Cr Pr 2-2 (10-08)a Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 10, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. ***************************************************************************** Update Alert In calculating crop acreage, NASS draws upon several data sources, including farmer reported surveys, satellite imagery, and acreage data reported by producers to the Farm Service Agency (FSA). After the October 10 Crop Production report was released, FSA analysts noted a discrepancy between the acreage numbers in the raw data on the FSA mainframe and the data provided to NASS. Using the definitive source data from the FSA mainframe database, NASS repeated its acreage estimation process for dry edible beans, canola, corn, sorghum, soybeans, and sunflower. As a result, this report was reissued on October 28 to reflect corrected acreage and production estimates. All tables, charts, and narratives affected by these corrections have been updated. For specific changes, refer to the tables on pages 43-47. ******************************************************************************* Corn Production Down Slightly from September Soybean Production Up Slightly Cotton Production Down 1 Percent Orange Production Down 10 Percent from Last Season Corn production is forecast at 12.0 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast and 8 percent below 2007. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 153.9 bushels per acre, up 1.6 bushels from September and 2.8 bushels above last year. If realized, this will be the second highest yield on record, behind 2004, and production will be the second largest, behind last year. Yield forecasts are lower than last month across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and eastern Corn Belt as dry conditions during September continued to adversely affect the late developing corn crop. Forecasted yields also decreased in parts of the Delta and in Missouri where excessive moisture and high winds from Hurricanes Gustav and Ike stressed the crop. Yield prospects improved in the central Corn Belt, central Great Plains, and upper Mississippi Valley as September rains brought much needed moisture to the region. Based on administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States and farmers now expect to harvest 78.2 million acres for grain, down 1 percent from the September forecast and 10 percent below 2007. Soybean production is forecast at 2.94 billion bushels, up slightly from the September forecast and up 10 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 39.5 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from September 1 and down 2.2 bushels from 2007. Compared with September 1, yields are forecast lower or unchanged across the Corn Belt and Great Plains, with the exception of Illinois and Kansas. Yields increased or are unchanged from the September 1 forecast across the Southeast, the lower Mississippi Valley, and the mid-Atlantic States. As a result of updates that were made to planted acreage in several States based on administrative data, U.S. planted area totals 75.9 million acres. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 74.4 million acres, up 1 percent from September 1 and up 16 percent from 2007. All Cotton production is forecast at 13.7 million 480-pound bales, down 1 percent from last month and down 29 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 849 pounds per harvested acre, unchanged from last month but down 30 pounds from the record yield in 2007. Upland cotton production is forecast at 13.3 million 480-pound bales, down 1 percent from last month and 28 percent below 2007. Producers in the Southeast and Texas are expecting increased yields from last month, while producers in Louisiana and Mississippi expect lower yields due to the effects of Hurricane Gustav. Upland growers in Arkansas and New Mexico are expecting record high yields. American-Pima production is forecast at 451,000 bales, down 2 percent from last month and down 47 percent from last year. The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2008-09 season is 9.19 million tons, down 10 percent from the 2007-08 final utilization but 21 percent higher than the 2006-07 final utilization of 7.63 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 166 million boxes (7.47 million tons), decreased 2 percent from last season's final utilization but is 29 percent higher than the 2006-07 crop. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 88.0 million boxes (3.96 million tons), up 5 percent from last season and 34 percent above the 2006-07 crop. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 78.0 million boxes (3.51 million tons), is down 10 percent from the 2007-08 crop but 23 percent higher than 2006-07. The early, midseason, and navel orange production forecast is 13 percent higher than Valencia production, the largest percentage difference since the 2002-03 season. Average fruit per tree for early-midseason oranges (excluding Navels) is 2 percent higher than last season but 15 percent lower for Valencias. Fruit sizes are average on all orange varieties. Orange production in California is forecast at 44.0 million boxes (1.65 million tons), down 32 percent from 2007-08 and 4 percent below the 2006-07 crop. Navel oranges are forecast at 32.0 million boxes (1.20 million tons), down 34 percent from last season and down 7 percent from final 2006-07 utilization. The October 1 California Valencia forecast is 12.0 million boxes (450,000 tons), down 25 percent from last season but up 4 percent from the 2006-07 crop. Navel orange fruit were sizing well, and harvest should begin by mid-October. A lower than average navel yield is expected since fruit set per tree is at the lowest level on record. Harvest of the 2007-08 Valencia crop remained underway in many locations. Growers expect a decrease in production for the 2008-09 crop. The Texas October 1 forecast for all oranges is 1.50 million boxes (64,000 tons), down 13 percent from 2007-08 and 24 percent lower than the 2006-07 season. Arizona's all orange production is forecast at 250,000 boxes, down 34 percent from last season and 17 percent lower than the 2006-07 crop. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2008-09 season, at 1.59 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, is 5 percent lower than last season's final yield of 1.67 gallons per box. Projected yield from the 2008-09 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on October 10, 2008. Secretary of Agriculture Edward T. Schafer Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested Updates.....................4 Grains & Hay Corn for Grain..................................................6 Changes from Original Report................................43 Ears Per Acre...............................................30 Hay, Alfalfa...................................................14 Hay, Other.....................................................15 Rice............................................................8 Rice, by Class...............................................8 Sorghum for Grain...............................................7 Changes from Original Report................................45 Oilseeds Canola.........................................................11 Changes from Original Report................................45 Peanuts........................................................11 Soybeans........................................................9 Changes from Original Report................................44 Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet..........................31 Sunflower......................................................10 Changes from Original Report................................46 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton.........................................................12 Cumulative Bolls Counts.....................................32 Cottonseed.....................................................13 Sugarbeets.....................................................16 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed...................................16 Tobacco........................................................18 Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Dry Edible Beans................................................17 Changes from Original Report................................47 Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Apples.........................................................21 Grapes.........................................................23 Papayas........................................................23 Prunes.........................................................23 Pecans.........................................................22 Citrus Grapefruit.....................................................20 Lemons.........................................................20 Oranges........................................................20 Tangelos.......................................................20 Tangerines.....................................................20 Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops Potatoes.......................................................18 Crop Comments..........................................................35 Crop Summary...........................................................24 Information Contacts...................................................50 Reliability of Production Data in this Report..........................48 Weather Maps...........................................................33 Weather Summary........................................................34 Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Corn : Sorghum : Soybeans State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- :Planted 1/: Harvested :Planted 1/: Harvested :Planted 1/: Harvested ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : AL : 260 240 12 8 360 350 AZ : 45 20 55 35 AR : 450 440 120 110 3,300 3,250 CA : 670 215 45 15 CO : 1,250 1,120 230 180 CT : 27 DE : 160 152 195 192 FL : 75 40 32 29 GA : 370 320 60 40 430 410 ID : 295 70 IL : 12,100 11,700 80 77 9,200 9,050 IN : 5,700 5,450 5,450 5,400 IA : 13,300 12,500 9,800 9,600 KS : 3,800 3,600 2,900 2,750 3,300 3,200 KY : 1,190 1,110 12 10 1,400 1,390 LA : 520 510 120 115 1,050 990 ME : 29 MD : 460 390 500 490 MA : 19 MI : 2,350 2,070 1,900 1,890 MN : 7,800 7,250 7,050 6,900 MS : 720 700 85 83 2,010 1,980 MO : 2,800 2,600 90 85 5,250 5,050 MT : 79 34 NE : 8,800 8,550 310 220 4,900 4,850 NV : 4 NH : 15 NJ : 85 74 92 89 NM : 140 60 120 80 NY : 1,090 610 230 226 NC : 900 830 16 13 1,690 1,660 ND : 2,550 2,300 3,800 3,720 OH : 3,250 3,050 4,500 4,480 OK : 360 330 350 320 390 360 OR : 57 30 PA : 1,350 930 16 4 445 440 RI : 2 SC : 355 325 10 7 540 520 SD : 4,750 4,300 170 110 4,100 4,040 TN : 690 630 26 23 1,500 1,460 TX : 2,300 2,100 3,500 3,100 225 210 UT : 65 22 VT : 94 VA : 470 350 590 570 WA : 160 75 WV : 43 26 19 18 WI : 3,800 3,000 1,630 1,560 WY : 90 54 : US : 85,889 78,177 8,327 7,385 75,878 74,374 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from previous report. Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Canola : Sunflower : : :----------------------------------------------------- : : : Oil : Non-Oil : All :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CO : 165.0 155.0 25.0 23.0 190.0 178.0 KS : 220.0 205.0 22.0 20.0 242.0 225.0 MN : 23.0 22.0 80.0 77.0 40.0 38.0 120.0 115.0 MT : 7.5 7.1 NE : 45.0 42.0 19.0 18.0 64.0 60.0 ND : 920.0 900.0 950.0 915.0 150.0 145.0 1,100.0 1,060.0 SD : 550.0 522.0 50.0 48.0 600.0 570.0 TX : 65.0 59.0 35.0 33.0 100.0 92.0 : Oth : Sts 2/: 64.5 56.9 79.0 74.0 12.0 11.0 91.0 85.0 : US :1,015.0 986.0 2,154.0 2,049.0 353.0 336.0 2,507.0 2,385.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from previous report. 2/ Other States for Canola include CO, ID, KS, MI, OK, OR, and WA. Other States for Sunflower include CA, IL, MI, MO, MT, OK, WI, and WY. Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2008 : : : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 :------------------: 2007 : 2008 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels ------- --- 1,000 Bushels --- : AL : 280 240 79.0 92.0 92.0 22,120 22,080 AR : 590 440 168.0 165.0 160.0 99,120 70,400 CA : 200 215 180.0 175.0 180.0 36,000 38,700 CO : 1,060 1,120 142.0 145.0 140.0 150,520 156,800 DE : 185 152 97.0 120.0 124.0 17,945 18,848 GA : 450 320 130.0 135.0 130.0 58,500 41,600 IL : 13,050 11,700 175.0 172.0 177.0 2,283,750 2,070,900 IN : 6,370 5,450 155.0 162.0 160.0 987,350 872,000 IA : 13,850 12,500 171.0 168.0 172.0 2,368,350 2,150,000 KS : 3,700 3,600 140.0 134.0 137.0 518,000 493,200 KY : 1,360 1,110 129.0 137.0 133.0 175,440 147,630 LA : 730 510 165.0 150.0 145.0 120,450 73,950 MD : 455 390 103.0 126.0 121.0 46,865 47,190 MI : 2,350 2,070 124.0 140.0 140.0 291,400 289,800 MN : 7,800 7,250 146.0 163.0 167.0 1,138,800 1,210,750 MS : 940 700 150.0 140.0 143.0 141,000 100,100 MO : 3,250 2,600 142.0 142.0 140.0 461,500 364,000 NE : 9,200 8,550 160.0 157.0 161.0 1,472,000 1,376,550 NJ : 82 74 125.0 115.0 115.0 10,250 8,510 NM : 55 60 175.0 175.0 175.0 9,625 10,500 NY : 550 610 127.0 131.0 133.0 69,850 81,130 NC : 1,020 830 100.0 75.0 70.0 102,000 58,100 ND : 2,350 2,300 116.0 125.0 127.0 272,600 292,100 OH : 3,610 3,050 150.0 152.0 147.0 541,500 448,350 OK : 270 330 145.0 134.0 134.0 39,150 44,220 PA : 980 930 128.0 122.0 122.0 125,440 113,460 SC : 370 325 100.0 55.0 52.0 37,000 16,900 SD : 4,500 4,300 121.0 135.0 132.0 544,500 567,600 TN : 785 630 106.0 115.0 111.0 83,210 69,930 TX : 2,000 2,100 148.0 124.0 127.0 296,000 266,700 VA : 405 350 85.0 104.0 99.0 34,425 34,650 WA : 120 75 210.0 210.0 210.0 25,200 15,750 WI : 3,280 3,000 135.0 137.0 139.0 442,800 417,000 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 345 296 148.5 150.7 148.5 51,233 43,970 : US : 86,542 78,177 151.1 152.3 153.9 13,073,893 12,033,368 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, FL, ID, MT, OR, UT, WV, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2008 Summary." Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2008 : : : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 :-----------------: 2007 : 2008 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ------- Bushels ------ 1,000 Bushels : AR : 215 110 94.0 97.0 90.0 20,210 9,900 CO : 150 180 37.0 27.0 27.0 5,550 4,860 IL : 77 77 81.0 85.0 85.0 6,237 6,545 KS : 2,650 2,750 80.0 76.0 76.0 212,000 209,000 LA : 245 115 97.0 93.0 93.0 23,765 10,695 MO : 105 85 96.0 95.0 95.0 10,080 8,075 NE : 240 220 98.0 89.0 89.0 23,520 19,580 NM : 75 80 40.0 45.0 41.0 3,000 3,280 OK : 220 320 58.0 46.0 47.0 12,760 15,040 SD : 130 110 62.0 65.0 65.0 8,060 7,150 TX : 2,450 3,100 66.0 52.0 52.0 161,700 161,200 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 248 238 73.0 69.9 69.7 18,111 16,596 : US : 6,805 7,385 74.2 66.1 63.9 504,993 471,921 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, KY, MS, NC, PA, SC, and TN. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2008 Summary." Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 2008 : : : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 :-------------------: 2007 : 2008 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Pounds -------- ---- 1,000 Cwt --- : AR : 1,325 1,345 7,130 7,200 6,900 94,487 92,805 CA : 533 517 8,220 7,800 8,100 43,822 41,877 LA : 378 465 6,140 5,700 5,700 23,222 26,505 MS : 189 229 7,450 7,400 7,200 14,081 16,488 MO : 178 199 6,900 7,100 7,100 12,279 14,129 TX : 145 169 6,600 7,200 7,300 9,565 12,337 : US : 2,748 2,924 7,185 7,076 6,982 197,456 204,141 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rice: Production by Class, United States, 2006-2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain 1/ : All : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 2006 : 146,214 43,802 3,720 193,736 2007 : 142,182 51,184 4,090 197,456 2008 2/ : 155,239 45,665 3,237 204,141 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Sweet rice production included with short grain. 2/ The 2008 rice production by class forecasts are based on class harvested acreage estimates and the 5-year average class yield compared to the all rice yield. Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2008 : : : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 :-------------------: 2007 : 2008 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 185 350 21.0 28.0 29.0 3,885 10,150 AR : 2,820 3,250 36.0 38.0 39.0 101,520 126,750 DE : 155 192 26.0 28.0 28.0 4,030 5,376 GA : 285 410 30.0 30.0 30.0 8,550 12,300 IL : 8,280 9,050 43.5 42.0 45.0 360,180 407,250 IN : 4,790 5,400 46.0 43.0 42.0 220,340 226,800 IA : 8,630 9,600 52.0 47.0 46.0 448,760 441,600 KS : 2,610 3,200 33.0 35.0 36.0 86,130 115,200 KY : 1,100 1,390 27.5 36.0 34.0 30,250 47,260 LA : 600 990 43.0 32.0 35.0 25,800 34,650 MD : 390 490 27.0 29.0 30.0 10,530 14,700 MI : 1,790 1,890 39.5 38.0 37.0 70,705 69,930 MN : 6,290 6,900 42.5 40.0 40.0 267,325 276,000 MS : 1,440 1,980 40.5 38.0 38.0 58,320 75,240 MO : 4,670 5,050 37.5 37.0 37.0 175,125 186,850 NE : 3,850 4,850 51.0 48.0 47.0 196,350 227,950 NJ : 80 89 31.0 30.0 28.0 2,480 2,492 NY : 203 226 39.0 46.0 44.0 7,917 9,944 NC : 1,380 1,660 22.0 28.0 32.0 30,360 53,120 ND : 3,060 3,720 35.5 35.0 31.0 108,630 115,320 OH : 4,240 4,480 47.0 42.0 38.0 199,280 170,240 OK : 180 360 26.0 27.0 27.0 4,680 9,720 PA : 425 440 41.0 39.0 39.0 17,425 17,160 SC : 440 520 18.5 27.0 28.0 8,140 14,560 SD : 3,240 4,040 42.0 40.0 36.0 136,080 145,440 TN : 1,010 1,460 19.0 30.0 30.0 19,190 43,800 TX : 92 210 37.5 23.0 22.0 3,450 4,620 VA : 500 570 27.5 27.0 28.0 13,750 15,960 WI : 1,380 1,560 40.5 38.0 36.0 55,890 56,160 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 26 47 28.8 33.3 37.7 750 1,771 : US : 64,141 74,374 41.7 40.0 39.5 2,675,822 2,938,313 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include FL and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2008 Summary." Sunflower: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2006-2007 1/ and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Varietal : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Type & :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 2/ : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : Oil : CO : 100.0 155.0 1,150 82,500 115,000 KS : 145.0 205.0 1,450 156,000 210,250 MN : 88.0 77.0 1,600 98,050 140,800 NE : 33.0 42.0 1,240 37,200 40,920 ND : 895.0 915.0 1,440 932,400 1,288,800 SD : 389.0 522.0 1,560 397,700 606,840 TX : 13.0 59.0 1,700 13,650 22,100 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 54.0 74.0 1,319 70,466 71,210 : US :1,717.0 2,049.0 1,454 1,787,966 2,495,920 : Non-Oil : CO : 13.0 23.0 1,600 26,100 20,800 KS : 16.0 20.0 1,500 12,060 24,000 MN : 39.0 38.0 1,300 51,200 50,700 NE : 13.0 18.0 1,350 25,200 17,550 ND : 160.0 145.0 1,270 182,400 203,200 SD : 20.0 48.0 1,700 39,900 34,000 TX : 24.0 33.0 1,300 7,700 31,200 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 7.5 11.0 1,159 11,087 8,695 : US : 292.5 336.0 1,334 355,647 390,145 : All : CO : 113.0 178.0 1,202 990 108,600 135,800 176,300 KS : 161.0 225.0 1,455 1,381 168,060 234,250 310,750 MN : 127.0 115.0 1,508 1,583 149,250 191,500 182,100 NE : 46.0 60.0 1,271 1,400 62,400 58,470 84,000 ND :1,055.0 1,060.0 1,414 1,445 1,114,800 1,492,000 1,531,200 SD : 409.0 570.0 1,567 1,668 437,600 640,840 950,940 TX : 37.0 92.0 1,441 1,064 21,350 53,300 97,900 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 61.5 85.0 1,299 1,429 81,553 79,905 121,450 : US :2,009.5 2,385.0 1,436 1,448 2,143,613 2,886,065 3,454,640 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 Revised. 2/ 2008 yield and production estimates for oil and non-oil varieties will be published in the "Crop Production 2008 Summary." 3/ Other States include CA, IL, MI, MO, MT, OK, WI, and WY. Peanuts: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield and Production by State and United States, 2006-2007 1/ and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : AL : 165.0 160.0 195.0 163.0 157.0 191.0 FL : 130.0 130.0 145.0 120.0 119.0 133.0 GA : 580.0 530.0 695.0 575.0 520.0 685.0 MS : 17.0 19.0 22.0 16.0 18.0 21.0 NM : 12.0 10.0 8.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 NC : 85.0 92.0 99.0 84.0 90.0 98.0 OK : 23.0 18.0 19.0 22.0 17.0 18.0 SC : 59.0 59.0 71.0 56.0 56.0 67.0 TX : 155.0 190.0 255.0 145.0 187.0 250.0 VA : 17.0 22.0 24.0 17.0 21.0 23.0 : US : 1,243.0 1,230.0 1,533.0 1,210.0 1,195.0 1,494.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2008 : : : : 2006 : 2007 :-------------------: 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- Pounds ------------- -------- 1,000 Pounds -------- : AL : 2,500 2,550 3,000 3,100 407,500 400,350 592,100 FL : 2,500 2,700 3,100 3,400 300,000 321,300 452,200 GA : 2,780 3,120 3,150 3,250 1,598,500 1,622,400 2,226,250 MS : 2,900 3,300 3,300 3,400 46,400 59,400 71,400 NM : 3,600 3,500 3,500 3,500 43,200 35,000 28,000 NC : 3,200 2,900 2,900 3,200 268,800 261,000 313,600 OK : 2,850 3,400 3,800 3,900 62,700 57,800 70,200 SC : 3,000 3,100 3,400 3,500 168,000 173,600 234,500 TX : 3,550 3,700 3,500 3,500 514,750 691,900 875,000 VA : 3,200 2,500 2,900 2,800 54,400 52,500 64,400 : US : 2,863 3,076 3,188 3,298 3,464,250 3,675,250 4,927,650 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2007 Revised. Canola: Area Harvested, Yield and Production by State and United States, 2006-2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : MN : 30.0 22.0 1,360 1,650 35,910 40,800 36,300 MT : 7.7 7.1 1,310 1,300 10,976 10,087 9,230 ND :1,070.0 900.0 1,240 1,520 1,280,950 1,326,800 1,368,000 : Oth Sts 1/ : 55.3 56.9 1,377 1,394 66,496 76,143 79,316 : US :1,163.0 986.0 1,250 1,514 1,394,332 1,453,830 1,492,846 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include CO, ID, KS, MI, OK, OR, and WA. Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :---------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 2008 : : State : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 :-------------------: 2007 : 2008 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :--- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 385.0 285.0 519 714 733 416.0 435.0 AZ : 168.0 128.0 1,469 1,425 1,425 514.0 380.0 AR : 850.0 640.0 1,071 1,125 1,125 1,896.0 1,500.0 CA : 194.0 117.0 1,608 1,600 1,559 650.0 380.0 FL : 81.0 65.0 687 738 775 116.0 105.0 GA : 995.0 940.0 801 797 812 1,660.0 1,590.0 KS : 43.0 28.0 639 617 686 57.2 40.0 LA : 330.0 260.0 1,017 775 591 699.0 320.0 MS : 655.0 360.0 966 1,027 907 1,318.0 680.0 MO : 379.0 307.0 968 969 1,048 764.0 670.0 NM : 39.0 34.0 1,095 988 1,101 89.0 78.0 NC : 490.0 438.0 767 789 778 783.0 710.0 OK : 165.0 155.0 817 898 805 281.0 260.0 SC : 158.0 134.0 486 688 795 160.0 222.0 TN : 510.0 280.0 565 806 840 600.0 490.0 TX : 4,700.0 3,350.0 843 748 759 8,250.0 5,300.0 VA : 59.0 64.0 829 788 750 101.9 100.0 : US :10,201.0 7,585.0 864 839 839 18,355.1 13,260.0 : Amer-Pima: AZ : 2.5 1.0 883 960 960 4.6 2.0 CA : 257.0 151.0 1,481 1,335 1,335 793.0 420.0 NM : 4.6 3.0 856 800 800 8.2 5.0 TX : 24.0 15.0 920 1,024 768 46.0 24.0 : US : 288.1 170.0 1,419 1,296 1,273 851.8 451.0 : All : AL : 385.0 285.0 519 714 733 416.0 435.0 AZ : 170.5 129.0 1,460 1,421 1,421 518.6 382.0 AR : 850.0 640.0 1,071 1,125 1,125 1,896.0 1,500.0 CA : 451.0 268.0 1,536 1,451 1,433 1,443.0 800.0 FL : 81.0 65.0 687 738 775 116.0 105.0 GA : 995.0 940.0 801 797 812 1,660.0 1,590.0 KS : 43.0 28.0 639 617 686 57.2 40.0 LA : 330.0 260.0 1,017 775 591 699.0 320.0 MS : 655.0 360.0 966 1,027 907 1,318.0 680.0 MO : 379.0 307.0 968 969 1,048 764.0 670.0 NM : 43.6 37.0 1,070 973 1,077 97.2 83.0 NC : 490.0 438.0 767 789 778 783.0 710.0 OK : 165.0 155.0 817 898 805 281.0 260.0 SC : 158.0 134.0 486 688 795 160.0 222.0 TN : 510.0 280.0 565 806 840 600.0 490.0 TX : 4,724.0 3,365.0 843 749 759 8,296.0 5,324.0 VA : 59.0 64.0 829 788 750 101.9 100.0 : US :10,489.1 7,755.0 879 849 849 19,206.9 13,711.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-lb. net weight bale. Cottonseed: Production, United States, 2006-2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 7,347.9 6,588.7 4,666.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2006-2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : AZ : 250 260 8.30 9.30 2,075 2,075 2,418 CA : 990 950 7.20 7.10 7,480 7,128 6,745 CO : 800 830 3.70 3.50 2,964 2,960 2,905 ID : 1,200 1,130 4.00 4.40 5,074 4,800 4,972 IL : 380 350 3.70 4.10 1,804 1,406 1,435 IN : 320 320 2.70 4.00 1,476 864 1,280 IA : 1,140 1,100 4.20 4.20 4,602 4,788 4,620 KS : 800 780 3.50 3.90 3,610 2,800 3,042 KY : 300 240 1.80 2.70 1,036 540 648 MI : 800 750 2.90 3.20 2,988 2,320 2,400 MN : 1,150 1,100 3.10 3.60 4,455 3,565 3,960 MO : 400 400 2.85 3.00 1,131 1,140 1,200 MT : 1,650 1,650 2.30 2.00 3,255 3,795 3,300 NE : 1,150 1,050 3.65 3.60 4,125 4,198 3,780 NV : 265 260 4.90 4.60 1,377 1,299 1,196 NM : 260 250 5.20 5.30 1,122 1,352 1,325 NY : 420 430 2.40 2.60 777 1,008 1,118 ND : 1,650 1,550 2.05 1.65 1,740 3,383 2,558 OH : 430 550 3.30 3.10 1,645 1,419 1,705 OK : 380 300 3.80 4.00 798 1,444 1,200 OR : 400 420 4.10 4.30 1,892 1,640 1,806 PA : 600 520 3.00 2.90 1,500 1,800 1,508 SD : 2,250 2,100 2.25 2.50 2,880 5,063 5,250 TX : 140 150 5.50 4.60 675 770 690 UT : 560 540 4.20 4.10 2,240 2,352 2,214 VA : 110 100 2.50 3.30 396 275 330 WA : 440 380 5.40 4.50 2,156 2,376 1,710 WI : 1,650 1,500 2.40 2.60 4,620 3,960 3,900 WY : 570 600 2.70 2.70 1,400 1,539 1,620 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 215 218 2.40 2.70 713 516 589 : US : 21,670 20,778 3.35 3.44 72,006 72,575 71,424 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AR, CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NC, RI, TN, VT, and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2008 Summary." All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2006-2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : AL : 800 850 1.70 2.60 1,440 1,360 2,210 AR : 1,560 1,390 1.90 2.00 2,465 2,964 2,780 CA : 620 590 3.70 3.80 2,160 2,294 2,242 CO : 750 750 1.90 1.50 1,425 1,425 1,125 GA : 670 700 1.80 2.00 1,170 1,206 1,400 ID : 300 330 2.10 2.30 646 630 759 IL : 300 270 1.70 2.20 704 510 594 IN : 340 320 2.00 2.60 725 680 832 IA : 340 350 2.30 2.50 704 782 875 KS : 2,100 2,000 1.70 1.90 2,940 3,570 3,800 KY : 2,400 2,300 1.50 2.00 5,280 3,600 4,600 LA : 400 440 3.00 3.20 975 1,200 1,408 MI : 280 280 2.00 1.80 682 560 504 MN : 730 600 1.50 1.90 1,224 1,095 1,140 MS : 850 750 2.20 2.40 1,560 1,870 1,800 MO : 3,650 3,750 1.75 2.10 5,813 6,388 7,875 MT : 900 1,000 1.50 1.30 1,065 1,350 1,300 NE : 1,500 1,450 1.40 1.40 1,628 2,100 2,030 NY : 940 1,000 1.80 2.00 2,013 1,692 2,000 NC : 690 790 1.50 2.30 1,632 1,035 1,817 ND : 1,130 1,300 1.60 1.25 1,397 1,808 1,625 OH : 720 710 2.10 2.70 1,776 1,512 1,917 OK : 2,800 2,800 2.00 2.00 2,800 5,600 5,600 OR : 600 590 2.20 2.40 1,364 1,320 1,416 PA : 1,200 1,230 2.00 2.20 3,625 2,400 2,706 SD : 1,550 1,600 1.60 1.60 1,300 2,480 2,560 TN : 1,700 1,800 1.40 2.00 4,140 2,380 3,600 TX : 5,200 4,600 2.80 1.80 8,000 14,560 8,280 VA : 1,230 1,350 1.80 2.20 2,486 2,214 2,970 WA : 350 330 3.10 2.80 957 1,085 924 WV : 575 580 1.50 2.10 944 863 1,218 WI : 370 450 1.50 1.60 784 555 720 WY : 530 600 1.60 1.30 715 848 780 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,880 1,811 2.02 2.03 3,791 3,793 3,669 : US : 39,955 39,661 1.95 1.99 70,330 77,729 79,076 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, CT, DE, FL, ME, MD, MA, NV, NH, NJ, NM, RI, SC, UT, and VT. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2008 Summary." Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2008 : : : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 :-------------------: 2007 : 2008 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- --------- Tons --------- -- 1,000 Tons -- : CA : 39.1 25.3 37.5 39.1 39.0 1,466 987 CO : 29.2 28.6 26.2 27.0 27.0 765 772 ID : 167.0 117.0 34.4 30.5 30.5 5,745 3,569 MI : 149.0 136.0 23.4 24.5 28.5 3,487 3,876 MN : 481.0 432.0 23.8 22.7 25.0 11,448 10,800 MT : 47.0 30.7 24.7 25.5 25.5 1,161 783 NE : 44.3 37.0 23.5 23.5 23.5 1,041 870 ND : 247.0 212.0 23.1 23.0 25.5 5,706 5,406 OR : 11.0 5.9 31.9 31.2 31.2 351 184 WA : 2.0 1.6 42.0 39.4 39.4 84 63 WY : 30.2 27.0 21.8 24.0 24.0 658 648 : US : 1,246.8 1,053.1 25.6 24.7 26.5 31,912 27,958 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA. Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2008 : : : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 :-------------------: 2007 : 2008 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Tons --------- -- 1,000 Tons -- : FL : 393.0 400.0 36.1 39.4 39.0 14,177 15,600 HI : 22.9 22.0 68.3 75.8 75.8 1,564 1,668 LA : 420.0 405.0 30.4 27.0 27.0 12,768 10,935 TX : 43.7 41.5 33.4 39.8 39.8 1,460 1,652 : US : 879.6 868.5 34.1 34.6 34.4 29,969 29,855 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 1/ : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 59.0 52.0 58.0 51.0 CO : 48.