Cr Pr 2-2 (4-07) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 10, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Down 1 Percent The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2006-07 season is 7.36 million tons, down 1 percent from the March 1 forecast and 18 percent below last season's final utilization of 9.00 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 131 million boxes (5.88 million tons), is down 1 percent from last month and 12 percent lower than the utilization from the 2005-06 season's crop. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 65.7 million boxes (2.96 million tons), down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 12 percent from last season's final utilization. The row count survey conducted March 28-29 indicated that 1 percent of the early and midseason orange rows remained to be harvested. Navel harvest was complete. The forecast is reduced from last month based on current utilization data. Florida's Valencia forecast is 65.0 million boxes (2.93 million tons), unchanged from the March forecast but down 11 percent from last season's final utilization. The row count survey showed that 21 percent of Valencia rows had been harvested. California's all orange forecast, at 37.0 million boxes (1.39 million tons), is unchanged from the March forecast but 39 percent lower than last season's final utilization of 60.5 million boxes (2.27 million tons). California's navel orange utilization is forecast at 27.0 million boxes (1.01 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 43 percent lower than last season's final utilization. Packing houses continue to find some good quality navel oranges. California's Valencia forecast is 10.0 million boxes (375,000 tons), unchanged from the March 1 forecast but 26 percent below the utilization from the 2005-06 season's crop. A few packing houses were scheduled to start handling Valencia oranges in early April. The Texas all orange forecast is 1.85 million boxes (78,000 tons), down 7 percent from the March 1 forecast but 16 percent higher than last season's final utilized production. The Texas early and midseason orange harvest was virtually complete. Arizona's all orange utilization forecast, at 350,000 boxes (14,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 22 percent lower than the 2005-06 season. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2006-07 season is forecast at a record high 1.65 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up from 1.62 gallons per box last month and the 2005-06 season's yield of 1.63 gallons. Yield from the early-midseason portion is 1.56 gallons, unchanged from last month but up from 1.53 gallons last season. Valencias are projected to yield 1.78 gallons, up from 1.72 gallons last month and 1.75 gallons for the 2005-06 crop. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on April 10, 2007. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . . 4 Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . . 4 Tangerines. . . . . . . . . . 4 Temples . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops Potatoes. . . . . . . . . . . 5 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . .14 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . 6 Information Contacts . . . . . .18 Reliability of Production Data in this Report17 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . .12 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . .13 Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2004-05, 2005-06 and Forecasted April 1, 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2004-05 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2004-05 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 240 250 200 9 9 8 CA : 44,000 47,000 27,000 1,650 1,763 1,013 FL 4/ : 79,100 75,000 65,700 3,560 3,375 2,957 TX : 1,500 1,400 1,580 64 60 67 US : 124,840 123,650 94,480 5,283 5,207 4,045 Valencia : AZ : 190 200 150 7 8 6 CA : 20,500 13,500 10,000 769 506 375 FL : 70,700 72,700 65,000 3,182 3,272 2,925 TX : 270 200 270 11 9 11 US : 91,660 86,600 75,420 3,969 3,795 3,317 All : AZ : 430 450 350 16 17 14 CA : 64,500 60,500 37,000 2,419 2,269 1,388 FL : 149,800 147,700 130,700 6,742 6,647 5,882 TX : 1,770 1,600 1,850 75 69 78 US : 216,500 210,250 169,900 9,252 9,002 7,362 Temples 4/ : FL : 650 700 29 32 Grapefruit : White : FL : 3,400 6,500 10,000 145 276 425 Colored : FL : 9,400 12,800 18,000 400 544 765 All : AZ : 140 100 100 5 3 3 CA : 6,100 6,000 4,800 204 201 161 FL : 12,800 19,300 28,000 545 820 1,190 TX : 6,600 5,200 6,500 264 208 260 US : 25,640 30,600 39,400 1,018 1,232 1,614 Tangerines : AZ 5/ : 400 550 300 15 21 11 CA 5/ : 2,900 3,600 2,600 109 135 98 FL : 4,450 5,500 4,600 211 261 219 US : 7,750 9,650 7,500 335 417 328 Lemons : AZ : 2,400 3,800 