Cr Pr 2-2 (10-09) Crop Production Washington, D.C. Released October 9, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Corn Production Up Slightly from September Forecast Soybean Production Up Fractionally Cotton Production Down 3 Percent Orange Production Down 10 Percent from Last Season Corn production is forecast at 13.0 billion bushels, up slightly from last month and 8 percent higher than 2008. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 164.2 bushels per acre, up 2.3 bushels from September and 10.3 bushels above last year. If realized, this yield will be the highest on record and total production will be second only to the record set in 2007. Yield forecasts remained unchanged or increased from last month across the Corn Belt, Great Plains, and Ohio Valley where warm, dry weather during much of September helped push the late-developing corn crop towards maturity. Light frost was reported in parts of the northern tier of the Great Plains and Corn Belt in late September. However, temperatures were not considered low enough to terminate crop growth. Based on administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States and farmers now expect to harvest 79.3 million acres for grain, down 1 percent from the September forecast but 1 percent above 2008. Soybean production is forecast at a record high 3.25 billion bushels, up slightly from the September forecast and up 10 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 42.4 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last month and up 2.7 bushels from 2008. If realized, this will be the third highest yield on record. Compared with last month, yields are forecast higher or unchanged in all States except Michigan, Mississippi, Ohio, and New York. The largest decrease in yield from the September forecast is expected in Mississippi where persistent rain during the last two weeks of the month increased the potential impact of disease. Increases of 2 bushels are expected in Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Virginia. If realized, the forecasted yield in Alabama, Georgia, and Nebraska will be a record high and the forecasted yield in Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania will tie the previous record high. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 76.6 million acres, down slightly from the previous estimate but up 3 percent from 2008. All Cotton production is forecast at 13.0 million 480-pound bales, down 3 percent from last month but up 1 percent from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 12.6 million 480-pound bales, down 3 percent from last month but up 2 percent from last year. Producers in the Delta region are expecting decreased yield due to excessive amounts of rainfall received during September. Upland growers in Alabama and Georgia are expecting record high yields. The American-Pima production forecast, at 367,000 bales, was carried forward from the August 2009 forecast. The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2009-10 season is 8.25 million tons, down 10 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization and 18 percent lower than the 2007-08 final utilization of 10.1 million tons. The Florida all orange forecast, at 136 million boxes (6.12 million tons), is down 16 percent from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 69.0 million boxes (3.11 million tons), 18 percent lower than last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 67.0 million boxes (3.02 million tons), is down 14 percent from the 2008-09 crop. Weather conditions in Florida's citrus growing regions during early 2009 were characterized by a series of cold fronts, freezing temperatures, and below average rainfall. The drought conditions continued into May, resulting in a 19 percent decrease in average fruit per tree from last season. All orange production in California is forecast at 55.0 million boxes (2.06 million tons), up 13 percent from last season's crop. Navel oranges are forecast at 40.0 million boxes (1.50 million tons), a 16 percent increase from last season. The California Valencia forecast, at 15.0 million boxes (563,000 tons), is up 7 percent from the 2008-09 crop. The navel orange crop continued to develop well in both size and quality. Harvest is expected to begin in late-October. The 2008-09 California Valencia harvest remained underway but was nearing completion. In Texas, orange production is forecast at 1.45 million boxes (62,000 tons), down 1 percent from last season's final utilization. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2009-10 season is 1.63 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 2 percent from last season's final yield of 1.66 gallons per box. Projected yield from the 2009-10 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on October 9, 2009. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Joseph W. Glauber Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested Updates............................................4 Grains & Hay Corn for Grain.........................................................................6 Ears per Acre......................................................................30 Hay, Alfalfa..........................................................................14 Hay, Other............................................................................15 Rice...................................................................................8 Rice, by Class......................................................................8 Sorghum for Grain......................................................................7 Oilseeds Canola................................................................................11 Peanuts...............................................................................11 Soybeans...............................................................................9 Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet.................................................31 Sunflower.............................................................................10 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton................................................................................12 Cumulative Bolls Counts............................................................32 Cottonseed............................................................................13 Sugarbeets............................................................................16 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed..........................................................16 Tobacco...............................................................................18 Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Dry Edible Beans.......................................................................17 Noncitrus Fruits & Tree Nuts Apples................................................................................21 Grapes................................................................................23 Papayas...............................................................................23 Prunes................................................................................23 Pecans................................................................................22 Citrus Grapefruit............................................................................20 Lemons................................................................................20 Oranges...............................................................................20 Tangelos..............................................................................20 Tangerines............................................................................20 Potatoes & Miscellaneous Crops Potatoes..............................................................................18 Crop Comments.................................................................................36 Crop Summary..................................................................................24 Information Contacts..........................................................................46 Reliability of Production Data in this Report.................................................44 Weather Maps..................................................................................33 Weather Summary...............................................................................34 Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2009 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Corn : Sorghum : Soybeans State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- :Planted 1/: Harvested :Planted 1/: Harvested :Planted 1/: Harvested ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : AL : 280 260 440 430 AZ : 45 10 35 10 AR : 430 410 40 35 3,420 3,370 CA : 550 125 CO : 1,100 950 170 110 CT : 26 DE : 170 160 185 183 FL : 70 37 36 33 GA : 420 350 55 40 470 450 ID : 290 80 IL : 12,000 11,800 40 38 9,400 9,350 IN : 5,600 5,440 5,450 5,430 IA : 13,700 13,350 9,600 9,530 KS : 4,100 3,870 2,700 2,500 3,700 3,650 KY : 1,220 1,130 1,430 1,410 LA : 630 620 70 67 1,020 970 ME : 28 MD : 460 400 485 475 MA : 18 MI : 2,300 1,990 2,000 1,990 MN : 7,600 7,100 7,200 7,100 MS : 730 710 13 12 2,170 2,140 MO : 3,000 2,900 50 45 5,350 5,300 MT : 75 30 NE : 9,150 8,900 250 140 4,800 4,750 NV : 6 NH : 15 NJ : 80 69 89 87 NM : 140 60 80 49 NY : 1,070 600 255 252 NC : 860 800 1,800 1,760 ND : 1,950 1,750 3,900 3,850 OH : 3,350 3,120 4,600 4,580 OK : 390 330 250 210 405 370 OR : 60 33 PA : 1,350 880 450 445 RI : 2 SC : 325 295 570 560 SD : 5,000 4,600 170 125 4,250 4,200 TN : 670 590 1,570 1,530 TX : 2,350 2,100 2,700 2,300 215 195 UT : 65 21 VT : 91 VA : 480 355 590 580 WA : 170 90 WV : 45 29 20 19 WI : 3,800 2,900 1,640 1,630 WY : 90 50 : US : 86,351 79,294 6,623 5,681 77,510 76,619 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from previous report. Selected Crops: Area Planted and Harvested by State and United States, 2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Canola : Sunflower : : :----------------------------------------------------- : : : Oil : Non-Oil : All :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State :Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested:Planted:Harvested -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : CA : 37.0 36.0 8.0 8.0 45.0 44.0 CO : 70.0 64.0 21.0 19.0 91.0 83.0 ID : 15.5 15.0 KS : 150.0 140.0 18.0 17.0 168.0 157.0 MN : 13.0 12.0 45.0 43.0 26.0 24.0 71.0 67.0 MT : 6.5 6.2 NE : 27.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 52.0 50.0 ND : 730.0 715.0 770.0 740.0 115.0 110.0 885.0 850.0 OK : 45.0 40.0 13.0 12.0 5.0 4.0 18.0 16.0 OR : 4.9 4.4 SD : 520.0 505.0 50.0 47.0 570.0 552.0 TX : 66.0 58.0 66.0 62.0 132.0 120.0 : Oth : Sts 2/: 16.1 14.9 : US : 831.0 807.5 1,698.0 1,624.0 334.0 315.0 2,032.0 1,939.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from previous report. 2/ Other States for Canola include CO, KS, and WA. Corn for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2009 : : : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 :------------------: 2008 : 2009 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Bushels ------- --- 1,000 Bushels --- : AL : 235 260 104.0 108.0 108.0 24,440 28,080 AR : 430 410 155.0 153.0 153.0 66,650 62,730 CA : 170 125 195.0 180.0 180.0 33,150 22,500 CO : 1,080 950 137.0 138.0 140.0 147,960 133,000 DE : 152 160 125.0 145.0 145.0 19,000 23,200 GA : 310 350 140.0 143.0 140.0 43,400 49,000 IL : 11,900 11,800 179.0 179.0 179.0 2,130,100 2,112,200 IN : 5,460 5,440 160.0 163.0 166.0 873,600 903,040 IA : 12,800 13,350 171.0 187.0 188.0 2,188,800 2,509,800 KS : 3,630 3,870 134.0 144.0 145.0 486,420 561,150 KY : 1,120 1,130 136.0 155.0 157.0 152,320 177,410 LA : 510 620 144.0 134.0 132.0 73,440 81,840 MD : 400 400 121.0 138.0 145.0 48,400 58,000 MI : 2,140 1,990 138.0 146.0 144.0 295,320 286,560 MN : 7,200 7,100 164.0 167.0 170.0 1,180,800 1,207,000 MS : 700 710 140.0 137.0 130.0 98,000 92,300 MO : 2,650 2,900 144.0 151.0 151.0 381,600 437,900 NE : 8,550 8,900 163.0 169.0 178.0 1,393,650 1,584,200 NJ : 74 69 116.0 135.0 135.0 8,584 9,315 NY : 640 600 144.0 133.0 132.0 92,160 79,200 NC : 830 800 78.0 110.0 115.0 64,740 92,000 ND : 2,300 1,750 124.0 120.0 123.0 285,200 215,250 OH : 3,120 3,120 135.0 165.0 166.0 421,200 517,920 OK : 320 330 115.0 105.0 110.0 36,800 36,300 PA : 880 880 133.0 144.0 144.0 117,040 126,720 SC : 315 295 65.0 107.0 110.0 20,475 32,450 SD : 4,400 4,600 133.0 147.0 150.0 585,200 690,000 TN : 630 590 118.0 135.0 136.0 74,340 80,240 TX : 2,030 2,100 125.0 125.0 130.0 253,750 273,000 VA : 340 355 108.0 125.0 128.0 36,720 45,440 WA : 90 90 205.0 205.0 205.0 18,450 18,450 WI : 2,880 2,900 137.0 137.0 144.0 394,560 417,600 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 354 350 155.3 154.1 155.0 54,969 54,263 : US : 78,640 79,294 153.9 161.9 164.2 12,101,238 13,018,058 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, FL, ID, MT, NM, OR, UT, WV, and WY. Individual Sta level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2009 Summary." Sorghum for Grain: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2009 : : : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 :-----------------: 2008 : 2009 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ------- Bushels ------- 1,000 Bushels : AR : 115 35 88.0 93.0 93.0 10,120 3,255 CO : 150 110 30.0 32.0 35.0 4,500 3,850 IL : 76 38 103.0 87.0 90.0 7,828 3,420 KS : 2,750 2,500 78.0 82.0 83.0 214,500 207,500 LA : 110 67 87.0 75.0 77.0 9,570 5,159 MS : 82 12 71.0 78.0 74.0 5,822 888 MO : 80 45 97.0 86.0 89.0 7,760 4,005 NE : 210 140 91.0 90.0 90.0 19,110 12,600 NM : 80 49 43.0 41.0 44.0 3,440 2,156 OK : 310 210 45.0 42.0 42.0 13,950 8,820 SD : 115 125 64.0 64.0 66.0 7,360 8,250 TX : 3,050 2,300 52.0 47.0 44.0 158,600 101,200 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 143 50 68.4 53.6 52.4 9,782 2,620 : US : 7,271 5,681 65.0 65.5 64.0 472,342 363,723 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ For 2008, Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, KY, NC, PA, SC, and TN. For 2009, Other States include AZ, and GA. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2009 Summary." Rice: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------- State: : : : 2009 : : : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 :-------------------: 2008 : 2009 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Pounds -------- ---- 1,000 Cwt --- : AR : 1,395 1,475 6,660 6,850 6,850 92,938 101,038 CA : 517 549 8,320 8,300 8,500 43,030 46,665 LA : 464 470 5,830 6,300 6,400 27,037 30,080 MS : 229 238 6,850 7,000 6,800 15,687 16,184 MO : 199 199 6,620 6,800 7,000 13,173 13,930 TX : 172 170 6,900 7,200 7,500 11,868 12,750 : US : 2,976 3,101 6,846 7,051 7,115 203,733 220,647 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rice: Production by Class, United States, 2007-2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : Year : Long Grain : Medium Grain : Short Grain 1/ : All : : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Cwt : 2007 : 143,235 51,063 4,090 198,388 2008 : 153,257 47,166 3,310 203,733 2009 2/ : 154,213 62,979 3,455 220,647 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Sweet rice production included with short grain. 2/ The 2009 rice production by class forecasts are based on class harvested acreage estimates and the 5-year average class yield compared to the all rice yield. Soybeans for Beans: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2009 : : : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 :-------------------: 2008 : 2009 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres -------- Bushels ------- -- 1,000 Bushels -- : AL : 350 430 35.0 37.0 37.0 12,250 15,910 AR : 3,250 3,370 38.0 38.0 39.0 123,500 131,430 DE : 193 183 27.5 36.0 36.0 5,308 6,588 GA : 415 450 31.0 34.0 34.0 12,865 15,300 IL : 9,120 9,350 47.0 44.0 44.0 428,640 411,400 IN : 5,430 5,430 45.0 43.0 43.0 244,350 233,490 IA : 9,670 9,530 46.5 52.0 52.0 449,655 495,560 KS : 3,250 3,650 37.0 40.0 40.0 120,250 146,000 KY : 1,380 1,410 34.5 42.0 44.0 47,610 62,040 LA : 950 970 33.0 35.0 37.0 31,350 35,890 MD : 485 475 30.0 39.0 40.0 14,550 19,000 MI : 1,890 1,990 37.0 38.0 37.0 69,930 73,630 MN : 6,970 7,100 38.0 40.0 40.0 264,860 284,000 MS : 1,960 2,140 40.0 41.0 39.0 78,400 83,460 MO : 5,030 5,300 38.0 42.0 42.0 191,140 222,600 NE : 4,860 4,750 46.5 51.0 52.0 225,990 247,000 NJ : 90 87 30.0 35.0 38.0 2,700 3,306 NY : 226 252 46.0 43.0 42.0 10,396 10,584 NC : 1,670 1,760 33.0 34.0 34.0 55,110 59,840 ND : 3,760 3,850 28.0 30.0 30.0 105,280 115,500 OH : 4,480 4,580 36.0 47.0 46.0 161,280 210,680 OK : 360 370 25.0 26.0 28.0 9,000 10,360 PA : 430 445 40.0 45.0 46.0 17,200 20,470 SC : 530 560 32.0 27.0 27.0 16,960 15,120 SD : 4,060 4,200 34.0 39.0 40.0 138,040 168,000 TN : 1,460 1,530 34.0 40.0 40.0 49,640 61,200 TX : 205 195 24.5 25.0 25.0 5,023 4,875 VA : 570 580 32.0 35.0 37.0 18,240 21,460 WI : 1,590 1,630 35.0 39.0 39.0 55,650 63,570 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 47 52 39.1 33.6 35.6 1,840 1,850 : US : 74,681 76,619 39.7 42.3 42.4 2,967,007 3,250,113 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include FL and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2009 Summary." Sunflower: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2007-2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Varietal : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Type & :------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 1/ : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : Oil : CA 2/ : 36.0 CO : 143.0 64.0 900 110,000 128,700 KS : 205.0 140.0 1,240 210,250 254,200 MN : 73.0 43.0 1,550 140,800 113,150 NE : 43.0 26.0 1,300 40,920 55,900 ND : 930.0 740.0 1,430 1,297,750 1,329,900 OK 2/ : 12.0 SD : 545.0 505.0 1,780 599,060 970,100 TX : 54.0 58.0 1,100 19,140 59,400 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 69.0 1,191 65,665 82,160 : US :2,062.0 1,624.0 1,452 2,483,585 2,993,510 : Non-Oil : CA 2/ : 8.0 CO : 19.0 19.0 1,300 19,500 24,700 KS : 19.0 17.0 1,300 22,080 24,700 MN : 39.0 24.0 1,300 50,700 50,700 NE : 18.0 24.0 1,500 17,550 27,000 ND : 150.0 110.0 1,210 203,200 181,500 OK 2/ : 4.0 SD : 48.0 47.0 1,650 32,000 79,200 TX : 33.0 62.0 1,000 31,200 33,000 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 8.0 1,066 9,055 8,530 : US : 334.0 315.0 1,285 385,285 429,330 : All : CA 2/ : 44.0 1,177 51,800 CO : 162.0 83.0 947 1,361 129,500 153,400 113,000 KS : 224.0 157.0 1,245 1,332 232,330 278,900 209,200 MN : 112.0 67.0 1,463 1,486 191,500 163,850 99,570 NE : 61.0 50.0 1,359 1,340 58,470 82,900 67,000 ND :1,080.0 850.0 1,399 1,557 1,500,950 1,511,400 1,323,400 OK 2/ : 16.0 1,125 18,000 SD : 593.0 552.0 1,769 1,809 631,060 1,049,300 998,300 TX : 87.0 120.0 1,062 845 50,340 92,400 101,400 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 77.0 1,178 74,720 90,690 : US :2,396.0 1,939.0 1,429 1,538 2,868,870 3,422,840 2,981,670 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2009 yield and production estimates for oil and non-oil varieties will be published in the "Crop Production 2009 Summary." 2/ Beginning in 2009, CA and OK are published individually. 3/ For 2008, Other States include CA, IL, MI, MO, MT. OK, WI, and WY. Beginning in 2009, Other States is discontinued. Peanuts: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield and Production by State and United States, 2007-2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 1/ : 2009 : 2007 : 2008 1/ : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : AL : 160.0 195.0 155.0 157.0 193.0 153.0 FL : 130.0 150.0 115.0 119.0 140.0 105.0 GA : 530.0 690.0 505.0 520.0 685.0 500.0 MS : 19.0 22.0 21.0 18.0 21.0 20.0 NM : 10.0 8.0 7.0 10.0 8.0 7.0 NC : 92.0 98.0 67.0 90.0 97.0 66.0 OK : 18.0 19.0 13.0 17.0 18.0 12.0 SC : 59.0 71.0 49.0 56.0 68.0 47.0 TX : 190.0 257.0 165.0 187.0 253.0 160.0 VA : 22.0 24.0 12.0 21.0 24.0 12.0 : US : 1,230.0 1,534.0 1,109.0 1,195.0 1,507.0 1,082.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production State :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : 2009 : : : : 2007 : 2008 1/ :-------------------: 2007 : 2008 1/ : 2009 : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------------- Pounds ------------- -------- 1,000 Pounds -------- : AL : 2,550 3,500 3,300 3,300 400,350 675,500 504,900 FL : 2,700 3,200 3,100 3,100 321,300 448,000 325,500 GA : 3,120 3,400 3,500 3,500 1,622,400 2,329,000 1,750,000 MS : 3,300 3,900 3,500 3,500 59,400 81,900 70,000 NM : 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 32,000 25,600 22,400 NC : 2,900 3,700 3,400 3,500 261,000 358,900 231,000 OK : 3,400 3,500 3,200 3,400 57,800 63,000 40,800 SC : 3,100 3,900 3,300 3,000 173,600 265,200 141,000 TX : 3,700 3,300 3,400 3,200 691,900 834,900 512,000 VA : 2,500 3,350 3,400 3,400 52,500 80,400 40,800 : US : 3,073 3,426 3,397 3,363 3,672,250 5,162,400 3,638,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/2008 Revised. Canola: Area Harvested, Yield and Production by State and United States, 2007-2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ---- Pounds --- -------- 1,000 Pounds ------- : ID 1/ : 15.0 1,200 18,000 MN : 22.0 12.0 1,600 1,800 38,400 35,200 21,600 MT : 7.4 6.2 1,910 2,100 9,639 14,134 13,020 ND : 895.0 715.0 1,460 1,900 1,316,100 1,306,700 1,358,500 OK 1/ : 40.0 1,400 56,000 OR 1/ : 4.4 2,500 11,000 : Oth Sts 2/ : 64.6 14.9 1,378 1,658 66,595 89,030 24,700 : US : 989.0 807.5 1,461 1,861 1,430,734 1,445,064 1,502,820 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Beginning in 2009, ID, OK, and OR are published individually. 2/ For 2008, Other States include CO, ID, KS, MI, OK, OR, and WA. For 2009, Other States include CO, KS, and WA. Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State, and United States, 2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production 1/ Type :------------------------------------------------------------------- and : : : : 2009 : : State : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 :-------------------: 2008 : 2009 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- -------- Pounds -------- 1,000 Bales 2/ : Upland : AL : 286.0 250.0 787 806 806 469.0 420.0 AZ : 133.0 139.0 1,462 1,450 1,450 405.0 420.0 AR : 615.0 500.0 1,012 1,056 1,037 1,296.0 1,080.0 CA : 117.0 70.0 1,506 1,495 1,495 367.0 218.0 FL : 65.0 81.0 916 830 830 124.0 140.0 GA : 920.0 990.0 835 897 897 1,600.0 1,850.0 KS : 25.0 32.0 653 720 720 34.0 48.0 LA : 234.0 225.0 576 864 811 281.0 380.0 MS : 360.0 285.0 911 960 909 683.0 540.0 MO : 303.0 263.0 1,106 1,132 1,132 698.0 620.0 NM : 35.0 28.0 974 1,029 1,029 71.0 60.0 NC : 428.0 370.0 847 824 876 755.0 675.0 OK : 155.0 195.0 811 837 825 262.0 335.0 SC : 134.0 114.0 881 720 737 246.0 175.0 TN : 280.0 280.0 909 960 943 530.0 550.0 TX : 3,250.0 3,700.0 657 701 649 4,450.0 5,000.0 VA : 60.0 64.0 908 900 900 113.5 120.0 : US : 7,400.0 7,586.0 803 827 799 12,384.5 12,631.0 : Amer-Pima 3/: AZ : 0.8 1.3 480 997 997 0.8 2.7 CA : 151.0 127.0 1,281 1,247 1,247 403.0 330.0 NM : 1.9 1.4 758 789 789 3.0 2.3 TX : 15.0 16.5 768 931 931 24.0 32.0 : US : 168.7 146.2 1,226 1,205 1,205 430.8 367.0 : All : AL : 286.0 250.0 787 806 806 469.0 420.0 AZ : 133.8 140.3 1,456 1,446 1,446 405.8 422.7 AR : 615.0 500.0 1,012 1,056 1,037 1,296.0 1,080.0 CA : 268.0 197.0 1,379 1,335 1,335 770.0 548.0 FL : 65.0 81.0 916 830 830 124.0 140.0 GA : 920.0 990.0 835 897 897 1,600.0 1,850.0 KS : 25.0 32.0 653 720 720 34.0 48.0 LA : 234.0 225.0 576 864 811 281.0 380.0 MS : 360.0 285.0 911 960 909 683.0 540.0 MO : 303.0 263.0 1,106 1,132 1,132 698.0 620.0 NM : 36.9 29.4 963 1,017 1,017 74.0 62.3 NC : 428.0 370.0 847 824 876 755.0 675.0 OK : 155.0 195.0 811 837 825 262.0 335.0 SC : 134.0 114.0 881 720 737 246.0 175.0 TN : 280.0 280.0 909 960 943 530.0 550.0 TX : 3,265.0 3,716.5 658 702 650 4,474.0 5,032.0 VA : 60.0 64.0 908 900 900 113.5 120.0 : US : 7,568.7 7,732.2 813 835 807 12,815.3 12,998.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production ginned and to be ginned. 2/ 480-lb. net weight bale. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Cottonseed: Production, United States, 2007-2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Tons : US : 6,588.7 4,300.3 4,382.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures for Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2007-2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : AZ : 260 270 8.60 8.50 2,040 2,236 2,295 CA : 950 975 7.00 6.70 7,128 6,650 6,533 CO : 820 840 3.30 3.70 3,034 2,706 3,108 ID : 1,130 1,140 4.40 4.10 4,715 4,972 4,674 IL : 350 340 3.90 3.80 1,406 1,365 1,292 IN : 300 300 4.00 3.90 756 1,200 1,170 IA : 1,150 1,000 3.80 3.70 4,240 4,370 3,700 KS : 700 750 4.10 4.30 2,960 2,870 3,225 KY : 240 230 2.50 3.60 504 600 828 MI : 770 730 2.90 2.80 1,925 2,233 2,044 MN : 1,350 1,250 3.10 2.80 3,190 4,185 3,500 MO : 350 330 3.20 3.70 1,140 1,120 1,221 MT : 1,600 1,650 1.90 2.20 3,740 3,040 3,630 NE : 970 970 3.95 4.10 4,015 3,832 3,977 NV : 270 275 4.80 5.00 1,193 1,296 1,375 NM : 250 240 5.20 5.20 1,248 1,300 1,248 NY : 350 420 2.70 2.00 1,008 945 840 ND : 1,660 1,500 1.40 1.70 3,255 2,324 2,550 OH : 420 520 2.90 3.60 1,364 1,218 1,872 OK : 310 300 3.60 3.60 1,258 1,116 1,080 OR : 420 420 4.00 4.80 1,681 1,680 2,016 PA : 550 500 3.00 3.70 1,800 1,650 1,850 SD : 2,400 2,400 2.30 2.40 4,950 5,520 5,760 TX : 130 160 4.70 5.50 700 611 880 UT : 550 550 4.20 4.20 2,255 2,310 2,310 VA : 90 100 3.00 3.40 234 270 340 WA : 410 480 4.40 4.90 2,288 1,804 2,352 WI : 1,500 1,550 2.70 2.70 3,720 4,050 4,185 WY : 530 600 2.90 2.60 1,620 1,537 1,560 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 200 192 3.05 2.93 513 610 562 : US : 20,980 20,982 3.32 3.43 69,880 69,620 71,977 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AR, CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NC, RI, TN, VT, and WV. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2009 Summary." All Other Hay: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2007-2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- ---- Tons ---- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- : AL : 900 820 2.20 2.30 1,512 1,980 1,886 AR : 1,390 1,400 2.20 2.20 3,045 3,058 3,080 CA : 570 640 3.80 3.70 1,914 2,166 2,368 CO : 750 760 1.70 2.20 1,425 1,275 1,672 GA : 720 690 2.20 2.50 1,273 1,584 1,725 ID : 280 360 2.20 2.10 630 616 756 IL : 270 260 1.90 2.40 510 513 624 IN : 290 300 2.30 2.30 660 667 690 IA : 400 370 2.40 2.40 704 960 888 KS : 2,050 2,100 1.90 1.80 3,570 3,895 3,780 KY : 2,400 2,200 1.90 2.40 3,600 4,560 5,280 LA : 430 450 2.50 2.60 1,134 1,075 1,170 MI : 250 290 1.60 1.80 504 400 522 MN : 600 800 1.80 1.50 1,050 1,080 1,200 MS : 720 820 2.70 3.00 1,840 1,944 2,460 MO : 3,850 3,550 2.00 2.10 6,388 7,700 7,455 MT : 800 800 1.30 1.50 1,350 1,040 1,200 NE : 1,600 1,700 1.50 1.50 2,170 2,400 2,550 NY : 970 1,060 1.80 1.50 1,692 1,746 1,590 NC : 800 780 2.00 2.40 1,035 1,600 1,872 ND : 1,560 1,120 1.15 1.50 1,808 1,794 1,680 OH : 720 660 2.20 2.50 1,440 1,584 1,650 OK : 2,600 2,700 1.70 1.60 5,600 4,420 4,320 OR : 605 640 2.10 2.10 1,260 1,271 1,344 PA : 1,200 1,100 1.80 2.60 2,400 2,160 2,860 SD : 1,450 1,450 1.60 1.50 2,325 2,320 2,175 TN : 1,850 1,900 2.10 2.40 2,625 3,885 4,560 TX : 4,300 4,500 2.00 2.00 14,040 8,600 9,000 VA : 1,180 1,170 2.10 2.20 2,160 2,478 2,574 WA : 300 360 2.70 2.90 1,050 810 1,044 WV : 580 600 1.80 1.90 855 1,044 1,140 WI : 400 380 1.90 1.90 672 760 722 WY : 500 570 1.40 1.40 728 700 798 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,797 1,895 2.21 2.17 4,052 3,967 4,117 : US : 39,082 39,195 1.95 2.06 77,021 76,052 80,752 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include AZ, CT, DE, FL, ME, MD, MA, NV, NH, NJ, NM, RI, SC, UT, VT. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Crop Production 2009 Summary." Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2009 : : : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 :-------------------: 2008 : 2009 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 Acres -- --------- Tons --------- -- 1,000 Tons -- : CA : 25.4 24.6 39.7 40.0 40.0 1,008 984 CO : 28.6 35.0 26.5 27.7 27.7 758 970 ID : 116.0 163.0 31.2 34.1 34.1 3,619 5,558 MI : 136.0 136.0 28.7 27.0 27.0 3,903 3,672 MN : 399.0 450.0 24.7 25.0 24.5 9,855 11,025 MT : 30.7 37.9 26.8 29.5 29.5 823 1,118 NE : 37.3 52.5 22.6 22.0 22.0 843 1,155 ND : 197.0 219.0 25.9 25.0 24.5 5,102 5,366 OR : 5.9 10.5 33.1 34.8 34.8 195 365 WA 2/ : 1.6 41.9 67 WY : 27.1 30.0 24.5 26.0 26.0 664 780 : US : 1,004.6 1,158.5 26.7 27.0 26.8 26,837 30,993 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA. 2/ Estimates discontinued in 2009. Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2009 : : : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 :-------------------: 2008 : 2009 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres --------- Tons --------- -- 1,000 Tons -- : FL : 401.0 390.0 33.1 36.7 36.7 13,255 14,313 HI : 22.8 21.7 65.5 67.2 67.2 1,494 1,458 LA : 405.0 400.0 28.3 27.0 28.0 11,462 11,200 TX : 39.2 41.0 35.5 35.0 37.4 1,392 1,533 : US : 868.0 852.7 31.8 32.8 33.4 27,603 28,504 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 1/ : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : AZ 2/ 3/ : 11.0 11.0 CA : 52.0 69.0 51.9 68.0 CO : 48.0 57.0 44.0 52.0 ID : 80.0 100.0 79.0 99.0 KS : 6.0 8.5 5.5 8.0 MI : 200.0 200.0 195.0 195.0 MN : 150.0 150.0 145.0 140.0 MT 2/ : 11.2 12.0 9.8 11.6 NE : 135.0 130.0 126.0 120.0 NM 2/ : 9.3 12.0 9.3 12.0 NY : 17.0 17.0 16.8 16.4 ND : 660.0 610.0 640.0 550.0 OR 2/ : 4.8 6.0 4.7 5.9 SD : 8.5 10.5 8.3 10.1 TX : 24.0 37.5 21.8 35.0 UT 4/ : 1.2 1.2 WA : 50.0 58.0 50.0 58.0 WI 2/ : 6.5 6.1 6.4 6.0 WY : 31.5 38.0 30.5 37.0 : US : 1,495.0 1,532.6 1,445.2 1,435.0 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield 5/ : Production 5/ :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Pounds ------ ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : AZ 2/ 3/ : 2,100 231 CA : 1,850 2,050 960 1,394 CO : 1,500 1,650 660 858 ID : 1,850 2,000 1,462 1,980 KS : 2,100 2,250 116 180 MI : 1,850 1,750 3,607 3,413 MN : 1,950 1,800 2,828 2,520 MT 2/ : 1,950 2,090 191 243 NE : 2,290 2,350 2,885 2,820 NM 2/ : 2,300 2,300 214 276 NY : 1,930 1,300 324 213 ND : 1,570 1,500 10,048 8,250 OR 2/ : 2,000 2,300 94 136 SD : 1,840 1,700 153 172 TX : 1,300 1,600 283 560 UT 4/ : 550 7 WA : 1,770 1,770 885 1,027 WI 2/ : 2,130 2,000 136 120 WY : 2,310 2,100 705 777 : US : 1,768 1,754 25,558 25,170 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from the August "Crop Production" report. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ Estimates began in 2009. 4/ Estimates discontinued in 2009. 5/ Cleaned basis. Winter Potatoes: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested State :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres CA : 11.0 9.0 11.0 8.7 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production :--------------------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 :--------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- Cwt ------- ------ 1,000 Cwt ----- : CA : 230 245 2,530 2,132 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2009 : : : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 :-------------------: 2008 : 2009 : : : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- -------- Pounds -------- -- 1,000 Pounds -- : CT : 2,600 1,750 1,352 1,343 1,371 3,516 2,400 GA : 16,000 14,000 2,100 1,500 1,500 33,600 21,000 KY : 87,800 88,700 2,345 2,379 2,338 205,850 207,360 MA : 690 390 1,403 1,546 1,523 968 594 MO 1/ : 1,500 2,240 3,360 NC : 174,300 177,300 2,240 2,389 2,389 390,360 423,540 OH 2/ : 3,400 3,200 2,050 2,000 2,000 6,970 6,400 PA : 7,900 8,200 2,232 2,349 2,349 17,630 19,265 SC : 19,000 18,500 2,100 2,050 2,000 39,900 37,000 TN : 21,800 21,600 2,403 2,458 2,362 52,380 51,020 VA : 19,500 19,650 2,357 2,263 2,310 45,970 45,385 : US : 354,490 353,290 2,258 2,319 2,304 800,504 813,964 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2009. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Tobacco: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class, Type, State, and United States, 2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Harvested : Yield : Production Class, Type, and State :----------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Acres ----- --- Pounds --- 1,000 Pounds : Class 1, Flue-cured : GA : 16,000 14,000 2,100 1,500 33,600 21,000 NC : 171,000 174,000 2,250 2,400 384,750 417,600 SC : 19,000 18,500 2,100 2,000 39,900 37,000 VA : 17,000 17,000 2,410 2,350 40,970 39,950 US : 223,000 223,500 2,239 2,307 499,220 515,550 Class 2, Fire-cured : KY : 10,900 9,100 3,500 3,500 38,150 31,850 TN : 7,200 6,400 3,200 3,200 23,040 20,480 VA : 500 650 2,000 1,900 1,000 1,235 US : 18,600 16,150 3,344 3,317 62,190 53,565 Class 3, Air-cured : Light Air-cured : Burley : KY : 70,000 75,000 2,100 2,150 147,000 161,250 MO 1/ : 1,500 2,240 3,360 NC : 3,300 3,300 1,700 1,800 5,610 5,940 OH 2/ : 3,400 3,200 2,050 2,000 6,970 6,400 PA : 4,300 4,100 2,300 2,400 9,890 9,840 TN : 13,000 14,000 1,900 1,950 24,700 27,300 VA : 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,100 4,000 4,200 US : 97,500 101,600 2,067 2,115 201,530 214,930 Southern MD Belt : PA : 1,800 2,100 2,100 2,250 3,780 4,725 Total Light Air-cured : 99,300 103,700 2,068 2,118 205,310 219,655 Dark Air-cured : KY : 6,900 4,600 3,000 3,100 20,700 14,260 TN : 1,600 1,200 2,900 2,700 4,640 3,240 US : 8,500 5,800 2,981 3,017 25,340 17,500 Class 4, Cigar Filler : PA Seedleaf : PA : 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,350 3,960 4,700 Class 5, Cigar Binder : CT Valley Broadleaf : CT : 1,700 1,000 1,380 1,500 2,346 1,500 MA : 500 300 1,460 1,650 730 495 US : 2,200 1,300 1,398 1,535 3,076 1,995 Class 6, Cigar Wrapper : CT Valley Shade-grown : CT : 900 750 1,300 1,200 1,170 900 MA : 190 90 1,250 1,100 238 99 US : 1,090 840 1,292 1,189 1,408 999 All Cigar Types : 5,090 4,140 1,659 1,858 8,444 7,694 : All Tobacco : 354,490 353,290 2,258 2,304 800,504 813,964 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2009. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2007-08, 2008-09 and Forecast October 1, 2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :------------------------------------------------------- :2007-08 : 2008-09 : 2009-10 :2009-08 : 2008-09 :2009-10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------ 1,000 Tons ------ Oranges : Early Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 230 150 9 5 CA : 45,000 34,500 40,000 1,688 1,294 1,500 FL : 83,500 84,600 69,000 3,758 3,807 3,105 TX : 1,600 1,300 1,250 68 55 53 US :130,330 120,550 110,250 5,523 5,161 4,658 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 150 100 6 4 CA : 17,000 14,000 15,000 637 525 563 FL : 86,700 77,800 67,000 3,901 3,501 3,015 TX : 196 159 200 9 7 9 US :104,046 92,059 82,200 4,553 4,037 3,587 All : AZ 4/ : 380 250 15 9 CA : 62,000 48,500 55,000 2,325 1,819 2,063 FL :170,200 162,400 136,000 7,659 7,308 6,120 TX : 1,796 1,459 1,450 77 62 62 US :234,376 212,609 192,450 10,076 9,198 8,245 Grapefruit : White : FL : 9,000 6,600 5,800 383 280 247 Colored : FL : 17,600 15,100 14,000 748 642 595 All : AZ 4/ : 100 25 3 1 CA : 5,200 5,600 4,700 174 188 157 FL : 26,600 21,700 19,800 1,131 922 842 TX : 6,000 5,500 5,300 240 220 212 US : 37,900 32,825 29,800 1,548 1,331 1,211 Tangerines and Mandarins: AZ 5/ : 400 250 350 15 9 13 CA 5/ : 6,700 6,700 7,000 251 251 263 FL : 5,500 3,850 4,900 261 183 233 US : 12,600 10,800 12,250 527 443 509 Lemons : AZ : 1,500 3,000 2,500 57 114 95 CA : 14,800 22,000 20,000 562 836 760 US : 16,300 25,000 22,500 619 950 855 Tangelos : FL : 1,500 1,150 1,000 68 52 45 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with th completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; tangerines and mandarins-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX and Temples in FL. 4/ Estimates discontinued beginning with the 2009-10 crop year. 5/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Apples, Commercial: Total Production by State and United States, 2007-2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds : AZ 2/ : 23.0 18.0 22.0 CA 2/ : 345.0 360.0 330.0 CO 2/ : 13.0 18.0 16.0 CT 2/ : 23.0 19.5 18.0 GA 3/ : 2.0 12.0 ID 2/ : 35.0 85.0 65.0 IL 2/ : 6.0 46.2 45.0 IN 2/ : 20.0 23.0 32.0 IA 2/ : 2.7 4.7 4.2 KY 3/ : 0.6 7.7 ME 2/ : 40.0 38.5 35.5 MD 2/ : 29.0 33.5 33.7 MA 2/ : 38.5 41.0 39.5 MI : 770.0 600.0 1,150.0 MN 2/ : 26.0 27.1 26.5 MO 2/ : 1.5 30.2 25.1 NH 2/ : 34.5 36.5 28.5 NJ 2/ : 42.0 43.0 44.0 NY : 1,310.0 1,250.0 1,290.0 NC : 60.0 165.0 100.0 OH 2/ : 55.6 104.0 99.0 OR 2/ : 135.0 119.0 110.0 PA : 470.0 440.0 485.0 RI 2/ : 2.6 2.4 2.0 SC 3/ : 0.3 7.0 TN 2/ : 0.1 10.0 8.0 UT 2/ : 19.0 12.0 18.0 VT 2/ : 38.0 44.0 40.5 VA : 215.0 230.0 200.0 WA : 5,200.0 5,800.0 5,600.0 WV : 80.0 85.0 90.0 WI 2/ : 52.0 57.0 58.5 : US : 9,089.4 9,769.3 10,016.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ In orchards of 100 or more bearing age trees. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ Estimates discontinued in 2009. Pecans: Production by Variety, State, and United States, 2007-2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Variety : Utilized Production (In-Shell Basis) and :----------------------------------------------------------- State : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Pounds Improved : Varieties 1/ : AL : 10,000 7,400 11,600 AZ : 23,000 17,500 24,000 AR : 1,500 1,000 1,500 CA : 4,400 3,750 3,800 FL : 1,700 1,400 1,800 GA : 135,000 66,000 86,000 LA : 3,000 1,000 2,500 MS : 2,200 900 2,000 MO : 2 110 250 NM : 74,000 43,000 76,000 NC 2/ : 160 600 OK : 3,000 1,000 6,000 SC : 1,500 3,000 3,300 TX : 44,000 20,000 45,000 : US : 303,462 166,660 263,750 : Native and : Seedling : AL : 2,000 600 1,400 AR : 800 500 800 FL : 200 300 300 GA : 15,000 4,000 4,000 KS : 500 1,900 1,700 LA : 11,000 4,000 5,500 MS : 800 600 500 MO : 3 830 1,550 NC 2/ : 40 100 OK : 27,000 4,000 14,000 SC : 500 400 700 TX : 26,000 10,000 15,000 : US : 83,843 27,230 45,450 : All Pecans : AL : 12,000 8,000 13,000 AZ : 23,000 17,500 24,000 AR : 2,300 1,500 2,300 CA : 4,400 3,750 3,800 FL : 1,900 1,700 2,100 GA : 150,000 70,000 90,000 KS : 500 1,900 1,700 LA : 14,000 5,000 8,000 MS : 3,000 1,500 2,500 MO : 5 940 1,800 NM : 74,000 43,000 76,000 NC 2/ : 200 700 OK : 30,000 5,000 20,000 SC : 2,000 3,400 4,000 TX : 70,000 30,000 60,000 : US : 387,305 193,890 309,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Budded, grafted, or topworked varieties. 2/ Estimates discontinued in 2009. Grapes: Total Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2007-2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production State :-------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : AZ 1/ : 900 800 AR 2/ : 500 1,700 2,300 CA : All Types : 6,230,000 6,532,000 6,250,000 Wine : 3,288,000 3,055,000 3,400,000 Table 3/ : 791,000 972,000 850,000 Raisin 3/ : 2,151,000 2,505,000 2,000,000 GA 2/ : 2,900 3,500 3,700 MI : 100,100 73,700 99,000 MO 2/ : 2,500 5,200 4,800 NY : 180,000 172,000 135,000 NC 2/ : 3,650 5,600 5,700 OH 2/ : 7,600 5,660 4,500 OR 2/ : 38,600 34,700 37,000 PA : 84,000 107,200 70,000 TX 2/ : 4,900 4,200 7,000 VA 2/ : 5,600 7,000 7,000 WA : All Types : 396,000 350,000 395,000 Wine : 127,000 145,000 155,000 Juice : 269,000 205,000 240,000 : US : 7,057,250 7,303,260 7,021,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimates discontinued in 2009. 2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast. 3/ Fresh basis. Papayas: Area and Fresh Production by Month, Hawaii, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area : Fresh Production 1/ :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : Total in Crop : Harvested : : :---------------------------------------------: 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------------- Acres ---------------- 1,000 Pounds : Jul : 2,310 2,075 1,350 1,315 2,095 2,805 Aug : 2,310 2,070 1,350 1,310 2,380 2,305 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized fresh production. Prunes (Dried Plums): Total Production, California, 2007-2008 and Forecasted 2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total Production Crop :----------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Tons : Prunes (Dried Basis) : 83,000 129,000 170,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecast was carried forward from an earlier forecast. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2008-2009 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 4,246.0 3,567.0 3,779.0 3,123.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 85,982.0 86,351.0 78,640.0 79,294.0 Corn for Silage : 5,965.0 Hay, All : 60,062.0 60,177.0 Alfalfa : 20,980.0 20,982.0 All Other : 39,082.0 39,195.0 Oats : 3,247.0 3,404.0 1,400.0 1,379.0 Proso Millet : 520.0 405.0 460.0 Rice : 2,995.0 3,125.0 2,976.0 3,101.0 Rye : 1,260.0 1,241.0 269.0 252.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 8,284.0 6,623.0 7,271.0 5,681.0 Sorghum for Silage : 408.0 Wheat, All : 63,193.0 59,133.0 55,699.0 50,058.0 Winter : 46,307.0 43,311.0 39,608.0 34,485.0 Durum : 2,721.0 2,554.0 2,574.0 2,518.0 Other Spring : 14,165.0 13,268.0 13,517.0 13,055.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1,011.0 831.0 989.0 807.5 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 354.0 353.0 340.0 341.0 Mustard Seed : 79.5 53.5 71.5 50.5 Peanuts : 1,534.0 1,109.0 1,507.0 1,082.0 Rapeseed : 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.8 Safflower : 202.0 194.0 195.0 187.0 Soybeans for Beans : 75,718.0 77,510.0 74,681.0 76,619.0 Sunflower : 2,516.5 2,032.0 2,396.0 1,939.0 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 9,471.0 9,138.7 7,568.7 7,732.2 Upland : 9,297.0 8,989.0 7,400.0 7,586.0 Amer-Pima : 174.0 149.7 168.7 146.2 Sugarbeets : 1,090.8 1,185.0 1,004.6 1,158.5 Sugarcane : 868.0 852.7 Tobacco : 354.5 353.3 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 17.5 20.5 8.0 9.7 Dry Edible Beans : 1,495.0 1,532.6 1,445.2 1,435.0 Dry Edible Peas : 882.5 880.7 847.3 840.9 Lentils : 271.0 410.0 263.0 399.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 Ginger Root (HI) : 0.1 Hops : 40.9 40.2 Peppermint Oil : 60.0 Potatoes, All : 1,059.6 1,061.4 1,046.9 1,047.6 Winter : 11.0 9.0 11.0 8.7 Spring : 70.3 75.6 68.8 73.4 Summer : 47.2 43.9 45.1 42.5 Fall : 931.1 932.9 922.0 922.7 Spearmint Oil : 20.4 Sweet Potatoes : 103.2 106.7 97.3 103.3 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or f previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2008-2009 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------- 1,000 ------- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 63.6 72.8 240,193 227,383 Corn for Grain :" : 153.9 164.2 12,101,238 13,018,058 Corn for Silage :Tons : 18.7 111,619 Hay, All :" : 2.43 2.54 145,672 152,729 Alfalfa :" : 3.32 3.43 69,620 71,977 All Other :" : 1.95 2.06 76,052 80,752 Oats :Bu : 63.7 67.6 89,135 93,276 Proso Millet :" : 32.3 14,880 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 6,846 7,115 203,733 220,647 Rye :Bu : 29.7 27.8 7,979 6,993 Sorghum for Grain :" : 65.0 64.0 472,342 363,723 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 13.8 5,646 Wheat, All :Bu : 44.9 44.4 2,499,164 2,220,156 Winter :" : 47.1 44.2 1,867,333 1,522,718 Durum :" : 32.6 43.7 83,827 110,077 Other Spring :" : 40.5 45.0 548,004 587,361 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,461 1,861 1,445,064 1,502,820 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 4,300.3 4,535.