Cr Pr 2-2 (4-04) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 8, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Virtually Unchanged from March The U.S. all orange April 1 forecast for the 2003-04 crop is 13.1 million tons, down less than 1 percent from the March 1 forecast but 14 percent above last season's final revised utilization. Florida's all orange forecast, at 245 million boxes (11.0 million tons), is down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but 21 percent above the previous season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 126 million boxes (5.67 million tons), down 1 percent from last month but 13 percent above the previous season. Harvest of the early and midseason varieties is complete. Florida's Valencia forecast is 119 million boxes (5.36 million tons), unchanged from the March forecast but 31 percent above last season's final utilization. Citrus trees in Florida groves are in excellent condition with irrigation being used extensively as trees reached peak bloom in mid to late March. California's all orange forecast, at 54.0 million boxes (2.03 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 12 percent below the previous season's revised utilization. Harvesting of navel oranges was active througout March. Navel and Valencia oranges are unchanged at 39.0 million boxes (1.46 million tons), and 15.0 million boxes (563,000 tons), respectively. Harvesting of the Valencia crop is well underway with no major problems reported. However, bearing acreage reductions continue in both the Central Valley and southern areas. Overall quality of the harvested crop is good in both districts. Much of the Central Valley Valencia crop is being packed for export at this point. The Texas all orange forecast is 1.68 million boxes (72,000 tons), up 10 percent from the January 1 forecast and 7 percent more than last season's utilized production. Harvest is well underway with excellent fruit quality and size reported. Arizona's all orange utilization is forecast at 540,000 boxes (21,000 tons), an increase of 15 percent from both the previous forecast and the 2002-03 season. Small size fruit with good quality are being reported. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield projection is increased from 1.53 to 1.54 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The early and midseason portion is final at 1.45 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is raised to 1.64 gallons per box from 1.62 with processors reporting excellent Valencia internal qualities. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationships this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on April 8, 2004. Secretary of Agriculture Ann M. Veneman Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Citrus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Reliability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2001-2002, 2002-2003 and Forecasted April 1, 2004 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2001-02 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 3/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 4/ : AZ : 270 200 260 10 8 10 CA : 32,000 41,000 39,000 1,200 1,538 1,463 FL : 128,000 112,000 126,000 5,760 5,040 5,670 TX : 1,530 1,350 1,450 65 57 62 US : 161,800 154,550 166,710 7,035 6,643 7,205 Valencia : AZ : 250 270 280 9 10 11 CA : 19,500 20,500 15,000 731 769 563 FL : 102,000 91,000 119,000 4,590 4,095 5,355 TX : 210 220 230 9 9 10 US : 121,960 111,990 134,510 5,339 4,883 5,939 All : AZ : 520 470 540 19 18 21 CA : 51,500 61,500 54,000 1,931 2,307 2,026 FL : 230,000 203,000 245,000 10,350 9,135 11,025 TX : 1,740 1,570 1,680 74 66 72 US : 283,760 266,540 301,220 12,374 11,526 13,144 Temples : FL : 1,550 1,300 1,400 70 59 63 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 18,900 16,200 16,000 803 689 680 Colored Seedless : FL : 27,800 22,500 24,000 1,182 956 1,020 All : AZ : 160 130 100 5 4 3 CA : 5,900 5,600 5,400 198 188 181 FL : 46,700 38,700 40,000 1,985 1,645 1,700 TX : 5,900 5,650 5,400 236 226 216 US : 58,660 50,080 50,900 2,424 2,063 2,100 Tangerines : AZ 6/ : 620 430 600 23 16 23 CA 6/ : 2,200 2,500 2,400 83 94 90 FL 7/ : 6,600 5,500 6,300 314 261 299 US : 9,420 8,430 9,300 420 371 412 Lemons : AZ : 2,800 3,000 3,000 106 114 114 CA : 18,300 24,000 23,000 695 912 874 US : 21,100 27,000 26,000 801 1,026 988 Tangelos : FL : 2,150 2,350 1,000 97 106 45 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ 2002-03 Revised. 3/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 5/ Includes seedy. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. 