Cr Pr 2-2 (3-08) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 11, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Up 1 Percent From February The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2007-08 season is 10.0 million tons, up 1 percent from the February 1 forecast and 32 percent higher than the 2006-07 final utilization of 7.59 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 167 million boxes (7.52 million tons), is up 1 percent from the previous forecast and 29 percent higher than last season's final utilization of 129 million boxes. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 82.0 million boxes (3.69 million tons), up 1 percent from February 1 and 25 percent above last season. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 85.0 million boxes (3.83 million tons), is unchanged from the last forecast but 34 percent higher than 2006-07. Average fruit size for Valencia oranges remains small and is still expected to be smaller at harvest than any of the last eight non-hurricane seasons. Although the drop rate increased over the past month, it remained below average. The California Valencia forecast is 16.0 million boxes (600,000 tons), up 7 percent from the previous forecast and 45 percent above 2006-07. This brings California's all orange forecast to 64.0 million boxes, up 2 percent from the January 1 forecast and 42 percent higher than last season. Harvest of Valencia oranges has begun and the crop looks good. The average fruit set per tree is higher than most years, while the fruit size is smaller than average. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2007-08 season is 1.63 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up from 1.62 last month, but down from last season's final yield of 1.65 gallons per box. The early-mid portion remains at 1.53 gallons per box, 2 percent below last season's final of 1.56 gallons per box. The Valencia portion increased to 1.73 gallons per box, 2 percent lower than last season's final of 1.77 gallons per box. All yield projections include the assumption that the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on March 11, 2008. Secretary of Agriculture Edward T. Schafer Agricultural Statistics Board Acting Chairperson Jeffrey K. Geuder Contents Page Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas..........................................4 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit.......................................5 Lemons...........................................5 Oranges..........................................5 Tangelos.........................................5 Tangerines.......................................5 Temples..........................................5 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Sugarcane........................................4 Crop Comments...................................14 Crop Summary.....................................6 Information Contacts............................17 Reliability of Production Data in this Report...16 Weather Maps....................................12 Weather Summary.................................13 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2006-2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ----- Tons ----- --- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 382.0 378.0 35.8 36.8 13,676 13,910 HI 2/ : 20.4 20.2 79.1 84.5 1,614 1,707 LA 2/ : 405.0 390.0 27.3 30.0 11,057 11,700 TX 2/ : 39.2 43.5 41.2 41.0 1,615 1,784 : US : 846.6 831.7 33.0 35.0 27,962 29,101 : For Seed : FL : 18.0 18.0 37.2 39.4 670 709 HI 2/ : 1.6 2.3 32.0 30.7 51 71 LA 2/ : 30.0 30.0 27.3 30.0 819 900 TX 2/ : 1.5 1.5 41.0 37.0 62 56 : US : 51.1 51.8 31.4 33.5 1,602 1,736 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 400.0 396.0 35.9 36.9 14,346 14,619 HI 2/ : 22.0 22.5 75.7 79.0 1,665 1,778 LA 2/ : 435.0 420.0 27.3 30.0 11,876 12,600 TX 2/ : 40.7 45.0 41.2 40.9 1,677 1,840 : US : 897.7 883.5 32.9 34.9 29,564 30,837 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2007 Summary." Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Dec : 2,050 1,255 2,805 Jan : 2,330 2,045 1,400 1,260 2,465 2,880 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2005-06, 2006-07 and Forecasted March 1, 2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2007-08 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2007-08 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early, Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 250 200 250 9 8 9 CA 4/ : 47,000 34,000 48,000 1,763 1,275 1,800 FL 5/ : 75,000 65,600 82,000 3,375 2,952 3,690 TX 4/ : 1,400 1,600 1,400 60 68 60 US : 123,650 101,400 131,650 5,207 4,303 5,559 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 200 100 100 8 4 4 CA : 14,000 11,000 16,000 525 413 600 FL : 72,700 63,400 85,000 3,272 2,853 3,825 TX 4/ : 200 380 385 9 16 16 US : 87,100 74,880 101,485 3,814 3,286 4,445 All : AZ 