Cr Pr 2-2 (4-08) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 9, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Up 1 Percent From March The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2007-08 season is 10.1 million tons, up 1 percent from the March 1 forecast and 33 percent higher than the 2006-07 final utilization of 7.63 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 169 million boxes (7.58 million tons), is up 1 percent from the previous forecast and 31 percent higher than last season's final utilization of 129 million boxes. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 83.5 million boxes (3.76 million tons), up 2 percent from the March 1 forecast and 27 percent above last season. Weekly harvest of the early, midseason, and navel varieties has declined sharply, indicating harvest is near completion. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 85.0 million boxes (3.83 million tons), is unchanged from the last forecast but 34 percent higher than 2006-07. The monthly row count survey indicated that only 12 percent of the Valencia orange rows had been harvested. All orange varieties experienced a heavy bloom in March and trees were in excellent condition. California's all orange forecast is 65.5 million boxes (2.46 million tons), 2 percent above the previous forecast and 42 percent higher than last season. California's navel orange utilization is forecast at 49.5 million boxes (1.86 million tons), up 3 percent from the previous forecast and 43 percent higher than 2006-07. The navel season got off to a good start with above average yields and good fruit color, maturity, and sugar content. The Valencia orange forecast in California is 16.0 million boxes (600,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 39 percent above last season. Valencia harvest began early with limited picking. The crop looked good with a heavier than average fruit set per tree. The Texas all orange forecast is 1.79 million boxes (76,000 tons), up slightly from the January 1 forecast but down 10 percent from 2006-07. Arizona's all orange forecast is 350,000 boxes (13,000 tons), unchanged from January but 17 percent higher than last season. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2007-08 season is 1.63 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from last month, but down from last season's final yield of 1.65 gallons per box. The early-mid portion is final at 1.55 gallons per box, down slightly from last season's final of 1.56 gallons per box. The Valencia portion remains at 1.73 gallons per box, 2 percent lower than last season's final of 1.77 gallons per box. All yield projections include the assumption that the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on April 9, 2008. Secretary of Agriculture Edward T. Schafer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Lemons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Oranges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Tangelos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Tangerines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Temples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Crop Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Reliability of Production Data in this Report. . . . . .16 Weather Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Weather Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2005-06, 2006-07 and Forecasted April 1, 2008 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2007-08 : 2005-06 : 2006-07 : 2007-08 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 3/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 4/ : AZ : 250 200 250 9 8 9 CA : 47,000 34,500 49,500 1,763 1,294 1,856 FL 5/ : 75,000 65,600 83,500 3,375 2,952 3,758 TX : 1,400 1,600 1,400 60 68 60 US : 123,650 101,900 134,650 5,207 4,322 5,683 Valencia : AZ : 200 100 100 8 4 4 CA : 14,000 11,500 16,000 525 431 600 FL : 72,700 63,400 85,000 3,272 2,853 3,825 TX : 200 380 388 9 16 16 US : 87,100 75,380 101,488 3,814 3,304 4,445 All : AZ : 450 300 350 17 12 13 CA : 61,000 46,000 65,500 2,288 1,725 2,456 FL : 147,700 129,000 168,500 6,647 5,805 7,583 TX : 1,600 1,980 1,788 69 84 76 US : 210,750 177,280 236,138 9,021 7,626 10,128 Temples 5/ : FL : 700 32 Grapefruit : White : FL : 6,500 9,300 7,500 276 395 319 Colored : FL : 12,800 17,900 17,000 544 761 723 All : AZ : 100 100 150 3 3 5 CA : 6,000 5,500 5,000 201 184 168 FL : 19,300 27,200 24,500 820 1,156 1,042 TX : 5,200 7,100 6,400 208 284 256 US : 30,600 39,900 36,050 1,232 1,627 1,471 Tangerines : AZ 6/ : 550 300 400 21 11 15 CA 6/ : 3,600 3,500 5,100 135 131 191 FL : 5,500 4,600 4,800 261 219 228 US : 9,650 8,400 10,300 417 361 434 Lemons : AZ : 3,800 2,500 1,500 144 95 57 CA : 22,000 18,500 17,000 836 703 646 US : 25,800 21,000 18,500 980 798 703 Tangelos : FL : 1,400 1,250 1,500 63 56 68 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ 2006-07 revised. 