Cr Pr 2-2 (2-05) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 9, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Unchanged from January The U.S. all orange February forecast for the 2004-05 season is 9.65 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but 25 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast, at 162 million boxes (7.29 million tons), is unchanged from the January forecast but 33 percent below the 2003-04 season. The production of early-midseason varieties, at 84.0 million boxes (3.78 million tons), is unchanged from the January forecast. The row count survey, conducted January 25-26, 2005, shows harvest is lagging behind recent seasons. Florida's early-midseason harvest started late because of the smaller crop and lagging maturity level. The early-midseason fruit sized at an average rate during January. The drop rate, at 18 percent, is above the past 10 seasons' maximum for the early-midseason fruit. Approximately 40 percent of the crop remains to be harvested. The Valencia forecast, at 78.0 million boxes (3.51 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but is 33 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's Valencia average drop rate is increased from last month to 21 percent. Valencia fruit size increased from the January forecast and is projected to be near average. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from January. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2004-05 season is forecast at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up from last month's 1.56 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected to yield 1.52 gallons, higher than last season's final yield of 1.45 gallons per box. Valencias are projected to yield 1.66 gallons compared to 1.69 gallons for last season. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationship this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on February 9, 2005. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . . 5 Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . . 5 Tangerines. . . . . . . . . . 5 Temples . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . 4 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . .13 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . 6 Information Contacts . . . . . .16 Reliability of Production Data in this Report15 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . .12 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production By Use, State, and United States, 2003-2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ And :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 419.0 403.0 39.3 33.8 16,467 13,621 HI 2/ : 19.9 21.5 102.0 96.0 2,030 2,064 LA 2/ : 450.0 430.0 26.2 24.0 11,790 10,320 TX 2/ : 41.7 42.7 39.7 40.0 1,655 1,708 : US : 930.6 897.2 34.3 30.9 31,942 27,713 : For Seed : FL : 19.0 17.0 40.2 37.3 764 634 HI 2/ : 1.4 1.6 37.3 37.0 52 59 LA 2/ : 40.0 35.0 26.2 24.0 1,048 840 TX 2/ : 1.3 1.3 40.2 38.0 52 49 : US : 61.7 54.9 31.1 28.8 1,916 1,582 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 438.0 420.0 39.3 33.9 17,231 14,255 HI 2/ : 21.3 23.1 97.7 91.9 2,082 2,123 LA 2/ : 490.0 465.0 26.2 24.0 12,838 11,160 TX 2/ : 43.0 44.0 39.7 39.9 1,707 1,757 : US : 992.3 952.1 34.1 30.8 33,858 29,295 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2004 Summary." Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Dec : 2,230 1,395 3,050 Jan : 2,210 2,245 1,340 1,410 3,560 2,540 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2002-2003, 2003-2004 and Forecasted February 1, 2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2004-05 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2004-05 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early, Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 200 300 240 8 12 9 CA 4/ : 42,000 38,000 44,000 1,575 1,426 1,650 FL : 112,000 126,000 84,000 5,040 5,670 3,780 TX 4/ : 1,350 1,420 1,500 57 60 64 US : 155,550 165,720 129,740 6,680 7,168 5,503 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 270 170 190 10 6 7 CA 4/ : 20,000 14,000 16,500 751 526 619 FL : 91,000 116,000 78,000 4,095 5,220 3,510 TX 4/ : 220 230 250 9 10 11 US : 111,490 130,400 94,940 4,865 5,762 4,147 All : AZ 4/ : 470 470 430 18 18 16 CA 4/ : 62,000 52,000 60,500 2,326 1,952 2,269 FL : 203,000 242,000 162,000 9,135 10,890 7,290 TX 4/ : 1,570 1,650 1,750 66 70 75 US : 267,040 296,120 224,680 11,545 12,930 9,650 Temples : FL : 1,300 1,400 700 59 63 32 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 16,200 15,900 3,000 689 675 128 Colored Seedless : FL : 22,500 25,000 10,000 957 1,063 425 All : AZ 4/ : 130 140 180 4 5 6 CA 4/ : 5,600 5,400 5,300 187 181 178 FL : 38,700 40,900 13,000 1,646 1,738 553 TX 4/ : 5,650 5,700 6,200 226 228 248 US : 50,080 52,140 24,680 2,063 2,152 985 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 430 690 450 16 25 17 CA 4/ 6/ : 2,800 2,700 2,900 105 101 109 FL : 5,500 6,500 4,500 261 309 214 US : 8,730 9,890 7,850 382 435 340 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,000 3,000 2,400 114 114 91 CA : 24,000 18,000 19,500 912 684 741 US : 27,000 21,000 21,900 1,026 798 832 Tangelos : FL : 2,350 1,000 1,400 105 45 63 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with The completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. Per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) And midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5/ Includes seedy. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,527.0 4,021.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 80,930.0 73,632.0 Corn for Silage : 6,103.0 Hay, All : 61,916.0 Alfalfa : 21,707.0 All Other : 40,209.0 Oats : 4,085.0 1,792.0 Proso Millet : 710.0 595.0 Rice : 3,347.0 3,325.0 Rye : 1,380.0 320.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 7,486.0 6,517.0 Sorghum for Silage : 352.0 Wheat, All : 59,674.0 49,999.0 Winter : 43,350.0 41,567.0 34,462.0 Durum : 2,561.0 2,363.0 Other Spring : 13,763.0 13,174.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 865.0 828.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 523.0 516.0 Mustard Seed : 73.0 68.7 Peanuts : 1,430.0 1,394.0 Rapeseed : 8.7 7.8 Safflower : 175.0 159.0 Soybeans for Beans : 75,208.0 73,958.0 Sunflower : 1,873.0 1,711.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,658.6 13,057.0 Upland : 13,409.0 12,809.0 Amer-Pima : 249.6 248.0 Sugarbeets : 1,346.0 1,306.7 Sugarcane : 952.1 Tobacco : 409.1 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 30.5 21.5 Dry Edible Beans : 1,354.3 1,219.3 Dry Edible Peas : 530.0 507.8 Lentils : 345.0 329.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.8 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.2 Hops : 27.7 Peppermint Oil : 77.7 Potatoes, All : 1,194.0 1,168.1 Winter : 18.7 20.0 18.5 19.8 Spring : 76.5 72.2 Summer : 59.1 54.6 Fall : 1,039.7 1,022.8 Spearmint Oil : 15.1 Sweet Potatoes : 97.4 93.3 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or From previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop Year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 69.4 279,253 Corn for Grain : " : 160.4 11,807,217 Corn for Silage : Ton : 17.6 107,336 Hay, All : " : 2.55 157,774 Alfalfa : " : 3.47 75,383 All Other : " : 2.05 82,391 Oats : Bu : 64.7 115,935 Proso Millet : " : 25.3 15,065 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,942 230,818 Rye : Bu : 26.9 8,615 Sorghum for Grain : " : 69.8 454,899 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 13.5 4,763 Wheat, All : Bu : 43.2 2,158,245 Winter : " : 43.5 1,499,434 Durum : " : 38.0 89,893 Other Spring : " : 43.2 568,918 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,618 1,339,530 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 8,411.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 20.3 10,471 Mustard Seed : Lb : 819 56,290 Peanuts : " : 3,057 4,261,700 Rapeseed : " : 1,394 10,875 Safflower : " : 1,105 175,765 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 42.5 3,140,996 Sunflower : Lb : 1,197 2,047,863 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 846 23,006.0 Upland 2/ : " : 835 22,270.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,425 736.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 22.9 29,932 Sugarcane : " : 30.8 29,295 Tobacco : Lb : 2,159 883,171 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,228 264 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,460 17,799 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 2,249 11,419 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,271 4,182 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 899 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,220 7,100 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 40,000 6,000 Hops : " : 1,990 55,203.9 Peppermint Oil : " : 92 7,146 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 391 456,362 Winter : " : 260 235 4,818 4,658 Spring : " : 314 22,663 Summer : " : 345 18,858 Fall : " : 401 410,023 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 116 1,746 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 176 16,399 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 5,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or From previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop Year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,063 2,152 985 Lemons : " : 1,026 798 832 Oranges : " : 11,545 12,930 9,650 Tangelos (FL) : " : 105 45 63 Tangerines : " : 382 435 340 Temples (FL) : " : 59 63 32 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 8,713.1 10,078.3 Apricots : Ton : 97.6 100.7 Bananas (HI) 3/ : Lb : 22,500.0 Grapes : Ton : 6,552.5 5,972.5 Olives (CA) : " : 118.0 104.