Cr Pr 2-2 (9-04) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 10, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Corn Production Up Fractionally from August Forecast Soybean Production Down 1 Percent Cotton Production Up 4 Percent Corn production is forecast at 11.0 billion bushels, up fractionally from last month and 8 percent above 2003. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 149.4 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from August and 7.2 bushels above last year. If realized, both production and yield would be the largest on record. The previous record for both was set last year when production was estimated at 10.1 billion bushels and yield was 142.2 bushels per acre. Yields are forecast at record high levels in all Corn Belt States, except Minnesota and Wisconsin, as weather conditions have been mostly favorable throughout the growing season. However, brief periods of freezing temperatures in the northern Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the Great Plains raised concerns about the crop being able to fully develop before a killing frost occurs. Soybean production is forecast at 2.84 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the August forecast but 17 percent above 2003. If realized, this would be the second highest production on record. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 38.5 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushel from August. Below-normal temperatures and adequate moisture across most of the Corn Belt, the Great Plains, and the Delta in August favored the soybean crop during the critical stages of development. However, yield prospects declined in the northern tier of States due to cool weather. A brief period of freezing temperatures slowed the development of a crop already behind in maturity in North Dakota and Minnesota. All cotton production is forecast at 20.9 million 480-pound bales, up 4 percent from last month and 14 percent above last year's 18.3 million bales. Yield is expected to average 758 pounds per acre, up 31 pounds from last month and 28 pounds from 2003. If realized, both production and yield would be the largest on record. Compared with August, production increased in Arizona, Arkansas, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Texas, offsetting declines in Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia. Harvested area, at 13.2 million acres, is down 1 percent from August but up 10 percent from 2003. Conditions improved in Arkansas, California, and Texas, leading to higher yield expectations than last month. California Navel orange production for the 2004-05 season is forecast at a record high 46.0 million boxes (1.73 million tons), up 21 percent from last season's revised 38.0 million boxes (1.43 million tons) and 4 percent above the 1989-90 season record of 44.3 million boxes (1.66 million tons). This initial forecast is based on an objective measurement survey conducted in the California Central Valley. Fruit set is showing an increase when compared to last season. Fruit size is highly variable but sizes overall are reported larger than last season. Fruit quality is expected to be lower than last season due to warm temperatures. This report was approved on September 10, 2004. Acting Secretary of Agriculture James R. Moseley Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Grains & Hay Corn for Grain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Plant Populations Per Acre . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Ears Per Acre. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Rice, by Class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Sorghum for Grain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Oilseeds Peanuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Soybeans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet . . . . . . . . . 26 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Cumulative Boll Counts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Cottonseed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Sugarbeets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Tobacco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Hazelnuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Pistachios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Walnuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Citrus Fruits Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops Potatoes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . . . . . . 37 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2004 : : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 :-------------------: 2003 : 2004 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels -------- --- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 190 240 122.0 120.0 120.0 23,180 28,800 AR : 350 300 140.0 140.0 140.0 49,000 42,000 CA : 170 190 160.0 160.0 160.0 27,200 30,400 CO : 890 930 135.0 126.0 132.0 120,150 122,760 DE : 162 155 123.0 126.0 128.0 19,926 19,840 GA : 285 280 129.0 125.0 130.0 36,765 36,400 IL : 11,050 11,550 164.0 168.0 170.0 1,812,200 1,963,500 IN : 5,390 5,300 146.0 156.0 157.0 786,940 832,100 IA : 12,000 12,200 157.0 162.0 163.0 1,884,000 1,988,600 KS : 2,500 2,900 120.0 145.0 145.0 300,000 420,500 KY : 1,080 1,140 137.0 142.0 142.0 147,960 161,880 LA : 500 445 134.0 125.0 135.0 67,000 60,075 MD : 410 440 123.0 141.0 143.0 50,430 62,920 MI : 2,090 1,950 126.0 124.0 122.0 263,340 237,900 MN : 6,650 7,100 146.0 151.0 147.0 970,900 1,043,700 MS : 530 450 135.0 140.0 136.0 71,550 61,200 MO : 2,800 2,900 108.0 144.0 144.0 302,400 417,600 NE : 7,700 7,900 146.0 155.0 157.0 1,124,200 1,240,300 NJ : 61 72 113.0 120.0 120.0 6,893 8,640 NM : 48 49 180.0 180.0 180.0 8,640 8,820 NY : 440 450 121.0 116.0 116.0 53,240 52,200 NC : 680 760 106.0 110.0 115.0 72,080 87,400 ND : 1,170 1,600 112.0 110.0 105.0 131,040 168,000 OH : 3,070 3,000 156.0 154.0 156.0 478,920 468,000 OK : 190 175 125.0 150.0 150.0 23,750 26,250 PA : 890 900 115.0 123.0 129.0 102,350 116,100 SC : 215 265 105.0 94.0 95.0 22,575 25,175 SD : 3,850 3,950 111.0 118.0 118.0 427,350 466,100 TN : 630 630 131.0 138.0 140.0 82,530 88,200 TX : 1,650 1,600 118.0 130.0 130.0 194,700 208,000 VA : 330 330 115.0 137.0 143.0 37,950 47,190 WA : 70 100 195.0 195.0 195.0 13,650 19,500 WI : 2,850 2,850 129.0 130.0 127.0 367,650 361,950 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 248 276 134.8 138.3 140.3 33,428 38,710 : US : 71,139 73,377 142.2 148.9 149.4 10,113,88710,960,710 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, FL, ID, MT, OR, UT, WV, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary". Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2004 : : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 :-------------------: 2003 : 2004 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels -------- 1,000 Bushels : AR : 210 90 82.0 80.0 80.0 17,220 7,200 CO : 160 200 27.0 40.0 38.0 4,320 7,600 IL : 105 95 82.0 93.0 98.0 8,610 9,310 KS : 2,900 2,800 45.0 72.0 75.0 130,500 210,000 LA : 165 95 85.0 70.0 65.0 14,025 6,175 MO : 210 150 77.0 100.0 100.0 16,170 15,000 NE : 500 420 62.0 85.0 85.0 31,000 35,700 NM : 62 90 27.0 35.0 35.0 1,674 3,150 OK : 250 270 37.0 46.0 50.0 9,250 13,500 SD : 150 160 45.0 56.0 46.0 6,750 7,360 TX : 2,850 2,400 54.0 61.0 61.0 153,900 146,400 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 236 146 75.5 74.4 74.5 17,818 10,874 : US : 7,798 6,916 52.7 67.2 68.3 411,237 472,269 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AL, AZ, CA, DE, GA, KY, MD, MS, NC, PA, SC, TN, and VA. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary". Rice: Area Planted and Harvested by Class, State, and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Area Planted : Area Harvested and :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 2/ : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Long Grain : 1,000 Acres AR : 1,350.0 1,300.0 1,410.0 1,340.0 1,290.0 1,400.0 CA : 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 LA : 530.0 435.0 520.0 525.0 430.0 515.0 MS : 255.0 235.0 235.0 253.0 234.0 233.0 MO : 190.0 175.0 195.0 182.0 170.0 193.0 TX : 205.0 180.0 220.0 205.0 179.0 215.0 : US : 2,537.0 2,332.0 2,587.0 2,512.0 2,310.0 2,563.0 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Medium Grain :----------------------------------------------------------------------- AR : 165.0 165.0 160.0 162.0 164.0 159.0 CA : 500.0 460.0 550.0 495.0 458.0 545.0 LA : 10.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 20.0 15.0 MO : 0 1.0 1.0 0 1.0 1 TX : 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 : US : 676.0 647.0 728.0 668.0 644.0 722.0 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Short Grain :----------------------------------------------------------------------- AR : 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 CA : 26.0 42.0 48.0 26.0 42.0 48.0 : US : 27.0 43.0 49.0 27.0 43.0 49.0 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : All :----------------------------------------------------------------------- AR : 1,516.0 1,466.0 1,571.0 1,503.0 1,455.0 1,560.0 CA : 533.0 509.0 605.0 528.0 507.0 600.0 LA : 540.0 455.0 535.0 535.0 450.0 530.0 MS : 255.0 235.0 235.0 253.0 234.0 233.0 MO : 190.0 176.0 196.0 182.0 171.0 194.0 TX : 206.0 181.0 222.0 206.0 180.0 217.0 : US : 3,240.0 3,022.0 3,364.0 3,207.0 2,997.0 3,334.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Sweet rice acreage and production included with short grain in 2003 and 2004, but not previous years. 2/ Updated from "Acreage" released June 30, 2004. Rice: Yield and Production by Class, State, and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Class : Yield : Production and :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : 2004 : : : : 2002 : 2003 :------------------: 2002 : 2003 : 2004 2/ : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Long Grain : -------------- Pounds -------------- -------- 1,000 Cwt -------- AR : 6,430 6,600 86,162 85,140 CA : 6,400 6,900 448 483 LA : 5,500 5,870 28,875 25,241 MS : 6,400 6,800 16,192 15,912 MO : 6,050 6,130 11,011 10,421 TX : 7,100 6,600 14,555 11,814 : US : 6,260 6,451 157,243 149,011 162,533 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Medium Grain :--------------------------------------------------------------------- AR : 6,500 6,500 10,530 10,660 CA : 8,300 7,750 41,085 35,495 LA : 5,250 5,780 525 1,156 MO : 0 6,300 0 63 TX : 6,100 6,600 61 66 : US : 7,815 7,366 52,201 47,440 55,896 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Short Grain :--------------------------------------------------------------------- AR : 6,000 6,000 60 60 CA : 5,600 6,300 1,456 2,646 : US : 5,615 6,293 1,516 2,706 3,302 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : All :--------------------------------------------------------------------- AR : 6,440 6,590 6,650 6,650 96,752 95,860 103,740 CA : 8,140 7,620 7,900 7,900 42,989 38,624 47,400 LA : 5,500 5,870 5,600 5,300 29,400 26,397 28,090 MS : 6,400 6,800 6,700 6,900 16,192 15,912 16,077 MO : 6,050 6,130 6,250 6,350 11,011 10,484 12,319 TX : 7,100 6,600 6,500 6,500 14,616 11,880 14,105 : US : 6,578 6,645 6,680 6,651 210,960 199,157 221,731 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Sweet rice acreage and production included with short grain in 2003 and 2004, but not previous years. 