Cr Pr 2-2 (3-05) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 10, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Down 3 Percent The U.S. all orange March forecast for the 2004-05 season is 9.38 million tons, down 3 percent from the February 1 forecast and 27 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast, at 153 million boxes (6.89 million tons), is down 6 percent from last month and 37 percent below the 2003-04 season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 81.0 million boxes (3.65 million tons), down 4 percent from last month and 36 percent below the previous season. The harvest of the early and midseason varieties is nearly complete. The drop rate, at 18 percent, is above the past ten seasons for the early-midseason fruit. Florida's Valencia forecast is 72.0 million boxes (3.24 million tons), down 8 percent from the February forecast and 38 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's average Valencia drop rate is increased from last month to 24 percent. Although not a record for a non-freeze year, it is the highest drop rate since the 1990-91 season. Valencia fruit size is less than projected last month and is smaller than nine of the last ten seasons. California's all orange forecast is 64.0 million boxes (2.40 million tons), up 6 percent from the January forecast and 23 percent above last season. Valencia oranges are forecast at 20.0 million boxes (750,000 tons), up 21 percent from the January forecast and 43 percent above last season's final utilization. Picking of Valencia oranges is underway in some of the southern growing regions. Overall, sizing appears to be down from the previous year but a significantly higher fruit set (807 fruit per tree compared to last season's fruit set of 392) accounts for the increase in production. Rapid decreases in Valencia acreage continue in most parts of the State, as growers abandon their groves or replace their Valencia trees with more profitable fruit or vegetable crops. California conducted an objective measurement survey for the March 1 forecast. The California navel forecast as well as Arizona and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from January. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2004-05 season, at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, is unchanged from last month. The early-midseason portion is increased from 1.52 to 1.53 gallons per box. The Valencia portion remains at 1.66 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationship this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on March 10, 2005. Acting Secretary of Agriculture J. B. Penn Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . . 5 Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . . 5 Tangerines. . . . . . . . . . 5 Temples . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . 4 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . .14 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . 6 Information Contacts . . . . . .17 Reliability of Production Data in this Report16 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . .12 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . .13 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production By Use, State, and United States, 2003-2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ And :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 419.0 403.0 39.3 33.8 16,467 13,621 HI 2/ : 19.9 21.5 102.0 96.0 2,030 2,064 LA 2/ : 450.0 430.0 26.2 24.0 11,790 10,320 TX 2/ : 41.7 42.7 39.7 40.0 1,655 1,708 : US : 930.6 897.2 34.3 30.9 31,942 27,713 : For Seed : FL : 19.0 17.0 40.2 37.3 764 634 HI 2/ : 1.4 1.6 37.3 37.0 52 59 LA 2/ : 40.0 35.0 26.2 24.0 1,048 840 TX 2/ : 1.3 1.3 40.2 38.0 52 49 : US : 61.7 54.9 31.1 28.8 1,916 1,582 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 438.0 420.0 39.3 33.9 17,231 14,255 HI 2/ : 21.3 23.1 97.7 91.9 2,082 2,123 LA 2/ : 490.0 465.0 26.2 24.0 12,838 11,160 TX 2/ : 43.0 44.0 39.7 39.9 1,707 1,757 : US : 992.3 952.1 34.1 30.8 33,858 29,295 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2004 Summary." Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Jan : 2,210 2,245 1,340 1,410 3,560 2,540 Feb : 2,200 2,250 1,345 1,410 2,775 2,280 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2002-2003, 2003-2004 and Forecasted March 1, 2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2004-05 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2004-05 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early, Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 200 300 240 8 12 9 CA 4/ : 42,000 38,000 44,000 1,575 1,426 1,650 FL : 112,000 126,000 81,000 5,040 5,670 3,645 TX 4/ : 1,350 1,420 1,500 57 60 64 US : 155,550 165,720 126,740 6,680 7,168 5,368 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 270 170 190 10 6 7 CA : 20,000 14,000 20,000 751 526 750 FL : 91,000 116,000 72,000 4,095 5,220 3,240 TX 4/ : 220 230 250 9 10 11 US : 111,490 130,400 92,440 4,865 5,762 4,008 All : AZ 4/ : 470 470 430 18 18 16 CA : 62,000 52,000 64,000 2,326 1,952 2,400 FL : 203,000 242,000 153,000 9,135 10,890 6,885 TX 4/ : 1,570 1,650 1,750 66 70 75 US : 267,040 296,120 219,180 11,545 12,930 9,376 Temples : FL : 1,300 1,400 700 59 63 32 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 16,200 15,900 3,000 689 675 128 Colored Seedless : FL : 22,500 25,000 10,000 957 1,063 425 All : AZ 4/ : 130 140 180 4 5 6 CA 4/ : 5,600 5,400 5,300 187 181 178 FL : 38,700 40,900 13,000 1,646 1,738 553 TX 4/ : 5,650 5,700 6,200 226 228 248 US : 50,080 52,140 24,680 2,063 2,152 985 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 430 690 450 16 25 17 CA 4/ 6/ : 2,800 2,700 2,900 105 101 109 FL : 5,500 6,500 4,500 261 309 214 US : 8,730 9,890 7,850 382 435 340 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,000 3,000 2,400 114 114 91 CA : 24,000 18,000 19,500 912 684 741 US : 27,000 21,000 21,900 1,026 798 832 Tangelos : FL : 2,350 1,000 1,500 105 45 68 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with The completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. Per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) And midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5/ Includes seedy. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,527.0 4,021.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 80,930.0 73,632.0 Corn for Silage : 6,103.0 Hay, All : 61,916.0 Alfalfa : 21,707.0 All Other : 40,209.0 Oats : 4,085.0 1,792.0 Proso Millet : 710.0 595.0 Rice : 3,347.0 3,325.0 Rye : 1,380.0 320.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 7,486.0 6,517.0 Sorghum for Silage : 352.0 Wheat, All : 59,674.0 49,999.0 Winter : 43,350.0 41,567.0 34,462.0 Durum : 2,561.0 2,363.0 Other Spring : 13,763.0 13,174.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 865.0 828.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 523.0 516.0 Mustard Seed : 73.0 68.7 Peanuts : 1,430.0 1,394.0 Rapeseed : 8.7 7.8 Safflower : 175.0 159.0 Soybeans for Beans : 75,208.0 73,958.0 Sunflower : 1,873.0 1,711.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,658.6 13,057.0 Upland : 13,409.0 12,809.0 Amer-Pima : 249.6 248.0 Sugarbeets : 1,346.0 1,306.7 Sugarcane : 952.1 Tobacco : 409.1 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 30.5 21.5 Dry Edible Beans : 1,354.3 1,219.3 Dry Edible Peas : 530.0 507.8 Lentils : 345.0 329.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.8 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.2 Hops : 27.7 Peppermint Oil : 77.7 Potatoes, All : 1,194.0 1,168.1 Winter : 18.7 20.0 18.5 19.8 Spring : 76.5 72.2 Summer : 59.1 54.6 Fall : 1,039.7 1,022.8 Spearmint Oil : 15.1 Sweet Potatoes : 97.4 93.3 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or From previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop Year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 69.4 279,253 Corn for Grain : " : 160.4 11,807,217 Corn for Silage : Ton : 17.6 107,336 Hay, All : " : 2.55 157,774 Alfalfa : " : 3.47 75,383 All Other : " : 2.05 82,391 Oats : Bu : 64.7 115,935 Proso Millet : " : 25.3 15,065 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,942 230,818 Rye : Bu : 26.9 8,615 Sorghum for Grain : " : 69.8 454,899 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 13.5 4,763 Wheat, All : Bu : 43.2 2,158,245 Winter : " : 43.5 1,499,434 Durum : " : 38.0 89,893 Other Spring : " : 43.2 568,918 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,618 1,339,530 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 8,411.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 20.3 10,471 Mustard Seed : Lb : 819 56,290 Peanuts : " : 3,057 4,261,700 Rapeseed : " : 1,394 10,875 Safflower : " : 1,105 175,765 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 42.5 3,140,996 Sunflower : Lb : 1,197 2,047,863 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 846 23,006.0 Upland 2/ : " : 835 22,270.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,425 736.