3/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 5/ Temples included in early and midseason orange varieties beginning with 2006-07 season. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :---------------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------ State : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 :2007 :2008 : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 Acres -------- -- Cwt -- ----- 1,000 Cwt ---- : Winter : CA : 11.5 11.0 11.5 11.0 215 240 3,120 2,473 2,640 FL 1/ : 1,375 : Total : 11.5 11.0 11.5 11.0 215 240 4,495 2,473 2,640 : Spring : AZ : 4.0 3.5 4.0 3.5 280 300 1,170 1,120 1,050 CA : 15.5 13.3 15.5 13.3 395 415 6,044 6,123 5,520 FL 1/ : 27.8 28.5 27.2 27.9 287 290 6,441 7,807 8,091 Hastings : 16.5 17.3 16.2 17.0 285 290 4,731 4,617 4,930 Other FL : 11.3 11.2 11.0 10.9 290 290 1,710 3,190 3,161 NC : 16.0 15.0 14.5 14.0 186 200 3,255 2,700 2,800 TX : 9.7 8.9 9.2 8.5 320 290 2,856 2,944 2,465 : Total : 73.0 69.2 70.4 67.2 294 297 19,766 20,694 19,926 : Summer 2/ : AL : 1.4 1.3 140 240 182 CA : 7.0 7.0 360 2,111 2,520 CO : 3.0 2.8 350 1,296 980 DE : 2.0 2.0 270 504 540 IL : 6.3 6.1 400 2,489 2,440 KS : 5.0 4.9 365 1,824 1,789 MD : 3.0 3.0 320 928 960 MO : 6.8 6.6 300 2,394 1,980 NJ : 2.4 2.4 265 600 636 TX : 11.2 9.8 395 4,268 3,871 VA : 5.6 5.4 210 1,512 1,134 : Total : 53.7 51.3 332 18,166 17,032 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Winter potatoes combined with spring potatoes in 2007. 2/ 2007 revised. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Jan : 2,330 2,045 1,400 1,260 2,465 2,880 Feb : 1,930 2,040 1,160 1,430 2,015 2,695 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,020.0 4,147.0 3,508.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 93,600.0 86,014.0 86,542.0 Corn for Silage : 6,071.0 Hay, All : 61,625.0 60,583.0 Alfalfa : 21,670.0 All Other : 39,955.0 Oats : 3,760.0 3,420.0 1,505.0 Proso Millet : 570.0 515.0 Rice : 2,761.0 2,770.0 2,748.0 Rye : 1,376.0 289.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 7,718.0 7,415.0 6,805.0 Sorghum for Silage : 399.0 Wheat, All : 60,433.0 63,803.0 51,011.0 Winter : 44,987.0 46,840.0 35,952.0 Durum : 2,149.0 2,630.0 2,112.0 Other Spring : 13,297.0 14,333.0 12,947.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,183.0 1,010.0 1,163.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 354.0 360.0 349.0 Mustard Seed : 56.0 52.8 Peanuts : 1,230.0 1,430.0 1,195.0 Rapeseed : 1.5 1.0 Safflower : 180.0 172.0 Soybeans for Beans : 63,631.0 74,793.0 62,820.0 Sunflower : 2,068.0 2,153.0 2,009.5 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 10,830.3 9,389.6 10,492.2 Upland : 10,538.0 9,186.0 10,204.0 Amer-Pima : 292.3 203.6 288.2 Sugarbeets : 1,269.8 1,131.8 1,246.9 Sugarcane : 883.5 Tobacco : 356.0 350.9 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 29.0 25.5 11.0 Dry Edible Beans : 1,526.9 1,398.5 1,478.7 Dry Edible Peas : 847.5 820.0 811.3 Lentils : 303.0 277.0 295.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.4 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 Hops : 30.9 Peppermint Oil : 73.3 Potatoes, All : 1,148.8 1,129.9 Winter : 11.5 11.0 11.5 11.0 Spring : 73.0 69.2 70.4 67.2 Summer : 53.7 51.3 Fall : 1,010.6 996.7 Spearmint Oil : 19.6 Sweet Potatoes : 100.6 103.8 97.5 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 60.4 211,825 Corn for Grain :" : 151.1 13,073,893 Corn for Silage :Tons : 17.5 106,328 Hay, All :" : 2.44 150,304 Alfalfa :" : 3.35 72,575 All Other :" : 1.95 77,729 Oats :Bu : 60.9 91,599 Proso Millet :" : 32.3 16,615 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 7,185 197,456 Rye :Bu : 27.4 7,914 Sorghum for Grain :" : 74.2 504,993 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 15.6 6,206 Wheat, All :Bu : 40.5 2,066,722 Winter :" : 42.2 1,515,989 Durum :" : 33.9 71,686 Other Spring :" : 37.0 479,047 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,250 1,453,830 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 6,596.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 16.9 5,904 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 603 31,826 Peanuts :" : 3,130 3,740,650 Rapeseed :" : 1,300 1,300 Safflower :" : 1,215 208,995 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 41.2 2,585,207 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,437 2,888,555 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 871 19,033.0 Upland 2/ :" : 857 18,208.