4/ : 450 300 350 17 12 13 CA : 61,000 45,000 64,000 2,288 1,688 2,400 FL : 147,700 129,000 167,000 6,647 5,805 7,515 TX 4/ : 1,600 1,980 1,785 69 84 76 US : 210,750 176,280 233,135 9,021 7,589 10,004 Temples 5/ : FL : 700 32 Grapefruit : White : FL : 6,500 9,300 7,500 276 395 319 Colored : FL : 12,800 17,900 17,000 544 761 723 All : AZ 4/ : 100 100 150 3 3 5 CA 4/ : 6,000 4,000 5,000 201 134 168 FL : 19,300 27,200 24,500 820 1,156 1,042 TX 4/ : 5,200 7,100 6,600 208 284 264 US : 30,600 38,400 36,250 1,232 1,577 1,479 Tangerines : AZ 4/ 6/ : 550 300 400 21 11 15 CA 4/ 6/ : 3,600 2,900 5,100 135 109 191 FL : 5,500 4,600 4,800 261 219 228 US : 9,650 7,800 10,300 417 339 434 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 3,800 2,500 1,500 144 95 57 CA : 22,000 16,000 17,000 836 608 646 US : 25,800 18,500 18,500 980 703 703 Tangelos : FL : 1,400 1,250 1,500 63 56 68 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5/ Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2007-08 season. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,020.0 3,508.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 93,600.0 86,542.0 Corn for Silage : 6,071.0 Hay, All : 61,625.0 Alfalfa : 21,670.0 All Other : 39,955.0 Oats : 3,760.0 1,505.0 Proso Millet : 570.0 515.0 Rice : 2,761.0 2,748.0 Rye : 1,376.0 289.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 7,718.0 6,805.0 Sorghum for Silage : 399.0 Wheat, All : 60,433.0 51,011.0 Winter : 44,987.0 46,610.0 35,952.0 Durum : 2,149.0 2,112.0 Other Spring : 13,297.0 12,947.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,183.0 1,163.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 354.0 349.0 Mustard Seed : 56.0 52.8 Peanuts : 1,230.0 1,195.0 Rapeseed : 1.5 1.0 Safflower : 180.0 172.0 Soybeans for Beans : 63,631.0 62,820.0 Sunflower : 2,068.0 2,009.5 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 10,830.3 10,492.2 Upland : 10,538.0 10,204.0 Amer-Pima : 292.3 288.2 Sugarbeets : 1,269.8 1,246.9 Sugarcane : 883.5 Tobacco : 356.0 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 29.0 11.0 Dry Edible Beans : 1,526.9 1,478.7 Dry Edible Peas : 847.5 811.3 Lentils : 303.0 295.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.4 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 Hops : 30.9 Peppermint Oil : 73.3 Potatoes, All : 1,148.8 1,129.0 Winter : 11.5 11.0 11.5 11.0 Spring : 73.0 70.4 Summer : 53.7 50.4 Fall : 1,010.6 996.7 Spearmint Oil : 19.6 Sweet Potatoes : 100.6 97.5 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 60.4 211,825 Corn for Grain :" : 151.1 13,073,893 Corn for Silage :Tons : 17.5 106,328 Hay, All :" : 2.44 150,304 Alfalfa :" : 3.35 72,575 All Other :" : 1.95 77,729 Oats :Bu : 60.9 91,599 Proso Millet :" : 32.3 16,615 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 7,185 197,456 Rye :Bu : 27.4 7,914 Sorghum for Grain :" : 74.2 504,993 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 15.6 6,206 Wheat, All :Bu : 40.5 2,066,722 Winter :" : 42.2 1,515,989 Durum :" : 33.9 71,686 Other Spring :" : 37.0 479,047 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,250 1,453,830 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 6,596.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 16.9 5,904 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 603 31,826 Peanuts :" : 3,130 3,740,650 Rapeseed :" : 1,300 1,300 Safflower :" : 1,215 208,995 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 41.2 2,585,207 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,437 2,888,555 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 871 19,033.0 Upland 2/ :" : 857 18,208.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,374 825.0 Sugarbeets :Tons : 25.6 31,912 Sugarcane :" : 34.9 30,837 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,187 778,624 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,155 127 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,716 25,371 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,960 15,903 Lentils 2/ :" : 1,155 3,408 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 541 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,170 7,500 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 35,000 2,800 Hops :" : 1,949 60,253.1 Peppermint Oil :" : 93 6,794 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 398 449,156 Winter :" : 215 250 2,473 2,750 Spring :" : 294 20,694 Summer :" : 335 16,907 Fall :" : 410 409,082 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 121 2,379 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 189 18,452 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :----------------------------------------- : : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit :Tons : 1,232 1,577 1,479 Lemons :" : 980 703 703 Oranges 3/ :" : 9,021 7,589 10,004 Tangelos (FL) :" : 63 56 68 Tangerines :" : 417 339 434 Temples (FL) 3/ :" : 32 : : Noncitrus : : Apples :1,000 Lbs: 9,851.7 9,342.6 Apricots :Tons : 44.5 88.3 Bananas (HI) :Lbs : 20,000.0 21,000.0 Grapes :Tons : 6,377.2 6,729.7 Olives (CA) :" : 23.5 132.5 Papayas (HI) :Lbs : 28,700.0 33,300.0 Peaches :Tons : 1,010.1 1,112.7 Pears :" : 842.0 881.0 Prunes, Dried (CA) :" : 198.0 81.