Cr Pr 2-2 (10-07) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 12, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Corn Production Up Slightly from September Soybean Production Down Less Than 1 Percent Cotton Production Up 2 Percent Orange Production Up 29 Percent from Last Season Corn production is forecast at 13.3 billion bushels, up slightly from last month and 26 percent above 2006. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 154.7 bushels per acre, down 1.1 bushels from September but 5.6 bushels above last year. If realized, this would be the second highest yield on record, behind the 160.4 bushel yield in 2004. Production would be the largest on record as growers expect to harvest the most corn acres for grain since 1933. Forecast yields are higher than last year across the Great Plains, central Corn Belt and Delta where adequate rainfall during much of the season provided favorable growing conditions. Expected yields across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic States are down from last year as drought conditions during much of the growing season reduced soil moisture levels and stressed the crop. Soybean production is forecast at 2.60 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the September forecast and down 19 percent from last year's record high. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.4 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month but down 1.3 bushels from last year. Compared with last month, yields are forecast lower in Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and most of the Atlantic Coast States. Hot, dry conditions continued to cause most of the decline, especially in Delaware, Illinois, Kentucky, Virginia, and the Carolinas, all down at least 2 bushels from last month. Yields increased from the September 1 forecast in Iowa, Ohio, New York, the Dakotas, and most of the Gulf Coast States. All Cotton production is forecast at 18.2 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from last month but down 16 percent from last year's 21.6 million bales. Yield is expected to average 826 pounds per harvested acre, up 15 pounds from last month and up 12 pounds from 2006. If realized, the yield will be the third largest on record. Harvested area of all cotton is expected to total 10.5 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 17 percent from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 17.4 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from last month but down 17 percent from last year. Growers in the Southeast are expecting lower production than last month. However, in the Delta and Southwest regions, producers are expecting higher production than last month with record yields forecast in Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. American-Pima production is forecast at a record high 775,500 bales, down 2 percent from last month but up 1 percent from last year. American-Pima harvested area is expected to total 289,000 acres, unchanged from last month but down 11 percent from 2006. The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2007-08 season is 9.83 million tons, 29 percent higher than the 2006-07 final utilization of 7.59 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 168 million boxes (7.56 million tons), is 30 percent higher than last season's final utilization of 129 million boxes and 14 percent above the 2005-06 final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 81.0 million boxes (3.65 million tons), 23 percent above last season and 8 percent higher than 2005-06. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 87.0 million boxes (3.92 million tons), is 37 percent higher than 2006-07 and 20 percent above 2005-06. Average fruit per tree (excluding Navels) is 52 percent higher than last season on early-midseason oranges and 59 percent higher on Valencias. Fruit sizes are considerably smaller on all orange varieties. California's all orange production forecast for October 1 is 58.0 million boxes (2.18 million tons), up 29 percent from 2006-07 but 5 percent below the 2005-06 final utilization. Navel oranges are forecast at 43.0 million boxes (1.61 million tons), up 26 percent from last season but down 9 percent from the 2005-06 utilization. Fruit set per tree was heavy, but fruit size was smaller than average. Some varieties of Navel oranges were being picked. The October 1 production forecast for Valencia oranges is 15.0 million boxes (563,000 tons), up 36 percent from 2006-07 and 7 percent higher than 2005-06. The new season has been progressing well and growers are expecting a good production year for Valencia oranges. The Texas October 1 forecast for all oranges is 1.80 million boxes (77,000 tons), down 9 percent from last season but 13 percent higher than the 2005-06 utilization. Arizona's all orange forecast, at 300,000 boxes (12,000 tons), is unchanged from 2006-07 but down 33 percent from 2005-06. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2007-08 season, at 1.60 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, is 3 percent lower than last season's final yield of 1.65 gallons per box. Projected yield from the 2007-08 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on October 12, 2007. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Keith J. Collins Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested Updates4 Grains & Hay Corn for Grain. . . . . . . . 6 Ears Per Acre. . . . . . .30 Hay, Alfalfa. . . . . . . . .14 Hay, Other. . . . . . . . . .15 Rice. . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Rice, by Class . . . . . . 8 Sorghum for Grain . . . . . . 7 Oilseeds Canola. . . . . . . . . . . .11 Peanuts . . . . . . . . . . .11 Soybeans. . . . . . . . . . . 9 Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet31 Sunflower . . . . . . . . . .10 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton. . . . . . . . . . . .12 Cumulative Bolls Counts. .32 Cottonseed. . . . . . . . . .13 Sugarbeets. . . . . . . . . .16 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed.16 Tobacco . . . . . . . . . . .18 Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Dry Edible Beans. . . . . . .17 Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Apples. . . . . . . . . . . .21 Grapes. . . . . . . . . . . .23 Papayas . . . . . . . . . . .23 Prunes. . . . . . . . . . . .23 Pecans. . . . . . . . . . . .22 Citrus Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . .20 Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . .20 Oranges . . . . . . . . . . .20 Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . .20 Tangerines. . . . . . . . . .20 Temples . . . . . . . . . . .20 Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops Potatoes. . . . . . . . . . .18 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . .35 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . .24 Information Contacts . . . . . .47 Reliability of Production Data in this Report45 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . .33 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . .34 Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2007 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Corn : Sorghum : Soybeans State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- :Planted 1/: Harvested :Planted 1/: Harvested :Planted 1/: Harvested ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : AL : 320 255 10 6 185 175 AZ : 55 20 45 18 AR : 610 590 225 215 2,830 2,780 CA : 650 190 32 8 CO : 1,200 1,050 210 150 CT : 26 DE : 195 175 150 145 FL : 75 40 14 13 GA : 520 470 65 45 285 265 ID : 310 95 IL : 13,200 13,000 80 78 8,250 8,200 IN : 6,500 6,350 4,700 4,680 IA : 14,300 13,950 8,550 8,520 KS : 3,900 3,600 2,800 2,600 2,600 2,500 KY : 1,450 1,360 13 11 1,090 1,075 LA : 740 730 250 245 610 590 ME : 28 MD : 540 470 400 390 MA : 18 MI : 2,650 2,360 1,750 1,740 MN : 8,400 7,850 6,250 6,150 MS : 960 940 145 135 1,450 1,430 MO : 3,400 3,250 110 105 4,600 4,550 MT : 82 30 NE : 9,400 9,000 350 240 3,800 3,750 NV : 5 NH : 14 NJ : 95 78 80 78 NM : 135 50 105 50 NY : 1,040 540 205 203 NC : 1,110 1,030 13 8 1,420 1,370 ND : 2,550 2,250 3,050 3,000 OH : 3,850 3,610 4,150 4,130 OK : 320 270 240 210 190 170 OR : 60 35 PA : 1,410 970 11 4 420 415 RI : 2 SC : 400 375 10 7 450 435 SD : 5,000 4,450 220 150 3,200 3,150 TN : 870 810 20 17 1,040 990 TX : 2,150 1,900 2,750 2,400 85 80 UT : 70 22 VT : 90 VA : 540 400 500 490 WA : 190 125 WV : 46 31 15 14 WI : 4,050 3,300 1,350 1,340 WY : 90 50 : US : 93,616 86,071 7,704 6,702 63,669 62,818 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from the June 2007 "Acreage" report. Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Canola : Sunflower : : :----------------------------------------------------- : : : Oil : Non-Oil : All :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CO : 105 95 15 13 120 108 KS : 155 150 15 14 170 164 MN : 32.0 30.0 86 82 41 38 127 120 MT : 8.0 7.7 NE : 35 32 14 13 49 45 ND :1,080.0 1,050.0 910 880 160 150 1,070 1,030 SD : 395 369 35 31 430 400 TX : 16 15 26 25 42 40 : Oth : Sts 2/: 63.0 56.3 59 56 8 7 67 63 : US :1,183.0 1,144.0 1,761 1,679 314 291 2,075 1,970 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from the June 2007 "Acreage" report. 2/ Other States for Canola include CO, ID, KS, MI, OK, OR, and WA. Other States for Sunflower include CA, IL, MI, MO, MT, OK, WI, and WY. Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2007 : : : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 :------------------: 2006 : 2007 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels ------- --- 1,000 Bushels --- : AL : 165 255 72.0 65.0 73.0 11,880 18,615 AR : 180 590 146.0 155.0 160.0 26,280 94,400 CA : 110 190 165.0 175.0 175.0 18,150 33,250 CO : 860 1,050 156.0 150.0 150.0 134,160 157,500 DE : 161 175 145.0 80.0 85.0 23,345 14,875 GA : 225 470 112.0 120.0 118.0 25,200 55,460 IL : 11,150 13,000 163.0 180.0 178.0 1,817,450 2,314,000 IN : 5,380 6,350 157.0 160.0 158.0 844,660 1,003,300 IA : 12,350 13,950 166.0 182.0 180.0 2,050,100 2,511,000 KS : 3,000 3,600 115.0 135.0 137.0 345,000 493,200 KY : 1,040 1,360 146.0 120.0 124.0 151,840 168,640 LA : 290 730 140.0 160.0 170.0 40,600 124,100 MD : 425 470 142.0 85.0 85.0 60,350 39,950 MI : 1,960 2,360 147.0 113.0 117.0 288,120 276,120 MN : 6,850 7,850 161.0 158.0 156.0 1,102,850 1,224,600 MS : 325 940 110.0 130.0 130.0 35,750 122,200 MO : 2,630 3,250 138.0 140.0 140.0 362,940 455,000 NE : 7,750 9,000 152.0 174.0 168.0 1,178,000 1,512,000 NJ : 64 78 129.0 105.0 105.0 8,256 8,190 NM : 45 50 185.0 185.0 190.0 8,325 9,500 NY : 480 540 129.0 123.0 123.0 61,920 66,420 NC : 740 1,030 132.0 89.0 89.0 97,680 91,670 ND : 1,400 2,250 111.0 127.0 127.0 155,400 285,750 OH : 2,960 3,610 159.0 150.0 150.0 470,640 541,500 OK : 220 270 105.0 138.0 138.0 23,100 37,260 PA : 960 970 122.0 110.0 115.0 117,120 111,550 SC : 290 375 110.0 100.0 95.0 31,900 35,625 SD : 3,220 4,450 97.0 124.0 128.0 312,340 569,600 TN : 500 810 125.0 100.0 106.0 62,500 85,860 TX : 1,450 1,900 121.0 144.0 144.0 175,450 273,600 VA : 345 400 120.0 80.0 80.0 41,400 32,000 WA : 75 125 210.0 210.0 210.0 15,750 26,250 WI : 2,800 3,300 143.0 148.0 145.0 400,400 478,500 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 248 323 145.2 143.6 144.3 36,012 46,617 : US : 70,648 86,071 149.1 155.8 154.7 10,534,868 13,318,102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, FL, ID, MT, OR, UT, WV, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2007 Summary." Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2007 : : : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 :-----------------: 2006 : 2007 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ------- Bushels ------ 1,000 Bushels : AR : 60 215 85.0 87.0 93.0 5,100 19,995 CO : 130 150 26.0 44.0 44.0 3,380 6,600 IL : 72 78 89.0 90.0 86.0 6,408 6,708 KS : 2,500 2,600 58.0 79.0 79.0 145,000 205,400 LA : 87 245 96.0 96.0 96.0 8,352 23,520 MO : 95 105 85.0 98.0 103.0 8,075 10,815 NE : 240 240 80.0 98.0 98.0 19,200 23,520 NM : 60 50 35.0 37.0 37.0 2,100 1,850 OK : 200 210 34.0 53.0 53.0 6,800 11,130 SD : 80 150 36.0 50.0 50.0 2,880 7,500 TX : 1,300 2,400 48.0 69.0 69.0 62,400 165,600 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 113 259 69.4 75.5 72.7 7,843 18,819 : US : 4,937 6,702 56.2 73.9 74.8 277,538 501,457 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, KY, MS, NC, PA, SC, and TN. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2007 Summary." Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 2007 : : : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 :-------------------: 2006 : 2007 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Pounds -------- ---- 1,000 Cwt --- : AR : 1,400 1,325 6,850 6,950 7,200 95,917 95,400 CA : 523 520 7,660 8,200 8,300 40,040 43,160 LA : 345 373 5,820 6,000 6,050 20,093 22,567 MS : 189 189 7,000 7,100 7,350 13,230 13,892 MO : 214 178 6,400 6,800 6,800 13,696 12,104 TX : 150 146 7,170 6,300 6,800 10,760 9,928 : US : 2,821 2,731 6,868 7,024 7,215 193,736 197,051 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rice: Production by Class, United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain 1/ : All : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 2005 : 177,527 42,408 3,300 223,235 2006 : 146,214 43,802 3,720 193,736 2007 2/ : 142,004 50,481 4,566 197,051 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Sweet rice production included with short grain. 2/ The 2007 rice production by class forecasts are based on class harvested acreage estimates and the 5-year average class yield compared to the all rice yield. Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2007 : : : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 :-------------------: 2006 : 2007 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 150 175 20.0 20.0 22.0 3,000 3,850 AR : 3,070 2,780 35.0 38.0 38.0 107,450 105,640 DE : 177 145 31.0 24.0 22.0 5,487 3,190 GA : 140 265 25.0 29.0 30.0 3,500 7,950 IL : 10,050 8,200 48.0 46.0 44.0 482,400 360,800 IN : 5,680 4,680 50.0 43.0 43.0 284,000 201,240 IA : 10,100 8,520 50.5 51.0 52.0 510,050 443,040 KS : 3,080 2,500 32.0 34.0 34.0 98,560 85,000 KY : 1,370 1,075 44.0 30.0 28.0 60,280 30,100 LA : 840 590 35.0 39.0 40.0 29,400 23,600 MD : 465 390 34.0 25.0 25.0 15,810 9,750 MI : 1,990 1,740 45.0 33.0 33.0 89,550 57,420 MN : 7,250 6,150 44.0 42.0 42.0 319,000 258,300 MS : 1,650 1,430 26.0 39.0 41.0 42,900 58,630 MO : 5,110 4,550 38.0 37.0 37.0 194,180 168,350 NE : 5,010 3,750 50.0 52.0 52.0 250,500 195,000 NJ : 86 78 35.0 27.0 26.0 3,010 2,028 NY : 198 203 46.0 37.0 38.0 9,108 7,714 NC : 1,360 1,370 32.0 22.0 20.0 43,520 27,400 ND : 3,870 3,000 31.0 35.0 36.0 119,970 108,000 OH : 4,620 4,130 47.0 44.0 46.0 217,140 189,980 OK : 215 170 17.0 24.0 24.0 3,655 4,080 PA : 425 415 40.0 39.0 39.0 17,000 16,185 SC : 390 435 29.0 22.0 19.0 11,310 8,265 SD : 3,850 3,150 34.0 40.0 41.0 130,900 129,150 TN : 1,130 990 39.0 24.0 23.0 44,070 22,770 TX : 155 80 24.0 32.0 32.0 3,720 2,560 VA : 510 490 31.0 27.0 25.0 15,810 12,250 WI : 1,640 1,340 44.0 42.0 41.0 72,160 54,940 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 21 27 38.4 34.5 32.0 807 864 : US : 74,602 62,818 42.7 41.4 41.4 3,188,247 2,598,046 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include FL and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2007 Summary." Sunflower: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Varietal : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Type & :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 1/ : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : Oil : CO : 75 95 1,100 181,250 82,500 KS : 130 150 1,200 377,300 156,000 MN : 53 82 1,850 115,200 98,050 NE : 31 32 1,200 81,200 37,200 ND : 740 880 1,260 1,424,850 932,400 SD : 410 369 970 793,650 397,700 TX : 13 15 1,050 76,800 13,650 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 62 56 1,137 127,385 70,466 : US : 1,514 1,679 1,181 3,177,635 1,787,966 : Non-Oil : CO : 18 13 1,450 81,000 26,100 KS : 9 14 1,340 74,800 12,060 MN : 32 38 1,600 68,750 51,200 NE : 18 13 1,400 60,800 25,200 ND : 120 150 1,520 327,800 182,400 SD : 38 31 1,050 83,300 39,900 TX : 11 25 700 119,600 7,700 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 10 7 1,109 24,670 11,087 : US : 256 291 1,389 840,720 355,647 : All : CO : 93 108 1,168 1,336 262,250 108,600 144,300 KS : 139 164 1,209 1,696 452,100 168,060 278,100 MN : 85 120 1,756 1,584 183,950 149,250 190,100 NE : 49 45 1,273 1,200 142,000 62,400 54,000 ND : 860 1,030 1,296 1,462 1,752,650 1,114,800 1,506,200 SD : 448 400 977 1,500 876,950 437,600 600,000 TX : 24 40 890 1,075 196,400 21,350 43,000 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 72 63 1,133 1,211 152,055 81,553 76,285 : US : 1,770 1,970 1,211 1,468 4,018,355 2,143,613 2,891,985 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 yield and production estimates for oil and non-oil varieties will be published in the "Crop Production 2007 Summary." 2/ Other States include CA, IL, MI, MO, MT, OK, WI, and WY. Peanuts: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield and Production by State and United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 1/ : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : AL : 225.0 165.0 160.0 223.0 163.0 157.0 FL : 160.0 130.0 125.0 152.0 120.0 115.0 GA : 755.0 580.0 530.0 750.0 575.0 520.0 MS : 15.0 17.0 19.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 NM : 19.0 12.0 10.0 19.0 12.0 10.0 NC : 97.0 85.0 93.0 96.0 84.0 92.0 OK : 35.0 23.0 17.0 33.0 22.0 16.0 SC : 63.0 59.0 59.0 60.0 56.0 56.0 TX : 265.0 155.0 190.0 260.0 145.0 185.0 VA : 23.0 17.0 22.0 22.0 17.0 21.0 : US : 1,657.0 1,243.0 1,225.0 1,629.0 1,210.0 1,190.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2007 : : : : 2005 : 2006 1/ :-------------------: 2005 : 2006 1/ : 2007 : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- Pounds ------------- -------- 1,000 Pounds -------- : AL : 2,750 2,500 2,200 2,400 613,250 407,500 376,800 FL : 2,700 2,500 2,700 2,700 410,400 300,000 310,500 GA : 2,840 2,780 2,900 2,950 2,130,000 1,598,500 1,534,000 MS : 3,200 2,900 3,100 3,200 44,800 46,400 57,600 NM : 3,500 3,600 3,500 3,500 66,500 43,200 35,000 NC : 3,000 3,200 2,300 2,400 288,000 268,800 220,800 OK : 3,270 2,850 3,200 3,200 107,910 62,700 51,200 SC : 2,800 3,000 2,800 2,900 168,000 168,000 162,400 TX : 3,750 3,550 3,300 3,400 975,000 514,750 629,000 VA : 3,000 3,200 2,400 2,000 66,000 54,400 42,000 : US : 2,989 2,863 2,803 2,873 4,869,860 3,464,250 3,419,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Canola: Area Harvested, Yield and Production by State and United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : MN : 27.0 30.0 1,330 1,330 31,160 35,910 39,900 MT : 9.8 7.7 1,120 1,600 21,285 10,976 12,320 ND : 935.0 1,050.0 1,370 1,310 1,461,600 1,280,950 1,375,500 : Oth Sts 1/ : 49.2 56.3 1,352 1,308 66,940 66,496 73,621 : US :1,021.0 1,144.0 1,366 1,312 1,580,985 1,394,332 1,501,341 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ For 2005, Other States include ID, MI, OK, OR, and WA. For 2006 and 2007, Other States include CO, ID, KS, MI, OK, OR, and WA. Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 2007 : : State : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 :-------------------: 2006 : 2007 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 560.0 390.0 579 578 492 675.0 400.0 AZ : 188.0 178.0 1,420 1,375 1,429 556.0 530.0 AR : 1,160.0 850.0 1,045 1,045 1,045 2,525.0 1,850.0 CA : 283.0 194.0 1,321 1,410 1,410 779.0 570.0 FL : 101.0 82.0 789 644 644 166.0 110.0 GA : 1,370.0 1,010.0 818 808 775 2,334.0 1,630.0 KS : 110.0 45.0 511 480 533 117.0 50.0 LA : 630.0 325.0 946 960 990 1,241.0 670.0 MS : 1,220.0 655.0 829 953 953 2,107.0 1,300.0 MO : 496.0 389.0 953 925 962 985.0 780.0 NM : 48.0 44.0 930 1,113 1,047 93.0 96.0 NC : 865.0 495.0 713 611 611 1,285.0 630.0 OK : 180.0 165.0 541 698 785 203.0 270.0 SC : 298.0 178.0 697 485 378 433.0 140.0 TN : 695.0 495.0 945 815 756 1,368.0 780.0 TX : 4,100.0 4,700.0 679 715 766 5,800.0 7,500.0 VA : 104.0 59.0 717 586 586 155.4 72.0 : US :12,408.0 10,254.0 806 797 813 20,822.4 17,378.0 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 7.0 3.0 919 880 880 13.4 5.5 CA : 274.0 257.0 1,204 1,382 1,345 687.0 720.0 NM : 12.5 5.0 768 720 768 20.0 8.0 TX : 30.0 24.0 720 800 840 45.0 42.0 : US : 323.5 289.0 1,136 1,317 1,288 765.4 775.5 : All : AL : 560.0 390.0 579 578 492 675.0 400.0 AZ : 195.0 181.0 1,402 1,367 1,420 569.4 535.5 AR : 1,160.0 850.0 1,045 1,045 1,045 2,525.0 1,850.0 CA : 557.0 451.0 1,263 1,394 1,373 1,466.0 1,290.0 FL : 101.0 82.0 789 644 644 166.0 110.0 GA : 1,370.0 1,010.0 818 808 775 2,334.0 1,630.0 KS : 110.0 45.0 511 480 533 117.0 50.0 LA : 630.0 325.0 946 960 990 1,241.0 670.0 MS : 1,220.0 655.0 829 953 953 2,107.0 1,300.0 MO : 496.0 389.0 953 925 962 985.0 780.0 NM : 60.5 49.0 897 1,073 1,019 113.0 104.0 NC : 865.0 495.0 713 611 611 1,285.0 630.0 OK : 180.0 165.0 541 698 785 203.0 270.0 SC : 298.0 178.0 697 485 378 433.0 140.0 TN : 695.0 495.0 945 815 756 1,368.0 780.0 TX : 4,130.0 4,724.0 679 715 766 5,845.0 7,542.0 VA : 104.0 59.0 717 586 586 155.4 72.0 : US :12,731.5 10,543.0 814 811 826 21,587.8 18,153.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-lb. net weight bale. Cottonseed: Production, United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 8,172.1 7,347.9 6,287.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : AZ : 250 250 8.30 8.30 2,184 2,075 2,075 CA : 1,050 950 6.80 7.40 7,176 7,140 7,030 CO : 780 800 3.80 4.00 2,960 2,964 3,200 ID : 1,180 1,200 4.30 4.20 4,788 5,074 5,040 IL : 440 380 4.10 3.50 1,400 1,804 1,330 IN : 360 300 4.10 2.70 1,292 1,476 810 IA : 1,180 1,080 3.90 3.80 5,125 4,602 4,104 KS : 950 900 3.80 3.90 3,400 3,610 3,510 KY : 280 270 3.70 1.60 832 1,036 432 MI : 830 830 3.60 2.40 2,790 2,988 1,992 MN : 1,350 1,300 3.30 3.00 4,725 4,455 3,900 MO : 390 400 2.90 2.80 1,215 1,131 1,120 MT : 1,550 1,650 2.10 2.10 3,850 3,255 3,465 NE : 1,250 1,200 3.30 3.80 4,625 4,125 4,560 NV : 270 265 5.10 4.90 1,248 1,377 1,299 NM : 220 260 5.10 5.40 1,224 1,122 1,404 NY : 370 400 2.10 2.20 945 777 880 ND : 1,450 1,550 1.20 2.00 3,300 1,740 3,100 OH : 470 430 3.50 2.70 1,836 1,645 1,161 OK : 380 390 2.10 3.00 1,184 798 1,170 OR : 430 400 4.40 4.60 1,760 1,892 1,840 PA : 500 550 3.00 2.70 1,326 1,500 1,485 SD : 1,800 2,100 1.60 2.80 5,160 2,880 5,880 TX : 150 120 4.50 6.20 810 675 744 UT : 560 565 4.00 4.10 2,268 2,240 2,317 VA : 110 110 3.60 2.50 396 396 275 WA : 440 430 4.90 5.20 2,340 2,156 2,236 WI : 1,650 1,600 2.80 2.40 3,720 4,620 3,840 WY : 500 550 2.80 2.80 1,560 1,400 1,540 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 244 221 2.92 2.75 710 713 608 : US : 21,384 21,451 3.35 3.37 76,149 71,666 72,347 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AR, CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NC, RI, TN, VT, and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2007 Summary." All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : AL : 720 800 2.00 1.90 1,971 1,440 1,520 AR : 1,450 1,500 1.70 2.00 2,193 2,465 3,000 CA : 530 620 3.60 3.60 2,030 1,908 2,232 CO : 750 750 1.90 2.00 1,125 1,425 1,500 GA : 650 600 1.80 1.70 1,650 1,170 1,020 ID : 340 290 1.90 1.60 594 646 464 IL : 320 300 2.20 2.00 759 704 600 IN : 290 340 2.50 1.80 775 725 612 IA : 320 290 2.20 2.00 735 704 580 KS : 2,100 2,150 1.40 1.90 3,280 2,940 4,085 KY : 2,200 2,200 2.40 1.50 4,945 5,280 3,300 LA : 390 400 2.50 2.90 805 975 1,160 MI : 310 230 2.20 1.90 500 682 437 MN : 720 800 1.70 1.50 1,330 1,224 1,200 MS : 780 750 2.00 2.00 2,117 1,560 1,500 MO : 3,750 3,800 1.55 1.60 5,503 5,813 6,080 MT : 710 900 1.50 1.50 2,000 1,065 1,350 NE : 1,550 1,550 1.00 1.40 2,320 1,550 2,170 NY : 1,150 1,050 1.75 1.80 1,680 2,013 1,890 NC : 680 690 2.40 1.30 1,632 1,632 897 ND : 1,270 1,450 1.10 1.40 2,346 1,397 2,030 OH : 740 700 2.40 1.80 1,794 1,776 1,260 OK : 2,800 2,900 1.00 2.00 3,900 2,800 5,800 OR : 620 600 2.20 1.60 1,380 1,364 960 PA : 1,250 1,150 2.90 1.70 2,071 3,625 1,955 SD : 1,300 1,500 1.00 1.50 2,400 1,300 2,250 TN : 1,800 1,860 2.30 1.30 4,255 4,140 2,418 TX : 5,000 5,200 1.60 2.70 8,330 8,000 14,040 VA : 1,130 1,170 2.20 1.80 3,146 2,486 2,106 WA : 330 350 2.90 3.00 870 957 1,050 WV : 555 570 1.70 1.40 972 944 798 WI : 490 450 1.60 1.40 750 784 630 WY : 550 550 1.30 1.50 756 715 825 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,878 1,878 2.02 2.08 3,954 3,791 3,898 : US : 39,423 40,338 1.78 1.87 74,868 70,000 75,617 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, CT, DE, FL, ME, MD, MA, NV, NH, NJ, NM, RI, SC, UT, and VT. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2007 Summary." Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2007 : : : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 :-------------------: 2006 : 2007 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- --------- Tons --------- -- 1,000 Tons -- : CA : 43.1 39.1 36.1 35.4 38.0 1,556 1,486 CO : 38.0 29.3 23.4 25.4 25.4 889 744 ID : 187.0 167.0 31.7 30.5 30.5 5,928 5,094 MI : 154.0 149.0 23.2 21.5 21.5 3,573 3,204 MN : 477.0 475.0 24.9 22.4 22.8 11,877 10,830 MT : 48.5 47.0 27.0 26.0 26.0 1,310 1,222 NE : 57.8 44.5 23.3 23.3 23.3 1,347 1,037 ND : 243.0 247.0 26.0 23.0 23.0 6,318 5,681 OR : 13.1 11.0 30.1 30.6 30.6 394 337 WA : 2.0 2.0 37.0 38.0 38.0 74 76 WY : 40.1 30.5 19.9 22.0 22.0 798 671 : US : 1,303.6 1,241.4 26.1 24.2 24.5 34,064 30,382 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA. Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2007 : : : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 :-------------------: 2006 : 2007 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Tons --------- -- 1,000 Tons -- : FL : 400.0 396.0 35.9 36.9 36.9 14,346 14,612 HI : 22.4 22.5 75.0 79.0 79.0 1,681 1,778 LA : 435.0 420.0 27.3 29.0 29.0 11,876 12,180 TX : 40.7 45.0 41.2 40.9 40.9 1,677 1,841 : US : 898.1 883.5 32.9 34.4 34.4 29,580 30,411 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 2/ : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 67.0 60.0 65.0 58.0 CO : 70.0 50.0 60.0 45.0 ID : 105.0 90.0 103.0 88.0 KS : 11.0 6.5 10.0 6.0 MI : 225.0 200.0 215.0 195.0 MN : 145.0 150.0 135.0 140.0 MT 3/ : 19.5 18.0 18.6 17.0 NE : 140.0 110.0 124.0 105.0 NM 3/ : 8.2 7.2 8.2 7.2 NY : 19.0 17.0 18.0 16.3 ND : 670.0 690.0 640.0 660.0 OR 3/ : 10.0 8.0 9.8 7.9 SD : 21.5 13.0 19.0 12.1 TX : 20.0 15.0 18.0 14.0 UT 3/ : 3.0 1.6 0.5 1.6 WA : 61.0 60.0 60.5 59.5 WI 3/ : 5.6 6.0 5.5 5.9 WY : 29.0 25.0 27.5 24.0 : US : 1,629.8 1,527.3 1,537.6 1,462.5 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield 4/ : Production 4/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Pounds ------ ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : CA : 1,860 2,200 1,209 1,276 CO : 1,900 1,600 1,140 720 ID : 1,850 1,750 1,906 1,540 KS : 2,100 2,100 210 126 MI : 1,900 1,450 4,085 2,828 MN : 1,650 1,800 2,228 2,520 MT 3/ : 1,640 1,800 305 306 NE : 2,200 2,300 2,728 2,415 NM 3/ : 2,400 2,400 197 173 NY : 1,330 1,200 239 196 ND : 1,200 1,650 7,680 10,890 OR 3/ : 1,940 1,750 190 138 SD : 1,180 2,000 224 242 TX : 1,320 1,500 238 210 UT 3/ : 350 300 2 5 WA : 1,600 1,700 968 1,012 WI 3/ : 1,960 1,950 108 115 WY : 2,150 2,300 590 552 : US : 1,577 1,727 24,247 25,264 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2/ Updated from the August "Crop Production" report. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 4/ Cleaned basis. Winter Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres CA : 12.0 11.5 12.0 11.5 FL 1/ : 5.7 5.5 : US : 17.7 11.5 17.5 11.5 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Cwt ------- ----- 1,000 Cwt ----- : CA : 260 215 3,120 2,473 FL 1/ : 250 1,375 : US : 257 215 4,495 2,473 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Winter potatoes combined with spring potatoes in 2007. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2007 : : : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 :-------------------: 2006 : 2007 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- -------- Pounds -------- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : CT : 2,500 2,800 1,597 1,775 1,661 3,992 4,650 FL 1/ : 1,100 2,600 2,860 GA : 17,000 20,000 1,770 2,100 2,000 30,090 40,000 KY : 83,000 87,500 2,250 2,018 1,970 186,780 172,350 MA : 1,150 1,220 1,583 1,746 1,664 1,820 2,030 MO 2/ : 1,500 1,700 2,250 2,100 2,100 3,375 3,570 NC : 158,800 169,000 2,081 1,991 1,991 330,410 336,400 OH : 3,500 3,300 2,000 1,800 1,750 7,000 5,775 PA : 7,900 7,900 2,056 2,166 2,154 16,240 17,020 SC : 23,000 22,000 2,100 2,250 2,250 48,300 49,500 TN : 19,800 19,050 2,482 2,056 1,990 49,135 37,910 VA : 19,650 20,600 2,374 1,989 1,979 46,642 40,760 : US : 338,900 355,070 2,144 2,023 2,000 726,644 709,965 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2007. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class, Type, and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds --- 1,000 Pounds : Class 1, Flue-cured : FL 1/ : 1,100 2,600 2,860 GA : 17,000 20,000 1,770 2,000 30,090 40,000 NC : 155,000 165,000 2,090 2,000 323,950 330,000 SC : 23,000 22,000 2,100 2,250 48,300 49,500 VA : 17,000 18,000 2,430 2,000 41,310 36,000 US : 213,100 225,000 2,095 2,024 446,510 455,500 Class 2, Fire-cured : KY : 6,200 6,500 3,500 3,000 21,700 19,500 TN : 5,300 6,400 3,200 2,700 16,960 17,280 VA : 350 400 2,090 2,000 732 800 US : 11,850 13,300 3,324 2,826 39,392 37,580 Class 3, Air-cured : Light Air-cured : Burley : KY : 73,000 77,000 2,100 1,850 153,300 142,450 MO 2/ : 1,500 1,700 2,250 2,100 3,375 3,570 NC : 3,800 4,000 1,700 1,600 6,460 6,400 OH : 3,500 3,300 2,000 1,750 7,000 5,775 PA : 5,500 5,000 2,100 2,150 11,550 10,750 TN : 14,000 12,000 2,200 1,600 30,800 19,200 VA : 2,300 2,200 2,000 1,800 4,600 3,960 US : 103,600 105,200 2,095 1,826 217,085 192,105 Southern MD Belt : PA : 1,100 1,100 1,900 2,100 2,090 2,310 Total Light Air-cured : 104,700 106,300 2,093 1,829 219,175 194,415 Dark Air-cured : KY : 3,800 4,000 3,100 2,600 11,780 10,400 TN : 500 650 2,750 2,200 1,375 1,430 US : 4,300 4,650 3,059 2,544 13,155 11,830 Class 4, Cigar Filler : PA Seedleaf : PA : 1,300 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,600 3,960 Class 5, Cigar Filler : CT Valley Binder : CT : 1,650 1,800 1,760 1,750 2,904 3,150 MA : 950 1,000 1,610 1,700 1,530 1,700 US : 2,600 2,800 1,705 1,732 4,434 4,850 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper : CT Valley Shade-grown : CT : 850 1,000 1,280 1,500 1,088 1,500 MA : 200 220 1,450 1,500 290 330 US : 1,050 1,220 1,312 1,500 1,378 1,830 All Cigar Types : 4,950 5,820 1,699 1,828 8,412 10,640 : All Tobacco : 338,900 355,070 2,144 2,000 726,644 709,965 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2007. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2005-06, 2006-07 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2007-08 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2007-08 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 250 200 200 9 8 8 CA : 47,000 34,000 43,000 1,763 1,275 1,613 FL 4/ : 75,000 65,600 81,000 3,375 2,952 3,645 TX : 1,400 1,600 1,450 60 68 62 US : 123,650 101,400 125,650 5,207 4,303 5,328 Valencia : AZ : 200 100 100 8 4 4 CA : 14,000 11,000 15,000 525 413 563 FL : 72,700 63,400 87,000 3,272 2,853 3,915 TX : 200 380 350 9 16 15 US : 87,100 74,880 102,450 3,814 3,286 4,497 All : AZ : 450 300 300 17 12 12 CA : 61,000 45,000 58,000 2,288 1,688 2,176 FL : 147,700 129,000 168,000 6,647 5,805 7,560 TX : 1,600 1,980 1,800 69 84 77 US : 210,750 176,280 228,100 9,021 7,589 9,825 Temples 4/ : FL : 700 32 Grapefruit : White : FL : 6,500 9,300 9,000 276 395 383 Colored : FL : 12,800 17,900 16,000 544 761 680 All : AZ : 100 100 200 3 3 7 CA : 6,000 4,000 4,500 201 134 151 FL : 19,300 27,200 25,000 820 1,156 1,063 TX : 5,200 7,100 6,800 208 284 272 US : 30,600 38,400 36,500 1,232 1,577 1,493 Tangerines : AZ 5/ : 550 300 400 21 11 15 CA 5/ : 3,600 2,900 4,700 135 109 176 FL : 5,500 4,600 5,100 261 219 242 US : 9,650 7,800 10,200 417 339 433 Lemons : AZ : 3,800 2,500 1,500 144 95 57 CA : 22,000 16,000 16,500 836 608 627 US : 25,800 18,500 18,000 980 703 684 Tangelos : FL : 1,400 1,250 1,300 63 56 59 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 5/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds : AZ 2/ : 22.2 30.1 23.0 CA 2/ : 355.0 355.0 340.0 CO 2/ : 31.0 15.0 15.0 CT 2/ : 15.5 17.5 20.5 GA 2/ : 14.0 13.0 3.0 ID 2/ : 70.0 60.0 45.0 IL 2/ : 49.0 52.5 10.0 IN 2/ : 50.0 55.0 30.0 IA 2/ : 2.1 6.7 1.8 KY 2/ : 5.5 6.9 0.8 ME 2/ : 31.0 23.5 40.0 MD 2/ : 41.0 34.0 33.0 MA 2/ : 28.5 32.0 36.5 MI : 760.0 850.0 780.0 MN 2/ : 22.0 23.0 24.0 MO 2/ : 49.0 53.0 5.0 NH 2/ : 21.0 28.5 27.0 NJ 2/ : 45.0 45.0 42.0 NY : 1,045.0 1,250.0 1,260.0 NC : 130.0 173.0 50.0 OH 2/ : 99.0 102.0 55.0 OR 2/ : 145.0 150.0 145.0 PA : 500.0 470.0 455.0 RI 2/ : 1.6 2.0 2.5 SC 2/ : 4.0 3.0 0.5 TN 2/ : 8.5 10.0 0.1 UT 2/ : 38.0 10.0 25.0 VT 2/ : 33.0 36.0 33.0 VA : 250.0 220.0 210.0 WA : 5,700.0 5,650.0 5,400.0 WV : 87.0 90.0 80.0 WI 2/ : 52.0 65.0 62.0 : US : 9,704.9 9,931.7 9,254.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Pecans: Utilized Production by Variety, State, and United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds Improved Varieties 1/ : AL : 3,200 5,400 9,000 AZ : 22,000 14,000 23,000 AR : 1,100 1,150 850 CA : 3,950 3,400 4,200 FL : 300 200 900 GA : 72,000 36,000 90,000 LA : 1,000 3,500 3,000 MS : 800 2,000 2,400 MO : 200 160 1 NM : 65,000 46,000 71,000 NC : 1,650 420 510 OK : 6,000 5,000 6,000 SC : 1,500 900 1,500 TX : 50,000 33,000 48,000 : US : 228,700 151,130 260,361 : Native & Seedling : AL : 800 600 2,000 AR : 1,200 1,050 750 FL : 700 300 100 GA : 8,000 6,000 10,000 KS : 3,200 2,000 200 LA : 4,000 17,500 9,000 MS : 200 500 600 MO : 2,400 940 4 NC : 350 80 90 OK : 15,000 12,000 14,000 SC : 700 200 500 TX : 15,000 14,000 22,000 : US : 51,550 55,170 59,244 : All Pecans : AL : 4,000 6,000 11,000 AZ : 22,000 14,000 23,000 AR : 2,300 2,200 1,600 CA : 3,950 3,400 4,200 FL : 1,000 500 1,000 GA : 80,000 42,000 100,000 KS : 3,200 2,000 200 LA : 5,000 21,000 12,000 MS : 1,000 2,500 3,000 MO : 2,600 1,100 5 NM : 65,000 46,000 71,000 NC : 2,000 500 600 OK : 21,000 17,000 20,000 SC : 2,200 1,100 2,000 TX : 65,000 47,000 70,000 : US : 280,250 206,300 319,605 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2005-2006 and Forecasted October 1, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :-------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : AZ 1/ : 1,000 900 1,100 AR 1/ : 1,900 2,300 250 CA : All Types : 6,963,000 5,766,000 6,180,000 Wine : 3,806,000 3,176,000 3,200,000 Table 2/ : 872,000 729,000 780,000 Raisin 2/ : 2,285,000 1,861,000 2,200,000 GA 1/ : 3,500 2,900 3,100 MI : 102,700 32,500 100,000 MO 1/ : 3,900 4,170 2,800 NY : 178,000 155,000 176,000 NC 1/ : 3,900 4,580 3,500 OH 1/ : 8,500 3,100 8,000 OR 1/ : 27,000 34,400 35,000 PA : 90,000 82,000 80,000 TX 1/ : 9,700 7,100 9,500 VA 1/ : 5,600 6,200 6,200 WA : All Types : 415,000 316,000 385,000 Wine : 110,000 120,000 125,000 Juice : 305,000 196,000 260,000 : US : 7,813,700 6,417,150 6,990,450 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Fresh basis. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Jul : 1,755 1,735 1,510 810 1,705 2,385 Aug : 2,160 2,135 1,330 1,395 2,215 2,405 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Prunes (Dried Plums): Total Production, California, 2005-2006 and Forecasted 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : Prunes (Dried Basis) : 97,000 180,000 90,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Survey of prune growers conducted from August 27 through September 21. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3,452.0 4,020.0 2,951.0 3,508.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 78,327.0 93,616.0 70,648.0 86,071.0 Corn for Silage : 6,477.0 Hay, All : 60,807.0 61,789.0 Alfalfa : 21,384.0 21,451.0 All Other : 39,423.0 40,338.0 Oats : 4,168.0 3,760.0 1,566.0 1,505.0 Proso Millet : 580.0 610.0 475.0 Rice : 2,838.0 2,748.0 2,821.0 2,731.0 Rye : 1,396.0 1,376.0 274.0 289.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 6,522.0 7,704.0 4,937.0 6,702.0 Sorghum for Silage : 347.0 Wheat, All : 57,344.0 60,433.0 46,810.0 51,011.0 Winter : 40,575.0 44,987.0 31,117.0 35,952.0 Durum : 1,870.0 2,149.0 1,815.0 2,112.0 Other Spring : 14,899.0 13,297.0 13,878.0 12,947.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,044.0 1,183.0 1,021.0 1,144.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 813.0 465.0 767.0 453.0 Mustard Seed : 40.5 57.5 39.2 54.8 Peanuts : 1,243.0 1,225.0 1,210.0 1,190.0 Rapeseed : 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.2 Safflower : 189.0 170.0 179.0 162.5 Soybeans for Beans : 75,522.0 63,669.0 74,602.0 62,818.0 Sunflower : 1,950.0 2,075.0 1,770.0 1,970.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 15,274.0 10,847.0 12,731.5 10,543.0 Upland : 14,948.0 10,554.0 12,408.0 10,254.0 Amer-Pima : 326.0 293.0 323.5 289.0 Sugarbeets : 1,366.2 1,266.0 1,303.6 1,241.4 Sugarcane : 898.1 883.5 Tobacco : 338.9 355.1 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 46.0 27.0 22.5 17.0 Dry Edible Beans : 1,629.8 1,527.3 1,537.6 1,462.5 Dry Edible Peas : 925.5 880.5 884.1 834.3 Lentils : 429.0 305.0 407.0 293.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 0.1 Hops : 29.4 31.0 Peppermint Oil : 79.2 Potatoes, All : 1,140.1 1,147.5 1,121.9 1,128.4 Winter : 17.7 11.5 17.5 11.5 Spring : 70.7 73.0 67.5 70.4 Summer : 58.0 53.8 53.9 50.3 Fall : 993.7 1,009.2 983.0 996.2 Spearmint Oil : 18.5 Sweet Potatoes : 95.2 96.5 86.8 93.2 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full~2007 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 61.1 60.4 180,165 211,825 Corn for Grain :" : 149.1 154.7 10,534,868 13,318,102 Corn for Silage :Tons : 16.2 104,849 Hay, All :" : 2.33 2.39 141,666 147,964 Alfalfa :" : 3.35 3.37 71,666 72,347 All Other :" : 1.78 1.87 70,000 75,617 Oats :Bu : 59.8 60.9 93,638 91,599 Proso Millet :" : 21.5 10,195 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 6,868 7,215 193,736 197,051 Rye :Bu : 26.3 27.4 7,193 7,914 Sorghum for Grain :" : 56.2 74.8 277,538 501,457 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 13.4 4,642 Wheat, All :Bu : 38.7 40.5 1,812,036 2,066,722 Winter :" : 41.7 42.2 1,298,081 1,515,989 Durum :" : 29.5 33.9 53,475 71,686 Other Spring :" : 33.2 37.0 460,480 479,047 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,366 1,312 1,394,332 1,501,341 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 7,347.9 6,287.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 14.4 11,019 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 720 28,220 Peanuts :" : 2,863 2,873 3,464,250 3,419,300 Rapeseed :" : 1,100 1,100 Safflower :" : 1,069 191,405 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 42.7 41.4 3,188,247 2,598,046 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,211 1,468 2,143,613 2,891,985 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 814 826 21,587.8 18,153.5 Upland 2/ :" : 806 813 20,822.4 17,378.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,136 1,288 765.4 775.5 Sugarbeets :Tons : 26.1 24.5 34,064 30,382 Sugarcane :" : 32.9 34.4 29,580 30,411 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,144 2,000 726,644 709,965 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,151 259 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,577 1,727 24,247 25,264 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,493 13,203 Lentils 2/ :" : 797 3,244 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 590 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,170 7,400 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 43,000 35,000 4,300 2,800 Hops :" : 1,964 1,952 57,671.8 60,570.7 Peppermint Oil :" : 92 7,248 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 393 441,348 Winter :" : 257 215 4,495 2,473 Spring :" : 293 294 19,766 20,668 Summer :" : 337 328 18,166 16,504 Fall :" : 406 398,921 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 110 2,038 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 187 16,248 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,500 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full~2007 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :----------------------------------------- : : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit :Tons : 1,232 1,577 1,493 Lemons :" : 980 703 684 Oranges 3/ :" : 9,021 7,589 9,825 Tangelos (FL) :" : 63 56 59 Tangerines :" : 417 339 433 Temples (FL) 3/ :" : 32 : : Noncitrus : : Apples :1,000 Lbs: 9,931.7 9,254.7 Apricots :Tons : 44.5 86.6 Bananas (HI) :Lbs : 20,000.0 Grapes :Tons : 6,417.2 6,990.5 Olives (CA) :" : 23.5 110.0 Papayas (HI) :Lbs : 28,700.0 Peaches :Tons : 1,010.1 1,026.9 Pears :" : 842.0 878.1 Prunes, Dried (CA) :" : 180.0 90.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) :" : 21.5 13.7 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled) :Lbs : 1,115,000 1,330,000 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) :Tons : 43.0 33.0 Pecans (in-shell) :Lbs : 206,300 319,605 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) :Tons : 346.0 320.0 Maple Syrup :Gals : 1,449 1,258 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full~2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season. 