Cr Pr 2-2 (2-06) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 9, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Unchanged The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2005-06 season is 9.22 million tons, unchanged from the January forecast but 1 percent above last season's final utilization of 9.11 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 158 million boxes (7.11 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 6 percent from the 2004-05 crop. Early, midseason, and navel varieties are forecast at 80.0 million boxes (3.60 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 1 percent above last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia forecast is 78.0 million boxes (3.51 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 11 percent from last season's final utilization. Estimates of bearing tree numbers used to produce this month's forecasts are unchanged from last month. Current measurements of fruit drop indicate increased droppage for the early-midseason crop, but a lower Valencia drop rate than was forecast last month. January measurements of fruit sizes continue to indicate smaller than average fruit for both the early-midseason and Valencia crops. If realized, the forecasted average Valencia fruit size at harvest will be the smallest since objective measurements began in 1960. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from January. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2005-06 season, at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, is up from last month's 1.55 gallons per box but equal to last season's yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The early-midseason portion is projected to yield 1.52 gallons, up from the 1.46 gallons per box forecast last month but down from 1.53 gallons for the 2004-05 crop. The Valencia yield, at 1.66 gallons, is unchanged from last month but down from the 1.68 gallons last season. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on February 9, 2006. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Tangerines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Temples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Reliability of Production Data in this Report . . 15 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2004-2005 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 385.0 383.0 34.9 32.0 13,437 12,256 HI 2/ : 21.8 22.4 90.8 90.3 1,979 2,023 LA 2/ : 430.0 420.0 23.8 23.0 10,234 9,660 TX 2/ : 42.7 41.0 37.3 37.7 1,593 1,546 : US : 879.5 866.4 31.0 29.4 27,243 25,485 : For Seed : FL : 21.0 19.0 40.2 39.0 844 741 HI 2/ : 1.4 1.5 33.5 36.0 47 54 LA 2/ : 35.0 35.0 23.8 23.0 833 805 TX 2/ : 1.3 2.0 35.0 24.5 46 49 : US : 58.7 57.5 30.2 28.7 1,770 1,649 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 406.0 402.0 35.2 32.3 14,281 12,997 HI 2/ : 23.2 23.9 87.3 86.9 2,026 2,077 LA 2/ : 465.0 455.0 23.8 23.0 11,067 10,465 TX 2/ : 44.0 43.0 37.3 37.1 1,639 1,595 : US : 938.2 923.9 30.9 29.4 29,013 27,134 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2005 Summary." Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Dec : 2,290 1,780 2,105 Jan : 2,245 2,280 1,410 1,785 2,580 2,815 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2003-2004, 2004-2005 and Forecasted February 1, 2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2003-04 : 2004-05 : 2005-06 : 2003-04 : 2004-05 : 2005-06 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early, Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 300 240 250 12 9 9 CA 4/ : 39,500 43,000 42,000 1,481 1,613 1,575 FL : 126,000 79,100 80,000 5,670 3,560 3,600 TX 4/ : 1,420 1,500 1,300 60 64 55 US : 167,220 123,840 123,550 7,223 5,246 5,239 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 170 190 200 6 7 8 CA 4/ : 11,000 18,000 12,000 413 675 450 FL : 116,000 70,500 78,000 5,220 3,173 3,510 TX 4/ : 230 270 230 10 11 10 US : 127,400 88,960 90,430 5,649 3,866 3,978 All : AZ 4/ : 470 430 450 18 16 17 CA 4/ : 50,500 61,000 54,000 1,894 2,288 2,025 FL : 242,000 149,600 158,000 10,890 6,733 7,110 TX 4/ : 1,650 1,770 1,530 70 75 65 US : 294,620 212,800 213,980 12,872 9,112 9,217 Temples : FL : 1,400 650 800 63 29 36 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 15,900 3,400 4,000 675 145 170 Colored Seedless : FL : 25,000 9,400 12,000 1,063 400 510 All : AZ 4/ : 140 140 100 5 5 3 CA 4/ : 5,800 5,800 6,000 194 194 201 FL : 40,900 12,800 16,000 1,738 545 680 TX 4/ : 5,700 6,600 5,100 228 264 204 US : 52,540 25,340 27,200 2,165 1,008 1,088 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 690 400 500 25 15 19 CA 4/ 6/ : 2,200 2,800 3,100 83 105 116 FL : 6,500 4,450 5,200 309 211 247 US : 9,390 7,650 8,800 417 331 382 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,000 2,400 3,800 114 91 144 CA : 18,000 19,000 19,000 684 722 722 US : 21,000 21,400 22,800 798 813 866 Tangelos : FL : 1,000 1,550 1,200 45 70 54 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5/ Includes seedy. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2005-2006 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3,875.0 3,269.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 81,759.0 75,107.0 Corn for Silage : 5,920.0 Hay, All : 61,649.0 Alfalfa : 22,389.0 All Other : 39,260.0 Oats : 4,246.0 1,823.0 Proso Millet : 565.0 515.0 Rice : 3,384.0 3,364.0 Rye : 1,433.0 279.