Cr Pr 2-2 (6-07) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 11, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Winter Wheat Production Down Slightly from May All Orange Production Unchanged Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.61 billion bushels, down slightly from the May 1 forecast but 24 percent above 2006. Based on June 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 43.2 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month but 1.5 bushels more than last year. Grain area totals 37.2 million acres, up fractionally from May 1. Hard Red production is up slightly from a month ago to 1.03 billion bushels. Soft Red is down 2 percent from last month and now totals 341 million bushels. White production totals 237 million bushels, down 1 percent from last month. Of the White production total, 18.9 million bushels are Hard White and 218 million bushels are Soft White. The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2006-07 season is 7.36 million tons, unchanged from the May 1 forecast but 18 percent below last season's final utilization of 9.00 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 131 million boxes (5.88 million tons), is unchanged from last month but 12 percent lower than the utilization from the 2005-06 season's crop. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 65.6 million boxes (2.95 million tons), down 13 percent from last season's final utilization. Harvest of the early, midseason, and navel varieties is complete. Florida's Valencia forecast is 65.0 million boxes (2.93 million tons), unchanged from the May forecast but down 11 percent from last season's final utilization. The row count survey conducted May 30-31 showed that 90 percent of Valencia rows had been harvested. Arizona, California, and Texas orange production forecasts are carried forward from April 1. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield for the 2006-07 season remains at a record high 1.65 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up from the 2005-06 season's yield of 1.63 gallons. Final yield from the early-midseason portion is unchanged from last month at 1.56 gallons, up from 1.53 gallons last season. Valencias are projected to yield a record high 1.78 gallons, unchanged from last month but up from the yield of 1.75 gallons for the 2005-06 crop. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on June 11, 2007. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Keith J. Collins Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Grains & Hay Wheat, by Class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Wheat, Durum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Wheat, Winter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 Sugarcane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Apricots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Cherries, Sweet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Peaches. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Pears. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Prunes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Maple Syrup. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Lemons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Oranges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Tangelos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Tangerines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Temples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops Sweet Potatoes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Hops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 Crop Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 Information Contacts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32 Reliability of Production Data in this Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 Weather Maps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2006 and Forecasted June 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State : : : : 2007 : : : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 :-------------------: 2006 : 2007 : : : : May 1 : Jun 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ------- Bushels ------- --- 1,000 Bushels --- : AR : 305 600 61.0 46.0 42.0 18,605 25,200 CA : 250 300 58.0 70.0 74.0 14,500 22,200 CO : 1,900 2,100 21.0 35.0 37.0 39,900 77,700 DE : 45 55 67.0 73.0 68.0 3,015 3,740 GA : 120 250 49.0 40.0 40.0 5,880 10,000 ID : 710 740 77.0 81.0 81.0 54,670 59,940 IL : 910 810 67.0 55.0 55.0 60,970 44,550 IN : 460 410 69.0 63.0 59.0 31,740 24,190 KS : 9,100 9,500 32.0 38.0 38.0 291,200 361,000 KY : 320 190 71.0 38.0 38.0 22,720 7,220 MD : 125 175 68.0 66.0 66.0 8,500 11,550 MI : 650 650 73.0 71.0 71.0 47,450 46,150 MS : 73 300 59.0 59.0 59.0 4,307 17,700 MO : 910 800 54.0 42.0 42.0 49,140 33,600 MT : 1,920 2,150 43.0 41.0 42.0 82,560 90,300 NE : 1,700 1,850 36.0 41.0 42.0 61,200 77,700 NY : 95 77 61.0 54.0 52.0 5,795 4,004 NC : 420 460 59.0 42.0 38.0 24,780 17,480 OH : 960 760 68.0 64.0 64.0 65,280 48,640 OK : 3,400 4,600 24.0 35.0 33.0 81,600 151,800 OR : 730 740 53.0 60.0 55.0 38,690 40,700 PA : 150 150 59.0 55.0 54.0 8,850 8,100 SC : 123 135 50.0 35.0 30.0 6,150 4,050 SD : 1,150 1,800 36.0 44.0 44.0 41,400 79,200 TN : 190 230 64.0 32.0 32.0 12,160 7,360 TX : 1,400 3,900 24.0 34.0 35.0 33,600 136,500 VA : 155 175 68.0 61.0 61.0 10,540 10,675 WA : 1,800 1,810 66.0 66.0 66.0 118,800 119,460 WI : 230 260 78.0 70.0 65.0 17,940 16,900 : Oth : Sts 1/: 816 1,245 44.3 41.8 41.8 36,139 52,070 : US : 31,117 37,222 41.7 43.5 43.2 1,298,081 1,609,679 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AL, AZ, FL, IA, LA, MN, NV, NJ, NM, ND, UT, WV, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2007 Summary." Durum Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2006 and Forecasted June 1, 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State : : : : 2007 : : : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 :-------------------: 2006 : 2007 : : : : May 1 : Jun 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- 1,000 Bushels : AZ : 74 80 100.0 100.0 100.0 7,400 8,000 CA : 65 90 99.0 95.0 95.0 6,435 8,550 MT : 395 17.0 6,715 ND : 1,260 25.0 31,500 : Oth : Sts 2/: 21 67.9 1,425 : US : 1,815 29.5 53,475 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Area harvested for the U.S. and remaining States will be published in "Acreage" released June 29, 2007. Yield and production will be published in "Crop Production" released July 12, 2007. 2/ Other States include ID and SD. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2007 Summary." Wheat: Production by Class, United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted June 1, 2007 1/ 2/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- : Winter :--------------------------------------------------------- Year : Hard : Soft : Hard : Soft : All : Red : Red : White : White : White ---------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Bushels : 2005 : 929,820 309,021 25,279 235,009 260,288 2006 : 682,079 390,165 13,284 212,553 225,837 2007 :1,031,745 340,525 18,937 218,472 237,409 :------------------------------------------------------------------- : Spring : :---------------------------------------------------------: : Hard : Hard : Soft : All : : Total : Red : White : White : White : Durum : :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Bushels : 2005 : 466,587 4,530 33,339 37,869 101,105 2,104,690 2006 : 432,339 6,226 21,915 28,141 53,475 1,812,036 2007 : -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Wheat class estimates are based on the latest available data including both survey and administrative data. The previous end-of-season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season for States that do not have survey or administrative data available. 