Cr Pr 2-2 (4-06) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 10, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Virtually Unchanged The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2005-06 season is 8.96 million tons, virtually unchanged from the March 1 forecast but 3 percent below last season's revised final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast, at 153 million boxes (6.89 million tons), is down 1 percent from the previous forecast but 2 percent above the revised 2004-05 utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 75.0 million boxes (3.38 million tons), down 1 percent from last month and 5 percent below the previous season. Harvest of the early and midseason varieties is almost complete with the row count survey conducted March 29-30 showing very few unharvested rows remaining. Navel harvest is complete. Florida's Valencia forecast is 78.0 million boxes (3.51 million tons), unchanged from the March forecast but 10 percent above last season's revised final utilization. If realized, this will be the first season that Florida Valencia orange production exceeds that of the early, midseason, and navel varieties. California's all orange forecast, at 53.0 million boxes (1.99 million tons), is unchanged from the March forecast but 17 percent below the revised 2004-05 utilization. Harvesting of navel oranges was active throughout March, although at a slower pace due to continued rainfall. Cooler March temperatures slowed fruit maturation which is helping to minimize fruit drop. California's Valencia orange forecast, at 11.0 million boxes (413,000 tons), is unchanged from the March forecast but 46 percent below last season's revised utilization. The Valencia harvest began mid-month in the Central Valley but has slowed due to wet weather. Harvest continues in the southern citrus growing areas, as conditions allow. Fruit is generally of good to excellent quality, although some splits are beginning to appear. The Texas all orange forecast is 1.53 million boxes (65,000 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 14 percent below last season's final utilized production. The Texas early and midseason orange harvest is virtually complete and the Valencia harvest should begin to wind down soon. Arizona's all orange utilization forecast, at 450,000 boxes (17,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 5 percent above the 2004-05 season. Arizona's citrus groves and fruit are reported to be in good condition. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2005-06 season, at 1.61 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, is increased from the 1.58 gallons estimated for both last month's and last season's yields as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The early-midseason portion is projected to yield 1.53 gallons, increased from the 1.52 gallons per box estimated last month but equal to that from the 2004-05 crop. The Valencia yield, at 1.70 gallons, is increased from 1.66 gallons last month and is higher than the 1.68 gallons per box recorded last season. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on April 10, 2006. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Joseph W. Glauber Agricultural Statistics Board Acting Chairperson Steven D. Wiyatt Contents Page Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . . 4 Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . . 4 Tangerines. . . . . . . . . . 4 Temples . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops Potatoes. . . . . . . . . . . 5 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . .13 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . 6 Information Contacts . . . . . .18 Reliability of Production Data in this Report17 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . .12 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . .13 Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2003-04, 2004-05 and Forecasted April 1, 2006 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2003-04 : 2004-05 : 2005-06 : 2003-04 : 2004-05 : 2005-06 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 3/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 4/ : AZ : 300 240 250 12 9 9 CA : 39,500 43,000 42,000 1,481 1,613 1,575 FL : 126,000 79,100 75,000 5,670 3,560 3,375 TX : 1,420 1,500 1,300 60 64 55 US : 167,220 123,840 118,550 7,223 5,246 5,014 Valencia : AZ : 170 190 200 6 7 8 CA : 11,000 20,500 11,000 413 769 413 FL : 116,000 70,700 78,000 5,220 3,182 3,510 TX : 230 270 230 10 11 10 US : 127,400 91,660 89,430 5,649 3,969 3,941 All : AZ : 470 430 450 18 16 17 CA : 50,500 63,500 53,000 1,894 2,382 1,988 FL : 242,000 149,800 153,000 10,890 6,742 6,885 TX : 1,650 1,770 1,530 70 75 65 US : 294,620 215,500 207,980 12,872 9,215 8,955 Temples : FL : 1,400 650 700 63 29 32 Grapefruit : White Seedless 5/ : FL : 15,900 3,400 6,000 675 145 255 Colored Seedless : FL : 25,000 9,400 12,000 1,063 400 510 All : AZ : 140 140 100 5 5 3 CA : 5,800 5,800 6,000 194 194 201 FL : 40,900 12,800 18,000 1,738 545 765 TX : 5,700 6,600 4,800 228 264 192 US : 52,540 25,340 28,900 2,165 1,008 1,161 Tangerines : AZ 6/ : 690 400 550 25 15 21 CA 6/ : 2,200 2,800 4,000 83 105 150 FL : 6,500 4,450 5,000 309 211 238 US : 9,390 7,650 9,550 417 331 409 Lemons : AZ : 3,000 2,400 3,800 114 91 144 CA : 18,000 19,000 19,000 684 722 722 US : 21,000 21,400 22,800 798 813 866 Tangelos : FL : 1,000 1,550 1,400 45 70 63 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ 2004-05 revised. 