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 ID : 90.0 80.0 89.0 79.0 KS : 6.5 6.0 6.0 5.5 MI : 200.0 195.0 195.0 190.0 MN : 150.0 150.0 145.0 140.0 MT 2/ : 18.3 15.0 16.6 13.0 NE : 110.0 135.0 107.0 125.0 NM 2/ : 7.5 8.0 7.5 8.0 NY : 17.0 17.0 16.5 16.4 ND : 690.0 660.0 665.0 630.0 OR 2/ : 8.0 4.8 7.9 4.7 SD : 13.0 10.0 11.7 9.5 TX : 17.0 23.5 16.2 21.0 UT 2/ : 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 WA : 60.0 50.0 60.0 50.0 WI 2/ : 6.1 6.4 6.0 6.3 WY : 25.0 31.0 24.0 30.0 : US : 1,526.9 1,492.9 1,478.7 1,424.6 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield 3/ : Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Pounds ------ ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : CA : 2,090 2,100 1,212 1,071 CO : 1,600 1,800 736 792 ID : 1,800 1,950 1,602 1,541 KS : 2,300 2,100 138 116 MI : 1,600 1,900 3,120 3,610 MN : 1,800 1,800 2,610 2,520 MT 2/ : 1,670 1,900 278 247 NE : 2,260 2,350 2,418 2,938 NM 2/ : 2,400 2,300 180 184 NY : 1,360 1,900 224 312 ND : 1,590 1,550 10,574 9,765 OR 2/ : 1,850 1,800 146 85 SD : 1,860 1,900 218 181 TX : 1,500 1,100 243 231 UT 2/ : 400 750 5 9 WA : 1,700 1,700 1,020 850 WI 2/ : 1,530 2,000 92 126 WY : 2,310 2,300 555 690 : US : 1,716 1,774 25,371 25,268 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from the August "Crop Production" report. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ Cleaned basis. Winter Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres CA : 11.5 11.0 11.5 11.0 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- Cwt ------- ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : CA : 215 230 2,473 2,530 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2008 : : : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 :-------------------: 2007 : 2008 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- -------- Pounds -------- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : CT : 2,900 2,600 1,699 1,581 1,546 4,927 4,020 GA : 18,500 16,500 2,150 2,350 2,200 39,775 36,300 KY : 89,200 86,400 2,136 2,343 2,343 190,560 202,450 MA : 1,320 690 1,675 1,445 1,445 2,211 997 MO 1/ : 1,600 1,450 2,330 2,100 2,100 3,728 3,045 NC : 170,000 175,000 2,255 2,288 2,239 383,420 391,800 OH : 3,500 3,100 2,050 1,950 1,950 7,175 6,045 PA : 7,900 7,900 2,177 2,159 2,232 17,200 17,630 SC : 20,500 20,000 2,250 2,200 2,100 46,125 42,000 TN : 19,980 21,800 1,934 2,388 2,425 38,636 52,870 VA : 20,600 20,600 2,240 2,232 2,319 46,142 47,770 : US : 356,000 356,040 2,191 2,289 2,261 779,899 804,927 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class, Type, and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds --- 1,000 Pounds : Class 1, Flue-cured : GA : 18,500 16,500 2,150 2,200 39,775 36,300 NC : 166,000 172,000 2,270 2,250 376,820 387,000 SC : 20,500 20,000 2,250 2,100 46,125 42,000 VA : 18,000 18,000 2,280 2,400 41,040 43,200 US : 223,000 226,500 2,259 2,245 503,760 508,500 Class 2, Fire-cured : KY : 8,000 10,700 3,100 3,500 24,800 37,450 TN : 6,200 7,200 2,600 3,200 16,120 23,040 VA : 400 500 1,920 2,000 768 1,000 US : 14,600 18,400 2,855 3,342 41,688 61,490 Class 3, Air-cured : Light Air-cured : Burley : KY : 77,000 69,000 2,000 2,100 154,000 144,900 MO 1/ : 1,600 1,450 2,330 2,100 3,728 3,045 NC : 4,000 3,000 1,650 1,600 6,600 4,800 OH : 3,500 3,100 2,050 1,950 7,175 6,045 PA : 5,000 4,300 2,150 2,300 10,750 9,890 TN : 13,000 13,000 1,600 1,950 20,800 25,350 VA : 2,200 2,100 1,970 1,700 4,334 3,570 US : 106,300 95,950 1,951 2,059 207,387 197,600 Southern MD Belt : PA : 1,100 1,800 2,100 2,100 2,310 3,780 Total Light Air-cured : 107,400 97,750 1,952 2,060 209,697 201,380 Dark Air-cured : KY : 4,200 6,700 2,800 3,000 11,760 20,100 TN : 780 1,600 2,200 2,800 1,716 4,480 US : 4,980 8,300 2,706 2,961 13,476 24,580 Class 4, Cigar Filler : PA Seedleaf : PA : 1,800 1,800 2,300 2,200 4,140 3,960 Class 5, Cigar Binder : CT Valley Binder : CT : 1,900 1,700 1,830 1,650 3,477 2,805 MA : 1,100 500 1,750 1,500 1,925 750 US : 3,000 2,200 1,801 1,616 5,402 3,555 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper : CT Valley Shade-grown : CT : 1,000 900 1,450 1,350 1,450 1,215 MA : 220 190 1,300 1,300 286 247 US : 1,220 1,090 1,423 1,341 1,736 1,462 All Cigar Types : 6,020 5,090 1,873 1,764 11,278 8,977 : All Tobacco : 356,000 356,040 2,191 2,261 779,899 804,927 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2006-07, 2007-08 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2006-07 : 2007-08 : 2008-09 : 2006-07 : 2007-08 : 2008-09 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 200 230 150 7 9 6 CA : 34,500 48,500 32,000 1,294 1,819 1,200 FL : 65,600 83,500 88,000 2,952 3,757 3,960 TX : 1,600 1,500 1,300 68 64 55 US : 101,900 133,730 121,450 4,321 5,649 5,221 Valencia : AZ : 100 150 100 4 6 4 CA : 11,500 16,000 12,000 431 600 450 FL : 63,400 86,700 78,000 2,853 3,902 3,510 TX : 380 234 200 16 10 9 US : 75,380 103,084 90,300 3,304 4,518 3,973 All : AZ : 300 380 250 11 15 10 CA : 46,000 64,500 44,000 1,725 2,419 1,650 FL : 129,000 170,200 166,000 5,805 7,659 7,470 TX : 1,980 1,734 1,500 84 74 64 US : 177,280 236,814 211,750 7,625 10,167 9,194 Grapefruit : White : FL : 9,300 9,000 7,000 395 383 298 Colored : FL : 17,900 17,600 16,000 761 748 680 All : AZ : 100 100 150 3 3 5 CA : 5,500 5,700 5,500 184 191 184 FL : 27,200 26,600 23,000 1,156 1,131 978 TX : 7,100 6,100 5,300 284 244 212 US : 39,900 38,500 33,950 1,627 1,569 1,379 Tangerines and Manda: AZ 4/ : 300 400 300 11 15 11 CA 4/ : 3,500 5,700 6,300 131 214 236 FL : 4,600 5,500 4,900 219 261 233 US : 8,400 11,600 11,500 361 490 480 Lemons : AZ : 2,500 1,500 2,500 95 57 95 CA : 18,500 17,000 19,000 703 646 722 US : 21,000 18,500 21,500 798 703 817 Tangelos : FL : 1,250 1,500 1,500 56 68 68 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; Temples-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States, 2006-2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds : AZ 2/ : 30.1 23.0 20.0 CA 2/ : 355.0 345.0 320.0 CO 2/ : 15.0 13.0 15.0 CT 2/ : 17.5 23.0 20.0 GA 2/ : 13.0 2.0 12.0 ID 2/ : 60.0 35.0 55.0 IL 2/ : 52.5 5.0 52.0 IN 2/ : 55.0 33.0 42.0 IA 2/ : 6.7 2.7 4.7 KY 2/ : 6.9 0.6 9.0 ME 2/ : 23.5 40.0 37.0 MD 2/ : 34.0 33.0 26.0 MA 2/ : 32.0 38.5 38.0 MI : 880.0 770.0 530.0 MN 2/ : 23.0 26.0 23.1 MO 2/ : 53.0 3.0 54.0 NH 2/ : 28.5 34.5 35.5 NJ 2/ : 45.0 42.0 40.0 NY : 1,260.0 1,310.0 1,200.0 NC : 173.0 60.0 165.0 OH 2/ : 102.0 55.6 95.0 OR 2/ : 150.0 135.0 170.0 PA : 470.0 470.0 440.0 RI 2/ : 2.0 2.6 2.4 SC 2/ : 3.0 0.3 8.0 TN 2/ : 10.0 0.1 9.0 UT 2/ : 10.0 19.0 9.0 VT 2/ : 36.0 38.0 40.5 VA : 220.0 215.0 230.0 WA : 5,550.0 5,200.0 5,400.0 WV : 90.0 80.0 85.0 WI 2/ : 65.0 59.0 55.0 : US : 9,871.7 9,113.9 9,242.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Pecans: Production by Variety, State, and United States, 2006-2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Variety : Utilized Production (In-Shell Basis) and :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds Improved : Varieties 1/ : AL : 5,400 8,700 7,000 AZ : 14,000 23,000 15,500 AR : 1,150 1,500 550 CA : 3,400 4,400 4,000 FL : 200 1,700 1,400 GA : 36,000 135,000 68,000 LA : 3,500 3,000 2,500 MS : 2,000 2,200 900 MO : 160 2 140 NM : 47,000 74,000 45,000 NC : 420 160 510 OK : 5,000 3,000 2,000 SC : 900 1,500 1,800 TX : 33,000 44,000 22,000 : US : 152,130 302,162 171,300 : Native and : Seedling : AL : 600 1,300 1,000 AR : 1,050 800 450 FL : 300 200 300 GA : 6,000 15,000 2,000 KS : 2,000 500 1,500 LA : 17,500 11,000 4,500 MS : 500 800 400 MO : 940 3 820 NC : 80 40 90 OK : 12,000 27,000 11,000 SC : 200 500 700 TX : 14,000 26,000 10,000 : US : 55,170 83,143 32,760 : All Pecans : AL : 6,000 10,000 8,000 AZ : 14,000 23,000 15,500 AR : 2,200 2,300 1,000 CA : 3,400 4,400 4,000 FL : 500 1,900 1,700 GA : 42,000 150,000 70,000 KS : 2,000 500 1,500 LA : 21,000 14,000 7,000 MS : 2,500 3,000 1,300 MO : 1,100 5 960 NM : 47,000 74,000 45,000 NC : 500 200 600 OK : 17,000 30,000 13,000 SC : 1,100 2,000 2,500 TX : 47,000 70,000 32,000 : US : 207,300 385,305 204,060 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2006-2007 and Forecasted October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :-------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : AZ 1/ : 900 1,100 900 AR 1/ : 2,300 500 2,200 CA : All Types : 5,726,000 6,211,000 6,430,000 Wine : 3,176,000 3,287,000 3,400,000 Table 2/ : 717,000 791,000 830,000 Raisin 2/ : 1,833,000 2,133,000 2,200,000 GA 1/ : 2,900 2,900 3,500 MI : 32,500 100,100 71,000 MO 1/ : 4,170 2,500 5,500 NY : 155,000 180,000 165,000 NC 1/ : 4,580 3,200 5,500 OH 1/ : 3,100 7,600 8,500 OR 1/ : 34,400 38,600 37,000 PA : 82,000 84,000 93,000 TX 1/ : 7,100 4,900 10,500 VA 1/ : 6,200 5,600 8,500 WA : All Types : 316,000 376,000 365,000 Wine : 120,000 127,000 135,000 Juice : 196,000 249,000 230,000 : US : 6,377,150 7,018,000 7,206,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 2/ Fresh basis. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Jul : 1,845 2,040 1,190 1,330 2,590 1,995 Aug : 2,105 2,040 1,370 1,330 2,815 2,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Prunes (Dried Plums): Total Production, California, 2006-2007 and Forecasted 2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : Prunes (Dried Basis) : 198,000 83,000 120,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecast was carried forward from an earlier forecast. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,020.0 4,234.0 3,508.0 3,767.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 93,600.0 85,889.0 86,542.0 78,177.0 Corn for Silage : 6,071.0 Hay, All : 61,625.0 60,439.0 Alfalfa : 21,670.0 20,778.0 All Other : 39,955.0 39,661.0 Oats : 3,760.0 3,217.0 1,505.0 1,395.0 Proso Millet : 570.0 605.0 515.0 Rice : 2,761.0 2,940.0 2,748.0 2,924.0 Rye : 1,376.0 1,260.0 289.0 269.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 7,718.0 8,327.0 6,805.0 7,385.0 Sorghum for Silage : 399.0 Wheat, All : 60,433.0 63,047.0 51,011.0 55,685.0 Winter : 44,987.0 46,181.0 35,952.0 39,614.0 Durum : 2,149.0 2,731.0 2,112.0 2,584.0 Other Spring : 13,297.0 14,135.0 12,947.0 13,487.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,183.0 1,015.0 1,163.0 986.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 354.0 340.0 349.0 333.0 Mustard Seed : 56.0 67.0 52.8 64.0 Peanuts : 1,230.0 1,533.0 1,195.0 1,494.0 Rapeseed : 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.4 Safflower : 180.0 191.0 172.0 183.0 Soybeans for Beans : 64,736.0 75,878.0 64,141.0 74,374.0 Sunflower : 2,068.0 2,507.0 2,009.5 2,385.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 10,827.2 9,414.0 10,489.1 7,755.0 Upland : 10,535.0 9,239.0 10,201.0 7,585.0 Amer-Pima : 292.2 175.0 288.1 170.0 Sugarbeets : 1,268.8 1,110.1 1,246.8 1,053.1 Sugarcane : 879.6 868.5 Tobacco : 356.0 356.0 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 29.0 26.5 11.0 8.8 Dry Edible Beans : 1,526.9 1,492.9 1,478.7 1,424.6 Dry Edible Peas : 847.5 847.0 811.3 807.8 Lentils : 303.0 279.0 295.0 272.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.4 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 0.1 Hops : 30.9 39.3 Peppermint Oil : 73.3 Potatoes, All : 1,148.8 1,057.8 1,129.7 1,041.1 Winter : 11.5 11.0 11.5 11.0 Spring : 72.8 69.2 70.2 67.7 Summer : 53.7 48.5 51.2 46.2 Fall : 1,010.8 929.1 996.8 916.2 Spearmint Oil : 19.6 Sweet Potatoes : 100.6 104.1 97.5 100.8 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 60.4 63.6 211,825 239,498 Corn for Grain :" : 151.1 153.9 13,073,893 12,033,368 Corn for Silage :Tons : 17.5 106,328 Hay, All :" : 2.44 2.49 150,304 150,500 Alfalfa :" : 3.35 3.44 72,575 71,424 All Other :" : 1.95 1.99 77,729 79,076 Oats :Bu : 60.9 63.5 91,599 88,635 Proso Millet :" : 32.3 16,615 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 7,185 6,982 197,456 204,141 Rye :Bu : 27.4 29.7 7,914 7,979 Sorghum for Grain :" : 74.2 63.9 504,993 471,921 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 15.6 6,206 Wheat, All :Bu : 40.5 44.9 2,066,722 2,499,524 Winter :" : 42.2 47.2 1,515,989 1,867,903 Durum :" : 33.9 32.8 71,686 84,877 Other Spring :" : 37.0 40.5 479,047 546,744 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,250 1,514 1,453,830 1,492,846 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 6,588.7 4,666.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 16.9 5,904 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 603 31,826 Peanuts :" : 3,076 3,298 3,675,250 4,927,650 Rapeseed :" : 1,300 1,300 Safflower :" : 1,215 208,995 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 41.7 39.5 2,675,822 2,938,313 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,436 1,448 2,886,065 3,454,640 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 879 849 19,206.9 13,711.0 Upland 2/ :" : 864 839 18,355.1 13,260.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,419 1,273 851.8 451.0 Sugarbeets :Tons : 25.6 26.5 31,912 27,958 Sugarcane :" : 34.1 34.4 29,969 29,855 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,191 2,261 779,899 804,927 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,155 127 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,716 1,774 25,371 25,268 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,960 15,903 Lentils 2/ :" : 1,155 3,408 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 541 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,170 7,500 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 35,000 30,000 2,800 1,800 Hops :" : 1,949 1,942 60,253.1 76,234.4 Peppermint Oil :" : 93 6,794 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 396 446,807 Winter :" : 215 230 2,473 2,530 Spring :" : 282 289 19,820 19,573 Summer :" : 332 324 16,997 14,946 Fall :" : 409 407,517 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 121 2,379 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 185 18,082 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2007-2009 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :----------------------------------------- : : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit :Tons : 1,627 1,569 1,379 Lemons :" : 798 703 817 Oranges :" : 7,625 10,167 9,194 Tangelos (FL) :" : 56 68 68 Tangerines and Mandarins :" : 361 490 480 : : Noncitrus : : Apples :1,000 Lbs: 9,113.9 9,242.2 Apricots :Tons : 88.5 86.8 Bananas (HI) :Lbs : 19,700.0 Grapes :Tons : 7,018.0 7,206.1 Olives (CA) :" : 132.5 65.0 Papayas (HI) :Lbs : 33,400.0 Peaches :Tons : 1,128.7 1,093.9 Pears :" : 873.0 821.8 Prunes, Dried (CA) :" : 83.0 120.