Cr Pr 2-2 (3-09) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 11, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Up 1 Percent from February The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2008-09 season is 9.05 million tons, up 1 percent from the February 1 forecast but 11 percent lower than the 2007-08 final utilization of 10.2 million tons. Florida's all orange forecast, at 158 million boxes (7.11 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 7 percent from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 85.0 million boxes (3.83 million tons), up 2 percent from the February forecast and last season. Florida's Valencia forecast, at 73.0 million boxes (3.29 million tons), is down 3 percent from the previous forecast and is 16 percent less than the 2007-08 crop. Weather conditions over the past two months have had a significant impact on remaining oranges. Two freezes, one in late January and one in early February, caused some damage to unharvested fruit, primarily for late orange varieties. Also, citrus producing areas received minimal precipitation during the winter months, resulting in drought conditions. Objective survey measurements taken during February showed a decrease in fruit size and an increase in the drop rate for the Valencia crop. The California Valencia orange forecast is 15.0 million boxes (563,000 tons), up 25 percent from the previous forecast but down 6 percent from last season's final utilization. This brings California's all orange forecast to 49.5 million boxes, up 6 percent from the January 1 forecast but down 23 percent from the 2007-08 crop. Limited harvesting of Valencia oranges began at the end of February and fruit quality was good. Objective survey measurements taken during January and February indicated a lighter than normal average fruit set, while average fruit size measured larger than last year. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2008-09 season is 1.64 gallons per box at 42 degrees Brix, up 2 percent from the February forecast but 2 percent lower than last season's final yield of 1.67 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion increased to 1.60 gallons per box, up 3 percent from last season's final yield of 1.55 gallons per box. The Valencia portion increased to 1.70 gallons per box, 5 percent lower than last year's final yield of 1.79 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on March 11, 2009. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Joseph W. Glauber Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas..........................................................4 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit.......................................................5 Lemons...........................................................5 Oranges..........................................................5 Tangelos.........................................................5 Tangerines and Mandarins.........................................5 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Sugarcane........................................................4 Crop Comments..........................................................13 Crop Summary............................................................6 Information Contacts...................................................17 Reliability of Production Data in this Report..........................16 Weather Maps...........................................................12 Weather Summary........................................................13 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2007-2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ----- Tons ----- --- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 375.0 384.0 36.0 33.7 13,500 12,941 HI 2/ : 20.4 20.0 73.2 80.0 1,493 1,600 LA 2/ : 390.0 380.0 30.4 29.0 11,856 11,020 TX 2/ : 42.5 40.0 33.5 39.8 1,424 1,592 : US : 827.9 824.0 34.2 33.0 28,273 27,153 : For Seed : FL : 18.0 16.0 37.6 39.4 677 630 HI 2/ : 2.5 2.0 28.3 34.0 71 68 LA 2/ : 30.0 25.0 30.4 29.0 912 725 TX 2/ : 1.2 1.5 30.4 39.8 36 60 : US : 51.7 44.5 32.8 33.3 1,696 1,483 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 393.0 400.0 36.1 33.9 14,177 13,571 HI 2/ : 22.9 22.0 68.3 75.8 1,564 1,668 LA 2/ : 420.0 405.0 30.4 29.0 12,768 11,745 TX 2/ : 43.7 41.5 33.4 39.8 1,460 1,652 : US : 879.6 868.5 34.1 33.0 29,969 28,636 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2008 Summary." Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Dec : 2,410 1,465 2,785 Jan : 2,040 2,290 1,430 1,340 2,880 2,080 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2006-07, 2007-08 and Forecasted March 1, 2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2006-07 : 2007-08 : 2008-09 : 2006-07 : 2007-08 : 2008-09 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early, Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 200 230 150 7 9 6 CA 4/ : 34,500 48,500 34,500 1,294 1,819 1,294 FL : 65,600 83,500 85,000 2,952 3,757 3,825 TX 4/ : 1,600 1,500 1,450 68 64 62 US : 101,900 133,730 121,100 4,321 5,649 5,187 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 100 150 100 4 6 4 CA : 11,500 16,000 15,000 431 600 563 FL : 63,400 86,700 73,000 2,853 3,902 3,285 TX 4/ : 380 234 200 16 10 9 US : 75,380 103,084 88,300 3,304 4,518 3,861 All : AZ 4/ : 300 380 250 11 15 10 CA : 46,000 64,500 49,500 1,725 2,419 1,857 FL : 129,000 170,200 158,000 5,805 7,659 7,110 TX 4/ : 1,980 1,734 1,650 84 74 71 US : 177,280 236,814 209,400 7,625 10,167 9,048 Grapefruit : White : FL : 9,300 9,000 7,000 395 383 298 Colored : FL : 17,900 17,600 16,000 761 748 680 All : AZ 4/ : 100 100 150 3 3 5 CA 4/ : 5,500 5,700 4,500 184 191 151 FL : 27,200 26,600 23,000 1,156 1,131 978 TX 4/ : 7,100 6,100 5,700 284 244 228 US : 39,900 38,500 33,350 1,627 1,569 1,362 Tangerines and Manda: AZ 4/ 5/ : 300 400 250 11 15 9 CA 4/ 5/ : 3,500 5,700 7,000 131 214 263 FL : 4,600 5,500 4,000 219 261 190 US : 8,400 11,600 11,250 361 490 462 Lemons 4/ : AZ : 2,500 1,500 2,500 95 57 95 CA : 18,500 17,000 19,000 703 646 722 US : 21,000 18,500 21,500 798 703 817 Tangelos : FL : 1,250 1,500 1,200 56 68 54 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; tangerines and mandarins-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 4/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 5/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2008-2009 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,234.0 3,767.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 85,982.0 78,640.0 Corn for Silage : 5,965.0 Hay, All : 60,062.0 Alfalfa : 20,980.0 All Other : 39,082.0 Oats : 3,217.0 1,395.0 Proso Millet : 520.0 460.0 Rice : 2,995.0 2,976.0 Rye : 1,260.0 269.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 8,284.0 7,271.0 Sorghum for Silage : 408.0 Wheat, All : 63,147.0 55,685.0 Winter : 46,281.0 42,098.0 39,614.0 Durum : 2,731.0 2,584.0 Other Spring : 14,135.0 13,487.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,011.0 989.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 354.0 340.0 Mustard Seed : 79.5 71.5 Peanuts : 1,534.0 1,507.0 Rapeseed : 0.2 0.2 Safflower : 202.0 195.0 Soybeans for Beans : 75,718.0 74,641.0 Sunflower : 2,516.5 2,396.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 9,470.0 7,728.4 Upland : 9,296.0 7,559.0 Amer-Pima : 174.0 169.4 Sugarbeets : 1,090.8 1,004.6 Sugarcane : 868.5 Tobacco : 354.2 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 17.5 8.0 Dry Edible Beans : 1,495.0 1,445.2 Dry Edible Peas : 882.5 847.3 Lentils : 271.0 263.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 Hops : 40.9 Peppermint Oil : 60.0 Potatoes, All : 1,057.8 1,044.7 Winter : 11.0 9.0 11.0 9.0 Spring : 70.3 68.8 Summer : 46.0 43.8 Fall : 930.5 921.1 Spearmint Oil : 20.4 Sweet Potatoes : 102.9 97.0 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2008-2009 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ----- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 63.6 239,498 Corn for Grain :" : 153.9 12,101,238 Corn for Silage :Tons : 18.7 111,619 Hay, All :" : 2.43 145,672 Alfalfa :" : 3.32 69,620 All Other :" : 1.95 76,052 Oats :Bu : 63.5 88,635 Proso Millet :" : 32.3 14,880 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 6,846 203,733 Rye :Bu : 29.7 7,979 Sorghum for Grain :" : 65.0 472,342 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 13.8 5,646 Wheat, All :Bu : 44.9 2,499,524 Winter :" : 47.2 1,867,903 Durum :" : 32.8 84,877 Other Spring :" : 40.5 546,744 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,461 1,445,064 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 4,429.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 16.8 5,716 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 577 41,255 Peanuts :" : 3,416 5,147,900 Rapeseed :" : 1,500 300 Safflower :" : 1,592 310,433 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 39.6 2,959,174 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,429 3,422,840 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 810 13,035.6 Upland 2/ :" : 799 12,589.