3/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 5/ Includes seedy. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2004-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :---------------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------ State : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 :2005 :2006 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Acres -------- -- Cwt -- ----- 1,000 Cwt ---- : Winter : CA : 14.0 12.0 14.0 12.0 250 270 3,250 3,500 3,240 FL : 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.5 240 250 1,568 1,392 1,375 : Total : 20.0 17.7 19.8 17.5 247 264 4,818 4,892 4,615 : Spring : AZ : 4.3 4.0 4.3 4.0 275 275 1,767 1,183 1,100 CA : 15.1 14.4 15.1 14.4 405 400 8,313 6,116 5,760 FL : 23.6 24.1 23.2 23.7 281 294 7,678 6,527 6,962 Hastings : 17.3 18.0 17.0 17.7 280 295 5,760 4,760 5,222 Other FL : 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.0 285 290 1,918 1,767 1,740 NC : 15.5 16.5 15.0 15.7 190 200 2,700 2,850 3,140 TX : 9.5 10.7 9.1 10.2 225 300 2,205 2,048 3,060 : Total : 68.0 69.7 66.7 68.0 281 294 22,663 18,724 20,022 : Summer 1/ : AL : 1.6 1.3 150 228 195 CA : 6.2 6.2 355 2,450 2,201 CO : 5.0 4.9 375 1,995 1,838 DE : 3.3 3.1 260 806 806 IL : 5.7 5.5 380 1,992 2,090 KS : 5.1 5.0 360 1,360 1,800 MD : 3.5 3.4 260 1,196 884 MO : 6.5 6.3 340 1,922 2,142 NJ : 2.1 2.1 255 594 536 NM 2/ : 340 TX : 9.4 8.7 465 4,224 4,046 VA : 5.0 4.9 210 1,200 1,029 : Total : 53.4 51.4 342 18,307 17,567 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Summer potatoes combined with fall potatoes in 2005. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Feb : 2,250 2,285 1,410 1,785 2,425 2,490 Mar : 2,490 2,060 1,435 1,775 2,715 2,135 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2005-2006 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3,875.0 3,667.0 3,269.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 81,759.0 78,019.0 75,107.0 Corn for Silage : 5,920.0 Hay, All : 61,649.0 61,478.0 Alfalfa : 22,389.0 All Other : 39,260.0 Oats : 4,246.0 4,324.0 1,823.0 Proso Millet : 565.0 515.0 Rice : 3,384.0 2,972.0 3,364.0 Rye : 1,433.0 279.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 6,454.0 6,483.0 5,736.0 Sorghum for Silage : 311.0 Wheat, All : 57,229.0 57,128.0 50,119.0 Winter : 40,433.0 41,404.0 33,794.0 Durum : 2,760.0 1,825.0 2,716.0 Other Spring : 14,036.0 13,899.0 13,609.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,159.0 923.0 1,114.0 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 983.0 890.0 955.0 Mustard Seed : 49.0 44.6 Peanuts : 1,657.0 1,391.0 1,629.0 Rapeseed : 2.4 2.0 Safflower : 165.0 160.0 Soybeans for Beans : 72,142.0 76,895.0 71,361.0 Sunflower : 2,709.0 2,196.0 2,610.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 14,195.4 14,634.0 13,702.6 Upland : 13,925.0 14,300.0 13,434.0 Amer-Pima : 270.4 334.0 268.6 Sugarbeets : 1,294.8 1,371.8 1,238.9 Sugarcane : 922.9 Tobacco : 298.0 306.6 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 42.5 24.5 Dry Edible Beans : 1,665.0 1,710.3 1,568.6 Dry Edible Peas : 808.0 765.9 Lentils : 450.0 439.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.1 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 Hops : 29.5 Peppermint Oil : 76.0 Potatoes, All : 1,110.0 1,087.4 Winter : 20.0 17.7 19.8 17.5 Spring : 68.0 69.7 66.7 68.0 Summer : 53.4 51.4 Fall : 968.6 949.5 Spearmint Oil : 17.7 Sweet Potatoes : 90.4 94.2 87.8 Taro (HI) 3/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2005-2006 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 64.8 211,896 Corn for Grain :" : 147.9 11,112,072 Corn for Silage :Tons : 18.0 106,311 Hay, All :" : 2.44 150,590 Alfalfa :" : 3.38 75,771 All Other :" : 1.91 74,819 Oats :Bu : 63.0 114,878 Proso Millet :" : 26.3 13,545 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 6,636 223,235 Rye :Bu : 27.0 7,537 Sorghum for Grain :" : 68.7 393,893 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 13.6 4,218 Wheat, All :Bu : 42.0 2,104,690 Winter :" : 44.4 1,499,129 Durum :" : 37.2 101,105 Other Spring :" : 37.1 504,456 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,419 1,580,985 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 8,501.