2,915.0 2,869.0 Other Spring : 13,840.0 13,429.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,082.0 1,068.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 595.0 583.0 Mustard Seed : 110.0 107.0 Peanuts : 1,344.0 1,312.0 Rapeseed : 1.3 1.2 Safflower : 221.0 212.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,404.0 72,321.0 Sunflowers : 2,344.0 2,197.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,483.1 12,058.0 Upland : 13,304.0 11,880.0 Amer-Pima : 179.1 178.0 Sugarbeets : 1,365.4 1,347.9 Sugarcane : 996.8 Tobacco : 416.2 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 21.1 15.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,406.1 1,346.9 Dry Edible Peas : 337.5 328.5 Lentils : 246.0 237.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.9 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.2 Hops : 28.7 Peppermint Oil : 78.2 Potatoes, All : 1,275.0 1,250.3 Winter : 14.6 14.2 14.3 14.0 Spring : 88.6 84.7 Summer : 64.2 59.3 Fall : 1,107.6 1,092.0 Spearmint Oil : 15.8 Sweet Potatoes : 95.6 92.4 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 58.9 276,087 Corn for Grain : " : 142.2 10,113,887 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.2 105,864 Hay, All : " : 2.48 157,123 Alfalfa : " : 3.24 76,307 All Other : " : 2.03 80,816 Oats : Bu : 65.0 144,649 Proso Millet : " : 18.5 11,450 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,645 199,157 Rye : Bu : 27.3 9,254 Sorghum for Grain : " : 52.7 411,237 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 10.4 3,552 Wheat, All : Bu : 44.2 2,336,526 Winter : " : 46.7 1,707,069 Durum : " : 33.7 96,637 Other Spring : " : 39.7 532,820 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,416 1,512,250 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,694.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 10,426 Mustard Seed : Lb : 723 77,372 Peanuts : " : 3,159 4,144,150 Rapeseed : " : 949 1,139 Safflower : " : 1,286 272,555 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 33.4 2,417,565 Sunflower : Lb : 1,213 2,665,226 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 725 18,224.0 Upland 2/ : " : 719 17,795.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,157 429.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 22.7 30,605 Sugarcane : " : 34.5 34,368 Tobacco : Lb : 1,997 831,204 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,115 174 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,672 22,515 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,584 5,202 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,030 2,442 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 673 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,470 8,700 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 37,500 6,000 Hops : " : 1,903 54,565.1 Peppermint Oil : " : 89 6,924 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 367 459,045 Winter : " : 282 274 4,027 3,840 Spring : " : 288 24,433 Summer : " : 324 19,199 Fall : " : 377 411,386 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 113 1,778 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 172 15,921 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 5,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,424 2,063 2,089 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/: " : 1 Lemons : " : 801 1,026 996 Oranges : " : 12,374 11,545 13,508 Tangelos (FL) : " : 97 106 59 Tangerines : " : 420 371 435 Temples (FL) : " : 70 59 63 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 8,555.6 9,351.6 Apricots : Ton : 90.0 90.4 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 19,500.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,364.0 6,752.4 Olives (CA) : " : 103.0 115.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 45,900.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,575.4 2,618.1 Pears : Ton : 868.5 933.3 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 171.0 190.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 15.7 14.7 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 1,090,000 1,000,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 19.5 35.0 Pecans : Lb : 172,900 263,900 Pistachios (CA) : " : 303,000 180,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 282.0 315.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,393 1,239 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Production years are 2001-2002, 2002-2003, and 2003-2004. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,144,450 1,897,190 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,863,670 28,789,240 Corn for Silage : 2,641,820 Hay, All 3/ : 25,633,870 Alfalfa : 9,541,780 All Other : 16,092,090 Oats : 1,861,980 900,030 Proso Millet : 295,420 250,910 Rice : 1,222,970 1,212,860 Rye : 553,620 137,190 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,812,180 3,155,770 Sorghum for Silage : 138,810 Wheat, All 3/ :24,969,370 21,383,410 Winter :18,188,790 17,589,450 14,787,780 Durum : 1,179,670 1,161,060 Other Spring : 5,600,910 5,434,580 : Oilseeds : Canola : 437,870 432,210 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 240,790 235,930 Mustard Seed : 44,520 43,300 Peanuts : 543,900 530,950 Rapeseed : 530 490 Safflower : 89,440 85,790 Soybeans for Beans :29,705,860 29,267,590 Sunflowers : 948,590 889,100 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,456,480 4,879,750 Upland : 5,384,000 4,807,720 Amer-Pima : 72,480 72,030 Sugarbeets : 552,560 545,480 Sugarcane : 403,390 Tobacco : 168,440 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,540 6,310 Dry Edible Beans : 569,030 545,080 Dry Edible Peas : 136,580 132,940 Lentils : 99,550 95,910 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,390 Ginger Root (HI) : 60 Hops : 11,600 Peppermint Oil : 31,650 Potatoes, All 3/ : 515,980 505,980 Winter : 5,910 5,750 5,790 5,670 Spring : 35,860 34,280 Summer : 25,980 24,000 Fall : 448,230 441,920 Spearmint Oil : 6,390 Sweet Potatoes : 38,690 37,390 Taro (HI) 4/ : 170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.17 6,011,080 Corn for Grain : 8.92 256,904,560 Corn for Silage : 36.35 96,038,210 Hay, All 2/ : 5.56 142,539,590 Alfalfa : 7.25 69,224,550 All Other : 4.56 73,315,040 Oats : 2.33 2,099,570 Proso Millet : 1.03 259,680 Rice : 7.45 9,033,610 Rye : 1.71 235,060 Sorghum for Grain : 3.31 10,445,900 Sorghum for Silage : 23.21 3,222,320 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.97 63,589,820 Winter : 3.14 46,458,800 Durum : 2.27 2,630,030 Other Spring : 2.67 14,500,980 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.59 685,950 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,072,690 Flaxseed : 1.12 264,830 Mustard Seed : 0.81 35,100 Peanuts : 3.54 1,879,750 Rapeseed : 1.06 520 Safflower : 1.44 123,630 Soybeans for Beans : 2.25 65,795,340 Sunflowers : 1.36 1,208,930 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.81 3,967,810 Upland : 0.81 3,874,400 Amer-Pima : 1.30 93,400 Sugarbeets : 50.90 27,764,390 Sugarcane : 77.29 31,178,130 Tobacco : 2.24 377,030 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.25 7,890 Dry Edible Beans : 1.87 1,021,260 Dry Edible Peas : 1.77 235,960 Lentils : 1.15 110,770 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 30,530 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.65 3,950 Ginger Root (HI) : 42.03 2,720 Hops : 2.13 24,750 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,140 Potatoes, All 2/ : 41.15 20,821,930 Winter : 31.56 30.74 182,660 174,180 Spring : 32.33 1,108,260 Summer : 36.29 870,850 Fall : 42.23 18,660,160 Spearmint Oil : 0.13 810 Sweet Potatoes : 19.31 722,160 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,270 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,199,020 1,871,520 1,895,110 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/ : 910 Lemons : 726,650 930,770 903,560 Oranges : 11,225,500 10,473,450 12,254,250 Tangelos (FL) : 88,000 96,160 53,520 Tangerines : 381,020 336,570 394,630 Temples (FL) : 63,500 53,520 57,150 : Noncitrus : Apples : 3,880,760 4,241,810 Apricots : 81,680 82,010 Bananas (HI) : 8,850 Grapes : 6,680,510 6,125,670 Olives (CA) : 93,440 107,050 Papayas (HI) : 20,820 Peaches : 1,168,180 1,187,550 Pears : 787,840 846,680 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 155,130 172,370 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,200 13,340 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 494,420 453,590 Hazelnuts : 17,690 Pecans : 78,430 119,700 Pistachios (CA) : 137,440 81,650 Walnuts (CA) : 255,830 285,760 Maple Syrup : 6,960 6,190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Production years are 2001-2002, 2002-2003, and 2003-2004. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. December Weather Summary Storm systems repeatedly battered the Northeast during the first 3 weeks of December, resulting in frequent bouts of heavy rain, snow, and high winds. However, elsewhere east of the Rockies precipitation highlights were scarce. Winter wheat areas in the lower Midwest retained plenty of moisture from previously heavy rainfall, while Southern winter grains and cool-season pastures received enough rain to promote generally normal development. Farther west, the Plains' winter wheat situation remained far from ideal. Although the Plains escaped December with relatively minor temperature fluctuations, subsoil moisture supplies were very limited. Occasional snowfall provided a boost in topsoil moisture on the northern and central