Cr Pr 2-2 (1-08) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 11, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Up 2 Percent From December The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2007-08 season is 10.0 million tons, up 2 percent from the December 1 forecast and 32 percent higher than the 2006-07 final utilization of 7.59 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 168 million boxes (7.56 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 30 percent higher than last season's final utilization of 129 million boxes. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 81.0 million boxes (3.65 million tons), unchanged from December 1 but 23 percent above last season. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 87.0 million boxes (3.92 million tons), remains the same as the December 1 forecast but is 37 percent higher than 2006-07. Florida citrus regions experienced relatively warm, dry weather, so frequent irrigation was needed to keep the trees and fruit in good condition. The all orange forecast in California, at 63.0 million boxes (2.36 million tons), is 9 percent higher than October's forecast and 40 percent above last season. The navel forecast is 48.0 million boxes (1.80 million tons), 12 percent above the October forecast and 41 percent higher than 2006-07's final utilization. California's Valencia orange forecast is 15.0 million boxes (563,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 36 percent above last season. The Texas all orange forecast is 1.79 million boxes (76,000 tons), down 1 percent from October and 10 percent lower than last season. The early and midseason forecast is 1.40 million boxes (60,000 tons), down 3 percent from October and 13 percent less than 2006-07. Texas Valencia oranges are forecast at 385,000 boxes (16,000 tons), 10 percent higher than the December forecast and 1 percent above last season. The Arizona all orange forecast is 350,000 boxes (13,000 tons), 17 percent above both October and the previous season. Navel utilization in Arizona is forecast at 250,000 boxes (9,000 tons), 25 percent higher than both the October forecast and last season. Valencia oranges in Arizona are forecast at 100,000 boxes (4,000 tons), unchanged from both October and last season. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2007-08 season remains at 1.60 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, 3 percent lower than last season's final yield of 1.65 gallons per box. The early-mid portion is projected at 1.53 gallons per box, 2 percent below last season's final of 1.56 gallons. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.68 gallons per box, 5 percent lower than last season's final of 1.77 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on January 11, 2008. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Floyd D. Gaibler Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Grains & Hay Hay Stocks. . . . . . . . . . 6 Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit. . . . . . . . . . 5 Lemons. . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Oranges . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Tangelos. . . . . . . . . . . 5 Tangerines. . . . . . . . . . 5 Temples . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops Potatoes. . . . . . . . . . . 4 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . .15 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . 7 Information Contacts . . . . . .19 Reliability of Production Data in this Report18 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . .13 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . .14 Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :---------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Acres ------ --- Cwt --- ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : Winter : CA : 11.5 11.0 11.5 11.0 215 250 3,120 2,473 2,750 FL 1/ : 1,375 : Total : 11.5 11.0 11.5 11.0 215 250 4,495 2,473 2,750 : Spring 2/ : AZ : 4.0 4.0 280 1,170 1,120 CA : 15.5 15.5 395 6,044 6,123 FL 1/ : 27.8 27.2 287 6,441 7,807 Hastings: 16.5 16.2 285 4,731 4,617 Other FL: 11.3 11.0 290 1,710 3,190 NC : 16.0 14.5 186 3,255 2,700 TX : 9.7 9.2 320 2,856 2,944 : Total : 73.0 70.4 294 19,766 20,694 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Winter potatoes combined with spring potatoes beginning in 2007. 2/ 2007 revised. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Oct : 2,140 2,105 1,320 1,535 2,185 3,340 Nov : 2,140 2,100 1,315 1,365 2,605 3,075 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2005-06, 2006-07 and Forecasted January 1, 2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2007-08 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2007-08 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 250 200 250 9 8 9 CA : 47,000 34,000 48,000 1,763 1,275 1,800 FL 4/ : 75,000 65,600 81,000 3,375 2,952 3,645 TX : 1,400 1,600 1,400 60 68 60 US : 123,650 101,400 130,650 5,207 4,303 5,514 Valencia : AZ : 200 100 100 8 4 4 CA : 14,000 11,000 15,000 525 413 563 FL : 72,700 63,400 87,000 3,272 2,853 3,915 TX : 200 380 385 9 16 16 US : 87,100 74,880 102,485 3,814 3,286 4,498 All : AZ : 450 300 350 17 12 13 CA : 61,000 45,000 63,000 2,288 1,688 2,363 FL : 147,700 129,000 168,000 6,647 5,805 7,560 TX : 1,600 1,980 1,785 69 84 76 US : 210,750 176,280 233,135 9,021 7,589 10,012 Temples 4/ : FL : 700 32 Grapefruit : White : FL : 6,500 9,300 8,000 276 395 340 Colored : FL : 12,800 17,900 17,000 544 761 723 All : AZ : 100 100 150 3 3 5 CA : 6,000 4,000 5,000 201 134 168 FL : 19,300 27,200 25,000 820 1,156 1,063 TX : 5,200 7,100 6,600 208 284 264 US : 30,600 38,400 36,750 1,232 1,577 1,500 Tangerines : AZ 5/ : 550 300 400 21 11 15 CA 5/ : 3,600 2,900 5,100 135 109 191 FL : 5,500 4,600 4,800 261 219 228 US : 9,650 7,800 10,300 417 339 434 Lemons : AZ : 3,800 2,500 1,500 144 95 57 CA : 22,000 16,000 17,000 836 608 646 US : 25,800 18,500 18,500 980 703 703 Tangelos : FL : 1,400 1,250 1,300 63 56 59 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 5/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States, December 1 and May 1, 2005-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dec 1 : May 1 State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 1/ : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : AL : 1,575 1,065 1,318 264 144 AZ : 350 350 260 40 35 AR : 2,000 2,140 2,700 210 160 CA : 1,840 1,785 1,890 192 202 CO : 2,365 2,130 2,400 460 290 CT : 55 65 67 9 12 DE : 18 18 8 4 4 FL : 380 380 492 60 21 GA : 1,350 878 1,013 198 82 ID : 2,260 2,575 2,400 375 320 IL : 1,260 1,690 1,100 324 325 IN : 1,498 1,475 973 207 198 IA : 4,200 3,900 3,500 1,000 684 KS : 5,000 4,390 5,465 800 600 KY : 4,390 4,550 3,312 635 600 LA : 596 690 820 81 57 ME : 138 140 160 25 27 MD : 390 452 240 74 60 MA : 76 90 76 17 13 MI : 1,852 2,385 1,700 395 350 MN : 4,117 4,200 3,140 1,150 740 MS : 1,567 1,186 1,459 210 78 MO : 6,315 5,415 6,662 873 625 MT : 5,440 4,105 4,500 1,463 760 NE : 4,585 3,680 4,280 1,070 863 NV : 788 879 767 209 202 NH : 53 60 45 8 12 NJ : 112 97 68 8 10 NM : 545 470 580 133 105 NY : 1,650 1,451 1,674 285 326 NC : 1,245 1,280 682 282 120 ND : 5,580 4,375 4,990 1,806 609 OH : 2,360 2,155 1,653 363 356 OK : 3,900 3,275 6,100 550 400 OR : 1,790 1,840 1,700 210 180 PA : 1,700 3,485 1,750 410 520 RI : 10 8 6 1 3 SC : 565 468 350 120 65 SD : 7,935 5,120 7,816 2,140 1,150 TN : 3,625 3,103 1,930 742 425 TX : 8,000 7,550 13,400 896 885 UT : 1,370 1,410 1,130 266 185 VT : 257 273 233 57 38 VA : 2,585 2,190 1,705 730 268 WA : 1,475 1,339 1,385 250 240 WV : 984 816 720 214 136 WI : 3,183 3,577 3,467 1,135 1,308 WY : 1,876 1,600 1,900 394 220 : US : 105,205 96,555 103,986 21,345 15,013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,020.0 3,508.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 93,600.0 86,542.0 Corn for Silage : 6,071.0 Hay, All : 61,625.0 Alfalfa : 21,670.0 All Other : 39,955.0 Oats : 3,760.0 1,505.0 Proso Millet : 570.0 515.0 Rice : 2,761.0 2,748.0 Rye : 1,376.0 289.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 7,718.0 6,805.0 Sorghum for Silage : 399.0 Wheat, All : 60,433.0 51,011.0 Winter : 44,987.0 46,610.0 35,952.0 Durum : 2,149.0 2,112.0 Other Spring : 13,297.0 12,947.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,183.0 1,163.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 354.0 349.0 Mustard Seed : 56.0 52.8 Peanuts : 1,230.0 1,195.0 Rapeseed : 1.5 1.0 Safflower : 180.0 172.0 Soybeans for Beans : 63,631.0 62,820.0 Sunflower : 2,068.0 2,009.5 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 10,830.3 10,492.2 Upland : 10,538.0 10,204.0 Amer-Pima : 292.3 288.2 Sugarbeets : 1,269.8 1,246.9 Sugarcane : 883.5 Tobacco : 356.0 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 29.0 11.0 Dry Edible Beans : 1,526.9 1,478.7 Dry Edible Peas : 847.5 811.3 Lentils : 303.0 295.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.4 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 Hops : 30.9 Peppermint Oil : 73.3 Potatoes, All : 1,148.8 1,129.0 Winter : 11.5 11.0 11.5 11.0 Spring : 73.0 70.4 Summer : 53.7 50.4 Fall : 1,010.6 996.7 Spearmint Oil : 19.6 Sweet Potatoes : 100.6 97.5 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 60.4 211,825 Corn for Grain :" : 151.1 13,073,893 Corn for Silage :Tons : 17.5 106,328 Hay, All :" : 2.44 150,304 Alfalfa :" : 3.35 72,575 All Other :" : 1.95 77,729 Oats :Bu : 60.9 91,599 Proso Millet :" : 32.3 16,615 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 7,185 197,456 Rye :Bu : 27.4 7,914 Sorghum for Grain :" : 74.2 504,993 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 15.6 6,206 Wheat, All :Bu : 40.5 2,066,722 Winter :" : 42.2 1,515,989 Durum :" : 33.9 71,686 Other Spring :" : 37.0 479,047 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,250 1,453,830 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 6,596.