Cr Pr 2-2 (1-05) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 12, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Down 3 Percent The U.S. all orange January forecast for the 2004-05 season is 9.65 million tons, down 3 percent from the previous forecast and 25 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast, at 162 million boxes (7.29 million tons), is down 4 percent from the December forecast and 33 percent below the 2003-04 season. The production of early and midseason varieties is reduced 2 million boxes, to 84.0 million boxes (3.78 million tons), 2 percent less than the December forecast. The fruit drop rate at 18 percent is the second highest since 1960 with average fruit size the smallest since the 2000-01 season. Florida's early-mids harvest started late because of the smaller crop and lagging maturity level. Approximately 60 percent of the crop remains to be harvested. The Valencia forecast is decreased 4 million boxes to 78.0 million boxes (3.51 million tons), down 5 percent from the previous forecast. Florida's Valencia average drop rate is projected to reach 20 percent and average fruit size continues to be one of the smallest in the last 20 years. The all orange forecast for California, at 60.5 million boxes (2.27 million tons), is 2 percent less than the October forecast but 16 percent higher than last season's final utilization. The Navel orange forecast is down 2 million boxes from October at 44.0 million boxes (1.65 million tons) but 16 percent above last season. California's Navel orange fruit size is large with some fruit quality problems such as puff observed. The Navels fruit quality problems combined with a higher fruit drop rate caused by cold temperatures have resulted in reduced harvested volumes. California's Valencia orange forecast is increased 500 thousand boxes to 16.5 million boxes (619,000 tons), up 3 percent from the October forecast and 18 percent higher than last season's final estimate. Overall quality for California's Valencia oranges is good and fruit size is larger than last year. The all orange forecast for Texas, at 1.75 million boxes (75,000 tons), is 8 percent less than the October 1 forecast but 6 percent above the 2003-04 season. The early-midseason orange forecast is reduced 150,000 boxes to 1.50 million boxes (64,000 tons). The Valencia orange forecast, at 250,000 boxes, remains unchanged from the October 1 forecast but 9 percent higher than the previous season. Crop condition was reported as good. Arizona's all orange forecast is decreased 10,000 boxes to 430,000 boxes (16,000 tons). Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2004-05 season is forecast at 1.56 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from last month's projection. This is also the same as last season's final estimate of 1.56 gallons per box as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The early-midseason portion is projected to yield 1.50 gallons, up from 1.45 gallons for the 2003-04 crop. Valencia's are projected to yield 1.63 gallons compared to 1.69 gallons for last season. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationship this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on January 12, 2005. Secretary of Agriculture Ann M. Veneman Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Grains & Hay Hay Stocks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Tangerines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Temples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops Potatoes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . . . . . . 18 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2003-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :---------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Acres ------ --- Cwt --- ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : Winter : CA : 13.0 14.0 13.0 14.0 250 225 2,635 3,250 3,150 FL : 5.7 6.0 5.5 5.8 285 260 1,392 1,568 1,508 : Total : 18.7 20.0 18.5 19.8 260 235 4,027 4,818 4,658 : Spring 1/ : AZ : 6.2 6.2 285 2,090 1,767 CA : 17.5 17.5 475 8,360 8,313 FL : 24.8 24.5 313 8,008 7,678 Hastings: 18.2 18.0 320 5,684 5,760 Other FL: 6.6 6.5 295 2,324 1,918 NC : 17.0 13.5 200 2,975 2,700 TX : 11.0 10.5 210 3,000 2,205 : Total : 76.5 72.2 314 24,433 22,663 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Nov : 2,210 2,100 1,580 1,365 3,105 2,665 Dec : 2,210 2,230 1,350 1,395 3,115 3,050 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2002-2003, 2003-2004 and Forecasted January 1, 2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2004-05 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2004-05 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 200 300 240 8 12 9 CA : 42,000 38,000 44,000 1,575 1,426 1,650 FL : 