Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released January 12, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 2 Percent from December The United States all orange forecast for the 2010-2011 season is 8.79 million tons, down 2 percent from the December 1 forecast but 7 percent above the 2009-2010 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 140 million boxes (6.30 million tons), is down 2 percent the December 1 forecast but 5 percent above last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 67.0 million boxes (3.02 million tons), down 1 percent from December and 2 percent lower than last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 73.0 million boxes (3.29 million tons), is down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up 12 percent from the 2009-2010 crop. Several days of sub-freezing temperatures were recorded during the month of December throughout the citrus producing region of Florida. The NASS Florida Field Office will release a Citrus Freeze Damage Report on January 18. This report will be based on a special survey conducted January 10 through 11. All orange production in California is forecast at 2.42 million tons (60.5 million boxes), unchanged from the October 1 forecast but up 14 percent from last season. The California navel forecast, at 1.86 million tons (46.5 million boxes), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 17 percent from the 2009-2010 crop. Valencia oranges are forecast at 560,000 tons (14.0 million boxes), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 7 percent from last season. Wet weather and colder temperatures in December slowed the harvest. In Texas orange production is forecast at 1.64 million boxes (70,000 tons), down 3 percent from the previous forecast but up slightly from last season's final utilization. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2010-2011 season is 1.61 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from the December 1 forecast but up 3 percent from last season's final yield of 1.56 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.52 gallons per box, up 1 percent from last season's yield of 1.51 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.70 gallons per box, 4 percent higher than last year's final yield of 1.63 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on January 12, 2011. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Darci L. Vetter Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Hubert Hamer Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2009-2010 and Forecasted January 1, 2011..........................................................4 Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2009 and 2010.....5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units).........6 Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units)...............7 Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units)...........8 Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units).................9 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units).............10 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units)...............11 Percent of Normal Precipitation........................................................12 Departure from Normal Temperature......................................................12 December Weather Summary...............................................................13 December Agricultural Summary..........................................................13 Crop Comments..........................................................................13 Statistical Methodology................................................................15 Information Contacts...................................................................16 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2009-2010 and Forecasted January 1, 2011 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ : Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2009-2010 : 2010-2011 : 2009-2010 : 2010-2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 boxes ------- ------- 1,000 tons ------ Oranges : Early, mid, and navel 2/ : California .................: 42,500 46,500 1,594 1,860 Florida ....................: 68,600 67,000 3,087 3,015 Texas ......................: 1,360 1,360 58 58 : United States ..............: 112,460 114,860 4,739 4,933 : Valencia : California .................: 14,000 14,000 525 560 Florida ....................: 65,000 73,000 2,925 3,285 Texas ......................: 275 280 12 12 : United States ..............: 79,275 87,280 3,462 3,857 : All : California .................: 56,500 60,500 2,119 2,420 Florida ....................: 133,600 140,000 6,012 6,300 Texas ......................: 1,635 1,640 70 70 : United States ..............: 191,735 202,140 8,201 8,790 : Grapefruit : White : Florida ....................: 6,000 5,600 255 238 : Colored : Florida ....................: 14,300 14,000 608 595 : All : California .................: 4,200 3,500 141 140 Florida ....................: 20,300 19,600 863 833 Texas ......................: 5,600 5,700 224 228 : United States ..............: 30,100 28,800 1,228 1,201 : Tangerines and mandarins : Arizona 3/ ...................: 350 300 13 12 California 3/ ................: 9,900 9,600 371 384 Florida ......................: 4,450 4,200 211 200 : United States ................: 14,700 14,100 595 596 : Lemons : Arizona ......................: 2,200 2,500 84 100 California ...................: 20,500 21,000 779 840 : United States ................: 22,700 23,500 863 940 : Tangelos : Florida ......................: 900 1,000 41 45 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80 (75 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80 (67 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), Florida-85, Texas-80; lemons-80 (76 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), tangelos-90; tangerines and mandarins in California-80 (75 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), Florida-95. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in Florida. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2009 and 2010 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : May 1 : December 1 State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 tons : Alabama .......: 375 192 1,700 1,200 Arizona .......: 50 60 500 365 Arkansas ......: 570 340 2,900 2,050 California ....: 470 432 2,400 1,850 Colorado ......: 400 650 2,500 2,000 Connecticut ...: 9 14 71 45 Delaware ......: 4 4 29 19 Florida .......: 58 40 535 477 Georgia .......: 238 210 1,374 1,360 Idaho .........: 450 775 2,750 2,300 : Illinois ......: 300 310 1,400 1,310 Indiana .......: 185 198 1,360 1,200 Iowa ..........: 750 420 3,100 3,050 Kansas ........: 1,350 1,200 5,400 4,500 Kentucky ......: 465 1,006 4,905 4,392 Louisiana .....: 60 60 710 700 Maine .........: 18 34 134 120 Maryland ......: 111 60 350 310 Massachusetts .: 12 9 75 63 Michigan ......: 450 330 1,451 2,000 : Minnesota .....: 790 630 3,570 3,700 Mississippi ...: 214 90 1,058 1,175 Missouri ......: 2,050 1,250 8,280 6,500 Montana .......: 590 720 4,100 5,500 Nebraska ......: 935 1,000 4,490 4,700 Nevada ........: 170 310 1,012 819 New Hampshire .: 8 7 45 40 New Jersey ....: 26 46 102 110 New Mexico ....: 105 125 570 520 New York ......: 420 400 1,582 1,744 : North Carolina : 311 296 1,523 1,157 North Dakota ..: 700 1,310 5,500 5,370 Ohio ..........: 325 350 2,013 1,790 Oklahoma ......: 1,000 650 4,435 4,550 Oregon ........: 270 420 2,200 2,100 Pennsylvania ..: 700 680 2,400 1,950 Rhode Island ..: 1 2 8 8 South Carolina : 115 130 590 490 South Dakota ..: 1,900 2,190 8,290 7,850 Tennessee .....: 552 678 3,219 2,985 : Texas .........: 2,100 1,100 7,700 9,500 Utah ..........: 285 245 1,330 1,050 Vermont .......: 37 50 204 180 Virginia ......: 450 350 1,940 1,660 Washington ....: 350 280 1,418 1,607 West Virginia .: 156 125 938 790 Wisconsin .....: 950 753 3,021 3,278 Wyoming .......: 230 400 2,040 1,700 : United States .: 22,065 20,931 107,222 102,134 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 2,872 2,465 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 88,192 81,446 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 5,567 Hay, all .......................: (NA) 59,862 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 19,956 All other ....................: (NA) 39,906 Oats ...........................: 3,138 1,263 Proso millet ...................: 390 363 Rice ...........................: 3,636 3,615 Rye ............................: 1,211 265 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 5,404 4,808 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 273 Wheat, all .....................: 53,603 47,637 Winter .......................: 37,335 40,990 31,749 Durum ........................: 2,570 2,529 Other spring .................: 13,698 13,359 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1,448.8 1,431.0 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 421 418 Mustard seed ...................: 50.5 48.1 Peanuts ........................: 1,288.0 1,255.0 Rapeseed .......................: 2.3 2.2 Safflower ......................: 175.0 167.7 Soybeans for beans .............: 77,404 76,616 Sunflower ......................: 1,951.5 1,873.8 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all ....................: 10,973.2 10,706.7 Upland .......................: 10,769.0 10,505.0 American Pima ................: 204.2 201.7 Sugarbeets .....................: 1,171.4 1,155.7 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 881.2 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 337.5 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 31.2 17.9 Dry edible beans ...............: 1,911.4 1,842.7 Dry edible peas ................: 756.0 711.4 Lentils ........................: 658.0 634.0 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 6.3 Hops ...........................: (NA) 31.3 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 71.3 Potatoes, all ..................: 1,020.6 1,004.3 Spring .......................: 88.8 85.9 Summer .......................: 38.1 37.1 Fall .........................: 893.7 881.3 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 18.6 Sweet potatoes .................: 119.8 116.9 Taro (Hawaii) 2/ ...............: (NA) 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres. Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per acre : Production Crop :---------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ----- : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 73.1 180,268 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 152.8 12,446,865 Corn for silage ....................tons: 19.3 107,314 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.43 145,556 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.40 67,903 All other ........................tons: 1.95 77,653 Oats ............................bushels: 64.3 81,190 Proso millet ....................bushels: 31.8 11,535 Rice 1/ .............................cwt: 6,725 243,104 Rye .............................bushels: 28.0 7,431 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 71.8 345,395 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 12.5 3,420 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 46.4 2,208,391 Winter ........................bushels: 46.8 1,485,236 Durum .........................bushels: 42.4 107,180 Other spring ..................bushels: 46.1 615,975 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,713 2,450,947 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 6,191.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 21.7 9,056 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 870 41,861 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,311 4,155,600 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,891 4,160 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,320 221,335 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 43.5 3,329,341 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,460 2,735,570 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 1/ ....................bales: 821 18,314.5 Upland 1/ .......................bales: 814 17,817.0 American Pima 1/ ................bales: 1,184 497.5 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 27.6 31,945 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 33.5 29,535 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,133 719,786 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas 1/ .............cwt: 1,666 237 Dry edible beans 1/ .................cwt: 1,726 31,801 Dry edible peas 1/ ..................cwt: 1,999 14,221 Lentils 1/ ..........................cwt: 1,365 8,657 Wrinkled seed peas ..................cwt: (NA) 580 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ..................pounds: 1,250 7,900 Hops .............................pounds: 2,093 65,492.6 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 89 6,363 Potatoes, all .......................cwt: 395 397,077 Spring ............................cwt: 289 24,820 Summer ............................cwt: 311 11,530 Fall ..............................cwt: 409 360,727 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 125 2,318 Sweet potatoes ......................cwt: 204 23,845 Taro (Hawaii) ....................pounds: (NA) 3,900 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,162,270 997,560 Corn for grain 1/ ..............:35,690,420 32,960,380 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,252,910 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 24,225,550 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 8,075,990 All other ....................: (NA) 16,149,560 Oats ...........................: 1,269,920 511,120 Proso millet ...................: 157,830 146,900 Rice ...........................: 1,471,450 1,462,950 Rye ............................: 490,080 107,240 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,186,940 1,945,750 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 110,480 Wheat, all 2/ ..................:21,692,600 19,278,220 Winter .......................:15,109,100 16,588,240 12,848,500 Durum ........................: 1,040,050 1,023,460 Other spring .................: 5,543,440 5,406,250 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 586,310 579,110 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 170,370 169,160 Mustard seed ...................: 20,440 19,470 Peanuts ........................: 521,240 507,890 Rapeseed .......................: 930 890 Safflower ......................: 70,820 67,870 Soybeans for beans .............:31,324,620 31,005,730 Sunflower ......................: 789,750 758,310 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,440,740 4,332,890 Upland .......................: 4,358,110 4,251,270 American Pima ................: 82,640 81,630 Sugarbeets .....................: 474,050 467,700 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 356,610 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 136,560 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 12,630 7,240 Dry edible beans ...............: 773,520 745,720 Dry edible peas ................: 305,950 287,900 Lentils ........................: 266,290 256,570 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 2,550 Hops ...........................: (NA) 12,660 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 28,850 Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 413,030 406,430 Spring .......................: 35,940 34,760 Summer .......................: 15,420 15,010 Fall .........................: 361,670 356,650 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,530 Sweet potatoes .................: 48,480 47,310 Taro (Hawaii) 3/ ...............: (NA) 190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. 