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 20.6 19,695 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 787 35,114 Peanuts :" : 2,960 4,821,250 Rapeseed :" : 1,500 3,000 Safflower :" : 1,203 192,545 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 43.3 3,086,432 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,540 4,018,355 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 831 23,719.0 Upland 2/ :" : 824 23,064.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,171 655.0 Sugarbeets :Tons : 22.3 27,654 Sugarcane :" : 29.6 27,283 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,147 639,709 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,253 307 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,744 27,350 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,828 14,003 Lentils 2/ :" : 1,176 5,163 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 755 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,050 6,400 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 42,500 5,100 Hops :" : 1,791 52,914.5 Peppermint Oil :" : 92 6,980 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 388 422,209 Winter :" : 247 264 4,892 4,615 Spring :" : 281 294 18,724 20,022 Summer :" : 342 17,567 Fall :" : 401 381,026 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 109 1,933 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 179 15,747 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2004-2006 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :-------------------------------------------- : : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Tons : 2,165 1,008 1,161 Lemons : " : 798 813 866 Oranges : " : 12,872 9,215 8,955 Tangelos (FL) : " : 45 70 63 Tangerines : " : 417 331 409 Temples (FL) : " : 63 29 32 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 10,450.6 9,869.6 Apricots : Tons : 101.1 81.4 Bananas (HI) 3/ : Lbs : 16,500.0 Grapes : Tons : 6,240.0 6,974.9 Olives (CA) : " : 104.0 139.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 35,800.0 32,500.0 Peaches : Tons : 1,307.1 1,182.6 Pears : " : 877.3 812.3 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 49.0 90.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 25.0 8.7 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled): Lbs : 1,005,000 900,000 Hazelnuts (OR) : Tons : 37.5 28.0 Pecans : Lbs : 185,800 259,600 Walnuts (CA) : Tons : 325.0 355.0 Maple Syrup : Gals : 1,507 1,242 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2005-06 season. 2/ Production years are 2003-04, 2004-05, and 2005-06. 3/ 2005 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2005-2006 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,568,170 1,484,000 1,322,930 Corn for Grain 2/ :33,087,050 31,573,510 30,395,050 Corn for Silage : 2,395,760 Hay, All 3/ : 24,948,730 24,879,530 Alfalfa : 9,060,600 All Other : 15,888,130 Oats : 1,718,310 1,749,880 737,750 Proso Millet : 228,650 208,420 Rice : 1,369,470 1,202,740 1,361,380 Rye : 579,920 112,910 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 2,611,870 2,623,610 2,321,300 Sorghum for Silage : 125,860 Wheat, All 3/ :23,160,000 23,119,130 20,282,660 Winter :16,362,830 16,755,780 13,676,090 Durum : 1,116,940 738,560 1,099,140 Other Spring : 5,680,230 5,624,790 5,507,430 : Oilseeds : Canola : 469,040 373,530 450,820 Cottonseed : Flaxseed : 397,810 360,170 386,480 Mustard Seed : 19,830 18,050 Peanuts : 670,570 562,920 659,240 Rapeseed : 970 810 Safflower : 66,770 64,750 Soybeans for Beans :29,195,150 31,118,640 28,879,080 Sunflower : 1,096,310 888,700 1,056,240 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,744,740 5,922,230 5,545,310 Upland : 5,635,310 5,787,070 5,436,610 Amer-Pima : 109,430 135,170 108,700 Sugarbeets : 523,990 555,150 501,370 Sugarcane : 373,490 Tobacco : 120,610 124,090 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 17,200 9,910 Dry Edible Beans : 673,810 692,140 634,800 Dry Edible Peas : 326,990 309,950 Lentils : 182,110 177,660 Wrinkled Seed Peas : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,470 Ginger Root (HI) : 50 Hops : 11,960 Peppermint Oil : 30,760 Potatoes, All 3/ : 449,210 440,060 Winter : 8,090 7,160 8,010 7,080 Spring : 27,520 28,210 26,990 27,520 Summer : 21,610 20,800 Fall : 391,980 384,250 Spearmint Oil : 7,160 Sweet Potatoes : 36,580 38,120 35,530 Taro (HI) 4/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2005-2006 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.49 4,613,490 Corn for Grain : 9.29 282,259,630 Corn for Silage : 40.26 96,443,720 Hay, All 2/ : 5.48 136,612,950 Alfalfa : 7.59 68,738,290 All Other : 4.27 67,874,660 Oats : 2.26 1,667,450 Proso Millet : 1.47 307,200 Rice : 7.44 10,125,770 Rye : 1.70 191,450 Sorghum for Grain : 4.31 10,005,340 Sorghum for Silage : 30.40 3,826,510 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.82 57,280,270 Winter : 2.98 40,799,610 Durum : 2.50 2,751,630 Other Spring : 2.49 13,729,040 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.59 717,120 Cottonseed 3/ : 7,711,980 Flaxseed : 1.29 500,280 Mustard Seed : 0.88 