Cr Pr 2-2 (3-10) Crop Production Washington, D.C. Released March 10, 2010, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Crop Production" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Special Note NASS is in the process of modifying report layouts in order to improve readability. This report issue is published using both layouts but all future issues will only be produced with the new layout, which is available on the NASS website: www.nass.usda.gov. This is the last issue using this layout. ******************************************************************************* Corn and Soybean Updates Survey respondents who reported corn acreage as not yet harvested in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin and survey respondents who reported soybean acreage as not yet harvested in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia during the surveys conducted in preparation for the Crop Production 2009 Summary were re-contacted between late January and early February to determine how many of the acres were harvested or still intended for harvest and to record the production from those acres. Based on this updated information, several changes were made to the estimates published in the Crop Production 2009 Summary. Because unharvested production is a component of on-farm stocks, changes were made to the December 1 on farm stocks levels comparable with the production adjustments as well. Respondents with unharvested corn in North Dakota and South Dakota will be interviewed at a later date. ******************************************************************************* All Orange Production Up 2 Percent from February The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2009-10 season is 8.10 million tons, up 2 percent from the February 1 forecast but down 12 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 131 million boxes (5.90 million tons), is up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 19 percent from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 68.0 million boxes (3.06 million tons), up 3 percent from February 1 but 20 percent lower than last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 63.0 million boxes (2.84 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 19 percent from the 2008-09 crop. The forecast of early, midseason, and navel oranges is raised due to increased utilization. In response to freezing temperatures in January, growers began harvesting their remaining fruit at an accelerated rate, moving fruit from the grove to the processing plants. Plants reported processing more fruit than normal during January and February. The California Valencia orange forecast is 17.0 million boxes (638,000 tons), up 13 percent from the previous forecast and up 21 percent from last season's final utilization. This brings California's all orange forecast to 57.0 million boxes, up 4 percent from the February 1 forecast and up 18 percent from the 2008-09 crop. Objective survey measurements taken during January and February indicated that fruit set per tree increased significantly compared with last year, while measured average fruit size increased slightly from the previous year. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2009-10 season is 1.53 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 2 percent from the February 1 forecast and down 8 percent from last season's final yield of 1.66 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.51 gallons per box, down 6 percent from last season's record yield of 1.60 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is expected to total 1.58 gallons per box, 10 percent lower than last year's final yield of 1.75 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationship this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on March 10, 2010. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Kathleen A. Merrigan Agricultural Statistics Board Acting Chairperson Lance Honig Contents Page Grains & Hay Corn Acres, Yield, and Production.....................5 Corn, Stocks..........................................5 Oilseeds Soybeans, Acres, Yield, and Production................5 Soybeans, Stocks......................................5 Citrus Fruits Grapefruit............................................6 Lemons................................................6 Oranges...............................................6 Tangelos..............................................6 Tangerines and Mandarins..............................6 Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Sugarcane.............................................4 Crop Comments...............................................15 Crop Summary.................................................7 Information Contacts........................................18 