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 16.8 5,716 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 577 41,255 Peanuts :" : 3,426 3,363 5,162,400 3,638,400 Rapeseed :" : 1,500 300 Safflower :" : 1,592 310,433 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 39.7 42.4 2,967,007 3,250,113 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,429 1,538 3,422,840 2,981,670 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 813 807 12,815.3 12,998.0 Upland 2/ :" : 803 799 12,384.5 12,631.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,226 1,205 430.8 367.0 Sugarbeets :Tons : 26.7 26.8 26,837 30,993 Sugarcane :" : 31.8 33.4 27,603 28,504 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,258 2,304 800,504 813,964 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,300 104 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,768 1,754 25,558 25,170 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 1,448 12,270 Lentils 2/ :" : 917 2,411 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 580 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,370 8,600 Ginger Root (HI) :" : 30,000 1,800 Hops :" : 1,971 2,013 80,630.1 80,878.7 Peppermint Oil :" : 92 5,499 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 396 415,055 Winter :" : 230 245 2,530 2,132 Spring :" : 293 291 20,132 21,325 Summer :" : 306 346 13,805 14,705 Fall :" : 411 378,588 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 118 2,399 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 190 18,443 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or f previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2008-2009 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,718,310 1,443,530 1,529,320 1,263,850 Corn for Grain 2/ :34,796,060 34,945,390 31,824,820 32,089,490 Corn for Silage : 2,413,980 Hay, All 3/ : 24,306,490 24,353,030 Alfalfa : 8,490,400 8,491,210 All Other : 15,816,090 15,861,820 Oats : 1,314,030 1,377,560 566,570 558,070 Proso Millet : 210,440 163,900 186,160 Rice : 1,212,050 1,264,660 1,204,360 1,254,940 Rye : 509,910 502,220 108,860 101,980 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 3,352,450 2,680,260 2,942,500 2,299,040 Sorghum for Silage : 165,110 Wheat, All 3/ :25,573,580 23,930,530 22,540,830 20,257,970 Winter :18,739,980 17,527,530 16,028,960 13,955,730 Durum : 1,101,160 1,033,580 1,041,670 1,019,010 Other Spring : 5,732,430 5,369,430 5,470,190 5,283,230 : Oilseeds : Canola : 409,140 336,300 400,240 326,790 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 143,260 142,860 137,590 138,000 Mustard Seed : 32,170 21,650 28,940 20,440 Peanuts : 620,790 448,800 609,870 437,870 Rapeseed : 80 360 80 320 Safflower : 81,750 78,510 78,910 75,680 Soybeans for Beans :30,642,320 31,367,520 30,222,650 31,006,940 Sunflower : 1,018,400 822,330 969,640 784,690 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 3,832,820 3,698,340 3,062,980 3,129,140 Upland : 3,762,400 3,637,760 2,994,710 3,069,980 Amer-Pima : 70,420 60,580 68,270 59,170 Sugarbeets : 441,440 479,560 406,550 468,830 Sugarcane : 351,270 345,080 Tobacco : 143,460 142,970 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 7,080 8,300 3,240 3,930 Dry Edible Beans : 605,010 620,230 584,860 580,730 Dry Edible Peas : 357,140 356,410 342,890 340,300 Lentils : 109,670 165,920 106,430 161,470 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 Ginger Root (HI) : 20 Hops : 16,550 16,260 Peppermint Oil : 24,280 Potatoes, All 3/ : 428,810 429,540 423,670 423,950 Winter : 4,450 3,640 4,450 3,520 Spring : 28,450 30,590 27,840 29,700 Summer : 19,100 17,770 18,250 17,200 Fall : 376,810 377,540 373,120 373,410 Spearmint Oil : 8,260 Sweet Potatoes : 41,760 43,180 39,380 41,800 Taro (HI) 5/ : 160 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or f previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2008-2009 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.42 3.92 5,229,590 4,950,680 Corn for Grain : 9.66 10.30 307,385,600 330,673,900 Corn for Silage : 41.95 101,259,050 Hay, All 2/ : 5.44 5.69 132,151,420 138,553,420 Alfalfa : 7.44 7.69 63,158,200 65,296,440 All Other : 4.36 4.62 68,993,210 73,256,980 Oats : 2.28 2.43 1,293,790 1,353,900 Proso Millet : 1.81 337,470 Rice : 7.67 7.98 9,241,170 10,008,380 Rye : 1.86 1.74 202,680 177,630 Sorghum for Grain : 4.08 4.02 11,998,040 9,238,990 Sorghum for Silage : 31.02 5,121,970 Wheat, All 2/ : 3.02 2.98 68,016,100 60,422,740 Winter : 3.17 2.97 50,820,480 41,441,590 Durum : 2.19 2.94 2,281,400 2,995,800 Other Spring : 2.73 3.03 14,914,220 15,985,350 : Oilseeds : Canola : 1.64 2.09 655,470 681,670 Cottonseed 3/ : 3,901,170 4,114,080 Flaxseed : 1.06 145,190 Mustard Seed : 0.65 18,710 Peanuts : 3.84 3.77 2,341,630 1,650,350 Rapeseed : 1.68 140 Safflower : 1.78 140,810 Soybeans for Beans : 2.67 2.85 80,748,700 88,453,580 Sunflower : 1.60 1.72 1,552,570 1,352,460 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.91 0.90 2,790,200 2,829,980 Upland : 0.90 0.90 2,696,410 2,750,080 Amer-Pima : 1.37 1.35 93,800 79,900 Sugarbeets : 59.88 59.97 24,346,120 28,116,380 Sugarcane : 71.29 74.93 25,041,020 25,858,390 Tobacco : 2.53 2.58 363,100 369,210 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.46 4,720 Dry Edible Beans : 1.98 1.97 1,159,290 1,141,690 Dry Edible Peas : 1.62 556,560 Lentils : 1.03 109,360 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 26,310 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.53 3,900 Ginger Root (HI) : 33.63 820 Hops : 2.21 2.26 36,570 36,690 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 2,490 Potatoes, All 2/ : 44.44 18,826,580 Winter : 25.78 27.47 114,760 96,710 Spring : 32.80 32.56 913,170 967,290 Summer : 34.31 38.78 626,180 667,010 Fall : 46.02 17,172,460 Spearmint Oil : 0.13 1,090 Sweet Potatoes : 21.25 836,560 Taro (HI) 3/ : 1,950 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or f previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2008-2010 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :----------------------------------------- : : 2008 : 2009 : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit :Tons : 1,548 1,331 1,211 Lemons :" : 619 950 855 Oranges :" : 10,076 9,198 8,245 Tangelos (FL) :" : 68 52 45 Tangerines and Mandarins :" : 527 443 509 : : Noncitrus : : Apples :1,000 Lbs: 9,769.3 10,016.0 Apricots :Tons : 81.6 75.3 Bananas (HI) :Lbs : 17,400.0 Grapes :Tons : 7,303.3 7,021.0 Olives (CA) :" : 66.8 50.0 Papayas (HI) :Lbs : 33,500.0 Peaches :Tons : 1,133.3 1,078.3 Pears :" : 870.9 935.3 Prunes, Dried (CA) :" : 129.0 170.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) :" : 15.5 18.3 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled) :Lbs : 1,630,000 1,350,000 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) :Tons : 32.0 38.0 Pecans (in-shell) :Lbs : 193,890 309,200 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) :Tons : 436.0 415.0 Maple Syrup :Gals : 1,912 2,327 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or f previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2009-10 season. 2/ Production years are 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10. Fruits and Nuts Production, United States, 2008-2010 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :-------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,404,320 1,207,460 1,098,600 Lemons : 561,550 861,830 775,640 Oranges : 9,140,790 8,344,290 7,479,740 Tangelos (FL) : 61,690 47,170 40,820 Tangerines and Mandarins : 478,090 401,880 461,760 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,431,280 4,543,180 Apricots : 74,040 68,270 Bananas (HI) : 7,890 Grapes : 6,625,410 6,369,340 Olives (CA) : 60,600 45,360 Papayas (HI) : 15,200 Peaches : 1,028,120 978,250 Pears : 790,020 848,490 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 117,030 154,220 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,060 16,600 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 739,360 612,350 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) : 29,030 34,470 Pecans (in-shell) : 87,950 140,250 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) : 395,530 376,480 Maple Syrup : 9,560 11,630 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or f previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2009 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2009-10 season. 2/ Production years are 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10. Corn for Grain: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 10 corn producing States during 2009. Randomly selected plots in corn for grain fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are rounded actual field counts from this survey. Corn for Grain: Number of Ears per Acre, Selected States, 2005-2009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : IL : Sep : 26,950 27,600 27,750 28,600 29,150 : Oct : 26,850 27,450 27,750 28,500 28,900 : Nov : 26,850 27,400 27,750 28,400 : Final : 26,850 27,400 27,750 28,350 : : IN : Sep : 24,850 25,850 26,950 27,950 27,950 : Oct : 24,600 25,750 26,800 27,700 28,100 : Nov : 24,650 25,700 26,800 27,700 : Final : 24,650 25,750 26,800 27,700 : : IA : Sep : 27,150 27,350 28,500 28,600 29,250 : Oct : 27,100 27,350 28,400 28,600 29,200 : Nov : 27,100 27,350 28,450 28,600 : Final : 27,100 27,350 28,400 28,600 : : KS : Sep : 21,100 20,850 20,900 19,850 22,750 : Oct : 21,000 20,750 20,800 20,600 22,650 : Nov : 20,900 20,750 20,800 20,650 : Final : 20,900 20,750 20,800 20,650 : : MN : Sep : 28,000 28,050 28,850 29,900 30,250 : Oct : 27,900 28,250 28,600 29,350 30,750 : Nov : 28,050 28,250 28,600 29,450 : Final : 28,050 28,250 28,600 29,400 : : MO : Sep : 22,550 23,850 23,950 25,050 24,800 : Oct : 22,600 23,800 23,950 25,000 24,800 : Nov : 22,600 23,800 23,950 24,900 : Final : 22,600 23,800 23,950 24,900 : : NE : Sep : 23,250 23,850 24,850 24,050 25,650 All : Oct : 22,800 23,700 24,750 23,950 25,650 : Nov : 22,800 23,700 24,750 23,900 : Final : 22,800 23,550 24,750 23,900 : : NE : Sep : 26,250 26,750 27,200 26,800 27,900 Irrigated : Oct : 25,900 26,600 27,000 27,000 27,950 : Nov : 25,900 26,600 27,000 26,900 : Final : 25,900 26,650 27,000 26,900 : : NE : Sep : 19,550 19,400 21,100 19,550 22,100 Non-Irrigated: Oct : 18,950 19,150 21,050 19,500 22,050 : Nov : 18,900 19,200 21,100 19,550 : Final : 18,900 18,800 21,100 19,550 : : OH : Sep : 24,800 25,200 26,350 26,950 27,700 : Oct : 24,700 25,350 26,000 27,400 27,950 : Nov : 24,650 25,450 25,950 27,250 : Final : 24,650 25,450 25,950 27,250 : : SD : Sep : 23,150 22,050 23,250 24,150 26,150 : Oct : 23,100 21,900 22,700 23,900 26,050 : Nov : 23,050 21,700 22,700 23,800 : Final : 23,050 21,700 22,700 23,800 : : WI : Sep : 26,550 26,750 27,800 27,750 27,500 : Oct : 26,350 26,850 27,700 28,300 28,850 : Nov : 26,350 27,200 27,850 27,950 : Final : 26,350 27,200 27,850 27,900 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Soybeans: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 11 soybean producing States during 2009. Randomly selected plots in soybean fields are visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Soybeans: Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet, Selected States, 2005-2009 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR 1/ : Sep : : Oct : 1,796 1,645 1,621 1,569 1,785 : Nov : 1,823 1,655 1,665 1,723 : Final : 1,824 1,667 1,690 1,715 : : IL : Sep : 1,824 1,860 1,800 1,621 1,610 : Oct : 1,820 1,890 1,796 1,893 1,672 : Nov : 1,858 1,923 1,818 1,801 : Final : 1,858 1,923 1,831 1,829 : : IN : Sep : 1,747 1,764 1,667 1,608 1,516 : Oct : 1,790 1,893 1,660 1,577 1,525 : Nov : 1,899 1,909 1,628 1,648 : Final : 1,899 1,909 1,641 1,659 : : IA : Sep : 1,796 1,688 1,787 1,758 1,858 : Oct : 1,935 1,758 1,917 1,732 1,878 : Nov : 1,968 1,760 1,933 1,770 : Final : 1,970 1,760 1,932 1,775 : : KS : Sep : 1,383 1,466 1,605 1,346 1,627 : Oct : 1,431 1,509 1,524 1,487 1,759 : Nov : 1,547 1,581 1,608 1,581 : Final : 1,546 1,581 1,609 1,629 : : MN : Sep : 1,597 1,500 1,558 1,466 1,456 : Oct : 1,598 1,586 1,589 1,493 1,542 : Nov : 1,640 1,568 1,588 1,470 : Final : 1,640 1,568 1,588 1,472 : : MO : Sep : 1,580 1,673 1,566 1,538 1,856 : Oct : 1,585 1,746 1,579 1,473 1,983 : Nov : 1,679 1,738 1,685 1,673 : Final : 1,652 1,735 1,697 1,690 : : NE : Sep : 1,778 1,699 1,876 1,692 1,793 : Oct : 1,903 1,801 2,042 1,766 1,878 : Nov : 1,920 1,784 2,088 1,857 : Final : 1,920 1,766 2,084 1,857 : : ND : Sep : 1,386 1,127 1,323 1,261 1,208 : Oct : 1,471 1,241 1,445 1,261 1,236 : Nov : 1,496 1,260 1,500 1,405 : Final : 1,496 1,260 1,497 1,405 : : OH : Sep : 1,990 1,868 1,892 1,942 1,846 : Oct : 1,890 1,895 1,850 1,755 1,769 : Nov : 1,974 1,835 1,909 1,618 : Final : 1,981 1,866 1,909 1,616 : : SD : Sep : 1,572 1,255 1,476 1,425 1,513 : Oct : 1,617 1,345 1,492 1,465 1,642 : Nov : 1,605 1,316 1,510 1,492 : Final : 1,556 1,312 1,510 1,492 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ September data not available due to plant immaturity. Cotton: Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield surveys in 6 cotton producing States during 2009. Randomly selected plots in cotton fields were visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts from this survey. Cotton: Cumulative Boll Counts, Selected States, 2005-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Month : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Number : : AR : Sep : 811 859 790 943 1,051 : Oct : 728 814 839 810 814 : Nov : 733 849 849 852 : Dec : 733 824 849 846 : Final : 733 824 849 846 : : : : GA : Sep : 667 648 616 587 571 : Oct : 689 675 570 613 731 : Nov : 767 774 707 733 : Dec : 767 790 708 742 : Final : 767 790 708 742 : : LA : Sep : 746 760 796 655 714 : Oct : 768 781 808 578 792 : Nov : 775 786 841 579 : Dec : 775 785 841 579 : Final : 775 785 841 579 : : MS : Sep : 818 700 819 909 925 : Oct : 729 699 745 679 833 : Nov : 724 695 747 728 : Dec : 722 695 747 722 : Final : 722 695 747 722 : : NC : Sep : 799 637 527 667 701 : Oct : 693 641 601 652 730 : Nov : 721 671 625 702 : Dec : 721 671 625 704 : Final : 721 671 625 704 : : TX : Sep : 620 530 602 633 613 : Oct : 516 477 538 513 522 : Nov : 586 533 631 579 : Dec : 585 544 632 573 : Final : 585 544 632 573 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs per 40 feet of row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls. September Weather Summary An unusual weather pattern featured significantly above-normal temperatures in the North and West, but cooler than normal conditions across the central and southern Plains. Monthly temperatures ranged from as many as 4 degrees Fahrenheit below normal on the central Plains to more than 8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal at a few locations on the northern Plains near the Canadian border. The polar jet stream lifted well north of the U.S.