Cr Pr 2-2 (4-09) Crop Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 9, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. All Orange Production Up 1 Percent from March The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2008-09 season is 9.16 million tons, up 1 percent from the March 1 forecast but 9 percent lower than the 2007-08 final utilization of 10.1 million tons. The Florida all orange forecast, at 158 million boxes (7.09 million tons), is relatively unchanged from the previous forecast but down 7 percent from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 84.6 million boxes (3.81 million tons), down slightly from the March forecast but up 1 percent from last season. The Florida Valencia forecast, at 73.0 million boxes (3.29 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but 16 percent less than the 2007-08 crop. The row count survey conducted at the end of March showed over 98 percent of the early, midseason, and navel rows harvested. Weekly utilization declined sharply the last two weeks of the month indicating harvest was near completion. For the Valencia crop, objective survey measurements taken during March indicated a slightly above average rate of fruit drop and a smaller than average fruit size. The row count survey showed that only 19 percent of the Valencia rows had been picked but harvest was increasing rapidly. The California all orange forecast is 53.0 million boxes (1.99 million tons), up 7 percent from the previous forecast but down 15 percent from last season. The California navel orange utilization is forecast at 38.0 million boxes (1.43 million tons), up 10 percent from the January forecast but down 16 percent from last season. The Valencia orange forecast in California is forecast at 15.0 million boxes (563,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 6 percent from last season's final utilization. Harvest of navel oranges continued during March and Valencia orange harvest got underway. Fruit size and quality were reported as good but the fruit set per tree was lighter than average for both varieties. The Texas all orange forecast is 1.70 million boxes (72,000 thousand tons), up 3 percent from the January 1 forecast but down 2 percent from 2007-08. The Arizona all orange forecast is 300,000 boxes (12,000 tons), up 20 percent from the previous forecast but down 21 percent from last season. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2008-09 season is 1.64 gallons per box at 42 degrees Brix, unchanged from the March forecast but 2 percent lower than last season's final record yield of 1.67 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is final at a record high 1.60 gallons per box, up 3 percent from last season's final yield of 1.55 gallons per box. The Valencia portion remains at 1.70 gallons per box, 5 percent lower than last year's final yield of 1.79 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on April 9, 2009. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Joseph W. Glauber Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Papayas................................................................5 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit.............................................................4 Lemons.................................................................4 Oranges................................................................4 Tangelos...............................................................4 Tangerines and Mandarins...............................................4 Potatoes and Miscellaneous Crops Potatoes...............................................................5 Crop Comments................................................................13 Crop Summary..................................................................6 Information Contacts.........................................................17 Reliability of Production Data in this Report................................16 Weather Maps.................................................................12 Weather Summary..............................................................13 Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2006-07, 2007-08 and Forecasted April 1, 2009 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :------------------------------------------------------- :2006-07 : 2007-08 : 2008-09 :2006-07 : 2007-08 :2008-09 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :------ 1,000 Boxes 3/ ----- ------ 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 4/ : AZ : 200 230 150 7 9 6 CA : 34,500 45,000 38,000 1,294 1,688 1,425 FL : 65,600 83,500 84,600 2,952 3,757 3,807 TX : 1,600 1,500 1,550 68 64 66 US :101,900 130,230 124,300 4,321 5,518 5,304 Valencia : AZ : 100 150 150 4 6 6 CA : 11,500 17,000 15,000 431 638 563 FL : 63,400 86,700 73,000 2,853 3,902 3,285 TX : 380 234 150 16 10 6 US : 75,380 104,084 88,300 3,304 4,556 3,860 All : AZ : 300 380 300 11 15 12 CA : 46,000 62,000 53,000 1,725 2,326 1,988 FL :129,000 170,200 