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 6,454.0 5,736.0 Sorghum for Silage : 311.0 Wheat, All : 57,229.0 50,119.0 Winter : 40,433.0 41,367.0 33,794.0 Durum : 2,760.0 2,716.0 Other Spring : 14,036.0 13,609.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,159.0 1,114.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 983.0 955.0 Mustard Seed : 49.0 44.6 Peanuts : 1,657.0 1,629.0 Rapeseed : 2.4 2.0 Safflower : 165.0 160.0 Soybeans for Beans : 72,142.0 71,361.0 Sunflower : 2,709.0 2,610.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 14,195.4 13,702.6 Upland : 13,925.0 13,434.0 Amer-Pima : 270.4 268.6 Sugarbeets : 1,294.8 1,238.9 Sugarcane : 923.9 Tobacco : 298.0 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 42.5 24.5 Dry Edible Beans : 1,659.3 1,562.9 Dry Edible Peas : 808.0 765.9 Lentils : 450.0 439.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.1 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 Hops : 29.5 Peppermint Oil : 76.0 Potatoes, All : 1,107.2 1,084.6 Winter : 20.0 17.7 19.8 17.5 Spring : 68.0 66.7 Summer : 50.6 48.6 Fall : 968.6 949.5 Spearmint Oil : 17.7 Sweet Potatoes : 90.4 87.8 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2005-2006 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 64.8 211,896 Corn for Grain :" : 147.9 11,112,072 Corn for Silage :Tons : 18.0 106,311 Hay, All :" : 2.44 150,590 Alfalfa :" : 3.38 75,771 All Other :" : 1.91 74,819 Oats :Bu : 63.0 114,878 Proso Millet :" : 26.3 13,545 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 6,636 223,235 Rye :Bu : 27.0 7,537 Sorghum for Grain :" : 68.7 393,893 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 13.6 4,218 Wheat, All :Bu : 42.0 2,104,690 Winter :" : 44.4 1,499,129 Durum :" : 37.2 101,105 Other Spring :" : 37.1 504,456 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,419 1,580,985 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 8,501.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 20.6 19,695 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 787 35,114 Peanuts :" : 2,960 4,821,250 Rapeseed :" : 1,500 3,000 Safflower :" : 1,203 192,545 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 43.3 3,086,432 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,540 4,018,355 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 831 23,719.0 Upland 2/ :" : 824 23,064.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,171 655.0 Sugarbeets :Tons : 22.3 27,654 Sugarcane :" : 29.4 27,134 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,147 639,709 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,253 307 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,742 27,222 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,828 14,003 Lentils 2/ :" : 1,176 5,163 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 755 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,050 6,400 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 42,500 5,100 Hops :" : 1,791 52,914.5 Peppermint Oil :" : 92 6,980 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 388 420,879 Winter :" : 247 254 4,892 4,440 Spring :" : 281 18,724 Summer :" : 334 16,237 Fall :" : 401 381,026 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 109 1,933 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 179 15,747 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2004-2006 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :-------------------------------------------- : : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Tons : 2,165 1,008 1,088 Lemons : " : 798 813 866 Oranges : " : 12,872 9,112 9,217 Tangelos (FL) : " : 45 70 54 Tangerines : " : 417 331 382 Temples (FL) : " : 63 29 36 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 10,450.6 9,869.6 Apricots : Tons : 101.1 81.4 Bananas (HI) 3/ : Lbs : 16,500.0 Grapes : Tons : 6,240.0 6,974.9 Olives (CA) : " : 104.0 139.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 35,800.0 32,500.0 Peaches : Tons : 1,307.1 1,182.6 Pears : " : 877.3 812.3 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 49.0 90.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 25.0 8.7 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lbs : 1,005,000 900,000 Hazelnuts (OR) : Tons : 37.5 28.0 Pecans : Lbs : 185,800 259,600 Walnuts (CA) : Tons : 325.0 355.0 Maple Syrup : Gals : 1,507 1,242 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2005-06 season. 2/ Production years are 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006. 