2/ Indicated September 1, 2004, rice class estimates are based on a 5-year average of class percentages. The class percentages are adjusted as data become available through the growing season. State estimates by class will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary". Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2004 : : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 :-------------------: 2003 : 2004 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 160 195 36.0 33.0 35.0 5,760 6,825 AR : 2,890 3,050 38.0 36.0 39.0 109,820 118,950 DE : 178 207 36.0 38.0 41.0 6,408 8,487 GA : 180 240 33.0 29.0 30.0 5,940 7,200 IL : 10,250 9,850 36.5 44.0 44.0 374,125 433,400 IN : 5,350 5,430 38.0 45.0 45.0 203,300 244,350 IA : 10,550 10,350 32.0 42.0 40.0 337,600 414,000 KS : 2,480 2,550 23.0 34.0 37.0 57,040 94,350 KY : 1,240 1,270 43.0 41.0 41.0 53,320 52,070 LA : 740 950 34.0 30.0 31.0 25,160 29,450 MD : 430 490 37.0 38.0 38.0 15,910 18,620 MI : 1,990 1,990 27.0 33.0 31.0 53,730 61,690 MN : 7,400 7,300 31.0 40.0 36.0 229,400 262,800 MS : 1,430 1,630 39.0 34.0 37.0 55,770 60,310 MO : 4,940 4,940 29.0 36.0 38.0 143,260 187,720 NE : 4,490 4,700 40.0 46.0 45.0 179,600 211,500 NJ : 88 96 34.0 36.0 40.0 2,992 3,840 NY : 138 168 35.0 36.0 33.0 4,830 5,544 NC : 1,400 1,400 30.0 30.0 32.0 42,000 44,800 ND : 3,030 3,630 29.0 31.0 26.0 87,870 94,380 OH : 4,280 4,420 38.0 40.0 40.0 162,640 176,800 OK : 245 290 26.0 27.0 32.0 6,370 9,280 PA : 375 395 41.0 42.0 43.0 15,375 16,985 SC : 420 450 28.0 25.0 26.0 11,760 11,700 SD : 4,190 4,140 27.0 33.0 33.0 113,130 136,620 TN : 1,120 1,140 41.0 37.0 39.0 45,920 44,460 TX : 180 225 28.0 31.0 31.0 5,040 6,975 VA : 480 490 34.0 36.0 36.0 16,320 17,640 WI : 1,650 1,640 28.0 36.0 33.0 46,200 54,120 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 27 29 36.1 39.2 38.7 975 1,123 : US : 72,321 73,655 33.4 39.1 38.5 2,417,565 2,835,989 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include FL and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary". Peanuts: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield and Production by State and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Acres : AL : 185.0 190.0 200.0 180.0 185.0 195.0 FL : 96.0 125.0 145.0 86.0 115.0 135.0 GA : 510.0 545.0 620.0 505.0 540.0 610.0 NM : 18.0 18.0 17.0 18.0 17.0 16.0 NC : 101.0 101.0 105.0 100.0 100.0 105.0 OK : 60.0 37.0 34.0 57.0 35.0 32.0 SC : 10.0 19.0 35.0 8.7 17.0 33.0 TX : 315.0 275.0 240.0 280.0 270.0 235.0 VA : 58.0 34.0 33.0 57.0 33.0 32.0 : US : 1,353.0 1,344.0 1,429.0 1,291.7 1,312.0 1,393.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2004 : : : : 2002 : 2003 :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 : 2004 : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- Pounds ------------- --- 1,000 Pounds --- : AL : 2,110 2,750 2,900 2,800 379,800 508,750 546,000 FL : 2,300 3,000 3,100 3,100 197,800 345,000 418,500 GA : 2,600 3,450 3,300 3,300 1,313,000 1,863,0002,013,000 NM : 3,000 2,700 3,000 3,000 54,000 45,900 48,000 NC : 2,100 3,200 3,200 3,200 210,000 320,000 336,000 OK : 2,800 2,800 3,000 3,200 159,600 98,000 102,400 SC : 2,200 3,400 3,100 3,100 19,140 57,800 102,300 TX : 3,100 3,000 3,300 3,300 868,000 810,000 775,500 VA : 2,100 2,900 3,100 3,100 119,700 95,700 99,200 : US : 2,571 3,159 3,198 3,188 3,321,040 4,144,1504,440,900 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from "Acreage" released on June 30, 2004. Cotton: Area Planted by Type, State, and United States, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Upland : Amer-Pima : All State :------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2003 : 2004 1/ : 2003 : 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : AL : 525.0 550.0 525.0 550.0 AZ : 215.0 238.0 2.5 3.0 217.5 241.0 AR : 980.0 930.0 980.0 930.0 CA : 550.0 560.0 150.0 220.0 700.0 780.0 FL : 94.0 90.0 94.0 90.0 GA : 1,300.0 1,290.0 1,300.0 1,290.0 KS : 90.0 100.0 90.0 100.0 LA : 525.0 500.0 525.0 500.0 MS : 1,110.0 1,100.0 1,110.0 1,100.0 MO : 400.0 390.0 400.0 390.0 NM : 53.0 68.0 6.1 11.0 59.1 79.0 NC : 810.0 730.0 810.0 730.0 OK : 180.0 210.0 180.0 210.0 SC : 220.0 220.0 220.0 220.0 TN : 560.0 550.0 560.0 550.0 TX : 5,600.0 5,900.0 20.0 21.0 5,620.0 5,921.0 VA : 89.0 82.0 89.0 82.0 : US : 13,301.0 13,508.0 178.6 255.0 13,479.6 13,763.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from the "Crop Production " released August 12, 2004. Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 2004 : : State : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 :-------------------: 2003 : 2004 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 510.0 545.0 772 749 749 820.0 850.0 AZ : 213.0 236.0 1,239 1,284 1,322 550.0 650.0 AR : 945.0 920.0 916 877 903 1,804.0 1,730.0 CA : 545.0 557.0 1,317 1,422 1,465 1,495.0 1,700.0 GA : 1,290.0 1,260.0 785 738 762 2,110.0 2,000.0 LA : 510.0 490.0 967 637 637 1,027.0 650.0 MS : 1,090.0 1,080.0 934 800 800 2,120.0 1,800.0 MO : 390.0 385.0 862 849 823 700.0 660.0 NM : 38.0 64.0 884 960 938 70.0 125.0 NC : 770.0 725.0 646 728 742 1,037.0 1,120.0 OK : 170.0 195.0 616 645 645 218.0 262.0 SC : 218.0 218.0 718 731 731 326.0 332.0 TN : 530.0 540.0 806 833 827 890.0 930.0 TX : 4,350.0 5,500.0 478 550 611 4,330.0 7,000.0 VA : 85.0 81.0 674 877 836 119.4 141.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 172.0 174.0 576 681 648 206.5 235.0 : US :11,826.0 12,970.0 723 716 747 17,822.9 20,185.0 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 2.4 3.0 920 960 960 4.6 6.0 CA : 149.0 219.0 1,194 1,403 1,403 370.5 640.0 NM : 6.0 11.0 1,056 840 916 13.2 21.0 TX : 20.0 20.0 1,056 1,032 1,032 44.0 43.0 : US : 177.4 253.0 1,170 1,350 1,347 432.3 710.0 : All : AL : 510.0 545.0 772 749 749 820.0 850.0 AZ : 215.4 239.0 1,236 1,280 1,317 554.6 656.0 AR : 945.0 920.0 916 877 903 1,804.0 1,730.0 CA : 694.0 776.0 1,290 1,416 1,447 1,865.5 2,340.0 GA : 1,290.0 1,260.0 785 738 762 2,110.0 2,000.0 LA : 510.0 490.0 967 637 637 1,027.0 650.0 MS : 1,090.0 1,080.0 934 800 800 2,120.0 1,800.0 MO : 390.0 385.0 862 849 823 700.0 660.0 NM : 44.0 75.0 908 946 934 83.2 146.0 NC : 770.0 725.0 646 728 742 1,037.0 1,120.0 OK : 170.0 195.0 616 645 645 218.0 262.0 SC : 218.0 218.0 718 731 731 326.0 332.0 TN : 530.0 540.0 806 833 827 890.0 930.0 TX : 4,370.0 5,520.0 480 552 612 4,374.0 7,043.0 VA : 85.0 81.0 674 877 836 119.4 141.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 172.0 174.0 576 681 648 206.5 235.0 : US :12,003.4 13,223.0 730 727 758 18,255.2 20,895.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3/ Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary". Cottonseed: Production, United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 6,183.9 6,664.6 7,629.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Acres ----- ---- Pounds --- ------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : CT : 2,180 2,300 1,361 1,740 3,315 2,966 4,001 FL : 4,400 4,000 2,500 2,600 11,960 11,000 10,400 GA : 27,000 24,000 2,200 1,900 53,000 59,400 45,600 IN : 4,200 4,300 1,950 2,050 7,800 8,190 8,815 KY : 111,650 113,800 2,016 2,048 222,991 225,042 233,110 MD : 1,100 1,100 1,450 1,600 1,800 1,595 1,760 MA : 1,250 1,200 1,398 1,725 1,859 1,748 2,070 MO 1/ : 1,400 1,400 2,020 2,600 3,122 2,828 3,640 NC : 159,700 159,000 1,878 2,215 347,920 299,995 352,150 OH : 5,300 5,800 1,650 1,900 9,625 8,745 11,020 PA : 3,700 4,000 2,130 2,190 6,815 7,880 8,760 SC : 30,000 27,000 2,100 2,200 59,475 63,000 59,400 TN : 31,140 31,380 2,108 2,118 71,331 65,632 66,472 VA : 25,110 31,270 1,546 2,217 64,407 38,818 69,325 WV 1/ : 1,200 1,300 1,300 1,500 1,885 1,560 1,950 WI : 1,820 1,700 2,338 2,409 3,817 4,255 4,095 : US : 411,150 413,550 1,952 2,134 871,122 802,654 882,568 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 40,000 40,000 1,770 2,250 70,800 90,000 VA : 18,000 23,000 1,690 2,350 30,420 54,050 US : 58,000 63,000 1,745 2,287 101,220 144,050 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 94,000 93,000 1,955 2,250 183,770 209,250 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 20,000 20,000 1,915 2,150 38,300 43,000 SC : 30,000 27,000 2,100 2,200 63,000 59,400 US : 50,000 47,000 2,026 2,179 101,300 102,400 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 4,400 4,000 2,500 2,600 11,000 10,400 GA : 27,000 24,000 2,200 1,900 59,400 45,600 US : 31,400 28,000 2,242 2,000 70,400 56,000 Total 11-14 : 233,400 231,000 1,957 2,215 456,690 511,700 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 550 700 1,525 1,850 839 1,295 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 2,600 2,700 3,080 3,200 8,008 8,640 TN : 5,200 5,400 2,980 3,000 15,496 16,200 US : 7,800 8,100 3,013 3,067 23,504 24,840 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 2,500 2,500 3,530 3,600 8,825 9,000 TN : 400 420 3,350 3,400 1,340 1,428 US : 2,900 2,920 3,505 3,571 10,165 10,428 Total 21-23 : 11,250 11,720 3,067 3,120 34,508 36,563 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 4,200 4,300 1,950 2,050 8,190 8,815 KY : 103,000 105,000 1,925 1,950 198,275 204,750 MO 1/ : 1,400 1,400 2,020 2,600 2,828 3,640 NC : 5,700 6,000 1,250 1,650 7,125 9,900 OH : 5,300 5,800 1,650 1,900 8,745 11,020 TN : 25,000 25,000 1,900 1,900 47,500 47,500 VA : 6,500 7,500 1,150 1,850 7,475 13,875 WV 1/ : 1,200 1,300 1,300 1,500 1,560 1,950 US : 152,300 156,300 1,850 1,929 281,698 301,450 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 1,100 1,100 1,450 1,600 1,595 1,760 PA : 1,300 2,200 2,000 2,100 2,600 4,620 US : 2,400 3,300 1,748 1,933 4,195 6,380 Total 31-32 : 154,700 159,600 1,848 1,929 285,893 307,830 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark : Air-cured : Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 2,300 2,300 2,830 3,050 6,509 7,015 TN : 540 560 2,400 2,400 1,296 1,344 US : 2,840 2,860 2,748 2,923 7,805 8,359 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 1,250 1,300 2,740 2,850 3,425 3,705 Type 37, VA Sun-cured: Belt : VA : 60 70 1,400 1,500 84 105 Total 35-37 : 4,150 4,230 2,726 2,877 11,314 12,169 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 2,400 1,800 2,200 2,300 5,280 4,140 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT : 1,400 1,450 1,400 1,850 1,960 2,683 MA : 970 900 1,470 1,800 1,426 1,620 US : 2,370 2,350 1,429 1,831 3,386 4,303 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI: WI : 1,400 1,300 2,480 2,550 3,472 3,315 Type 55, Northern WI: WI : 420 400 1,865 1,950 783 780 Total 54-55 : 1,820 1,700 2,338 2,409 4,255 4,095 Total 51-55 : 4,190 4,050 1,824 2,074 7,641 8,398 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper: Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT : 780 850 1,290 1,550 1,006 1,318 MA : 280 300 1,150 1,500 322 450 US : 1,060 1,150 1,253 1,537 1,328 1,768 All Cigar Types : Total 41-61 : 7,650 7,000 1,863 2,044 14,249 14,306 : All Tobacco : 411,150 413,550 1,952 2,134 802,654 882,568 