2,500 91 144 95 CA : 20,500 21,000 16,500 779 798 627 US : 22,900 24,800 19,000 870 942 722 Tangelos : FL : 1,550 1,400 1,250 70 63 56 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 5/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :---------------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------ State : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 :2006 :2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Acres -------- -- Cwt -- ----- 1,000 Cwt ---- : Winter : CA : 12.0 11.5 12.0 11.5 260 215 3,500 3,120 2,473 FL 1/ : 5.7 5.5 250 1,392 1,375 : Total : 17.7 11.5 17.5 11.5 257 215 4,892 4,495 2,473 : Spring : AZ : 3.9 3.5 3.9 3.5 300 300 1,183 1,170 1,050 CA : 15.3 15.5 15.3 15.5 395 395 6,116 6,044 6,123 FL 1/ : 23.1 27.8 22.6 27.2 285 290 6,527 6,441 7,888 Hastings : 17.0 16.5 16.6 16.2 285 290 4,760 4,731 4,698 Other FL : 6.1 11.3 6.0 11.0 285 290 1,767 1,710 3,190 NC : 17.7 16.0 15.5 14.5 210 200 2,850 3,255 2,900 TX : 10.7 9.6 10.2 9.1 280 315 2,048 2,856 2,867 : Total : 70.7 72.4 67.5 69.8 293 298 18,724 19,766 20,828 : Summer 2/ : AL : 1.7 1.6 150 195 240 CA : 6.3 6.3 335 2,201 2,111 CO : 4.1 4.0 370 1,838 1,480 DE : 3.0 2.1 240 806 504 IL : 6.5 6.3 395 2,090 2,489 KS : 6.0 5.7 320 1,800 1,824 MD : 4.0 2.9 320 884 928 MO : 7.8 7.6 315 2,142 2,394 NJ : 2.5 2.5 240 536 600 TX : 10.5 9.7 440 4,046 4,268 VA : 6.0 5.6 270 1,029 1,512 : Total : 58.4 54.3 338 17,567 18,350 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Winter potatoes combined with spring potatoes in 2007. 2/ 2006 revised. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Feb : 2,285 2,360 1,795 1,145 2,240 2,070 Mar : 2,070 1,935 1,785 870 2,210 2,160 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3,452.0 3,703.0 2,951.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 78,327.0 90,454.0 70,648.0 Corn for Silage : 6,477.0 Hay, All : 60,807.0 63,056.0 Alfalfa : 21,384.0 All Other : 39,423.0 Oats : 4,168.0 4,029.0 1,576.0 Proso Millet : 580.0 475.0 Rice : 2,838.0 2,644.0 2,821.0 Rye : 1,396.0 274.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 6,522.0 7,109.0 4,937.0 Sorghum for Silage : 347.0 Wheat, All : 57,344.0 60,303.0 46,810.0 Winter : 40,575.0 44,505.0 31,117.0 Durum : 1,870.0 1,990.0 1,815.0 Other Spring : 14,899.0 13,808.0 13,878.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,044.0 1,168.0 1,021.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 813.0 390.0 767.0 Mustard Seed : 40.5 39.2 Peanuts : 1,243.0 1,197.0 1,209.0 Rapeseed : 1.4 1.0 Safflower : 189.0 179.0 Soybeans for Beans : 75,522.0 67,140.0 74,602.0 Sunflower : 1,950.0 1,799.0 1,770.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 15,274.0 12,147.0 12,731.5 Upland : 14,948.0 11,855.0 12,408.0 Amer-Pima : 326.0 292.0 323.5 Sugarbeets : 1,366.7 1,294.7 1,304.1 Sugarcane : 908.8 Tobacco : 339.0 344.2 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 46.0 37.0 22.5 Dry Edible Beans : 1,629.8 1,504.5 1,537.6 Dry Edible Peas : 925.5 902.0 884.1 Lentils : 429.0 340.0 407.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 Hops : 29.4 Peppermint Oil : 79.2 Potatoes, All : 1,134.7 1,115.5 Winter : 17.7 11.5 17.5 11.5 Spring : 70.7 72.4 67.5 69.8 Summer : 58.4 54.3 Fall : 987.9 976.2 Spearmint Oil : 18.5 Sweet Potatoes : 95.6 92.9 87.2 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 61.0 180,051 Corn for Grain :" : 149.1 10,534,868 Corn for Silage :Tons : 16.2 104,849 Hay, All :" : 2.33 141,666 Alfalfa :" : 3.35 71,666 All Other :" : 1.78 70,000 Oats :Bu : 59.5 93,764 Proso Millet :" : 21.5 10,195 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 6,868 193,736 Rye :Bu : 26.3 7,193 Sorghum for Grain :" : 56.2 277,538 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 13.4 4,642 Wheat, All :Bu : 38.7 1,812,036 Winter :" : 41.7 1,298,081 Durum :" : 29.5 53,475 Other Spring :" : 33.2 460,480 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,366 1,394,332 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 7,632.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 14.4 11,019 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 720 28,220 Peanuts :" : 2,874 3,474,450 Rapeseed :" : 1,100 1,100 Safflower :" : 1,069 191,405 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 42.7 3,188,247 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,211 2,143,613 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 819 21,729.0 Upland 2/ :" : 811 20,973.