2/ Spring wheat production by class and total production will be published in "Crop Production" released July 12, 2007. Sweet Cherries: Total Production by State, and Total, 2005-2006 and Forecasted June 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : CA : 52,700 42,100 92,000 OR : 28,600 50,000 40,000 WA : 137,000 171,000 155,000 : Total : 218,300 263,100 287,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The first production forecast for sweet cherries in ID, MI, NY, and UT and tart cherries in MI, NY, OR, PA, UT, WA, and WI will be published in the "Cherry Production" report released on June 21, 2007. The first estimate for 2007 sweet cherries in MT will be released in January 2008. Peaches: Total Production by Crop, State, and Total, 2005-2006 and Forecasted June 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : CA : All : 869,000 712,000 840,000 Clingstone 1/ : 484,000 359,000 450,000 Freestone : 385,000 353,000 390,000 GA : 40,000 41,000 17,000 SC : 75,000 60,000 8,000 : Total : 984,000 813,000 865,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ CA Clingstone is over-the-scale tonnage and includes culls and cannery diversions. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2004-05, 2005-06 and Forecasted June 1, 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2004-05 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2004-05 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early, Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 240 250 200 9 9 8 CA 4/ : 44,000 47,000 27,000 1,650 1,763 1,013 FL 5/ : 79,100 75,000 65,600 3,560 3,375 2,952 TX 4/ : 1,500 1,400 1,580 64 60 67 US : 124,840 123,650 94,380 5,283 5,207 4,040 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 190 200 150 7 8 6 CA 4/ : 20,500 13,500 10,000 769 506 375 FL : 70,700 72,700 65,000 3,182 3,272 2,925 TX 4/ : 270 200 270 11 9 11 US : 91,660 86,600 75,420 3,969 3,795 3,317 All : AZ 4/ : 430 450 350 16 17 14 CA 4/ : 64,500 60,500 37,000 2,419 2,269 1,388 FL : 149,800 147,700 130,600 6,742 6,647 5,877 TX 4/ : 1,770 1,600 1,850 75 69 78 US : 216,500 210,250 169,800 9,252 9,002 7,357 Temples 5/ : FL : 650 700 29 32 Grapefruit : White : FL : 3,400 6,500 9,300 145 276 395 Colored : FL : 9,400 12,800 17,900 400 544 761 All : AZ 4/ : 140 100 100 5 3 3 CA 4/ : 6,100 6,000 4,800 204 201 161 FL : 12,800 19,300 27,200 545 820 1,156 TX 4/ : 6,600 5,200 6,500 264 208 260 US : 25,640 30,600 38,600 1,018 1,232 1,580 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 400 550 300 15 21 11 CA 4/ 6/ : 2,900 3,600 2,600 109 135 98 FL : 4,450 5,500 4,600 211 261 219 US : 7,750 9,650 7,500 335 417 328 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 2,400 3,800 2,500 91 144 95 CA : 20,500 21,000 16,500 779 798 627 US : 22,900 24,800 19,000 870 942 722 Tangelos : FL : 1,550 1,400 1,250 70 63 56 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5/ Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Bartlett Pears: Total Production by State and Total, 2005-2006 and Forecasted June 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :-------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : CA : 166,000 199,000 210,000 OR : 58,000 60,000 65,000 WA : 167,000 167,000 160,000 : Total : 391,000 426,000 435,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Miscellaneous Fruits, California: Total Production by Crop, 2005-2006 and Forecasted June 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : Prunes (Dried Basis) : 97,000 180,000 95,000 : Apricots : 75,500 39,000 90,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres --------------- 1,000 Pounds : Apr : 2,050 1,930 1,785 860 1,725 2,230 May : 2,025 1,940 1,760 870 1,785 2,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Hops: Area Harvested by Variety, State, and United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted June 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Area Harvested :Strung for Harvest and :-------------------------------------------------------- Variety : 2005 : 2006 1/ : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Acres : ID : Total 2/ : 3,287 2,797 3,106 : OR : Cascade : 62 * * Glacier : 231 - - Golding : 105 117 115 Millenium : 295 293 294 Mt. Hood : 219 161 164 Nugget : 1,363 1,590 1,649 Sterling : 276 123 95 Willamette : 2,273 2,301 2,370 : Other Varieties : 339 451 490 : Total : 5,163 5,036 5,177 : WA : Ahtanum : 50 40 42 Cascade : 1,168 1,116 1,303 Centennial : 112 * * Chelan : 212 505 505 Chinook : 489 365 311 Cluster : 463 352 366 Columbus/Tomahawk R : 2,812 2,772 3,305 Galena : 3,869 3,809 3,061 Glacier : 48 17 21 Golding : 37 53 52 Hallertauer : 48 49 56 Millenium : 1,115 910 732 Mt. Hood : 51 44 44 Nugget : 1,062 1,100 1,093 Sterling : 93 62 * Summit R : * 66 632 Vanguard : * * 64 Willamette : 4,102 4,554 4,562 YCR-4(Palisade R) : 54 54 74 YCR-5(Warrior R) : 584 421 338 Zeus : 3,736 3,982 4,659 : Other Varieties : 908 1,261 1,529 : Total : 21,013 21,532 22,749 : US : 29,463 29,365 31,032 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. 2/ Only State totals are published for Idaho to avoid disclosure of individual operations. * Included in Other Varieties to avoid disclosure of individual operations. - Zero or unknown. R Registered. Sugarbeets: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, Production, Price, and Value by State and United States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested : Yield State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 2/ : 2005 : 2006 2/ : 2005 : 2006 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 Acres --------------- ------ Tons ------ : CA : 44.4 43.3 44.1 43.1 37.1 36.1 CO : 36.4 42.1 34.3 38.0 24.3 23.4 ID : 169.0 188.0 167.0 187.0 27.1 31.7 MI : 154.0 155.0 152.0 154.0 21.3 23.2 MN : 491.0 504.0 460.0 477.0 20.4 24.9 MT : 53.9 53.6 49.9 48.5 22.9 27.0 NE : 48.4 61.3 45.3 57.8 20.4 23.3 ND : 255.0 261.0 243.0 243.0 18.8 26.0 OR : 9.8 13.1 9.7 13.1 32.1 30.1 WA : 1.7 2.0 1.7 2.0 40.6 37.0 WY : 36.2 42.8 35.9 40.1 22.3 19.9 : US : 1,299.8 1,366.2 1,242.9 1,303.6 22.1 26.1 :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production : Price per Ton : Value of Production :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 2/ : 2005 : 2006 3/ : 2005 : 2006 3/ :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Tons --- ---- Dollars ---- 1,000 Dollars : CA : 1,636 1,556 41.80 68,385 CO : 833 889 40.70 33,903 ID : 4,526 5,928 44.40 200,954 MI : 3,238 3,573 34.40 111,387 MN : 9,384 11,877 43.80 411,019 MT : 1,143 1,310 45.30 51,778 NE : 924 1,347 43.10 39,824 ND : 4,568 6,318 49.20 224,746 OR : 311 394 44.40 13,808 WA : 69 74 44.40 3,064 WY : 801 798 42.80 34,283 : US : 27,433 34,064 43.50 1,193,151 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA. 2/ Revised. 3/ Estimates are not available. U.S. marketing year average price, value of production, and parity price will be published in "Agricultural Prices" released July 31, 2007. State estimates will be published in "Crop Values" to be released February 2008. Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, Production, Price, and Value by State and United States, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 2/ : 2005 : 2006 2/ : 2005 : 2006 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ----- Tons ---- --- 1,000 Tons --- : For Sugar : FL : 376.0 382.0 31.4 35.8 11,806 13,676 HI : 21.7 20.4 80.8 79.1 1,753 1,614 LA : 420.0 405.0 22.9 27.3 9,618 11,057 TX : 40.5 39.2 38.3 41.2 1,551 1,615 : US : 858.2 846.6 28.8 33.0 24,728 27,962 : For Seed : FL : 25.0 18.0 37.6 37.2 940 670 HI : 1.8 2.0 34.8 33.3 63 67 LA : 35.0 30.0 22.9 27.3 802 819 TX : 1.9 1.5 38.3 41.0 73 62 : US : 63.7 51.5 29.5 31.4 1,878 1,618 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 401.0 400.0 31.8 35.9 12,746 14,346 HI : 23.5 22.4 77.3 75.0 1,816 1,681 LA : 455.0 435.0 22.9 27.3 10,420 11,876 TX : 42.4 40.7 38.3 41.2 1,624 1,677 : US : 921.9 898.1 28.9 32.9 26,606 29,580 :------------------------------------------------------------------- : For Sugar : For Sugar and Seed :------------------------------------------------------------------- : Price per Ton : Value of Production : Value of Production 3/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 :2006 4/ : 2005 : 2006 4/ : 2005 : 2006 4/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars ------------- 1,000 Dollars ------------- : FL : 28.00 330,568 356,888 HI : 33.60 58,901 61,018 LA : 27.10 260,648 282,382 TX : 33.40 51,803 54,241 : US : 28.40 701,920 754,529 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Yield and production refer to net weight. 