-Canadian border for much of September, keeping the Midwest largely free of frost and allowing a pair of slow-moving storms to generate persistently cloudy, wet weather across parts of the South. September rainfall significantly eased drought in southern Texas but contributed to Southern fieldwork delays and reductions in the quality of crops such as rice, cotton, and soybeans. Rain was especially detrimental to unharvested crops in the Delta, while major flooding affected northern Georgia and neighboring areas. In contrast, relatively dry weather prevailed in much of the Atlantic coastal plain. Meanwhile, much of the Midwest experienced a long stretch of nearly ideal conditions for developmentally delayed corn and soybeans. The protracted warm, dry spell left more than half (57 percent) of the Nation's corn crop fully mature and more than three-quarters (79 percent) of the soybeans dropping leaves by October 4. Favorably warm, dry conditions also covered the northern Plains, allowing the spring wheat harvest to near completion by month's end. Across the remainder of the Nation's mid-section, cool weather and locally heavy showers slowed summer crop maturation and caused some minor fieldwork delays. Nevertheless, winter wheat planting proceeded roughly on schedule, with more than half (53 percent) of the Nation's crop planted by October 4. With the exception of some cool weather and occasional showers in the central and southern Rockies, generally warm, dry weather prevailed in the West. Fieldwork included winter wheat seeding in the Northwest, rice harvesting in California, and cotton harvesting in Arizona. September Agricultural Summary Several slow-moving storm systems dumped tremendous amounts of precipitation in areas of east Texas, the Delta, and the Southeast, worsening crop conditions and adding to already surplus soil moisture. Most of these regions received monthly accumulations greater than 200 percent of normal, with locations in western North Carolina, northern Georgia, and the panhandle of Florida totaling more than 16 inches of rainfall. Conversely, much of the remainder of the country received less than normal precipitation. With the exceptions of the southwestern Corn Belt, central and southern Great Plains, New Mexico, and spotty locations along the Atlantic Coast, temperatures were above average during the month. On September 6, eighty-six percent of the corn crop was at or beyond the dough stage and 50 percent was at or beyond the dent stage, over 1 week behind the 5-year average. Crop maturity had reached 8 percent, slightly behind last year and 15 points behind the average following planting and developmental delays earlier in the season. Above average temperatures and drier conditions mid-month in the northern Corn Belt allowed for active development of the crop to the dent stage. Ninety-seven percent of the crop was at the dough stage or beyond by September 20, slightly behind last year and the average. Unseasonably warm weather in North Dakota and the Great Lakes promoted late-maturing summer crop development. By October 4, acreage at the dent stage or beyond had advanced to 95 percent, 4 points behind the 5-year average, while crop maturity reached 57 percent complete, 27 points, or nearly 2 weeks, behind normal. Harvest was underway in most States by September 27, with 10 percent of the crop harvested Nationwide by October 4, fifteen points behind normal. Overall, 70 percent of the corn crop was rated in good to excellent condition on October 4, a slight improvement from ratings on August 30 and 9 points better than last year. Heading of the 2009 sorghum crop had advanced to 96 percent complete by September 6, one point ahead of the 5-year average. Heading was complete in the Delta and nearly complete on the Great Plains. Seventy percent of the crop was colored by September 13, slightly ahead of last year but 5 points behind the average, while crop maturity had reached 35 percent, 7 points behind normal. Producers had harvested 30 percent of the crop, 1 point behind last year and 2 points behind the 5-year average. Despite rapid development to maturation during the week ending September 20, double-digit delays remained in Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and South Dakota. By October 4, ninety-one percent of the sorghum crop was at the coloring stage or beyond, slightly behind normal. In Texas, the second largest sorghum-producing State, cool temperatures in the Northern High Plains delayed crop development. Crop maturity had advanced to 55 percent complete, 13 points behind the average. Harvest remained slow throughout the month, advancing just 6 points from September 6 to October 4. Overall, 49 percent of the sorghum crop was rated in good to excellent condition on October 4, unchanged from ratings in early September but 5 points below last year. As September began, oat producers continued harvesting their crop, with 93 percent of the Nation's acreage harvested by September 6, six points behind last year and the 5-year average. By September 13, harvest was complete in all of the major oat-producing States except Minnesota and North Dakota where progress was over 2 weeks behind normal. Barley harvest advanced rapidly during the first 2 weeks of September as producers removed 37 percent of the crop from their fields. Favorably warm, dry weather provided excellent conditions for fieldwork and by September 27, producers had harvested 95 percent of this year's crop, 2 points behind last year and 3 points behind the 5-year average. Winter wheat producers had seeded 5 percent of the 2010 crop by September 6, one point ahead of last year but on par with the average. Seeding was most advanced in Washington where warm, sunny days afforded producers ample time for fieldwork. Seeding remained active but slowed somewhat toward the end of the month. By October 4, seeding was complete on 53 percent of the acreage intended for harvest next year, 2 points behind both last year and the average. Emergence was evident in 26 percent of the crop, compared with 25 percent last year and 27 percent for the 5-year average. Spring wheat harvest continued to lag normal throughout the month September, but above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions across the major growing regions allowed producers to narrow the gap by month's end. Harvest was complete in South Dakota and Washington by September 20, on par with the average, but remained active in Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota. By October 4, producers had harvested 97 percent of the Nation's crop, 3 points behind last year and 2 points behind the 5-year average. Seventy-four percent of the spring wheat crop was rated in good to excellent condition when harvest crossed the halfway point during the week ending September 6. Heading of the 2009 rice crop had reached 95 percent complete by September 6, slightly behind last year and 3 points behind the 5-year average. Heading was complete or nearly complete in all States except Arkansas and Missouri where overall progress remained behind normal. The month began with harvest ahead of last year's pace but behind the average. Abnormally wet weather in the Delta slowed progress toward the end of the month as producers battled soggy fields. On October 4, sixty-two percent of the rice crop was harvested, 5 points behind last year and 16 points, or over 1 week, behind normal. Overall, 60 percent of the rice crop was rated in good to excellent condition on October 4. Conditions held steady during the first 2 weeks of the month, but declined 3 points from September 13 to October 4 as tremendous amounts of rain fell in the Delta causing lodging and downed crop stands in some rice fields. Pod set was nearly complete in this year's soybean crop by September 6, with 97 percent of the acreage at or beyond the stage, slightly ahead of last year but 2 points behind the 5-year average. Leaves had dropped on 17 percent of the soybean crop by September 13 but progress was over 1 week behind the average following delays earlier in the growing season. Although leaf drop was active across much of the growing region toward the end of the month, overall progress remained behind normal in the 18 major soybean-producing States. Harvest was underway in most States by September 27, with the most progress evident in the Delta. Producers had harvested 15 percent of the Nation's crop by October 4, thirteen points behind last year and 21 points behind the average. Overall, 67 percent of the soybean crop was rated in good to excellent condition on October 4, compared with 69 percent on August 30 and 57 percent last year. Excessively wet weather across the Delta led to a decline in soybean conditions toward the end of the month as producers in Arkansas and Mississippi reported sprouting and seed rot in several fields. By October 4, producers in the 4 major sunflower-producing States had begun harvesting this year's crop. Nationally, 5 percent of the crop was harvested, 2 points ahead of last year but 2 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest was most advanced in Colorado where producers had harvested 20 percent of their acreage. Peanut harvest was underway in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina by September 13, with 3 percent of the Nation's crop dug, 1 point ahead of last year and the 5-year average. Wet weather during the week ending September 20 stalled harvest in Georgia, the largest peanut-producing State. By October 4, harvest had begun in all of the major peanut producing States. At 16 percent complete, progress was 9 points behind last year and 7 points behind the average. Overall, 70 percent of the peanut crop was rated in good to excellent condition on October 4, a slight decline from the beginning of September but 5 points better than ratings last year. By September 13, boll set was complete in all of the 15 major cotton-producing States except Alabama and Texas, where unfavorable weather conditions had slowed crop development. Bolls were opened in 35 percent of the crop, slightly behind last year and 1 week behind the 5-year average. Harvest was underway in several States by September 20, but was most advanced in Arizona. Nationally, 7 percent of this year's crop was harvested, 2 points behind last year and 4 points behind the average. The harvest pace was slow as the month progressed, advancing just 3 points from September 20 to October 4. A lack of heat units and the need for drier weather held crop development to a minimum in the Northern High Plains of Texas, while excessive rainfall delayed harvest in the Blacklands and East Texas. Despite active crop development during the latter part of the month in other States, cotton acreage with opened bolls reached 68 percent Nationwide on October 4, one week behind the average. Producers had harvested 10 percent of their crop, 5 points behind last year and 11 points behind normal. Overall, 47 percent of the cotton crop was rated in good to excellent condition on October 4, a 4 point decline from September 6 and 3 points below ratings last year. Significant declines in crop condition were evident during late September as abnormally wet weather settled into Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi causing boll rot, hard lock, and sprouting in some fields, while below average temperatures in Kansas left plants without enough heat units to allow for normal boll development. Producers had begun digging sugarbeets by September 20, with 6 percent of the 2009 crop harvested, 1 point ahead of last year but on par with the 5-year average. In North Dakota, the harvest pace fell slightly behind normal during the week ending September 27. By October 4, twenty percent of the crop was harvested with progress in Minnesota and North Dakota, the two largest sugarbeet-producing States, 6 points behind the average. Crop Comments Corn: Acreage updates were made in several States based on administrative data, bringing total planted area to 86.4 million acres, down 1 percent from June. Area harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 79.3 million acres, down 1 percent from the September forecast. The October 1 corn objective yield data indicate a record high number of stalks and ears per acre for the combined 10 objective yield States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin). All objective yield States, except Missouri, recorded record high ear counts. As of October 4, seventy percent of the corn acreage was rated in good to excellent condition in the 18 major corn-producing States, up 1 percentage point from last month and 9 points above last year. Crop conditions declined from last month across the northern tier of the Great Plains and Corn Belt where light frost was reported in late September. However, temperatures were not considered low enough to terminate crop growth. Conditions were mostly unchanged or improved across the rest of the Corn Belt and Great Plains as warm, dry weather during much of September helped push the late-developing corn crop towards maturity. On October 4, fifty-seven percent of the acreage was rated mature or beyond, 27 points below the 5-year average. Illinois was 52 points behind their average while Minnesota, North Dakota, and Michigan were at least 39 points behind. Ten percent of the acreage was harvested by October 4, fifteen points behind the average pace. Early season harvest activities were underway in all States, except North Dakota, and all States were progressing behind normal, except Colorado. States furthest behind include Tennessee, down 51 points; Illinois, down 36 points; Missouri, down 35 points; and Kentucky, down 31 points from their 5-year averages. Sorghum: Production is forecast at 364 million bushels, down 7 percent from last month and down 23 percent from last year. Based on administrative information, acreage changes were made in several States. Planted area is 6.62 million acres, down 5 percent from the previous forecast and down 20 percent from 2008. All of the major producing sorghum States are at or below last year's levels. This is the third lowest planted acreage on record. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 5.68 million acres, down 5 percent from last month and down 22 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yield is forecast at 64.0 bushels per acre, down 1.5 bushels from September and down 1.0 bushel from last year. As of October 4, harvest had begun in all of the top 11 producing States except New Mexico. In these States, the sorghum crop was 55 percent mature, slightly behind last year and 13 points behind the 5-year average. Harvest progress had reached 35 percent, compared with 39 percent at the same time last year and 44 percent for the 5-year average. With the exception of Colorado, all of the major sorghum-producing States were behind the normal harvest pace, with Arkansas, Illinois, and Missouri the furthest behind. As of October 4, crop condition was rated 49 percent good to excellent, compared with 54 percent at the same time last year. Yield forecasts are at or above last month's levels in all of the major sorghum-producing States except Texas and Mississippi. The yield forecast in Kansas, the largest sorghum-producing State increased 1.0 bushel from September. Producers in Texas, the second largest producing State, expect a yield of 44.0 bushels per acre, down 3.0 bushels from last month and down 8.0 bushels from last year. Rice: Production is forecast at 221 million cwt, up 1 percent from the September forecast and up 8 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 3.10 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 4 percent from 2008. As of October 1, the U.S. yield is forecast at 7,115 pounds per acre, up 64 pounds from the September 1 forecast and 269 pounds above the 2008 average yield of 6,846 pounds per acre. Expected yields increased from the previous month in California, Louisiana, Missouri, and Texas. The Arkansas forecasted yield of 6,850 pounds per acre was unchanged from the September 1 forecast, while Mississippi's expected yield is down 200 pounds per acre from the previous month. Record yields are forecast in Louisiana, Missouri, and Texas. As of October 4, sixty-two percent of the U.S. acreage was harvested, 5 percentage points behind the same time last year and 16 percentage points behind the five-year average. Arkansas, Mississippi, and Missouri were all running over 25 percentage points behind their 5-year average pace mainly due to late spring planting. Sixty percent of the acreage was rated in good to excellent condition on October 4, compared to 62 percent rated in these two categories at the same time last year. Soybeans: Area for harvest is forecast at 76.6 million acres, down slightly from last month but up 3 percent from 2008. Harvested area, if realized, will be the largest on record. The September objective yield data for the combined eleven major soybean-producing States (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota) indicate a slightly higher pod count compared with last year. Compared with final counts for 2008, pod counts are up in eight States, with increases of more than 100 pods per 18 square feet in Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota. The largest increase from 2008's final pod count is expected in Missouri, up 293 pods per 18 square feet. As of October 4, seventy-nine percent of acreage was dropping leaves or beyond, 2 points behind last year's pace and 9 points behind the 5-year average. Progress was behind normal in all major soybean-producing States. The percent of acreage dropping leaves was 10 points or more behind normal in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Wisconsin. Harvest progress, at 15 percent complete, was 13 points behind last year's pace and 21 points behind normal. As of October 4, sixty-seven percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated in good to excellent condition, 10 percentage points above the same week in 2008. Compared with last month, crop conditions improved in Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Ohio, but declined or were unchanged across the rest of the major growing region. Louisiana and Mississippi showed the largest declines, down 8 and 19 percentage points from last month, respectively. If realized, the forecasted yield in Alabama, Georgia, and Nebraska will be a record high and the forecasted yield in Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania will tie the previous record high. Sunflower: The first production forecast for 2009 is 2.98 billion pounds, down 13 percent from 2008 but up 4 percent from 2007. Area planted, at 2.03 million acres, is down 3 percent from the June estimate and down 19 percent from last year. Sunflower growers expect to harvest 1.94 million acres, down 3 percent from June and down 19 percent from the 2008 acreage. The October yield forecast, at 1,538 pounds per acre, is 109 pounds higher than last year. As of October 1, higher yields are expected in five of the top seven sunflower-producing States, with only Nebraska and Texas farmers expecting lower yields compared with last year. In North Dakota, the largest sunflower-producing State, the yield is forecast at 1,557 pounds per acre, up 158 pounds from the 2008 yield. As of October 4, seventy-four percent of the sunflower crop in North Dakota was rated good to excellent, compared with 62 percent at the same time last year. Rainfall and below normal temperatures during the growing season across the northern Great Plains slowed progress as development of the sunflower crop generally lagged behind normal throughout the season. As of October 4, harvest progress was behind normal in Colorado, Kansas, and South Dakota, but was slightly ahead of normal in North Dakota. Peanuts: Production is forecast at 3.64 billion pounds, down 1 percent from the September 1 forecast and down 30 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 1.08 million acres, unchanged from September but down 28 percent from 2008. Yields are expected to average 3,363 pounds per acre, down 34 pounds from last month and down 63 pounds from the 2008 record yield of 3,426 pounds per acre. However, this would be the second highest U.S. yield on record if realized. Production in the Southeast States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina) is expected to total 2.79 billion pounds, down less than 1 percent from September and down 27 percent from last year. Expected area for harvest, at 825,000 acres, is unchanged from September but down 25 percent from 2008. Yields in the region are expected to average 3,384 pounds per acre, down 17 pounds from last month and 48 pounds below last year. Yields are forecast lower than last year in all Southeast States except for Georgia. Virginia-North Carolina production is forecast at 272 million pounds, up 2 percent from the September 1 forecast but down 38 percent from 2008. Expected area for harvest, at 78,000 acres, is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 36 percent from last year. The average yield is forecast at 3,485 pounds per acre, up 85 pounds from the September forecast but 146 pounds less than the 2008 average. Harvest was underway in both States as of October 4. Southwest peanut production (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) is expected to total 575 million pounds, down 5 percent from last month and down 38 percent from 2008. Expected acreage for harvest, at 179,000, is unchanged from last month but down 36 percent from last year. Yields in the region are expected to average 3,213 pounds per acre, down 166 pounds from the September forecast and down 97 pounds from the previous year. Canola: The first production forecast for 2009 is 1.50 billion pounds, up 4 percent from 2008. Area planted, at 831,000 acres, is down 2 percent from the June estimate and down 18 percent from last year. Canola farmers expect to harvest 807,500 acres, down 2 percent from June and down 18 percent from 2008. The October yield forecast, at 1,861 pounds per acre, is 400 pounds above last year's yield. If realized, this will be the highest U.S. yield on record. The yield in North Dakota, the largest canola-producing State, is forecast at a record high 1,900 pounds per acre, up 440 pounds from last year. Crop development in North Dakota progressed behind last year and the 5-year average pace due to late planting and below normal temperatures during the growing season. Harvest lagged behind the normal pace during August and September but reached 94 percent complete by October 4. Cotton: Upland cotton harvested, at 7.59 million acres, is virtually unchanged from last month but up 3 percent from a last year. American-Pima harvested area, at 146,200, was carried forward from the August forecast. During the early part of September, producers in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia) battled periods of heavy rain showers delaying fieldwork and crop progress. Late in September, cool and clear conditions allowed the fields to dry out, but producers worried about receiving the necessary heat units for the late-developing crop. By the end of the month, harvest was underway in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia, but had not started in Georgia and Alabama, well behind the 5-year average. On October 4, the crop was rated in mostly fair to good condition. Objective yield measurements in Georgia showed boll counts to be the second largest in the last 10 years. In North Carolina, boll counts are the third largest in the last 10 years. The upland cotton crop in the Delta received much needed sunshine during the first week of September and defoliation began in early planted fields. By mid-September, the region was hit with excessive amounts of rain. Throughout the region, producers expressed concerned with boll rot due to the wet, cool conditions. In Louisiana, harvest was underway by the middle of the month. While in the remaining Delta region, harvest was just beginning by the end of the month, well behind the 5-year average. The crop was rated in mostly fair to good condition throughout the region. In Arkansas, boll weights are forecasted to be lowest in the last 5 years. Objective yield data in Mississippi showed boll counts to be slightly higher than the average for the last 5 years. In South Texas, harvest neared completion by the middle of September. In the Panhandle of Texas, the crop received much needed moisture during the first week of September. Cool, dry weather moved into the region during the middle of the month and producers are concerned about receiving the heat units need to mature the late-developing crop. By month's end, the crop was progressing behind normal and rated in mostly fair to good condition. Objective yield measurements in Texas showed the bolls per acre to be the second lowest in the last 5 years but boll weights to be the second largest in the last 5 years. By the end of month in Oklahoma and Kansas, the crop was rated in mostly fair to good condition with harvest underway in Oklahoma. In Arizona, upland harvest got underway during the first week of September and continued throughout the month with no major weather delays. On October 4, the crop in Arizona was rated in mostly good to excellent condition. In California, defoliation of the crop began in mid-September and harvest got underway by the end of the month. The crop is rated in mostly fair to good condition. The American-Pima production forecast was carried forward from the August forecast, at 367,000 bales, down 15 percent from last year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 1,025 pounds per harvested acre, down 21 pounds from last year. Ginnings totaled 293,050 running bales prior to October 1, compared with 797,400 running bales ginned prior to the same date last year and 1,566,300 running bales in 2007. Alfalfa and Alfalfa Mixtures: Production is forecast at 72.0 million tons, down 1.4 percent from the August forecast but up 3.4 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 3.43 tons per acre, down 0.05 ton from August but up 0.11 ton from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 21.0 million acres, unchanged from August but up slightly from the previous year's acreage. States in the southern Great Plains and much of the Southwest forecast no yield change from August. Eight of the major-producing States, including Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Utah, and Wisconsin, forecast higher yields than August. The largest yield increase is forecast in Pennsylvania where they are expecting a record high yield of 3.7 tons. Other States with record high yields include Nebraska, Nevada, and Oregon. Other Hay: Production is forecast at 80.8 million tons, up 2 percent from the August forecast and up 6 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 2.06 tons per acre, up 0.05 ton from August and up 0.11 ton from last year. This forecast matches 2004 as the record high yield. Harvested area, at 39.2 million acres, is unchanged from the August forecast but up 113,000 acres from 2008. Compared with the previous forecast, growers in the Corn Belt and central Great Plains are expecting higher yields. Producers in Nebraska, Mississippi, Missouri, and Pennsylvania are expecting record high yields. Other hay yields are forecast to be lower in eight of the major-producing States, including California, Idaho, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, and Oregon. The largest yield reduction from the August forecast occurred in Louisiana, New York, Ohio, and Oregon, with each State down 0.03 tons. Dry Beans: U.S. dry edible bean production is forecast at 25.2 million cwt for 2009, up 3 percent from the August forecast but 2 percent below 2008. Planted area is forecast at 1.53 million acres, up 3 percent from the August forecast and the previous year's estimate. Harvested area is forecast at 1.44 million acres, 3 percent above the August forecast but 1 percent below the previous year's harvested acreage. The average U.S. yield is forecast at 1,754 pounds per acre, an increase of 4 pounds from August's forecast but 14 pounds below the 2008 yield. Production is expected to be higher than 2008 in 11 of the 18 producing States. As of the first week in October, only 41 percent of the North Dakota crop was harvested, which is behind last year and the 5-year average. Late planting and below normal temperatures during most of the growing season slowed crop development and delayed harvest. The dry edible bean crop condition was rated 11 percent very poor to poor, 31 percent fair, 50 percent good and 8 percent excellent. In Minnesota, as of the last week of September, 52 percent of dry beans were harvested, compared to 66 percent last year. Winter Potatoes: California's winter potato production for 2009 is estimated at 2.13 million cwt, down 1 percent from the April estimate and 16 percent below 2008. Planted area in California remains unchanged from April, at 9,000 acres, but is down 18 percent from 2008. Harvested area, at 8,700 acres, is down 3 percent from April and 21 percent below last year. Average yield is 245 cwt per acre, up 5 cwt from the April estimate and 15 cwt above last year. Producers reported good crop quality with minor disease and pests issues. Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco production for 2009 is forecast at 814 million pounds, 1 percent above the September forecast and up 2 percent from 2008. Area harvested is forecast at 353,290 acres, virtually unchanged from last year but up 2 percent from the September forecast. The yield for 2009 is expected to average 2,304 pounds per acre, down 15 pounds from the previous forecast but 46 pounds greater than 2008. Flue-cured tobacco production is expected to total 516 million pounds, 2 percent above the previous forecast and 3 percent above last year. Growers plan to harvest 223,500 acres in 2009, up 2 percent from the September forecast but virtually unchanged from a year ago. Yield is expected to average 2,307 pounds per acre, 2 pounds above the last forecast and up 68 pounds from 2008. Yields in North Carolina and Georgia are expected to remain unchanged from the September forecast, at 2,400 and 1,500 pounds per acre, respectively. The average yield in South Carolina decreased 50 pounds from last month. Burley production is expected to total 215 million pounds, virtually unchanged from the September forecast but 7 percent above last year. Growers plan to harvest 101,600 acres, up 3 percent from the previous forecast and 4 percent above 2008. Yields are expected to average 2,115 pounds per acre, 45 pounds below last month but 48 pounds above a year ago. Average yields in Tennessee and Kentucky both decreased 50 pounds from a month ago, while burley yields in other States remained unchanged. Fire-cured tobacco production is expected to total 53.6 million pounds, down 2 percent from last month's forecast but 14 percent below 2008. Growers plan to harvest 16,150 acres, down 2 percent from the September forecast and down 13 percent from a year ago. The yield is expected to average 3,317 pounds per acre, up 25 pounds from last month but down 27 pounds from last year. Southern Maryland Belt tobacco production in Pennsylvania is expected to total 4.73 million pounds, unchanged from the September forecast but 25 percent above 2008. A total of 2,100 acres are expected to be harvested, unchanged from last month but 17 percent above a year ago. Average yield, at 2,250 pounds per acre, unchanged from the previous forecast but 150 pounds above last year. Dark air-cured tobacco is expected to total 17.5 million pounds, down 6 percent from last month and 31 percent below 2008. Growers plan to harvest 5,800 acres, down 5 percent from the September forecast and 32 percent below last year. Yields are expected to average 3,017 pounds per acre, down 47 pounds from the previous forecast but 36 pounds above a year ago. All Cigar type production is expected to total 7.69 million pounds, unchanged from the previous forecast but 9 percent below last year. Growers of cigar type tobacco plan to harvest 4,140 acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 19 percent from 2008. Overall, yield is expected to average 1,858 pounds per acre, up 9 pounds from September and 199 pounds above a year ago. Sugarbeets: Production of sugarbeets for the 2009 crop year is forecast at 30.1 million tons, 1 percent below the September 1 forecast but up 15 percent from last year. Production forecasts remained unchanged from September in all estimating States except Minnesota and North Dakota where slight decreases in expected yield led to decreased production. Growers expect to harvest 1.16 million acres, unchanged from the September 1 forecast but 15 percent above last year. Expected yield is forecast at a record high 26.8 tons per acre, down 0.2 ton from September but up 0.1 ton from 2008. Record high yields are also forecast in Colorado, Montana, Oregon, and Wyoming. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast at 28.5 million tons, up 2 percent from the September 1 forecast and up 3 percent from 2008. Producers intend to harvest 852,700 acres for sugar and seed during the 2009 crop season, unchanged from last month but 15,300 acres below last year. Expected yield is forecast at 33.4 tons per acre, up 0.6 ton from the previous forecast and up 1.6 tons from 2008. Changes in production are a result of yield increases in Louisiana and Texas where timely rainfall has led to late-season crop growth and improved conditions. Grapefruit: The initial forecast of the 2009-10 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.21 million tons, down 9 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization. All three estimating States showed a decrease in production from the previous season. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 19.8 million boxes (842,000 tons), 9 percent lower than last season. The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 5.80 million boxes (247,000 tons), down 12 percent from the previous year. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 14.0 million boxes (595,000 tons), is 7 percent lower than last season. If realized, this will be the lowest Florida grapefruit crop since the 1944-45 season, other than the hurricane-reduced 2004-05 and 2005-06 crops. The number of bearing trees has been declining over the past decade. Size and drop of both varieties are expected to be below average at harvest. In Texas, grapefruit production is forecast at 5.30 million boxes (212,000 tons), 4 percent lower than the previous season. The California grapefruit production forecast is 4.70 million boxes (157,000 tons), down 16 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization. Lemons: The initial forecast for the 2009-10 U.S. lemon crop is 855,000 tons, down 10 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization. The California forecast, at 20.0 million boxes (760,000 tons), is down 9 percent from the previous year's crop. Last season's harvest concluded in the coastal areas during September, as harvest of the new season crop began in the desert region. Harvest was delayed slightly and fruit sizes have been lighter than normal. Fruit quality was reported as good. Lemon production in Arizona is forecast at 2.50 million boxes (95,000 tons), down 17 percent from last season. Harvest began in early September and fruit was reported to be slightly larger than expected with smooth texture. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.00 million boxes (45,000 tons), down 13 percent from last season's final production. Bearing trees are down nearly 2 percent from last season and fruit per tree is down 30 percent. Fruit drop is projected to be below average at harvest. Tangerines and Mandarins: The initial U.S. tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 509,000 tons, up 15 percent from the 2008-09 season. All 3 estimating States are forecasting an increase in production from last year. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast is 7.00 million boxes (263,000 tons), an increase of 4 percent from last season. Bearing acreage continued to increase. Satsuma mandarin harvest was expected to begin in October. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.90 million boxes (233,000 tons), up 27 percent from the previous season. Fruit per tree is well above average for Fallglo, Sunburst and Honey tangerine varieties. Fruit size is projected to be below average for all varieties. Drop is expected to be below average for Fallglo and Honey varieties but near the maximum for Sunburst tangerines. Production in Arizona is forecast at 350,000 boxes (13,000 tons), up 40 percent from last season. Florida Citrus: Weekly rainfall totals during September were variable, ranging from seven inches to trace amounts. Daily high temperatures were in the upper 80s to lower 90s most days, with lows reaching the 50s by the end of the month. Generally, trees were in good condition. However, in poorly-cared-for groves, trees were declining quickly due to citrus Tristeza virus, young tree decline, and canker. Grove practices during the month included applying herbicides, mowing in preparation for harvest, and young tree care. Dead trees were removed and burned. Grove caretakers also continued to survey groves for greening, treat trees for citrus psyllid control, and remove infected trees. Growers were irrigating in areas as needed. California Citrus: The Valencia orange harvest was winding down in the San Joaquin Valley. New season navel oranges continued to develop in size and some growers began preparing for Gibberellin treatments. Satsuma mandarins were developing well and harvest was expected to begin soon. The lemon harvest neared completion along the coastal region, as harvesting began in the desert region. Normal spraying and maintenance continued in orchards. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: Light rain fell across the northern and central regions of the State in mid-September, which is unusual for this time of the year in California. No damage to the grape crop was reported from the wet conditions. Hot temperatures accelerated wine grape maturation. Raisin, table, and wine grape harvests continued in the San Joaquin Valley. Harvesting of wine grapes also continued along the Central and North coasts, primarily of Pinot Noir and Chardonnay varieties. Apple harvest continued in the San Joaquin Valley of Gala, Granny Smith, Fuji, and Braeburn varieties. Peach, nectarine, plum, and fig harvests also continued in the San Joaquin Valley. The prune harvest was complete. Harvesting of Bartlett pears continued and the Asian pear harvest got underway, with Yali and Shinko varieties being picked. Pomegranates continued to develop in size and color, as harvesting of Foothill and Early Wonderful varieties was ongoing in the San Joaquin Valley. Some strawberries were picked in Southern California fields, though extensive Lygus bug infestations were reported. Harvested strawberry fields were plowed and prepared for fall season berries. Normal spraying and maintenance continued in orchards and vineyards, which included the initial applications of fall fertilizer for fruit trees. The almond harvest continued at a slower pace during September in both the San Joaquin and Sacramento valleys. Hulling and stockpile fumigations continued for the almond crop. Shaking was complete for the Nonpareil variety, while some shaking remained underway for other varieties. Sweeping, gathering, and delivering activities continued. The walnut and pistachio harvests increased in the Central Valley. Quality looked good, though some growers showed concern over lower yields, likely caused by the March frost. Apples: The final 2009 U.S. apple production forecast is set at 10.02 billion pounds, down 1 percent from August but up 3 percent from 2008. Increases in production from August were shown in Michigan, New York, and West Virginia, while production decreased in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Washington. The production forecast in Virginia was unchanged from August. All other State forecasts were carried forward from August. Production in the Western States (AZ, CA, CO, ID, OR, UT, and WA) is forecast at 6.16 billion pounds, down 3 percent from August and down 4 percent from 2008. Washington production, which makes up 56 percent of the U.S. total, is forecast at 5.60 billion pounds, down 3 percent from the previous forecast and last year. Overall, production is expected to be lower than last year due to warmer weather during the summer months. Scattered frost and hail damage were also reported by some growers. Production in the Eastern States (CT, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, NC, PA, RI, VT, VA, and WV) is forecast at 2.41 billion pounds, unchanged from August but down slightly from 2008. The apple forecast in New York, at 1.29 billion pounds, is 2 percent higher than the August forecast and 3 percent higher than the 2008 total production estimate. Pennsylvania's forecast, at 485 million pounds, is slightly lower than August but 10 percent higher than 2008. Some growers reported hail and frost damage during the spring season. The harvest was 58 percent complete by the end of September. Virginia's forecast, at 200 million pounds, is unchanged from August but down 13 percent from last year. The growing season began with mild winter temperatures and normal precipitation during spring. Summer rainfall and temperatures were reported as average. Fruit sizing was reported as good and growers anticipate a good crop. The apple forecast in North Carolina, at 100 million pounds, is 13 percent below August and 39 percent lower than last year. The apple crop was severely affected by a large hail storm that went through Henderson County, which has the majority of apples produced in the State. The West Virginia forecast is 90.0 million pounds, up 1 percent