Cr Pr 2-2 (3-07) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 9, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Down 9 Percent The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2006-07 season is 7.43 million tons, down 9 percent from the previous forecast and 18 percent below last season's revised final utilization of 9.00 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 132 million boxes (5.94 million tons), is down 6 percent from February and 11 percent lower than the revised utilization from the 2005-06 season's crop. Below freezing temperatures were recorded on two different occasions during the month but the duration was not long enough to cause any severe damage to groves. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 67.0 million boxes (3.02 million tons), down 11 percent from both the previous forecast and last season's final utilization. The row count survey conducted February 28 and March 1 indicates that less than 3 percent of the early-midseason orange rows remain to be harvested. The current forecast is reduced from last month based on current utilization data. Florida's Valencia forecast is 65.0 million boxes (2.93 million tons), unchanged from the February forecast but down 11 percent from last season's revised final utilization. Valencia harvest had begun, with nearly 1.5 million boxes utilized to March 1. California's all orange forecast, at 37.0 million boxes (1.39 million tons), is 20 percent below the January forecast and 39 percent lower than last season's revised final utilization of 60.5 million boxes (2.27 million tons). Reports of damage from January's freeze varied widely from groves being completely unaffected to others where the crop was considered a complete loss. California's navel orange utilization is forecast at 27.0 million boxes (1.01 million tons), down 18 percent from the previous forecast and 43 percent lower than last season's revised utilization. Harvest had begun before the freeze but many growers reported that much of their remaining fruit would be utilized for juice. California's Valencia forecast is 10.0 million boxes (375,000 tons), down 23 percent from the January forecast and 26 percent below the revised utilization from the 2005-06 season's crop. Harvest will not begin for several more weeks. The Texas all orange forecast is 1.98 million boxes (84,000 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 24 percent higher than last season's final utilized production. The Texas crop was not faced with adverse weather conditions this season, and growers are optimistic about their prospects for a good crop. Arizona's all orange utilization forecast, at 350,000 boxes (14,000 tons), is unchanged form the previous forecast but 22 percent lower than the 2005-06 season. Navel harvest is nearly complete, with a higher percentage of this season's crop being utilized for juice. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2006-07 season is forecast at 1.62 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up from 1.61 gallons per box last month but down from the 2005-06 season's yield of 1.63 gallons. Projected yield from the early-midseason portion is 1.56 gallons, up from 1.55 gallons last month and 1.53 gallons last season. Valencias are projected to yield 1.72 gallons, down from 1.75 gallons for the 2005-06 crop. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on March 9, 2007. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Tangerines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Temples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Sugarcane . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . .16 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2005-2006 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 376.0 386.0 31.4 35.8 11,806 13,819 HI 2/ : 21.7 20.3 80.8 83.5 1,753 1,695 LA 2/ : 420.0 405.0 22.9 27.0 9,618 10,935 TX 2/ : 40.5 45.0 38.3 38.9 1,551 1,751 : US : 858.2 856.3 28.8 32.9 24,728 28,200 : For Seed : FL : 25.0 19.0 37.6 35.2 940 669 HI 2/ : 1.8 2.0 34.8 33.3 63 67 LA 2/ : 35.0 30.0 22.9 27.0 802 810 TX 2/ : 1.9 1.5 38.3 35.0 73 53 : US : 63.7 52.5 29.5 30.5 1,878 1,599 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 401.0 405.0 31.8 35.8 12,746 14,488 HI 2/ : 23.5 22.3 77.3 79.0 1,816 1,762 LA 2/ : 455.0 435.0 22.9 27.0 10,420 11,745 TX 2/ : 42.4 46.5 38.3 38.8 1,624 1,804 : US : 921.9 908.8 28.9 32.8 26,606 29,799 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2006 Summary." Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Jan : 2,280 2,350 1,790 1,135 2,920 2,410 Feb : 2,285 2,360 1,795 1,145 2,240 2,070 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2004-05, 2005-06 and Forecasted March 1, 2007 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2004-05 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2004-05 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 3/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early, Mid & : Navel 4/ : AZ : 240 250 200 9 9 8 CA : 44,000 47,000 27,000 1,650 1,763 1,013 FL 5/ : 79,100 75,000 67,000 3,560 3,375 3,015 TX : 1,500 1,400 1,710 64 60 73 US : 124,840 123,650 95,910 5,283 5,207 4,109 Valencia : AZ : 190 200 150 7 8 6 CA : 20,500 13,500 10,000 769 506 375 FL : 70,700 72,700 65,000 3,182 3,272 2,925 TX : 270 200 270 11 9 11 US : 91,660 86,600 75,420 3,969 3,795 3,317 All : AZ : 430 450 350 16 17 14 CA : 64,500 60,500 37,000 2,419 2,269 1,388 FL : 149,800 147,700 132,000 6,742 6,647 5,940 TX : 1,770 1,600 1,980 75 69 84 US : 216,500 210,250 171,330 9,252 9,002 7,426 Temples 5/ : FL : 650 700 29 32 Grapefruit : White : FL : 3,400 6,500 10,000 145 276 425 Colored : FL : 9,400 12,800 18,000 400 544 765 All : AZ : 140 100 100 5 3 3 CA : 6,100 6,000 4,800 204 201 161 FL : 12,800 19,300 28,000 545 820 1,190 TX : 6,600 5,200 6,500 264 208 260 US : 25,640 30,600 39,400 1,018 1,232 1,614 Tangerines : AZ 6/ : 400 550 300 15 21 11 CA 6/ : 2,900 3,600 2,600 109 135 98 FL : 4,450 5,500 4,800 211 261 228 US : 7,750 9,650 7,700 335 417 337 Lemons : AZ : 2,400 3,800 2,500 91 144 95 CA : 20,500 21,000 16,500 779 798 627 US : 22,900 24,800 19,000 870 942 722 Tangelos : FL : 1,550 1,400 1,250 70 63 56 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ 2005-06 revised. 3/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 5/ Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3,452.0 2,951.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 78,327.0 70,648.0 Corn for Silage : 6,477.0 Hay, All : 60,807.0 Alfalfa : 21,384.0 All Other : 39,423.0 Oats : 4,168.0 1,576.0 Proso Millet : 580.0 475.0 Rice : 2,838.0 2,821.0 Rye : 1,396.0 274.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 6,522.0 4,937.0 Sorghum for Silage : 347.0 Wheat, All : 57,344.0 46,810.0 Winter : 40,575.0 44,089.0 31,117.0 Durum : 1,870.0 1,815.0 Other Spring : 14,899.0 13,878.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,044.0 1,021.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 813.0 767.0 Mustard Seed : 40.5 39.2 Peanuts : 1,243.0 1,209.0 Rapeseed : 1.4 1.0 Safflower : 189.0 179.0 Soybeans for Beans : 75,522.0 74,602.0 Sunflower : 1,950.0 1,770.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 15,274.0 12,731.5 Upland : 14,948.0 12,408.0 Amer-Pima : 326.0 323.5 Sugarbeets : 1,366.7 1,304.1 Sugarcane : 908.8 Tobacco : 339.0 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 46.0 22.5 Dry Edible Beans : 1,629.8 1,537.6 Dry Edible Peas : 925.5 884.1 Lentils : 429.0 407.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 Hops : 29.4 Peppermint Oil : 79.2 Potatoes, All : 1,134.7 1,115.5 Winter : 17.7 11.5 17.5 11.5 Spring : 70.7 67.5 Summer : 58.4 54.3 Fall : 987.9 976.2 Spearmint Oil : 18.5 Sweet Potatoes : 95.6 87.2 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 61.0 180,051 Corn for Grain :" : 149.1 10,534,868 Corn for Silage :Tons : 16.2 104,849 Hay, All :" : 2.33 141,666 Alfalfa :" : 3.35 71,666 All Other :" : 1.78 70,000 Oats :Bu : 59.5 93,764 Proso Millet :" : 21.5 10,195 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 6,868 193,736 Rye :Bu : 26.3 7,193 Sorghum for Grain :" : 56.2 277,538 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 13.4 4,642 Wheat, All :Bu : 38.7 1,812,036 Winter :" : 41.7 1,298,081 Durum :" : 29.5 53,475 Other Spring :" : 33.2 460,480 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,366 1,394,332 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 7,632.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 14.4 11,019 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 720 28,220 Peanuts :" : 2,874 3,474,450 Rapeseed :" : 1,100 1,100 Safflower :" : 1,069 191,405 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 42.7 3,188,247 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,211 2,143,613 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 819 21,729.0 Upland 2/ :" : 811 20,973.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,122 756.0 Sugarbeets :Tons : 25.9 33,765 Sugarcane :" : 32.8 29,799 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,144 726,724 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,151 259 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,577 24,247 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,493 13,203 Lentils 2/ :" : 797 3,244 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 590 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,160 7,300 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 43,000 4,300 Hops :" : 1,964 57,686.7 Peppermint Oil :" : 92 7,248 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 390 434,683 Winter :" : 257 250 4,495 2,875 Spring :" : 293 19,766 Summer :" : 340 18,444 Fall :" : 402 391,978 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 110 2,038 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 189 16,441 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :-------------------------------------------- : : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Tons : 1,018 1,232 1,614 Lemons : " : 870 942 722 Oranges 3/ : " : 9,252 9,002 7,426 Tangelos (FL) : " : 70 63 56 Tangerines : " : 335 417 337 Temples (FL) 3/ : " : 29 32 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 9,719.9 10,072.1 Apricots : Tons : 81.7 44.7 Bananas (HI) : Lbs : 20,900.0 17,000.0 Grapes : Tons : 7,813.7 6,346.3 Olives (CA) : " : 142.0 23.5 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 32,900.0 28,300.0 Peaches : Tons : 1,184.6 1,010.1 Pears : " : 823.3 841.0 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 97.0 170.