2/ Revised. 3/ Price per ton of cane for sugar used in evaluating value of production for seed. 4/ Estimates are not available. U.S. marketing year average price, value of production, and parity price will be published in "Agricultural Prices" released July 31, 2007. State estimates will be published in "Crop Values" to be released February 2008. Maple Syrup: Taps, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number of Taps : Yield per Tap : Production State:-------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Taps ----- ----- Gallons ----- ---- 1,000 Gallons ---- : CT : 63 61 59 0.159 0.164 0.136 10 10 8 ME : 1,300 1,315 1,310 0.204 0.228 0.172 265 300 225 MA : 240 245 230 0.167 0.163 0.130 40 40 30 MI : 390 375 400 0.149 0.208 0.150 58 78 60 NH : 365 355 365 0.156 0.180 0.164 57 64 60 NY : 1,420 1,530 1,470 0.156 0.165 0.152 222 253 224 OH : 355 360 370 0.194 0.217 0.203 69 78 75 PA : 428 449 445 0.143 0.147 0.115 61 66 51 VT : 2,140 2,170 2,170 0.192 0.212 0.207 410 460 450 WI : 400 400 460 0.125 0.250 0.163 50 100 75 : US : 7,101 7,260 7,279 0.175 0.200 0.173 1,242 1,449 1,258 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maple Syrup: Price and Value by State and United States, 2005-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Average Price : Value of : per Gallon : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- Dollars -------- ----- 1,000 Dollars ----- : CT : 50.00 58.20 500 582 ME : 21.50 24.30 5,698 7,290 MA : 51.20 47.90 2,048 1,916 MI : 36.00 37.00 2,088 2,886 NH : 41.30 43.90 2,354 2,810 NY : 31.70 31.70 7,037 8,020 OH : 36.00 34.00 2,484 2,652 PA : 31.50 32.50 1,922 2,145 VT : 27.80 30.20 11,398 13,892 WI : 32.40 31.20 1,620 3,120 : US : 29.90 31.30 37,149 45,313 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Price and value for 2007 will be published in "Crop Production" released June 2008. Maple Syrup: Season by State, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Date Season : Date Season : Average Season : Opened 1/ : Closed 2/ : Length 3/ State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :------------ Date ------------ ---- Days ---- : CT : Feb 2 Jan 15 Feb 5 Apr 15 Apr 14 Apr 24 34 36 29 ME :Feb 14 Jan 20 Feb 20 Apr 29 Apr 26 May 7 23 27 33 MA : Feb 2 Jan 25 Feb 20 Apr 19 Apr 30 May 2 21 28 30 MI : Feb 1 Jan 1 Feb 19 Apr 28 May 2 Apr 23 16 21 20 NH : Feb 1 Jan 30 Feb 15 Apr 23 Apr 29 Apr 24 21 26 32 NY :Jan 27 Jan 14 Jan 5 May 1 Apr 27 May 3 23 27 29 OH : Feb 1 Jan 15 Jan 31 Apr 18 Apr 18 Apr 20 27 28 20 PA :Jan 20 Jan 1 Jan 7 Apr 30 Apr 29 May 1 28 32 22 VT : Feb 4 Jan 15 Feb 15 Apr 30 Apr 30 Apr 30 24 29 31 WI :Feb 12 Feb 20 Feb 15 Apr 21 Apr 29 Apr 29 18 23 26 : US : 24 28 27 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Approximately the first day that sap was collected. 2/ Approximately the last day that sap was collected. 3/ The average number of days that sap was collected. Maple Syrup: Price by Type of Sales and Size of Container by State, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Type : Gallons : 1/2 Gallons : Quarts : Pints : 1/2 Pints and :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars : Retail : CT :39.30 44.00 23.00 25.30 13.30 14.60 8.20 9.10 4.70 5.60 ME :35.00 39.80 19.70 20.20 11.10 11.00 6.80 6.40 4.00 4.50 MA :37.50 38.10 22.10 21.90 13.10 13.30 8.80 9.30 5.50 6.20 MI :34.20 34.10 18.90 18.30 10.30 10.90 6.50 6.50 4.20 4.50 NH :36.60 37.70 21.10 21.20 12.10 12.20 7.30 7.50 4.70 4.90 NY :32.50 32.90 18.80 19.10 11.10 11.40 6.90 7.00 4.40 4.40 OH :31.20 31.50 18.40 19.00 10.70 11.10 6.60 6.70 4.50 4.50 PA :29.30 30.80 18.00 19.00 10.60 11.20 6.10 6.75 4.30 3.65 VT :32.30 34.40 19.60 20.80 11.60 13.00 7.40 8.20 4.90 5.20 WI :30.60 31.60 16.80 17.60 9.10 9.10 5.70 5.80 4.20 4.25 : Wholesale : CT :34.10 35.00 17.00 18.10 10.30 12.80 5.30 8.30 4.00 4.60 ME :30.00 31.30 15.90 15.90 8.50 8.60 4.80 4.90 4.00 3.10 MA :30.10 28.40 16.80 16.00 9.60 10.40 5.50 6.00 3.60 3.80 MI :29.00 26.60 16.40 17.30 8.60 9.10 4.60 5.30 3.50 3.10 NH :30.00 29.70 17.10 17.70 9.90 9.60 5.70 5.70 3.30 3.50 NY :26.50 27.70 16.10 16.30 8.80 8.70 5.20 5.40 3.20 3.60 OH :26.20 25.10 16.50 15.40 8.50 8.90 5.80 5.50 3.80 3.60 PA :27.50 29.00 15.60 16.70 8.60 8.95 4.70 5.20 3.90 3.50 VT :27.60 27.80 16.70 17.20 9.50 9.90 5.40 5.80 3.40 3.60 WI :33.00 32.50 17.10 16.40 9.10 8.85 5.30 5.05 3.00 3.30 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Bulk All Grades : Bulk All Grades : All Sales :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dollars per Pound Dollars per Gallon Equivalent per Gallon : Bulk : CT 2/ : 1.85 20.40 50.00 58.20 ME : 1.90 1.95 20.70 21.50 21.50 24.30 MA : 1.65 1.80 18.10 19.80 51.20 47.90 MI : 1.80 1.80 19.30 20.00 36.00 37.00 NH : 1.60 1.85 17.50 20.40 41.30 43.90 NY : 1.70 1.80 18.90 19.90 31.70 31.70 OH : 2.00 1.85 21.60 20.30 36.00 34.00 PA : 1.60 1.60 17.90 17.40 31.50 32.50 VT : 1.70 1.85 18.70 20.40 27.80 30.20 WI : 1.70 1.80 19.20 19.80 32.40 31.20 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Prices for 2007 will be published in "Crop Production" released June 2008. 2/ Data not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. Maple Syrup: Percent of Sales by Type and State, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Retail : Wholesale : Bulk State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- Percent -- -- Percent -- -- Percent -- : CT : 80 75 10 15 10 10 ME : 2 6 1 2 97 92 MA : 65 55 20 30 15 15 MI : 48 43 28 37 24 20 NH : 65 70 20 15 15 15 NY : 45 40 22 20 33 40 OH : 63 65 17 19 20 16 PA : 56 57 16 20 28 23 VT : 30 30 10 10 60 60 WI : 42 30 23 35 35 35 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sweet Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 1/ : 2005 : 2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : AL : 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.3 CA : 11.7 12.2 11.7 12.2 LA : 18.0 18.0 17.0 13.5 MS : 17.4 18.0 17.3 15.5 NJ : 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 NC : 36.0 40.0 35.0 39.0 SC : 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 TX : 2.7 2.2 2.6 2.1 VA : 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 : US : 91.0 95.2 88.4 86.8 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 1/ : 2005 : 2006 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Cwt ------- ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : AL : 150 160 375 368 CA : 285 305 3,335 3,721 LA : 145 165 2,465 2,228 MS : 180 160 3,114 2,480 NJ : 130 135 156 162 NC : 170 180 5,950 7,020 SC : 160 140 128 84 TX : 65 65 169 137 VA : 125 120 38 48 : US : 178 187 15,730 16,248 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3,452.0 3,703.0 2,951.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 78,327.0 90,454.0 70,648.0 Corn for Silage : 6,477.0 Hay, All : 60,807.0 63,056.0 Alfalfa : 21,384.0 All Other : 39,423.0 Oats : 4,168.0 4,029.0 1,576.0 Proso Millet : 580.0 475.0 Rice : 2,838.0 2,644.0 2,821.0 Rye : 1,396.0 274.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 6,522.0 7,109.0 4,937.0 Sorghum for Silage : 347.0 Wheat, All : 57,344.0 60,303.0 46,810.0 Winter : 40,575.0 44,505.0 31,117.0 37,222.0 Durum : 1,870.0 1,990.0 1,815.0 Other Spring : 14,899.0 13,808.0 13,878.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,044.0 1,168.0 1,021.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 813.0 390.0 767.0 Mustard Seed : 40.5 39.2 Peanuts : 1,243.0 1,197.0 1,209.0 Rapeseed : 1.4 1.0 Safflower : 189.0 179.0 Soybeans for Beans : 75,522.0 67,140.0 74,602.0 Sunflower : 1,950.0 1,799.0 1,770.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 15,274.0 12,147.0 12,731.5 Upland : 14,948.0 11,855.0 12,408.0 Amer-Pima : 326.0 292.0 323.5 Sugarbeets : 1,366.2 1,294.7 1,303.6 Sugarcane : 898.1 Tobacco : 338.9 344.2 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 46.0 37.0 22.5 Dry Edible Beans : 1,629.8 1,504.5 1,537.6 Dry Edible Peas : 925.5 902.0 884.1 Lentils : 429.0 340.0 407.