Reliability of Production Data in this Report...............17 Weather Maps................................................13 Weather Summary.............................................14 Sugarcane: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use, State, and United States, 2008-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use : Area Harvested : Yield 1/ : Production 1/ and :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 : 2008 : 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres ----- Tons ----- --- 1,000 Tons -- : For Sugar : FL : 384.0 372.0 32.9 36.1 12,634 13,429 HI 2/ : 20.4 19.7 69.7 71.0 1,422 1,399 LA 2/ : 380.0 390.0 28.3 31.0 10,754 12,090 TX 2/ : 37.2 39.0 35.5 35.0 1,321 1,365 : US : 821.6 820.7 31.8 34.5 26,131 28,283 : For Seed : FL : 17.0 18.0 36.5 36.3 621 653 HI 2/ : 2.4 2.0 30.0 30.0 72 60 LA 2/ : 25.0 35.0 28.3 31.0 708 1,085 TX 2/ : 2.0 2.0 35.5 35.0 71 70 : US : 46.4 57.0 31.7 32.8 1,472 1,868 : For Sugar : and Seed : FL : 401.0 390.0 33.1 36.1 13,255 14,082 HI 2/ : 22.8 21.7 65.5 67.2 1,494 1,459 LA 2/ : 405.0 425.0 28.3 31.0 11,462 13,175 TX 2/ : 39.2 41.0 35.5 35.0 1,392 1,435 : US : 868.0 877.7 31.8 34.4 27,603 30,151 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2009 Summary" released January 12, 2010. Corn: Area Planted For All Purposes, Area Harvested, Yield, and Production for Grain, Selected States and United States, 2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Planted : Harvested : Yield : Production State : : : : :----------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Acres ---- bushels 1,000 Bushels : IL : 12,000 11,800 174.0 2,053,200 MI : 2,350 2,090 148.0 309,320 MN : 7,600 7,150 174.0 1,244,100 WI : 3,850 2,930 153.0 448,290 : US : 86,482 79,620 164.9 13,130,632 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from "Crop Production 2009 Summary" released January 12, 2010. Soybean for Beans: Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production, Selected States and United States, 2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Planted : Harvested : Yield : Production State : : : : :----------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 Acres ---- bushels 1,000 Bushels : GA : 470 440 36.0 15,840 NC : 1,800 1,750 34.0 59,500 SC : 590 565 24.5 13,843 VA : 580 570 37.0 21,090 : US : 77,451 76,372 44.0 3,359,011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Updated from "Crop Production 2009 Summary" released January 12, 2010. Corn and Soybeans: Stocks by Position, Selected States and United States, December 1, 2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : On : Off : Total All State : Farms : Farms 2/ : Positions :----------------------------------------------------------- : Corn :----------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Bushels : IL : 1,190,000 679,455 1,869,455 MI : 195,000 50,900 245,900 MN : 930,000 275,746 1,205,746 WI : 285,000 101,280 386,280 : US : 7,425,000 3,488,676 10,913,676 : :----------------------------------------------------------- : Soybeans :----------------------------------------------------------- Unall* : 173,000 31,706 327,856 : US : 1,229,500 1,105,180 2,334,680 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * "Off farms unallocated" includes State data not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. "On farms unallocated" includes minor producing States' data not published separately. 1/ Updated from "Grains Stocks" released January 12, 2010. 2/ Included stocks at mills, elevators, warehouses, terminals, and processors. Citrus Fruits: Utilized Production by Crop, State, and United States, 2007-08, 2008-09 and Forecasted March 1, 2010 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized Production : Utilized Production : Boxes : Ton Equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------- : 2007-08 : 2008-09 : 2009-10 : 2007-08 : 2008-09 : 2009-10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 Boxes 2/ ----- ------- 1,000 Tons ------- Oranges : Early, Mid & : Navel 3/ : AZ 4/ : 230 150 9 5 CA 5/ : 45,000 34,500 40,000 1,688 1,294 1,500 FL : 83,500 84,600 68,000 3,758 3,807 3,060 TX 5/ : 1,600 1,300 1,310 68 55 56 US : 130,330 120,550 109,310 5,523 5,161 4,616 Valencia : AZ 4/ : 150 100 6 4 CA : 17,000 14,000 17,000 637 525 638 FL : 86,700 77,800 63,000 3,901 3,501 2,835 TX 5/ : 196 159 277 9 7 12 US : 104,046 92,059 80,277 4,553 4,037 3,485 All : AZ 4/ : 380 250 15 9 CA : 62,000 48,500 57,000 2,325 1,819 2,138 FL : 170,200 162,400 131,000 7,659 7,308 5,895 TX 5/ : 1,796 1,459 1,587 77 62 68 US : 234,376 212,609 189,587 10,076 9,198 8,101 Grapefruit : White : FL : 9,000 6,600 5,300 383 280 225 Colored : FL : 17,600 15,100 13,500 748 642 574 All : AZ 4/ : 100 25 3 1 CA 5/ : 5,200 5,600 4,200 174 188 141 FL : 26,600 21,700 18,800 1,131 922 799 TX 5/ : 6,000 5,500 5,490 240 220 220 US : 37,900 32,825 28,490 1,548 1,331 1,160 Tangerines and Manda: AZ 5/ 6/ : 400 250 350 15 9 13 CA 5/ 6/ : 6,700 6,700 8,200 251 251 308 FL : 5,500 3,850 4,000 261 183 190 US : 12,600 10,800 12,550 527 443 511 Lemons 5/ : AZ : 1,500 3,000 2,500 57 114 95 CA : 14,800 22,000 20,000 562 836 760 US : 16,300 25,000 22,500 619 950 855 Tangelos : FL : 1,500 1,150 900 68 52 41 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year. 2/ Net lbs. per box: oranges-AZ & CA-75, FL-90, TX-85; grapefruit-AZ & CA-67, FL-85, TX-80; lemons-76; tangelos-90; tangerines and mandarins-AZ & CA-75, FL-95. 