7/ 2001-02 includes Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, Dancy, and Honey varieties; 2002-03 through 2003-04 includes Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey varieties only. Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :---------------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------ State : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 :2003 :2004 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Acres -------- -- Cwt -- ----- 1,000 Cwt ---- : Winter : CA : 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 310 250 2,430 2,635 2,125 FL : 6.1 5.7 5.8 5.5 240 250 1,776 1,392 1,375 : Total : 14.6 14.2 14.3 14.0 282 250 4,206 4,027 3,500 : Spring : AZ : 7.6 7.0 7.6 7.0 275 280 2,106 2,090 1,960 CA : 19.0 17.5 19.0 17.5 440 390 7,695 8,360 6,825 FL : 30.0 22.8 28.6 22.5 280 249 7,381 8,008 5,605 Hastings : 21.5 16.2 20.3 16.0 280 265 5,775 5,684 4,240 Other FL : 8.5 6.6 8.3 6.5 280 210 1,606 2,324 1,365 NC : 19.0 16.0 17.0 15.0 175 190 3,230 2,975 2,850 TX : 13.0 11.0 12.5 10.5 240 230 2,040 3,000 2,415 : Total : 88.6 74.3 84.7 72.5 288 271 22,452 24,433 19,655 : Summer 1/ : AL : 3.0 1.8 185 513 333 CA : 7.5 7.2 385 2,628 2,772 CO : 6.8 6.7 380 2,268 2,546 DE : 3.7 3.6 240 1,000 864 IL : 6.5 6.1 360 1,984 2,196 KS : 2.8 2.7 380 986 1,026 MD : 4.7 4.6 240 1,100 1,104 MO : 8.0 7.1 265 1,296 1,882 NJ : 2.8 2.7 250 715 675 NM : 1.9 1.9 280 736 532 TX : 9.0 8.4 420 3,320 3,528 VA : 7.0 6.2 250 1,386 1,550 : Total : 63.7 59.0 322 17,932 19,008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Feb : 2,255 2,200 1,510 1,345 3,735 2,815 Mar : 2,260 2,110 1,515 1,165 4,215 2,750 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,299.0 4,683.0 4,688.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 78,736.0 79,004.0 71,139.0 Corn for Silage : 6,528.0 Hay, All : 63,342.0 63,731.0 Alfalfa : 23,578.0 All Other : 39,764.0 Oats : 4,601.0 4,312.0 2,224.0 2,067.0 Proso Millet : 730.0 620.0 Rice : 3,022.0 3,260.0 2,997.0 Rye : 1,368.0 339.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,420.0 8,600.0 7,798.0 Sorghum for Silage : 343.0 Wheat, All : 61,700.0 59,462.0 52,839.0 Winter : 44,945.0 43,372.0 36,541.0 Durum : 2,915.0 2,757.0 2,869.0 Other Spring : 13,840.0 13,333.0 13,429.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,082.0 965.0 1,068.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 595.0 583.0 Mustard Seed : 110.0 107.0 Peanuts : 1,344.0 1,366.0 1,312.0 Rapeseed : 1.3 1.2 Safflower : 221.0 212.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,404.0 75,411.0 72,321.0 Sunflowers : 2,344.0 2,086.0 2,197.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,483.1 14,401.6 12,058.0 Upland : 13,304.0 14,175.0 11,880.0 Amer-Pima : 179.1 226.6 178.0 Sugarbeets : 1,365.4 1,358.6 1,347.9 Sugarcane : 997.8 Tobacco : 416.2 414.6 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 21.1 15.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,406.1 1,333.0 1,346.9 Dry Edible Peas : 337.5 328.5 Lentils : 246.0 237.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.9 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.2 Hops : 28.7 Peppermint Oil : 78.2 Potatoes, All : 1,274.5 1,250.0 Winter : 14.6 14.2 14.3 14.0 Spring : 88.6 74.3 84.7 72.5 Summer : 63.7 59.0 Fall : 1,107.6 1,092.0 Spearmint Oil : 15.8 Sweet Potatoes : 95.6 98.3 92.4 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 58.9 276,087 Corn for Grain : " : 142.2 10,113,887 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.2 105,864 Hay, All : " : 2.48 157,123 Alfalfa : " : 3.24 76,307 All Other : " : 2.03 80,816 Oats : Bu : 65.0 144,649 Proso Millet : " : 18.5 11,450 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,645 199,157 Rye : Bu : 27.3 9,254 Sorghum for Grain : " : 52.7 411,237 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 10.4 3,552 Wheat, All : Bu : 44.2 2,336,526 Winter : " : 46.7 1,707,069 Durum : " : 33.7 96,637 Other Spring : " : 39.7 532,820 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,416 1,512,250 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,694.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 10,426 Mustard Seed : Lb : 723 77,372 Peanuts : " : 3,159 4,144,150 Rapeseed : " : 949 1,139 Safflower : " : 1,286 272,555 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 33.4 2,417,565 Sunflower : Lb : 1,213 2,665,226 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 725 18,224.0 Upland 2/ : " : 719 17,795.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,157 429.