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) :" : 21.5 11.9 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled) :Lbs : 1,120,000 1,360,000 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) :Tons : 43.0 36.0 Pecans (in-shell) :Lbs : 206,300 349,155 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) :Tons : 346.0 320.0 Maple Syrup :Gals : 1,449 1,258 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season. 2/ Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,626,850 1,419,650 Corn for Grain 2/ :37,878,980 35,022,680 Corn for Silage : 2,456,870 Hay, All 3/ : 24,939,020 Alfalfa : 8,769,630 All Other : 16,169,390 Oats : 1,521,630 609,060 Proso Millet : 230,670 208,420 Rice : 1,117,350 1,112,090 Rye : 556,850 116,960 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,123,400 2,753,920 Sorghum for Silage : 161,470 Wheat, All 3/ :24,456,630 20,643,640 Winter :18,205,790 18,862,600 14,549,410 Durum : 869,680 854,710 Other Spring : 5,381,160 5,239,520 : Oilseeds : Canola : 478,750 470,650 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 143,260 141,240 Mustard Seed : 22,660 21,370 Peanuts : 497,770 483,600 Rapeseed : 610 400 Safflower : 72,840 69,610 Soybeans for Beans :25,750,830 25,422,630 Sunflower : 836,900 813,220 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 4,382,910 4,246,090 Upland : 4,264,620 4,129,460 Amer-Pima : 118,290 116,630 Sugarbeets : 513,880 504,610 Sugarcane : 357,540 Tobacco : 144,070 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 11,740 4,450 Dry Edible Beans : 617,920 598,420 Dry Edible Peas : 342,970 328,320 Lentils : 122,620 119,380 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,590 Ginger Root (HI) : 30 Hops : 12,510 Peppermint Oil : 29,660 Potatoes, All 3/ : 464,910 456,900 Winter : 4,650 4,450 4,650 4,450 Spring : 29,540 28,490 Summer : 21,730 20,400 Fall : 408,980 403,350 Spearmint Oil : 7,930 Sweet Potatoes : 40,710 39,460 Taro (HI) 5/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.25 4,611,940 Corn for Grain : 9.48 332,092,180 Corn for Silage : 39.26 96,459,140 Hay, All 2/ : 5.47 136,353,500 Alfalfa : 7.51 65,838,930 All Other : 4.36 70,514,560 Oats : 2.18 1,329,560 Proso Millet : 1.81 376,820 Rice : 8.05 8,956,450 Rye : 1.72 201,020 Sorghum for Grain : 4.66 12,827,410 Sorghum for Silage : 34.87 5,629,990 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.72 56,246,960 Winter : 2.84 41,258,460 Durum : 2.28 1,950,970 Other Spring : 2.49 13,037,520 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.40 659,450 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,983,790 Flaxseed : 1.06 149,970 Mustard Seed : 0.68 14,440 Peanuts : 3.51 1,696,730 Rapeseed : 1.46 590 Safflower : 1.36 94,800 Soybeans for Beans : 2.77 70,357,800 Sunflower : 1.61 1,310,230 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.98 4,143,950 Upland : 0.96 3,964,330 Amer-Pima : 1.54 179,620 Sugarbeets : 57.37 28,950,080 Sugarcane : 78.24 27,974,860 Tobacco : 2.45 353,180 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.29 5,760 Dry Edible Beans : 1.92 1,150,810 Dry Edible Peas : 2.20 721,350 Lentils : 1.29 154,580 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 24,540 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.31 3,400 Ginger Root (HI) : 39.23 1,270 Hops : 2.18 27,330 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,080 Potatoes, All 2/ : 44.59 20,373,370 Winter : 24.10 28.02 112,170 124,740 Spring : 32.95 938,660 Summer : 37.60 766,890 Fall : 46.00 18,555,650 Spearmint Oil : 0.14 1,080 Sweet Potatoes : 21.21 836,970 Taro (HI) 3/ : 1,810 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :-------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,117,650 1,430,630 1,341,730 Lemons : 889,040 637,750 637,750 Oranges 3/ : 8,183,710 6,884,620 9,075,480 Tangelos (FL) : 57,150 50,800 61,690 Tangerines : 378,300 307,540 393,720 Temples (FL) 3/ : 29,030 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,468,660 4,237,730 Apricots : 40,350 80,070 Bananas (HI) : 9,070 9,530 Grapes : 5,785,250 6,105,080 Olives (CA) : 21,320 120,200 Papayas (HI) : 13,020 15,100 Peaches : 916,370 1,009,460 Pears : 763,880 799,180 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 179,620 73,480 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 19,500 10,800 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 508,020 616,890 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) : 39,010 32,660 Pecans (in-shell) : 93,580 158,370 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) : 313,890 290,300 Maple Syrup : 7,240 6,290 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season. 