157,600 5,805 7,659 7,092 TX : 1,980 1,734 1,700 84 74 72 US :177,280 234,314 212,600 7,625 10,074 9,164 Grapefruit : White : FL : 9,300 9,000 7,000 395 383 298 Colored : FL : 17,900 17,600 16,000 761 748 680 All : AZ : 100 100 150 3 3 5 CA : 5,500 5,200 4,400 184 174 147 FL : 27,200 26,600 23,000 1,156 1,131 978 TX : 7,100 6,100 6,200 284 244 248 US : 39,900 38,000 33,750 1,627 1,552 1,378 Tangerines and Mandarins: AZ 5/ : 300 400 250 11 15 9 CA 5/ : 3,500 6,700 6,700 131 251 251 FL : 4,600 5,500 4,000 219 261 190 US : 8,400 12,600 10,950 361 527 450 Lemons : AZ : 2,500 1,500 2,500 95 57 95 CA : 18,500 14,800 19,000 703 562 722 US : 21,000 16,300 21,500 798 619 817 Tangelos : FL : 1,250 1,500 1,200 56 68 54 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ 2007-08 revised. 3/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; tangerines and mandarins-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 4/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX. 5/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group, State, and United States, 2007-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : : Seasonal :---------------------------------: Yield : Production Group : Planted : Harvested : : and :------------------------------------------------------------------ State : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 :2008 :2009 : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- 1,000 Acres -------- --- Cwt -- ----- 1,000 Cwt ---- : Winter : CA : 11.0 9.0 11.0 9.0 230 240 2,258 2,530 2,160 : Spring : AZ : 3.5 4.1 3.5 4.1 300 280 1,120 1,050 1,148 CA : 15.4 16.2 15.4 16.2 450 430 6,123 6,930 6,966 FL : 28.5 29.3 27.9 28.6 285 271 7,807 7,952 7,759 Hastings : 17.4 17.8 17.0 17.4 285 285 4,617 4,845 4,959 Other FL : 11.1 11.5 10.9 11.2 285 250 3,190 3,107 2,800 NC : 14.5 16.0 14.0 15.0 180 200 2,700 2,520 3,000 TX : 8.4 8.8 8.0 8.3 210 235 2,070 1,680 1,951 : Total : 70.3 74.4 68.8 72.2 293 288 19,820 20,132 20,824 : Summer 1/ : AL : 1.3 1.2 170 154 204 CA : 3.6 3.6 360 1,548 1,296 CO : 4.4 4.1 370 945 1,517 DE : 1.7 1.7 250 540 425 IL : 5.5 5.3 395 2,440 2,094 KS : 5.0 4.8 320 1,789 1,536 MD : 2.5 2.5 300 960 750 MO : 7.2 6.5 190 1,980 1,235 NJ : 2.0 2.0 230 636 460 TX : 8.0 7.4 395 3,871 2,923 VA : 5.8 5.7 220 1,134 1,254 : Total : 47.0 44.8 306 15,997 13,694 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2008 revised. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Jan : 2,040 2,290 1,430 1,340 2,880 2,080 Feb : 2,040 2,330 1,430 1,400 2,645 2,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2008-2009 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,234.0 3,953.0 3,767.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 85,982.0 84,986.0 78,640.0 Corn for Silage : 5,965.0 Hay, All : 60,062.0 60,297.0 Alfalfa : 20,980.0 All Other : 39,082.0 Oats : 3,217.0 3,400.0 1,395.0 Proso Millet : 520.0 460.0 Rice : 2,995.0 3,183.0 2,976.0 Rye : 1,260.0 269.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 8,284.0 6,960.0 7,271.0 Sorghum for Silage : 408.0 Wheat, All : 63,147.0 58,638.0 55,685.0 Winter : 46,281.0 42,889.0 39,614.0 Durum : 2,731.0 2,445.0 2,584.0 Other Spring : 14,135.0 13,304.0 13,487.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,011.0 857.3 989.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 354.0 386.0 340.0 Mustard Seed : 79.5 71.5 Peanuts : 1,534.0 1,124.0 1,507.0 Rapeseed : 0.2 0.2 Safflower : 202.0 195.0 Soybeans for Beans : 75,718.0 76,024.0 74,641.0 Sunflower : 2,516.5 2,069.5 2,396.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 9,470.0 8,811.5 7,728.4 Upland : 9,296.0 8,668.0 7,559.0 Amer-Pima : 174.0 143.5 169.4 Sugarbeets : 1,090.8 1,151.6 1,004.6 Sugarcane : 868.5 Tobacco : 354.2 353.2 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 17.5 19.0 8.0 Dry Edible Beans : 1,495.0 1,546.1 1,445.2 Dry Edible Peas : 882.5 966.0 847.3 Lentils : 271.0 375.0 263.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 Hops : 40.9 Peppermint Oil : 60.0 Potatoes, All : 1,058.8 1,045.7 Winter : 11.0 9.0 11.0 9.0 Spring : 70.3 74.4 68.8 72.2 Summer : 47.0 44.8 Fall : 930.5 921.1 Spearmint Oil : 20.4 Sweet Potatoes : 102.9 101.9 97.0 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2008-2009 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ 1,000 ------ : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 63.6 239,498 Corn for Grain :" : 153.9 12,101,238 Corn for Silage :Tons : 18.7 111,619 Hay, All :" : 2.43 145,672 Alfalfa :" : 3.32 69,620 All Other :" : 1.95 76,052 Oats :Bu : 63.5 88,635 Proso Millet :" : 32.3 14,880 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 6,846 203,733 Rye :Bu : 29.7 7,979 Sorghum for Grain :" : 65.0 472,342 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 13.8 5,646 Wheat, All :Bu : 44.9 2,499,524 Winter :" : 47.2 1,867,903 Durum :" : 32.8 84,877 Other Spring :" : 40.5 546,744 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,461 1,445,064 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 4,429.