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 22.7 30,605 Sugarcane : " : 34.6 34,503 Tobacco : Lb : 1,997 831,204 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,115 174 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,672 22,515 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,584 5,202 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,030 2,442 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 673 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,470 8,700 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 37,500 6,000 Hops : " : 1,903 54,565.1 Peppermint Oil : " : 89 6,924 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 367 458,854 Winter : " : 282 250 4,027 3,500 Spring : " : 288 271 24,433 19,655 Summer : " : 322 19,008 Fall : " : 377 411,386 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 113 1,778 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 172 15,921 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 5,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,424 2,063 2,100 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/: " : 1 Lemons : " : 801 1,026 988 Oranges : " : 12,374 11,526 13,144 Tangelos (FL) : " : 97 106 45 Tangerines : " : 420 371 412 Temples (FL) : " : 70 59 63 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 8,525.4 9,014.6 Apricots : Ton : 90.0 97.9 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 19,500.0 22,000.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,339.0 6,477.9 Olives (CA) : " : 103.0 118.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 45,900.0 43,000.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,574.9 2,523.1 Pears : Ton : 868.5 923.1 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 172.0 176.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 15.7 16.9 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 1,090,000 1,020,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 19.5 35.0 Pecans : Lb : 172,900 262,200 Pistachios (CA) : " : 303,000 116,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 282.0 325.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,475 1,239 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,144,450 1,895,160 1,897,190 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,863,670 31,972,130 28,789,240 Corn for Silage : 2,641,820 Hay, All 3/ : 25,633,870 25,791,300 Alfalfa : 9,541,780 All Other : 16,092,090 Oats : 1,861,980 1,745,020 900,030 836,490 Proso Millet : 295,420 250,910 Rice : 1,222,970 1,319,290 1,212,860 Rye : 553,620 137,190 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,812,180 3,480,330 3,155,770 Sorghum for Silage : 138,810 Wheat, All 3/ :24,969,370 24,063,680 21,383,410 Winter :18,188,790 17,552,210 14,787,780 Durum : 1,179,670 1,115,730 1,161,060 Other Spring : 5,600,910 5,395,730 5,434,580 : Oilseeds : Canola : 437,870 390,530 432,210 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 240,790 235,930 Mustard Seed : 44,520 43,300 Peanuts : 543,900 552,810 530,950 Rapeseed : 530 490 Safflower : 89,440 85,790 Soybeans for Beans :29,705,860 30,518,080 29,267,590 Sunflowers : 948,590 844,180 889,100 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,456,480 5,828,180 4,879,750 Upland : 5,384,000 5,736,480 4,807,720 Amer-Pima : 72,480 91,700 72,030 Sugarbeets : 552,560 549,810 545,480 Sugarcane : 403,800 Tobacco : 168,440 167,760 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,540 6,310 Dry Edible Beans : 569,030 539,450 545,080 Dry Edible Peas : 136,580 132,940 Lentils : 99,550 95,910 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,390 Ginger Root (HI) : 60 Hops : 11,600 Peppermint Oil : 31,650 Potatoes, All 3/ : 515,780 505,860 Winter : 5,910 5,750 5,790 5,670 Spring : 35,860 30,070 34,280 29,340 Summer : 25,780 23,880 Fall : 448,230 441,920 Spearmint Oil : 6,390 Sweet Potatoes : 38,690 39,780 37,390 Taro (HI) 4/ : 170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.17 6,011,080 Corn for Grain : 8.92 256,904,560 Corn for Silage : 36.35 96,038,210 Hay, All 2/ : 5.56 142,539,590 Alfalfa : 7.25 69,224,550 All Other : 4.56 73,315,040 Oats : 2.33 2,099,570 Proso Millet : 1.03 259,680 Rice : 7.45 9,033,610 Rye : 1.71 235,060 Sorghum for Grain : 3.31 10,445,900 Sorghum for Silage : 23.21 3,222,320 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.97 63,589,820 Winter : 3.14 46,458,800 Durum : 2.27 2,630,030 Other Spring : 2.67 14,500,980 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.59 685,950 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,072,690 Flaxseed : 1.12 264,830 Mustard Seed : 0.81 35,100 Peanuts : 3.54 1,879,750 Rapeseed : 1.06 520 Safflower : 1.44 123,630 Soybeans for Beans : 2.25 65,795,340 