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 16.9 5,904 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 603 31,826 Peanuts :" : 3,130 3,740,650 Rapeseed :" : 1,300 1,300 Safflower :" : 1,215 208,995 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 41.2 2,585,207 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,437 2,888,555 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 871 19,033.0 Upland 2/ :" : 857 18,208.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,374 825.0 Sugarbeets :Tons : 25.6 31,912 Sugarcane :" : 34.9 30,834 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,187 778,624 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,155 127 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,716 25,371 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,960 15,903 Lentils 2/ :" : 1,155 3,408 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 541 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,170 7,500 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 35,000 2,800 Hops :" : 1,949 60,253.1 Peppermint Oil :" : 93 6,794 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 398 449,156 Winter :" : 215 250 2,473 2,750 Spring :" : 294 20,694 Summer :" : 335 16,907 Fall :" : 410 409,082 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 121 2,379 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 189 18,452 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :----------------------------------------- : : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit :Tons : 1,232 1,577 1,500 Lemons :" : 980 703 703 Oranges :" : 9,021 7,589 10,012 Tangelos (FL) :" : 63 56 59 Tangerines :" : 417 339 434 Temples (FL) 3/ :" : 32 : : Noncitrus : : Apples :1,000 Lbs: 9,931.7 9,254.7 Apricots :Tons : 44.5 86.6 Bananas (HI) :Lbs : 20,000.0 Grapes :Tons : 6,417.2 6,990.5 Olives (CA) :" : 23.5 110.0 Papayas (HI) :Lbs : 28,700.0 Peaches :Tons : 1,010.1 1,026.9 Pears :" : 842.0 878.1 Prunes, Dried (CA) :" : 180.0 90.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) :" : 21.5 13.7 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled) :Lbs : 1,115,000 1,330,000 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) :Tons : 43.0 33.0 Pecans (in-shell) :Lbs : 206,300 333,605 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) :Tons : 346.0 320.0 Maple Syrup :Gals : 1,449 1,258 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season. 2/ Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,626,850 1,419,650 Corn for Grain 2/ :37,878,980 35,022,680 Corn for Silage : 2,456,870 Hay, All 3/ : 24,939,020 Alfalfa : 8,769,630 All Other : 16,169,390 Oats : 1,521,630 609,060 Proso Millet : 230,670 208,420 Rice : 1,117,350 1,112,090 Rye : 556,850 116,960 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,123,400 2,753,920 Sorghum for Silage : 161,470 Wheat, All 3/ :24,456,630 20,643,640 Winter :18,205,790 18,862,600 14,549,410 Durum : 869,680 854,710 Other Spring : 5,381,160 5,239,520 : Oilseeds : Canola : 478,750 470,650 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 143,260 141,240 Mustard Seed : 22,660 21,370 Peanuts : 497,770 483,600 Rapeseed : 610 400 Safflower : 72,840 69,610 Soybeans for Beans :25,750,830 25,422,630 Sunflower : 836,900 813,220 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 4,382,910 4,246,090 Upland : 4,264,620 4,129,460 Amer-Pima : 118,290 116,630 Sugarbeets : 513,880 504,610 Sugarcane : 357,540 Tobacco : 144,070 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 11,740 4,450 Dry Edible Beans : 617,920 598,420 Dry Edible Peas : 342,970 328,320 Lentils : 122,620 119,380 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,590 Ginger Root (HI) : 30 Hops : 12,510 Peppermint Oil : 29,660 Potatoes, All 3/ : 464,910 456,900 Winter : 4,650 4,450 4,650 4,450 Spring : 29,540 28,490 Summer : 21,730 20,400 Fall : 408,980 403,350 Spearmint Oil : 7,930 Sweet Potatoes : 40,710 39,460 Taro (HI) 5/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.25 4,611,940 Corn for Grain : 9.48 332,092,180 Corn for Silage : 39.26 96,459,140 Hay, All 2/ : 5.47 136,353,500 Alfalfa : 7.51 65,838,930 All Other : 4.36 70,514,560 Oats : 2.18 1,329,560 Proso Millet : 1.81 376,820 Rice : 8.05 8,956,450 Rye : 1.72 201,020 Sorghum for Grain : 4.66 12,827,410 Sorghum for Silage : 34.87 5,629,990 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.72 56,246,960 Winter : 2.84 41,258,460 Durum : 2.28 1,950,970 Other Spring : 2.49 13,037,520 