Cr Pr 2-2 (10-04) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 12, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Orange Production Down 20 Percent from Last Season Corn Production Up 6 Percent from September Forecast Soybean Production Up 10 Percent Cotton Production Up 3 Percent Corn production is forecast at 11.6 billion bushels, up 6 percent from last month and 15 percent above 2003. Based on conditions as of October 1, the yield is expected to average 158.4 bushels per acre, up 9.0 bushels from September and 16.2 bushels above last year. If realized, both production and yield would be the largest on record. The previous record for both was set last year when production was estimated at 10.1 billion bushels and yield was 142.2 bushels per acre. Yields are forecast at record high levels in all Corn Belt States, except Minnesota and Wisconsin, as weather conditions have been mostly favorable throughout the growing season. Based on administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States and farmers now expect to harvest 73.3 million acres of corn for grain, down 66,000 acres from September but up 3 percent from 2003. Soybean production is forecast at 3.11 billion bushels, up 10 percent from the September forecast and 27 percent above 2003. If realized, this would be the largest U.S. soybean crop on record. Based on conditions as of October 1, yield is expected to average a record high 42.0 bushels per acre, up 3.5 bushels from September. Below-normal temperatures and adequate moisture during August and early September across most of the Corn Belt, Great Plains, and Delta were beneficial to the crop during the final stages of development. Above-normal temperatures followed, during the rest of September, just in time for the beginning of the harvest season. Based on administrative data, acreage updates were made in several States. Area planted is now estimated at 75.1 million acres, up 256,000 acres from the August estimate. Area for harvest is forecast at 74.0 million acres, up 335,000 from September. Revised 2003 soybean acreage, yield, and production were published in the September 30, 2004 Grain Stocks report. All cotton production is forecast at 21.5 million 480-pound bales, up 3 percent from last month and 18 percent above last year's 18.3 million bales. Yield is expected to average 782 pounds per acre, up 24 pounds from last month and 52 pounds from 2003. If realized, both production and yield would be the largest on record. Thirteen of the 15 published States are expecting production to remain the same or increase from a month ago. Harvested area, at 13.2 million acres, is the same as September but up 10 percent from 2003. The U.S. all orange initial forecast for the 2004-05 season is 10.3 million tons, down 20 percent from last season's utilization. This forecast is as of October 1, and takes into account fruit loss caused by the four hurricanes that affected citrus producing areas in Florida during the months of August and September. Florida's all orange forecast is 176 million boxes (7.92 million tons), 27 percent less than last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 92.0 million boxes (4.14 million tons), 27 percent below last season's final utilization. The Valencia oranges are forecast at 84.0 million boxes (3.78 million tons), 28 percent below last season's final utilization. California's all orange production for the 2004-05 season is forecast at 62.0 million boxes, (2.33 million tons), 19 percent more than the previous season. The Navel orange forecast is carried forward from September at 46.0 million boxes (1.73 million tons) and is 21 percent higher than the 2003-04 season. Fruit size is smaller than last season for the 2004-05 Navel crop. Although the fruit matured quickly as a result of higher than average temperatures during summer, fruit growth slowed and the average September size increase was about 10 percent less than last season. Growers expect fruit sizing will accelerate given sufficient October rainfall. The fruit quality is poorer than last season. Consequently, it is expected that a relatively high percentage will be diverted to processing. The initial California Valencia forecast for the 2004-05 crop is 16.0 million boxes (600,000 tons), 14 percent above last season's utilization. California's Valencia crop is developing normally with a significantly heavier fruit set than the 2003-04 season. The Texas initial forecast for the 2004-05 all orange crop is 1.90 million boxes (81,000 tons), up 16 percent from last season's final utilization. Arizona's 2004-05 all orange crop is 440,000 boxes, down 6 percent from the 2003-04 final utilization. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2004-05 season is forecast at 1.56 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is the same as the 2003-04 season's yield of 1.56 gallons per box as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. Projected yield for the 2004-05 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production Report. This report was approved on October 12, 2004. Acting Secretary of Agriculture James R. Moseley Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Selected Crops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Grains & Hay Corn for Grain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Ears Per Acre. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Hay, Alfalfa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Hay, Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Rice. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Rice, by Class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Sorghum for Grain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Oilseeds Canola. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Peanuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Soybeans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet . . . . . . . . . 32 Sunflower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Cumulative Bolls Counts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Cottonseed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Sugarbeets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Tobacco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Dry Edibles Beans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Apples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Grapes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Pecans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Citrus Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Tangerines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Temples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops Potatoes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Florida Citrus Forecast Procedures . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . . . . . . 46 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Corn : Sorghum : Soybeans State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- :Planted 1/: Harvested :Planted 1/: Harvested :Planted 1/: Harvested ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : AL : 240 210 10 7 210 195 AZ : 55 27 13 4 AR : 320 300 62 58 3,200 3,150 CA : 580 190 23 12 CO : 1,200 1,000 280 200 CT : 31 DE : 160 155 1 1 210 207 FL : 70 35 18 16 GA : 330 280 45 25 280 260 ID : 215 70 IL : 11,700 11,550 100 95 9,900 9,850 IN : 5,700 5,500 5,500 5,430 IA : 12,700 12,300 10,200 10,150 KS : 3,100 2,750 3,200 2,900 2,800 2,700 KY : 1,210 1,110 17 15 1,310 1,290 LA : 420 405 85 80 1,100 1,070 ME : 28 MD : 490 420 5 3 500 490 MA : 19 MI : 2,200 1,950 2,000 1,990 MN : 7,500 6,900 7,300 7,200 MS : 460 440 25 24 1,670 1,630 MO : 2,950 2,850 150 145 5,000 4,940 MT : 70 19 NE : 8,300 7,900 550 420 4,800 4,750 NV : 4 NH : 15 NJ : 88 72 103 101 NM : 130 49 130 90 NY : 980 450 175 173 NC : 830 760 15 11 1,520 1,470 ND : 1,800 1,500 3,750 3,670 OH : 3,350 3,100 4,450 4,420 OK : 250 205 270 230 320 290 OR : 55 28 PA : 1,400 900 15 5 400 395 RI : 2 SC : 310 285 7 5 540 520 SD : 4,650 4,100 250 160 4,150 4,090 TN : 680 610 20 17 1,210 1,180 TX : 1,800 1,600 2,250 2,050 290 275 UT : 53 13 VT : 90 VA : 480 340 5 2 540 520 WA : 160 100 WV : 48 28 19 18 WI : 3,650 2,750 1,600 1,550 WY : 95 60 : US : 80,968 73,311 7,528 6,559 75,065 73,990 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from the June 2004 "Acreage" report. Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Canola : Sunflower : : :----------------------------------------------------- : : : Oil : Non Oil : All :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CO : 90 80 45 43 135 123 KS : 150 140 20 18 170 158 MN : 35 32 30 28 30 28 60 56 NE : 36 33 21 19 57 52 ND : 780 750 720 700 160 155 880 855 SD : 400 390 25 24 425 414 TX : 18 17 27 26 45 43 : Oth : Sts 2/: 53 50 76 68 16 11 92 79 : US : 868 832 1,520 1,456 344 324 1,864 1,780 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from the June 2004 "Acreage" report. 2/ Other States for canola include AL, AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, KS, MI, MT, NY, OR, PA, SC, SD, and WA. Other States for Sunflower include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY. Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2004 : : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 :------------------: 2003 : 2004 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels ------- --- 1,000 Bushels --- : AL : 190 210 122.0 120.0 120.0 23,180 25,200 AR : 350 300 140.0 140.0 140.0 49,000 42,000 CA : 170 190 160.0 160.0 165.0 27,200 31,350 CO : 890 1,000 135.0 132.0 132.0 120,150 132,000 DE : 162 155 123.0 128.0 144.0 19,926 22,320 GA : 285 280 129.0 130.0 130.0 36,765 36,400 IL : 11,050 11,550 164.0 170.0 180.0 1,812,200 2,079,000 IN : 5,390 5,500 146.0 157.0 167.0 786,940 918,500 IA : 12,000 12,300 157.0 163.0 180.0 1,884,000 2,214,000 KS : 2,500 2,750 120.0 145.0 148.0 300,000 407,000 KY : 1,080 1,110 137.0 142.0 150.0 147,960 166,500 LA : 500 405 134.0 135.0 135.0 67,000 54,675 MD : 410 420 123.0 143.0 152.0 50,430 63,840 MI : 2,090 1,950 126.0 122.0 127.0 263,340 247,650 MN : 6,650 6,900 146.0 147.0 155.0 970,900 1,069,500 MS : 530 440 135.0 136.0 136.0 71,550 59,840 MO : 2,800 2,850 108.0 144.0 156.0 302,400 444,600 NE : 7,700 7,900 146.0 157.0 168.0 1,124,200 1,327,200 NJ : 61 72 113.0 120.0 128.0 6,893 9,216 NM : 48 49 180.0 180.0 180.0 8,640 8,820 NY : 440 450 121.0 116.0 121.0 53,240 54,450 NC : 680 760 106.0 115.0 115.0 72,080 87,400 ND : 1,170 1,500 112.0 105.0 110.0 131,040 165,000 OH : 3,070 3,100 156.0 156.0 160.0 478,920 496,000 OK : 190 205 125.0 150.0 140.0 23,750 28,700 PA : 890 900 115.0 129.0 134.0 102,350 120,600 SC : 215 285 105.0 95.0 97.0 22,575 27,645 SD : 3,850 4,100 111.0 118.0 120.0 427,350 492,000 TN : 630 610 131.0 140.0 140.0 82,530 85,400 TX : 1,650 1,600 118.0 130.0 133.0 194,700 212,800 VA : 330 340 115.0 143.0 145.0 37,950 49,300 WA : 70 100 195.0 195.0 200.0 13,650 20,000 WI : 2,850 2,750 129.0 127.0 136.0 367,650 374,000 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 248 280 134.8 140.3 144.0 33,428 40,320 : US : 71,139 73,311 142.2 149.4 158.4 10,113,887 11,613,226 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, FL, ID, MT, OR, UT, WV, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary". Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2004 : : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 :-----------------: 2003 : 2004 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ------- Bushels ------ 1,000 Bushels : AR : 210 58 82.0 80.0 84.0 17,220 4,872 CO : 160 200 27.0 38.0 35.0 4,320 7,000 IL : 105 95 82.0 98.0 107.0 8,610 10,165 KS : 2,900 2,900 45.0 75.0 75.0 130,500 217,500 LA : 165 80 85.0 65.0 70.0 14,025 5,600 MO : 210 145 77.0 100.0 103.0 16,170 14,935 NE : 500 420 62.0 85.0 82.0 31,000 34,440 NM : 62 90 27.0 35.0 50.0 1,674 4,500 OK : 250 230 37.0 50.0 53.0 9,250 12,190 SD : 150 160 45.0 46.0 46.0 6,750 7,360 TX : 2,850 2,050 54.0 61.0 65.0 153,900 133,250 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 236 131 75.5 74.5 76.7 17,818 10,045 : US : 7,798 6,559 52.7 68.3 70.4 411,237 461,857 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AL, AZ, CA, DE, GA, KY, MD, MS, NC, PA, SC, TN, and VA. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary". Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 2004 : : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 :-------------------: 2003 : 2004 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Pounds -------- ---- 1,000 Cwt --- : AR : 1,455 1,560 6,590 6,650 6,800 95,860 106,080 CA : 507 600 7,620 7,900 8,100 38,624 48,600 LA : 450 530 5,870 5,300 5,300 26,397 28,090 MS : 234 233 6,800 6,900 6,900 15,912 16,077 MO : 171 194 6,130 6,350 6,350 10,484 12,319 TX : 180 217 6,600 6,500 6,600 11,880 14,322 : US : 2,997 3,334 6,645 6,651 6,763 199,157 225,488 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Sweet rice acreage and production included in 2003 and 2004 but not previous years. Rice: Production by Class, United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain 1/ : All : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 2002 : 157,243 52,201 1,516 210,960 2003 : 149,011 47,440 2,706 199,157 2004 2/ : 165,287 56,843 3,358 225,488 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Sweet rice production included with short grain in 2003 and 2004 but not in previous years. 2/ The 2004 rice production by class estimates are based on class harvested acreage estimates and the 5-year average class yield compared to the all rice yield. Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2004 : : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 :-------------------: 2003 : 2004 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 160 195 36.0 35.0 37.0 5,760 7,215 AR : 2,890 3,150 38.5 39.0 40.0 111,265 126,000 DE : 178 207 36.0 41.0 42.0 6,408 8,694 GA : 180 260 33.0 30.0 30.0 5,940 7,800 IL : 10,260 9,850 37.0 44.0 49.0 379,620 482,650 IN : 5,370 5,430 38.0 45.0 51.0 204,060 276,930 IA : 10,550 10,150 32.5 40.0 47.0 342,875 477,050 KS : 2,480 2,700 23.0 37.0 41.0 57,040 110,700 KY : 1,240 1,290 43.5 41.0 42.0 53,940 54,180 LA : 740 1,070 34.0 31.0 31.0 25,160 33,170 MD : 430 490 37.0 38.0 41.0 15,910 20,090 MI : 1,990 1,990 27.5 31.0 35.0 54,725 69,650 MN : 7,450 7,200 32.0 36.0 36.0 238,400 259,200 MS : 1,430 1,630 39.0 37.0 39.0 55,770 63,570 MO : 4,950 4,940 29.5 38.0 44.0 146,025 217,360 NE : 4,500 4,750 40.5 45.0 47.0 182,250 223,250 NJ : 88 101 34.0 40.0 42.0 2,992 4,242 NY : 138 173 35.0 33.0 36.0 4,830 6,228 NC : 1,400 1,470 30.0 32.0 32.0 42,000 47,040 ND : 3,050 3,670 29.0 26.0 27.0 88,450 99,090 OH : 4,280 4,420 38.5 40.0 46.0 164,780 203,320 OK : 245 290 26.0 32.0 30.0 6,370 8,700 PA : 375 395 41.0 43.0 45.0 15,375 17,775 SC : 420 520 28.0 26.0 26.0 11,760 13,520 SD : 4,200 4,090 27.5 33.0 34.0 115,500 139,060 TN : 1,120 1,180 42.0 39.0 40.0 47,040 47,200 TX : 185 275 29.0 31.0 31.0 5,365 8,525 VA : 480 520 34.0 36.0 37.0 16,320 19,240 WI : 1,670 1,550 28.0 33.0 35.0 46,760 54,250 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 27 34 36.1 38.7 34.2 975 1,162 : US : 72,476 73,990 33.9 38.5 42.0 2,453,665 3,106,861 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include FL and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary". Sunflower: Area Planted by Varietal Type, State and United States, 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Varietal Type State :----------------------------------------------------------- : Oil : Non-Oil : All -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CO : 95 35 130 KS : 170 23 193 MN : 55 35 90 NE : 51 15 66 ND : 1,060 150 1,210 SD : 475 30 505 TX : 17 42 59 : Oth Sts 2/ : 75 16 91 : US : 1,998 346 2,344 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. 