Sunflowers : 1.36 1,208,930 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.81 3,967,810 Upland : 0.81 3,874,400 Amer-Pima : 1.30 93,400 Sugarbeets : 50.90 27,764,390 Sugarcane : 77.52 31,300,600 Tobacco : 2.24 377,030 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.25 7,890 Dry Edible Beans : 1.87 1,021,260 Dry Edible Peas : 1.77 235,960 Lentils : 1.15 110,770 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 30,530 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.65 3,950 Ginger Root (HI) : 42.03 2,720 Hops : 2.13 24,750 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,140 Potatoes, All 2/ : 41.14 20,813,270 Winter : 31.56 28.02 182,660 158,760 Spring : 32.33 30.39 1,108,260 891,540 Summer : 36.11 862,190 Fall : 42.23 18,660,160 Spearmint Oil : 0.13 810 Sweet Potatoes : 19.31 722,160 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,270 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,199,020 1,871,520 1,905,090 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/ : 910 Lemons : 726,650 930,770 896,300 Oranges : 11,225,500 10,456,210 11,924,040 Tangelos (FL) : 88,000 96,160 40,820 Tangerines : 381,020 336,570 373,760 Temples (FL) : 63,500 53,520 57,150 : Noncitrus : Apples : 3,867,060 4,088,950 Apricots : 81,680 88,800 Bananas (HI) : 8,850 9,980 Grapes : 6,657,830 5,876,650 Olives (CA) : 93,440 107,050 Papayas (HI) : 20,820 19,500 Peaches : 1,167,960 1,144,460 Pears : 787,840 837,380 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 156,040 159,660 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,200 15,330 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 494,420 462,660 Hazelnuts : 17,690 31,750 Pecans : 78,430 118,930 Pistachios (CA) : 137,440 52,620 Walnuts (CA) : 255,830 294,840 Maple Syrup : 7,370 6,190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. 2/ Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. March Weather Summary The month opened on a cool, stormy note in the West, but starting March 7 most areas from the Rockies westward endured dry weather and record-high temperatures. The warmth promoted spring fieldwork and winter grain development, but caused premature melting of high-elevation Western snow packs. Very warm weather also prevailed on the Plains, accompanied by mostly dry weather from eastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas northward into Montana. In contrast, showery weather aided pastures and winter grains across the southern and eastern Plains. Late in the month, however, heavy rain and melting snow caused lowland flooding in eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Meanwhile, generally wet weather in the Corn Belt slowed fieldwork but boosted soil moisture reserves in preparation for spring planting. Rain and snow eased long-term precipitation deficits across the upper Midwest and maintained adequate to locally excessive soil moisture for winter wheat across the southern and eastern Corn Belt. Farther south, an intensifying, six-month dry spell affected areas from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to the southern Atlantic States. By month's end, dry conditions increased stress on Southeastern pastures, winter grains, and emerging summer crops. In contrast, heavy rainfall eased irrigation demands in the lower Rio Grande Valley. Monthly temperatures generally averaged 4 to 8 degrees F above normal in the upper Midwest and across the western half of the Nation. Readings were as much as 10 degrees F above normal in parts of California and the Desert Southwest. Temperatures averaged 2 to 4 degrees F above normal in most locations from the Mississippi River to the Appalachians, but were as much as 2 degrees F below normal along the Atlantic Seaboard. Brief Eastern warm spells during the first week of March and again toward month's end prevented more significant negative temperature departures along the Atlantic Coast. March Crop Summary Above-normal temperatures prevailed across the Nation, while precipitation was concentrated in the eastern half of the Nation. Over 4 inches of rain fell across most of the Corn Belt and Ohio Valley. Most of this precipitation fell toward the beginning and end of the month, with mostly dry conditions prevailing around mid-month. Though temperatures were above normal across the region, the highest temperatures were in the western portion of the region. The rainfall was beneficial for winter wheat, but field preparation for summer crops was hampered by wet conditions. After a brief continuation of February's wet weather early in the month, the Southeast and Mississippi Delta remained