Cr Pr 2-2 (2-07) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 9, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Unchanged The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2006-07 season is 8.12 million tons, unchanged from the January forecast but down 9 percent from last season's final utilization of 8.90 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 140 million boxes (6.30 million tons), is unchanged from January but down 5 percent from the 2005-06 season's crop. Florida's citrus growing areas experienced warmer than average temperatures during most of January. Cooler temperatures toward the end of the month helped to slow down bud formation for next season's crop without causing any freeze damage. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 75.0 million boxes (3.38 million tons), unchanged from both the previous forecast and last season's final utilization. The row count survey conducted January 30-31 indicates that 75 percent of the early-midseason orange rows have been harvested. Beginning with the current season, Temple oranges are included in this category. Florida's Valencia forecast is 65.0 million boxes (2.93 million tons), also unchanged from the January forecast but down 11 percent from last season's final utilization. Average fruit size has increased from earlier indications but a higher rate of drop is offsetting. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from January. The impact of recent weather conditions in California and Arizona has not yet been measured and is not reflected in this report. Updated forecasts will be published in March. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2006-07 season is forecast at 1.61 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up from 1.58 gallons per box last month but down from the 2005-06 season's yield of 1.63 gallons. Projected yield from the early-midseason portion is 1.55 gallons, up from 1.51 gallons last month and 1.53 gallons last season. Valencias are projected to yield 1.70 gallons, unchanged from last month but down from 1.75 gallons for the 2005-06 crop. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. Arizona, California, and Texas to Forecast March Citrus Utilization Due to the extended freeze that hit California and Arizona in mid-January, NASS will publish updated citrus forecasts for California, Arizona, and Texas in the March Crop Production report. Forecasts for these quarterly estimating States are normally carried forward from January until April. NASS will survey growers and packers a month earlier than previously scheduled in order to make new citrus utilization forecasts in March. The California Valencia objective measurement survey has been discontinued for the 2006-07 season, and will not be used as an indication for the March Valencia forecast. NASS will also publish updated forecasts in April, as originally scheduled. Monthly forecasts of Florida citrus utilization are unaffected by this change. Revisions to the 2005-06 season's utilized citrus production for the United States and all States will be published in the March Crop Production report, also a month earlier than scheduled. This report was approved on February 9, 2007. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Charles F. Conner Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . . 5 Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . . 5 Tangerines. . . . . . . . . . 5 Temples . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . 4 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . .13 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . 6 Information Contacts . . . . . .16 Reliability of Production Data in this Report15 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . .12 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2005-2006 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 376.0 386.0 31.4 35.6 11,806 13,742 HI 2/ : 21.7 20.3 80.8 83.5 1,753 1,695 LA 2/ : 420.0 405.0 22.9 27.0 9,618 10,935 TX 2/ : 40.5 45.0 38.3 38.9 1,551 1,751 : US : 858.2 856.3 28.8 32.8 24,728 28,123 : For Seed : FL : 25.0 19.0 37.6 37.0 940 703 HI 2/ : 1.8 2.0 34.8 33.3 63 67 LA 2/ : 35.0 30.0 22.9 27.0 802 810 TX 2/ : 1.9 1.5 38.3 35.0 73 53 : US : 63.7 52.5 29.5 31.1 1,878 1,633 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 401.0 405.0 31.8 35.7 12,746 14,445 HI 2/ : 23.5 22.3 77.3 79.0 1,816 1,762 LA 2/ : 455.0 435.0 22.9 27.0 10,420 11,745 TX 2/ : 42.4 46.5 38.3 38.8 1,624 1,804 : US : 921.9 908.8 28.9 32.7 26,606 29,756 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2006 Summary." Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Dec : 2,350 1,135 2,220 Jan : 2,280 2,350 1,790 1,135 2,920 2,410 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2004-05, 2005-06 and Forecasted February 1, 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2004-05 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2004-05 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early, Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 240 250 200 9 9 8 CA 4/ : 44,000 45,500 33,000 1,650 1,706 1,238 FL 5/ : 79,100 75,000 75,000 3,560 3,375 3,375 TX 4/ : 1,500 1,400 1,710 64 60 73 US : 124,840 122,150 109,910 5,283 5,150 4,694 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 190 200 150 7 8 6 CA 4/ : 20,500 12,000 13,000 769 450 488 FL : 70,700 72,900 65,000 3,182 3,281 2,925 TX 4/ : 270 200 270 11 9 11 US : 91,660 85,300 78,420 3,969 3,748 3,430 All : AZ 4/ : 430 450 350 16 17 14 CA 4/ : 64,500 57,500 46,000 2,419 2,156 1,726 FL : 149,800 147,900 140,000 6,742 6,656 6,300 TX 4/ : 1,770 1,600 1,980 75 69 84 US : 216,500 207,450 188,330 9,252 8,898 8,124 Temples 5/ : FL : 650 700 29 32 Grapefruit : White : FL : 3,400 6,500 9,000 145 276 383 Colored : FL : 9,400 12,800 17,000 400 544 723 All : AZ 4/ : 140 100 100 5 3 3 CA 4/ : 6,100 6,000 6,000 204 201 201 FL : 12,800 19,300 26,000 545 820 1,106 TX 4/ : 6,600 5,200 6,500 264 208 260 US : 25,640 30,600 38,600 1,018 1,232 1,570 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 400 550 400 15 21 15 CA 4/ 6/ : 2,900 3,600 3,800 109 135 143 FL : 4,450 5,500 4,600 211 261 219 US : 7,750 9,650 8,800 335 417 377 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 2,400 3,800 2,800 91 144 106 CA : 20,500 21,000 20,500 779 798 779 US : 22,900 24,800 23,300 870 942 885 Tangelos : FL : 1,550 1,400 1,200 70 63 54 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5/ Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3,452.0 2,951.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 78,327.0 70,648.0 Corn for Silage : 6,477.0 Hay, All : 60,807.0 Alfalfa : 21,384.0 All Other : 39,423.0 Oats : 4,168.0 1,576.0 Proso Millet : 580.0 475.0 Rice : 2,838.0 2,821.0 Rye : 1,396.0 274.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 6,522.0 4,937.0 Sorghum for Silage : 347.0 Wheat, All : 57,344.0 46,810.0 Winter : 40,575.0 44,089.0 31,117.0 Durum : 1,870.0 1,815.0 Other Spring : 14,899.0 13,878.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,044.0 1,021.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 813.0 767.0 Mustard Seed : 40.5 39.2 Peanuts : 1,243.0 1,209.0 Rapeseed : 1.4 1.0 Safflower : 189.0 179.0 Soybeans for Beans : 75,522.0 74,602.0 Sunflower : 1,950.0 1,770.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 15,274.0 12,731.5 Upland : 14,948.0 12,408.0 Amer-Pima : 326.0 323.5 Sugarbeets : 1,366.7 1,304.1 Sugarcane : 908.8 Tobacco : 339.0 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 46.0 22.5 Dry Edible Beans : 1,629.8 1,537.6 Dry Edible Peas : 925.5 884.1 Lentils : 429.0 407.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 Hops : 29.4 Peppermint Oil : 79.2 Potatoes, All : 1,134.7 1,115.5 Winter : 17.7 11.5 17.5 11.5 Spring : 70.7 67.5 Summer : 58.4 54.3 Fall : 987.9 976.2 Spearmint Oil : 18.5 Sweet Potatoes : 95.6 87.2 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 61.0 180,051 Corn for Grain :" : 149.1 10,534,868 Corn for Silage :Tons : 16.2 104,849 Hay, All :" : 2.33 141,666 Alfalfa :" : 3.35 71,666 All Other :" : 1.78 70,000 Oats :Bu : 59.5 93,764 Proso Millet :" : 21.5 10,195 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 6,868 193,736 Rye :Bu : 26.3 7,193 Sorghum for Grain :" : 56.2 277,538 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 13.4 4,642 Wheat, All :Bu : 38.7 1,812,036 Winter :" : 41.7 1,298,081 Durum :" : 29.5 53,475 Other Spring :" : 33.2 460,480 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,366 1,394,332 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 7,632.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 14.4 11,019 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 720 28,220 Peanuts :" : 2,874 3,474,450 Rapeseed :" : 1,100 1,100 Safflower :" : 1,069 191,405 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 42.7 3,188,247 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,211 2,143,613 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 819 21,729.0 Upland 2/ :" : 811 20,973.