Cr Pr 2-2 (1-09) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 12, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Down Slightly from December The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2008-09 season is 9.12 million tons, down slightly from the December 1 forecast and 10 percent lower than the 2007-08 final utilization. Florida's all orange forecast, at 162 million boxes (7.29 million tons), decreased 2 percent from the previous forecast and is down 5 percent from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 84.0 million boxes (3.78 million tons), down 3 percent from December but up slightly from last season. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 78.0 million boxes (3.51 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 10 percent from the 2007-08 crop. Fruit size is below average for the early, midseason, and navel crop and fruit drop continued to increase at a faster than average rate. Current fruit size and drop remained below average for the Valencia crop. The all orange forecast in California, at 46.5 million boxes (1.74 million tons), is 6 percent higher than October's forecast but 28 percent below last season. The navel forecast is 34.5 million boxes (1.29 million tons), up 8 percent from the October forecast but down 29 percent from 2007-08's final utilization. California's Valencia orange forecast is 12.0 million boxes (450,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 25 percent below last season. Navel harvest was slightly behind schedule, with picking slowed due to fog, rain, and cold temperatures. Fruit quality was reported as good. The Texas all orange forecast is 1.65 million boxes (71,000 tons), up 10 percent from October but 5 percent lower than last season. The early and midseason forecast is 1.45 million boxes (62,000 tons), up 12 percent from October but 3 percent less than the 2007-08 season. Texas Valencia oranges are forecast at 200,000 boxes (9,000 tons), unchanged from the October forecast but 15 percent below last season. The Arizona all orange forecast is 250,000 boxes (10,000 tons), unchanged from October but down 34 percent from the previous season. Navel utilization in Arizona is forecast at 150,000 boxes (6,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but 35 percent lower than last season. Valencia oranges in Arizona are forecast at 100,000 boxes (4,000 tons), unchanged from October but 33 percent below last season's final utilization. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2008-09 season is 1.62 gallons per box at 42 degrees Brix, up 3 percent from the December forecast but 3 percent lower than last season's final yield of 1.67 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.58 gallons per box, up 2 percent from last season's final yield of 1.55 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is expected to total 1.66 gallons per box, 7 percent lower than last year's final yield of 1.79 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on January 12, 2009. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Charles F. Conner Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Grains & Hay Hay Stocks 6 Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas 4 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit 5 Lemons 5 Oranges 5 Tangelos 5 Tangerines 5 Temples 5 Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops Potatoes 4 Crop Comments 14 Crop Summary 7 Information Contacts 18 Reliability of Production Data in this Report 17 Weather Maps 13 Weather Summary 14 Potatoes: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2007-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :---------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Acres ----- --- Cwt --- ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : Winter : CA : 11.0 9.0 11.0 9.0 230 210 2,258 2,530 1,890 : Total : 11.0 9.0 11.0 9.0 230 210 2,258 2,530 1,890 : Spring 1/ : AZ : 3.5 3.5 300 1,120 1,050 CA : 15.4 15.4 450 6,123 6,930 FL : 28.5 27.9 285 7,807 7,952 Hastings: 17.4 17.0 285 4,617 4,845 Other FL: 11.1 10.9 285 3,190 3,107 NC : 14.5 14.0 180 2,700 2,520 TX : 8.4 8.0 210 2,070 1,680 : Total : 70.3 68.8 293 19,820 20,132 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2008 revised. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Oct : 2,105 2,210 1,535 1,350 3,340 2,965 Nov : 2,100 2,425 1,365 1,460 3,075 2,645 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2006-07, 2007-08 and Forecasted January 1, 2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :------------------------------------------------------- :2006-07 : 2007-08 : 2008-09 :2006-07 : 2007-08 :2008-09 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------ 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ : 200 230 150 7 9 6 CA : 34,500 48,500 34,500 1,294 1,819 1,294 FL : 65,600 83,500 84,000 2,952 3,757 3,780 TX : 1,600 1,500 1,450 68 64 62 US :101,900 133,730 120,100 4,321 5,649 5,142 Valencia : AZ : 100 150 100 4 6 4 CA : 11,500 16,000 12,000 431 600 450 FL : 63,400 86,700 78,000 2,853 3,902 3,510 TX : 380 234 200 16 10 9 US : 75,380 103,084 90,300 3,304 4,518 3,973 All : AZ : 300 380 250 11 15 10 CA : 46,000 64,500 46,500 1,725 2,419 1,744 FL :129,000 170,200 162,000 5,805 7,659 7,290 TX : 1,980 1,734 1,650 84 74 71 US :177,280 236,814 210,400 7,625 10,167 9,115 Grapefruit : White : FL : 9,300 9,000 7,000 395 383 298 Colored : FL : 17,900 17,600 16,000 761 748 680 All : AZ : 100 100 150 3 3 5 CA : 5,500 5,700 4,500 184 191 151 FL : 27,200 26,600 23,000 1,156 1,131 978 TX : 7,100 6,100 5,700 284 244 228 US : 39,900 38,500 33,350 1,627 1,569 1,362 Tangerines and Mandarins: AZ 4/ : 300 400 250 11 15 9 CA 4/ : 3,500 5,700 7,000 131 214 263 FL : 4,600 5,500 4,900 219 261 233 US : 8,400 11,600 12,150 361 490 505 Lemons : AZ : 2,500 1,500 2,500 95 57 95 CA : 18,500 17,000 19,000 703 646 722 US : 21,000 18,500 21,500 798 703 817 Tangelos : FL : 1,250 1,500 1,500 56 68 68 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; tangerines-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Hay: Stocks on Farms by State and United States, December 1 and May 1, 2006-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Dec 1 : May 1 State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : AL : 1,065 1,318 1,540 144 150 AZ : 350 260 475 35 36 AR : 2,140 2,700 3,020 160 530 CA : 1,785 1,890 2,380 202 250 CO : 2,130 2,400 1,975 290 520 CT : 65 69 65 12 8 DE : 18 8 20 4 1 FL : 380 492 587 21 66 GA : 878 1,013 1,319 82 145 ID : 2,575 2,400 2,012 320 300 IL : 1,690 1,100 1,386 325 210 IN : 1,475 973 1,191 198 93 IA : 3,900 3,500 3,918 684 640 KS : 4,390 5,465 5,700 600 1,100 KY : 4,550 3,312 4,169 600 186 LA : 690 820 921 57 100 ME : 140 160 145 27 27 MD : 452 240 431 60 52 MA : 84 74 77 13 12 MI : 2,385 1,700 1,998 350 320 MN : 4,200 3,140 3,891 740 535 MS : 1,186 1,459 1,365 78 196 MO : 5,415 6,662 7,744 625 900 MT : 4,105 4,530 3,831 760 1,025 NE : 3,575 4,205 4,115 840 990 NV : 879 767 1,000 202 90 NH : 66 57 70 12 6 NJ : 97 68 94 10 5 NM : 470 580 600 105 125 NY : 1,451 1,674 1,453 326 283 NC : 1,280 682 962 120 79 ND : 4,375 4,990 4,032 609 1,260 OH : 2,155 1,653 1,992 356 165 OK : 3,275 6,100 4,595 400 1,600 OR : 1,840 1,700 1,561 180 150 PA : 3,485 1,750 2,500 520 500 RI : 8 6 10 3 1 SC : 468 350 451 65 55 SD : 5,120 7,816 7,660 1,150 1,930 TN : 3,103 2,121 3,038 425 215 TX : 7,550 13,400 8,483 885 4,906 UT : 1,410 1,130 1,300 185 215 VT : 223 228 175 38 60 VA : 2,190 1,705 2,174 268 226 WA : 1,339 1,335 1,182 240 200 WV : 816 720 916 136 92 WI : 3,577 3,467 3,603 1,308 790 WY : 1,600 1,900 1,532 220 240 : US : 96,400 104,089 103,658 14,990 21,585 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,234.0 3,767.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 85,982.0 78,640.0 Corn for Silage : 5,965.0 Hay, All : 60,062.0 Alfalfa : 20,980.0 All Other : 39,082.0 Oats : 3,217.0 1,395.0 Proso Millet : 520.0 460.0 Rice : 2,995.0 2,976.0 Rye : 1,260.0 269.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 8,284.0 7,271.0 Sorghum for Silage : 408.0 Wheat, All : 63,147.0 55,685.0 Winter : 46,281.0 42,098.0 39,614.0 Durum : 2,731.0 2,584.0 Other Spring : 14,135.0 13,487.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,011.0 989.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 354.0 340.0 Mustard Seed : 79.5 71.5 Peanuts : 1,534.0 1,507.0 Rapeseed : 0.2 0.2 Safflower : 202.0 195.0 Soybeans for Beans : 75,718.0 74,641.0 Sunflower : 2,516.5 2,396.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 9,470.0 7,728.4 Upland : 9,296.0 7,559.0 Amer-Pima : 174.0 169.4 Sugarbeets : 1,090.8 1,004.6 Sugarcane : 869.5 Tobacco : 354.2 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 17.5 8.0 Dry Edible Beans : 1,495.0 1,445.2 Dry Edible Peas : 882.5 847.3 Lentils : 271.0 263.