Cr Pr 2-2 (4-05) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 8, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Crop Production call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Down 2 Percent The U.S. all orange April 1 forecast for the 2004-05 season is 9.19 million tons, down 2 percent from the March 1 forecast and 29 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast, at 151 million boxes (6.80 million tons), is down 1 percent from the previous forecast and 38 percent below the previous season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 79.2 million boxes (3.56 million tons), down 2 percent from last month and 37 percent below the previous season. Harvest of the early and midseason varieties is almost complete with the row count survey conducted March 30-31 showing 97 percent of the rows harvested. Florida's Valencia forecast is 72.0 million boxes (3.24 million tons), unchanged from the March forecast but 38 percent below last season's final utilization. Most citrus trees in Florida groves are in excellent condition and showing new growth. Citrus trees were in full bloom or approaching the peak bloom by the end of the March. However, trees damaged severely by the hurricanes are showing some die back of small limbs. California's all orange forecast, at 61.0 million boxes (2.29 million tons), is down 5 percent from the January forecast but 17 percent above the previous season. California's navel orange forecast, at 43.0 million boxes (1.61 million tons), is down 2 percent from the previous forecast but 13 percent above last season. Harvesting of navel oranges was active throughout March, although at a slow pace due to continued rainfall. Despite the heavy precipitation, good fruit quality is reported. The Valencia forecast, at 18.0 million boxes (675,000 tons), is down 10 percent from the previous forecast but up 29 percent from last season. Harvesting of the Valencia crop is well underway with no major problems reported. However, bearing acreage reductions continue in both the Central Valley and southern areas. Fruit quality is good in both districts. Most of the Central Valley Valencia crop is being packed for export. The Texas all orange forecast is 1.98 million boxes (84,000 tons), up 13 percent from the January 1 forecast and 20 percent more than last season's utilized production. Texas citrus farmers report an excellent year with no major diseases affecting the crop. High demand for citrus fruit continues due to Florida's limited citrus supply this season. Arizona's all orange utilization forecast, at 430,000 boxes (16,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 9 percent below the 2003-04 season. Arizona's navel orange harvest is complete, while picking of Valencia oranges is behind schedule. Arizona's citrus groves are reported to be in good condition. Good fruit quality is also reported. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2004-05 season, at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, is unchanged from last month. The early-midseason portion is final at 1.53 gallons per box. The Valencia portion remains at 1.66 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume that the processing relationship this year will be similar to those of the past several years. This report was approved on April 8, 2005. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Rich Allen Contents Page Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . . 4 Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . . 4 Tangerines. . . . . . . . . . 4 Temples . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops Potatoes. . . . . . . . . . . 5 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . .13 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . 6 Information Contacts . . . . . .18 Reliability of Production Data in this Report . . . . .17 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . .12 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . .13 Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2002-2003, 2003-2004 and Forecasted April 1, 2005 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2004-05 : 2002-03 : 2003-04 : 2004-05 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 3/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 4/ : AZ : 200 300 240 8 12 9 CA : 42,000 38,000 43,000 1,575 1,426 1,613 FL : 112,000 126,000 79,200 5,040 5,670 3,564 TX : 1,350 1,420 1,750 57 60 74 US : 155,550 165,720 124,190 6,680 7,168 5,260 Valencia : AZ : 270 170 190 10 6 7 CA : 20,000 14,000 18,000 751 526 675 FL : 91,000 116,000 72,000 4,095 5,220 3,240 TX : 220 230 230 9 10 10 US : 111,490 130,400 90,420 4,865 5,762 3,932 All : AZ : 470 470 430 18 18 16 CA : 62,000 52,000 61,000 2,326 1,952 2,288 FL : 203,000 242,000 151,200 9,135 10,890 6,804 TX : 1,570 1,650 1,980 66 70 84 US : 267,040 296,120 214,610 11,545 12,930 9,192 Temples : FL : 1,300 1,400 650 59 63 29 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 16,200 15,900 3,500 689 675 149 Colored Seedless : FL : 22,500 25,000 9,500 957 1,063 404 All : AZ : 130 140 160 4 5 5 CA : 5,600 5,400 5,400 187 181 181 FL : 38,700 40,900 13,000 1,646 1,738 553 TX : 5,650 5,700 6,500 226 228 260 US : 50,080 52,140 25,060 2,063 2,152 999 Tangerines : AZ 6/ : 430 690 400 16 25 15 CA 6/ : 2,800 2,700 3,000 105 101 113 FL : 5,500 6,500 4,450 261 309 211 US : 8,730 9,890 7,850 382 435 339 Lemons : AZ : 3,000 3,000 2,400 114 114 91 CA : 24,000 18,000 19,500 912 684 741 US : 27,000 21,000 21,900 1,026 798 832 Tangelos : FL : 2,350 1,000 1,550 105 45 70 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ 2003-04 open for revision but none made. 3/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos & Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 5/ Includes seedy. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2003-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :---------------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------ State : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 :2004 :2005 : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Acres -------- -- Cwt -- ----- 1,000 Cwt ---- : Winter : CA : 13.0 14.0 13.0 14.0 250 250 2,635 3,250 3,500 FL : 5.7 6.0 5.5 5.8 285 270 1,392 1,568 1,566 : Total : 18.7 20.0 18.5 19.8 260 256 4,027 4,818 5,066 : Spring : AZ : 6.2 4.0 6.2 4.0 285 280 2,090 1,767 1,120 CA : 17.5 13.8 17.5 13.8 475 390 8,360 8,313 5,382 FL : 24.8 23.6 24.5 23.2 313 302 8,008 7,678 7,014 Hastings : 18.2 17.3 18.0 17.0 320 305 5,684 5,760 5,185 Other FL : 6.6 6.3 6.5 6.2 295 295 2,324 1,918 1,829 NC : 17.0 14.0 13.5 13.0 200 190 2,975 2,700 2,470 TX : 11.0 9.5 10.5 9.1 210 210 3,000 2,205 1,911 : Total : 76.5 64.9 72.2 63.1 314 284 24,433 22,663 17,897 : Summer 1/ : AL : 2.3 1.3 175 333 228 CA : 7.0 7.0 350 2,772 2,450 CO : 5.9 5.8 365 2,304 2,117 DE : 3.3 3.1 260 864 806 IL : 5.0 4.8 415 2,196 1,992 KS : 3.5 3.4 400 1,026 1,360 MD : 4.7 4.6 260 1,104 1,196 MO : 6.9 6.2 310 1,882 1,922 NJ : 2.3 2.2 270 675 594 NM 2/ : 1.2 1.0 340 532 340 TX : 10.4 9.6 440 3,528 4,224 VA : 6.0 5.0 240 1,550 1,200 : Total : 58.5 54.0 341 18,766 18,429 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Feb : 2,200 2,250 1,345 1,410 2,775 2,280 Mar : 2,110 2,490 1,160 1,435 2,815 2,310 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,527.0 3,974.0 4,021.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 80,930.0 81,413.0 73,632.0 Corn for Silage : 6,103.0 Hay, All : 61,916.0 62,940.0 Alfalfa : 21,707.0 All Other : 40,209.0 Oats : 4,085.0 4,267.0 1,792.0 Proso Millet : 710.0 595.0 Rice : 3,347.0 3,358.0 3,325.0 Rye : 1,380.0 320.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 7,486.0 7,400.0 6,517.0 Sorghum for Silage : 352.0 Wheat, All : 59,674.0 58,592.0 49,999.0 Winter : 43,350.0 41,613.0 34,462.0 Durum : 2,561.0 2,608.0 2,363.0 Other Spring : 13,763.0 14,371.0 13,174.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 865.0 1,047.0 828.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 523.0 919.0 516.0 Mustard Seed : 73.0 68.7 Peanuts : 1,430.0 1,597.0 1,394.0 Rapeseed : 8.7 7.8 Safflower : 175.0 159.0 Soybeans for Beans : 75,208.0 73,910.0 73,958.0 Sunflower : 1,873.0 2,750.0 1,711.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 13,658.6 13,815.0 13,057.0 Upland : 13,409.0 13,540.0 12,809.0 Amer-Pima : 249.6 275.0 248.0 Sugarbeets : 1,346.0 1,299.0 1,306.7 Sugarcane : 952.1 Tobacco : 409.1 319.9 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 30.5 21.5 Dry Edible Beans : 1,354.3 1,663.5 1,219.3 Dry Edible Peas : 530.0 507.8 Lentils : 345.0 329.