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,122 756.0 Sugarbeets :Tons : 25.9 33,765 Sugarcane :" : 32.7 29,756 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,144 726,724 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,151 259 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,577 24,247 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,493 13,203 Lentils 2/ :" : 797 3,244 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 590 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,160 7,300 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 43,000 4,300 Hops :" : 1,964 57,686.7 Peppermint Oil :" : 92 7,248 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 390 434,683 Winter :" : 257 250 4,495 2,875 Spring :" : 293 19,766 Summer :" : 340 18,444 Fall :" : 402 391,978 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 110 2,038 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 189 16,441 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :-------------------------------------------- : : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Tons : 1,018 1,232 1,570 Lemons : " : 870 942 885 Oranges 3/ : " : 9,252 8,898 8,124 Tangelos (FL) : " : 70 63 54 Tangerines : " : 335 417 377 Temples (FL) 3/ : " : 29 32 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 9,719.9 10,072.1 Apricots : Tons : 81.7 44.7 Bananas (HI) : Lbs : 20,900.0 17,000.0 Grapes : Tons : 7,813.7 6,346.3 Olives (CA) : " : 142.0 23.5 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 32,900.0 28,300.0 Peaches : Tons : 1,184.6 1,010.1 Pears : " : 823.3 841.0 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 97.0 170.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 9.1 21.3 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled): Lbs : 915,000 1,095,000 Hazelnuts (OR) : Tons : 27.6 41.0 Pecans : Lbs : 280,250 188,900 Walnuts (CA) : Tons : 355.0 350.0 Maple Syrup : Gals : 1,242 1,449 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2/ Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,396,990 1,194,240 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,698,150 28,590,540 Corn for Silage : 2,621,180 Hay, All 3/ : 24,607,980 Alfalfa : 8,653,890 All Other : 15,954,090 Oats : 1,686,750 637,790 Proso Millet : 234,720 192,230 Rice : 1,148,510 1,141,630 Rye : 564,950 110,890 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 2,639,390 1,997,950 Sorghum for Silage : 140,430 Wheat, All 3/ :23,206,540 18,943,540 Winter :16,420,300 17,842,380 12,592,740 Durum : 756,770 734,510 Other Spring : 6,029,480 5,616,290 : Oilseeds : Canola : 422,500 413,190 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 329,010 310,400 Mustard Seed : 16,390 15,860 Peanuts : 503,030 489,270 Rapeseed : 570 400 Safflower : 76,490 72,440 Soybeans for Beans :30,563,000 30,190,680 Sunflower : 789,150 716,300 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 6,181,240 5,152,310 Upland : 6,049,310 5,021,390 Amer-Pima : 131,930 130,920 Sugarbeets : 553,090 527,760 Sugarcane : 367,780 Tobacco : 137,170 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 18,620 9,110 Dry Edible Beans : 659,560 622,250 Dry Edible Peas : 374,540 357,790 Lentils : 173,610 164,710 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 Ginger Root (HI) : 40 Hops : 11,880 Peppermint Oil : 32,050 Potatoes, All 3/ : 459,200 451,430 Winter : 7,160 4,650 7,080 4,650 Spring : 28,610 27,320 Summer : 23,630 21,970 Fall : 399,790 395,060 Spearmint Oil : 7,490 Sweet Potatoes : 38,690 35,290 Taro (HI) 5/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.28 3,920,150 Corn for Grain : 9.36 267,597,970 Corn for Silage : 36.29 95,117,410 Hay, All 2/ : 5.22 128,517,230 Alfalfa : 7.51 65,014,300 All Other : 3.98 63,502,930 Oats : 2.13 1,360,980 Proso Millet : 1.20 231,220 Rice : 7.70 8,787,720 Rye : 1.65 182,710 Sorghum for Grain : 3.53 7,049,790 Sorghum for Silage : 29.99 4,211,150 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.60 49,315,540 Winter : 2.81 35,327,980 Durum : 1.98 1,455,350 Other Spring : 2.23 12,532,210 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.53 632,460 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,923,630 Flaxseed : 0.90 279,900 Mustard Seed : 0.81 12,800 Peanuts : 3.22 1,575,980 Rapeseed : 1.23 500 Safflower : 1.20 86,820 Soybeans for Beans : 2.87 86,769,860 Sunflower : 1.36 972,330 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.92 4,730,930 Upland : 0.91 4,566,330 Amer-Pima : 1.26 164,600 Sugarbeets : 58.04 30,631,090 Sugarcane : 73.40 26,994,190 Tobacco : 2.40 329,640 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.29 11,750 Dry Edible Beans : 1.77 1,099,830 Dry Edible Peas : 1.67 598,880 Lentils : 0.89 147,150 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 26,760 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.30 3,310 Ginger Root (HI) : 48.20 1,950 Hops : 2.20 26,170 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,290 Potatoes, All 2/ : 43.68 19,716,890 Winter : 28.79 28.02 203,890 130,410 Spring : 32.82 896,570 Summer : 38.07 836,610 Fall : 45.01 17,779,820 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 920 Sweet Potatoes : 21.13 745,750 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,040 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 923,510 1,117,650 1,424,280 Lemons : 789,250 854,570 802,860 Oranges 3/ : 8,393,270 8,072,130 