mostly dry during the rest of March. Temperatures were above normal across most of the region, except for Florida's Gulf Coast, where temperatures averaged slightly below normal. However, temperatures were not low enough to damage citrus crops, which had reached full bloom by the end of the month. Dry soils across the Southeast delayed row crop planting. Across the Great Plains, temperatures were well above normal through most of the month. Precipitation was scarce in the northern and central parts of the region, causing winter wheat condition to deteriorate. In the southern part of the region, moderate to heavy rainfall early in the month helped small grains recover from moisture stress earlier in the winter. Precipitation was light to moderate in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic Coast States, with the highest totals in coastal areas. Light snow fell across parts of the region toward mid-month but melted quickly. Despite cold weather during that period, temperatures averaged slightly above normal across the region. After cold weather early in the month, temperatures well above normal prevailed across the Rocky Mountains through the end of the month. Precipitation was widely scattered across the region. A few areas received over 2 inches of rain, but most of the region remained dry. In the Pacific Northwest, precipitation was heavy in coastal areas, but lighter in the crop-producing areas farther inland, where most areas received 1 to 2 inches. Winter wheat condition improved with beneficial rains in the first and last weeks of the month. Temperatures were below normal during the first week, but remained above normal thereafter. Conditions in the Great Basin were very mild and dry, with monthly average temperatures ranging from 6 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Precipitation was very light and limited to the early part of the month. Similar conditions prevailed across the Southwest, although locally heavy showers temporarily relieved drought conditions in some areas. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2003-04 U.S. grapefruit crop is 2.10 million tons, up 1 percent from the March 1 forecast and 2 percent above the previous season. Florida's grapefruit forecast remains unchanged at 40.0 million boxes (1.70 million tons) but 3 percent above last season's final utilization. If realized, this will be the third smallest crop in the past 20 seasons. The white grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons) but 1 percent below last season. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 24.0 million boxes (1.02 million tons), remains unchanged but 7 percent above last season's final utilization. About 80 percent of Florida's grapefruit crop has been picked. California's grapefruit forecast, at 5.40 million boxes (181,000 tons), is up 4 percent from the previous forecast but 4 percent less than last season's final utilization. Exterior color is fair with good interior quality. Texture is smooth for all sizes. Flavor and eating quality are excellent. The Texas grapefruit forecast is 5.40 million boxes (216,000 tons), 2 percent above the previous forecast but 4 percent lower than last season. Arizona's grapefruit forecast remains unchanged from January at 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons) but is 23 percent less than last season's final utilization. Decreasing demand and land development are contributing factors to the production decline when compared to the previous season. Good size and quality are expected. Tangerines: The 2003-04 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 412,000 tons, up 4 percent from the March 1 forecast and 11 percent above last season's final utilization of 371,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop, at 6.30 million boxes (299,000 tons), is up 7 percent from last month and 15 percent above last season's utilization. Harvest of the early tangerine varieties is complete while the late season Honey variety harvest continued with good demand reported. California's forecast of tangerine production at 2.40 million boxes (90,000 tons), is down 4 percent from both the January 1 forecast and last season's utilized production. Fruit quality is reported as very good to excellent. The Arizona tangerine forecast of 600,000 boxes (23,000 tons) is unchanged from the previous forecast but 40 percent above last season. Fruit size is small with good quality expected. Lemons: The 2003-04 U.S. lemon crop is 988,000 tons, down 1 percent from the January 1 forecast and 4 percent below last season's final utilization. California