2/ Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. February Weather Summary Multiple storms dumped heavy precipitation from the southeastern Plains into the Northeast, including a broad swath of the Midwest. As a result, periodic flooding returned to the central and eastern Corn Belt, while record-setting snowfall blanketed areas from Iowa into New England. Farther south, rain continued to ease or eradicate drought, especially across southern Georgia and northern Florida. Some of the Southern rainfall was accompanied by strong thunderstorms, including a February 5-6 tornado swarm that was the nation=s deadliest outbreak since May 1985. However, heavy showers largely bypassed several areas, including the central portion of Florida=s peninsula and much of the interior Southeast, leaving long-term rainfall deficits intact. Meanwhile, mostly dry weather prevailed across the nation=s mid- section, excluding the aforementioned heavy precipitation on the southeastern Plains. In fact, intensifying drought across central, southern, and western Texas contributed to a major rash of wildfires that peaked in intensity during a high-wind event on February 25. By month=s end, the percentage of winter wheat rated very poor to poor included 21 percent in Kansas, 23 percent in Oklahoma, and 63 percent in Texas. As spring approached, dryness was also a concern on parts of the northern High Plains. Elsewhere, significant Western precipitation was mostly confined to interior portions of the region. Nevertheless, enough snow fell to add 9 inches of water equivalency (from 20 to 29 inches) to the Sierra Nevada snow pack. Overall, Western water supply prospects for the spring and summer were superior to this time last year, when the average water content of the Sierra Nevada snow pack stood at just 17 inches. The coldest February weather in more than a decade gripped much of the northern Plains and the upper Midwest, where monthly temperatures generally averaged 5 to 10 degrees F below normal. Colder-than-normal weather also prevailed across much of the remainder of the Plains and Midwest, except for near-normal temperatures on the High Plains and southern Plains. In contrast, warmer-than-normal conditions covered much of the South, particularly in southern Texas and the southern Atlantic States. In fact, monthly temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees F above normal in Deep South Texas. Elsewhere, Western temperatures were variable, generally ranging from somewhat below normal across the Intermountain region to slightly above normal in parts of the Northwest. February Agricultural Summary By midmonth, spring corn planting preparations were underway in Texas. However, rainfall in the Blacklands and south central Texas regions delayed field activity. During February, sugarcane harvest was ongoing in Texas and Florida, and sugarbeets were growing well in California, as producers fertilized, irrigated, and cultivated fields. During the first half of the month, potato planting was ongoing in south Texas and neared completion in central Florida, while potato harvest continued in both California and southern Florida. In early February, cotton fieldwork on the Texas High Plains continued, and harvest neared completion on the southern Low Plains. By February 15, Texas cotton producers were preparing for planting along the Upper Coast, while harvest in the Low Plains neared completion. A week later, producers in the Panhandle were preparing their fields for planting, while in the Lower Valley planting was underway. By February 22, sorghum planting was underway in Texas. By the end of the month, growers in the Texas Low Plains and Trans-Pecos regions were preparing fields and planting continued in the Lower Valley. Early in the month, small grain planting continued in Arizona but progress was behind last year and normal. In California, rains promoted growth of oat, barley, winter forage, and wheat crops. In Texas, the lack of moisture continued to negatively impact small grains. By February 15, half of Arizona's alfalfa crop had been harvested. By February 22, Arizona producers nearly completed the planting of small grain acreage behind the pace of last year and the 5-year average pace. Durum wheat and barley acreage was 65 percent or more emerged by this date. In Texas, showers in the Blacklands and the Panhandle were beneficial for small grain development. Georgia producers were top dressing small grains, fertilizing pastures, and spraying for weeds. The Florida panhandle received heavy rains leaving wheat fields soaked. By month's end, herbicide applications were ongoing in California small grain fields and alfalfa was growing well across the State as weevil spraying continued. In Texas, irrigation continued on many wheat and oat fields with showers in eastern Texas providing only limited relief to small grains. Frequent showers in