Cr Pr 2-2 (2-04) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 10, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Down from January The U.S. all orange February forecast for the 2003-04 crop is 13.3 million tons, down 1 percent from the January forecast but 15 percent above last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is reduced to 246 million boxes (11.1 million tons), 2 percent below the January 1 forecast but 21 percent above the previous season. The early and mid-season varieties forecast is lowered 4 million boxes to 128 million boxes (5.76 million tons), 3 percent lower than last month but 14 percent above last season. Results from the row count survey, combined with estimated utilization, indicated a reduction from the January forecast. The fruit size and droppage measurements, finalized in January, also support the reduction. Harvest of Florida's Navel oranges, a component of the early-midseason varieties, has decreased as crystallization has been observed in the fruit. Crystallization causes the fruit to dry out from the top making it unusable for fresh shipments. The Valencia forecast is unchanged from January at 118 million boxes (5.31 million tons) but is 30 percent above last season's final utilization. Fruit size continues to be above average but not as large as last season. Fruit droppage remains near the minimum of the previous 10-seasons. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2003-04 season is forecast at 1.53 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from last month but slightly below last season's final estimate of 1.54 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected to yield 1.47 gallons, down from 1.49 for the 2002-03 crop. Valencia's are projected to yield 1.60 gallons as compared to 1.61 gallons for last season. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationship this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on February 10, 2004. Acting Secretary of Agriculture J. B. Penn Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Sugarcane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2002-2003 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 442.0 421.0 38.3 40.0 16,929 16,840 HI 2/ : 21.3 20.5 99.0 99.2 2,109 2,034 LA 2/ : 465.0 450.0 28.3 27.0 13,160 12,150 TX 2/ : 43.6 42.4 39.1 37.0 1,705 1,569 : US : 971.9 933.9 34.9 34.9 33,903 32,593 : For Seed : FL : 19.0 20.0 38.1 40.0 724 800 HI 2/ : 1.4 1.5 35.5 37.6 50 56 LA 2/ : 30.0 40.0 28.3 27.0 849 1,080 TX 2/ : 0.9 1.4 30.0 35.0 27 49 : US : 51.3 62.9 32.2 31.6 1,650 1,985 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 461.0 441.0 38.3 40.0 17,653 17,640 HI 2/ : 22.7 22.0 95.1 95.0 2,159 2,090 LA 2/ : 495.0 490.0 28.3 27.0 14,009 13,230 TX 2/ : 44.5 43.8 38.9 36.9 1,732 1,618 : US : 1,023.2 996.8 34.7 34.7 35,553 34,578 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the 2003 Crop Production Summary. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Dec : 2,210 1,345 3,010 Jan : 2,080 2,210 1,505 1,345 3,935 3,635 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2001-2002, 2002-2003 and Forecasted February 1, 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 270 200 220 10 8 8 CA 4/ : 32,000 41,000 39,000 1,200 1,538 1,463 FL : 128,000 112,000 128,000 5,760 5,040 5,760 TX 4/ : 1,530 1,350 1,300 65 57 55 US : 161,800 154,550 168,520 7,035 6,643 7,286 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 250 270 250 9 10 9 CA 4/ : 19,500 21,000 19,000 731 788 713 FL : 102,000 91,000 118,000 4,590 4,095 5,310 TX 4/ : 210 220 230 9 9 10 US : 121,960 112,490 137,480 5,339 4,902 6,042 All : AZ 4/ : 520 470 470 19 18 17 CA 4/ : 51,500 62,000 58,000 1,931 2,326 2,176 FL : 230,000 203,000 246,000 10,350 9,135 11,070 TX 4/ : 1,740 1,570 1,530 74 66 65 US : 283,760 267,040 306,000 12,374 11,545 13,328 Temples : FL : 1,550 1,300 1,400 70 59 63 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 18,900 16,200 16,000 803 689 680 Colored Seedless : FL : 27,800 22,500 24,000 1,182 956 1,020 All : AZ 4/ : 160 130 100 5 4 3 CA 4/ : 5,900 5,600 5,200 198 188 174 FL : 46,700 38,700 40,000 1,985 1,645 1,700 TX 4/ : 5,900 5,650 5,300 236 226 212 US : 58,660 50,080 50,600 2,424 2,063 2,089 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 620 430 600 23 16 23 CA 4/ 6/ : 2,200 2,500 2,500 83 94 94 FL 7/ : 6,600 5,500 5,900 314 261 280 US : 9,420 8,430 9,000 420 371 397 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 2,800 3,000 3,200 106 114 122 CA : 18,300 24,000 23,000 695 912 874 US : 21,100 27,000 26,200 801 1,026 996 Tangelos : FL : 2,150 2,350 1,300 97 106 59 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5/ Includes seedy. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 7/ 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 through 2003-04 includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey varieties only. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,299.0 4,688.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 78,736.0 71,139.0 Corn for Silage : 6,528.0 Hay, All : 63,342.0 Alfalfa : 23,578.0 All Other : 39,764.0 Oats : 4,601.0 2,224.0 Proso Millet : 730.0 620.0 Rice : 3,022.0 2,997.0 Rye : 1,368.0 339.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,420.0 7,798.0 Sorghum for Silage : 343.0 Wheat, All : 61,700.0 52,839.0 Winter : 44,945.0 43,464.0 36,541.0 Durum : 2,915.0 2,869.0 Other Spring : 13,840.0 13,429.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,082.0 1,068.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 595.0 583.0 Mustard Seed : 110.0 107.0 Peanuts : 1,344.0 1,312.0 Rapeseed : 1.3 1.2 Safflower : 221.0 212.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,404.0 72,321.0 Sunflowers : 2,344.0 2,197.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,483.1 12,058.0 Upland : 13,304.0 11,880.0 Amer-Pima : 179.1 178.0 Sugarbeets : 1,365.4 1,347.9 Sugarcane : 996.8 Tobacco : 416.2 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 21.1 15.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,406.1 1,346.9 Dry Edible Peas : 337.5 328.5 Lentils : 246.0 237.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.9 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.2 Hops : 28.7 Peppermint Oil : 78.2 Potatoes, All : 1,275.0 1,250.3 Winter : 14.6 14.2 14.3 14.0 Spring : 88.6 84.7 Summer : 64.2 59.3 Fall : 1,107.6 1,092.0 Spearmint Oil : 15.8 Sweet Potatoes : 95.6 92.4 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 58.9 276,087 Corn for Grain : " : 142.2 10,113,887 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.2 105,864 Hay, All : " : 2.48 157,123 Alfalfa : " : 3.24 76,307 All Other : " : 2.03 80,816 Oats : Bu : 65.0 144,649 Proso Millet : " : 18.5 11,450 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,645 199,157 Rye : Bu : 27.3 9,254 Sorghum for Grain : " : 52.7 411,237 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 10.4 3,552 Wheat, All : Bu : 44.2 2,336,526 Winter : " : 46.7 1,707,069 Durum : " : 33.7 96,637 Other Spring : " : 39.7 532,820 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,416 1,512,250 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,694.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 10,426 Mustard Seed : Lb : 723 77,372 Peanuts : " : 3,159 4,144,150 Rapeseed : " : 949 1,139 Safflower : " : 1,286 272,555 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 33.4 2,417,565 Sunflower : Lb : 1,213 2,665,226 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 725 18,224.0 Upland 2/ : " : 719 17,795.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,157 429.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 22.7 30,605 Sugarcane : " : 34.7 34,578 Tobacco : Lb : 1,997 831,204 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,115 174 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,672 22,515 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,584 5,202 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,030 2,442 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 673 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,470 8,700 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 37,500 6,000 Hops : " : 1,903 54,565.1 Peppermint Oil : " : 89 6,924 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 367 459,045 Winter : " : 282 274 4,027 3,840 Spring : " : 288 24,433 Summer : " : 324 19,199 Fall : " : 377 411,386 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 113 1,778 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 172 15,921 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 5,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,424 2,063 2,089 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/: " : 1 Lemons : " : 801 1,026 996 Oranges : " : 12,374 11,545 13,328 Tangelos (FL) : " : 97 106 59 Tangerines : " : 420 371 397 Temples (FL) : " : 70 59 63 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 8,525.4 9,014.6 Apricots : Ton : 90.0 97.9 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 19,500.0 22,000.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,339.0 6,477.9 Olives (CA) : " : 103.0 118.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 45,900.0 43,000.