Cr Pr 2-2 (2-08) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released February 8, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Down 1 Percent From January The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2007-08 season is 9.92 million tons, down 1 percent from the January 1 forecast but 31 percent higher than the 2006-07 final utilization of 7.59 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 166 million boxes (7.47 million tons), is down 1 percent from the previous forecast but 29 percent higher than last season's final utilization of 129 million boxes. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 81.0 million boxes (3.65 million tons), unchanged from January 1 but 23 percent above last season. Harvest for the early and midseason varieties peaked in the third and fourth weeks of January. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 85.0 million boxes (3.83 million tons), is 2 percent lower than the last forecast but 34 percent higher than 2006-07. Average fruit sizes for Valencia oranges are very small and are expected to be smaller at harvest than the minimum of the last eight non-hurricane seasons. Florida citrus regions experienced relatively warm weather during January, with average rainfall in the north and less than average rainfall in the central and southern areas. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2007-08 season is 1.62 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up from 1.60 last month, but 2 percent lower than last season's final yield. The early- mid portion remains at 1.53 gallons per box, 2 percent below last season's final of 1.56 gallons per box. The Valencia portion increased to 1.70 gallons per box, 4 percent lower than last season's final of 1.77 gallons per box. All yield projections include the assumption that the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on February 8, 2008. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Charles F. Conner Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas 4 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit 5 Lemons 5 Oranges 5 Tangelos 5 Tangerines 5 Temples 5 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Sugarcane 4 Crop Comments 13 Crop Summary 6 Information Contacts 17 Reliability of Production Data in this Report 16 Weather Maps 12 Weather Summary 13 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2006-2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Tons ---- -- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 382.0 378.0 35.8 36.9 13,676 13,948 HI 2/ : 20.4 20.2 79.1 84.5 1,614 1,707 LA 2/ : 405.0 390.0 27.3 30.0 11,057 11,700 TX 2/ : 39.2 43.5 41.2 41.0 1,615 1,784 : US : 846.6 831.7 33.0 35.0 27,962 29,139 : For Seed : FL : 18.0 18.0 37.2 39.4 670 709 HI 2/ : 1.6 2.3 32.0 30.7 51 71 LA 2/ : 30.0 30.0 27.3 30.0 819 900 TX 2/ : 1.5 1.5 41.0 37.0 62 56 : US : 51.1 51.8 31.4 33.5 1,602 1,736 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 400.0 396.0 35.9 37.0 14,346 14,657 HI 2/ : 22.0 22.5 75.7 79.0 1,665 1,778 LA 2/ : 435.0 420.0 27.3 30.0 11,876 12,600 TX 2/ : 40.7 45.0 41.2 40.9 1,677 1,840 : US : 897.7 883.5 32.9 34.9 29,564 30,875 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2007 Summary." Papayas: Area and Fresh Production, by Month, Hawaii, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Nov : 2,140 2,100 1,315 1,365 2,605 3,075 Dec : 2,350 2,050 1,135 1,255 2,300 2,805 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2005-06, 2006-07 and Forecasted February 1, 2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2007-08 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2007-08 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early, Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 250 200 250 9 8 9 CA 4/ : 47,000 34,000 48,000 1,763 1,275 1,800 FL 5/ : 75,000 65,600 81,000 3,375 2,952 3,645 TX 4/ : 1,400 1,600 1,400 60 68 60 US : 123,650 101,400 130,650 5,207 4,303 5,514 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 200 100 100 8 4 4 CA 4/ : 14,000 11,000 15,000 525 413 563 FL : 72,700 63,400 85,000 3,272 2,853 3,825 TX 4/ : 200 380 385 9 16 16 US : 87,100 74,880 100,485 3,814 3,286 4,408 All : AZ 4/ : 450 300 350 17 12 13 CA 4/ : 61,000 45,000 63,000 2,288 1,688 2,363 FL : 147,700 129,000 166,000 6,647 5,805 7,470 TX 4/ : 1,600 1,980 1,785 69 84 76 US : 210,750 176,280 231,135 9,021 7,589 9,922 Temples 5/ : FL : 700 32 Grapefruit : White : FL : 6,500 9,300 7,500 276 395 319 Colored : FL : 12,800 17,900 17,000 544 761 723 All : AZ 4/ : 100 100 150 3 3 5 CA 4/ : 6,000 4,000 5,000 201 134 168 FL : 19,300 27,200 24,500 820 1,156 1,042 TX 4/ : 5,200 7,100 6,600 208 284 264 US : 30,600 38,400 36,250 1,232 1,577 1,479 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 550 300 400 21 11 15 CA 4/ 6/ : 3,600 2,900 5,100 135 109 191 FL : 5,500 4,600 4,800 261 219 228 US : 9,650 7,800 10,300 417 339 434 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,800 2,500 1,500 144 95 57 CA : 22,000 16,000 17,000 836 608 646 US : 25,800 18,500 18,500 980 703 703 Tangelos : FL : 1,400 1,250 1,300 63 56 59 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5/ Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,020.0 3,508.