112,000 126,000 84,000 5,040 5,670 3,780 TX : 1,350 1,420 1,500 57 60 64 US : 155,550 165,720 129,740 6,680 7,168 5,503 Valencia : AZ : 270 170 190 10 6 7 CA : 20,000 14,000 16,500 751 526 619 FL : 91,000 116,000 78,000 4,095 5,220 3,510 TX : 220 230 250 9 10 11 US : 111,490 130,400 94,940 4,865 5,762 4,147 All : AZ : 470 470 430 18 18 16 CA : 62,000 52,000 60,500 2,326 1,952 2,269 FL : 203,000 242,000 162,000 9,135 10,890 7,290 TX : 1,570 1,650 1,750 66 70 75 US : 267,040 296,120 224,680 11,545 12,930 9,650 Temples : FL : 1,300 1,400 700 59 63 32 Grapefruit : White Seedless 4/ : FL : 16,200 15,900 3,000 689 675 128 Colored Seedless : FL : 22,500 25,000 10,000 957 1,063 425 All : AZ : 130 140 180 4 5 6 CA : 5,600 5,400 5,300 187 181 178 FL : 38,700 40,900 13,000 1,646 1,738 553 TX : 5,650 5,700 6,200 226 228 248 US : 50,080 52,140 24,680 2,063 2,152 985 Tangerines : AZ 5/ : 430 690 450 16 25 17 CA 5/ : 2,800 2,700 2,900 105 101 109 FL : 5,500 6,500 4,500 261 309 214 US : 8,730 9,890 7,850 382 435 340 Lemons : AZ : 3,000 3,000 2,400 114 114 91 CA : 24,000 18,000 19,500 912 684 741 US : 27,000 21,000 21,900 1,026 798 832 Tangelos : FL : 2,350 1,000 1,100 105 45 50 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Includes seedy. 5/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States, December 1 and May 1, 2002-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dec 1 : May 1 State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2002 : 2003 1/ : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : AL : 1,750 1,764 1,965 254 487 AZ : 203 280 250 45 55 AR : 2,755 2,700 3,200 588 600 CA : 1,840 2,086 1,724 200 306 CO : 1,548 1,841 2,527 360 610 CT : 73 83 73 14 14 DE : 9 12 25 4 4 FL : 475 434 410 80 52 GA : 1,295 1,494 1,345 230 342 ID : 2,824 2,772 2,782 635 445 IL : 1,370 1,797 1,613 285 408 IN : 1,037 1,561 1,704 96 253 IA : 3,900 3,695 4,368 1,100 605 KS : 4,800 5,600 6,304 1,150 1,400 KY : 3,975 5,035 4,742 513 1,466 LA : 662 937 910 173 115 ME : 161 164 189 39 33 MD : 274 377 348 55 60 MA : 77 72 95 21 15 MI : 2,024 1,872 1,893 462 250 MN : 4,183 3,567 4,127 815 575 MS : 1,631 1,125 1,159 249 244 MO : 6,897 7,148 8,101 1,083 1,462 MT : 4,086 3,986 4,427 953 790 NE : 3,278 5,244 4,175 870 1,596 NV : 882 857 741 167 121 NH : 55 60 53 9 11 NJ : 61 96 161 11 40 NM : 550 525 545 98 115 NY : 2,169 2,430 1,895 520 552 NC : 934 1,625 1,545 50 405 ND : 4,300 4,690 3,923 940 828 OH : 1,666 2,504 2,250 215 556 OK : 5,357 4,244 5,186 1,190 1,275 OR : 2,550 2,357 2,366 340 371 PA : 2,138 2,440 2,700 380 570 RI : 10 10 12 1 2 SC : 413 601 557 65 186 SD : 5,825 7,210 6,939 1,154 1,515 TN : 3,318 3,830 4,199 504 1,182 TX : 10,460 9,910 10,451 3,888 2,849 UT : 1,210 1,495 1,383 175 279 VT : 240 332 276 80 86 VA : 2,329 2,515 2,716 272 758 WA : 1,600 1,620 1,560 285 470 WV : 934 957 1,030 95 191 WI : 3,600 3,110 3,532 1,100 920 WY : 1,250 1,963 1,818 200 478 : US : 102,978 111,027 114,294 22,013 25,947 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,527.0 4,021.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 80,930.0 73,632.0 Corn for Silage : 6,103.0 Hay, All : 61,916.0 Alfalfa : 21,707.0 All Other : 40,209.0 Oats : 4,085.0 1,792.0 Proso Millet : 710.0 595.0 Rice : 3,347.0 3,325.0 Rye : 1,380.0 320.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 7,486.0 6,517.0 Sorghum for Silage : 352.0 Wheat, All : 59,674.0 49,999.0 Winter : 43,350.0 41,567.0 34,462.0 Durum : 2,561.0 2,363.0 Other Spring : 13,763.0 13,174.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 865.0 828.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 523.0 516.0 Mustard Seed : 73.0 68.7 Peanuts : 1,430.0 1,394.0 Rapeseed : 8.7 7.8 Safflower : 175.0 159.0 Soybeans for Beans : 75,208.0 73,958.0 Sunflower : 1,873.0 1,711.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,658.6 13,057.0 Upland : 13,409.0 12,809.0 Amer-Pima : 249.6 248.0 Sugarbeets : 1,346.0 1,306.7 Sugarcane : 952.1 Tobacco : 409.1 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 30.5 21.5 Dry Edible Beans : 1,354.3 1,219.3 Dry Edible Peas : 530.0 507.8 Lentils : 345.0 329.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.8 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.2 Hops : 27.7 Peppermint Oil : 77.7 Potatoes, All : 1,194.0 1,168.1 Winter : 18.7 20.0 18.5 19.8 Spring : 76.5 72.2 Summer : 59.1 54.6 Fall : 1,039.7 1,022.8 Spearmint Oil : 15.1 Sweet Potatoes : 97.4 93.3 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 69.4 279,253 Corn for Grain : " : 160.4 11,807,217 Corn for Silage : Ton : 17.6 107,336 Hay, All : " : 2.55 157,774 Alfalfa : " : 3.47 75,383 All Other : " : 2.05 82,391 Oats : Bu : 64.7 115,935 Proso Millet : " : 25.3 15,065 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,942 230,818 Rye : Bu : 26.9 8,615 Sorghum for Grain : " : 69.8 454,899 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 13.5 4,763 Wheat, All : Bu : 43.2 2,158,245 Winter : " : 43.5 1,499,434 Durum : " : 38.0 89,893 Other Spring : " : 43.2 568,918 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,618 1,339,530 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 8,411.