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.40 659,450 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,983,790 Flaxseed : 1.06 149,970 Mustard Seed : 0.68 14,440 Peanuts : 3.51 1,696,730 Rapeseed : 1.46 590 Safflower : 1.36 94,800 Soybeans for Beans : 2.77 70,357,800 Sunflower : 1.61 1,310,230 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.98 4,143,950 Upland : 0.96 3,964,330 Amer-Pima : 1.54 179,620 Sugarbeets : 57.37 28,950,080 Sugarcane : 78.23 27,972,130 Tobacco : 2.45 353,180 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.29 5,760 Dry Edible Beans : 1.92 1,150,810 Dry Edible Peas : 2.20 721,350 Lentils : 1.29 154,580 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 24,540 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.31 3,400 Ginger Root (HI) : 39.23 1,270 Hops : 2.18 27,330 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,080 Potatoes, All 2/ : 44.59 20,373,370 Winter : 24.10 28.02 112,170 124,740 Spring : 32.95 938,660 Summer : 37.60 766,890 Fall : 46.00 18,555,650 Spearmint Oil : 0.14 1,080 Sweet Potatoes : 21.21 836,970 Taro (HI) 3/ : 1,810 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :-------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,117,650 1,430,630 1,360,780 Lemons : 889,040 637,750 637,750 Oranges : 8,183,710 6,884,620 9,082,730 Tangelos (FL) : 57,150 50,800 53,520 Tangerines : 378,300 307,540 393,720 Temples (FL) 3/ : 29,030 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,504,940 4,197,860 Apricots : 40,350 78,530 Bananas (HI) : 9,070 Grapes : 5,821,540 6,341,630 Olives (CA) : 21,320 99,790 Papayas (HI) : 13,020 Peaches : 916,370 931,630 Pears : 763,880 796,550 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 163,290 81,650 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 19,500 12,430 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 505,760 603,280 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) : 39,010 29,940 Pecans (in-shell) : 93,580 151,320 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) : 313,890 290,300 Maple Syrup : 7,240 6,290 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season. 2/ Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. December Weather Summary For a La Ni¤a winter, the jet stream took an uncharacteristic dip into the Southwest, helping to generate a broad area of stormy weather from the Four Corners States into the Midwest and Northeast. Only a few areas namely the northern Plains and the southern half of Texas completely missed out on the stormy regime. The jet stream's prevailing position, aligned from the Southwest to the Northeast, not only helped to govern the primary storm track but also dictated the separation between warm air in the Southeast and very cold conditions across the central Plains and much of the West. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 6 degrees F above normal in several Southeastern locations, but ranged from 6 to 10 degrees F below normal across parts of the Intermountain West. Heavy rain and melting snow triggered major flooding in the Pacific Northwest early in the month. Storminess shifted southward thereafter, providing much-needed snowfall in the Sierra Nevada, the Great Basin, and parts of the Southwest. Precipitation was particularly heavy from the Four Corners region into southern Wyoming, improving water-supply prospects in many Western river basins. Farther east, livestock on the central and southern Plains endured a difficult month due to snow, ice, and mud. Heavy precipitation fell as far north as Nebraska, but mostly dry weather prevailed on the northern High Plains. Despite the wintry weather and variety of conditions, wheat continued to overwinter well, except for the portion of the crop (mainly on the central and southern High Plains) that was poorly established prior to dormancy. Meanwhile, much of the Midwest and Northeast also contended with periods of cold weather and frequent snow and ice accumulations, stressing livestock but maintaining abundant soil moisture reserves. Elsewhere, the South experienced December warmth, although dry weather in southern Texas contrasted with heavy showers and drought relief in the southern Atlantic States. Despite the late-year rain, lingering Southeastern drought effects included low lake levels and the slow recovery of pastures. December Agricultural Summary Extremely heavy December precipitation accumulations occurred along the Pacific Coast. Up to 16 inches were evident in northeastern California, as well as in eastern Oregon and Washington. Heavy precipitation also fell in the northern Rocky Mountains with more scattered moderate accumulations evident farther south along the Rocky Mountains. Farther east on the Great Plains, only light scattered precipitation fell in northern