3/ 2005 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2005-2006 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,568,170 1,322,930 Corn for Grain 2/ :33,087,050 30,395,050 Corn for Silage : 2,395,760 Hay, All 3/ : 24,948,730 Alfalfa : 9,060,600 All Other : 15,888,130 Oats : 1,718,310 737,750 Proso Millet : 228,650 208,420 Rice : 1,369,470 1,361,380 Rye : 579,920 112,910 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 2,611,870 2,321,300 Sorghum for Silage : 125,860 Wheat, All 3/ :23,160,000 20,282,660 Winter :16,362,830 16,740,810 13,676,090 Durum : 1,116,940 1,099,140 Other Spring : 5,680,230 5,507,430 : Oilseeds : Canola : 469,040 450,820 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 397,810 386,480 Mustard Seed : 19,830 18,050 Peanuts : 670,570 659,240 Rapeseed : 970 810 Safflower : 66,770 64,750 Soybeans for Beans :29,195,150 28,879,080 Sunflower : 1,096,310 1,056,240 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,744,740 5,545,310 Upland : 5,635,310 5,436,610 Amer-Pima : 109,430 108,700 Sugarbeets : 523,990 501,370 Sugarcane : 373,890 Tobacco : 120,610 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 17,200 9,910 Dry Edible Beans : 671,500 632,490 Dry Edible Peas : 326,990 309,950 Lentils : 182,110 177,660 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,470 Ginger Root (HI) : 50 Hops : 11,960 Peppermint Oil : 30,760 Potatoes, All 3/ : 448,070 438,930 Winter : 8,090 7,160 8,010 7,080 Spring : 27,520 26,990 Summer : 20,480 19,670 Fall : 391,980 384,250 Spearmint Oil : 7,160 Sweet Potatoes : 36,580 35,530 Taro (HI) 4/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2005-2006 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.49 4,613,490 Corn for Grain : 9.29 282,259,630 Corn for Silage : 40.26 96,443,720 Hay, All 2/ : 5.48 136,612,950 Alfalfa : 7.59 68,738,290 All Other : 4.27 67,874,660 Oats : 2.26 1,667,450 Proso Millet : 1.47 307,200 Rice : 7.44 10,125,770 Rye : 1.70 191,450 Sorghum for Grain : 4.31 10,005,340 Sorghum for Silage : 30.40 3,826,510 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.82 57,280,270 Winter : 2.98 40,799,610 Durum : 2.50 2,751,630 Other Spring : 2.49 13,729,040 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.59 717,120 Cottonseed 3/ : 7,711,980 Flaxseed : 1.29 500,280 Mustard Seed : 0.88 15,930 Peanuts : 3.32 2,186,880 Rapeseed : 1.68 1,360 Safflower : 1.35 87,340 Soybeans for Beans : 2.91 83,998,910 Sunflower : 1.73 1,822,700 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.93 5,164,200 Upland : 0.92 5,021,590 Amer-Pima : 1.31 142,610 Sugarbeets : 50.04 25,087,290 Sugarcane : 65.84 24,615,550 Tobacco : 2.41 290,170 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.40 13,930 Dry Edible Beans : 1.95 1,234,770 Dry Edible Peas : 2.05 635,170 Lentils : 1.32 234,190 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 34,250 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.18 2,900 Ginger Root (HI) : 47.64 2,310 Hops : 2.01 24,000 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,170 Potatoes, All 2/ : 43.49 19,090,750 Winter : 27.69 28.44 221,900 201,400 Spring : 31.46 849,310 Summer : 37.45 736,500 Fall : 44.98 17,283,050 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 880 Sweet Potatoes : 20.10 714,270 Taro (HI) 3/ : 1,810 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2004-2006 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,964,050 914,440 987,020 Lemons : 723,930 737,540 785,620 Oranges : 11,677,280 8,266,270 8,361,520 Tangelos (FL) : 40,820 63,500 48,990 Tangerines : 378,300 300,280 346,540 Temples (FL) : 57,150 26,310 32,660 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,740,310 4,476,780 Apricots : 91,740 73,800 Bananas (HI) : 7,480 Grapes : 5,660,860 6,327,520 Olives (CA) : 94,350 126,100 Papayas (HI) : 16,240 14,740 Peaches : 1,185,790 1,072,840 Pears : 795,840 736,930 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 44,450 81,650 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 22,680 7,890 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) : 455,860 408,230 Hazelnuts (OR) : 34,020 25,400 Pecans : 84,280 117,750 Walnuts (CA) : 294,840 322,050 Maple Syrup : 7,530 6,210 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2005-06 season. 2/ Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. January Weather Summary January featured a remarkable stretch of sustained warmth virtually nationwide, boosting monthly temperatures nearly 20 degrees F above normal on the northern Plains and generally 8 to 18 degrees F above normal across the remainder of the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Dozens of locations noted their warmest January, breaking records established in 1914 and 1919. Near-normal January readings were confined to southern Florida, parts of California, and the Desert Southwest. The new year began in the midst of a flood event from northern California into parts of the Northwest. Although showery January weather maintained soggy or snowy conditions in the West as far south as central California, the Great Basin, and Utah's Wasatch Range, the region escaped further widespread flooding. In stark contrast, drought intensified under a dry regime in Arizona and New Mexico due to diminishing soil moisture reserves, meager mountain snowpacks, and prospects for below-normal spring and summer runoff. Exceptionally dry conditions also persisted in winter wheat areas on the southern Plains, further stressing pastures and winter grains. The remainder of the Plains also reported mostly below-normal precipitation and diminishing soil moisture reserves. However, the northern and central Plains' wheat continued to benefit from a lack of weather extremes, despite minimal snow cover and a gradual loss of the crop's winter hardiness. Most winter wheat areas of the Midwest experienced a wet January, but mild weather kept fields mostly muddy rather than frozen. Muddy conditions were a