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 Hops : 40.9 Peppermint Oil : 60.0 Potatoes, All : 1,057.8 1,044.7 Winter : 11.0 9.0 11.0 9.0 Spring : 70.3 68.8 Summer : 46.0 43.8 Fall : 930.5 921.1 Spearmint Oil : 20.4 Sweet Potatoes : 102.9 97.0 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 63.6 239,498 Corn for Grain :" : 153.9 12,101,238 Corn for Silage :Tons : 18.7 111,619 Hay, All :" : 2.43 145,672 Alfalfa :" : 3.32 69,620 All Other :" : 1.95 76,052 Oats :Bu : 63.5 88,635 Proso Millet :" : 32.3 14,880 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 6,846 203,733 Rye :Bu : 29.7 7,979 Sorghum for Grain :" : 65.0 472,342 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 13.8 5,646 Wheat, All :Bu : 44.9 2,499,524 Winter :" : 47.2 1,867,903 Durum :" : 32.8 84,877 Other Spring :" : 40.5 546,744 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,461 1,445,064 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 4,429.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 16.8 5,716 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 577 41,255 Peanuts :" : 3,416 5,147,900 Rapeseed :" : 1,500 300 Safflower :" : 1,592 310,433 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 39.6 2,959,174 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,429 3,422,840 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 810 13,035.6 Upland 2/ :" : 799 12,589.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,265 446.6 Sugarbeets :Tons : 26.7 26,820 Sugarcane :" : 35.3 30,690 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,260 800,527 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,300 104 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,768 25,558 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,448 12,270 Lentils 2/ :" : 917 2,411 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 580 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,160 7,300 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 30,000 1,800 Hops :" : 1,971 80,630.1 Peppermint Oil :" : 92 5,499 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 395 412,580 Winter :" : 230 210 2,530 1,890 Spring :" : 293 20,132 Summer :" : 309 13,532 Fall :" : 409 376,386 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 118 2,399 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 189 18,345 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2007-2009 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :----------------------------------------- : : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit :Tons : 1,627 1,569 1,362 Lemons :" : 798 703 817 Oranges :" : 7,625 10,167 9,115 Tangelos (FL) :" : 56 68 68 Tangerines :" : 361 490 505 : : Noncitrus : : Apples :1,000 Lbs: 9,089.4 9,242.2 Apricots :Tons : 88.5 86.8 Bananas (HI) :Lbs : 25,600.0 Grapes :Tons : 7,037.3 7,206.1 Olives (CA) :" : 132.5 65.0 Papayas (HI) :Lbs : 33,400.0 Peaches :Tons : 1,127.2 1,093.9 Pears :" : 873.0 821.8 Prunes, Dried (CA) :" : 83.0 120.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) :" : 12.1 18.8 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled) :Lbs : 1,390,000 1,500,000 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) :Tons : 37.0 34.0 Pecans (in-shell) :Lbs : 387,305 189,060 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) :Tons : 328.0 375.0 Maple Syrup :Gals : 1,517 1,635 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2008-09 season. 2/ Production years are 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2008-09. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2007-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,713,460 1,524,470 Corn for Grain 2/ :34,796,060 31,824,820 Corn for Silage : 2,413,980 Hay, All 3/ : 24,306,490 Alfalfa : 8,490,400 All Other : 15,816,090 Oats : 1,301,890 564,540 Proso Millet : 210,440 186,160 Rice : 1,212,050 1,204,360 Rye : 509,910 108,860 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,352,450 2,942,500 Sorghum for Silage : 165,110 Wheat, All 3/ :25,554,960 22,535,160 Winter :18,729,460 17,036,640 16,031,390 Durum : 1,105,210 1,045,720 Other Spring : 5,720,290 5,458,050 : Oilseeds : Canola : 409,140 400,240 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 143,260 137,590 Mustard Seed : 32,170 28,940 