and southern parts of the region. Four inches or more of rain fell from East Texas, northeastward to the Great Lakes and eastward to the Atlantic Coast with some areas in the Southeast and Ohio Valley receiving as much as 8 inches. Temperatures in the West averaged below normal, except in parts of the Pacific Northwest and extreme northern Rocky Mountains, where temperatures ranged from near-normal to 4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Throughout the Great Plains, temperatures were below normal, except in the western Dakotas, in most of Texas, and in the southeast corner of New Mexico. Temperatures were above normal from central Texas eastward to the Southeast, and northward through the Delta, eastern Corn Belt, and Mid-Atlantic Coast States. Near-normal temperatures prevailed over the Great Lakes and New England. In the Pacific Northwest, most agricultural activity involved greenery and Christmas tree sales for the holidays. In California, strawberries were growing well in Fresno County, and planting of blueberry bushes and stone fruit were ongoing. California sugarbeets were developing at various stages while vegetable harvest and chemical applications continued. Citrus growers were treating fungus, insects, and weeds and some were tree topping. In the northern Rocky Mountains, snow cover was mostly adequate. On the northern Great Plains, snow cover was reported somewhat inadequate in the Dakotas possibly threatening winter wheat condition, while central Great Plains winter wheat was in mostly good and excellent condition. Along the southern Great Plains, winter wheat was rated 32 percent good and excellent in Oklahoma. In Texas, cotton harvest continued during the month and was complete in the Panhandle, Edwards Plateau, and Trans-Pecos regions. Texas grain sorghum harvest was complete in the northern High Plains and citrus, pecan, and vegetable harvest continued. In the Corn Belt, producers were hauling corn and soybeans to market and winter wheat was in mostly good to excellent condition. Where temperatures were dropping to threatening levels, adequate snow cover remained, keeping the wheat protected. Farmers were spreading fertilizer and manure and making fence repairs as weather permitted. In the Southeast, Florida sugarcane and cotton harvest continued and peanut harvest was complete early in the month. Vegetable planting, harvest, and irrigation continued with some rain interruptions to field activities around mid-month. Fruit and vegetable marketing and citrus harvest and packing was evident. Georgia cotton harvest and wheat planting was ongoing while rains helped wheat stands emerge and spurred growth. Winter Potatoes: California's winter potato production for 2008 is forecast at 2.75 million cwt, up 11 percent from a year ago but 12 percent below 2006. Florida's winter potato estimates were combined with their spring potato estimates in 2007, which leaves California as the only winter potato estimating State. Harvested area in California is forecast at 11,000 acres, down 4 percent from 2007, and average yield is expected to be 250 cwt per acre, 35 cwt above last year. Growers reported that crop quality was very good and yields had improved from last year. Spring Potatoes: Production for 2007 is estimated at 20.7 million cwt, virtually unchanged from the May forecast but 5 percent above 2006. Harvested area totaled 70,400 acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 4 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 294 cwt per acre is the same as the May forecast but 1 cwt above 2006. Florida production is estimated at 7.81 million cwt, up 1 percent from the May 1 forecast and 21 percent above the 2006 production. Florida's winter potatoes were combined with spring potatoes in 2007. In California, production increased 1 percent from last year due to a 1 percent increase in harvested acres. Cold weather early in the season delayed the crop and some growers did not begin to harvest until June. Production in Texas increased 3 percent from 2006 with a record high yield of 320 cwt per acre. The crop benefitted from good growing conditions and high levels of moisture. Growers in North Carolina produced 17 percent fewer spring potatoes than in the previous year. Dry conditions reduced yield 24 cwt per acre from 2006. Production in Arizona declined 4 percent from last year due to a 20 cwt per acre drop in average yield. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 3.08 million pounds for November 2007, down 8 percent from October but 18 percent higher than the comparable month a year ago. Total area in crop for November is estimated at 2,100 acres, down slightly from last month and 2 percent less than November 2006. Harvested area totaled 1,365 acres, 11 percent lower than October 2007 but up 4 percent from the same month the previous year. November saw sunny skies mixed with periods of heavy rain and wind. Orchards made fair to good progress during the month and harvest was active. Spraying was stepped up to control disease outbreaks under wet conditions. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2007-08 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.50 million tons, up slightly from the December 1 forecast but 5 percent lower than the previous season. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 25.0 million boxes (1.06 million tons), unchanged from the December forecast but 8 percent below last season. The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 8.00 million boxes (340,000 tons), unchanged from December's forecast but 14 percent below last season's final utilization. Average fruit size is projected to be the smallest on record dating back to the 1968-69 season. The Florida colored grapefruit forecast, at 17.0 million boxes (723,000 tons), is unchanged from the December forecast but 5 percent below the 2006-07 final utilization. The principal grapefruit growing regions experienced dry weather and warm temperatures most of the season. A short cold snap the second week of December helped fruit and trees acclimate for winter. The Texas grapefruit production forecast is 6.60 million boxes (264,000 tons), down 3 percent from October's forecast and 7 percent lower than last season. Grapefruit production in California is forecast at 5.00 million boxes (168,000 tons), up 11 percent from the October forecast and 25 percent above last season. Pummelo and Oroblanco grapefruit varieties were good quality. Arizona grapefruit production is forecast at 150,000 boxes (5,000 tons), down 25 percent from the previous forecast but up 50 percent from last season. Lemons: The forecast for the 2007-08 U.S. lemon crop is 703,000 tons, up 3 percent from the October 1 forecast but unchanged from 2006-07. California's forecast is 17.0 million boxes (646,000 tons), 3 percent above the previous forecast and 6 percent higher than last season. Light picking is ongoing across all growing areas and will increase as the Central Valley gains momentum. Demand has exceeded supply and volumes are expected to remain below average. The forecast for Arizona is 1.50 million boxes, unchanged from the previous forecast but 40 percent lower than last season. The freeze last January resulted in lower fruit set and smaller sized fruit. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons), unchanged from the December 1 forecast but 4 percent above the 2006-07 final utilized production. Harvest of Orlando variety earlier in the season was primarily for fresh market with a transition to processing. Tangerines: The U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 434,000 tons, up 4 percent from the December 1 forecast and 28 percent higher than the final utilization in 2006-07. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.80 million boxes (228,000 tons), unchanged from December's forecast but 4 percent higher than the 2006-07 utilization of 4.60 million boxes. Harvest of Fallglo and Sunburst varieties was nearly complete. The later maturing Honey tangerine experienced a significant size increase which was offset by higher droppage, keeping the forecast unchanged. California's forecast, at 5.10 million boxes, is 9 percent above October's forecast and 76 percent higher than last season. Harvest has been progressing well and the outlook is good for California mandarins. Quality has been good to excellent. Satsuma and Fairchild varieties were still being harvested throughout the State. Clementine harvest was almost complete and Minneola tangelo harvest was just beginning. Arizona's forecast, at 400,000 boxes (15,000 tons), is unchanged from October but 33 percent above last season. Some scar was evident. Florida Citrus: Temperatures were warm in citrus producing areas throughout December. Some temperature variations were recorded during the second week as colder weather made its way further south. Temperatures were in the mid 80s with high humidity before dropping to the mid 30s and low 40s in all areas. Northern areas recorded the lowest temperatures. Rainfall ranged from less than one-half inch in the central and southern citrus regions to over two and one-half inches on the east coast. Citrus trees were reported to be in good to excellent condition. All major packinghouses were open during December and ran at full capacity. Packing for fundraising programs was in full swing the first half of the month. Harvested varieties included Fallglo and Sunburst tangerines, early, Ambersweet, and Navel oranges, grapefruit, and some tangelos. All processing plants were