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,122 756.0 Sugarbeets :Tons : 25.9 33,765 Sugarcane :" : 32.8 29,799 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,144 726,724 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,151 259 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,577 24,247 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,493 13,203 Lentils 2/ :" : 797 3,244 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 590 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,160 7,300 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 43,000 4,300 Hops :" : 1,964 57,686.7 Peppermint Oil :" : 92 7,248 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 390 434,589 Winter :" : 257 215 4,495 2,473 Spring :" : 293 298 19,766 20,828 Summer :" : 338 18,350 Fall :" : 402 391,978 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 110 2,038 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 189 16,441 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :-------------------------------------------- : : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Tons : 1,018 1,232 1,614 Lemons : " : 870 942 722 Oranges 3/ : " : 9,252 9,002 7,362 Tangelos (FL) : " : 70 63 56 Tangerines : " : 335 417 328 Temples (FL) 3/ : " : 29 32 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 9,719.9 10,072.1 Apricots : Tons : 81.7 44.7 Bananas (HI) : Lbs : 20,900.0 17,000.0 Grapes : Tons : 7,813.7 6,346.3 Olives (CA) : " : 142.0 23.5 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 32,900.0 28,300.0 Peaches : Tons : 1,184.6 1,010.1 Pears : " : 823.3 841.0 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 97.0 170.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 9.1 21.3 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled): Lbs : 915,000 1,095,000 Hazelnuts (OR) : Tons : 27.6 41.0 Pecans : Lbs : 280,250 188,900 Walnuts (CA) : Tons : 355.0 350.0 Maple Syrup : Gals : 1,242 1,449 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2/ Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,396,990 1,498,570 1,194,240 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,698,150 36,605,830 28,590,540 Corn for Silage : 2,621,180 Hay, All 3/ : 24,607,980 25,518,130 Alfalfa : 8,653,890 All Other : 15,954,090 Oats : 1,686,750 1,630,500 637,790 Proso Millet : 234,720 192,230 Rice : 1,148,510 1,070,000 1,141,630 Rye : 564,950 110,890 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 2,639,390 2,876,940 1,997,950 Sorghum for Silage : 140,430 Wheat, All 3/ :23,206,540 24,404,020 18,943,540 Winter :16,420,300 18,010,730 12,592,740 Durum : 756,770 805,330 734,510 Other Spring : 6,029,480 5,587,960 5,616,290 : Oilseeds : Canola : 422,500 472,680 413,190 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 329,010 157,830 310,400 Mustard Seed : 16,390 15,860 Peanuts : 503,030 484,410 489,270 Rapeseed : 570 400 Safflower : 76,490 72,440 Soybeans for Beans :30,563,000 27,170,890 30,190,680 Sunflower : 789,150 728,040 716,300 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 6,181,240 4,915,770 5,152,310 Upland : 6,049,310 4,797,600 5,021,390 Amer-Pima : 131,930 118,170 130,920 Sugarbeets : 553,090 523,950 527,760 Sugarcane : 367,780 Tobacco : 137,170 139,280 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 18,620 14,970 9,110 Dry Edible Beans : 659,560 608,860 622,250 Dry Edible Peas : 374,540 365,030 357,790 Lentils : 173,610 137,590 164,710 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 Ginger Root (HI) : 40 Hops : 11,880 Peppermint Oil : 32,050 Potatoes, All 3/ : 459,200 451,430 Winter : 7,160 4,650 7,080 4,650 Spring : 28,610 29,300 27,320 28,250 Summer : 23,630 21,970 Fall : 399,790 395,060 Spearmint Oil : 7,490 Sweet Potatoes : 38,690 37,600 35,290 Taro (HI) 5/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.28 3,920,150 Corn for Grain : 9.36 267,597,970 Corn for Silage : 36.29 95,117,410 Hay, All 2/ : 5.22 128,517,230 Alfalfa : 7.51 65,014,300 All Other : 3.98 63,502,930 Oats : 2.13 1,360,980 Proso Millet : 1.20 231,220 Rice : 7.70 8,787,720 Rye : 1.65 182,710 Sorghum for Grain : 3.53 7,049,790 Sorghum for Silage : 29.99 4,211,150 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.60 49,315,540 Winter : 2.81 35,327,980 Durum : 1.98 1,455,350 Other Spring : 2.23 12,532,210 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.53 632,460 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,923,630 Flaxseed : 0.90 279,900 Mustard Seed : 0.81 12,800 Peanuts : 3.22 1,575,980 Rapeseed : 1.23 500 Safflower : 1.20 86,820 Soybeans for Beans : 2.87 86,769,860 Sunflower : 1.36 972,330 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.92 4,730,930 Upland : 0.91 4,566,330 Amer-Pima : 1.26 164,600 Sugarbeets : 58.04 30,631,090 Sugarcane : 73.50 27,033,200 Tobacco : 2.40 329,640 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.29 11,750 Dry Edible Beans : 1.77 1,099,830 Dry Edible Peas : 1.67 598,880 Lentils : 0.89 147,150 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 26,760 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.30 3,310 Ginger Root (HI) : 48.20 1,950 Hops : 2.20 26,170 