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 93,600.0 86,542.0 Corn for Silage : 6,071.0 Hay, All : 61,625.0 Alfalfa : 21,670.0 All Other : 39,955.0 Oats : 3,760.0 1,505.0 Proso Millet : 570.0 515.0 Rice : 2,761.0 2,748.0 Rye : 1,376.0 289.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 7,718.0 6,805.0 Sorghum for Silage : 399.0 Wheat, All : 60,433.0 51,011.0 Winter : 44,987.0 46,610.0 35,952.0 Durum : 2,149.0 2,112.0 Other Spring : 13,297.0 12,947.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,183.0 1,163.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 354.0 349.0 Mustard Seed : 56.0 52.8 Peanuts : 1,230.0 1,195.0 Rapeseed : 1.5 1.0 Safflower : 180.0 172.0 Soybeans for Beans : 63,631.0 62,820.0 Sunflower : 2,068.0 2,009.5 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 10,830.3 10,492.2 Upland : 10,538.0 10,204.0 Amer-Pima : 292.3 288.2 Sugarbeets : 1,269.8 1,246.9 Sugarcane : 883.5 Tobacco : 356.0 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 29.0 11.0 Dry Edible Beans : 1,526.9 1,478.7 Dry Edible Peas : 847.5 811.3 Lentils : 303.0 295.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.4 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 Hops : 30.9 Peppermint Oil : 73.3 Potatoes, All : 1,148.8 1,129.0 Winter : 11.5 11.0 11.5 11.0 Spring : 73.0 70.4 Summer : 53.7 50.4 Fall : 1,010.6 996.7 Spearmint Oil : 19.6 Sweet Potatoes : 100.6 97.5 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 60.4 211,825 Corn for Grain :" : 151.1 13,073,893 Corn for Silage :Tons : 17.5 106,328 Hay, All :" : 2.44 150,304 Alfalfa :" : 3.35 72,575 All Other :" : 1.95 77,729 Oats :Bu : 60.9 91,599 Proso Millet :" : 32.3 16,615 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 7,185 197,456 Rye :Bu : 27.4 7,914 Sorghum for Grain :" : 74.2 504,993 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 15.6 6,206 Wheat, All :Bu : 40.5 2,066,722 Winter :" : 42.2 1,515,989 Durum :" : 33.9 71,686 Other Spring :" : 37.0 479,047 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,250 1,453,830 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 6,596.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 16.9 5,904 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 603 31,826 Peanuts :" : 3,130 3,740,650 Rapeseed :" : 1,300 1,300 Safflower :" : 1,215 208,995 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 41.2 2,585,207 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,437 2,888,555 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 871 19,033.0 Upland 2/ :" : 857 18,208.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,374 825.0 Sugarbeets :Tons : 25.6 31,912 Sugarcane :" : 34.9 30,875 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,187 778,624 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,155 127 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,716 25,371 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,960 15,903 Lentils 2/ :" : 1,155 3,408 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 541 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,170 7,500 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 35,000 2,800 Hops :" : 1,949 60,253.1 Peppermint Oil :" : 93 6,794 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 398 449,156 Winter :" : 215 250 2,473 2,750 Spring :" : 294 20,694 Summer :" : 335 16,907 Fall :" : 410 409,082 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 121 2,379 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 189 18,452 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :----------------------------------------- : : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit :Tons : 1,232 1,577 1,479 Lemons :" : 980 703 703 Oranges 3/ :" : 9,021 7,589 9,922 Tangelos (FL) :" : 63 56 59 Tangerines :" : 417 339 434 Temples (FL) 3/ :" : 32 : : Noncitrus : : Apples :1,000 Lbs: 9,851.7 9,342.6 Apricots :Tons : 44.5 88.3 Bananas (HI) :Lbs : 20,000.0 21,000.0 Grapes :Tons : 6,377.2 6,729.7 Olives (CA) :" : 23.5 132.5 Papayas (HI) :Lbs : 28,700.0 33,300.0 Peaches :Tons : 1,010.1 1,112.7 Pears :" : 842.0 881.0 Prunes, Dried (CA) :" : 198.0 81.