Peanuts : 620,790 609,870 Rapeseed : 80 80 Safflower : 81,750 78,910 Soybeans for Beans :30,642,320 30,206,470 Sunflower : 1,018,400 969,640 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 3,832,410 3,127,610 Upland : 3,762,000 3,059,050 Amer-Pima : 70,420 68,550 Sugarbeets : 441,440 406,550 Sugarcane : 351,880 Tobacco : 143,340 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 7,080 3,240 Dry Edible Beans : 605,010 584,860 Dry Edible Peas : 357,140 342,890 Lentils : 109,670 106,430 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 Ginger Root (HI) : 20 Hops : 16,550 Peppermint Oil : 24,280 Potatoes, All 3/ : 428,080 422,780 Winter : 4,450 3,640 4,450 3,640 Spring : 28,450 27,840 Summer : 18,620 17,730 Fall : 376,560 372,760 Spearmint Oil : 8,260 Sweet Potatoes : 41,640 39,250 Taro (HI) 5/ : 160 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2007-2008 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.42 5,214,450 Corn for Grain : 9.66 307,385,600 Corn for Silage : 41.95 101,259,050 Hay, All 2/ : 5.44 132,151,420 Alfalfa : 7.44 63,158,200 All Other : 4.36 68,993,210 Oats : 2.28 1,286,530 Proso Millet : 1.81 337,470 Rice : 7.67 9,241,170 Rye : 1.86 202,680 Sorghum for Grain : 4.08 11,998,040 Sorghum for Silage : 31.02 5,121,970 Wheat, All 2/ : 3.02 68,025,900 Winter : 3.17 50,835,990 Durum : 2.21 2,309,970 Other Spring : 2.73 14,879,930 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.64 655,470 Cottonseed 3/ : 4,017,920 Flaxseed : 1.06 145,190 Mustard Seed : 0.65 18,710 Peanuts : 3.83 2,335,050 Rapeseed : 1.68 140 Safflower : 1.78 140,810 Soybeans for Beans : 2.67 80,535,520 Sunflower : 1.60 1,552,570 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.91 2,838,170 Upland : 0.90 2,740,930 Amer-Pima : 1.42 97,240 Sugarbeets : 59.85 24,330,690 Sugarcane : 79.12 27,841,500 Tobacco : 2.53 363,110 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.46 4,720 Dry Edible Beans : 1.98 1,159,290 Dry Edible Peas : 1.62 556,560 Lentils : 1.03 109,360 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 26,310 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.30 3,310 Ginger Root (HI) : 33.63 820 Hops : 2.21 36,570 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 2,490 Potatoes, All 2/ : 44.26 18,714,320 Winter : 25.78 23.54 114,760 85,730 Spring : 32.80 913,170 Summer : 34.63 613,800 Fall : 45.80 17,072,580 Spearmint Oil : 0.13 1,090 Sweet Potatoes : 21.20 832,120 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2007-2009 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :-------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,475,990 1,423,370 1,235,590 Lemons : 723,930 637,750 741,170 Oranges : 6,917,280 9,223,350 8,268,990 Tangelos (FL) : 50,800 61,690 61,690 Tangerines : 327,490 444,520 458,130 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,122,880 4,192,190 Apricots : 80,250 78,780 Bananas (HI) : 11,610 Grapes : 6,384,090 6,537,260 Olives (CA) : 120,200 58,970 Papayas (HI) : 15,150 Peaches : 1,022,530 992,320 Pears : 791,930 745,480 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 75,300 108,860 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 10,980 17,060 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 630,490 680,390 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) : 33,570 30,840 Pecans (in-shell) : 175,680 85,760 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) : 297,560 340,190 Maple Syrup : 7,580 8,170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2008-09 season. 2/ Production years are 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2008-09. December Weather Summary Stormy weather across the Nation's northern tier buried winter grains beneath a protective blanket of snow but disrupted rural travel and increased stress on winter-weary livestock. December snowfall records were established in dozens of locations from Washington to New York, and a few all-time monthly snowfall records were also broken. The remainder of the West also received some precipitation, although not as consistently. For example, the Sierra Nevada Region received a monthly average of 6 inches of precipitation, boosting the water equivalency of the mountain snow pack from 1 inch (13 percent of average for the date) on November 30 to 7 inches (74 percent) by the end of December. At lower elevations, rain provided some relief