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 5.8 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.2 Hops : 27.7 Peppermint Oil : 77.7 Potatoes, All : 1,193.4 1,167.5 Winter : 18.7 20.0 18.5 19.8 Spring : 76.5 64.9 72.2 63.1 Summer : 58.5 54.0 Fall : 1,039.7 1,022.8 Spearmint Oil : 15.1 Sweet Potatoes : 97.4 94.9 93.3 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Unit :------------------------------------------- : : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley : Bu : 69.4 279,253 Corn for Grain : " : 160.4 11,807,217 Corn for Silage : Ton : 17.6 107,336 Hay, All : " : 2.55 157,774 Alfalfa : " : 3.47 75,383 All Other : " : 2.05 82,391 Oats : Bu : 64.7 115,935 Proso Millet : " : 25.3 15,065 Rice 2/ : Cwt : 6,942 230,818 Rye : Bu : 26.9 8,615 Sorghum for Grain : " : 69.8 454,899 Sorghum for Silage : Ton : 13.5 4,763 Wheat, All : Bu : 43.2 2,158,245 Winter : " : 43.5 1,499,434 Durum : " : 38.0 89,893 Other Spring : " : 43.2 568,918 : : Oilseeds : : Canola : Lb : 1,618 1,339,530 Cottonseed 3/ : Ton : 8,411.0 Flaxseed : Bu : 20.3 10,471 Mustard Seed : Lb : 819 56,290 Peanuts : " : 3,057 4,261,700 Rapeseed : " : 1,394 10,875 Safflower : " : 1,105 175,765 Soybeans for Beans : Bu : 42.5 3,140,996 Sunflower : Lb : 1,197 2,047,863 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ : Bale: 846 23,006.0 Upland 2/ : " : 835 22,270.0 Amer-Pima 2/ : " : 1,425 736.0 Sugarbeets : Ton : 22.9 29,932 Sugarcane : " : 30.8 29,295 Tobacco : Lb : 2,159 883,171 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ : Cwt : 1,228 264 Dry Edible Beans 2/ : " : 1,460 17,799 Dry Edible Peas 2/ : " : 2,249 11,419 Lentils 2/ : " : 1,271 4,182 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : " : 899 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) : Lb : 1,220 7,100 Ginger Root (HI) : " : 40,000 6,000 Hops : " : 1,990 55,203.9 Peppermint Oil : " : 92 7,146 Potatoes, All : Cwt : 391 455,933 Winter : " : 260 256 4,818 5,066 Spring : " : 314 284 22,663 17,897 Summer : " : 341 18,429 Fall : " : 401 410,023 Spearmint Oil : Lb : 116 1,746 Sweet Potatoes : Cwt : 176 16,399 Taro (HI) 3/ : Lb : 5,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Unit :-------------------------------------------- : : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Ton : 2,063 2,152 999 Lemons : " : 1,026 798 832 Oranges : " : 11,545 12,930 9,192 Tangelos (FL) : " : 105 45 70 Tangerines : " : 382 435 339 Temples (FL) : " : 59 63 29 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 8,713.1 10,078.3 Apricots : Ton : 97.6 100.7 Bananas (HI) 3/ : Lb : 22,500.0 Grapes : Ton : 6,552.5 5,972.5 Olives (CA) : " : 118.0 104.0 Papayas (HI) : Lb : 42,600.0 35,500.0 Peaches : Ton : 1,259.5 1,279.1 Pears : Ton : 928.1 893.3 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 181.0 49.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 16.3 24.9 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lb : 1,040,000 1,020,000 Hazelnuts (OR) : Ton : 37.9 37.0 Pecans : Lb : 282,100 181,000 Walnuts (CA) : Ton : 326.0 325.0 Maple Syrup : Gal : 1,260 1,507 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2/ Production years are 2002-2003, 2003-2004, and 2004-2005. 3/ 2004 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,832,030 1,608,240 1,627,260 Corn for Grain 2/ :32,751,560 32,947,030 29,798,130 Corn for Silage : 2,469,820 Hay, All 3/ : 25,056,790 25,471,190 Alfalfa : 8,784,610 All Other : 16,272,180 Oats : 1,653,160 1,726,810 725,200 Proso Millet : 287,330 240,790 Rice : 1,354,500 1,358,950 1,345,590 Rye : 558,470 129,500 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,029,510 2,994,710 2,637,360 Sorghum for Silage : 142,450 Wheat, All 3/ :24,149,470 23,711,600 20,234,100 Winter :17,543,310 16,840,360 13,946,430 Durum : 1,036,410 1,055,430 956,280 Other Spring : 5,569,750 5,815,800 5,331,390 : Oilseeds : Canola : 350,060 423,710 335,080 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 211,650 371,910 208,820 Mustard Seed : 29,540 27,800 Peanuts : 578,710 646,290 564,140 Rapeseed : 3,520 3,160 Safflower : 70,820 64,350 Soybeans for Beans :30,435,930 29,910,640 29,930,060 Sunflower : 757,980 1,112,900 692,420 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,527,500 5,590,790 5,284,040 Upland : 5,426,490 5,479,500 5,183,670 Amer-Pima : 101,010 111,290 100,360 Sugarbeets : 544,710 525,690 528,810 Sugarcane : 385,310 Tobacco : 165,540 129,440 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 12,340 8,700 Dry Edible Beans : 548,070 673,200 493,440 Dry Edible Peas : 214,490 205,500 Lentils : 139,620 133,140 