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 42,600.0 35,500.0 Peaches : Ton : 1,259.5 1,279.1 Pears : Ton : 928.1 893.3 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 181.0 49.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 16.3 24.9 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 1,040,000 1,020,000 Hazelnuts (OR) : Ton : 37.9 37.0 Pecans : Lb : 282,100 181,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 326.0 325.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,260 1,507 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or From previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop Year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2/ Production years are 2002-2003, 2003-2004, and 2004-2005. 3/ 2004 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,832,030 1,627,260 Corn for Grain 2/ :32,751,560 29,798,130 Corn for Silage : 2,469,820 Hay, All 3/ : 25,056,790 Alfalfa : 8,784,610 All Other : 16,272,180 Oats : 1,653,160 725,200 Proso Millet : 287,330 240,790 Rice : 1,354,500 1,345,590 Rye : 558,470 129,500 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,029,510 2,637,360 Sorghum for Silage : 142,450 Wheat, All 3/ :24,149,470 20,234,100 Winter :17,543,310 16,821,750 13,946,430 Durum : 1,036,410 956,280 Other Spring : 5,569,750 5,331,390 : Oilseeds : Canola : 350,060 335,080 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 211,650 208,820 Mustard Seed : 29,540 27,800 Peanuts : 578,710 564,140 Rapeseed : 3,520 3,160 Safflower : 70,820 64,350 Soybeans for Beans :30,435,930 29,930,060 Sunflower : 757,980 692,420 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,527,500 5,284,040 Upland : 5,426,490 5,183,670 Amer-Pima : 101,010 100,360 Sugarbeets : 544,710 528,810 Sugarcane : 385,310 Tobacco : 165,540 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 12,340 8,700 Dry Edible Beans : 548,070 493,440 Dry Edible Peas : 214,490 205,500 Lentils : 139,620 133,140 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,350 Ginger Root (HI) : 60 Hops : 11,230 Peppermint Oil : 31,440 Potatoes, All 3/ : 483,200 472,720 Winter : 7,570 8,090 7,490 8,010 Spring : 30,960 29,220 Summer : 23,920 22,100 Fall : 420,760 413,920 Spearmint Oil : 6,110 Sweet Potatoes : 39,420 37,760 Taro (HI) 4/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or From previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop Year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.74 6,080,020 Corn for Grain : 10.06 299,917,130 Corn for Silage : 39.43 97,373,580 Hay, All 2/ : 5.71 143,130,170 Alfalfa : 7.78 68,386,310 All Other : 4.59 74,743,860 Oats : 2.32 1,682,790 Proso Millet : 1.42 341,670 Rice : 7.78 10,469,730 Rye : 1.69 218,830 Sorghum for Grain : 4.38 11,554,970 Sorghum for Silage : 30.33 4,320,920 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.90 58,737,800 Winter : 2.93 40,807,910 Durum : 2.56 2,446,490 Other Spring : 2.90 15,483,410 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.81 607,600 Cottonseed 3/ : 7,630,330 Flaxseed : 1.27 265,980 Mustard Seed : 0.92 25,530 Peanuts : 3.43 1,933,070 Rapeseed : 1.56 4,930 Safflower : 1.24 79,730 Soybeans for Beans : 2.86 85,483,900 Sunflower : 1.34 928,900 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.95 5,008,970 Upland : 0.94 4,848,720 Amer-Pima : 1.60 160,250 Sugarbeets : 51.35 27,153,850 Sugarcane : 68.97 26,575,980 Tobacco : 2.42 400,600 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.38 11,970 Dry Edible Beans : 1.64 807,350 Dry Edible Peas : 2.52 517,960 Lentils : 1.42 189,690 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 40,780 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.37 3,220 Ginger Root (HI) : 44.83 2,720 Hops : 2.23 25,040 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,240 Potatoes, All 2/ : 43.79 20,700,230 Winter : 29.19 26.37 218,540 211,280 Spring : 35.18 1,027,980 Summer : 38.71 855,380 Fall : 44.93 18,598,330 Spearmint Oil : 0.13 790 Sweet Potatoes : 19.70 743,850 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,360 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or From previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop Year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,871,520 1,952,260 893,580 Lemons : 930,770 723,930 754,780 Oranges : 10,473,450 11,729,900 8,754,330 Tangelos (FL) : 95,250 40,820 57,150 Tangerines : 346,540 394,630 308,440 Temples (FL) : 53,520 57,150 29,030 : Noncitrus : Apples : 3,952,200 4,571,440 Apricots : 88,520 91,380 Bananas (HI) 3/ : 10,210 Grapes : 5,944,360 5,418,160 Olives (CA) : 107,050 94,350 Papayas (HI) : 19,320 16,100 Peaches : 1,142,600 1,160,390 Pears : 841,910 810,350 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 164,200 44,450 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,790 22,590 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 471,740 462,660 Hazelnuts (OR) : 34,380 33,570 Pecans : 127,960 82,100 Walnuts (CA) : 295,740 294,840 Maple Syrup : 6,300 7,530 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or From previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop Year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2/ Production years are 2003-04, 2004-05, and 2005-06. 