Cr Pr 2-2 (10-06) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 12, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Corn Production Down 2 Percent from September Soybean Production Up 3 Percent from September Cotton Production Up 2 Percent from September Orange Production Down 11 Percent from Last Season Corn production is forecast at 10.9 billion bushels, down 2 percent from both last month and 2005. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 153.5 bushels per acre, down 1.2 bushels from September but 5.6 bushels higher than last year. If realized, the yield would be the second largest on record, behind 2004. Forecast yields are lower than September across the central Corn Belt as early harvest results revealed that the hot, dry summer conditions had reduced yield potential more than anticipated. However, producers in the northern and eastern Corn Belt reported better than expected yields due mainly to timely rainfall during the growing season. Expected yields across the northern and southern Great Plains are unchanged from last month. Based on administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States bringing total corn planted acres to 78.6 million acres, down 1 percent from June and 4 percent lower than 2005. Area harvested and to be harvested for grain, at 71.0 million acres, is down 1 percent from September and 5 percent below 2005. Soybean production is forecast at 3.19 billion bushels, up 3 percent from the September forecast and up 4 percent from the 2005 crop. If realized, this would be the highest production on record. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 42.8 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from September but down 0.2 bushel from last year's record high yield. Compared with last month, yield forecasts are unchanged or higher in all States except South Dakota. The States with the largest expected increase from September are Illinois and Virginia, both up 3.0 bushels from last month. Timely rains and cooler temperatures improved yield expectations in the central and northern Corn Belt. Based on administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States with soybean planted area now at 75.6 million acres, up 1 percent from June and up 5 percent from 2005. Expected area for harvest, at 74.5 million acres, is up 1 percent from September and 5 percent above 2005. Revised 2005 soybean acreage, yield, and production were published in the September 29, 2006 Grain Stocks report. All Cotton production is forecast at 20.7 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from last month but down 14 percent from last year's record high production. Yield is expected to average 774 pounds per acre, up 12 pounds from last month but down 57 pounds from last year. The October harvested area is expected to total 12.8 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 7 percent from 2005. The higher production forecast is a result of better than expected yields throughout the Delta and parts of the Southeast. The initial U.S. all orange forecast for the 2006-07 season is 7.89 million tons, down 11 percent from last season's final utilization of 8.90 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 135 million boxes (6.08 million tons), is down 9 percent from the 2005-06 hurricane-reduced crop. This forecast is 44 percent lower than the final utilization for the 2003-04 season which was Florida's last non-hurricane-reduced crop. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 72.0 million boxes (3.24 million tons), 4 percent below last season's final utilization. Beginning with the current season, Temple oranges are included in this category. Florida's Valencia forecast is 63.0 million boxes (2.84 million tons), down 14 percent from last season's final utilization. Average fruit per tree is down from last year for all orange varieties and is attributed to cold temperatures in mid-February which interrupted the bloom period, as well as lingering stress from last year's hurricane. This reduced fruit set is particularly evident in Valencia oranges, which at 428 fruit per tree is the lowest on record. California's all orange production for the 2006-07 season is forecast at 46.0 million boxes (1.73 million tons), down 20 percent from last season's final utilization. The California navel orange forecast is carried forward from September at 33.0 million boxes (1.24 million tons) and is down 27 percent from the previous season's utilization. This year's long and wet spring has contributed to the lowest fruit set since the 2001-02 season. The initial 2006-07 forecast for California Valencia oranges is 13.0 million boxes (488,000 tons), up 8 percent from last season's utilization. The Valencia crop is developing normally, with no major problems reported. The number of fruit per tree is higher than last season, but acreage continues to decline. The Texas forecast for all oranges is 1.78 million boxes (75,000 tons), 11 percent above last season's final utilization. Arizona's all orange forecast, at 350,000 boxes (14,000 tons), is down 22 percent from the final 2005-06 utilization. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2006-07 season is forecast at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. This is down from the 2005-06 season's yield of 1.63 gallons, as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. Projected yield from the 2006-07 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on October 12, 2006. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Charles F. Conner Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested Updates4 Grains & Hay Corn for Grain. . . . . . . . 6 Ears Per Acre. . . . . . .30 Hay, Alfalfa. . . . . . . . .14 Hay, Other. . . . . . . . . .15 Rice. . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Rice, by Class . . . . . . 8 Sorghum for Grain . . . . . . 7 Oilseeds Canola. . . . . . . . . . . .11 Peanuts . . . . . . . . . . .11 Soybeans. . . . . . . . . . . 9 Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet31 Sunflower . . . . . . . . . .10 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton. . . . . . . . . . . .12 Cumulative Bolls Counts. .32 Cottonseed. . . . . . . . . .13 Sugarbeets. . . . . . . . . .16 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed.16 Tobacco . . . . . . . . . . .18 Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Dry Edible Beans. . . . . . .17 Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Apples. . . . . . . . . . . .21 Grapes. . . . . . . . . . . .23 Papayas . . . . . . . . . . .23 Prunes. . . . . . . . . . . .23 Pecans. . . . . . . . . . . .22 Citrus Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . .20 Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . .20 Oranges . . . . . . . . . . .20 Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . .20 Tangerines. . . . . . . . . .20 Temples . . . . . . . . . . .20 Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops Potatoes. . . . . . . . . . .18 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . .35 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . .24 Information Contacts . . . . . .47 Reliability of Production Data in this Report45 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . .33 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . .34 Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2006 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Corn : Sorghum : Soybeans State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- :Planted 1/: Harvested :Planted 1/: Harvested :Planted 1/: Harvested ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : AL : 210 190 10 7 160 150 AZ : 55 23 24 7 AR : 190 180 63 59 3,110 3,060 CA : 540 100 30 9 CO : 1,000 840 200 120 CT : 27 DE : 170 160 180 178 FL : 60 31 7 5 GA : 280 230 35 23 160 150 ID : 270 70 IL : 11,300 11,150 80 77 10,100 10,050 IN : 5,500 5,350 5,700 5,680 IA : 12,700 12,400 10,100 10,050 KS : 3,400 3,150 2,650 2,400 3,150 3,000 KY : 1,120 1,030 14 11 1,380 1,360 LA : 300 290 90 88 870 830 ME : 26 MD : 490 415 470 460 MA : 18 MI : 2,200 1,940 2,000 1,980 MN : 7,300 6,800 7,350 7,250 MS : 340 325 16 14 1,670 1,640 MO : 2,700 2,600 100 95 5,200 5,150 MT : 65 19 NE : 8,100 7,750 370 260 5,050 5,000 NV : 4 NH : 14 NJ : 75 62 90 87 NM : 130 50 110 80 NY : 970 450 200 198 NC : 780 720 18 13 1,380 1,350 ND : 1,690 1,450 3,900 3,800 OH : 3,150 2,930 4,650 4,620 OK : 270 230 270 230 310 260 OR : 51 24 PA : 1,350 940 13 5 450 440 RI : 2 SC : 300 270 11 8 400 390 SD : 4,500 3,600 200 100 3,950 3,900 TN : 560 510 15 13 1,160 1,130 TX : 1,750 1,450 2,000 1,700 230 200 UT : 65 17 VT : 90 VA : 480 345 520 500 WA : 140 75 WV : 44 26 18 17 WI : 3,700 2,800 1,650 1,620 WY : 85 55 : US : 78,561 71,047 6,319 5,319 75,565 74,505 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from the June 2006 "Acreage" report. Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Canola : Sunflower : : :----------------------------------------------------- : : : Oil : Non-Oil : All :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CO : 80 75 20 18 100 93 KS : 140 130 12 11 152 141 MN : 28.0 26.0 55 52 35 32 90 84 MT : 10.0 9.5 NE : 34 33 19 18 53 51 ND : 950.0 930.0 770 750 130 125 900 875 SD : 490 440 45 40 535 480 TX : 29 27 25 22 54 49 : Oth : Sts 2/: 57.0 42.5 88 80 12 11 100 91 : US :1,045.0 1,008.0 1,686 1,587 298 277 1,984 1,864 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from the June 2006 "Acreage" report. 2/ Other States for Canola include ID, MI, OK, OR, and WA. Other States for Sunflower include CA, IL, MI, MO, MT, OK, WI, and WY. Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2006 : : : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 :------------------: 2005 : 2006 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels ------- --- 1,000 Bushels --- : AL : 200 190 119.0 60.0 60.0 23,800 11,400 AR : 230 180 131.0 134.0 135.0 30,130 24,300 CA : 110 100 172.0 175.0 175.0 18,920 17,500 CO : 950 840 148.0 152.0 150.0 140,600 126,000 DE : 154 160 143.0 145.0 145.0 22,022 23,200 GA : 230 230 129.0 104.0 109.0 29,670 25,070 IL : 11,950 11,150 143.0 174.0 171.0 1,708,850 1,906,650 IN : 5,770 5,350 154.0 167.0 165.0 888,580 882,750 IA : 12,500 12,400 173.0 174.0 168.0 2,162,500 2,083,200 KS : 3,450 3,150 135.0 125.0 123.0 465,750 387,450 KY : 1,180 1,030 132.0 152.0 148.0 155,760 152,440 LA : 330 290 136.0 131.0 135.0 44,880 39,150 MD : 400 415 135.0 142.0 140.0 54,000 58,100 MI : 2,020 1,940 143.0 151.0 149.0 288,860 289,060 MN : 6,850 6,800 174.0 164.0 166.0 1,191,900 1,128,800 MS : 365 325 129.0 100.0 100.0 47,085 32,500 MO : 2,970 2,600 111.0 142.0 142.0 329,670 369,200 NE : 8,250 7,750 154.0 157.0 161.0 1,270,500 1,247,750 NJ : 62 62 122.0 133.0 137.0 7,564 8,494 NM : 55 50 175.0 180.0 180.0 9,625 9,000 NY : 460 450 124.0 120.0 123.0 57,040 55,350 NC : 700 720 120.0 135.0 135.0 84,000 97,200 ND : 1,200 1,450 129.0 105.0 105.0 154,800 152,250 OH : 3,250 2,930 143.0 160.0 161.0 464,750 471,730 OK : 250 230 115.0 105.0 105.0 28,750 24,150 PA : 960 940 122.0 135.0 131.0 117,120 123,140 SC : 285 270 116.0 106.0 108.0 33,060 29,160 SD : 3,950 3,600 119.0 105.0 105.0 470,050 378,000 TN : 595 510 130.0 120.0 125.0 77,350 63,750 TX : 1,850 1,450 114.0 116.0 116.0 210,900 168,200 VA : 360 345 118.0 125.0 125.0 42,480 43,125 WA : 80 75 205.0 210.0 210.0 16,400 15,750 WI : 2,900 2,800 148.0 151.0 151.0 429,200 422,800 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 241 265 147.3 147.0 145.6 35,506 38,575 : US : 75,107 71,047 147.9 154.7 153.5 11,112,072 10,905,194 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, FL, ID, MT, OR, UT, WV, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2006 Summary." Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2006 : : : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 :-----------------: 2005 : 2006 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ------- Bushels ------ 1,000 Bushels : AR : 62 59 80.0 84.0 84.0 4,960 4,956 CO : 110 120 31.0 32.0 29.0 3,410 3,480 IL : 83 77 92.0 107.0 104.0 7,636 8,008 KS : 2,600 2,400 75.0 60.0 60.0 195,000 144,000 LA : 88 88 99.0 96.0 96.0 8,712 8,448 MO : 130 95 76.0 83.0 78.0 9,880 7,410 NE : 250 260 87.0 80.0 81.0 21,750 21,060 NM : 97 80 45.0 35.0 35.0 4,365 2,800 OK : 240 230 52.0 40.0 35.0 12,480 8,050 SD : 85 100 52.0 40.0 40.0 4,420 4,000 TX : 1,850 1,700 60.0 48.0 48.0 111,000 81,600 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 141 110 72.9 69.4 67.3 10,280 7,405 : US : 5,736 5,319 68.7 57.3 56.6 393,893 301,217 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, KY, MS, NC, PA, SC, and TN. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2006 Summary." Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 2006 : : : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 :-------------------: 2005 : 2006 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Pounds -------- ---- 1,000 Cwt --- : AR : 1,635 1,400 6,650 6,720 6,760 108,792 94,640 CA : 526 526 7,380 7,700 7,600 38,836 39,976 LA : 525 345 5,900 5,750 5,750 30,983 19,838 MS : 263 189 6,400 6,900 6,900 16,832 13,041 MO : 214 214 6,600 6,900 6,700 14,124 14,338 TX : 201 149 6,800 7,400 7,000 13,668 10,430 : US : 3,364 2,823 6,636 6,846 6,811 223,235 192,263 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rice: Production by Class, United States, 2004-2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain 1/ : All : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 2004 : 170,445 58,689 3,228 232,362 2005 : 177,527 42,408 3,300 223,235 2006 2/ : 142,909 45,725 3,629 192,263 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Sweet rice production included with short grain. 2/ The 2006 rice production by class estimates are based on class harvested acreage estimates and the 5-year average class yield compared to the all rice yield. Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2006 : : : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 :-------------------: 2005 : 2006 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 145 150 33.0 17.0 17.0 4,785 2,550 AR : 3,000 3,060 34.0 36.0 36.0 102,000 110,160 DE : 182 178 26.0 28.0 30.0 4,732 5,340 GA : 175 150 26.0 24.0 24.0 4,550 3,600 IL : 9,450 10,050 46.5 48.0 51.0 439,425 512,550 IN : 5,380 5,680 49.0 50.0 51.0 263,620 289,680 IA : 10,000 10,050 52.5 49.0 50.0 525,000 502,500 KS : 2,850 3,000 37.0 31.0 31.0 105,450 93,000 KY : 1,240 1,360 43.0 46.0 46.0 53,320 62,560 LA : 850 830 34.0 32.0 32.0 28,900 26,560 MD : 470 460 34.0 33.0 35.0 15,980 16,100 MI : 1,990 1,980 38.5 40.0 40.0 76,615 79,200 MN : 6,800 7,250 45.0 40.0 42.0 306,000 304,500 MS : 1,590 1,640 36.5 26.0 26.0 58,035 42,640 MO : 4,910 5,150 37.0 41.0 41.0 181,670 211,150 NE : 4,660 5,000 50.5 50.0 51.0 235,330 255,000 NJ : 91 87 28.0 31.0 33.0 2,548 2,871 NY : 188 198 42.0 42.0 42.0 7,896 8,316 NC : 1,460 1,350 27.0 30.0 31.0 39,420 41,850 ND : 2,900 3,800 36.0 29.0 29.0 104,400 110,200 OH : 4,480 4,620 45.0 46.0 46.0 201,600 212,520 OK : 305 260 26.0 18.0 19.0 7,930 4,940 PA : 420 440 41.0 40.0 41.0 17,220 18,040 SC : 420 390 20.5 26.0 28.0 8,610 10,920 SD : 3,850 3,900 35.0 34.0 33.0 134,750 128,700 TN : 1,100 1,130 38.0 38.0 38.0 41,800 42,940 TX : 230 200 26.0 20.0 21.0 5,980 4,200 VA : 510 500 30.0 28.0 31.0 15,300 15,500 WI : 1,580 1,620 44.0 42.0 43.0 69,520 69,660 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 25 22 34.0 35.4 37.7 851 829 : US : 71,251 74,505 43.0 41.8 42.8 3,063,237 3,188,576 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include FL and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2006 Summary." Sunflower: Area Planted by Varietal Type, State and United States, 2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Varietal Type State :----------------------------------------------------------- : Oil : Non-Oil : All -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CO : 150 65 215 KS : 255 45 300 MN : 75 60 135 NE : 60 39 99 ND : 910 230 1,140 SD : 500 50 550 TX : 50 95 145 : Oth Sts 2/ : 104 21 125 : US : 2,104 605 2,709 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. 2/ Other States include CA, IL, MI, MO, MT, OK, WI, and WY. Sunflower: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2004-2005 1/ and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Varietal : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Type & :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 2/ : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : Oil : CO : 145 75 1,250 108,000 181,250 KS : 245 130 1,540 204,400 377,300 MN : 72 52 1,600 33,600 115,200 NE : 58 33 1,400 35,000 81,200 ND : 885 750 1,610 686,400 1,424,850 SD : 481 440 1,650 575,240 793,650 TX : 48 27 1,600 20,800 76,800 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 98 80 1,300 99,938 127,385 : US : 2,032 1,587 1,564 1,763,378 3,177,635 : Non-Oil : CO : 60 18 1,350 38,700 81,000 KS : 44 11 1,700 21,960 74,800 MN : 55 32 1,250 23,000 68,750 NE : 38 18 1,600 18,900 60,800 ND : 220 125 1,490 105,300 327,800 SD : 49 40 1,700 31,500 83,300 TX : 92 22 1,300 35,200 119,600 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 20 11 1,234 11,675 24,670 : US : 578 277 1,455 286,235 840,720 : All : CO : 205 93 1,279 1,145 146,700 262,250 106,440 KS : 289 141 1,564 1,208 226,360 452,100 170,300 MN : 127 84 1,448 1,593 56,600 183,950 133,800 NE : 96 51 1,479 938 53,900 142,000 47,850 ND : 1,105 875 1,586 1,143 791,700 1,752,650 1,000,000 SD : 530 480 1,655 1,000 606,740 876,950 480,000 TX : 140 49 1,403 1,255 56,000 196,400 61,500 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 118 91 1,289 1,250 111,613 152,055 113,735 : US : 2,610 1,864 1,540 1,134 2,049,613 4,018,355 2,113,625 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 Revised. 2/ 2006 yield and production estimates for oil and non-oil varieties will be published in the "Crop Production 2006 Summary." 3/ For 2004, Other States include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY. For 2005 and 2006, Other States include CA, IL, MI, MO, MT, OK, WI, and WY. Peanuts: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield and Production by State and United States, 2004-2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : AL : 200.0 225.0 160.0 199.0 223.0 158.0 FL : 145.0 160.0 130.0 130.0 152.0 120.0 GA : 620.0 755.0 580.0 610.0 750.0 575.0 MS 2/ : 15.0 16.0 14.0 15.0 NM : 17.0 19.0 16.0 17.0 19.0 16.0 NC : 105.0 97.0 85.0 105.0 96.0 85.0 OK : 35.0 35.0 23.0 33.0 33.0 22.0 SC : 35.0 63.0 60.0 33.0 60.0 56.0 TX : 240.0 265.0 155.0 235.0 260.0 150.0 VA : 33.0 23.0 17.0 32.0 22.0 16.0 : US : 1,430.0 1,657.0 1,242.0 1,394.0 1,629.0 1,213.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2006 : : : : 2004 : 2005 1/ :-------------------: 2004 : 2005 1/ : 2006 : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- Pounds ------------- -------- 1,000 Pounds -------- : AL : 2,800 2,750 1,900 1,900 557,200 613,250 300,200 FL : 2,800 2,700 2,300 2,500 364,000 410,400 300,000 GA : 2,980 2,840 2,500 2,500 1,817,800 2,130,000 1,437,500 MS 2/ : 3,200 3,000 3,000 44,800 45,000 NM : 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 59,500 66,500 56,000 NC : 3,500 3,000 3,300 3,300 367,500 288,000 280,500 OK : 3,100 3,270 2,800 3,000 102,300 107,910 66,000 SC : 3,400 2,800 3,100 3,200 112,200 168,000 179,200 TX : 3,420 3,750 3,500 3,700 803,700 975,000 555,000 VA : 3,250 3,000 2,950 2,950 104,000 66,000 47,200 : US : 3,076 2,989 2,640 2,693 4,288,200 4,869,860 3,266,600 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. 2/ Estimates began in 2005. Canola: Area Harvested, Yield and Production by State and United States, 2004-2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : MN : 38.0 26.0 820 1,500 48,000 31,160 39,000 MT 1/ : 16.5 9.5 1,290 960 21,285 9,120 ND :1,015.0 930.0 1,440 1,200 1,222,500 1,461,600 1,116,000 : Oth Sts 2/ : 44.5 42.5 1,504 1,362 69,030 66,940 57,870 : US :1,114.0 1,008.0 1,419 1,212 1,339,530 1,580,985 1,221,990 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates began as part of the federal program in 2005. 2/ For 2004, Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, KS, MI, MT, NY, OR, PA, SC, SD, and WA. For 2005 and 2006, Other States include ID, MI, OK, OR, and WA. Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 2006 : : State : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 :-------------------: 2005 : 2006 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 545.0 535.0 747 449 471 848.0 525.0 AZ : 229.0 208.0 1,289 1,338 1,338 615.0 580.0 AR : 1,040.0 1,160.0 1,016 1,034 1,076 2,202.0 2,600.0 CA : 428.0 283.0 1,194 1,272 1,272 1,065.0 750.0 FL : 85.0 104.0 762 462 577 135.0 125.0 GA : 1,210.0 1,330.0 849 614 614 2,140.0 1,700.0 KS : 66.0 110.0 638 567 524 87.7 120.0 LA : 600.0 620.0 878 890 968 1,098.0 1,250.0 MS : 1,200.0 1,210.0 859 793 833 2,147.0 2,100.0 MO : 438.0 500.0 947 1,032 989 864.0 1,030.0 NM : 51.0 50.0 1,016 1,008 979 108.0 102.0 NC : 810.0 865.0 852 832 832 1,437.0 1,500.0 OK : 240.0 220.0 716 415 458 358.0 210.0 SC : 265.0 298.0 743 693 701 410.0 435.0 TN : 635.0 695.0 848 863 863 1,122.0 1,250.0 TX : 5,600.0 4,200.0 723 617 617 8,440.0 5,400.0 VA : 92.0 104.0 955 738 822 183.0 178.0 : US :13,534.0 12,492.0 825 750 763 23,259.7 19,855.0 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 4.1 7.0 820 891 891 7.0 13.0 CA : 229.0 274.0 1,170 1,270 1,244 558.0 710.0 NM : 11.5 13.0 918 997 775 22.0 21.0 TX : 24.0 30.0 870 960 960 43.5 60.0 : US : 268.6 324.0 1,127 1,222 1,191 630.5 804.0 : All : AL : 545.0 535.0 747 449 471 848.0 525.0 AZ : 233.1 215.0 1,281 1,324 1,324 622.0 593.0 AR : 1,040.0 1,160.0 1,016 1,034 1,076 2,202.0 2,600.0 CA : 657.0 557.0 1,186 1,271 1,258 1,623.0 1,460.0 FL : 85.0 104.0 762 462 577 135.0 125.0 GA : 1,210.0 1,330.0 849 614 614 2,140.0 1,700.0 KS : 66.0 110.0 638 567 524 87.7 120.0 LA : 600.0 620.0 878 890 968 1,098.0 1,250.0 MS : 1,200.0 1,210.0 859 793 833 2,147.0 2,100.0 MO : 438.0 500.0 947 1,032 989 864.0 1,030.0 NM : 62.5 63.0 998 1,006 937 130.0 123.0 NC : 810.0 865.0 852 832 832 1,437.0 1,500.0 OK : 240.0 220.0 716 415 458 358.0 210.0 SC : 265.0 298.0 743 693 701 410.0 435.0 TN : 635.0 695.0 848 863 863 1,122.0 1,250.0 TX : 5,624.0 4,230.0 724 620 620 8,483.5 5,460.0 VA : 92.0 104.0 955 738 822 183.0 178.0 : US :13,802.6 12,816.0 831 762 774 23,890.2 20,659.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-lb. net weight bale. Cottonseed: Production, United States, 2004-2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 8,198.1 8,172.1 7,256.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2004-2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : AZ : 260 250 8.40 8.30 1,968 2,184 2,075 CA : 1,000 1,060 6.90 6.70 7,350 6,900 7,102 CO : 800 770 3.70 3.50 2,541 2,960 2,695 ID : 1,140 1,160 4.20 4.30 4,720 4,788 4,988 IL : 400 420 3.50 4.00 1,720 1,400 1,680 IN : 340 360 3.80 4.40 1,435 1,292 1,584 IA : 1,250 1,180 4.10 4.30 5,460 5,125 5,074 KS : 850 900 4.00 3.00 3,800 3,400 2,700 KY : 260 270 3.20 3.80 888 832 1,026 MI : 900 850 3.10 3.80 2,720 2,790 3,230 MN : 1,350 1,300 3.50 3.50 4,725 4,725 4,550 MO : 450 400 2.70 2.65 1,520 1,215 1,060 MT : 1,750 1,650 2.20 2.10 3,220 3,850 3,465 NE : 1,250 1,300 3.70 3.50 4,563 4,625 4,550 NV : 260 270 4.80 4.80 1,175 1,248 1,296 NM : 240 220 5.10 5.00 1,176 1,224 1,100 NY : 450 510 2.10 2.30 1,316 945 1,173 ND : 1,650 1,600 2.00 1.30 1,950 3,300 2,080 OH : 510 470 3.60 3.90 1,504 1,836 1,833 OK : 320 350 3.70 2.30 1,368 1,184 805 OR : 400 430 4.40 4.80 2,064 1,760 2,064 PA : 510 520 2.60 3.40 1,512 1,326 1,768 SD : 2,400 2,400 2.15 1.60 4,725 5,160 3,840 TX : 150 150 5.40 4.60 855 810 690 UT : 530 540 4.20 4.00 2,128 2,226 2,160 VA : 110 120 3.60 4.00 440 396 480 WA : 450 460 5.20 5.20 2,400 2,340 2,392 WI : 1,550 1,650 2.40 3.00 4,160 3,720 4,950 WY : 600 600 2.50 2.40 1,305 1,500 1,440 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 259 247 2.74 2.74 773 710 677 : US : 22,389 22,407 3.38 3.33 75,481 75,771 74,527 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AR, CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NC, RI, TN, VT, and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2006 Summary." All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2004-2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : AL : 730 710 2.70 1.40 2,295 1,971 994 AR : 1,290 1,400 1.70 1.90 3,500 2,193 2,660 CA : 550 540 3.70 3.30 1,870 2,035 1,782 CO : 750 770 1.50 1.80 1,125 1,125 1,386 GA : 550 600 3.00 2.30 1,620 1,650 1,380 ID : 270 340 2.20 2.10 630 594 714 IL : 330 350 2.30 2.40 840 759 840 IN : 310 290 2.50 2.80 868 775 812 IA : 350 420 2.10 2.10 780 735 882 KS : 2,050 2,000 1.60 1.40 4,080 3,280 2,800 KY : 2,150 2,250 2.30 2.20 5,040 4,945 4,950 LA : 350 350 2.30 2.70 1,110 805 945 MI : 250 310 2.00 2.30 550 500 713 MN : 700 720 1.90 1.50 1,170 1,330 1,080 MS : 730 780 2.90 1.40 1,656 2,117 1,092 MO : 3,550 3,550 1.55 1.70 7,900 5,503 6,035 MT : 1,250 1,100 1.60 1.60 1,540 2,000 1,760 NE : 1,600 1,650 1.45 1.30 1,860 2,320 2,145 NY : 1,200 1,300 1.40 1.80 1,600 1,680 2,340 NC : 680 760 2.40 2.30 1,750 1,632 1,748 ND : 1,380 1,360 1.70 1.00 1,716 2,346 1,360 OH : 690 740 2.60 2.60 1,728 1,794 1,924 OK : 2,600 2,700 1.50 1.30 4,590 3,900 3,510 OR : 600 650 2.30 2.30 1,560 1,380 1,495 PA : 1,090 1,130 1.90 2.40 2,784 2,071 2,712 SD : 1,600 1,500 1.50 1.10 2,145 2,400 1,650 TN : 1,850 1,800 2.30 2.20 4,750 4,255 3,960 TX : 4,900 5,200 1.70 1.80 11,440 8,330 9,360 VA : 1,210 1,150 2.60 1.70 2,832 3,146 1,955 WA : 290 330 3.00 2.90 992 870 957 WV : 540 560 1.80 1.80 954 972 1,008 WI : 500 500 1.50 1.70 720 750 850 WY : 540 510 1.30 1.10 756 702 561 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,830 1,970 2.16 2.11 4,015 3,954 4,151 : US : 39,260 40,290 1.91 1.80 82,766 74,819 72,511 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, CT, DE, FL, ME, MD, MA, NV, NH, NJ, NM, RI, SC, UT, and VT. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2006 Summary." Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2006 : : : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 :-------------------: 2005 : 2006 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- --------- Tons --------- -- 1,000 Tons -- : CA : 44.1 43.0 38.9 36.0 37.0 1,715 1,591 CO : 34.3 38.3 24.3 23.0 21.5 833 823 ID : 167.0 187.0 27.1 27.0 27.9 4,526 5,217 MI : 152.0 152.0 21.3 21.0 21.0 3,238 3,192 MN : 460.0 496.0 20.4 23.0 23.7 9,384 11,755 MT : 49.9 53.5 22.9 27.3 28.0 1,143 1,498 NE : 45.3 58.2 20.4 22.0 22.0 924 1,280 ND : 243.0 259.0 18.9 24.0 24.0 4,593 6,216 OH 2/ : OR : 9.7 13.1 32.1 28.4 29.9 311 392 WA : 1.7 2.0 40.6 35.0 36.0 69 72 WY : 35.9 41.5 22.3 22.0 21.5 801 892 : US : 1,242.9 1,343.6 22.2 24.1 24.5 27,537 32,928 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA. 2/ No acreage reported in 2005 and 2006. Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2006 : : : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 :-------------------: 2005 : 2006 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Tons --------- -- 1,000 Tons -- : FL : 401.0 405.0 31.8 35.4 34.8 12,746 14,094 HI : 24.2 22.3 75.0 79.0 79.0 1,814 1,762 LA : 455.0 435.0 22.9 24.0 26.0 10,420 11,310 TX : 42.4 46.5 38.3 38.9 38.9 1,624 1,809 : US : 922.6 908.8 28.8 31.2 31.9 26,604 28,975 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 2/ : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 66.0 67.0 65.0 65.0 CO : 125.0 75.0 115.0 70.0 ID : 100.0 105.0 98.0 103.0 KS : 13.0 11.0 12.5 10.0 MI : 235.0 225.0 230.0 220.0 MN : 145.0 145.0 135.0 140.0 MT 3/ : 18.0 18.0 14.1 15.0 NE : 175.0 140.0 172.0 130.0 NM 3/ : 6.3 8.6 6.3 8.6 NY : 25.0 25.0 23.0 21.5 ND : 620.0 670.0 565.0 630.0 OR 3/ : 9.0 10.0 8.8 9.8 SD : 17.5 21.5 17.4 17.0 TX : 17.0 20.0 15.3 19.0 UT 3/ : 4.5 3.0 4.5 2.9 WA : 49.0 70.0 48.0 68.0 WI 3/ : 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 WY : 34.0 29.0 33.0 27.0 : US : 1,665.0 1,648.8 1,568.6 1,562.4 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield 4/ : Production 4/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Pounds ------ ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : CA : 2,130 1,900 1,385 1,235 CO : 1,650 1,900 1,898 1,330 ID : 1,900 1,850 1,862 1,906 KS : 2,200 2,100 275 210 MI : 1,700 1,800 3,910 3,960 MN : 1,800 1,750 2,430 2,450 MT 3/ : 2,000 1,900 282 285 NE : 2,250 2,050 3,870 2,665 NM 3/ : 2,200 2,100 139 181 NY : 1,230 1,400 282 301 ND : 1,520 1,050 8,588 6,615 OR 3/ : 2,000 2,100 176 206 SD : 1,730 1,600 301 272 TX : 1,520 1,600 233 304 UT 3/ : 500 400 23 12 WA : 1,650 1,700 792 1,156 WI 3/ : 2,250 2,100 128 118 WY : 2,350 2,200 776 594 : US : 1,744 1,523 27,350 23,800 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2/ Revised from the August "Crop Production" report. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 4/ Cleaned basis. Winter Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres CA : 14.0 12.0 14.0 12.0 FL : 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.5 : US : 20.0 17.7 19.8 17.5 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Cwt ------- ----- 1,000 Cwt ----- : CA : 250 260 3,500 3,120 FL : 240 250 1,392 1,375 : US : 247 257 4,892 4,495 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2006 revised. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2004-2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State:------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Acres ----- ---- Pounds --- ------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : CT : 2,450 2,600 1,656 1,681 3,667 4,056 4,370 FL 1/ : 2,500 1,100 2,200 2,400 9,800 5,500 2,640 GA : 16,000 18,000 1,735 1,900 46,690 27,760 34,200 IN 2/ : 8,610 KY : 79,700 83,000 2,186 2,234 235,003 174,260 185,420 MD 2/ : 1,870 MA : 1,190 1,150 1,570 1,690 1,917 1,868 1,943 MO 1/ : 1,350 1,600 2,075 2,300 3,335 2,801 3,680 NC : 126,000 154,000 2,213 2,192 350,560 278,900 337,600 OH : 3,400 3,100 1,980 2,000 10,976 6,732 6,200 PA : 5,000 7,900 2,140 2,056 8,100 10,700 16,240 SC : 20,000 22,000 2,100 2,100 63,450 42,000 46,200 TN : 22,950 20,000 2,251 2,429 65,381 51,670 48,580 VA : 17,140 19,850 2,354 2,344 67,285 40,351 46,535 WV 3/ : 400 1,700 1,690 680 WI 2/ : 3,541 : US : 298,080 334,300 2,171 2,194 881,875 647,278 733,608 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Estimates discontinued in 2005. 3/ Estimates discontinued in 2006. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class and Type :----------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds -- 1,000 Pounds : Class 1, Flue-cured : FL 1/ : 2,500 1,100 2,200 2,400 5,500 2,640 GA : 16,000 18,000 1,735 1,900 27,760 34,200 NC : 123,000 150,000 2,227 2,200 273,950 330,000 SC : 20,000 22,000 2,100 2,100 42,000 46,200 VA : 14,000 17,000 2,410 2,400 33,740 40,800 US : 175,500 208,100 2,182 2,181 382,950 453,840 Class 2, Fire-cured : KY : 6,000 5,300 3,400 3,400 20,400 18,020 TN : 5,500 5,600 3,000 3,100 16,500 17,360 VA : 340 350 2,150 2,100 731 735 US : 11,840 11,250 3,178 3,210 37,631 36,115 Class 3, Air-cured : Light Air-cured : Burley : KY : 70,000 73,000 2,050 2,100 143,500 153,300 MO 1/ : 1,350 1,600 2,075 2,300 2,801 3,680 NC : 3,000 4,000 1,650 1,900 4,950 7,600 OH : 3,400 3,100 1,980 2,000 6,732 6,200 PA 2/ : 2,200 5,500 2,200 2,100 4,840 11,550 TN : 17,000 14,000 2,000 2,150 34,000 30,100 VA : 2,800 2,500 2,100 2,000 5,880 5,000 WV 3/ : 400 1,700 680 US : 100,150 103,700 2,031 2,097 203,383 217,430 Southern MD Belt : PA : 1,500 1,100 2,000 1,900 3,000 2,090 Total Light Air-cured : 101,650 104,800 2,030 2,095 206,383 219,520 Dark Air-cured : KY : 3,700 4,700 2,800 3,000 10,360 14,100 TN : 450 400 2,600 2,800 1,170 1,120 VA 4/ : US : 4,150 5,100 2,778 2,984 11,530 15,220 Class 4, Cigar Filler : PA Seedleaf : PA : 1,300 1,300 2,200 2,000 2,860 2,600 Cigar 5, Cigar Filler : CT Valley Binder : CT : 1,520 1,700 1,720 1,750 2,614 2,975 MA : 900 950 1,670 1,750 1,503 1,663 US : 2,420 2,650 1,701 1,750 4,117 4,638 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper : CT Valley Shade-grown : CT : 930 900 1,550 1,550 1,442 1,395 MA : 290 200 1,260 1,400 365 280 US : 1,220 1,100 1,481 1,523 1,807 1,675 All Cigar Types : 4,940 5,050 1,778 1,765 8,784 8,913 : All Tobacco : 298,080 334,300 2,171 2,194 647,278 733,608 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Estimates began in 2005. 3/ Estimates discontinued in 2006. 4/ No sun-cured tobacco was harvested in 2005 or is expected to be harvested in 2006. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2004-05, 2005-06 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2004-05 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2004-05 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 240 250 200 9 9 8 CA 4/ : 44,000 45,500 33,000 1,650 1,706 1,238 FL 5/ : 79,100 75,000 72,000 3,560 3,375 3,240 TX : 1,500 1,400 1,540 64 60 65 US : 124,840 122,150 106,740 5,283 5,150 4,551 Valencia : AZ : 190 200 150 7 8 6 CA : 20,500 12,000 13,000 769 450 488 FL : 70,700 72,900 63,000 3,182 3,281 2,835 TX : 270 200 240 11 9 10 US : 91,660 85,300 76,390 3,969 3,748 3,339 All : AZ : 430 450 350 16 17 14 CA : 64,500 57,500 46,000 2,419 2,156 1,726 FL : 149,800 147,900 135,000 6,742 6,656 6,075 TX : 1,770 1,600 1,780 75 69 75 US : 216,500 207,450 183,130 9,252 8,898 7,890 Temples 5/ : FL : 650 700 29 32 Grapefruit : White Seedless 6/ : FL : 3,400 6,500 9,000 145 276 383 Colored Seedless : FL : 9,400 12,800 17,000 400 544 723 All : AZ : 140 100 100 5 3 3 CA : 6,100 6,000 5,700 204 201 191 FL : 12,800 19,300 26,000 545 820 1,106 TX : 6,600 5,200 6,700 264 208 268 US : 25,640 30,600 38,500 1,018 1,232 1,568 Tangerines : AZ 7/ : 400 550 400 15 21 15 CA 7/ : 2,900 3,600 3,800 109 135 143 FL : 4,450 5,500 4,600 211 261 219 US : 7,750 9,650 8,800 335 417 377 Lemons : AZ : 2,400 3,800 2,800 91 144 106 CA : 20,500 21,000 19,700 779 798 749 US : 22,900 24,800 22,500 870 942 855 Tangelos : FL : 1,550 1,400 1,100 70 63 50 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5/ Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 6/ Includes seedy. 7/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States, 2004-2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds : AZ 2/ : 37.0 22.2 30.0 AR 3/ : 1.9 CA 2/ : 355.0 355.0 360.0 CO 2/ : 28.0 31.0 16.0 CT 2/ : 19.5 15.5 16.0 GA 2/ : 12.0 14.0 12.0 ID 2/ : 80.0 70.0 70.0 IL 2/ : 56.5 49.0 53.0 IN 2/ : 60.0 50.0 57.0 IA 2/ : 5.3 2.1 4.5 KS 3/ : 2.8 KY 2/ : 7.7 5.5 7.0 ME 2/ : 47.0 31.0 28.0 MD 2/ : 34.1 41.0 38.0 MA 2/ : 42.0 28.5 31.0 MI : 730.0 780.0 800.0 MN 2/ : 25.0 22.0 23.0 MO 2/ : 48.0 49.0 57.0 NH 2/ : 30.5 21.0 27.0 NJ 2/ : 40.0 45.0 45.0 NM 3/ : 4.6 NY : 1,280.0 1,040.0 1,120.0 NC : 155.0 130.0 175.0 OH 2/ : 90.0 99.0 104.0 OR 2/ : 163.0 145.0 155.0 PA : 405.0 515.0 450.0 RI 2/ : 2.2 1.6 1.7 SC 2/ : 6.0 4.0 3.0 TN 2/ : 11.0 8.5 11.0 UT 2/ : 32.0 38.0 22.0 VT 2/ : 41.5 33.0 34.5 VA : 300.0 280.0 240.0 WA : 6,150.0 5,800.0 5,700.0 WV : 81.0 87.0 90.0 WI 2/ : 57.0 52.0 62.0 : US : 10,440.6 9,864.9 9,842.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ Estimates discontinued in 2005. Pecans: Utilized Production by Variety, State, and United States, 2004-2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds Improved Varieties 1/ : AL : 1,000 3,200 5,100 AZ : 14,000 22,000 15,000 AR : 1,000 1,100 850 CA : 3,500 3,900 3,200 FL : 400 300 400 GA : 42,000 72,000 40,000 LA : 2,500 1,000 4,000 MS : 700 800 2,000 MO 2/ : 200 150 NM : 39,000 65,000 46,000 NC : 70 1,650 1,000 OK : 6,000 6,000 6,000 SC : 800 1,500 1,000 TX : 28,000 50,000 25,000 : US : 138,970 228,650 149,700 : Native & Seedling : AL : 100 800 900 AR : 700 1,200 750 FL : 100 700 500 GA : 3,000 8,000 5,000 KS : 1,800 3,200 2,000 LA : 6,500 4,000 15,000 MS : 300 200 500 MO 2/ : 2,400 1,350 NC : 30 350 200 OK : 22,000 15,000 14,000 SC : 300 700 500 TX : 12,000 15,000 11,000 : US : 46,830 51,550 51,700 : All Pecans : AL : 1,100 4,000 6,000 AZ : 14,000 22,000 15,000 AR : 1,700 2,300 1,600 CA : 3,500 3,900 3,200 FL : 500 1,000 900 GA : 45,000 80,000 45,000 KS : 1,800 3,200 2,000 LA : 9,000 5,000 19,000 MS : 1,000 1,000 2,500 MO 2/ : 2,600 1,500 NM : 39,000 65,000 46,000 NC : 100 2,000 1,200 OK : 28,000 21,000 20,000 SC : 1,100 2,200 1,500 TX : 40,000 65,000 36,000 : US : 185,800 280,200 201,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 2/ Estimates began in 2005. Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2004-2005 and Forecasted October 1, 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :-------------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : AZ 1/ : 4,000 1,000 900 AR 1/ : 3,000 1,900 2,100 CA : All Types : 5,623,000 6,978,000 5,750,000 Wine : 2,815,000 3,805,000 3,000,000 Table 2/ : 770,000 867,000 750,000 Raisin 2/ : 2,038,000 2,306,000 2,000,000 GA 1/ : 3,300 3,500 3,300 MI : 62,500 102,700 30,000 MO 1/ : 3,630 3,900 4,400 NY : 142,000 178,000 154,000 NC 1/ : 3,500 3,900 5,200 OH 1/ : 4,800 8,500 6,000 OR 1/ : 24,000 27,000 31,000 PA : 86,800 90,000 75,000 TX 1/ : 8,800 9,700 4,600 VA 1/ : 3,700 5,600 6,500 WA : All Types : 267,000 415,000 350,000 Wine : 107,000 110,000 120,000 Juice : 160,000 305,000 230,000 : US : 6,240,030 7,828,700 6,423,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Fresh basis. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Aug : 2,350 2,160 1,435 1,335 2,360 2,105 Sep : 2,330 2,140 1,445 1,335 2,665 2,535 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Prunes (Dried Plums): Total Production, California, 2004-2005 and Forecasted 2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : Prunes (Dried Basis) : 49,000 90,000 170,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Survey of prune growers conducted from August 21 through September 13. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2005-2006 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3,875.0 3,452.0 3,269.0 2,951.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 81,759.0 78,561.0 75,107.0 71,047.0 Corn for Silage : 5,920.0 Hay, All : 61,649.0 62,697.0 Alfalfa : 22,389.0 22,407.0 All Other : 39,260.0 40,290.0 Oats : 4,246.0 4,168.0 1,823.0 1,576.0 Proso Millet : 565.0 575.0 515.0 Rice : 3,384.0 2,841.0 3,364.0 2,823.0 Rye : 1,433.0 1,396.0 279.0 274.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 6,454.0 6,319.0 5,736.0 5,319.0 Sorghum for Silage : 311.0 Wheat, All : 57,229.0 57,344.0 50,119.0 46,810.0 Winter : 40,433.0 40,575.0 33,794.0 31,117.0 Durum : 2,760.0 1,870.0 2,716.0 1,815.0 Other Spring : 14,036.0 14,899.0 13,609.0 13,878.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,159.0 1,045.0 1,114.0 1,008.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 983.0 718.0 955.0 704.0 Mustard Seed : 49.0 42.5 44.6 40.5 Peanuts : 1,657.0 1,242.0 1,629.0 1,213.0 Rapeseed : 2.4 1.8 2.0 1.6 Safflower : 165.0 221.0 160.0 212.0 Soybeans for Beans : 72,032.0 75,565.0 71,251.0 74,505.0 Sunflower : 2,709.0 1,984.0 2,610.0 1,864.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 14,245.4 15,281.0 13,802.6 12,816.0 Upland : 13,975.0 14,955.0 13,534.0 12,492.0 Amer-Pima : 270.4 326.0 268.6 324.0 Sugarbeets : 1,299.8 1,362.8 1,242.9 1,343.6 Sugarcane : 922.6 908.8 Tobacco : 298.1 334.3 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 42.5 41.0 24.5 24.5 Dry Edible Beans : 1,665.0 1,648.8 1,568.6 1,562.4 Dry Edible Peas : 808.0 895.0 765.9 856.6 Lentils : 450.0 420.0 439.0 402.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.1 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 0.1 Hops : 29.5 28.9 Peppermint Oil : 76.0 Potatoes, All : 1,109.1 1,138.7 1,086.9 1,116.4 Winter : 20.0 17.7 19.8 17.5 Spring : 68.0 71.1 66.7 69.7 Summer : 53.4 59.4 51.4 54.8 Fall : 967.7 990.5 949.0 974.4 Spearmint Oil : 17.7 Sweet Potatoes : 91.0 96.0 88.4 93.4 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2005-2006 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 64.8 61.0 211,896 180,051 Corn for Grain :" : 147.9 153.5 11,112,072 10,905,194 Corn for Silage :Tons : 18.0 106,311 Hay, All :" : 2.44 2.35 150,590 147,038 Alfalfa :" : 3.38 3.33 75,771 74,527 All Other :" : 1.91 1.80 74,819 72,511 Oats :Bu : 63.0 59.5 114,878 93,764 Proso Millet :" : 26.3 13,545 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 6,636 6,811 223,235 192,263 Rye :Bu : 27.0 26.3 7,537 7,193 Sorghum for Grain :" : 68.7 56.6 393,893 301,217 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 13.6 4,218 Wheat, All :Bu : 42.0 38.7 2,104,690 1,812,036 Winter :" : 44.4 41.7 1,499,129 1,298,081 Durum :" : 37.2 29.5 101,105 53,475 Other Spring :" : 37.1 33.2 504,456 460,480 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,419 1,212 1,580,985 1,221,990 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 8,172.1 7,256.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 20.6 19,695 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 787 35,114 Peanuts :" : 2,989 2,693 4,869,860 3,266,600 Rapeseed :" : 1,500 3,000 Safflower :" : 1,203 192,545 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 43.0 42.8 3,063,237 3,188,576 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,540 1,134 4,018,355 2,113,625 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 831 774 23,890.2 20,659.0 Upland 2/ :" : 825 763 23,259.7 19,855.