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 20.3 10,471 Mustard Seed : Lb : 819 56,290 Peanuts : " : 3,057 4,261,700 Rapeseed : " : 1,394 10,875 Safflower : " : 1,105 175,765 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 42.5 3,140,996 Sunflower : Lb : 1,197 2,047,863 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 846 23,006.0 Upland 2/ : " : 835 22,270.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,425 736.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 22.9 29,932 Sugarcane : " : 30.8 29,295 Tobacco : Lb : 2,159 883,171 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,228 264 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,460 17,799 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 2,249 11,419 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,271 4,182 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 899 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,220 7,100 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 40,000 6,000 Hops : " : 1,990 55,203.9 Peppermint Oil : " : 92 7,146 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 391 456,362 Winter : " : 260 235 4,818 4,658 Spring : " : 314 22,663 Summer : " : 345 18,858 Fall : " : 401 410,023 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 116 1,746 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 176 16,399 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 5,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,063 2,152 985 Lemons : " : 1,026 798 832 Oranges : " : 11,545 12,930 9,650 Tangelos (FL) : " : 105 45 50 Tangerines : " : 382 435 340 Temples (FL) : " : 59 63 32 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 8,613.3 9,458.9 Apricots : Ton : 97.6 95.6 Bananas (HI) : Lb : 22,500.0 Grapes : Ton : 6,572.7 6,073.0 Olives (CA) : " : 118.0 85.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 42,600.0 Peaches : Ton : 1,259.5 1,299.2 Pears : Ton : 928.1 908.0 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 181.0 70.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 16.3 24.5 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 1,040,000 1,080,000 Hazelnuts : Ton : 37.9 44.0 Pecans : Lb : 282,100 177,300 Pistachios (CA) 3/ : " : 119,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 326.0 325.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,260 1,507 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2/ Production years are 2002-2003, 2003-2004, and 2004-2005. 3/ September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2004 Preliminary Summary" to be released on January 25, 2005. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,832,030 1,627,260 Corn for Grain 2/ :32,751,560 29,798,130 Corn for Silage : 2,469,820 Hay, All 3/ : 25,056,790 Alfalfa : 8,784,610 All Other : 16,272,180 Oats : 1,653,160 725,200 Proso Millet : 287,330 240,790 Rice : 1,354,500 1,345,590 Rye : 558,470 129,500 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,029,510 2,637,360 Sorghum for Silage : 142,450 Wheat, All 3/ :24,149,470 20,234,100 Winter :17,543,310 16,821,750 13,946,430 Durum : 1,036,410 956,280 Other Spring : 5,569,750 5,331,390 : Oilseeds : Canola : 350,060 335,080 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 211,650 208,820 Mustard Seed : 29,540 27,800 Peanuts : 578,710 564,140 Rapeseed : 3,520 3,160 Safflower : 70,820 64,350 Soybeans for Beans :30,435,930 29,930,060 Sunflower : 757,980 692,420 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,527,500 5,284,040 Upland : 5,426,490 5,183,670 Amer-Pima : 101,010 100,360 Sugarbeets : 544,710 528,810 Sugarcane : 385,310 Tobacco : 165,540 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 12,340 8,700 Dry Edible Beans : 548,070 493,440 Dry Edible Peas : 214,490 205,500 Lentils : 139,620 133,140 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,350 Ginger Root (HI) : 60 Hops : 11,230 Peppermint Oil : 31,440 Potatoes, All 3/ : 483,200 472,720 Winter : 7,570 8,090 7,490 8,010 Spring : 30,960 29,220 Summer : 23,920 22,100 Fall : 420,760 413,920 Spearmint Oil : 6,110 Sweet Potatoes : 39,420 37,760 Taro (HI) 4/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.74 6,080,020 Corn for Grain : 10.06 299,917,130 Corn for Silage : 39.43 97,373,580 Hay, All 2/ : 5.71 143,130,170 Alfalfa : 7.78 68,386,310 All Other : 4.59 74,743,860 Oats : 2.32 1,682,790 Proso Millet : 1.42 341,670 Rice : 7.78 10,469,730 Rye : 