3/ 2004 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. January Weather Summary In most sections of the United States, January's weather exhibited two distinct characteristics. For example, the first 2 weeks of January featured warmth, record wetness, and widespread flooding in the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys. Colder, drier weather followed, causing concerns in soft red winter wheat areas due to numerous freeze-thaw cycles and heaving of saturated soils. Near-record to record warmth also prevailed across much of the South and East until a pattern-changing cold front swept offshore on January 14. Although only light precipitation accompanied sharply colder weather in the Southeast, a major snowstorm swept across the upper Midwestern, Great Lakes, and Northeastern States from January 21-23, preceded and followed by several lesser storm systems. Unlike wheat fields in the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys, a thick blanket of snow protected the wheat crop from weather extremes in the lower Great Lakes region, including Michigan. Further west, a late-month return to wet weather (rain and snow) maintained adequate to locally excessive soil moisture reserves across the southern half of the Plains. In contrast, cold, occasionally snowy conditions on the northern Plains in early to mid-January were suddenly replaced by mild, windy weather. As a result, the northern High Plains' wheat crop lost not only its protective snow cover but some of its winter hardiness as well. The interior Northwest also experienced a rapid change from cool, showery weather early in the month to unfavorable dryness and record warmth. By month's end, water-supply concerns mounted across the Northwest due to meager mountain snow packs and already low reservoir levels. Farther south, record-setting precipitation totals deluged California, the Great Basin, and much of the Southwest through January 12, causing flash flooding and mudslides, but padding high-elevation snow packs, improving spring and summer runoff prospects, and further easing the effects of long-term drought. Quieter weather prevailed west of the Rockies thereafter, although a pair of storm systems brought a brief return of showery conditions to the Southwest during the last week of January. Despite a mid- to late-month cooling trend, January temperatures averaged 4 to 8 degrees F above normal across much of the South. Slightly lower (near-normal) temperatures were observed along the southern Atlantic Coast. Unusually mild weather also prevailed in the Four Corners States, where monthly temperatures in a few locations averaged more than 10 degrees F above normal. In contrast, mid- to late-month warmth only partially offset a bitterly cold start to the year on the northern Plains, where January temperatures averaged as much as 4 degrees F below normal. Meanwhile, temperatures varied sharply across the interior Northwest, ranging from as much as 6 degrees F below normal in the snow-covered northern Great Basin to 4 degrees F above normal in several locations farther north. Elsewhere, temperatures averaged near normal in California, while Midwestern readings ranged from 2 degrees F below normal in Michigan to as much as 8 degrees F above normal in the lower Ohio Valley. Some of the coldest weather, relative to normal, affected New England, where temperatures averaged as much as 4 degrees F below normal. January Crop Summary In the eastern and southern Corn Belt, persistent rain and snow showers disrupted fieldwork during most of the month. Much of the Ohio River Valley received over 8 inches of precipitation. With alternate freezing and thawing in the area, soil heaving became a concern for many winter wheat growers. Mostly dry conditions prevailed in the western Corn Belt. Temperatures averaged above normal across most of the Corn Belt. Mostly dry conditions prevailed across the northern Great Plains, preventing accumulation of snow cover, while temperatures as low as -30 degrees Fahrenheit threatened winter wheat. Further south, above-normal precipitation limited fieldwork, particularly in Texas, where the cotton harvest remained incomplete at month's end. Cotton