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Area Planted :Area Harvested : Yield : Production Group and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Acres ------- --- Cwt --- --- 1,000 Cwt -- : Winter 1/ : CA : 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 310 250 2,635 2,125 FL : 6.1 5.7 5.8 5.5 240 250 1,392 1,375 : Total : 14.6 14.2 14.3 14.0 282 250 4,027 3,500 : Spring 1/ : AZ : 7.6 6.2 7.6 6.2 275 285 2,090 1,767 CA : 19.0 17.5 19.0 17.5 440 380 8,360 6,650 FL : 30.0 22.8 28.6 22.5 280 249 8,008 5,605 Hastings : 21.5 16.2 20.3 16.0 280 265 5,684 4,240 Other FL : 8.5 6.6 8.3 6.5 280 210 2,324 1,365 NC : 19.0 16.0 17.0 15.0 175 190 2,975 2,850 TX : 13.0 11.0 12.5 10.5 240 210 3,000 2,205 : Total : 88.6 73.5 84.7 71.7 288 266 24,433 19,077 : Summer 2/ : AL : 3.0 2.9 1.8 2.0 185 165 333 330 CA : 7.5 7.0 7.2 7.0 385 380 2,772 2,660 CO : 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 360 365 2,304 2,336 DE : 3.7 3.3 3.6 3.2 240 260 864 832 IL : 6.5 5.0 6.1 4.8 360 350 2,196 1,680 KS : 2.8 3.2 2.7 3.1 380 400 1,026 1,240 MD : 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 240 260 1,104 1,196 MO : 8.0 6.0 7.1 5.5 265 315 1,882 1,733 NJ : 2.8 2.3 2.7 2.3 250 275 675 633 NM : 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.5 280 300 532 450 TX : 9.0 10.4 8.4 9.6 420 440 3,528 4,224 VA : 7.0 6.0 6.2 5.1 250 230 1,550 1,173 : Total : 63.4 58.8 58.7 55.1 320 336 18,766 18,487 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2003-2004 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal : Area Planted :Area Harvested : Yield : Production Group and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--------- 1,000 Acres --------- -- Cwt -- 1,000 Cwt : Fall 2/ 3/ : CA : 8.3 7.7 8.3 7.7 425 3,528 CO : 66.3 65.0 65.7 64.8 360 23,652 ID : 360.0 350.0 358.0 348.0 344 123,180 10 SW Co: 25.0 26.0 25.0 26.0 465 11,625 Other ID: 335.0 324.0 333.0 322.0 335 111,555 IN : 3.8 3.4 3.7 3.2 250 925 ME : 66.0 63.5 65.5 63.0 260 17,030 MA : 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.5 265 716 MI : 46.0 43.0 45.5 42.0 330 15,015 MN : 60.0 53.0 58.0 49.0 385 22,330 MT : 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 315 3,339 NE : 23.5 22.0 23.2 21.5 420 9,744 NV : 8.3 6.7 8.0 6.7 415 3,320 NM : 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 400 1,600 NY : 22.2 20.0 21.7 19.7 300 6,510 ND : 117.0 95.0 112.0 91.0 245 27,440 OH : 4.5 3.7 4.3 3.6 255 1,097 OR : 42.8 40.0 42.6 40.0 493 20,991 Malheur : 5.8 5.3 5.8 5.3 415 2,407 Other OR: 37.0 34.7 36.8 34.7 505 18,584 PA : 13.0 12.0 12.5 11.0 270 3,375 RI : 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 285 171 SD 4/ : 1.0 1.0 340 340 UT 4/ : 1.0 1.0 335 335 WA : 163.0 160.0 162.0 160.0 575 93,150 WI : 81.0 75.0 80.0 74.0 410 32,800 : Total :1,106.0 1,037.8 1,090.9 1,022.8 376 410,588 : US :1,272.6 1,184.3 1,248.6 1,163.6 367 457,814 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ 2003 crop revised. 3/ The forecast of fall potato production will be published in the November "Crop Production". 4/ Estimates discontinued in 2004. Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2004 : : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 :-------------------: 2003 : 2004 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Tons --------- -- 1,000 Tons -- : FL : 438.0 420.0 39.3 37.0 37.0 17,231 15,540 HI : 21.3 24.1 97.7 94.0 94.0 2,082 2,265 LA : 490.0 475.0 26.2 27.0 26.0 12,838 12,350 TX : 45.1 42.5 37.8 36.0 36.0 1,706 1,530 : US : 994.4 961.6 34.0 33.4 33.0 33,857 31,685 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2004 : : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 :-------------------: 2003 : 2004 : : : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- --------- Tons --------- -- 1,000 Tons -- : CA : 50.2 49.0 36.5 37.3 37.3 1,832 1,828 CO : 27.4 33.4 23.5 23.1 22.7 644 758 ID : 207.0 192.0 29.2 26.6 27.1 6,044 5,203 MI : 178.0 163.0 19.1 18.0 18.5 3,400 3,016 MN : 487.0 479.0 20.6 19.6 19.6 10,032 9,388 MT : 51.5 52.2 25.4 21.0 21.0 1,308 1,096 NE : 42.4 47.6 20.3 20.2 20.0 861 952 ND : 255.0 256.0 20.4 19.5 19.5 5,202 4,992 OH : 1.9 1.6 24.2 21.5 21.5 46 34 OR : 9.8 12.5 30.7 28.9 29.0 301 363 WA : 4.0 3.8 40.3 37.6 37.6 161 143 WY : 33.7 35.5 22.3 21.0 21.8 752 774 : US : 1,347.9 1,325.6 22.7 21.4 21.5 30,583 28,547 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA. Oranges: Utilized Production by State and United States, 2002-03, 2003-04 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 1/ 2/ 3/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2004-05 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2004-05 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 Boxes ------ ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Early Mid & : Navel 4/ : AZ : 200 300 8 12 CA : 42,000 38,000 46,000 1,575 1,426 1,725 FL : 112,000 126,000 5,040 5,670 TX : 1,350 1,420 57 60 US : 155,550 165,720 6,680 7,168 Valencia : AZ : 270 170 10 6 CA : 20,000 14,000 751 526 FL : 91,000 116,000 4,095 5,220 TX : 220 230 9 10 US : 111,490 130,400 4,865 5,762 All : AZ : 470 470 18 18 CA : 62,000 52,000 2,326 1,952 FL : 203,000 242,000 9,135 10,890 TX : 1,570 1,650 66 70 US : 267,040 296,120 11,545 12,930 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002-03 and 2003-04 revised. Revised grapefruit and other citrus fruit totals will be released September 23, 2004, in "Citrus Fruits 2004 Summary". 2/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 3/ Net lbs. per box: AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85. 4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Jul : 2,175 1,995 1,565 1,060 3,425 2,810 Aug : 2,370 2,185 1,565 1,385 3,240 2,680 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Nuts: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted September 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : Hazelnuts : OR : 19,500 37,900 44,000 : Walnuts : CA : 282,000 326,000 325,000 : : 1,000 Pounds : : Pistachios 1/ : CA : 303,000 119,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2004 Preliminary Summary" to be released in January 2005. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,299.0 4,666.0 4,688.0 4,152.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 78,736.0 80,968.0 71,139.0 73,377.0 Corn for Silage : 6,528.0 Hay, All : 63,342.0 61,589.0 Alfalfa : 23,578.0 22,226.0 All Other : 39,764.0 39,363.0 Oats : 4,601.0 4,220.0 2,224.0 1,938.0 Proso Millet : 730.0 720.0 620.0 Rice : 3,022.0 3,364.0 2,997.0 3,334.0 Rye : 1,368.0 1,330.0 339.0 343.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,420.0 8,099.0 7,798.0 6,916.0 Sorghum for Silage : 343.0 Wheat, All : 61,700.0 59,719.0 52,839.0 50,556.0 Winter : 44,945.0 43,450.0 36,541.0 34,825.0 Durum : 2,915.0 2,592.0 2,869.0 2,521.0 Other Spring : 13,840.0 13,677.0 13,429.0 13,210.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,082.0 946.0 1,068.0 919.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 595.0 629.0 583.0 608.0 Mustard Seed : 110.0 68.5 107.0 65.9 Peanuts : 1,344.0 1,429.0 1,312.0 1,393.0 Rapeseed : 1.3 11.8 1.2 11.4 Safflower : 221.0 142.0 212.0 133.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,404.0 74,809.0 72,321.0 73,655.0 Sunflower : 2,344.0 1,882.0 2,197.0 1,801.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,479.6 13,763.0 12,003.4 13,223.0 Upland : 13,301.0 13,508.0 11,826.0 12,970.0 Amer-Pima : 178.6 255.0 177.4 253.0 Sugarbeets : 1,365.4 1,349.8 1,347.9 1,325.6 Sugarcane : 994.4 961.6 Tobacco : 411.2 413.6 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 21.1 25.5 15.6 16.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,406.1 1,360.4 1,346.9 1,301.1 Dry Edible Peas : 337.5 480.0 328.5 454.0 Lentils : 246.0 300.0 237.0 293.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.9 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.2 0.2 Hops : 28.7 28.0 Peppermint Oil : 78.2 Potatoes, All : 1,272.6 1,184.3 1,248.6 1,163.6 Winter : 14.6 14.2 14.3 14.0 Spring : 88.6 73.5 84.7 71.7 Summer : 63.4 58.8 58.7 55.1 Fall : 1,106.0 1,037.8 1,090.9 1,022.8 Spearmint Oil : 15.8 Sweet Potatoes : 95.8 99.1 92.6 96.3 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 58.9 65.7 276,087 272,824 Corn for Grain : " : 142.2 149.4 10,113,887 10,960,710 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.2 105,864 Hay, All : " : 2.48 2.63 157,123 161,763 Alfalfa : " : 3.24 3.48 76,307 77,264 All Other : " : 2.03 2.15 80,816 84,499 Oats : Bu : 65.0 66.0 144,649 127,950 Proso Millet : " : 18.5 11,450 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,645 6,651 199,157 221,731 Rye : Bu : 27.3 9,254 Sorghum for Grain : " : 52.7 68.3 411,237 472,269 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 10.4 3,552 Wheat, All : Bu : 44.2 42.0 2,336,526 2,122,894 Winter : " : 46.7 42.8 1,707,069 1,489,408 Durum : " : 33.7 35.3 96,637 88,951 Other Spring : " : 39.7 41.2 532,820 544,535 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,416 1,512,250 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,664.6 7,629.8 Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 10,426 Mustard Seed : Lb : 723 77,372 Peanuts : " : 3,159 3,188 4,144,150 4,440,900 Rapeseed : " : 949 1,139 Safflower : " : 1,286 272,555 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 33.4 38.5 2,417,565 2,835,989 Sunflower : Lb : 1,213 2,665,226 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 730 758 18,255.2 20,895.0 Upland 2/ : " : 723 747 17,822.9 20,185.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,170 1,347 432.3 710.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 22.7 21.5 30,583 28,547 Sugarcane : " : 34.0 33.0 33,857 31,685 Tobacco : Lb : 1,952 2,134 802,654 882,568 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,115 174 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,672 1,639 22,515 21,323 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,584 5,202 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,030 2,442 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 673 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,407 8,300 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 37,500 40,000 6,000 6,000 Hops : " : 1,903 1,982 54,565.1 55,537.9 Peppermint Oil : " : 89 6,924 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 367 457,814 Winter : " : 282 250 4,027 3,500 Spring : " : 288 266 24,433 19,077 Summer : " : 320 336 18,766 18,487 Fall : " : 376 410,588 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 113 1,778 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 172 15,891 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 5,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,424 2,063 2,148 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/: " : 1 Lemons : " : 801 1,026 798 Oranges 4/ : " : 12,374 11,545 12,930 Tangelos (FL) : " : 97 106 45 Tangerines : " : 420 371 425 Temples (FL) : " : 70 59 63 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 8,523.9 8,613.3 9,365.9 Apricots : Ton : 90.0 97.6 95.6 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 20,000.0 22,500.0 Grapes : Ton : 7,338.9 6,572.7 6,361.4 Olives (CA) : " : 103.0 118.0 85.