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,374 825.0 Sugarbeets :Tons : 25.6 31,912 Sugarcane :" : 34.9 30,837 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,187 778,624 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,155 127 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,716 25,371 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,960 15,903 Lentils 2/ :" : 1,155 3,408 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 541 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,170 7,500 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 35,000 2,800 Hops :" : 1,949 60,253.1 Peppermint Oil :" : 93 6,794 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 398 449,281 Winter :" : 215 240 2,473 2,640 Spring :" : 294 297 20,694 19,926 Summer :" : 332 17,032 Fall :" : 410 409,082 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 121 2,379 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 189 18,452 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :----------------------------------------- : : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit :Tons : 1,232 1,627 1,471 Lemons :" : 980 798 703 Oranges 3/ :" : 9,021 7,626 10,128 Tangelos (FL) :" : 63 56 68 Tangerines :" : 417 361 434 Temples (FL) 3/ :" : 32 : : Noncitrus : : Apples :1,000 Lbs: 9,851.7 9,342.6 Apricots :Tons : 44.5 88.3 Bananas (HI) :Lbs : 20,000.0 21,000.0 Grapes :Tons : 6,377.2 6,729.7 Olives (CA) :" : 23.5 132.5 Papayas (HI) :Lbs : 28,700.0 33,300.0 Peaches :Tons : 1,010.1 1,112.7 Pears :" : 842.0 881.0 Prunes, Dried (CA) :" : 198.0 81.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) :" : 21.5 11.9 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled) :Lbs : 1,120,000 1,360,000 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) :Tons : 43.0 36.0 Pecans (in-shell) :Lbs : 206,300 349,155 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) :Tons : 346.0 320.0 Maple Syrup :Gals : 1,449 1,258 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season. 2/ Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,626,850 1,678,250 1,419,650 Corn for Grain 2/ :37,878,980 34,809,010 35,022,680 Corn for Silage : 2,456,870 Hay, All 3/ : 24,939,020 24,517,330 Alfalfa : 8,769,630 All Other : 16,169,390 Oats : 1,521,630 1,384,040 609,060 Proso Millet : 230,670 208,420 Rice : 1,117,350 1,120,990 1,112,090 Rye : 556,850 116,960 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,123,400 3,000,780 2,753,920 Sorghum for Silage : 161,470 Wheat, All 3/ :24,456,630 25,820,440 20,643,640 Winter :18,205,790 18,955,680 14,549,410 Durum : 869,680 1,064,330 854,710 Other Spring : 5,381,160 5,800,420 5,239,520 : Oilseeds : Canola : 478,750 408,740 470,650 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 143,260 145,690 141,240 Mustard Seed : 22,660 21,370 Peanuts : 497,770 578,710 483,600 Rapeseed : 610 400 Safflower : 72,840 69,610 Soybeans for Beans :25,750,830 30,267,980 25,422,630 Sunflower : 836,900 871,300 813,220 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 4,382,910 3,799,880 4,246,090 Upland : 4,264,620 3,717,480 4,129,460 Amer-Pima : 118,290 82,390 116,630 Sugarbeets : 513,880 458,030 504,610 Sugarcane : 357,540 Tobacco : 144,070 142,010 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 11,740 10,320 4,450 Dry Edible Beans : 617,920 565,960 598,420 Dry Edible Peas : 342,970 331,850 328,320 Lentils : 122,620 112,100 119,380 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,590 Ginger Root (HI) : 30 Hops : 12,510 Peppermint Oil : 29,660 Potatoes, All 3/ : 464,910 457,260 Winter : 4,650 4,450 4,650 4,450 Spring : 29,540 28,000 28,490 27,200 Summer : 21,730 20,760 Fall : 408,980 403,350 Spearmint Oil : 7,930 Sweet Potatoes : 40,710 42,010 39,460 Taro (HI) 5/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.25 4,611,940 Corn for Grain : 9.48 332,092,180 Corn for Silage : 39.26 96,459,140 Hay, All 2/ : 5.47 136,353,500 Alfalfa : 7.51 65,838,930 All Other : 4.36 70,514,560 Oats : 2.18 1,329,560 Proso Millet : 1.81 376,820 Rice : 8.05 8,956,450 Rye : 1.72 201,020 Sorghum for Grain : 4.66 12,827,410 Sorghum for Silage : 34.87 5,629,990 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.72 56,246,960 Winter : 2.84 41,258,460 Durum : 2.28 1,950,970 Other Spring : 2.49 13,037,520 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.40 659,450 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,983,790 Flaxseed : 1.06 149,970 Mustard Seed : 0.68 14,440 Peanuts : 3.51 1,696,730 Rapeseed : 1.46 590 Safflower : 1.36 94,800 Soybeans for Beans : 2.77 70,357,800 Sunflower : 1.61 1,310,230 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.98 4,143,950 Upland : 0.96 3,964,330 Amer-Pima : 1.54 179,620 Sugarbeets : 57.37 28,950,080 Sugarcane : 78.24 27,974,860 Tobacco : 2.45 353,180 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.29 5,760 Dry Edible Beans : 1.92 1,150,810 Dry Edible Peas : 2.20 721,350 Lentils : 1.29 154,580 