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 16.8 5,716 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 577 41,255 Peanuts :" : 3,416 5,147,900 Rapeseed :" : 1,500 300 Safflower :" : 1,592 310,433 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 39.6 2,959,174 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,429 3,422,840 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 810 13,035.6 Upland 2/ :" : 799 12,589.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,265 446.6 Sugarbeets :Tons : 26.7 26,820 Sugarcane :" : 33.0 28,636 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,260 800,527 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,300 104 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,768 25,558 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,448 12,270 Lentils 2/ :" : 917 2,411 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 580 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,160 7,300 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 30,000 1,800 Hops :" : 1,971 80,630.1 Peppermint Oil :" : 92 5,499 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 395 412,742 Winter :" : 230 240 2,530 2,160 Spring :" : 293 288 20,132 20,824 Summer :" : 306 13,694 Fall :" : 409 376,386 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 118 2,399 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 189 18,345 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2008-2009 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,713,460 1,599,740 1,524,470 Corn for Grain 2/ :34,796,060 34,392,980 31,824,820 Corn for Silage : 2,413,980 Hay, All 3/ : 24,306,490 24,401,590 Alfalfa : 8,490,400 All Other : 15,816,090 Oats : 1,301,890 1,375,950 564,540 Proso Millet : 210,440 186,160 Rice : 1,212,050 1,288,130 1,204,360 Rye : 509,910 108,860 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,352,450 2,816,640 2,942,500 Sorghum for Silage : 165,110 Wheat, All 3/ :25,554,960 23,730,210 22,535,160 Winter :18,729,460 17,356,750 16,031,390 Durum : 1,105,210 989,470 1,045,720 Other Spring : 5,720,290 5,384,000 5,458,050 : Oilseeds : Canola : 409,140 346,940 400,240 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 143,260 156,210 137,590 Mustard Seed : 32,170 28,940 Peanuts : 620,790 454,870 609,870 Rapeseed : 80 80 Safflower : 81,750 78,910 Soybeans for Beans :30,642,320 30,766,150 30,206,470 Sunflower : 1,018,400 837,510 969,640 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 3,832,410 3,565,930 3,127,610 Upland : 3,762,000 3,507,850 3,059,050 Amer-Pima : 70,420 58,070 68,550 Sugarbeets : 441,440 466,040 406,550 Sugarcane : 351,470 Tobacco : 143,340 142,940 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 7,080 7,690 3,240 Dry Edible Beans : 605,010 625,690 584,860 Dry Edible Peas : 357,140 390,930 342,890 Lentils : 109,670 151,760 106,430 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 Ginger Root (HI) : 20 Hops : 16,550 Peppermint Oil : 24,280 Potatoes, All 3/ : 428,490 423,180 Winter : 4,450 3,640 4,450 3,640 Spring : 28,450 30,110 27,840 29,220 Summer : 19,020 18,130 Fall : 376,560 372,760 Spearmint Oil : 8,260 Sweet Potatoes : 41,640 41,240 39,250 Taro (HI) 5/ : 160 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2008-2009 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.42 5,214,450 Corn for Grain : 9.66 307,385,600 Corn for Silage : 41.95 101,259,050 Hay, All 2/ : 5.44 132,151,420 Alfalfa : 7.44 63,158,200 All Other : 4.36 68,993,210 Oats : 2.28 1,286,530 Proso Millet : 1.81 337,470 Rice : 7.67 9,241,170 Rye : 1.86 202,680 Sorghum for Grain : 4.08 11,998,040 Sorghum for Silage : 31.02 5,121,970 Wheat, All 2/ : 3.02 68,025,900 Winter : 3.17 50,835,990 Durum : 2.21 2,309,970 Other Spring : 2.73 14,879,930 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.64 655,470 Cottonseed 3/ : 4,017,920 Flaxseed : 1.06 145,190 Mustard Seed : 0.65 18,710 Peanuts : 3.83 2,335,050 Rapeseed : 1.68 140 Safflower : 1.78 140,810 Soybeans for Beans : 2.67 80,535,520 Sunflower : 1.60 1,552,570 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.91 2,838,170 Upland : 0.90 2,740,930 Amer-Pima : 1.42 97,240 Sugarbeets : 59.85 24,330,690 Sugarcane : 73.91 25,978,140 Tobacco : 2.53 363,110 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.46 4,720 Dry Edible Beans : 1.98 1,159,290 Dry Edible Peas : 1.62 556,560 Lentils : 1.03 109,360 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 26,310 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.30 3,310 Ginger Root (HI) : 33.63 820 Hops : 2.21 36,570 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 2,490 Potatoes, All 2/ : 44.24 18,721,660 Winter : 25.78 26.90 114,760 97,980 Spring : 32.80 32.33 913,170 944,560 Summer : 34.26 621,150 Fall : 45.80 17,072,580 Spearmint Oil : 0.13 1,090 Sweet Potatoes : 21.20 832,120 Taro (HI) 3/ : 2,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Summary: Production, United States, 2007-2009 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :----------------------------------------- : : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit :Tons : 1,627 1,552 1,378 Lemons :" : 798 619 817 Oranges :" : 7,625 10,075 9,164 Tangelos (FL) :" : 56 68 54 Tangerines and Mandarins :" : 361 527 450 : : Noncitrus : : Apples :1,000 Lbs: 9,089.4 10,035.2 Apricots :Tons : 88.5 81.5 Bananas (HI) :Lbs : 25,600.0 22,800.0 Grapes :Tons : 7,037.3 7,434.9 Olives (CA) :" : 132.5 66.8 Papayas (HI) :Lbs : 33,400.0 33,100.0 Peaches :Tons : 1,127.2 1,121.9 Pears :" : 873.0 818.5 Prunes, Dried (CA) :" : 83.0 126.