2/ Other States include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY. Sunflower: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2002-2003 1/ and Forecasted October 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Varietal : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Type & :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 2/ : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : Oil : CO : 85 80 1,000 34,020 85,000 KS : 155 140 1,160 139,500 179,800 MN : 54 28 1,650 51,800 89,100 NE : 48 33 900 18,000 43,200 ND : 1,020 700 1,300 1,447,550 1,326,000 SD : 430 390 1,000 318,750 430,000 TX : 16 17 1,400 9,000 22,400 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 66 68 1,275 47,279 84,166 : US : 1,874 1,456 1,206 2,065,899 2,259,666 : Non-Oil : CO : 33 43 1,010 15,840 33,330 KS : 21 18 1,200 12,610 25,200 MN : 34 28 1,550 31,050 52,700 NE : 14 19 1,050 7,700 14,700 ND : 145 155 1,330 252,000 192,850 SD : 25 24 1,100 41,250 27,500 TX : 40 26 1,200 16,000 48,000 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 11 11 1,025 8,898 11,280 : US : 323 324 1,256 385,348 405,560 : All : CO : 118 123 1,003 1,040 49,860 118,330 127,920 KS : 176 158 1,165 1,530 152,110 205,000 241,740 MN : 88 56 1,611 1,350 82,850 141,800 75,600 NE : 62 52 934 1,070 25,700 57,900 55,640 ND : 1,165 855 1,304 1,300 1,699,550 1,518,850 1,111,500 SD : 455 414 1,005 1,500 360,000 457,500 621,000 TX : 56 43 1,257 1,500 25,000 70,400 64,500 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 77 79 1,240 1,232 56,177 95,446 97,299 : US : 2,197 1,780 1,213 1,346 2,451,247 2,665,226 2,395,199 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 Revised. 2/ 2004 yield and production estimates for oil and non-oil varieties will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary". 3/ Other States include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY. Peanuts: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield and Production by State and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2004 : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2004 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Acres : AL : 185.0 190.0 200.0 180.0 185.0 195.0 FL : 96.0 125.0 145.0 86.0 115.0 130.0 GA : 510.0 545.0 620.0 505.0 540.0 610.0 NM : 18.0 18.0 17.0 18.0 17.0 16.0 NC : 101.0 101.0 105.0 100.0 100.0 105.0 OK : 60.0 37.0 34.0 57.0 35.0 32.0 SC : 10.0 19.0 35.0 8.7 17.0 33.0 TX : 315.0 275.0 240.0 280.0 270.0 235.0 VA : 58.0 34.0 33.0 57.0 33.0 32.0 : US : 1,353.0 1,344.0 1,429.0 1,291.7 1,312.0 1,388.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2004 : : : : 2002 : 2003 1/ :-------------------: 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2004 : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- Pounds ------------- -------- 1,000 Pounds -------- : AL : 2,110 2,750 2,800 2,700 379,800 508,750 526,500 FL : 2,300 3,000 3,100 2,300 197,800 345,000 299,000 GA : 2,600 3,450 3,300 3,000 1,313,000 1,863,000 1,830,000 NM : 3,000 2,700 3,000 3,000 54,000 45,900 48,000 NC : 2,100 3,200 3,200 3,200 210,000 320,000 336,000 OK : 2,800 2,800 3,200 3,300 159,600 98,000 105,600 SC : 2,200 3,400 3,100 3,200 19,140 57,800 105,600 TX : 3,100 3,000 3,300 3,300 868,000 810,000 775,500 VA : 2,100 2,900 3,100 3,100 119,700 95,700 99,200 : US : 2,571 3,159 3,188 2,972 3,321,040 4,144,150 4,125,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Canola: Area Harvested, Yield and Production by State and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : MN : 56 32 1,820 1,350 44,500 101,920 43,200 ND : 960 750 1,410 1,530 1,403,600 1,353,600 1,147,500 : Oth Sts 1/ : 52 50 1,091 1,422 85,320 56,730 71,120 : US : 1,068 832 1,416 1,517 1,533,420 1,512,250 1,261,820 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, KS, MI, MT, NY, OR, PA, SC, SD, and WA. Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 2004 : : State : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 :-------------------: 2003 : 2004 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 510.0 535.0 772 749 673 820.0 750.0 AZ : 213.0 236.0 1,239 1,322 1,322 550.0 650.0 AR : 945.0 920.0 916 903 976 1,804.0 1,870.0 CA : 545.0 557.0 1,317 1,465 1,508 1,495.0 1,750.0 GA : 1,290.0 1,260.0 785 762 667 2,110.0 1,750.0 LA : 510.0 490.0 967 637 764 1,027.0 780.0 MS : 1,090.0 1,090.0 934 800 925 2,120.0 2,100.0 MO : 390.0 385.0 862 823 860 700.0 690.0 NM : 38.0 64.0 884 938 938 70.0 125.0 NC : 770.0 725.0 646 742 781 1,037.0 1,180.0 OK : 170.0 195.0 616 645 645 218.0 262.0 SC : 218.0 218.0 718 731 731 326.0 332.0 TN : 530.0 540.0 806 827 827 890.0 930.0 TX : 4,350.0 5,500.0 478 611 637 4,330.0 7,300.0 VA : 85.0 81.0 674 836 836 119.4 141.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 172.0 174.0 576 648 607 206.5 220.0 : US :11,826.0 12,970.0 723 747 771 17,822.9 20,830.0 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 2.4 3.0 920 960 960 4.6 6.0 CA : 149.0 219.0 1,194 1,403 1,414 370.5 645.0 NM : 6.0 11.0 1,056 916 916 13.2 21.0 TX : 20.0 20.0 1,056 1,032 1,032 44.0 43.0 : US : 177.4 253.0 1,170 1,347 1,357 432.3 715.0 : All : AL : 510.0 535.0 772 749 673 820.0 750.0 AZ : 215.4 239.0 1,236 1,317 1,317 554.6 656.0 AR : 945.0 920.0 916 903 976 1,804.0 1,870.0 CA : 694.0 776.0 1,290 1,447 1,481 1,865.5 2,395.0 GA : 1,290.0 1,260.0 785 762 667 2,110.0 1,750.0 LA : 510.0 490.0 967 637 764 1,027.0 780.0 MS : 1,090.0 1,090.0 934 800 925 2,120.0 2,100.0 MO : 390.0 385.0 862 823 860 700.0 690.0 NM : 44.0 75.0 908 934 934 83.2 146.0 NC : 770.0 725.0 646 742 781 1,037.0 1,180.0 OK : 170.0 195.0 616 645 645 218.0 262.0 SC : 218.0 218.0 718 731 731 326.0 332.0 TN : 530.0 540.0 806 827 827 890.0 930.0 TX : 4,370.0 5,520.0 480 612 639 4,374.0 7,343.0 VA : 85.0 81.0 674 836 836 119.4 141.0 : Oth : Sts 3/: 172.0 174.0 576 648 607 206.5 220.0 : US :12,003.4 13,223.0 730 758 782 18,255.2 21,545.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-Lb. net weight bales. 3/ Other States include FL and KS. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary". Cottonseed: Production, United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 6,183.9 6,664.6 7,879.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : AZ : 235 240 8.50 8.40 1,863 1,998 2,016 CA : 1,090 1,050 7.00 7.20 8,004 7,630 7,560 CO : 800 730 3.20 3.50 2,262 2,560 2,555 ID : 1,200 1,180 3.70 3.60 4,680 4,440 4,248 IL : 425 400 4.10 4.60 1,620 1,743 1,840 IN : 350 350 3.80 4.10 990 1,330 1,435 IA : 1,330 1,300 3.70 4.30 4,875 4,921 5,590 KS : 1,000 900 3.40 4.60 3,515 3,400 4,140 KY : 250 260 3.50 3.70 928 875 962 MI : 850 850 3.20 3.40 3,045 2,720 2,890 MN : 1,375 1,325 3.00 3.60 4,620 4,125 4,770 MO : 450 420 2.95 3.70 1,200 1,328 1,554 MT : 1,600 1,600 2.10 2.30 3,000 3,360 3,680 NE : 1,450 1,250 3.60 3.60 4,050 5,220 4,500 NV : 265 275 4.40 4.50 1,183 1,166 1,238 NM : 230 240 4.90 4.90 1,272 1,127 1,176 NY : 600 500 2.80 3.00 1,525 1,680 1,500 ND : 1,600 1,300 1.65 1.60 1,885 2,640 2,080 OH : 580 500 3.40 3.40 1,860 1,972 1,700 OK : 310 340 3.20 3.80 1,225 992 1,292 OR : 490 450 4.60 4.40 2,129 2,254 1,980 PA : 550 520 3.00 3.00 1,768 1,650 1,560 SD : 2,700 2,600 1.90 2.10 3,375 5,130 5,460 TX : 140 150 4.70 4.70 690 658 705 UT : 545 550 4.00 3.90 2,034 2,180 2,145 VA : 130 120 3.50 3.90 350 455 468 WA : 510 480 5.30 5.10 2,499 2,703 2,448 WI : 1,600 1,600 2.30 2.50 4,620 3,680 4,000 WY : 650 490 2.40 2.30 1,150 1,560 1,127 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 273 256 2.97 2.94 797 810 752 : US : 23,578 22,226 3.24 3.48 73,014 76,307 77,371 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AR, CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NC, RI, TN, VT, and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary". All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : AL : 780 850 2.60 2.70 1,815 2,028 2,295 AR : 1,320 1,460 2.20 2.20 3,243 2,904 3,212 CA : 480 490 3.50 3.40 1,770 1,680 1,666 CO : 700 730 1.50 1.90 715 1,050 1,387 GA : 600 580 3.00 3.00 1,560 1,800 1,740 ID : 300 300 1.70 1.80 608 510 540 IL : 350 350 2.80 2.60 683 980 910 IN : 300 290 2.60 3.00 630 780 870 IA : 270 300 2.20 2.60 770 594 780 KS : 2,250 2,200 1.60 2.20 3,450 3,600 4,840 KY : 2,200 2,000 2.50 2.50 4,200 5,500 5,000 LA : 380 360 2.90 2.60 1,050 1,102 936 MI : 200 250 2.00 2.20 506 400 550 MN : 700 650 1.60 1.80 1,190 1,120 1,170 MS : 750 720 2.50 2.90 1,875 1,875 2,088 MO : 3,800 3,900 1.80 2.30 7,123 6,840 8,970 MT : 850 950 1.50 1.70 1,540 1,275 1,615 NE : 1,700 1,550 1.40 1.50 1,700 2,380 2,325 NY : 1,250 1,150 1.60 2.00 2,090 2,000 2,300 NC : 760 700 2.60 2.50 1,314 1,976 1,750 ND : 1,350 1,300 1.45 1.45 2,035 1,958 1,885 OH : 770 720 2.60 2.70 1,540 2,002 1,944 OK : 2,500 2,500 1.60 1.90 4,760 4,000 4,750 OR : 625 655 2.20 2.50 1,364 1,375 1,638 PA : 1,100 1,200 2.20 2.30 1,680 2,420 2,760 SD : 1,600 1,500 1.30 1.30 1,440 2,080 1,950 TN : 2,000 1,950 2.30 2.50 4,095 4,600 4,875 TX : 5,100 4,800 2.30 2.70 12,720 11,730 12,960 VA : 1,150 1,250 2.60 2.60 2,125 2,990 3,250 WA : 300 310 3.00 3.20 837 900 992 WV : 500 520 1.90 1.90 936 950 988 WI : 500 500 1.40 1.60 720 700 800 WY : 550 500 1.40 1.40 450 770 700 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,779 1,878 2.22 2.19 3,919 3,947 4,113 : US : 39,764 39,363 2.03 2.25 76,453 80,816 88,549 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, CT, DE, FL, ME, MD, MA, NV, NH, NJ, NM, RI, SC, UT, and VT. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2004 Summary". Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 2/ : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 77.0 67.0 75.0 65.0 CO : 80.0 75.0 73.0 67.0 ID : 75.0 80.0 73.0 78.0 KS : 12.0 9.0 11.0 8.5 MI : 170.0 190.0 165.0 180.0 MN : 115.0 115.0 110.0 100.0 MT 3/ : 13.0 18.0 12.8 17.0 NE : 155.0 120.0 148.0 112.0 NM 3/ : 10.0 7.0 10.0 7.0 NY : 25.0 24.0 24.0 23.5 ND : 540.0 560.0 520.0 490.0 OR 3/ : 7.0 5.0 6.0 4.0 SD : 8.0 10.0 7.5 10.0 TX : 50.0 25.5 44.0 24.4 UT 3/ : 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.2 WA : 27.5 29.0 27.5 29.0 WI 3/ : 6.0 5.6 5.9 5.5 WY : 30.0 28.0 29.0 24.0 : US : 1,406.1 1,373.4 1,346.9 1,250.1 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield 4/ : Production 4/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Pounds ------ ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : CA : 1,870 2,000 1,403 1,300 CO : 1,600 1,900 1,168 1,273 ID : 2,050 2,100 1,497 1,638 KS : 2,100 1,800 231 153 MI : 1,500 1,650 2,475 2,970 MN : 1,700 1,300 1,870 1,300 MT 3/ : 1,820 2,000 233 340 NE : 2,130 1,850 3,151 2,072 NM 3/ : 1,860 2,000 186 140 NY : 1,860 1,500 446 353 ND : 1,500 1,100 7,800 5,390 OR 3/ : 1,650 1,700 99 68 SD : 1,770 1,800 133 180 TX : 1,170 1,000 513 244 UT 3/ : 310 500 16 26 WA : 1,910 2,100 525 609 WI 3/ : 2,100 2,200 124 121 WY : 2,220 2,150 645 516 : US : 1,672 1,495 22,515 18,693 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2/ Updated from the August "Crop Production" report. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 4/ Cleaned basis. Winter Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres CA : 8.5 13.0 8.5 13.0 FL : 6.1 5.7 5.8 5.5 : US : 14.6 18.7 14.3 18.5 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Cwt ------- ----- 1,000 Cwt ----- : CA : 310 250 2,635 3,250 FL : 240 285 1,392 1,568 : US : 282 260 4,027 4,818 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Acres ----- ---- Pounds --- ------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : CT : 2,180 2,300 1,361 1,740 3,315 2,966 4,001 FL : 4,400 4,000 2,500 2,500 11,960 11,000 10,000 GA : 27,000 24,000 2,200 1,950 53,000 59,400 46,800 IN : 4,200 4,300 1,950 2,050 7,800 8,190 8,815 KY : 111,650 113,800 2,016 2,094 222,991 225,042 238,245 MD : 1,100 1,100 1,450 1,600 1,800 1,595 1,760 MA : 1,250 1,250 1,398 1,714 1,859 1,748 2,143 MO 1/ : 1,400 1,400 2,020 2,600 3,122 2,828 3,640 NC : 159,700 156,700 1,878 2,230 347,920 299,995 349,515 OH : 5,300 5,800 1,650 1,900 9,625 8,745 11,020 PA : 3,700 4,000 2,130 2,025 6,815 7,880 8,100 SC : 30,000 27,000 2,100 2,200 59,475 63,000 59,400 TN : 31,140 31,380 2,108 2,118 71,331 65,632 66,472 VA : 25,110 29,780 1,546 2,274 64,407 38,818 67,722 WV 1/ : 1,200 1,300 1,300 1,500 1,885 1,560 1,950 WI : 1,820 1,500 2,338 2,390 3,817 4,255 3,585 : US : 411,150 409,610 1,952 2,156 871,122 802,654 883,168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured : Type 11, Old Belts : NC : 40,000 43,000 1,770 2,300 70,800 98,900 VA : 18,000 23,000 1,690 2,400 30,420 55,200 US : 58,000 66,000 1,745 2,335 101,220 154,100 Type 12, Eastern NC : Belt : NC : 94,000 89,000 1,955 2,250 183,770 200,250 Type 13, NC Border & : SC Belt : NC : 20,000 19,400 1,915 2,200 38,300 42,680 SC : 30,000 27,000 2,100 2,200 63,000 59,400 US : 50,000 46,400 2,026 2,200 101,300 102,080 Type 14, GA-FL Belt : FL : 4,400 4,000 2,500 2,500 11,000 10,000 GA : 27,000 24,000 2,200 1,950 59,400 46,800 US : 31,400 28,000 2,242 2,029 70,400 56,800 Total 11-14 : 233,400 229,400 1,957 2,237 456,690 513,230 Class 2, Fire-cured : Type 21, VA Belt : VA : 550 720 1,525 1,850 839 1,332 Type 22, Eastern : District : KY : 2,600 2,700 3,080 3,200 8,008 8,640 TN : 5,200 5,400 2,980 3,000 15,496 16,200 US : 7,800 8,100 3,013 3,067 23,504 24,840 Type 23, Western : District : KY : 2,500 2,500 3,530 3,600 8,825 9,000 TN : 400 420 3,350 3,400 1,340 1,428 US : 2,900 2,920 3,505 3,571 10,165 10,428 Total 21-23 : 11,250 11,740 3,067 3,118 34,508 36,600 Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3A, Light : Air-cured : Type 31, Burley : IN : 4,200 4,300 1,950 2,050 8,190 8,815 KY : 103,000 105,000 1,925 2,000 198,275 210,000 MO 1/ : 1,400 1,400 2,020 2,600 2,828 3,640 NC : 5,700 5,300 1,250 1,450 7,125 7,685 OH : 5,300 5,800 1,650 