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 24,540 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.31 3,400 Ginger Root (HI) : 39.23 1,270 Hops : 2.18 27,330 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,080 Potatoes, All 2/ : 44.57 20,379,040 Winter : 24.10 26.90 112,170 119,750 Spring : 32.95 33.23 938,660 903,830 Summer : 37.21 772,560 Fall : 46.00 18,555,650 Spearmint Oil : 0.14 1,080 Sweet Potatoes : 21.21 836,970 Taro (HI) 3/ : 1,810 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2006-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :-------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,117,650 1,475,990 1,334,470 Lemons : 889,040 723,930 637,750 Oranges 3/ : 8,183,710 6,918,190 9,187,970 Tangelos (FL) : 57,150 50,800 61,690 Tangerines : 378,300 327,490 393,720 Temples (FL) 3/ : 29,030 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,468,660 4,237,730 Apricots : 40,350 80,070 Bananas (HI) : 9,070 9,530 Grapes : 5,785,250 6,105,080 Olives (CA) : 21,320 120,200 Papayas (HI) : 13,020 15,100 Peaches : 916,370 1,009,460 Pears : 763,880 799,180 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 179,620 73,480 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 19,500 10,800 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 508,020 616,890 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) : 39,010 32,660 Pecans (in-shell) : 93,580 158,370 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) : 313,890 290,300 Maple Syrup : 7,240 6,290 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2007-08 season. 2/ Production years are 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. 3/ Temples included in oranges beginning with the 2006-07 season. March Weather Summary A furious barrage of storms dumped heavy rain and snow in a band more than 2000 miles long and roughly 200 to 300 miles wide from central Texas into the Northeast, delaying spring fieldwork and causing widespread flooding. Lowland flooding was most extensive from the Mid-South into the lower Ohio Valley, especially in the wake of a tremendous storm that dropped more than a foot of rain on parts of the Missouri Bootheel and neighboring areas on March 17-19. In stark contrast, drier-than-normal conditions covered much of the remainder of the nation. Exceptions to the dryness included southern Florida and scattered locations from the Pacific Northwest into the northern and central Rockies. Areas from California into the Southwest were especially dry, although spring fieldwork advanced with few delays. Dry weather was less favorable on the High Plains, where winter wheat continued to suffer from the effects of poor autumn establishment and below-normal precipitation thereafter. By month's end, USDA rated nearly half of the Texas winter wheat in very poor to poor condition, along with nearly one-third of the crop in Colorado and approximately one-fifth of the wheat in Kansas and Oklahoma. In Texas, there was a remarkable contrast between drought (western and southern areas) and wetness (central and northeastern locations). Elsewhere, generally drier-than-normal weather prevailed in the upper Midwest and from the central Gulf coast region to the middle and southern Atlantic Coast. However, late-month snow provided beneficial moisture in parts of the upper Midwest, while Southeastern rainfall was sufficient to promote summer crop emergence and the development of pastures and winter grains. Wintry conditions refused to let go from the upper Midwest into northern New England, where temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees F below normal in many locations and where deep snow still covered the ground by month's end. In Caribou, Maine, for example, March began and ended with a snow depth of 30 inches, with the depth peaking at 36 inches on March 21. Meanwhile, chilly conditions also prevailed across the Northwest and Intermountain West, especially during the mid- to late-month period. In the Northwest, cold, occasionally snowy conditions slowed fieldwork and limited the development of winter grains and fruit crops. Cold air also surged into the Southeast, culminating in generally light freezes on March 25-26. Nevertheless, Southeastern producers monitored the effects of the cold snap on blooming peaches, boot-stage winter wheat, and emerging summer crops, such as corn. In contrast, warmer-than-normal conditions were most prevalent across the High Plains, the Southwest, and the Mid-Atlantic coastal plain. March Agricultural Summary Early in the month, California small grain producers were applying herbicides, Arizona small grains were emerging, and seeding of spring barley in Colorado was at the pace of last year, but behind normal. By March 17, herbicide applications in