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) :" : 21.5 11.9 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled) :Lbs : 1,120,000 1,360,000 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) :Tons : 43.0 36.0 Pecans (in-shell) :Lbs : 206,300 349,155 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) :Tons : 346.0 320.0 Maple Syrup :Gals : 1,449 1,258 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season. 2/ Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,626,850 1,419,650 Corn for Grain 2/ :37,878,980 35,022,680 Corn for Silage : 2,456,870 Hay, All 3/ : 24,939,020 Alfalfa : 8,769,630 All Other : 16,169,390 Oats : 1,521,630 609,060 Proso Millet : 230,670 208,420 Rice : 1,117,350 1,112,090 Rye : 556,850 116,960 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,123,400 2,753,920 Sorghum for Silage : 161,470 Wheat, All 3/ :24,456,630 20,643,640 Winter :18,205,790 18,862,600 14,549,410 Durum : 869,680 854,710 Other Spring : 5,381,160 5,239,520 : Oilseeds : Canola : 478,750 470,650 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 143,260 141,240 Mustard Seed : 22,660 21,370 Peanuts : 497,770 483,600 Rapeseed : 610 400 Safflower : 72,840 69,610 Soybeans for Beans :25,750,830 25,422,630 Sunflower : 836,900 813,220 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 4,382,910 4,246,090 Upland : 4,264,620 4,129,460 Amer-Pima : 118,290 116,630 Sugarbeets : 513,880 504,610 Sugarcane : 357,540 Tobacco : 144,070 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 11,740 4,450 Dry Edible Beans : 617,920 598,420 Dry Edible Peas : 342,970 328,320 Lentils : 122,620 119,380 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,590 Ginger Root (HI) : 30 Hops : 12,510 Peppermint Oil : 29,660 Potatoes, All 3/ : 464,910 456,900 Winter : 4,650 4,450 4,650 4,450 Spring : 29,540 28,490 Summer : 21,730 20,400 Fall : 408,980 403,350 Spearmint Oil : 7,930 Sweet Potatoes : 40,710 39,460 Taro (HI) 5/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.25 4,611,940 Corn for Grain : 9.48 332,092,180 Corn for Silage : 39.26 96,459,140 Hay, All 2/ : 5.47 136,353,500 Alfalfa : 7.51 65,838,930 All Other : 4.36 70,514,560 Oats : 2.18 1,329,560 Proso Millet : 1.81 376,820 Rice : 8.05 8,956,450 Rye : 1.72 201,020 Sorghum for Grain : 4.66 12,827,410 Sorghum for Silage : 34.87 5,629,990 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.72 56,246,960 Winter : 2.84 41,258,460 Durum : 2.28 1,950,970 Other Spring : 2.49 13,037,520 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.40 659,450 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,983,790 Flaxseed : 1.06 149,970 Mustard Seed : 0.68 14,440 Peanuts : 3.51 1,696,730 Rapeseed : 1.46 590 Safflower : 1.36 94,800 Soybeans for Beans : 2.77 70,357,800 Sunflower : 1.61 1,310,230 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.98 4,143,950 Upland : 0.96 3,964,330 Amer-Pima : 1.54 179,620 Sugarbeets : 57.37 28,950,080 Sugarcane : 78.34 28,009,330 Tobacco : 2.45 353,180 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.29 5,760 Dry Edible Beans : 1.92 1,150,810 Dry Edible Peas : 2.20 721,350 Lentils : 1.29 154,580 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 24,540 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.31 3,400 Ginger Root (HI) : 39.23 1,270 Hops : 2.18 27,330 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,080 Potatoes, All 2/ : 44.59 20,373,370 Winter : 24.10 28.02 112,170 124,740 Spring : 32.95 938,660 Summer : 37.60 766,890 Fall : 46.00 18,555,650 Spearmint Oil : 0.14 1,080 Sweet Potatoes : 21.21 836,970 Taro (HI) 3/ : 1,810 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :-------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,117,650 1,430,630 1,341,730 Lemons : 889,040 637,750 637,750 Oranges 3/ : 8,183,710 6,884,620 9,001,090 Tangelos (FL) : 57,150 50,800 53,520 Tangerines : 378,300 307,540 393,720 Temples (FL) 3/ : 29,030 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,468,660 4,237,730 Apricots : 40,350 80,070 Bananas (HI) : 9,070 9,530 Grapes : 5,785,250 6,105,080 Olives (CA) : 21,320 120,200 Papayas (HI) : 13,020 15,100 Peaches : 916,370 1,009,460 Pears : 763,880 799,180 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 179,620 73,480 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 19,500 10,800 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 508,020 616,890 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) : 39,010 32,660 Pecans (in-shell) : 93,580 158,370 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) : 313,890 290,300 Maple Syrup : 7,240 6,290 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season. 