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 22.9 29,932 Sugarcane : " : 30.8 29,295 Tobacco : Lb : 2,159 883,171 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,228 264 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,460 17,799 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 2,249 11,419 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,271 4,182 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 899 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,220 7,100 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 40,000 6,000 Hops : " : 1,990 55,203.9 Peppermint Oil : " : 92 7,146 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 391 456,362 Winter : " : 260 235 4,818 4,658 Spring : " : 314 22,663 Summer : " : 345 18,858 Fall : " : 401 410,023 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 116 1,746 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 176 16,399 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 5,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or From previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop Year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,063 2,152 985 Lemons : " : 1,026 798 832 Oranges : " : 11,545 12,930 9,376 Tangelos (FL) : " : 105 45 68 Tangerines : " : 382 435 340 Temples (FL) : " : 59 63 32 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 8,713.1 10,078.3 Apricots : Ton : 97.6 100.7 Bananas (HI) 3/ : Lb : 22,500.0 Grapes : Ton : 6,552.5 5,972.5 Olives (CA) : " : 118.0 104.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 42,600.0 35,500.0 Peaches : Ton : 1,259.5 1,279.1 Pears : Ton : 928.1 893.3 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 181.0 49.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 16.3 24.9 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 1,040,000 1,020,000 Hazelnuts (OR) : Ton : 37.9 37.0 Pecans : Lb : 282,100 181,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 326.0 325.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,260 1,507 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or From previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop Year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2/ Production years are 2002-2003, 2003-2004, and 2004-2005. 3/ 2004 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,832,030 1,627,260 Corn for Grain 2/ :32,751,560 29,798,130 Corn for Silage : 2,469,820 Hay, All 3/ : 25,056,790 Alfalfa : 8,784,610 All Other : 16,272,180 Oats : 1,653,160 725,200 Proso Millet : 287,330 240,790 Rice : 1,354,500 1,345,590 Rye : 558,470 129,500 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,029,510 2,637,360 Sorghum for Silage : 142,450 Wheat, All 3/ :24,149,470 20,234,100 Winter :17,543,310 16,821,750 13,946,430 Durum : 1,036,410 956,280 Other Spring : 5,569,750 5,331,390 : Oilseeds : Canola : 350,060 335,080 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 211,650 208,820 Mustard Seed : 29,540 27,800 Peanuts : 578,710 564,140 Rapeseed : 3,520 3,160 Safflower : 70,820 64,350 Soybeans for Beans :30,435,930 29,930,060 Sunflower : 757,980 692,420 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,527,500 5,284,040 Upland : 5,426,490 5,183,670 Amer-Pima : 101,010 100,360 Sugarbeets : 544,710 528,810 Sugarcane : 385,310 Tobacco : 165,540 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 12,340 8,700 Dry Edible Beans : 548,070 493,440 Dry Edible Peas : 214,490 205,500 Lentils : 139,620 133,140 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,350 Ginger Root (HI) : 60 Hops : 11,230 Peppermint Oil : 31,440 Potatoes, All 3/ : 483,200 472,720 Winter : 7,570 8,090 7,490 8,010 Spring : 30,960 29,220 Summer : 23,920 22,100 Fall : 420,760 413,920 Spearmint Oil : 6,110 Sweet Potatoes : 39,420 37,760 Taro (HI) 4/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or From previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop Year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.74 6,080,020 Corn for Grain : 10.06 299,917,130 Corn for Silage : 39.43 97,373,580 Hay, All 2/ : 5.71 143,130,170 Alfalfa : 7.78 68,386,310 All Other : 4.59 74,743,860 Oats : 2.32 1,682,790 Proso Millet : 1.42 341,670 Rice : 7.78 10,469,730 Rye : 1.69 218,830 Sorghum for Grain : 4.38 11,554,970 Sorghum for Silage : 30.33 4,320,920 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.90 58,737,800 Winter : 2.93 40,807,910 Durum : 2.56 2,446,490 Other Spring : 2.90 15,483,410 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.81 607,600 Cottonseed 3/ : 7,630,330 Flaxseed : 1.27 265,980 Mustard Seed : 0.92 25,530 Peanuts : 3.43 1,933,070 Rapeseed : 1.56 4,930 Safflower : 1.24 79,730 Soybeans for Beans : 2.86 85,483,900 Sunflower : 1.34 928,900 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.95 5,008,970 Upland : 0.94 4,848,720 Amer-Pima : 1.60 160,250 Sugarbeets : 51.35 27,153,850 Sugarcane : 68.97 26,575,980 Tobacco : 2.42 400,600 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.38 11,970 Dry Edible Beans : 1.64 807,350 Dry Edible Peas : 2.52 517,960 Lentils : 1.42 189,690 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 40,780 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.37 