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,350 Ginger Root (HI) : 60 Hops : 11,230 Peppermint Oil : 31,440 Potatoes, All 3/ : 482,960 472,480 Winter : 7,570 8,090 7,490 8,010 Spring : 30,960 26,260 29,220 25,540 Summer : 23,670 21,850 Fall : 420,760 413,920 Spearmint Oil : 6,110 Sweet Potatoes : 39,420 38,410 37,760 Taro (HI) 4/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.74 6,080,020 Corn for Grain : 10.06 299,917,130 Corn for Silage : 39.43 97,373,580 Hay, All 2/ : 5.71 143,130,170 Alfalfa : 7.78 68,386,310 All Other : 4.59 74,743,860 Oats : 2.32 1,682,790 Proso Millet : 1.42 341,670 Rice : 7.78 10,469,730 Rye : 1.69 218,830 Sorghum for Grain : 4.38 11,554,970 Sorghum for Silage : 30.33 4,320,920 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.90 58,737,800 Winter : 2.93 40,807,910 Durum : 2.56 2,446,490 Other Spring : 2.90 15,483,410 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.81 607,600 Cottonseed 3/ : 7,630,330 Flaxseed : 1.27 265,980 Mustard Seed : 0.92 25,530 Peanuts : 3.43 1,933,070 Rapeseed : 1.56 4,930 Safflower : 1.24 79,730 Soybeans for Beans : 2.86 85,483,900 Sunflower : 1.34 928,900 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.95 5,008,970 Upland : 0.94 4,848,720 Amer-Pima : 1.60 160,250 Sugarbeets : 51.35 27,153,850 Sugarcane : 68.97 26,575,980 Tobacco : 2.42 400,600 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.38 11,970 Dry Edible Beans : 1.64 807,350 Dry Edible Peas : 2.52 517,960 Lentils : 1.42 189,690 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 40,780 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.37 3,220 Ginger Root (HI) : 44.83 2,720 Hops : 2.23 25,040 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,240 Potatoes, All 2/ : 43.77 20,680,770 Winter : 29.19 28.68 218,540 229,790 Spring : 35.18 31.79 1,027,980 811,790 Summer : 38.25 835,930 Fall : 44.93 18,598,330 Spearmint Oil : 0.13 790 Sweet Potatoes : 19.70 743,850 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,360 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2003-2005 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,871,520 1,952,260 906,280 Lemons : 930,770 723,930 754,780 Oranges : 10,473,450 11,729,900 8,338,840 Tangelos (FL) : 95,250 40,820 63,500 Tangerines : 346,540 394,630 307,540 Temples (FL) : 53,520 57,150 26,310 : Noncitrus : Apples : 3,952,200 4,571,440 Apricots : 88,520 91,380 Bananas (HI) 3/ : 10,210 Grapes : 5,944,360 5,418,160 Olives (CA) : 107,050 94,350 Papayas (HI) : 19,320 16,100 Peaches : 1,142,600 1,160,390 Pears : 841,910 810,350 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 164,200 44,450 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,790 22,590 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 471,740 462,660 Hazelnuts (OR) : 34,380 33,570 Pecans : 127,960 82,100 Walnuts (CA) : 295,740 294,840 Maple Syrup : 6,300 7,530 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2004-05 season. 2/ Production years are 2002-03, 2003-04, and 2004-05. 3/ 2004 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. March Weather Summary The mid-March arrival of much-needed precipitation improved prospects for Northwestern pastures and winter grains, but provided only limited relief from long-term, hydrological drought. Farther south, mid- to late-March precipitation maintained abundant high-elevation snow packs from the Sierra Nevada eastward to the Four Corners States, but slowed spring fieldwork in California. Meanwhile, heavy snow blanketed the northern High Plains, providing highly beneficial moisture for pastures and winter wheat, despite underlying subsoil moisture shortages. Significant precipitation also dampened portions of the central Plains, especially across central Nebraska. In contrast, most of Oklahoma and adjacent areas experienced a March drying trend, promoting fieldwork but reducing topsoil moisture reserves. Drier-than-normal weather also prevailed in much of the Midwest, allowing spring planting preparations to begin in many areas and helping to reduce pockets of lingering wetness across the southern and eastern Corn Belt. Elsewhere, frequent storminess affected the South and East. The first half of the month featured three major Northeastern snowstorms, while a series of disturbances crossed the South. Rainfall, initially beneficial across the Southeast, began to hamper planting operations and other spring fieldwork late