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 Hops : 29.4 31.0 Peppermint Oil : 79.2 Potatoes, All : 1,134.7 1,115.5 Winter : 17.7 11.5 17.5 11.5 Spring : 70.7 73.0 67.5 70.4 Summer : 58.4 54.3 Fall : 987.9 976.2 Spearmint Oil : 18.5 Sweet Potatoes : 95.2 92.9 86.8 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 61.0 180,051 Corn for Grain :" : 149.1 10,534,868 Corn for Silage :Tons : 16.2 104,849 Hay, All :" : 2.33 141,666 Alfalfa :" : 3.35 71,666 All Other :" : 1.78 70,000 Oats :Bu : 59.5 93,764 Proso Millet :" : 21.5 10,195 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 6,868 193,736 Rye :Bu : 26.3 7,193 Sorghum for Grain :" : 56.2 277,538 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 13.4 4,642 Wheat, All :Bu : 38.7 1,812,036 Winter :" : 41.7 43.2 1,298,081 1,609,679 Durum :" : 29.5 53,475 Other Spring :" : 33.2 460,480 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,366 1,394,332 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 7,347.9 Flaxseed :Bu : 14.4 11,019 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 720 28,220 Peanuts :" : 2,874 3,474,450 Rapeseed :" : 1,100 1,100 Safflower :" : 1,069 191,405 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 42.7 3,188,247 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,211 2,143,613 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 814 21,587.8 Upland 2/ :" : 806 20,822.4 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,136 765.4 Sugarbeets :Tons : 26.1 34,064 Sugarcane :" : 32.9 29,580 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,144 726,644 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,151 259 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,577 24,247 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,493 13,203 Lentils 2/ :" : 797 3,244 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 590 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,160 7,300 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 43,000 4,300 Hops :" : 1,964 57,686.7 Peppermint Oil :" : 92 7,248 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 390 434,589 Winter :" : 257 215 4,495 2,473 Spring :" : 293 294 19,766 20,668 Summer :" : 338 18,350 Fall :" : 402 391,978 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 110 2,038 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 187 16,248 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :-------------------------------------------- : : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Tons : 1,018 1,232 1,580 Lemons : " : 870 942 722 Oranges 3/ : " : 9,252 9,002 7,357 Tangelos (FL) : " : 70 63 56 Tangerines : " : 335 417 328 Temples (FL) 3/ : " : 29 32 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : 1,000 Lbs: 9,719.9 10,072.1 Apricots : Tons : 81.7 44.7 Bananas (HI) : Lbs : 20,900.0 20,000.0 Grapes : Tons : 7,813.7 6,346.3 Olives (CA) : " : 142.0 23.5 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 32,900.0 28,700.0 Peaches : Tons : 1,184.6 1,010.1 Pears : " : 823.3 841.0 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 97.0 180.0 95.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA): " : 9.1 21.3 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) : Lbs : 915,000 1,115,000 1,310,000 Hazelnuts (OR) : Tons : 27.6 41.0 Pecans : Lbs : 280,250 188,900 Walnuts (CA) : Tons : 355.0 350.0 Maple Syrup : Gals : 1,242 1,449 1,258 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2/ Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,396,990 1,498,570 1,194,240 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,698,150 36,605,830 28,590,540 Corn for Silage : 2,621,180 Hay, All 3/ : 24,607,980 25,518,130 Alfalfa : 8,653,890 All Other : 15,954,090 Oats : 1,686,750 1,630,500 637,790 Proso Millet : 234,720 192,230 Rice : 1,148,510 1,070,000 1,141,630 Rye : 564,950 110,890 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 2,639,390 2,876,940 1,997,950 Sorghum for Silage : 140,430 Wheat, All 3/ :23,206,540 24,404,020 18,943,540 Winter :16,420,300 18,010,730 12,592,740 15,063,370 Durum : 756,770 805,330 734,510 Other Spring : 6,029,480 5,587,960 5,616,290 : Oilseeds : Canola : 422,500 472,680 413,190 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 329,010 157,830 310,400 Mustard Seed : 16,390 15,860 Peanuts : 503,030 484,410 489,270 Rapeseed : 570 400 Safflower : 76,490 72,440 Soybeans for Beans :30,563,000 27,170,890 30,190,680 Sunflower : 789,150 728,040 716,300 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 6,181,240 4,915,770 5,152,310 Upland : 6,049,310 4,797,600 5,021,390 Amer-Pima : 131,930 118,170 130,920 Sugarbeets : 552,890 523,950 527,550 Sugarcane : 363,450 Tobacco : 137,150 139,280 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 18,620 14,970 9,110 Dry Edible Beans : 659,560 608,860 622,250 Dry Edible Peas : 374,540 365,030 357,790 Lentils : 173,610 137,590 164,710 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 Ginger Root (HI) : 40 Hops : 11,880 12,560 Peppermint Oil : 32,050 Potatoes, All 3/ : 459,200 451,430 Winter : 7,160 4,650 7,080 4,650 Spring : 28,610 29,540 27,320 28,490 Summer : 23,630 21,970 Fall : 399,790 395,060 Spearmint Oil : 7,490 Sweet Potatoes : 38,530 37,600 35,130 Taro (HI) 5/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.28 3,920,150 Corn for Grain : 9.36 267,597,970 Corn for Silage : 36.29 95,117,410 Hay, All 2/ : 5.22 128,517,230 Alfalfa : 7.51 65,014,300 All Other : 3.98 63,502,930 Oats : 2.13 1,360,980 Proso Millet : 1.20 231,220 Rice : 7.70 8,787,720 Rye : 1.65 182,710 Sorghum for Grain : 3.53 7,049,790 Sorghum for Silage : 29.99 4,211,150 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.60 49,315,540 Winter : 2.81 2.91 35,327,980 43,808,280 Durum : 1.98 1,455,350 Other Spring : 2.23 12,532,210 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.53 632,460 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,665,900 Flaxseed : 0.90 279,900 Mustard Seed : 0.81 12,800 Peanuts : 3.22 1,575,980 Rapeseed : 1.23 500 Safflower : 1.20 86,820 Soybeans for Beans : 2.87 86,769,860 Sunflower : 1.36 972,330 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.91 4,700,190 Upland : 0.90 4,533,540 Amer-Pima : 1.27 166,650 Sugarbeets : 58.58 30,902,340 Sugarcane : 73.83 26,834,520 Tobacco : 2.40 329,600 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.29 11,750 Dry Edible Beans : 1.77 1,099,830 Dry Edible Peas : 1.67 598,880 Lentils : 0.89 147,150 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 26,760 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.30 3,310 Ginger Root (HI) : 48.20 1,950 Hops : 2.20 26,170 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,290 Potatoes, All 2/ : 43.67 19,712,630 Winter : 28.79 24.10 203,890 112,170 Spring : 32.82 32.91 896,570 937,480 Summer : 37.88 832,340 Fall : 45.01 17,779,820 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 920 Sweet Potatoes : 20.98 737,000 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,040 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2005-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 923,510 1,117,650 1,433,350 Lemons : 789,250 854,570 654,990 Oranges 3/ : 8,393,270 8,166,480 6,674,160 Tangelos (FL) : 63,500 57,150 50,800 Tangerines : 303,910 378,300 297,560 Temples (FL) 3/ : 26,310 29,030 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,408,870 4,568,630 Apricots : 74,070 40,530 Bananas (HI) : 9,480 9,070 Grapes : 7,088,470 5,757,220 Olives (CA) : 128,820 21,320 Papayas (HI) : 14,920 13,020 Peaches : 1,074,610 916,370 Pears : 746,900 762,970 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 88,000 163,290 86,180 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 8,260 19,320 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 415,040 505,760 594,210 Hazelnuts (OR) : 25,040 37,190 Pecans : 127,120 85,680 Walnuts (CA) : 322,050 317,510 Maple Syrup : 6,210 7,240 6,290 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2006-07 season. 2/ Production years are 2004-05, 2005-06, and 2006-07. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. May Weather Summary Wet weather across the central one-third of the Nation contrasted with drier-than-normal conditions in the East and West. In fact, record or near-record May wetness was observed in several locations from Texas to the Dakotas, maintaining abundant to locally excessive moisture reserves for pastures, filling winter wheat, and emerging summer crops. However, locally heavy downpours also caused local flooding and fieldwork delays. Specifically, rain on the central and southern Plains hampered initial winter wheat harvesting and threatened the quality of maturing wheat. The Plains' wetness also slowed cotton, sorghum, and soybean planting. Meanwhile, generally wet weather in the western Corn Belt contrasted with below-normal rainfall in most Midwestern areas from the Mississippi Valley eastward. Although monthly rainfall totals of 1 inch or less in parts of the Ohio Valley represented near-record short-term dryness, stress on pastures and summer crops only gradually increased due to generally adequate subsoil moisture reserves. Farther south, however, drought intensified in most areas from the Delta to the southern Atlantic Coast. The Southeastern drought hampered wildfire containment efforts, boosted irrigation demands, and maintained severe stress on pastures and rain-fed summer crops. Late-month showers provided much-needed moisture across southern Florida but largely bypassed the remainder of the Southeast. More significant rain, associated with the passage of Tropical Storm Barry, fell across the southern Atlantic region in early June. Elsewhere, New Mexico experienced wet weather, but warm, mostly dry conditions across the remainder of the West promoted fieldwork and crop development. Scattered late-month showers aided pastures and small grains in the Northwest. Due to largely disappointing cold-season snowfall and unusual spring warmth, much of the West continued to brace for below-normal summer runoff. In addition, May reservoir storage was already below-average for this time of year in Arizona, Montana, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming. May Agricultural Summary Above normal temperatures in the West, Corn Belt, Ohio Valley, and portions of the Great Plains, contrasted with below normal temperatures in the southern Rocky Mountains, the southern Great Plains, the Gulf Coast, and the southern Atlantic Coastal Plains. Emergence and development of summer crops progressed well under mostly favorable conditions in the Corn Belt and Ohio Valley. Although precipitation totals were below normal in the Ohio Valley during May, stress on pastures and summer crops was only gradually increasing. On the Great Plains, wet conditions maintained abundant to locally excessive soil moisture for winter wheat and summer crops. However, extended showers and thunderstorms producing rainfall of up to 14 inches in some areas, caused delays in planting and other fieldwork from Texas to the eastern Dakotas. Elsewhere, hot, dry conditions prevailed in the Southeast, stressing pastures and rain-fed summer crops and maintained heavy irrigation demands. Lack of soil moisture delayed planting and slowed crop development. On May 6, corn planting was 14 percentage points behind last year and 10 points behind the normal pace, as wet weather slowed fieldwork. However, warm, and drier weather allowed rapid progress across most of the Nation's growing area, where planting advanced to 97 percent by month's end, ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Emergence also progressed ahead of the normal pace, reaching 85 percent on May 27, compared with 82 percent last year and 75 percent for the 5-year average. In Illinois, Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, and Texas, 90 percent or more of the crop was emerged. At month's end, 78 percent of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition, compared with 70 percent good or excellent last year. Sorghum producers had seeded 46 percent of their acreage by May 27, compared with 52 percent last year and 48 percent for the 5-year average. Planting lagged well behind due to wet conditions in Kansas, advancing to 24 percent complete by month's end, 9 points behind last year and 12 points behind the normal pace. However, planting was most advanced in the Mississippi Delta, at 99 percent complete in Louisiana and complete in Arkansas, both ahead of normal. Planting was also ahead of normal in Texas despite the heavy rainfall during the month. Elsewhere, dry, warm conditions allowed growers in Illinois and Nebraska to progress well ahead of normal. Oat seeding lagged behind at the beginning of May, but by May 20, ninety-eight percent of the acreage had been planted, ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Planting was near completion in all States, and ahead of the normal pace in all States, except South Dakota. Emergence of the crop also advanced ahead of the 5-year average pace. By month's end 95 percent of the crop was emerged, the same as last year but 4 points ahead of the normal pace. The crop was completely emerged in Nebraska, Ohio, and Texas and at or ahead of the normal pace in all States, except Pennsylvania. Barley planting progressed ahead of normal throughout May. Ninety-five percent of the acreage had been seeded by May 20, seven points ahead of last year and 10 points ahead of normal. All States were ahead of normal and planting was complete in Washington. Likewise, emergence of the crop was ahead of normal, reaching 86 percent by month's end, 9 percentage points ahead of last year and 12 points ahead of the 5-year average. Winter wheat heading began the month behind the normal pace but advanced ahead of normal by month's end. On May 27, eighty percent of the crop was at or beyond the heading stage, 1 point ahead of last year and 3 points ahead of the 5-year average. Heading was complete in Arkansas, California, North Carolina, and Oklahoma, but had not yet begun in Montana by month's end. May showers maintained abundant to locally excessive soil moisture throughout the Great Plains for filling winter wheat. Although the April 7-8 freeze slowed crop development in Kansas and Missouri, more favorable conditions in May allowed the crop to develop at or ahead of normal in both States. Meanwhile, the overall condition of the crop remained the same throughout the month. Spring wheat producers trailed behind the normal planting pace early in the month, but accelerated during the month to surpass the normal pace. With two weeks left in May, 95 percent of the crop had been sown, 6 points ahead of last year and 9 points ahead of the 5-year average. Planting was at or ahead of normal in all major producing States. Similarly, emergence began the month behind normal but progressed rapidly during the month. On May 27, eighty-nine percent of the crop had emerged, compared with 80 percent last year and 76 percent for 5-year average. Emergence was ahead of normal in all States by month's end, except South Dakota, where the crop trailed 1 point behind the normal pace. Rice planting was at 98 percent complete by month's end, 6 points ahead of last year and 4 points ahead of the normal pace. Planting was complete or nearly complete in all States, and was ahead of the normal pace in all States, except Texas. On May 27, ninety-two percent of the crop had emerged, compared with 83 percent last year and 84 percent for the 5-year average. Emergence advanced by 13 points in the final week of the month, and all States were ahead of normal, except Texas. Eighty percent of the soybean crop was planted by May 27, ahead of last year's pace by 5 percentage points and 13 points ahead of the normal pace. With corn planting nearing completion, many growers were able to take advantage of the warm and drier conditions in May and concentrate on planting soybeans. All States, except Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, and South Dakota, were ahead of their normal planting pace. Meanwhile, emergence was 6 percent complete on May 13, two points behind normal, but advanced to 48 percent complete, 13 points ahead of normal, by the end of the month. Sunflower seeding was 41 percent complete on May 