1.69 218,830 Sorghum for Grain : 4.38 11,554,970 Sorghum for Silage : 30.33 4,320,920 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.90 58,737,800 Winter : 2.93 40,807,910 Durum : 2.56 2,446,490 Other Spring : 2.90 15,483,410 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.81 607,600 Cottonseed 3/ : 7,630,330 Flaxseed : 1.27 265,980 Mustard Seed : 0.92 25,530 Peanuts : 3.43 1,933,070 Rapeseed : 1.56 4,930 Safflower : 1.24 79,730 Soybeans for Beans : 2.86 85,483,900 Sunflower : 1.34 928,900 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.95 5,008,970 Upland : 0.94 4,848,720 Amer-Pima : 1.60 160,250 Sugarbeets : 51.35 27,153,850 Sugarcane : 68.97 26,575,980 Tobacco : 2.42 400,600 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.38 11,970 Dry Edible Beans : 1.64 807,350 Dry Edible Peas : 2.52 517,960 Lentils : 1.42 189,690 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 40,780 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.37 3,220 Ginger Root (HI) : 44.83 2,720 Hops : 2.23 25,040 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,240 Potatoes, All 2/ : 43.79 20,700,230 Winter : 29.19 26.37 218,540 211,280 Spring : 35.18 1,027,980 Summer : 38.71 855,380 Fall : 44.93 18,598,330 Spearmint Oil : 0.13 790 Sweet Potatoes : 19.70 743,850 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,360 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,871,520 1,952,260 893,580 Lemons : 930,770 723,930 754,780 Oranges : 10,473,450 11,729,900 8,754,330 Tangelos (FL) : 95,250 40,820 45,360 Tangerines : 346,540 394,630 308,440 Temples (FL) : 53,520 57,150 29,030 : Noncitrus : Apples : 3,906,930 4,290,490 Apricots : 88,520 86,680 Bananas (HI) : 10,210 Grapes : 5,962,680 5,509,330 Olives (CA) : 107,050 77,110 Papayas (HI) : 19,320 Peaches : 1,142,600 1,178,610 Pears : 841,910 823,760 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 164,200 63,500 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,790 22,230 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 471,740 489,880 Hazelnuts : 34,380 39,920 Pecans : 127,960 80,420 Pistachios (CA) 3/ : 53,980 Walnuts (CA) : 295,740 294,840 Maple Syrup : 6,300 7,530 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2/ Production years are 2002-2003, 2003-2004, and 2004-2005. 3/ September 1 forecast discontinued in 2004. Preliminary production estimate will be published in the "Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2004 Preliminary Summary" to be released on January 25, 2005. December Weather Summary December featured some brief but historically snowy, cold weather across the South. Ironically, wet snow Deep South Texas' first accumulation in more than a century helped to insulate citrus, sugarcane, and winter vegetables from a Christmas Day freeze. Meanwhile, warmer- and drier-than-normal weather prevailed in most areas from the High Plains to the Mississippi River, providing generally favorable conditions for overwintering grains. Somewhat wetter conditions were observed in the Great Lakes and Northeastern States, although much of the rain and snow fell early in the month. Farther south, a major snow and ice storm affected parts of the Ohio Valley and interior South on December 22-23. Toward the end of December, stormy weather returned to California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest, following nearly a month-long respite. The Western precipitation caused local flooding and mudslides, but padded high-elevation snow packs and further eased long-term drought. Farther north, however, snow packs remained mostly below normal for this time of year across the northern Rockies and northern Intermountain West. There were also some wild temperature swings in all parts of the United States. Although monthly temperatures averaged as much as 8 degrees F above normal on the northern Plains, readings briefly dipped to -20 degrees F or lower in some locations on December 23. Two days later, the high-pressure system responsible for Montana's cold snap reached the Deep South, where southern Texas noted a hard freeze (temperatures of 28 degrees F or lower). However, cool conditions were most persistent in the Southeast, where monthly temperatures averaged as much as 4 degrees F below normal. Nevertheless, Florida's winter agricultural areas avoided a significant freeze, although temperatures flirted with the freezing mark (32 degrees F) in the State's northern citrus belt on December 15. Meanwhile, monthly temperatures were mostly above normal in the West, despite cool spells in early December and again after mid-month. The Northwest was especially warm, relative to normal. December Crop Summary Conditions were warm and mostly dry across the Great Plains and Corn Belt, encouraging final harvest of