for California's drought-stressed pastures and rangeland. Farther east, a dry regime across the southern Plains resulted in a deterioration in the condition of the winter wheat crop. In addition, high winds raised dust on several occasions across the southern High Plains. By January 3, nearly half (46 percent) of the Texas winter wheat crop was rated in very poor to poor condition, up from 16 percent on November 23. Similarly, one-fifth of Oklahoma's wheat was rated very poor to poor on January 3, up from 6 percent on November 23. In contrast, just 9 percent of the winter wheat in Kansas was rated very poor to poor in early January, along with 4 to 5 percent of the crop in Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Elsewhere, December rainfall significantly eased long-term drought across the interior Southeast, while occasional rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow fell in the Northeast. In contrast, most of the lower Southeast, including Florida, remained dry during December. As a result, irrigation requirements increased in Florida's citrus and winter crop areas. December Agricultural Summary Drier than normal weather occurred in the southern Great Plains, Florida, and Northern California, while above normal precipitation occurred in much of the northern half of the country and the Southeast. Snow cover was adequate in the Dakotas, Montana, and Nebraska for winter wheat protection. Winter wheat conditions in Oklahoma and Kansas declined due to lack of moisture. Below-normal temperatures prevailed across most of the Corn Belt, maintaining snow cover in northern areas of the region. Several States in the region experienced delays in row crop harvest due to the wet conditions. Above average precipitation and near normal to above normal temperatures across the Southeast encouraged winter wheat growth and improved soil moisture conditions. Cotton and soybean harvests continued to lag behind normal due to the wet weather while Louisiana sugarcane harvest was complete by January 1. California and Florida producers continued to harvest seasonal fruits and vegetables. Crop Comments Winter Potatoes: California's winter potato production for 2009 is forecast at 1.89 million cwt, down 25 percent from the previous year and 16 percent below 2007. Harvested area in California is forecast at 9,000 acres, down 18 percent from 2008. Yield is expected to average 210 cwt per acre, 20 cwt below last year. If realized, this will be California's lowest winter potato yield since 1993. A light tuber set for this year's crop has led to lower yield expectations. Spring Potatoes: Production for 2008 is estimated at 20.1 million cwt, up 3 percent from the May forecast and 2 percent above 2007. Harvested area totaled 68,800 acres, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 2 percent from a year ago. The average yield of 293 cwt per acre is up 4 cwt from the May forecast and 11 cwt above 2007. Florida production is estimated at 7.95 million cwt, down 1 percent from the May 1 forecast but 2 percent above the 2007 production. In California, production increased 13 percent from last year due to a yield increase of 55 cwt per acre. Most growers reported excellent growing conditions with better than average yields. Production in Texas decreased 19 percent from 2007 largely due to an 11 percent decrease in harvested acres. Growers in North Carolina produced 7 percent fewer spring potatoes than in the previous year and production in Arizona decreased 6 percent from last year. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.65 million pounds for November 2008, down 11 percent from October and 14 percent lower than a year ago. Total crop area for November is estimated at 2,425 acres, up 10 percent from October and up 15 percent from November 2007. Harvested area totaled 1,460 acres, up 8 percent from the previous month and 7 percent higher than November 2007. Weather conditions during November were generally dry, but periods of heavy showers helped replenish soil moisture levels in a few locations. In orchards exposed to prolonged dry weather, gaps in fruit columns remained evident. Young orchards made steady progress and regular spraying programs kept weeds and insects under control. Although production was good for some growers, low demand hampered sales, resulting in unsold fruit. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2008-09 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.36 million tons, down 1 percent from the December 1 forecast and 13 percent lower than 2007-08 final utilization of 1.57 million tons. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes (978 million tons), unchanged from the December forecast but 14 percent below last season. Weather was dry in the principal grapefruit growing regions of Florida during December, prompting growers to increase irrigation to keep both the trees and fruit in good condition. A short cold snap during the third week of November was beneficial to the color and overall quality of the fruit. The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 7.00 million boxes (298,000 tons), unchanged from December but down 22 percent from 2007-08 final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), is unchanged from the December 1 forecast but 9 percent lower than last season. Average fruit size of both white and colored varieties is expected to be larger than average at harvest. Approximately two-thirds of the colored grapefruit harvested to date was for fresh market consumption and fruit quality was excellent. The Texas grapefruit production forecast is 5.70 million boxes (228,000 tons), up 8 percent from the October forecast but 7 percent lower than last season. Grapefruit production in California is forecast at 4.50 million boxes (151,000 tons), down 18 percent from the October forecast and 21 percent below last season. Melo Gold and Cocktail grapefruit and Chandler pummelos were harvested in the Central Valley. Smaller than average fruit sizes were reported. Arizona grapefruit production is forecast at 150 thousand boxes (5,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 50 percent from last season. Lemons: The forecast for the 2008-09 U.S. lemon crop is 817,000 tons, unchanged from the October 1 forecast but up 16 percent from 2007-08. California's production is forecast at 19.0 million boxes (722,000 tons), unchanged from October but up 12 percent from last season. Demand of California lemons has kept up with supply and supply levels have remained about normal. Quality of harvested fruit was reported as good but some fruit drop occurred in desert locations. The production forecast for Arizona is 2.50 million boxes (95,000 tons), up 67 percent from the previous crop year but unchanged from the October forecast. Fruit quality was reported as good, with above average fruit size. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.50 million boxes (68,000 tons), unchanged from the December 1 forecast and equal to last season's final production. The fruit size for the 2008-09 crop is slightly above average and the drop rate is below average. As of January 1, approximately 35 percent of the crop had been harvested. Tangerines and Mandarins: The U.S. tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 505,000 tons, up 5 percent from the December 1 forecast and up 3 percent from the 2007-08 season. California's tangerine and mandarin forecast is a record-high 7.00 million boxes (263,000 tons), up 11 percent from the October forecast and 23 percent higher than last season. Harvesting of Satsuma, Clementine, and Fairchild varieties was underway. Picking was slowed at times due to cold, wet weather but fruit quality was reported as excellent. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.90 million boxes (233,000 tons), unchanged from December but down 11 percent from 2007-08 final utilization. Harvest of early tangerine varieties was nearly 80 percent complete. Fruit size of the later maturing Honey variety has been below average and fruit drop has been slightly above average. Arizona's forecast, at 250,000 boxes (9,000 tons), is down 17 percent from October and 38 percent lower than last season. Florida Citrus: Overall, temperatures were average for the month of December in all citrus producing counties. Weather conditions were generally dry, with less than an inch of rain falling in many areas during the month. Growers irrigated regularly, minimizing any potential negative affect from the dry weather. Weekly processing of early midseason oranges peaked the third week of December. Navel orange harvesting increased after Thanksgiving, but dropped significantly after the holidays