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,290 Potatoes, All 2/ : 43.67 19,712,630 Winter : 28.79 24.10 203,890 112,170 Spring : 32.82 33.45 896,570 944,740 Summer : 37.88 832,340 Fall : 45.01 17,779,820 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 920 Sweet Potatoes : 21.13 745,750 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,040 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 923,510 1,117,650 1,464,200 Lemons : 789,250 854,570 654,990 Oranges 3/ : 8,393,270 8,166,480 6,678,690 Tangelos (FL) : 63,500 57,150 50,800 Tangerines : 303,910 378,300 297,560 Temples (FL) 3/ : 26,310 29,030 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,408,870 4,568,630 Apricots : 74,070 40,530 Bananas (HI) : 9,480 7,710 Grapes : 7,088,470 5,757,220 Olives (CA) : 128,820 21,320 Papayas (HI) : 14,920 12,840 Peaches : 1,074,610 916,370 Pears : 746,900 762,970 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 88,000 154,220 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 8,260 19,320 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 415,040 496,680 Hazelnuts (OR) : 25,040 37,190 Pecans : 127,120 85,680 Walnuts (CA) : 322,050 317,510 Maple Syrup : 6,210 7,240 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2/ Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. March Weather Summary Record-setting warmth in March followed a nearly nationwide cold snap from mid-January through February. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 10 degrees F above normal at several sites across the central one-third of the Nation, while cooler-than-normal weather was confined to the Northeast and scattered locations in Florida and along the Pacific Coast. Warmth rivaled conditions observed in March 2004, which was the nation's second-warmest March since the beginning of the 20th century. From the Rockies westward, above-normal temperatures promoted fieldwork and rapid crop development, but caused premature melting of high-elevation snowpacks. Implications of early melting could include the need for careful water management to meet the summer needs of agricultural, environmental, industrial, municipal, and recreational users. Meanwhile on the Plains, winter wheat growth advanced at a faster-than-normal pace, with nearly half (46 percent) of the crop jointing in Kansas by early April (the 5-year average for April 1 is 19 percent) and some heading underway in Texas (7 percent by April 1) and Oklahoma (1 percent). Through the end of March, conditions for wheat development on the Plains were nearly ideal and stood in stark contrast to last year's drought, although frequent storms and abundant soil moisture slowed planting preparations and other spring fieldwork. Farther east, melting snow and a number of moisture-laden storms soaked the western Corn Belt and maintained soggy conditions farther east. Excessive Midwestern moisture was detrimental to winter grains, especially in parts of the eastern Corn Belt, and prevented or significantly curtailed spring planting preparations. Nearly the opposite conditions prevailed across the Southeast, where warm, mostly dry weather promoted planting activities and rapid growth of pastures, winter grains, and emerging summer crops. By month's end, however, worsening Southeastern drought boosted irrigation demands and increased stress on rain-dependent crops. March Agricultural Summary March was warmer than usual coast to coast, except in the Northeast where it was slightly cooler than usual. Temperatures averaged 5 to 10 degrees F above normal from the High Plains through the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and were generally within 5 degrees F of normal elsewhere. Total monthly precipitation was well-above normal in the extreme Pacific Northwest, throughout the Great Plains, and in portions of the middle and upper Mississippi Valley, upper Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Significant precipitation 2 to 4 times normal in Texas, and up to or over 2 times normal further north increased moisture levels across the Great Plains to the benefit of most crops, pastures, and water supplies. The unusually warm weather combined with the abundant moisture to promote rapid greening and development of the winter wheat crop. Favorable conditions allowed farmers in the northern Plains to start planting barley, oats, and spring wheat earlier than usual. In the central and southern Plains, planting of corn, cotton, soybeans, and sorghum was underway, but moderate to heavy rainfall late in the month slowed field preparation activities. Some replanting of corn, cotton, and sorghum may be necessary due to flooding in portions of Texas. Mild weather across the Corn Belt eased stress on livestock, but melting snow, together with moderate to heavy precipitation late