3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in AZ and CA. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in FL and TX. Small quantities of tangerines in TX and Temples in FL. 4/ Estimates discontinued beginning with the 2009-10 crop year. 5/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 6/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2009-2010 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Acres : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3,567.0 3,113.0 Corn for Grain 2/ : 86,482.0 79,620.0 Corn for Silage : 5,605.0 Hay, All : 59,755.0 Alfalfa : 21,227.0 All Other : 38,528.0 Oats : 3,404.0 1,379.0 Proso Millet : 350.0 293.0 Rice : 3,135.0 3,103.0 Rye : 1,241.0 252.0 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 6,633.0 5,520.0 Sorghum for Silage : 254.0 Wheat, All : 59,133.0 49,868.0 Winter : 43,311.0 37,097.0 34,485.0 Durum : 2,554.0 2,428.0 Other Spring : 13,268.0 12,955.0 : Oilseeds : Canola : 827.0 814.0 Cottonseed 3/ : Flaxseed : 317.0 314.0 Mustard Seed : 51.5 49.8 Peanuts : 1,116.0 1,081.0 Rapeseed : 1.0 0.9 Safflower : 175.0 165.5 Soybeans for Beans : 77,451.0 76,372.0 Sunflower : 2,030.0 1,953.5 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All : 9,149.2 7,690.5 Upland : 9,007.5 7,552.0 Amer-Pima : 141.7 138.5 Sugarbeets : 1,183.2 1,145.3 Sugarcane : 877.7 Tobacco : 354.1 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 20.5 13.7 Dry Edible Beans : 1,537.5 1,463.0 Dry Edible Peas : 863.3 837.9 Lentils : 415.0 407.0 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 6.3 Hops : 39.7 Peppermint Oil : 69.8 Potatoes, All : 1,069.8 1,045.0 Winter : 9.0 8.7 Spring : 79.2 73.7 Summer : 44.5 43.0 Fall : 937.1 919.6 Spearmint Oil : 20.5 Sweet Potatoes : 109.6 97.7 Taro (HI) 4/ : 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Acreage is not estimated. 4/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2009-2010 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Yield : Production Crop :Units:------------------------------------------- : : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : ----- 1,000 ---- : : Grains & Hay : : Barley :Bu : 73.0 227,323 Corn for Grain :" : 164.9 13,130,632 Corn for Silage :Tons : 19.3 108,209 Hay, All :" : 2.47 147,442 Alfalfa :" : 3.35 71,030 All Other :" : 1.98 76,412 Oats :Bu : 67.5 93,081 Proso Millet :" : 33.7 9,865 Rice 2/ :Cwt : 7,085 219,850 Rye :Bu : 27.8 6,993 Sorghum for Grain :" : 69.4 382,983 Sorghum for Silage :Tons : 14.5 3,680 Wheat, All :Bu : 44.4 2,216,171 Winter :" : 44.2 1,522,718 Durum :" : 44.9 109,042 Other Spring :" : 45.1 584,411 : : Oilseeds : : Canola :Lbs : 1,811 1,474,130 Cottonseed 3/ :Tons : 4,178.0 Flaxseed :Bu : 23.6 7,423 Mustard Seed :Lbs : 991 49,364 Peanuts :" : 3,412 3,688,350 Rapeseed :" : 1,700 1,530 Safflower :" : 1,462 241,970 Soybeans for Beans :Bu : 44.0 3,359,011 Sunflower :Lbs : 1,554 3,036,460 : : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : : Cotton, All 2/ :Bales: 774 12,401.3 Upland 2/ :" : 763 12,011.0 Amer-Pima 2/ :" : 1,353 390.3 Sugarbeets :Tons : 25.8 29,519 Sugarcane :" : 34.4 30,151 Tobacco :Lbs : 2,325 823,290 : : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : : Austrian Winter Peas 2/ :Cwt : 1,328 182 Dry Edible Beans 2/ :" : 1,733 25,360 Dry Edible Peas 2/ :" : 2,045 17,137 Lentils 2/ :" : 1,440 5,859 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ :" : 874 : : Potatoes & Misc. : : Coffee (HI) :Lbs : 1,270 8,000 Hops :" : 2,383 94,677.9 Peppermint Oil :" : 91 6,379 Potatoes, All :Cwt : 413 431,425 Winter :" : 245 2,132 Spring :" : 289 21,321 Summer :" : 336 14,469 Fall :" : 428 393,503 Spearmint Oil :Lbs : 132 2,698 Sweet Potatoes :Cwt : 201 19,647 Taro (HI) 3/ :Lbs : 4,000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop year. 2/ Yield in pounds. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2009-2010 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area Planted : Area Harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Hectares : Grains & Hay : Barley : 1,443,530 1,259,800 Corn for Grain 2/ :34,998,400 32,221,420 Corn for Silage : 2,268,290 Hay, All 3/ : 24,182,250 Alfalfa : 8,590,350 All Other : 15,591,900 Oats : 1,377,560 558,070 Proso Millet : 141,640 118,570 Rice : 1,268,700 1,255,750 Rye : 502,220 101,980 Sorghum for Grain 2/ : 2,684,310 2,233,890 Sorghum for Silage : 102,790 Wheat, All 3/ :23,930,530 20,181,080 Winter :17,527,530 15,012,780 13,955,730 Durum : 1,033,580 982,590 Other Spring : 5,369,430 5,242,760 : Oilseeds : Canola : 334,680 329,420 Cottonseed 4/ : Flaxseed : 128,290 127,070 Mustard Seed : 20,840 20,150 Peanuts : 451,630 437,470 Rapeseed : 400 360 Safflower : 70,820 66,980 Soybeans for Beans :31,343,650 30,906,980 Sunflower : 821,520 790,560 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 3/ : 3,702,590 3,112,270 Upland : 3,645,250 3,056,220 Amer-Pima : 57,340 56,050 Sugarbeets : 478,830 463,490 Sugarcane : 355,200 Tobacco : 143,320 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 8,300 5,540 Dry Edible Beans : 622,210 592,060 Dry Edible Peas : 349,370 339,090 Lentils : 167,950 164,710 Wrinkled Seed Peas 4/ : : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 2,550 Hops : 16,080 Peppermint Oil : 28,250 Potatoes, All 3/ : 432,940 422,900 Winter : 3,640 3,520 Spring : 32,050 29,830 Summer : 18,010 17,400 Fall : 379,230 372,150 Spearmint Oil : 8,300 Sweet Potatoes : 44,350 39,540 Taro (HI) 5/ : 180 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop year. 2/ Area planted for all purposes. 3/ Total may not add due to rounding. 4/ Acreage is not estimated. 5/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2009-2010 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric Tons : Grains & Hay : Barley : 3.93 4,949,370 Corn for Grain : 10.35 333,533,420 Corn for Silage : 43.28 98,165,550 Hay, All 2/ : 5.53 133,757,130 Alfalfa : 7.50 64,437,330 All Other : 4.45 69,319,800 Oats : 2.42 1,351,070 Proso Millet : 1.89 223,730 Rice : 7.94 9,972,230 Rye : 1.74 177,630 Sorghum for Grain : 4.35 9,728,220 Sorghum for Silage : 32.48 3,338,440 Wheat, All 2/ : 2.99 60,314,290 Winter : 2.97 41,441,590 Durum : 3.02 2,967,640 Other Spring : 3.03 15,905,060 : Oilseeds : Canola : 2.03 668,650 Cottonseed 3/ : 3,790,220 Flaxseed : 1.48 188,550 Mustard Seed : 1.11 22,390 Peanuts : 3.82 1,673,010 Rapeseed : 1.91 690 Safflower : 1.64 109,760 Soybeans for Beans : 2.96 91,417,300 Sunflower : 1.74 1,377,320 : Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops : Cotton, All 2/ : 0.87 2,700,070 Upland : 0.86 2,615,090 Amer-Pima : 1.52 84,980 Sugarbeets : 57.78 26,779,190 Sugarcane : 77.01 27,352,530 Tobacco : 2.61 373,440 : Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils : Austrian Winter Peas : 1.49 8,260 Dry Edible Beans : 1.94 1,150,310 Dry Edible Peas : 2.29 777,320 Lentils : 1.61 265,760 Wrinkled Seed Peas 3/ : 39,640 : Potatoes & Misc. : Coffee (HI) : 1.42 3,630 Hops : 2.67 42,950 Peppermint Oil : 0.10 2,890 Potatoes, All 2/ : 46.27 19,569,110 Winter : 27.47 96,710 Spring : 32.43 967,100 Summer : 37.71 656,300 Fall : 47.96 17,849,000 Spearmint Oil : 0.15 1,220 Sweet Potatoes : 22.54 891,170 Taro (HI) 3/ : 1,810 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop year. 2/ Production may not add due to rounding. 3/ Yield is not estimated. Fruits and Nuts Summary: Production, United States, 2008-2010 (Domestic Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : Production Crop : Units :----------------------------------------- : : 2008 : 2009 : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1,000 : : Citrus 2/ : : Grapefruit : Tons : 1,548 1,331 1,160 Lemons : " : 619 950 855 Oranges : " : 10,076 9,198 8,101 Tangelos (FL) : " : 68 52 41 Tangerines and Mandarins : " : 527 443 511 : : Noncitrus : : Apples : Lbs : 9,609.3 9,953.6 Apricots : Tons : 81.6 68.3 Bananas (HI) : Lbs : 17,400.0 15,400.0 Grapes : Tons : 7,319.3 7,067.6 Olives (CA) : " : 66.8 42.8 Papayas (HI) : Lbs : 33,500.0 31,300.0 Peaches : Tons : 1,135.3 1,105.7 Pears : " : 869.9 936.2 Prunes, Dried (CA) : " : 129.0 157.0 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : " : 15.5 18.8 : : Nuts & Misc. : : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : Lbs : 1,630,000 1,390,000 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) : Tons : 32.0 47.0 Pecans (in-shell) : Lbs : 194,080 290,500 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) : Tons : 436.0 415.0 Maple Syrup : Gals : 1,912 2,327 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2009-10 season. 