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) :" : 12.1 15.6 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled) :Lbs : 1,390,000 1,550,000 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) :Tons : 37.0 32.0 Pecans (in-shell) :Lbs : 387,305 191,080 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) :Tons : 328.0 375.0 Maple Syrup :Gals : 1,517 1,635 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2008-09 season. 2/ Production years are 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2008-09. Fruits and Nuts Summary: Production, United States, 2007-2009 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :-------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,475,990 1,407,950 1,250,100 Lemons : 723,930 561,550 741,170 Oranges : 6,917,280 9,139,890 8,313,440 Tangelos (FL) : 50,800 61,690 48,990 Tangerines and Mandarins : 327,490 478,090 408,230 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,122,880 4,551,890 Apricots : 80,250 73,940 Bananas (HI) : 11,610 10,340 Grapes : 6,384,090 6,744,840 Olives (CA) : 120,200 60,600 Papayas (HI) : 15,150 15,010 Peaches : 1,022,530 1,017,780 Pears : 791,930 742,490 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 75,300 114,310 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 10,980 14,150 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 630,490 703,070 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) : 33,570 29,030 Pecans (in-shell) : 175,680 86,670 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) : 297,560 340,190 Maple Syrup : 7,580 8,170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2008-09 season. 2/ Production years are 2006-07, 2007-08, and 2008-09. March Weather Summary Following the Nation's driest start to a year on record in January and February, a stormier weather pattern developed during March. Rain storms stretched from central Texas into the Southeast, excluding Florida's peninsula. Rain slowed Southern planting, following a quick start to spring fieldwork, but eased or eradicated drought. In Florida, however, mostly dry weather maintained heavy irrigation demand for citrus and vegetables. Farther north, wet weather also prevailed in parts of Midwest, although relatively drier conditions in a few areas, including the Ohio Valley, allowed producers to begin some fieldwork operations. Especially wet weather was observed in the far upper Midwest and from the lower Missouri Valley into the lower Great Lakes region. Extensive lowland flooding affected several areas, such as northern Indiana and the Red River Valley of Minnesota and North Dakota. The Red River Valley was part of a larger wet area covering the north-central U.S. A record setting Red River crest reached Fargo, North Dakota, on March 28, following a mid-month thaw and subsequent major spring storm. Across the southern half of the Plains, drought-stressed winter wheat benefited from the moisture associated with a significant late-season snow storm from March 26-28, but was threatened by cold weather that followed in late March. Elsewhere, cold, stormy weather in the Northwest contrasted with generally warm, dry conditions in the Southwest. In California, where water-supply prospects improved slightly with another round of storminess in early March, late-season precipitation was insufficient to prevent the completion of a third consecutive year of drought. March Agricultural Summary Strong storm systems throughout March brought a tremendous amount of precipitation to areas in the Delta and Southeast. Locations in southern Mississippi and Alabama received more than 14 inches of rainfall, with Geneva County in Alabama recording over 16 inches, causing localized flooding and slowing spring fieldwork. Eastern North Dakota and most of Minnesota accumulated monthly precipitation totals of up to 6 inches, or 400 percent of normal. During the last week of March, heavy rainfall and melting snow caused extensive flooding in North Dakota, where the Red River crested at 40.82 feet, breaking the 112 year-old record of 40.10 feet set in 1897 and potentially affecting the United States sugarbeet crop by severely delaying planting. In stark contrast, the Southwest, southern Nebraska, northern Kansas, and the Trans-Pecos region of Texas received less than 2 percent of normal precipitation during March. The lack of available soil moisture prompted Texas wheat producers to irrigate and hard-packed soils limited field cultivation for cotton producers. In