2/ Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. January Weather Summary Cold weather settled across the West during the second week of January, following a barrage of storms that improved high-elevation snow packs and aided pastures, rangeland, and winter grains. Below-normal temperatures persisted in the West through month=s end, along with periods of additional rain and snow that further improved the Western water-supply situation but caused local flooding. In the Northwest, some winter grains were buried by a substantial snow cover by month=s end. Meanwhile on the Plains, winter wheat continued to fare reasonably well, despite a generally dry month with large temperature fluctuations. For the most part, snow provided some insulation for the Plains= wheat during spells of bitterly cold weather. On the southern High Plains, however, much of the wheat continued to suffer from the effects of poor crop establishment that resulted from autumn dryness. Farther east, Midwestern weather highlights included early-month downpours and flooding in the central Corn Belt. Upper Midwestern livestock were stressed due to deep snow cover and occasional bitter cold. Elsewhere, significant rain fell along and near the Gulf Coast, but near- to below-normal precipitation totals were observed elsewhere across the South. Enough rain fell in the Southeast to benefit pastures and winter grains, although low lake levels and subsoil moisture shortages were symptoms of lingering long-term drought. Cold weather and high winds caused some damage to strawberries, vegetables, and ornamentals across Florida=s peninsula on January 3, but low temperatures were not a significant threat thereafter across the Deep South. January temperatures were persistently below normal but never extremely low in California, where light freezes were noted on as many as 10 days in the San Joaquin Valley. For the month, temperatures ranged from 5 to 10 degrees F below normal in a few high-elevation Western valleys, but averaged at least 5 degrees F above normal in parts of the Northeast. January Agricultural Summary In Arizona, Texas, and California, weed and insect control measures were ongoing. In Arizona, half of the winter wheat crop was planted by January 13 and one-fourth of the alfalfa had been harvested by month's end. California oats were showing good growth as rains benefited small grain development. However, planting preparations in California were slowed due to the wet conditions. Texas small grains remained stressed due to the lack of moisture. Cotton field preparation was underway in the High Plains while cotton harvest neared completion in the Low Plains and the Edwards Plateau by January 28. Corn planting preparations were ongoing in the Blacklands. Georgia producers prepared for spring planting and wheat side dressing while wet fields slowed nitrogen applications during the last week of January. However, rains continued to ease drought conditions and improved the condition of small grains. Sugarcane harvest was ongoing in Florida and Texas during January. California rains delayed activities in some orchards and vineyards of California and storms early in the month caused some fruit crop damage. Throughout the month, fruit and nut growers continued to apply chemicals and prune and replant orchards and groves. In California, producers were digging strawberry, raspberry, and blueberry stock plants. By mid-month, California cherry and almond trees in Kern County were budding and by the end of the month, strawberries were growing well in Tulare and Fresno counties. Pecan harvest continued in Texas and neared completion in the Cross Timbers, Blacklands, and Trans-Pecos regions while pruning of vines and trees by grape and pecan producers was evident in the State. Florida strawberry harvest and packing continued. Harvesting, packing, and marketing was ongoing across all winter vegetable producing States. Herbicide and insecticide treatments were evident while spring planting preparations continued. California experienced some planting delays due to wet fields as fumigations for carrots and tomato crops were evident. Potato planting had begun in Florida and Texas by month's end. Citrus harvest continued in Arizona, California, and Florida as boxes were packed and marketed throughout the month. California experienced slight harvest delays due to rain while cool mornings and moisture benefited fruit set on all varieties. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2007 is forecast at 30.9 million tons, of which 29.1 million tons are expected to be for sugar and 1.74 million tons for seed. Total production for sugar and seed is up fractionally from the January forecast and 4 percent above the 2006 production. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 883,500 acres for sugar and seed during the 2007 crop year, unchanged from last month but 2 percent less than last year. If realized, this will be the smallest area harvested for sugar and seed since 1990. Yield is forecast at 34.9 tons per acre, the same as the last forecast but up 2.0 tons from last year. The yield in Florida for sugar and seed, at 37.0 tons per acre, is up 0.1 ton from last month and up 1.1 tons from last year. Sugarcane harvest continued in the Everglades region throughout the month of January. Wetland sugarcane harvest is progressing at a steady pace. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from January. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2007-08 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.48 million tons, down 1 percent from the January 1 forecast and 6 percent lower than the previous season. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 24.5 million boxes (1.04 million tons), down 2 percent from the January forecast and 10 percent below last season. The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 7.50 million boxes (319,000 tons), down 6 percent from January's forecast and 19 percent below last season's final utilization. Average fruit size for white grapefruit is slightly smaller than initially projected and is the smallest on record since the 1990-91 season. Droppage for white grapefruit increased substantially to 18 percent and is the highest for any of the previous 10 non-hurricane seasons. The Florida colored grapefruit forecast, at 17.0 million boxes (723,000 tons), is unchanged from the January forecast but 5 percent below the 2006-07 final utilization. Rainfall totals were above average in the upper portion of the citrus belt and below average in the lower central growing region. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward from the January forecast. Tangerines: The U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 434,000 tons, unchanged from the January forecast but 28 percent higher than the final utilization in 2006-07. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.80 million boxes (228,000 tons), unchanged from January's forecast but 4 percent higher than the 2006-07 utilization of 4.60 million boxes. Early tangerine harvest is nearly complete. The later maturing Honey tangerine droppage is at 34 percent, slightly below the previous ten season average. Arizona and California tangerine production estimates are carried forward from January. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.30 million boxes (59,000 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 4 percent above the 2006-07 final utilized production. Fresh shipments have been steady but processed fruit shipments have declined. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.81 million pounds for December 2007, down 9 percent from November but 22 percent higher than the comparable month a year ago. Total area in crop for December is estimated at 2,050 acres, down 2 percent from last month and 13 percent less than December 2006. Harvested area totaled 1,255 acres, 8 percent lower than November 2007 but up 11 percent from the same month the previous year. In December, orchards experienced cool, wet weather with gusty winds. Lower temperatures and cloudy skies delayed fruit development, while young plantings made steady progress. Growers increased spraying efforts to limit the spread of diseases. Florida Citrus: The citrus crop escaped serious damage from a cold snap the first week of the month when temperatures dropped to the upper 20s and lower 30s across the citrus producing region. According to grower reports, the lowest temperatures, at 27 degrees, were in Arcadia and Lake Alfred; however, the duration was not long enough to cause any significant damage to the trees or fruit. Slight increases in droppage were observed in the northern and Indian River production areas. Temperatures warmed by the end of the month, with daily highs at least in the mid 70s in all areas. Weekly harvest amounts rebounded from the holiday season. Early and midseason orange weekly harvest, primarily for processing, was over six million boxes by the third week of January. Grapefruit harvest stayed under a million boxes per week. Most packinghouses transitioned to Temple oranges and Honey tangerines once the harvest of navel oranges and Sunburst tangerines was finished. Overall, trees and fruit