Cr Pr 2-2 (3-04) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 10, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Down 1 Percent from February The U.S. all orange March forecast for the 2003-04 crop is 13.2 million tons, down 1 percent from the February 1 forecast but 14 percent above last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast is unchanged at 246 million boxes (11.1 million tons) but 21 percent above the previous season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 127 million boxes (5.72 million tons), down 1 percent from last month but 13 percent above the previous season. The harvest of the early and midseason varieties is nearly complete. Florida's Valencia forecast is 119 million boxes (5.36 million tons), up 1 percent from the February forecast and 31 percent above last season's final utilization. Fruit size continues to be above average but not as large as last season. Loss from droppage is at a record low. California's all orange forecast is 54.0 million boxes (2.03 million tons), down 7 percent from the January forecast and 13 percent below last season. Valencia oranges are forecast at 15.0 million boxes (563,000 tons) down 21 percent from the January forecast and 29 percent below last season's final utilization. Picking of Valencia oranges is underway in some of the southern growing regions. Overall, sizing appears to be up from the previous year but fruit are not as abundant on the trees. Rapid decreases in Valencia acreage continue in most parts of the State, as growers abandon their orchards or replace their Valencias with more profitable fruit or vegetable crops. California conducted an objective measurement survey and a grower survey for the March 1 forecast. Arizona and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from the previous forecasts. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ)) yield projection is unchanged at 1.53 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The early and midseason portion is projected at 1.45 gallons per box, down from 1.47 in February. The Valencia portion was raised to 1.62 gallons per box from 1.60. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on March 10, 2004. Acting Secretary of Agriculture James R. Moseley Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Sugarcane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2002-2003 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 442.0 422.0 38.3 39.7 16,929 16,753 HI 2/ : 21.3 20.5 99.0 99.2 2,109 2,034 LA 2/ : 465.0 450.0 28.3 27.0 13,160 12,150 TX 2/ : 43.6 42.4 39.1 37.0 1,705 1,569 : US : 971.9 934.9 34.9 34.8 33,903 32,506 : For Seed : FL : 19.0 20.0 38.1 40.6 724 812 HI 2/ : 1.4 1.5 35.5 37.6 50 56 LA 2/ : 30.0 40.0 28.3 27.0 849 1,080 TX 2/ : 0.9 1.4 30.0 35.0 27 49 : US : 51.3 62.9 32.2 31.7 1,650 1,997 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 461.0 442.0 38.3 39.7 17,653 17,565 HI 2/ : 22.7 22.0 95.1 95.0 2,159 2,090 LA 2/ : 495.0 490.0 28.3 27.0 14,009 13,230 TX 2/ : 44.5 43.8 38.9 36.9 1,732 1,618 : US : 1,023.2 997.8 34.7 34.6 35,553 34,503 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the 2003 Crop Production Summary. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Jan : 2,080 2,210 1,505 1,345 3,935 3,635 Feb : 2,255 2,200 1,510 1,345 3,735 2,815 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2001-2002, 2002-2003 and Forecasted March 1, 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 270 200 220 10 8 8 CA 4/ : 32,000 41,000 39,000 1,200 1,538 1,463 FL : 128,000 112,000 127,000 5,760 5,040 5,715 TX 4/ : 1,530 1,350 1,300 65 57 55 US : 161,800 154,550 167,520 7,035 6,643 7,241 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 250 270 250 9 10 9 CA : 19,500 21,000 15,000 731 788 563 FL : 102,000 91,000 119,000 4,590 4,095 5,355 TX 4/ : 210 220 230 9 9 10 US : 121,960 112,490 134,480 5,339 4,902 5,937 All : AZ 4/ : 520 470 470 19 18 17 CA : 51,500 62,000 54,000 1,931 2,326 2,026 FL : 230,000 203,000 246,000 10,350 9,135 11,070 TX 4/ : 1,740 1,570 1,530 74 66 65 US : 283,760 267,040 302,000 12,374 11,545 13,178 Temples : FL : 1,550 1,300 1,400 70 59 63 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 18,900 16,200 16,000 803 689 680 Colored Seedless : FL : 27,800 22,500 24,000 1,182 956 1,020 All : AZ 4/ : 160 130 100 5 4 3 CA 4/ : 5,900 5,600 5,200 198 188 174 FL : 46,700 38,700 40,000 1,985 1,645 1,700 TX 4/ : 5,900 5,650 5,300 236 226 212 US : 58,660 50,080 50,600 2,424 2,063 2,089 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 620 430 600 23 16 23 CA 4/ 6/ : 2,200 2,500 2,500 83 94 94 FL 7/ : 6,600 5,500 5,900 314 261 280 US : 9,420 8,430 9,000 420 371 397 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 2,800 3,000 3,200 106 114 122 CA : 18,300 24,000 23,000 695 912 874 US : 21,100 27,000 26,200 801 1,026 996 Tangelos : FL : 2,150 2,350 1,000 97 106 45 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5/ Includes seedy. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 7/ 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 through 2003-04 includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey varieties only. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,299.0 4,688.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 78,736.0 71,139.0 Corn for Silage : 6,528.0 Hay, All : 63,342.0 Alfalfa : 23,578.0 All Other : 39,764.0 Oats : 4,601.0 2,224.0 Proso Millet : 730.0 620.0 Rice : 3,022.0 2,997.0 Rye : 1,368.0 339.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,420.0 7,798.0 Sorghum for Silage : 343.0 Wheat, All : 61,700.0 52,839.0 Winter : 44,945.0 43,464.0 36,541.0 Durum : 2,915.0 2,869.0 Other Spring : 13,840.0 13,429.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,082.0 1,068.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 595.0 583.0 Mustard Seed : 110.0 107.0 Peanuts : 1,344.0 1,312.0 Rapeseed : 1.3 1.2 Safflower : 221.0 212.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,404.0 72,321.0 Sunflowers : 2,344.0 2,197.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,483.1 12,058.0 Upland : 13,304.0 11,880.0 Amer-Pima : 179.1 178.0 Sugarbeets : 1,365.4 1,347.9 Sugarcane : 997.8 Tobacco : 416.2 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 21.1 15.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,406.1 1,346.9 Dry Edible Peas : 337.5 328.5 Lentils : 246.0 237.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.9 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.2 Hops : 28.7 Peppermint Oil : 78.2 Potatoes, All : 1,275.0 1,250.3 Winter : 14.6 14.2 14.3 14.0 Spring : 88.6 84.7 Summer : 64.2 59.3 Fall : 1,107.6 1,092.0 Spearmint Oil : 15.8 Sweet Potatoes : 95.6 92.4 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 58.9 276,087 Corn for Grain : " : 142.2 10,113,887 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.2 105,864 Hay, All : " : 2.48 157,123 Alfalfa : " : 3.24 76,307 All Other : " : 2.03 80,816 Oats : Bu : 65.0 144,649 Proso Millet : " : 18.5 11,450 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,645 199,157 Rye : Bu : 27.3 9,254 Sorghum for Grain : " : 52.7 411,237 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 10.4 3,552 Wheat, All : Bu : 44.2 2,336,526 Winter : " : 46.7 1,707,069 Durum : " : 33.7 96,637 Other Spring : " : 39.7 532,820 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,416 1,512,250 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,694.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 10,426 Mustard Seed : Lb : 723 77,372 Peanuts : " : 3,159 4,144,150 Rapeseed : " : 949 1,139 Safflower : " : 1,286 272,555 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 33.4 2,417,565 Sunflower : Lb : 1,213 2,665,226 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 725 18,224.0 Upland 2/ : " : 719 17,795.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,157 429.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 22.7 30,605 Sugarcane : " : 34.6 34,503 Tobacco : Lb : 1,997 831,204 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,115 174 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,672 22,515 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,584 5,202 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,030 2,442 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 673 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,470 8,700 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 37,500 6,000 Hops : " : 1,903 54,565.1 Peppermint Oil : " : 89 6,924 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 367 459,045 Winter : " : 282 274 4,027 3,840 Spring : " : 288 24,433 Summer : " : 324 19,199 Fall : " : 377 411,386 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 113 1,778 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 172 15,921 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 5,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,424 2,063 2,089 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/: " : 1 Lemons : " : 801 1,026 996 Oranges : " : 12,374 11,545 13,178 Tangelos (FL) : " : 97 106 45 Tangerines : " : 420 371 397 Temples (FL) : " : 70 59 63 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 8,525.4 9,014.6 Apricots : Ton : 90.0 97.9 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 19,500.0 22,000.