Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released February 9, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 1 Percent from January The United States all orange forecast for the 2010-2011 season is 8.70 million tons, down 1 percent from the January 1 forecast but 6 percent above the 2009-2010 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 138 million boxes (6.21 million tons), is down 1 percent from the January 1 forecast but 3 percent above last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 66.0 million boxes (2.97 million tons), down 1 percent from January and 4 percent lower than last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 72.0 million boxes (3.24 million tons), is down 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 11 percent from the 2009-2010 crop. Fruit size and droppage are projected to be below average. California and Texas forecasts are carried forward from January. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2010-2011 season is 1.57 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 2 percent from the January 1 forecast but up 1 percent from last season's final yield of 1.56 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.50 gallons per box, down 1 percent from last season's yield of 1.51 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.64 gallons per box, 1 percent higher than last year's final yield of 1.63 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on February 9, 2011. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Joseph W. Glauber Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Hubert Hamer Contents Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2009 and 2010 4 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2009-2010 and Forecasted February 1, 2011 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) 6 Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) 7 Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) 8 Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) 9 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) 10 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation 12 Departure from Normal Temperature 12 January Weather Summary 13 January Agricultural Summary 13 Crop Comments 13 Statistical Methodology 15 Information Contacts 16 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2009 and 2010 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons -- : For sugar : Florida ......................: 370.0 376.0 35.9 32.7 13,283 12,295 Hawaii 2/ ....................: 20.3 15.7 65.6 76.3 1,332 1,198 Louisiana 2/ .................: 390.0 390.0 32.2 29.0 12,558 11,310 Texas 2/ .....................: 36.7 49.0 36.0 33.0 1,321 1,617 : United States ................: 817.0 830.7 34.9 31.8 28,494 26,420 : For seed : Florida ......................: 17.0 17.0 38.6 38.4 656 653 Hawaii 2/ ....................: 1.9 1.5 26.3 30.0 50 45 Louisiana 2/ .................: 35.0 30.0 32.2 29.0 1,127 870 Texas 2/ .....................: 3.0 3.0 35.0 33.0 105 99 : United States ................: 56.9 51.5 34.1 32.4 1,938 1,667 : For sugar and seed : Florida ......................: 387.0 393.0 36.0 32.9 13,939 12,948 Hawaii 2/ ....................: 22.2 17.2 62.3 72.3 1,382 1,243 Louisiana 2/ .................: 425.0 420.0 32.2 29.0 13,685 12,180 Texas 2/ .....................: 39.7 52.0 35.9 33.0 1,426 1,716 : United States ................: 873.9 882.2 34.8 31.8 30,432 28,087 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2010 Summary" released January 12, 2011. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2009-2010 and Forecasted February 1, 2011 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ : Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2009-2010 : 2010-2011 : 2009-2010 : 2010-2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 boxes ------- ------- 1,000 tons ------ Oranges : Early, mid, and navel 2/ : California 3/ ..............: 42,500 46,500 1,594 1,860 Florida ....................: 68,600 66,000 3,087 2,970 Texas 3/ ...................: 1,360 1,360 58 58 : United States ..............: 112,460 113,860 4,739 4,888 : Valencia : California 3/ ..............: 14,000 14,000 525 560 Florida ....................: 65,000 72,000 2,925 3,240 Texas 3/ ...................: 275 280 12 12 : United States ..............: 79,275 86,280 3,462 3,812 : All : California 3/ ..............: 56,500 60,500 2,119 2,420 Florida ....................: 133,600 138,000 6,012 6,210 Texas 3/ ...................: 1,635 1,640 70 70 : United States ..............: 191,735 200,140 8,201 8,700 : Grapefruit : White : Florida ....................: 6,000 5,600 255 238 : Colored : Florida ....................: 14,300 14,000 608 595 : All : California 3/ ..............: 4,200 3,500 141 140 Florida ....................: 20,300 19,600 863 833 Texas 3/ ...................: 5,600 5,700 224 228 : United States ..............: 30,100 28,800 1,228 1,201 : Tangerines and mandarins : Arizona 3/ 4/ ................: 350 300 13 12 California 3/ 4/ .............: 9,900 9,600 371 384 Florida ......................: 4,450 4,400 211 209 : United States ................: 14,700 14,300 595 605 : Lemons 3/ : Arizona ......................: 2,200 2,500 84 100 California ...................: 20,500 21,000 779 840 : United States ................: 22,700 23,500 863 940 : Tangelos : Florida ......................: 900 1,000 41 45 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80 (75 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80 (67 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), Florida-85, Texas-80; lemons-80 (76 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), tangelos-90; tangerines and mandarins in Arizona and California-80 (75 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), Florida-95. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in Florida. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 2,872 2,465 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 88,192 81,446 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 5,567 Hay, all .......................: (NA) 59,862 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 19,956 All other ....................: (NA) 39,906 Oats ...........................: 3,138 1,263 Proso millet ...................: 390 363 Rice ...........................: 3,636 3,615 Rye ............................: 1,211 265 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 5,404 4,808 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 273 Wheat, all .....................: 53,603 47,637 Winter .......................: 37,335 40,990 31,749 Durum ........................: 2,570 2,529 Other spring .................: 13,698 13,359 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1,448.8 1,431.0 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 421 418 Mustard seed ...................: 50.5 48.1 Peanuts ........................: 1,288.0 1,255.0 Rapeseed .......................: 2.3 2.2 Safflower ......................: 175.0 167.7 Soybeans for beans .............: 77,404 76,616 Sunflower ......................: 1,951.5 1,873.8 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all ....................: 10,973.2 10,706.7 Upland .......................: 10,769.0 10,505.0 American Pima ................: 204.2 201.7 Sugarbeets .....................: 1,171.4 1,155.7 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 882.2 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 337.5 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 31.2 17.9 Dry edible beans ...............: 1,911.4 1,842.7 Dry edible peas ................: 756.0 711.4 Lentils ........................: 658.0 634.0 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 6.3 Hops ...........................: (NA) 31.3 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 71.3 Potatoes, all ..................: 1,020.6 1,004.3 Spring .......................: 88.8 85.9 Summer .......................: 38.1 37.1 Fall .........................: 893.7 881.3 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 18.6 Sweet potatoes .................: 119.8 116.9 Taro (Hawaii) 2/ ...............: (NA) 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres. Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per acre : Production Crop :---------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ----- : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 73.1 180,268 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 152.8 12,446,865 Corn for silage ....................tons: 19.3 107,314 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.43 145,556 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.40 67,903 All other ........................tons: 1.95 77,653 Oats ............................bushels: 64.3 81,190 Proso millet ....................bushels: 31.8 11,535 Rice 1/ .............................cwt: 6,725 243,104 Rye .............................bushels: 28.0 7,431 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 71.8 345,395 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 12.5 3,420 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 46.4 2,208,391 Winter ........................bushels: 46.8 1,485,236 Durum .........................bushels: 42.4 107,180 Other spring ..................bushels: 46.1 615,975 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,713 2,450,947 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 6,191.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 21.7 9,056 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 870 41,861 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,311 4,155,600 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,891 4,160 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,320 221,335 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 43.5 3,329,341 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,460 2,735,570 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 1/ ....................bales: 821 18,314.5 Upland 1/ .......................bales: 814 17,817.0 American Pima 1/ ................bales: 1,184 497.5 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 27.6 31,945 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 31.8 28,087 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,133 719,786 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas 1/ .............cwt: 1,666 237 Dry edible beans 1/ .................cwt: 1,726 31,801 Dry edible peas 1/ ..................cwt: 1,999 14,221 Lentils 1/ ..........................cwt: 1,365 8,657 Wrinkled seed peas ..................cwt: (NA) 580 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ..................pounds: 1,250 7,900 Hops .............................pounds: 2,093 65,492.6 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 89 6,363 Potatoes, all .......................cwt: 395 397,077 Spring ............................cwt: 289 24,820 Summer ............................cwt: 311 11,530 Fall ..............................cwt: 409 360,727 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 125 2,318 Sweet potatoes ......................cwt: 204 23,845 Taro (Hawaii) ....................pounds: (NA) 3,900 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,162,270 997,560 Corn for grain 1/ ..............:35,690,420 32,960,380 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,252,910 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 24,225,550 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 8,075,990 All other ....................: (NA) 16,149,560 Oats ...........................: 1,269,920 511,120 Proso millet ...................: 157,830 146,900 Rice ...........................: 1,471,450 1,462,950 Rye ............................: 490,080 107,240 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,186,940 1,945,750 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 110,480 Wheat, all 2/ ..................:21,692,600 19,278,220 Winter .......................:15,109,100 16,588,240 12,848,500 Durum ........................: 1,040,050 1,023,460 Other spring .................: 5,543,440 5,406,250 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 586,310 579,110 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 170,370 169,160 Mustard seed ...................: 20,440 19,470 Peanuts ........................: 521,240 507,890 Rapeseed .......................: 930 890 Safflower ......................: 70,820 67,870 Soybeans for beans .............:31,324,620 31,005,730 Sunflower ......................: 789,750 758,310 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,440,740 4,332,890 Upland .......................: 4,358,110 4,251,270 American Pima ................: 82,640 81,630 Sugarbeets .....................: 474,050 467,700 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 357,020 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 136,560 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 12,630 7,240 Dry edible beans ...............: 773,520 745,720 Dry edible peas ................: 305,950 287,900 Lentils ........................: 266,290 256,570 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 2,550 Hops ...........................: (NA) 12,660 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 28,850 Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 413,030 406,430 Spring .......................: 35,940 34,760 Summer .......................: 15,420 15,010 Fall .........................: 361,670 356,650 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,530 Sweet potatoes .................: 48,480 47,310 Taro (Hawaii) 3/ ...............: (NA) 190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. 3/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.93 3,924,870 Corn for grain .........................: 9.59 316,164,930 Corn for silage ........................: 43.21 97,353,620 Hay, all 1/ ............................: 5.45 132,046,180 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.63 61,600,570 All other ............................: 4.36 70,445,620 Oats ...................................: 2.31 1,178,470 Proso millet ...........................: 1.78 261,610 Rice ...................................: 7.54 11,027,010 Rye ....................................: 1.76 188,760 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.51 8,773,440 Sorghum for silage .....................: 28.08 3,102,570 Wheat, all 1/ ..........................: 3.12 60,102,550 Winter ...............................: 3.15 40,421,500 Durum ................................: 2.85 2,916,960 Other spring .........................: 3.10 16,764,090 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1.92 1,111,730 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 5,616,380 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.36 230,030 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.98 18,990 Peanuts ................................: 3.71 1,884,950 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.12 1,890 Safflower ..............................: 1.48 100,400 Soybeans for beans .....................: 2.92 90,609,810 Sunflower ..............................: 1.64 1,240,830 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 1/ .........................: 0.92 3,987,510 Upland ...............................: 0.91 3,879,190 American Pima ........................: 1.33 108,320 Sugarbeets .............................: 61.96 28,980,020 Sugarcane ..............................: 71.37 25,480,100 Tobacco ................................: 2.39 326,490 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...................: 1.48 10,750 Dry edible beans .......................: 1.93 1,442,470 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.24 645,050 Lentils ................................: 1.53 392,670 Wrinkled seed peas .....................: (NA) 26,310 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ........................: 1.41 3,580 Hops ...................................: 2.35 29,710 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.10 2,890 Potatoes, all 1/ .......................: 44.32 18,011,110 Spring ...............................: 32.39 1,125,820 Summer ...............................: 34.83 522,990 Fall .................................: 45.88 16,362,300 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 1,050 Sweet potatoes .........................: 22.86 1,081,590 Taro (Hawaii) ..........................: (NA) 1,770 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Production may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2010-2011 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit .............................tons: 1,228 1,201 Lemons .................................tons: 863 940 Oranges ................................tons: 8,201 8,700 Tangelos (Florida) .....................tons: 41 45 Tangerines and mandarins ...............tons: 595 605 : Noncitrus : Apples ...............................pounds: 9,286.6 Apricots ...............................tons: 65.5 Bananas (Hawaii) .....................pounds: 20,900 Grapes .................................tons: 6,856.8 Olives (California) ....................tons: 190.0 Papayas (Hawaii) .....................pounds: 27,500 Peaches ................................tons: 1,151.3 Pears ..................................tons: 807.6 Prunes, dried (California) .............tons: 125.0 Prunes and plums (excludes California) .tons: 12.3 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) ........pounds: 1,650,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ...........tons: 27 Pecans, in-shell .....................pounds: 259,660 Walnuts, in-shell (California) .........tons: 510 Maple syrup .........................gallons: 1,955 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2010-2011 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ...............................: 1,114,020 1,089,530 Lemons ...................................: 782,900 852,750 Oranges ..................................: 7,439,820 7,892,510 Tangelos (Florida) .......................: 37,190 40,820 Tangerines and mandarins .................: 539,770 548,850 : Noncitrus : Apples ...................................: 4,212,330 Apricots .................................: 59,400 Bananas (Hawaii) .........................: 9,480 Grapes ...................................: 6,220,360 Olives (California) ......................: 172,370 Papayas (Hawaii) .........................: 12,470 Peaches ..................................: 1,044,440 Pears ....................................: 732,640 Prunes, dried (California) ...............: 113,400 Prunes and plums (excludes California) ...: 11,160 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) ............: 748,430 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .............: 24,490 Pecans, in-shell .........................: 117,780 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ...........: 462,660 Maple syrup ..............................: 9,770 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. January Weather Summary In a dramatic change from December, little or no precipitation fell in California during January. The water content of the Sierra Nevada snow pack, which rose about 16 inches in December, increased only one inch during January. The dry regime also stretched eastward into the Four Corners States. Farther north, warmth and melting snow accompanied a period of heavy precipitation from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies, leading to some flooding. Farther east, frequent snowfall blanketed the northern Plains and the upper Midwest, insulating winter grains but hampering rural travel and stressing livestock. In contrast, drought continued to expand and intensify across the southern half of the Plains. From November 28 to January 30, the portion of the winter wheat crop rated in very poor to poor condition increased from 26 to 52 percent in Texas, 8 to 40 percent in Oklahoma, and 25 to 37 percent in Kansas. Elsewhere, January precipitation was generally below average across the South and East. Exceptions included Florida's peninsula and southern and eastern Texas, which received drought-easing rainfall, and the northern Atlantic region, which experienced record-setting snowfall. Despite frequent January showers across the South, long-term drought remained a concern in many areas. Colder than normal weather dominated the eastern half of the Nation during January, while near to above normal temperatures covered most areas from the High Plains westward. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit below normal in parts of the southern Atlantic region and a few locations in the upper Midwest. January Agricultural Summary With the exception of portions of New England, temperatures east of the Great Plains were near to below average during January. Most notably, locations in the northern Great Plains and Southeast recorded temperatures that dipped to as many as 8 degrees below normal. In contrast, much of the Great Basin, Pacific Northwest, and northern Rocky Mountains experienced warmer than normal temperatures. Precipitation totals varied drastically from one region to another, with the northern Great Plains, southern Texas, and central Florida accumulating snow and rain totaling 200 percent or more above normal. A series of winter storms brought hard freezes and frosts to much of Florida during the month, negatively impacting the State's winter vegetable, strawberry, and sugarcane crops. With producers harvesting when the first cold spell hit, growth of the 2010 sugarcane crop was halted and some cane that was to be used for replanting next season was destroyed. Following the freeze, producers quickly harvested their remaining crop in hopes of limiting deterioration and sucrose loss. Similarly, yield and quality were decreased in many vegetable crops, leaving market movement below normal throughout the month. Elsewhere, unusually wet weather fell on portions of California during the first week of the month, slowing fieldwork and causing yellowing and water stress in some low-lying wheat fields. In the San Joaquin Valley, harvest of citrus crops slowed mid to late month due to inconsistent sizing and quality. As vegetable fields and orchard floors began to dry out toward month's end, producers resumed planting, maintenance, and harvest activities. Producers in several States were busy cultivating, fertilizing, and irrigating fields in preparation for spring planting. While vegetable producers in Arizona continued to ship a variety of crops throughout the month, cotton and alfalfa hay harvest activities were winding down toward month's end. On the central Plains, portions of the winter wheat crop were left vulnerable to wind and freeze damage because of limited snow cover and dry soil conditions. Crop Comments Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2010 is forecast at 28.1 million tons, of which 26.4 million tons will be utilized for sugar and 1.67 million tons for seed. Total production for sugar and seed is down 5 percent from the previous forecast and down 8 percent from 2009. Producers expect to harvest 882,200 acres for sugar and seed for the 2010 crop year, up 1,000 acres from January and 8,300 acres from the previous year. Expected yield is forecast at 31.8 tons per acre, down 1.7 tons from the previous forecast and 3.0 tons from 2009. Production in Florida is forecast at 12.9 million tons, down 10 percent from January and down 7 percent from last year. Hard freezes in late December and January negatively impacted the sugarcane crop in the Everglades region of Florida, leaving portions of some seed cane fields unsalvageable while reducing yields in others. As a result, sugar and seed yield is forecast at 32.9 tons per acre, down 3.8 tons from January and down 3.1 tons from 2009. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas were carried forward from January. Grapefruit: The 2010-2011 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.20 million tons, unchanged from the January 1 forecast but down 2 percent from the 2009-2010 crop. Florida grapefruit production is forecast at 19.6 million boxes (833,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 3 percent from last season. The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 5.60 million boxes (238,000 tons), down 7 percent from the 2009-2010 season. White grapefruit droppage is expected to be slightly above average. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 14.0 million boxes (595,000 tons), is 2 percent below last season. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward from the January 1 forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 605,000 tons, up 2 percent from both the January 1 forecast and the 2009-2010 crop. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.40 million boxes (209,000 tons), up 5 percent from the previous forecast but down 1 percent from the previous season. Arizona and California tangerine and mandarin production forecasts are carried forward from the January 1 forecast. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.00 million boxes (45,000 tons), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but up 11 percent from last season's final utilization. Florida citrus: In the citrus growing areas, temperatures were predominantly in the 70s during the month. Weather stations reported lows in the 30s and highs in the 80 degree range. Drought conditions worsened during the first part of the month, however rainfall during the latter part lessened the drought conditions in many counties. Harvesting of Murcott and Sunburst tangerines continued, while harvesting of Navel oranges was winding down. Harvesting of grapefruit and early and midseason oranges continued on schedule. Almost all of the processing plants have opened. Early and midseason oranges and grapefruit made up the majority of fruit going to the plants. Heavy irrigation and harvesting dominated the grove activities this month. California citrus: The navel orange, mandarin, lemon, pummelo, and grapefruit harvests continued in the San Joaquin Valley. Lemons and grapefruit were also picked in the desert region. Fruit and nut nursery stock plants continued to be prepared for sale in Sutter County. Cool, overcast weather kept orchard floors from drying, which slowed weed and soil pest treatments. California noncitrus fruits and nuts: New grape vineyards were being planted in Fresno County, while herbicides were applied in Napa County vineyards. Some young strawberry fields along the Central Coast suffered from Anthomyiid and Sciarid fly infestations. Blueberry and raspberry plants arrived from out-of-state for transplanting. With the exception of citrus and avocado, fruit trees, vines, and nut trees were in dormancy for the winter. Dormant orchards and vineyards continued to be pruned and sprayed as part of their off-season maintenance. Almond pruning and orchard removal was ongoing in the Central Valley as field conditions allowed. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision policy: The February 1 production forecast will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 3.4 percent. However, if you exclude the 4 abnormal production years (2 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.2 percent. This means chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.4 percent, or 3.2 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.9 percent, or 5.5 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 312,000 tons (302,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 638,000 tons (18,000 tons to 638,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 7 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply the February 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch............................................. (202) 720-2127 Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section.................................. (202) 720-2127 Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice.......................................... (202) 720-7688 Bryan Durham - Hay, Oats................................................ (202) 690-3234 Steve Maliszewski - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.................... (202) 720-5944 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed........................ (202) 720-9526 Nick Schauer - Wheat, Rye............................................... (202) 720-8068 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops....................... (202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.................... (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section...... (202) 720-2127 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.. (202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ....... (202) 720-4288 Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts .... (202) 720-2127 Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Tropical Fruits........... (202) 720-2127 Tierra Mobley - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ......... (202) 720-4285 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mints, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans .......... (202) 720-3250 Kim Ritchie - Hops...................................................... (360) 709-2400 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Receive NASS Updates" box under "Receive reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports you would like to receive. Printed reports may be purchased from the National Technical Information Service (NTIS) by calling toll-free (800) 999-6779, or (703) 605-6220 if calling from outside the United States or Canada. Accepted methods of payment are Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 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