in the month. In the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern States, a pair of late-month storms produced heavy rain, combining with melting snow to cause local flooding and setting the stage for more widespread flooding in early April. Cold weather prevailed across the eastern half of the nation during the first 3 weeks of March, followed by a late-month warming trend. Monthly temperatures generally ranged from 2 to 6 degrees F below normal in the Great Lakes and Northeastern States. In contrast, early-month warmth in the West yielded to stormy, cooler weather thereafter. Nevertheless, March readings averaged as much as 5 degrees F above normal across the northern Plains and the Northwest. March Crop Summary Heavy precipitation fell along the Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf Coasts. Temperatures were above normal in the northern and central Great Plains, northern Rocky Mountains, Great Basin, and along the Pacific Coast, while below-normal temperatures prevailed elsewhere. Persistent precipitation hindered fieldwork in the Ohio Valley and southern Corn Belt. Growers in these areas were concerned about the effects of soil heaving on winter wheat acreage. In other areas of the Corn Belt, precipitation and temperatures were mostly below normal. However, soil moisture in the region was adequate to surplus. Field preparation was active under mostly favorable conditions. In the northern Great Plains, dry conditions continued to cause soil moisture concerns. Though temperatures averaged above normal for the month, the lack of snow cover left winter wheat exposed to brief periods of bitterly cold temperatures. Precipitation levels were near normal in the central Great Plains, with above-normal temperatures. In the southern Great Plains, planting of summer crops was active, with some weather delays. In the Pacific Northwest, periods of heavy rainfall helped to increase soil moisture levels. However, after dry conditions prevailed throughout most of the winter, more rainfall is needed to replenish soil moisture to adequate levels. Upper elevation snowpacks remained well below normal, leaving little prospects for meltwater in the spring and summer. Though conditions in California were considerably drier than in February, many growers continued to experience fieldwork delays. Frequent rainfall in the Southeast severely hampered field preparation and planting. Precipitation was lighter in the Delta, but enough to maintain soggy conditions from heavy rainfall in February and delay planting. In the middle and upper Atlantic Coast States, heavy precipitation caused local flooding. Grapefruit: The U.S. grapefruit forecast is 999,000 tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast but 54 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's grapefruit forecast, at 13.0 million boxes (553,000 tons), is unchanged from March but 68 percent below last season's final utilization. If realized, this will be the lowest grapefruit utilization since the 1935-36 season. The white grapefruit forecast is 3.50 million boxes (149,000 tons), up 17 percent from March but 78 percent below last season. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 9.50 million boxes (404,000 tons), is down 5 percent from March 1 and 62 percent below last season's final utilization. Results of the row count survey conducted on March 30-31, in conjunction with utilization through that time, are the primary indicators for the April grapefruit forecast. Results of the size and drop surveys conducted during March indicate a high drop rate for all grapefruit varieties. California's grapefruit forecast, at 5.40 million boxes (181,000 tons), is up 2 percent from the previous forecast but unchanged from last season's final utilization. Pummelos and Oroblanco grapefruit varieties are being harvested in the Central Valley, while the Rio Red variety continues to be harvested in the Coachella Valley. Texture is smooth for all varieties with good quality. The Texas grapefruit forecast is 6.50 million boxes (260,000 tons), 5 percent above the previous forecast and 14 percent higher than last season. Favorable weather conditions, combined with a good market for grapefruit this season, are contributing factors to Texas' grapefruit utilized production increase. Arizona's grapefruit forecast, at 160,000 boxes (5,000 tons), is down 11 