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,574.9 2,523.1 Pears : Ton : 868.5 923.1 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 172.0 176.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 15.7 16.9 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 1,090,000 1,020,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 19.5 35.0 Pecans : Lb : 172,900 262,200 Pistachios (CA) : " : 303,000 116,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 282.0 325.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,393 1,239 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Production years are 2001-2002, 2002-2003, and 2003-2004. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,144,450 1,897,190 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,863,670 28,789,240 Corn for Silage : 2,641,820 Hay, All 3/ : 25,633,870 Alfalfa : 9,541,780 All Other : 16,092,090 Oats : 1,861,980 900,030 Proso Millet : 295,420 250,910 Rice : 1,222,970 1,212,860 Rye : 553,620 137,190 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,812,180 3,155,770 Sorghum for Silage : 138,810 Wheat, All 3/ :24,969,370 21,383,410 Winter :18,188,790 17,589,450 14,787,780 Durum : 1,179,670 1,161,060 Other Spring : 5,600,910 5,434,580 : Oilseeds : Canola : 437,870 432,210 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 240,790 235,930 Mustard Seed : 44,520 43,300 Peanuts : 543,900 530,950 Rapeseed : 530 490 Safflower : 89,440 85,790 Soybeans for Beans :29,705,860 29,267,590 Sunflowers : 948,590 889,100 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,456,480 4,879,750 Upland : 5,384,000 4,807,720 Amer-Pima : 72,480 72,030 Sugarbeets : 552,560 545,480 Sugarcane : 403,390 Tobacco : 168,440 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,540 6,310 Dry Edible Beans : 569,030 545,080 Dry Edible Peas : 136,580 132,940 Lentils : 99,550 95,910 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,390 Ginger Root (HI) : 60 Hops : 11,600 Peppermint Oil : 31,650 Potatoes, All 3/ : 515,980 505,980 Winter : 5,910 5,750 5,790 5,670 Spring : 35,860 34,280 Summer : 25,980 24,000 Fall : 448,230 441,920 Spearmint Oil : 6,390 Sweet Potatoes : 38,690 37,390 Taro (HI) 4/ : 170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.17 6,011,080 Corn for Grain : 8.92 256,904,560 Corn for Silage : 36.35 96,038,210 Hay, All 2/ : 5.56 142,539,590 Alfalfa : 7.25 69,224,550 All Other : 4.56 73,315,040 Oats : 2.33 2,099,570 Proso Millet : 1.03 259,680 Rice : 7.45 9,033,610 Rye : 1.71 235,060 Sorghum for Grain : 3.31 10,445,900 Sorghum for Silage : 23.21 3,222,320 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.97 63,589,820 Winter : 3.14 46,458,800 Durum : 2.27 2,630,030 Other Spring : 2.67 14,500,980 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.59 685,950 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,072,690 Flaxseed : 1.12 264,830 Mustard Seed : 0.81 35,100 Peanuts : 3.54 1,879,750 Rapeseed : 1.06 520 Safflower : 1.44 123,630 Soybeans for Beans : 2.25 65,795,340 Sunflowers : 1.36 1,208,930 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.81 3,967,810 Upland : 0.81 3,874,400 Amer-Pima : 1.30 93,400 Sugarbeets : 50.90 27,764,390 Sugarcane : 77.76 31,368,630 Tobacco : 2.24 377,030 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.25 7,890 Dry Edible Beans : 1.87 1,021,260 Dry Edible Peas : 1.77 235,960 Lentils : 1.15 110,770 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 30,530 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.65 3,950 Ginger Root (HI) : 42.03 2,720 Hops : 2.13 24,750 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,140 Potatoes, All 2/ : 41.15 20,821,930 Winter : 31.56 30.74 182,660 174,180 Spring : 32.33 1,108,260 Summer : 36.29 870,850 Fall : 42.23 18,660,160 Spearmint Oil : 0.13 810 Sweet Potatoes : 19.31 722,160 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,270 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,199,020 1,871,520 1,895,110 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/ : 910 Lemons : 726,650 930,770 903,560 Oranges : 11,225,500 10,473,450 12,090,960 Tangelos (FL) : 88,000 96,160 53,520 Tangerines : 381,020 336,570 360,150 Temples (FL) : 63,500 53,520 57,150 : Noncitrus : Apples : 3,867,060 4,088,950 Apricots : 81,680 88,800 Bananas (HI) : 8,850 9,980 Grapes : 6,657,830 5,876,650 Olives (CA) : 93,440 107,050 Papayas (HI) : 20,820 19,500 Peaches : 1,167,960 1,144,460 Pears : 787,840 837,380 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 156,040 159,660 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,200 15,330 