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 45,900.0 42,600.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,535.0 2,519.0 2,598.4 Pears : Ton : 890.0 928.1 908.0 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 172.0 181.0 70.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 15.7 16.3 24.5 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 1,090,000 1,040,000 1,080,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 19.5 37.7 44.0 Pecans : Lb : 172,900 282,100 Pistachios (CA) 5/ : " : 303,000 119,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 282.0 326.0 325.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,475 1,260 1,507 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. 4/ Orange production revised. Grapefruit and other citrus fruit revisions will be released on September 23, 2004 in "Citrus Fruits 2004 Summary". 5/ September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2004 Preliminary Summary" to be released in January 2005. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,144,450 1,888,280 1,897,190 1,680,270 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,863,670 32,766,940 28,789,240 29,694,940 Corn for Silage : 2,641,820 Hay, All 3/ : 25,633,870 24,924,450 Alfalfa : 9,541,780 8,994,640 All Other : 16,092,090 15,929,810 Oats : 1,861,980 1,707,790 900,030 784,290 Proso Millet : 295,420 291,380 250,910 Rice : 1,222,970 1,361,380 1,212,860 1,349,240 Rye : 553,620 538,240 137,190 138,810 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,812,180 3,277,580 3,155,770 2,798,840 Sorghum for Silage : 138,810 Wheat, All 3/ :24,969,370 24,167,680 21,383,410 20,459,510 Winter :18,188,790 17,583,780 14,787,780 14,093,330 Durum : 1,179,670 1,048,960 1,161,060 1,020,220 Other Spring : 5,600,910 5,534,950 5,434,580 5,345,950 : Oilseeds : Canola : 437,870 382,840 432,210 371,910 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 240,790 254,550 235,930 246,050 Mustard Seed : 44,520 27,720 43,300 26,670 Peanuts : 543,900 578,300 530,950 563,730 Rapeseed : 530 4,780 490 4,610 Safflower : 89,440 57,470 85,790 53,820 Soybeans for Beans :29,705,860 30,274,450 29,267,590 29,807,440 Sunflower : 948,590 761,630 889,100 728,850 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,455,060 5,569,750 4,857,660 5,351,220 Upland : 5,382,780 5,466,550 4,785,860 5,248,830 Amer-Pima : 72,280 103,200 71,790 102,390 Sugarbeets : 552,560 546,250 545,480 536,460 Sugarcane : 402,420 389,150 Tobacco : 166,390 167,360 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,540 10,320 6,310 6,720 Dry Edible Beans : 569,030 550,540 545,080 526,540 Dry Edible Peas : 136,580 194,250 132,940 183,730 Lentils : 99,550 121,410 95,910 118,570 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,390 Ginger Root (HI) : 60 60 Hops : 11,600 11,340 Peppermint Oil : 31,650 Potatoes, All 3/ : 515,010 479,270 505,300 470,900 Winter : 5,910 5,750 5,790 5,670 Spring : 35,860 29,740 34,280 29,020 Summer : 25,660 23,800 23,760 22,300 Fall : 447,590 419,990 441,480 413,920 Spearmint Oil : 6,390 Sweet Potatoes : 38,770 40,100 37,470 38,970 Taro (HI) 4/ : 170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.17 3.54 6,011,080 5,940,040 Corn for Grain : 8.92 9.38 256,904,560 278,414,860 Corn for Silage : 36.35 96,038,210 Hay, All 2/ : 5.56 5.89 142,539,590 146,748,930 Alfalfa : 7.25 7.79 69,224,550 70,092,720 All Other : 4.56 4.81 73,315,040 76,656,200 Oats : 2.33 2.37 2,099,570 1,857,190 Proso Millet : 1.03 259,680 Rice : 7.45 7.45 9,033,610 10,057,550 Rye : 1.71 235,060 Sorghum for Grain : 3.31 4.29 10,445,900 11,996,190 Sorghum for Silage : 23.21 3,222,320 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.97 2.82 63,589,820 57,775,710 Winter : 3.14 2.88 46,458,800 40,535,040 Durum : 2.27 2.37 2,630,030 2,420,850 Other Spring : 2.67 2.77 14,500,980 14,819,810 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.59 685,950 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,046,020 6,921,640 Flaxseed : 1.12 264,830 Mustard Seed : 0.81 35,100 Peanuts : 3.54 3.57 1,879,750 2,014,360 Rapeseed : 1.06 520 Safflower : 1.44 123,630 Soybeans for Beans : 2.25 2.59 65,795,340 77,182,970 Sunflower : 1.36 1,208,930 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.82 0.85 3,974,600 4,549,350 Upland : 0.81 0.84 3,880,480 4,394,770 Amer-Pima : 1.31 1.51 94,120 154,580 Sugarbeets : 50.86 48.27 27,744,430 25,897,400 Sugarcane : 76.32 73.86 30,714,550 28,744,150 Tobacco : 2.19 2.39 364,080 400,330 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.25 7,890 Dry Edible Beans : 1.87 1.84 1,021,260 967,200 Dry Edible Peas : 1.77 235,960 Lentils : 1.15 110,770 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 30,530 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.58 3,760 Ginger Root (HI) : 42.03 44.83 2,720 2,720 Hops : 2.13 2.22 24,750 25,190 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,140 Potatoes, All 2/ : 41.10 20,766,100 Winter : 31.56 28.02 182,660 158,760 Spring : 32.33 29.82 1,108,260 865,320 Summer : 35.83 37.61 851,210 838,560 Fall : 42.19 18,623,960 Spearmint Oil : 0.13 810 Sweet Potatoes : 19.23 720,800 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,270 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 2,199,020 1,871,520 1,948,630 K-Early Citrus (FL) 3/ : 910 Lemons : 726,650 930,770 723,930 Oranges 4/ : 11,225,500 10,473,450 11,729,900 Tangelos (FL) : 88,000 96,160 40,820 Tangerines : 381,020 336,570 385,550 Temples (FL) : 63,500 53,520 57,150 : Noncitrus : Apples : 3,866,380 3,906,930 4,248,300 Apricots : 81,680 88,520 86,680 Bananas (HI) : 9,070 10,210 Grapes : 6,657,740 5,962,680 5,770,970 Olives (CA) : 93,440 107,050 77,110 Papayas (HI) : 20,820 19,320 Peaches : 1,149,860 1,142,600 1,178,610 Pears : 807,410 841,910 823,760 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 156,040 164,200 63,500 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,200 14,790 22,230 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 494,420 471,740 489,880 Hazelnuts : 17,690 34,200 39,920 Pecans : 78,430 127,960 Pistachios (CA) 5/ : 137,440 53,980 Walnuts (CA) : 255,830 295,740 294,840 Maple Syrup : 7,370 6,300 7,530 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Production years are 2001-02, 2002-03, and 2003-04. 3/ Estimates discontinued as of the 2002-03 crop. 4/ Orange production revised. Grapefruit and other citrus fruit revisions will be released on September 23, 2004 in "Citrus Fruits 2004 Summary". 5/ September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2004 Preliminary Summary" to be released in January 2005. Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 10 corn producing States during 2004. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in these tables are rounded actual field counts from this survey. Corn for Grain: Plant Population per Acre, Selected States, 2000-2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Sep : 25,800 26,750 26,400 27,150 27,750 : Oct : 25,800 26,700 26,350 27,050 : Nov : 25,800 26,650 26,350 27,050 : Final : 25,800 26,650 26,350 27,050 : : IN : Sep : 25,050 26,100 25,350 26,050 26,650 : Oct : 25,150 25,900 25,350 25,900 : Nov : 25,150 25,950 25,300 25,900 : Final : 25,150 25,950 25,300 25,900 : : IA : Sep : 26,500 26,500 26,850 27,400 28,000 : Oct : 26,200 26,550 26,700 27,250 : Nov : 26,300 26,450 26,700 27,250 : Final : 26,300 26,450 26,700 27,250 : : KS 1/ : Sep : 25,400 : Oct : : Nov : : Final : : : MN : Sep : 27,500 28,050 26,950 28,700 29,300 : Oct : 27,250 28,000 26,850 28,800 : Nov : 27,150 28,000 26,800 28,800 : Final : 27,150 28,000 26,800 28,800 : : MO 2/ : Sep : 24,350 : Oct : : Nov : : Final : : : NE : Sep : 23,700 22,750 23,250 23,800 24,100 All : Oct : 23,400 22,650 23,250 23,700 : Nov : 23,400 22,750 23,350 23,700 : Final : 23,450 22,750 23,350 23,700 : : NE : Sep : 27,300 26,250 26,400 26,900 26,900 Irrigated : Oct : 27,000 26,100 26,450 26,700 : Nov : 27,000 26,100 26,450 26,650 : Final : 27,050 26,050 26,450 26,650 : : NE : Sep : 18,500 18,550 19,450 19,800 19,700 Non-Irrigated: Oct : 18,200 18,450 19,450 19,800 : Nov : 18,200 18,700 19,650 19,800 : Final : 18,200 18,700 19,650 19,800 : : OH : Sep : 25,200 26,150 24,850 25,900 26,950 : Oct : 24,900 26,100 24,450 25,900 : Nov : 24,800 26,050 24,400 25,900 : Final : 24,900 26,050 24,400 25,900 : : SD 2/ : Sep : 21,800 : Oct : : Nov : : Final : : : WI : Sep : 26,550 26,800 26,550 27,300 27,700 : Oct : 26,150 26,950 26,400 27,000 : Nov : 26,200 27,000 26,650 27,100 : Final : 26,200 27,000 26,650 27,100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Field counts began in 2004. 2/ Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 1996. Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre, Selected States, 2000-2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Sep : 25,500 25,650 25,050 26,700 27,350 : Oct : 25,450 25,550 25,050 26,700 : Nov : 25,450 25,550 25,000 26,650 : Final : 25,450 25,550 25,000 26,650 : : IN : Sep : 24,500 25,500 23,900 25,350 26,200 : Oct : 24,550 25,350 23,650 25,400 : Nov : 24,650 25,400 23,650 25,350 : Final : 24,650 25,400 23,650 25,350 : : IA : Sep : 26,000 25,450 25,950 26,700 27,350 : Oct : 25,600 25,350 25,800 26,550 : Nov : 25,650 25,250 25,800 26,600 : Final : 25,650 25,250 25,800 26,600 : : KS 1/ : Sep : 25,350 : Oct : : Nov : : Final : : : MN : Sep : 27,350 27,500 26,550 28,300 29,000 : Oct : 27,350 26,750 26,150 28,650 : Nov : 27,250 26,700 26,100 28,600 : Final : 27,250 26,700 26,100 28,600 : : MO 2/ : Sep : 24,400 : Oct : : Nov : : Final : : : NE : Sep : 22,800 22,200 21,650 22,950 23,650 All : Oct : 22,750 21,950 21,250 22,650 : Nov : 22,700 22,050 21,200 22,600 : Final : 22,750 22,050 21,200 22,600 : : NE : Sep : 26,500 25,550 25,800 26,550 26,550 Irrigated : Oct : 26,350 25,350 25,700 26,350 : Nov : 26,350 25,350 25,650 26,300 : Final : 26,350 25,350 25,650 26,300 : : NE : Sep : 17,550 18,050 16,700 18,300 19,100 Non-Irrigated : Oct : 17,500 17,800 15,950 17,850 : Nov : 17,500 18,000 15,950 17,800 : Final : 17,500 18,000 15,950 17,800 : : OH : Sep : 24,450 25,550 23,700 25,500 25,950 : Oct : 24,250 25,250 22,400 25,700 : Nov : 23,950 25,150 22,350 25,750 : Final : 24,100 25,100 22,350 25,750 : : SD 2/ : Sep : 21,950 : Oct : : Nov : : Final : : : WI : Sep : 26,100 26,100 25,950 26,150 25,600 : Oct : 25,500 26,100 25,050 26,300 : Nov : 25,550 26,100 25,250 26,250 : Final : 25,550 26,100 25,250 26,250 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Field counts began in 2004. 