percent from March but is 14 percent above last season's final utilization. Harvest is expected to pick up once Florida and Texas are complete. Good fruit quality is being reported in both Maricopa and Yuma counties. Tangerines: The 2004-05 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is 339,000 tons, virtually unchanged from the previous forecast but 22 percent below last season's final utilization of 435,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop, at 4.45 million boxes (211,000 tons), is down 1 percent from the previous forecast and 32 percent below last season's utilization of 6.50 million boxes. Harvest of Florida's Fallglo tangerines is complete. A small decrease in early tangerines ocurred because harvest of the Sunburst variety was smaller than expected. The Honey variety drop rate for April is at 67 percent with 36 percent of the rows remaining to be harvested. California's forecast of tangerine production, at 3.00 million boxes (113,000 tons), is up 3 percent from the January 1 forecast and 11 percent above last season's utilized production. Fruit quality is reported as very good to excellent. California's tangerine harvest is progressing well. The Arizona tangerine forecast, at 400,000 boxes (15,000 tons), is down 11 percent from the previous forecast and 42 percent below last season. A light crop with small fruit size, combined with quality problems and a decreased demand for the Fairchild tangerine variety, are contributing to the decrease in utilized production. Lemons: The forecast for the 2004-05 U.S. lemon crop, at 832,000 tons, is unchanged from the January 1 forecast but up 4 percent from last season. California production is forecast at 19.5 million boxes (741,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 8 percent above the 2003-04 season. Harvest in the South Coastal area is progressing well, while it is complete in the Desert region and winding down in the Central Valley. Fruit quality is reported as very good and export demand is gradually increasing. Arizona's 2004-05 lemon forecast, at 2.40 million boxes (91,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 20 percent below the previous season. This is a relatively light crop compared to the previous season. Extremely hot temperatures during the bloom in March 2004 and lack of precipitation during August negatively impacted the crop. Arizona's lemon harvest is complete for this year. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast, at 1.55 million boxes (70,000 tons), is up 3 percent from March 1 and 55 percent more than last season's utilized production. Tangelo harvest is virtually complete and the increase is based primarily on certified utilization. Temples: Florida's Temple forecast is 650,000 boxes (29,000 tons) for the 2004-05 season, down 7 percent from March and 54 percent below last season's final utilization of 1.40 million boxes. Temple harvest is virtually complete. If attained, this crop will be the smallest since the 1953-54 season. Florida Citrus: Florida's weather in the citrus areas during March brought slightly higher amounts of rainfall than normal with cool nighttime temperatures and moderate to warm days. Several cold fronts passed through the State bringing overnight temperatures into the upper 40's in some northern locations. Daytime highs reached the low 80's some days with mostly clear skies. The cold fronts brought varying amounts of rainfall to most citrus growing areas each week of the month. The last part of the month brought rainfall amounts over four inches in some upper interior and west coast areas and varying amounts in east coast areas. The last of the month also brought windy weather with clear skies. Most citrus trees in all areas are in excellent condition following the favorable weather of the past several months. Hurricane damaged trees are showing new growth and some bloom. Severely damaged trees are showing some die back of small limbs. By late-month, upper interior and coastal area orange trees were in full bloom with grapefruit slightly later. Lower interior areas were also near full bloom by the end of the month. Early-midseason orange harvest is mostly over as the season nears completion. Valencia oranges are beginning to be harvested with good demand reported for fresh shipments and most processing fruit going into chilled juice. Weekly harvest by the last of the