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,265 446.6 Sugarbeets :Tons : 26.7 26,820 Sugarcane :" : 33.0 28,636 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,260 800,527 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,300 104 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,768 25,558 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,448 12,270 Lentils 2/ :" : 917 2,411 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 580 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,160 7,300 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 30,000 1,800 Hops :" : 1,971 80,630.1 Peppermint Oil :" : 92 5,499 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 395 412,580 Winter :" : 230 210 2,530 1,890 Spring :" : 293 20,132 Summer :" : 309 13,532 Fall :" : 409 376,386 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 118 2,399 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 189 18,345 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2007-2009 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :----------------------------------------- : : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit :Tons : 1,627 1,569 1,362 Lemons :" : 798 703 817 Oranges :" : 7,625 10,167 9,048 Tangelos (FL) :" : 56 68 54 Tangerines and Mandarins :" : 361 490 462 : : Noncitrus : : Apples :1,000 Lbs: 9,089.4 10,035.2 Apricots :Tons : 88.5 81.5 Bananas (HI) :Lbs : 25,600.0 22,800.0 Grapes :Tons : 7,037.3 7,434.9 Olives (CA) :" : 132.5 66.8 Papayas (HI) :Lbs : 33,400.0 33,100.0 Peaches :Tons : 1,127.2 1,121.9 Pears :" : 873.0 818.5 Prunes, Dried (CA) :" : 83.0 126.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) :" : 12.1 15.6 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled) :Lbs : 1,390,000 1,550,000 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) :Tons : 37.0 32.0 Pecans (in-shell) :Lbs : 387,305 191,080 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) :Tons : 328.0 375.0 Maple Syrup :Gals : 1,517 1,635 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2008-09 season. 2/ Production years are 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2008-09. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2008-2009 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,713,460 1,524,470 Corn for Grain 2/ :34,796,060 31,824,820 Corn for Silage : 2,413,980 Hay, All 3/ : 24,306,490 Alfalfa : 8,490,400 All Other : 15,816,090 Oats : 1,301,890 564,540 Proso Millet : 210,440 186,160 Rice : 1,212,050 1,204,360 Rye : 509,910 108,860 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,352,450 2,942,500 Sorghum for Silage : 165,110 Wheat, All 3/ :25,554,960 22,535,160 Winter :18,729,460 17,036,640 16,031,390 Durum : 1,105,210 1,045,720 Other Spring : 5,720,290 5,458,050 : Oilseeds : Canola : 409,140 400,240 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 143,260 137,590 Mustard Seed : 32,170 28,940 Peanuts : 620,790 609,870 Rapeseed : 80 80 Safflower : 81,750 78,910 Soybeans for Beans :30,642,320 30,206,470 Sunflower : 1,018,400 969,640 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 3,832,410 3,127,610 Upland : 3,762,000 3,059,050 Amer-Pima : 70,420 68,550 Sugarbeets : 441,440 406,550 Sugarcane : 351,470 Tobacco : 143,340 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 7,080 3,240 Dry Edible Beans : 605,010 584,860 Dry Edible Peas : 357,140 342,890 Lentils : 109,670 106,430 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 Ginger Root (HI) : 20 Hops : 16,550 Peppermint Oil : 24,280 Potatoes, All 3/ : 428,080 422,780 Winter : 4,450 3,640 4,450 3,640 Spring : 28,450 27,840 Summer : 18,620 17,730 Fall : 376,560 372,760 Spearmint Oil : 8,260 Sweet Potatoes : 41,640 39,250 Taro (HI) 5/ : 160 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2008-2009 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.42 5,214,450 Corn for Grain : 9.66 307,385,600 Corn for Silage : 41.95 101,259,050 Hay, All 2/ : 5.44 132,151,420 Alfalfa : 7.44 63,158,200 All Other : 4.36 68,993,210 Oats : 2.28 1,286,530 Proso Millet : 1.81 337,470 Rice : 7.67 9,241,170 Rye : 1.86 202,680 Sorghum for Grain : 4.08 11,998,040 Sorghum for Silage : 31.02 5,121,970 Wheat, All 2/ : 3.02 68,025,900 Winter : 3.17 50,835,990 Durum : 2.21 2,309,970 Other Spring : 2.73 14,879,930 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.64 655,470 Cottonseed 3/ : 4,017,920 Flaxseed : 1.06 145,190 Mustard Seed : 0.65 18,710 Peanuts : 3.83 2,335,050 Rapeseed : 1.68 140 Safflower : 1.78 140,810 Soybeans for Beans : 2.67 80,535,520 Sunflower : 1.60 1,552,570 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.91 2,838,170 Upland : 0.90 2,740,930 Amer-Pima : 1.42 97,240 Sugarbeets : 59.85 24,330,690 Sugarcane : 73.91 25,978,140 Tobacco : 2.53 363,110 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.46 4,720 Dry Edible Beans : 1.98 1,159,290 Dry Edible Peas : 1.62 556,560 Lentils : 1.03 109,360 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 26,310 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.30 3,310 Ginger Root (HI) : 33.63 820 Hops : 2.21 36,570 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 2,490 Potatoes, All 2/ : 44.26 18,714,320 Winter : 25.78 23.54 114,760 85,730 Spring : 32.80 913,170 Summer : 34.63 613,800 Fall : 