7,369,970 Tangelos (FL) : 63,500 57,150 48,990 Tangerines : 303,910 378,300 342,010 Temples (FL) 3/ : 26,310 29,030 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,408,870 4,568,630 Apricots : 74,070 40,530 Bananas (HI) : 9,480 7,710 Grapes : 7,088,470 5,757,220 Olives (CA) : 128,820 21,320 Papayas (HI) : 14,920 12,840 Peaches : 1,074,610 916,370 Pears : 746,900 762,970 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 88,000 154,220 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 8,260 19,320 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 415,040 496,680 Hazelnuts (OR) : 25,040 37,190 Pecans : 127,120 85,680 Walnuts (CA) : 322,050 317,510 Maple Syrup : 6,210 7,240 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2/ Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. January Weather Summary January began on a warm note, especially across the eastern half of the United States, but ended under a very chilly regime nationwide. Monthly temperatures ranged more than 5 degrees F below normal in deeply snow-covered areas of the central High Plains and Intermountain West to at least 5 degrees F above normal in a broad area stretching across the northern Plains, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic States. Following a mild spell, frigid air poured into the West on January 11-12, signaling the onset of one of the three most damaging cold outbreaks (along with December 1990 and 1998) of the last quarter-century in winter agricultural areas of central and southern California and the Desert Southwest. The most significant Western freeze damage occurred on January 13-14, although hard freezes (readings at or below 28 degrees F) lingered in parts of California's San Joaquin Valley for more than a week. Farther east, winter crop areas of the Deep South escaped hard freezes, although temperatures briefly fell to near the freezing mark (32 degrees F) in southern Texas on January 16-17 and in parts of southern Florida on January 30. Mid- to late-month temperatures occasionally plunged below -20 degrees F across the Dakotas and the upper Midwest, stressing livestock that had been accustomed to unusually mild weather for more than a month. However, livestock on the central High Plains endured an especially difficult month due to chilly conditions and a substantial snow cover in the wake of back-to-back December blizzards. Wetter-than-normal weather prevailed in January from central and southern sections of the Rockies and Plains northeastward into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes States. On the central Plains, a persistent snow cover favored overwintering wheat but maintained difficult conditions for livestock. Snow blanketed much of the southern Plains on January 19-20 and persisted for several days. Farther north, however, mild, breezy weather on the northern Plains eroded wheat's protective snow cover and left the crop exposed to weather extremes. Meanwhile, occasional snow fell across much of the Midwest, but heavy rain in the Ohio Valley triggered lowland flooding and left fields unfavorably wet. In contrast, near- to below-normal precipitation fell across the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic States. Conditions were especially dry across southern Florida, maintaining the need for citrus irrigation. Elsewhere, only light precipitation fell west of the Rockies, increasing concerns about summer water supplies. By month's end, Western snowpacks were particularly meager in the Sierra Nevada, the Great Basin, and parts of the Southwest. January Agricultural Summary Temperatures averaging above normal across the northern and eastern Great Plains and throughout the East contrasted sharply with below-normal average temperatures over much of the West and into the central and southern Plains during the month. Significant precipitation fell across the Pacific Northwest, over much of the central and southern Rockies and Plains, and throughout the East. Accumulations well above normal stretched north and east from the southern Rockies and Plains into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region. Scattered, mostly light precipitation prevailed over most of California and the Desert Southwest, across the northern Plains, and in southern Florida. In California and the Desert Southwest, hard freezes mid-month caused major damage to citrus and other crops. In the San Joaquin Valley, temperatures at or below 28 degrees F persisted for over a week, with some areas being exposed to the damaging cold for more than 80 hours during the period. While citrus sustained the bulk of the damage, artichokes, avocados, broccoli, strawberries, and a variety of other vegetables were also affected. Damage assessments were on-going at month's end. In the northern