2/ Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2006-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,396,990 1,626,850 1,194,240 1,419,650 Corn for Grain 2/ :31,698,150 37,885,460 28,590,540 34,832,070 Corn for Silage : 2,621,180 Hay, All 3/ : 24,607,980 25,005,390 Alfalfa : 8,653,890 8,681,010 All Other : 15,954,090 16,324,390 Oats : 1,686,750 1,521,630 633,740 609,060 Proso Millet : 234,720 246,860 192,230 Rice : 1,148,510 1,112,090 1,141,630 1,105,210 Rye : 564,950 556,850 110,890 116,960 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 2,639,390 3,117,730 1,997,950 2,712,230 Sorghum for Silage : 140,430 Wheat, All 3/ :23,206,540 24,456,630 18,943,540 20,643,640 Winter :16,420,300 18,205,790 12,592,740 14,549,410 Durum : 756,770 869,680 734,510 854,710 Other Spring : 6,029,480 5,381,160 5,616,290 5,239,520 : Oilseeds : Canola : 422,500 478,750 413,190 462,970 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 329,010 188,180 310,400 183,320 Mustard Seed : 16,390 23,270 15,860 22,180 Peanuts : 503,030 495,750 489,670 481,580 Rapeseed : 570 570 400 490 Safflower : 76,490 68,800 72,440 65,760 Soybeans for Beans :30,563,000 25,766,210 30,190,680 25,421,820 Sunflower : 789,150 839,730 716,300 797,240 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 6,181,240 4,389,670 5,152,310 4,266,650 Upland : 6,049,310 4,271,100 5,021,390 4,149,690 Amer-Pima : 131,930 118,570 130,920 116,960 Sugarbeets : 552,890 512,340 527,550 502,380 Sugarcane : 363,450 357,540 Tobacco : 137,150 143,690 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 18,620 10,930 9,110 6,880 Dry Edible Beans : 659,560 618,080 622,250 591,860 Dry Edible Peas : 374,540 356,330 357,790 337,630 Lentils : 173,610 123,430 164,710 118,570 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 Ginger Root (HI) : 40 30 Hops : 11,880 12,560 Peppermint Oil : 32,050 Potatoes, All 3/ : 461,390 464,380 454,020 456,650 Winter : 7,160 4,650 7,080 4,650 Spring : 28,610 29,540 27,320 28,490 Summer : 23,470 21,770 21,810 20,360 Fall : 402,140 408,410 397,810 403,150 Spearmint Oil : 7,490 Sweet Potatoes : 38,530 39,050 35,130 37,720 Taro (HI) 5/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full~2007 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2006-2007 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.28 3.25 3,922,630 4,611,940 Corn for Grain : 9.36 9.71 267,597,970 338,295,370 Corn for Silage : 36.29 95,117,410 Hay, All 2/ : 5.22 5.37 128,517,230 134,230,680 Alfalfa : 7.51 7.56 65,014,300 65,632,090 All Other : 3.98 4.20 63,502,930 68,598,590 Oats : 2.14 2.18 1,359,150 1,329,560 Proso Millet : 1.20 231,220 Rice : 7.70 8.09 8,787,720 8,938,080 Rye : 1.65 1.72 182,710 201,020 Sorghum for Grain : 3.53 4.70 7,049,790 12,737,590 Sorghum for Silage : 29.99 4,211,150 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.60 2.72 49,315,540 56,246,960 Winter : 2.81 2.84 35,327,980 41,258,460 Durum : 1.98 2.28 1,455,350 1,950,970 Other Spring : 2.23 2.49 12,532,210 13,037,520 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.53 1.47 632,460 681,000 Cottonseed 3/ : 6,665,900 5,703,470 Flaxseed : 0.90 279,900 Mustard Seed : 0.81 12,800 Peanuts : 3.21 3.22 1,571,360 1,550,970 Rapeseed : 1.23 500 Safflower : 1.20 86,820 Soybeans for Beans : 2.87 2.78 86,769,860 70,707,220 Sunflower : 1.36 1.65 972,330 1,311,780 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.91 0.93 4,700,190 3,952,460 Upland : 0.90 0.91 4,533,540 3,783,610 Amer-Pima : 1.27 1.44 166,650 168,850 Sugarbeets : 58.58 54.86 30,902,340 27,562,090 Sugarcane : 73.83 77.16 26,834,520 27,588,400 Tobacco : 2.40 2.24 329,600 322,030 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.29 11,750 Dry Edible Beans : 1.77 1.94 1,099,830 1,145,960 Dry Edible Peas : 1.67 598,880 Lentils : 0.89 147,150 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 26,760 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.32 3,360 Ginger Root (HI) : 48.20 39.23 1,950 1,270 Hops : 2.20 2.19 26,160 27,470 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,290 Potatoes, All 2/ : 44.09 20,019,210 Winter : 28.79 24.10 203,890 112,170 Spring : 32.82 32.91 896,570 937,480 Summer : 37.78 36.78 824,000 748,610 Fall : 45.49 18,094,750 Spearmint Oil : 0.12 920 Sweet Potatoes : 20.98 737,000 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,040 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full~2007 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :-------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,117,650 1,430,630 1,354,430 Lemons : 889,040 637,750 620,510 Oranges 3/ : 8,183,710 6,884,620 8,913,090 Tangelos (FL) : 57,150 50,800 53,520 Tangerines : 378,300 307,540 392,810 Temples (FL) 3/ : 29,030 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,504,940 4,197,860 Apricots : 40,350 78,530 Bananas (HI) : 9,070 Grapes : 5,821,540 6,341,630 Olives (CA) : 21,320 99,790 Papayas (HI) : 13,020 Peaches : 916,370 931,630 Pears : 763,880 796,550 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 163,290 81,650 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 19,500 12,430 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 505,760 603,280 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) : 39,010 29,940 Pecans (in-shell) : 93,580 144,970 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) : 313,890 290,300 Maple Syrup : 7,240 6,290 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full~2007 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season. 2/ Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 10 corn producing States during 2007. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual field counts from this survey. Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre, Selected States, 2003-2007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Sep : 26,700 27,350 26,950 27,600 27,750 : Oct : 26,700 27,400 26,850 27,450 27,750 : Nov : 26,650 27,400 26,850 27,400 : Final : 26,650 27,400 26,850 27,400 : : IN : Sep : 25,350 26,200 24,850 25,850 26,950 : Oct : 25,400 25,950 24,600 25,750 26,800 : Nov : 25,350 26,050 24,650 25,700 : Final : 25,350 26,050 24,650 25,750 : : IA : Sep : 26,700 27,350 27,150 27,350 28,500 : Oct : 26,550 27,550 27,100 27,350 28,400 : Nov : 26,600 27,500 27,100 27,350 : Final : 26,600 27,500 27,100 27,350 : : KS 1/ : Sep : 22,100 21,100 20,850 20,900 : Oct : 22,150 21,000 20,750 20,800 : Nov : 22,150 20,900 20,750 : Final : 22,150 20,900 20,750 : : MN : Sep : 28,300 29,000 28,000 28,050 28,850 : Oct : 28,650 29,250 27,900 28,250 28,600 : Nov : 28,600 29,150 28,050 28,250 : Final : 28,600 29,200 28,050 28,250 : : MO 2/ : Sep : 24,400 22,550 23,850 23,950 : Oct : 24,250 22,600 23,800 23,950 : Nov : 24,250 22,600 23,800 : Final : 24,250 22,600 23,800 : : NE : Sep : 22,950 23,650 23,250 23,850 24,850 All : Oct : 22,650 24,000 22,800 23,700 24,750 : Nov : 22,600 24,050 22,800 23,700 : Final : 22,600 24,050 22,800 23,550 : : NE : Sep : 26,550 26,550 26,250 26,750 27,200 Irrigated : Oct : 26,350 26,700 25,900 26,600 27,000 : Nov : 26,300 26,650 25,900 26,600 : Final : 26,300 26,650 25,900 26,650 : : NE : Sep : 18,300 19,100 19,550 19,400 21,100 Non-Irrigated: Oct : 17,850 19,800 18,950 19,150 21,050 : Nov : 17,800 20,000 18,900 19,200 : Final : 17,800 20,000 18,900 18,800 : : OH : Sep : 25,500 25,950 24,800 25,200 26,350 : Oct : 25,700 26,000 24,700 25,350 26,000 : Nov : 25,750 26,000 24,650 25,450 : Final : 25,750 26,050 24,650 25,450 : : SD 2/ : Sep : 21,950 23,150 22,050 23,250 : Oct : 22,700 23,100 21,900 22,700 : Nov : 22,700 23,050 21,700 : Final : 22,700 23,050 21,700 : : WI : Sep : 26,150 25,600 26,550 26,750 27,800 : Oct : 26,300 27,150 26,350 26,850 27,700 : Nov : 26,250 26,800 26,350 27,200 : Final : 26,250 26,800 26,350 27,200 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Field counts began in 2004. 2/ Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 1996. Soybeans: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 11 soybean producing States during 2007. Randomly selected plots in soybean fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet, Selected States, 2003-2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR 1/ 2/: Sep : : Oct : 2,446 1,796 1,645 1,621 : Nov : 2,483 1,823 1,655 : Final : 2,511 1,824 1,667 : : IL : Sep : 1,800 2,070 1,973 2,035 1,923 : Oct : 1,606 1,923 1,820 1,890 1,796 : Nov : 1,634 1,943 1,858 1,923 : Final : 1,634 1,947 1,858 1,923 : : IN : Sep : 1,786 1,909 1,855 1,927 1,725 : Oct : 1,692 1,866 1,790 1,893 1,660 : Nov : 1,582 1,917 1,899 1,909 : Final : 1,582 1,917 1,899 1,909 : : IA : Sep : 1,749 1,772 1,969 1,846 1,935 : Oct : 1,629 1,731 1,935 1,758 1,917 : Nov : 1,647 1,737 1,968 1,760 : Final : 1,647 1,741 1,970 1,760 : : KS 3/ : Sep : 1,482 1,490 1,564 1,727 : Oct : 1,588 1,431 1,509 1,524 : Nov : 1,639 1,547 1,581 : Final : 1,636 1,546 1,581 : : MN : Sep : 1,582 1,487 1,684 1,612 1,676 : Oct : 1,417 1,406 1,598 1,586 1,589 : Nov : 1,440 1,446 1,640 1,568 : Final : 1,440 1,435 1,640 1,568 : : MO : Sep : 1,144 1,798 1,458 1,631 1,521 : Oct : 1,455 1,943 1,585 1,746 1,579 : Nov : 1,547 1,998 1,679 1,738 : Final : 1,523 2,038 1,652 1,735 : : NE : Sep : 1,727 1,835 1,862 1,740 1,950 : Oct : 1,642 1,836 1,903 1,801 2,042 : Nov : 1,636 1,895 1,920 1,784 : Final : 1,636 1,895 1,920 1,766 : : ND 3/ : Sep : 1,114 1,526 1,169 1,352 : Oct : 1,148 1,471 1,241 1,445 : Nov : 1,243 1,496 1,260 : Final : 1,242 1,496 1,260 : : OH : Sep : 1,791 1,808 2,040 1,857 1,900 : Oct : 1,898 1,873 1,890 1,895 1,850 : Nov : 1,764 1,840 1,974 1,835 : Final : 1,752 1,837 1,981 1,866 : : SD 3/ : Sep : 1,248 1,634 1,318 1,554 : Oct : 1,332 1,617 1,345 1,492 : Nov : 1,302 1,605 1,316 : Final : 1,308 1,556 1,312 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ September data not available due to plant immaturity. 2/ Field counts began in 2004 after being discontinued in 2002. 3/ Field counts began in 2004. Cotton: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in 7 cotton producing States during 2007. Randomly selected plots in cotton fields were visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, Selected States, 2003-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2003 : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep : 798 864 811 859 790 : Oct : 755 771 728 814 839 : Nov : 744 753 733 849 : Dec : 744 754 733 824 : Final : 744 754 733 824 : : CA : Sep : 973 954 993 911 1,084 : Oct : 945 952 926 869 1,115 : Nov : 893 945 1,002 926 : Dec : 893 948 1,011 933 : Final : 893 948 1,011 933 : : GA : Sep : 559 646 667 648 616 : Oct : 646 690 689 675 570 : Nov : 643 686 767 774 : Dec : 665 687 767 790 : Final : 665 687 767 790 : : LA : Sep : 681 635 746 760 796 : Oct : 778 707 768 781 808 : Nov : 775 691 775 786 : Dec : 775 691 775 785 : Final : 775 691 775 785 : : MS : Sep : 837 808 818 700 819 : Oct : 824 789 729 699 745 : Nov : 811 780 724 695 : Dec : 808 780 722 695 : Final : 808 780 722 695 : : NC : Sep : 628 758 799 637 527 : Oct : 630 719 693 641 601 : Nov : 632 732 721 671 : Dec : 632 733 721 671 : Final : 632 733 721 671 : : TX : Sep : 465 639 620 530 602 : Oct : 431 672 516 477 538 : Nov : 429 593 586 533 : Dec : 435 624 585 544 : Final : 435 624 585 544 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs per 40 feet of row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls. September Weather Summary Locally heavy rain and high-elevation snow showers arrived in the West, especially during the second half of September, boosting topsoil moisture but having little effect on long-term drought. Prior to the arrival of cool, showery weather, Northwestern winter wheat planting and other Western fieldwork advanced with few interruptions. Meanwhile, wet weather lingered on the southern Great Plains, hampering early-season winter wheat planting. Elsewhere across the Nation's mid-section, wheat planting and summer crop harvesting proceeded smoothly, while in Montana late-month rainfall provided beneficial moisture for newly planted winter grains. Farther east, warm, mostly dry weather across the majority of the Corn Belt contrasted with frequent showers in the upper Midwest. Corn harvesting advanced at a faster-than-normal pace in nearly all Midwestern production areas, while rapid maturation of the soybean crop allowed harvesting to accelerate toward month's end. Mostly dry weather also prevailed in the East, except for rainy conditions in parts of the southern Atlantic region. In fact, little rain fell during the second half of September east of a line from central Texas to Lake Michigan. In the drought-stricken Southeast, dry weather favored harvest activities but increased concerns about a lack of moisture for pastures and fall-sown crops. A mid-month cold snap brought an unusually early freeze to parts of the upper Midwest and interrupted an otherwise warm pattern from the Plains to the East Coast. However, most Midwestern summer crops were mature enough to withstand the freeze, which affected areas as far south as Iowa on September 15. Monthly temperatures generally averaged 2 to 6 degrees F above normal across the eastern one-third of the U.S., except for near-normal readings in the southern Atlantic region. Meanwhile, warm weather prevailed in the West during the first half of the month, followed by markedly cooler conditions thereafter. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 4 degrees F below normal at several locations in southern California. September Agricultural Summary Temperatures, on average, were higher than normal nearly nationwide, with the exception of the Pacific Coast States, Idaho, and Nevada, where temperatures were up to 4 degrees F cooler than average. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall accumulations were received in the western Corn Belt, Delta, and southern Great Plains, as well as in Florida, where up to 12 inches of rain drenched the southern and eastern portion of the State. Light to moderate moisture fell across the rest of the country, with minimal accumulations in California, the High Plains, and the northern Atlantic Coastal Plains where drought conditions continued due to below normal precipitation. By September 16, nearly all of the Nation's corn acreage had reached the dent stage. At 96 percent, progress was the same as the previous year but 6 points ahead of the average pace. Although development in some States remained slightly behind last year, all were at or ahead of normal during the month. During the first two weeks of the month, the crop rapidly matured, especially in the Corn Belt, where progress was well ahead of normal. Maturity was delayed slightly in Colorado and Ohio early in the month, but by September 30, all States were ahead of normal. By the end of the month, 91 percent of the crop had matured, 5 and 10 points ahead of the previous year and normal, respectively. Progress was more than 20 points ahead of the 5-year average in Michigan and Minnesota for most of the month and was only slightly less rapid in the rest of the northern and central Corn Belt. Nationally, corn harvest began ahead of schedule, with 8 percent of the acreage harvested by September 9. Early in the month, the harvest pace in Tennessee was 44 points ahead of normal while in Illinois, Kentucky, and North Carolina harvest led the average by at least 10 points. Throughout the month, harvest continued without major delays and progressed at or ahead of normal in all States. By month's end, corn harvest, at 31 percent complete, was ahead of the 5-year average by 11 points. By September 23, most of the Nation's sorghum acreage had colored, with progress at 96 percent. Coloring remained more than 10 points ahead of normal throughout the month. Slight delays in development were evident in Missouri and in Oklahoma, while the crop in all other States progressed at or beyond normal. Sorghum, at 35 percent mature early in the month, was 2 points ahead of normal nationwide but was delayed in Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma. By the end of the month, 74 percent of the crop was mature, 15 points ahead of last year and 13 points ahead of normal, with only the Missouri crop trailing its average pace. Close to one-fourth of the sorghum crop was harvested by September 9, ahead of normal by 3 points, mostly due to the rapid progress of Arkansas and Texas. As harvest season progressed, producers remained well ahead of schedule in Texas, but slowed to the normal pace in Arkansas. However, harvest gained momentum in Illinois after mid-month, while progress in Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and Oklahoma continued to lag behind the 5-year average. Six percent of the Nation's wheat crop had been planted by September 9, four points behind normal. All States, except those in the Pacific Northwest, were behind average early in the month. These western States remained mostly ahead of average throughout the month. Elsewhere delays continued, especially in the central and southern Great Plains, where progress was 13 to 25 points behind normal at month's end. Nationwide, 42 percent of the crop had been planted by the end of September, 7 points behind last year and 9 points behind the 5-year average. Due to the planting delays, emergence of the crop was also behind schedule. By September 23, six percent had emerged, 2 points behind last year and 5 points behind the normal pace. During the last week of the month, the crop rapidly emerged in Colorado, Nebraska, Oregon, South Dakota, and Washington. By month's end, 16 percent was emerged nationally, 5 points behind last year and 7 points behind average, with emergence in many States still lagging behind normal. By September 9, rice harvest was gaining momentum with 35 percent of the crop harvested, ahead of last year and normal by 2 and 5 points, respectively. By the end of the month, with nearly three-quarters of the crop reaped, progress was behind last year by 1 point but ahead of normal by 2 points. Rice producers in Mississippi and Missouri were ahead of normal by about two weeks and progress was near normal elsewhere. Harvest in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas was nearly complete by month's end. Soybean fields rapidly developed, with 32 percent of acreage at or beyond the leaf-dropping stage by September 9, seven points ahead of last year and normal. Rapid development continued through the next two weeks as the crop advanced more than 20 points each week, then slowed to an advance of 12 points during the last week of the month. By the end of September, 88 percent of the acreage had begun dropping leaves, 3 points ahead of last year and 4 points ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest started around mid-month, with 4 percent of the Nation's acreage reaped, 1 point behind the previous year and 5-year average. By the end of the month, harvest was 29 percent complete, ahead of last year by 11 points and ahead of the 5-year average pace by 5 points. Producers were well ahead of normal in Illinois, Minnesota, and Tennessee, and near normal in all States except Kansas, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, and South Dakota, where harvest progress was between 5 and 11 points behind normal. Sunflower harvest was just getting underway by September 30, with 5 percent of the crop harvested, on par with the previous year but 1 point behind the 5-year average. Harvest progress in Colorado was well ahead of last year and normal by 28 and 27 points, respectively. Kansas and South Dakota producers were lagging behind normal. Peanut harvest began around the middle of September in most States with most activity occurring in Florida. At that time, harvest had not begun in the Southwest limiting nationwide progress to 2 percent, 4 points behind normal. By September 23, producers in all peanut-producing States had begun reaping the crop. As of the end of the month, 9 percent of the peanut crop had been harvested, 1 and 13 points behind last year and the 5-year average, respectively. More than one-fifth of the crop had been harvested in Florida, South Carolina, and Virginia but progress was well behind normal throughout the Southeast. By the week ending September 9, forty-eight percent of the Nation's cotton had opened bolls, 4 points behind last year but 4 points ahead of the 5-year average. Conditions allowed the acreage in Missouri, North Carolina, and Tennessee to progress well ahead of the average pace. By September 30, just over three-quarters of the acreage had open bolls but development was behind last year and average by 5 and 1 percent, respectively. Harvest began slowly at the beginning of September with producers in the lower Delta, Georgia, and Texas behind their average pace. After mid-month, growers in Mississippi advanced ahead of the normal pace but the other States continued to lag behind schedule. By September 30, twenty-one percent of the crop was harvested nationwide, 2 points behind last year but 3 points ahead of normal. Progress was well ahead of normal in the Delta, except in Louisiana where growers were 24 points behind. By mid-month, sugarbeet harvest was underway with 6 percent of the acreage harvested, 1 point behind last year but 3 points ahead of normal. At month's end, 15 percent of the crop had been harvested, 1 and 2 points ahead of last year and the 5-year average, respectively. All states were at or ahead of normal, with Michigan, at 15 percent harvested, ahead by almost 2 weeks. Corn for grain: Acreage updates were made in several States based on administrative data bringing total corn planted acres to 93.6 million acres, up 1 percent from June and 20 percent higher than 2006. Area harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 86.1 million acres, up 1 percent from September and 22 percent higher than last year. If realized, this would be the most corn acres harvested for grain since 1933. The October 1 corn objective yield data indicated number of ears per acre for the combined 10 objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin) is the highest on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2004. Record high ear counts were recorded in all objective yield States except Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota. The corn crop continued to develop ahead of normal under generally warmer than normal conditions during September. By September 16, ninety-six percent of the Nation's corn acreage had reached the dent stage, unchanged from last year but 6 points ahead of the average pace. Although development in some States remained slightly behind last year, all were at or ahead of normal during the month. During the first two weeks of September, the crop rapidly matured, especially in the Corn Belt, where progress was well ahead of normal. Maturity was delayed slightly in Colorado and Ohio early in the month, but by September 30, all States were ahead of normal. By the end of the month, 91 percent of the crop had matured, 5 points ahead of last year and 10 points ahead of normal. Progress was more than 20 points ahead of the 5-year average in Michigan and Minnesota for most of the month and was only slightly less rapid in the rest of the northern and central Corn Belt. Corn harvest began ahead of schedule, with 8 percent of the acreage harvested by September 9. Early in the month, the harvest pace in Tennessee was 44 points ahead of normal while in Illinois, Kentucky, and North Carolina harvest led the average by at least 10 points. Throughout the month, harvest continued without major delays and progressed at or ahead of normal in all States. By month's end, corn harvest, at 31 percent complete, was ahead of the 5-year average by 11 points. Sorghum: Production is forecast at 501 million bushels, up 1 percent from last month and up 81 percent from last year. Based on administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States. Planted area was updated to 7.70 million acres, down less than 1 percent from June but up 18 percent from 2006. Area for harvest as grain is forecast at 6.70 million acres, up 4,000 acres from last month and up 36 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, the yield is forecast at 74.8 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushel from September and up 18.6 bushels from last year. If realized, this would be the highest yield on record. As of September 30, harvest had begun in all of the top 11 producing States. In these States, the sorghum crop was 74 percent mature, 15 points ahead of last year and 13 points ahead of the normal pace. Harvest, at 37 percent complete, was 3 points ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Harvest was 98 percent complete in Arkansas and Louisiana. Wet weather hampered harvest activities in the Great Plains, where Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma trailed behind the normal pace. Yields are either increasing or unchanged from September in all but 1 of the major sorghum producing States. The exception is Illinois, down 4 bushels from last month. In Kansas and Texas, the top 2 producing States, sorghum yields are expected to remain unchanged from September. If realized, the sorghum yield in Texas would be the highest on record and the yield in Kansas would be 1.0 bushel below the record high. As of September 30, crop condition was rated 64 percent good to excellent compared with 32 percent last year. Rice: Production is forecast at 197 million cwt, up 3 percent from the September forecast and up 2 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 2.73 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 3 percent from last year. As of October 1, the U.S. yield is forecast at 7,215 pounds per acre, up 191 pounds per acre from last month and up 347 pounds from last year. If realized, this will surpass the previous record high yield of 6,988 pounds per acre set in 2004. Record high yields are expected in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. In Missouri, the expected yield would equal the record high set in 2004. By the end of September, rice harvest in Louisiana and Texas was virtually complete at 96 and 99 percent, respectively. California, Mississippi, and Missouri were ahead of their respective 5-year averages at month's end. In Arkansas, harvest was at 75 percent complete as of September 30, slightly behind the 5-year average. Soybeans: Updates to planted acreage were made in several States based on administrative data. Planted area was updated to 63.7 million acres, a decrease of less than 1 percent from the June forecast and down 16 percent from 2006. Area for harvest is forecast at 62.8 million acres, down less than 1 percent from September and down 16 percent from last year. Record high yields are forecast in Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, and South Dakota along with a record tying yield in North Dakota. The October 1 objective yield data for the combined seven major soybean producing States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio) indicate a slightly lower pod count compared with last year. Pod counts are up from last year in Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska, but down from last year in the other four major producing States. As of September 30, eighty-eight percent of the acreage was dropping leaves or beyond, 3 points ahead of last year's pace and 4 points ahead of the 5-year average. Fifty-seven percent of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, 1 percentage point above the rating at the beginning of September but 5 points below the same week in 2006. Crop conditions improved or were unchanged from the beginning of September in the Corn Belt, the central Great Plains, and the Delta States, with the exception of Louisiana. The only other States to show a decline in crop conditions during September were the Dakotas and North Carolina. As of September 30, soybean harvest was progressing ahead of normal with 29 percent harvested, compared with the 5-year average of 24 percent. Sunflower: The first production forecast for 2007 is 2.89 billion pounds, up 35 percent from 2006 but down 28 percent from 2005. Area planted, at 2.08 million acres, is up 11 percent from the June estimate and up 6 percent from last year. Sunflower growers expect to harvest 1.97 million acres, up 12 percent from June and up 11 percent from the 2006 acreage. The October yield forecast, at 1,468 pounds, is 257 pounds more than last year. As of October 1, higher yields are expected in five of the seven major sunflower-producing States, with only Minnesota and Nebraska farmers expecting lower yields compared with last year. Conditions were generally good across most of the Great Plains, as adequate topsoil moisture during the growing season contributed to improved yields. In North Dakota, the yield is forecast at 1,462 pounds per acre, up 166 pounds from the 2006 yield. As of September 30, seventy-nine percent of the sunflower crop in North Dakota was rated as good to excellent, compared with only 39 percent at the same time last year. By the end of September, harvest progress in Kansas and South Dakota was lagging behind last year's pace and the 5-year average, while harvest in Colorado and North Dakota was ahead of the 5-year average. Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.42 billion pounds, down 1 percent from last year's crop but up 3 percent from last month. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.19 million acres, unchanged from September but down 2 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 2,873 pounds per acre, up 70 pounds from last month and up 10 pounds from 2006. Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina) is expected to total 2.44 billion pounds, up 3 percent from September but down 3 percent from last year's level. Expected acreage for harvest, at 866,000, is unchanged from September but down 7 percent from 2006. Yields in the region are expected to average 2,819 pounds per acre, 75 pounds above last month and 109 pounds above 2006. As of September 30, peanut harvest was 12 percent complete in Alabama, 25 percent complete in Florida, and 5 percent complete in Georgia. Alabama and Georgia lagged their 5-year averages by at least 17 percentage points, while Florida lagged its 5-year average by 10 points. Peanut harvest in South Carolina, at 21 percent complete, was closer to normal but still lagged its 5-year average by 4 points. Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 263 million pounds, up slightly from September but down 19 percent from 2006. Expected acreage for harvest, at 113,000, is unchanged from September but up 12 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2,326 pounds per acre, up 7 pounds from last month but down 874 pounds from 2006. As of September 30, peanut harvest was 12 percent complete in North Carolina, which was equal to the average, and 20 percent complete in Virginia, 9 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Southwest peanut production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 715 million pounds, up 3 percent from last month and up 15 percent from 2006. The expected acreage for harvest in the region totals 211,000, unchanged from September but up 18 percent from the previous year. Yields are expected to average 3,390 pounds per acre for the region, up 88 pounds from September but down 77 pounds from last year's level. On September 30, peanut harvest in Oklahoma and Texas was just under way with 9 percent and 2 percent complete, respectively. Canola: The first production forecast for 2007 is 1.50 billion pounds, up 8 percent from 2006. Area planted, at 1.18 million acres, is up 2 percent from the June estimate and up 13 percent from last year. Canola farmers expect to harvest 1.14 million acres, up 2 percent from June and up 12 percent from 2006. The October yield forecast, at 1,312 pounds per acre, is 54 pounds below last year's yield. North Dakota's yield, at 1,310 pounds per acre, is down 60 pounds from last year. Soil moisture was mostly adequate during the growing season in North Dakota and harvest was nearly complete by mid-September, three weeks ahead of normal. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested area, at 10.3 million acres, is unchanged from last month but down 17 percent from last year. American-Pima harvested area is also unchanged from last month but down 11 percent from last year, at 289,000 acres. In the Southeastern States, defoliation of the crop was underway throughout the region. In Alabama, the crop is developing ahead of normal. Harvest got underway by mid-September ahead of the 5-year average but condition is rated mostly poor to very poor. In Georgia, harvest began by the end of September and was behind the 5-year average. In the Carolinas and Virginia, harvest was progressing ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Objective yield measurements in Georgia show bolls per acre to be the lowest since 2002, but boll weight is the third heaviest in the last five years. During the month of September, rainfall throughout the southern Delta delayed harvest. After the rain, producers waited for bolls to dry out before resuming harvest, which limited progress. In Louisiana, as of September 30, only 15 percent of the crop had been harvested, well behind last year's 56 percent and the 5-year average of 39 percent. In the northern Delta, harvest was in full swing where Missouri and Tennessee producers are well ahead of normal. Objective yield counts show the highest number of bolls per acre in the last ten years for both Arkansas and Louisiana. In Mississippi, the objective yield survey indicates that the boll weight is the second lowest in the last five years. In Texas, hot weather and timely rains helped advance crop development. Producers reported plants were full with minimal boll shed. After a late start due to excessive rains during the summer, harvest in South Texas was in full swing by the middle of September. In the High Plains, defoliation of early planted fields began during the later part of the month with a few fields harvested by the end of the month. Objective yield measurements in Texas show bolls per acre and boll weight to be the highest in the last ten years. In Oklahoma, beneficial rains were received during the first part of September and 78 percent of the crop was rated in good to excellent condition at month's end. Only limited defoliation had begun at the end of the month. California upland cotton received ideal weather throughout the month of September allowing the crop to develop ahead of normal. By late September, cooler temperatures allowed for defoliation to begin. In Arizona, harvest of the crop was underway by the first of the month, slightly ahead of normal. Objective yield data show California bolls per acre to be the highest in the last 10 years and boll weight to be third heaviest in the last five years. American-Pima production is forecast at 775,500 bales, down 2 percent from September but up 1 percent from last year. The U.S. yield forecast is 1,288 pounds per acre, down 29 pounds from last month but up 152 pounds from last year. In California, where a record high production is forecast, harvest was underway by late September. Ginnings totaled 1,560,650 running bales prior to October 1, compared with 2,572,150 running bales ginned prior to the same date last year and 2,314,450 running bales in 2005. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Production of dry hay is forecast at 72.3 million tons, up 3 percent from the August forecast and up 1 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 3.37 tons per acre, up 0.11 ton from August and up 0.02 ton from 2006. Harvested area is forecast at 21.5 million acres, unchanged from August but slightly above the previous year's acreage. Yields are forecast to either remain unchanged or increase from the previous forecast across most States in the Great Plains, Corn Belt, Ohio Valley, and Great Basin. Adequate rainfall during September resulted in improved yield expectations. The largest yield increase is forecast in South Dakota and Texas, both up 0.6 ton from the previous forecast. Record level yields are forecast in California, Nevada, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Texas. The largest yield decrease is forecast in Kentucky, down 0.4 ton from the previous forecast as a result of continuous dry conditions Statewide. Other Hay: Production is forecast at 75.6 million tons, up slightly from the August forecast and up 8 percent from 2006. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 1.87 tons, the same as the August forecast but up 0.09 ton from last year. Harvested area, at 40.3 million acres, is unchanged from August but up 2 percent from the previous year. Compared with the previous forecast, growers in the southern and central Great Plains, Gulf Coast, Michigan, and New York are expecting higher yields. Hay fields in Texas and Oklahoma benefitted from abundant rainfall and producers are expecting record level yields. Yields are forecast to remain unchanged from August in most of the Corn Belt but declined from the last forecast in the Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains, middle Atlantic Coast, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. Pennsylvania showed the largest decrease in yield from the previous forecast, down 1.2 tons. Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is forecast at 25.3 million cwt for 2007, up 6 percent from the August forecast and 4 percent above last year. Harvested acreage is forecast at 1.46 million acres, 2 percent above the August forecast but 5 percent below last year. The average U.S. yield is forecast at 1,727 pounds per acre, an increase of 78 pounds from the August forecast and 150 pounds above last year. Planted area is estimated at 1.53 million acres, an increase of 1 percent from the August forecast but 6 percent below 2006. In North Dakota, dry bean crop conditions were rated 65 percent good to excellent as of September 16. Harvest began in early September. If realized, both yield, at 1,650 pounds, and production, at 10.9 million cwt, would be record highs. In Michigan, 80 percent of the crop was harvested by October 1. Some fields suffered poor pollination and pod set due to drought conditions in July and early August; however, timely rains fell during the remainder of the growing season. In Idaho, dry conditions in the northern part of the State resulted in lower yields. Harvest was underway in California where yields were expected to be above 2006. Growing conditions in Colorado were hot and dry this summer with irrigation restrictions along the Front Range and South Platte River leading to reduced planted acreage and yields. In Wyoming, conditions were rated 93 percent fair to good as of September 23 and harvest was proceeding ahead of the 5-year average. Winter Potatoes: Production for 2007 is 2.47 million cwt, unchanged from the April estimate but 45 percent below 2006. Florida winter potatoes were combined with spring potatoes for the 2007 crop. The California production is 21 percent below 2006. Area for harvest in California, at 11,500 acres, is unchanged from April but down 4 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 215 cwt per acre is unchanged from April but 45 cwt below a year ago. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production is forecast at 710 million pounds, down 1 percent from the September forecast and 2 percent below 2006. Area for harvest is forecast at 355,070 acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but 5 percent above last year. Yields for 2007 are expected to average 2,000 pounds per acre, 23 pounds lower than the September forecast and 144 pounds below a year ago. Average yields are expected to decrease from the September forecast in all tobacco States except Missouri, North Carolina, and South Carolina where average yields remained unchanged. Flue-cured production is expected to total 456 million pounds, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but 2 percent above 2006. Area for harvest is forecast at 225,000 acres in 2007, unchanged from the September forecast but 6 percent above a year ago. Yields are forecast to average 2,024 pounds per acre, 9 pounds below the last forecast and down 71 pounds from a year ago. Yields in all flue-cured States were unchanged from the September 1 forecast except Georgia where average yields decreased 100 pounds. Temperatures in Georgia continued to be slightly above normal and rainfall below average in September. Burley production is expected to total 192 million pounds, down 3 percent from the September forecast and 12 percent below a year ago. Burley growers plan to harvest 105,200 acres, unchanged from last month's forecast but up 2 percent from 2006. Yields are expected to average 1,826 pounds per acre, 52 pounds below the September forecast and down 269 pounds from a year ago. The production forecast for Kentucky, the largest burley producing State, is 142 million pounds, 3 percent below the previous forecast and down 7 percent from last year. Growers in Kentucky expect yields to average 1,850 pounds per acre, down 50 pounds from the September 1 forecast and 250 pounds below 2006. Yields also declined in Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia while yields in all other burley States remained unchanged from the previous forecast. Hot, dry weather continued in September in the majority of burley tobacco States. This limited tobacco growth and resulted in poor curing conditions. Fire-cured production is expected to total 37.6 million pounds, unchanged from the previous forecast but 5 percent below the previous year. Growers plan to harvest 13,300 acres, unchanged from the September forecast but up 12 percent from 2006. Yields are expected to average 2,826 pounds per acre, unchanged from last month but down 498 pounds from a year ago. Southern Maryland Belt tobacco production in Pennsylvania is expected to total 2.31 million pounds, unchanged from last month's forecast but 11 percent above last year. A total of 1,100 acres is expected to be harvested this year, unchanged from both last month and a year ago. The average yield, at 2,100 pounds per acre, is unchanged from the September forecast but 200 pounds above 2006. Dark air-cured tobacco is expected to total 11.8 million pounds, down 4 percent from last month and 10 percent below a year ago. Growers plan to harvest 4,650 acres, unchanged from the September forecast but 8 percent above 2006. Yields are expected to average 2,544 pounds per acre, 100 pounds below last month's forecast and down 515 pounds from last year. All cigar production is forecast to total 10.6 million pounds, 5 percent below the September forecast but up 26 percent from 2006. Growers of cigar type tobacco plan to harvest 5,820 acres, unchanged from last month but 18 percent above a year ago. Overall, yields are expected to average 1,828 pounds per acre, 88 pounds below the previous forecast but up 129 pounds from a year ago. Sugarbeets: Production is forecast at 30.4 million tons, 1 percent above the September forecast but 11 percent below last year's production of 34.1 million tons. Growers expect to harvest 1.24 million acres, unchanged from September but down 5 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 24.5 tons per acre, up 0.3 ton from last month but down 1.6 tons from the 2006 record high yield. Yields are at or below last year's level in Idaho, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota. Harvested acreage is forecast to be the lowest since 2001. Although yield is down from last year's record high, it will be the second highest, if realized. On September 30, harvest was 15 percent complete in the four major producing States, 2 points ahead of normal. Harvest was progressing at the normal pace in the Red River Valley but was ahead of schedule in Idaho and Michigan. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2007 is forecast at 30.4 million tons, unchanged from the September forecast but up 3 percent from 2006. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 883,500 acres for sugar and seed during the 2007 crop year, unchanged from September but 14,600 acres less than last year. Yield is forecast at 34.4 tons per acre, the same as last month but up 1.5 tons from last year. Harvested acreage in Florida is down slightly compared with last year but the yield is up 1 ton, resulting in a production forecast 2 percent above last year. The crop in Louisiana follows the same trend with harvested acreage down 15,000 acres, yield up 1.7 tons, and production up 3 percent from 2006. Yields are forecast above last year in all producing States except Texas, where the yield is expected to decline 0.3 ton. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2007-08 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.49 million tons, 5 percent lower than 2006-07 but 21 percent higher than the 2005-06 final utilization of 1.23 million tons. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 25.0 million boxes (1.06 million tons), 8 percent below last season but up 30 percent from the 2005-06 hurricane-reduced final utilization of 19.3 million boxes (820,000 tons). The white grapefruit forecast is 9.00 million boxes (383,000 tons), down 3 percent from 2006-07 but 38 percent above the 2005-06 final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), is 11 percent lower than last season but 25 percent above 2005-06 utilization. Current fruit sizes were below the minimum of the last eight years and were projected to be the smallest at harvest since the 2001-02 season. Bearing white seedless tree numbers have declined by 7 percent from last season and tree numbers for colored grapefruit have dropped by 2 percent. The October 1 Texas grapefruit forecast is 6.80 million boxes (272,000 tons), down 4 percent from last season but 31 percent higher than 2005-06 final utilization. The California grapefruit forecast of 4.50 million boxes (151,000 tons), is 13 percent higher than the 2006-07 season but 25 percent lower than 2005-06. Grapefruit for the 2007-08 season continued to develop normally as harvest of the 2006-07 crop wound down. Arizona's forecast, at 200,000 boxes (7,000 tons), is double the production from each of the last two seasons. Lemons: The initial forecast for the 2007-08 U.S. lemon crop is 684,000 tons, down 3 percent from 2006-07 and 30 percent lower than 2005-06. California production is forecast at 16.5 million boxes (627,000 tons), 3 percent above last season but 25 percent lower than 2005-06. Harvest started in the desert growing region where the winter freeze had a negative impact on production. The production forecast for Arizona is 1.50 million boxes, 40 percent lower than last season and 61 percent below 2005-06. The freeze in January resulted in lower fruit set and smaller sized fruit. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons), 4 percent above 2006-07 but down 7 percent from 2005-06 final utilized production. Bearing trees have decreased by 12 percent from last season. The current fruit size is the smallest since 1993-94 but the fruit set is up considerably from 2006-07. Tangerines: The initial 2007-08 U.S. tangerine forecast is 433,000 tons, up 28 percent from the 2006-07 season and 4 percent higher than 2005-06 final utilization. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 5.10 million boxes (242,000 tons), 11 percent higher than 2006-07 but 7 percent lower than the 2005-06 utilization of 5.50 million boxes. While fruit size was below normal, fruit set has been well above last season. California's tangerine forecast is 4.70 million boxes (176,000 tons), up 62 percent from last season's freeze-damaged crop and 31 percent above 2005-06. Harvest of Satsuma tangerines has begun in parts of the State. Arizona's forecast, at 400,000 boxes (15,000 tons), is 33 percent higher than last season but 27 percent below 2005-06. Florida Citrus: All citrus producing areas received less than average amounts of rainfall for the month of September. Cooler mornings in conjunction with late afternoon to early evening rainstorms during the third and fourth weeks of September were a welcome relief to producers in many areas. High temperatures reached the low to mid 90s during the day and night lows were in the upper 60s toward the end of the month. Although average fruit per tree was higher across all citrus, average fruit size was smaller. Maturity levels were slightly behind normal as of October 1. Some splitting of fruit was noticed late in September due to dry weather followed by some moderately heavy days of rain. Harvest began on Fallglo tangerines, Ambersweet and Navel oranges, and grapefruit. Caretakers were mowing, applying herbicide, fertilizing, pulling vines, and cleaning groves. Scouting for canker and greening continued. Texas Citrus: The citrus crop was reported to have good quality fruit with good size. Blemishing caused by pests appeared to be average. Maturity was slightly behind normal in the Rio Grande Valley due to the rainy summer. Arizona Citrus: Citrus groves and fruit quality were reported to be in good condition with fruit size being relatively good. The freeze of January 2007 mainly impacted the lemon crop for the upcoming season. Lemon harvest started in September. California Citrus: Some growers were treating to control fungus, insects and weeds, irrigating, topping trees, and applying nutrients. Foliar nutrients were being applied in some orange groves. The Navel orange crop was looking good with reports of heavy volumes in orchards. Old crop Valencia oranges were nearing the season's end. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Grape growers continued to fertilize, irrigate, cultivate, and spray to control weeds, diseases, and insect pests in vineyards across the State. Raisin grape growers were breaking canes on dried-on-the-vine varieties or laying grapes on trays to dry. Autumn Royal, Champagne, Crimson Seedless, Christmas Rose, Niabell Concord, Kyoho, Red Globe, Summer Royal, and Thompson Seedless varieties were being harvested for fresh use. Wine and juice grape harvest continued for Alicante Bouchet, Grenache, Merlot, Muscat, Pinot Noir, Thompson Seedless, and Zinfandel varieties. Stone fruit cultural practices such as irrigation, fall pruning, and treatments to control weeds and insect pests continued throughout the month. Jujube and fig harvests continued. Peach varieties harvested were Autumn Flame, Prima Gattie, Sweet September, September Snow, September Sun, Snow Fall, Snow Gem, and Snow Magic. Nectarine varieties that continued to be harvested were Arctic Mist, Arctic Pride, Autumn Blaze, Late Red Jim, and Summer Flare. Plum harvest continued with Angeleno and October Gem varieties being picked and packed. Black Kat, Flavorich, and Holiday pluot harvest continued. Pomegranate harvest continued for Early Wonderful, Wonderful, and Early Foothill varieties. Granny Smith and Gala apple varieties were being picked. Quince harvest was nearing completion by the end of the month and pear harvest was ongoing. A few fall strawberries were being picked. Olive fruit continued to size and some orchards were sprayed for olive fruit fly. Almond harvest continued and groves were being treated for insects and weeds. Pistachio harvest was underway throughout the month. Pesticides for codling moths, husk flies, and mites were being applied in walnut groves. Cultural activities in nut orchards, such as fertilization and irrigation, were underway during the month. Apples: The final U.S. apple production forecast for the 2007 crop year is 9.25 billion pounds, slightly less than the August forecast and down 7 percent from last year. Production decreases from August were noted in both Michigan and New York while Virginia showed an increase in production. North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Washington, and West Virginia remained unchanged from the August forecast. Production in the Western States (AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, UT, and WA) is forecast at 5.99 billion pounds, unchanged from August but down 4 percent from 2006. Washington production, which makes up 58 percent of the U.S. total, is forecast at 5.40 billion pounds, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 4 percent from last year. Warm days and cool nights during the late summer and early fall resulted in good fruit color. Harvest has progressed fairly smoothly, with the labor supply not presenting any major problems. All other Western States were carried forward from the August forecast. Production in the Eastern States (CT, GA, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, NC, PA, RI, SC, VT, VA, and WV) is forecast at 2.29 billion pounds, down 1 percent from the August forecast and down 6 percent from last year. The apple forecast in New York, at 1.26 billion pounds, is 2 percent less than the August forecast but up 1 percent from 2006. Dry weather in the Lake Ontario growing region resulted in smaller fruit, while the Hudson Valley and Lake Champlain regions had good growing and harvest seasons. As of October 1, harvest was 58 percent complete. Pennsylvania's forecast, at 455 million pounds, is unchanged from August but 3 percent less than last year. Although trees carried a good crop load, dry weather conditions across the State negatively affected fruit size. Fruit finish and coloring have been excellent this year. Virginia's forecast of 210 million pounds is up 5 percent from the August forecast but 5 percent lower than 2006. Scattered showers across the apple growing region helped increase fruit size from August. Harvest conditions have been excellent and harvest was nearly one-third complete. West Virginia forecast an apple crop of 80.0 million pounds, unchanged from August but down 11 percent from last year. Dry weather across the State reduced fruit size and harvest was 56 percent complete. The apple forecast in North Carolina of 50.0 million pounds remained unchanged from August but is down 71 percent from 2006. Drought across the State has been persistent. As of October 1, harvest was 71 percent complete. All other Eastern States were carried forward from the August forecast. Production in the Central States (IL, IN, IA, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, TN, and WI) is forecast at 969 million pounds, a decrease of 1 percent from August and 21 percent below 2006. Michigan's production forecast is 780 million pounds, down 1 percent from August and 8 percent below 2006. A hot, dry