15,930 Peanuts : 3.32 2,186,880 Rapeseed : 1.68 1,360 Safflower : 1.35 87,340 Soybeans for Beans : 2.91 83,998,910 Sunflower : 1.73 1,822,700 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.93 5,164,200 Upland : 0.92 5,021,590 Amer-Pima : 1.31 142,610 Sugarbeets : 50.04 25,087,290 Sugarcane : 66.27 24,750,720 Tobacco : 2.41 290,170 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.40 13,930 Dry Edible Beans : 1.95 1,240,580 Dry Edible Peas : 2.05 635,170 Lentils : 1.32 234,190 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 34,250 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.18 2,900 Ginger Root (HI) : 47.64 2,310 Hops : 2.01 24,000 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,170 Potatoes, All 2/ : 43.52 19,151,080 Winter : 27.69 29.56 221,900 209,330 Spring : 31.46 33.00 849,310 908,180 Summer : 38.31 796,830 Fall : 44.98 17,283,050 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 880 Sweet Potatoes : 20.10 714,270 Taro (HI) 3/ : 1,810 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2004-2006 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,964,050 914,440 1,053,240 Lemons : 723,930 737,540 785,620 Oranges : 11,677,280 8,359,710 8,123,840 Tangelos (FL) : 40,820 63,500 57,150 Tangerines : 378,300 300,280 371,040 Temples (FL) : 57,150 26,310 29,030 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,740,310 4,476,780 Apricots : 91,740 73,800 Bananas (HI) 3/ : 7,480 Grapes : 5,660,860 6,327,520 Olives (CA) : 94,350 126,100 Papayas (HI) : 16,240 14,740 Peaches : 1,185,790 1,072,840 Pears : 795,840 736,930 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 44,450 81,650 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 22,680 7,890 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 455,860 408,230 Hazelnuts (OR) : 34,020 25,400 Pecans : 84,280 117,750 Walnuts (CA) : 294,840 322,050 Maple Syrup : 7,530 6,210 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2005-06 season. 2/ Production years are 2003-04, 2004-05, and 2005-06. 3/ 2005 not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. March Weather Summary Storminess briefly tempered the effects of an otherwise dry winter in Arizona and New Mexico, while snowy weather bolstered favorable spring and summer runoff prospects across the Intermountain West and interior Northwest. In northern and central California, very cool, wet weather threatened crop quality and slowed fieldwork and crop development. Farther east, a severe windstorm raked the southern High Plains on March 12, raising dust and fanning wildfires. A week later, rain provided some limited relief to the southern Plains' drought-stricken pastures and winter wheat. By month's end, dryness remained a concern as far north as the central High Plains, although a March 18-21 snowstorm and subsequent precipitation boosted soil moisture reserves in most areas from Kansas northward. In late March, flooding developed in the Red River Valley (North Dakota-Minnesota border) due to rainfall and melting snow. In the Corn Belt, March precipitation aided Midwestern winter wheat and boosted soil moisture in preparation for spring planting. Meanwhile in the Arklatex region, downpours provided additional drought relief but caused local flash flooding. Elsewhere, extremely dry conditions were observed along the Gulf Coast and in the Atlantic Coast States, resulting in numerous records for March dryness and monthly totals less than 25 percent of normal from southern Louisiana to Florida and along the East Coast as far north as southern New England. Cool March weather in the West contrasted with above-normal temperatures from the southern Plains to the Delta. Monthly temperatures averaged more than 6 degrees F below normal in parts of California and the Great Basin, but were as much as 6 degrees F above normal in parts of Oklahoma and Texas. Mild weather (at least 3 degrees F above normal) also prevailed in northern New England, but fluctuating temperatures elsewhere resulted in monthly temperatures within 3 degrees F of normal. March Agricultural Summary Above-normal temperatures prevailed across the central and western Corn Belt, Mississippi Delta, southern Great Plains, and Northeast, while temperatures in the Ohio Valley, southern Atlantic Coast, Rocky Mountains, and Pacific Coast averaged below normal. Much-needed precipitation fell in the Great Plains, where dry conditions threatened winter wheat throughout the winter. Though soil moisture improved with the rainfall, crop condition remained mostly poor to very poor in the southern Great Plains. Planting and emergence of summer crops were well ahead of normal in Texas. Moderate to heavy precipitation in the Corn Belt boosted topsoil moisture but hindered fieldwork. Corn planting had begun in only the southernmost areas of the region. In the Ohio Valley, rainfall totals were mostly below normal. However, most areas still had adequate soil