2/ Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 1996. Soybeans: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 11 soybean producing States during 2004. Randomly selected plots in soybean fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet, Selected States, 2000-2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR 1/ 2/: Sep : : Oct : 2,678 2,260 : Nov : 1,859 1,867 : Final : 1,835 1,817 : : IL : Sep : 2,162 2,041 1,952 1,800 2,070 : Oct : 1,996 1,932 1,785 1,606 : Nov : 2,020 1,932 1,795 1,634 : Final : 2,021 1,932 1,802 1,634 : : IN : Sep : 1,917 2,003 1,773 1,786 1,909 : Oct : 1,786 1,882 1,677 1,692 : Nov : 1,784 1,880 1,680 1,582 : Final : 1,784 1,869 1,680 1,582 : : IA : Sep : 1,830 1,809 1,988 1,749 1,772 : Oct : 1,674 1,778 1,828 1,629 : Nov : 1,660 1,787 1,867 1,647 : Final : 1,660 1,796 1,867 1,647 : : KS 3/ : Sep : 1,482 : Oct : : Nov : : Final : : : MN : Sep : 1,607 1,492 1,688 1,582 1,487 : Oct : 1,509 1,433 1,785 1,417 : Nov : 1,507 1,475 1,739 1,440 : Final : 1,507 1,475 1,715 1,440 : : MO : Sep : 1,974 1,424 1,427 1,144 1,798 : Oct : 1,769 1,732 1,609 1,455 : Nov : 1,782 1,874 1,681 1,547 : Final : 1,793 1,921 1,705 1,523 : : NE : Sep : 1,795 1,961 1,548 1,727 1,835 : Oct : 1,617 1,932 1,517 1,642 : Nov : 1,619 2,003 1,587 1,636 : Final : 1,619 2,048 1,592 1,636 : : ND 3/ : Sep : 1,114 : Oct : : Nov : : Final : : : OH : Sep : 1,893 1,801 1,593 1,791 1,808 : Oct : 1,625 1,834 1,495 1,898 : Nov : 1,685 1,785 1,499 1,764 : Final : 1,697 1,785 1,492 1,752 : : SD 3/ : Sep : 1,248 : Oct : : Nov : : Final : ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ September data not available due to plant immaturity. 2/ Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 2002. 3/ Field counts began in 2004. Cotton: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in 7 cotton producing States during 2004. Randomly selected plots in cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, and Selected States, 2000-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep : 874 747 840 798 864 : Oct : 767 780 763 755 : Nov : 755 816 784 744 : Dec : 755 756 772 744 : Final : 755 756 772 744 : : CA : Sep : 760 939 945 973 954 : Oct : 790 902 1,041 945 : Nov : 801 921 1,009 893 : Dec : 800 918 1,011 893 : Final : 800 918 1,011 893 : : GA : Sep : 597 590 569 559 646 : Oct : 631 677 604 646 : Nov : 621 651 591 643 : Dec : 629 664 600 665 : Final : 629 664 608 664 : : LA : Sep : 722 625 663 681 635 : Oct : 692 592 756 778 : Nov : 674 582 749 775 : Dec : 674 588 742 775 : Final : 674 588 742 775 : : MS : Sep : 657 754 802 837 808 : Oct : 665 696 783 824 : Nov : 652 680 768 811 : Dec : 650 679 767 808 : Final : 650 679 767 808 : : NC : Sep : 670 719 636 628 758 : Oct : 724 722 629 630 : Nov : 743 696 560 632 : Dec : 747 705 567 632 : Final : 747 705 564 632 : : TX : Sep : 408 441 536 465 639 : Oct : 388 435 511 431 : Nov : 397 439 520 429 : Dec : 404 445 497 435 : Final : 448 445 497 433 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs per 40 feet or row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls. August Weather Summary Eight tropical cyclones reached tropical storm or hurricane intensity in the Atlantic Ocean basin, breaking the August record of seven established in 1933 and 1995. Five of those storms made landfall in the eastern United States, while a sixth (Hurricane Alex) grazed North Carolina's Outer Banks on August 3 with wind gusts as high as 100 m.p.h. Florida bore the brunt of the tropical activity, enduring landfalls from Tropical Storm Bonnie (near Apalachicola on August 12) and category four Hurricane Charley (near Ft. Myers with maximum sustained winds estimated near 145 m.p.h. on August 13). Primary agricultural concerns from the tropical activity in August included damage to Florida's citrus, greenhouse, and nursery industries, and adverse effects on open-boll cotton and other unharvested summer crops in the Southeast. Charley battered orange groves and agricultural infrastructure in a relatively narrow band across Florida from near Ft. Myers northeastward to Orlando and Daytona Beach. Meanwhile, below-normal August temperatures capped one of the coolest summers on record across the Great Plains, Midwest, and South. Midwestern monthly temperatures generally ranged from 4 to 8 degrees F below normal. Nevertheless, corn and soybean development remained ahead of schedule in much of the southern Corn Belt due to a record planting pace into early May. In the upper Midwest, however, cool weather aggravated summer crop developmental delays, especially for late-planted corn and soybeans sown following the mid-May arrival of heavy rain. On August 20-21, frost and a light freeze struck the upper Midwest, causing local damage to immature crops. Soil moisture reserves remained adequate to abundant for filling to maturing summer crops across the central and southern Plains and the Midwest. Locally excessive rain soaked parts of the southern and eastern Corn Belt in late August, but a late-month drying trend on the central and southern Plains promoted fieldwork, including summer crop harvesting and initial winter wheat planting. On the northern Plains, cool weather slowed the maturation of spring-sown small grains, while soil moisture shortages remained a concern for the upcoming winter wheat establishment period. In contrast, wet weather overspread the Northwest during August, slowing fieldwork but boosting soil moisture in preparation for winter wheat planting. The remainder of the West experienced near-normal temperatures and sporadic showers, resulting in little change in the overall drought picture. Parts of the Southwest and Intermountain West, set to enter a potential fifth year of drought, will need a bounteous winter wet season to prevent a worsening water-supply situation next year. August Crop Summary Below-normal temperatures prevailed across the Corn Belt and Great Plains, particularly in the northernmost areas of the regions where crop development was well behind the normal pace. Brief periods of freezing temperatures in the Dakotas and Minnesota did not significantly damage crops, but raised concerns about the crops' ability to mature before a killing frost occurs. Elsewhere in the Corn Belt, heavy rainfall benefitted crop conditions but caused some flooding, while periods of warmer weather allowed crops to progress at a near-normal pace. Along the Atlantic Coast, temperatures averaged below normal, while Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricanes Alex and Charley brought abundant rainfall to most coastal areas. In Florida, Charley's high winds caused considerable damage to the citrus crop, while rains were generally beneficial to cotton and peanut crops elsewhere in the Southeast. Moderate precipitation and below-normal temperatures prevailed across the Delta, delaying cotton development. Irrigation supplies in the Rocky Mountains were replenished by scattered monsoonal showers. In California and the Southwest, dry conditions prevailed with temperatures varying from below normal at the beginning and end of the month to above normal during the middle of the month. Warm weather in the Pacific Northwest was generally favorable for small grain development, but rains delayed harvest activities toward month's end. Corn silking had reached 96 percent complete by the middle of August, 1 percentage point behind last year and 2 points behind normal. Doughing began the month ahead of the 5-year average pace but fell behind normal during the month. As of August 29, seventy-nine percent of the crop had reached the dough stage, 7 points behind last year and 9 points behind normal. Denting followed a similar pattern, ending the month at 46 percent complete, 11 points behind the 5-year average. At month's end, 11 percent of the acreage had reached maturity, the same as last year but 2 points behind normal. Throughout the month, progress trailed well behind normal in the northern Great Plains and northern Corn Belt. On August 29, denting was over a week behind normal across these areas and trailed the normal pace by 2 weeks in Minnesota and 3 weeks in North Dakota. Doughing progress trailed the 5-year average by similar margins in these areas. By mid-month, growers had harvested 96 percent of their winter wheat acreage, 2 points behind last year but the same as the 5-year average. At that time, harvest was complete in all areas, except the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern Great Plains. Montana growers harvested 56 percent of their acreage during the first 2 weeks of the month, but remained 13 points behind normal. The cotton crop set bolls at a near-normal pace during the month, reaching 95 percent complete on August 22. At that time, boll setting was at or near completion in all areas, except the southern Great Plains. Bolls had begun opening in all States by mid-month, but trailed behind the normal pace in most areas. By month's end, one-fourth of the acreage had open bolls, 4 points ahead of last year but 7 points behind normal. In the Delta, where below-normal temperatures hindered crop development, bolls opening trailed the normal pace by over a week. In contrast, progress was 18 points ahead of normal in California and 38 points ahead in Virginia. Soybean blooming had reached 95 percent completion by mid-August, 1 point ahead of last year but 1 point behind normal. Blooming was at or near completion in most States, but trailed behind normal in the northern Corn Belt and Great Plains due to cool weather. Pod setting began the month ahead of normal, but by August 29 was even with the normal pace of 95 percent complete. On this same date, 6 percent of the crop was dropping leaves, the same as last year but 1 point behind the 5-year average. The crop was most advanced in the Delta, where 62 percent of Mississippi's crop, 41 percent of Louisiana's crop, and 21 percent of Arkansas's crop had dropped leaves, well ahead of the normal pace. Progress was also ahead of normal in Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri, but was at or behind the normal pace elsewhere. Progress of the sorghum crop remained behind normal throughout the month. At month's end, 88 percent of the crop was headed, 6 points ahead of last year but 3 points behind the 5-year average. Forty-six percent of the acreage had turned color and 24 percent of the crop was mature, 14 and 8 points behind normal, respectively. Kansas and Texas, together accounting for nearly three-fourths of the Nation's sorghum acreage, were over 1 week behind normal for both coloring and maturation due to below-normal temperatures in the Great Plains. Rice heading began the month ahead of the normal pace, but fell behind normal after midmonth as cool weather prevailed in the Delta and along the Gulf Coast. As of August 29, heading had reached 95 percent complete, 2 points behind last year and the 5-year average. Harvest progress trailed the average pace throughout the month, reaching 18 percent complete at month's end, 1 point behind last year and 2 points behind normal. Louisiana and Texas growers led the Nation with 75 and 71 percent of their acreage harvested, respectively. However, both States, along with Arkansas, were behind their 5-year average. On August 1, five percent of the spring wheat crop had been harvested, 6 points behind last year and 3 points behind normal. Progress fell further behind during the month, as cool weather prevailed across most growing areas. By month's end, growers had harvested just 50 percent of their acreage, compared with 90 percent last year and 75 percent for the average. Harvest progress was 30 points behind normal in North Dakota and nearly 50 points behind in Minnesota. Only Washington producers were ahead of