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 9.1 21.3 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled): Lbs : 915,000 1,095,000 Hazelnuts (OR) : Tons : 27.6 41.0 Pecans : Lbs : 280,250 188,900 Walnuts (CA) : Tons : 355.0 350.0 Maple Syrup : Gals : 1,242 1,449 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2/ Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,396,990 1,194,240 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,698,150 28,590,540 Corn for Silage : 2,621,180 Hay, All 3/ : 24,607,980 Alfalfa : 8,653,890 All Other : 15,954,090 Oats : 1,686,750 637,790 Proso Millet : 234,720 192,230 Rice : 1,148,510 1,141,630 Rye : 564,950 110,890 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 2,639,390 1,997,950 Sorghum for Silage : 140,430 Wheat, All 3/ :23,206,540 18,943,540 Winter :16,420,300 17,842,380 12,592,740 Durum : 756,770 734,510 Other Spring : 6,029,480 5,616,290 : Oilseeds : Canola : 422,500 413,190 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 329,010 310,400 Mustard Seed : 16,390 15,860 Peanuts : 503,030 489,270 Rapeseed : 570 400 Safflower : 76,490 72,440 Soybeans for Beans :30,563,000 30,190,680 Sunflower : 789,150 716,300 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 6,181,240 5,152,310 Upland : 6,049,310 5,021,390 Amer-Pima : 131,930 130,920 Sugarbeets : 553,090 527,760 Sugarcane : 367,780 Tobacco : 137,170 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 18,620 9,110 Dry Edible Beans : 659,560 622,250 Dry Edible Peas : 374,540 357,790 Lentils : 173,610 164,710 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 Ginger Root (HI) : 40 Hops : 11,880 Peppermint Oil : 32,050 Potatoes, All 3/ : 459,200 451,430 Winter : 7,160 4,650 7,080 4,650 Spring : 28,610 27,320 Summer : 23,630 21,970 Fall : 399,790 395,060 Spearmint Oil : 7,490 Sweet Potatoes : 38,690 35,290 Taro (HI) 5/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.28 3,920,150 Corn for Grain : 9.36 267,597,970 Corn for Silage : 36.29 95,117,410 Hay, All 2/ : 5.22 128,517,230 Alfalfa : 7.51 65,014,300 All Other : 3.98 63,502,930 Oats : 2.13 1,360,980 Proso Millet : 1.20 231,220 Rice : 7.70 8,787,720 Rye : 1.65 182,710 Sorghum for Grain : 3.53 7,049,790 Sorghum for Silage : 29.99 4,211,150 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.60 49,315,540 Winter : 2.81 35,327,980 Durum : 1.98 1,455,350 Other Spring : 2.23 12,532,210 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.53 632,460 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,923,630 Flaxseed : 0.90 279,900 Mustard Seed : 0.81 12,800 Peanuts : 3.22 1,575,980 Rapeseed : 1.23 500 Safflower : 1.20 86,820 Soybeans for Beans : 2.87 86,769,860 Sunflower : 1.36 972,330 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.92 4,730,930 Upland : 0.91 4,566,330 Amer-Pima : 1.26 164,600 Sugarbeets : 58.04 30,631,090 Sugarcane : 73.50 27,033,200 Tobacco : 2.40 329,640 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.29 11,750 Dry Edible Beans : 1.77 1,099,830 Dry Edible Peas : 1.67 598,880 Lentils : 0.89 147,150 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 26,760 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.30 3,310 Ginger Root (HI) : 48.20 1,950 Hops : 2.20 26,170 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,290 Potatoes, All 2/ : 43.68 19,716,890 Winter : 28.79 28.02 203,890 130,410 Spring : 32.82 896,570 Summer : 38.07 836,610 Fall : 45.01 17,779,820 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 920 Sweet Potatoes : 21.13 745,750 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,040 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 923,510 1,117,650 1,464,200 Lemons : 789,250 854,570 654,990 Oranges 3/ : 8,393,270 8,166,480 6,736,750 Tangelos (FL) : 63,500 57,150 50,800 Tangerines : 303,910 378,300 305,720 Temples (FL) 3/ : 26,310 29,030 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,408,870 4,568,630 Apricots : 74,070 40,530 Bananas (HI) : 9,480 7,710 Grapes : 7,088,470 5,757,220 Olives (CA) : 128,820 21,320 Papayas (HI) : 14,920 12,840 Peaches : 1,074,610 916,370 Pears : 746,900 762,970 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 88,000 154,220 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 8,260 19,320 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 415,040 496,680 Hazelnuts (OR) : 25,040 37,190 Pecans : 127,120 85,680 Walnuts (CA) : 322,050 317,510 Maple Syrup : 6,210 7,240 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2/ Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. February Weather Summary During February, wetter-than-normal conditions were observed in most areas from northern California eastward across the interior Northwest, northern Plains, and western Corn Belt. Precipitation was especially beneficial in the Sierra Nevada, where according to the California Department of Water Resources the water equivalent of the high-elevation snow pack improved from 8 to 16 inches (44 to 64 percent of normal for the date) between January 31 and February 28. Precipitation also aided winter grains across the interior Northwest and boosted high-elevation