45.80 17,072,580 Spearmint Oil : 0.13 1,090 Sweet Potatoes : 21.20 832,120 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2007-2009 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :-------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,475,990 1,423,370 1,235,590 Lemons : 723,930 637,750 741,170 Oranges : 6,917,280 9,223,350 8,208,210 Tangelos (FL) : 50,800 61,690 48,990 Tangerines and Mandarins : 327,490 444,520 419,120 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,122,880 4,551,890 Apricots : 80,250 73,940 Bananas (HI) : 11,610 10,340 Grapes : 6,384,090 6,744,840 Olives (CA) : 120,200 60,600 Papayas (HI) : 15,150 15,010 Peaches : 1,022,530 1,017,780 Pears : 791,930 742,490 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 75,300 114,310 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 10,980 14,150 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 630,490 703,070 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) : 33,570 29,030 Pecans (in-shell) : 175,680 86,670 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) : 297,560 340,190 Maple Syrup : 7,580 8,170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2008-09 season. 2/ Production years are 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2008-09. February Weather Summary Much-needed precipitation doubled the water content of the Sierra Nevada snow pack and aided California's drought-stressed pastures and rangeland. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the water equivalent of the Sierra Nevada snow pack climbed from 10 to 20 inches (from 58 to 77 percent of average for the date) during February. In contrast, winter wheat conditions continued to decline across the southern Plains due to drought intensification. In Texas, nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of the winter wheat was rated in very poor to poor condition on March 1, up from 46 percent on January 3 and 16 percent on November 23. By early March, very poor to poor conditions were also noted on 42 and 15 percent of the wheat acreage in Oklahoma and Kansas, respectively. Farther north and east, however, heavy precipitation occurred from the Dakotas eastward into the Great Lakes region, maintaining adequate to locally excessive moisture reserves. Elsewhere, drier-than-normal conditions prevailed during February across the majority of the South and East. Southeastern drought concerns were greatest, however, across Florida's peninsula, where citrus producers irrigated to ensure favorable moisture in orchards for the upcoming bloom season. Warmer-than-normal conditions were observed during February in a broad area stretching from the Rockies into the Midwest. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees F above normal across the southern half of the Plains. In contrast, cooler-than-normal weather prevailed across the northernmost Plains, the lower Southeast, and the Far West. February readings averaged at least 5 degrees F below normal in much of North Dakota and a few locations in Florida and southern Georgia. On February 5, Florida's peninsula experienced a freeze similar to the one observed on January 22. Like the earlier freeze, citrus and sugarcane appeared to escape significant harm, while tender vegetables, such as tomatoes, beans, and sweet corn, suffered varying degrees of freeze damage. February Agricultural Summary Conditions were abnormally wet in areas along the Pacific Coast, throughout most of the Corn Belt, and in some central locations of the Delta where upwards of 200 percent of normal precipitation fell during the month. Locations in northern California received between 12 and 15 inches of precipitation during the month which lessened irrigation demands and aided wheat development in the area. Areas of the Southwest suffered from unusually dry conditions, showing precipitation totals less than 5 percent of normal. Due to the lack of rain, wheat producers in the Northern High Plains of Texas were irrigating their crop. The Southeast and several Mid-Atlantic States were drier than normal with monthly precipitation totaling less than 25 percent of normal in many areas. Producers without irrigation capabilities were concerned that spring planting may be delayed as a result of the dry weather. With the exception of portions of the Southeast and northeastern Montana and western North Dakota where temperatures averaged 6 to 10 degrees below normal, temperatures across much of the country were above average for the month. A freeze in early February damaged vegetables and sugarcane in Florida and left citrus growers busy taking preventative measures to lessen the impact of the cold temperatures. Freezing temperatures in Georgia damaged some high bush blueberries and prevented growers