1,900 8,745 11,020 TN : 25,000 25,000 1,900 1,900 47,500 47,500 VA : 6,500 6,000 1,150 1,850 7,475 11,100 WV 1/ : 1,200 1,300 1,300 1,500 1,560 1,950 US : 152,300 154,100 1,850 1,958 281,698 301,710 Type 32, Southern MD : Belt : MD : 1,100 1,100 1,450 1,600 1,595 1,760 PA : 1,300 2,200 2,000 1,800 2,600 3,960 US : 2,400 3,300 1,748 1,733 4,195 5,720 Total 31-32 : 154,700 157,400 1,848 1,953 285,893 307,430 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 (continued) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : Class 3, Air-cured : Class 3B, Dark : Air-cured : Type 35, One Sucker : Belt : KY : 2,300 2,300 2,830 3,000 6,509 6,900 TN : 540 560 2,400 2,400 1,296 1,344 US : 2,840 2,860 2,748 2,883 7,805 8,244 Type 36, Green River : Belt : KY : 1,250 1,300 2,740 2,850 3,425 3,705 Type 37, VA Sun-cured: Belt : VA : 60 60 1,400 1,500 84 90 Total 35-37 : 4,150 4,220 2,726 2,853 11,314 12,039 Class 4, Cigar Filler : Type 41, PA Seedleaf : PA : 2,400 1,800 2,200 2,300 5,280 4,140 Class 5, Cigar Binder : Class 5A, CT Valley : Binder : Type 51, CT Valley : Broadleaf : CT : 1,400 1,450 1,400 1,850 1,960 2,683 MA : 970 950 1,470 1,750 1,426 1,663 US : 2,370 2,400 1,429 1,811 3,386 4,346 Class 5B, WI Binder : Type 54, Southern WI: WI : 1,400 1,100 2,480 2,550 3,472 2,805 Type 55, Northern WI: WI : 420 400 1,865 1,950 783 780 Total 54-55 : 1,820 1,500 2,338 2,390 4,255 3,585 Total 51-55 : 4,190 3,900 1,824 2,034 7,641 7,931 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper: Type 61, CT Valley : Shade-grown : CT : 780 850 1,290 1,550 1,006 1,318 MA : 280 300 1,150 1,600 322 480 US : 1,060 1,150 1,253 1,563 1,328 1,798 All Cigar Types : Total 41-61 : 7,650 6,850 1,863 2,025 14,249 13,869 : All Tobacco : 411,150 409,610 1,952 2,156 802,654 883,168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2004 : : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 :-------------------: 2003 : 2004 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- --------- Tons --------- -- 1,000 Tons -- : CA : 50.2 49.0 36.5 37.3 38.0 1,832 1,862 CO : 27.4 33.4 23.5 22.7 22.7 644 758 ID : 207.0 192.0 29.2 27.1 27.1 6,044 5,203 MI : 178.0 163.0 19.1 18.5 19.0 3,400 3,097 MN : 487.0 479.0 20.6 19.6 19.9 10,032 9,532 MT : 51.5 52.2 25.4 21.0 21.0 1,308 1,096 NE : 42.4 47.6 20.3 20.0 20.0 861 952 ND : 255.0 256.0 20.4 19.5 19.5 5,202 4,992 OH : 1.9 1.6 24.2 21.5 21.5 46 34 OR : 9.8 12.5 30.7 29.0 29.0 301 363 WA : 4.0 3.8 40.3 37.6 37.6 161 143 WY : 33.7 35.9 22.3 21.8 22.5 752 808 : US : 1,347.9 1,326.0 22.7 21.5 21.7 30,583 28,840 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA. Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2004 : : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 :-------------------: 2003 : 2004 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Tons --------- -- 1,000 Tons -- : FL : 438.0 420.0 39.3 37.0 36.0 17,231 15,120 HI : 21.3 24.1 97.7 94.0 94.0 2,082 2,265 LA : 490.0 475.0 26.2 26.0 24.0 12,838 11,400 TX : 45.1 42.5 37.8 36.0 36.0 1,706 1,530 : US : 994.4 961.6 34.0 33.0 31.5 33,857 30,315 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2002-2003, 2003-2004 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :---------------------------------------------------------- : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2004-05 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 :2004-05 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 200 300 270 8 12 10 CA 4/ : 42,000 38,000 46,000 1,575 1,426 1,725 FL : 112,000 126,000 92,000 5,040 5,670 4,140 TX : 1,350 1,420 1,650 57 60 70 US : 155,550 165,720 139,920 6,680 7,168 5,945 Valencia : AZ : 270 170 170 10 6 6 CA : 20,000 14,000 16,000 751 526 600 FL : 91,000 116,000 84,000 4,095 5,220 3,780 TX : 220 230 250 9 10 11 US : 111,490 130,400 100,420 4,865 5,762 4,397 All : AZ : 470 470 440 18 18 16 CA : 62,000 52,000 62,000 2,326 1,952 2,325 FL : 203,000 242,000 176,000 9,135 10,890 7,920 TX : 1,570 1,650 1,900 66 70 81 US : 267,040 296,120 240,340 11,545 12,930 10,342 Temples : FL : 1,300 1,400 800 59 63 36 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 16,200 15,900 4,000 689 675 170 Colored Seedless : FL : 22,500 25,000 11,000 957 1,063 468 All : AZ : 130 140 200 4 5 7 CA : 5,600 5,400 5,200 187 181 174 FL : 38,700 40,900 15,000 1,646 1,738 638 TX : 5,650 5,700 5,900 226 228 236 US : 50,080 52,140 26,300 2,063 2,152 1,055 Tangerines : AZ 6/ : 430 690 500 16 25 19 CA 6/ : 2,800 2,700 2,900 105 101 109 FL : 5,500 6,500 4,700 261 309 223 US : 8,730 9,890 8,100 382 435 351 Lemons : AZ : 3,000 3,000 2,400 114 114 91 CA : 24,000 18,000 19,500 912 684 741 US : 27,000 21,000 21,900 1,026 798 832 Tangelos : FL : 2,350 1,000 1,400 105 45 63 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos, Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5/ Includes seedy. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds : AZ 2/ : 26.2 7.0 30.0 AR 2/ : 3.3 2.6 2.8 CA 2/ : 470.0 450.0 440.0 CO 2/ : 21.0 22.0 24.0 CT 2/ : 12.0 21.5 20.0 GA 2/ : 10.0 13.0 14.0 ID 2/ : 80.0 70.0 100.0 IL 2/ : 43.0 52.5 56.0 IN 2/ : 40.0 51.0 50.0 IA 2/ : 8.5 6.0 11.0 KS 2/ : 2.5 3.4 4.8 KY 2/ : 5.6 7.5 8.0 ME 2/ : 48.5 44.0 45.0 MD 2/ : 32.0 40.0 34.0 MA 2/ : 33.0 42.5 41.0 MI : 520.0 840.0 690.0 MN 2/ : 25.0 27.0 26.0 MO 2/ : 38.0 40.0 36.0 NH 2/ : 26.5 26.0 28.0 NJ 2/ : 35.0 40.0 40.0 NM 3/ : 2.0 2.0 NY : 680.0 990.0 1,070.0 NC : 160.0 135.0 125.0 OH 2/ : 70.0 90.0 89.0 OR 2/ : 202.0 133.0 170.0 PA : 370.0 442.0 416.0 RI 2/ : 2.6 2.3 2.3 SC 2/ : 9.0 6.0 6.0 TN 2/ : 7.2 12.0 10.0 UT 2/ : 7.0 28.0 27.0 VT 2/ : 31.0 42.0 36.0 VA : 250.0 270.0 260.0 WA : 5,100.0 4,500.0 5,400.0 WV : 95.0 87.0 85.0 WI 2/ : 58.0 68.0 62.0 : US : 8,523.9 8,613.3 9,458.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ No forecast made. Only end of year estimates made. Pecans: Utilized Production by Variety, State, and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds Improved Varieties 1/ : AL : 4,000 7,000 950 AZ : 16,000 22,500 13,000 AR : 1,200 1,400 1,300 CA : 3,800 3,700 3,400 FL : 500 500 200 GA : 42,000 60,000 35,000 LA : 2,000 4,000 2,000 MS : 2,100 4,800 700 NM : 36,000 55,000 37,000 NC : 1,500 2,200 600 OK : 1,500 1,500 4,000 SC : 120 3,300 1,500 TX : 20,000 37,000 30,000 : US : 130,720 202,900 129,650 : Native & Seedling : AL : 1,000 1,000 50 AR : 500 2,400 900 FL : 900 1,600 300 GA : 3,000 15,000 5,000 KS : 2,900 2,000 2,500 LA : 4,000 16,000 6,000 MS : 900 2,200 300 NC : 400 300 100 OK : 8,500 4,500 24,000 SC : 80 1,200 500 TX : 20,000 33,000 20,000 : US : 42,180 79,200 59,650 : All Pecans : AL : 5,000 8,000 1,000 AZ : 16,000 22,500 13,000 AR : 1,700 3,800 2,200 CA : 3,800 3,700 3,400 FL : 1,400 2,100 500 GA : 45,000 75,000 40,000 KS : 2,900 2,000 2,500 LA : 6,000 20,000 8,000 MS : 3,000 7,000 1,000 NM : 36,000 55,000 37,000 NC : 1,900 2,500 700 OK : 10,000 6,000 28,000 SC : 200 4,500 2,000 TX : 40,000 70,000 50,000 : US : 172,900 282,100 189,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2002-2003 and Forecasted October 1, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :-------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : AZ 1/ : 8,400 8,000 4,000 AR 1/ : 4,800 2,600 3,300 CA : All Types : 6,696,000 5,790,000 5,500,000 Wine : 3,149,000 2,909,000 2,700,000 Table 2/ : 743,000 732,000 750,000 Raisin 2/ 3/ : 2,804,000 2,149,000 2,050,000 GA 1/ : 2,800 3,100 2,800 MI : 42,700 94,500 54,600 MO 1/ : 3,300 3,030 3,300 NY : 156,000 198,000 145,000 NC 1/ : 2,300 2,800 3,100 OH 1/ : 5,800 8,100 7,100 OR 1/ : 22,000 24,000 26,000 PA : 53,200 85,000 65,000 TX 1/ : 4,700 6,000 8,700 VA 1/ : 4,900 3,600 5,100 WA : All Types : 332,000 344,000 245,000 Wine : 115,000 112,000 105,000 Juice : 217,000 232,000 140,000 : US : 7,338,900 6,572,730 6,073,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Fresh basis. 3/ The Raisin Industry Diversion Program (RID) was not implemented in 2004 or 2003, but was implemented on the 2002 bearing acres. No production was realized from these acres. Acres enrolled are 27,000 for 2002. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Aug : 2,370 2,185 1,565 1,385 3,240 2,680 Sep : 2,370 1,990 1,565 1,050 3,025 2,715 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 5,348.0 4,527.0 4,727.0 4,031.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 78,736.0 80,968.0 71,139.0 73,311.0 Corn for Silage : 6,528.0 Hay, All : 63,342.0 61,589.0 Alfalfa : 23,578.0 22,226.0 All Other : 39,764.0 39,363.0 Oats : 4,597.0 4,085.0 2,220.0 1,807.0 Proso Millet : 730.0 720.0 620.0 Rice : 3,022.0 3,364.0 2,997.0 3,334.0 Rye : 1,348.0 1,380.0 319.0 320.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 9,420.0 7,528.0 7,798.0 6,559.0 Sorghum for Silage : 343.0 Wheat, All : 62,141.0 59,674.0 53,063.0 50,204.0 Winter : 45,384.0 43,350.0 36,753.0 34,462.0 Durum : 2,915.0 2,561.0 2,869.0 2,448.0 Other Spring : 13,842.0 13,763.0 13,441.0 13,294.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,082.0 868.0 1,068.0 832.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 595.0 629.0 583.0 608.0 Mustard Seed : 110.0 68.5 107.0 65.9 Peanuts : 1,344.0 1,429.0 1,312.0 1,388.0 Rapeseed : 1.3 11.8 1.2 11.4 Safflower : 221.0 142.0 212.0 133.0 Soybeans for Beans : 73,404.0 75,065.0 72,476.0 73,990.0 Sunflower : 2,344.0 1,864.0 2,197.0 1,780.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,479.6 13,763.0 12,003.4 13,223.0 Upland : 13,301.0 13,508.0 11,826.0 12,970.0 Amer-Pima : 178.6 255.0 177.4 253.0 Sugarbeets : 1,365.4 1,349.8 1,347.9 1,326.0 Sugarcane : 994.4 961.6 Tobacco : 411.2 409.6 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 21.1 25.5 15.6 16.6 Dry Edible Beans : 1,406.1 1,373.4 1,346.9 1,250.1 Dry Edible Peas : 337.5 480.0 328.5 454.0 Lentils : 246.0 300.0 237.0 293.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.9 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.2 0.2 Hops : 28.7 28.0 Peppermint Oil : 78.2 Potatoes, All : 1,272.6 1,188.8 1,248.6 1,168.1 Winter : 14.6 18.7 14.3 18.5 Spring : 88.6 73.5 84.7 71.7 Summer : 63.4 58.8 58.7 55.1 Fall : 1,106.0 1,037.8 1,090.9 1,022.8 Spearmint Oil : 15.8 Sweet Potatoes : 95.8 99.1 92.6 96.3 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 58.9 69.5 278,283 280,103 Corn for Grain : " : 142.2 158.4 10,113,887 11,613,226 Corn for Silage : Ton : 16.2 105,864 Hay, All : " : 2.48 2.69 157,123 165,920 Alfalfa : " : 3.24 3.48 76,307 77,371 All Other : " : 2.03 2.25 80,816 88,549 Oats : Bu : 65.0 64.5 144,383 116,505 Proso Millet : " : 18.5 11,450 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,645 6,763 199,157 225,488 Rye : Bu : 27.1 26.9 8,634 8,615 Sorghum for Grain : " : 52.7 70.4 411,237 461,857 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 10.4 3,552 Wheat, All : Bu : 44.2 43.1 2,344,760 2,163,520 Winter : " : 46.7 43.5 1,716,721 1,499,434 Durum : " : 33.7 37.0 96,637 90,468 Other Spring : " : 39.5 43.1 531,402 573,618 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,416 1,517 1,512,250 1,261,820 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 6,664.6 7,879.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 17.9 10,426 Mustard Seed : Lb : 723 77,372 Peanuts : " : 3,159 2,972 4,144,150 4,125,400 Rapeseed : " : 949 1,139 Safflower : " : 1,286 272,555 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 33.9 42.0 2,453,665 3,106,861 Sunflower : Lb : 1,213 1,346 2,665,226 2,395,199 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 730 782 18,255.2 21,545.0 Upland 2/ : " : 723 771 17,822.9 20,830.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,170 1,357 432.3 715.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 22.7 21.7 30,583 28,840 Sugarcane : " : 34.0 31.5 33,857 30,315 Tobacco : Lb : 1,952 2,156 802,654 883,168 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,115 174 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,672 1,495 22,515 18,693 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 1,584 5,202 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,030 2,442 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 673 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,407 8,300 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 37,500 40,000 6,000 6,000 Hops : " : 1,903 1,982 54,565.1 55,537.9 Peppermint Oil : " : 89 6,924 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 367 457,814 Winter : " : 282 260 4,027 4,818 Spring : " : 288 266 24,433 19,077 Summer : " : 320 336 18,766 18,487 Fall : " : 376 410,588 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 113 1,778 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 172 15,891 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 5,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2002-2004 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,063 2,152 1,055 Lemons : " : 1,026 798 832 Oranges : " : 11,545 12,930 10,342 Tangelos (FL) : " : 105 45 63 Tangerines : " : 382 435 351 Temples (FL) : " : 59 63 36 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 8,613.3 9,458.9 Apricots : Ton : 97.6 95.6 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 22,500.0 Grapes : Ton : 6,572.7 6,073.0 Olives (CA) : " : 118.0 85.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 42,600.0 Peaches : 1,000 Lbs: 2,519.0 2,598.4 Pears : Ton : 928.1 908.0 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 181.0 70.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 16.3 24.5 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 1,040,000 1,080,000 Hazelnuts (OR) : Ton : 37.9 44.0 Pecans : Lb : 282,100 189,300 Pistachios (CA) 3/ : " : 119,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 326.0 325.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,260 1,507 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2/ Production years are 2002-03, 2003-2004, and 2004-2005. 3/ September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2004 Preliminary Summary" to be released in January 2005. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 2,164,280 1,832,030 1,912,970 1,631,310 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,863,670 32,766,940 28,789,240 29,668,230 Corn for Silage : 2,641,820 Hay, All 3/ : 25,633,870 24,924,450 Alfalfa : 9,541,780 8,994,640 All Other : 16,092,090 15,929,810 Oats : 1,860,360 1,653,160 898,410 731,270 Proso Millet : 295,420 291,380 250,910 Rice : 1,222,970 1,361,380 1,212,860 1,349,240 Rye : 545,520 558,470 129,100 129,500 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,812,180 3,046,510 3,155,770 2,654,360 Sorghum for Silage : 138,810 Wheat, All 3/ :25,147,840 24,149,470 21,474,070 20,317,060 Winter :18,366,450 17,543,310 14,873,570 13,946,430 Durum : 1,179,670 1,036,410 1,161,060 990,680 Other Spring : 5,601,720 5,569,750 5,439,440 5,379,950 : Oilseeds : Canola : 437,870 351,270 432,210 336,700 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 240,790 254,550 235,930 246,050 Mustard Seed : 44,520 27,720 43,300 26,670 Peanuts : 543,900 578,300 530,950 561,710 Rapeseed : 530 4,780 490 4,610 Safflower : 89,440 57,470 85,790 53,820 Soybeans for Beans :29,705,860 30,378,050 29,330,310 29,943,010 Sunflower : 948,590 754,340 889,100 720,350 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,455,060 5,569,750 4,857,660 5,351,220 Upland : 5,382,780 5,466,550 4,785,860 5,248,830 Amer-Pima : 72,280 103,200 71,790 102,390 Sugarbeets : 552,560 546,250 545,480 536,620 Sugarcane : 402,420 389,150 Tobacco : 166,390 165,770 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,540 10,320 6,310 6,720 Dry Edible Beans : 569,030 555,800 545,080 505,900 Dry Edible Peas : 136,580 194,250 132,940 183,730 Lentils : 99,550 121,410 95,910 118,570 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,390 Ginger Root (HI) : 60 60 Hops : 11,600 11,340 Peppermint Oil : 31,650 Potatoes, All 3/ : 515,010 481,100 505,300 472,720 Winter : 5,910 7,570 5,790 7,490 Spring : 35,860 29,740 34,280 29,020 Summer : 25,660 23,800 23,760 22,300 Fall : 447,590 419,990 441,480 413,920 Spearmint Oil : 6,390 Sweet Potatoes : 38,770 40,100 37,470 38,970 Taro (HI) 4/ : 170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.17 3.74 6,058,900 6,098,520 Corn for Grain : 8.92 9.94 256,904,560 294,989,530 Corn for Silage : 36.35 96,038,210 Hay, All 2/ : 5.56 6.04 142,539,590 150,520,090 Alfalfa : 7.25 7.80 69,224,550 70,189,790 All Other : 4.56 5.04 73,315,040 80,330,300 Oats : 2.33 2.31 2,095,710 1,691,070 Proso Millet : 1.03 259,680 Rice : 7.45 7.58 9,033,610 10,227,960 Rye : 1.70 1.69 219,310 218,830 Sorghum for Grain : 3.31 4.42 10,445,900 11,731,710 Sorghum for Silage : 23.21 3,222,320 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.97 2.90 63,813,910 58,881,370 Winter : 3.14 2.93 46,721,490 40,807,910 Durum : 2.27 2.49 2,630,030 2,462,140 Other Spring : 2.66 2.90 14,462,390 15,611,320 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.59 1.70 685,950 572,350 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,046,020 7,147,710 Flaxseed : 1.12 264,830 Mustard Seed : 0.81 35,100 Peanuts : 3.54 3.33 1,879,750 1,871,250 Rapeseed : 1.06 520 Safflower : 1.44 123,630 Soybeans for Beans : 2.28 2.82 66,777,820 84,554,900 Sunflower : 1.36 1.51 1,208,930 1,086,440 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.82 0.88 3,974,600 4,690,870 Upland : 0.81 0.86 3,880,480 4,535,200 Amer-Pima : 1.31 1.52 94,120 155,670 Sugarbeets : 50.86 48.76 27,744,430 26,163,210 Sugarcane : 76.32 70.67 30,714,550 27,501,310 Tobacco : 2.19 2.42 364,080 400,600 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.25 7,890 Dry Edible Beans : 1.87 1.68 1,021,260 847,900 Dry Edible Peas : 1.77 235,960 Lentils : 1.15 110,770 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 30,530 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.58 3,760 Ginger Root (HI) : 42.03 44.83 2,720 2,720 Hops : 2.13 2.22 24,750 25,190 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,140 Potatoes, All 2/ : 41.10 20,766,100 Winter : 31.56 29.19 182,660 218,540 Spring : 32.33 29.82 1,108,260 865,320 Summer : 35.83 37.61 851,210 838,560 Fall : 42.19 18,623,960 Spearmint Oil : 0.13 810 Sweet Potatoes : 19.23 720,800 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,270 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,871,520 1,952,260 957,080 Lemons : 930,770 723,930 754,780 Oranges : 10,473,450 11,729,900 9,382,100 Tangelos (FL) : 95,250 40,820 57,150 Tangerines : 346,540 394,630 318,420 Temples (FL) : 53,520 57,150 32,660 : Noncitrus : Apples : 3,906,930 4,290,490 Apricots : 88,520 86,680 Bananas (HI) : 10,210 Grapes : 5,962,680 5,509,330 Olives (CA) : 107,050 77,110 Papayas (HI) : 19,320 Peaches : 1,142,600 1,178,610 Pears : 841,910 823,760 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 164,200 63,500 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,790 22,230 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 471,740 489,880 Hazelnuts (OR) : 34,380 39,920 Pecans : 127,960 85,870 Pistachios (CA) 3/ : 53,980 Walnuts (CA) : 295,740 294,840 Maple Syrup : 6,300 7,530 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2004 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2/ Production years are 2002-03, 2003-04, and 2004-05. 3/ September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2004 Preliminary Summary" to be released in January 2005. Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 10 corn producing States during 2004. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in these tables are rounded actual field counts from this survey. Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre, Selected States, 2000-2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Sep : 25,500 25,650 25,050 26,700 27,350 : Oct : 25,450 25,550 25,050 26,700 27,400 : Nov : 25,450 25,550 25,000 26,650 : Final : 25,450 25,550 25,000 26,650 : : IN : Sep : 24,500 25,500 23,900 25,350 26,200 : Oct : 24,550 25,350 23,650 25,400 25,950 : Nov : 24,650 25,400 23,650 25,350 : Final : 24,650 25,400 23,650 25,350 : : IA : Sep : 26,000 25,450 25,950 26,700 27,350 : Oct : 25,600 25,350 25,800 26,550 27,550 : Nov : 25,650 25,250 25,800 26,600 : Final : 25,650 25,250 25,800 26,600 : : KS 1/ : Sep : 25,350 : Oct : 25,400 : Nov : : Final : : : MN : Sep : 27,350 27,500 26,550 28,300 29,000 : Oct : 27,350 26,750 26,150 28,650 29,250 : Nov : 27,250 26,700 26,100 28,600 : Final : 27,250 26,700 26,100 28,600 : : MO 2/ : Sep : 24,400 : Oct : 24,250 : Nov : : Final : : : NE : Sep : 22,800 22,200 21,650 22,950 23,650 All : Oct : 22,750 21,950 21,250 22,650 24,000 : Nov : 22,700 22,050 21,200 22,600 : Final : 22,750 22,050 21,200 22,600 : : NE : Sep : 26,500 25,550 25,800 26,550 26,550 Irrigated : Oct : 26,350 25,350 25,700 26,350 26,700 : Nov : 26,350 25,350 25,650 26,300 : Final : 26,350 25,350 25,650 26,300 : : NE : Sep : 17,550 18,050 16,700 18,300 19,100 Non-Irrigated : Oct : 17,500 17,800 15,950 17,850 19,800 : Nov : 17,500 18,000 15,950 17,800 : Final : 17,500 18,000 15,950 17,800 : : OH : Sep : 24,450 25,550 23,700 25,500 25,950 : Oct : 24,250 25,250 22,400 25,700 26,000 : Nov : 23,950 25,150 22,350 25,750 : Final : 24,100 25,100 22,350 25,750 : : SD 2/ : Sep : 21,950 : Oct : 22,700 : Nov : : Final : : : WI : Sep : 26,100 26,100 25,950 26,150 25,600 : Oct : 25,500 26,100 25,050 26,300 27,150 : Nov : 25,550 26,100 25,250 26,250 : Final : 25,550 26,100 25,250 26,250 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Field counts began in 2004. 2/ Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 1996. Soybeans: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 11 soybean producing States during 2004. Randomly selected plots in soybean fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet, Selected States, 2000-2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR 1/ 2/: Sep : : Oct : 2,678 2,260 2,446 : Nov : 1,859 1,867 : Final : 1,835 1,817 : : IL : Sep : 2,162 2,041 1,952 1,800 2,070 : Oct : 1,996 1,932 1,785 1,606 1,923 : Nov : 2,020 1,932 1,795 1,634 : Final : 2,021 1,932 1,802 1,634 : : IN : Sep : 1,917 2,003 1,773 1,786 1,909 : Oct : 1,786 1,882 1,677 1,692 1,866 : Nov : 1,784 1,880 1,680 1,582 : Final : 1,784 1,869 1,680 1,582 : : IA : Sep : 1,830 1,809 1,988 1,749 1,772 : Oct : 1,674 1,778 1,828 1,629 1,731 : Nov : 1,660 1,787 1,867 1,647 : Final : 1,660 1,796 1,867 1,647 : : KS 3/ : Sep : 1,482 : Oct : 1,588 : Nov : : Final : : : MN : Sep : 1,607 1,492 1,688 1,582 1,487 : Oct : 1,509 1,433 1,785 1,417 1,406 : Nov : 1,507 1,475 1,739 1,440 : Final : 1,507 1,475 1,715 1,440 : : MO : Sep : 1,974 1,424 1,427 1,144 1,798 : Oct : 1,769 1,732 1,609 1,455 1,943 : Nov : 1,782 1,874 1,681 1,547 : Final : 1,793 1,921 1,705 1,523 : : NE : Sep : 1,795 1,961 1,548 1,727 1,835 : Oct : 1,617 1,932 1,517 1,642 1,836 : Nov : 1,619 2,003 1,587 1,636 : Final : 1,619 2,048 1,592 1,636 : : ND 3/ : Sep : 1,114 : Oct : 1,148 : Nov : : Final : : : OH : Sep : 1,893 1,801 1,593 1,791 1,808 : Oct : 1,625 1,834 1,495 1,898 1,873 : Nov : 1,685 1,785 1,499 1,764 : Final : 1,697 1,785 1,492 1,752 : : SD 3/ : Sep : 1,248 : Oct : 1,332 : Nov : : Final : ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ September data not available due to plant immaturity. 2/ Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 2002. 3/ Field counts began in 2004. Cotton: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in 7 cotton producing States during 2004. Randomly selected plots in cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, and Selected States, 2000-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2000 : 2001 : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep : 874 747 840 798 864 : Oct : 767 780 763 755 771 : Nov : 755 816 784 744 : Dec : 755 756 772 744 : Final : 755 756 772 744 : : CA : Sep : 760 939 945 973 954 : Oct : 790 902 1,041 945 952 : Nov : 801 921 1,009 893 : Dec : 800 918 1,011 893 : Final : 800 918 1,011 893 : : GA : Sep : 597 590 569 559 646 : Oct : 631 677 604 646 690 : Nov : 621 651 591 643 : Dec : 629 664 600 665 : Final : 629 664 608 664 : : LA : Sep : 722 625 663 681 635 : Oct : 692 592 756 778 707 : Nov : 674 582 749 775 : Dec : 674 588 742 775 : Final : 674 588 742 775 : : MS : Sep : 657 754 802 837 808 : Oct : 665 696 783 824 789 : Nov : 652 680 768 811 : Dec : 650 679 767 808 : Final : 650 679 767 808 : : NC : Sep : 670 719 636 628 758 : Oct : 724 722 629 630 719 : Nov : 743 696 560 632 : Dec : 747 705 567 632 : Final : 747 705 564 632 : : TX : Sep : 408 441 536 465 639 : Oct : 388 435 511 431 672 : Nov : 397 439 520 429 : Dec : 404 445 497 435 : Final : 448 445 497 433 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs per 40 feet of row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls. September Weather Summary The Atlantic Basin remained a breeding ground for hurricane activity from late August through mid-September, spawning Hurricanes Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. The first three of those hurricanes struck the eastern United States, and Frances and Jeanne made landfall in the same location along Florida's east coast just 3 weeks apart. Direct hurricane strikes on Florida by Charley (August 13), Frances (September 4-5), and Jeanne (September 25-26) marked the first triple hurricane blow to one state in a single season since 1964, when Florida endured landfalls from Hurricanes Cleo, Dora, and Isbell in a 7-week span. In addition, Ivan made landfall on September 16 near Gulf Shores, AL, blasting southern Alabama and western Florida with high winds, heavy rain, and a large storm surge. The remnants of Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne all moved northward across the East, resulting in monthly rainfall totals in excess of 2 feet at some locations in the southern Appalachians and causing widespread flooding as far north as the northern Mid-Atlantic States. In parts of Alabama and Georgia, the storms battered open-boll cotton and hampered fieldwork, including peanut harvesting. Farther west, a band of September dryness prevailed from the western and central Gulf Coast States northeastward across the middle Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes region. The dry conditions promoted crop maturation and harvesting, but stressed pastures and late-developing summer crops. Meanwhile, a second band of wet weather stretched from the southern Rockies and southern High Plains northeastward into the upper Midwest. Although September rain in the nation's mid-section was generally beneficial for maturing summer crops and newly planted winter wheat, excessively wet conditions developed toward month's end on the southern High Plains. In western Texas, late-September downpours halted fieldwork and increased concerns about the quality of open-boll cotton. Farther west, the remnants of eastern Pacific Hurricane Javier contributed to wetter-than-normal weather in the Four Corners region. Southwestern showers boosted topsoil moisture and aided pastures, but provided only limited relief from long-term drought. Meanwhile in the Northwest, scattered showers and near-normal temperatures maintained generally favorable conditions for emerging winter grains. In contrast, sub-soil moisture shortages on the northern High Plains remained a concern with respect to winter wheat establishment and pasture conditions. September Crop Summary Three hurricanes hit the Southeast during September. On September 5, Frances made landfall along Florida's east coast, with sustained winds of over 100 miles per hour. Citrus crops, already damaged by Hurricane Charley in August, received additional damage. Ivan hit the Alabama Gulf Coast on September 16, causing extensive wind damage to cotton and peanuts in southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle. On September 26, Jeanne made landfall in almost the same spot as Frances 3 weeks earlier, dealing yet another blow to Florida's citrus groves. The three systems, as they moved further inland and weakened to tropical storms, followed similar tracks between the Appalachians and the east coast, dumping heavy rainfall from Florida to Pennsylvania. Open boll cotton in the southern Atlantic Coast States was particularly vulnerable to the excessive rainfall, with crop conditions in Georgia and South Carolina declining significantly. Further west, conditions were warm and dry across the lower and middle Mississippi Valley, favoring maturation and harvest of summer crops. In the northern Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the Great Plains, where a cool summer had greatly delayed corn and soybean development, above normal temperatures prevailed during September but hopes for a timely harvest dwindled as progress remained well behind normal. Cool, dry weather prevailed across the southern Great Plains early in the month, favoring winter wheat planting. However, conditions were warmer and wetter after mid-month, aiding winter wheat emergence but slowing harvest of summer crops. In the Rocky Mountains, temperatures were mostly below normal, often dropping below freezing, while heavy precipitation, including some snow, around mid-month helped to replenish soil moisture. Dry conditions prevailed along the west coast through most of the month, encouraging fieldwork and harvest activity. Ninety-five percent of the Nation's corn acreage was at or beyond the dough stage on September 12, two percentage points behind last year and 3 points behind normal. Doughing was at or near completion in most areas but was well behind normal across the upper Midwest, from the Dakotas to Wisconsin. Progress had