production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes (874,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 4 percent below the 2002-03 season. Harvest is progressing well in the South Coastal area, while coming to an end in the Central Valley and desert region. Reported quality is excellent. Arizona's 2003-04 lemon forecast, at 3.00 million boxes (114,000 tons), is down 6 percent from the previous forecast but unchanged from the previous season. Small size fruit of good quality are being reported. Tangelos: Florida's 2003-04 tangelo forecast is final at 1.00 million boxes (45,000 tons), unchanged from March but 57 percent less than last season's utilized production. This is the smallest crop since the 1964-65 season. Temples: Florida's Temple forecast is 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons) for the 2003-04 season, unchanged from March but 8 percent above last season's final utilization. If attained, the crop will be the third smallest since the freeze affected 1989-90 season. Fruit droppage and size are below average. Florida Citrus: March weather in the citrus growing areas was mostly dry with cool nighttime temperatures and moderate to warm days. Several cold fronts passed through the State bringing overnight temperatures into the upper 30's in some northern locations. Daytime highs reached the mid 80's. The cold fronts brought very little rainfall with virtually none reported the first two weeks of the month. Rainfall during the third week brought up to two inches in some upper interior areas. Weather during the last month was cloudy and windy with very light amounts of coastal showers reported. Citrus trees in all areas are in excellent condition following the favorable weather of the past several months. By mid-month, lower interior and coastal area trees were in full bloom, followed by those in the upper interior area later in the month. Early-midseason harvest is mostly over as the season nears completion. Valencia oranges are beginning to be harvested with good demand reported for fresh shipments. Weekly harvest by the last of the month was up to 7 million boxes. Grapefruit harvest for fresh shipments increased during the month with harvest for processing also heavy. Honey tangerine harvest is strong with good demand reported. Temple harvest is complete for the season. Texas Citrus: Harvest is well underway for the 2003-04 season for most crops. Water supply in the Rio Grande Valley is abundant. Fruit quality and size are excellent. Some problems are being reported with Rust Mite and Blackfly. California Citrus: Irrigation, pruning, soil amendment, and foliar nutrient applications were underway in some harvested citrus orchards. Navel orange harvesting was ongoing throughout the month, though quality continued to deteriorate due to the warm weather. Early variety Valencia oranges were harvested in some areas of the Central Valley. Rio Red grapefruit were harvested in the desert areas, while the Pummelo harvest neared completion in the Central Valley. Tangelos were picked and packed. Lemon harvest continued in the South Coastal region throughout March, and was virtually complete in the Central Valley. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Treatments to control diseases, weeds, and insect pests continued in many tree fruit orchards, along with irrigation and cultivation. Weather conditions during March were excellent for pollination as California experienced many days of record high temperatures. By mid-month, late stone fruit orchards were still in bloom, but most were well into the petal fall stage and leafing out. By month's end, the bloom period had ended in most stone fruit orchards. The fruit set for early nectarine and peach varieties appears to be good. Apple, cherry, and pear orchards in the Central Valley were blooming by the end of March. Late pruning of cherry trees continued in the San Joaquin Valley. Rainfall during the last week of March slowed orchard work in some parts of the Sacramento Valley. Strawberries were blooming, with berries beginning to form in many fields by month's end. Some strawberry stands opened in Kern County. Prune orchards were treated for weeds. Swelling buds and newly opened green shoots appeared in many grape vineyards as vines responded to the warm, sunny weather. Cane training was ongoing in a few grape vineyards but pruning and tying were essentially completed for the season. Most almond orchards were fully leafed and developing well by month's end. Walnut and pistachio orchards were breaking dormancy. Walnut trees were pruned and