2/ Production years are 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10. Fruits and Nuts Summary: Production, United States, 2008-2010 (Metric Units) 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :-------------------------------------------------- : 2008 : 2009 : 2010 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Metric tons : Citrus 2/ : Grapefruit : 1,404,320 1,207,460 1,052,330 Lemons : 561,550 861,830 775,640 Oranges : 9,140,790 8,344,290 7,349,100 Tangelos (FL) : 61,690 47,170 37,190 Tangerines and Mandarins : 478,090 401,880 463,570 : Noncitrus : Apples : 4,358,710 4,514,880 Apricots : 74,040 61,980 Bananas (HI) : 7,890 6,990 Grapes : 6,639,920 6,411,660 Olives (CA) : 60,600 38,830 Papayas (HI) : 15,200 14,200 Peaches : 1,029,940 1,003,090 Pears : 789,110 849,320 Prunes, Dried (CA) : 117,030 142,430 Prunes & Plums (Ex CA) : 14,060 17,060 : Nuts & Misc. : Almonds (CA) (shelled) : 739,360 630,490 Hazelnuts (OR) (in-shell) : 29,030 42,640 Pecans (in-shell) : 88,030 131,770 Walnuts (CA) (in-shell) : 395,530 376,480 Maple Syrup : 9,560 11,630 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2010 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2009-10 season. 2/ Production years are 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10. February Weather Summary An odd weather regime, driven by El Niņo and a high-pressure block over eastern Canada and the northern Atlantic Ocean, persisted through the end of February. El Niņo contributed to an active sub-tropical jet stream, resulting in generally wet conditions from California into the Southeast. However, storm systems carried by the jet stream were prevented from quickly exiting the eastern United States by the high-pressure block, resulting in numerous slow-moving storms near the Atlantic Seaboard. The block also helped to drive cold air southward across the Plains, Midwest, and Southeast. Monthly temperatures generally ranged from 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal from the Plains into the Southeast, while above average values were noted in the Northwest and from the Great Lakes region into New England. Historic snowfall totals were noted during February in the Mid-Atlantic States and neighboring areas, while typically rare Deep South snow was observed on several occasions. On February 12, snow briefly covered at least a portion of all 48 contiguous states. In the Southeast, excessive moisture remained a concern with respect to the soft red winter wheat crop, which in some cases was already suffering due to late planting and poor establishment. Farther north, much of the Midwest experienced another cold, snowy month. At times during February, snow covered the entire Midwest, although coverage was deepest and most persistent in the western Corn Belt. Upper Midwestern livestock continued to endure a very difficult winter, which began in earnest with a pair of December blizzards. Meanwhile on the Plains, snow helped to insulate much of the hard red winter wheat crop, which continued to overwinter with no major concerns. On the southern Plains, February precipitation aided wheat which had been previously stressed by drier than normal conditions. Elsewhere, California received another burst of beneficial precipitation toward month's end, following a brief lull in storminess in early to mid-February. The Southwest also continued to receive drought-easing rain and snow. In contrast, unfavorably dry conditions and sub-par snow packs in much of the Northwest increased the likelihood of drought development and below average spring and summer runoff. February Agricultural Summary Abnormally cool temperatures blanketed much of the Nation during February. Due to a series of winter storm systems, average temperatures in several locations from eastern Texas through the Delta and Southeast fell to as many as 12 degrees below normal. Conversely, the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, Great Lakes, and northern Atlantic Coast continued to experience warmer than normal temperatures throughout the month, with recordings in Maine reaching as many as 12 degrees above average. While much of the country was unusually dry during February, portions of the Southwest, Texas, and several Atlantic Coast States received an abundance of precipitation. Elsewhere, below average moisture accumulation in areas of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains pushed the year-to-date deficit to 50 percent or more below normal. Wet weather and soggy field conditions across much of the South hampered fieldwork throughout the month, delaying the start of spring planting activities for some row crop producers. In Texas, corn and sorghum planting was underway in some regions but had yet to begin in others, leaving overall progress for both crops behind last year and the 5-year average. In areas of the Corn Belt, some remaining 2009 corn acreage was harvested as temperatures warmed slightly from January. Elsewhere in the Corn Belt, producers performed routine maintenance on farm equipment and finalized their planting intentions for 2010. Arizona producers began seeding their small grain crops early in the month. Steady rainfall