California were winding down, Arizona small grain emergence was nearly complete, and wet weather in Florida was impacting small grain condition in some areas. In Oklahoma, winter wheat jointing was behind last year by 20 points, rye jointing was ahead of the normal pace by 6 points, and oat planting was nearly complete. By March 24, Kansas wheat had entered the jointing stage, behind the pace of last year and normal. By month's end, winter wheat in Oklahoma had made rapid developmental progress with half of the crop in the jointing stage. Small grain condition in Texas was rated mostly fair to poor, but had improved slightly in some areas. In California, sugarbeet producers were fertilizing, irrigating, cultivating, and applying chemicals early in the month. Seedbed preparations were ongoing for most row crops in Oklahoma, and in Texas, sugarcane harvest and cotton planting were underway. Rain delayed corn planting in some areas. Louisiana sugarcane producers were destroying old stubble and applying herbicides while rice planting preparations were ongoing. By March 17, row crop seedbed preparations were underway in many States, while cotton and corn planting had begun in Arizona, Louisiana, and Texas. Wet weather in Louisiana led to planting delays. By March 17, corn planting progress was behind last year's pace by 41 points. During the week of March 24, moderate precipitation delayed fieldwork in the Pacific Northwest and across a band stretching from central Texas to Ohio. By month's end, row crop field preparations were underway in most southern areas. California sugarbeet planting was ongoing, and in Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana, producers were planting corn. In Louisiana, rice planting progress was well ahead of last year and normal. Texas sugarcane producers were applying herbicides. Vegetable harvest and packing continued in Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas throughout the month. Planting of summer vegetables was evident early in the month in Texas, and by March 24, was gaining momentum in Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. By month's end, frost damage was being assessed by many Georgia vegetable producers. Texas producers were planting melons and Louisiana producers were harvesting and marketing strawberries early in the month. In California, grape buds were swelling and vineyard pruning was complete by March 10, while stone fruit bloom was evident in some areas. By mid-month, almond trees in California were nearly at full bloom. Spring strawberries were also blooming in California, while blueberry bushes were being planted and grape buds were breaking open. Louisiana strawberry harvest continued. By month's end, orchards and vineyards in California were being treated for weeds and insects. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2007-08 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.47 million tons, down 1 percent from the March 1 forecast and 10 percent lower than the previous season. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 24.5 million boxes (1.04 million tons), unchanged from the March forecast but 10 percent below last season. The all white grapefruit forecast is 7.50 million boxes (319,000 tons), the same as March's forecast but 19 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida's colored grapefruit forecast, at 17.0 million boxes (723,000 tons), is unchanged from the March forecast but 5 percent below the 2006-07 final utilization. Nearly 75 percent of the rows observed this month in the row count survey were harvested with highest harvest percents noted in the southern and western areas of the State. Over 85 percent of the survey rows were located in the Indian River District, where 75 percent of the rows were harvested. The Texas grapefruit forecast, at 6.40 million boxes (256,000 tons), is 3 percent lower than the January 1 forecast and 10 percent less than the previous season. Grapefruit harvest was nearly complete and the groves looked good. California's grapefruit production forecast is 5.00 million boxes (168,000 tons), unchanged from January's forecast but 9 percent lower than last season. Desert Rio Reds and Pummelo varieties were being picked in the State. Arizona's grapefruit production forecast is 150,000 boxes (5,000 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 50 percent higher than the 2006-07 final utilization. Tangerines: The U.S. tangerine crop is forecast at 434,000 tons, unchanged from the March forecast but 20 percent higher than the final utilization in 2006-07. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.80 million boxes (228,000 tons), unchanged from March's forecast but 4 percent higher than the 2006-07 utilization of 4.60 million boxes. Harvest of early tangerines is final at 2.60 million boxes and the later maturing Honey tangerine forecast remains at 2.20 million boxes. Honey tangerine harvest progressed rapidly through March and 56 percent of the rows surveyed were harvested. California's tangerine forecast is 5.10 million boxes (191,000 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but 46 percent higher than 2006-07. W. Murcott and Minneola tangerine harvests were complete or nearly complete in the desert area, while picking of these varieties was ongoing in other parts of the State. Pixie, Royal, and Honey mandarin harvests remain strong. Arizona's tangerine forecast, at 400,000 boxes (15,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 33 percent higher than last season. Lemons: The forecast for the 2007-08 U.S. lemon crop is 703,000 tons, unchanged from the January 1 forecast but down 12 percent from 2006-07. California's forecast is 17.0 million boxes (646,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 8 percent lower than last season. Harvest in the desert area was complete while picking in the Central Valley was light. Harvest was increasing on the south coast but inventories remained tight. The forecast for Arizona is 1.50 million boxes (57,000 tons), unchanged from January's forecast but 40 percent lower than last season. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.50 million boxes (68,000 tons), unchanged from the March 1 forecast but 20 percent above the 2006-07 final utilized production. Nearly all fruit picked were being processed. Florida Citrus: Warm afternoons and beneficial rainfalls over the past month contributed to new growth and helped bring out a uniform, prolific bloom in citrus groves. Fertilizer was applied with irrigation to assist in the process. Trees in well-cared for groves were reported as healthy and in excellent condition. Some growers were hedging and topping trees after harvest to maintain a tree surface conducive to large size fruit for next season. Weekly harvest of early-midseason oranges began dropping quickly at the beginning of the month and by the end of the month was nearly over. Weekly grapefruit harvest amounts have been over one million boxes, with about one-third of these fresh and two-thirds processed. Tangelo harvest was almost over for the season. Honey tangerine harvest continued steadily all month and was expected to last through April. Other grove activity included mowing and pesticide spraying. Arizona Citrus: The citrus season was winding down in Arizona. Lemon and tangerine harvests were nearly complete across the State. There was some wind scar reported this season. Valencia orange sizes were small this year. Grapefruit harvest was ongoing with reports of good sizes. Texas Citrus: Many operations reported that the citrus crop was smaller than expected. The freeze in December may have slightly affected production. Grapefruit was mostly harvested and the groves were doing well. California Citrus: Harvest was difficult in citrus groves in the beginning of the month due to excess moisture, but picked up speed as groves dried. Citrus growers irrigated, applied foliar nutrients, and treated groves to control fungus, insects, and weeds. Growers harvested tangerines, lemons, grapefruit, and Valencia and navel oranges. Rind puff and fruit drop were noted in orange groves due to the continued warm weather. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Apples, grapes, pears, pomegranates, persimmons, and stone fruit began blooming and leafing out. Grape growers continued to irrigate, cultivate, tie vines, and apply treatments for weeds, diseases, and insects. Spring strawberries and blueberries started blooming and blueberry growers continued to plant new blueberry bushes. Kiwifruit pruning was completed and new kiwifruit vines were being planted. Groves and orchards benefitted from warm weather conditions, which were excellent for pollination. Olive growers were finishing maintenance in their groves for the new season. Almond orchards bloomed throughout March and ended the month in the petal fall stage. Warm weather also reduced the threat of disease in the Sacramento Valley. Walnut and pistachio orchards began blooming and leafing out. Winter Potatoes: Production for 2008 is estimated at 2.64 million cwt, 4 percent below the January forecast but 7 percent above last year. Area harvested in California was 11,000 acres, unchanged from January but down 4 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 240 cwt per acre is down 10 cwt from January but 25 cwt above 2007. Demand for winter potatoes remained strong as harvest wound down. Spring Potatoes: Spring production for 2008 is forecast at 19.9 million cwt, down 4 percent from 2007 