snow packs from the northern Great Basin to the northern Rockies. However, areas farther south received little moisture, resulting in drought intensification across southern California and Arizona. Meanwhile on the Plains, wetter-than-normal conditions across the northern half of the region contrasted with below-normal precipitation farther south. Conditions were dry enough on the southern Plains to contribute to a dust storm on February 24, when high winds raked the region. On the northern Plains, however, occasional snow provided both moisture and insulation for winter wheat. During the mid- to late-month period, wintry precipitation shifted into the Midwest and Northeast, hampering rural travel and increasing livestock stress. A mid-February storm was particularly harsh across the central and eastern Corn Belt and the interior Northeast, with at least 10 inches of snow reported from central Illinois into northern Ohio, and as much as 20 to 40 inches falling from eastern New York into western Maine. Two late-month storms, just 5 days apart, produced a variety of weather impacts. Both storms plastered the upper Midwest with heavy snow, raked the Plains and Corn Belt with high winds, and triggered lowland flooding in parts of the central and eastern Corn Belt. Despite occasional showers and several severe thunderstorm outbreaks, most of the South observed below-normal February rainfall. As a result, spring planting preparations and other early-season fieldwork proceeded with only minor delays. Nevertheless, strong thunderstorms spawned Southern tornadoes on February 1-2, 12-13, 23-24, and 28. The fourth severe weather outbreak continued into early March. Storms were particularly deadly in central Florida during the pre-dawn hours of February 2, when there were 20 tornado-related fatalities in Lake County. Elsewhere across central and interior southern Florida, the coldest air of the season brought light freezes on February 17 and 19, although temperatures were not low enough to significantly threaten citrus, sugarcane, strawberries, or vegetables. Colder-than-normal weather from the Plains to the East Coast contrasted with near- to above-normal temperatures in the West. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 10 degrees F below normal from the central Corn Belt eastward into the central Appalachians. It was the coldest February since 1979 at numerous locations in the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic States. Meanwhile, monthly temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees F above normal at several interior Western sites. February Agricultural Summary February was colder than usual for most States east of the Rocky Mountains, with the exception of a few scattered areas. From the northern Great Plains stretching east toward the Ohio Valley, average temperatures were 6 to 12 degrees below normal. Meanwhile, the northern Intermountain region and the central Rocky Mountains experienced above normal temperatures throughout much of February. Precipitation was below normal in the southern Great Plains, Delta, and the Southeast regions. In Texas, sunny conditions promoted fieldwork and crop development, yet more rain was needed to aid field activities. In contrast, precipitation during February was as much as 200 percent or more of normal in scattered pockets throughout the northern Rocky Mountains, northern Great Plains, and parts of the central Intermountain region. In North Dakota, precipitation in the form of snow provided excellent snow cover for alfalfa and winter wheat. The heavy snowfall also provided protection to the winter wheat crop in Montana from wind, freeze, and drought damage. Elsewhere, in California insufficient rainfall affected small grains and winter pastures early in the month but conditions started to improve in some areas after mid-month. Cold fronts swept through Florida, causing producers to provide cold protection to most crops as temperatures dipped below freezing. However, Florida's crops escaped significant damage from the cold weather. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for the 2006 crop year is estimated at 29.8 million tons, 12 percent above 2005 and up fractionally from last month. Harvested area is estimated at 908,800 acres for sugar and seed during the 2006 crop year, down 1 percent from the 2005 harvested area but unchanged from the February estimate. Yield is estimated at 32.8 tons per acre, 3.9 tons greater than the 2005 crop and 0.1 ton higher than the previous estimate. The yield in Florida for sugar and seed, at 35.8 tons per acre, is up 0.1 ton from last month and 4.0 tons from last year. Near freezing temperatures in Florida during February did little to no damage to sugarcane plants. Harvest is progressing normally and is expected to conclude by mid-March. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from February. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.07 million pounds for February, down 14 percent from January and 8 percent less than February 2006. Area in crop totaled 2,360 acres, up less than 1 percent from last month and 3 percent higher than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 1,145 acres in February, up 1 percent from January but 36 percent lower than February 2006. Conditions in papaya growing areas were generally favorable during February which resulted in trees showing new growth and steady flowering. Heavy rain slowed field activities during the last week of the month. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2006-07 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.61 million tons, up 3 percent from the previous forecast and 31 percent higher than last season's final utilization of 1.23 million tons. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 28.0 million boxes (1.19 million tons), up 8 percent from the February forecast and 45 percent above last season's hurricane-reduced final utilization of 19.3 million boxes (820,000 tons). The all white grapefruit forecast is 10.0 million boxes (425,000 tons), up 11 percent from February and 54 percent above last season's final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 18.0 million boxes (765,000 tons), is up 6 percent from last month and 41 percent above last season's utilization. The row count survey conducted February 28 and March 1 showed 52 percent of all grapefruit rows harvested compared to 58 percent harvested to the same point last year. Overall, fruit quality has been reported as excellent this season. California's grapefruit forecast, at 4.80 million boxes (161,000 tons), is down 20 percent from both the previous forecast and the previous season. Damage from the January freeze varied widely depending on variety and grove location. Harvest had resumed in the Central Valley with high packing house eliminations due to ice marking. Fruit in most of the desert areas was reported to have experienced less freeze damage than in other areas of the State. The Texas grapefruit forecast is 6.50 million boxes (260,000 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but up 25 percent from last season's utilized production. Arizona's grapefruit forecast is 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons), unchanged from both the previous forecast and last season's utilization. Lemons: The forecast for the 2006-07 U.S. lemon crop, at 722,000 tons, is down 18 percent from the January 1 forecast and 23 percent below last season's utilization. California production is forecast at 16.5 million boxes (627,000 tons), down 20 percent from the previous forecast and 21 percent lower than utilization for the 2005-06 season. Harvest had begun when the freeze hit in January. Harvest resumed on a limited basis in February as marketable fruit was identified. Arizona's 2006-07 lemon forecast, at 2.50 million boxes (95,000 tons), is down 11 percent from the January forecast and down 34 percent from the previous season. The majority of the current season's crop had been harvested before the freeze, which effectively ended the season. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.25 million boxes (56,000 tons), up 4 percent from the February 1 forecast but down 11 percent from last season's final utilized production. Weekly tangelo utilization had declined significantly for the season, with less than 10,000 boxes harvested the last two weeks of the month. Tangerines: The 2006-07 U.S. tangerine forecast is 337,000 tons, down 11 percent from the February forecast and 19 percent lower than last season's final utilization of 417,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.80 million boxes (228,000 tons), up 4 percent from the February forecast but down 13 percent from last season's utilization of 5.50 million boxes. Early variety tangerine harvest is complete, while the row count survey conducted on February 28 and March 1 showed 36 percent of the later maturing Honey tangerine rows had been harvested. California's forecast of tangerine production, at 2.60 million boxes (98,000 tons), is down 32 percent from the January 1 forecast and 28 percent below last season's utilized production. The bulk of the Clementine crop was harvested before January's freeze. Damage to later maturing varieties varied by location. Harvest continued as growers encountered marketable fruit. The Arizona tangerine forecast, at 300,000 boxes (11,000 tons), is down 25 percent from the previous forecast and 45 percent below last year's utilization. The January freeze ended the harvest for the season. Florida Citrus: Florida's citrus crop escaped serious damage from two cold snaps during February. The first occurred early in the month with temperatures recorded in the low to mid 30s in all citrus areas, while strong winds produced tornados and heavy rainfall in the northern citrus area. The storms skirted the upper part of the citrus region, just touching the northernmost groves. The second cold front came two weeks later, with below freezing temperatures recorded across the State. Cold pockets between 27 and 32 degrees were recorded in some citrus areas, but the duration was generally not long enough to damage fruit or trees. Some freeze-burn was reported on flushes of new growth, which could affect next year's crop. The cold weather was beneficial in holding back what could have been an early bloom and helping mature fruit on some of the later ripening