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,339.0 6,477.9 Olives (CA) : " : 103.0 118.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 45,900.0 43,000.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,574.9 2,523.1 Pears : Ton : 868.5 923.1 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 172.0 176.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 15.7 16.9 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 1,090,000 1,020,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 19.5 35.0 Pecans : Lb : 172,900 262,200 Pistachios (CA) : " : 303,000 116,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 282.0 325.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,393 1,239 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,144,450 1,897,190 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,863,670 28,789,240 Corn for Silage : 2,641,820 Hay, All 3/ : 25,633,870 Alfalfa : 9,541,780 All Other : 16,092,090 Oats : 1,861,980 900,030 Proso Millet : 295,420 250,910 Rice : 1,222,970 1,212,860 Rye : 553,620 137,190 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,812,180 3,155,770 Sorghum for Silage : 138,810 Wheat, All 3/ :24,969,370 21,383,410 Winter :18,188,790 17,589,450 14,787,780 Durum : 1,179,670 1,161,060 Other Spring : 5,600,910 5,434,580 : Oilseeds : Canola : 437,870 432,210 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 240,790 235,930 Mustard Seed : 44,520 43,300 Peanuts : 543,900 530,950 Rapeseed : 530 490 Safflower : 89,440 85,790 Soybeans for Beans :29,705,860 29,267,590 Sunflowers : 948,590 889,100 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,456,480 4,879,750 Upland : 5,384,000 4,807,720 Amer-Pima : 72,480 72,030 Sugarbeets : 552,560 545,480 Sugarcane : 403,800 Tobacco : 168,440 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,540 6,310 Dry Edible Beans : 569,030 545,080 Dry Edible Peas : 136,580 132,940 Lentils : 99,550 95,910 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,390 Ginger Root (HI) : 60 Hops : 11,600 Peppermint Oil : 31,650 Potatoes, All 3/ : 515,980 505,980 Winter : 5,910 5,750 5,790 5,670 Spring : 35,860 34,280 Summer : 25,980 24,000 Fall : 448,230 441,920 Spearmint Oil : 6,390 Sweet Potatoes : 38,690 37,390 Taro (HI) 4/ : 170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.17 6,011,080 Corn for Grain : 8.92 256,904,560 Corn for Silage : 36.35 96,038,210 Hay, All 2/ : 5.56 142,539,590 Alfalfa : 7.25 69,224,550 All Other : 4.56 73,315,040 Oats : 2.33 2,099,570 Proso Millet : 1.03 259,680 Rice : 7.45 9,033,610 Rye : 1.71 235,060 Sorghum for Grain : 3.31 10,445,900 Sorghum for Silage : 23.21 3,222,320 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.97 63,589,820 Winter : 3.14 46,458,800 Durum : 2.27 2,630,030 Other Spring : 2.67 14,500,980 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.59 685,950 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,072,690 Flaxseed : 1.12 264,830 Mustard Seed : 0.81 35,100 Peanuts : 3.54 1,879,750 Rapeseed : 1.06 520 Safflower : 1.44 123,630 Soybeans for Beans : 2.25 65,795,340 Sunflowers : 1.36 1,208,930 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.81 3,967,810 Upland : 0.81 3,874,400 Amer-Pima : 1.30 93,400 Sugarbeets : 50.90 27,764,390 Sugarcane : 77.52 31,300,600 Tobacco : 2.24 377,030 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.25 7,890 Dry Edible Beans : 1.87 1,021,260 Dry Edible Peas : 1.77 235,960 Lentils : 1.15 110,770 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 30,530 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.65 3,950 Ginger Root (HI) : 42.03 2,720 Hops : 2.13 24,750 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,140 Potatoes, All 2/ : 41.15 20,821,930 Winter : 31.56 30.74 182,660 174,180 Spring : 32.33 1,108,260 Summer : 36.29 870,850 Fall : 42.23 18,660,160 Spearmint Oil : 0.13 810 Sweet Potatoes : 19.31 722,160 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,270 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,199,020 1,871,520 1,895,110 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/ : 910 Lemons : 726,650 930,770 903,560 Oranges : 11,225,500 10,473,450 11,954,880 Tangelos (FL) : 88,000 96,160 40,820 Tangerines : 381,020 336,570 360,150 Temples (FL) : 63,500 53,520 57,150 : Noncitrus : Apples : 3,867,060 4,088,950 Apricots : 81,680 88,800 Bananas (HI) : 8,850 9,980 Grapes : 6,657,830 5,876,650 Olives (CA) : 93,440 107,050 Papayas (HI) : 20,820 19,500 Peaches : 1,167,960 1,144,460 Pears : 787,840 837,380 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 