their normal harvest pace. The barley harvest progressed similarly to spring wheat, falling further behind during the month. As of August 29, sixty-one percent of the acreage had been harvested, 29 points behind last year and 14 points behind normal. Growers in Washington had reaped 87 percent of their acreage and were 8 points ahead of normal, while progress trailed the 5-year average in all other States. Harvest progress was over 1 week behind normal in North Dakota and over 2 weeks behind in Minnesota. At midmonth, oat growers had harvested 58 percent of their crop, 15 points behind last year and the 5-year average. Progress had gained ground by month's end, reaching 85 percent complete by August 29, ten points behind last year and 8 points behind normal. At that time, harvest was complete in Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota and neared completion in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Minnesota and North Dakota growers were farthest behind, trailing their normal pace by 14 and 18 points, respectively. Corn for Grain: Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 73.4 million acres, unchanged from August but up 3 percent from 2003. The September 1 corn objective yield data indicate the highest stalk count on record for the combined ten objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin). In a program expansion, objective yield data are now being collected for Kansas, Missouri, and South Dakota. The September 1 objective yield forecasted ears per acre are also at a record high, 2.5 percent above the previous record high set last year. As of August 29, seventy percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, down 6 percentage points from last month but 24 points above a year ago. In the Corn Belt and Great Plains, below-normal temperatures prevailed, particularly in the northernmost areas where crop development was well behind the normal pace. Brief periods of freezing temperatures in the Dakotas and Minnesota raised concerns about the crop's ability to mature before a killing frost occurs. Along the Atlantic Coast, temperatures averaged below normal, while Tropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricanes Alex and Charley brought abundant rainfall to most coastal areas which has allowed for increased yield potential. Moderate precipitation and below-normal temperatures prevailed across the Delta while plentiful rainfall in the Rocky Mountains replenished irrigation supplies. Corn silking had reached 96 percent complete by the middle of August, 1 percentage point behind last year and 2 points behind normal. Doughing began the month ahead of the 5-year average pace but fell behind normal during the month. As of August 29, seventy-nine percent of the crop had reached the dough stage, 7 points behind last year and 9 points behind normal. Denting followed a similar pattern, ending the month at 46 percent complete, 11 points behind the 5-year average. At month's end, 11 percent of the acreage had reached maturity, the same as last year but 2 points behind normal. Throughout the month, progress trailed well behind normal in the northern Great Plains and northern Corn Belt. On August 29, denting was over a week behind normal across these areas, and trailed the normal pace by 2 weeks in Minnesota and 3 weeks in North Dakota. Sorghum: Production is forecast at 472 million bushels, up 2 percent from last month and up 15 percent from 2003. Based on September 1 conditions, the sorghum yield is forecast at 68.3 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels from August and 15.6 bushels from last year. The yield forecast for Kansas, at 75 bushels, is up 3 bushels from last month. Texas, the second leading producer, expects a yield of 61 bushels per acre, unchanged from August. Acreage expected to be harvested for grain in the U.S. is 6.92 million acres, unchanged from August but 11 percent lower than the 2003 harvested grain acreage. Across much of the Great Plains and western Corn Belt, development of the crop has been behind normal due to cool temperatures. On August 29, the crop had progressed to 24 percent mature, compared with 26 percent last year and 32 percent for the 5-year average. In Kansas, the crop was only 3 percent mature, compared with 6 percent a year ago and 13 percent for the 5-year average. The cool, damp weather has not severely impacted crop condition, as 65 percent was rated good to excellent, compared to 52 percent at this time last year. Rice: Production is forecast at 222 million cwt, up fractionally from August and up 11 percent from 2003. Rice planted area was revised up 18,000 acres from the June estimate to 3.36 million acres, and is 11 percent above 2003. Harvested area was revised up 16,000 acres from August to 3.33 million acres and is 11 percent above 2003. As of September 1, the U.S. all rice yield is forecast at a record high 6,651 pounds per acre. This yield is down 29 pounds from the August forecast but up 6 pounds from the record high yield established in 2003. As of August 29, rice harvest in Louisiana and Texas was 75 percent and 71 percent complete, respectively. Louisiana lagged the 5-year average by 1 percentage point, while Texas lagged by 11 points. Mississippi rice harvest, at 11 percent complete, exceeded the 5-year average by 2 points. Arkansas and California harvest, at 3 percent complete, and Missouri harvest, at 1 percent complete, were just getting under way. Soybeans: Area for harvest is forecast at 73.7 million acres, unchanged from August but up 2 percent from the 2003 acreage. The September objective yield pod counts are forecasted up 8 percent from last year. Higher pod counts are forecasted in all seven major soybean producing States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio). In fact, record pod counts are forecast for both Illinois and Ohio. As of August 29, ninety-five percent of the U.S. crop had set pods. This is 1 percentage point ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year average. Six percent of the acreage was dropping leaves, equal to 2003 but 1 point behind normal. As of August 29, sixty-four percent of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, 6 percentage points below the rating at the end of July and 19 points more than the same week in 2003. Crop conditions remained unusually high in August due to the below-normal temperatures across most the Great Plains and the Corn Belt. In the Delta, soybeans also benefitted from cool temperatures and moderate precipitation in August and are showing an increase in prospective yields. Record tying yields are forecast in Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and Arkansas is forecast one bushel higher than the 2003 record setting yield. The soybean crop in the northern Great Plains has suffered from the lack of warm temperatures and has lost yield potential. The September 1 yield forecast for North Dakota declined 5 bushels from August 1, while Minnesota is down 4 bushels. The concern of an early frost will linger throughout the remainder of the season. Peanuts: Production is forecast at 4.44 billion pounds, up 3 percent from last month and up 7 percent from 2003. Planted acres, at 1.43 million, are up 3 percent from the June estimate and up 6 percent from 2003. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.39 million acres, up 3 percent from August and up 6 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average a record high 3,188 pounds per acre, down 10 pounds from August but up 29 pounds from 2003. Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total 3.08 billion pounds, up 5 percent from August and up 11 percent from last year. Planted acres, at 1.00 million, are up 6 percent from the June estimate, and up 14 percent from 2003. Expected acreage for harvest, at 973,000, is up 6 percent from August and up 14 percent from 2003. Yields in the 4-state region are expected to average 3,165 pounds per acre, 18 pounds below August and 73 pounds below last year. As of August 29, peanuts in Alabama were rated 47 percent good to excellent. Florida peanuts were rated 79 percent good to excellent, and Georgia peanuts were rated 50 percent good to excellent. Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast 435 million pounds, down 1 percent from August but up 5 percent from 2003. Planted acres, at 138,000, are down 1 percent from the June estimate but up 2 percent from 2003. Area for harvest is expected to total 137,000 acres, down 1 percent from August but up 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3,177 pounds per acre, up 1 pound per acre from August and up 51 pounds per acre from last year. As of August 29, peanuts were rated 81 percent good to excellent in Virginia and 83 percent good to excellent in North Carolina. Southwest peanut production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 926 million pounds, down 3 percent from August and down 3 percent from 2003. Planted acres, at 291,000, are down 5 percent from the June estimate and down 12 percent from 2003. The region's area for harvest, at 283,000, acres is down 4 percent from August and down 12 percent from 2003. Yields are expected to average 3,272 pounds per acre across the region, up 17 pounds per acre from August and up 310 pounds per acre from 2003. As of August 29, Oklahoma peanuts were rated 78 percent good to excellent, while peanuts in Texas were rated 82 percent good to excellent. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.0 million acres, is down 1 percent from August, but 10 percent above 2003. Based on administrative information, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Missouri, and Tennessee have fewer harvested acres compared with a month ago. Arizona and New Mexico increased their harvested acreage from the previous month. American-Pima harvested area, at 253,000 acres, is up 3,000 acres from last month and up 43 percent from last year. During the month of August, three Hurricanes (Alex, Bonnie, and Charley) crossed over the eastern portion of the Southeast. No major damage was reported to the cotton crop. Growers have some concerns about the cool temperatures and showers slowing crop development and possibly adversely affecting quality. Compared to the previous month, Georgia good to excellent condition declined 16 percentage points. The cotton crop in the Delta States was over a week behind their 5-year average development at the end of the month. Mostly dry and warm conditions allowed growth and development to accelerate at the beginning of August. Cooler than normal air covered most of the Delta during mid-August. By the end of the month, warmer temperatures returned to most of the region. The duration of below normal temperatures raised concerns about the maturity of the crop, but the crop condition remained near last month. Dryland cotton in the High Plains of Texas received rainfall which was particularly beneficial to the late-planted acres. Producers were concerned that the cotton plants were not receiving enough heat units, because temperatures have been cooler than normal. Warmer temperatures returned, enhancing the condition of the crop. Harvest was virtually complete in southern Texas. Data from the objective yield samples show Texas boll counts are at a record high level. California upland cotton producers experienced hot, dry weather conditions. All of California's cotton was rated good to excellent at the end of August. Whitefly population was lighter than normal. Harvest was underway in the Desert Southwest. Objective yield survey data indicate California's boll counts are the highest of the previous ten years. American-Pima production is forecast at 710,000 bales, up 1 percent from August and up 64 percent from 2003. The increase from last month is due to added harvested acres in New Mexico. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,347 pounds per harvested acre, down 3 pounds from the August forecast. If realized, this would be 5 pounds above the record high yield established in 2002. Ginnings totaled 563,400 running bales prior to September 1, compared with 566,650 running bales ginned prior to the same date last year and 538,450 running bales in 2002. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 2004 is forecast at 883 million pounds, down less than 1 percent from the August forecast but up 10 percent from 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 413,550 acres, unchanged from August but 1 percent above 2003. Yields for 2004 are expected to average 2,134 pounds per acre, 6 pounds lower than last month but 182 pounds higher than a year ago. Compared to last month, lower yields in Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina more than offset higher yields in Indiana, Maryland, Ohio, and Tennessee. Yields in North Carolina, the leading tobacco producing State, are expected to average 2,215 pounds, unchanged from August but 337 pounds higher than last year. In Kentucky, the second leading State, growers expect to have yields averaging 2,048 pounds, also unchanged from last month but 32 pounds above last year. Flue-cured tobacco production is expected to total 512 million pounds, down 1 percent since last month but 12 percent higher than the 2003 crop. Growers plan to harvest 231,000 acres in 2004, down 1 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 2,215 pounds per acre, 23 pounds below the August forecast but up 258 pounds from the previous year. Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina have experienced heavy rains that reduced yield prospects. Burley production is expected to total 301 million pounds, up 1 percent since August 1 and 7 percent higher than last year. Yields are expected to average 1,929 pounds per acre, 21 pounds above last month and up 79 pounds from 2003. Burley growers plan to harvest 156,300 acres, up 3 percent from last year. Growers in Kentucky, the largest burley producing State, expect to produce 205 million pounds, unchanged from last month but 3 percent above last year. Blue mold and black shank are being reported in the State at varying degrees from field to field. Tennessee, the second largest burley producing State, encountered a dry spell allowing diseased crops to dry and conditions to improve. Fire-cured tobacco production is expected to total 36.6 million pounds, unchanged from the August forecast but up 6 percent from last year. Growers plan to harvest 11,720 acres, 4 percent above a year ago. The expected average yield is 3,120 pounds per acre, unchanged since last month but 53 pounds higher than the previous year. Southern Maryland Belt tobacco production is expected to total 6.38 million pounds, down 4 percent from the previous forecast but up 52 percent from 2003. Average yields, at 1,933 pounds per acre, are 84 pounds lower than the August forecast but 185 pounds more than last year. A total of 3,300 acres is expected to be harvested, up 38 percent from 2003. Dark air-cured production is expected to total 12.2 million pounds, up less than 1 percent from the August forecast and 8 percent above 2003. Growers plan to harvest 4,230 acres, 2 percent more than last year. Yields are expected to average 2,877 pounds per acre, up 12 pounds per acre from August and 151 pounds greater than last year. All Cigar production is expected to total 14.3 million pounds, unchanged from last month and up less than 1 percent from last year. Overall yield is expected to average 2,044 pounds per acre, unchanged from the August forecast but up 181 pounds from 2003. Growers of Cigar type tobacco plan to harvest 7,000 acres, 8 percent less than a year ago. Summer Potatoes: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 18.5 million cwt in 2004, down 1 percent from both the July 1 forecast and the 2003 final estimate. Harvested area is estimated at 55,100 acres, down 6 percent from last year. The average yield is forecast at 336 cwt per acre, 9 cwt above the July forecast and 16 cwt above last year. The decrease in acres more than offset the increase in yield. Yields are expected to be above last year in Colorado, Delaware, Kansas, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Texas. Wet conditions in Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia have caused potatoes to rot with growers abandoning some fields. Growers have also abandoned some acres in Missouri due to heavy rains and poor prices. Wet August weather in Delaware and Maryland set the potato harvest slightly behind schedule but the crop is in good condition. Colorado had scattered thunderstorms and some hail damage that have slowed harvest but the condition of the crop is good. Harvest is progressing in California's Central Valley. Condition of the crop is good and yields have been reported as normal. The quality of the crop in Texas is reported as good and harvest is almost complete. Fall Potatoes, 2003 Final: Production of 2003 fall potatoes is finalized at 411 million cwt, down 1 percent from 2002 but 4 percent above the 2001 crop. Area harvested, at 1.09 million acres, is 1 percent below the previous year but 2 percent above two years ago. The average yield was 376 cwt per acre, up 2 cwt from 2002 and 9 cwt above 2001. When compared with the annual estimates made last January, fall production was revised down less than 1 percent. Smaller crops in Massachusetts, Nebraska, Ohio, and Pennsylvania more than offset larger crops in California and Rhode Island. All Potatoes, 2003: Final production of potatoes from all four seasons in 2003 totaled 458 million cwt, virtually unchanged from a year earlier but 5 percent above 2001. Area harvested is estimated at 1.25 million acres, down 1 percent from 2002 but 2 percent above 2001. The yield, averaging 367 cwt per acre, increased 5 cwt from a year earlier and is 9 cwt more than 2001. Winter production in 2003 dropped 4 percent from 2002. Spring and summer production rose 9 percent and 5 percent, respectively, from a year earlier. Fall potatoes decreased 1 percent in 2003 from the previous year. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2004 is forecast at 31.7 million tons, 2 percent below the August forecast and 6 percent below 2003. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 961,600 acres for sugar and seed during the 2004 crop year, down 1 percent from August and 3 percent less than last year's final harvested area. Yield is forecast at 33.0 tons per acre, 0.4 ton below the previous forecast and 1.0 ton below the 2003 yield. In Louisiana, the harvested area forecast declined 10,000 acres from August. Louisiana's yield forecast also dropped by 1.0 ton, due to dry conditions in August. Hurricane Charley missed Florida's sugarcane-growing area, and acreage and yield forecasts are unchanged. Sugarbeets: Production for 2004 is forecast at 28.5 million tons, 1 percent above the August forecast but 7 percent below last year's production. Growers in the 12 sugarbeet-producing States expect to harvest 1.33 million acres, down fractionally from last month and 2 percent below last year. The yield is forecast at 21.5 tons per acre, up 0.1 ton from August but 1.2 tons below 2003. Yield expectations improved in Idaho, Michigan, Oregon, and Wyoming; declined in Colorado and Nebraska; and were unchanged in all other States. August brought cooler than normal temperatures and adequate moisture to most of the major growing area. Frost in Minnesota and North Dakota August 19-21 did not significantly harm the crop. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.68 million pounds for August, down 5 percent from last month and 17 percent lower than a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,185 acres, up 10 percent from last month but 8 percent less than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,385 acres, up 31 percent from last month but 12 percent below August 2003. Wet weather in March adversely affected bloom, resulting in reduced production in August. Weather over the major producing areas was variable during August with some rainfall and warm temperatures providing good growing conditions. Florida Citrus: The month of August was marked by hot temperatures and high humidity, which were increased by the passage of Hurricane Charley on August 13th through the center of a major citrus area. Although rainfall was adequate during the month, hot temperatures caused surface soil drying in many areas. Rainfall was heaviest early in the month in all citrus growing areas and lighter following the hurricane. Charley's rainfall accumulations were variable but not heavy as the storm moved very quickly through Florida. Hurricane Charley entered the State in Charlotte County and moved northeast through DeSoto, Hardee, and Polk, three of the major orange producing counties in the State. As the storm moved ashore, it was compact with high winds around the eye in a very tight pattern. Areas out from the eye up to 20 miles received varying amounts of damage and fruit loss. Tornados spawned by the storm were numerous and uprooted trees in some groves. The storm moved through Orange and Seminole counties and exited the State near Daytona Beach. Following the storm, varying amounts of fruit were observed on the ground with tree limb breakage prevalent. Some trees were blown over. Groves hard hit from Hurricane Charley continue to drop fruit as growers assess damage and move downed trees to provide access to groves. The Florida NASS office was in the process of completing the annual Limb Count Survey when Hurricane Charley hit. A protion of the samples located in the affected counties will be revisited before the October Crop Production report in order to factor the tree and fruit loss into the first Florida citrus production forecast for the 2004-05 season. Citrus crops in other areas not affected by Hurricane Charley were making good progress with no major problems reported. Trees in those areas were in excellent condition. Growers reported fruit sizes of Hamlins and grapefruit to be smaller than normal. Fresh fruit crops were being sprayed regularly to hold down insect populations, with some crops on the East Coast receiving weekly treatments. Growers and caretakers were conducting routine