addition to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the southern Corn Belt and northern Atlantic Coast received monthly precipitation totaling between 1 and 4 inches, or 25 to 75 percent of normal. Average temperatures during the month were below normal along the Atlantic Coast and across much of the northern and western regions of the country. In North Dakota, temperatures were recorded between 15 and 30 degrees Fahrenheit, more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit below average. Warmer weather prevailed in the Southwest, western Texas, and the Corn Belt, where temperatures were as many as 8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2008-09 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.38 million tons, up 1 percent from the March 1 forecast but 11 percent lower than 2007-08 final utilization of 1.55 million tons. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 23.0 million boxes (978,000 tons), unchanged from the March forecast but 14 percent below last season. The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 7.00 million boxes (298,000 tons), unchanged from March but down 22 percent from 2007-08 final utilization. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 16.0 million boxes (680,000 tons), is unchanged from the March 1 forecast but 9 percent lower than last season. With the lack of rainfall over the past several months, growers and caretakers were irrigating regularly to keep the trees and fruit in good condition. Field personnel reported a uniform bloom and a fully expanded flush on grapefruit. Approximately 81 percent of the rows observed in March in the row count survey were harvested. The majority of the survey rows were located in the Indian River District, where over 75 percent had been harvested. The Texas grapefruit forecast, at 6.20 million boxes (248,000 tons) is up 9 percent from the January forecast and up 2 percent from the previous season. California's grapefruit production forecast is 4.40 million boxes (147,000 tons), down 2 percent from the January forecast and 15 percent lower than last season. Harvest of the Desert Rio Red variety continued and small sizes were reported. Arizona's grapefruit production forecast is 150,000 boxes (5,000 tons), unchanged from January but up 50 percent from the 2007-08 final utilization. Tangerines and Mandarins: The U.S. tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 450,000 tons, down 3 percent from the March 1 forecast and 15 percent lower than the 2007-08 season. California's tangerine and mandarin forecast is 6.70 million boxes (251,000 tons), up 18 percent from the January forecast but unchanged from last season's final utilization. W. Murcott and Fairchild mandarin harvest ended in March while Shasta Gold, Royal, Pixie, and Honey mandarin harvesting continued. An early season frost coupled with freezing temperatures in mid-March caused scattered freeze damage. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.00 million boxes (190,000 tons), unchanged from the March forecast but down 27 percent from 2007-08 final utilization. Harvest of the Honey tangerine variety continued. The row count survey conducted at the end of March showed that over 86 percent of the Honey variety rows visited had already been harvested. The majority of fruit had been harvested for the fresh market. Arizona's tangerine and mandarin forecast is 250,000 boxes (9,000 tons), unchanged from the January forecast but down 38 percent from last season. Lemons: The forecast for the 2008-09 U.S. lemon crop is 817,000 tons, unchanged from the January 1 forecast but up 32 percent from 2007-08. California's production is forecast at 19.0 million boxes (722,000 tons), unchanged from January but up 28 percent from last season. Fruit size of California lemons was small but fruit quality was good. Freezing temperatures in March were a concern for growers in some areas, forcing them to use wind machines and irrigation to raise temperatures in unharvested groves. The production forecast for Arizona is 2.50 million boxes (95,000 tons), up 67 percent from the previous crop year but unchanged from the January forecast. Fruit size and quality were reported as good. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.20 million boxes (54,000 tons), unchanged from the March 1 forecast but 20 percent lower than last season's final production. Tangelo harvest was relatively complete for the season. Florida Citrus: A cold front moved across the State in early March bringing freezing temperatures to many locations but causing no damage to the citrus crop. A gradual warming trend followed almost immediately, raising temperatures to the low-50's at night and high-80's during the day. Warm, seasonal temperatures continued the remainder of the month. Many areas, especially in the south, have received very little appreciable precipitation in the past three months and are experiencing severe drought conditions. Growers and caretakers were irrigating regularly