27, one point behind last year but 9 points ahead of the 5-year average. Planting was most advanced in North Dakota, at 61 percent complete, where favorable weather conditions promoted planting activities. Elsewhere, heavy rainfall hampered fieldwork in Kansas, where progress was 18 points behind last year and 16 points behind the normal pace. Peanut growers planted 63 percent of their intended acreage by the end of the month, 10 points behind last year and 16 points behind the 5-year average. In the Southeast, drought conditions hampered fieldwork where seeding lagged behind the normal pace by 26 points in Georgia, 20 points in Florida, 10 points in South Carolina, and 6 points in Alabama. Seventy-four percent of the cotton crop had been planted by month's end, 8 points behind last year and 5 points behind the normal pace. Excessive soil moisture in the central and southern Great Plains and a lack of soil moisture in the Southeast hindered cotton planting during May. Progress was 15 points or more behind the normal pace in Oklahoma, Georgia, and Kansas. Elsewhere, planting was complete in Arkansas, California, and Missouri. By May 27, squaring was underway on 5 percent of the acreage nationwide, 1 point behind normal. Sugarbeet planting advanced to 97 percent complete by May 13, compared with 78 percent last year and 89 percent for the 5-year average. Planting was complete or near completion, and was at or ahead of normal in all States, except Michigan. In the Red River Valley planting was well ahead of normal due to near ideal weather. Winter Wheat: Production is forecast at 1.61 billion bushels, down less than one percent from the May 1 forecast but up 24 percent from 2006. Based on June 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 43.2 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from the previous forecast, but up 1.5 bushels from last year. Grain area totals 37.2 million acres, up fractionally from last month. As of May 27, heading had reached 80 percent in the 18 major States, 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Progress was slightly behind normal during the first part of the month due primarily to below normal temperatures, but was ahead of normal by the end of the month. Harvest was underway in the southern-most portions of the growing area. Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the 6 Hard Red Winter States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are above last year's level in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas but below in Montana and Nebraska. Condition ratings improved during May in Montana and Texas while the other States showed little change. Harvest was just getting started in Texas and Oklahoma due to delays from wet weather. In Colorado, scattered hail has caused some damage but the beneficial moisture surrounding these storms has been positive. Wet conditions in Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma have increased disease pressure while Montana enjoyed normal precipitation across the State in May. Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the 3 Soft Red Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio) are above last year's level in Missouri and Ohio but below in Illinois. Condition ratings improved in all three States during May. In Missouri, fields are recovering better than originally expected from freeze and flood damage incurred in April and May. Ohio's crop progress was well ahead of the usual pace, and the majority of the acreage is in fair to good condition. In the Pacific Northwest States (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington), yields are unchanged from last month in Washington and Idaho but down in Oregon. Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in Washington are slightly above last year. Condition ratings declined in Washington and Oregon due to dry weather and warm temperatures in May. Crop progress was ahead of the normal pace for all three States at the end of May. Durum Wheat: Production of Durum wheat in Arizona and California is forecast at a collective 16.6 million bushels, unchanged from May 1 but 20 percent above their 2006 total of 13.8 million bushels. Durum wheat in California is progressing normally, with no quality or disease problems. The harvest in Arizona is progressing well. Peaches: The 2007 peach crop in California, Georgia, and South Carolina is forecast at 865,000 tons, up 6 percent from 2006 but 12 percent below two years ago. The California Clingstone crop is forecast at 450,000 tons, equal to the May 1 forecast but 25 percent above 2006. California experienced an adequate number of chilling hours which benefitted the Clingstone crop. Overall, the bloom was reported to be good on all varieties. Thinning is progressing slowly due to labor shortages and heavy fruit sets. Fruit size appears to be small at this point, but the fruit looks very clean. Harvest is expected to begin in Kingsburg the week of June 10, about a week earlier than last year. The California Freestone crop is forecast at 390,000 tons, equal to the May 1 forecast but 10 percent above the 2006 crop. The crop was reported to be of excellent quality with good sizes. The bloom period was fairly quick with above average temperatures and no rain. Harvest continued during May with Super Rich, Snow Angel, and Spring Snow the major varieties picked. The South Carolina crop is forecast at 8,000 tons, down 87 percent from last year and 89 percent below the 2005 crop. A severe post bloom freeze in early April destroyed much of the peach crop. Many growers reported no peaches for harvest this season. Damage was reported across the entire State, with equally severe losses reported in both of the primary growing areas. Georgia's peach crop is forecast at 17,000 tons, down 59 percent from last year's crop and 58 percent below 2005. Freezing temperatures on April 7 and 8 severely damaged the crop, while dry spring conditions reduced fruit size. However, quality of harvested fruit has been excellent. Bartlett Pears: Production of Bartlett Pears in California, Oregon, and Washington is forecast at 435,000 tons, up 2 percent from last year and 11 percent above 2005. Production in California is forecast at 210,000 tons, up 6 percent from last season and 27 percent above 2 years ago. Weather conditions were nearly ideal during the blooming period. Farmers in all pear tree growing districts reported full trees with evenly ripening fruit. Harvest is expected to begin around the middle of July. Oregon growers expect to harvest 65,000 tons, up 8 percent from last year and 12 percent above the 2005 Bartlett crop. Overall growing conditions have been favorable for pear growth and development. Bloom came and went without many problems. Reporters indicated they expect Bartlett production along the Washington border and in southern Oregon to be better than in recent years. Washington's Bartlett crop is forecast at 160,000 tons, down 4 percent from both the 2006 and 2005 seasons. The crop size was somewhat moderated by a cool spring. April frosts and poor pollination hindered some orchards. However, a good snowpack should provide adequate irrigation water throughout the season. Sweet Cherries: The 2007 sweet cherry production for California, Oregon, and Washington is forecast at 287,000 tons, up 9 percent from 2006 and 31 percent above 2005. Washington's production is forecast at 155,000 tons, down 9 percent from the previous year. Washington's cherry crop experienced a relatively cool spring in the Yakima area with some damaging frost in low-lying areas of the Lower Yakima Valley, Tri-Cities, and Columbia Basin. Overall fruit quality is expected to be very good. The California crop, at 92,000 tons, is up 119 percent from 2006 and 75 percent above 2005. Clear spring weather and above normal temperatures during bloom benefitted pollination, increasing fruit set. Harvest of Brooks and Tulare varieties began in early May. Oregon production is forecast at 40,000 tons, down 20 percent from 2006 but up 40 percent from 2005. Frost damage in March and cool temperatures