in the month, contributed to lowland flooding and soggy soils from the eastern Dakotas into Indiana. The overly wet conditions hampered farmers efforts to prepare fields for planting, especially in eastern portions of the region. Winter wheat broke dormancy, but development lagged behind normal. Warm, dry weather allowed farmers in the Delta and Southeast to make good progress with field preparations. Spring planting began earlier than usual and advanced well-ahead of schedule. Persistent dry conditions increased stress on emerging crops and pastures, causing farmers to irrigate some small grains and spring planted crops. In California, warmer than normal temperatures promoted rapid growth of small grains and vegetable crops, but drier than normal conditions increased irrigation requirements and caused dryland crops to show signs of stress. The unseasonably warm weather accelerated bloom and development of stone fruit and almonds. In the Pacific Northwest, winter wheat was in mostly good condition and spring planting was underway. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2006-07 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.61 million tons, unchanged from the March 1 forecast but 31 percent higher than last season's final utilization of 1.23 million tons. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 28.0 million boxes (1.19 million tons), unchanged from last month but 45 percent above last season's hurricane-reduced final utilization of 19.3 million boxes (820,000 tons). The all white grapefruit forecast is 10.0 million boxes (425,000 tons), unchanged from March but 54 percent above last season's final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 18.0 million boxes (765,000 tons), is unchanged from last month but 41 percent above last season's utilization. The row count survey conducted March 28-29 showed 75 percent of all grapefruit rows harvested, with a lower percentage of colored grapefruit harvested than white. Unlike last season, due to the overall excellent quality of this season's crop, the majority of colored grapefruit have been harvested for fresh use. California's grapefruit forecast, at 4.80 million boxes (161,000 tons), is unchanged from the March 1 forecast but down 20 percent from the previous season. As a result of the January freeze, grapefruit and pummelo harvests remained slow. The Texas grapefruit forecast is 6.50 million boxes (260,000 tons), unchanged from the March 1 forecast but up 25 percent from last season's utilized production. Arizona's grapefruit forecast is 100,000 boxes (3,000 tons), unchanged from both the previous forecast and last season's utilization. Tangerines: The 2006-07 U.S. tangerine forecast is 328,000 tons, down 3 percent from the March forecast and 21 percent lower than last season's final utilization of 417,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.60 million boxes (219,000 tons), down 4 percent from the March forecast and 16 percent lower than last season's utilization of 5.50 million boxes. Early variety tangerine harvest is complete, and the row count survey conducted March 28-29 showed that the later maturing Honey tangerine harvest was further along at this point than in any of the previous ten seasons. Honey tangerines are normally harvested through the month of April and into May. California's forecast of tangerine production, at 2.60 million boxes (98,000 tons), is unchanged from the March 1 forecast but 28 percent below last season's utilized production. Most Clementines were picked before the January freeze but Murcott harvest increased in March with good fruit quality reported. The Arizona tangerine forecast, at 300,000 boxes (11,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous month but 45 percent below last year's utilization. Lemons: The forecast for the 2006-07 U.S. lemon crop, at 722,000 tons, is unchanged from the March 1 forecast but 23 percent below last season's utilization. California production is forecast at 16.5 million boxes (627,000 tons), unchanged from March but 21 percent lower than utilization for the 2005-06 season. Packing houses in the desert areas of California had exhausted their lemon supplies. Elsewhere in the State, lemons were still being picked and packed. Volumes in the Central Valley and south coastal regions of the State were low, but fruit quality in the coastal areas was reported as very good. Arizona's 2006-07 lemon forecast, at 2.50 million boxes (95,000 tons), is unchanged from the March forecast but down 34 percent from the previous season. Harvest had ended for this season. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.25 million boxes (56,000 tons), unchanged from the March 1 forecast but down 11 percent from last season's final utilized production. Tangelo harvest is complete with 66 percent of this season's crop being processed. Florida Citrus: Bloom was evident in all citrus growing areas during March. By the third week of the month, full bloom was noted on most citrus varieties in coastal and upper interior areas and a few Valencia orange groves had begun showing petal drop. Field personnel in lower interior groves reported an even, heavy bloom on all varieties. Rainfall for the month was below average in all areas. The east coast and the southern citrus producing areas were very dry, having received about an inch of rainfall for the month. Many days in the lower to mid 80s were recorded in all areas. Most growers were irrigating frequently, but the dry, warm weather could cause problems if rain does not come shortly after the bloom period. Early and midseason orange harvests were completed during March. Valencia harvest increased significantly during the second week of the month. The Valencia harvest was running ahead of the last two years, indicating an earlier maturing crop. Grapefruit harvest continued throughout the month with about two thirds of the harvested fruit being processed. Honey tangerine harvest was steady at between 100,000 and 200,000 boxes per week. Growers and caretakers continued hedging and topping programs and applying pesticides in preparation for the next season's crop. In addition to normal maintenance programs, growers scouted for greening and removed diseased trees. Arizona Citrus: With the exception of Valencia oranges, this season's citrus harvest was mostly complete. Packers reported that some grapefruit might still be harvested but most remaining fruit would be used for juice. Packers were optimistic about the prospects for next season's crop. Bloom appeared to be good in grapefruit and tangerine groves but light in lemon groves. Texas Citrus: Grapefruit and Valencia orange harvests continued throughout the month, while navel oranges were finished. Growers generally reported good quality and size of fruit. California Citrus: Citrus packing houses continued to monitor for freeze damaged fruit. Recovery of citrus groves continued with removal of frost damaged limbs. Hedging and topping of trees continued. Citrus bloom began in most growing areas although growers in some areas fear that bud and tree damage will seriously affect next season's crop. Harvest of oranges, tangerines, tangelos, mandarins, and grapefruit continued throughout the month. Some growers applied foliar nutrients as well as pesticides to control fungus and weeds. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Grape vineyard operators applied fertilizer, irrigated, and sprayed to control weeds throughout the month of March. Pruning and trellis system repairs were completed for the season. Several varieties of grapes had begun leafing out. Stone fruit, nut, and pomegranate orchards were irrigated, fertilized, and herbicides were applied. New orchards were still being planted. Warm weather toward the end of the month encouraged the bloom in stone fruit orchards. Early blooms on peaches, nectarines, and plums were winding down by month's end in Tulare County. Kiwi pruning was almost complete. Cherry and prune orchards were in bloom and blueberry fields were beginning to bloom. Winter cover crops were mowed and disked. Bee pollination was active with recent weather making conditions ideal. Almonds were in full bloom throughout March with petal fall occurring later in the month. Walnut orchards were pruned and limbs were shredded as weather permitted. The addition of soil amendments and applications of pre-emergent herbicides continued. Winter Potatoes: Production for 2007 is forecast at 2.47 million cwt, 14 percent below the January forecast and 45 percent below last year. Florida winter potatoes were combined with their spring potatoes for the 2007 crop. The California production is 21 percent below 2006. Area for harvest in California, at 11,500 acres, is unchanged from January but down 4 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 215 cwt per acre is down 35 cwt from January and 45 cwt below a year ago. Freezing temperatures in January damaged the crop, resulting in lower yield potential. Spring Potatoes: Spring production in 2007 is forecast at 20.8 million cwt, up 5 percent from last year and 11 percent above two years ago. Area for harvest is forecast at 69,800 acres, 3 percent above 2006. The average yield is forecast at 298 cwt per acre, up 5 cwt from a year ago. Spring potato production in Florida is forecast at 7.89 million cwt, up 22 percent from a year ago. Florida's winter potatoes were combined with spring potatoes in 2007. Mild weather during December kept planting on schedule and aided crop development in southern Florida. Dry weather from