in an attempt to keep the trees and fruit in good condition. Other grove activities included fertilizing, hedging, topping, aerial spraying, and mowing. Trees were recovering well from the January and February freezes. Field personnel observed widespread spring citrus bloom and a fully expanded flush by the end of the month. Several packinghouses reported that they had finished or were planning to finish packing Honey tangerines within the next couple weeks. Early and midseason orange harvesting was relatively complete for the season. Valencia orange harvesting picked up steadily the last half of the month but ratios of sugar solids to acid continued to be reported as low and inconsistent. Grapefruit harvesting slowed to under a million boxes weekly, with the majority of white grapefruit being processed and almost equal amounts of red grapefruit going to processing and fresh. Arizona Citrus: Tangerines, lemons, and grapefruit continued to be harvested during March, while the navel orange harvest ended. It was reported that some of the grapefruit crop may not be harvested due to lack of a market. Fruit size and quality were reported as good for lemons and excellent for tangerines and mandarins. Texas Citrus: Many citrus groves continued to recover from damage suffered from Hurricane Dolly, which made landfall in southern Texas in July. Harvesting of oranges and grapefruit continued during March. Fruit was reported to be of very good quality and size overall. California Citrus: Valencia orange harvest began in early March, while picking of Washington, Nucellar, and Atwood navel oranges continued. Harvest progressed for lemons, Minneola and W. Murcott mandarins, and Pummelo, Oro Blanco, and Melo Gold grapefruit. Cold temperatures early and late in the month forced growers in the San Joaquin Valley to use wind machines and irrigation to keep temperatures above freezing in unharvested groves. Some mandarin orchards in the San Joaquin Valley were covered with nets to discourage cross pollination. New growth and buds were apparent on citrus trees but bloom had not yet arrived. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Freezing temperatures the second week of March resulted in reports of scattered freeze damage to tree fruit crops in the San Joaquin Valley. Many growers, however, were still assessing the damage, primarily in kiwifruit and grape vineyards. Spraying and cane tying wrapped up in grape vineyards during March and irrigation and site preparation began. Grape buds began to swell and bloom commenced in apple, apricot, peach, cherry, nectarine, pluot, prune, and pear orchards. Wet weather conditions in northern areas of the State prompted growers to begin fungicide treatments for bloom protection. In the Sacramento Valley, Cling peach bloom was complete, trees were leafing out, and growers began mowing orchard center rows. Persimmon trees also started leafing out. Blight treatments were applied in peach orchards and weed control treatments continued in peach and prune orchards. Lack of significant rainfall in the San Joaquin Valley during the month forced farmers to begin irrigation practices for most tree crops. Kiwifruit vines began leafing out but blossoms had not yet developed. Spring strawberries and blueberries were blooming. Olive orchard maintenance continued. Pre-planting fumigation continued in new almond and walnut orchards. Cool temperatures extended the almond bloom in parts of the Sacramento Valley, but in the San Joaquin Valley, petal fall was nearly complete and trees began leafing out. Early mite damage to almonds was reported, primarily in areas of the San Joaquin Valley where last year's water restrictions increased tree susceptibility to water stress. Damage to almonds from the early March freeze had not yet been quantified. Walnut orchards were fertilized, irrigated, and treated for blight. Pollen sacks continued to develop on male pistachio trees and female pistachio trees were blooming. Winter Potatoes: California winter potato production for 2009 is estimated at 2.16 million cwt, up 14 percent from January's forecast but down 15 percent from 2008. Harvested area in California is forecast at 9,000 acres, down 18 percent from 2008. Yield is estimated at 240 cwt per acre, 30 cwt more than expected in January and 10 cwt higher than last year. California winter potato harvest was completed in March. Spring Potatoes: Production for 2009 is forecast at 20.8 million cwt, up 3 percent from 2008 and 5 percent above 2007. Area for harvest is forecast at 72,200 acres, 5 percent more than 2008 and up 3 percent from 2007. The average yield of 288 cwt per acre is down 5 cwt from 2008 but 6 cwt higher than 2007. Florida production is estimated at 7.76 million cwt, down 1 percent from 2008 and 2 percent lower than the 2007 production. Freezing temperatures during January damaged potato vines, which reduced yields. California spring potato production is forecast at 6.97 million cwt, up 1 percent from last year. Although