from transplanting cabbage. In contrast, several locations in the central and southern Great Plains felt temperatures as much as 8 to 10 degrees warmer than normal. Crop Comments Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2008 is estimated at 28.6 million tons, down 5 percent from February and 4 percent below 2007. Area harvested and to be harvested for sugar and seed, at 868,500 acres, is down 3,000 acres from last month, down 11,000 acres from last year, and is the smallest acreage harvested since 1990. Yield is estimated at 33.0 tons per acre, down 1.6 tons from last month and 1.1 tons below the 2007 crop. Production in Florida is estimated at 13.6 million tons for the 2008 crop year, down 10 percent from February and 4 percent lower than 2007. Florida's yield, at 33.9 tons per acre, is down 3.5 tons from last month and 2.2 tons from the previous year. Harvested area, at 400,000 acres, is down 3,000 acres from last month but up 7,000 acres from 2007. Florida's estimates for acreage, yield, and production were reduced due to freeze damage suffered in January and February. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas are carried forward from January. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.08 million pounds for January 2009, down 25 percent from December and down 28 percent from a year ago. Total crop area for January is estimated at 2,290 acres, down 5 percent from December but up 12 percent from January 2008. Harvested area totaled 1,340 acres, down 9 percent from the previous month and 6 percent lower than January 2008. Wet weather and cool temperatures continued into early January. Recovery was slow for plantings exposed to the heavy December rains, and growers were concerned about controlling fungal disease after weeks of wet weather. Intermittent clear days allowed usual field maintenance and schedules to resume. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2008-09 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.36 million tons, unchanged from the February 1 forecast but 13 percent lower than 2007-08 final utilization of 1.57 million tons. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes (978,000 tons), unchanged from the February forecast but 14 percent below last season. The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 7.00 million boxes (298,000 tons), unchanged from February but down 22 percent from 2007-08 final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), is unchanged from the February 1 forecast but 9 percent lower than last season. Although considered final in January, an additional monthly size and drop survey was conducted in February for both white and colored varieties. Results showed that very little growth occurred in white grapefruit, with fruit size still measuring slightly above average. As of March 1, approximately 42 percent of the crop had been harvested. Average fruit size for the colored variety continued to closely follow the average of the past eight non-hurricane seasons, and the final drop rate continued to measure near average. Arizona, California, and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward from the January forecast. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.20 million boxes (54,000 tons), down 8 percent from the February 1 forecast and 20 percent lower than last season's final production. As of March 1, approximately 68 percent of the crop had been harvested. Tangerines and Mandarins: The U.S. tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 462,000 tons, down 6 percent from both the February 1 forecast and the 2007-08 season. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.00 million boxes (190,000 tons), down 13 percent from the February forecast and down 27 percent from 2007-08 final utilization. The Honey tangerine variety, which accounts for more than 40 percent of Florida's total tangerine production, suffered considerable damage from the freezing temperatures of late-January and early-February. The freeze stunted fruit growth and a significant amount of fruit in the southernmost citrus counties was unable to maintain the quality necessary for the fresh markets. Honey variety fruit continued to measure below average in size and above average in drop. Harvest of the early Fallglo variety was complete for the season and the Sunburst harvest was nearing completion. Arizona and California tangerine and mandarin production forecasts are carried forward from the January forecast. Florida Citrus: Freezing temperatures returned to the State on February 5 as early morning lows dropped into the mid-20's in Arcadia and Palmdale and temperatures in the southernmost areas of the State dropped just below freezing. Some citrus growers increased irrigation to lessen