treated for blight. Buds began to appear on pistachio trees. Winter Potatoes: The 2004 U.S. winter potato crop in California and Florida combined is forecast at 3.50 million cwt, 9 percent below the January forecast and 13 percent less than last year. Area for harvest, at 14,000 acres, is unchanged from January but down 2 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 250 cwt per acre is down 24 cwt from January and 32 cwt below a year ago. California's average yield is forecast at 250 cwt per acre, 40 cwt per acre below the January forecast. This reduced yield was caused by a freeze during the growing season in the Imperial Valley. The Florida forecast remains unchanged from January. Florida's Southern Peninsula producers have encountered no significant problems during harvest. Spring Potatoes: Spring production in 2004 is forecast at 19.7 million cwt, down 20 percent from last year. Area for harvest is estimated at 72,500 acres, 14 percent below 2003. The average yield is forecast at 271 cwt per acre, down 17 cwt from a year ago. Spring potato production in Florida is forecast at 5.61 million cwt, down 30 percent from a year ago. Total spring harvested acreage decreased 21 percent and average yield is 31 cwt per acre below last year. Both planted and harvested acreage declined due to a reduction in contracted acres. Mild conditions in February and March helped crop development although heavy showers in March reduced yield potential in some areas. North Carolina's spring potato crop is forecast at 2.85 million cwt, down 4 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to be down 12 percent from a year ago, due in part to a reduction in contracts for processing. Average yield is expected to increase 15 cwt per acre from a year ago. Some early planted fields have emerged. California's spring potato production forecast, at 6.83 million cwt, is 18 percent below last year. Area for harvest is down 8 percent and yield is down 50 cwt per acre. Generally poor market conditions prompted growers to reduce acreage. In some areas, frost affected the crop resulting in lower yields. Texas spring potato production is forecast at 2.42 million cwt, 19 percent below last season. Acreage for harvest has decreased 16 percent and the average yield is expected to decline 10 cwt per acre from a year ago. Producers report potatoes look good and weather conditions were holding constant. Arizona's production is forecast at 1.96 million cwt, down 6 percent from last year. Growers report a 8 percent decrease in acreage for harvest but expect a 5 cwt per acre yield increase over last year. Summer Potatoes, 2003 Revisions: The final estimate of 2003 summer potato crop production is 19.0 million cwt, down 1 percent from the preliminary estimate in the January Crop Production 2003 Summary but 6 percent above 2002. Harvested area covered 59,000 acres, down 1 percent from the January estimate and down less than 1 percent from 2002. The average yield of 322 cwt per acre is down 2 cwt from the January preliminary estimate. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.75 million pounds for March, 2 percent lower than February and 35 percent below March 2003. Area in crop totaled 2,110 acres, 4 percent below last month and 7 percent less than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,165 acres, 13 percent lower than February and 23 percent less than a year ago. Weather conditions were mostly wet during March. Soil moisture has been ample in non-irrigated orchards. Abundant rainfall throughout the month increased humidity levels resulting in favorable conditions for diseases such as Black spot and Phytophthora. These diseases adversely affect papaya leaves and roots, and reduce production. Reliability of April 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.0 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.0 percent. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.3 percent. Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 191,000 tons, ranging from 1,000 tons to 716,000 tons. The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times. The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Hay, Oats , Sorghum(202) 690-3234 Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas(202) 720-3250 Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Jim Smith - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202 )720-2127 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 The next Crop Production report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on May 12, 2004. 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