January to March aided planting progress around the Hastings area and in the northern Peninsula. California's spring potato production forecast, at 6.12 million cwt, is 1 percent above last year. Freezing temperatures in January caused some delays in planting, slowed growth, and caused some crop damage. However, growers rate the overall crop condition better than the 2006 crop. North Carolina's spring potato crop is forecast at 2.90 million cwt, down 11 percent from last year. As of April 1, the crop was rated 85 percent good to excellent and planting was nearing completion. Texas spring potato production is forecast at 2.87 million cwt, virtually unchanged from last season. Producers report good growing conditions with high levels of moisture available. Arizona's production is forecast at 1.05 million cwt, down 10 percent from last year. Summer Potatoes, 2006 Revisions: The final estimate of 2006 summer potato crop production is 18.4 million cwt, down 1 percent from the preliminary estimate in the January Crop Production 2006 Summary but up 4 percent from the 2005 crop. Harvested area covered 54,300 acres, unchanged from the 2006 preliminary estimate but up 6 percent from 2005. The average yield of 338 cwt per acre is down 2 cwt from the 2006 preliminary estimate and 4 cwt below the 2005 crop. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.16 million pounds for March, up 4 percent from February but 2 percent less than March 2006. Area in crop totaled 1,935 acres, down 18 percent from last month and 7 percent less than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 870 acres in March, down 24 percent from February and 51 percent lower than March 2006. Conditions in papaya growing areas were generally favorable during March. Normal field activities were conducted as weather permitted. Reliability of April 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Due to severe weather conditions in California and the Desert Southwest in January, some survey procedures were changed for this season. The grower and packer surveys normally used to set the April forecast were conducted a month earlier than normal and the California Valencia objective measurement survey was discontinued for this season. All citrus estimating States submitted new analyses of current citrus utilization for this report based on additional survey indications and/or administrative data. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These 4 States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.0 percent. However, if you exclude the 6 abnormal production seasons (4 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 1.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.0 percent, or 1.6 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.1 percent, or 2.9 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 192,000 tons (158,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 7,000 tons to 716,000 tons (7,000 tons to 368,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 6 times and above 8 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Jeff Geuder, Chief ..............................................(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head........................................(202) 720-2127 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings...................(202) 720-5944 Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye.................................(202) 720-8068 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed..................(202) 720-9526 Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice..............................(202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds......(202) 720-7369 King Whetstone - Hay, Oats, Sorghum.......................(202) 690-3234 Greg Thessen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops..........(202) 720-2127 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Lance Honig, Head.........................................(202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco....(202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,Strawberries......................(202) 720-2157 Rich Holcomb - Citrus, Tropical Fruits....................(202) 720-5412 Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts..........(202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas...........................(202) 720-3250 Faye Propsom- Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes...............................(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops........................................(360) 902-1940 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes......(202) 720-4285 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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