tangerine varieties. Warmer weather followed and continued through the end of the month. Rainfall was plentiful in the north, but inadequate on the east coast and in the south. Growers ran drip irrigation and pumped water into grove middles to keep the trees hydrated. Harvest of early and midseason oranges was at peak levels early in the month but then dropped in each succeeding week. Valencia harvest began during the third week. Grapefruit harvest for processing increased, reaching one and a half million boxes during the second week. Navel orange, Sunburst tangerine and Tangelo harvests slowed during the month and were virtually complete for the season. Growers and caretakers began hedging and topping as well as applying pesticides in preparation for next season's crop. Arizona Citrus: Extended freezing temperatures in January effectively ended this season's harvest of lemons and tangerines. Navel orange and grapefruit harvests continued through the month, but with a larger percentage of the crop being utilized for juice. Packers are still evaluating grove conditions following the freeze. Growers are monitoring bud count and growth and are concerned about possible damage to next season's bloom. Texas Citrus: Harvests of early and mid-season oranges and grapefruit continued, while Valencia orange harvest began in early February. Growers generally reported good quality and size of fruit. After getting off to a slow start, year-to-date shipments of oranges and grapefruit were ahead of last season by the last week of February. California Citrus: Damage to the State's citrus crop was still being assessed. Harvest for fresh market utilization continued, especially in areas that did not experience the most extreme temperatures. Harvest of oranges for juice continued. Some growers treated groves to control fungus and weeds. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Grape vineyard operators continued fertilizing, irrigating, pruning, applying herbicides, and making repairs to their trellis systems. Stone fruit and pomegranate cultural practices included irrigation, applications of fertilizer and pesticides, pruning, shredding, and the pushing of orchards in order to replant. Apricot trees were blooming in Tulare County and early blooms were noted on peaches, nectarines, plums, and pluots. Digging of strawberry nursery stock was complete by the end of the month. Almond, walnut, and pistachio growers continued with pruning, shredding, irrigating, applying herbicides, and the removal of old orchards for replanting. Almond trees were blooming and new almond and pistachio orchards were planted. Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Due to severe weather conditions in California and the Desert Southwest in January, some survey procedures have been changed for this season. The grower and packer surveys normally used to set the April forecast were conducted a month earlier than normal and the California Valencia objective measurement survey was discontinued for this season. All estimating States submitted new analyses of current citrus utilization as well as revisions to the 2005-06 season's utilized production for this report. All States will submit new analyses of citrus utilization in April, as originally scheduled. Monthly forecasts of Florida citrus utilization are unaffected by these changes. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These 4 States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 3.2 percent. However, if the 6 abnormal production seasons (4 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons) are excluded, the "Root Mean Square Error" is 1.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.2 percent, or 1.9 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.6 percent, or 3.4 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 237,000 tons (193,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 8,000 tons to 713,000 tons (3,000 tons to 503,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Jeff Geuder, Chief .(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head(202) 720-2127 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings(202) 720-5944 Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye(202) 720-8068 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed(202) 720-9526 Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice(202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds(202) 720-7369 King Whetstone - Hay, Oats, Sorghum(202) 690-3234 Greg Thessen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-2127 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Lance Honig, Head(202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco(202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries(202) 720-2157 Rich Holcomb - Citrus, Tropical Fruits(202) 720-5412 Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts(202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas(202) 720-3250 Faye Propsom- Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops(360) 902-1940 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes(202) 720-4285 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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