average yield is forecast to decrease 35 cwt from last year, the increase in planted acres was enough to increase total production. Production in Texas is forecast to increase 16 percent from 2008 due to increases in both harvested area and average yield. Growers in North Carolina are expected to produce 19 percent more spring potatoes than the previous year and production in Arizona is forecast to increase 9 percent from last year. Summer Potatoes: The final estimate of 2008 summer potato crop production is 13.7 million cwt, up 1 percent from the preliminary estimate in the January Crop Production 2008 Summary but down 14 percent from the 2007 crop. Harvested area covered 44,800 acres, up 2 percent from the 2008 preliminary estimate but down 7 percent from 2007. The average yield of 306 cwt per acre is down 3 cwt from the 2008 preliminary estimate and 25 cwt below the 2007 crop. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.30 million pounds for February 2009, up 11 percent from January but down 13 percent from a year ago. Total crop area for February is estimated at 2,330 acres, up 2 percent from January and 14 percent above February 2008. Harvested area totaled 1,400 acres, up 4 percent from the previous month but 2 percent lower than last year. Wet weather and cool temperatures continued into February, along with variable trade winds. The soggy conditions resulted in disease outbreaks and root rot problems, especially in poorly drained soils, which negatively affected fruit quality. Despite the rainy weather and wet field conditions, growers tried to keep up with disease control efforts and usual field maintenance. Planting of new fields was underway. Newly planted seedlings benefited from the additional soil moisture. Reliability of April 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which, when combined with the previous components, are used to develop the current forecast of production. Arizona, California, and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These 4 States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 2.2 percent. However, if you exclude the 5 abnormal production seasons (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 1.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 2.2 percent, or 1.8 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.9 percent, or 3.1 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 171,000 tons (164,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 7,000 tons to 508,000 tons (7,000 tons to 368,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 5 times and above 10 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Lance Honig, Chief............................................................(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Jacqueline Moore, Head........................................................(202) 720-2127 Todd Ballard - Wheat, Rye.....................................................(202) 720-8068 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings.......................................(202) 720-5944 Jacqueline Moore - Hay, Oats, Sorghum.........................................(202) 720-2127 Ty Kalaus - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed......................................(202) 720-9526 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops.............................(202) 720-7621 Anthony Prillaman - Peanuts, Rice.............................................(202) 720-7688 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds..........................(202) 720-7369 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head.....................................................(202) 720-2127 Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco........................(202) 720-7235 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.........................................(202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes..........................................................(202) 720-4288 Mike Jacobson - Cranberries...................................................(202) 720-9085 Dawn Keen - Floriculture, Nursery, Tree Nuts..................................(202) 720-4215 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas...............................................(202) 720-3250 Suzanne Avilla - Citrus, Coffee, Tropical Fruits..............................(202) 720-5412 Faye Propsom - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes............................(202) 720-4285 Kim Ritchie - Hops............................................................(360) 902-1940 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge. For free access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.nass.usda.gov. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at www.nass.usda.gov, under the right navigation, Receive reports by Email, click on National or State. Follow the instructions on the screen. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.