moisture, while excessive moisture in some areas caused flooding in winter wheat fields. Dry conditions along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts were favorable for fieldwork but caused soil moisture shortages. Corn planting was well underway in the southernmost areas of the Southeast, but some areas needed additional moisture before planting could begin. In the interior Mississippi Delta, warm weather and normal rainfall pushed planting of most crops ahead of the normal pace. In California, wet weather favored crop growth but hampered fieldwork, causing flooding in some areas. Below-normal temperatures slowed development in fruit orchards. Similar weather in the Pacific Northwest delayed small grain planting and caused some flooding. Winter wheat condition was mostly good due to ample moisture. Grapefruit: The U.S. grapefruit forecast is 1.16 million tons, up 3 percent from the previous forecast and 15 percent above last season's final utilization. Florida's grapefruit forecast, at 18.0 million boxes (765,000 tons), is up 6 percent from March and 41 percent above last season's final utilization. The last 2 seasons' hurricane-affected crops are the smallest since the 1939-40 season. The white grapefruit forecast is 6.00 million boxes (255,000 tons), up 20 percent from March and 76 percent above last season. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 12.0 million boxes (510,000 tons), is unchanged from March 1 but 28 percent above last season's final utilization. The comparison of current utilization to results of the row count survey is the primary indication used in setting the April grapefruit forecast. The row count survey conducted March 29-30 shows 81 percent of the grapefruit rows harvested. The East Coast has a higher percentage of rows harvested than the middle of the State. California's grapefruit forecast, at 6.00 million boxes (201,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 3 percent from last season's final utilization. Pummelo variety grapefruit is being harvested in the Central Valley. Exterior and interior quality are good. The Rios variety continues to be harvested in the Coachella Valley. Quality is fair to good, with some irregularity in color. Texture is smooth to pebbly in the smaller sizes, and coarse in the larger sizes. The Texas grapefruit forecast is 4.80 million boxes (192,000 tons), 6 percent below the previous forecast and 27 percent lower than last season. Most of this season's grapefruit crop has already been picked but external quality is starting to deteriorate on unharvested fruit. Arizona's grapefruit forecast, at 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but is 29 percent below last season's final utilization. Grapefruit harvest is complete in Yuma and is continuing in Maricopa County. Good fruit quality is reported. Tangerines: The 2005-06 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is 409,000 tons, up 7 percent from the previous forecast and 24 percent higher than last season's final utilization of 331,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop, at 5.00 million boxes (238,000 tons), is down 4 percent from the previous forecast but 12 percent higher than last season's utilization of 4.45 million boxes. Harvest of Florida's Fallglo and Sunburst tangerines is complete. The Honey variety row count survey for April shows 66 percent of the rows have been harvested. California's forecast of tangerine production, at 4.00 million boxes (150,000 tons), is up 29 percent from the January 1 forecast and 43 percent above last season's utilized production. Yields are reported as being very good with generally good fruit quality and flavor. Harvest was interrupted by occasional March rains. The Arizona tangerine forecast, at 550,000 boxes (21,000 tons), is up 10 percent from the previous forecast and 38 percent higher than last season. Good quality is being reported. Harvest is complete in Yuma. Lemons: The forecast for the 2005-06 U.S. lemon crop, at 866,000 tons, is unchanged from the January 1 forecast but up 7 percent from last season. California production is forecast at 19.0 million boxes (722,000 tons), unchanged from both the previous forecast and the 2004-05 season. Harvest continues as usual with reports of very good quality and yield, though picking has occasionally been interrupted by rains. No internal fruit damage has been reported. Arizona's 2005-06 lemon forecast, at 3.80 million boxes (144,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 58 percent above the previous season. Lemons are sizing smaller this season due to the heavier fruit set. Harvest is almost complete in Yuma and Maricopa County. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast, at 1.40 million boxes (63,000 tons), is unchanged from March 1 but 10 percent lower than last season's final utilized production. Tangelo utilization is complete for the season with over 60 percent of the fruit being processed. Temples: Florida's Temple forecast is 700,000 boxes (32,000 tons) for the 2005-06 season, down 12 percent from March but 8 percent above last season's final utilization of 650,000 boxes. If attained, this will be the second lowest utilization since Temple forecasts began. Temple harvest is nearly complete. Florida Citrus: March turned out to be an extremely dry month at 6 of the 7 monitored stations. Immokalle, in the extreme south, was the only exception by receiving over 2 inches of rain for the month. The least amount of rainfall recorded was in Ft. Pierce with three-tenths of an inch recorded. Warmer than normal seasonal daytime temperatures were recorded in all areas, averaging in the mid 80's. Trees had reached a uniform full bloom by the end of the month, with petal drop beginning on Valencia and grapefruit trees. Growers continued with fertilization programs, brush removal, and hedging and topping after harvest. Irrigation was generally required on a rotating basis at least 2 or 3 times per week for the entire month. Maturity levels in all varieties lagged behind normal for the month. Harvest of early and midseason orange varieties wound down as Valencia harvest increased the second and third weeks of the month. Grapefruit harvest peaked at just over 1 million boxes during the fourth week, with a larger percentage of both colored and white going to processing. Honey tangerine harvest was relatively steady between 100,000 and 150,000 boxes per week. Temple utilization averaged less than 50,000 boxes per week and was nearing completion by the end of the month. Arizona Citrus: Citrus groves are reported to be in good condition. Overall, fruit quality is good. Fruit size continues to be smaller than normal. Compared to last season, there has been little insect damage. Nearly all of the navel oranges, lemons, tangerines, and grapefruit have been harvested in Yuma County. Packers estimate nearly 20 percent of the Valencia crop has been harvested in Maricopa County. Texas Citrus: Due to lack of rainfall this season, growers have continued to irrigate in order to maintain fruit size and quality. By the end of March, most citrus fruit had been harvested. However, unusually strong winds during early March resulted in heavy fruit drop from the small amount of trees that had not already been harvested. Grapefruit harvest is nearly 90 percent complete. Harvest of navel oranges is virtually complete and only 25 percent of the Valencia crop remains on the trees. California Citrus: Periods of rain during the month caused some delays in harvesting of citrus fruit. Harvesting of navel oranges continued throughout the month. Grade-outs due to rind puff and small sizes continued to be a problem. Fungicide applications were made to oranges to meet export requirements. The Valencia orange harvest continued in the Coachella Valley and parts of the Central Valley. Lemons were harvested in many locations. Rios and pummelo variety grapefruit were picked. Mandarins, tangelos, and tangerines were also picked and packed. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Rainy weather during March continued to delay field work. Growers applied fungicides to prevent fungal diseases resulting from the rainy conditions. By month's end, grape buds were starting to swell and leaves were beginning to appear. Vineyards were treated for weeds, and several growers were French-plowing their rows. Soil amendments were applied in many vineyards and spray applications for vine mealy bug continued throughout the month. Unsettled weather conditions hampered bee pollination activities on tree fruit. Some signs of fruit scarring were noted in early variety plums, pluots, and nectarines. Apricot and cherry bloom was reported to be light and erratic with some damage expected in Tulare variety cherries due to the cold temperatures. Apple and pear trees were starting to bloom by month's end and pomegranates began leafing out. Kiwifruit vines were treated with dormant sprays. Strawberry plants showed growth throughout the month and were blooming by month's end. Most almond orchards were past bloom and beginning to leaf out by the end of the month. Bees were removed from some almond orchards. Many orchards were treated to prevent shot hole disease. Winter pruning and shredding, as well as some herbicide applications, continued in walnut groves between rain storms. Avocado harvest began toward the end of March. Some olive groves were pruned. Winter Potatoes: The 2006 U.S. winter potato crop in California and Florida combined is forecast at 4.62 million cwt, 4 percent above the January forecast but 6 percent below last year. Area for harvest, at 17,500 acres, is unchanged from January but down 12 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 264 cwt per acre is up 10 cwt from January and 17 cwt above a year ago. California's average yield is