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) :" : 12.1 18.8 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled) :Lbs : 1,390,000 1,500,000 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) :Tons : 37.0 34.0 Pecans (in-shell) :Lbs : 385,305 204,060 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) :Tons : 325.0 375.0 Maple Syrup :Gals : 1,258 1,635 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2008-09 season. 2/ Production years are 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2008-09. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,626,850 1,713,460 1,419,650 1,524,470 Corn for Grain 2/ :37,878,980 34,758,420 35,022,680 31,637,450 Corn for Silage : 2,456,870 Hay, All 3/ : 24,939,020 24,459,060 Alfalfa : 8,769,630 8,408,650 All Other : 16,169,390 16,050,410 Oats : 1,521,630 1,301,890 609,060 564,540 Proso Millet : 230,670 244,840 208,420 Rice : 1,117,350 1,189,790 1,112,090 1,183,310 Rye : 556,850 509,910 116,960 108,860 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,123,400 3,369,850 2,753,920 2,988,640 Sorghum for Silage : 161,470 Wheat, All 3/ :24,456,630 25,514,490 20,643,640 22,535,160 Winter :18,205,790 18,688,990 14,549,410 16,031,390 Durum : 869,680 1,105,210 854,710 1,045,720 Other Spring : 5,381,160 5,720,290 5,239,520 5,458,050 : Oilseeds : Canola : 478,750 410,760 470,650 399,020 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 143,260 137,590 141,240 134,760 Mustard Seed : 22,660 27,110 21,370 25,900 Peanuts : 497,770 620,390 483,600 604,610 Rapeseed : 610 200 400 160 Safflower : 72,840 77,300 69,610 74,060 Soybeans for Beans :26,198,010 30,707,070 25,957,220 30,098,410 Sunflower : 836,900 1,014,560 813,220 965,190 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 4,381,660 3,809,750 4,244,830 3,138,370 Upland : 4,263,410 3,738,930 4,128,240 3,069,570 Amer-Pima : 118,250 70,820 116,590 68,800 Sugarbeets : 513,470 449,250 504,570 426,180 Sugarcane : 355,970 351,470 Tobacco : 144,070 144,090 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 11,740 10,720 4,450 3,560 Dry Edible Beans : 617,920 604,160 598,420 576,520 Dry Edible Peas : 342,970 342,770 328,320 326,910 Lentils : 122,620 112,910 119,380 110,080 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,590 Ginger Root (HI) : 30 20 Hops : 12,510 15,890 Peppermint Oil : 29,660 Potatoes, All 3/ : 464,910 428,080 457,180 421,320 Winter : 4,650 4,450 4,650 4,450 Spring : 29,460 28,000 28,410 27,400 Summer : 21,730 19,630 20,720 18,700 Fall : 409,060 376,000 403,390 370,780 Spearmint Oil : 7,930 Sweet Potatoes : 40,710 42,130 39,460 40,790 Taro (HI) 5/ : 150 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.25 3.42 4,611,940 5,214,450 Corn for Grain : 9.48 9.66 332,092,180 305,661,630 Corn for Silage : 39.26 96,459,140 Hay, All 2/ : 5.47 5.58 136,353,500 136,531,300 Alfalfa : 7.51 7.71 65,838,930 64,794,760 All Other : 4.36 4.47 70,514,560 71,736,540 Oats : 2.18 2.28 1,329,560 1,286,530 Proso Millet : 1.81 376,820 Rice : 8.05 7.83 8,956,450 9,259,680 Rye : 1.72 1.86 201,020 202,680 Sorghum for Grain : 4.66 4.01 12,827,410 11,987,350 Sorghum for Silage : 34.87 5,629,990 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.72 3.02 56,246,960 68,025,900 Winter : 2.84 3.17 41,258,460 50,835,990 Durum : 2.28 2.21 1,950,970 2,309,970 Other Spring : 2.49 2.73 13,037,520 14,879,930 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.40 1.70 659,450 677,140 Cottonseed 3/ : 5,977,170 4,232,920 Flaxseed : 1.06 149,970 Mustard Seed : 0.68 14,440 Peanuts : 3.45 3.70 1,667,070 2,235,140 Rapeseed : 1.46 590 Safflower : 1.36 94,800 Soybeans for Beans : 2.81 2.66 72,823,940 79,967,770 Sunflower : 1.61 1.62 1,309,100 1,567,000 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.99 0.95 4,181,810 2,985,220 Upland : 0.97 0.94 3,996,350 2,887,020 Amer-Pima : 1.59 1.43 185,460 98,190 Sugarbeets : 57.38 59.51 28,950,080 25,363,070 Sugarcane : 76.38 77.06 27,187,420 27,084,000 Tobacco : 2.46 2.53 353,760 365,110 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.29 5,760 Dry Edible Beans : 1.92 1.99 1,150,810 1,146,140 Dry Edible Peas : 2.20 721,350 Lentils : 1.29 154,580 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 24,540 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.31 3,400 Ginger Root (HI) : 39.23 33.63 1,270 820 Hops : 2.18 2.18 27,330 34,580 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 3,080 Potatoes, All 2/ : 44.33 20,266,830 Winter : 24.10 25.78 112,170 114,760 Spring : 31.65 32.40 899,020 887,820 Summer : 37.21 36.26 770,970 677,940 Fall : 45.82 18,484,660 Spearmint Oil : 0.14 1,080 Sweet Potatoes : 20.79 820,190 Taro (HI) 3/ : 1,810 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2007-2009 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :-------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,475,990 1,423,370 1,251,010 Lemons : 723,930 637,750 741,170 Oranges : 6,917,280 9,223,350 8,340,660 Tangelos (FL) : 50,800 61,690 61,690 Tangerines : 327,490 444,520 435,450 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,134,000 4,192,190 Apricots : 80,250 78,780 Bananas (HI) : 8,940 Grapes : 6,366,620 6,537,260 Olives (CA) : 120,200 58,970 Papayas (HI) : 15,150 Peaches : 1,023,980 992,320 Pears : 791,930 745,480 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 75,300 108,860 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 10,980 17,060 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 630,490 680,390 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) : 33,570 30,840 Pecans (in-shell) : 174,770 92,560 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) : 294,840 340,190 Maple Syrup : 6,290 8,170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2008 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2008-09 season. 2/ Production years are 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2008-09. Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 10 corn producing States during 2008. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual field counts from this survey. Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre, Selected States, 2004-2008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Sep : 27,350 26,950 27,600 27,750 28,600 : Oct : 27,400 26,850 27,450 27,750 28,500 : Nov : 27,400 26,850 27,400 27,750 : Final : 27,400 26,850 27,400 27,750 : : IN : Sep : 26,200 24,850 25,850 26,950 27,950 : Oct : 25,950 24,600 25,750 26,800 27,700 : Nov : 26,050 24,650 25,700 26,800 : Final : 26,050 24,650 25,750 26,800 : : IA : Sep : 27,350 27,150 27,350 28,500 28,600 : Oct : 27,550 27,100 27,350 28,400 28,600 : Nov : 27,500 27,100 27,350 28,450 : Final : 27,500 27,100 27,350 28,400 : : KS : Sep : 22,100 21,100 20,850 20,900 19,850 : Oct : 22,150 21,000 20,750 20,800 20,600 : Nov : 22,150 20,900 20,750 20,800 : Final : 22,150 20,900 20,750 20,800 : : MN : Sep : 29,000 28,000 28,050 28,850 29,900 : Oct : 29,250 27,900 28,250 28,600 29,350 : Nov : 29,150 28,050 28,250 28,600 : Final : 29,200 28,050 28,250 28,600 : : MO : Sep : 24,400 22,550 23,850 23,950 25,050 : Oct : 24,250 22,600 23,800 23,950 25,000 : Nov : 24,250 22,600 23,800 23,950 : Final : 24,250 22,600 23,800 23,950 : : NE : Sep : 23,650 23,250 23,850 24,850 24,050 All : Oct : 24,000 22,800 23,700 24,750 23,950 : Nov : 24,050 22,800 23,700 24,750 : Final : 24,050 22,800 23,550 24,750 : : NE : Sep : 26,550 26,250 26,750 27,200 26,800 Irrigated : Oct : 26,700 25,900 26,600 27,000 27,000 : Nov : 26,650 25,900 26,600 27,000 : Final : 26,650 25,900 26,650 27,000 : : NE : Sep : 19,100 19,550 19,400 21,100 19,550 Non-Irrigated: Oct : 19,800 18,950 19,150 21,050 19,500 : Nov : 20,000 18,900 19,200 21,100 : Final : 20,000 18,900 18,800 21,100 : : OH : Sep : 25,950 24,800 25,200 26,350 26,950 : Oct : 26,000 24,700 25,350 26,000 27,400 : Nov : 26,000 24,650 25,450 25,950 : Final : 26,050 24,650 25,450 25,950 : : SD : Sep : 21,950 23,150 22,050 23,250 24,150 : Oct : 22,700 23,100 21,900 22,700 23,900 : Nov : 22,700 23,050 21,700 22,700 : Final : 22,700 23,050 21,700 22,700 : : WI : Sep : 25,600 26,550 26,750 27,800 27,750 : Oct : 27,150 26,350 26,850 27,700 28,300 : Nov : 26,800 26,350 27,200 27,850 : Final : 26,800 26,350 27,200 27,850 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybeans: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 11 soybean producing States during 2008. Randomly selected plots in soybean fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Changes have been made to the September counts in order to be more consistent with other months. Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet, Selected States, 2004-2008 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR 1/ : Sep : : Oct : 2,446 1,796 1,645 1,621 1,569 : Nov : 2,483 1,823 1,655 1,665 : Final : 2,511 1,824 1,667 1,690 : : IL : Sep : 1,911 1,824 1,860 1,800 1,621 : Oct : 1,923 1,820 1,890 1,796 1,893 : Nov : 1,943 1,858 1,923 1,818 : Final : 1,947 1,858 1,923 1,831 : : IN : Sep : 1,821 1,747 1,764 1,667 1,608 : Oct : 1,866 1,790 1,893 1,660 1,577 : Nov : 1,917 1,899 1,909 1,628 : Final : 1,917 1,899 1,909 1,641 : : IA : Sep : 1,644 1,796 1,688 1,787 1,758 : Oct : 1,731 1,935 1,758 1,917 1,732 : Nov : 1,737 1,968 1,760 1,933 : Final : 1,741 1,970 1,760 1,932 : : KS : Sep : 1,304 1,383 1,466 1,605 1,346 : Oct : 1,588 1,431 1,509 1,524 1,487 : Nov : 1,639 1,547 1,581 1,608 : Final : 1,636 1,546 1,581 1,609 : : MN : Sep : 1,461 1,597 1,500 1,558 1,466 : Oct : 1,406 1,598 1,586 1,589 1,493 : Nov : 1,446 1,640 1,568 1,588 : Final : 1,435 1,640 1,568 1,588 : : MO : Sep : 1,857 1,580 1,673 1,566 1,538 : Oct : 1,943 1,585 1,746 1,579 1,473 : Nov : 1,998 1,679 1,738 1,685 : Final : 2,038 1,652 1,735 1,697 : : NE : Sep : 1,727 1,778 1,699 1,876 1,692 : Oct : 1,836 1,903 1,801 2,042 1,766 : Nov : 1,895 1,920 1,784 2,088 : Final : 1,895 1,920 1,766 2,084 : : ND : Sep : 1,088 1,386 1,127 1,323 1,261 : Oct : 1,148 1,471 1,241 1,445 1,261 : Nov : 1,243 1,496 1,260 1,500 : Final : 1,242 1,496 1,260 1,497 : : OH : Sep : 1,793 1,990 1,868 1,892 1,942 : Oct : 1,873 1,890 1,895 1,850 1,755 : Nov : 1,840 1,974 1,835 1,909 : Final : 1,837 1,981 1,866 1,909 : : SD : Sep : 1,186 1,572 1,255 1,476 1,425 : Oct : 1,332 1,617 1,345 1,492 1,465 : Nov : 1,302 1,605 1,316 1,510 : Final : 1,308 1,556 1,312 1,510 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ September data not available due to plant immaturity. Cotton: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 6 cotton producing States during 2008. Randomly selected plots in cotton fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, Selected States, 2004-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2004 : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep : 864 811 859 790 943 : Oct : 771 728 814 839 810 : Nov : 753 733 849 849 : Dec : 754 733 824 849 : Final : 754 733 824 849 : : : : GA : Sep : 646 667 648 616 587 : Oct : 690 689 675 570 613 : Nov : 686 767 774 707 : Dec : 687 767 790 708 : Final : 687 767 790 708 : : LA : Sep : 635 746 760 796 655 : Oct : 707 768 781 808 578 : Nov : 691 775 786 841 : Dec : 691 775 785 841 : Final : 691 775 785 841 : : MS : Sep : 808 818 700 819 909 : Oct : 789 729 699 745 679 : Nov : 780 724 695 747 : Dec : 780 722 695 747 : Final : 780 722 695 747 : : NC : Sep : 758 799 637 527 667 : Oct : 719 693 641 601 652 : Nov : 732 721 671 625 : Dec : 733 721 671 625 : Final : 733 721 671 625 : : TX : Sep : 639 620 530 602 633 : Oct : 672 516 477 538 513 : Nov : 593 586 533 631 : Dec : 624 585 544 632 : Final : 624 585 544 632 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls (at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs per 40 feet of row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls. September Weather Summary Category 2 Hurricanes Gustav and Ike struck the Gulf Coast less than 2 weeks apart, causing extensive storm-surge flooding and resulting in rain and wind damage to a variety of crops. Both storms arrived with maximum sustained winds near 110 m.p.h., with Gustav striking south-central Louisiana near Houma on September 1 and Ike barreling into the upper Texas Coast on Galveston Island on September 13. Gustav and Ike were part of a string of six consecutive named Atlantic Basin storms to make landfall in the United States, breaking a satellite-era record of five consecutive storms most recently attained in 2004. The streak started with Hurricane Dolly in southern Texas on July 23 and ended with Ike. Some of the most dramatic changes in crop conditions due to the hurricanes were observed in Louisiana, where the percent of cotton rated very poor to poor rose from 21 to 69 percent (%) between August 31 and September 28. During the same 4-week period, Louisiana's soybeans rated very poor to poor jumped from 21 to 41%, while rice rated very poor to poor climbed from 6 to 28%. The remnants of both Gustav and Ike crossed the Midwest, contributing to record-setting wetness in the central Corn Belt during the first half of September. Just prior to Ike's arrival, areas from Missouri to southern Michigan also had to contend with a cold front laced with moisture associated with former eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Lowell. In addition, Ike's remnants helped to produce a swath of winds gusts as high as 60 to 80 m.p.h. from the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, causing power outages and downing trees and corn stalks. Meanwhile, late-maturing summer crops were subjected to very warm, unfavorably dry conditions in much of the Ohio and upper Mississippi Valleys. Farther west, winter wheat planting gained momentum on the Plains, following a slow start. Rain and cool weather stalled wheat planting around mid-month from west-central Texas into eastern Kansas, but conditions improved toward month's end in the wet areas. Meanwhile, pockets of unfavorable dryness persisted on the northern and central High Plains. Elsewhere, very warm, mostly dry weather promoted fieldwork in the West, while dry weather in much of the Southeast contrasted with wet conditions along the Atlantic Seaboard. Western and Southeastern drought concerns included a lack of moisture for pastures, rangeland, and winter grains, although fieldwork advanced in both regions with few delays. Rain along the East Coast was largely due to Tropical Storm Hanna, which made landfall along the North Carolina-South Carolina border on the night of