growing season resulted in below normal fruit size for some varieties. Yields are lower than normal in the Grand Rapids, southwest, and eastern regions of the State, but are higher in the northwest and west-central areas. Harvest is ahead of schedule for most varieties. All other Central States were carried forward from the August forecast. Pecans: The October 1, 2007 forecast of pecan utilized production is 320 million pounds (in-shell basis), up 55 percent from last year's crop and 14 percent above 2005. Improved varieties are expected to produce 260 million pounds or 81 percent of the total, while native and seedling varieties, at 59.2 million pounds, make up the remaining 19 percent. The 2007 crop is expected to be larger than last year's in most producing States mainly because it is a high year in the alternate bearing pattern typical of pecans. Production is lower than last year in Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri due to a severe Easter freeze, and in Louisiana, which is in a down-cycle production season. Georgia's forecast, at 100 million pounds, would make the State the leading pecan producer. The crop is over twice as large as last season's and up 25 percent from 2005. Pecan trees in Georgia had a very large nut set in 2007. Hot, dry weather limited nut size in dryland orchards and limited disease and insect damage. The Easter freeze damaged some trees in the eastern part of the State, but the major growing area in the southwest escaped most of the damage. New Mexico's production forecast of 71.0 million pounds would rank the State second in pecans for 2007. The forecast represents a 54 percent increase from last year and is up 9 percent from 2 years ago. October 1 pecan conditions were mostly good to excellent despite some yield loss in the eastern part of the state due to an early freeze. The Texas forecast is 70.0 million pounds, 49 percent more than the 2006 crop and 8 percent more than 2005. This season's pecan crop is extremely heavy in most areas. There have been numerous reports of limbs breaking from the intense load on the trees. The only limiting factor was the loss of some trees to drought or freeze last year. Production in Arizona is forecast at 23.0 million pounds, up 64 percent from last year and 5 percent above the 2005 crop. Oklahoma production, at 20.0 million pounds, is up 18 percent from 2006, but 5 percent below 2 years ago. The size of the production increase was limited by the Easter weekend freeze that caused extensive damage in the northern half of the State. Tree branches in southern Oklahoma were breaking from the weight of their nut loads. The Louisiana forecast of 12.0 million pounds is down 43 percent from last year, mainly due to an off-cycle season, but is still over twice that of 2005. Alabama's production is forecast at 11.0 million pounds, up 83 percent from 2006 and nearly 3 times 2005. Two hurricane seasons followed by very low production last year created a situation where a majority of trees in the State set a very heavy crop in 2007. Grapes: U.S. grape production is forecast at 6.99 million tons, virtually unchanged from the August forecast but 9 percent above 2006. California leads the U.S. in grape production with 88 percent of the total. Washington and New York are the next largest producing States, with 6 percent and 3 percent, respectively. California's all grape forecast, at 6.18 million tons, is unchanged from August but 7 percent above last year. Washington growers expect to produce 385,000 tons, 1 percent above the previous forecast and up 22 percent from last year. New York's forecast, at 176,000 tons, is down 2 percent from August but 14 percent above a year ago. California's wine type grape production is expected to total 3.20 million tons, unchanged from the August forecast but up 1 percent from 2006. Wine type grapes account for 52 percent of California's grape crop. The wine type grape harvest progressed well until rain and cool temperatures hit the State. The unfavorable weather caused some growers to delay harvest until sugar content returned to more adequate levels. California's raisin type grape production is forecast at 2.20 million tons, 36 percent of California's total grape crop. The production forecast for raisin type grape varieties is unchanged from the previous forecast but 18 percent above a year ago. Production of table type grapes is forecast at 780,000 tons, unchanged from the August forecast but 7 percent above last year. Late table type grape varieties were being harvested for fresh use. The major varieties picked included Crimson Seedless, Red Globe, and Autumn Royal. Overall, the quality of grapes was reported to be extremely good this year, although berry size is not as large as in some seasons. Washington's production is forecast at 385,000 tons, up 1 percent from the August forecast and 22 percent above 2006. If realized this will be the second largest grape crop on record, surpassed only by the 2005 crop of 415,000 tons. The juice type grape forecast, at 260,000 tons, is up 4 percent from the previous forecast and 33 percent above last year. Spring and summer growing conditions have been favorable this year with only minor frost damage reported. Wine type grape production is forecast at 125,000 tons, down 5 percent from August but 4 percent above a year ago. An increase in bearing acreage and favorable growing conditions left wine grape growers in Washington expecting a record high crop. New York's grape production is forecast at 176,000 tons, 2 percent below the August forecast but up 14 percent from a year ago. New York growers are expecting an average crop. Dry, warm weather contributed to quicker ripening and higher sugar solids which increased berry quality. However, the drought-like conditions left some vines and berries stressed, weak, or dead. Overall, berries were reported to be average to below average in size. Michigan's grape production is forecast at 100,000 tons, up 5 percent from the August forecast, 208 percent above last year's frost-devastated crop, but 3 percent below 2005. The warm, dry conditions this season were ideal for ripening and allowed the grape crop to progress ahead of normal. While the extremely dry conditions had a negative effect on berry size, quality was reported to be good to excellent. Pennsylvania's grape production is forecast at 80,000 tons, 4 percent below the August forecast and down 2 percent from a year ago. Yields are expected to be fair this year. The dry, hot weather negatively affected berry size in some vineyards. However, Brix levels were reported to be high and grape quality excellent thus far. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.41 million pounds for August 2007, up 1 percent from the previous month and 9 percent higher than the comparable month a year ago. Total area in crop for August is estimated at 2,135 acres, 23 percent higher than July 2007 but 1 percent less than August 2006. Harvested area totaled 1,395 acres, 72 percent higher than July of this year and up 5 percent from the same month last year. August weather was characterized as mostly sunny combined with occasional showers which benefitted orchard growth and development. Irrigation was stepped up to replenish soil moisture levels. Newly planted acreage made favorable progress. Prunes (Dried Plums): California's 2007 prune production forecast is 90,000 dried tons, down 5 percent from the June 1 forecast and 50 percent lower than last year's crop of 180,000 tons. The 2007 prune crop experienced an extremely warm period during bloom. As a result of poor pollination, fruit set was depressed. Many growers in Yuba and Sutter Counties experienced extremely low yields. Production was also hindered due to stressed orchards recovering from the previous year's high production. Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecast Field Crop Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between September 24 and October 5 to gather information on expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, plant counts are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears, bolls, or pods and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet, and personal interviewers. Over 15,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields. Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the October 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produced about 73 percent of the U.S. production last season. In August and September 2007, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis, in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Field Crop Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Field Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecasts. Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. Estimates of planted acres for spring planted crops are subject to revision in the August Crop Production report if conditions altered the planting intentions since the mid-year survey. Planted acres may also be revised for cotton, peanuts, and rice in the September Crop Production report each year; spring wheat, Durum wheat, barley, and oats only in the Small Grains Annual report at the end of September; and all other spring planted crops in the October Crop Production report. Revisions to planted acres will only be made when either special survey data or administrative data are available. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last forecast. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the October 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain production forecast is 3.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.1 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 199 million bushels, ranging from 3 million bushels to 624 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times. This does not imply that the October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Root Mean : 20-Year Record of : : Square Error : Differences Between Forecast : :------------------: and Final Estimate : : : :------------------------------------ Crop :Unit : : 90 : Quantity : Years : :Percent: Percent :------------------------------------ : : :Confidence: : : :Below:Above : : : Interval :Average:Smallest:Largest:Final:Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ Million ------ Number : : Corn for Grain :Bu : 3.5 6.1 199 3 624 9 11 Sorghum for Grain :Bu : 6.1 10.6 23 1 105 9 11 Rice :Cwt : 2.7 4.8 4 0 13 11 9 Soybeans for Beans:Bu : 2.3 4.0 43 1 103 9 11 Cotton 1/ :Bales: 4.6 8.0 716 31 1,706 15 5 Dry Edible Beans :Cwt : 3.7 6.5 1 * 3 14 6 Oranges 1/ :Tons : 9.2 15.9 641 18 2,043 7 13 Oranges 1/ 2/ :Tons : 4.5 8.0 423 18 887 7 8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Less than 1 million. 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. 2/ Excluding freeze and hurricane seasons. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Jeff Geuder, Chief...................................................(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head............................................(202) 720-2127 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings.......................(202) 720-5944 Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye.....................................(202) 720-8068 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed......................(202) 720-9526 Greg Thessen - Peanuts, Rice..................................(202) 720-2127 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds..........(202) 720-7369 King Whetstone - Hay, Oats, Sorghum...........................(202) 690-3234 Dawn Keen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops.................(202) 720-7621 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Lance Honig, Head.............................................(202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco........(202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.........................(202) 720-2157 Faye Propsom - Citrus, Tropical Fruits........................(202) 720-4288 Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts..............(202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas........................(202) 720-3250 Faye Propsom - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes..................................(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops............................................(360) 902-1940 Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes..........(202) 720-4285 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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USDA Data Users' Meeting October 29, 2007 Crowne Plaza Chicago O'Hare Rosemont, Illinois (847) 671-6350 The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for data users. The purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs and seek comments and input from data users. Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be included in the meeting. For registration details or additional information for the Data Users' Meeting, see the NASS homepage at www.nass.usda.gov/forum/ or contact Marjorie Taylor (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at marjorie_taylor@nass.usda.gov. This Data Users' Meeting precedes an Industry Outlook meeting that will be held at the same location on October 30, 2007. The Outlook meeting brings together analysts from various commodity sectors to discuss the outlook situation. For registration details or additional information for the Industry Outlook Meeting see the Livestock and Marketing Information Center (LMIC) homepage at www.lmic.info or contact Jim Robb at (720) 544-2941 or at robb@lmic.info.