Georgia during the month were beneficial for crops and pastures, although in some areas, wet soil conditions hampered applications of nitrogen on small grain fields. Early in the month, almond producers in California were clearing downed trees from January's damaging winds, while new planting of almond trees was evident in some areas. By mid-month, almond buds were swelling, pruning continued in nut groves, and dormant sprays were applied. By February 29, almond groves were blooming and progressing well in California's Sacramento Valley. Warm weather conditions were excellent for pollination and reduced disease threat. Texas pecan growers were pruning trees early in the month. In California, field preparation for new vineyards started early in the month and was nearly complete by month's end. In existing vineyards, irrigation, cultivation, and chemical treatments were ongoing and growers were tying vines. Some blueberry bush planting was evident in California and Georgia. In Florida, strawberry harvest began and fields were prepared for watermelon planting. Harvesting, packing, and shipping continued for a multitude of vegetables and herbs during the month of February in Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2007 is 30.8 million tons, of which 29.1 million tons are for sugar and 1.74 million tons are for seed. Total production for sugar and seed is down fractionally from February but 4 percent above the 2006 production. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 883,500 acres for sugar and seed during the 2007 crop year, unchanged from last month but 2 percent less than last year. If realized, this will be the smallest area harvested for sugar and seed since 1990. Yield is forecast at 34.9 tons per acre, the same as the last forecast but up 2.0 tons from last year. The yield in Florida for sugar and seed, at 36.9 tons per acre, is down 0.1 ton from last month but up 1.0 ton from last year. Harvest continued in the Lake Okeechobee area in Florida and wetland sugarcane harvest was progressing at a steady pace throughout the month of February. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from January. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.88 million pounds for January 2008, up 3 percent from December and 17 percent higher than the comparable month a year ago. Total area in crop for January is estimated at 2,045 acres, down slightly from last month and 12 percent less than January 2007. Harvested area totaled 1,260 acres, virtually unchanged from last month but down 10 percent from January 2007. January weather was mostly dry with continuous trade winds. Warm daytime temperatures were beneficial for crop progress and fruit development. However, at the end of the month, drenching rains caused some minor flooding and damage to roads and young plantings. Orchard maintenance was delayed due to wet conditions. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2007-08 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.48 million tons, unchanged from the February 1 forecast but 6 percent lower than the previous season. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 24.5 million boxes (1.04 million tons), unchanged from the February forecast but 10 percent below last season. The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 7.50 million boxes (319,000 tons), the same as February's forecast but 19 percent below last season's final utilization. Although the previous data were considered final, an additional monthly size and drop survey was conducted in February. Very little growth occurred in white grapefruit and the average volume was the smallest on record for February. The droppage rate for white grapefruit continued slightly above the maximum of recent non-hurricane years. The Florida colored grapefruit forecast, at 17.0 million boxes (723,000 tons), is unchanged from the February forecast but 5 percent below the 2006-07 final utilization. Average fruit sizes were the smallest on record in a series dating back to 1968. The average drop rate slowed in February and ended slightly below average. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward from the January forecast. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.50 million boxes (68,000 tons), up 15 percent from the February 1 forecast and 20 percent above the 2006-07 final utilized production. Nearly 93 percent of the rows included in the monthly route survey have been harvested. Tangerines: The U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 434,000 tons, unchanged from the February forecast but 28 percent higher than the final utilization in 2006-07. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.80 million boxes (228,000 tons), unchanged from February's forecast but 4 percent higher than the 2006-07 utilization of 4.60 million boxes. Harvest of Fallglo, an early tangerine, was completed and Sunburst, another early tangerine, was nearly completed. The current volume for the later maturing Honey tangerines was the smallest on record since 1996, excluding the hurricane seasons. Arizona and California tangerine production forecasts are carried forward from January. Florida Citrus: The citrus crop escaped serious damage from several cold fronts that passed through the State during February. Temperatures dropped to the lower 30s across the citrus producing region on several mornings with the lowest temperatures reported in Ona and several upper interior regions. By the end of the month, daily highs were in the mid 80s in all areas. Weekly harvest amounts of early-mid oranges were in the mid 5 million boxes range most of the month with harvest expected to be nearly complete by mid- March. Grapefruit harvest stayed under a million boxes per week until late in the month when processing harvest increased. Navel orange and Sunburst tangerine harvest was nearly complete and crews were transitioning to harvest of Temple oranges and Honey tangerines. With frequent irrigation and timely rainfall, trees and fruit were reported in good condition. Aggressive production practices, scouting techniques, and removal of abandoned groves were being used to control greening. Grove care included irrigating, mowing, pesticide spraying, fertilizing, and hedging and topping. California Citrus: Citrus harvest was delayed due to wet conditions during the first week of February. Severe storms containing hail brought damage to some citrus groves. Warm weather later in the month increased rind puff and fruit drop in navel orange groves. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: At the beginning of February, excessive rainfall delayed orchard and vineyard activities and caused damage in some strawberry fields in the south. By mid-month, activities resumed and vineyard pruning was mostly complete by the end of the month. New blueberry bushes were planted during February. Cherry blocks were budding throughout the month. Early nectarine varieties began to bloom in Tulare County. Dormant sprays and pre-emergent herbicides were applied to some stone fruit orchards as weather permitted. Almond, pistachio, and walnut groves were being pruned, with dormant sprays still being applied in some areas. Almond trees were budding throughout February and blooming had begun in some groves by the end of the month. Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid- July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These 4 States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 2.5 percent. However, if you exclude the 5 abnormal production seasons (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 1.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 2.5 percent, or 1.9 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.3 percent, or 3.3 percent when excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 206,000 tons (191,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 8,000 tons to 520,000 tons (3,000 tons to 503,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 6 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Jeff Geuder, Chief.................................................(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head.................................(202) 720-2127 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings............(202) 720-5944 Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye..........................(202) 720-8068 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed...........(202) 720-9526 Anthony Prillaman - Peanuts, Rice..................(202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds....................(202) 720-7369 Don Gephart - Hay, Oats, Sorghum...................(202) 690-3234 Dawn Keen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops......(202) 720-7621 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Lance Honig, Head..................................(202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco..........................(202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries..............(202) 720-2157 Faye Propsom- Citrus, Tropical Fruits..............(202) 720-5412 Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts...(202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas....................(202) 720-3250 Mike Jacobsen- Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes..........(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops.................................(360) 902-1940 Lance Honig - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes..(202) 720-2127 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at www.nass.usda.gov, under the right navigation, Receive reports by Email, click on National or State. Follow the instructions on the screen. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.