Great Plains, drier and warmer than normal conditions contributed to sparse snow cover, which left much of the winter wheat crop unprotected against extreme overnight temperatures. Snow across the central and southern Plains provided good protection to winter wheat, but continued to stress livestock and maintained the need for heavy supplemental feeding. Moderate precipitation across Texas and extending northeast to the lower Great Lakes was beneficial for small grains and other crops. However, heavy rain throughout the Ohio Valley caused some lowland flooding and left many fields and pastures excessively soggy, making conditions difficult for livestock. Across the Southeast, warmer than normal temperatures combined with beneficial rains to provide favorable conditions for small grains. Growers in most areas were preparing land for spring planting, while sugarcane harvest was active throughout the month in Florida. Dry conditions across southern Florida maintained the need for irrigation of citrus crops. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for the 2006 crop year is forecast at 29.8 million tons, of which 28.1 million tons is expected to be for sugar and 1.63 million tons for seed. Total production for sugar and seed is up 1 percent from the previous forecast and 12 percent above last year's hurricane affected crop. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 908,800 acres for sugar and seed during the 2006 crop year, unchanged from the previous forecast but 1 percent below last year. If realized, area harvested will be the smallest since 1996. Yield is forecast at 32.7 tons per acre, compared with the January forecast of 32.4 tons and last year's estimate of 28.9 tons. The yield in Florida for sugar and seed, at 35.7 tons per acre, is up 0.7 ton from last month and up 3.9 tons from last year when the crop suffered significant damage from hurricanes. Harvest in Florida continued mostly on schedule during January but was slowed somewhat at the end of the month due to heavy rainfall. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from January. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2006-07 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.57 million tons, unchanged from the January 1 forecast but up 27 percent from last season's final utilization of 1.23 million tons. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 26.0 million boxes (1.11 million tons), unchanged from the January forecast but 35 percent above last season's hurricane-reduced final utilization of 19.3 million boxes (820,000 tons). The all white grapefruit forecast is 9.00 million boxes (383,000 tons), unchanged from January but 38 percent above last season's final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 17.0 million boxes (723,000 tons), is unchanged from January but 33 percent above last season's final utilization. Both average fruit size and fruit drop have increased since last month, which is attributed to the generally warm temperatures in January. Overall, fruit quality has been reported as excellent. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit forecasts are carried forward from January. Updated forecasts will be published in March. Tangerines: The 2006-07 U.S. tangerine forecast is 377,000 tons, unchanged from the January forecast but down 10 percent from last season's final utilization of 417,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.60 million boxes (219,000 tons), unchanged from the January forecast but down 16 percent from last season's utilization of 5.50 million boxes. Early variety tangerine harvest is nearly complete, while the row count survey shows only 11 percent of the later maturing Honey tangerine rows have been harvested. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from January. Updated forecasts will be published in March. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.20 million boxes (54,000 tons), up 9 percent from the January 1 forecast but down 14 percent from last season's final utilized production. The row count survey conducted January 30-31 shows 19 percent of the rows remain to be harvested. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.41 million pounds for January, up 9 percent from December but down 17 percent from January 2006. Area in crop totaled 2,350 acres, unchanged from last month but up 3 percent from a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,135 acres in January, unchanged from December but 37 percent lower than January 2006. Cool, wet, and windy conditions during January were reported in papaya growing areas. Heavy rains saturated orchards and growers stepped up spraying efforts to minimize disease outbreaks. Florida Citrus: Temperatures in Florida's citrus producing regions were generally warmer than normal during January with daytime highs in the low 80s recorded. Toward the end of the month, a cold front dropped temperatures into the low to mid 30s over much of the citrus growing region. Light, scattered frost was reported on the ground but not in the citrus trees. No damage to fruit or new growth was reported. All areas remain relatively dry with lakes and canals at low levels. Most growers irrigated only when necessary to reduce tree stress or before a cold front in order to prevent flushes of new growth. Nevertheless, new growth and flower buds were forming by the end of the month, and some trees showed nearly open blossoms. Harvest of early and midseason oranges was at peak level all month with most fruit being processed. Grapefruit harvest continued to increase for both domestic and export fresh utilization. Packing house eliminations and some field run fruit were processed. Citrus growers and caretakers prepared for harvest, while in harvested groves they hedged and topped trees and applied fertilizer. California Citrus: Harvest of navel oranges, mandarins, tangerines, and lemons continued until below freezing temperatures struck the State in mid-January. Citrus growers irrigated their groves and ran wind machines to help protect fruit, however severe damage was reported in most citrus growing areas. Citrus damage is still being assessed. Harvest of oranges for juice is continuing. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Stone fruit and pomegranate cultural practices continued throughout the month of January. These practices included applications of fertilizer, herbicides, and dormant sprays, as well as pruning, shredding, and pushing out orchards for replanting. Persimmon harvest continued for Fuyu and Hachiya varieties. Freezing temperatures in mid-January led to reports of damaged avocado trees and fruit, but final damage is still being assessed. Grape vineyard activities included pruning, trellis system repair, and application of herbicides. Vineyard cover crops emerged. Strawberry nursery stock digging continued throughout the month. Olive orchard pruning and brush shredding continued in Tulare County. Almond, walnut, and pistachio growers pruned, shredded, irrigated, applied herbicides, and pushed out old orchards for replanting. Walnut growers applied soil amendments. Cold weather provided ample chilling hours for stone fruit and nut growers. Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Due to severe weather conditions in California and the Desert Southwest, some survey procedures have been changed for this season. The grower and packer surveys have been moved up to March, with an additional packer survey in April. The March objective measurement survey in California will not be conducted. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 4.3 percent. However, if you exclude the 6 abnormal production years (4 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.3 percent, or 3.0 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 7.4 percent, or 5.4 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 362,000 tons (308,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 745,000 tons (3,000 tons to 638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Jeff Geuder, Chief .(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526 Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 King Whetstone - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Greg Thessen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-2127 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Lance Honig, Head (202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 Rich Holcomb - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts (202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250 Faye Propsom- Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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Agriculture at the Crossroads: Energy, Farm & Rural Policy March 1-2, 2007 Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia The Forum will feature Secretary Mike Johanns, distinguished guest speakers, and a panel of America's leading CEOs focusing on the impact of bioenergy on agriculture. Attendees at the 83rd annual Outlook Forum will include top officials, industry analysts, business leaders, farmers and ranchers, and other experts in agriculture.  $300 if you register by Feb. 5, 2007  $350 if you register after Feb. 5, 2007 For a program preview & to register, go to: www.usda.gov/oce/forum  Topical sessions, including luncheon and dinner speakers  Networking opportunities, 1,500 expected to attend Find full program and registration details at agforum@oce.usda.gov or write to 2007 Outlook Forum, Room 4426 South Building, USDA, Washington, D.C. 20250-3812.