3/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.93 3,924,870 Corn for grain .........................: 9.59 316,164,930 Corn for silage ........................: 43.21 97,353,620 Hay, all 1/ ............................: 5.45 132,046,180 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.63 61,600,570 All other ............................: 4.36 70,445,620 Oats ...................................: 2.31 1,178,470 Proso millet ...........................: 1.78 261,610 Rice ...................................: 7.54 11,027,010 Rye ....................................: 1.76 188,760 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.51 8,773,440 Sorghum for silage .....................: 28.08 3,102,570 Wheat, all 1/ ..........................: 3.12 60,102,550 Winter ...............................: 3.15 40,421,500 Durum ................................: 2.85 2,916,960 Other spring .........................: 3.10 16,764,090 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1.92 1,111,730 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 5,616,380 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.36 230,030 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.98 18,990 Peanuts ................................: 3.71 1,884,950 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.12 1,890 Safflower ..............................: 1.48 100,400 Soybeans for beans .....................: 2.92 90,609,810 Sunflower ..............................: 1.64 1,240,830 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 1/ .........................: 0.92 3,987,510 Upland ...............................: 0.91 3,879,190 American Pima ........................: 1.33 108,320 Sugarbeets .............................: 61.96 28,980,020 Sugarcane ..............................: 75.13 26,793,700 Tobacco ................................: 2.39 326,490 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...................: 1.48 10,750 Dry edible beans .......................: 1.93 1,442,470 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.24 645,050 Lentils ................................: 1.53 392,670 Wrinkled seed peas .....................: (NA) 26,310 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ........................: 1.41 3,580 Hops ...................................: 2.35 29,710 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.10 2,890 Potatoes, all 1/ .......................: 44.32 18,011,110 Spring ...............................: 32.39 1,125,820 Summer ...............................: 34.83 522,990 Fall .................................: 45.88 16,362,300 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 1,050 Sweet potatoes .........................: 22.86 1,081,590 Taro (Hawaii) ..........................: (NA) 1,770 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Production may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2010-2011 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit .............................tons: 1,228 1,201 Lemons .................................tons: 863 940 Oranges ................................tons: 8,201 8,790 Tangelos (Florida) .....................tons: 41 45 Tangerines and mandarins ...............tons: 595 596 : Noncitrus : Apples ...............................pounds: 9,413.5 Apricots ...............................tons: 67.3 Bananas (Hawaii) .....................pounds: Grapes .................................tons: 6,875.4 Olives (California) ....................tons: 140.0 Papayas (Hawaii) .....................pounds: Peaches ................................tons: 1,126.0 Pears ..................................tons: 854.8 Prunes, dried (California) .............tons: 150.0 Prunes and plums (excludes California) .tons: 13.4 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) ........pounds: 1,650,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ...........tons: 27 Pecans, in-shell .....................pounds: 258,300 Walnuts, in-shell (California) .........tons: 510 Maple syrup .........................gallons: 1,955 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2010-2011 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ...............................: 1,114,020 1,089,530 Lemons ...................................: 782,900 852,750 Oranges ..................................: 7,439,820 7,974,150 Tangelos (Florida) .......................: 37,190 40,820 Tangerines and mandarins .................: 539,770 540,680 : Noncitrus : Apples ...................................: 4,269,890 Apricots .................................: 61,050 Bananas (Hawaii) .........................: Grapes ...................................: 6,237,260 Olives (California) ......................: 127,010 Papayas (Hawaii) .........................: Peaches ..................................: 1,021,480 Pears ....................................: 775,460 Prunes, dried (California) ...............: 136,080 Prunes and plums (excludes California) ...: 12,160 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) ............: 748,430 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .............: 24,490 Pecans, in-shell .........................: 117,160 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ...........: 462,660 Maple syrup ..............................: 9,770 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. December Weather Summary During December, two large-scale atmospheric phenomena strongly influenced weather patterns across the United States - La Niņa and a blocking high-pressure system over the northern Atlantic Ocean. The result was stormy weather in the western and north-central United States, along with drier-than-normal conditions from the central and southern Plains into the Southeast. In addition, the North Atlantic