156,040 159,660 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,200 15,330 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 494,420 462,660 Hazelnuts : 17,690 31,750 Pecans : 78,430 118,930 Pistachios (CA) : 137,440 52,620 Walnuts (CA) : 255,830 294,840 Maple Syrup : 6,960 6,190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. February Weather Summary Important changes in the Nation's weather pattern provided drought relief across the West, central and southern Plains, and upper Midwest. In addition, heavy precipitation across the South ended a 2-month dry spell. Western storminess boosted high-elevation snow packs and improved spring and summer runoff prospects in the Great Basin, Intermountain West, central and southern Rockies, and Southwest. Meanwhile, water-supply prospects remained favorable in California and the Northwest. Farther east, most winter wheat areas on the Plains benefited from increasingly wet weather, despite underlying subsoil moisture shortages. Some of the heaviest precipitation fell on the southern Plains, where a late-month warming trend promoted some wheat and pasture development. However, pockets of dryness persisted farther north, most notably across parts of Montana and the central High Plains. Elsewhere, the northern and western Corn Belt received substantial rain and snow, reducing long-term precipitation deficits. In contrast, mostly dry weather across the southern and eastern Corn Belt helped to eliminate pockets of excessive wetness. Across the South, a steady procession of storm systems aided pastures and winter grains but slowed pre-planting activities. Fieldwork delays were most pronounced west of the Delta, where monthly precipitation totaled more than 200 percent of normal. Below-normal temperatures dominated across the southern two-thirds of the Nation, excluding southern Florida, where near-normal readings prevailed. Chilly conditions were most pronounced from the Great Basin to the southern Rockies, where temperatures averaged as much as 8 degrees F below normal. In contrast, near- to slightly above-normal temperatures were observed across the Nation's northern tier. An exception was eastern Montana, where record-high snow depths helped to hold readings as much as 6 degrees F below normal. February Crop Summary Heavy rains fell across the Mississippi Delta and Gulf Coast throughout February, with a short respite just after midmonth, and temperatures were below normal. Similar conditions, but with slightly less precipitation, prevailed in the Southeast with some snowfall in northern parts of the region. Producers were getting ready for spring field preparation, but most fields were too muddy to begin fieldwork. Across the northern and middle Atlantic Coast States and Ohio Valley, snow and ice early in the month gave way to mostly dry conditions, with some light, scattered precipitation from the middle to the end of the month. Average temperatures were near normal. Except for snow early in the month, the western and central Corn Belts were mostly dry throughout the month with only light, scattered precipitation. Temperatures were mostly below normal. In the northern Corn Belt, snowfall was heavier and more frequent, despite above-normal temperatures for the month. Across most of the Corn Belt, snow cover provided adequate protection for winter wheat during the coldest part of the month and provided much-needed moisture as it melted later in the month. In the northern and central Great Plains, conditions remained dry throughout the month, causing moisture stress for winter wheat. Temperatures were well below normal early in the month but yielded to above-normal temperatures after midmonth. Precipitation totals were higher in the southern Great Plains, with light rainfall just before midmonth and moderate precipitation, including some snow, during the last week of the month. Temperatures were below normal in the first half of the month but near normal through month's end. Planting of corn, cotton, and sorghum had begun in southern parts of Texas, but wet conditions limited progress. Precipitation was light but widespread across the northern and central Rocky Mountains, with some scattered pockets of moderate rainfall. Below-normal temperatures dominated early in the month but gave way to slightly above-normal temperatures toward month's end. In the southern Rocky Mountains, dry conditions prevailed throughout most of the month, although light to moderate rain fell in the region during the last week. Average temperatures for the month were below normal. Rainfall was heavy along the