3,220 Ginger Root (HI) : 44.83 2,720 Hops : 2.23 25,040 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,240 Potatoes, All 2/ : 43.79 20,700,230 Winter : 29.19 26.37 218,540 211,280 Spring : 35.18 1,027,980 Summer : 38.71 855,380 Fall : 44.93 18,598,330 Spearmint Oil : 0.13 790 Sweet Potatoes : 19.70 743,850 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,360 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or From previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop Year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,871,520 1,952,260 893,580 Lemons : 930,770 723,930 754,780 Oranges : 10,473,450 11,729,900 8,505,760 Tangelos (FL) : 95,250 40,820 61,690 Tangerines : 346,540 394,630 308,440 Temples (FL) : 53,520 57,150 29,030 : Noncitrus : Apples : 3,952,200 4,571,440 Apricots : 88,520 91,380 Bananas (HI) 3/ : 10,210 Grapes : 5,944,360 5,418,160 Olives (CA) : 107,050 94,350 Papayas (HI) : 19,320 16,100 Peaches : 1,142,600 1,160,390 Pears : 841,910 810,350 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 164,200 44,450 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,790 22,590 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 471,740 462,660 Hazelnuts (OR) : 34,380 33,570 Pecans : 127,960 82,100 Walnuts (CA) : 295,740 294,840 Maple Syrup : 6,300 7,530 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or From previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop Year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2/ Production years are 2002-03, 2003-04, and 2004-05. 3/ 2004 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. February Weather Summary Continuing a winter-long trend, unfavorably dry weather in the Northwest contrasted with excessive precipitation in southern California and parts of the Southwest. By the end of February, Northwestern drought-related concerns included diminishing moisture reserves for winter grains, meager high-elevation snow packs, and poor spring and summer runoff prospects. Meanwhile, Southwestern storminess caused flash flooding and mudslides but continued to ease or eradicate long-term drought, although some large reservoirs remained low. A similar weather pattern prevailed on the Plains, where persistently dry weather across northern areas contrasted with widespread precipitation from southeastern Nebraska and Kansas southward. On the drought-affected northern High Plains, winter wheat-related concerns included soil moisture shortages and the crop's exposure to occasional temperature and wind extremes. By month's end, warm weather prompted winter wheat to begin breaking dormancy as far north as the central Plains. Farther east, below-normal February precipitation across much of the South promoted late-winter fieldwork but reduced topsoil moisture for pastures and winter grains. However, a pattern change toward month's end produced widespread rain and was especially beneficial across Florida's peninsula, reducing the threat of wildfires and easing citrus irrigation demands. Elsewhere, snow fell frequently during February across the Great Lakes and Northeastern States, while widespread showers maintained soggy conditions in feedlots and winter wheat fields across the southern and eastern Corn Belt. However, the upper Midwest continued to experience relatively mild winter conditions, with above-normal temperatures and generally light snow. Above-normal temperatures prevailed nearly nationwide during February, with the warmest weather, relative to normal, affecting the upper Midwest (5 to 10 degrees F above normal). Near-to slightly below-normal temperatures were confined to the Rio Grande Valley, parts of the West, and areas along and near the Atlantic Coast. February Crop Summary Conditions were very dry in the northern Great Plains, with little or no precipitation during February. Snow cover in the region remained well below normal and nonexistent in most areas, leaving winter wheat unprotected from cold weather. Temperatures averaged well above normal but occasionally fell below 0 degrees Fahrenheit, causing concern among growers. In contrast, the central and southern Great Plains had abundant precipitation, causing continued delays in fieldwork. The cotton harvest in Texas, usually complete by the end of January, remained incomplete as of February 27. Moderate precipitation, including occasional snow showers, saturated fields in the southern and eastern Corn Belt. With frequent repetition of the freeze-thaw cycle, soil heaving remained a problem in the region. Elsewhere in the Corn Belt, precipitation was light to moderate, and temperatures were well above normal. In the Mississippi Delta and Southeast, moderate to heavy precipitation