Plains, but exceptional dryness persisted on the southern High Plains, where high winds on December 15 triggered a major dust storm. Farther west, wet weather along the Pacific Coast gradually pushed inland, especially toward month's end. Wetness in the West Coast States, initially confined to northern and central California and the Pacific Northwest, reached southern California's burn areas (from the October wildfires) by December 25, triggering several major mudslides. Farther inland, late-month storminess was more welcomed across the Intermountain West, where reservoir storage remained significantly below normal due to a multi-year drought. Below-normal monthly temperatures were confined to the East, where an early- to mid-December cold snap helped to condition Florida's citrus trees. The cold spell culminated on December 21, featuring scattered temperatures near the freezing mark as far south as the northern Everglades. However, winter agricultural interests in central and southern Florida incurred little, if any, damage. Mild weather overspread the East toward the end of December, while most of the remainder of the Nation experienced a continuation of above-normal temperatures. An exception was the Southwest, where colder air at month's end brought the lowest temperatures in several years. On December 28 and 29, some winter crop producers in southern California and the Southwest had to take protective measures due to temperatures ranging from the upper 20's to near the freezing mark (32 degrees F). December Crop Summary In the Corn Belt, temperatures were generally above normal for the month. Precipitation was light to moderate across the southern part of the region. Some snow cover accumulated in the first half of the month in the northern and western parts of the region, but melted rapidly during the last week. Corn harvest was still not complete in some areas, due to muddy fields. The Great Plains remained dry most of the month and mild temperatures prevailed. Snow cover accumulated across the northern and central Great Plains during the first half of the month, but melted rapidly after mid-month, leaving winter wheat vulnerable to potential extreme cold. In the southern part of the region, dry, windy conditions depleted topsoil moisture, stressing small grains and pastures. Precipitation was near normal in most of the Rocky Mountain region, while temperatures were mostly above normal. Snow cover was spotty across the northern and central parts of the region early in the month, but became more uniform by mid-month. However, in the last half of the month, extremely mild temperatures melted much of this snow cover leaving the winter wheat crop exposed. In the Southeast and Mississippi Delta, temperatures were below average for most of the month, with light to moderate rainfall. Freezing temperatures reached as far south as the Gulf Coast. Though cotton harvest was complete in the Delta, most States in the Southeast still had some fields unharvested. Despite dry, cold conditions in Florida, citrus and vegetable crops were in good condition. Along the upper and middle Atlantic Coast, temperatures were below normal most of the month but turned mild during the final week. Precipitation was light to moderate with heavy snowfall in the Northeast. The precipitation, combined with pre-existing soil moisture, caused some flooding and fieldwork delays. The Pacific Northwest had above normal temperatures throughout the month. Precipitation was heavy in the coastal areas, but light and scattered across the crop-producing areas further inland. After warm, dry weather in California during the first week, temperatures remained normal through the end of the month. Precipitation was moderate, with heavy rainfall at times in the northern part of the State. Cotton harvest was completed after mid-month and plowdown activities were well underway. Citrus and vegetable crop harvest was active and pasture condition improved with adequate rainfall. Winter Potatoes: Production for 2004 is forecast at 3.84 million cwt, down 5 percent from a year ago and 9 percent below 2002. Harvested acreage in the two winter potato States (California and Florida) is estimated at 14,000 acres, down 2 percent from 2003, while the average yield is forecast at 274 cwt per acre, 8 cwt below last year. Harvest is underway in California's Kern County and proceeding normally. In Florida, mostly mild, dry fall weather provided good conditions for crop development. Spring Potatoes: Production for 2003 is revised to 24.4 million cwt, up 10 percent from the May forecast and 5 percent above 2002. Harvested area totaled 84,700 acres, down 2 percent from a year ago, while the average yield of 288 cwt per acre increased 17 cwt from 2002. Spring potato production increased 47 percent from 2002 in Texas and 9 percent in California on the strength of higher average yields. Florida's crop of 8.01 million cwt was up 2 percent from 2002. Production in North Carolina is off 17 percent and Arizona's potato production is 1 percent below a year ago. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.01 million pounds for December, 5 percent lower than last month and 20 percent below a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,210 acres, 7 percent below last month but 3 percent more than December 2002. Harvested area totaled 1,345 acres, 15 percent below both last month and last December. Weather conditions were variable during December with cooler temperatures and shorter days slowing crop progress. Soil moisture was adequate in non-irrigated orchards. Grapefruit: The U.S. grapefruit forecast is 2.09 million tons, down 2 percent from the previous forecast but 1 percent above last season's final utilization. Florida's grapefruit forecast, at 40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons), is 2 percent lower than the December forecast but 3 percent above last season's final utilization. The white grapefruit forecast is reduced by 1 million boxes to 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), down 6 percent from the December forecast and 1 percent below last season. The above average rate of growth observed earlier this season has slowed and is now below average. As a result, fruit size is expected to be smaller than previously estimated. Fruit droppage is expected to be average. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), remains unchanged but 7 percent above last season's final utilization. The growth pattern is also similar to last season when sizes were above normal early in the season and then dropped off. Droppage rates are expected to be near normal levels. California's grapefruit production forecast is 5.20 million boxes (174,000 tons), 5 percent below the October forecast and 7 percent below the 2002-03 season. Harvest is underway and quality is reported as good to very good. The forecast for Texas grapefruit is unchanged at 5.30 million boxes (212,000 tons). Harvest is underway with quality and size reported as excellent. Arizona's grapefruit forecast is 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons), 11 percent above the October 1 forecast but 23 percent below the 2002-03 season. Harvest is underway with good sizes and quality expected. Arizona's grapefruit producing areas continue to be affected by urbanization. Lemons: The 2003-04 U.S. lemon crop is 996,000 tons, up 1 percent from the October 1 forecast but down 3 percent from last season's final utilization. California production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes (874,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 4 percent below the 2002-03 season. Harvest is active in all areas with reported quality ranging from good to excellent. Arizona's 2003-04 lemon forecast, at 3.20 million boxes (122,000 tons), is up 7 percent from both the previous forecast and the previous season. Harvest is underway with fair quality and good sizes being reported. Tangelos: Florida's 2003-04 tangelo forecast is unchanged at 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons), 45 percent less than last season's utilized production and the smallest harvest since the 1965-66 season. Average fruit per tree is down 52 percent, as a result, average fruit sizes at harvest are near the largest of the 10 season series. Fruit droppage is below average and near the lowest in the series. Tangerines: The 2003-04 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is unchanged at 435,000 tons but is up 17 percent from last season's final utilization of 371,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop, at 6.70 million boxes (318,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but is 22 percent above last season's utilization of 5.50 million boxes. Harvest of Fallglo tangerines is complete. Sunburst harvest is underway and Honey tangerine harvest began at a faster pace than last season. Average fruit size is the largest of the last 10 seasons and droppage is expected to be slightly less than average. The California tangerine forecast, at 2.50 million boxes (94,000 tons), is unchanged from both the previous forecast and last season's final utilization. Harvest is underway and overall quality is reported as good to excellent. Arizona's forecast is 600,000 boxes (23,000 tons), unchanged from the previous estimate but 40 percent above last season. Temples: Florida's Temple forecast is 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2003-04 