summer crops in the northernmost parts of the regions, where cool summer weather had previously delayed maturation and harvest. However, some scattered fields of corn and soybeans remained to be harvested. Snow accumulation was below normal across most northern areas, leaving winter wheat vulnerable to freeze damage. Below-normal temperatures prevailed in the Delta and Southeast, with moderate to heavy precipitation. On Christmas morning, many areas along the western Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to the Rio Grande, were blanketed with snow -- for the first time in over 100 years for some locations. However, most crops in the area escaped serious damage, as temperatures fell below the critical 28 degrees Fahrenheit for only a few hours. Temperatures remained above freezing in Florida's citrus-producing area. In the Ohio Valley and central Atlantic Coast States, temperatures averaged near normal for the month. Just after midmonth, an arctic blast dropped temperatures in the area and brought up to 2 feet of snow to some areas. However, warm weather after Christmas quickly melted accumulated snowfall. A few corn and soybean fields remained unharvested. Both temperatures and precipitation were below normal in the Rocky Mountains. Though heavy snow fell in northern areas of the region toward month's end, snow accumulation remained well below normal, leaving winter wheat vulnerable to the cold. Further west, above-normal temperatures prevailed along the Pacific Coast, encouraging winter wheat emergence. Heavy precipitation in the area replenished soil moisture and improved crop condition. However, snow accumulation was below average in most winter wheat-producing areas and was mostly insufficient to protect the crop from extreme cold weather. Winter Potatoes: Production for 2005 is forecast at 4.66 million cwt, down 3 percent from a year ago but 16 percent above 2003. Harvested acreage in the two winter potato States (California and Florida) is estimated at 19,800 acres, up 7 percent from 2004, while the average yield is forecast at 235 cwt per acre, 25 cwt below last year. Harvest is underway in California's Kern County and proceeding normally. There have been no reports that the recent cold, wet weather has seriously affected the quality of the potatoes. In Florida, mostly mild, dry fall weather provided good conditions for planting and crop development. Most acreage escaped damage from the cold, wet weather in late December. Spring Potatoes: Production for 2004 is revised to 22.7 million cwt, up 19 percent from the May forecast but 7 percent below 2003. Harvested area totaled 72,200 acres, down 15 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 314 cwt per acre increased 26 cwt from 2003 and is a record high, 14 cwt above the previous record set in 1999. Spring potato production in Texas decreased 26 percent from 2003 and 15 percent in Arizona. Production in North Carolina is down 9 percent from the previous year and Florida's crop is 4 percent below 2003. California's crop decreased 1 percent from last year. Record high yields in California partially offset an 8 percent decrease in harvested acres. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 3.05 million pounds for December, 14 percent higher than last month but 2 percent lower than a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,230 acres, 6 percent higher than last month and up 1 percent from a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,395 acres, up 2 percent from last month and 3 percent above December 2003. Weather conditions were variable during December with a mix of showers and sunny periods. Soil moisture in non-irrigated orchards has been adequate. Grapefruit: The U.S. grapefruit forecast is 985,000 tons, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but 54 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's grapefruit forecast, at 13.0 million boxes (553,000 tons), is unchanged from December but 68 percent below last season's final utilization. The white grapefruit forecast is 3.00 million boxes (128,000 tons), unchanged from December but 81 percent below last season. White grapefruit size and drop projections have not changed since November. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 10.0 million boxes (425,000 tons), remains unchanged from December 1 but 60 percent below last season's final utilization. California's grapefruit production forecast is 5.30 million boxes (178,000 tons), 2 percent above the October forecast but 2 percent below the 2003-04 season. Market conditions continue to be very strong as a result of the extensive losses in Florida. Pummelos were harvested in the Central Valley and Rio Red variety in the desert region. Quality is reported as fair to excellent. The forecast for Texas grapefruit is 6.20 million boxes (248,000 tons), 5 percent above the previous forecast and 9 percent greater than last season. Harvest is underway with favorable prices reported. Minimal damage resulted from the Christmas Eve snowstorm. Arizona's grapefruit forecast is 180,000 boxes (6,000 tons), 10 percent below the October 1 forecast but 29 percent above the 2003-04 season. Lemons: The forecast for the 2004-05 U.S. lemon crop, at 832,000 tons, is unchanged from the October 1 forecast but up 4 percent from last season. California production is forecast at 19.5 million boxes (741,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 8 percent above the 2003-04 season. Harvest is active in all three growing districts but it has been disrupted by rain. A light crop was reported in the Desert region due to a hot spell last March that affected the bloom, causing trees to shed fruit. Quality is reported as good. Arizona's 2004-05 lemon forecast, at 2.40 million boxes (91,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 20 percent below the previous season. Arizona's lemon harvest is underway but behind schedule as a result of the negative impact of high temperatures and lack of precipitation during the lemon bloom period. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast, at 1.10 million boxes (50,000 tons), is unchanged from December 1 but 10 percent more than last season's utilized production. Harvest of early varieties for fresh market is virtually complete. Harvest for processing is increasing weekly. Tangerines: The 2004-05 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is 340,000 tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast and 22 percent below last season's final utilization of 435,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop, at 4.50 million boxes (214,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 31 percent below last season's utilization of 6.50 million boxes. Harvest of Florida's Fallglo tangerines is complete. Sunburst harvest is underway. The Honey variety average fruit size remains small and unchanged from last month but fruit drop rate has increased from 40 percent to 50 percent. The California tangerine forecast, at 2.90 million boxes (94,000 tons), is unchanged from October but up 7 percent from last season's final utilization. Harvest is underway but has been slowed by rain. Overall yield and fruit maturity were reported as good. Arizona's forecast is 450,000 boxes (17,000 tons), down 10 percent from the previous estimate and 35 percent below last season. Temples: Florida's Temples January 1 forecast, at 700,000 boxes (32,000 tons) for the 2004-05 season, is down 12 percent from December and 50 percent below last season's final utilization of 1.40 million boxes. Fruit drop rate, at 17 percent, is up 2 percent from the December forecast. If attained, this drop rate will be higher than any of the past 10 years. Average fruit size is small and slightly below the median when compared to the last 10 years. Florida Citrus: Florida's citrus growing areas experienced mostly dry weather with moderate temperatures during most of December. Near the end of the month, temperatures reached the low 30's in some northern and central locations for very short durations. No damage or loss was reported. Most stations reported variable amounts of rainfall, from trace amounts to several inches. Most rainfall fell during the third week of the month. Some growers returned to irrigation on an irregular basis while others stopped irrigation to induce light tree stress to protect from any later cold weather. Citrus crops and trees in all areas are making good progress with no major problems reported. Fruit sizes are reported small for all types. Growers are conducting typical winter cultural practices including weed and cover crop control, dead tree removal and replacement, and hedging in southern areas. Clean up of groves affected by the hurricanes continues, including removal of blown over and split trees, and ditch and furrow maintenance. Several fresh fruit packinghouses did not open this season but others were packing Navel, Hamlin, and Pineapple oranges; Temples; limited amounts of white and colored grapefruit; and Sunburst and Honey tangerines. All processors are open to receive packinghouse eliminations and field run early oranges. Harvest labor has been slow to come to the State with spot shortages reported. Arizona Citrus: Citrus growers in Yuma county reported approximately 70 percent of the lemon crop has been harvested at this time. Lemon harvest is behind schedule this year due to high temperatures the last two weeks of March hurting the lemon crop bloom. This, combined with no precipitation in