September 5-6, and an unnamed storm system that arrived near Myrtle Beach, SC, on the night of September 25-26. September Agricultural Summary Corn reached the dough stage on 91 percent of the acreage by September 7, seven points behind last year and 5 points behind the 5-year average. Throughout the Corn Belt, development was up to 14 points behind normal. By September 14, ninety-six percent of the crop had reached the dough stage, only 2 points behind the average pace of development. In early September, denting reached only 62 percent of the acreage, 17 points behind the 5- year average. Major delays were evident in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Development progressed throughout the month and was 96 percent complete by September 28, two points behind the 5-year average. All States had reached denting within 6 points of normal. Eleven percent of the corn crop reached maturity by the first week of September, 17 points behind the 5-year average. As the month progressed, weekly development averaged 12 points. By September 28, fifty-two percent of the crop was mature, well behind the average of 79 percent. Developmental delays between 30 and 40 points were evident in the central Corn Belt. Harvest was slowly getting underway during the last 2 weeks of September. By September 28, nine percent of the crop was harvested, 12 points behind the average pace. Producers were harvesting well behind the average in Illinois, Kansas, and Missouri. Corn condition remained stable throughout the month and was rated 61 percent good to excellent on September 28. Sorghum heading was 96 percent complete by September 14, one point behind the 5-year average. Heading was complete or nearly complete in all States except New Mexico and Oklahoma. Development to the coloring stage reached 64 percent early in the month, 4 points behind normal. Progressing 21 points over the next 3 weeks, coloring was 85 percent complete on September 28, five points behind the 5-year average. Coloring progress was at or behind normal in all States except Colorado and New Mexico throughout the month. In early September, 34 percent of the sorghum was mature, 3 points behind average. Developing slowly throughout the month, half of the crop was mature by September 28, thirteen points behind the 5-year average. Producers had harvested 28 percent of the crop by September 7, one point behind the average pace for that date. Only 7 percent of the crop was harvested from September 7 through the end of the month. As of September 28, thirty-five percent of the acreage was harvested, 5 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest was underway in all States except Illinois and New Mexico by month's end. Producers began seeding winter wheat early in the month and by September 14, eleven percent of the crop was planted, 5 points behind the 5-year average. By September 28, forty-two percent of the crop was planted, 3 points behind the 5-year average. Planting was active in all States by this time, and was behind in nearly all States. Fourteen percent of the crop was emerged by September 28, four points behind the average pace. Development was behind normal in all major producing States. Rice heading was 98 percent complete early in the month, 4 points ahead of the 5-year average. A quarter of the rice crop was harvested by September 14, sixteen points behind the 5-year average. Harvest was delayed in all States. Producers harvested 13 percent of the crop during the third week of September and 14 percent during the last week of the month. On September 28, fifty-two percent of the acreage had been harvested, 18 points behind the average pace. Major delays existed in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Missouri. Rice condition fluctuated between 61 and 62 percent good to excellent throughout the month. As of September 7, a tenth of the soybean crop had reached the leaf-dropping stage, 11 points behind the 5-year average. Development in all States was at or behind the average, except Michigan, where development was 3 points ahead of the 5-year average. Plants continued dropping leaves throughout the month while continuing to trail the usual pace. By September 28, sixty-eight percent of the crop was dropping leaves, 13 points behind the 5-year average. In Missouri, development was 36 points behind normal, the most significant lag. Harvest activity was evident on 9 percent of the acreage by September 28, twelve points behind the average. The most significant harvest delay was in Mississippi, where producers were harvesting their crop 37 points behind the 5-year average pace. Throughout the month of September, soybean condition was rated 57 percent good to excellent. Peanut harvest was underway by September 21, with 7 percent harvested. Producers were harvesting the crop 3 points ahead of last year's pace, but 1 point behind the 5-year average. Harvest had begun in all States except Oklahoma and Virginia. Producers had harvested 14 percent of the crop by September 28, remaining 1 point behind the 5-year average. Condition of the peanut crop was rated 68 percent good to excellent early in the month and by late September had declined 2 points to 66 percent good to excellent. Early in the month, bolls were open on 29 percent of the cotton acreage, 10 points behind the 5-year average. Development was most active in the Southeast. Bolls opened on eleven percent of the acreage each week until the week ending September 28. By this time, 63 percent of the crop had open bolls lagging the average by 9 points. While development was 13 points ahead in Kansas, and 18 points behind in Texas, elsewhere, bolls were opening within 8 points of the 5-year average. Sugarbeet harvest began mid-month, with progress reaching 5 percent by September 21, one point behind the 5-year average. Harvest was behind in all States except Michigan. By month's end, 7 percent of the acreage had been harvested, 3 points behind the 5-year average. Crop Comments Corn: Acreage updates were made in several States based on administrative data, bringing total corn planted area to 85.9 million acres, down 1 percent from the August forecast. Area harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 78.2 million acres, down 1 percent from the September forecast. If realized, area harvested for grain will be the second largest on record since 1946, behind the 86.5 million acres harvested last year. The October 1 corn objective yield indicated number of ears per acre is the highest on record for the combined 10 objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin). Record high ear counts are forecast in all objective yield States except Kansas and Nebraska. As of September 28, sixty-one percent of the corn acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, unchanged from last month but 2 points lower than a year ago. Regionally, corn condition ratings were lower than last month across the Ohio Valley and eastern Corn Belt as dry conditions continued to adversely affect the late developing corn crop. Conditions also declined in the middle Mississippi Valley where excessive moisture and high winds from Hurricanes Gustav and Ike stressed the crop. Crop conditions improved slightly or remained unchanged in the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley as late September rains brought much needed moisture to the region. Corn development progress continued to lag behind normal due to the slow early season planting pace and cooler than normal temperatures during much of the growing season. On September 21, one-third of the corn acreage was rated mature and beyond compared with 76 percent last year and 63 percent for the 5-year average. States in the upper and middle Mississippi Valley were over 35 points behind their normal pace while States in the central and northern Great Plains were between 24 and 33 points behind. Harvesting of corn gradually began progressing northward from the southern Great Plains, and was just getting underway in the Corn Belt and the northern half of the Great Plains by month's end. Overall, the corn harvest was 9 percent complete on September 28, down 20 points from last year's pace and 12 points behind the average. Progress was behind schedule in all States except Colorado, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Missouri, at 17 percent harvested, trailed their average pace by 43 points while Kansas and Illinois lagged their average pace by 28 points. Sorghum: Production is forecast at 472 million bushels, up 11 percent from September 1 but down 7 percent from last year. Based on administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States. Planted area was updated to 8.33 million acres, up 14 percent from the previous forecast and up 8 percent from 2007. Area for harvest as grain is forecast at 7.39 million acres, up 15 percent from last month and up 9 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yield is forecast at 63.9 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from September and down 10.3 bushels from last year. As of September 28, harvest had begun in all of the top 11 producing States except Illinois and New Mexico. The sorghum crop was 50 percent mature, 23 points behind last year and 13 points behind the normal pace. Harvest, at 35 percent complete, was 11 points behind last year and 5 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest was 95 percent complete in Louisiana and 74 percent complete in Arkansas. Colorado and Texas were the only States where harvest was ahead of average at 11 percent and 69 percent, respectively. Yields decreased from the September forecast in Arkansas and New Mexico, while Oklahoma showed a 1 bushel increase. In Kansas and Texas, the top 2 producing States, yield forecasts are unchanged from September. As of September 28, crop condition was rated 53 percent good to excellent, compared with 64 percent last year. Rice: Production is forecast at 204 million cwt, down 1 percent from the September forecast but up 3 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 2.92 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 6 percent from 2007. As of October 1, the U.S. yield is forecast at 6,982 pounds per acre, down 94 pounds from the September 1 forecast and 203 pounds below the 2007 record yield of 7,185 pounds per acre. Expected yields decreased from the previous month in both Arkansas and Mississippi but increased in California and Texas. Yields were unchanged in Missouri and Louisiana. As of September 28, fifty-two percent of the U.S. acreage was harvested, 19 percentage points behind the same time last year and 18 percentage points behind the five-year average. Arkansas, Mississippi, and Missouri were all running over 25 percentage points behind their five-year average pace. Late spring planting pushed crop maturity back in these three States. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike brought heavy rains, and wind to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Texas during the first half of September. Gustav made landfall on September 1 in Louisiana and Ike made landfall on Galveston Island, Texas on September 13. Most growers in the southern part of Louisiana and costal areas of Texas were able to harvest their crop prior to the storm. However, damage was reported from northern Louisiana up through both Mississippi and Arkansas. Many growers in Louisiana and Texas will be unable to get a second crop this year due to flooding. Soybeans: Updates to planted acreage were made in several States based on administrative data. Planted area was updated to a record high 75.9 million acres, an increase of 1 percent from the August estimate and up 17 percent from 2007. Area for harvest is forecast at 74.4 million acres, up 1 percent from September 1 and up 16 percent from 2007. Harvested area, if realized, will be the second largest on record. The October objective yield data for the combined seven major soybean producing States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and Ohio) indicate a lower pod count compared with last year, as late planting this spring led to slower than normal development. Compared with final counts for 2007, pod counts are down in all of the seven major States except for Illinois. The largest decrease is in Nebraska, down 318 pods per 18 square feet from 2007's record high pod count. As of September 28, sixty-eight percent of the acreage was dropping leaves or beyond, 16 points behind last year's pace and 13 points behind the 5-year average. Progress was behind normal in all major soybean-producing States except Louisiana, Michigan, and North Dakota. The percent of acreage dropping leaves was more than 20 points behind the 5-year average in Arkansas, Illinois, Mississippi, and Missouri. As of September 28, fifty- seven percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated in good to excellent condition, unchanged from the same week in 2007 and unchanged from the previous week. With the exception of Illinois, Kansas, and Nebraska, crop conditions declined or remained unchanged during September across the Corn Belt and Great Plains. The biggest decline in percent rated good to excellent occurred in Louisiana, down 20 points from last month due to the excessive wind and rain from Hurricane Gustav at the beginning of September. Meanwhile, the only States that showed increases in condition ratings during the month were Arkansas, Kansas, Illinois, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Tennessee. As of September 28, soybean harvest was progressing behind normal with 9 percent harvested, compared with the 5-year average of 21 percent. Harvest progress was behind normal in all major soybean-producing States except Ohio, which was 1 point ahead of normal. If realized, the yield forecast in Arkansas will match the record high set in 2004. Sunflower: The first production forecast for 2008 is 3.45 billion pounds, up 20 percent from 2007 and up 61 percent from 2006. Area planted, at 2.51 million acres, is up 16 percent from the June estimate and up 21 percent from last year. Sunflower growers expect to harvest 2.39 million acres, up 16 percent from June and up 19 percent from the 2007 acreage. The October yield forecast, at 1,448 pounds per acre, is 12 pounds higher than last year. As of October 1, higher yields are expected in four of the seven major sunflower-producing States, with only Colorado, Kansas, and Texas farmers expecting lower yields compared with last year. In North Dakota, the largest sunflower-producing State, the yield is forecast at 1,445 pounds per acre, up 31 pounds from the 2007 yield. As of September 28, sixty percent of the sunflower crop in North Dakota was rated good to excellent, compared with 80 percent at the same time last year. Rainfall and below normal temperatures during June across the northern Great Plains slowed progress early and development of the sunflower crop has generally lagged behind normal throughout the season. As of the end of September, harvest had not started in the Dakotas, behind last year and normal. Peanuts: Production is forecast at 4.93 billion pounds, up 3 percent from last month and up 34 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.49 million acres, unchanged from September but up 25 percent from 2007. Yields are expected to average 3,298 pounds per acre, up 110 pounds from last month and up 222 pounds from 2007. If realized, this will be a record high yield for the U.S. Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina) is expected to total 3.58 billion pounds, up 4 percent from September and up 39 percent from last year. Expected area for harvest, at 1.10 million acres, is unchanged from September but up 26 percent from 2007. Yields in the region are expected to average 3,260 pounds per acre, up 124 pounds from last month and 298 pounds above last year. Yields are forecast higher than last year in all Southeast States, and record yields are forecast in Alabama, Florida, Mississippi and South Carolina. As of September 28, harvest in most of the Southeast States was on pace with the five-year average. Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 378 million pounds, up 8 percent from the September 1 forecast and up 21 percent from 2007. Expected area for harvest, at 121,000 acres, is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 9 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3,124 pounds per acre, up 224 pounds from the September forecast and up 300 pounds from 2007. Harvest was underway in both States as of September 28. Southwest peanut production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 973 million pounds, up slightly from last month and up 24 percent from 2007. Expected acreage for harvest, at 276,000, is unchanged from last month but up 29 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 3,526 pounds per acre for the region, up 6 pounds from the September forecast but down 141 pounds from the previous year. Canola: The first production forecast for 2008 is 1.49 billion pounds, up 3 percent from 2007. Area planted, at 1.02 million acres, is up less than 1 percent from the June estimate but down 14 percent from last year. Canola farmers expect to harvest 986 thousand acres, up less than 1 percent from June but down 15 percent from 2007. The October yield forecast, at 1,514 pounds per acre, is 264 pounds above last year's yield. The yield in North Dakota, the largest canola-producing State, is forecast at 1,520 pounds per acre, up 280 pounds from last year. Crop development in North Dakota progressed behind last year and the 5-year average pace due to mostly below normal temperatures during the growing season. Harvest progress lagged behind the normal pace during August and most of September but was essentially complete by the end of September. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested area, at 7.59 million acres, is down 1 percent from last month and down 26 percent from last year. American-Pima harvested acres are unchanged from last month but down 41 percent from last year. In the Southeastern States, Tropical Storm Hannah made landfall during the first week of September bringing much needed precipitation to the Carolinas and Virginia. By mid-September, dry conditions and cooler temperature allowed producers to begin defoliation of the crop. By the end of the month, harvest had begun throughout the region, behind last year and normal. The crop was rated in mostly fair to good condition. Objective yield measurements in Georgia and North Carolina show the boll counts to be slightly below the 5-year average. Hurricane Gustav made landfall in Louisiana on September 1 bringing excessive amounts of rain to the South Delta region. Following the hurricane, cool, damp weather moved into the region. By the second week of September, Hurricane Ike made landfall in South Texas and brought rain to the North Delta region. By the middle of the month, warmer temperatures moved into the region allowing producers to resume defoliation of the crop. Harvest was underway by the end of the month, behind both last year and the 5-year average. Due to the effects of Hurricane Gustav, Louisiana producers abandoned an additional 25,000 acres since last month's forecast. The crop was rated in mostly good to excellent condition in Missouri and Tennessee. In Louisiana, the crop was rated in mostly poor to very poor condition and objective yield counts showed the lowest bolls per acre and the lowest boll weights in the last 5 years. In Mississippi, bolls per acre are the lowest in the last five years and boll weights are the second lightest. In South Texas, harvest neared completion by the first of September. Hurricane Ike made landfall during the second week of September bringing high winds and rain throughout Texas. In the Panhandle of Texas, crop development was delayed due to cooler than normal temperatures. Texas producers abandoned an additional 50,000 acres since last month's forecast. The crop was rated in mostly fair to good condition. Objective yield measurements in Texas showed the boll weights and bolls per acre to be second heaviest and second largest, respectively, in the last 5 years. In Oklahoma and Kansas, the crop was rated in mostly fair to good condition. Producers are concerned with the lack of heat units needed to advance the crop. In Arizona, harvest of the crop was underway by the first of the month, slightly ahead of normal. By the end of the month, cooler temperatures in California allowed for defoliation to begin. California and Arizona upland cotton is rated in mostly good to excellent condition. American-Pima production is forecast at 451,000 bales, down 2 percent from September and down 47 percent from last year. The U.S. yield forecast is 1,273 pounds per acre, down 23 pounds from last month and down 146 pounds from last year. The crop was progressing normally throughout Arizona and California and harvest was beginning by late September. Ginnings totaled 817,200 running bales prior to October 1, compared with 1,566,300 running bales ginned prior to the same date last year and 2,572,150 running bales in 2006. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Production of dry hay is forecast at 71.4 million tons, up 1 percent from the August forecast but down 2 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 3.44 tons per acre, up 0.03 ton from August and up 0.09 ton from 2007. Harvested area is forecast at 20.8 million acres, unchanged from August but down 4 percent from the previous year's acreage. Yields increased from the August forecast in Kansas, Oklahoma and the Dakotas due to late rains which helped the final cuttings in these areas. Yields were unchanged or lower in the Corn Belt States. Yield forecasts were also down in Washington and Oregon. Other Hay: Production is forecast at 79.1 million tons, up 3 percent from the August forecast and up 2 percent from 2007. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 1.99 tons per acre, up 0.05 ton from the August forecast and up 0.04 ton from last year. Harvested area, at 39.7 million acres, is unchanged from August but down 1 percent from the previous year. Compared with the previous forecast, growers in the southern Great Plains, Gulf Coast, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, North Carolina, New York, and Washington are expecting higher yields. Yields are forecast to remain unchanged or decline from August in most of the Corn Belt, the Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. Kentucky and Michigan showed the largest decrease in yield from the previous forecast, down 0.3 tons. Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is forecast at 25.3 million cwt for 2008, up 5 percent from the August forecast but down slightly from 2007. Planted area is forecast at 1.49 million acres, up 6 percent from the August forecast but down 2 percent from 2007. Harvested area is forecast at 1.42 million acres, 5 percent above the August forecast but 4 percent below the previous year's harvested acreage. The average U.S. yield is forecast at 1,774 pounds per acre, a decrease of 12 pounds from August's forecast but 58 pounds above the 2007 yield. If realized, this will be the highest yield on record for the U.S. Production is expected to be lower from 2007 in 10 of the 18 producing States, primarily due to reduced acreage. If realized, Nebraska and New York will have their highest dry bean yields on record, at 2,350 and 1,900 pounds per acre, respectively. In North Dakota, as of September 28, the dry bean crop was rated 59 percent good to excellent. This was lower than the rating for the August 1 forecast and the previous year. The crop was only 34 percent harvested as of September 28, which was behind both last year and the 5-year average. Michigan harvest progress at the end of September was behind normal due to continued rains. The harvest was only 31 percent complete at the end of September compared to 71 percent from the same time last year and a 5-year average of 67 percent. However, in Minnesota, the crop was 69 percent harvested as of September 28 and 64 percent of the dry beans were rated good to excellent and 33 percent rated fair. Winter Potatoes: California's winter potato production for 2008 is revised to 2.53 million cwt, down 4 percent from the April estimate but 2 percent above 2007. Planted and harvested area in California remains unchanged from April, each at 11,000 acres, down 4 percent from 2007. Average yield is 230 cwt per acre, 10 cwt below the April estimate but 15 cwt above last year. Growers reported that crop quality was good with few reports of disease or pests. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 2008 is forecast at 805 million pounds, 1 percent below the September forecast but up 3 percent from 2007. Area harvested is forecast at 356,040 acres, virtually unchanged from last month and a year ago. Yields for 2008 are expected to average 2,261 pounds per acre, down 28 pounds from the previous forecast but 70 pounds greater than 2007. Flue-cured tobacco production is expected to total 509 million pounds, 2 percent below the previous forecast but 1 percent above last year. Growers plan to harvest 226,500 acres in 2008, unchanged from the September 1 forecast but up 2 percent from a year ago. Yields are forecast to average 2,245 pounds per acre, 50 pounds below the last forecast and down 14 pounds from 2007. Yields in North Carolina, the leading flue-cured tobacco state, are expected to average 2,250 pounds per acre, down 50 pounds from the September forecast. Yields in Georgia and South Carolina decreased from last month 100 pounds and 150 pounds, respectively. Rain throughout September in the Carolinas delayed harvest and caused leaf quality to decrease. Wet conditions also increased instances of disease. Burley production is expected to total 198 million pounds, virtually unchanged from the September forecast but 5 percent below last year. Growers plan to harvest 95,950 acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 10 percent from 2007. If realized, this will be the lowest acreage on record. The previous low of 100,150 acres was in 2005, the first year after the tobacco buyout eliminated quotas. Yields are expected to average 2,059 pounds per acre, 9 pounds above last month and 108 pounds above a year ago. Average yields in Pennsylvania and Tennessee increased 50 pounds each from a month ago while burley yields in other States remained the same. Fire-cured tobacco production is expected to total 61.5 million pounds, unchanged from last month's forecast but 48 percent above 2007. Growers plan to harvest 18,400 acres, unchanged from the September 1 forecast but up 26 percent from a year ago. The yield is expected to average 3,342 pounds per acre, the same as last month but up 487 pounds from last year. Southern Maryland Belt tobacco production in Pennsylvania is expected to total 3.78 million pounds, up 11 percent from the September forecast and 64 percent above 2007. A total of 1,800 acres is expected to be harvested, unchanged from last month but up 64 percent from a year ago. Average yields, at 2,100 pounds per acre, are expected to increase 200 pounds from the previous forecast but remain the same as last year. Dark air-cured tobacco is expected to total 24.6 million pounds, up 1 percent from last month and 82 percent above 2007. Growers plan to harvest 8,300 acres, unchanged from the September forecast but 67 percent above last year. Yields are expected to average 2,961 pounds per acre, up 19 pounds from the previous forecast and 255 percent above a year ago. Many growers in Kentucky and Tennessee have shifted their acreage from burley to the dark tobacco types in expectation of higher prices. All Cigar type production is expected to total 8.98 million pounds, down 1 percent from last month's forecast and 20 percent below last year. Growers of cigar type tobacco plan to harvest 5,090 acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 15 percent from 2007. Overall yield is expected to average 1,764 pounds per acre, down 17 pounds from September 1 and 109 pounds below a year ago. Sugarbeets: Production of sugarbeets in 2008 is forecast at 28.0 million tons, 7 percent above the September forecast but 12 percent below 2007's production of 31.9 million tons. Growers expect to harvest 1.05 million acres, 4,600 acres below the September forecast and the lowest acreage since 1982. The yield is forecast at 26.5 tons per acre, up 1.8 tons from September and up 0.9 ton from the previous year. If realized, this will be the highest yield on record. Yields were at or above last year's level in all States except in the Pacific Northwest. As of September 28, harvest was 7 percent complete in the four major producing States, 3 points behind normal. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2008 is forecast at 29.9 million tons, down slightly from the September forecast and from 2007. Sugarcane growers intend to harvest 868,500 acres for sugar and seed during the 2008 crop year, unchanged from September but up 11,100 acres from last year. Yield is forecast at 34.4 tons per acre, down 0.2 ton from the September forecast but up 0.3 ton from 2007. Harvested acreage in Florida is up 7,000 acres from last year, while yield is up 2.9 tons, resulting in a production forecast 10 percent above last year. Acres harvested for sugar and seed in Louisiana followed the opposite trend, down 15,000 from 2007. Yield is down 3.4 tons from last year and production is down 14 percent from 2007. Yields are forecast above last year in all States except Louisiana, where excessive rains and winds from Hurricane Gustav negatively affected the crop. Grapefruit: The initial forecast of the 2008-09 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.38 million tons, 12 percent lower than 2007-08 and down 15 percent from the 2006-07 final utilization. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes (978 million tons), 14 percent below last season and down 15 percent from 2006-07. The white grapefruit forecast is 7.00 million boxes (298,000 tons), down 22 percent from 2007-08 and 25 percent lower than the 2006-07 final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), is 9 percent lower than last season and down 11 percent from the 2006-07 utilization. If realized, this will be the lowest Florida grapefruit crop since the 1944-45 season, other than the hurricane-reduced 2004-05 and 2005-06 crops. Tree numbers of both white and colored varieties have been declining over the past decade. Excluding the recent hurricane- affected seasons, average fruit per tree of white grapefruit is close to the 40-year minimum of the 2002-03 season. Average fruit per tree of colored grapefruit is below seven of the last eight seasons. The October 1 Texas grapefruit forecast is 5.30 million boxes (212,000 tons), down 13 percent from last season and 25 percent lower than the 2006-07 crop. The California grapefruit forecast of 5.50 million boxes (184,000 tons) is 4 percent lower than the 2007-08 season and unchanged from 2006-07. Grapefruit for the 2008-09 season continued to develop normally in California as harvest of the previous crop wound down. Arizona's forecast, at 150,000 boxes (5,000 tons), is up 50 percent from each of the last two seasons. Lemons: The initial forecast for the 2008-09 U.S. lemon crop is 817,000 tons, up 16 percent from 2007-08 and 2 percent higher than the 2006-07 crop. California's production is forecast at 19.0 million boxes (722,000 tons), up 12 percent from last season and 3 percent higher than 2006-07. Harvest continued in the coastal areas and began in the desert region. The desert crop has recovered from the devastating freeze of 2007, and a larger crop is expected this season. The production forecast for Arizona is 2.50 million boxes (95,000 tons), up 67 percent from the previous crop year but unchanged from 2006-07. Harvest was put on hold for a few weeks due to inadequately sized fruit. Fruit size increased, and harvesting activities began by the end of September. Tangelos: The October 1 Florida tangelo forecast of 1.50 million boxes (68,000 tons) is equal to last season's final production but is up 20 percent from 2006-07. Bearing trees have been declining for over a decade and are down 8 percent from last season. Fruit per tree is down 4 percent from 2007-08, but fruit size is close to average. Tangerines and Mandarins: The initial 2008-09 U.S. tangerine and mandarin forecast is 480,000 tons, down 2 percent from the 2007-08 season but up 33 percent from the 2006-07 final utilization. California's tangerine and mandarin forecast is a record-high 6.30 million boxes (236,000 tons), up 11 percent from last season and 80 percent above the 2006-07 freeze-damaged crop. Bearing acreage continued to increase. An above average yield was expected due to additional crop recovery from the 2007 freeze. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.90 million boxes (233,000 tons), down 11 percent from 2007-08 but 7 percent higher than the 2006-07 crop. Fruit per tree is well above average for Fallglo and Sunburst varieties. However, the Honey tangerine crop has the lowest fruit per tree since the fruit count survey for the Honey variety began during the 1980-81 season. Arizona's forecast, at 300,000 boxes (11,000 tons), is 25 percent lower than last season and unchanged from 2006-07. Florida Citrus: Daily high temperatures during September were, on average, in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and all citrus areas received less than average rainfall. Some groves on the East Coast remained wet from the heavy rain that fell during the preceding few weeks. Many of those growers continued pumping water out of canals and ditches. Isolated groves were exhibiting the yellowing of leaves and additional small percentages of fruit drop. Growers and caretakers in other areas across the citrus belt quickly returned to irrigation and general maintenance programs. Other field work included mowing, fertilizing, applying herbicides, removing trees, and preparing for harvest. Field crews were actively scouting for greening and spraying for psyllid population control or pushing affected trees. Overall, well cared for trees looked good, with heavy foliage and healthy fruit. Over a dozen packinghouses opened during the month and began running fruit. Varieties going to the fresh market included Ambersweet and navel oranges, Fallglo tangerines, and grapefruit. Only one processing plant opened during the month. Texas Citrus: Many citrus groves suffered damage from Hurricane Dolly, which made landfall in southern Texas in July. Affected operations experienced an estimated 20 percent crop loss, but in September remaining fruit was reported to be of very good quality and size overall. Arizona Citrus: Lemon harvest was put on hold for a few weeks due to inadequately sized fruit. By the end of the month, fruit size had increased, allowing harvesting activities to begin. Overall, citrus groves and fruit quality were reported to be in good condition. California Citrus: Lemon harvest got underway during September in the desert regions, and continued in the coastal areas. Valencia orange harvest remained slow with the bulk of fruit picked for domestic markets. Navel orange fruit size continued to develop. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Table, wine, and raisin type grape harvest continued during September. In Fresno County, raisin grape harvest was 100 percent complete, with 30 percent on open trays, 27 percent rolled, and 43 percent boxed. Zante currants continued to be rolled. The harvest of early pomegranate varieties was on the rise; later varieties continued to size and mature. Varieties of peaches, plums, pluots, and nectarines continued to be picked and packed. Gala, Granny Smith, Golden Delicious, McIntosh, and Red Delicious apples were harvested, as well as Brown Turkey and Mission figs, Asian pears, and Jujubes. Fall strawberry harvest continued in Oxnard and began in parts of Tulare County during September. Some strawberry blocks were being replanted. Olive harvest began, and many growers reported a lighter than normal crop. Some groves with low yields were expected to be left unharvested. Pistachio picking began and quickly gained speed as the month progressed. Harvesting of almonds continued, and walnut harvest began. Yields looked low in some walnut groves, but the overall crop looked good. Some groves continued to be irrigated. Apples: The final 2008 U.S. apple production forecast is set at 9.24 billion pounds, up slightly from August and up 1 percent from 2007. Increases in production from August 2008 were shown in New York and Pennsylvania, while production decreased in Michigan and West Virginia. Production forecasts in North Carolina, Virginia, and Washington were unchanged from the August forecast. All other State forecasts were carried forward from August. Production in the Western States (AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, UT, and WA) is forecast at 5.99 billion pounds, unchanged from August and up 4 percent from 2007. Washington production, which makes up 58 percent of the U.S. total, is forecast at 5.40 billion pounds, unchanged from the previous forecast and up 4 percent from 2007. While severe spring frosts delayed crop development by two weeks, excellent growing season weather has increased hopes for a solid crop. The frosts may still affect the late-maturing varieties. Apple size is smaller than last year but last year's apples were reported as larger than normal. Fruit quality is good and labor supply has not negatively affected the harvest. Production in the Eastern States (CT, GA, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, NC, PA, RI, SC, VT, VA, and WV) is forecast at 2.38 billion pounds, up 4 percent from August but down slightly from 2007. The apple forecast in New York, at 1.20 billion pounds, is 4 percent higher than the August forecast but 8 percent lower than the 2007 estimate. Growers increased their expectations for this year's crop quantity. However, summer hail damage will divert much of the crop to processing. Pennsylvania's forecast, at 440 million pounds, is 10 percent higher than August but 6 percent lower than 2007. The harvest was 47 complete, and optimism about the production level has increased despite the spring weather damage. Summer hail storms reduced crop quality and increased the incidence of scabbing. Virginia's forecast of 230 million pounds is unchanged from August and up 7 percent from the 2007 estimate. Adequate summer rainfall maintained expectations for higher production. However, September rain and cold weather damage mitigated the rise in production. The apple forecast in North Carolina of 165 million pounds is unchanged from August but represents an increase of 175 percent from the freeze-affected crop of 2007. The apple crop was not severely affected by low precipitation levels, with 70 percent of the crop quality rated as good to excellent. The West Virginia forecast is set at 85 million pounds, down 3 percent from August but up 6 percent from 2007. Crop production progressed normally with no significant reports of damage. The production forecast for the Central States (IL, IN, IA, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, TN, and WI) is set at 874 million pounds, a decrease of 1 percent from August and 9 percent from 2007. Michigan's production forecast is 530 million pounds, down 2 percent from August and 31 percent below 2007. Apple harvest is progressing at a normal pace, however, summer hail damage will cause more apples to be sold for processing. Pecans: The October 1, 2008 forecast of pecan production is 204 million pounds (in-shell basis), down 47 percent from last year's crop and 2 percent below 2006. Improved varieties are expected to produce 171 million pounds or 84 percent of the total, while native and seedling varieties, at 32.8 million pounds, make up the remaining 16 percent. The 2008 crop is expected to be smaller than last year's in most producing States mainly because it is an off year in the alternate bearing pattern typical of pecans. However, production is forecast higher than last year in Kansas and Missouri because trees have recovered from the severe Easter 2007 freeze, while North Carolina and South Carolina weather conditions have been much more favorable than last season. Georgia's forecast, at 70 million pounds, is down 53 percent from last season's large crop, but up 66 percent from 2006. Pecan trees in Georgia escaped a spring freeze but were hurt by the drought and Hurricane Fay. The hurricane's high winds caused limb damage and excessive rain negatively impacted some south Georgia growers. Disease and insect problems have been minimal this year. New Mexico's production forecast, at 45.0 million pounds, is 39 percent less than last year and is down 4 percent from 2 years ago. Pecan conditions for the week ending September 28, 2008 were 27 percent fair, 37 percent good, and 36 percent excellent. The Texas forecast is 32.0 million pounds, 54 percent less than the 2007 crop and 32 percent less than 2005. After Hurricane Ike blew a lot of pecans off of the trees, crop prospects were reduced further from the light crop expected from the alternate bearing pattern. Production in Arizona is forecast at 15.5 million pounds, down 33 percent from last year, but 11 percent above the 2006 crop. Smaller growers reported wind damage and lack of water. Oklahoma production, at 13.0 million pounds, is down 57 percent from 2007 and 24 percent below 2 years ago. Ice storms and late freezes damaged trees. Pest and disease problems were reported above normal. Alabama's production is forecast at 8.00 million pounds, down 20 percent from 2007, but 33 percent above 2005. Growing conditions have been generally good and the State has escaped hurricane damage this season. The Louisiana forecast of 7.00 million pounds is down 50 percent from last year and 67 percent from 2006 mainly due to damage caused by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike. Grapes: U.S. grape production is forecast at 7.21 million tons, virtually unchanged from August 1 but up 3 percent from 2007. California leads the U.S. in grape production with 89 percent of the total. Washington and New York are the next largest producing States, with 5 percent and 2 percent, respectively. California=s all grape forecast, at 6.43 million tons, is up slightly from the August forecast and 4 percent above 2007. Washington growers expect to harvest 365,000 tons, down 3 percent from last month and a year ago. New York=s forecast, at 165,000 tons, is unchanged from the previous forecast but 8 percent below last year. California=s wine type grape production is expected to total 3.40 million tons, 53 percent of California=s total grape crop. The production forecast for wine type varieties is unchanged from the August forecast but up 3 percent from a year ago. Overall, bunch counts are down slightly from 2007 but quality is reported to be very good. California=s raisin type grape production is forecast at 2.20 million tons, 34 percent of California=s total grape crop. Production of raisin varieties is unchanged from last month but up 3 percent from 2007. Although a slightly above average