season, unchanged from October but 8 percent above last season's final utilization. If attained, the crop would be the third lowest since the freeze affected 1989-90 harvest. Fruit droppage is near normal but fruit per tree is 22 percent above last season. Fruit size is below average. Florida Citrus: December was mostly dry with moderate temperatures. Mid-December temperatures dropped to the high 20's and low 30's for very short durations. No reports of loss or damage were recorded. Most stations reported variable amounts of rainfall, from trace amounts to about eight inches in isolated areas. Some growers halted irrigation to induce light tree stress as a preventative measure for protection from cold weather later in the season. Citrus crops and trees in all areas made excellent progress with no major problems reported. Good to excellent fruit sizes were reported. Growers conducted typical winter cultural practices including weed and cover crop control, dead tree removal and replacement, and hedging in southern areas. By months end, all fresh fruit packinghouses were packing Navel, Hamlin, and Pineapple oranges, Temples, white and colored grapefruit, and Sunburst and Honey tangerines. Processors were open for packinghouse eliminations and field run early oranges. Harvest labor was reported as adequate for the large early-mid crop. Texas Citrus: Harvest is well underway for the 2003-04 season for most crops. Recent rains improved the outlook for this year's crop. Quality and size are reported as excellent. Some problems are reported with Rust Mite and Blackfly. California Citrus: Cool temperatures improved external color of early citrus varieties. Navel and Mandarin orange harvest continued. December rains slowed Navel picking but enhanced fruit size. Overall quality was reported as excellent. Lemon harvest was steady, with most volume coming out of the Central Valley and desert areas. Pummelo harvesting continued in the Central Valley. Oro Blanco grapefruit were harvested in the Central and Coachella valleys. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities, including pruning, soil amendments, weed control, and cover crop planting continued in tree fruit orchards and vineyards. Dormant spraying of stone fruit orchards continued in the southern areas. Removal of orchards and vineyards continued throughout the State with brush and stumps piled for burning or chipping. Late picking of Christmas Rose, Emperor, and Red Globe table grapes neared completion. Harvest of kiwifruit and pomegranates were complete by mid-month. Freezing temperatures during the middle of the month ended the persimmon harvest. Ground was prepared for new blueberry plantings in the Selma district. Bareroot and strawberry nursery stock digging began. Walnut orchards were gleaned. Pecan harvesting continued throughout the month. Freezing weather insured dormancy in pistachio orchards. Some Zutano avocados were picked as maturity improved. Hay Stocks on Farms: Stocks of all hay stored on farms totaled 111 million tons on December 1, 2003, up 7 percent from the previous year. Disappearance of hay from May 2003 - December 2003 totaled 68.5 million tons, compared to 69.8 million tons for the same period a year ago. Disappearance is down from last year due to improved pasture conditions, which decreased the need for supplemental hay feeding. Thirty of the 48 reporting States had higher hay stocks than last year. Most of the States reporting an increase in stocks compared to last year were located in the northern and central Rocky Mountains, northern and central Great Plains, eastern Corn Belt, Ohio Valley, and the Southeast. Stocks were significantly higher in Virginia and North Carolina, due to a sharp increase in production during 2003. Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 6.1 percent. However, if you exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.4 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 6.1 percent, or 4.4 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 10.5 percent, or 7.7 percent excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 444,000 tons (387,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 106,000 tons to 1.13 million tons (106,000 tons to 739,000 tons, excluding freezes). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 4 times and above 11 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Mark Harris, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats , Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250 Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Betty Johnston - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on February 10, 2004. 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