open and running fruit. The plants were accepting field run or direct to processor fruit and packinghouse eliminations. Fruit sizes were reported on the small side for all varieties, but fruit sets were higher than average. Grove maintenance included mowing, spraying, fertilizing, and young tree care. Arizona Citrus: Citrus groves were reported to be in good condition with fruit quality and size being relatively good. The freeze of January 2007 mainly impacted the lemon crop for the upcoming season. Thrips, scar, and rough texture were evident in a few areas. Texas Citrus: Grapefruit harvest was nearly complete and the fruit looked good. The freeze in December had a slight impact on production. By mid-December, citrus shipments were above average. California Citrus: Navel harvest started slowly in early December, then picked up as the month progressed. Navel fruit maturity and sugar content held steady throughout the month. Mandarin, lemon, and pummelo harvests were ongoing. Some citrus growers were topping trees, applying foliar nutrients, and applying treatments to control fungus, weeds, and insects. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Grape harvest was completed and both grape and stone fruit growers were pruning, cultivating, and treating to control weeds and insects. A frost in mid-December accelerated leaf drop in some fruit orchards. New blueberry bushes were planted. Strawberry harvest continued throughout the month although rains in late December delayed harvest and affected strawberry fruit quality in some regions. Quince, jujubes, and persimmons were still being harvested. Olive tree pruning continued throughout the month. Almond stockpile hulling was slowing down by mid-December. Pruning, fertilization, and spraying for weeds continued in nut groves. Hay Stocks on Farms: Stocks of all hay stored on farms totaled 104 million tons on December 1, 2007, up 8 percent from a year ago. Disappearance of hay from May-December 2007 totaled 61.3 million tons, compared with 67.1 million tons for the same period a year ago. Compared with December 1, 2006, hay stocks increased in most of the Great Plains, eastern Rocky Mountain, Delta, and Southeast States. Good growing conditions prevailed in many of these States, resulting in higher hay production. Meanwhile, stocks decreased compared with last year throughout the upper Mississippi Valley, central Corn Belt, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Mid Atlantic, and the western Rocky Mountain regions. These areas experienced drier than normal to drought conditions resulting in lower hay production. Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 5.0 percent. However, if you exclude the 5 abnormal production years (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 5.0 percent, or 3.5 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.7 percent, or 6.2 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 406,000 tons (383,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 106,000 tons to 1.13 million tons (106,000 tons to 638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 10 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Jeff Geuder, Chief...............................................(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head........................................(202) 720-2127 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings...................(202) 720-5944 Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye.................................(202) 720-8068 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed..................(202) 720-9526 Anthony Prillaman - Peanuts, Rice.........................(202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds......(202) 720-7369 Don Gephart - Hay, Oats, Sorghum..........................(202) 690-3234 Dawn Keen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops.............(202) 720-7621 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Lance Honig, Head.........................................(202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco....(202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.....................(202) 720-2157 Faye Propsom - Citrus, Tropical Fruits....................(202) 720-5412 Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts..........(202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas....................(202) 720-3250 Mike Jacobsen - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes................(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops(360) 902-1940 Lance Honig - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes.........(202) 720-2127 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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