hampered land preparation activities in some areas. Mild temperatures in most areas promoted growth of winter grains and vegetables. Unlike most of the region, cool, dry conditions prevailed in Florida. Temperatures dropped below freezing in the central part of the State but the citrus-growing area avoided freeze damage. Persistent stormy weather occurred in the Southwest, causing repeated flooding in southern California and some fieldwork delays in citrus groves and vegetable fields. Farther east, however, the precipitation was generally beneficial, increasing soil moisture and recharging reservoirs in the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Dry conditions prevailed in the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, particularly in the interior crop-producing areas. Snow cover in the region remained well below normal throughout the month, leaving most of the winter wheat crop exposed. Temperatures averaged slightly above normal for the month but dropped to as low as 10 degrees Fahrenheit around midmonth. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2004 is estimated at 29.3 million tons, unchanged from last month but 13 percent below 2003. Area harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed for the 2004 crop year, at 952,100 acres, is 4 percent less than last year's harvested area. Yield is forecast at 30.8 tons per acre, the same as February but 3.3 tons below the 2003 crop. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from January. Though harvest was still ongoing in Florida at month's end, estimates of acreage, yield, and production are unchanged from February's forecast. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.28 million pounds for February, 10 percent lower than last month and 18 percent less than a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,250 acres, virtually unchanged from last month but 2 percent higher than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,410 acres, unchanged from last month but 5 percent higher than February 2004. The weather conditions were variable during February with a mix of showers and sunny periods. Cooler temperatures and shorter days have slowed crop progress. Soil moisture in non-irrigated orchards has been irregular but adequate. The erratic precipitation pattern is a contributing factor to February's reduced production. Grapefruit: The U.S. grapefruit forecast is 985,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but 54 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's grapefruit forecast, at 13.0 million boxes (553,000 tons), is unchanged from February but 68 percent below last season's final utilization. If realized, this will be the lowest grapefruit utilization since the 1935-36 season. The white grapefruit forecast is 3.00 million boxes (128,000 tons), unchanged from February but 81 percent below last season. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 10.0 million boxes (425,000 tons), remains unchanged from February 1 but 60 percent below last season's final utilization. Results of the row count survey conducted on March 1-2, in conjunction with utilization through that time, is the primary indicator for the March grapefruit forecast. Results of the size and drop surveys conducted during February indicate projected size is larger and the drop rate is higher for all grapefruit varieties. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried forward from February. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast, at 1.50 million boxes (68,000 tons), is up 7 percent from February 1 and 50 percent more than last season's utilized production. The increase is based primarily on row count data and estimated utilization. Tangerines: The 2004-05 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is 340,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but 22 percent below last season's final utilization of 435,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop, at 4.50 million boxes (214,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 31 percent below last season's utilization of 6.50 million boxes. Harvest of Florida's Fallglo tangerines is complete. Sunburst harvest continues. The Honey variety fruit drop rate during February increased 14 percentage points from 53 percent to 67 percent. Although not the highest tangerine drop rate on record, this year's drop rate is higher than nine of the last ten seasons. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from February. Temples: Florida's Temple forecast is 700,000 boxes (32,000 tons) for the 2004-05 season, unchanged from February but 50 percent below last season's final utilization of 1.40 million boxes. Just over 45 percent of the rows have been picked. Florida Citrus: Florida's weather in the citrus areas during February was beneficial with cool nighttime temperatures and moderate to warm days. Several cold fronts passed through the State with temperatures in the upper 30's to low 40's on several mornings. Daytime highs reached to the low 80's on several days. There was no frost reported during the month. Very little rainfall occurred during the first three weeks of February. However, a slow moving cold front during the last weekend of the month dropped much needed rain over the entire citrus producing area. Some coastal areas received over 5 inches of precipitation, while interior areas generally received over 2 inches. Citrus trees in all areas are in good to excellent condition in spite of the relatively dry weather of the past several months. New growth was reported about mid-month in some southern locations and statewide by the end of the month. Some early orange varieties in the southern groves are showing small amounts of open bloom. Later blooming varieties, like tangerines, are starting to show buds forming. Upper interior and central area groves are entering the bloom cycle with swelling buds just beginning to show. Early-midseason weekly harvest is declining as the season nears completion. Navel orange harvest was nearly complete by the first of the month. Valencia oranges are beginning to be harvested, primarily for fresh shipments. Grapefruit harvest for fresh shipments increased during the month with harvest for processing increasing near the end of the month. Early variety tangerine harvest is almost complete and Honey tangerine harvest is well under way. Tangelo harvest is nearly complete and Temple harvest for processing usage is heavy. California Citrus: Growers were actively applying herbicides and fungicides to citrus groves during February. However, rain the last half of the month caused delays and cancellations in field work. Harvesting of navel oranges continued but pack-outs remained low during February due to rind decay, peel miner, and end splits. Lemon harvesting in the Desert region came to a close but continued in the Central Valley and South Coastal area. Satsumas and Clementines were harvested in the San Joaquin Valley. Fairchild and Minneola tangerines and Rio Red grapefruit were harvested from the Desert region. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Warm weather during the first half of February prompted blooming to start in almond, apricot, peach, plum, cherry, and nectarine orchards across the State. Early variety peach trees started leafing out. The bloom prompted growers to begin applying blossom sprays to fruit and nut orchards. Pruning, shredding, and weed removal activities also continued. Blossom thinning to increase fruit marketability, and to reduce the biennial bearing tendency in some varieties, was also underway in a few plum orchards. Rain showers late in the month delayed field work for some growers, as they continued to apply pesticides and prepare open land for new plantings. Bees were placed in almond orchards to aid in pollination but the rainy weather resulted in unfavorable pollinating conditions. Cultural activities, including pruning, tying canes, repairing trellis wire, and replacing end posts were completed in many grape vineyards. Buds were beginning to swell by month's end in San Joaquin Valley's vineyards and bud break was noted in the Sanger district. Strawberry plants in the San Joaquin Valley continued to progress normally and blueberry bushes were blooming. Avocado harvest continued but was delayed by the rain. Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 3.2 percent. However, if you exclude the five freeze seasons, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.0 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.2 percent, or 3.0 percent excluding freeze seasons. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.6 percent, or 5.3 percent excluding freeze seasons. Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 239,000 tons (226,000 tons, excluding freezes), ranging from 8,000 tons to 713,000 tons (8,000 tons to 713,000 tons, excluding freezes). The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 6 times and above 9 times, excluding freeze seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye(202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Dennis Koong - Hay, Oats, Sorghum(202) 720-7688 Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas(202) 720-3250 Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Rich Holcomb - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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