block displaced cold air southward, locking frigid air into place across the Southeast. In contrast, mild weather accompanied the western storminess. Western storms were most intense from central and southern California to the western slopes of the central Rockies. In those areas, heavy precipitation bolstered high-elevation snow packs and improved water-supply prospects, but also caused flash flooding and mudslides. Meanwhile, little precipitation fell from southern sections of Arizona and New Mexico to the central and southern Plains. Between November 28 and January 2, the portion of the winter wheat crop rated in very poor to poor condition climbed from 25 to 33 percent in Kansas and from 8 to 19 percent in Oklahoma. On the northern Plains, however, a well-established snow cover helped to protect winter wheat from periodic weather extremes. Farther east, record-setting snowfall accumulated in the upper Midwest, while cold but relatively benign weather covered the central and eastern Corn Belt. The upper Midwestern snow and cold maintained stress on livestock and hampered rural travel. The Northeast also experienced several episodes of bad weather, with a post-holiday storm causing major travel disruptions. Elsewhere, multiple freezes struck Florida's winter agricultural region, causing extensive damage to vegetables and requiring growers to employ a variety measures in an effort to protect citrus, sugarcane, strawberries, ornamentals, and nursery crops. December temperatures were the lowest on record in dozens of communities in Florida and elsewhere in the Southeast, eclipsing standards that had been mostly set in 1935, 1963, or 1989. December Agricultural Summary With the exception of portions of New England and the Great Lakes region, temperatures east of the Great Plains were cooler than normal during December. Most notably, average recordings across much of Florida fell to as many as 12 degrees below normal, where hard freezes and frosts throughout the month damaged unharvested sugarcane and winter vegetables and left producers scrambling to rapidly harvest as much of their crops as possible before they lost them entirely. Elsewhere, unseasonably dry conditions on the central and southern Great Plains limited the amount of snow cover and available soil moisture in many winter wheat fields, leaving producers concerned about the crop's vulnerability to wind and freeze damage. Similarly, dry conditions in portions of the Southeast hampered the establishment of small grains. Areas west of the Rocky Mountains received above average precipitation during the month. In California, a steady series of strong winter storms inundated the State with rain and snow totaling more than 800 percent of normal in some areas, triggering widespread flooding and mudslides, but boosting high-elevation snow packs. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The 2010-2011 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.20 million tons, virtually unchanged from the December 1 forecast but down 2 percent from the 2009-2010 crop. Florida grapefruit production is forecast at 19.6 million boxes (833,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 3 percent from last season. The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 5.60 million boxes (238,000 tons), down 7 percent from the 2009-2010 season. White grapefruit droppage is expected to be above average. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 14.0 million boxes (595,000 tons), is 2 percent below last season. Texas grapefruit production is forecast at 5.70 million boxes, up 4 percent from the October 1 forecast and up 2 percent from last season. Grapefruit production in California is forecast at 140,000 tons (3.50 million boxes), down 8 percent from the previous forecast and down 1 percent from the 2009-2010 season. Lemons: The forecast for the 2010-2011 United States lemon crop is 940,000 tons, down 1 percent from the October 1 forecast but up 9 percent from the 2009-2010 final utilization. California production is forecast at 840,000 tons (21.0 million boxes), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 8 percent from last season. Harvest of the new season crop continued in the Desert Region as well as the San Joaquin Valley. Lemon production in Arizona is forecast at 100,000 tons (2.50 million boxes), down 7 percent from the October 1 forecast but up 19 percent from last season. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.00 million boxes (45,000 tons), down 9 percent from the December 1 forecast but up 11 percent from last season's final utilization. The drop rate is expected to be the lowest on record. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 596,000 tons, down 4 percent from the December 1 forecast and virtually unchanged from the 2009-2010 crop. The California tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 384,000 tons (9.60 million boxes), down 4 percent from the October 1 forecast but up 4 percent from last season. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.20 million boxes (200,000 tons), down 5 percent from the previous forecast and down 6 percent from the previous season. Arizona's tangerine and mandarin forecast is 12,000 tons (300,000 boxes), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 8 percent from the 2009-2010 final utilization. Florida citrus: Rainfall was scattered and sparse, with only one report of precipitation exceeding an inch in the citrus growing region. High temperatures ranged from the 40s to the 80s. Two major cold fronts brought lows down into the teens and twenties in some areas. Freeze damage surveys will take place to determine tree condition following these events. Drought conditions were predominant across the entire citrus producing region, with the most severe being reported by growers in Indian River, Brevard, and St. Lucie Counties. Grove practices included fertilizer applications, lime applications, and irrigation. Caretakers continued to survey groves for greening, treat trees for the citrus psyllid, and remove infected trees. Arizona citrus: A few of the citrus growing areas experienced colder weather the last week of December, however the crop seemed to escape any damage. The size and quality of the State's citrus crops were normal. California citrus: The navel orange, mandarin, grapefruit and lemon harvests continued in the San Joaquin Valley at a slower pace due to wet conditions. Lemon and pummelo harvests continued in the Desert Region. California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Pruning and other maintenance continued in orchards and vineyards as conditions permitted due to ongoing wet weather. The fall grape harvest came to an end across the State. The olive harvest continued. Bareroot blueberry, raspberry, and boysenberry plants were shipped from Tulare County to in-state and out-of-state growers. Kiwifruit, as well as fruit and nut nursery plants, continued to be transplanted in Sutter County. Almond pruning and orchard removal were underway in the Central Valley. Orchard maintenance took place as field conditions allowed. Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on farms December 1, 2010 totaled 102 million tons, down 5 percent from a year ago. Disappearance from May-December 2010 totaled 64.4 million tons, compared with 62.5 million tons for the same period a year ago. Compared with December 1, 2009, hay stocks decreased in most of the States. Stock decreases in many areas were attributed to lower production and cattle producers feeding hay earlier than normal due to dry conditions. Stocks in Connecticut and Delaware showed the largest decreases at 37 and 34 percent, respectively. Only 11 States had higher hay stock levels from last year. The greatest hay stock percentage increases occurred in Michigan and Montana where hay production also increased for 2010. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 3.5 percent. However, if you exclude the 4 abnormal production years (2 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.5 percent, or 3.4 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.0 percent, or 5.9 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 313,000 tons (314,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 5,000 tons to 638,000 tons (5,000 tons to 638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 6 times and above 14 times (below 6 times and above 10 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch............................................. (202) 720-2127 Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section.................................. (202) 720-2127 Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice.......................................... (202) 720-7688 Bryan Durham - Hay, Oats................................................ (202) 690-3234 Steve Maliszewski - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.................... (202) 720-5944 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed........................ (202) 720-9526 Nick Schauer - Wheat, Rye............................................... (202) 720-8068 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops....................... (202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.................... (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section...... (202) 720-2127 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.. (202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ....... (202) 720-4288 Dawn Keen - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts .............. (202) 720-4215 Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Tropical Fruits........... (202) 720-5412 Tierra Mobley - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ......... (202) 720-4285 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mints, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans .......... (202) 720-3250 Kim Ritchie - Hops...................................................... (360) 709-2400 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Receive NASS Updates" box under "Receive reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports you would like to receive. Printed reports may be purchased from the National Technical Information Service (NTIS) by calling toll-free (800) 999-6779, or (703) 605-6220 if calling from outside the United States or Canada. Accepted methods of payment are Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, political beliefs, genetic information, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Stop 9410, Washington, DC 20250-9410, or call toll-free at (866) 632-9992 (English) or (800) 877-8339 (TDD) or (866) 377- 8642 (English Federal-relay) or (800) 845-6136 (Spanish Federal-relay). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.