summer cultural practices including weed control and dead tree removal and replacement. In the flat woods and coastal areas, they were also maintaining ditches and canals to move excess water out of the groves and away from tree roots. On September 5, powerful Hurricane Frances hit Florida's East Coast. It made landfall near Stuart and moved slowly northwest through St. Lucie, Okeechobee, Osceola, Polk, and Lake counties, and exited the State north of Tampa. This was a very large storm with high winds and large amounts of rain. The East Coast is the major grapefruit growing area and sustained winds did considerable damage to fruit and trees. St. Lucie, Martin, Indian River, and Palm Beach counties, all citrus producing counties, were hit hardest. These counties account for almost 200,000 acres of Florida citrus with nearly 80,000 acres of grapefruit (the equivalent of 73 percent of Florida's grapefruit bearing acres) and approximately 112,000 acres of orange production (the equivalent of 17 percent of Florida's orange bearing acres). St. Lucie and Indian River grow the bulk of the total. Reports are very preliminary but indicate more fruit loss on grapefruit than oranges with limited tree mortality. Heavy rainfall left high water in many groves and ditches, making the task of moving this water away from the tree roots a high priority. Nearly all of the Annual Limb Count Survey samples had been worked on Florida's East Coast area. Currently, plans are in place to revisit a portion of these samples prior to the October Crop Production report. California Citrus: Valencia oranges continued to be picked but harvesting activity was slowing. Fruit quality began showing a normal season decline, including rind puff and regreening. The new Navel orange crop progressed normally. Lemon and grapefruit harvest continued. Citrus groves were irrigated due to the intense summer heat and dry conditions. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Fruit growers conducted cultural activities that included weed control, fungicide applications, and irrigation of trees and vines. Stone fruit harvest remained active throughout the month. O'Henry, Arctic Snow, and Snow Giant peaches; Howard Sun and Emerald Beaut plums; August Red and August Glo nectarines; and Flavor Grenade and Yummy Giant pluots were harvested. Granny Smith and Gala apples, Asian pears, Early Foothill pomegranates, Pineapple quince, and figs were also picked, packed, and shipped. Prune harvest in the northern areas was progressing quickly, with a very light crop reported. Persimmons were steadily gaining size with irrigation underway as needed but external coloring slowed because of warm temperatures. Raisin grape harvesting began in the San Joaquin Valley during the first week in August and continued throughout the month. Approximately 20 percent of the crop was harvested by the end of August. Fruit in dried-on-the-vine vineyards was drying evenly but no harvesting was reported. Wine grape harvesting continued throughout the month. Picking and packing of grapes for fresh market continued in the San Joaquin Valley. Thompson Seedless and Flame Seedless were among the grape varieties harvested. Olives continued to size normally, while olive growers applied treatment for fruit fly. The kiwifruit crop was reported to be generally normal but with small sizes. Strawberries were harvested in the central coast. Almond harvest was active throughout the month. Trees were shaken and nuts were raked into windrows, picked up, and hauled to processors. Steady crop maturity continued in pistachio, walnut, and pecan orchards. Irrigation was underway in several areas. Walnut orchards were treated for husk fly and codling moth. Hazelnuts: Production in Oregon is forecast at 44,000 tons, up 16 percent from last year's revised production of 37,900 tons and more than double the 2002 crop of 19,500 tons. If realized, the 2004 hazelnut crop would deviate from the alternate bearing cycle which has been typical of the Oregon crop for the past decade. Last year was considered an "up" year based on this historical production pattern. Excellent growing conditions began last summer and continued through last fall, allowing trees to put on good growth. Also, excellent early season bloom and pollinating conditions helped achieve a very high nut set. These factors, combined with a very light nut drop this summer, have all contributed to this crop deviating from the normal pattern. This year's forecasted production would be the third highest hazelnut crop on record, behind the 2001 crop of 49,500 tons and the 1997 crop of 46,650 tons. The results of the Oregon hazelnut objective yield survey show the number of nuts picked per tree at 298 this year. This compares with 261 nuts last year and 222 nuts in 2002. The percentage of good nuts is 85.1 percent, down from 88.0 percent last year but up from 84.4 percent in 2002. The average dry weight of the good nuts is 3.28 grams, 0.39 gram heavier than last year but 0.03 gram lighter than 2002. Brown stained nuts amount to just 0.10 percent of all good nuts sampled this year, a historic low, surpassing last year's record low of 0.12 percent. Walnuts: California production is forecast at 325,000 tons, virtually unchanged from last year's record high production of 326,000 tons. Excellent growing conditions, combined with a 2 percent increase in bearing acres, to 217,000, have contributed to a deviation from the traditional large yearly swings in production for this alternate bearing crop. The September forecast is based on the walnut objective measurement survey conducted July 26 through August 24, 2004. Survey data indicate average nuts set per tree at 1,526, down 5 percent from last year's average of 1,599 nuts. Compared to last year, nuts set for the Hartley and Franquette varieties are up 18 percent and 76 percent, respectively, while nuts set for Chandler and Serr varieties are down 13 percent and 30 percent, respectively. Percent of sound kernels in-shell is a record high 98.2 percent Statewide, compared to 97.0 percent last year. In-shell weight per nut is 22.5 grams, while the average in-shell suture measurement is 32.6 millimeters. The average length in-shell is 39.0 millimeters. These compare to last year's measurements of 22.4 grams in-shell weight per nut, 32.5 millimeters average in-shell suture measurement, and 39.1 millimeters average length in-shell. Pistachios: The California pistachio forecast normally released in the September Crop Production report will not be issued this year. The indications used for setting the September pistachio forecast have been produced by the objective measurement survey, funded by the pistachio industry. Earlier this year, NASS and industry representatives agreed to not issue a 2004 forecast and to conduct additional research to improve the objective measurement model. A decision will be made at a later date if and when in-season production forecasts will resume. The 2004 California pistachio production estimate will be released in the Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts - Preliminary 2004 Summary on January 25, 2005. Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecast Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between August 25 and September 7 to gather information on expected yield as of September 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected fields for the objective yield survey (corn, cotton, and soybeans). The counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, number of plants are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears, bolls, or pods and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 16,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields. Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published September 1 forecasts. Revision Policy: The September 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. Estimates of planted acres for spring planted crops are subject to revision in the August Crop Production report if conditions altered the planting intentions since the mid-year survey. Planted acres may also be revised for cotton, peanuts, and rice in September Crop Production report each year; spring wheat, Durum wheat, barley, and oats only in the Small Grains Annual report at the end of September; and all other spring planted crops in the October Crop Production report. Revisions to planted acres will only be made when either special survey data or administrative data are available. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last forecast. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the September 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the September 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the September 1 corn for grain production forecast is 5.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 9.0 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the September 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the September 1 forecast and the final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 300 million bushels, ranging from 10 million bushels to 891 million bushels. The September 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 13 times and above 7 times. This does not imply that the September 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of September 1 Crop Production Forecasts -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Root Mean : 20-Year Record of : : Square Error : Differences Between Forecast : :------------------: and Final Estimate : : : :------------------------------------ Crop :Unit : : 90 : Quantity : Years : :Percent: Percent :------------------------------------ : : :Confidence: : : :Below:Above : : : Interval :Average:Smallest:Largest:Final:Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ Million ------ Number : : Corn For Grain :Bu : 5.2 9.0 300 10 891 13 7 Sorghum for Grain :Bu : 7.7 13.4 34 1 115 10 10 Rice :Cwt : 3.9 6.8 5 0 16 5 15 Soybeans for Beans:Bu : 5.2 9.0 103 19 225 10 10 Cotton 1/ :Bales: 6.2 10.7 803 5 2,366 10 10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Quantity is in thousands of bales. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Dennis Koong - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas(202) 720-3250 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Rich Holcomb - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be included in the meeting. For registration details or additional information for the Data Users' Meeting, see the NASS homepage at www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact Karlyn McCutcheon (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at karlyn_mccutcheon@nass.usda.gov. This Data Users' Meeting precedes an Industry Outlook meeting that will be held at the same location on October 19, 2004. The Outlook meeting brings together analysts from various commodity sectors to discuss the outlook situation. For more information about the outlook meeting and to register contact Jim Robb (Livestock and Marketing Information Center) at (720) 544-2941 or at robb@lmic.info.