concern, however, for some Midwestern livestock, especially from the Ohio Valley to the lower Great Lakes region. Elsewhere, Southern pastures and winter grains from eastern Texas to the Delta benefited from soil moisture improvements, but winter agricultural areas of southern Texas and peninsular Florida remained extremely dry through month's end. In early February, however, heavy showers across Florida's peninsula slowed fieldwork but halted the need for irrigation. January Agricultural Summary Above-normal temperatures prevailed nationwide during the month. Temperatures were particularly mild in the northern Great Plains, where temperatures nearly 20 degrees Fahrenheit above normal depleted protective snow cover, leaving winter wheat exposed to potential cold weather. Dry conditions in the southern Great Plains stressed winter grains, with most of Texas's winter wheat and oat crops rated in very poor condition. Across most of the Corn Belt, moderate precipitation was generally favorable for crops but caused some muddy pastures. Above-normal temperatures threatened to break dormancy in winter wheat, leaving the crop vulnerable to a winter kill if cold weather returns. Encouraged by the warm weather, some growers engaged in pre-plant fieldwork normally done in the Spring. Moderate precipitation in the Delta and Southeast was generally beneficial for small grains and pastures, though mud problems were reported in some pastures and fields. Growers in most areas were preparing land for spring planting, while sugarcane harvest was active throughout the month in Florida. Precipitation was well above normal in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains. Some pastures and fields were completely underwater due to excessive rainfall and swelling of rivers and streams. The moisture was generally beneficial for winter wheat but depleted snow cover, leaving the crop exposed if cold weather returns to the region. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2005 is forecast at 27.1 million tons, 3 percent below the previous forecast, 6 percent below 2004, and the lowest since 1980. Area harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed for the 2005 crop year, at 923,900 acres, is up marginally from the previous forecast but down 2 percent from last year's harvested area. Yield is forecast at 29.4 tons per acre, 0.8 ton below January, 1.5 tons below the 2004 crop, and the lowest since 1933. Florida's yield, at 32.3 tons per acre, is the lowest since 1989 and is down 2.0 tons from last month as harvest progressed and growers were able to more accurately assess the damage caused by Hurricane Wilma. Harvested area, however, was up slightly due to more acreage harvested for seed. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from January. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2005-06 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.09 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 8 percent from last season's final utilization. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 25 percent above last year's hurricane-damaged crop. The white grapefruit utilization forecast, at 4.00 million boxes (170,000 tons), is unchanged from January but 18 percent above last season's utilization. The colored seedless utilization forecast, at 12.0 million boxes (510,000 tons), is also unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 28 percent higher than the 2004-05 season's utilization. The fruit size and drop measurements obtained in January, combined with number of bearing trees and fruit per tree, are the primary indicators used for the February forecast. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried forward from January. Tangerines: The 2005-06 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is 382,000 tons, down 6 percent from the previous forecast but up 15 percent from last season's utilization of 331,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 5.20 million boxes (247,000 tons), down 9 percent from the January forecast but 17 percent higher than last season's 4.45 million boxes. Early tangerine (Fallglo and Sunburst varieties) harvest is almost complete with fewer than 50,000 boxes harvested during each of the past two weeks. Harvest of the later Honey variety tangerine is underway. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from January. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast, at 1.20 million boxes (54,000 tons), is unchanged from the January 1 forecast but down 23 percent from last season's utilized production. Due to higher processing tangelo prices, a more complete harvest is anticipated this season than in recent years. Temples: Florida's Temple forecast for the 2005-06 season is 800,000 boxes (36,000 tons), unchanged from the January forecast but 23 percent above last season's hurricane-reduced final utilization of 650,000 boxes. If realized, this will be the second lowest utilized production behind last season. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.82 million pounds for January, up 34 percent from the previous month and 9 percent more than January 2005. Area in crop totaled 2,280 acres, down less than 1 percent from last month but up 2 percent from last January. Harvested area totaled 1,785 acres, virtually unchanged from last month but 27 percent above a year ago. Dry weather continued into January but a storm brought much needed rain later in the month. Production is still being impacted by reduced fruit set caused by dry weather earlier in the season. Orchards in Puna responded well to the recent rains, with new leaf growth and blossom formation noted. Growers planted papaya trees in Opihikao and Pohoiki but large tracts of previously farmed land still await planting. Young trees in Kalapana have begun to bear fruit. Florida Citrus: Weather during January was generally warm and dry in Florida citrus producing areas. Two-tenths of an inch of rain was recorded in the north and just over one-half inch was recorded in the western coastal citrus region. Most areas recorded at least a few days each week with temperatures in the low 80s. Growers in all areas irrigated and began applying fertilizer and herbicides after harvest. Some growers also hedged and topped trees. Harvest of early and midseason oranges was delayed while some growers waited for maturity and for acid to solid ratios to reach more desirable levels. Grapefruit harvest has been steady since before the beginning of the year, with increasing quantities going to processing during the last couple of weeks. Harvest of Honey tangerines and Temples began with most fruit destined for the fresh market. All major processing plants have opened, with the exception of one that may not open at all this season. California Citrus: Rain and fog during much of the month caused problems with scheduling citrus harvest. Navel orange harvest continued as field conditions allowed but problems with puff and crease increased grade-outs at packinghouses. Lemon harvest gained momentum, and pummelo, mandarin, and tangerine harvests continued. Approximately one-third of the mandarin orange crop in Yuba County was lost from the early-January flooding since growers will not market any fruit that the flood water covered. Blood orange harvest increased. Juice processing plants continued to run at full capacity due to the high volume of grade-outs. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Heavy rains during the first part of January delayed field work in orchards and vineyards across the State. Some orchards experienced light damage from the rains and high winds, mainly in the form of downed trees. Many tree fruit growers have also expressed concern over the mild winter weather. Several areas have not received adequate chill hours and some trees have begun to bloom prematurely. Buds began swelling in many of the early tree fruit varieties by mid-month and the use of dormant sprays and pre-emergent herbicides increased. Vineyards were reported to have crews pruning, tying canes, applying herbicides, and replacing stakes and trellis wires. A few growers continued to replace older vines and trees. Blueberry and raspberry planting began in the San Joaquin Valley. Growers began placing bee hives in almond orchards. Seasonal field work continued in nut orchards as field conditions permitted. Tree losses were reported in several almond orchards due to the wet conditions at the beginning of the month and a few young walnut orchards were severely damaged by flood water in Yuba County. Pruning and brush shredding continued in olive groves. A few olive groves in the Sanger district were harvested for oil. Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 4.3 percent. However, if you exclude the 6 abnormal production years (5 freeze seasons and 1 hurricane season), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.3 percent, or 3.0 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 7.4 percent, or 5.4 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 373,000 tons (308,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 745,000 tons (3,000 tons to 638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Scott Cox - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed(202) 720-9526 Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice(202) 720-7688 Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Travis Thorson - Hay, Oats, Sorghum(202) 690-3234 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas(202) 720-2157 Rich Holcomb - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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Prospering in Rural America February 16-17, 2006 Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia The theme is "Prospering in Rural America," and the program will highlight the economic development of rural America. In addition, there will be a broad range of sessions, including Shifting Trade Patterns, Chinese Agriculture, Homeland Security, the African Growth & Opportunity Act, Bio-fuel Production and New Energy Forms in Rural Areas, Community Supported Agriculture, and Feedback from the 2007 Farm Bill Listening Sessions. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns and other top experts in agriculture will be among the more than 130 speakers. Find full program and registration details at www.usda.gov/oce/forum or call toll free, 1-877-572-6043. Forum speeches can be downloaded after February 17, 2006. www.usda.gov/oce/forum (877) 572-6043 toll free