sized raisin crop is expected, the quality is down from a year ago. California=s table type grape production is forecast at 830,000 tons, 13 percent of California=s total grape crop. Production of table varieties is up 4 percent from the August 1 forecast and 5 percent above last year. Late table type varieties continued to be harvested for fresh use in September. Fruit quality is excellent, although berry size is not as large as in some seasons. Washington=s production is forecast at 365,000 tons, down 3 percent from last month and a year ago. Wine grape production is forecast at 135,000 tons, unchanged from the August forecast but 6 percent above 2007. If realized, this will be Washington's largest wine grape crop on record, surpassing last year=s record crop. The increase in production is mostly due to more acreage coming into full production. The juice type grape forecast, at 230,000 tons, is down 4 percent from the previous forecast and 8 percent below the 2007 crop. Pollination problems were reported due to the cold, windy weather in the spring as well as damage from April frosts. Grape production for New York is forecast at 165,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but 8 percent below last year. In Erie County, the Chautauqua Region and the Finger Lakes Region encountered frost and hail this growing season. Many growers in Erie County reported a reduced crop while some are reporting a total loss. The majority of Long Island growers escaped much of the adverse weather and are expecting an above average crop. Michigan=s grape production is forecast at 71,000 tons, down 9 percent from August 1 and 29 percent below last year. Growers experienced multiple freezes in the spring and the amount of damage sustained varied across the State. Excessive rains in September also damaged grapes and caused them to drop off the vines. Pennsylvania=s grape production is forecast at 93,000 tons, 2 percent below the August forecast but up 11 percent from 2007. Growers are expecting a record crop this year. The previous record of 90,000 tons was in 2005. Overall, bunch counts and berry size are above average and quality is good. Mildew has affected some of the crop due to excessive rainfall. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.20 million pounds for August 2008, up 10 percent from July but 22 percent lower than a year ago. Total crop acreage for August is estimated at 2,040 acres, unchanged from July but down 3 percent from August 2007. Harvested area totaled 1,330 acres, unchanged from the previous month but 3 percent lower than August 2007. Low soil moisture levels were replenished by rainfall the first half of the month; however, conditions remained generally dry, and some areas of the State continued to take water conservation measures. In fields exposed to prolonged dry weather, gaps in the fruit columns became more evident. Warm temperatures allowed fruit ripening to continue at a steady pace. Field maintenance and planting preparations were ongoing, but the shortage of seed remained a concern for growers. Prunes (Dried Plums): California's 2008 prune production forecast is 120,000 dried tons, up 45 percent from last year's below normal crop of 83,000 tons but 39 percent below the 2006 crop. This forecast is carried forward from the June forecast. The 2008 prune crop was hit by a mid-April frost, with some growers reportedly losing 25 to 100 percent of their crop. While the frost was widespread across the State, the low lying orchards received the heaviest damage. The overall crop is still expected to be above 2007 but below previous high production levels. Prune demand is up, and the harvest and delivery is scheduled to be completed on time. Corn for Grain: Changes to Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production from Original Report Published October 10, 2008, by State and United States, Reference Date October 1, 2008 ---------------------------------------------------------------- : Planted : : : State :(All Purposes) : Harvested : Yield : Production : Change : Change : Change : Change ---------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Acres ---- Bushels 1,000 Bushels : AL : - - - - AR : - - - - CA : - - - - CO : - - - - DE : - - - - GA : - - - - IL : -200 -200 - -35,400 IN : -100 -100 - -16,000 IA : -300 -300 - -51,600 KS : - - - - KY : - - - - LA : - - - - MD : - - - - MI : -50 -50 - -7,000 MN : -100 -100 - -16,700 MS : - - - - MO : - - - - NE : -100 -100 - -16,100 NJ : - - - - NM : - - - - NY : - - - - NC : - - - - ND : -50 -50 - -6,350 OH : -100 -100 - -14,700 OK : - - - - PA : -20 -20 - -2,440 SC : - - - - SD : -50 -50 - -6,600 TN : - - - - TX : 50 50 - 6,350 VA : - - - - WA : - - - - WI : - - - - : Oth : Sts 1/ : - - - - : US : -1,020 -1,020 -0.1 -166,540 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, FL, ID, MT, OR, UT, WV, and WY. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2008 Summary." Soybeans for Beans: Changes to Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production from Original Report Published October 10, 2008, by State and United States, Reference Date October 1, 2008 ---------------------------------------------------------------- State : Planted : Harvested : Yield : Production : Change : Change : Change : Change ---------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Acres ---- Bushels 1,000 Bushels : AL : - - - - AR : - - - - DE : - - - - GA : - - - - IL : -100 -100 - -4,500 IN : -100 -100 - -4,200 IA : -200 -200 - -9,200 KS : - - - - KY : -10 -10 - -340 LA : - - - - MD : - - - - MI : - - - - MN : -200 -200 - -8,000 MS : 10 10 - 380 MO : -50 -50 - -1,850 NE : -100 -100 - -4,700 NJ : - - - - NY : -5 -5 - -220 NC : - - - - ND : -150 -150 - -4,650 OH : -100 -100 - -3,800 OK : - - - - PA : -10 -10 - -390 SC : - - - - SD : -50 -50 - -1,800 TN : - - - - TX : - - - - VA : - - - - WI : -40 -40 - -1,440 : Oth : Sts 1/ : - - - - : US : -1,105 -1,105 - -44,710 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include FL and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2008 Summary." Sorghum for Grain: Changes to Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production from Original Report Published October 10, 2008, by State and United States, Reference Date October 1, 2008 ---------------------------------------------------------------- : Planted : : : State :(All Purposes) : Harvested : Yield : Production : Change : Change : Change : Change ---------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres --- Bushels 1,000 Bushels : AR : -10 -10 - -900 CO : - - - - IL : - - - - KS : - - - - LA : - - - - MO : - - - - NE : - - - - NM : - - - - OK : - - - - SD : - - - - TX : 200 150 - 7,800 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 9 9 0.9 835 : US : 199 149 -0.2 7,735 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, KY, MS, NC, PA, SC, and TN. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2008 Summary." Canola: Changes to Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production from Original Report Published October 10, 2008, by State and United States, Reference Date October 1, 2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------ State : Planted : Harvested : Yield : Production : Change : Change : Change : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ : --- 1,000 Acres --- Pounds 1,000 Pounds : MN : - - - - MT : - - - - ND : -20 -20 - -30,400 : Oth Sts 1/: - - - - : US : -20 -20 - -30,400 ------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Other States include CO, ID, KS, MI, OK, OR, and WA. Sunflower: Changes to Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production from Original Report Published October 10, 2008, by State and United States, Reference Date October 1, 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Planted : Harvested : Yield : Production : Change : Change : Change : Change -------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres --- Pounds 1,000 Pounds : Oil : CO : - - * * KS : - - * * MN : - - * * NE : - - * * ND : -20 -20 * * SD : - - * * TX : 2 2 * * : Oth : Sts 1/ : 3 3 * * : US : -15 -15 * * : Non-Oil : CO : - - * * KS : - - * * MN : - - * * NE : - - * * ND : -5 -5 * * SD : - - * * TX : - - * * : Oth : Sts 1/ : - - * * : US : -5 -5 * * : All : CO : - - - - KS : - - - - MN : - - - - NE : - - - - ND : -25 -25 1 -36,050 SD : - - - - TX : 2 2 1 2,200 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 3 3 -6 3,750 : US : -20 -20 -1 -30,100 -------------------------------------------------------------------- * 2008 yield and production estimates for oil and non-oil varieties will be published in the "Crop Production 2008 Summary." 1/ Other States include CA, IL, MI, MO, MT, OK, WI, and WY. Dry Edible Beans: Changes to Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production from Original Report Published October 10, 2008, by State and United States, Reference Date October 1, 2008 ---------------------------------------------------------------- State : Planted : Harvested : Yield : Production : Change : Change :Change 1/: Change 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Acres --- Pounds 1,000 Cwt : CA : - - - - CO : - - - - ID : - - - - KS : - - - - MI : - - - - MN : - - - - MT 2/ : - - - - NE : - - - - NM 2/ : - - - - NY : - - - - ND : -10 -10 - -155 OR 2/ : - - - - SD : - - - - TX : - - - - UT 2/ : - - - - WA : - - - - WI 2/ : - - - - WY : - - - - : US : -10 -10 2 -155 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cleaned basis. 2/ Estimates were carried forward from an earlier forecast. Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecast Field Crop Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between September 24 and October 6 to gather information on expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, plant counts are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears, bolls, or pods and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet, and personal interviewers. Approximately 16,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields. Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the October 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produced about 75 percent of the U.S. production last season. In August and September 2008, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis: in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Field Crop Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Field Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecasts. Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. Estimates of planted acres for spring planted crops are subject to revision in the August Crop Production report if conditions altered the planting intentions since the mid-year survey. Planted acres may also be revised for cotton, peanuts, and rice in the September Crop Production report each year; spring wheat, Durum wheat, barley, and oats only in the Small Grains Annual report at the end of September; and all other spring planted crops in the October Crop Production report. Revisions to planted acres will only be made when either special survey data or administrative data are available. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last forecast. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the October 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain production forecast is 3.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.2 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 211 million bushels, ranging from 3 million bushels to 624 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times. This does not imply that the October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Root Mean : 20-Year Record of : : Square Error : Differences Between Forecast : : : : and Final Estimate : :------------------------------------------------------- Crop :Unit : : 90 : Quantity : Years : :Percent: Percent :------------------------------------ : : :Confidence: : : :Below:Above : : : Interval :Average:Smallest:Largest:Final:Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ Million ------ Number : : Corn for Grain :Bu : 3.6 6.2 211 3 624 9 11 Sorghum for Grain :Bu : 6.1 10.5 22 1 105 10 10 Rice :Cwt : 2.8 4.8 4 0 13 11 9 Soybeans for Beans:Bu : 2.3 3.9 42 1 103 9 11 Upland Cotton 1/ :Bales: 4.5 7.7 701 15 1,675 16 4 Dry Edible Beans :Cwt : 3.7 6.4 1 * 3 14 6 Oranges 1/ :Tons : 9.0 15.6 622 18 2,043 7 13 Oranges 1/ 2/ :Tons : 4.3 7.5 397 18 917 7 8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Less than 1 million. 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. 2/ Excluding freeze and hurricane seasons. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Jeff Geuder, Chief.................................................(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Lance Honig, Head..................................................(202) 720-2127 Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye..........................................(202) 720-8068 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings............................(202) 720-5944 Don Gephart - Hay, Oats, Sorghum...................................(202) 690-3234 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed...........................(202) 720-9526 Dawn Keen - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops......................(202) 720-7621 Anthony Prillaman - Peanuts, Rice..................................(202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds...............(202) 720-7369 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head..........................................(202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco.............(202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries..............................(202) 720-2157 Mike Jacobsen - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes......................................(202) 720-4288 Doug Marousek - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts...................(202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas.............................(202) 720-3250 Suzanne Avilla - Citrus, Tropical Fruits...........................(202) 720-5412 Faye Propsom - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes.................(202) 720-4285 Kim Ritchie - Hops.................................................(360) 902-1940 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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