but 1 percent above 2006. Area for harvest is forecast at 67,200 acres, down 5 percent from last year. The average yield is forecast at 297 cwt per acre, 3 cwt above 2007. Florida's production is forecast at 8.09 million cwt, 4 percent above 2007. Florida's winter potatoes were combined with spring potatoes in 2007. Mild temperatures and adequate rainfall in Florida during January aided crop development. California spring production is forecast at 5.52 million cwt, down 10 percent from last year. Growers reported favorable growing conditions and expect to begin harvest by late April. Although yields have increased, harvested acres are expected to be 14 percent below last year. North Carolina's potato crop is forecast at 2.80 million cwt, up 4 percent from last year. Crop condition was rated at 65 percent good to excellent with 82 percent of the crop planted as of March 30. Production in Texas is forecast at 2.47 million cwt, down 16 percent from 2007. Acreage was down due to labor shortages and increases in operating costs. Arizona growers expect production to total 1.05 million cwt, down 6 percent from last year. Summer Potatoes: The final estimate of 2007 summer potato crop production is 17.0 million cwt, up 1 percent from the preliminary estimate in the January Crop Production 2007 Summary but down 6 percent from the 2006 crop. Harvested area covered 51,300 acres, up 2 percent from the 2007 preliminary estimate but down 5 percent from 2006. The average yield of 332 cwt per acre is down 3 cwt from the 2007 preliminary estimate and 5 cwt below the 2006 crop. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.70 million pounds for February 2008, down 6 percent from January but 34 percent higher than the comparable month a year ago. Total area in crop for February is estimated at 2,040 acres, down slightly from last month but 6 percent more than February 2007. Harvested area totaled 1,430 acres, up 13 percent from last month and 23 percent higher than February 2007. Orchards experienced wet weather in early February. Wind and water damage weakened older trees, allowing disease to set in. Young orchards coming into maturity more than offset older fields taken out of production. Young plantings made favorable progress as sunny, drier conditions returned toward the end of the month. Reliability of April 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which, when combined with the previous components, are used to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These 4 States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 2.2 percent. However, if you exclude the 5 abnormal production seasons (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 1.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 2.2 percent, or 1.6 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.8 percent, or 2.8 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 168,000 tons (162,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 7,000 tons to 508,000 tons (7,000 tons to 368,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times (below 7 times and above 8 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Jeff Geuder, Chief. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Greg Thessen, Head. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .(202) 720-2127 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings . . . . .(202) 720-5944 Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye . . . . . . . . . . . .(202) 720-8068 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed. . . . .(202) 720-9526 Anthony Prillaman - Peanuts, Rice . . . . . . . .(202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds . . . . . . . . .(202) 720-7369 Don Gephart - Hay, Oats, Sorghum. . . . . . . . .(202) 690-3234 Dawn Keen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops . .(202) 720-7621 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Lance Honig, Head . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .(202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco. . . . . . . . . . . . .(202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries . . . . . . . . . .(202) 720-2157 Faye Propsom - Citrus, Tropical Fruits. . . . . .(202) 720-5412 Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts . . . . . . . . . . . .(202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas .(202) 720-3250 Mike Jacobsen - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes. . . .(202) 720-4288 Kim Ritchie - Hops. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .(360) 902-1940 Faye Propsom - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes . . . . . . . . . .(202) 720-5412 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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