Pacific Coast, with above-normal temperatures in the extreme northern part of the region but below-normal temperatures in the south. In California, wet conditions in many areas slowed citrus harvest and vegetable planting and harvesting toward month's end. Land preparation for summer crops was active where conditions permitted. In the interior Pacific Northwest, light precipitation fell throughout most of the month and temperatures were near normal. Conditions in the Great Basin and Southwest were mostly dry, although some light precipitation fell during the last week. Temperatures averaged below normal for the month, as weekly average temperatures were over 12 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for a large part of the region just before midmonth. Emergence of small grains was complete in Arizona and heading had begun. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for 2003 is estimated at 34.5 million tons, down slightly from last month and 3 percent below last year. Acres harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed are estimated at 997,800 for the 2003 crop year, 2 percent less than last year's harvested area. Yield is estimated at 34.6 tons per acre, 0.1 ton below February's forecast and the 2002 crop. Estimates for all states, except Florida, are carried forward from February. In Florida, area harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed is estimated at 442,000 acres, fractionally above February but 4 percent below 2002. Florida's yield, at 39.7 tons per acre, is 0.3 ton below the February forecast but 1.4 tons above 2002. Production in Florida is forecast at 17.6 million tons for the 2003 crop year, slightly below February and 2002. The crop suffered no damage from the mid-to-late February cold snap. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.82 million pounds for February, 23 percent lower than January and 25 percent below February 2003. Area in crop totaled 2,200 acres, less than 1 percent below last month and 2 percent less than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,345 acres, unchanged from January but 11 percent lower than a year ago. Weather conditions were variable during the month of February. Soil moisture has been adequate in non-irrigated orchards. The majority of rainfall occurred during the last weeks of the month. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2003-04 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.09 million tons, unchanged from the February 1 forecast but 1 percent above the previous season. Florida's grapefruit forecast remains unchanged at 40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons) but 3 percent above last season's final utilization. The white grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons) but 1 percent below last season. The size and drop survey indications are final and unchanged from the February forecasts. However, results indicate that fruit size is smaller and droppage is above average when compared to the October indications. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), remains unchanged but 7 percent above last season's final utilization. The growth pattern is similar to last season when sizes were above normal early in the season and then leveled off. Droppage rates are above normal levels. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried forward from the previous forecasts. Tangelos: Florida's 2003-04 tangelo forecast, at 1.00 million boxes (45,000 tons), is down 23 percent from February and 57 percent less than last season's utilized production. This is the smallest crop since the 1964-65 season. Tangelo harvest is complete as of March 1. Tangerines: The 2003-04 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 397,000 tons, unchanged from the February 1 forecast but up 7 percent from last season's final utilization of 371,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop, at 5.90 million boxes (280,000 tons), remains the same as last month but 7 percent above last season's utilization of 5.50 million boxes. Harvest of the early tangerine varieties is complete. Honey tangerine harvest is underway. Average fruit size is larger than the 10-season average and droppage is expected to be slightly less than average. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from the previous forecast. Temples: Florida's Temple forecast is 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2003-04 season, unchanged from February but 8 percent above last season's final utilization. If attained, the crop would be the third lowest since the freeze affected 1989-90 season. Fruit droppage and size are below average this season. Florida Citrus: Florida's weather in the citrus areas during February was beneficial with cool nighttime temperatures and moderate to warm days. Several cold fronts passed through the State bringing overnight temperatures to the mid to upper 30's. Daytime highs reached to the low 80's on several days with some cloudy days near the end of the month. The cold fronts brought varying amounts of rainfall with the most precipitation the last week of the month. Coastal areas received over 2.5 inches while the interior had generally over 2 inches. Citrus trees in all areas are in excellent condition following the good weather of the past several months. New growth was reported mid-month in some southern locations and statewide by the end of the month. Some early orange varieties in the southern groves are near full open bloom, while later blooming varieties like tangerines are showing buds just forming. Upper interior and central area groves are just entering the bloom cycle with swelling buds prevalent on early blooming varieties. Early-midseason orange harvest is declining as the season nears completion. Navel orange harvest was nearly complete by the first of the month. Valencia oranges are beginning to be harvested, primarily for fresh shipments. Grapefruit harvest for fresh use increased during the month with harvest for processing increasing near the end of the month. Early variety tangerine harvest is complete and Honey tangerine harvest is well under way. Tangelo harvest is complete and Temple harvest for processing is active. California Citrus: The Navel orange harvest continued throughout February but was slowed by rain during the later part of the month. Puff and crease continued to affect blood variety oranges, while the Cara Cara variety oranges were picked and packed. Lemon harvest continued in the Central Valley and South Coastal regions but was wrapping up in the desert region by the end of the month. Mandarins and tangelos were picked as conditions allowed. The Oroblanco and Pummelo variety grapefruit continue to be harvested in the Central Valley, while the Rio Red variety was being harvested in the Coachella Valley. Snail control in citrus groves was ongoing. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities such as pruning, grafting, cultivating, irrigating, and dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Sunny days during the middle of February encouraged more widespread blooming in early variety peach, nectarine, and plum orchards. Rain late in the month posed a potential threat to a good stone fruit set, as bloom and pollination were already in progress. Tree loss from high winds was reported in Sutter County. Pruning, cane tying, and some brush shredding were ongoing in raisin, wine, and table grape vineyards. Tree and vine removal and the planting of new trees and vines were delayed due to muddy conditions. Some grafting of table grapes began in Tulare County. Stumps and brush from orchard and vineyard removal were piled for burning. Almond trees were blooming across the State, but were at varying stages depending on location and weather conditions. High winds and rain blew over some almond trees in the San Joaquin Valley. Dormant sprays and bloom sprays were applied as weather and soil conditions allowed. Pruning in walnut and pistachio orchards continued as weather permitted. Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 3.3 percent. However, if you exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.0 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.3 percent, or 3.0 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.8 percent, or 5.4 percent excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 236,000 tons (221,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 8,000 tons to 713,000 tons (8,000 tons to 713,000 tons, excluding freezes). The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 4 times and above 11 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Dave DeWalt - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Herman Ellison - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Hay, Oats , Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250 Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Jim Smith - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202 )720-2127 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next "Crop Production" report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on April 8, 2004. 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