when the heavy emphasis on gift fruit packing subsided. Grapefruit quality improved to excellent after a beneficial cold snap the third week of November. Grove activity, other than harvesting, included irrigating, preparing groves for harvest, fertilizing, and post-harvest hedging. Scouting for greening and removal of affected trees continued in all areas. Arizona Citrus: Citrus groves were reported to be in good condition, with good fruit quality and size. Tangerines, navel oranges, and lemons were harvested during December. Texas Citrus: Many citrus groves suffered damage from Hurricane Dolly, which made landfall in southern Texas in July. Affected operations experienced an estimated 20 percent crop loss, but in December remaining fruit was reported to be of very good quality and size overall. California Citrus: Harvest of Navel oranges, lemons, pummelos, Satsuma and Clementine mandarins, grapefruit, and tangerines continued. Harvest slowed during the second half of December due to wet and cold weather, but the cooler temperatures helped advance citrus color. Citrus growers were irrigating, applying foliar nutrients, protecting their crops from freezing temperatures, and treating to control fungus, insects, and weeds. Thrips were also being monitored. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Grape growers continued to prune, irrigate, cultivate, and remove old vineyards. Only a few grape varieties were still being picked, including Autumn Royal, Christmas Rose, Crimson Seedless, and Kyoho. Harvesting of pomegranates and jujubes ended in Fresno County and kiwifruit harvest was complete in Tulare County. Post-harvest activities such as pruning and irrigation were underway in stone-fruit orchards. Harvest of raspberry and strawberry nursery stock continued. Olives were harvested for oil. Almond and pistachio trees were being planted and pruning was underway in established orchards. Hay Stocks on Farms: Stocks of all hay stored on farms totaled 104 million tons on December 1, 2008, down less than 1 percent from a year ago. Disappearance of hay from May-December 2008 totaled 63.6 million tons, compared with 57.8 million tons for the same period a year ago. Compared with December 1, 2007, hay stocks increased in most areas east of the Mississippi and portions of the Southwest. The growing conditions were favorable in the South in 2008 in contrast to the extreme drought conditions that prevailed in the region in 2007. The Rocky Mountain and northern Great Plain States showed decreases in stocks for 2008. Stocks in Texas and Oklahoma showed the largest decreases with 37 and 25 percent, respectively. Reliability of January 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid- July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 4.8 percent. However, if you exclude the 5 abnormal production years (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.8 percent, or 3.6 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.3 percent, or 6.2 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 385,000 tons (355,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 106,000 tons to 1.13 million tons (106,000 tons to 638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 5 times and above 10 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Lance Honig, Chief (202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Jacqueline Moore, Head (202) 720-2127 Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944 Don Gephart - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 690-3234 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526 Jacqueline Moore - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-2127 Anthony Prillaman - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head (202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries (202) 720-2157 Mike Jacobsen - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries, Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288 Dawn Keen - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts (202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250 Suzanne Avilla - Citrus, Coffee, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412 Faye Propsom - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285 Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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