fallen behind during the summer, when below-normal temperatures prevailed in this area, and failed to gain ground during September despite warm weather. By October 3, denting had reached 97 percent complete, compared with 99 percent for last year and the 5-year average. Again, the crop was well behind average in the northern Great Plains and northern Corn Belt, trailing the normal pace by over 2 weeks in Minnesota and Wisconsin and by over 3 weeks in North Dakota. At that time, 74 percent of the crop was mature, 13 points behind last year and 15 points behind normal. Only 17 percent of North Dakota's crop was mature, 73 points behind the 5-year average of 90 percent. Maturation was 56 points behind normal in Minnesota, 42 points behind in Wisconsin, and 35 points behind in South Dakota. Harvest was 23 percent complete at month's end, 1 point behind last year and 5 points behind normal. Growers in the central and southern Great Plains were over 1 week behind normal, mostly due to wet field conditions hampering fieldwork. The sorghum crop turned color 1 week behind the normal pace throughout September, ending the month with 92 percent of the acreage at or beyond the coloring stage compared with 95 percent for the 5-year average. At month's end, 63 percent of the crop was mature, 1 point behind last year and 15 points behind normal. Maturation was over 1 week behind the normal pace throughout the Great Plains. As of October 3, thirty-eight percent of the acreage had been harvested, over 2 weeks behind the average. Texas growers were over 4 weeks behind their normal harvest pace, while growers in Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota were over 2 weeks behind. Only in Illinois and Louisiana was harvest progress ahead of normal. The Nation's oat crop was 96 percent harvested on September 19, four points behind last year and 3 points behind normal. Though harvest was complete in most States, progress lagged well behind the normal pace in Minnesota and North Dakota due to below-normal summer temperatures and the resulting developmental delays. Barley harvest had reached 96 percent complete by September 26, compared with 100 percent last year and 98 percent for the 5-year average. Development was delayed in the easternmost part of the major growing area due to the mild summer temperatures. Harvest progress was 3 weeks behind in Minnesota and 1 week behind in North Dakota. Winter wheat planting had begun across the Nation by September 26. A week later, 58 percent of the acreage had been planted, 1 point behind last year but 4 points ahead of normal. Planting was most advanced in Colorado, at 91 percent complete, followed by Montana and Nebraska, at 86 and 85 percent complete, respectively. Meanwhile, emergence also progressed ahead of the normal pace, reaching 29 percent on October 3, one point ahead of last year and 2 points ahead of the 5-year average. Over half of the crop had emerged in Colorado and Nebraska. Though emergence was at or near normal in most States, Montana's crop, at 43 percent, was 20 points ahead of normal. The spring wheat crop also developed slowly during the summer, delaying harvest. At month's end, harvest was just 94 percent complete, 2 weeks behind normal. Again, the harvest delay was mostly due to developmental delays in Minnesota and North Dakota, where growers were over 2 weeks behind the average harvest pace. Over two-thirds of the rice crop was harvested in the 5 weeks between August 30 and October 3. At the end of this period, 85 percent of the crop had been harvested, 9 points ahead of last year and 7 points ahead of normal. Encouraged by warm, dry weather in all growing areas, harvest advanced rapidly. Although Arkansas producers began the month 6 points behind their normal harvest pace, 3 consecutive weeks of 20-point advances put them 2 points ahead of normal by month's end. The soybean crop progressed steadily through the leaf dropping stage, advancing from 6 percent complete on August 29 to 86 percent complete on October 3, which was the same as last year but 2 points behind normal. Progress was farthest behind in the northern Corn Belt, trailing the normal pace by 22 points in Michigan and Wisconsin, due to planting delays and slow development during the mild summer. Harvest had begun in all States by month's end, reaching 36 percent complete nationwide, 5 points ahead of last year and 4 points ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest progress varied widely, from as much as 30 points ahead of normal in Mississippi to 1 week behind normal in the Dakotas and Minnesota. At month's end, 3 percent of the sunflower crop had been harvested, compared with 15 percent last year and 11 percent for the 5-year average. Of the 4 major producing States, harvest had begun in Colorado, Kansas, and South Dakota, but North Dakota growers had no significant progress reported. Only in Colorado was progress ahead of the normal pace, while Kansas and South Dakota growers were 16 points behind normal. The peanut harvest had begun in all States by September 19. However, harvest progress was delayed by heavy rainfall from the 3 hurricanes that hit the Southeast during September. On October 3, thirty percent of the acreage had been harvested, 3 points behind last year and 5 points behind normal. Harvest progress was most delayed in Georgia, where growers had harvested just 27 percent of their acreage, 13 points behind normal. Alabama producers had fallen 14 points behind their normal pace in the wake of Ivan but progressed rapidly in the final week of September, finishing the month with 44 percent of their acreage harvested, 3 points behind normal. Bolls opened behind the normal pace for the Nation's cotton crop. In early September, the biggest delays were in the Delta, where below-normal temperatures in August slowed development. However, by month's end, progress was back to near-normal levels in the Delta, while Texas's crop had slipped to over 2 weeks behind, again due to cool weather. Meanwhile, harvest advanced to 20 percent complete nationwide, 1 point ahead of last year but 5 points behind normal. Growers in Louisiana, Missouri, and Tennessee were 1 week behind their normal pace, while Texas producers were 2 weeks behind. Condition of the crop declined along the Atlantic Coast and eastern Gulf Coast as heavy precipitation from 3 hurricanes soaked fields with vulnerable open bolls. The sugarbeet harvest was underway in the 4 major producing States by September 26. A week later, 19 percent of the acreage had been harvested, 12 points behind last year and 8 points behind the 5-year average. Progress was behind normal in all States, with the biggest delay in Michigan, where growers had harvested just 2 percent of their crop, 23 points behind normal, due to warm weather preventing piling. Corn for Grain: Based on administrative data, updates to planted acreage were made in several States. However, total planted acreage remains unchanged at the National level. Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain was also revised in a number of States and is now forecast at 73.3 million acres, down 66,000 acres from September but up 3 percent from 2003. The October 1 corn objective yield data indicate the highest stalk count on record for the combined ten objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin). In a program expansion, objective yield data are now being collected for Kansas, Missouri, and South Dakota. The October 1 objective yield forecasted ears per acre are also at a record high, 3 percent above the previous record high set last year. As of October 3, seventy-three percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, up 6 percentage points from last month and 23 points above a year ago. Doughing was at or near completion in most areas but was well behind normal across the upper Midwest, from the Dakotas to Wisconsin. Progress had fallen behind during the summer, when below-normal temperatures prevailed in this area, and failed to gain ground during September despite warm weather. By October 3, denting had reached 97 percent complete, compared with 99 percent for last year and the 5-year average. Again, the crop was well behind average in the northern Great Plains and northern Corn Belt, trailing the normal pace by over 2 weeks in Minnesota and Wisconsin and by over 3 weeks in North Dakota. At the beginning of October, 74 percent of the crop was mature, 13 points behind last year and 15 points behind normal. Only 17 percent of North Dakota's crop was mature, 73 points behind the 5-year average of 90 percent. Maturation was 56 points behind normal in Minnesota, 42 points behind in Wisconsin, and 35 points behind in South Dakota. Harvest was 23 percent complete at month's end, 1 point behind last year and 5 points behind normal. Growers in the central and southern Great Plains were over 1 week behind normal, mostly due to wet field conditions hampering fieldwork. Sorghum: Production is forecast at 462 million bushels, down 2 percent from last month but up 12 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, the sorghum yield forecast is 70.4 bushels per acre, up 2.1 bushels from September and up 17.7 bushels from last year. Area for harvest as grain is forecast at 6.56 million acres, down 5 percent from last month and 16 percent below last year. Based on administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States. Planted area was updated to 7.53 million acres, down 7 percent from the June acreage estimate and down 20 percent from 2003. Yield increases from last month are expected in 7 of the top 11 producing States. Kansas, the largest producer, expects a yield of 75 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month. Texas, the second leading producer, expects a yield of 65.0 bushels, 4.0 bushels above last month. As of October 3, harvest had begun in all of the top 11 States, except New Mexico. In these States, the crop was 63 percent mature, slightly behind last year, and well below the 5-year average of 78 percent. In September, cool temperatures and moderate to heavy rainfall throughout much of the Great Plains caused slow development and harvest progress to lag behind normal. Nationwide, harvest progressed to 38 percent complete, behind last year's pace of 40 percent and the 5-year average of 53 percent. Crop condition as of October 3 was rated 61 percent good to excellent compared to 23 percent last year. Rice: Production is forecast at 225 million cwt, up 2 percent from September and up 13 percent from 2003. Harvested area, at 3.33 million acres, is unchanged from last month but is 11 percent above 2003. As of October 1, the U.S. all rice yield is forecast at a record high 6,763 pounds per acre. This yield is up 112 pounds from the September forecast and up 118 pounds from the record high yield established in 2003. As of October 3, the pace of rice harvest exceeded the 5-year average in all 6 estimating States. Harvest in Texas is complete and harvest in Louisiana, at 99 percent, is nearly complete. Mississippi harvest, at 94 percent complete, exceeded the 5-year average by 14 percentage points. Arkansas harvest, at 85 percent complete, is 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. In Missouri, harvest was 73 percent complete while California's harvest was 65 percent complete, exceeding their 5-year averages by 8 and 22 percentage points, respectively. Soybeans: Updates to planted acreage were made in several States based on administrative data. Area planted is up slightly from the August estimate to 75.1 million acres and up 2 percent from 2003. Growers expect to harvest 74.0 million acres of soybeans, up fractionally from September and up 2 percent from 2003. The October objective yield pod counts are forecasted up 3 percent from last month and up 12 percent from 2003. If realized, pod counts from the October Objective Yield survey will be the highest on record in Arkansas, Missouri, and Ohio. Only Minnesota has a lower pod count this year than in 2003. As of October 3, eighty-six percent of the soybean crop had dropped leaves, equal to last year but 2 percentage points behind normal. Crop maturity was most advanced in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, Nebraska, and South Dakota, where 93 percent or more of the crop had already dropped leaves. Soybean harvest was progressing ahead of normal as of October 3, with 36 percent harvested compared to an average of the 32 percent, lead by the Corn Belt and Delta States. However, harvest progress was significantly behind in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota due to cool summer temperatures slowing maturity. Sixty-six percent of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, 2 points higher than the August 29 rating and 18 percentage points above the rating of the same week a year ago. Sunflower: The first sunflower production forecast for 2004 is 2.40 billion pounds, down 10 percent from 2003 and 2 percent below 2002. Area planted, at 1.86 million acres, is down 1 percent from the June estimate and down 20 percent from last year. Sunflower farmers expect to harvest 1.78 million acres, down 1 percent from June and down 19 percent from the 2003 acreage. The October yield forecast, at 1,346 pounds, is 133 pounds more than the 2003 yield. As of October 1, higher yields are expected in 5 of the 7 major sunflower-producing States (Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Texas). Due to excellent growing conditions, record yields are expected in both Kansas and Texas. In North Dakota, the yield is forecast at 1,300 pounds per acre, down slightly from last year's 1,304 pound yield. As of October 3, harvest progress in Kansas and the Dakotas was lagging behind 2003 and the 5-year average, while Colorado harvest was just ahead of normal. Peanuts: Production is forecast at 4.13 billion pounds, down 7 percent from last month and down fractionally from 2003. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.39 million acres, down fractionally from September but up 6 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 2,972 pounds per acre, down 216 pounds from September and down 187 pounds from 2003. Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina) is expected to total 2.76 billion pounds, down 10 percent from September and down fractionally from last year. Expected area for harvest, at 968,000 acres, is down 1 percent from September but up 13 percent from 2003. Yields in the 4-State region are expected to average 2,852 pounds per acre, 313 pounds below September and 386 pounds below last year. As of October 3, peanut harvest in Alabama, at 44 percent complete, lagged the 5-year average by 3 percentage points. Florida's harvest, at 50 percent complete, lagged the 5-year average by 6 percentage points and Georgia, at 27 percent complete, lagged the average by 13 percentage points. Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 435 million pounds, unchanged from September but up 5 percent from 2003. Area for harvest is expected to total 137,000 acres, unchanged from September but up 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3,177 pounds per acre, unchanged from September but up 51 pounds per acre from last year. As of October 3, peanut harvest was 28 percent complete in North Carolina and Virginia harvest was 41 percent complete, exceeding the 5-year averages by 15 and 5 percentage points, respectively. Southwest peanut production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 929 million pounds, up fractionally from September but down 3 percent from 2003. The region's area for harvest, at 283,000 acres, is unchanged from last month but down 12 percent from 2003. Yields are expected to average 3,283 pounds per acre across the region, up 11 pounds per acre from September and up 321 pounds per acre from 2003. As of October 3, peanut harvest in Oklahoma, at 15 percent complete, lagged the 5-year average by 3 percentage points; whereas Texas harvest, at 19 percent complete, exceeded the 5-year average by 3 percentage points. Canola: The first canola production forecast for 2004 is 1.26 billion pounds, down 17 percent from 2003. Area planted, at 868,000 acres, is down 8 percent from the June estimate and down 20 percent from last year. Canola farmers expect to harvest 832,000 acres, down 9 percent from June and down 22 percent from 2003. The October yield forecast, at 1,517 pounds per acre, is 101 pounds above last year and 69 pounds above the record yield of 1992. North Dakota's yield, at 1,530 pounds per acre, is up 120 pounds from 2003 and, if realized, would be the best yield since estimates began in 1992. The canola yield in Minnesota is forecast at 1,350 pounds per acre, down 470 pounds from the record high yield of last year. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested area, at 13.0 million acres, is the same as last month but 10 percent above 2003. Based on additional survey and administrative data, Alabama expects to harvest 10,000 acres less than September, while Mississippi harvested area increased by 10,000 acres. American-Pima harvested area, at 253,000 acres, is the same as last month but up 43 percent from last year. During the month of September, three Hurricanes (Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne) crossed over the Southeast. Damage reported included plants that were blown over and twisted and cotton that was knocked out of the bolls. Producers were concerned that the bolls may become hard locked if they received more rain. Alabama, Florida, and Georgia producers expanded defoliation with the return of drier weather conditions at the end of September. Harvesting in the Delta region was limited to extreme southern areas at the beginning of the month. Defoliation was delayed until after dissipation of adverse weather associated with Hurricane Ivan. Ideal growing conditions benefitted the crop during the middle of the month in the northern portion of the region. Toward the end of the month, harvest expanded throughout the Delta but remained behind normal in most States due to below normal temperatures during the growing season. In Texas, harvest was winding down in southern areas of the State by mid-September and was nearly complete in central locations by the end of the month. The cotton crop in the Plains area was two weeks behind normal, because heat units were below normal throughout most of the growing season. Producers were defoliating and harvesting between rain showers. Cooler than normal temperatures slowed the development of Oklahoma's and Kansas' cotton crops which had previously been ahead of average maturity. California upland cotton producers experienced extremely cooperative weather, promoting rapid growth and steady development. The crop continues to mature ahead of the 5-year average. All of California's cotton continued to be rated good to excellent at the end of September. Whitefly population was more prevalent this month but remained under control. Harvest was underway in the San Joaquin Valley. Objective yield survey data indicate California's boll counts are higher than the previous ten years. American-Pima production is forecast at 715,000 bales, up slightly from September and up 65 percent from 2003. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,357 pounds per harvested acre, up 10 pounds from the September forecast. If realized, this would be 15 pounds above the record high yield established in 2002. Ginnings totaled 2,221,600 running bales prior to October 1, compared with 2,001,150 running bales ginned prior to the same date last year and 1,656,350 running bales in 2002. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Production is forecast at 77.4 million tons, virtually unchanged from the August forecast but up 1 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 3.48 tons per acre, unchanged from August but 0.24 ton above last year. Harvested area is 22.2 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 6 percent from 2003. Yields are at or above last year's level in all but 7 States. Across most of the Great Plains and Corn Belt, weather conditions throughout the growing season have been favorable. Sufficient moisture in the spring favored early season development, while frequent precipitation during the summer months aided growth. In California, the central and northern parts of the State experienced ideal weather conditions, but yield increases were limited by a shortage of irrigation water supplies. Other Hay: Production is forecast at 88.5 million tons, up 5 percent from August and up 10 percent from 2003. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 2.25 tons, up 0.10 ton from August and 0.22 ton above last year. If realized, both yield and production would be the highest on record. Harvested area is 39.4 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast but down 1 percent from the previous year. Yields are at or above last year's level in all but 4 States. Record high yields were set in Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, and Washington. In the Ohio Valley and Great Plains States, mild summer temperatures and adequate rainfall throughout the growing season allowed for ideal growing conditions. In Texas, some areas received moderate to heavy precipitation during September, which allowed for additional cuttings in these areas. Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is forecast at 18.7 million cwt for 2004, down 12 percent from the August forecast and 17 percent below last year. Harvested acreage is forecast at 1.25 million acres, 4 percent below the August forecast and down 7 percent from last year. The average U.S. yield is forecast at 1,495 pounds per acre, a decrease of 144 pounds from the August forecast and 177 pounds below last year. Planted acres are estimated at 1.37 million acres, an increase of 1 percent from earlier forecasts but a 2 percent decrease from 2003. Since August, production forecasts have decreased 32 percent in Minnesota, 30 percent in North Dakota, and 13 percent and 2 percent in Wyoming and Idaho, respectively. Michigan's production forecast is virtually unchanged. The decreases in Minnesota and North Dakota are due mainly to early frosts in mid-August that severely damaged the crop. In North Dakota, only 35 percent of the crop was fully podded when the frost occurred. Some fields were unable to be harvested because of the damage. North Dakota and Minnesota producers expect to abandon 70,000 acres and 15,000 acres, respectively, mostly due to the early frost. Heavy rains have also added to the reduced production in these 2 States. Production is expected to be lower than last year in 11 of the 18 producing States. All 11 States with lower production are harvesting less acres than last year, while 7 of the 11 also have lower yields than in 2003. Texas production is down 52 percent and Nebraska and Kansas are both down 34 percent. North Dakota and Oregon producers expect a reduction of 31 percent and Minnesota producers expect a 30 percent decrease. New Mexico production is down 25 percent, New York 21 percent, Wyoming 20 percent, California 7 percent, and Wisconsin a 2 percent decline. In Michigan, optimal growing conditions in September overcame the summer's below normal growing degree days. Harvest was ahead of normal by the end of September. In Nebraska harvest is moving slowly with yields below average. Growers in California have begun harvesting blackeyes and the crop is in good condition. Harvest in Wyoming is behind the 5 year average and the quality of the crop is below last year. Overall weather conditions in Texas have been good for dry beans but some loses were reported due to hail damage. Production in Idaho increased 9 percent from last year due mainly to a summer with less severe heat than last year. In Colorado, the weather was generally favorable with adequate water throughout the growing season, resulting in a 9 percent increase in production. Production in Washington is up 16 percent from last year due to an increase in acres and yield. Winter Potatoes: Production for 2004 is revised to 4.82 million cwt, up 38 percent from the April forecast and 20 percent above 2003. Harvested area of 18,500 acres in the 2 winter potato States (California and Florida) is 32 percent above the April 1 forecast and 29 percent more than last year. The average yield of 260 cwt per acre is up 10 cwt from the April forecast but 22 cwt below 2003. California's production, at 3.25 million cwt, is 23 percent above last season. Florida's production, at 1.57 million cwt, is up 13 percent from a year ago. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production is forecast at 883 million pounds, virtually unchanged from the September forecast but up 10 percent from 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 409,610 acres, 1 percent below September and down less than 1 percent from 2003. Yields for 2004 are expected to average 2,156 pounds per acre, 22 pounds higher than last month's forecast and 204 pounds above a year ago. Yields in North Carolina, the leading tobacco producing State, are expected to average 2,230 pounds per acre, 15 pounds more than September and 352 pounds more than a year ago. An increase in Flue-cured yields since last month in North Carolina more than offset a decrease in Burley yields. In Kentucky, the second leading State, growers expect to have yields averaging 2,094 pounds per acre, 46 pounds more than last month and 78 pounds more than 2003. Growers in Florida, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin expect lower yields than a month ago, while Georgia and Virginia producers expect higher yields. All other States remain unchanged since September. Flue-cured production is expected to total 513 million pounds, up less than 1 percent since last month and up 12 percent since last year. Growers plan to harvest 229,400 acres in 2004, down 1 percent from September and 2 percent below 2003. Yields are expected to average 2,237 pounds per acre, 22 pounds higher than last month and 280 pounds above a year ago. Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia growers reported increases in Flue-cured yields from last month. Burley production is expected to total 302 million pounds, virtually unchanged since September but up 7 percent since 2003. Growers plan to harvest 154,100 acres, down 1 percent since last month but up 1 percent since last year. Yields are expected to average 1,958 pounds per acre, up 29 pounds since last month and 108 pounds more than a year ago. Growers in Kentucky, the leading Burley producing State, forecast production at 210 million pounds, up 3 percent since last month and 6 percent above 2003. However, production in Virginia is forecast at 11.1 million pounds, down 20 percent from August. Heavy rains from hurricanes have caused problems with the Burley crop in the southwest regions of Virginia. This decrease in production in Virginia offsets the increase in production in Kentucky. Fire-cured tobacco production is expected to total 36.6 million pounds, virtually unchanged since September but up 6 percent since last year. Growers plan to harvest 11,740 acres, up less than 1 percent since last month and 4 percent above a year ago. The expected average yield is 3,118 pounds per acre, 2 pounds less than last month but 51 pounds more than a year ago. Southern Maryland Belt tobacco production is expected to total 5.72 million pounds, 10 percent lower than September but 36 percent higher than 2003. A total of 3,300 acres is expected to be harvested this year, unchanged since last month but up 38 percent from a year ago. Yields are expected to average 1,733 pounds per acre, 200 pounds less than last month and 15 pounds less than last year. Dark air-cured production is expected to total 12.0 million pounds, down 1 percent since September but up 6 percent since 2003. Growers plan to harvest 4,220 acres, down less than 1 percent since last month but up 2 percent since last year. Yields are expected to average 2,853 pounds per acre, down 24 pounds since last month but up 127 pounds since last year. All Cigar production is expected to total 13.9 million pounds, down 3 percent from both September and the previous year. Growers of cigar type tobacco plan to harvest 6,850 acres, 2 percent less than last month and 10 percent less than a year ago. Overall yield is expected to average 2,025 pounds per acre, down 19 pounds from last month but up 162 pounds from last year. Sugarbeets: Production for 2004 is forecast at 28.8 million tons, 1 percent above the September forecast but 6 percent below last year's production. The yield is forecast at 21.7 tons per acre, up 0.2 ton from September but 1.0 ton below 2003. Growers in the 12 sugarbeet-producing States expect to harvest 1.33 million acres, virtually unchanged from last month but 2 percent below last year. As harvest began across the Nation, yield expectations improved by 0.3 ton in Minnesota, 0.5 ton in Michigan, and 0.7 ton in California and Wyoming but remained unchanged elsewhere. As of October 3, harvest progress in the 4 major producing States was behind the 5-year average. North Dakota growers had advanced the most, harvesting 26 percent of their acreage. In Michigan, where just 2 percent of the crop was harvested, progress was 23 points behind normal. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2004 is forecast at 30.3 million tons, 4 percent below the September forecast and 10 percent below 2003. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 961,600 acres for sugar and seed during the 2004 crop year, unchanged from September but 3 percent less than last year's final harvested area. Yield is forecast at 31.5 tons per acre, 1.5 tons below the previous forecast and 2.5 tons below the 2003 yield. Florida's yield forecast, at 36.0 tons per acre, is down 1.0 ton from September due to damage caused by three hurricanes during September. However, wind damage was mostly limited to the edges of fields and harvested acreage was not expected to change. Harvest was delayed in Florida due to soggy fields and loss of power at processing plants. Louisiana's yield forecast declined 2.0 tons due to continued dry weather. At 24.0 tons per acre, this is the lowest yield since 1993. Harvest was 3 percent complete on October 3, compared with 9 percent for last year and the 5-year average. Grapefruit: The initial forecast for the 2004-05 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.06 million tons, down 51 percent from the previous season. Florida's grapefruit forecast is 15.0 million boxes (638,000 tons), 63 percent lower than last season. This forecast is greatly reduced from previous seasons because of the effects of four hurricanes that hit the State's growing areas in August and September. Only the southern area was not directly affected by high winds, with Hendry, Collier, and Lee counties receiving primarily heavy rainfall amounts on several occasions. The Indian River growing area was greatly affected by Hurricane Frances on September 5 and Hurricane Jeanne on September 29. Both storms brought high winds and heavy rain which blew fruit off the trees, broke limbs, and split trees. Standing water in groves has caused softening of fruit and continued fruit droppage. The all white grapefruit forecast is 4.00 million boxes (170,000 tons), 75 percent less than last season. Average fruit per tree is 109, down 78 percent from last season and fruit drop is above average due to the hurricanes. Fruit size is estimated to be above average but final sizes may change further as a result of continuing rainfall and standing water in groves. The colored seedless utilization is forecast at 11.0 million boxes (468,000 tons), down 56 percent from 2003-04. Six percent fewer colored seedless bearing trees are available for harvest this season. Average fruit per tree is greatly reduced because of the hurricanes and, at 210 pieces per tree, is 58 percent less than last season. Fruit drop is above average from last season. Average fruit size is larger than last season. California's grapefruit production is forecast at 5.20 million boxes (174,000 tons), down 4 percent from last season's utilization. Grapefruit for the 2004-05 season continued to develop normally as picking of the 2003-04 crop winds down. Harvesting of the new crop is expected to begin later this month. Warm late summer temperatures prompted many citrus growers to irrigate their groves, but so far there have been no reports of significant adverse effects from heat on the grapefruit crop. Market conditions for the new crop are expected to be very strong as a result of the extensive losses in Florida. Arizona's grapefruit forecast is 200,000 boxes (7,000 tons), an increase of 43 percent from last season, with grapefruit size anticipated to be the same or slightly larger than last season. Grapefruit production in Texas is forecast at 5.90 million boxes (236,000 tons), up 4 percent from the 2003-04 season. Harvest has not yet begun. Lemons: The initial forecast for the 2004-05 U.S. lemon crop is 832,000 tons, up 4 percent from last season. California production is forecast at 19.5 million boxes (741,000 tons), 8 percent above the 2003-04 season. District I (Central Valley) harvest will begin late October or early November. Harvest of new crop District II (South Coastal Area) lemons will not begin until late December or early January. Harvest of 2003-2004 crop lemons continued. The new crop harvest is in full swing in District III (Desert region). Overall fruit quality is very good. The 2004-05 Arizona lemon forecast is 2.40 million boxes (91,000 tons), 20 percent below the previous season. In Yuma County, approximately 7 to10 percent of the lemon crop has been harvested at this time. According to several packers, lemon harvest is behind schedule this year. This is due to a mild, wet February producing strong blooms, but 100 degree temperatures the last two weeks of March severely hurt the lemon crop. Tangelos: Florida's initial tangelo forecast is 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons), 40 percent more than last season's utilized production. Average fruit per tree is 80 percent above last season in spite of the hurricanes; however, bearing trees are 21 percent below last season. Droppage at harvest is expected to be above average but weather conditions in the next several months may alter the drop rate. Fruit sizes are projected to be smaller than average when compared to previous seasons. Temples: Florida's Temples are initially forecast at 800,000 boxes (36,000 tons) for the 2004-05 season, 43 percent below last season's final utilization of 1.40 million boxes. If realized, this will be the lowest amount since the 1954-55 season. Bearing trees continue to decline and are 12 percent lower than last season. Temple trees were uprooted and split as consequence of the hurricanes that affected the east coast and interior growing areas. Fruit per tree is down 43 percent from last season due to these recent hurricanes. Average fruit size and drop rate are expected to be above average but also may be altered by future weather conditions. Tangerines: The 2004-05 U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 351,000 tons, down 19 percent from last season's utilization of 435,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.70 million boxes (223,000 tons), 28 percent lower than last season's utilization. Early variety tree numbers and average fruit per tree are down from last season due to damage from the recent hurricanes. Many early variety trees were reported broken. Fruit size is above average and the droppage rate is expected to be near average. Late Honey variety production is expected to be the smallest since the 2000-01 season and average fruit per tree is slightly higher than the 10-season average. A large portion of these trees are located in the Southern area of Florida and were not affected by the hurricanes. Fruit size is expected to be slightly larger than last season with droppage rates near normal. The 2004-05 Florida tangerine forecast only includes the Fallglo, Sunburst, and Honey tangerines. California's tangerine forecast is 2.90 million boxes (109,000 tons), 7 percent higher than last season's crop. This season's tangerine crop is progressing well. Early season Satsuma variety harvest will begin in late October in the Central Valley. Arizona's tangerine forecast is 500,000 boxes (19,000 tons), down 28 percent from last season. Florida Citrus: The month of September was punctuated by the passage of two hurricanes through the center of the citrus areas of the State. Another storm, the remnants of Hurricane Ivan, circled around after entering the Florida panhandle, and crossed the State from east to west (West Palm Beach to Ft. Meyers) bringing heavy rainfall. Precipitation from that storm was heavy in the lower interior counties. Hurricane Frances entered the State near Stuart early on the 5th and exited north of Tampa. It was a slow moving storm with heavy rainfall. The east coast citrus counties received the heaviest wind with destructive results to citrus fruit and trees in the two major grapefruit producing counties of the State: St. Lucie and Indian River. Then on September 26th, exactly three weeks later, Hurricane Jeanne made landfall at the same location and moved northwest following nearly the same path as Hurricane Frances. As the storm moved ashore, winds around the hurricane's eye were even higher than Hurricane Frances. Again, fruit and trees were affected by high winds and heavy rainfall. As both storms moved through the center of the state, wind speeds dropped but heavy rainfall continued. Groves and low areas reported standing water; however, growers quickly tried to move water away from trees. Hurricane Jeanne was so large it affected all but three citrus producing counties in the State. Following the storms, heavy amounts of fruit were observed on the ground with tree limb breakage prevalent. Some trees were blown over with others suffering major limb damage. Citrus crops in the only counties not affected by the storms, Hendry, Collier, and Lee, are making good progress with no major problems reported. Fresh fruit crops are being sprayed when possible to hold down insect populations. In the flat woods and coastal areas, citrus growers are also maintaining ditches and canals to move excess water out of the groves and away from tree roots. Citrus growers and fresh packers are maturity testing grapefruit, early oranges, and tangerines with some Fallglow tangerines shipped near the end of the month. Texas Citrus: Recent rains in the Rio Grande Valley have improved the outlook for this year's crop as September is historically the wettest month in the region. However, the excess moisture has created a few problems as rust mites are expected to be worse this season. In some cases water had to be pumped out of the groves to prevent root rot. Runoff from heavy rains in West Texas should further swell the levels of the Amistad and Falcon Reservoirs located along the upper Rio Grande river. Due to the negative impact of recent hurricanes in the Florida groves, more citrus fruit is expected to be sold as "Fresh" with higher prices expected across the board. The price spike is predicted to have a greater impact on Texas grapefruit as compared to Texas oranges. This is because a greater percentage of Florida's grapefruit is expected to be lost when compared to Florida's percentage of oranges lost. Marginal fruit which has been left in the groves in past years, is expected to be harvested due to increased demand for available fruit. Harvest is not yet underway for most citrus. California Citrus: Insecticide, herbicide, and fertilizer applications were applied in citrus groves. Tree topping was underway in a few citrus groves. The Valencia orange harvest continued throughout the month at a slow pace. The Navel orange crop was progressing well, with large fruit sizes. There were some concerns about heat damage to the fruit. Lemons and grapefruit were harvested. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Seasonal cultural activities, including pruning, grafting, cultivating, and dormant spraying continued in orchards and vineyards. Ground preparations were underway for young trees as weather permitted. Removal of old, unproductive, or unprofitable orchards and vineyards continued. Buds on stone fruit trees showed earlier than normal signs of swelling. Some tree fruit growers began placement of pheromone dispersal devices to disrupt the mating cycles of insect pests. Pruning, cane tying, and brush shredding continued in wine, raisin, and table grape vineyards. Foliar fertilizer and scale treatments were applied to cherry trees in the San Joaquin Valley. Strawberry plants showed new growth in many locations. New strawberry fields were planted in the Kerman district. Zutanos and Hass avocado varieties were harvested and packed as maturity advanced. Olive groves were pruned and suckered. Cold weather insured dormancy in pistachio orchards. Apples: The final production forecast for the 2004 crop year is 9.46 billion pounds, up 1 percent from the August 1 forecast and 10 percent above 2003. Of the 7 States making October 1 production forecasts, New York and Washington increased from the August 1 forecast, Virginia and West Virginia remained unchanged, while Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania decreased from August. Growers in the Eastern and Central apple producing regions are expecting decreases in production from the August 1 forecast, while producers in the Western region are expecting an increase. Compared to 2003, production increases in the Eastern and Western States more than offset decreases in the Central States. The Western States (AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, UT, WA) production is forecast at 6.19 billion pounds, up 3 percent from the August 1 forecast and 19 percent above 2003. Washington, which makes up 57 percent of the U.S. forecast, is expecting 5.40 billion pounds of apples. Washington is up 4 percent from the previous forecast and 20 percent above last year. The apple harvest in Washington continues under ideal weather conditions. Despite spring storms and a hot, dry summer, overall quality is rated as good. All of the other Western States are carried forward from the August 1 forecast. Production in the Eastern States (CT, GA, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, NC, PA, RI, SC, VT, VA, WV) is forecast at 2.22 billion pounds, down 2 percent from the August 1 forecast but 1 percent above last season. Production from the August 1 forecast increased 2 percent in New York, remained unchanged in Virginia and West Virginia, and decreased 26 percent in North Carolina and 3 percent in Pennsylvania. In New York, fruit set was heavy with some reports of damage from August hailstorms. Steady summer rains helped increase fruit size. Harvest began about a week earlier than last year. There is some tree loss reported in North Carolina from the hurricanes, with scattered reports of storm damage in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. All other Eastern States are carried forward from the August 1 forecast. Production in the Central States (AR, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, TN, WI) is forecast at 1.05 billion pounds, down 6 percent from the August 1 forecast and 13 percent below 2003. Michigan's production decreased by 9 percent from the August forecast and 18 percent from 2003. Widespread hailstorms in Michigan reduced production potential and affected quality in some areas. As a result, some apples originally intended for the fresh market will be diverted to processing. Harvest began about a week ahead of normal. All other Central States are carried forward from the August 1 forecast. Pecans: Utilized production is forecast at 189 million pounds (in-shell basis), down 33 percent from last year's crop but 9 percent above the 2002 crop. The current crop is expected