during bloom decreased fruit set in parts of Oregon. Prunes (Dried Plums): California's 2007 prune production forecast is 95,000 dried tons, down 47 percent from last year's crop of 180,000 tons and 2 percent below the 2005 crop. The 2007 prune crop experienced an extremely warm period during bloom. The bloom time was one of the shortest in recent years, with several reports of dry weather conditions during bloom hampering bee pollination activities. As a result of poor pollination, fruit set was depressed. Production was also hindered due to stressed orchards recovering from the previous year's high production. Apricots: California's 2007 production forecast is 90,000 tons, up 131 percent from the 2006 crop and 19 percent more than 2005. After a greatly reduced crop last year, the production of California apricots has rebounded. Bloom was reported as good with little rain damage. Fruit set and quality were also reported to be good. Harvest began in April and continued throughout May with Poppy, Earlicot, Castlebrite, Katy, Primacot, Judy's Delight, and Red Velvet as the primary varieties being harvested. Florida Citrus: Rainfall during the month was sparse with only localized showers reported. Surface water levels are at or near record lows. Lake Okeechobee reached a record low level during the month. Growers continued to irrigate as much as possible to maintain tree vigor and condition. Water restrictions were in place in many areas. Temperatures were at near normal levels with mornings in the 60s and 70s and afternoons reaching the high 80s. Trees were generally reported to be in good to fair condition although trees in non-irrigated groves were showing signs of stress. Valencia harvest reached a level of over five million boxes per week, with quality improving throughout the month. Some processing plants closed in late May and sent their remaining fruit to other plants. Grapefruit harvest declined weekly as exports ended. Processing grapefruit usage declined rapidly and by the end of the month was less than one hundred thousand boxes per week. Honey tangerine harvest finished mid-month. Caretaker programs consisted of hedging, topping, and applying post bloom nutritional sprays. Resetting took place where trees were available. In addition to normal maintenance programs, growers scouted for citrus greening and removed infected trees. California Citrus: Harvest of oranges, tangerines, mandarins, grapefruit, and lemons continued throughout the month of May. Navel orange harvest was nearly complete by month's end while Valencia harvest volumes were increasing. Bloom was finished by the end of the month. Many growers treated groves to control fungus and weeds as well as applied foliar nutrients. Pruning of frost damaged limbs and trees continued. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Grape vineyard operators thinned grape shoots and leaves during May. Thompson Seedless grapes in the Central Valley began blooming the second week of the month. Table grape harvest began in the Coachella Valley in early May for Black Beauty Seedless, Flame Seedless, Perlette, and White Seedless varieties. Vineyards across the State continued to be fertilized, irrigated, and sprayed to control weeds, diseases, and insects. Fruit thinning continued in apple, pear, and quince orchards. Apple orchards were sprayed to control insects. Stone fruit orchards were irrigated, fertilized, and treated with herbicides. Harvest was underway for Poppy, Earlicot, Castlebrite, Katy, Primacot, Judy's Delight, and Red Velvet apricots. Cherry varieties harvested during May included Brooks, Rainier, and Tulare. Harvest of Crimson Lady, Early Saturn, Saturn, Spring Snow, May Sweet, Queencrest, Snow Angel, Spring Flame, Sugartime, and Super Rich peaches as well as Earligold, Mayfire, Spring Flare, Red Jewel, and Zee Fire nectarines was underway. Harvest of Flavorosa pluots began the last week of the month. Plum harvest also began during May for the Red Beaut and Black Ice varieties. Pomegranates and olives were blooming. Kiwifruit vines were treated to control weeds and insects. Strawberry and blueberry harvests continued. Almond orchards were sprayed for weeds and mites, and walnut groves were sprayed to control blight. Cultural activities in nut orchards included fertilization and irrigation. Almond and pistachio crops were reported to be progressing well. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2006-07 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.58 million tons, up less than 1 percent from the May 1 forecast and 28 percent higher than last season's final utilization of 1.23 million tons. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 27.2 million boxes (1.16 million tons), up less than 1 percent from last month and 41 percent above last season's hurricane-reduced final utilization of 19.3 million boxes (820,000 tons). The all white grapefruit forecast is 9.30 million boxes (395,000 tons), down 2 percent from May but 43 percent above last season's final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 17.9 million boxes (761,000 tons), is up 2 percent from last month and 40 percent above last season's utilization. The row count survey conducted May 30-31 showed fewer than 2 percent of the white grapefruit rows remained to be harvested while almost 5 percent of the colored grapefruit rows remained unharvested. Arizona, California, and Texas forecasts are carried forward from April. Tangerines: The 2006-07 U.S. tangerine forecast is 328,000 tons, unchanged from the May forecast but 21 percent lower than last season's final utilization of 417,000 tons. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.60 million boxes (219,000 tons), unchanged from the May forecast but 16 percent lower than last season's utilization of 5.50 million boxes. This season's tangerine harvest is complete in Florida. Arizona and California tangerine forecasts are carried forward from April. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.25 million boxes (56,000 tons), unchanged from the May 1 forecast but down 11 percent from last season's final utilized production. Tangelo harvest is complete with 66 percent of this season's crop being processed. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.10 million pounds for May, down 6 percent from April but 18 percent more than May 2006. Area in crop totaled 1,940 acres, 1 percent higher than last month but 4 percent less than a year ago. Harvested area totaled 870 acres in May, up 1 percent from April but 51 percent lower than May 2006. Conditions in papaya growing areas were generally sunny and dry during May. Orchards benefitted from warm temperatures and longer day lengths. Trees in irrigated orchards made good progress while those without irrigation experienced slower growth and fruit development. The drier weather reduced fungal outbreaks but insects, Papaya Ringspot Virus, and wild pigs remained concerns for some growers. Hops: Area strung for harvest in 2007 for Washington, Oregon, and Idaho is forecast at 31,032 acres, 6 percent more than the 2006 crop of 29,365 acres, and 5 percent more than the 2005 crop of 29,463 acres. Washington accounts for 73 percent of the U.S. total with 22,749 acres for harvest, 1,217 acres more than a year ago. Oregon hop growers plan to string 5,177 acres, or 17 percent of the U.S. total for 2007, with Idaho hop growers accounting for the remaining 10 percent, or 3,106 acres strung for harvest. Compared with a year ago, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho acreage increased, 6 percent, 3 percent, and 11 percent, respectively. In general, hops are one-third to half way to the wire, slightly ahead of normal due to early warm weather. Water supplies are expected to be adequate this season as there was ample snowfall during the winter. No serious disease concerns were reported and growers are expecting a good crop. Sugarbeets: Production for the 2006 crop year is revised to a record high 34.1 million tons, 1 percent above the January end-of-season estimate and 24 percent higher than 2005. Area harvested totaled 1.30 million acres, 500 fewer acres than the January estimate, but 5 percent greater than the previous year. The revised yield, at 26.1 tons per acre, is the highest on record, up 0.2 ton from January and 4.0 tons higher than the yield in 2005. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed for the 2006 crop year is revised to 29.6 million tons, down 1 percent from the March 1 estimate but 11 percent above 2005. Area harvested for sugar and seed during the 2006 crop year totaled 898,100 acres, down 1 percent from the March estimate and down 3 percent from 2005. Yield is estimated at 32.9 tons per acre, 0.1 ton higher than the March estimate and 4.0 tons greater than the 2005 crop. Total production of cane for sugar and seed increased from the previous year in all States, except Hawaii. Area harvested for sugar decreased 11,600 acres and area harvested for seed was down 12,200 acres from 2005. Yield per acre for sugarcane for sugar increased 4.2 tons per acre from the previous year, resulting in an overall increase of 13 percent in sugarcane for sugar production from 2005. Sugarcane for seed yield increased 1.9 tons per acre from the previous year. This increase was not enough to offset the decrease in harvested acres, resulting in a 14 percent decrease in sugarcane for seed production from 2005. Sweet Potatoes: Production for the 2006 crop year is revised to 16.2 million cwt, down 1 percent from the January Crop Production 2006 Summary but up 3 percent from 2005. Area harvested, at 86,800 acres, is down less than 1 percent from January and 2 percent from 2005. The average yield, at 187 cwt per acre, is a record high yield, down 2 cwt from the January estimate but 9 cwt above 2005. Production in California, at 3.72 million cwt, is down 2 percent from January based on a 2 percent decrease in harvested acres. South Carolina production decreased 25 percent due to reduced acres and a 20 cwt drop in yield. Production is down 35 percent from January in Texas, where drought conditions during the 2006 growing season resulted in lower yields than previously expected. Maple Syrup: The 2007 U.S. maple syrup production totaled 1.26 million gallons, down 13 percent from 2006. The number of taps is estimated at 7.28 million, up less than 1 percent from the 2006 total of 7.26 million, while the yield per tap is estimated to be 0.173 gallons, down 14 percent from the previous season. Vermont led all States in production with 450,000 gallons, a decrease of 2 percent from 2006. Production in Maine, at 225,000 gallons, decreased 25 percent from last season. Production in New York, at 224,000 gallons, is 11 percent below 2006. Production was down 25 percent in Massachusetts and Wisconsin, 23 percent in Michigan and Pennsylvania, 20 percent in Connecticut, 6 percent in New Hampshire, and 4 percent in Ohio. Decreased yields were the largest contributing factor to the decrease in production. Temperatures were not favorable for sap flow in 2007 except in Ohio where the majority of producers reported favorable weather. Producers in New England experienced conditions that were mostly too cold for sap flow. The remaining States, Michigan, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, experienced weather that was mostly too warm for sap flow. However, there were some extremely cold spells in many of these States that also hindered sap flow. On average, the season lasted 27 days compared with 28 days last year. New York reported the earliest season opening date of January 5. Maine reported the latest sap flow in 2007 with an approximate season ending date of May 7. Sugar content of the sap for 2007 was down from the previous year. On average, approximately 45 gallons of sap were required to produce one gallon of syrup. This compares with 44 gallons in 2006 and 40 gallons in 2005. The majority of the syrup produced in each State this year was medium to dark in color, except in Maine where most was reported to be light in color. The 2006 U.S. average price per gallon was $31.30, up $1.40 from the 2005 price of $29.90. The U.S. value of production, at $45.3 million for 2006, was up 22 percent from 2005. Value of production increased in all States except Massachusetts. Reliability of June 1 Crop Production Forecast Wheat Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between May 22 and June 6 to gather information on expected yield as of June 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in 10 States that accounted for 68 percent of the 2006 winter wheat production. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's maturity. Counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that will be harvested. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the heads are clipped, threshed, and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet and personal interviewers. Approximately 6,500 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about the probable yield on their operation. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields. Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the June 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components, are used to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Wheat Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Field Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published June 1 forecasts. Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published June 1 forecast. The June 1 orange production forecasts for Arizona, California, and Texas are carried forward from April. Revision Policy: The June 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season wheat estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the wheat marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the June 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the June 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the June 1 winter wheat production forecast is 5.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current winter wheat production will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 5.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 9.1 percent. Differences between the June 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 69 million bushels, ranging from 8 million to 242 million bushels. The June 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times. This does not imply that the June 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the June 1 orange production forecast is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 1.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent. Changes between the June 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 114,000 tons, ranging from 5,000 tons to 368,000 tons. The June 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times. The difference does not imply that the June 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Jeff Geuder, Chief .(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head(202) 720-2127 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings(202) 720-5944 Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye(202) 720-8068 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed(202) 720-9526 Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice(202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds(202) 720-7369 King Whetstone - Hay, Oats, Sorghum(202) 690-3234 Greg Thessen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops(202) 720-2127 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Lance Honig, Head(202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco(202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries(202) 720-2157 Rich Holcomb - Citrus, Tropical Fruits(202) 720-5412 Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts(202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas(202) 720-3250 Faye Propsom- Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops(360) 902-1940 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes(202) 720-4285 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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