from August and up 11 percent from 2008. Growers indicated the crop was progressing normally with no significant reports of damage. The production forecast for the Central States (IL, IN, IA, MI, MN, MO, OH, TN, and WI) is 1.45 billion pounds, a 7 percent increase from August and 60 percent higher than 2008. Michigan's production forecast is 1.15 billion pounds, up 10 percent from August and 92 percent above last year's frost reduced crop. Pecans: Production is forecast at 309 million pounds (utilized, in-shell basis), up 59 percent from last year's crop but 20 percent below the 2007 production year. All States in the pecan estimating program have a higher production forecast than last year, with the exception of Kansas. Nationally, improved varieties are forecasted to produce 264 million pounds or 85 percent of the total, while native and seedling varieties, at 45.5 million pounds, make up the remaining 15 percent of production. The 2009 crop is expected to be larger than last year's mainly due to the alternate bearing pattern typical of pecans. In Georgia, production is forecast at 90.0 million pounds, 29 percent above last year. This is the "up" year in the alternate bearing cycle, but frequent rain throughout the summer produced widespread disease problems. Fungicide applications were frequently interrupted by showers and cool cloudy conditions. New Mexico's forecast, at 76.0 million pounds, is up 77 percent from last year and 3 percent above the 2007 production year. Pecan acreage continues to increase in the Rio Grande Valley, resulting in increasing bearing acres. Crop conditions were reported as good to excellent with an average nut set. The Arizona forecast is 24.0 million pounds, 37 percent above last year. Some growers reported wind and hail damage. Oklahoma's crop is forecast at 20.0 million pounds, a 300 percent increase from 2008. The Alabama crop is expected to total 13.0 million pounds, up 63 percent from the final 2008 production estimate. Managed orchards throughout the state were reported to have a very heavy nut set. In Louisiana, the crop is forecast at 8.00 million pounds, up 60 percent from 2008 but down 43 percent from 2007. Typically, after hurricane damage, native and seedling varieties take several years to return to previous yields, this is the case after the hurricanes of 2008. Grapes: U.S. grape production is forecast at 7.02 million tons, virtually unchanged from the August forecast but down 4 percent from last year. California leads the U.S. in grape production with 89 percent of the total. Washington and New York are the next largest producing States, with 6 percent and 2 percent, respectively. California=s all grape forecast, at 6.25 million tons, is unchanged from August. The Washington all grape forecast of 395,000 tons is also unchanged, whereas New York growers expect to harvest 135,000 tons, 4 percent lower than the August forecast. California=s wine type grape production is expected to total 3.40 million tons, 54 percent of California=s total grape crop. The production forecast for wine type varieties is up 3 percent from the August forecast. Overall, bunch counts are up from 2008, with the most significant increases in Chardonnay and red wine grape varieties. California=s raisin type grape production is forecast at 2.00 million tons, 32 percent of California=s total grape crop. The raisin type grape forecast is down 5 percent from the August forecast. Although recent weather has been favorable for crop development, wet weather in early-summer resulted in some bunch rot and mildew problems. Harvest of the raisin crop began earlier than normal and quality and sugar levels were reported as good. California=s table type grape production is forecast at 850,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast. Late table grape varieties continued to be harvested for fresh use in September. Good overall fruit quality was reported. Washington=s wine grape production is forecast at 155,000 tons, unchanged from the August forecast. If realized, this will be Washington's largest wine grape crop on record, surpassing last year=s record high crop. The increase in production from last year is due primarily to more acreage coming into production. The juice type grape forecast, at 240,000 tons, is unchanged from the previous forecast. Growing conditions have been favorable for the grape crop this season. Harvest was progressing well and the fruit was yielding good sugar levels. New York's grape production, at 135,000 tons, is 4 percent lower than the August forecast and the lowest production since 1998. In the Lake Erie grape region, a late May frost damaged many primary and secondary buds and caused leaf damage to many vines. Harvest began behind schedule because cool temperatures and rainy conditions slowed fruit development and contributed to disease and mildew. Sugar content of harvested grapes has been low. Fruit ripening in the Finger Lakes Region was about two weeks behind normal due to cool, wet weather. Good fruit quality was reported. Michigan=s grape production is forecast at 99,000 tons, up 1 percent from the August forecast. Cooler than normal temperatures during the growing season have resulted in delayed crop development and foliar decline. Disease pressure has been low but sugar levels for Pinot Noir and Riesling varieties were measuring lower than normal. Niagara variety harvest began at the end of September and harvest of Concord grapes began the first week of October. Pennsylvania=s grape production is forecast at 70,000 tons, down 5 percent from the previous forecast. Although insect presence has been low so far this season, disease pressure has been high. Many grape clusters were not full. Papayas: Hawaii fresh papaya production is estimated at 2.31 million pounds for August 2009, down 18 percent from July and 3 percent lower than August 2008. Total crop area for August is estimated at 2,070 acres, down slightly from July and 10 percent below August 2008. Harvested area totaled 1,310 acres, also down slightly from the previous month and 3 percent lower than last year. Weather during August was mostly dry in the major papaya growing areas. Heavy rains earlier in the year caused gaps in the fruit columns, resulting in reduced production for the month. Field preparation for new plantings continued. Young plantings were progressing well and the crop was in fair to good condition. Prunes (Dried Plums): California's 2009 prune production forecast is 170,000 dried tons, up 32 percent from the 129,000 tons in 2008 and 205 percent above the 2007 crop. Weather conditions have been ideal, resulting in excellent bloom, fruit set and good sized fruit. Growers were busy thinning fruit due to the large set. Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecast Field Crop Survey Procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between September 24 and October 6 to gather information on expected yield as of October 1. The objective yield surveys for corn, cotton, and soybeans were conducted in the major producing States that usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. Randomly selected plots were revisited to make current counts. The counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, plant counts are recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number of ears, bolls, or pods and their weight. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet, and personal interviewers. Approximately 15,000 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields. Orange Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the October 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produced about 76 percent of the U.S. production last season. In August and September 2009, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree were determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis: in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Field Crop Estimating Procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Field Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecasts. Orange Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in Arizona, California, and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These four States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published October 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The October 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. Estimates of planted acres for spring planted crops are subject to revision in the August Crop Production report if conditions altered the planting intentions since the mid-year survey. Planted acres may also be revised for cotton, peanuts, and rice in the September Crop Production report each year; spring wheat, Durum wheat, barley, and oats only in the Small Grains Annual report at the end of September; and all other spring planted crops in the October Crop Production report. Revisions to planted acres will only be made when special survey data, administrative data, such as Farm Service Agency program "sign up" data, or remote sensing data are available. Harvested acres may be revised any time a production forecast is made if there is strong evidence that the intended harvested area has changed since the last forecast. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the October 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the October 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the October 1 corn for grain production forecast is 3.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.4 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the differences between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using corn again as an example, changes between the October 1 forecast and the final estimate during the last 20 years have averaged 197 million bushels, ranging from 3 million bushels to 624 million bushels. The October 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times. This does not imply that the October 1 corn forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of October 1 Crop Production Forecasts -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Root Mean : 20-Year Record of : : Square Error : Differences Between Forecast : : : : and Final Estimate : :------------------------------------------------------- Crop :Unit : : 90 : Quantity : Years : :Percent: Percent :------------------------------------ : : :Confidence: : : :Below:Above : : : Interval :Average:Smallest:Largest:Final:Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ------ Million ------ Number : : Corn for Grain :Bu : 3.1 5.4 197 3 624 9 11 Sorghum for Grain :Bu : 6.0 10.3 20 * 105 9 11 Rice :Cwt : 2.7 4.7 4 0 13 10 10 Soybeans for Beans:Bu : 2.3 4.0 45 3 103 11 9 Upland Cotton 1/ :Bales: 4.6 8.0 708 15 1,675 15 5 Dry Edible Beans :Cwt : 3.6 6.2 1 * 3 15 5 Oranges 1/ 2/ :Tons : 4.2 7.2 369 4 917 8 7 Oranges 1/ :Tons : 9.0 15.5 601 4 2,043 8 12 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Less than 1 million. 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. 2/ Excluding freeze and hurricane seasons. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Lance Honig, Chief.....................................................................(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Jacqueline Moore, Head.................................................................(202) 720-2127 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings................................................(202) 720-5944 Bryan Durham - Hay, Oats, Sorghum......................................................(202) 690-3234 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed.......................................(202) 720-9526 Anthony Prillaman - Peanuts, Rice......................................................(202) 720-7688 Nick Schauer - Wheat, Rye..............................................................(202) 720-8068 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops......................................(202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds...................................(202) 720-7369 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head.............................................................(202) 720-2127 Suzanne Avilla - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Tropical Fruits..............................(202) 720-5412 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.................................................(202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco.........................................................(202) 720-4288 Mike Jacobsen - Berries, Cranberries..................................................(202) 720-9085 Dawn Keen - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts..................................................................(202) 720-4215 Tierra Mobley - Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes...............................................(202) 720-4285 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans.............................................(202) 720-3250 Kim Ritchie - Hops.....................................................................(360) 902-1940 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer \ USDA Data Users' Meeting Monday, November 2, 2009 Crowne Plaza Hotel Chicago-Metro Chicago, Illinois 60661 (312) 829-5000 The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for data users. The purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs and seeks comments and input from data users. Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be included in the meeting. For registration details or additional information for the Data Users' Meeting, see the NASS homepage at www.nass.usda.gov/forum/ or contact Marjorie Taylor (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at marjorie_taylor@nass.usda.gov. This Data Users' Meeting precedes an Industry Outlook Conference that will be held at the same location on Tuesday, November 3, 2009. The Outlook Conference brings together analysts from various commodity sectors to discuss the outlook situation. For registration details or additional information for the Industry Outlook Meeting see the Livestock and Marketing Information Center (LMIC) homepage at www.lmic.info or contact Jim Robb at (720) 544-2941 or at robb@lmic.info.