August, contributed to lemons being nearly 20 percent lighter than last year. Nearly 10 percent of the grapefruit and tangerine/tangelo crop has also been harvested at this time. Harvest of these citrus crops is also behind schedule. In Maricopa county, approximately 63 percent of the navel and sweet oranges crop has been harvested. Lemons are 49 percent harvested and tangerines/tangelos are 15 percent harvested at this time. Citrus groves and quality of fruit are in good condition. Texas Citrus: Rio Grande Valley producers continue to benefit from adequate water supplies. Both Amistad and Falcon Reservoirs are at adequate levels due to excess rain in the Trans Pecos region. A rare snowfall occurred in the Valley on Christmas Eve night and into the early morning of Christmas Day. Snow depths of 1 to 4 inches were common in many groves. According to several thermometer readings in the region, the lowest temperature was 26 to 27 degrees for 2 or 3 hours, with temperatures quickly rising above freezing. Reports show very little damage to fruit, with only small grapefruit and oranges on the top of trees in northwest corners of groves revealing any freeze damage. Nursery and young trees did have browning leaves from the freeze but are expected to make a full recovery. Price still remained favorable due to supply shortages. Very little was expected to be left in groves as producers are picking all they can. A majority of fruit still remained to be harvested by year's end. California Citrus: Citrus growers applied pre-emergent herbicides and white wash in citrus groves. Citrus crops harvested included Navel oranges, Rio Red grapefruit, Satsuma mandarins, lemons, pummelos, tangerines, and clementines. The Navel crop was found to have some internal frost damage after it was received in the packing sheds. Some Navel trees began to exhibit fruit drop as a result of recent freezing temperatures followed by rain. Citrus fruit maturity and external color were excellent. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Fruit growers continued seasonal cultural activities in tree fruit orchards and grape vineyards, but wet weather at the end of the month slowed activities in some areas. Field work included pruning, shredding, and applying pre-emergent herbicides and dormant sprays. Trees and vines in older orchards and vineyards were pushed out, stacked, and burned, and the land was prepared for new plantings. Trees that blew down during the fall storms were removed from productive orchards. Harvesting of pomegranates continued into December, but in most locations it was was completed by the end of the first week of December. Persimmons were harvested throughout the month of December, but harvest was near completion by month's end. Strawberry, caneberry, and bareroot nursery stock digging was underway. Avocado harvesting was also ongoing during December. Olive orchards were pruned and brush was shredded. Growers continued pruning, shredding, and pre-emergent herbicide applications in nut orchards. Removal of non-productive orchards and trees that blew down during recent storms also continued. Walnut orchards were fumigated. Hulling and shelling of stockpiled nuts were complete by the end of December. Hay Stocks on Farms: Stocks of all hay stored on farms totaled 114 million tons on December 1, 2004, up 3 percent from the previous year. Disappearance of hay from May 2004 - December 2004 totaled 69.4 million tons, compared to 68.6 million tons for the same period a year ago. Hay stocks increased in most of the southern Great Plains States. In some areas, the improvement of range and pasture conditions resulted in a decrease of supplemental feeding of hay. Stocks decreased compared to last year in many of the western States. In California, an increased demand by dairy producers resulted in reduced grower supply on hand late in the year. Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 5.8 percent. However, if you exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 4.1 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 5.8 percent, or 4.1 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 10.0 percent, or 7.2 percent excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 429,000 tons (378,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 16,000 tons to 1.13 million tons (16,000 tons to 739,000 tons, excluding freezes). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 6 times and above 9 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Dennis Koong - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas(202) 720-3250 Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Rich Holcomb - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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