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 494,420 462,660 Hazelnuts : 17,690 31,750 Pecans : 78,430 118,930 Pistachios (CA) : 137,440 52,620 Walnuts (CA) : 255,830 294,840 Maple Syrup : 6,960 6,190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. January Weather Summary The coldest weather in many years gripped the Northeast, accompanied by occasional snowfall in the northern Mid-Atlantic States and relentless snow squalls downwind of the Great Lakes. While bitterly cold conditions were persistent in the Northeast, cold air made only two significant surges across the remainder of the United States. Across most of the Plains, the most impressive cold outbreak struck from January 4-6, followed by the Midwest's coldest spell toward month's end. On the Plains, significant precipitation was confined to a few relatively small geographic areas. Much-needed precipitation, mostly rain, spread onto the southern Plains from January 15-17, followed by a major snow storm across the east-central Plains on January 25-26. Farther north, the last week of January featured heavy snow in northeastern Montana and parts of North Dakota. However, mostly dry conditions persisted on the High Plains from eastern Colorado and western Kansas northward into southern Montana, leaving a portion of the wheat crop regularly exposed to gusty winds and temperature fluctuations. In contrast, heavy rain soaked the Ohio Valley early in the month, causing some flooding in lowlands planted to winter wheat. Elsewhere in the eastern Corn Belt, soil moisture remained adequate to locally excessive. Farther west, however, unfavorably dry conditions persisted across the northwestern Corn Belt, although late-month snowfall provided beneficial moisture. Meanwhile, January precipitation was well below normal from the Delta to the southern Atlantic region, although the combination of cool weather and sporadic showers limited stress on pastures and winter grains. January rainfall was heavier in the western Gulf Coast region, while late-month downpours reduced irrigation demands in Florida's winter agricultural areas. In the West, mild, tranquil weather prevailed for most of the month, following some early-January storminess. However, cold air remained trapped in many snow-covered valleys across the Intermountain West, resulting in persistently cold, foggy weather and air-stagnation problems. Prospects for winter grains continued to improve in the Northwest, where widespread precipitation and a late-month warming trend melted snow and boosted soil moisture reserves. January temperatures averaged as much as 5 degrees F above normal on the central and southern High Plains and across the south-central United States. In contrast, readings approached 5 degrees F below normal in eastern Montana and western North Dakota, and were slightly below normal across the northern Plains, northern Corn Belt, and southern Atlantic States. Even more impressively cold weather was noted in parts of the Intermountain West, where temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees F below normal in some locations, and the Northeast, where readings ranging from 5 to 10 degrees F below normal were widespread. January Crop Summary Along the Atlantic Coast, temperatures were mostly below normal throughout the month, while precipitation was light to moderate. Late in the month, a series of Arctic cold fronts brought snow and ice to the Northeast and middle Atlantic regions. Freezing temperatures reached into northern Florida, but missed the citrus-growing regions of central and southern Florida. Across the Corn Belt, temperatures were below normal through most of the month, though record high temperatures visited the western areas of the region toward mid-month, melting much of the protective snow cover on winter wheat fields. However, this snow cover was quickly replenished with snowfall late in the month. Precipitation for the month was above normal in the Ohio Valley, but below normal across the western and northern Corn Belt. Light to moderate rain fell in the Southeast and Mississippi Delta and temperatures were mostly below normal. Freezing temperatures reached as far south as the Gulf Coast on several occasions. In the Great Plains, conditions remained mostly dry throughout the month. Other than a mid-month spell of moderate to heavy rainfall in Texas and Oklahoma, only light, widely scattered precipitation fell in the region. Mild temperatures around the middle of the month melted snow cover in the northern and central parts of the region, causing some