in Texas led to improved conditions in the winter wheat crop, while excessively wet fields in Florida and Georgia caused fertilizer leaching and slowed emergence and crop growth. By month's end, emergence in Arizona's barley and Durum wheat crops had reached 75 and 95 percent, respectively. Winter wheat neared or entered the jointing stage in Georgia and Texas, while heading was evident in early planted oat, rye, and wheat fields in California. Flooding and standing water stemming from rainfall in late January and early February caused rotting in some potato fields in Florida. As a result, producers in the Hastings area remained busy replanting their fields throughout the month. Dry weather mid-month promoted the start of cabbage and spinach harvest in South Texas. As February ended, early variety almond, cherry, peach, plum, and prune trees were in full bloom in California. Crop Comments Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2009 is estimated at 30.2 million tons, of which 28.3 million tons was utilized for sugar and 1.87 million tons for seed. Total production for sugar and seed is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 9 percent from 2008. Sugarcane producers harvested 877,700 acres for sugar and seed in 2009, unchanged from February but up 1 percent from last year. Yield for sugar and seed is estimated at 34.4 tons per acre, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 2.6 tons from 2008. Production in Florida is estimated at 14.1 million tons, unchanged from February but up 6 percent from 2008. Yield in Florida is estimated at 36.1 tons per acre, unchanged from the previous forecast. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas were carried forward from January. Corn and Soybeans: Survey respondents who reported corn acreage as not yet harvested in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin and survey respondents who reported soybean acreage as not yet harvested in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia during the surveys conducted in preparation for the Crop Production 2009 Summary were re-contacted in early February to determine how many of the acres were actually harvested or still intended for harvest and to record the actual production from those acres. Based on this updated information, several changes were made to the estimates published in the Crop Production 2009 Summary. Because unharvested production is a component of on-farm stocks, changes were made to the December 1 on-farm stocks levels comparable with the production adjustments as well. Respondents with unharvested corn in North Dakota and South Dakota will be interviewed at a later date. Corn harvested area declined 10,000 acres in Michigan, but was unchanged in Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin from the Crop Production 2009 Summary. Yields in both Illinois and Minnesota decreased 1.0 bushel per acre, while yields in Michigan and Wisconsin were unchanged. As a result of these changes, corn production in the U.S. is estimated at 13.1 billion bushels, down fractionally from the previous estimate. Soybean harvested area was reduced 10,000 acres in Georgia, 20,000 acres in North Carolina, and 5,000 acres in South Carolina, but was unchanged in Virginia from the Crop Production 2009 Summary. Yields decreased 0.5 bushel per acre in South Carolina and 1.0 bushel per acre in Virginia, but were unchanged in Georgia and North Carolina. As a result of these changes, total U.S. production is estimated at 3.36 billion bushels, down slightly from the Crop Production 2009 Summary. Grapefruit: The forecast of the 2009-10 U.S. grapefruit crop is 1.16 million tons, unchanged from the February 1 forecast but down 13 percent from the 2008-09 final utilization. Florida's grapefruit production is forecast at 18.8 million boxes (799,000 tons), unchanged from the February 1 forecast but 13 percent below last season. The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 5.30 million boxes (225,000 tons), unchanged from February 1 but down 20 percent from the previous year. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 13.5 million boxes (574,000 tons), is unchanged from the February 1 forecast but 11 percent lower than last season. As of March 1, approximately 51 percent of the white grapefruit crop and 64 percent of the colored grapefruit crop had been harvested. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward from the February 1 forecast. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 900,000 boxes (41,000 tons), unchanged from the February 1 forecast but down 22 percent from last season's final production. If realized, this will be the smallest tangelo crop since 1962, when Florida experienced a damaging December freeze. Tangerines and Mandarins: The U.S. tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 511,000 tons, unchanged from the February 1 forecast but 15 percent above the 2008-09 crop. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.00 million boxes (190,000 tons), unchanged from the February 1 forecast but up 4 percent from the previous season. Arizona and California tangerine and mandarin production forecasts are carried forward from the February 1 forecast. Florida Citrus: High temperatures were in the 70 to 80 degree range all month. Low temperatures were mostly in the 30s, with some in the upper 20's. Harvesting of navel oranges was nearly finished. Harvesting of Murcott tangerines and Valencia oranges continued. Citrus bloom was observed on Valencia trees scattered throughout southern Hendry County at the end of the month. Early, midseason, late oranges and grapefruit made up the majority of fruit going to processing plants. Grove activities included harvesting, mowing, applying fertilizer, and removing brush. California Citrus: Satsuma and Clementine mandarins, navel oranges, tangerines, and grapefruit were picked in the Central Valley. The lemon harvest continued in the Desert Region. The Valencia orange crop continued to develop and regular orchard maintenance took place. California Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts: During the first part of February, trees and vines experienced increased dormancy due to cool temperatures. Maintenance work continued in vineyards and orchards. Vineyard maintenance included pruning, shredding, tying, cultivating, and applying dormant sprays, while orchard maintenance focused on pruning and herbicide applications. Blooming occurred in plum, prune, peach, and cherry trees. Stone fruit grafting took place in the San Joaquin Valley. By the end of the month, early almonds were in full bloom and late varieties were approaching half bloom. Brown rot remains a concern due to recent increased moisture levels. Most growers have applied protective sprays to limit the impact of bloom disease. Walnut trees received herbicide applications, while the harvest of nursery fruit and tree nuts continued. Reliability of March 1 Orange Forecast Survey Procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the U.S. production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating Procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision Policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 2.6 percent. However, if you exclude the 5 abnormal production seasons (3 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 2.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 2.6 percent, or 2.0 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.4 percent, or 3.5 percent when excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 215,000 tons (203,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 520,000 tons (18,000 tons to 503,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times (below 7 times and above 8 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Lance Honig, Chief........................................(202) 720-2127 Field Crops Section Jacqueline Moore, Head....................................(202) 720-2127 Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice............................(202) 720-7688 Shiela Corley - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings...................(202) 720-5944 Bryan Durham - Hay, Oats, Sorghum.........................(202) 690-3234 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed..........(202) 720-9526 Nick Schauer - Wheat, Rye.................................(202) 720-8068 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops.........(202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds......(202) 720-7369 Fruits, Vegetables & Special Crops Section Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head.................................(202) 720-2127 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries....................................(202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco.........................................(202) 720-4288 Dawn Keen - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts...............................................(202) 720-4215 Steve Maliszewski - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Tropical Fruits.........................................(202) 720-5412 Tierra Mobley - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes................................(202) 720-4285 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans...........................(202) 720-3250 Kim Ritchie - Hops........................................(360) 902-1940 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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