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,127 1,191 630.5 804.0 Sugarbeets :Tons : 22.2 24.5 27,537 32,928 Sugarcane :" : 28.8 31.9 26,604 28,975 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,171 2,194 647,278 733,608 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,253 307 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,744 1,523 27,350 23,800 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,828 14,003 Lentils 2/ :" : 1,176 5,163 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 755 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,340 8,200 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 42,500 43,000 5,100 4,300 Hops :" : 1,796 1,965 52,914.5 56,836.4 Peppermint Oil :" : 92 6,980 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 390 423,926 Winter :" : 247 257 4,892 4,495 Spring :" : 281 296 18,724 20,646 Summer :" : 342 342 17,567 18,731 Fall :" : 403 382,743 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 109 1,933 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 178 15,730 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :-------------------------------------------- : : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Tons : 1,018 1,232 1,568 Lemons : " : 870 942 855 Oranges 3/ : " : 9,252 8,898 7,890 Tangelos (FL) : " : 70 63 50 Tangerines : " : 335 417 377 Temples (FL) 3/ : " : 29 32 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 9,864.9 9,842.7 Apricots : Tons : 81.7 44.5 Bananas (HI) : Lbs : 20,900.0 Grapes : Tons : 7,828.7 6,423.0 Olives (CA) : " : 142.0 50.0 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 32,900.0 Peaches : Tons : 1,184.6 1,053.8 Pears : " : 825.3 835.3 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 90.0 170.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 9.1 24.0 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lbs : 915,000 1,050,000 Hazelnuts (OR) : Tons : 27.6 41.0 Pecans : Lbs : 280,200 201,400 Walnuts (CA) : Tons : 355.0 350.0 Maple Syrup : Gals : 1,242 1,449 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2/ Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2005-2006 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,568,170 1,396,990 1,322,930 1,194,240 Corn for Grain 2/ :33,087,050 31,792,850 30,395,050 28,752,010 Corn for Silage : 2,395,760 Hay, All 3/ : 24,948,730 25,372,850 Alfalfa : 9,060,600 9,067,890 All Other : 15,888,130 16,304,960 Oats : 1,718,310 1,686,750 737,750 637,790 Proso Millet : 228,650 232,700 208,420 Rice : 1,369,470 1,149,720 1,361,380 1,142,440 Rye : 579,920 564,950 112,910 110,890 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 2,611,870 2,557,240 2,321,300 2,152,550 Sorghum for Silage : 125,860 Wheat, All 3/ :23,160,000 23,206,540 20,282,660 18,943,540 Winter :16,362,830 16,420,300 13,676,090 12,592,740 Durum : 1,116,940 756,770 1,099,140 734,510 Other Spring : 5,680,230 6,029,480 5,507,430 5,616,290 : Oilseeds : Canola : 469,040 422,900 450,820 407,930 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 397,810 290,570 386,480 284,900 Mustard Seed : 19,830 17,200 18,050 16,390 Peanuts : 670,570 502,620 659,240 490,890 Rapeseed : 970 730 810 650 Safflower : 66,770 89,440 64,750 85,790 Soybeans for Beans :29,150,630 30,580,400 28,834,570 30,151,430 Sunflower : 1,096,310 802,900 1,056,240 754,340 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 5,764,970 6,184,070 5,585,770 5,186,510 Upland : 5,655,540 6,052,140 5,477,070 5,055,390 Amer-Pima : 109,430 131,930 108,700 131,120 Sugarbeets : 526,020 551,510 502,990 543,740 Sugarcane : 373,370 367,780 Tobacco : 120,630 135,290 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 17,200 16,590 9,910 9,910 Dry Edible Beans : 673,810 667,250 634,800 632,290 Dry Edible Peas : 326,990 362,200 309,950 346,660 Lentils : 182,110 169,970 177,660 162,690 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,470 Ginger Root (HI) : 50 40 Hops : 11,920 11,710 Peppermint Oil : 30,760 Potatoes, All 3/ : 448,840 460,820 439,860 451,800 Winter : 8,090 7,160 8,010 7,080 Spring : 27,520 28,770 26,990 28,210 Summer : 21,610 24,040 20,800 22,180 Fall : 391,620 400,850 384,050 394,330 Spearmint Oil : 7,160 Sweet Potatoes : 36,830 38,850 35,770 37,800 Taro (HI) 5/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2005-2006 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.49 3.28 4,613,490 3,920,150 Corn for Grain : 9.29 9.63 282,259,630 277,004,690 Corn for Silage : 40.26 96,443,720 Hay, All 2/ : 5.48 5.26 136,612,950 133,390,630 Alfalfa : 7.59 7.46 68,738,290 67,609,760 All Other : 4.27 4.03 67,874,660 65,780,870 Oats : 2.26 2.13 1,667,450 1,360,980 Proso Millet : 1.47 307,200 Rice : 7.44 7.63 10,125,770 8,720,900 Rye : 1.70 1.65 191,450 182,710 Sorghum for Grain : 4.31 3.55 10,005,340 7,651,260 Sorghum for Silage : 30.40 3,826,510 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.82 2.60 57,280,270 49,315,540 Winter : 2.98 2.81 40,799,610 35,327,980 Durum : 2.50 1.98 2,751,630 1,455,350 Other Spring : 2.49 2.23 13,729,040 12,532,210 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.59 1.36 717,120 554,290 Cottonseed 3/ : 7,413,600 6,582,530 Flaxseed : 1.29 500,280 Mustard Seed : 0.88 15,930 Peanuts : 3.35 3.02 2,208,930 1,481,700 Rapeseed : 1.68 1,360 Safflower : 1.35 87,340 Soybeans for Beans : 2.89 2.88 83,367,650 86,778,820 Sunflower : 1.73 1.27 1,822,700 958,720 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.93 0.87 5,201,480 4,497,970 Upland : 0.92 0.86 5,064,200 4,322,920 Amer-Pima : 1.26 1.34 137,280 175,050 Sugarbeets : 49.67 54.94 24,981,150 29,871,780 Sugarcane : 64.64 71.47 24,134,740 26,285,680 Tobacco : 2.43 2.46 293,600 332,760 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.40 13,930 Dry Edible Beans : 1.95 1.71 1,240,580 1,079,550 Dry Edible Peas : 2.05 635,170 Lentils : 1.32 234,190 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 34,250 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.51 3,720 Ginger Root (HI) : 47.64 48.20 2,310 1,950 Hops : 2.01 2.20 24,000 25,780 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,170 Potatoes, All 2/ : 43.72 19,228,960 Winter : 27.69 28.79 221,900 203,890 Spring : 31.46 33.20 849,310 936,490 Summer : 38.31 38.31 796,830 849,620 Fall : 45.20 17,360,930 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 880 Sweet Potatoes : 19.94 713,500 Taro (HI) 3/ : 1,950 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 923,510 1,117,650 1,422,470 Lemons : 789,250 854,570 775,640 Oranges 3/ : 8,393,270 8,072,130 7,157,690 Tangelos (FL) : 63,500 57,150 45,360 Tangerines : 303,910 378,300 342,010 Temples (FL) 3/ : 26,310 29,030 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,474,640 4,464,570 Apricots : 74,070 40,370 Bananas (HI) : 9,480 Grapes : 7,102,080 5,826,850 Olives (CA) : 128,820 45,360 Papayas (HI) : 14,920 Peaches : 1,074,610 955,990 Pears : 748,720 757,780 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 81,650 154,220 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 8,260 21,770 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 415,040 476,270 Hazelnuts (OR) : 25,040 37,190 Pecans : 127,100 91,350 Walnuts (CA) : 322,050 317,510 Maple Syrup : 6,210 7,240 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2006 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2/ Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with 2006-07 season. Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 10 corn producing States during 2006. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual field counts from this survey. Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre, Selected States, 2002-2006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Sep : 25,050 26,700 27,350 26,950 27,600 : Oct : 25,050 26,700 27,400 26,850 27,450 : Nov : 25,000 26,650 27,400 26,850 : Final : 25,000 26,650 27,400 26,850 : : IN : Sep : 23,900 25,350 26,200 24,850 25,850 : Oct : 23,650 25,400 25,950 24,600 25,750 : Nov : 23,650 25,350 26,050 24,650 : Final : 23,650 25,350 26,050 24,650 : : IA : Sep : 25,950 26,700 27,350 27,150 27,350 : Oct : 25,800 26,550 27,550 27,100 27,350 : Nov : 25,800 26,600 27,500 27,100 : Final : 25,800 26,600 27,500 27,100 : : KS 1/ : Sep : 22,100 21,100 20,850 : Oct : 22,150 21,000 20,750 : Nov : 22,150 20,900 : Final : 22,150 20,900 : : MN : Sep : 26,550 28,300 29,000 28,000 28,050 : Oct : 26,150 28,650 29,250 27,900 28,250 : Nov : 26,100 28,600 29,150 28,050 : Final : 26,100 28,600 29,200 28,050 : : MO 2/ : Sep : 24,400 22,550 23,850 : Oct : 24,250 22,600 23,800 : Nov : 24,250 22,600 : Final : 24,250 22,600 : : NE : Sep : 21,650 22,950 23,650 23,250 23,850 All : Oct : 21,250 22,650 24,000 22,800 23,700 : Nov : 21,200 22,600 24,050 22,800 : Final : 21,200 22,600 24,050 22,800 : : NE : Sep : 25,800 26,550 26,550 26,250 26,750 Irrigated : Oct : 25,700 26,350 26,700 25,900 26,600 : Nov : 25,650 26,300 26,650 25,900 : Final : 25,650 26,300 26,650 25,900 : : NE : Sep : 16,700 18,300 19,100 19,550 19,400 Non-Irrigated: Oct : 15,950 17,850 19,800 18,950 19,150 : Nov : 15,950 17,800 20,000 18,900 : Final : 15,950 17,800 20,000 18,900 : : OH : Sep : 23,700 25,500 25,950 24,800 25,200 : Oct : 22,400 25,700 26,000 24,700 25,350 : Nov : 22,350 25,750 26,000 24,650 : Final : 22,350 25,750 26,050 24,650 : : SD 2/ : Sep : 21,950 23,150 22,050 : Oct : 22,700 23,100 21,900 : Nov : 22,700 23,050 : Final : 22,700 23,050 : : WI : Sep : 25,950 26,150 25,600 26,550 26,750 : Oct : 25,050 26,300 27,150 26,350 26,850 : Nov : 25,250 26,250 26,800 26,350 : Final : 25,250 26,250 26,800 26,350 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Field counts began in 2004. 2/ Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 1996. Soybeans: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 11 soybean producing States during 2006. Randomly selected plots in soybean fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet, Selected States, 2002-2006 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR 1/ 2/: Sep : : Oct : 2,446 1,796 1,645 : Nov : 2,483 1,823 : Final : 2,511 1,824 : : IL : Sep : 1,952 1,800 2,070 1,973 2,035 : Oct : 1,785 1,606 1,923 1,820 1,890 : Nov : 1,795 1,634 1,943 1,858 : Final : 1,802 1,634 1,947 1,858 : : IN : Sep : 1,773 1,786 1,909 1,855 1,927 : Oct : 1,677 1,692 1,866 1,790 1,893 : Nov : 1,680 1,582 1,917 1,899 : Final : 1,680 1,582 1,917 1,899 : : IA : Sep : 1,988 1,749 1,772 1,969 1,846 : Oct : 1,828 1,629 1,731 1,935 1,758 : Nov : 1,867 1,647 1,737 1,968 : Final : 1,867 1,647 1,741 1,970 : : KS 3/ : Sep : 1,482 1,490 1,564 : Oct : 1,588 1,431 1,509 : Nov : 1,639 1,547 : Final : 1,636 1,546 : : MN : Sep : 1,688 1,582 1,487 1,684 1,612 : Oct : 1,785 1,417 1,406 1,598 1,586 : Nov : 1,739 1,440 1,446 1,640 : Final : 1,715 1,440 1,435 1,640 : : MO : Sep : 1,427 1,144 1,798 1,458 1,631 : Oct : 1,609 1,455 1,943 1,585 1,746 : Nov : 1,681 1,547 1,998 1,679 : Final : 1,705 1,523 2,038 1,652 : : NE : Sep : 1,548 1,727 1,835 1,862 1,740 : Oct : 1,517 1,642 1,836 1,903 1,801 : Nov : 1,587 1,636 1,895 1,920 : Final : 1,592 1,636 1,895 1,920 : : ND 3/ : Sep : 1,114 1,526 1,169 : Oct : 1,148 1,471 1,241 : Nov : 1,243 1,496 : Final : 1,242 1,496 : : OH : Sep : 1,593 1,791 1,808 2,040 1,857 : Oct : 1,495 1,898 1,873 1,890 1,895 : Nov : 1,499 1,764 1,840 1,974 : Final : 1,492 1,752 1,837 1,981 : : SD 3/ : Sep : 1,248 1,634 1,318 : Oct : 1,332 1,617 1,345 : Nov : 1,302 1,605 : Final : 1,308 1,556 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ September data not available due to plant immaturity. 2/ Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 2002. 3/ Field counts began in 2004. Cotton: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 7 cotton producing States during 2006. Randomly selected plots in cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, Selected States, 2002-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2002 : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep : 840 798 864 811 859 : Oct : 763 755 771 728 814 : Nov : 784 744 753 733 : Dec : 772 744 754 733 : Final : 772 744 754 733 : : CA : Sep : 945 973 954 993 911 : Oct : 1,041 945 952 926 869 : Nov : 1,009 893 945 1,002 : Dec : 1,011 893 948 1,011 : Final : 1,011 893 948 1,011 : : GA : Sep : 569 559 646 667 648 : Oct : 604 646 690 689 675 : Nov : 591 643 686 767 : Dec : 600 665 687 767 : Final : 600 665 687 767 : : LA : Sep : 663 681 635 746 760 : Oct : 756 778 707 768 781 : Nov : 749 775 691 775 : Dec : 742 775 691 775 : Final : 742 775 691 775 : : MS : Sep : 802 837 808 818 700 : Oct : 783 824 789 729 699 : Nov : 768 811 780 724 : Dec : 767 808 780 722 : Final : 767 808 780 722 : : NC : Sep : 636 628 758 799 637 : Oct : 629 630 719 693 641 : Nov : 560 632 732 721 : Dec : 567 632 733 721 : Final : 567 632 733 721 : : TX : Sep : 536 465 639 620 530 : Oct : 511 431 672 516 477 : Nov : 520 429 593 586 : Dec : 497 435 624 585 : Final : 497 435 624 585 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs per 40 feet of row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls. September Weather Summary September showers slowed summer crop harvesting and winter wheat planting in parts of the Midwest, but generally dry weather returned to the Southeast. Midwestern fieldwork delays were most significant in the Ohio Valley, while a late-month drying trend favored an acceleration of corn and soybean harvesting across the western Corn Belt. Meanwhile, harvesting advanced with few delays from eastern Texas to the southern Atlantic Coast, although underlying long-term drought remained a concern across much of the South. Farther west, locally heavy rain on the Plains boosted soil moisture for winter wheat establishment and promoted further recovery of drought-stressed pastures. Dryness returned, however, to parts of the Plains, including much of Kansas and Oklahoma. Elsewhere, showery conditions across the Rockies and Intermountain West contrasted with mild, dry weather in the West Coast States. By month's end, some Northwestern winter grain areas remained unfavorably dry for proper autumn crop establishment. During September, cool weather took hold across much of the U.S. In fact, monthly temperatures averaged at least 4 degrees F below normal in a broad area across the Nation's mid-section, including the central Plains. Consequently, the season's first freeze arrived early across parts of the High Plains and Intermountain West, although summer crops were largely mature enough to withstand the early-season chill without adverse effects. September Agricultural Summary Temperatures averaged below normal nearly nationwide, with the exception of the Pacific Coast States, the northern Rocky Mountains, New England, and the Florida peninsula. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall limited fieldwork in the Ohio River Valley and middle Atlantic Coast States. Precipitation was lighter across the Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the Great Plains, but enough to slow crop harvest. Conditions were mostly dry from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific Coast, particularly in California, where less than one-tenth inch of precipitation was received nearly statewide. In the Delta and Southeast, crop harvest progressed rapidly, unhindered by moderate rainfall. The Nation's corn crop continued to develop ahead of normal, with 88 percent of the crop at or beyond maturity by month's end. This was the same as last year but 6 percentage points ahead of normal. Maturation was at or ahead of normal in all States except Indiana. Despite the rapid maturation of the crop, harvest progressed behind normal during the month, slowed by wet conditions in the Corn Belt and Ohio River Valley. By October 1, growers had harvested 20 percent of their crop, compared with 25 percent last year and 23 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest trailed behind normal in most States, and only in Missouri was progress more than 1 point ahead of normal. Sorghum acreage turning color or beyond progressed behind the normal pace, reaching 89 percent by October 1, four points behind last year and the 5-year average. Though most States were at or ahead of the normal coloring pace, the two largest producing States, Kansas and Texas, trailed 6 and 2 points behind normal, respectively. Maturation of the crop also lagged behind normal. By month's end, 60 percent of the acreage was at or beyond maturity, 5 points behind last year and 7 points behind normal. The crop was one week behind the normal maturation pace in Kansas and over two weeks behind in Oklahoma. Harvest progressed slightly ahead of normal through mid-month but had slipped behind normal by month's end. By October 1, growers had harvested 38 percent of their acreage, compared with 36 percent last year and 40 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest was behind normal in most States, trailing three weeks behind in Oklahoma. Planting of the 2007 winter wheat crop was slowed by wet conditions in the eastern Corn Belt and by lack of soil moisture in parts of the Pacific Northwest and Great Plains. By October 1, fifty-four percent of the acreage had been seeded, 1 point ahead of last year but 2 points behind normal. Planting progressed well ahead of normal in Oregon, where dry weather favored fieldwork. However, most other States were at or behind the normal planting pace. Emergence also progressed behind normal, reaching 24 percent by month's end, the same as last year but 3 points behind the 5-year average. Emergence trailed behind the normal pace in most States and had not yet begun in California, North Carolina, and Ohio. The rice harvest progressed ahead of normal, reaching 79 percent complete by month's end, 8 points ahead of last year and 3 points ahead of normal. In the Mississippi Delta, harvest proceeded ahead of normal. However, California's crop, planted late due to wet conditions early in the season, was behind the normal pace. The soybean crop, like corn, matured ahead of normal but was harvested behind the normal pace. By October 1, eighty-seven percent of the crop was dropping leaves or beyond, compared with 91 percent last year and 84 percent for the 5-year average. Progress was at or ahead of normal in all States except Indiana, Kentucky, Kansas, and Ohio. In the Delta, Arkansas's and Louisiana's crop led the normal pace by 12 and 14 points, respectively. Meanwhile, harvest fell behind normal, delayed by wet conditions in the Corn Belt and Ohio Valley. By month's end, growers had harvested just 19 percent of their acreage, 14 points behind last year and 7 points behind normal. Though growers in the Delta were well ahead of their normal harvest pace, progress trailed behind normal in most other States. In Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, and South Dakota, harvest lagged a week or more behind normal. The Nation's sunflower harvest was just getting underway at month's end. On October 1, growers had reaped 5 percent of their acreage, 1 point behind last year and 3 points behind normal. Harvest was most advanced in Colorado, at 12 percent complete, while in the leading producing State, North Dakota, 3 percent of the acreage had been harvested. The peanut harvest started slowly and continued to fall behind during the month. By month's end, just 11 percent of the acreage had been combined, compared with 22 percent last year and 27 percent for the 5-year average. Harvest progress was over a week behind normal nationwide and over two weeks behind in Alabama and Florida. Among the eight largest producing States, only Virginia growers were ahead of their normal harvest pace. The Nation's cotton crop developed ahead of normal during the month. By October 1, bolls were open on 82 percent of the acreage, 6 points ahead of last year and 3 points ahead of normal. Though behind normal in a few States, bolls opened ahead of normal in Texas and across most of the Delta, Southeast, and Atlantic Coast States. Unlike other summer crops, harvest of the cotton crop progressed ahead of normal. By month's end, growers had picked 24 percent of their acreage, compared with 19 percent for last year and the 5-year average. Harvest was most advanced in the Mississippi Delta, at 31 percent complete in Arkansas, 59 percent complete in Louisiana, and 58 percent complete in Mississippi, all well ahead of normal. The sugarbeet harvest began ahead of the normal pace but slowed to around normal by month's end. By October 1, fifteen percent of the acreage had been harvested, 6 points ahead of last year but the same as the 5-year average. Harvest was most advanced in the Red River Valley but was slightly behind normal in the region, while Idaho growers were slightly ahead of their normal harvest pace. Corn for Grain: Based on administrative data, acreage updates were made in several States bringing total corn planted acres to 78.6 million acres, down 1 percent from June and 4 percent lower than 2005. Area harvested and to be harvested for grain was also updated in a number of States and is now forecast at 71.0 million acres, down 1 percent from September and 5 percent below 2005. The October 1 corn objective yield forecast number of ears per acres for the combined 10 objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin) is the second highest on record, up 2 percent from last year but down 1 percent from the record high set in 2004. Indicated ears per acre are higher than last year in all objective yield States, except Kansas and South Dakota. Ear counts in Illinois are the highest on record. The corn crop matured rapidly during September, despite below normal temperatures across much of the Corn Belt, Great Plains, and Ohio Valley. Moderate to heavy precipitation in these areas during September also delayed corn harvest activities. By the end of the month, 88 percent of the crop was mature or beyond, the same as last year but 6 percentage points ahead of normal. Maturation was at or ahead of the normal pace in all States, except Indiana. However, despite crop development and maturation progressing ahead of normal, harvest trailed behind normal in most States due to wet field conditions. Harvest was 20 percent complete on October 1 compared with 25 percent last year and 23 percent for the 5-year average. Missouri was the only State leading the normal pace by more than one point. Sorghum: Production is forecast at 301 million bushels, down 1 percent from last month and down 24 percent from last year. Area for harvest as grain is forecast at 5.32 million acres, a slight increase from September but down 7 percent from last year. Based on administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States. Planted area was updated to 6.32 million acres, an increase of less than one percent from June but down 2 percent from 2005. Based on October 1 conditions, the sorghum yield forecast is 56.6 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from September and down 12.1 bushels from last year. Yields are either decreasing or unchanged from September in all of the major sorghum producing States except Nebraska, which is up 1.0 bushel from last month. The yield in Kansas, the largest producing State, is expected to be 60.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from September but down 15.0 bushels from 2005. Producers in Texas, the second largest sorghum producing State, expect a yield of 48.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month but down 12.0 bushels from last year. As of October 1, harvest had begun in all of the top 11 producing States, except for New Mexico. In these States, the sorghum crop was 60 percent mature, 5 points behind last year and 7 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest, at 38 percent complete, was ahead of last year's pace of 36 percent complete but behind the 5-year average of 40 percent. Harvest was complete in Louisiana and 93 percent complete in Arkansas. In Kansas, widespread but light precipitation received during the month of September slowed harvest slightly, as only 20 percent of the crop was harvested, 6 points behind the 5-year average. The rainfall in Kansas improved the crop condition slightly, but the condition of the crop was still well below last year with only 33 percent rated as good to excellent compared with 45 percent at the same time in 2005. The harvest in Texas, at 70 percent complete, was ahead of the 5-year average of 65 percent as harvest conditions during September were favorable. Rice: Production is forecast at 192 million cwt, down 1 percent from the September forecast and down 14 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 2.82 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 16 percent from 2005. As of October 1, the U.S. yield is forecast at 6,811 pounds per acre, down 35 pounds per acre from last month but up 175 pounds from last year. As of October 1, the rice harvest in Louisiana and Texas was virtually complete at 99 percent harvested. Texas equaled their 5-year average while Louisiana exceeded the 5-year average by 3 percentage points. Arkansas, Mississippi, and Missouri are ahead of their respective 5-year averages. In California, harvest was at 41 percent as of October 1, lagging their 5-year average by 4 percentage points. Soybeans: Updates to planted acreage were made in several States based on administrative data. Planted area was updated to 75.6 million acres, an increase of 1 percent from the June forecast and up 5 percent from 2005. Area for harvest is forecast at 74.5 million acres, up 1 percent from September and up 5 percent from last year. Record high yields are forecast in Illinois, Kentucky, and Nebraska, along with record tying yields in Michigan, New York, and South Carolina. The October 1 objective yield data for the combined seven major soybean producing States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio) indicate slightly lower pod counts from last year's record high. Pod counts are up from last year in Illinois and Missouri, but down from last year in the other five major producing States. As of October 1, eighty-seven percent of the acreage was dropping leaves or beyond, 4 points behind last year's pace but 3 points ahead of the 5-year average. Sixty-two percent of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, 3 percentage points above the rating at the beginning of September and 6 points above the same week in 2005. With the exception of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Michigan, crop conditions improved or were unchanged from the beginning of September in the Corn Belt, the central and northern Great Plains, and the Delta States. As of October 1, soybean harvest was progressing behind normal with 19 percent harvested, compared with the 5-year average of 26 percent. Sunflower: The first production forecast for 2006 is 2.11 billion pounds, down 47 percent from 2005 but 3 percent above 2004. Area planted, at 1.98 million acres, is up 4 percent from the June estimate but down 27 percent from last year. Sunflower farmers expect to harvest 1.86 million acres, up 4 percent from June but down 29 percent from the 2005 acreage. The October yield forecast, at 1,134 pounds, is 406 pounds less than the 2005 yield. As of October 1, lower yields are expected in six of the seven major sunflower-producing States, with only Minnesota farmers expecting higher yields compared with last year. Conditions were hot and dry this summer across most of the Great Plains, resulting in reduced yield expectations compared with last year when Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota experienced record high yields. In North Dakota, the yield is forecast at 1,143 pounds per acre, down 443 pounds from the 2005 yield. As of October 1, harvest progress in Kansas and South Dakota was lagging behind last year's pace and the 5-year average, while harvest in Colorado and North Dakota was ahead of last year and equal to the 5-year average. Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.27 billion pounds, down 33 percent from last year's crop but up 2 percent from last month. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.21 million acres, unchanged from September but down 26 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 2,693 pounds per acre, up 53 pounds from last month but down 296 pounds from 2005. Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina) is expected to total 2.26 billion pounds, up 1 percent from August but down 33 percent from last year's level. Expected acreage for harvest, at 924,000, is unchanged from September but down 23 percent from 2005. Yields in the region are expected to average 2,448 pounds per acre, 32 pounds above last month but 360 pounds below 2005. As of October 1, peanut harvest was 6 percent complete in Alabama, 15 percent complete in Florida, and 12 percent complete in Georgia. Alabama and Florida lagged their 5-year averages by at least 30 percentage points, while Georgia lagged its 5-year average by 18 percentage points. Peanut harvest in South Carolina, at 24 percent complete, was closer to normal but still lagged its 5-year average by 5 percentage points. Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 328 million pounds, unchanged from September but down 7 percent from 2005. Expected acreage for harvest, at 101,000, is unchanged from September but down 14 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3,245 pounds per acre, unchanged from last month but up 245 pounds from 2005. As of October 1, peanut harvest was 12 percent complete in North Carolina and 18 percent complete in Virginia. North Carolina lagged slightly behind their 5-year average, while Virginia was 6 percentage points ahead of their 5-year average. Southwest peanut production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 677 million pounds, up 5 percent from last month but down 41 percent from 2005. The expected acreage for harvest in the region totals 188,000, unchanged from September but down 40 percent from 2005. Yields are expected to average 3,601 pounds per acre for the region, up 183 pounds from September but down 83 pounds from last year's level. On October 1, peanut harvest in Oklahoma and Texas was just under way with 3 percent and 5 percent complete, respectively. Canola: The first production forecast for 2006 is 1.22 billion pounds, down 23 percent from 2005. Area planted, at 1.05 million acres, is up 3 percent from the June estimate but down 10 percent from last year. Canola farmers expect to harvest 1.01 million acres, up 3 percent from June but down 10 percent from 2005. The October yield forecast, at 1,212 pounds per acre, is 207 pounds below last year's yield. If realized, the U.S. yield will be the second lowest on record since estimates began in 1991. North Dakota's yield, at 1,200 pounds per acre, is down 240 pounds from last year as hot, dry weather during the June and July decreased yields and led to an early harvest. If realized, this will be the second lowest yield on record for North Dakota since estimates began in 1991. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested area, at 12.5 million acres, is unchanged from last month but down 8 percent from last year. American-Pima harvested acres are unchanged from last month but are up 21 percent from last year. In the Southeastern States, defoliation of the crop was underway throughout the region. In Alabama and Georgia, the hot, dry weather during the summer months stimulated maturation of the crop allowing harvest to get into full swing by mid-September, well ahead of the 5-year average. By late September, harvest was starting in the Carolina's and Virginia. As of October 1, the crop condition in Alabama was rated very poor to poor while the crop in Georgia was in mostly fair to poor condition. Objective yield measurements in Georgia show bolls per acre at the second highest level in the last ten years. During the early part of September, harvest was in full swing in the southern Delta States with defoliation starting in the northern Delta States. By mid-month, harvest was delayed due to rain throughout the region. In the Bootheel of Missouri, strong thunderstorms moved through during the last week of September, bringing over 10 inches of rain with reports of flooding and dislodged cotton bolls. Data from the objective yield survey show Arkansas having the highest bolls per acre and the second largest weight per boll in the last ten years. Objective yield counts in Louisiana show the highest bolls per acre in the last ten years. In Mississippi, the boll weight is the lowest in the last 5 years. In Texas, harvest was wrapping up in the southern area of the State by late September. In the Plains region, rains fell during the first of the month. By mid-September, cool, wet weather slowed defoliation of the crop but maturation of the crop was well ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. In Kansas and Oklahoma, defoliation began during the last week of September. The cotton crop in Texas is rated in mostly fair to poor condition. Objective yield survey data indicate Texas boll weight to be the highest in the last ten years and the bolls per acre are the third highest. Upland cotton in California and Arizona developed normally throughout the month with the crop rated in good to excellent condition. In Arizona, harvest started in early September and was in full swing by the end of the month. California producers treated fields to control aphids and white fly infestations. By late September, defoliation was underway across the State. Objective yield measurements in California show bolls per acre to be the lowest in the last five years. American-Pima production is forecast at 804,000 bales, down 3 percent from September but up 28 percent from last year. The U.S. yield forecast is 1,191 pounds per acre, down 31 pounds from last month but up 64 pounds from 2005. In California, where a record high production is forecast, the crop is developing later than normal due to extreme heat during July. All cotton ginned totaled 2,589,150 running bales prior to October 1, compared with 2,314,450 running bales ginned prior to the same date last year and 2,226,500 running bales ginned in 2004. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Production is forecast at 74.5 million tons, up 5 percent from the August forecast but down 2 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 3.33 tons per acre, up 0.15 ton from August but down 0.05 ton from 2005. Harvested area is forecast at 22.4 million acres, unchanged from August but slightly above the previous year's acreage. Compared with August, yields are forecast to either remain unchanged or increase across the northern and eastern Corn Belt, in addition to several states in the Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest. Adequate rainfall and desirable temperatures in August and September resulted in improved yield expectations. The largest yield increase is forecast in Washington, up 0.7 ton from the previous forecast. The only States expecting a decline in yield from August are Arizona, Illinois, Utah, Oklahoma, and New York. Other Hay: Production is forecast at 72.5 million tons, up 2 percent from the August forecast but down 3 percent from 2005. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 1.80 tons, up 0.03 ton from the August forecast but down 0.11 ton from last year. Harvested area, at 40.3 million acres, is unchanged from August but up 3 percent from the previous year. Improved conditions from the late spring and early summer dryness contributed to yield increases in several States across the U.S. Compared with the previous forecast, growers in fourteen States are expecting higher yields, with Washington, Texas, Wisconsin, Colorado and Pennsylvania showing the largest increase, up 0.3 ton from August. Meanwhile, a cluster of States in the Ohio Valley and middle Atlantic Coast region are forecast to decrease from August. Virginia and Mississippi showed the largest decrease in yield from the previous forecast, both down 0.5 ton. Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is forecast at 23.8 million cwt for 2006, up 2 percent from the August forecast but 13 percent below last year. Harvested acreage is forecast at 1.56 million acres, 3 percent above the August forecast but less than 1 percent below last year. The average U.S. yield is forecast at 1,523 pounds per acre, a decrease of 11 pounds from the August forecast and 221 pounds below last year. Planted area is estimated at 1.65 million acres, an increase of 3 percent from earlier forecasts but a 1 percent decrease from 2005. Since August, production forecasts increased 38 percent in Texas, 30 percent in Minnesota, 5 percent in North Dakota, and 3 percent in Idaho. Production forecasts decreased 18 percent in New York, 13 percent in South Dakota, 11 percent in Washington, 9 percent in Nebraska, and 1 percent in California. Production is expected to be higher than last year in 9 of the 18 producing States. Washington production is up 46 percent, Texas production increased 30 percent, and New Mexico production is 30 percent above 2005. Oregon growers expect an increase of 17 percent, New York production is forecasted 7 percent above last year, and Idaho is up 2 percent. Michigan, Minnesota, and Montana production are all up 1 percent from 2005. Utah production is down 48 percent, Nebraska production decreased 31 percent, and Colorado production is 30 percent below 2005. Kansas producers expect production to decrease 24 percent, North Dakota and Wyoming growers both expect a 23 percent drop, and production in California is expected to drop 11 percent from 2005. Production in South Dakota and Wisconsin is expected to be 10 and 8 percent below last year, respectively. In North Dakota, dry bean crop conditions were rated 32 percent good to excellent and crop development has been 2 weeks ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest began in late August. Michigan dry bean crop conditions were rated 71 percent good to excellent and progress was ahead of average. In Nebraska, an early frost caused lower than normal quality and reduced yields. In Minnesota, harvest is progressing ahead of the 5-year average. As of October 1, eighty-four percent of the crop had been harvested compared with the 5-year average of 64 percent. Harvest is in full swing in Idaho. Many growers are finding their yields are better than expected in August but State yields are down from last year primarily due to an increase in lower yielding chickpea acreage. Harvest in Colorado started on schedule and under good conditions. In California, excessive July heat caused a decrease in yields. In Washington, harvest is nearing completion with 92 percent of the crop harvested as of October 1, well ahead of the 5-year average. In Wyoming and New York harvest is underway but behind the 5-year average. In New York the delay is due to late plantings and wet fields at the end of September. Winter Potatoes: Production for 2006 is revised to 4.50 million cwt, down 3 percent from the April forecast and 8 percent below 2005. Harvested area of 17,500 acres in the 2 winter potato States (California and Florida) is unchanged from the April 1 forecast but 12 percent less than last year. The average yield of 257 cwt per acre is down 7 cwt from the April forecast but 10 cwt above 2005. California's production, at 3.12 million cwt, is 11 percent below last season. Florida's production, at 1.38 million cwt, is down 1 percent from a year ago. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production is forecast at 734 million pounds, down 1 percent from the September forecast but 13 percent above 2005, the first year without quotas. However, production is expected to be 17 percent below 2004, the last year tobacco was under the quota system. Area for harvest is forecast at 334,300 acres, virtually unchanged from the September forecast but up 12 percent from last year. Yields for 2006 are expected to average 2,194 pounds per acre, 30 pounds below last month's forecast but 23 pounds greater than a year ago. Yields in North Carolina, the leading tobacco State, are expected to average 2,192 pounds per acre, unchanged from the previous forecast but 21 pounds below 2005. In Kentucky, the second leading tobacco State, growers expect to have yields averaging 2,234 pounds per acre, 106 pounds below the September forecast but up 48 pounds from last year. Growers in Connecticut, Georgia, and Pennsylvania also expect yields lower than last month while growers in Massachusetts, Tennessee, and Virginia are expecting yields higher than a month ago. Yields in the remaining tobacco States are expected to remain unchanged from September. Flue-cured production is expected to total 454 million pounds, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but 19 percent above 2005. Growers plan to harvest 208,100 acres, unchanged since September but up 19 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 2,181 pounds per acre, 4 pounds below the September 1 forecast and down 1 pound from a year ago. The Southern tobacco States experienced high temperatures with below average rainfall throughout the majority of the tobacco growing season. In North Carolina, the leading flue-cured tobacco producing State, growers have reported leaving some tobacco in the fields as they reach their contract limits or do not have the labor to harvest the tobacco as it matures. However, yields in North Carolina, at 2,200 pounds per acre, remain unchanged from September but 27 pounds below a year ago. Growers in Georgia expect yields to decrease from a month ago while all other flue-cured States expect yields to remain the same. Burley production is expected to total 217 million pounds, down 3 percent since last month but 7 percent above last year. Growers plan to harvest 103,700 acres, unchanged from the September forecast but up 4 percent from 2005. Yields are expected to average 2,097 pounds per acre, 69 pounds below the previous forecast but up 66 pounds from a year ago. Yields in Kentucky, the leading burley tobacco