concern for winter wheat as bitterly cold temperatures visited the region late in the month. Temperatures in the Rocky Mountains were below normal early in the month, but warmed up toward mid-month. Temperatures stayed above normal in the northern parts of the region through month's end, but dropped back to below normal in the central and southern areas. Across the central and southern portions of the region, precipitation was light and scattered. However, the northern areas of the region received widespread light to moderate precipitation in the second half of the month. In the Pacific Northwest, rain and snowfall were moderate to heavy along the coastal areas, but lighter in the crop-producing areas farther inland. Average temperatures were below normal early in the month, but rose to above normal in the second half of the month. Snow cover was adequate to protect winter wheat throughout the month. The Great Basin was mostly dry throughout the month, with below normal temperatures. In California, temperatures were near normal, with little rainfall except in the northwest part of the State. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for 2003 is estimated at 34.6 million tons, up 1 percent from last month but 3 percent below last year. Acres harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed are estimated at 996,800 for the 2003 crop year, 3 percent less than last year's harvested area. Yield is estimated at 34.7 tons per acre, 0.2 ton above January but the same as the 2002 crop. Estimates for all states, except Florida, are carried forward from January. Florida's yield, at 40.0 tons per acre, is 0.5 ton above the January estimate, 1.7 tons above 2002, and the highest since 1998. Production in Florida is estimated at 17.6 million tons for the 2003 crop year, 1 percent above the January estimate but slightly below 2002. The Florida harvest was active throughout January despite cold, wet weather in the second half of the month. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2003-04 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.09 million tons, unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 1 percent above the previous season. Florida's grapefruit forecast remains unchanged at 40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons) but 3 percent above last season's final utilization. The white grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons) but 1 percent below last season. The size and drop survey indications are final and unchanged from the January forecasts. However, results indicate that fruit size is smaller and droppage is above average when compared to the October indications. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), remains unchanged but 7 percent above last season's final utilization. The growth pattern is similar to last season when sizes were above normal early in the season and then leveled off. Droppage rates are above normal levels. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried forward from the January forecasts. Tangerines: The 2003-04 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 397,000 tons, down 9 percent from the January 1 forecast but up 7 percent from last season's final utilization of 371,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop, at 5.90 million boxes (280,000 tons), is down 12 percent from last month but 7 percent above last season's utilization of 5.50 million boxes. The reduction was made in the early maturing varieties. The late maturing Honey variety component of the forecast is unchanged. Harvest of the early tangerine varieties slowed as fruit began to dry out and became unusable for fresh shipments. Honey tangerine harvest is underway. Average fruit size is larger than the 10-season average and droppage is expected to be slightly less than average. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from January. Tangelos: Florida's 2003-04 tangelo forecast, at 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons), is unchanged from January but 45 percent less than last season's utilized production and the smallest harvest since the 1965-66 season. Over half of the crop has been harvested as of February 1 but harvest activity is declining rapidly. Temples: Florida's Temple forecast is 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2003-04 season, unchanged from January but 8 percent above last season's final utilization. If attained, the crop would be the third lowest since the freeze affected 1989-90 harvest. Fruit droppage and size are below average this season. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.64 million pounds for January, 21 percent higher than December but 8 percent below January 2003. Area in crop totaled 2,210 acres, unchanged from last month but 6 percent more than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,345 acres, unchanged from December but 11 percent lower than a year ago. Weather conditions were variable during the month of January. Soil moisture has been adequate in non-irrigated orchards with the majority of rainfall occurring in the first and last weeks of the month. Florida Citrus: Weather patterns over Florida's citrus producing areas were generally typical for January with cool nights and moderate day temperatures. However, several cold fronts passed through the State, each bringing varying amounts of rainfall and low morning temperatures ranging from the mid to low 30's in some locations and mid 40's in others. Moderate frost was reported on several mornings in northern locations. No tree damage or fruit loss was reported. High temperatures of the cold fronts were generally in the 50's. Following the cold fronts, low temperatures were in the 50's. High temperatures warmed to the 70's and some days to the low 80's. Rainfall patterns were typical with most occurring prior to the passage of a cold front. Rainfall was prevalent the second and last week of January. One reporting station measured 1.8 inches of rainfall in the second week. Rainfall amounts up to 1.5 inches occurred the last week of January as a slow moving low pressure system crossed over the State. Picking of early-midseason oranges peaked in January when weekly harvest reached over 9 million boxes in a 2-week period. Navel orange harvest decreased during the month and shipments were cut short by crystallization in larger sizes. Small amounts of Valencia oranges were harvested primarily for fresh shipments. Grapefruit harvest for fresh shipments increased throughout January while processing harvest experienced an increase near the end of the month. Harvest of Sunburst tangerines decreased as the harvest of Honey tangerines increased. Excellent fruit sizes and color were reported for the Honey tangerine variety. Tangelo harvest neared completion and Temple harvest for fresh and processing usage was heavy. California Citrus: Rains slowed harvest of Navel oranges and other citrus fruit. Ice marks were noted in many navel orange groves but the fruit did not suffer internal damage. Mandarin picking began winding down. Lemon harvest continued. Grapefruit, tangerines, Satsumas, Clementines, and pummelos were also harvested. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities, including pruning, grafting, cultivating, and dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Ground preparations were underway for young trees as weather permitted. Removal of old, unproductive, or unprofitable orchards and vineyards continued. Buds on stone fruit trees showed earlier than normal signs of swelling. Some tree fruit growers began placement of pheromone dispersal devices to disrupt the mating cycles of insect pests. Pruning, cane tying, and brush shredding continued in wine, raisin, and table grape vineyards. Foliar fertilizer and scale treatments were applied to cherry trees in the San Joaquin Valley. Strawberry plants showed new growth in many locations. New strawberry fields were planted in the Kerman district. Zutanos and Hass avocado varieties were harvested and packed as maturity advanced. Olive groves were pruned and suckered. Cold weather insured dormancy in pistachio orchards. Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 4.3 percent. However, if you exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.0 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.3 percent, or 4.0 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 7.4 percent, or 7.0 percent excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 342,000 tons (341,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 18,000 tons to 745,000 tons (18,000 tons to 745,000 tons, excluding freezes). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 4 times and above 11 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats , Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Kathy Broussard - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250 Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Jim Smith - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202 )720-2127 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 10, 2004. 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