were reported in good condition, with good fruit sets. Aggressive production practices, scouting techniques, and removal of abandoned groves were being used to control greening. Grove care included irrigating, mowing, pesticide spraying, fertilizing, and hedging and topping. California Citrus: At the beginning of January, citrus growers carefully watched their groves with the onset of cold temperatures. Rainy weather eased grower's fears of dry frost in some areas. Blood orange harvest began at the beginning of the month. Mandarin, lemon, pummelo, Oro Blanco grapefruit, and navel orange harvests continued. With strong storms occurring at the end of January, citrus fruit were picked as weather permitted. Citrus growers were applying foliar nutrients and treatments to control fungus, insects, and weeds. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Grape growers pruned, cultivated, tied vines, fertilized, and treated to control weeds and insects. Similar activities continued in stone fruit orchards. Storm systems containing heavy rains and mountain snow swept through the State in January. Cherry trees were budding out by month's end. Strawberries were growing well in Fresno County and blueberry bushes were being planted. Nursery stock digging and trimming continued in strawberry and raspberry fields, but began winding down by the end of the month. At the end of January, rains put a hold on cultural activities. New plantings were taking place when possible in vineyards and orchards in preparation for the new season. Olive tree pruning continued. Almond and walnut trees were being pruned and dormant sprays were applied in almond groves. Young almond trees were planted in some areas, while strong winds destroyed established almond trees in others. Some almond trees were budding in Kern County by the end of the month. Reliability of February 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid- July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 4.0 percent. However, if you exclude the 5 abnormal production years (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 2.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.0 percent, or 2.9 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.9 percent, or 5.2 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 346,000 tons (323,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 655,000 tons (3,000 tons to 638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 10 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Jeff Geuder, Chief..............................................(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head..............................(202) 720-2127 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings.........(202) 720-5944 Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye.......................(202) 720-8068 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed........(202) 720-9526 Anthony Prillaman - Peanuts, Rice...............(202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.................(202) 720-7369 Don Gephart - Hay, Oats, Sorghum................(202) 690-3234 Dawn Keen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops...(202) 720-7621 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Lance Honig, Head...............................(202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco...........(202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries...........(202) 720-2157 Faye Propsom- Citrus, Tropical Fruits...........(202) 720-5412 Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts.......................(202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas .........(202) 720-3250 Mike Jacobsen- Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes.......(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops..............................(360) 902-1940 Lance Honig - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes....................(202) 720-2127 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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Agricultural Outlook Forum 2008 Energizing Rural America in the Global Marketplace February 21-22, 2008 Crystal Gateway Marriott 1700 Jefferson Davis Highway Arlington, Virginia Please join us for USDA's 84th annual Forum as the Secretary of Agriculture and government, farm, and industry leaders discuss the future of American agriculture. * More than 100 experts are scheduled to speak. * Topical sessions include luncheon and dinner speakers. * Extensive networking opportunities. Forecasts Trends Policies Register at: www.usda.gov/oce/forum for $300