producing State, are expected to average 2,100 pounds per acre, down 100 pounds from the September forecast but 50 above 2005. Late September storms have caused some damage to Kentucky's burley crop. Strong winds blew some plants over and wet conditions were not ideal for harvesting and curing. Labor shortage is also an issue on many of the smaller operations. Burley yields also decreased in Pennsylvania from the previous forecast while they increased in Tennessee. Average yields in all other burley producing States remained the same. Fire-cured tobacco production is expected to total 36.1 million pounds, 3 percent below the September 1 forecast and down 4 percent from a year ago. Growers plan to harvest 11,250 acres, unchanged from last month but 5 percent below 2005. The expected average yield is 3,210 pounds per acre, 93 pounds below the previous forecast but up 32 pounds from last year. Southern Maryland Belt tobacco in Pennsylvania is expected to total 2.09 million pounds, down 5 percent from the September forecast and 30 percent below 2005. A total of 1,100 acres is expected to be harvested this year, unchanged from the previous forecast but 27 percent below a year ago. Yields are expected to average 1,900 pounds per acre, down 100 pounds from last month and last year. Dark air-cured tobacco is expected to total 15.2 million pounds, down 3 percent from last month's forecast but 32 percent above 2005. Area harvested is expected to total 5,100 acres, unchanged from the September forecast but up 23 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 2,984 pounds per acre, 92 pounds below last month but 206 pounds greater than a year ago. All cigar type tobacco production is forecast to total 8.91 million pounds, 2 percent above the previous forecast and up 1 percent from last year. Growers of cigar type tobacco expect to harvest 5,050 acres, up 3 percent from the September 1 forecast and 2 percent above 2005. Yields are expected to average 1,765 pounds per acre, 17 pounds less than last month and down 13 pounds from a year ago. Sugarbeets: Production for 2006 is forecast at 32.9 million tons, 2 percent above the September forecast and 20 percent above last year's production. The yield is forecast at 24.5 tons per acre, up 0.4 ton from September and 2.3 tons above 2005. If realized, this would be the highest yield on record for the U.S. Growers expect to harvest 1.34 million acres, unchanged from last month but 8 percent above last year. Area expected for harvest is unchanged from the previous forecast in all States, however, expected yields have changed as producers have begun harvesting and have a better indication of actual yields. Of the eight States in which yield forecasts have changed from September, yield is up in six States, including the largest producing State, Minnesota. Only in Colorado and Wyoming are yield forecasts down from last month. Record yields are forecast for Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota. Minnesota and North Dakota growers also expect to harvest a record number of acres. At month's end, harvest was underway in the four major producing States and was slightly behind normal in the Red River Valley but slightly ahead of normal in Idaho. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2006 is forecast at 29.0 million tons, 2 percent above the September forecast and 9 percent above 2005. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 908,800 acres for sugar and seed during the 2006 crop year, down fractionally from September and down 1 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 31.9 tons per acre, 0.7 ton above the previous forecast and 3.1 tons above the 2005 yield. In Florida, area expected for harvest and yield are both down from the previous forecast due to damage caused by frequent showers in the Lake Okeechobee area. However, production is up 11 percent from last year's hurricane-damaged crop. Louisiana's acreage is unchanged from the previous forecast, but expected yield is 2.0 tons higher than last month due to a growth spurt caused by rainfall in late August and warm weather in September. The acreage, yield, and production forecasts are unchanged from last month for Hawaii and Texas. Grapefruit: The initial U.S. forecast is 1.57 million tons, up 27 percent from last season's final utilization. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 26.0 million boxes (1.11 million tons), 35 percent above last season's hurricane-reduced final utilization. Excluding the last two hurricane-reduced crops, this is the lowest forecasted Florida grapefruit production since the 1949-50 season's 24.2 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is 9.00 million boxes (383,000 tons), 38 percent above last season's final utilization. White grapefruit bearing trees are estimated to have declined by 3 percent from last season and 21 percent from two seasons ago. Average fruit per tree and current fruit sizes are slightly below the 1994-95 to 2003-04 season average. Drop is expected to be average. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 17.0 million boxes (723,000 tons), is 33 percent above last season's final utilization. The number of bearing colored grapefruit trees is 2 percent below last season and 16 percent below the 2004-05 season. Fruit sizes are projected to be slightly below average, while fruit drop will be slightly above average. The October 1 grapefruit forecast for Texas is 6.70 million boxes (268,000 tons), up 29 percent from the previous season. September rains should help increase fruit size, and growers are generally reporting good quality. The California grapefruit forecast, at 5.70 million boxes (191,000 tons), is down 5 percent from the previous season's final utilization. Harvest of the 2005-06 crop is winding down. The 2006-07 crop is developing normally with good fruit quality expected. Fruit sizes are expected to be larger than last season due to a lighter fruit set. Arizona's forecast, at 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons), is unchanged from last season's utilized production. Lemons: The initial forecast for the 2006-07 U.S. lemon crop, at 855,000 tons, is down 9 percent from last season. California production is forecast at 19.7 million boxes (749,000 tons), down 6 percent from the 2005-06 season. Harvest has begun in the desert region but picking volume has been low. Arizona's 2006-07 lemon forecast, at 2.80 million boxes (106,000 tons), is down 26 percent from the previous season. Due to high summer temperatures, packers expect smaller fruit sizes and fewer fruit per tree. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast, at 1.10 million boxes (50,000 tons), is down 21 percent from last season's final utilized production. Compared with last season, the number of bearing trees are down 4 percent and fruit per tree is down 20 percent. Current droppage is at a record low level and, assuming a normal drop pattern for the rest of the season, is expected to remain below average. Tangerines: The 2006-07 U.S. tangerine crop forecast is 377,000 tons, down 10 percent from last season's final utilization of 417,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.60 million boxes (219,000 tons), down 16 percent from last season's utilization of 5.50 million boxes. Early variety tangerine (Fallglo and Sunburst) tree numbers are down 5 percent from the previous season. Average fruit per tree is higher than that of the 10 most recent non-hurricane seasons (1994-95 to 2003-04) for both early variety tangerines, while average Fallglo fruit size is smaller than any of these seasons. Sunburst fruit size is close to the non-hurricane season average. California's tangerine forecast is 3.80 million boxes (143,000 tons), 6 percent above last season's crop. Bearing acreage continues to increase as a result of strong market demand. Arizona's forecast is 400,000 boxes (15,000 tons), 27 percent below last season. Florida Citrus: Deficit rainfall amounts for the month of September were recorded in all citrus producing areas. Recorded rainfall in some areas was 5 and 6 inches below normal. With annual rainfall well below average and several warm, dry days during the month, growers continued to irrigate on a regular basis. High daytime temperatures reached into the low 90s with some nights towards the end of the month recorded in the mid to low 60s. Fruit sizes continue to be variable throughout the State with generally good fruit quality reported. Some fruit splitting was reported early in the month due to rains late last month and early this month following the dry weather earlier in the growing season. Recent cooler weather has spawned color break on grapefruit and some earlier varieties of oranges. A couple of packinghouses are open and have begun to receive grapefruit and Ambersweet oranges. Scouting for canker and greening by growers, owners, and caretakers continues. Activity in the groves included spraying, cleaning ditches, mowing, irrigation, and the planting of available resets. Texas Citrus: Harvest was delayed by rain at the end of September. Hot and dry summer conditions contributed to smaller fruit sizes but September rains are expected to help increase sizes by harvest. Generally, fruit quality is reported as good due to the dry summer conditions and light insect pressure. Arizona Citrus: Producers indicate citrus groves are in good condition with good fruit quality also reported. Hot weather during the growing season has resulted in somewhat smaller fruit sizes compared to last year. Lemon harvest has begun in Yuma County. California Citrus: Citrus grove maintenance activities included irrigation, fertilization, and weed control. New navel orange groves were still being planted while existing groves showed good growth. Old crop Valencia orange harvest continued slowly with some reports of small fruit size received. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Stone fruit growers irrigated, cultivated, and applied treatments for weeds and insects throughout the month of September. Stone fruit varieties being picked and packed included O'Henry, September Flame, September Fire, September Snow, Ryan Sun, Snow Gem, Full Moon, and Prima 23 peaches; August Red, Arctic Snow, Late Red Jim, Summer Fire, Summer Flare, September Bright, September Red, and August Red nectarines; Dinosaur Egg, Flavor Grenade, Yummy Giant, Golden Heart, Sierra Rose, and Flavor Fall pluots; October Sun, October Gem, Howard Sun, Emerald Beauty, Angeleno, Flavor Treat, and Catalina plums. Pomegranates continued to show good size and color. By the end of the month, a few varieties were being harvested. Cultural activities for grapes were similar to those of stone fruit. Red Globe, Prima Red, Flame Seedless, Crimson Seedless, Cabernet Franc, Crimson, Grenache, Autumn Royal, Alicante Bouschet, Christmas Rose, Zinfandel, Merlot, and Thompson Seedless table and wine grape varieties were being harvested. Dried-on-the-vine raisin growers were cutting canes and early varieties were being harvested. Pear harvest continued in some areas. Granny Smith apple harvest continued. Brown Turkey figs and prunes were being harvested in Fresno County. Pre-plant fumigation, irrigation, and fertilization were in progress for strawberries in Tulare County. By month's end, strawberry growers had begun transplanting for the new fall crop. Almond harvest activities included shaking trees, windrowing nuts, and sweeping orchards. Pistachio harvest began in mid-September and walnut growers prepared for harvest. Apples: The final production forecast for the 2006 crop year is 9.84 billion pounds, up 2 percent from the August forecast but down less than 1 percent from 2005. Increases in production from August 2006 were shown for Michigan, Washington, New York and North Carolina. Pennsylvania and West Virginia production did not change from the August forecast, while Virginia showed a decrease in apple production. Growers in the Eastern, Central, and Western apple producing regions are expecting increases in production compared with the August forecast. Production in the Western States (AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, UT, and WA) is forecast at 6.35 billion pounds, up 2 percent from the August forecast but 2 percent below 2005. Washington production, which makes up 58 percent of the U.S. total, is forecast at 5.70 billion pounds, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but 2 percent below last year. Washington's apple harvest continues under very good weather conditions. Despite scattered early summer hail storms and hot, dry weather during the growing season, the overall quality and quantity has been reported as good. All of the other Western States are carried forward from the August forecast. Production in the Eastern States (CT, GA, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, NC, PA, RI, SC, VT, VA, and WV) is forecast at 2.31 billion pounds, up less than 1 percent from the August forecast and 1 percent above last season. Production increased 2 percent in New York and North Carolina, while Pennsylvania and West Virginia showed no change from the August forecast. Virginia's production decreased 8 percent from the previous forecast. New York growers report good size and quality of apples due to adequate rainfall. In North Carolina, harvest was 75 percent complete by October 1st with few reported problems. Pennsylvania apple growers report good sizing, despite dry weather in late July and August. Apples are being harvested about 10 days earlier than normal. With 50 percent of the crop harvested, West Virginia producers have reported favorable growing conditions. Virginia producers expect a smaller crop than previously forecast due to small fruit size brought on by a dryer than normal growing season. All other Eastern States are carried forward