the impact of the freezing temperatures to their citrus crop, while others took advantage of relaxed truck load weight restrictions and harvested their fruit. Temperatures returned to more seasonal levels the following weekend, and by mid-month, daily highs were in the low to mid-80's in all areas. With warmer afternoon temperatures, many trees began sprouting new shoots and leafing out. No significant rainfall was received during February so abnormally dry conditions continued in all citrus producing areas. Fieldwork during the month included hedging, topping, irrigating, fertilizing, aerial spraying, and mowing. Early and midseason oranges continued to be harvested and processed. Grapefruit was harvested and tangerines and tangelos were picked in small quantities each week. California Citrus: Despite the receipt of needed rainfall during February, drought conditions and forecasted reductions in water deliveries remained a concern for citrus growers. Wet conditions hampered citrus harvest activities at times, but harvest continued for lemons, Murcott tangerines, Minneola tangelos, navel, Moro and Cara Cara oranges, and Pummelo and Melo Gold grapefruit. Overall, fruit size and color were good, but some navels showed drying due to over-maturity. Picking of Valencia oranges was expected to begin soon in parts of Kern County. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Needed rain was received during February but the continuous rainfall in the northern two-thirds of the State did not significantly reduce forecasted drought conditions for later in the year. Water rationing continued to be implemented in many locations. Orchard site preparation such as pruning, spraying, and tree planting was winding down. Grape pruning and tying continued. Early variety nectarine and apricot trees began to bloom and other stone fruit varieties were pushing buds. Kiwifruit harvest continued and spring strawberries were growing well. Raspberry and strawberry nursery stock digging was complete. Bee hives were placed in cherry and almond orchards to assist in pollination but wet weather conditions slowed bee activity. Almond trees were in full bloom. Pruning, tree planting, and disking continued in almond, walnut, and pistachio orchards. Bloom was expected to progress slowly given the wet and cold weather conditions. Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 2.6 percent. However, if you exclude the 5 abnormal production seasons (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 2.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 2.6 percent, or 2.0 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.4 percent, or 3.5 percent when excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 215,000 tons (203,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 520,000 tons (18,000 tons to 503,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 6 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Lance Honig, Chief.............................................(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Jacqueline Moore, Head.........................................(202) 720-2127 Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye......................................(202) 720-8068 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings........................(202) 720-5944 Don Gephart - Hay, Oats, Sorghum...............................(202) 690-3234 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed.......................(202) 720-9526 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops..............(202) 720-7621 Anthony Prillaman - Peanuts, Rice..............................(202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds...........(202) 720-7369 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head......................................(202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco.........(202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries...........................................(202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes.........................................................(202) 720-4288 Mike Jacobson - Cranberries....................................(202) 720-9085 Dawn Keen - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts...................(202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas.....................................(202) 720-3250 Suzanne Avilla - Citrus, Coffee, Tropical Fruits...............(202) 720-5412 Faye Propsom - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes.............(202) 720-4285 Kim Ritchie - Hops.............................................(360) 902-1940 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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