forecast at 270 cwt per acre, 10 cwt per acre above the January forecast. Harvest continues with good quality. There was little damage caused by freezing temperatures in March. Yields in Florida are forecasted at 250 cwt per acre, 10 cwt per acre above the January forecast. Mild weather during December aided in crop development and dry conditions have kept harvest on schedule. Spring Potatoes: Spring production in 2006 is forecast at 20.0 million cwt, up 7 percent from last year. Area for harvest is forecast at 68,000 acres, 2 percent above 2005. The average yield is forecast at 294 cwt per acre, up 13 cwt from a year ago. Spring potato production in Florida is forecast at 6.96 million cwt, up 7 percent from a year ago. Florida's spring harvested acreage increased 2 percent and average yield is expected to be 13 cwt per acre above last year. Dry weather kept planting on schedule and in late March, Hastings growers continued to make double crop plantings following cabbage harvest. Digging is expected to begin by mid-April in the Hastings area and is underway in the other spring areas. North Carolina's spring potato crop is forecast at 3.14 million cwt, up 10 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to be up 5 percent from a year ago and average yield is expected to increase 10 cwt per acre from last year. Planting is winding down and crop condition is good. California's spring potato production forecast, at 5.76 million cwt, is 6 percent below last year. Area for harvest is down 5 percent and yield is down 5 cwt per acre from a year ago. Planting proceeded normally but weather conditions have been wet and cool. Overall condition of the crop is lower than the previous year and a few potato fields were damaged by frost. Harvest is under way in Kern county but some growers anticipate a late harvest due to the wet conditions. Texas spring potato production is forecast at 3.06 million cwt, 49 percent above last season. Acreage for harvest increased 12 percent and the average yield forecast is up 75 cwt per acre from a year ago. Producers report good growing conditions with near perfect weather. Arizona's production is forecast at 1.10 million cwt, down 7 percent from last year. Growers report a 7 percent decrease in acreage for harvest but expect yield to be unchanged from last year. Summer Potatoes, 2005 Revisions: The final estimate of 2005 summer potato crop production is 17.6 million cwt, up 8 percent from the preliminary estimate in the January Crop Production 2005 Summary but down 4 percent from the 2004 crop. Harvested area covered 51,400 acres, up 6 percent from the 2005 preliminary estimate but down 5 percent from 2004. The average yield of 342 cwt per acre is up 8 cwt from the 2005 preliminary estimate and 2 cwt above the 2004 crop. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.14 million pounds for March, down 14 percent from last month and 21 percent lower than a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,060 acres, down 10 percent from last month and 17 percent below March 2005. Harvested area totaled 1,775 acres, down 1 percent from last month but 24 percent higher than the same month last year. Frequent rains began in mid-February and continued through March, saturating papaya orchards, which stressed trees and increased disease pressure, particularly on the western islands of Oahu and Kauai. Most papayas are grown in the Puna area of Hawaii Island and were not as adversely affected by this excessive moisture. Orchards there experienced steady flowering and new growth, while new seedlings made good progress. Growers increased spraying to control disease outbreaks and weed growth. Reliability of April 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These 4 States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.0 percent. However, if you exclude the 6 abnormal production seasons (5 freeze seasons and 1 hurricane season), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 1.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.0 percent, or 1.6 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.1 percent, or 2.9 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 194,000 tons (158,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 7,000 tons to 716,000 tons (7,000 tons to 368,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 6 times and above 8 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Scott Cox - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed(202) 720-9526 Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice(202) 720-7688 Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Travis Thorson - Hay, Oats, Sorghum(202) 690-3234 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Rich Holcomb - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas(202) 720-3250 Terry O'Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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