month was up to five million boxes on the hurricane reduced crop. Grapefruit harvest for fresh shipments peaked during the month with excellent quality reported. Grapefruit harvest for processing was also high for the limited amount of fruit available. Honey tangerine harvest is strong with good demand reported. Temple and tangelo harvests are complete for the season. Arizona Citrus: Citrus growers in Yuma County reported nearly all of the navel oranges, lemons, and tangerines have been harvested at this time. Nearly 5 percent of the Valencia oranges and 15 percent of the grapefruit have also been harvested. Harvest of Valencia oranges is slightly behind schedule. In Maricopa County, nearly all of the navel oranges, lemons, and tangerines have been harvested. Grapefruit are 15 percent harvested and Valencia oranges are 25 percent harvested at this time. Citrus groves are in good condition. Good fruit quality is reported. Texas Citrus: Water supplies have remained adequate throughout harvest season. Harvest activities were delayed by frequent precipitation in some citrus areas. Grapefruit producers have had an outstanding year with no major disease problems reported for grapefruit groves. As national grapefruit supplies dwindle, Texas growers have been able to take advantage of export markets. Grapefruit harvest is 80 percent complete. Damage from the late December freeze and snow became more evident, impacting the Valencia crop most severely. There are approximately six weeks left of the Valencia harvest season with about 60 percent of the crop remaining to be harvested. Harvest of navel oranges is complete as of April 1. California Citrus: Buds were swelling in many orange groves by month's end, and topping and hedging activities were underway. Periods of rain during the month caused some delays and cancellations in harvesting of citrus fruit. Harvesting of Navel oranges continued throughout the month, but with declining quality and pack-outs. Valencia oranges were picked as maturity tests allowed. Lemons were harvested in many locations. More volume, however, shifted to the South Coastal region as the lemon harvest neared completion in the Central Valley. OroBlanco and MeloGold variety grapefruit were picked in the Central Valley. Mandarins, tangelos, and tangerines were also picked and packed. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Periods of rainy weather continued to delay field work and development of fruit and nut crops during March. The continued wet weather triggered an increase in fungicide use in all tree fruit orchards and grape vineyards. The increased precipitation also created unfavorable conditions for bees to pollinate in almond and plum orchards, resulting in lighter than anticipated fruit set. A period of above normal temperatures in the middle of the month promoted bloom and stimulated growth in many pear and cherry orchards in northern areas of the State. By month's end, most tree fruit orchards were leafing out and blooms were rapidly disappearing. Early varieties of apricots and cherries were being thinned as fruit began to develop. Apple orchards were blooming across the State and early varieties began developing fruit by the end of the month. Kiwifruit vines began pushing foliar growth, green shoots were elongating and developing fruit in persimmon orchards, and strawberry plants were blooming and developing well in the San Joaquin Valley. Bees were removed from almond orchards by month's end as bloom was complete. Almond trees were leafed out and crews in some areas were propping up branches. Catkins (walnut male inflorescences) were elongating in walnut orchards, prompting walnut growers to apply preventive sprays for blight. Growers continued to prune, shred, and remove weeds in nut orchards as weather conditions permitted. Canes and shoots were growing rapidly in grape vineyards and immature clusters began appearing. Growers also applied pesticides to control vine mealybug and cutworms, and prepared the ground for new plantings. Avocado harvesting continued but the rains caused delays. Pruning and shredding activities in olive orchards continued. Winter Potatoes: The 2005 U.S. winter potato crop in California and Florida combined is forecast at 5.07 million cwt, 9 percent above the January forecast and 5 percent more than last year. Area for harvest, at 19,800 acres, is unchanged