to be lower than last year's due to the alternate bearing pattern typical of pecans. In addition to being a low year in this cycle, the Southeastern States generally noted high disease pressure early in the growing season caused by excessive rainfall, followed by widespread damage to trees and nuts due to the hurricanes and tropical storms in August and September. Western growing areas reported some drought and insect concerns, but overall a good, low year crop. Improved varieties are expected to produce 130 million pounds or 68 percent of the total, while the Native and seedling varieties make up the difference. The Texas production forecast, at 50.0 million pounds, is 29 percent below the 2003 crop, but 25 percent above the 2002 crop. Growers in Texas' coastal areas reported scab caused by excessive amounts of rain, while growing conditions in other parts of the State were generally better. The Georgia production forecast is 40.0 million pounds, 47 percent below last year and down 11 percent from the last low crop in 2002. The last year Texas produced more pecans than Georgia was 1992. New Mexico's forecast, at 37.0 million pounds, is down 33 percent from last year but up 3 percent from two years ago. Oklahoma forecasts a 28.0 million-pound pecan crop, more than 4 times larger than last year's crop of 6.00 million pounds and more than double the 2002 crop. Ample rainfall from April to August has helped to produce an above average crop. This increased production forecast is mostly attributed to higher production expected from Native and seedling varieties. Production in Arizona is forecasted at 13.0 million pounds, 42 percent below last year and 19 percent less than two years ago. Growers reported that hot, dry weather hurt the pecan crop. The Louisiana forecast of 8.00 million pounds is down 60 percent from last year but 33 percent higher than the 2002 hurricane-damaged crop. The California production forecast, at 3.40 million pounds, is down 8 percent from last year and 11 percent below two years ago. Grapes: U.S. grape production is expected to total 6.07 million tons, down 5 percent from the August 1 forecast and 8 percent below 2003. California leads the U.S. in grape production with 91 percent of the total. Washington and New York are the next largest producing States, with 4 percent and 2 percent, respectively. California's all grape forecast, at 5.50 million tons, is down 4 percent from August and 5 percent less than a year ago. Washington grower's expect to produce 245,000 tons, 21 percent less than August and 29 percent below last year. New York's forecast, at 145,000 tons, is down 3 percent since August and 27 percent less than last year. California's wine type grape production is expected to total 2.70 million tons, 49 percent of California's total grape crop. The production forecast for wine type varieties is down 7 percent from both the August forecast and last season. Hot weather during the first half of September caused some dehydration affecting yields in some areas but overall quality is excellent. Harvesting continued in a few late season variety vineyards. California's raisin type grape production is forecast at 2.05 million tons, 37 percent of California's total grape crop. Production of raisin varieties is unchanged since August but down 5 percent since 2003. The quality of raisins is reported to be very good as the season's harvest nears completion. Production of table type grapes, at 750,000 tons, is unchanged since the last forecast but up 2 percent from a year ago. At this level of production, table type grapes make up 14 percent of the total California crop. This year's crop has produced large berries and bunch sizes with quality being reported as excellent. Harvest was active in Kern and Fresno Counties with Crimson Seedless, Red Globe, Autumn Royal, Ruby Seedless, and Christmas Rose being the primary varieties picked. Washington's production is forecast at 245,000 tons, 21 percent below August and 29 percent less than a year ago. The juice type grape forecast, at 140,000 tons, is 30 percent less than August and 40 percent below last year. If realized, this is the lowest production since 1996. The cold snap in January caused bud damage and clusters of grapes to ripen at different rates, resulting in fruit loss at harvest. Wine type grape production is forecast at 105,000 tons, 5 percent lower than the last forecast and 6 percent below a year ago. Bunch rot was a problem for some wine varieties. Berry size is reported to be smaller this year. Wine grape harvest began about 10 days early this year with warm days and cool nights helping coloring. Grape production for New York is forecast at 145,000 tons, down 3 percent since August and 27 percent since 2003. Growers in the Finger Lakes region are reporting low yields caused by cold temperatures in January. Rainy weather this summer adversely affected fruit quality and grapes are not ripening normally. Michigan's grape production is forecast at 54,600 tons, 22 percent below the August forecast and 42 percent below 2003. Black rot and phomopsis resulted from wet conditions before bloom in the southwest part of the State where weakened vines were already producing less fruit. Grape berry moth also caused heavy damage in some vineyards across southern Michigan. Pennsylvania's grape production is forecast at 65,000 tons, down 6 percent since August and down 24 percent since 2003. The yields and sugar content of Pennsylvania grapes were adversely affected by the remnants of hurricane Frances. Grape berry moth has caused damage and wet conditions have caused downy mildew, black rot, and some shelling due to phomopsis. Niagra grape harvest is complete and wine grape harvest is nearly complete, while the Concord harvest just began. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.72 million pounds for September, up 1 percent from last month but 10 percent lower than a year ago. Area in crop totaled 1,990 acres, down 9 percent from last month and 16 percent less than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,050 acres, down 24 percent from last month and 33 percent below September 2003. Wet weather in March adversely affected bloom, resulting in reduced production in September. Weather over the major producing areas was mostly dry during September with some passing light showers providing adequate soil moisture. Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecast Field Crop Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between September 24 and October 6 to gather information on expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, plant counts are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears, bolls, or pods and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail and personal interviewers. Approximately 17,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields. Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the October 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 79 percent of the U.S. production. In August and September 2004, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Field Crop Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecasts. Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. Estimates of planted acres for spring planted crops are subject to revision in the August Crop Production report if conditions altered the planting intentions since the mid-year survey. Planted acres may also be revised for cotton, peanuts, and rice in September Crop Production report each year; spring wheat, Durum wheat, barley, and oats only in the Small Grains Annual report at the end of September; and all other spring planted crops in the October Crop Production report. Revisions to planted acres will only be made when either special survey data or administrative data are available. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last forecast. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the October 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain production forecast is 3.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.0 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 178 million bushels, ranging from 4 million bushels to 624 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 11 times and above 9 times. This does not imply that the October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Root Mean : 20-Year Record of : : Square Error : Differences Between Forecast : :------------------: and Final Estimate : : : :------------------------------------ Crop :Unit : : 90 : Quantity : Years : :Percent: Percent :------------------------------------ : : :Confidence: : : :Below:Above : : : Interval :Average:Smallest:Largest:Final:Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ Million ------ Number : : Corn for Grain :Bu : 3.5 6.0 178 4 624 11 9 Sorghum for Grain :Bu : 6.1 10.5 26 1 105 10 10 Rice :Cwt : 2.9 4.9 4 1 13 11 9 Soybeans for Beans:Bu : 2.4 4.1 45 2 103 7 13 Cotton 1/ :Bales: 4.2 7.2 564 31 1,424 12 8 Dry Edible Beans :Cwt : 3.6 6.3 1 0 3 15 5 Oranges 1/ :Tons : 8.8 15.2 599 1 2,043 7 13 Oranges 1/ 2/ :Tons : 5.1 9.0 436 1 887 8 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. 2/ Excluding freeze seasons. Florida Citrus October 1 Forecast Procedures: The following describes the current procedures used by the USDA Florida Statistical Office staff to collect information for the October forecast. It also describes additional procedural steps and actions taken by the USDA Florida Statistical office to assess damages caused to the citrus crops by Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. The Florida citrus estimating procedures are some of the most highly developed of any U.S. agricultural statistics program. A total citrus tree inventory (by type and age) is completed every two years. A representative number of blocks of citrus trees are visited during mid-July to mid-September to select two random trees and limbs for fruit counts. This is complemented by samples that are selected to be visited monthly for determination of droppage and fruit size. Another set of citrus fruit blocks are located and selected along a sample route to determine maturity about the first of each month. All citrus forecasts are based on actual fruit counts and measurements. These objective count methods utilize: (1) the bearing age tree population provided from the latest aerial photography with field verifications, (2) the average fruit per tree obtained from the fruit count survey using randomly selected trees and limbs, and (3) the fruit measurement and fruit drop count surveys to determine fruit sizes and loss from fruit droppage. The latest Commercial Citrus Inventory is the base used to determine forecasted tree numbers for this season. All trees planted in 2001 and earlier are included. An attrition factor by age and area was applied to these base numbers to account for tree losses since the inventory period. The same unbiased fruit count procedures were used as in all of the past 47 seasons. These include drawing the sample with known probabilities from the Commercial Citrus Inventory based on analyses of the variability in fruit per tree. Using random path procedures, count limbs on sample trees are preselected to improve accuracy. Fruit on these limbs is counted in the mid-July to mid-September period. Fruit size surveys are conducted in August and September. The fruit loss surveys (drop count) began in August. These surveys, along with historical records, are used to project the fruit size at harvest and the fruit population that is expected to remain on trees for harvest. When Charley hit on Friday, August 13th, the USDA Florida Statistical Office had completed about 50% of the limb count work in the 3 major orange producing counties which were hardest hit: Hardee, Polk, and DeSoto. Crews were diverted to other areas of the State for a couple weeks in order to allow the damage in those 3 counties to be better measured. At the time of Frances on September 5, about 85% of the limb counts had been completed in the areas most affected by that Hurricane. Again, the counters stayed out of the Frances affected area for a period of time and concentrated on the Charley affected area. The approach was to complete the limb counts if they had not been made or to revisit at least one third of the other samples to recount the fruit on the sample limbs. Some conclusions are by now well known within the industry. Many of the weak trees were uprooted, older trees had more fruit loss than younger trees, and grapefruit and early orange varieties had more losses than Valencia oranges. The Florida Statistical Office had completed all limb count visits and revisits by September 25th, the day before Hurricane Jeanne. (Normally, limb counts would be finished by September 15th.) The procedures used will provide good information to evaluate the crop size for the October forecast. Hurricane Jeanne had higher, stronger winds and covered a wider area than the two earlier storms. However, since many weak trees had already been uprooted by the earlier storms, there seemed to be less tree loss but leaf loss is becoming a concern. Grove care crews continue working to divert standing water from around tree roots. The Florida Statistical Office staff used the monthly Maturity Survey samples for an indication of additional loss. As the crews drove their routes to evaluate maturity, they checked each block for "green" fruit on the ground which would have fallen due to Jeanne. Adjustment factors will be determined by location, type, and age of trees to be applied to the earlier expansions of fruit numbers from the limb count surveys. The observations for this procedure were made by seasoned, unbiased field crews. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Dennis Koong - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas(202) 720-3250 Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Rich Holcomb - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be included in the meeting. For registration details or additional information for the Data Users' Meeting, see the NASS homepage at www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact Karlyn McCutcheon (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at karlyn_mccutcheon@nass.usda.gov. This Data Users' Meeting precedes an Industry Outlook meeting that will be held at the same location on October 19, 2004. The Outlook meeting brings together analysts from various commodity sectors to discuss the outlook situation. For more information about the outlook meeting and to register contact Jim Robb (Livestock and Marketing Information Center) at (720) 544-2941 or at robb@lmic.info.