from the August forecast. Production in the Central States (IL, IN, IA, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, TN, and WI) is forecast at 1.18 billion pounds, up 11 percent from the August forecast and 5 percent above 2005. The Michigan crop is picking out significantly larger than forecast in August. Plentiful rain in August and September has benefitted sizing. Hail damage has been a problem in many areas and will affect quality. All other Central States are carried forward from the August forecast. Pecans: The October 1, 2006 forecast of pecan utilized production is 201 million pounds (in-shell basis), down 28 percent from last year's crop but 8 percent above 2004. Improved varieties are expected to produce 150 million pounds or 74 percent of the total, while native and seedling varieties, at 51.7 million pounds, make up the remaining 26 percent. The 2006 crop is expected to be smaller than last year's in most producing States mainly because it is a low year in the alternate bearing pattern typical of pecans. The exceptions are the Gulf Coast States of Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi that expect larger crops this year since hurricanes caused extensive damage in both the 2004 and 2005 seasons. If realized, New Mexico's production forecast of 46.0 million pounds would rank the State first in pecans for 2006. That forecast represents a 29 percent decrease from last year but is up 18 percent from 2 years ago. Georgia's forecast, at 45.0 million pounds, is down 44 percent from last season's production but is the same as 2004. The Texas forecast is 36.0 million pounds, 45 percent less than the 2005 crop and 10 percent below 2004. In New Mexico, October 1 pecan conditions were fair to excellent. Above normal rain and some hail in September added to the reduced crop expectations. In Georgia, dry weather last fall and early this spring, along with the alternate year bearing cycle, has reduced potential production for 2006. Because of drought stress, trees produced a very light nut set. However, disease pressures have been controlled and nut quality is expected to be excellent. Harvest of the earliest varieties should begin in mid-October. In Texas, a warm winter with insufficient chilling below 45 degrees, combined with prolonged drought in some areas and severe heat in August, added to the low production expectations. The drought did eliminate most pecan scab problems. Oklahoma production, at 20.0 million pounds, is down 5 percent from last year's crop and 29 percent below 2004. Sixteen months of drought have limited crop prospects. The Louisiana forecast of 19.0 million pounds is nearly 3 times last year's production and over twice that of 2004, mainly due to hurricane damage the previous two seasons. Alabama's production is also expected to return to pre-hurricane levels with a forecast of 6.00 million pounds, up 50 percent from 2005 and over 4 times 2004. Production in Arizona is forecast at 15.0 million pounds, 32 percent below last year but 7 percent more than 2 years ago. Grapes: U.S. grape production is forecast at 6.42 million tons, down 4 percent from the August forecast and 18 percent below 2005. California leads the U.S. in grape production with 90 percent of the total. Washington and New York are the next largest producing States, with 5 percent and 2 percent, respectively. California's all grape forecast, at 5.75 million tons, is down 5 percent from the August forecast and 18 percent below last year. Washington growers expect to produce 350,000 tons, unchanged since the previous forecast but 16 percent below last year's record crop. New York's forecast, at 154,000 tons, is down 4 percent from August and 13 percent below a year ago. California's wine type grape production is expected to total 3.00 million tons, 6 percent below the August forecast and down 21 percent from 2005. Wine type grapes account for 52 percent of California's grape crop. Harvest in the Central and North Costal areas is behind schedule since cool weather has slowed sugar development there. Harvest in the San Joaquin Valley has been underway since mid-August. Grapes in that area have been picking lighter than originally expected. While grape quality is expected to be excellent, it is likely that many varieties of red wine grapes will go unharvested due to ample supplies from last year and increased imports. California's raisin type grape production is forecast at 2.00 million tons, 35 percent of California's total grape crop. The production forecast for raisin type grape varieties is down 2 percent from the previous forecast and 13 percent below a year ago. Harvest of early raisin grape varieties was underway but dried-on-the-vine raisin grape growers were still cutting canes and drying bunches. Production of table type grapes is forecast at 750,000 tons, down 5 percent from the August forecast and 13 percent below last year. Table type grapes make up 13 percent of the total California grape crop this year. Harvest of table type grapes was well underway in the San Joaquin Valley and the Kern District. Varieties harvested include Princess, Red Globe, Black Seedless, Flame Seedless, Sweet Scarlet, Autumn Royal, Crimson Seedless, Christmas Rose, and Thompson Seedless. Washington's production is forecast at 350,000 tons, unchanged since the August forecast but 16 percent below 2005. The juice type grape forecast, at 230,000 tons, is unchanged from the previous forecast but 25 percent below last year's bumper juice grape crop. Early summer hail storms had little impact on this year's crop. Wine type grape production is forecast at 120,000 tons, unchanged from August but up 9 percent from a year ago. An increase in bearing acreage and favorable growing conditions left wine grape growers in Washington expecting a large, high quality crop. New York's grape production is forecast at 154,000 tons, 4 percent below the August forecast and down 13 percent from a year ago. Rainy weather across the State has slowed ripening and left Brix levels low which has delayed harvest of Concords grapes in particular. Some growers are concerned that grapes will not ripen before frost comes this fall. Spring frost damage was also a problem for growers in the Lake Ontario and Lake Erie regions. Michigan's grape production is forecast at 30,000 tons, up 20 percent from the August forecast but down 71 percent from 2005. Grape growers in southern Michigan experienced a number of problems this season. An April frost swept the area killing primary buds and causing extensive damage. Thunderstorms and hail in late July and August brought additional damage to an already small crop. September was cool and rainy which kept grapes from maturing and Brix levels low. A significant amount of the southern Michigan grape crop is expected to go unharvested since the harvesting costs will exceed the value of the crop. Grape growers in northern Michigan are expecting a good crop due to favorable weather. Pennsylvania's grape production is forecast at 75,000 tons, 4 percent below the August forecast and down 17 percent from a year ago. Pennsylvania growers experienced frosts in late May and June negatively affecting the crop. Disease pressure was also reported to be extremely high this season. Brix levels are low in Concord grapes leaving many growers wondering if they will increase to a level acceptable to processors before the first frosts hit. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.54 million pounds for September, up 20 percent from last month but down 5 percent from a year ago. Area in crop totaled 2,140 acres, down 1 percent from last month and down 8 percent from September 2005. Harvested area totaled 1,335 acres, unchanged from last month but 8 percent lower than last year. Weather conditions during September were generally sunny with some trade winds and showers. Warm temperatures were favorable for orchard development and maintenance. Favorable rains earlier in the year encouraged flowering and fruit set which have contributed to the production increase in September. Prunes (Dried Plums): California's 2006 prune production is forecast at 170,000 dried tons, up 17 percent from the June 1 forecast and 89 percent above the heat damaged 2005 crop. Bearing area, at 67,000 acres, is unchanged since last year. This year's prune crop experienced an unseasonable rainy period during bloom which hampered pollination and led to a small fruit set statewide. As the season progressed, the crop prospects improved. This production forecast is based on a survey of prune growers conducted from August 21 through September 13. Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecast Field Crop Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between September 23 and October 6 to gather information on expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, plant counts are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears, bolls, or pods and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet, and personal interviewers. Over 15,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields. Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the October 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produced about 75 percent of the U.S. production last season. In August and September 2006, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Field Crop Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Field Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecasts. Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. Estimates of planted acres for spring planted crops are subject to revision in the August Crop Production report if conditions altered the planting intentions since the mid-year survey. Planted acres may also be revised for cotton, peanuts, and rice in the September Crop Production report each year; spring wheat, Durum wheat, barley, and oats only in the Small Grains Annual report at the end of September; and all other spring planted crops in the October Crop Production report. Revisions to planted acres will only be made when either special survey data or administrative data are available. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last forecast. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the October 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain production forecast is 3.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.0 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 181 million bushels, ranging from 3 million bushels to 624 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 10 times and above 10 times. This does not imply that the October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Root Mean : 20-Year Record of : : Square Error : Differences Between Forecast : :------------------: and Final Estimate : : : :------------------------------------ Crop :Unit : : 90 : Quantity : Years : :Percent: Percent :------------------------------------ : : :Confidence: : : :Below:Above : : : Interval :Average:Smallest:Largest:Final:Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ Million ------ Number : : Corn for Grain :Bu : 3.5 6.0 181 3 624 10 10 Sorghum for Grain :Bu : 6.0 10.3 24 1 105 10 10 Rice :Cwt : 2.8 4.9 4 0 13 11 9 Soybeans for Beans:Bu : 2.4 4.2 47 2 119 9 11 Cotton 1/ :Bales: 4.5 7.7 652 31 1,706 14 6 Dry Edible Beans :Cwt : 3.9 6.7 1 * 3 14 6 Oranges 1/ :Tons : 9.6 16.6 673 18 2,043 7 13 Oranges 1/ 2/ :Tons : 4.7 8.3 432 18 887 7 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Less than 1 million. 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. 2/ Excluding freeze and hurricane seasons. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Jeff Geuder, Chief .(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head(202) 720-2127 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings(202) 720-5944 Scott Cox - Wheat, Rye(202) 720-8068 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed(202) 720-9526 Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice(202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds(202) 720-7369 King Whetstone - Hay, Oats, Sorghum(202) 690-3234 Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-7621 Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops Section Jim Smith, Head(202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco(202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries(202) 720-2157 Rich Holcomb - Citrus, Tropical Fruits(202) 720-5412 Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts(202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas(202) 720-3250 Jim Smith - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-2127 Kim Ritchie - Hops(360) 902-1940 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes(202) 720-4285 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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USDA Data Users' Meeting October 16, 2006 Doubletree Chicago O'Hare Airport - Rosemont Chicago, Illinois (847) 292-9100 The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for data users. The purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs and seek comments and input from data users. Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be included in the meeting. For registration details or additional information for the Data Users' Meeting, see the NASS homepage at www.nass.usda.gov/forum/ or contact Amy Jenkins (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at amy_jenkins@nass.usda.gov. This Data Users' Meeting precedes an Industry Outlook meeting that will be held at the same location on October 17, 2006. The Outlook meeting brings together analysts from various commodity sectors to discuss the outlook situation. For more information about the outlook meeting and to register contact Jim Robb (Livestock and Marketing Information Center) at (720) 544-2941 or at robb@lmic.info.