from January but up 7 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 256 cwt per acre is up 21 cwt from January but 4 cwt below a year ago. California's average yield is forecast at 250 cwt per acre, 25 cwt per acre above the January forecast. The cool, wet weather earlier in the season was not as damaging as previously expected. Yields in Florida are forecasted at 270 cwt per acre, 10 cwt per acre above the January forecast. Growing conditions on Florida's Southern Peninsula have been good for potatoes. Spring Potatoes: Spring production in 2005 is forecast at 17.9 million cwt, down 21 percent from last year. Area for harvest is forecast at 63,100 acres, 13 percent below 2004. The average yield is forecast at 284 cwt per acre, down 30 cwt from a year ago. Spring potato production in Florida is forecast at 7.01 million cwt, down 9 percent from a year ago. Florida's spring harvested acreage decreased 5 percent and average yield is expected to be 11 cwt per acre below last year. Mild conditions in February and March helped crop development. Harvest is expected to start in the Hastings area during early April. North Carolina's spring potato crop is forecast at 2.47 million cwt, down 9 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to be down 4 percent from a year ago due to fewer contract acres for processing. Average yield is expected to decrease 10 cwt per acre from a year ago. California's spring potato production forecast, at 5.38 million cwt, is 35 percent below last year. Area for harvest is down 21 percent and yield is down 85 cwt per acre from a year ago. Generally poor market conditions prompted growers to reduce table stock acreage. Also, a reduction in contracted acres for chips is due to a plant closure. Wet conditions have some growers expecting a late harvest. Texas spring potato production is forecast at 1.91 million cwt, 13 percent below last season. Acreage for harvest is decreased 13 percent but the average yield forecast is unchanged from a year ago. Producers report good growing conditions with near perfect weather. Arizona's production is forecast at 1.12 million cwt, down 37 percent from last year. Growers report a 35 percent decrease in acreage for harvest and expect yield to be down 5 cwt per acre from last year. The reduction in acres is due to a decrease in acres planted for chips. Summer Potatoes, 2004 Revisions: The final estimate of 2004 summer potato crop production is 18.4 million cwt, down 2 percent from both the preliminary estimate in the January Crop Production 2004 Summary and the 2003 crop. Harvested area covered 54,000 acres, down 1 percent from the January estimate and down 8 percent from 2003. The average yield of 341 cwt per acre is down 4 cwt from the January preliminary estimate. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.31 million pounds for March, 1 percent higher than last month but 18 percent less than a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,490 acres, up 11 percent from last month and 18 percent higher than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,435 acres, up 2 percent from last month and 24 percent higher than March 2004. The weather conditions were variable during March with a mix of showers and sunny periods. Production has been relatively low for the past several months due to cooler temperatures and irregular amounts of precipitation. Reliability of April 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. In July and August, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.2 percent. This means that chances are two out of three that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.2 percent. Chances are nine out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.6 percent. Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 183,000 tons, ranging from 1,000 tons to 716,000 tons. The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times. The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye(202) 720-8068 Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526 Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Dennis Koong - Hay, Oats, Sorghum(202) 720-7688 Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas(202) 720-3250 Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Rich Holcomb - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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