harvest advanced 13 percentage points between January 9 and 30, from 83 percent complete to 96 percent. Snow cover was well below normal in the northern Rocky Mountains, leaving winter wheat in the region exposed to bitterly cold temperatures early in the month. Toward the end of the month, temperatures rose to well above normal, further thinning the protective snow cover. Elsewhere in the Rockies, temperatures were mostly above normal, while a series of storms brought moderate to heavy rain and snow. The Pacific Northwest also had below-normal snow cover throughout the month, though near-normal temperatures were not a threat to winter wheat. Heavy rain and snow in California and the Southwest boosted water supplies but hampered fieldwork through midmonth. California's cotton harvest was completed by midmonth despite wet conditions. As fields began to dry out toward month's end, harvest of citrus and vegetable crops resumed. Periods of freezing temperatures caused some ice mark and rind puff on navel oranges, reducing the quality of the crop. In the Mississippi Delta and Southeast, moderate to heavy precipitation and mild temperatures prevailed through midmonth, but conditions were mostly cool and dry thereafter. Toward month's end, ice storms occurred across much of the Southeast, but damage to crops was minimal. Freezing temperatures reached as far south as the Gulf Coast. However, temperatures remained above freezing in Florida's winter agricultural areas. Harvest of sugarcane, citrus, and vegetable crops remained active throughout the month, with only slight delays caused by wet conditions. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2004 is forecast at 29.3 million tons, unchanged from last month but 13 percent below 2003. Area harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed for the 2004 crop year, at 952,100 acres, is 4 percent less than last year's harvested area. Yield is forecast at 30.8 tons per acre, the same as January but 3.3 tons below the 2003 crop. In Florida, harvest remained active throughout January. However, acreage, yield, and production forecasts for the State are unchanged from the last month. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from January. Grapefruit: The U.S. grapefruit forecast is 985,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but 54 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's grapefruit forecast, at 13.0 million boxes (553,000 tons), is unchanged from January but 68 percent below last season's final utilization. If realized, this will be the lowest grapefruit utilization since the 1935-36 season. The white grapefruit forecast is 3.00 million boxes (128,000 tons), unchanged from January but 81 percent below last season. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 10.0 million boxes (425,000 tons), remains unchanged from January 1 but 60 percent below last season's final utilization. Colored grapefruit projected size is larger compared to January but the drop rate is higher. The two offsetting factors indicate the current forecast will still be realized. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried forward from January. Tangerines: The 2004-05 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is 340,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but 22 percent below last season's final utilization of 435,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop, at 4.50 million boxes (214,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 31 percent below last season's utilization of 6.50 million boxes. Harvest of Florida's Fallglo tangerines is complete. Sunburst harvest continues. The Honey variety final average fruit size is slightly higher than last month and final fruit drop rate has increased from 50 percent to 53 percent. Although not the highest tangerine drop rate on record, this year's drop rate is higher than nine of the last ten years. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from January. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast, at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons), is up 27 percent from January 1 and 40 percent more than last season's utilized production. The increase was based primarily on estimated utilization to February 1 at slightly over 1.2 million boxes. Temples: Florida's Temple forecast is 700,000 boxes (32,000 tons) for the 2004-05 season, unchanged from January but 50 percent below last season's final utilization of 1.40 million boxes. If realized, this will be the smallest amount since the Temple forecast series began in the 1953-54 season. The final fruit drop rate, at 22 percent, is up 5 percentage points from the January forecast. This final drop rate is higher than any of the past 10 years. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.54 million pounds for January, 17 percent lower than last month and 29 percent less than a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,245 acres, 1 percent higher than last month and up 2 percent from a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,410 acres, up 1 percent from last month and 5 percent above January 2004. Weather conditions were variable during January with a mix of showers and sunny periods. Soil moisture in non-irrigated orchards has been irregular with rain at the beginning of the month, followed by two weeks of little to no rainfall. The lack of rain towards the end of the month contributed to slowing fruit maturity and January's lower yield and production. Florida Citrus: Florida's weather patterns were generally typical over the citrus producing areas for January with cool nights and moderate day temperatures. The exception was several mornings as cold fronts passed through the State. Each one of these fronts brought varying amounts of rainfall and morning low temperatures in the mid to low 30's in some locations and only the mid 40's in others. Light frost was reported on one morning in northern and central locations. Daytime high temperatures during January were generally in the 70's with some days reaching into the low 80's. Days following the passage of the cold fronts were the exception with daytime temperatures remaining in the 50's. Rainfall patterns were also typical with most precipitation occurring prior to the passage of a cold front. Total rainfall in January was generally below normal in most areas. Harvest of early-midseason oranges increased with weekly harvest reaching over six million boxes during only one week. Navel orange harvest continued during the month with the fruit holding well. Grapefruit harvest for fresh shipments continued steady during the month with harvest for processing increasing near the end of the month. Sunburst tangerine harvest is complete and harvest of Honey tangerines is increasing. Tangelo harvest is nearing completion and Temple harvest for fresh and processing usage is increasing. California Citrus: Citrus growers conducted pest management field work in citrus groves including applications of pre-emergent herbicides and fungicides. Harvesting of navel oranges, lemons, grapefruit, and pummelos continued but was often delayed due to rain and fog in many locations. Citrus fruit maturity and external color were reported as excellent with good yields also being reported. However, ice mark and rind puff began appearing on some navels, resulting in lower pack-outs. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Variable weather during January caused delays in seasonal cultural activities in many locations. Grape growers pruned vines, tied canes, repaired trellis wire, and replaced end posts in wine, raisin, and table grape vineyards as weather and field conditions permitted. Fertilizers and soil amendments were applied in many vineyards. Tree and vine removal of unwanted varieties continued. The open ground was prepared for new plantings. Pruning and shredding activities neared completion in fruit and nut orchards but weed spraying, field fumigation, and dormant spraying continued as field conditions allowed. At month's end, growers began placing bees in almond orchards to aid in pollination. Pruning of olive orchards continued and brush was shredded. In the San Joaquin Valley, plum, peach, nectarine, and almond orchards began pushing buds. One plum orchard in the Sanger district was in full bloom. Field preparations for the spring strawberry crop were underway, with some growers laying out plastic. Cold temperatures during the month prompted berry growers to take measures to protect sensitive plants. Harvest activity of avocados increased. Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 4.3 percent. However, if you exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.7 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.3 percent, or 3.7 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 7.4 percent, or 6.6 percent excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 354,000 tons (336,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 62,000 tons to 745,000 tons (62,000 tons to 745,000 tons, excluding freezes). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 6 times and above 9 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye(202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Dennis Koong - Hay, Oats, Sorghum(202) 720-7688 Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas(202) 720-3250 Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Rich Holcomb - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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